latest corporate presentation

29
12 Jan 18 WF12310 Lundin Petroleum January 2018 Corporate Presentation

Upload: hadung

Post on 30-Dec-2016

220 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

12 Jan 18 WF12310

Lundin Petroleum

January 2018

Corporate Presentation

WF12310 p14 08.17

2015 2016 2017

Cash operating cost (USD/boe)

Production (Mboepd)

<4.60 USD/boe (1)

>85 Mboepd (1)

<4.60 USD/boe (1)

4 x Production

10

0

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Delivering GrowthLundin Petroleum

(1) 2017 forecast

Production Guidance

2Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2310

p01

02.

17

Organic growth strategy

Strong production growth with low operating costs Resource base of ~1 billion barrels

Lundin PetroleumAt a Glance

Geographical FocusNorway pure play

3Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2310

p03

02.

17

Lundin PetroleumKey Metrics

2P Reserves Production Cash Operating Costs

Grow resource base and production organically with a disciplined geographical focus

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

Net

MM

bo

e

Net

Mb

oep

d

US

D/b

oe

2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016

654714

21

59

2017Latest

Guidance

8510.7

6.8

2017Latest

Guidance

4.6

Operating Cash Flow

Mill

ion

US

D

2015 2016 2017 (1)

550

860

(1) Oil price range 50 to 60 USD/bbl

>120 Mboepd >150 Mboepd

Johan Sverdrup Phase 1 first oil

(Late 2019)

Long-termProduction

Johan Sverdrup Full field production

(2022)

4

8

6

10

12

2

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

2016 – 2022 production growth

of 17% CAGR

<

4Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2380

Q3

p11

10.

17

Lundin PetroleumFinancial Highlights - First Nine Months 2017

Operating Cash Flowfrom continuing operations

EBITDAfrom continuing operations

Net Resultfrom continuing operations

200

0

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

475.8

1,071.7

125%

First Nine Months2016

First Nine Months2017

Mill

ion

US

D

200

0

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

First Nine Months2016

First Nine Months2017

Mill

ion

US

D

64%

First Nine Months2016

First Nine Months2017

(1) Includes increase in net foreign exchange gain compared to First Nine Months 2016 of MUSD 75.6

Mill

ion

US

D

0

200

400

600

263.4

431.8(1)

557.0

1095.5

97%

5Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2168

p20

02

.17

NorwayForecast Development Expenditure on Committed Projects

1,000

2017 2018 2019 2020

Forecast Development Expenditure (Million USD)

Johan Sverdrup Phase 1

Johan Sverdrup Phase 2

Edvard Grieg drilling

Alvheim Area infill drilling

Committed Projects

6Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2310

p07

05.

17

Lundin PetroleumDebt

~ USD 1 billionAvailable LiquidityHeadroom

USD 5.0 billion RBL secured Attractive margin: 315 bpsNo amortisation until end 2020

Fully funded up to Johan Sverdrup first oil at average Brent price of USD ~40/boe

4,115 4,02491 85

RBL RBL Cash Net Debt30/09/17

Tax refundNov 2017Sources of Liquidity

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

MU

SD

5,000

7Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2310

p04

08.

17

Norway Investment FrameworkLundin Petroleum

Fiscal Regime: 78% tax credit on E&A spend 90% tax credit on development spend over 4–6 years Interest deductibility

Licensing Regime: Annual licensing rounds Awards based on technical merits – no cash bids

(1) NPD estimate - yet to find

Southern Barents Sea 8.8 billion barrels (1)

Significant yet to find resources

Material acreage position in both the southern Barents Sea and the North Sea

Building positions in the Norwegian Sea and the Mandal High area of the North Sea

Attractive Fiscal Regime

Organic Growth

North Sea 4.4 billion barrels (1)

Norwegian Sea 4.9 billion barrels (1)

8Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2303

p05

06.

17

PDO

Gross Edvard Grieg Estimated Ultimate Recovery (MMboe)

Cumulative Production3P Reserves

Remaining 2P Reserves

186

2016

223

Lundin PetroleumEdvard Grieg Platform

Luno II(WI 50%)

SW Area

310

Luno II North (WI 50%) Rolvsnes

(WI 50%)

Apollo(WI 65%)

Gas Export to SAGE

Edvard Grieg (WI 65%)onstream Q4 2015

Ivar Aasen (WI 1.385%)onstream Q4 2016

Oil Export to Grane

potential future tie-back to Edvard Grieg

Lundin operated

2P reserves: 223 MMboe

Increased facilities capacity: 145,000 bopd (1) gross

Reservoir performance better than expected – significant reserve increase anticipated end 2017

Development drilling ongoing

Ivar Aasen processing at Edvard Grieg

OPEX4.15 USD/boe including tariff netting (2)

4.85 USD/boe (2)

(2) 2017 forecast

(1) Combined for Edvard Grieg and Ivar Aasen

Key Production Asset – Edvard Grieg

9Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2303

p14

09.

17

Lundin PetroleumContinuous Reserves Growth – Alvheim Area

Strong reservoir performance

Facilities well managed

Production decline arrested by infill drilling – keeps operating costs low

Portfolio of good infill drilling opportunities

Exploration opportunities

PDO

2C Contingent ResourcesCumulative Production

3P Reserves

Remaining 2P Reserves2016

Alvheim Area Gross Estimated Ultimate Recovery (MMboe)

257

464

572

(1) 2017 forecast

Bøyla

Vilje

Kneler B

ProductionGas liftWater injection

Producing structure

Infill drilling

2018/19 infill drilling

Undeveloped gas discovery

Prospect

BoA2 infill wellsOnline 2018

Alvheim

2 infill wellsOnline 3Q 2017

Volund

VolundFrosk(expl well 2018)

OPEX 4.08 USD/boe (1)

Infill opportunities breakeven< 25 USD/boe

Alvheim FPSO

10Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2298

p40

01.

18

Gross Resources: 2.0 - 3.0 billion boe

Processing platform 1

Living Quarters

Riser platform Processing platform 2

Wellhead & Drillingplatform

Largest Phase 1 development on NCS

Phase 1 progressing to schedule > 60% complete Project metrics continue to get better

Statoil

Lundin

Petoro

Aker BP

Maersk

40.0267%

22.6000%

17.3600%

11.5733%

8.4400%

Working Interest – Johan Sverdrup Unit

Lundin PetroleumJohan Sverdrup

Full FieldBreak Even Price

Investment CostReserves EstimateCapacity

11Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2378

p13

07.

17

Johan SverdrupPhase 1 – Key Milestones Being Delivered on Schedule

Riser platform jacket installed - July 2017

Drilling Platform Topsides assembled - September 2017

Norway

Drilling PlatformTopsides

Riser Platform Jacket

Oslo

Johan Sverdrup

Haugesund

12Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2298

p09

09.

17

Johan SverdrupLundin Petroleum

PDO (1)

207 Bn NOKCurrent(2)

132–147 Bn NOK

Phase I440 Mbopd

Full Field660 Mbopd

FULL FIELD - GROSS CAPEX

TOTAL SAVING

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

(1) Nominal, NOK6:USD (2) Nominal 2017, fixed currency, excluding IOR

30-35% Savingsince PDO submission

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

PDO SubmissionPhase 2

First Oil Phase 1

First OilPhase 2

Concept Select Phase 2

First oil Phase 1: Late 2019First oil Phase 2: Q4 2022

13Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2297

p08

08.

17

Lundin Petroleum Big Fields Get Bigger

2C Contingent Resources

3P Reserves

Cumulative Production

2P Reserves

600

400

100

500

300

200

0

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

Gro

ss M

Mb

oe

Alvheim AreaPDO End 2016

98%

Edvard GriegPDO End 2016

EG South West36%

Johan SverdrupPDO End 2016

16%

Gross ultimate reserves and resources

14Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2310

p05

01.

18

Lundin PetroleumLow Carbon Footprint

Norway World NorthAmerica

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

kgC

O2 e

/bo

e

2016 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity

Norway has one of the lowest carbon emission rates per barrel in the world

Carbon mitigation technology and improved emissions management

Lundin Petroleum low carbon intensity provides a competitive advantage

EdvardGrieg

“ As key player in Norwegian O&G Lundin Petroleum is: · 1st on estimate of GHG emissions per unit of capital employed · 2nd in terms of upstream emissions per barrel

– Barclays Equity Research

15Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2378

Q

3 p

26 0

1.18

Appraisal FocusLundin Petroleum

Significant resource upside in existing field areas

Alta/Gohta appraisal drilling/testing in 2017 - Completed Alta EWT in 2018?

Rolvsnes appraisal drilling/testing in 2018 De-risks larger area potential

Luno II appraisal drilling in 2018

NorwayNorth Sea

Norwegian Sea

Southern Barents Sea

HammerfestHammerfest

StavangerStavanger

Trondheim Trondheim

Luno II / Rolvsnes

Alta/Gohta

Utsira High Area

Loppa High

(1) Reserves/resources at end 2016

MM

bo

e

ContingentResources

2P 3P

Net Reserves & Resources MMboe (1)

0

600

800

1,000

1,200

16Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2378

Q

3 p

09 0

1.18

Exploration StrategyLundin Petroleum

NCS ranks in top 10 worldwide exploration areas (2)

NCS > 16 billion barrels yet to find (1)

Southern Barents Sea ~50% resource potential Underexplored - 117 wildcat wells drilled

Significant remaining potential in North Sea andNorwegian Sea areas

Norway

North Sea

Norwegian Sea

Southern Barents Sea

HammerfestHammerfest

StavangerStavanger

Trondheim Trondheim

Alvheim Area &Utsira High Area

Mandal High

Frøya High/Froan Basin

Loppa High

Southeastern Trend

(2) Woodmac

(1) NPD estimate – yet to find resources

Southern Barents Sea8.8 billion barrels (1)

Norwegian Sea4.9 billion barrels (1)

North Sea4.4 billion barrels (1)

17Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2392

p06

01.

18

Exploration StrategyLundin Petroleum

Frøya High/Froan Basin - New Core Area

- Building new core area – licensing rounds- Maturing prospectivity >2 Bn boe(2) for 2019 drilling

Mandal High – New Core Area

- Building new core area – deals/licensing rounds- Testing material prospectivity >800 MMboe(2)

Utsira High – Sustain Production

- Progressing Luno II/Rolvsnes towards development- Drilling & maturing prospectivity

Southern Barents Sea - Drill Out & Build

- Large under-explored basin >8 Bn boe(1)

- Drill out material prospects – 2018 wells targeting >1.5 Bn boe(2) - Building prospectivity – licensing rounds

5 wells in 2018

Alvheim Area – Sustain Production

- Drilling & maturing prospectivity- Adding new opportunities – licensing rounds

1 well in 2018

3 wells in 2018

1 well in 2018

(1) NPD estimate yet to find(2) Gross unrisked prospective resources

10+ exploration/appraisal wells planned in 2018

18Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2310

p15

01.

18

Lundin PetroleumKey Messages

Strong production growth with low operating costs

Exciting organic growth strategy

Continued strong focus on cost discipline and operating efficiency

Responsible operator with focus on HSE and risk management

2015 2016

Production Guidance(Mboepd)

59.3

2017Guidance

20.7

>150

>120

2015 2016 2017Guidance

J. SverdrupPhase 1

OPEX(USD/boe)

32

6.8

~4.5<4.6

10.7

J. SverdrupPlateau

J. SverdrupPhase 1

>85

19Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2310

p15

01.

18

Lundin PetroleumKey Messages

Strong production growth with low operating costs

Exciting organic growth strategy

Continued strong focus on cost discipline and operating efficiency

Responsible operator with focus on HSE and risk management

2015 2016

Production Guidance(Mboepd)

59.3

2017Guidance

20.7

>150

>120

2015 2016 2017Guidance

J. SverdrupPhase 1

OPEX(USD/boe)

32

6.8

~4.5<4.6

10.7

J. SverdrupPlateau

J. SverdrupPhase 1

>85

20Lundin Petroleum

Lundin Petroleum

Appendix

WF1

1543

p5

01.1

7

FinancialPerformance

Operating Cash FlowEBITDA Total Capex

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2010 2011

MU

SD

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Production (boepd)

Average Brent oil price (USD/boe)

Cost of operations (USD/boe)

EBITDA (MUSD)

Operating cash flow (MUSD)

Full Year2015

384.7

699.6

32,300

52.39

10.27

Full Year2016

902.6

1010.8

72,600

43.73

6.25

21Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2310

p10

02.

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Ye

ars

Lundin PetroleumPeer Comparison – Reserves Life Index (1)

(1) Data Source: based on latest 2P reserves and production data disclosed by peer group companies

Peer Group: Aker BP, Enquest, Faroe, Galp, IPC, OMV, Ophir, Premier, Repsol, Soco, Total, Tullow, Vermilion

LundinPetroleum

Lundin Petroleum’s growth profile better than peers

22Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2378

p

02 0

7.17

Edvard Grieg

92%

2017 ProductionLundin Petroleum

First Nine Months Production Efficiency (%)

Alvheim Area

97%

Annual CMD, 93%

Annual CMD, 95%

First nine months production of 87.1 Mboepd Q3 production of 89.2 Mboepd Reservoir and facilities outperformance Increased Edvard Grieg facilities capacity

Updated full year production guidance: 85 Mboepd1

0 4020 10060

Net Production Guidance (Mboepd)80

Q1Actual 82.6

89.5

89.2

Q2Actual

Q3Actual

Q4

High

Guidance2

Low

1 Original guidance January: 70-80 Mboepd2 Revised guidance August: 80-85 Mboepd

23Lundin Petroleum

Southwest appraisal well 10–30 MMboe gross resource upside Potential resource upside in other areas of the field Fourth water injection well currently drilling

Latest drilling results inline with prognosis Communication with rest of field

Northern Tellus area (OP5) Results in line with prognosis Contribution from weathered/fractured basement Communication with rest of field

Reservoir depletion rate more favourable than anticipated Minimal water production (expected late 2016)

Reservoir model being updated Updated reserves and profiles end 2017

WF1

2378

p19

10.

17

Edvard GriegReservoir Performance

WI2

WI3WI5

WI1

OP2

OP1 OP4

OP5

OP10

EG Southwest appraisal

OP6OP3

24Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2302

p03

06.

17

Utsira HighLundin Petroleum

Norway

Utsira High

Operator

Lundin Petroleum licences

Partner

Oil field/discoveryGas

Prospect/lead

Goddo

Lille Prinsen

Fignon

Apollo

Luno IINorth

Luno II

IvarAasen

EdvardGrieg

Rolvsnes

BackBasin

JohanSverdrup

PL359

PL338C

PL338

PL501

PL167

PL167b

PL501B

Johan Sverdrup Unit

PL265

PL815

0 KM 10(2) Net remaining reserves at end 2016

(1) Reserves/resouces at end 2016

MM

bo

e

ContingentResources

2P(2) UnriskedProspectiveResources

(P50)

3P

Utsira High Net Reserves & Resources MMboe (1)

0

600

800

1,000

1,200

Significant resource upside in existing field areas

Rolvsnes appraisal drilling/testing in 2018 De-risks larger potential of Goddo

Luno II concept studies ongoing, further appraisal drilling planned in 2018

25Lundin Petroleum

WF1

2346

p01

07.

17

Creating Shared Value from Responsible Energy ManagementLundin Petroleum

Norwegian oil and gas sector is #1 in the Resource Governance Index (RGI) Operating in the world class governance environment of Norway givesLundin Petroleum a competitive edge in providing low carbon intensityand responsibly managed energy resources

NORWAY: RGI SCOREAND RANK

1st

89th Source: "Natural ResourceGovernance Institute" 2017 RGI Index

“We find Lundin Petroleum’s sustainability ambition and approach to be consistent with ours: based on a strong commitment from senior management to the highest standard, it is fully integrated into day today operations supported by a strong company culture and governance model

– ABN Amro

26Lundin Petroleum

Lundin Petroleum’sShareholders

WF1

1003

p01

01.

18

Number of shares in issue: 340.4 million

Average traded volume per trading day in 2017: ~0.9 million shares (1)

Part of OMX30, NASDAQ Stockholm

Shares in free-float approx. 51%

(2) Institutional Investors onlysource: IPREO End August 2017

InstitutionalInvestors, 34%

Others, 8%

Retail, 9%

Statoil ASA, 20%

Shareholder structure

Lundin Family, 29%

Sweden, 25%USA, 18%

Scandinavia excl. Sweden, 14%

UK/Ireland, 26%Rest of the World, 9%

Rest of the Europe, 8%

Geographically(2)

27Lundin Petroleum

WF8

278

p1

06.

17

Disclaimer

Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements made and information contained herein constitute "forward-looking information" (within the meaning of applicable securities legislation). Such statements and information (together, "forward-looking statements") relate to future events, including the Company's future performance, business prospects or opportunities. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to estimates of reserves and/or resources, future production levels, future capital expenditures and their allocation to exploration and development activities, future drilling and other exploration and development activities. Ultimate recovery of reserves or resources are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of management.

All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Statements concerning proven and probable reserves and resource estimates may also be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements and reflect conclusions that are based on certain assumptions that the reserves and resources can be economically exploited. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. No assurance can be given that these expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements should not be relied upon. These statements speak only as on the date of the information and the Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties relating to, among other things, operational risks (including exploration and development risks), productions costs, availability of drilling equipment, reliance on key personnel, reserve estimates, health, safety and environmental issues, legal risks and regulatory changes, competition, geopolitical risk, and financial risks. These risks and uncertainties are described in more detail under the heading “Risks and Risk Management” and elsewhere in the Company’s annual report. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of risk factors should not be construed as exhaustive. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.

NP

www.lundin-petroleum.com