The Quest for Distributive Justice in the Nile River Basin:The Nile Basin Initiative and Ethiopian Water Security

Humanitarian Aid in Complex EmergenciesJosef Korbel School of International Studies

Winter Quarter 2010Crystal Edmunds

Water is, and will remain, the most contentious natural resource issue of the 21st century.International watersheds account for about 60 percent of the world's freshwater supply and arehome to approximately 40 percent of the world's population1. Some 261 of the world's rivers are shared by two or more countries2. As early as the mid-1980s United States government intelligence services estimated that there were at least 10 places in the world where war could break out over shared water3. Exacerbating scare resources is population growth; since 1950, the renewable supply per person has fallen 58 percent as world population has increased from 2.5 billion to 6 billion. By 2015, nearly 3 billion people—40 percent of the projected world population-- are expected to live in countries that find it difficult or impossible to mobilize enough water to satisfy the food, industrial, and domestic needs of their citizens4. In order to ensure water security, cooperation among citizens, countries, regions and continents is vital. History shows substantial efforts of cooperation; from 805 to 1984, countries have signed more than 3,600 water-related treaties5. Further, the overarching lesson gathered from the basins of the Jordan, the Nile, and the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and other regions of water dispute is not that worsening scarcity will lead inevitably to water wars. It is rather that unilateral actions to engage in a water development initiatives in the absence of a treaty or institutional mechanism that safeguards the interests of other countries in the basin is the most destabilizing, often spurring hostility before cooperation is pursued6. The way the Nile is managed in coming decades will have worldwide implications7.

THE NILE BASINThe Nile basin, home to about 300 million people in 10 African countries, or 40 percent ofAfrica's population, has some of the world's worst poverty, hunger and land degradation. With

1 Postel, Sandra L. and Aaron T. Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, Sept. 2001.<http://www.irisprojects.umd.edu/ppc_ideas/ebulletin/issue7_pdf/dehydrating_conflict.pdf>.2 Ibid.3 Starr, J. R., 1991. Water wars . Foreign Policy Vol. 82 (Spring 1991) :17-36.4 Postel, Sandra L. and Aaron T. Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, Sept. 2001.<http://www.irisprojects.umd.edu/ppc_ideas/ebulletin/issue7_pdf/dehydrating_conflict.pdf>.5 Postel, Sandra L. and Aaron T. Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, Sept. 2001.<http://www.irisprojects.umd.edu/ppc_ideas/ebulletin/issue7_pdf/dehydrating_conflict.pdf>.6 World Summit on Sustainable Development, 2001 <http://www.johannesburgsummit.org/html/basic_info/basicinfo.html>.7 Terje Tvedt, The River Nile In The Post-Colonial Age, 2010.

its population expected to nearly double in 25 years, water security will become more crucial.The area has long been one of the most contentious in Africa, convulsing with wars and acts ofterrorism8. Eight of the ten countries of the Nile Basin are categorized among the 47 "least developed countries" (Sustainable Development and International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin). Struggle over the Nile Waters has had global political consequences in the past and could fan existing conflicts in the Horn of Africa and Somalia, threaten the peace agreements in Sudan, and influence the power balance in the Middle East. Generally, a country is considered to be absolutely water scarce if it has less than 500 cubic meters per capita per annum, as chronically water scarce with 500-1000 cubic meters per capita per year, and as water stressed with 1000-1700 cubic meters per person per year. Egypt, Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi fall in the category of 'chronically water scarce' countries while Kenya is classified as 'water stressed." Even though Ethiopia does not fit these rankings, they do not take into account seasonal or geographic differences-- nor the distribution of water resources within a country. (Sustainable Development and International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin)

The waters of the Eastern Nile Basin mainly encompass Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, while asmall section of the River Tekeze touches on Eritrea near the Ethiopian-Sudanese border.Historically, the Nile Riparian states have pursued unilateral and conflicting approaches to theutilization of the shared water resources. Throughout the 20th century, the downstreamcountries, Egypt and Sudan, have claimed monopoly of the Nile waters based on an 'historicaland natural rights' doctrine. The downstream countries have used various technical, political,and military means with the purported aim securing a stable supply of water which originatesoutside their borders. (Ethiopia and the Eastern Nile Basin)

Worldwide, agriculture accounts for two thirds of water use worldwide, and 80 to 90 percentin many developing countries (Dehydrating Conflict). More than 86 percent of the water in theEastern Nile Basin is used for agriculture (Sustainable Development and InternationalCooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin). The FAO estimated that the amount of irrigable land inthe Nile Basin is greater than the amount of water available in the Basin (Development andCooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin). The International Water Management Institute

8 Thurow, Roger. Ethiopia Finally Gets Help From the Nile. Wall Street Journal. 2004.<http://www.tecolahagos.com/ethiopia_finally.htm>.

estimates that 50 percent of the total increase in world water demand could be satisfied by theyear 2025 through increased efficiency in irrigated agriculture (Sustainable Development andInternational Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin). The potential to develop hydro-electricpower in the Nile Basin is enormous; only 1 percent of the estimated potential has so far beenrealized (Sustainable Development and International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin).The greatest development potential, because of the great differences in altitude, about 58percent of the total in the Nile Basin, is located in Ethiopia (Sustainable Development andInternational Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin). All the countries in the Nile Basin haveagriculture-based economies, a sector which consumes far more water than other economicactivities-- thus water will forms the foundation of their economies. The agricultural sector willcontinue to underpin economic policy in the Nilotic countries as they struggle to meet the needsof their growing populations. (The Nile River Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Not EnoughBroth).

According to Thomas Homer-Dixon, whose work has catalyzed research into environmentallyinduced conflict, "conflict is most probable when a downstream riparian- a river-borderingstate- is highly dependent on river water and is strong in comparison to upstream riparians." Onthe basis of this argument, Homer-Dixon concludes that the Nile Basin is one of the fewinternational rivers that has the potential to provoke armed conflict between its ripariannations- the ten countries that share the basin. (The Nile River Basin Initiative: Too ManyCooks, Not Enough Broth) The 4,160 mile Nile is the second longest river in the world, withgreat potential for social-economic development, but currently, most of the people who live inits basin are not benefitting from its possible applications in irrigation to boost modern farming.(Who Owns the Nile? AllAfrica.com). Dr. Callist Tindimugaya, a commissioner for waterregulation in Uganda's Ministry of Water and Environment, said "Outside Egypt, only 10 percent of the Nile basin's hydropower potential has been tapped. He added, "Within the Nile basin,

only 15 per cent of the population is served by electricity while only 40 percent of the irrigableland has been irrigated," Dr Tindimugaya said. (Development of an Effective Nile BasinDialogue).

GEOPOLITICS OF THE NILEThe history of the Nile basin in the age of the British is one of water wars, of hydropolitics on agrand scale, and of a river empire-stretching from the Mediterranean top the heart of Africa.(Terje Tvedt, The River Nile In The Post-Colonial Age, 2010) Characterizing the legacy of thecolonial water agreements, Kinfe Abraham, former President of the Ethiopian InternationalInstitute for Peace and Development and former President of Horn of Africa Democracy andDevelopment. has said that, "after colonizing Egypt in 1882 Sudan, Kenya and Uganda in thelast decade of the 19th century, Britain through political and legal maneuvers tried to ensure theunobstructed and continuous flow of the Nile River to Egypt. (Common Goods and the commongood: Transboundary natural resources, principled cooperation, and the Nile Basin Initiative)All the treaties emphasize the colonialists' unilateralist position by negating the notion ofdistributive justice. These agreements fail to accommodate all of the riparian countries of thebasin. They are isolationist, reflecting the then colonial policy of "divide and rule." For strategicand economic reasons, these treaties were drafted to favor the British colonial interests in Egyptand Sudan.(Common Goods and the common good: Transboundary natural resources,principled cooperation, and the Nile Basin Initiative). Throughout the post-colonial period,Egypt has been by far the most important actor on the Nile, and has benefited the most. (TerjeTvedt, The River Nile In The Post-Colonial Age, 2010). During the Cold War, the Soviet Unionhelped Egypt build the Aswan High Dam to better manage the flow of the Nile. (Ethiopia FinallyGets Help From the Nile). That dam was designed to hold two years of successive Nile flows; asNasser expressed many times, it would turn Egypt into the 'Japan of Africa' (Terje Tvedt, TheRiver Nile In The Post-Colonial Age, 2010). The After Egypt shifted to the Western camp, it was

showered with hundreds of millions of dollars from the U.S. and other allied countries torehabilitate and manage its canal network. Ethiopia, which shifted its alliance from West toEast, got mainly military equipment and food aid9. The disparity of fortunes is stark. Egypt has eight million acres of land irrigated by thousands of miles of Nile canals, while Ethiopia has less than 500,000 acres of irrigated land. Although Ethiopia's highlands boast vast stretches of arable land, they must rely on the erratic rains for, at best, one crop each year. Because of its irrigation supply, Egyptian farmers can annually produce two or three harvest seasons10.

Ninety-seven percent of Egypt's water comes from the Nile River, and more than ninety-fivepercent of the Nile's runoff originates outside of Egypt, in the other eight nations of the basin:the Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zaire. (Water andConflict: Fresh Water Resources and International Security, Gleick: 1993) The fact that Ethiopiais in an upstream position to all of its transboundary rivers is in itself a major constraint todevelopment-- downstream countries, fearing negative impacts-- have used political oreconomic means to hinder Ethiopia's attempts to utilize the water resources within its ownborders. (Ethiopia and the Eastern Nile Basin). To-date, however, Ethiopia is the country in theEastern Nile basin that uses the least amount of water from the Nile run-off. Unilateral planningand implementation approaches have hindered the possibilities of cooperation and coordinateddevelopment. On the national level, economic and institutional capacities are also limited.(Ethiopia and the Eastern Nile Basin). Thus far, Ethiopia has only been able to utilize 5 percent of its total surface water, or a meager 0.6 percent of the water resources of the Nile Basin11.No water-sharing agreement has existed between Egypt and Ethiopia until the last decade, where some 85 percent of the Nile's flow originates, and a war of words has ragedbetween these two nations for decades. In spite of objections from Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopiamaintained that it had a sovereign right to develop the water resources within its borders. The

9 Thurow, Roger. Ethiopia Finally Gets Help From the Nile. Wall Street Journal. 2004.<http://www.tecolahagos.com/ethiopia_finally.htm>.10 Thurow, Roger. Ethiopia Finally Gets Help From the Nile. Wall Street Journal. 2004.<http://www.tecolahagos.com/ethiopia_finally.htm>.11 Thurow, Roger. Ethiopia Finally Gets Help From the Nile. Wall Street Journal. 2004.<http://www.tecolahagos.com/ethiopia_finally.htm>.

dispute escalated when Egypt successfully blocked the African Development Bank from assistingEthiopia financially with its proposed water development projects. (The Nile River BasinInitiative: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth). Although Egypt still uses its diplomaticinfluence to limit international support for Ethiopian projects, financial assistance fromindividual Western countries has nonetheless increased considerably in recent years. As a result,Ethiopia has grown more confident and has been able to counter successfully Egyptian andSudanese objections to its water development projects at the diplomatic level. (The Nile RiverBasin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth) As a result of World Bank pressure, Egypthas agreed to a shift in its foreign policy over the Nile water issue. Egypt's economy is in aprecarious state, the problem became more acute after the World Bank sharply reduced itslending to the country, from $550 million in 1990 to approximately $50 million in 2000. Thischanging economic landscape has practically forced its long-standing policy of defending itsdisproportionate consumption of Nile waters based on the principle of acquired rights. (The NileRiver Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth)

Ethiopia's water development plans pose the most serious threat to Egypt's water supply.Thus far, Ethiopia has only been able to irrigate 190,000 hectares of land, but estimates showthat up to 3,637,000 hectares are suitable for irrigation. Of the 110 billion cubic meters ofrenewable fresh water that originate in the Ethiopian highlands, only 3 percent remains in thecountry, whereas the rest are lost flows to the lowlands in neighboring countries. (Zewdie Abate,Water Resources Development in Ethiopia: An Evaluation of Present Experience and FuturePlanning Concepts: 1994). In 1979, President Anwar Sada declared "The only matter that couldtake Egypt to war again is water." His unveiled threat was not directed at Israel, but at Ethiopia,the upstream neighbor that controls 85 per cent of the headwaters of Egypt's life line, the Nileriver. (Water Wars) Egpyt's former foreign minister and former secretary general of the UnitedNations, Boutros Boutros Ghali, maintains that the "national security of Egypt is...a question of

water" (Water Wars). Boutros Boutros Ghali also said that "the next war in our region will beover the waters of the Nile, not politics" (Gleick, Water and Conflict: Fresh Water Resources andInternational Security, 1993).

International cooperation between Ethiopia and the downstream states of the eastern Nilewas unthinkable before the end of the Cold War. The ending of the Cold War has reshaped thebehavior of the states in the Eastern Nile Basin, accepting one another's interests (Ethiopia andthe Eastern Nile Basin). Further, since the early 1990s, Egypt has faced a major threat to itswater supply, mainly from Ethiopia. (The Nile Basin Iniative: Too Many Cooks, Not EnoughBroth). Egypt has changed its policy and diplomatic strategy: the military option is now publiclydiscarded, and has since focused on fostering cooperation and goodwill among the countries inthe basin (Hosam E. Rabie Eleman, The River Nile in the Post-Colonial Age, 2010). Forexample, fter the Sudan Peace Agreement, Egypt offered support to build up an irrigationadministration in South Sudan.

ETHIOPIAN WATER SECURITYIn the history of Ethiopia, more than 42 droughts and famines have been recorded (NMSA1996). Since the epic famine of 1984, when nearly one million people died, Ethiopia has been hitby a series of droughts and food shortages with each one threatening more people12. As the country's Minister of Water Resources Shiferaw Harso said, "The international community has to understand this, rather than just give us food handouts. This year, the U.S. gives us $500 million in food aid and it's gone within one year. People get the food, but it never brings additional value for the country. If this money goes to a power project or irrigation, it can keep on helping every year13." Increased agricultural production to meet Ethiopia's food and fiber needs can only be realized by harnessing the water resources of the Nile. Dependence on annual rainfall, which is temporally and spatially variable, has led to repeated drought and famine, as well as rampant environmental degradation in Ethiopia. (Ethiopia and the Eastern Nile River Basin).

Since the 1920s, successive Ethiopian governments have perceived the nation's water

12 Thurow, Roger. Ethiopia Finally Gets Help From the Nile. Wall Street Journal. 2004.<http://www.tecolahagos.com/ethiopia_finally.htm>.13 Thurow, Roger. Ethiopia Finally Gets Help From the Nile. Wall Street Journal. 2004.<http://www.tecolahagos.com/ethiopia_finally.htm>.

resources as a key component of economic development. The first and second five-year plans,published in 1956 and 1962 respectively, focused a lot of attention on the development ofhydroelectric power. The third five year plan (1968-1973) placed priority on developing smallhead-water streams for less expensive irrigation plans. During the military socialist regime,hydrological and meteorological services were expanded, the Ethiopian Valleys DevelopmentStudy Authority and Water Technology Institute were established, and functions of specializedinstitutions under the Ethiopian Water Resources Commission were expanded. The Ten-YearPerspective Plan (1984-1993) outlined the objectives and strategies of the country's waterresources development for the decade and beyond-- the plan earmarked 42.5 percent of thebudget for developing large and medium scale irrigation schemes and 4.5 percent forestablishing the Water Technology Institute and for expanding the national hydrological andmeteorological services.

The government is now implementing is 15-year strategic plan in the water sector(2002-2016). The immediate priorities articulated in the three phases of the plan includeexpanding irrigated agriculture to the maximum extent possible, producing hydroelectric powercommensurate with the needs of electricity in the economic and social sectors of the country,and providing water for the country's industrial development. However, despite Ethiopia's waterdevelopment strategies, the country has not yet been able to embark on an actual waterresources development program. Four main reasons may be attributed to the delay: theprotracted civil wars and political instability have derailed the nation's attention away fromdevelopment in general and water resources development in particular; Ethiopia has lacked thefinancial resources to make the costly investment in water resources development on its own;theupstream and downstream countries have viewed one another with suspicion and hostility andhave been engaged in subversive activities and proxy wars; and foreign investment could not beattracted due to the prevailing political and economic environments (Ethiopia and the EasternNile Basin).

Foreign aid accounts for 90 percent of Ethiopia’s national budget. In order to diversify anddevelop its economy, the government of Ethiopia has initiated an aggressive plan to develophydropower for export, long seen as one of the country’s few exploitable resources. The plancalls for over US$7 billion in electricity sector investments by 2015, of which 90 percent will befinanced by debt. (International Rivers, Gibe 3 Report). Ethiopia's Ministry of Water Resourcesestimates its rivers, chiefly the Blue Nile, have the potential to produce more than 15,000megawatts of power and irrigate nearly nine million acres -- if it gets the cooperation andinvestment. These dams could produce enough energy not only to supply Ethiopia's domesticdemand but also to feed into Egypt's extensive power grid for sale to users all the way up toEurope. The Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation has signed agreements with Sudan andDjibouti to export electric power14.

HISTORY OF COOPERATIVE MEASURES-The first agreement exclusively dealing with sharing and allocating the water of the Nile wassigned in 1929 between Sudan, represented at the time by Great Britain, and Egypt. Theagreement allocated forty-eight billion cubic meters of water to Egypt and four billion to Sudan.From the early 1930s Sudan gradually adopted irrigated agriculture and the demand for waterincreased. The agreement required that other countries that share waters of the River Nile toseek permission from Cairo before embarking on any large scale projects on the river. (WhoOwns the Nile River? AllAfrica.com)

-After a period of bilateral tension, negotiations resumed and a new agreement was signed inin 1959. (The Nile River Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth). By the terms of a1959 agreement, significantly called the “Treaty for the Full Utilization of the Nile,” Egypt andSudan divided the annual flow between them with 55.5 billion cubic meters going to Egypt, 18.5billion cubic meters to Sudan, and the remaining 12% allocated to surface evaporation and14 Thurow, Roger. Ethiopia Finally Gets Help From the Nile. Wall Street Journal. 2004.<http://www.tecolahagos.com/ethiopia_finally.htm>.

seepage at the Aswan High Dam reservoir (Playing Chicken on the Nile! The Implications ofMicrodam Development in the Ethiopian Highlands and Egypt's New Valley Project). Further,since the mid 1980s, Sudan has been planning its own water development schemes to supportan increase in food production. The country has been studying the possibility of introducing anew irrigation system which could raise demand for river water, by as much as ten billion cubicmeters annually. (The Nile River Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth)

-In 1967, Egypt, Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda launched the Hydromet Project (theIntergovernmental Committee for the hydro-meteorological survey of Lake Victoria, Kyoga, andLake Albert) with the assistance of the United Nations Development Program and the WorldMeteorological Organization. The purpose of the project was to evaluate the water balance of theLake Victoria catchment area in order to assist in regulating the water level of the lake and thewater flow of the Nile. (The Nile River Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth) Italso envisaged laying the groundwork for intergovernmental cooperation in the storage,regulation and use of the Nile waters. (Common Goods and the common good: Transboundarynatural resources, principled cooperation, and the Nile Basin Initiative). The project lasted 25years, but did not include Ethiopia.

-Undugu, or Brotherhood in Swahili, was launched by Egypt, Sudan, Uganda, the DRCC andthe Central African Republic in 1983. The wide ranging but general objectives includedconsultation on infrastructure, culture, environment, telecommunications, energy, trade, andwater resources. The brotherhood was not framed to address the real issues of concern toEthiopia-- the utilization and management of the Nile Waters. Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia were'observers' (Ethiopia and the Eastern Nile Basin).

-As Hydromet ended, the Technical Committee for Promotion of the Development andEnvironmental Protection of the Nile Basin was introduced. The committee included Egypt,

Sudan, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and the DRC. The committee formed a 'Nile Basin ActionPlan;' the issues of water utilization and management were not being resolved in a mannersatisfactory to all countries. (Ethiopia and the Eastern Nile Basin)

-In 1995, the Council of Ministers of Water Affairs, the supreme governing body of the NileBasin Initiative, requested the World Bank take a lead role in coordinating the inputs of externalagencies to finance and implement the Nile River Basin Action Plan. (Common Goods and thecommon good: Transboundary natural resources, principled cooperation, and the Nile BasinInitiative)-The Nile 2002 Conference series was also working to create a basin-wide initiative. In 1997 aPanel of Experts, three from each country, were instructed by their ministers for water affairs tocome up with a cooperative legal and institutional framework for all the Nile Basin countries. Anegotiating committee was delegated by the nine Nile Basin countries to deliberate on the text.While waiting for the legal and institutional framework to materialize, the governments of theNile Basin countries launched the Nile Basin Initiative in 1999 (Sustainable Development andInternational Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin) Ethiopia, for the first time, is a part of theinitiative.

-The World Bank is coordinating an International Consortium for Cooperation on the Nile,which promotes transparent financing for cooperative water resources development andmanagement on the basin. (The Nile River Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Not EnoughBroth)

THE NILE BASIN INITIATIVEA more equitable sharing of the Nile, many believe, will help relieve such misery and tensionin the region. The World Bank and the U.N. are spearheading the Nile Basin Initiative, started inthe late 1990s to foster cooperation among the Nile countries. Egypt wants to have a hand inthose projects, even offering to provide expertise and investment15. Egyptians see some potential15 Thurow, Roger. Ethiopia Finally Gets Help From the Nile. Wall Street Journal. 2004.<http://www.tecolahagos.com/ethiopia_finally.htm>.

economic upside, including the possibility of joint hydroelectric ventures. For the first time in history, all the Nile riparian states have expressed their commitment to a joint initiative. This ambitious project has been greeted with caution though, since previous basin-wide initiatives have failed to produce a lasting framework for sharing and allocating the Nile's water flows and its history of tense relations between some Nile Basin countries. (The Nile River Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth). Ethiopia is concerned that downstream countries will attempt to prevent implementation of water development projects by blocking investments of international institutions and funding agencies. (Sustainable Development and International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin). Further, critics are skeptical of Ethiopia's motives, accusing Ethiopia of clandestine dambuilding projects supported by Israel and the U.S. to block the Nile waters and starve Egypt16.

The NBI is a transitional mechanism for working together until the permanent CooperativeFramework is agreed upon. The "D3" project and the Negotiating Committee are the forumswithin the NBI where this future Cooperative Framework is being discussed and developed(Sustainable Development and International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin). Theorganizational structure is composed of the Nile COM, the council of ministers whose membersare the ministers of water resources of the basin countries, and Nile TAC, which is the NileTechnical Advisory Committee and is composed of two members of each country. (SustainableDevelopment and International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin).

The NBI has programs operating at two levels: a shared vision program at the basin level anda subsidiary action program at the sub-basin level (Sustainable Development and InternationalCooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin). The NBI has two complementary tracks: a basin-wideShared Vision Program and a sub-basin Subsidiary Action Program. The SVP aims to pave theway for the SAP and to strengthen cooperation in the Nile Basin by building human andinstitutional capacity, and by creating the opportunity for basin-wide dialogue. The SAP intendsto identify and implement water resource development projects that confer mutual benefits tothe Nile Basin nations (Sustainable Development and International Cooperation in the EasternNile Basin). Ethiopia belongs to the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP); Ethiopia16 Thurow, Roger. Ethiopia Finally Gets Help From the Nile. Wall Street Journal. 2004.<http://www.tecolahagos.com/ethiopia_finally.htm>.

is now fully engaged in the seven programs of the "shared vision" and in ENSAP developmentprojects (Sustainable Development and International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin).The Eastern Nile Council of Ministers decided to establish a secretariat to oversee theimplementation of various ENSAP projects (Sustainable Development and InternationalCooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin)

Ethiopian experts actively participated and contributed to the formulation of projects for theEastern Nile Basin subsidiary action plan. Ethiopia readily paid its fair share of fees in supportof the NBI-- demonstrating a serious commitment to on the part of the government to developthe water resources in the NBI (Sustainable Development and International Cooperation in theEastern Nile Basin)

In 2000, the water ministers of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan endorsed the Eastern NileSubsidiary Action Program. The agreed cooperation is comprised of the following nine areas--irrigation and drainage; hydroelectric power development and pooling; watershed management;sustainable management of lakes and wetland systems; water regulation dams or check dams;flood and drought management; pollution control and water quality management; water useefficiency improvement; and integrated water resources management. (SustainableDevelopment and International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin) In 2000 Ethiopiaproposed 13 hydroelectric power projects, eight irrigation projects, and 25 watershedmanagement projects. As part of the new sub-basin venture, Egypt and Sudan have opted totake part in the construction and expansion of irrigation enterprises in Ethiopia. (SustainableDevelopment and International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin).

In June 2007, the basin countries agreed on all 39 articles that had been proposed in the newtreaty, except part (b) of Article 14 which speaks about water security. Dr Mohamed El-DinAllam, the Egyptian minister for water and irrigation, who is also the current chairperson of theNile Council of Ministers, said river management agreements are not easy to achieve and it can

take decades to be resolve. He cited the Columbia and Senegal basin initiatives which tookdecades before countries could reach an agreement. (Future Wars Could Be Fought Over Rivers,Lakes, AllAfrica.com: January 2010)

In December 2009, apart from Egypt, all the nine countries say they are ready to sign thecooperative framework agreement and have called for a speedy process. Eng. Shilingi-Mugisha,the acting director at the Directorate of Water Development who represented Uganda at theconference, called for a speedy commitment from countries to sign a final agreement. "It isthrough a cooperative agreement that we can engage in more sustainable projects that will helpus develop ourcountries," he said. (Egypt delays Nile Basin Treaty, AllAfrica.com: December2009)The Initiative is yet to formalise a comprehensive agreement for allocating the Nile resources.But at the moment all these efforts remain more on paper than practise, with Egypt threateningto declare war on any nation that flouts the two colonial treaties. (Future Wars Could Be FoughtOver Rivers, Lakes, AllAfrica.com: January 2010)Nile Day is an annual event organized in the Nile riparian countries to mark the historic dayin 1999 when the NBI was launched by the Council of Ministers of water affairs in the Nile Basincountries. On February 22, 2010 it was announced that water affairs ministers of the Nile Basincountries have agreed to hold a third round of negotiations on the Framework Nile Basinagreement. (Nile Basin Countries to Celebrate Nile Day, AllAfrica.com: February 2010)CURRENT PROJECTS IN NBI AND IN ETHIOPIAThe biggest and most ambitious ongoing project is not part of the NBI. It is fundamentallyaltering a remote area at the tail end of a Africa's deepest canyon (2,000 meters deep in places)cut by the Tekeze River. In this remote and stunningly beautiful canyon, construction isunderway on a huge dam. At 185 meters high, Tekeze Dam looms 10 meters higher that thegigantic Three Gorges Dam on China's Yangtze River. Tunnels several kilometers long are beingdriven through the rocks, and will divert the water of the Tekeze into a huge reservoir,

generating 225 MW of power, thus increasing Ethiopia's installed capacity by nearly one third.Because Addis Ababa became impatient with the slow pace of negotiations at the Nile BasinInitiative, four years ago the government decided to go it alone on this project. (InternationalRivers, Ethiopia's Water Dilemma). Addis Ababa found a sympathetic financier for the $224million project. The state-owned China Water Resources and Hydropower EngineeringCorporation not only undercut all other competitors, but also offered valuable experience withmega-projects because of its involvement in the Three Gorges Dam. "Tekeze Dam is for Ethiopiawhat Three Gorges is for China“, claimed Sun Yue, Director of the international department ofthe CWHRC, at the contract signing ceremony. (International Rivers, Ethiopia's WaterDilemma)David Grey, the World Bank's Senior Water Advisor for Africa, contends that large-scaledams like Tekezze would be to the advantage of Ethipia's poor."There is no precedent for acountry developing without harnessing its rivers and utilizing its water resources," says DavidGrey. (International Rivers, Ethiopia's Water Dilemma). This dam's power will go mainly to thecities or will be sold to neighbors with more developed industrial economies, and the water willirrigate fields downstream in the lowlands. But the poor –like Tadesse Desta, who year afteryear are in need of food aid – live in the densely populated highlands far above the dams. Theexpansion of irrigation will only benefit richer farmers and foreign-owned plantations, becausethey have the influence and the money to make use of the new opportunities, developed withpublic money. Such developments also don't mean that there will be more food, because theproduction of low-priced food crops for local markets is is not considered economically viableagainst the cost of new large dams. Instead, water and newly reclaimed lands will be used for theproduction of flowers, fruits or spices for export, or for cotton and sugar cane – water for cashand for profit, not for food. (International Rivers, Ethiopia's Water Dilemma)The priority for water development in Ehtiopia should be many thousands, even tens ofthousands, of small and medium sized dams like the one in Adi Nifas, says Helmut Spohn, who

has been assigned by the German funding agency Bread for the World to assist small farmers inEthiopia. The dams should be accompanied by afforestation, gully plugging and terrassing of thehills to avoid further erosion of the remaining soils. That would allow the rains to seep into theground and recharge groundwater and aquifers which still are the best and cheapest waterstorage, releasing it slowly over time, giving new life to perennial streams. It would also stopsoil, sand and stones from being washed into the rivers with every rain. (International Rivers,Ethiopia's Water Dilemma)Ethiopian engineers calculate the Koga irrigation would use less than one-tenth of 1 percentof the Nile flow reaching the Ethiopia-Sudan border. When the African Development Banknotified the Egyptians it was considering financing the $50 million Koga project, Cairo gave itssupport. "They are really suffering in Ethiopia," says Abdel Fattah Metawie, the chairman of theNile water sector in Egypt's Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. Without developmentin the Blue Nile basin, he says, "you have to expect a crisis in the area17."

CONCLUSIONIn the absence of cooperation between upstream and downstream countries, the unilateral,state-centric approach that the major riparian countries have been pursuing is untenable in thelong run. (The Nile River Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth) As a seniorEthiopian official warns, "In fact, the failure of NBI would mean more mistrust and suspicionamong the riparian states, frustration on the part of the facilitators, and a full-fledgedunilateralism, which would be a recipe for a conflict over the utilization of Nilewaters." (Cooperating on the Nile: Not a Zero-sum Game)

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