London Prime Residential Pipeline 2016

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<ul><li><p>LONDON PRIME RESIDENTIAL PIPELINE 2016</p></li><li><p>Prime housing has been instrumental in lifting Londons residential and construction markets out of recession. In recent years, investors from all over the world have taken a shine to the capitals real estate market, taking it towards unprecedented levels of growth. Although London remains a magnet for developers and investors alike, the market has matured significantly, requiring development opportunities to be carefully selected.</p><p>In recent years the shortage of high quality, fresh out of the box luxury homes in central locations, coupled with favourable exchange rates, made for a heady mix that investors simply could not resist. This resulted in huge price hikes right across the capitals prime market. In some areas values have accelerated up to fifty percent.</p><p>However, while planning and development have continued to surge ahead in light of these trends, the market is evolving. Successive tax tinkering has had a big impact on the very top of the market and its effects are not just felt in prime but in every area of the market. Developers will now need to be more agile if they want to ensure the right margins.</p><p>One feature of the recent boom years was sales values steadily outstripping construction price inflation. However, higher stamp duty charges combined with other tax reforms and global economic uncertainty have turned the thermostat down on buyer demand, while construction costs are now rising faster than before. </p><p>Significantly, the issues facing the London market are potentially playing into the hands of other cities across the country. Birmingham and Manchester, in particular, are coming up on the rails as developers and investors - boosted by the more affordable land values and the governments long-term infrastructure commitments - are looking to alternative locations for prime residential investment.</p><p>The question we pose this year is how can developers and investors turn a maximum profit in a market that keeps changing? What are the consequences of rising costs and easing demand? And, crucially, where next for the prime residential market? </p><p>Successive tax tinkering has had a big impact on every level of the market</p></li><li><p>EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The amount of prime homes </p><p>due for construction in London over the next ten years is expected to hit over 35,000 with a total sales value of more than 77 billion</p><p> Chelsea &amp; Fulham is the most popular location, followed by the regeneration areas of the Southbank and the City and fringe</p><p> The combined floor space of these properties would eclipse the entire City of London</p><p> Despite initially encouraging investment to stimulate wider growth, the government has changed policies mid-cycle, stemming buyer demand and, consequentially, hurting affordable housing allocations</p><p> Stamp duty, in particular, is becoming more of a tax on development than purchasing with stamp duty paid deals impacting margins </p><p> The Chancellor should scrap extra stamp duty on homes above 1 million and, instead, use the planning process to secure an enhanced level of affordable housing</p><p> Although market conditions are changing and there are fears of an over-supply at the lower end of prime, opportunities exist in mixed use and mixed tenure developments</p><p> Significant growth likely to be seen in British regional economies as major infrastructure commitments, population and employment growth drive prime demand</p><p> Market will recover when sales values rise relative to construction inflation between 2018 to 2020.</p></li><li><p>PRO</p><p>JEC</p><p>T N</p><p>AM</p><p>ESH</p><p>ORT</p><p> TER</p><p>M </p><p>(201</p><p>5-20</p><p>18)</p><p>MED</p><p>IUM</p><p> TER</p><p>M </p><p>(201</p><p>9-20</p><p>21)</p><p>LON</p><p>G T</p><p>ERM</p><p> (2</p><p>022-</p><p>2024</p><p>)1 </p><p>Pala</p><p>ce S</p><p>tree</p><p>t10</p><p> Trin</p><p>ity S</p><p>quar</p><p>e10</p><p>0 Pi</p><p>ccad</p><p>illy</p><p>100 </p><p>Wes</p><p>t Cro</p><p>mw</p><p>ell R</p><p>oad</p><p>102 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Ya</p><p>rd)</p><p>Roya</p><p>l Mai</p><p>l Sor</p><p>ting </p><p>Offi</p><p>ce33</p><p> Gre</p><p>ycoa</p><p>t Str</p><p>eet</p><p>54-5</p><p>7 G</p><p>reat</p><p> Mar</p><p>lbor</p><p>ough</p><p> Str</p><p>eet</p><p>Alp</p><p>ha S</p><p>quar</p><p>eH</p><p>SBC</p><p> Pen</p><p>sion</p><p> Fun</p><p>dW</p><p>est E</p><p>nd G</p><p>reen</p><p>Bay</p><p>swat</p><p>er P</p><p>roje</p><p>ct29</p><p> New</p><p> End</p><p>Mill</p><p>bank</p><p> Tow</p><p>er</p><p>TOTA</p><p>L U</p><p>NIT</p><p>S 16</p><p>,947</p><p>9,62</p><p>28,</p><p>486</p></li><li><p>DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD </p><p>6000</p><p>5000</p><p>4000</p><p>3000</p><p>2000</p><p>1000</p><p>0</p><p>Homes per year 2014 index2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024</p><p>Homes per year 2015 index</p><p>Our pipeline is based on a snapshot analysis of new private residential projects being built or planned for delivery in central London through to 2025 with an average sales value greater than 1,350/ft2. Given the complex nature of planning, funding and phasing the delivery of these developments, estimating the delivery dates of schemes is not an exact science. However, by producing a theoretical timeline, we are able to discuss the headline trends and shape of the ten-year pipeline.</p><p>The market has cooled in recent months with some developers reporting a slowdown in sales and enquiries. In spite of this, the development pipeline has surged ahead 40 percent since last year with over 10,000 additional homes now planned for construction. </p><p>A major reason for this has been the continued attraction of prime London new build to a wide range of international investors. Developers from the likes of Malaysia, Hong Kong, USA, India and UAE, as well as the UK, have entered the market acquiring sites later in the cycle to bring forward new schemes with revised and intensified levels of development. Many of these are now forecast to complete between 2019 and 2025.</p><p>In terms of timings, we predict a two-year peak in the number of new prime homes being completed in 2017 (5,414) and 2018 (5,130). At this point, construction will have completed on just under half of the total number of homes currently planned, leaving a staggering 36 billion worth of property still to be built. Given the amount of development remaining and the possible need to re-configure the product mix in response to the current market dynamics, it is conceivable that the some projects could take longer to be completed. </p><p>Homes per year 2014 versus 2015 index</p><p>SHORT TERM(2016 - 2018)</p><p>MEDIUM TERM(2019 - 2021)</p><p>LONG TERM(2022 - 2025)</p><p>16,947 Homes</p><p>48% Pipeline Volume</p><p>41 Billion Sales Value</p><p>9,622 Homes</p><p>28% Pipeline Volume</p><p>22 Billion Sales Value</p><p>8,486 Homes</p><p>24% Pipeline Volume</p><p>14 Billion Sales Value</p></li><li><p>MAPPING OUT LOCATION</p><p>1,754589</p><p>401</p><p>343</p><p>1,960</p><p>1,104 1,600</p><p>933</p><p>17</p><p>427252</p><p>10,9148,863</p><p>5,898</p><p>Chelsea &amp; Fulham - 10,914</p><p>Southbank - 8,863</p><p>City &amp; Fringe - 5,898</p><p>Victoria &amp; Pimlico - 1,960</p><p>Midtown - 1,754</p><p>Docklands - 1,600</p><p>Kensington - 1,104</p><p>Bayswater &amp; Paddington - 933</p><p>Mayfair - 589</p><p>St. Johns Wood - 427</p><p>Belgravia - 401</p><p>Knightsbridge - 343</p><p>Marylebone - 252</p><p>Hampstead - 17</p><p>KEY</p><p>The exclusive west London postcodes of Chelsea &amp; Fulham are currently proving the most popular areas of the capital. Here, almost 11,000 new luxury homes are planned with a sales value of around 20 billion. This figure, however, is heavily influenced by the future regeneration of Earls Court which represents around two thirds of the planned development in the area, and for which the programme is currently being reviewed.</p><p>In the main, however, the concentration of new build activity has been focused on emerging locations. These areas are outside the traditional golden postcodes, where developers see potential for house price growth fuelled by regeneration schemes creating improved business links, social and retail amenities and, critically, new transport infrastructure. </p><p>One such area is the Southbank where continuing transformation has seen the area swiftly establishing itself as Londons third major business district. Here, the value of prime residential development has reached 14 billion, up 37 percent on 2015. Likewise, in the City and fringe the tech city revolution coupled with new Crossrail stations is proving a growing draw for investment. The total number of homes planned in these areas has seen a 40 percent increase on last year. </p></li><li><p>DIFFERENT GRADES OF LUXURY AVOIDING THE SQUEEZE IN A CONSTANTLY CHANGING MARKET</p><p>When it comes to types of home, in terms of sales values, over two thirds of new build prime properties are now valu

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