idrc davos 2012 · 2 foreword by ms margareta wahlström 2 foreword by ms irina bokova 3 patronage...

4th International Disaster and Risk Conference

26-30 August 2012Davos, Switzerland

www.grforum.org

IDRC DAVOS 2012"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"

Programme & Short Abstracts

26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland

SPONSORS

Gold Sponsors

O ial carrier

Platinum Sponsors

Silver Sponsors

GRF Davos Foundation is grateful for t nancial commitment and continuous support of:

Risk management solution

Municipality of Davos Canton of Grisons

1

The Chairman’s welCome

“FROM THOUGHTS TO ACTION -TOGETHER WE MAKE THINGS HAPPEN”

I and my staff would like to welcome you to Davos for the 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012, and I would sincerely like to thank you for joining this global gathering. IDRC Davos 2012 builds on the success of its preceding conferences in 2006, 2008 and 2010, and again features a broad range of topics. It brings different actors together and strengthens partnerships. With a large number of government officials, experts and practitioners, high-level representatives of IGOs, the UN, NGOs, the private sector, scientific and academic institutions, the media and other eminent people from 100 countries, the conference provides a valuable forum for dialogue and a strategic platform for the world´s risk and disaster management community. This year, the focus of IDRC will be Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society. With a vital mix of topics and formats, including plenary and parallel sessions, workshops, training courses, exhibitions and networking events, the conference will foster the exchange of information and viewpoints between scientists, practitioners and policy makers.

The Hyogo Framework for Action will end in 2015. Three years before this happens, IDRC Davos 2012 aims to take the implementation of the HFA a further step forward and to draw conclusions to improve the design of international risk management standards. In recent years, the scope and complexity of risks and disasters have grown. IDRC Davos 2012 will again promote an integrative perspective and foster a multidisciplinary approach that addresses the many risks that threaten society, risks that may be well beyond any single entity’s capacity to control, and that may adversely affect a great variety of stakeholders across different geographic, administrative and commercial boundaries. The main elements of success are multi-disciplinary and trans-sectorial initiatives, as well as public-private partnerships in risk reduction and disaster management.

The year 2011 was profoundly marked by tragic events, such as the devastating floods in Thailand, a long-lasting drought in East Africa and a terrible earthquake with cascading impacts in Japan. Moreover, the year 2012 started with a number of tragic earthquakes, which reminds us again and again of how vulnerable our communities are, how limited we are in our ability to provide help, and how difficult it is to overcome such disasters. In June 2012, the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development Rio+20 was held in Brazil. It reconfirmed the world’s commitment to eradicate poverty, to accelerate progress towards the achievement of the MDGs and to take risk reduction and disaster management into account.

IDRC Davos 2012 will endeavour to add momentum to this movement by formulating a series of direct, pertinent and practical solutions that address urgent and pressing issues in various key areas of risk reduction and disaster management. The outcomes of the conference will be documented in a report (see page 70). Contributions by all participants are highly welcome and should give answers to these three main questions:

• What are the dominant and developing trends in risks and disasters in the modern world?• What sort of international instruments should be developed after the Hyogo Framework for Action?• What are the principal issues for the future in disaster risk reduction and resilience, and how should they be tackled?

We anticipate a successful and worthwhile conference. Our thanks go to the IDRC Davos 2012 sponsors, to the authors of all the papers and posters to be presented, to the high-level speakers and panellists, to the special session and workshop organizers; and lastly to the patrons, the scientific and technical committee, the reviewers, and the collaborating institutions for their leadership, guidance, support and hard work.

Davos, August 2012 Dr. Walter J. Ammann Chairman IDRC Davos 2012

Walter J. AmmannIDRC Davos 2012 Chairman

The Chairman’s welCome

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United Nations Environment Programme

PaTronage insTiTuTions

International Labour Organisation

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

Foreword by ms margareta wahlströmSpecial Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction

The convergence of environmental, technical and socioeconomic risks is a formidable challenge to sustainable development. It is a generational issue that requires collective efforts, thinking and planning to increase people’s resilience. Moreover, it requires addressing the root causes of risk and strengthening the way that risk is managed.

This 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference (IDRC Davos 2012) - Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society, offers a prime opportunity to comprehensively and collectively debate and exchange knowledge as well as experience about the risks confronting the world; risks that exist because of inappropriate environmental and natural resource management, poor governance, inequitable socio-economic development, and poor urban and land use planning.

The interconnected nature of risks calls for a multifaceted approach that combines the best expertise, acumen, wisdom and instincts to manage those risks and build and strengthen the resilience of communities. This is a key premise of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015).

IDRC Davos 2012 is a multidisciplinary forum where ideas and collaborations can be forged for a resilient future.

Foreword by ms irina Bokova Director-General of UNESCO

Disaster resilience is a human development priority. We must recognize today the tight link between safety and disaster risk reduction and build on this as a central component of our work for overall sustainable development.

This calls for deeper cooperation in assessing risks and mitigating their consequences. The Outcome Document of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development -- Rio+20 – highlights the need for a sharper focus on disaster risk reduction and building resilience to disasters. It recognizes also the importance of comprehensive hazard and risk assessments.

The goal of the 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference -- IDRC Davos 2012 -- is to promote comprehensive and integrative approaches to disaster risk management. This resonates closely with UNESCO’s work to take forward disaster mitigation and preparedness. It also echoes UNESCO’s efforts to raise awareness and to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and experience among all relevant actors. For all these reasons, UNESCO is pleased to be associated with IDRC Davos 2012. I see this as a further step in the cooperation launched in June 2011 between UNESCO and the Global Risk Forum (GRF) Davos. I wish every success to the Conference and look forward to its conclusions.

PaTronage insTiTuTionsConFerenCe PaTrons

4 5

1 The Chairman’s welcome2 Foreword by ms margareta wahlström2 Foreword by ms irina Bokova 3 Patronage institutions4 Conference chair4 Conference Patrons4 grF Davos organizing committee4 Photographer4 Programme layout4 Videography 5 Contents6 iDrC davos 2012 scientific and technical advisory committee9 Co-hosting institutions9 Collaborating institutions12 Plenary speakers14 list of exhibitors17 grF Davos Business Continuity iDrC Post-Conference18 street event19 agenda at a glance25 red Chair26 Congress maps30 Detailed programme58 Poster presentations64 special events66 Job Fair66 Conference proceedings67 Tourism information and leisure activities69 media Partners70 how You can contribute to the iDrC Davos 2012 outcomes report72 general information and emergency73 Proceedings of the international Disaster and risk Conference

ConTenTsConferenCe Chairwalter J. ammann, President and CEO, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland

ConferenCe PaTronsmargareta wahlström, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva

irina Bakova, Director General, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Paris

walter J. ammann, Chairman

David alexander, Chief Senior Scientist

fabian ammann, IT

Judith ammann, Additional Support

marco Bruderer, Additional Support

madeleine Colbert, Project Officer

marco ferrari, Senior Consultant

nikola gütermann, Project Assistant

stéphanie Jaquet, Project Assistant

sieglinde moos, Customer Relations

Jill Portmann, Administration and Communication

andreas rechkemmer, Chief Senior Science and Policy Adviser

andrea maria roth, Project Assistant

lyn shepard, Conference Journalist

marc stal, Project Officer

manuela stiffler, Project Assistant

PhoTograPhernikolaos Kapelis, Switzerland

Programme layouTstéphanie Jaquet, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos

grf Davos organizing CommiTTee

viDeograPhy by so emotion, Chur, switzerlandstephan markreto Janeschstefan Jägerstefanie rothnico Troianiello

From glaciers to palms Chur / Davos / St. Moritz — Tirano — Lugano. The line followed by the Bernina Express is a masterpiece of engineering skills. It runs from the icy heights of the Alps, at over 2200 metres above sea level, down into warmer, sunnier lands at an altitude

of just 400 metres. This truly impressive railway, with its world-famous viaducts and spectacu-lar curves, blends harmoniously into its grandi-ose mountain setting – which is why it has been awarded its UNESCO World Heritage accolade!

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ConTenTsiDrC DaVos 2012 ConFerenCe organisaTion

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iDrC Davos 2012 sCienTifiC anD TeChniCal aDvisory CommiTTee

edris alam, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Chittagong, Chittagong, Bangladesh

Tahmeed m. al-hussaini, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh

ali asgary, Associate Professor and Graduate Program Director, MADEM, Disaster and Emergency Management Program, York University, Toronto, Canada

Christoph aubrecht, Research Associate, Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Foresight & Policy Development Departement, Vienna, Austria

samira Barghouti, Dean of Research & Cooperation, University for Arabs, Jerusalem-Palestine

Bockline omedo Bebe, Associate Professor of Livestock Production, Faculty of Agriculture, Egerton University, Kenya

Djillali Benouar, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediene, Bab Ezzouar, Algeria

Janos J. Bogardi, Executive Officer, Global Water System Project, Bonn, Germany

Jean-Claude Bolay, Director, Cooperation and Development Center and Vice-Presidency for Academic Affairs, UNESCO Chair in Technologies for Development, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

stefan Brem, Head of Risk Analysis and Research Coordination,Federal Department of Defense, Civil Protection and Sport Federal Office for Civil Protection Policy Division, Bern, Switzerland

eugen Brühwiler, Professor and Director, Institute of Structural Engineering, IIC School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerlandrhoda Birech, Department of Crops, Horticulture and Soil Sciences, Egerton University, Egerton, Kenya

Christopher g. Burton, Scientist, Social Vulnerability and Disaster Resilience, GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

ian Burton, Emeritus Professor, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

Peter Burgherr, Group Leader Technology Assessment, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institut , Villigen, Switzerland

Barbara J. Cliff, President and CEO, Windber Medical Center, Windber, USA

andrew e. Collins, Director of the Disaster and Development Centre, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom

francesco Della Corte, Director, Department of Emergency Medicine, Azienda Ospidaliero Universitaria Maggiore della Carità, Novara, Italy

rob de wijk, Director, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hague, The Netherlands

ranjith Dissanayake, Professor of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka

Craig Duncan, Senior Information Management Officer, Information Management Unit, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland

richard J. eiser, Department of Psychology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom

mustafa Ö. erdik, Professor, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey

michael h. faber, Professor of Risk and Safety and Head of the Department,Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark

marie-valentine florin, Managing Director, IRGC – International Risk Governance Council, Geneva, Switzerland

eladio fernández-galiano, Executive Secretary, European and Mediterranean Major Hazards Agreement (EUR-OPA), Council of Europe, Strasbourg, France

nina i. frolova, Senior Scientific Researcher, Seismological Center of Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Russian Academy of Sciences; Regional Director for Europa; Directors’ Board Member, TIEMS - The International Emergency Management Society, Russia

Dirk glaesser,Coordinator, Risk and Crisis Management,World Tourism Organization (UNWTO),Madrid, Spain

Patrick gwimbi, Senior Lecturer, Department of Environmental Health, National University of Lesotho, Lesotho

Johann georg goldammer, The Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC), Freiburg, Germany

Peter greminger, Senior Consultant, Ressources and Risk management, Federal Office for Environment, Bern, Switzerland

markku T. häkkinen, Senior Researcher, Department of Mathematical Information Technology, University of Jyväskylä, Finland

ryusuke hashimura, Associate Professor, Department of EcoDesign, Sojo University, Kumamoto, Japan

makarand (mark) hastak, Professor and Head, Division of Construction Engineering and Management, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA

yongnian he, Research Professor, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, People’s Republic of China

sam hettiarachchi, Professor of Civil Engineering, University of Moratuwa; Chair, Risk Assessment Working Group of UNESCO/IOC/ICG/IOTWS, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

yasamin o. izadkhah, Assistant Professor, Risk Management Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran

Carlo Jäger, Professor for Economy, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Potsdam, Germany

allia Khedidja, Professor and Director, Université des Sciences et de la Technologie Houari USTHB, Algiers, Algeria

wolfgang Kröger, Executive Director, ETH Risk Center, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

seda Kundak, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Architecture, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

alejandro linayo rivero, President, Disaster Risk Management Research Centre, Merida, Venezuela

Thomas r. loster, Chairman, Munich Re Foundation, Munich, Germany

uwe lübken, Project Director “Disaster Migration in Historical Perspective,” Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society (RCC), Munich, Germany

nikolay a. makhutov, Member Correspondent, Russian Academy of Sciences and Chief Scientific Researcher, Institute of Machine Science, Russian Academy of Sciences; Head of the Russian Academy of Sciences Working Group “Risk and Safety”, Russia

James martin, Professor of Civil Engineering, Virginia Tech (VT), USA

adolfo mascarenhas, Local and Indigenous Knowledge Systems, Commission of Science and Technology, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Christof mauch, Director, Rachel Carlson Center for Environment and Society, Munich, Germany

virginia murray, Consultant, Medical Toxicologist, Chemical Hazards and Poisons Division, London, UK

Juan murria, Consulting Engineer, Director, Centro de Investigacion de Riesgos (Risk Research Center) Universidad de Falcon, Punto Fijo, Venezuela

norio okada, Professor and former Director, Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University; President of IDRiM Society, Kyoto, Japan

george Pararas-Carayannis, President, Tsunami Society International, Honolulu, USA

stefan Pickl, Chair for Operations Research Management, Safety & Security Alliance, COMTESSA Computer Science Faculty, Core Competence Center C3 for Operations Research, Universität der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany

saifur rahman, Director, Virginia Tech Advanced Research Institute, Arlington, USA

ortwin renn, Department of Social Sciences, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany

Christoph ritz, Head, ProClim Forum for Climate and Global Change, Bern, Switzerland

Badaoui m rouhban, Director, Section for Disaster Reduction, UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris, France

Jane e. rovins, Executive Director, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR), Beijing, China

haresh C. shah, Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus, Stanford University, Founder; Senior Advisor, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Stanford, USA

Peijun shi, Vice-President, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

shital hardik shukla, Assistant Professor, Sardar Patel Institute of Economic and Social Research, Ahemedabad, India

alois J. sieber, Head,Security Technology Assessment Unit, European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute, Ispra, Italy

Cletus i. springer, Director, Organization of American States, Department of Sustainable Development, Washington, USA

gerhard franz ulrich stoessel, Focal Point for Disaster Risk Reduction, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Bern, Switzerland

Jishnu subedi, Coordinator, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Nepal

helen T. sullivan, STARI Research Fellow and Department of Psychology Rider University, Lawrenceville, New Jersey, USA

annegret h. Thieken, German Committee for Disaster Reduction DKKV, Potsdam, Germany

Tan ngoh Tiong, Dean, School of Human Development and Social Services, SIM University, Singapore

Trias aditya, Assistant Professor, Department of Geodetic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Thomas usländer, Head of Department, Fraunhofer-Institute for Information and Data Processing (IITB), Department of Information Management, Karlsruhe, Germany

Bartel van de walle, President, ISCRAM Association and Associate Professor, Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands

eric veulliet, CEO, alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Technologies, Innsbruck, Austria

Christian wilhelm, Head Natural Hazards, Forestry Department Grisons, Chur, Switzerland

Detlof von winterfeldt, Director, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Qian ye, Professor, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

sidika Tekeli yesil, Consultant, Department of Health Services at Emergencies and Disasters, Ministry of Health of Turkey, Turkey

John n. zeppos, Deputy Director, Group BCM & ERM, COSMOTE Mobile Telecommunications S.A., Maroussi, Greece

iDrC DaVos 2012 sCienTiFiC anD TeChniCal aDVisorY CommiTTee iDrC DaVos 2012 sCienTiFiC anD TeChniCal aDVisorY CommiTTee

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Co-hosTing insTiTuTionsgsDP Global Systems Dynamics & Policy, Berlin, Germany

irg-P Integrated Risk Governance Project, Beijing, China

rCC Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, Munich, Germany

international organisations and initiativesalps GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria

foCP Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection, Bern, Switzerland

China earthquake administration, Beijing, China

CiPra Commission internationale pour la protection des Alpes, Schaan, Liechtenstein

CiTyneT The Regional Network of Local Authorities for the Management of Human Settlements, Yokohama, Japan

Council of europe, Strasbourg, France

DKKv German Committee for Disaster Prevention, Bonn, Germany

earth3000, Bierberstein, Germany

emi Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative, Quezon City, Philippines

eurocean European Centre for Information on Marine Science and Technology, Lisboa, Portugal

earsC European Association of Remote Sensing Companies, Brussels, Belgium

esC European Seismological Commission

gem Global Earthquake Model, Pavia, Italy

gemneT Global Emergency Medical Net, Geneva, Switzerland

gfmC The Global Fire Monitoring Center, Freiburg, Germany

greencross, Geneva, Switzerland

health Protection agency, London, England

iCCiP International Climate Change Information Programme, Hamburg, Germany

iCimoD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal

iCg International Centre for Geohazards, Oslo, Norway

iCPem Institute of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, Birmingham, UK

iCsu International Council for Science, Paris, France

international network of Crisis mappers

irDr Integrated Research on Disaster Risk International, Beijing, China

irgC International Risk Governance Council, Lausanne, Switzerland

isCram International Community on information Systems for Crisis Response And Management

iuCn International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland

Kwi Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities, Essen, Germany

mCii Munich Climate-Insurance Initiative, Munich, Germany

swiss society for earthquake engineering and structural Dynamics, Zurich, Switzerland

The international emergency management society, Brussels, Belgium

Tis innovation park ,Bolzano, Italy

Tsunami society international, Honolulu, USA

windber medical Center, Windber, USA

world vision switzerland, Dübendorf, Switzerland

universities and research institutionsCentre for Disaster risk management and Development studies Minna, Nigeria

Cir-uDefa Centro de Investigación de Riesgos - Universidad de Falcón, Venezuela

Disaster and emergency management Program, York University, York, Canada

Du university of Denver Gradutate school of social work, Denver, USA

Dmisa Disaster Management Institute of Southern Africa, Germiston, South Africa

DTu Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

CollaBoraTing insTiTuTions

IDRC CONFERENCESBiennial IDRC Davos

IDRC regional conferences and workshops

GLOBAL RISK FORUM GRF DAVOSRISK ACADEMYKnowledge managementContinuous education trainings

Research and development

Public awareness raisingE-Journals: IJDRR and Planet@Risk

PLATFORMGRF circles

Open circles

Closed meeting rooms

GRF Davos aims to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience for all types of risks and disasters to protect life, environment, critical infrastructure, property and all means of business for the worldwide community on a sustainable basis.

Multi measures approach along the risk cycle in integrative risk management

GLOBAL RISK FORUMGRF DAVOSFrom Thoughts to Action

by closely linking practice, science, policy and decision making in the search for sustainable solutions.

GRF booth at IDRC Davos 2012Wing A - Foyer www.grforum.org

Co-hosTing insTiTuTions anD CollaBoraTing insTiTuTions

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ePfl École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

istanbul Technical university Istanbul, Turkey

munich Center on governance, Communication, Public Policy and law Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Germany

ngi Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway

Psi Paul Scherrer institut, Villigen, Switzerland

sCnaT Swiss Academy of Sciences, Berne, Switzerland

Teri The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India

The hague Centre for strategic studies, The Hague, The Netherlands

umass Center for rebuilding sustainable communities after disasters, University of Massachusetts, Boston, USA

university of moratuwa, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

united nations university - institute for environment and human security (unu-ehs) Bonn, Germany

united nations university - institute for sustainability and Peace Tokyo, Japan

virginia Tech advanced research institute, Arlington, USA

wsl Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Become a sponsor of the movement

Climate Protection for AllYour sponsorship of «Climate Protection for All» enables Caritas Switzerland to help vulnerable groups such as small farmers to adapt their agricultural production sys-tem to the changing climatic conditions and enhance their capacities to prevent and cope with disasters. With only one Swiss franc per day, you make a concrete and important contribution to helping the poorest of the poor to be better prepared for disasters and climate change.

www.caritas.ch/sponsorship

Klimaschutz_Inserat_185x123_e.indd 1 25.07.12 15:56

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Short CV’s of the plenary speakers are available on the website: http://www.idrc.info

urs amiet, Senior USAR Advisor, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland

walter J. ammann, President, GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerland

marwan Bader ahmad alsmeiat, Colonel, MBA BA, Jordanian Civil Defense, Initial Project Manager of the JOR IEC-Team, Am-man, Jordan

alice Balbo, Global Adaptation Coordinator and “Resilient Cities”- Project Manager, ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Bonn, Germany

greg Bankoff, Professor University of Hull, Cottingham, United Kingdom (tbc)

Jeff Baranyi, Public Safety Technology Lead, ESRI, Broomfield, USA

andré Bationo, Senior Resource Mobilization Officer at AGRA, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, Nairobi, Kenya

esther Baur, Director of Communications and Head of Issue Management & Messages, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerland

heather Bell, Science Advisor, Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Hawaii, USA

manuel Bessler, Ambassador, Head of the Humanitarian Aid Department, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland

Jörn Birkmann, PD, Head of Section, United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany

h.e. mr. najib Boulif, Ministre délégué auprès du Premier Ministre, Chargé des affaires générales et de la gouvernance, Government of Morocco, Rabat, Morocco

albrecht Broemme, President, Technisches Hilfswerk THW, Bonn, Germany

mike Bushell, Principal Scientific Advisor, Syngenta, Basel, Switzerland

wendy Cue, Chief, Environmental Emergencies Section, Joint UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva, Switzerland

ambassador martin Dahinden, Director General, Swiss Development and Cooperation Agency SDC, Berne, Switzerland

eric Des marais, Adjunct Faculty Graduate School of Social Work University of Denver, Denver, USA

Craig Duncan, Senior Programme Officer, UN-ISDR, Geneva, Switzerland

stefan engler, Senator of the Canton of Grisons at the Swiss Federal State Council, Surava, Switzerland

marco ferrari, Dr., Member of the Board of Directors of GRF Davos, Former Chair of the Drafting Committee for the Hyogo Framework for Action, Thun, Switzerland

marco ferroni, Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland

walter fust, former Ambassador Swiss Government, Hessigkofen, Switzerland

andreas götz, President, Swiss National Platform for Natural Hazard Reduction PLANAT, Vice-Director Federal Office for Environment, FOEN, Berne, Switzerland

edgar grande, Prof., Chair for Comparative Policy Analysis, University of Munich, and Board Member Munich Center on Governance, Munich, Germany

David harper, Special Adviser to the Assistant Director-General for Health Security and Environment, World Health Organization Headquarters WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.

Jack harrald, Professor and Director a.i. Center for Community Security and Resilience, Virginia Tech, Arlington, USA

linda hornisberger, MD Vet., Senior Search Expert, Swiss Disaster Dog Association (REDOG), Switzerland

Carlo Jäger, Professor for Economy, PIK Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

russ Johnson, Director of Public Safety, ESRI, Redlands, USA

Kirk Junker, Prof., Chair International Master of Environmental Science, and Chair in US American Law, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany

Daniel Kull, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, Geneva Representative of the World Bank/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Geneva, Switzerland

ryan lanclos, Disaster Management Industry Manager, ESRI, Redlands, USA

Thomas loster, Chairman Munich Re Foundation, Munich, Germany

uwe lübken, Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, Munich, Germany

Dario luna, Ministry of Finance, Government of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico

John D. macomber, Prof., Senior Lecturer in Finance and Real Estate and Gloria A. Dauten Real Estate Fellow, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA

michael J. manfredo, Professor and Department Head, Human Dimensions of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO, USA

Diana mangalagiu, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford United Kingdom, and Professor of Strategy at Reims Management School, Reims, France

Plenary sPeaKers franz mauelshagen, Deputy Director, Kulturwissenschaftliches Institut KWI, Essen, Germany

rudi mueller, Chief Emergency Services Branch, UN OCHA, Geneva, Switzerland

virginia murray, Head, Extreme Events and Health Protection, UK Health Protection Agency, London, United Kingdom

h.e. ms maria mutagamba, Minister of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities, Governement of Uganda, Kampala, Uganda

David nabarro, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition, and the UN System Influenza Coordinator, Geneva, Switzerland

Paul ouédraogo, Senior Regional Advisor for Africa, RAMSAR Convention, Gland, Switzerland

martyn Parker, Chairman Global Partnerships, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerland

Tso-Chien Pan, Professor, Founding Executive Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

louis Pauly, Professor, Canada Research Chair in Globalization and Governance and Professor of Political Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

wendi Pedersen, GIS analyst and a rapid mapping expert, UNOSAT, United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), Geneva, Switzerland

h.e. ms ama i. Pepple, CFR, Federal Minister of Land, Housing and Urban Development, Abuja, Nigeria

stefan wolfgang Pickl, Prof. , Chair for Operations Research COMTESSA, Department of Computer Science, Universität der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany

roger s. Pulwarty, Dr., Director, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, USA

h.e. mr. Thiruvanchoor radhakrishnan, Minister for Home Affairs, Kerala, India

sulton rahimov, First Deputy Minister of Melioration and Water Resources, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Joaquin ramirez, Principal Consultant, DTS Wildfire, Orlando, USA

andreas rechkemmer, Prof., Chief Science and Policy Advisor, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerland

ortwin renn, Professor and Chair, Environmental Sociology and Technology Assessment, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany

Joao ribeiro, General Director INGC Mozambique

victoria a. rockwell, President, American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASME, New York, U.S.A. (tbc)

Badaoui rouhban, Director, Section for Disaster Reduction, UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris, France

haresh C. shah, Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus, Stanford University, Founder and Senior Advisor Risk Management Solutions, RMS Inc., Stanford, USA

hamzeh shakib, Professor, Tarbait Modares University, Tehran, I.R. Iran

Peijun shi, Professor Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

anthony oliver smith, Professor University of Florida, Gainesville, USA

Charles steger, President, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USA

Christoph stueckelberger, Professor, Dr., Executive Director and Founder Globethics.net, Geneva, Switzerland

Bron Taylor, Professor University of Forida, Gainesville, USA

muralee Thummarukudy, Senior Programme Officer, Post-Conflict and Disaster Management Branch, United Nations Environ-ment Programme, Geneva, Switzerland

simon Tschurr, Rapid Response, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland

simon valär, President Municipal Council, City of Davos, Davos, Switzerland

sander van der leeuw, Dean & Professor, School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Phoenix, USA

Carmen vogt, Policy Advisor for Urban Development, German Development Cooperation (GIZ) GmbH, Eschborn, Germany

margareta wahlström, Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland

Cathy watson, Livestock Emergency Guidelines and Standards (LEGS) Coordinator, Addis Abbeba, Ethopia

James herbert williams, Dean and Milton Morris Endowed Chair, Graduate School of Social Work, University of Denver, Denver, USA

simon young, Manager CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, Bridgetown, Barbados

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Digital globeDigitalGlobe owns and operates the most agile and sophisticated constellation of high-resolution commercial earth imaging satellites. QuickBird, WorldView-1 and WorldView-2 together are capable of collecting over 900 million km² of quality imagery per year with intraday revisit around the globe. Come to our booth, you will learn how our satellite constellation is used to monitor natural and manmade major disasters as well as monitoring of civil unrest, refugee displacement and military operation on a global scale.www.digitalglobe.com

elsevierElsevier is a world-leading publisher of scientific, technical and medical information products and services. The company works in partnership with the global science and health communities to publish more than 2,000 journals, including The Lancet and Cell, and close to 20,000 book titles, including major reference works from Mosby and Saunders. Elsevier’s online solutions include ScienceDirect, Scopus, Reaxys, MD Consult and Nursing Consult, which enhance the productivity of science and health professionals, and the SciVal suite and MEDai’s Pinpoint Review, which help research and health care institutions deliver better outcomes more cost-effectively. A global business headquartered in Amsterdam, Elsevier employs 7,000 people worldwide.http://www.elsevier.com

esri- The gis softwareESRI is an exciting company doing important work. Their technology enables organizations to create responsible and sustainable solutions to problems at local and global scales.ESRI, believes that geography is at the heart of a more resilient and sustainable future. Governments, industry leaders, academics, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) trust ESRI to connect them with the analytic knowledge they need to make these critical decisions that shape the planet.www.esri.com

european Commission Joint research Centre JrCAs the Commission’s in-house science service, the Joint Research Centre’s mission is to provide EU policies with independent, evidence-based scientific and technical support throughout the whole policy cycle.The JRC helps to strengthen the EU’s resilience to crises and disasters through its research in crisis management technologies, structural assessment of buildings, protection of critical infrastructures, disaster risk analysis, situational awareness and early warning.http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/

Fire watch international agFire Watch international AG was founded in December 2007 Switzerland. FWI AG was incorporated to market a new technology, developed in close cooperation with the Fire Management Center SDIS13 at Marseille since 2004. The business target is focused on long range sensor system to survey and detect different sources of environmental hazards. The major commercial product is based on the optical automated smoke detection system “Forest Ranger” which can be implemented into sophisticated computerized fire management systems and procedures. http://www.fire-watch.ch

Food and agricultural organization Faowww.fao.org

global risk Forum grF Davoswww.grforum.org

unDP’s global risk information Programme (griP)Hosted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), GRIP is a multi-stakeholder initiative that aims to promote sustainable development by reducing the impacts of natural disasters in high risk countries. With the mission of providing “better risk information for sound decision making”, GRIP facilitates the generation of evidence-based risk information, and its application to policy and decision making. Officially launched as a United Nations’ International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR) Thematic Platform for Risk Identification in 2007 at the 1st session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, GRIP is supporting worldwide activities to identify and monitor disaster risks.http://www.gripweb.org

iClei- local governments for sustainabilityICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability is an association of over 1220 local government members who are committed to sustainable development. Our members come from 70 different countries and represent more than 569,885,000 people.ICLEI is an international association of local governments as well as national and regional local government organizations who have made a commitment to sustainable development.ICLEI provides technical consulting, training, and information services to build capacity, share knowledge, and support local government in the implementation of sustainable development at the local level. Our basic premise is that locally designed initiatives can provide an effective and cost-efficient way to achieve local, national, and global sustainability objectives. www.iclei.org

international Conference on integrated natural Disaster management inDmThe 5th International Conference on Integrated Natural Disaster Management (INDM 2012) will be held in Tehran on December 16 -17 2012 in collaboration with national and international organizations.The Conference aims to bring together experts from various fields related to risk management to collate information on different aspects of risk prevention and reduction and risk management. Our past achievements in four previous INDM conferences were made possible by strong dedication and sincere contribution of experts, researchers and consultants worldwide. INDM Organizing Committee looks forward to continue these collaborations and hope that the upcoming INDM conference provides a forum for a new direction in hazard and risk management and DRR in the world. www.indm2012.org

international Federation of red Cross and red Crescent societies iFrCAs the world’s largest humanitarian relief and development network, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has significant knowledge and experience in implementing community-based disaster risk

reduction (CBDRR) programmes. Building safe and resilient communities is at the heart of these CBDRR programmes. The humanitarian relief and recovery operation following the Tsunami in 2004 provided IFRC with a unique opportunity to analyse the two key challenges in implementation of its programmes; a) to gauge how we articulate resilience in a meaningful way to the target communities of CBDRR programmes and the CBDRR practitioners and b) to identify the critical factors conducive to the achievement of the needed impact and sustainability in implementing CBDRR programmes in support of resilience building. In 2010-2011 IFRC commissioned studies on community resilience and critical factors conducive to resilience building. These studies resulted in the production of reports on a) characteristics of a safe and resilient community; b) key determinants of a successful community-based disaster risk reduction programme; and c) lessons learned.

On display in the IFRC exhibition will be the reports of these resilience studies as well as various publications and CD’s on disaster risk reduction activities in support of community safety and resilience. Among publications are case studies of cost benefit analysis, guidelines on vulnerability and capacity analysis, early warning, public education, climate change adaptation and mitigation, community-based programmes for disaster preparedness, livelihoods, food and nutrition security, etc.www.ifrc.org

istanbul seismic risk mitigation and emergency Preparedness Project (ismeP)Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) was established under the roof of Istanbul Governorship and project conducted by Istanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU). ISMEP consists of three components, which are;• Increasing the Emergency Preparedness• Reduction of Seismic Risk for Priority Public Buildings• Application of Building CodesWithin the scope of the exhibition it is aimed to present of ISMEP via journals, CD’s and relevant activities.http://www.ipkb.gov.tr

kockum sonicsKockum Sonics has its roots in the early days of industrialisation. Over the years we have delivered innovative design solutions for marine and industrial applications worldwide. Kockum Sonics, Alarm Concept, TYFON ®, is an electro dynamic sound emitter system for Civil Defense, Industrial Alarm, Tsunami Alarm, Port Facilities, Gas Terminals, Chemical Plants, Water and Flood Alarms and more.Kockum Sonics sound emitter system gives you a maintenance free modern technology suitable for all environmentsOur strength is your benefit!http://www.kockumsonics.com

northumbria universityhttp://www.northumbria.ac.uk

nrs internationalhttp://www.nrs-international.com

Ökozentrum (Centre of appropriate Technology and social ecology) Ökozentrum (Centre of Appropriate Technology and Social Ecology) is a pioneering competence centre for sustainable

development. For more than 30 years, we have been developing technical innovations and promoting social action education. In development cooperation we work on projects for energy efficiency and renewable energy. We focus on food processing with renewable energy, transforming organic waste into energy and adapted climatisation for buildings with the goal of North-South cooperation by means of know-how transfer, capacity building and innovation.www.oekozentrum.ch

Partnership for environment and Disaster reduction PeDDrThe Partnership for Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction (PEDRR) is a global alliance of UN agencies, NGOs and specialist institutes. PEDRR seeks to promote and scale-up implementation of ecosystem management approaches for disaster risk reduction and ensure it is mainstreamed in development planning at global, national and local levels, in line with the Hyogo Framework for Action. This exhibition booth offers key publications on ecosystem-based DRR, posters, videos and other information materials from PEDRR partners.http://pedrr.net

rachel Carson Center for environment & society (rCC)The goal of the Rachel Carson Center is to further research and discussion in the field of international environmental studies and to strengthen the role of the humanities in the current political and scientific debates about the environment. One of its six research clusters focuses on natural disasters and cultures of risk. The exhibition gives an overview of the research conducted by Carson Fellows within this field. Therefore, a variety of books and information material will be presented.www.carsoncenter.uni-muenchen.de/index.html

reDogREDOG is a not-for-profit humanitarian organization. This association provides the Swiss confederation and cantons with certificated teams of specialists in the field of rubble retrieval and site-search for in-and outland deployments 365 days a year. As a member of the rescue chain, REDOG has been acknowledged by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and disposes of deployment experience in humanitarian disaster operations. REDOG is moreover member of the Swiss Red Cross as well as a partner organization of the air-rescue organization REGA and the Alpine Rescue Switzerland (RSC). REDOG is further a section of the Swiss Cynologic Association.The dog’s nose – the best tracking tool: When an earthquake destroys cities or when an explosion leads to the collapse of a house, the chance of survival for buried people may depend on the deployment of disaster dogs. Up to the present day, the dog’s nose represents the most reliable tracking tool to localize human scent under meters thick rubble. Besides training teams of disaster dogs, REDOG further trains so called all-terrain search dogs, whose noses also is of precious use when latter haphazardly locate missing persons on hard to access or unclear terrain.no description at the time of printing

rhaetian railways (rhB) Bernina express - From glaciers to palmsExperience one of the most spectacular ways to cross the Alps: The Albula and Bernina lines of the Rhaetian Railway. This winding mountain railway connects northern and southern Europe without the use of a toothed-wheel mechanism. A

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particular high-point of the ride is the panoramic view from the Bernina Express, as it passes mighty glaciers on its descent to a land of swaying palmsSince summer 2008, the section between Thusis and Tirano has been classed as a UNESCO World Heritage site. A milestone in our history. www.rhb.ch/berninaexpress royal roads universityLocated in Victoria, British Columbia, Royal Roads University is a unique public university that delivers quality applied and professional programs designed to advance students and professionals in a world increasingly driven by knowledge and innovation. We offer a wide range of graduate and undergraduate degrees in Business and Management, Communication, Conflict and Emergency Management, Education Studies, Environment and Sustainability, Leadership, Tourism and Hospitality Management and Executive Education. www.royalroads.ca

swiss Federal office for Civil Protection FoCPThe Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP analyses hazards and threats and develops measures to protect the population, its vital resources and cultural property as best as possible from the effects of disasters, emergencies and terrorist attacks; aims to provide comprehensive protection of the population from nuclear, biological and chemical hazards; ensures that in the event of a disaster the relevant authorities and operational bodies are alerted immediately and provided with all necessary information; supports the cantons in relation to civil protection training and also runs its own training courses; supports the cantons with the development and maintenance of the infrastructure needed to protect, alert and guide the population.www.bevoelkerungsschutz.admin.ch

swiss reOperating in more than 20 countries, and with a presence on all continents, Swiss Re is one of the world’s largest and most diversified reinsurers. It complements a proven reinsurance portfolio for Property & Casualty and Life & Health with insurance-based corporate finance solutions and services for comprehensive risk management.

www.swissre.com

swiss Vacuumwww.swissvacuum.com

syngenta Foundation for sustainable agricultureThe Syngenta Foundation aims to create value for resource-poor small farmers in developing countries through innovation in sustainable agriculture and the activation of value chains.The foundation works with partners in developing countries and emerging markets. Their aim is to help small farmers become more professional growers by extending science-based know-how, facilitating access to quality inputs, and linking smallholders to markets in profitable ways. This adds value for rural communities, and sustainably improves food security.The Syngenta Foundation focuses on productivity and the inclusion of farmers in remunerative value chains. The focus is on ‘pre-commercial’ farmers, often in semi-arid areas, who display potential for agricultural growth.www.syngentafoundation.org

The united nations office for Disaster reduction unisDrInvest today for a safer tomorrow: The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) provides evidence and tools for building the resilience of nations and communities to disaster and advocates for increased investment for local action. Learn more about the Hyogo Framework for Action and consultations on the post-2015 framework agreement, the Global Platform and Global Assessment Report for Disaster Risk Reduction, and how to get involved in the Making Cities Resilient ‘My city is getting ready!’ world disaster reduction campaign and PreventionWeb.www.unisdr.org

The world BankEstablished in 2006, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is a partnership of 42 countries and eight international organizations committed to helping developing countries reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and adapt to climate change. The partnership’s mission is to mainstream disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) in country development strategies by supporting a country-led and managed implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). www.worldbank.org

Trunz water systemswww.trunzwatersystems.com

IDRC Post-Conference: GRF Davos Business Continuity Business Continuity through Integrative Risk Management –Prepare for the Unexpected in Times of International Crisis

31 August 2012 - Davos - Switzerland

The complexities of modern business in a globalized world and the pervasive e�ects of hazards and disasters are posing new and dynamic challenges to the private as well as to the public sector. From supply chain management to e�ective communi-cation with the general public and share-

Who should attend?

Mainly addressed are the infrastructure and service sectors (energy, water, food, transportation, finance, investment, insurance/reinsurance, etc.). Representatives of both private and the public sector are equally encouraged to join the event.

Fees: EUR 100.00 incl. conference material, lunch and coffee breaks

Organized by: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos

In close collaboration with and supported by: COSMOTE Mobile Telecommunications S.A, Athens, Greece

Register now!

The registration for the event is still open, but the number of available spaces is limited. Register now directly at the IDRC Davos 2012 registration desk.

Venue: Congress Centre Davos, Room Dischma, Talstrasse 49a, 7270 Davos Platz

Under the patronage of: the International Labour Organisation ILO

Endorsed by: The Business Continuity Institute BCI

Programme available at: http://businesscontinuity.idrc.info

holders, from crisis coordination to reputa-tion management, business continuity is a rapidly developing �eld. This one-day symposium will examine the trends and challenges in BCM, consider recent experi-ence of business crises, and present some examples of good practice in this �eld.

Der ideale Ausgangspunkt für Wander- und Biketouren, Nordic Walking oder Spaziergänge.

CH-7265 Davos Wolfgang Telefon +41 (0)81 417 07 07

Alle 30 Minuten Busverbindung von und nach Davos. Im Sommer freie Fahrt auf allen Bergbahnen und weitere Vergünstigungen mit der Davos Inclusive Card.

365 Tageim Jahr offen

[email protected]@kessler-kulm.ch

www.hochdrei.ch

Nebenanund trotzdem mittendrin

Nebenanund trotzdem mittendrin

www.hochdrei.ch

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Friday 24 august 2012

Thursday 23 august 2012

saturday 25 august 2012

wednesday 22 august 2012

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9:00-17:00 SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH summit(by invitation only)

pre-conference External

9:00-17:00 SDC internal training courseRisk sharing and insurances (by invitation only)


9:00-21:00 Pre-conference 3rd VT international conferenceon community resilience (by invitation only)






9:00-12:00 Pre-conference 3rd VT international conferenceon community resilience (by invitation only)








Federal Department of Foreign Affairs FDFA

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Switzerland takes action SDC –Street events from 26 – 28 August 2012 in front of the Davos Congress Centre For over 50 years Switzerland's Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Aid has been committed to reducing poverty, relieving suffering and promoting sustainable use of natural resources. To mark the UN's year of 'Sustainable Energy for All' in 2012 The Swiss Agency for Cooperation and Development SDC is inviting all those interested to accompany it on a journey of discovery through thematic areas such as water, scarcity of natural resources, food security, environment and natural disasters. Learn more about the Swiss contribution to international development. The example of brick production: by using simple, locally manufactured hand presses men, women, and even children can produce the bricks needed to build their own houses. This means they are not just aid recipients, but active participants in the reconstruction process.

Presentation at the Street Event 2011 Project in Sudanese refugee camp, Chad

Switzerland also makes a large national and international contribution to USAR (urban search and rescue), and has chaired the UN-INSARAG (UN International Search and Rescue Advisory Group) since its inception in 1991. As part of the SDC street events, you are warmly invited to participate in the simulated rescue of victims trapped beneath rubble. The simulated rescue will be carried out by experts of the Swiss charitable organisation of search and rescue dog-handlers, REDOG, and their dogs together with trained members of the rescue service of the Swiss Armed Forces and members of the SHA. Perhaps you would also like to experience the world under rubble from below?

Simulation at the Street Event 2011 Swiss Rescue in operation, Earthquake Indonesia in 2009

Rescuing life through good cooperation - this is the basic tenet of INSARAG. INSARAG supports the Federal Emergency Authority in coordinating all players for the benefit of those in need of help. Get to know the broad range of civil defence services offered by the Local Emergency Authority.

DAVOS DIALOGUESInterested to share your thoughts on the plenary sessions?

GRF Davos invites you to join the daily Davos Dialogues which is a topical meeting point for anyone to meet and continue discussions during lunchtime. The moderated discussions aim to enrich the IDRC Davos 2012 outcomes. Topics to discuss are related to the plenary sessions and change on a daily basis.

Moderation: David Alexander, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos

Location: Poster Exhibition Area, Foyer C1

Time: 12:30-12.50 from Monday, 27. to Thursday, 30. August 2012

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monday 27 august 2012



12:30-13:00 SDC Street Event - Swiss engagement in Development and Cooperation – Exhibition opening ceremony

Entrance

14:00-15:30 Resilient development practice – from fragmentation towards integration; from theory into action

workshop Wisshorn

Vulnerability and natural hazards session Seehorn

Elsevier author workshop workshop Sertig

Understanding your risk environment workshop Sanada 1

Education and training in DRR session Flüela

15:30-16:oo Coffee break

16:00-19:30 Conference opening - Risk award - Plenary: From Thoughts to Action: Research, Education, Training and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

plenary Davos

19:30-20:30 Welcome reception

08:30-10:00 Mega disasters with cascading effects plenary Davos

10:00-10:30 Coffee break

10:30-12:00 Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) - improved preparedness through capacity development of national emergency services

plenary Davos

12:00-13:00 Lunch break

12:30-12:50 Davos Dialogues: mega disasters with cascading effects Foyer C1

13:00-14:30 Swiss Early Warning System for natural hazards session Dischma

Socio economic aspects of natural hazards session Flüela

Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness PART 1

session Aspen 1

Global exposure monitoring for multi-hazards risk assessments session Seehorn

Governance and decision making in DRR session Wisshorn

Increasing disaster resilience through participative development of standards in land management, urban planning and construction

workshop Sanada 2

Integrative risk management approaches session Sanada 1

14:30-14:40 Break

14:40-16:10 Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: A governance point of view

session Seehorn

Mobilising the creation of a risk governance culture session Flüela

Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness PART 2

session Aspen 1

Panel discussion on education for disaster risk reduction session Dischma

Megadisasters and cascading effects session Wisshorn

sunday 26 august 2012

Time session type room

Integrative earthquake risk management session Sanada 1

Capacity Building for Social-Ecological Resilience session Sanada 2

Mass casualty incidents – lessons learned session Sertig


16:40-18:10 Understanding Disasters - Geospatial Technologies in Risk Reduction and Disaster Management

plenary Davos

18:10-18:40 Reception

18:40-20:10 Risk communication session Flüela

Progress and new initiatives in IRG Project/IHDP session Sertig

Challenges and opportunities in building a resilient city session Seehorn

Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management

session Wisshorn

08:30-10:00 ESS project – technical and conceptual challenges session Dischma

Natural hazard resilient cities session Flüela

Integrative risk management - Examples from member organisations of the Swiss NGO DRR Platform on how to increase resilience

session Sertig

Early warning in disaster risk reduction session Seehorn

Information and communication technologies for risk management session Wisshorn

Integrative tsunami risk management session Sanada 1


10:30-12:00 Country Risk Management and Financial Preparedness for Disasters plenary Davos

12:00-12:20 Financial Risks vs. Financing Resilience - A Debate between Louis Pauly and John Macomber

open stage Davos


12:30-12:50 Davos Dialogues: The use of new technologies in Drr Foyer C1

13:00-14:30 Same problem – different solutions session Dischma

Social media and linguistics as part of an integrative risk management session Flüela

Natech risk reduction after the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami session Sertig

Special Swiss Re session on Economics of Disasters – Costs and Financing mechanisms

session Seehorn

Mapping tools for risk management session Wisshorn

Local actions and community empowerment session Sanada 1

Assessement and decision making in risk management session Sanada 2

14:30-14:40 Break

14:40-16:10 Public empowerment policies for crisis management workshop Dischma

Tuesday 28 august 2012


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“Taking preparedness seriously” – Revisiting the gaps and challenges in linking early warning and timely response between community and government levels

session Flüela

Capacity building and awareness session Sertig

Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction: Moving from Theory to Practice session Sanada 1

Environmental changes and health implications session Wisshorn

Critical Infrastructures I session Seehorn


16:40-18:10 Urban Risks and Resilience plenary Davos

18:10-18:30 Launch of the Handbook for Local Government Leaders in Farsi, Chinese, Spanish, Russian and French

open stage Davos

18:10-19:30 Risk financing and sharing poster Foyer C1

Integrated seismic risk management poster Foyer C1

Mountain risks poster Foyer C1

Education and capacity building poster Foyer C1

Urban risk poster Foyer C1

Risk, society and culture poster Foyer C1

Ecosystem based approaches poster Foyer C1

Flood risks poster Foyer C1

18:30-19:15 GIS for Disaster Management workshop Dischma

Public private partnership approaches session Flüela

19:30-21:00 Open Forum on Risk and Society plenary Davos

wednesday 29 august 2012

08:30-10:00 Ubiquitous technology to facilitate preparedness, practice, and situational awareness before, during, and after disasters

workshop Dischma

European critical infrastructures: which analysis framework for supporting effective decision making?

session Flüela

A converging vision of resilience building between the private sector and civil society

session Sertig

Climate change, migration and displacement (RCC) session Seehorn

Critical infrastructures II session Wisshorn

Risk in urban areas session Sanada 1


10:30-12:00 Global Risks – an Integrated Governance Approach plenary Davos

Disasters, Environment and Migration plenary Aspen

12:00-12:20 Open stage: The Colorado Wildfires 2012: Exposing the risk of re-rural migration in the Western U.S. by Michael Manfredo

open stage Davos

12:00-13:00 Lunch break Davos


12:30-12:50 Davos Dialogues: urban risks and resilience Foyer C1

13:00-14:30 Collectors, coordinators and directors - Innovation in the management of disasters workshop Dischma

Integrated risk assessment: what kind of multi-risk analysis to support the risk reduction decision-making process?

session Flüela

Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world session Sertig

Rio+20 and The Future of Sustainability and Disaster Risk Reduction session Aspen

Climate change: impacts, preparadness and adaptation session Wisshorn

Ecosystem based approaches and engineering measures session Sanada 1

14:30-14:40 Break

14:40-16:10 The benefits of standardisation in reducing seismic risk session Dischma

Improved Risk information to support sound policy/decision making processes – The UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme, GRIP’s experience

session Sanada 2

Risk, society and culture (RCC) session Sertig

Scenarios and models in DRR session Seehorn

Special Swiss Re session on Financial Tools for Disaster Risk Management session Wisshorn

Agriculture, land degradation and drought session Sanada 1


16:40-17:25 Supporting resilient systems for one health, food security and nutrition: participatory risk reduction at critical interfaces

keynote Davos

17:25-18:55 Risk in Agriculture plenary Davos

18:55-19:15 International Year of Water Cooperation, 2013: Mainstreaming Water Cooperation into Water related Disaster Risk Reduction by Sulton Rahimov

open stage Davos

18:55-20:00 Critical infrastructures poster Foyer C1

Business continuity management poster Foyer C1

Disaster and crisis management poster Foyer C1

Local action and community empowerment poster Foyer C1

Prepardness and early warning poster Foyer C1

Risk governance poster Foyer C1

Climate change adaptation & disaster risk reduction poster Foyer C1

Health and medical interventions within emergency situations poster Foyer C1

19:15-20:00 GIS for Disaster Management workshop Dischma

Business continuity management session Flüela


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Thursday 30 august 2012

08:30-10:00 Towards a safer world: a whole-of-society approach to disaster preparedness workshop aspen

Recent and future developments in EU Security Research. From a counter-terrorism focus towards a wider support for natural and accidental large scale crisis or disasters. All hazard approach.

session Dischma

Disaster risk reduction in the Hindu Kush – Himalayan Region session Flüela

The evolution of seismic ‘real time’ early warning and ‘reliable’ seismic prediction’ science

session Sertig


10:30-12:00 Linking One Health and the Hyogo Framework for Action plenary Davos


12:30-12:50 Davos Dialogues: The one health paradigm and its context to the hfa Foyer C1

13:00-14:30 Financing the green transformation: opportunities and challenges ahead session Dischma

“Making the Connection” – Practical experiences on linking disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and ecosystem management

session Flüela

Monitoring and modelling for risk management session Sertig

Tackling risk in agriculture session Seehorn

Health within disaster risk reduction session Wisshorn

Local actions and community empowerment II session Sanada 1

14:30-14:40 Break

14:40-16:10 The future of alerting the public – Discussion of human behavior, information expectations and technology use in an intercultural context

workshop Dischma

Integrative flood risk management session Flüela

Water security: responses to local, regional, and global challenges session Sertig

Critical infrastructures III session Seehorn

Medical emergencies session Wisshorn

The evaluation of UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme – Analyzing the results and findings of a forward looking evaluation process

session Sanada 1


16:40-18:10 The Future of Integrative Risk Management plenary Davos

18:10-18:30 Closing ceremony Davos

19:00-23:00 Conference dinner Berghotel Schatzalp

8:45-16:30 GRF Davos business continuity summit post-conference Dischma


Contribute to the iDrC Davos 2012 outcomes:

All participants are invited to go to the Red Chair video booth and make a well-focussed statement lasting 1-2 minutes.

All statements will be published daily on the GRF Davos website and in GRF Davos social media sections. The Red Chair statements will contribute to the input to the 4th UNISDR Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction next year in Geneva.

Location: Exhibition area, Level Talstrasse (in front of room Forum)

Red ChairUse the Red Chair to make a statement on risk and disaster reduction!

Join GRF Davos on:

agenDa aT a glanCe reD Chair

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1 Digital Globe 2 Elsevier 3 ESRI- The GIS Software 4 European Commission Joint Research Centre JRC 5 Fire Watch International AG 6 Food and Agricultural Organization FAO 7 Global Risk Forum GRF Davos 8 UNDP’s Global Risk Information Programme (GRIP) 9 ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability10 International Conference on Integrated Natural Disaster Management INDM11 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IFRC12 Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP)13 Kockumsonics14 Northumbria University15 nrs international16 Ökozentrum (Centre of Appropriate Technology and Social Ecology) 17 Partnership for Environment and Disaster Reduction PEDDR18 Rachel Carson Center for Environment & Society (RCC)19 REDOG20 Rhaetian Railways (RhB) Bernina Express - From glaciers to palms21 Royal Roads University22 Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP23 Swiss Re24 Swiss Vacuum25 Syngenta Foundation for sustainable agriculture26 United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction UN-ISDR27 The World Bank28 Trunz Water Systems

see page 14 - 16 for detailed information on the exhibitors

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ACT or REACT?Papadopoulou on Climate Change & Climate Refugeessee page 64 for more information

PORTRAITS of GLOBAL CHANGE Risk, Environment and Human Mobilitysee page 64 for more information

Congress CenTer maPs Congress CenTer maPs

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risk award 2012: award ceremony during the opening of iDrC Davos 2012, sunday 26 aug.2012, 16:00

Foyer

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The topic for the next Risk Award will be published during the 4th UNISDR Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, 19-23 May 2013, Geneva, Switzerland

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SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH Summit (by invitation only)External


SDC internal training courseRisk sharing and insurances (by invitation only)External



Pre-Conference3rd VT International conference on community resilience (by invitation only)External



Pre-Conference3rd VT International conference on community resilience (by invitation only)External


wednesday 22.aug.2012

Thursday 23.aug.2012

Friday 24.aug.2012

saturday 25.aug.2012

sunday 26.aug.2012

9:00-17:00Room

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DeTaileD Programme

Registration

SDC Street Event - Swiss engagement in Development and Cooperation – Exhibition opening ceremonyEntrance of the conference center

Workshop: resilient development practice – from fragmentation towards integration; from theory into actionWorkshop organized by World VisionWisshornstephen J. laTham; World Vision, Switzerland Session: vulnerability and natural hazardsSeehornDavid alexanDer; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, SwitzerlandKaren i suDmeier-rieux; UNEP, Francealan Peter marCh; University of Melbourne; Human settlement indices for bushfire risk in Australiaasimiyu mohammed JinaDu; Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; Rural hazards and vulnerability assessment in the downstream sector of Shiroro dam, Nigeriagenevieve Taylor; University of Canterbury, New Zealand; EU disaster risk reduction in the Asia Pacific: reducing the social vulnerability of childrenyaoJie yue; School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Vulnerability assessment of cotton to hail in China based on historical records, field investigation and ground experimentsChiho oChiai; Kyoto University, Japan; A study on the various types of community-based disaster management in mid-sized cities in Japan: a case study from Saijo Cityshuai he; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Social vulnerability to natural hazards in ChinaPaola salvaTi; CNR - IRPI, Italy, Republic of; Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy

Workshop: elsevier author workshopWorkshop organized by Elsevier Earth & Environmental SciencesSertigKatherine Claire eve; Publisher, Elsevier Earth & Environmental Sciences

Workshop: understanding your risk environmentWorkshop organized by LootokSanada 1sean murPhy; Lootok, United States of America

Session: education and training in DrrFlüelamadeleine ColBerT; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerlandyasamin o. izaDKhah; International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran, Islamic Republic ofhideyuki shiroshiTa; Kansai University, Japan; Volunteers in disaster education centres: another important role of disaster education centresralf Josef Johanna Beerens; Netherlands Institute for Safety (NIFV) – Research Department (The Netherlands); Maximise your returns in crisis management preparedness: a cyclic approach to training and exercisessheng Chang; School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Training programs for risk reduction of typhoon disaster chains in southeast coastal region of Chinahelga KromP-KolB; BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria; The risk of the wrong priorities in university educationKatharina anna KalTenBrunner; Department of Social and Business Sciences, Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Austria; Dynamic potential in disaster exercises: identification – development – evaluationhideyuki shiroshiTa; Kansai University, Japan; What kind of disaster education should be explored after the Great East Japan Earthquake? COFFEE BREAK

12:00-18:00

12:30-13:00

Location

14:00-15:30

RoomConvenor

14:00-15:30RoomChairChairSpeakers

14:00-15:30 RoomConvenor


14:00-15:30RoomChairChair

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15:30-16:00

sunday 26.aug. 2012

DeTaileD Programme weDnesDaY 22. To sunDaY 26. aug. 2012 DeTaileD Programme sunDaY 26. aug. 2012

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opening ceremonyDavos

Featuring Music Part 1: Roger WIDMER, Tenor: Serenata by Pietro Mascagni, accompanied by Stefan WIRTH, Piano

official opening statementswalter J. ammann; President, GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerlandambassador martin DahinDen; Director General, Swiss Development and Cooperation Agency SDC, Berne, Switzerlandstefan engler; Senator, Canton of Grisons, Chur, Switzerland (tbc)simon valÄr; President Municipal Council, City of Davos, Davos, Switzerland

opening keynote addressesmargareta wahlsTrÖm; Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland; “Managing Disaster Risk for Resilience in the 21st Century”andreas gÖTz; President, Swiss National Platform for Natural Hazard Reduction PLANAT, Vice-Director Federal Office for Environment ,FOEN, Berne, Switzerland; “The Swiss Strategy”Featuring Music Part 2: Roger WIDMER, Tenor: Ständchen by Franz Schubert, accompanied by Stefan WIRTH, Piano

munich re foundation risk award (see page 28)Offered by Munich Re Foundation and organized together with UNISDR and GRF Davos, the biennial Risk Award is dedicated in 2012 to the topic of “Early warning in urban areas”.

walter J. ammann; President, GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerlandmargareta wahlsTrÖm; Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNISDR, Geneva, SwitzerlandThomas losTer; Chairman Munich Re Foundation, Munich, Germanyaward winner

Featuring Music Part 3: Roger WIDMER, Tenor: You Do Something to Me, by Cole Porter, accompanied by Stefan WIRTH, Piano

Plenary session 1: from Thoughts to action: research, education, Training and application in Disaster risk reduction (Drr)DavosThere is an imperative need to improve the transfer of knowledge, technology and expertise and the sharing of best practices and lessons that may help to enhance capacity building for sustainable risk reduction and improved disaster management. Panelists will consider what kinds of research, education and training are needed in order to respond efficiently to risks and disasters in the future and how new technologies can enhance the processes of learning about reducing risks and managing disasters. They will discuss how to build capacity in order to analyse, map and forecast hazard, risk, vulnerability and impact. In particular, they will address the problem with respect to developing countries, which may be less equipped financially and institutionally to adapt than are developing countries. Panelists will consider what support should be given to developing countries so that they can improve evidence-based science and education, access information more readily, and enhance governance. The session will address how to raise awareness in all sectors of society, and how to make sure that relevant information is disseminated effectively to policy-makers, the general public and communities at risk. In order to reduce vulnerabilities and increase resilience, information must be integrated into decision-making processes. The session will investigate gaps and improvements in research, education, training and knowledge transfer and will discuss how to link DRR with sustainability science and climate change adaptation.

haresh C. shah; Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus, Stanford University, Founder and Senior Advisor Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Stanford, USA

ambassador martin DahinDen; Director General Swiss Development and Cooperation Agency SDC, Berne, SwitzerlandKirk JunKer; Professor, Chair International Master of Environmental Science, and Chair in US American Law, University of Cologne, Cologne, GermanyJoao riBeiro; INGC Mozambique – General Directorvictoria a. roCKwell; President, American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASME, New York, U.S.A. (tbc)Badaoui rouBhan; Director, Section for Disaster Reduction, UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris, FranceCharles sTeger; President, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USAmargareta wahlsTrÖm; Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UN-ISDR, Geneva, Switzerland

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Plenary session 2: mega Disasters with Cascading effectsDavosRecent disasters, such as the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, have revealed that initial failures, in particular of technical systems, may trigger subsequent damage that results in mega-disasters which impact the built environment and create political, social, and financial consequences, not only at the country level, but also to the international community as a whole. The global risk community is called upon to develop innovative tools for decision making processes and practical intervention against global, systemic and complex risks, as well to combat very large disasters. This session will address questions about how these cascading effects lead to mega-disasters and what measures should be applied to reduce their effects. Panelists will consider how well prepared the world is, and ought to be, in the face of exceptionally large and complex disasters during the whole risk cycle. They will address intervention, response and recovery, and also prevention and preparedness measures. Are there really completely unforeseen events, popularly known as ‘black swans’, or are we merely neglecting the risks posed by low probability-high consequence phenomena? There will be an emphasis on the interaction of intense and high-magnitude physical events with socio-economic consequences and vulnerabilities, and on how to prevent, or at least interrupt, the development of cascading events. Also emphasized will be the importance of redundant systems and of resilience regarding the threat of mega disasters.

Kirk JunKer; Professor, Chair International Master of Environmental Science, and Chair in US American Law, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany

albrecht Broemme; President, Technisches Hilfswerk THW, Bonn, Germany wendy Cue; Chief, Environmental Emergencies Section, Joint UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva, Switzerlandh.e. ms. maria muTagamBa; Minister of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities, Government of Uganda, Kampala, UgandaTso-Chien Pan; Professor, Founding Executive Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singaporeharesh C. shah; Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus, Stanford University, Founder and Senior Advisor Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Stanford, USACharles sTeger; President, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USAmuralee ThummaruKuDy; Senior Programme Officer, Post-Conflict and Disaster Management Branch, United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva, Switzerlandmargareta wahlsTrÖm; Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UN-ISDR, Geneva, Switzerland

COFFEE BREAK

Plenary session 3: urban search and rescue (usar) - improved preparedness through capacity development of national emergency servicesDavosSupported, organized and chaired by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, SDC Urban search-and-rescue is needed for a variety of emergencies or disasters, including earthquakes, hurricanes, typhoons, storms, tornadoes, floods, dam failures, technological accidents, terrorist activities and hazardous materials releases. The events may be slow in developing, as in the case of hurricanes and droughts, or sudden, as in the case of earthquakes and tornadoes. Rescue after structural collapse is one of the most challenging and dangerous disaster response activities. Sophisticated, multidisciplinary search-and-rescue capabilities have been created to address the difficulties of finding, reaching and extricating trapped survivors. The session will include a discussion on how to build and sustain urban search-and-rescue capacities within a national crises management structure. This includes assessment of the needs associated with USAR capacity development. It also involves showcasing best practices in knowledge transfer and partnership building, and promoting agreed global standards.

ambassador manuel Bessler; Deputy Director-General and Head of the Humanitarian Aid Department, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland

simon TsChurr; Rapid Response, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland

marwan Bader ahmad alsmeiaT; Colonel, MBA BA, Jordanian Civil Defense, Initial Project Manager of the JOR IEC-Team, Amman, Jordan urs amieT; Programme Officer, Swiss Humanitarian Aid Unit, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland

monday 27. aug. 2012

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ambassador manuel Bessler; Deputy Director-General and Head of the Humanitarian Aid Department, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland linda hornisBerger; MD Vet., Senior Search Expert, Swiss Disaster Dog Association (REDOG), Switzerland rudolf mÜller; Deputy Director and Chief, Emergency Services Branch, OCHA Geneva, Switzerland

LUNCH BREAK

Davos Dialogues: mega disasters with cascading effectsFoyer C1David alexanDer; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland

Session: swiss early warning system for natural hazardsSession organised by the Swiss Federal office for civil protection BABSDischmaChristoph werner; Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz BABS, SwitzerlandJosef Theodor hess; Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, SwitzerlandPatrick smiT; Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection, SwitzerlandChristoph sChmuTz; Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, Switzerlandmartina sÄTTele; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Switzerland

Session: socio economic aspects of natural hazardsFlüelahelena marie molin-valDes; UNISDR, Switzerlandmohsen naDi; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Iran, Islamic Republic ofBrian g. mCaDoo; Yale-NUS College, Singapore; How do different geohazards affect mortality and economic losses?swati miTra; Micro Insurance Academy, India, Republic of; Integrative disaster risk management: case study from India on social and economic re-constructionJidong wu; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China; Interregional economic impact analysis of the Wenchuan earthquake, Chinarobert muir-wooD; RMS Ltd, United Kingdom; Annualized catastrophe mortalities and driving long term risk reductionChow fah yee; Green Economics Institute, UK; Social cost benefit analysis: a way to optimize net economic benefitsman li; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; The regional economic impact of catastrophe - case study on the China-Japan auto industry after the Great East Japan EarthquakeColin green; Middlesex University, United Kingdom; The role of economics in making better sustainable flood risk management decisions

Workshop: Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness ParT 1 Workshop organized by SDCAspen 1simon TsChurr; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, SwitzerlandPeter goxharaJ; German Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW)

Session: global exposure monitoring for multi-hazards risk assessmentsSession organized by the Joint Research Centre, European CommissionSeehornDaniele ehrliCh; Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy, Republic ofmauro DolCe; Bureau for Seismic and Volcanic Risk, Italian Civil Protection DepartmentDaniel Kull; World Bank, United States of America; World Bank/GFDRR contributions to exposure modeling for global risk modeling initiatives and OpenDRI initiativenicole Keller; GEM Foundation, Italy; Building a Global Exposure DatabaseDaniele ehrliCh; Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy, Republic of; Processing satellite imagery for mapping physical exposure globally

Session: governance and decision making in DrrWisshornQian ye; Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People’s Republic ofhelen T sullivan; Rider University, United States of AmericaKurt PeTersen; Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management, Sweden; A study of the performance of risk and vulnerability assessments by Swedish Public Agenciesortwinn renn; University of Stuttgart, Germany, Federal Republic of; Social unrest: a systemic risk perspective

fredrik BynanDer; Centre for natural Disaster Research, Sweden, Kingdom of; Dealing with disaster in transitional democraciesCamelia DumiTriu; Quebec University, Montreal, UQAM, Canada; A disaster management framework for coping with acts of extreme violence in school settings: a field studynibedita shankar ray-BenneTT; University of Leicester, United Kingdom; Risky talks and talking risks in disaster management: a way forward or backward?walter west hays; Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction; Have we finally found the elusive “Higgs Boson” particle of disaster risk Reduction?

Workshop: increasing disaster resilience through participative development of standards in land management, urban planning and constructionWorkshop organized by RICSDMCSanada 2shailesh KaTaria; Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Disaster Mangement Commission, United Kingdom

Session: integrative risk management approachesSanada 1Carmelo Dimauro; RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic ofCarmelo Dimauro; RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of; A regional multi-risk assessment approach to support the definition public mitigation strategiesniru niruPama; York University, Canada; A reasonable success story of vertical evacuation against tropical cyclones in Indiawilfried haeBerli; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland; Integrated assessment of high mountain hazards and related prevention strategies in the Peruvian CordillerasBeatrice heDelin; Karlstad university, Sweden, Kingdom of; A framework for sustainable natural hazard managementsven hallDin; Centre for Natural Disaster Science, Sweden, Kingdom of; Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) – a strategic Swedish initiative for disaster risk reductionDjillali Benouar; USTHB, Built Environment Research Laboratory (LBE), Alger, Algeria; FORIN or Farout ? Exploring multiple drivers of disaster risks in AfricaJohn l. ClarKe; Marshall Center, Germany, Federal Republic of; What role for soldiers?

BREAK

Session: mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: a governance point of viewSession organized by UNISDRSeehornfrancesc Pla; Council of Europe, FranceDemetrio innoCenTi; UNISDR Europe Regional OfficeCraig DunCan; UNISDR; Using Disaster Inventories Databases for Loss and Damage Assessment as a driver for mainstreaming DRR into Climate Adaptation Strategiesfrancesc Pla; Council of Europe - EUR-OPA; Governance in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: a pan European perspectiveKarl-otto zenTel; DKKV - German National Platform for DRR; Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: a governance point of view: case study Europe / GermanyJaroslav mysisaC; FEEM Confronting two headed dragon: disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation in the case of small island developing states

Session: mobilising the creation of a risk governance cultureSession organized by the International Risk Governance CouncilFlüelamarie-valentine florin; International Risk Governance Council (IRGC), Switzerlandhelena molin-valDes; United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR); The role of local actors for creating effective risk governance cultureTim Prior; Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich, Switzerland; Risk cultures, the social construction of risk, and coordinated responses to global and systemic risksortwin renn; University of Stuttgart; Risk culture: implications for risk governancestephan sChreCKenBerg; Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue; On Risk Governance - A reinsurer’s view

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Workshop: Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness ParT 2Workshop organized by SDCAspen 1simon TsChurr; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Switzerlandolivier hagon; University Hospitals of Geneva

Session: Panel discussion on education for disaster risk reduction Session organized by UNESCO and UNICEFDischmaJulia heiss; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)David selBy; Sustainability Frontiers; A Global Mapping of Disaster Risk Reduction CurriculumBadaoui rouhBan; UNESCO; Launch of the UNICEF/ UNESCO publication Disaster Risk Reduction in school curricula: case studies from thirty countriesfumiyo Kagawa; Sustainability Frontiers; Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction into the Curriculum: A Technical Guidance ToolDmitry KavTaraDze; Ecology and Environmental Preservation in the Academy of Social Affairs, Russian Federation; Cultural landscape of DRR in Russiamarla PeTal; Author of the School Safety Baseline study; Assessing school safety from disasters- a baseline study (on video)ian roDgers; Save the Children; Disaster Risk Management in Schools – The Second Pillarguillaume simonian; United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF); Disaster risk reduction and education

Session: megadisasters and cascading effectsWisshornCraig DunCan; UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Switzerlandgeary wayne siKiCh; Logical Management Systems, Corp., United States of America; Black swans, shapeshifters and flexibilityh Kit miyamoTo; Miyamoto International, United States of America; Global perspective on seismic risk reduction and resilient disaster reconstructionstefan PiCKl; Universität der Bundeswehr München, Germany, Federal Republic of; Simulation and optimization of cascading effects - strategic multilayered risk managementPetra seiBerT; Institute of Meteorology, BOKU, Austria, Republic of; Severe accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe: possible consequences and mapping of riskPetrissa eCKle; Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland; Risk of large oil spills: A statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deep Water HorizonPeijun shi; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; Formation mechanism, process and risk evaluation system of disaster chainansa masauD; Rebuilding Cities after crises: Lessons learnt from urban disaster and conflicts

Session: integrative earthquake risk managementSanada 1Patrick smiT; National Emergency Operations Centre, SwitzerlandChristian h. BarThelT; Munich Re Foundation, Germany, Federal Republic ofshabbou vazirPour; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Science & Research Tehran Azad University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Relationship between community empowerment and citizens’ interest in participation in natural disaster management: case study earthquake at Tehran districts’ levelChristine marie Kenney; Edith Cowan University, Australia; Addressing risk and resilience: an analysis of Māori communities and cultural technologies in response to the Christchurch earthquakesDina ruslanJari; Graduate School, University of Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, Republic of; Role of local wisdom in rapidity of rehabilitation and reconstruction post earthquake in multireligious and monoreligious villages: a case in Bantul, Yogyakarta, IndonesiaChiara CasaroTTi; EUCENTRE Foundation, Italy, Republic of; DRHOUSE project: the ASA module for the post earthquake structural assessmentmojgan Taheri TafTi; The University of Melbourne, Australia; Policy impact and livelihood recovery of retailers in earthquake affected citieshlekiwe KaChali; Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, New Zealand; Recovery and resilience of industry and geographic sectors after the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakesmuhammad abbas ChouDhary; University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan, Pakistan, Islamic Republic of; Causes of success and failure in post disaster reconstruction projects – a case study of post 2005 earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction in Northern Pakistan

Session: Capacity Building for social-ecological resilienceSession supported by University of Denver and GIZSanada 2James herbert williams; University of Denver, United States of AmericaPhilip TeDesChi; University of Denver, United States of Americaeva wuTTge; GIZ, Eschborn, Germany, Republic ofstephan huPPerTz; GIZ, Eschborn, Germany, Republic ofmichael manfreDo; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States of Americagueladio Cisse; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, SwitzerlandPaul oeDraogo; Regional Director, Ramsar Convention, Gland, SwitzerlandTran Kim long; Government of Vietnam, VietNam, Socialist Republic ofandreas reChKemmer; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland

Session: mass Casualty incidents – lessons learnedSession organized by Magen David AdomSertigChaim rafalowsKi; Magen David Adom, Israel, State ofleo laTasCh; Public Health Authority Frankfurt am Main; Hospital & EMS – Real Time Information SOGROguy CasPi; Magen David Adom, Israel; Lessons Learned from Multi Casualty incidents response by Magen David Adom IsraelCarmen leis; SAMUR-Protección Civil. Madrid. Spain; Terrorist Train Bombings in Madrid. Learned Lessons

COFFEE BREAK

Plenary session 4: understanding Disasters - geospatial Technologies in risk reduction and Disaster managementDavosSupported, organized and chaired by ESRI.Nowadays, a large variety of tools and instruments is available to provide basic inputs for the analysis and assessment of risks and disasters. Information from different backgrounds and perspectives can be visualized in new, flexible ways and linked with comparative ease to other models, algorithms and tools. Geospatial technologies play an important role in risk reduction and disaster management. GIS and satellite imagery are indispensable tools in DRR, be it for hazard and risk analysis, characterization of vulnerability or assessment of damage. This information is useful, not only for prevention and preparedness, but also to reduce response time and enhance accuracy during the intervention and recovery phases of disaster. Crisis response imagery and related spatial information may greatly assist priority setting and resource allocation in DRR, and may speed up information exchange. This session will discuss how to use geospatial technologies, vulnerability modeling, data mining, and other emerging techniques in order to add benefit to risk reduction and disaster management.

russ Johnson, Director of Public Safety, ESRI, United States of America

Jeff Baranyi; Public Safety Technology Lead, ESRI, United States of AmericaDr. heather Bell; Science Advisor, Pacific Disaster Center, United States of Americaruss Johnson; Director of Public Safety, ESRI, United States of Americaryan lanClos; Disaster Management Industry Manager, ESRI, United States of Americawendi PeDersen; GIS analyst and a rapid mapping expert, UNOSAT, United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), Geneva, Switzerland Joaquin ramirez; Principal Consultant, DTS wildfire, United States of America

RECEPTION

Session: risk communicationFlüelamarita vos; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Finland, Republic ofChowdhury emDaD haQue; University of Manitoba, Canadaelisabeth maiDl; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Switzerland; Does risk communication raise property owners’ preparedness to implement safety measures against flood damage?Jie-ying wu; Ming-Chuan University, Taiwan, Republic of China; Risk communication and evacuation decision making: the case of residents in debris flow vulnerable area in Taiwanvivienne Bryner; The Centre for Science Communication, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; The Greater Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011: a case study in the communication of science for disaster risk reduction



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eila sinikka murPhy; Jyväskylä University, Finland, Republic of; Evaluating disaster preparedness in West Sumatrasandrine glaTron; CNRS (National center for scientific research), France; The impact on the public of preventive information about risks

Session: Progress and new initiatives in irg Project/ihDPSession organized by the Integrated Risk Governance Project (IRGP)/IHDPSertigDiana mangalagiu; Oxford University, United KingdomQian ye; IHDP-IRG Project; Progress and new initiatives in IRG Project/IHDPmichael J. manfreDo; Colorado State University, United States of America; One Health InitiativeCarlo Jaeger; Global Climate Forum, Germany, Federal Rebublic of, Chair; Current Status of GSDPTso-Chien Pan; Nanyang Technological University, Singaporesaini yang; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of ; Case Comparison in Typical Vulnerable Regions

Session: Challenges and opportunities in building a resilient citySession organized by Istanbul Technical UniversitySeehornseda KunDaK; Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic ofseda KunDaK; Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of; Resilience: from theory to practiceK. gokhan elgin; Istanbul Project Coordination Unit, Istanbul Governorship; Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP)mikdat KaDioglu; Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of; The ISMEP activities on raising public awareness, education and volunteeringhandan TurKoglu; Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of; A training program for disaster mitigation through urban planning

Workshop: Disaster risk is a development issue – a development approach to disaster risk assessment and managementWorkshop organized by UNDP-GRIPWisshornCarlos anibal villaCis; UNDP-BCPR, SwitzerlandJianping yan; UNDP-GRIP



19:00-20:10

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Session: ess project – technical and conceptual challengesSession organized by Magen David AdomDischmaChaim rafalowsKi; Magen David Adom, Israel, State ofgideon hazzani; VERINT, Israel; The Emergency Support System - ESS: Concept and technologyChaim rafalowsKi; Magen David Adom, Israel; Emergency Support System - ESS : The end-user perspectiveadrien mangiavillano; CEREN, FR; Emergency Support System - ESS: System’s field testsJose herrero; GMV, Spain; Emergency Support System - ESS : The web-portal

Session: natural hazard resilient citiesSession organized by Université Paris-EST, EIVPFlüelaDamien serre; EIVP, Francerutger De graaf; Rotterdam University of Applied Sciences, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Floating ecocities as a strategy to reduce the vulnerability of delta areasheinrich weBler; Stadtwerke Mainz AG, Germany, Federal Republic of; Flood risk management – creating efficiency by stakeholder involvementmarie TouBin; Egis, France; Promote urban resilience through collaborative urban services management

Session: integrative risk management - examples from member organisations of the swiss ngo Drr Platform on how to increase resilienceSession organized by the Swiss NGO DRR PlatformSertignicole CloT; Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation, SwitzerlandChristina aeBisCher; Swiss Red Cross, Switzerland; Building community resilience by integrating disaster risk reduction and health system strengtheningesther marThaler; Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation; DRR in fragile context (Afghanistan)nicole CloT; Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation, Switzerland; Strengthening resilience through learning and transformationmaja huerlimann; Caritas, Switzerland; Strengthening resilience at community level; linking up community DM with Government DM

Session: early warning in disaster risk reductionSeehornPeijun shi; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic ofmarc sTal; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerlandnatasha marie uDu-gama; Macquarie University, Australia; Community early warning systems: back to basicsmd. abu syeD; Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Bangladesh; Disaster management information network - a community-based multi-hazard early warning information communication processsung Jin hong; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Analysis of evacuation system and resident’s cognition on coastal disaster preventionChristian h. BarThelT; Munich Re Foundation, Germany, Federal Republic of; Early warning and the human factor - people-centered warning systems and awareness are keyChristoph haemmig; Geotest AG, Switzerland; Early warning of glacial lake outburst floods and climate change monitoring in the Karakoram mountains, P.R. ChinaDwikorita KarnawaTi; Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia, Republic of; Hybrid socio-technical approach for effective risk communication, risk management and early warning systemCristina Parraga nieBla; German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Germany, Federal Republic of; The benefits of alerting system based on standardised libraries

Session: information and communication technologies for risk managementWisshornmarkku T hÄKKinen; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic ofmuhammad abbas ChouDhary; University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan, Islamic Republic oflili yang; Loughborough University, United Kingdom; Design guidelines for human computer interfaces supporting fire emergency response

Tuesday 28. aug. 2012

DeTaileD Programme monDaY 27. aug. 2012 DeTaileD Programme TuesDaY 28. aug. 2012

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eileen CulleTon; Emergency 2.0 Wiki Ltd, Australia; How the emergency 2.0 Wiki can help build resilient communities, empowered with the knowledge to use web 2.0 and social media in emergenciesJae woong Cho; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Development of natural disaster damage investigation system using smartphone in Koreamargarete Charlotte Donovang-KuhlisCh; IBM Deutschland GmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of; Underpinning sustainability with advanced and visual analytics within the intelligent operations center

Session: integrative tsunami risk managementSanada 1sam.s.l heTTiaraChChi; University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic ofChristopher g BurTon; GEM Global Earthquake Model, Italy, Republic ofhyoung seong ParK; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Development of tsunami disaster response system in Koreamanuela Di mauro; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Integrating science with practice to advocate tsunami risk reduction interventionsugo guarnaCCi; University of Reading, United Kingdom; Risk, altruism and resilience in post-tsunami Indonesia: a gendered perspectiveyasamin o. izaDKhah; International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) Iran, Islamic Republic of; Tsunami awareness in Bander Chabahar, south of IranDong seag Kim; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Tsunami hazard mapping through characteristic analysis of inundationsam.s.l heTTiaraChChi; University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; Tsunami risk assessment and management - case studies from Sri Lanka COFFEE BREAK

Plenary session 5: Country risk management and financial Preparedness for DisastersDavosSupported, organized and chaired by Swiss ReThe public sector is increasingly attracted to integrative risk management. Given the inter-connectedness of risks and the broad diffusion of the economic, financial, social and political effects of natural and man-made disasters, the focus is shifting from disaster risk reduction focused on particular sectors to comprehensive, country-level risk management. While prevention must be the first priority, governments are increasingly concerned about the costs involved and have started to take a closer look at new ways of funding risk-reduction measures. This session will discuss good practice in establishing country risk management practices and how to limit the impact of disasters on national economic growth. The plenary speakers each represent a country or region that has taken a leading role in rethinking risk management and the financing of measures. They will respond to the following questions: What are the most novel and innovative approaches? What motivates governments to shift the paradigm towards all-hazards risk management, and towards innovative insurance solutions to the financing of measures? What has triggered fundamental changes and what are the expected benefits? How much progress has been made so far? What are key challenges and obstacles that need to be overcome? What lessons from the paradigm shift have been learned for other countries to follow?

martyn ParKer; Chairman Global Partnerships, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerland

h.e. mr mohamed najib Boulif; Ministre délégué auprès du Premier Ministre, Chargé des affaires générales et de la gouvernance, Government of Morocco, Rabat, Morocco stéphane JaCoBzone; Counsellor - Public Governance and Territorial Development, OECD Secretariat, Paris, FranceDario luna; Ministry of Finance, Government of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexicomartyn ParKer; Chairman Global Partnerships, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerlandsimon young; Manager CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, Bridgetown, Barbados

Open Stage: financial risks vs. financing resilience - a Debate between louis Pauly and John macomberDavos

LUNCH BREAK

Davos Dialogues: The use of new technologies in DrrFoyer C1David alexanDer; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland


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Session: same problem – different solutionsSession organized by Magen David AdomDischmaChaim rafalowsKi; Magen David Adom, Israel, State ofleo laTasCh; Frankfurt City Health Department; Initial medical care of Chemical patientsChaim rafalowsKi; Magen David Adom, Israel; MDA Response to a Mass Casualty Toxicological AccidentCarmen leis; SAMUR-Protección Civil, Madrid, Spain; Same problem – different solutions: Spanish Model

Session: social media and linguistics as part of an integrative risk managementSession organized by Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte WissenschaftenFlüelarené eggenBerger; armasuisse, Switzerlandurs willi; Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften; Welcome addressrené eggenBerger; armasuisse, Switzerland; Integrative risk managementmichael sChanne; Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften, Switzerland; Crisis, communication, social mediazarah esmail; Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Germany, Republic of; Understanding risk communication: the acceptability of risk communication in a multilingual Europe

Session: natech risk reduction after the great east Japan earthquake and tsunamiSession organized by the European Commission, Joint Research CentreSertigelisabeth Krausmann; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italyhirokazu TaTano; Kyoto University, Japanelisabeth Krausmann; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; Natech accidents following the great eastern japan earthquake and tsunami yoshio KaJiTani; Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; Indirect economic impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake: approach by Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Modelhirokazu TaTano; Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; Measuring industrial production capacity caking account of malfunctions of production capital and lifeline systems disruptions caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March, 2011elisabeth Krausmann; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; RAPID-N: A tool for mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes

Session: special swiss re session on economics of Disasters – Costs and financing mechanismsSession organized by Swiss ReSeehornreto sChnarwiler; Swiss Reinsurance Ltd, Switzerlandnina BeCKer; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research- UFZ; Cost assessment of natural hazards – state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and recommendationsTabyaoui mohameD; Government of Morocco; Risk Management of Natural Disasters in Morocco: a project of Global and Integrated Strategymichael nixon; Government of Cayman Islands; Economic impact of disasters in the Caribbean and experience with CCRIFfatima Kassam; World Food Programme; African Risk Capacity – Sovereign Disaster Risk Management for Africa

Session: mapping tools for risk managementWisshornPeter Burgherr; Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Switzerlandarmin haas; Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Federal Republic ofPeijun shi; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; Relationship of the environmental risk and surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau - a remote sensing evidence approachali Panahi; Islamic Azad University, Sardrood branch, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Developing realistic rapid earthquake damage evaluation method for decision making, using GIS. Case study: Iran Kerman citygiampaolo CoCCa; ERSAF; Extreme forest fires and predictive power of fire danger Indexes: a deepening in the Alpine regionstefan falemo; Swedish Geotechnical Institute, Sweden; Mapping landslide risk in the Göta river valley, Sweden – methods and experiences


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14:30-14:40

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yin zhou; School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Mapping the flood disaster risk of metropolitan region in the Yangtze River Delta of China

Session: local actions and community empowermentSanada 1Diana mangalagiu; Oxford University, United Kingdomfranz sTÖssel; SDC, Switzerlandnathan CooPer; Community Preparedness and Risk Reduction Department, IFRC; Characteristics of safe and resilient communities and key determinants of successful disaster risk reduction programmesKristoffer Berse; Department of Urban Engineering, University of Tokyo, Japan; International municipal cooperation as a modality for transferring local best practices in disaster risk management: practice, promise and pitfallsTed yu shen Chen; University of Melbourne, Australia; Disaster cultural resilience of religious communities – case study from Sri Lanka post 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunamimanash ronjan BhaDra; Shusamaj Foundation, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Empowering communities to cope with disaster risks through community-based disaster managementlaila naz TaJ; Focus Humanitarian Assistance Europe Foundation, United Kingdom; Impact of the 2011 drought among communities in Afghanistan

Session: assessment and decision making in risk managementSanada 2Pane sToJanovsKi; Asia Risk Centre, Inc., United States of Americaangelika wirTz; Munich Reinsurance Company, Germany, Federal Republic of; The need of disaster loss data - assessment of droughts in global databases stephanie JaQueT; Global Risk Forum, GRF, Davos; Integrated risk assessment tools for decision-making. A case study from landslide affected mountain areas in Central Nepalandreas Koler; alpS GmbH, Austria, Republic of; Area wide risk assessment – a best practice example in the Province of the Tyrolnicolai sTeen; DARA International, Spain, Kingdom of; Risk reduction index - methodology and preliminary findingsThi my Thi Tong; Kyoto University, Japan; School-based disaster risk reduction approach in building resilience for Central Vietnamhossein Teimoori; NIS CERT, Tehran, Iran; FMEA, Most Common Risk Assessment Method in IndustryBjørn Kalsnes; Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, NGI, Norway; Landslide risk management issues in SafeLand BREAK

Workshop: Public empowerment policies for crisis managementWorkshop organized by the PEP projectDischmamarita vos; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of; The PEP project: An introduction,marita vos; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of; Community approaches in crisis management: A desk studyJenni hyvarinen; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of; A toolbox for Crisis Management and Communicationanne-marie van heT erve; Inconnect, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Technology options in Crisis Communicationmatti haaTaJa; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of and helen T. sullivan; Rider University, United States of America; Technology options in Crisis Communication

Session: “Taking preparedness seriously” – revisiting the gaps and challenges in linking early warning and timely response between community and government levelsSession organized by Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)Flüelastephan huPPerTz; Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Germany, Federal Republic ofmelgabal CaPisTrano; Malteser International, Germany; Bridging sustainably the last mile connectivity in India and Myanmaralexander ruDloff; German Research Centre for Geosciences - GFZ; GITEWS - The German Contribution to the Indonesian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning system: experiences and lessons learnedhilton hernanDo; Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration





16:10-16:40

(PAGASA); Low cost flood early warning systems based on linking local governments and communities in the Philippines

Session: Capacity building and awarenessSertigmarie-valentine florin; International Risk Governance Council, SwitzerlandJiahong wen; Shanghai Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; GRIP-CERAM Shanghai - a new model of capacity buildingwolfgang KromP; BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, ISR; The role of societal context in severe technical accidentsarjen De lanDgraaf; Bricade Ltd, New Zealand; READ - Risk Exposure Awareness and Deflection - creating an organization-wide risk awareness programmagnus hagelsTeen; LUCRAM, Lund University, Sweden; Seven elements for capacity development for disaster risk reductionmagnus Johansson; Centre for Climate and Safety, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden; Social learning in education – an important step in practical integration of preventive risk reduction and adaptation to climate change

Session: environment and Disaster risk reduction: moving from Theory to PracticeSession organized by PEDRRSanada 1muralee ThummaruKuDy; United Nations Environment Programme, SwitzerlandThiruvanchoor raDhaKrishnan; Ministry of the State of Kerala, Indiaabé Delfin oChou; Ministry for Environment and Sustainable Development, Côte d’lvoiremarta monJane; IUCN - International Union for Conservation of Nature, Eastern and Southern Africa RegionDaniel Kull; Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Switzerland

Session: environmental changes and health implicationsWisshornvirginia murray; Health Protection Agency, United Kingdommonica lynn sChoCh-sPana; University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, United States of AmericaKerstin maja Dressel; sine-Institut gGmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of; A new public health concept for risk governance of vector-borne infectionsyasamin o. izaDKhah; International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran, Islamic Republic of; Vulnerability analysis of women’s health in natural disasters and proposed strategies for risk reductionnezha Khallaf; LEM UMR, Lille, France; Haiti, two years later: What has happened to the injured? Factors affecting social integration of the 12th January 2010 earthquake victims in Port-au-Princemichel JanCloes; Health and Climate Foundation; The Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network: strengthening the public health prevention and outbreak control strategyshayani weeresinghe; Independent researcher, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; Future epidemics of malaria: the potential of climate change induced malaria and its potential mitigation in Sri Lanka

Session: Critical infrastructures iSeehornJohn zePPos; COSMOTE Mobile Telecommunications S.A., Greece, Hellenic Republicasimiyu mohammed JinaDu; Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, Federal Republif ofChristian Kellerhals; Swiss Federal Roads Office (FEDRO), Switzerland; Strategic risk management by a roads provider adrian robert gloor; ASTRA, Switzerland; Prevention of major accidents in road transportation of dangerous goodsmilad zamanifar; Islamic Azad University -South Tehran branch, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Measuring performance functionality of roads after earthquakeniloofar saDeghi KomJani; Young researchers Club, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Risk assessment of the buried fuel pipelines in the City of Kermanshah, IranPhilippe arnolD; FEDRO, Switzerland; Risk concept for natural hazards on motorway in Switzerlandwilliam gene Corley; CTLGroup, United States of America; USA building code changes resulting from 9/11 attacks

COFFEE BREAK


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Plenary session 6: urban risks and resilienceDavosCities concentrate people and their assets. They are major drivers of political, economic, financial, technological and cultural change. Cities stand for progress and prosperity, and for this reason they attract large numbers of rural people and concentrate them in urban environments. At the same time, their variety, density and complexity are inherently sensitive to disturbance, which brings unexpected political, social, financial and environmental implications. Urbanization is a trend that leads to massive flows of people into informal settlements, many of which expand into hazard-prone areas, often without the measures needed to bring the hazards under control. Moreover, climate change will exacerbate this problem. Most of the today’s mega-cities are located in coastal areas, which are additionally vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surges. It is the city authorities’ most challenging task to balance risks against opportunities to secure social welfare and human well-being. This implies that all kinds of risks have to be identified, analysed and managed in a process that must be integrative. Regarding crises and disasters, to overcome these situations, resilient systems, organisations and procedures have to be put in place. This session will focus on questions of how to implement a holistic, risk analysis and assessment approach in cities so as to improve the resilience of their physical, social, economic and ecological systems. Panellists in the session will consider what ‘resilient’ means in the context of large cities and how the emerging risk scene should determine the priorities for integrative risk management.

stefan wolfgang PiCKl; Professor, Chair for Operations Research COMTESSA, Department of Computer Science, Universität der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany, Federal Republic of

alice BalBo; Global Adaptation Coordinator and “Resilient Cities”- Project Manager, ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Bonn, GermanyCraig DunCan; Senior Information Management Officer, Information Management Unit, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNISDR, Geneva, SwitzerlandJack harralD; Professor and Director a.i. Center for Community Security and Resilience, Virginia Tech, Arlington, USAnivedita haran; Dr., Secretary of State Disaster Management Authority, Kerala, Indiah.e. ms. ama i. PePPle; Federal Minister of Land, Housing and Urban Development Abuja, Nigeriaortwin renn, Professor and Chair, Environmental Sociology and Technology Assessment, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germanyhamzeh shaKiB; Professor, Tarbait Modares University, Tehran, Iran, Islamic Rebublic ofCarmen vogT; Policy Advisor for Urban Development, German Development Cooperation (GIZ) GmbH, Eschborn, Germany, Republic of

Open Stage: Launch of the Handbook for Local Government Leaders in Farsi, Chinese, Spanish, Russian and FrenchDavos

Poster reception

Workshop: gis for Disaster managementWorkshop organized by ESRI DischmaJeff Baranyi; ESRI, United Kingdom

Session: Public private partnership approachesFlüelastephan sChreCKenBerg; Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd., Switzerlandharesh C. shah; Stanford University and Risk Management Solutions, United States of Americasara BouChon; Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Italy, Republic of; Enhancing regional resilience to cope with critical infrastructure disruptions: the public-private partnership experience in Lombardy Region, Italygavin John love; WorleyParsons, United States of America; Old issues, new approaches - public private partnerships for effective recovery and reconstructionmakarand hasTaK; Purdue University, United States of America; Risk for financial agencies in providing affordable disaster insurance to developing countriesanna Kingsmill-vellaCoTT; Consortium for the Built Environment, United Kingdom; Can the PFI model mitigate risk in non-infrastructure procurement?

Plenary session 7: open forum on risk and societyDavosChaired and supported by the Rachel Carson Centre (RCC), Munich, GermanyToday’s global risks are highly complex and are characterized by great levels of interdependency and uncertainty. Whether one deals with natural disasters and extreme events, climate or other environmental change, technological risks and impacts, energy security or economic and

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financial risks, the global risk landscape is changing rapidly. Risk analysis and risk management have become truly global issues at the very core of society. It is evident that any meaningful attempt to understand and deal with modern risks will have to address various social, cultural and ethical dimensions and must also look at risk in a historical perspective so as to learn from past experiences. Therefore, the perspective must be broadened and deepened to embrace the humanities and social sciences. This should be part of an increasingly interdisciplinary approach to the processes of risk analysis, assessment, management, transfer and communication. Such an approach will involve the entire global risk community, composed of researchers, educators, policy-makers and practitioners. This Open Forum will address the multi-faceted nature of today’s global risk landscape and its phenomenology. It will discuss a wide variety of societal, cultural and ethical components and aspects. In particular, panelists will highlight the nature of the interaction between people, their environment, their culture, and risks. Historical and case-based perspectives will be added to the discussion. The Open Forum aims to contribute to current trends in public debate about risk and help identify solutions, including political ones.

James herbert williams; Dean, DU Graduate School of Social Work, University of Denver, Denver, United States of America

edgar granDe; Professor, Chair for Comparative Policy Analysis, University of Munich, and Board Member, Munich Center on Governance, Germany, Federal Republic ofh.e. ms maria muTagamBa; Minister of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities, Kampala, Ugandaanthony oliver-smiTh; Professor University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of Americalouis Pauly; Professor, Canada Research Chair in Globalization and Governance and Professor of Political Science, University of TorontoChristoph sTueCKelBerger; Professor, Dr., Executive Director and Founder Globethics.net, Geneva, SwitzerlandBron Taylor; Professor, University of Forida, Gainesville, United States of America

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Registration

Workshop: ubiquitous technology to facilitate preparedness, practice, and situational awareness before, during, and after disastersWorkshop organized by Rider University and University of JyväskyläDischmahelen T sullivan; Rider University, United States of Americamarkku T hÄKKinen; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of

Session: european critical infrastructures: which analysis framework for supporting effective decision making?Session organized by the Joint Research CentreFlüelageorgios giannoPoulos; Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic ofgeorgios giannoPoulos; Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of; A resilience based analysis framework for critical infrastructures protectionThomas mÜnzBerg; Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Nuclear and Power Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of; Critical infrastructure disruptions: a generic system dynamic approach for decision supportsergio olivero; SiTI - Istituto Superiore sui Sistemi Territoriali per l’Innovazione, Italy, Republic of; Security and safety of cross-border infrastructureTim Prior; Center for Security Studies, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; Decision making for resilience in critical infrastructure governance

Session: a converging vision of resilience building between the private sector and civil society Sertigandrew miTChell; Disaster Risk Management Consultant, Francemarcus oxley; Global Network for Disaster Reduction UK, United Kingdom; Building Resilient Nations and Communitiesotto KoCsis; Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, Switzerland; Building Resilient Businessandrew miTChell; Disaster Risk Management, France; Private sector-civil society partnership opportunities for resilience building

Session: Climate change, migration and displacement (rCC)Seehornuwe lÜBKen; Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Germany, Federal Republic ofanja meuTsCh; University Cologne, Germany; The Protection of environmental refugees through international public lawandreas reChKemmer; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland; Social Perspectives on Land Degradation and Desertification: The Case of Migration and Conflictgiacomo Parrinello; Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, LMU, Germany; From displacements to migrations: the earthquake of Messina (1908) and the earthquake of the Belice Valley (1968)eric anthony Des marais; University of Denver, United States of America; Developing best practices for the resettlement of environmental migrants: the next step

Session: Critical infrastructures iiWisshornDaniel Kull; World Bank, SwitzerlandJohn hanDmer; RMIT University, Australiasakineh mohammaDi; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO), Iran, Islamic Republic of; Management of the continuity services in water infrastructure (case study: emergency drinking water management in Tehran metropolitan)Peter Burgherr; Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Switzerland; Comparative risk assessment of energy technologies in the context of energy security and sustainabilityalida saleh; Exp Services Inc., Canada; Sustainable reconstruction of critical infrastructuremaximilian BroCK; 4flow AG, Germany, Federal Republic of; A comparison of regular and disrupted operations for route planning in freight transportationfatemeh saleh; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran; The role of emergency transportation network in crisis managementJeannette sieBer; European Institute for Energy Research (EIFER), Germany, Federal Republic of; Spatio-temporal analyses of the impacts of extreme weather events on renewable energies and advancing local decision-making in climate mitigation concepts

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reza BaThaee; INDM Conference, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Uncoordinated Structural Development in megacities in Iran; a Factor hindering optimal performance of rescue forces in crisis response phase

Session: risk in urban areasSanada 1robert muir-wooD; RMS Ltd, United Kingdom Jiayuan ye; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic ofansa masauD; UN-Habitat, Nairobi, Kenya; Understanding and Measuring Urban Resilience: A new UN-Habitat’s initiativefeng Kong; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Preliminary study of the relationship between new risk factors and traditional risk factors - taking the relationship between the population urbanization and natural disasters in China’s county-level units for exampleromeu viCenTe; University of Aveiro, Portugal; Vulnerability assessment of urban building stock: a hierarchic approachguoyi han; Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, Kingdom of; Enhancing urban resilience to extreme waters: The WASH and RESCUE Initiativeanup KaranTh; TARU Leading Edge, India, Republic of; Tale of two cities: developing city reliance strategies under climate change scenarios for Indore and Surat, IndiaPatricia alarCÓn; Institute for Research on Risk Management. INIGER. Morelia, México; Building a safe municipality Morelia, Michoacàn, Méxikoajay r. govale; United Way of Mumbai, India, Republic of; Experiences of working for improving state of community based disaster preparedness in Mumbai city

COFFEE BREAK

Plenary session 8.1: global risks - an integrated governance approachDavosSupported by Beijing Normal University (BNU) and the International Risk Governance Project (IRP-P)The governance of global systemic risks needs to focus on a community of multiple institutions and disciplines, including natural scientists, social scientists, engineers, policy makers, practitioners and educators from around the world. It ought to be truly integrative, especially in the face of the ever more complex, inter-connected and cascading risks that society faces. The panel will address all of these issues. It will present experiences and case studies from various countries, and will identify new approaches to integrated risk management, with emphasis on good governance. The global risk community must develop and apply innovative tools and methods, including theoretical, mathematical and computational tools as well as enhanced management approaches. These must foster good decision-making processes and practical intervention against global, systemic and complex risks, and to reduce the effects of large-scale disasters around the globe. This panel will address all of these issues. Six main themes can be identified for discussion, research and application: the role of social-ecological systems; the role of scenarios, models and modeling; transitions into and out of an emergency state; early warning systems; and the value of paradigms and comparisons among cases.

andreas reChKemmer; Professor, Chief Science and Policy Advisor, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerland.

edgar granDe; Professor, Chair for Comparative Policy Analysis at the University of Munich (LMU) and Board Member of the Munich Center on Governance (MCG), Munich, GermanyCarlo Jaeger; Professor for Economy, PIK Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, Federal Republic ofsander van Der leeuw; Dean & Professor, School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Phoenix, United States of Americamichael J. manfreDo; Professor and Department Head, Human Dimensions of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO, USADiana mangalagiu; Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford United Kingdom, and Professor of Strategy at Reims Management School, Reims, FrancePeijun shi; Professor Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, People’s Republic of

Plenary session 8.2: Disasters, environment and migrationAspenSupported by the Rachel Carson Centre (RCC), Munich, GermanyIn recent years there has been a significant world-wide increase in high consequence disasters, extreme events associated with climate change, environmental degradation and ecosystem failure. Too often, poverty, social under-development and fragile statehood further aggravate

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these impacts by increasing the vulnerability of people and socio-economic systems. They thus contribute to the emergence of humanitarian crises. Moreover, through forced migration, social vulnerability and humanitarian crises have contributed to a dramatic change in regional and global mobility patterns, which has already become one of the major effects of the ongoing integration of the world economy. Changing mobility patterns, especially the forced ones, often lead to an erosion of human security in both the countries of origin and the target nations. Political instruments have so far provided inadequate responses to these issues. Hence, there is a need for effective and sustainable global governance of labor mobility, and of displacement and forced migration, especially when disasters, climate change and environmental risks are involved. The current situation suggests that these issues have not been adequately discussed in society at large, and have not been fully understood in interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary ways. History, culture, anthropology and ethics are among the social and human disciplines that have a strong potential to contribute to the debate. There is an urgent need to move the discussion to a new plane and help it inform global decision-making processes.

Bron Taylor; Professor University of Forida, Gainesville, United States of America

Jörn BirKmann; Dr., Head of Section, United Nations University Institute for Envrionmenat and Human Security, Bonn, Germany, Federal Republic oferic Des marais; Adjunct Faculty Graduate School of Social Work University of Denver, Denver, USA uwe lÜBKen; Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, Munich, Germanyfranz mauelshagen; Deputy Director, Kulturwissenschaftliches Institut KWI, Essen, Germanyanthony oliver-smiTh; Professor University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of Americah.e. ms. ama i. PePPle; Federal Minister of Land, Housing and Urban Development Abuja, Nigeriaroger s. PulwarTy; Dr., Director, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, United States of America

Open Stage: The Colorado wildfires 2012: exposing the risk of re-rural migration in the western u.s. by michael manfredoDavos

LUNCH BREAK

Davos Dialogues: urban risks and resilienceFoyer C1David alexanDer; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland

Workshop: Collectors, coordinators and directors - innovation in the management of disastersWorkshop organized by WorleyParsons and Miyamoto InternationalDischmagavin John love; WorleyParsons, United States of AmericaKit miyamoTo; Miyamoto International, Inc., United States of America

Session: integrated risk assessment: what kind of multi-risk analysis to support the risk reduction decision-making process?Session organized by Risk Governance SolutionsFlüelaCarmelo Dimauro; RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic ofsara BouChon; RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic ofKevin michael fleming; German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany, Federal Republic of; Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe: the MATRIX projectnathalie marÇoT; BRGM, France; The multirisk approach for the Pays A3V, France, BRGMluigi Brusamolino; CISM, CRISC; Societal Security – the new standard ISO 22301 for Business Continuity Managementmarcello forTe; AXA Matrix Risk Consultants, Italy, Republic of; Risk engineering decision tools for risk management supportsara BouChon; Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Italy, Republic of; User requirements assessment to support the integrated risk management decision-making process

Session: lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the worldSession organized by the Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDPSertigPeijun shi; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic ofnorio oKaDa; Kyoto University, JapanQian ye; IHDP-IRG Project; Too much money and too little money: lessons learned from recent global disastersarmin haas; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Researchxiaobing hu; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Ripple-Spreading Models




14:30-14:40


and Algorithms for Integrated Risk GovernancePeijun shi; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of

Session: rio+20 and The future of sustainability and Disaster risk reductionSession supported by DKKV and GIZAspenKarl-otto zenTel; DKKV, Germany, Republic ofandreas reChKemmer; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerlandannegret ThieKen; University of Potsdam and DKKV, Germany, Federal Republic ofJörn BirKmann; United Nations University (UNU-EHS), Germany, Federal Republic ofBron Taylor; University of Florida, United States of AmericaJoao riBeiro; General Director, National Institute for Disaster Management, Mozambique

Session: Climate change: impacts, preparedness and adaptationWisshornadolfo masCarenhas; LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic ofman Cheung Chung; Zayed University, United Arab Emiratesitay fisChhenDler; Hebrew University, Israel, State of; The impact of uncertainties and risks on cooperation and conflict in transboundary water managementniels holThausen; Ernst Basler + Partner, Switzerland; Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a national climate change adaptation strategy in SwitzerlandTim Donovan; Met Office, United Kingdom; Weather aware, climate preparedadolfo Caridade masCarenhas; LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic of; Climate change, natural resources, institution and the value of research from a global to a local perspective in Mwanga district Kilimanjaro region, Tanzaniayung-ming Chen; National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, Republic of China; The climate change impact and adaptation strategy on disaster in Taiwanyunyun Jin; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes & Resource Ecology Beijing, China, People’s Republic of; Diagnosis of climate-related risks by using a Bayesian updating method – a case study of summer temperature in Chinaroanne van voorsT; UvA, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Coping with floods in a riverbank-settlement in Jakarta, Indonesia; An interdisciplinary approach to human actor’s heterogeneous risk-strategies Session: ecosystem based approaches and engineering measuresSanada 1radhika murTi; International Union for Conservation of Nature, Switzerlandfrank graf; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerlandhari Krishna niBanuPuDi; International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of; Land use change and human health in the Eastern Himalayas: an adaptive ecosystemnoralene menchavez uy; Kyoto University, Japan; An ecosystem-based resilience analysis of Infanta, Quezon, Philippinessam.s.l heTTiaraChChi; University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; Investigating the performance of coastal ecosystems for hazard mitigationDaniel ToBler; GEOTEST AG, Switzerland; Hazard management in a debris flow affected area – Spreitgraben, SwitzerlandJennifer K. Poussin; Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Impact of climate change, land use change and residential mitigation measures on damage and risk assessmentsandrine glaTron; LIVE-CNRS, France; Protection against muddy floods: perception of one protection system (fascines) for local actors in Alsace (France)garry De la Pomerai; VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom; Environmental and ecological solutions 21st century technology

BREAK

Session: The benefits of standardisation in reducing seismic riskSession organized by the Joint Research CentreDischmafabio federico TauCer; Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of artur PinTo; European Commission, Italy, Republic ofDomenico giarDini; ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Harmonization of seismic hazard assessment: the SHARE exampleKyriazis PiTilaKis; Aristotelio Panepistimio Thessaloniki, Greece, Hellenic Republic; The importance of a systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of complex urban, regional, national or pan-


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European systems comprising buildings, transportation, lifelines, utility networks and critical facilitiesartur PinTo; European Commission - DG JRC, Italy, Republic of; The role of the European Standards for Construction (Eurocodes) for earthquake risk mitigationfabio federico TauCer; Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of; Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe Directive (INSPIRE): contribution towards seismic risk and loss assessment

Session: improved risk information to support sound policy/decision making processes – The unDP’s global risk identification Programme, griP’s experienceSession organized by UNDP-GRIPSanada 2Carlos anibal villaCis; UNDP-GRIPJo sCheuer; UNDP-BCPRJosé guadalupe osuna millÁn; Government Baja California State, Mexicoregina Below; CRED, SwitzerlandJiahong wen; GRIP-CERAM, Shanghai, China, People’s Republic ofamod DixiT; NSET-Nepal, Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of

Session: risk, society and cultureSertigortwinn renn; University of Stuttgart, Germany, Federal Republic ofabass muKasa; Kampala Capital City Authority, Uganda, Republic of; Cultural Role in Risk and Disaster Management, A case study from Uganda, Africasean murPhy; Lootok, United States of America; Risk shrink: exploring the psychology of riskram sateesh PasuPuleTi; Luleå University of Technology Luleå, Sweden, Kingdom of; Towards an interdisciplinary framework for understanding the role of culture in the post disaster reconstruction processJohn hanDmer; RMIT University, Australia; Making and unmaking human security: the limits of state power in reducing risk and creating resilienceBriony Clare Towers; RMIT University, Australia; A critical pedagogy of risk: empowering children with knowledge and skills for DRRman Cheung Chung; Zayed University, United Arab Emirates; Posttraumatic stress and psychiatric co-morbidity following bombing in Iraq: the role of shattered world assumptions and altered self-capacitiesmohammad reza farzaD BehTash; Tabriz Islamic Art University - Research & Planning Center of Tehran Municipality, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Considering social and cultural dimension of resilient cities

Session: scenarios and models in DrrSeehornangelika wirTz; Munich Reinsurance Company, Germany, Federal Republic ofBernhard m. hÄmmerli; University of Lucerne, Switzerlandsidney CouPeT; Doctors United For Haiti (DUFH), United States of America; A long term building capacity model that prepares for effective disaster reliefJiayuan ye; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway networkamir azizi; Municipality of Mashhad, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The planning and implementation of earthquake scenario in megacitiesmehdi noJavan; University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The role of land use planning in the disaster risk reductionnikolaus arnolD; University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, Republic of; Fuel cycle risks imposed by a nuclear growth scenariosergey KaBaniKhin; Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Russian Federation; 3D-simulation of integrated natural and man-made hazards

Session: special swiss re session on financial Tools for Disaster risk managementOrganized by Swiss ReWisshornesther Baur; Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd, Switzerlandguillermo ColliCh; Inter-American Development Bank, United States of America; Regional insurance facility in Central America – an integrated approach to risk management and risk transferDang The vinh; Vina Re, Vietnam, Republic of; Boosting agricultural production and stabilizing farmers’ income through index insurance in Vietnam

aglaia PeTseTi; University of Pireaus, Greece, Hellenic Republic; Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greecerajagopalan DevaBalan; CARE, India, Republic of; Bundling of risks for disaster proofingmario wilhelm; Swiss Reinsurance Ltd; Lessons from various microinsurance schemes and key success factors

Session: agriculture, land degradation and droughtSanada 1yuan zhou; Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerlandfrank graf; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerlandfrank graf; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland; A wind erosion case study in an alpine meadow (Davos, Switzerland) compared to wind tunnel experiments with live plantsPane sToJanovsKi; Asia Risk Centre, Inc; Agricultural risk micro-insurance product for Mozambiqueumma haBiBa; Kyoto University, Japan; Enhancing farmer’s resilience toward droughts: perspective from northwestern region of BangladeshPashupati nath Koirala; Government, Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of; Livelihood improvement of the poorest farmer through degraded forest management in Nepal

COFFEE BREAK

Keynote: supporting resilient systems for one health, food security and nutrition: participatory risk reduction at critical interfacesDavosDavid naBarro; Special Representative of the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition, and the UN System Influenza Coordinator

Plenary 9: risk in agricultureDavosSupported, organized and chaired by the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, SwitzerlandFarmers are round-the-clock risk managers. Worldwide, they face a wide range of risks that threaten their livelihoods and the food security of those whom they supply. This is particularly true of the estimated 450 million smallholders in developing countries. Major risks in agriculture include those associated with weather (e.g. drought, rainfall at the wrong time, and winds that carry pathogens), crop pests and diseases (throughout the growing cycle and after harvest), policy and governance issues (e.g. barrier tariffs, inappropriate subsidies, neglect of research and infrastructure, and the effects of warfare), environmental problems, crop losses, biodiversity losses and social changes in rural areas. Many of these risks remain ignored or unnoticed by large sections of the population, notably in OECD countries. Closely tied to the risks that farmers face are agricultural risks that threaten society. In many regions, food security is at best uncertain and transient. Where food is physically available, price increases may rapidly make it inaccessible to poorer families. As well as creating malnutrition and reducing human potential, inflation-induced food insecurity may lead to civil strife. Rather than allow agricultural risks to threaten food security, it is vital that farmers have access to the necessary tools, technologies and training to enable them reduce these risks. In many cases, this would avoid the need for classic humanitarian responses such as food aid. This plenary session examines the nature and causes of selected risks associated with agriculture. Speakers will focus on environmental problems, pests, diseases and price volatility.

marco ferroni; Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland

andré BaTiono; Senior Resource Mobilization Officer at AGRA, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, Nairobi , Kenyamike Bushell; Principal Scientific Advisor, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerlandmarco ferroni; Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, SwitzerlandTBC; (price volatility)

Open stage: international year of water Cooperation, 2013: mainstreaming water Cooperation into water related Disaster risk reduction by sulton rahimovDavos

Poster reception


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Workshop: gis for Disaster managementWorkshop organized by ESRiDischmaJeff Baranyi; ESRI, United Kingdom

Session: Business continuity managementFlüelawilliam gene Corley; CTLGroup, United States of Americagavin John love; WorleyParsons, United States of AmericaJohn zePPos; COSMOTE Mobile Telecommunications S.A., Greece; Continuing operations in a modern and efficient mannersean murPhy; Lootok, United States of America; Controversy and crisis managementali asgary; York University, Canada; Enabling small businesses to develop their business continuity plan: York University business continuity planning toolkit for small businesses



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Workshop: Towards a safer world: a whole-of-society approach to disaster preparednessWorkshop organized by the World Food ProgrammeAspenDavid naBarro; UN, Switzerland Chadia wannous; UNSIC, Switzerlandamir aBDullah; World Food Program, Italy; Mainstreaming Pandemic Preparedness into Multi-Hazard ReadinessDavid ross harPer; World Health Organization, Switzerland; World Health Organization: health security preparedness emil agusTiono; Coordinating Ministry for People’s Welfare, Indonesia, Republic of; Building national pandemic preparedness through strengthening non health sectors: Indonesia’s lesson learnt matthias sChmale; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), Switzerland; The relevance of Integrative Risk Management to RCRC programmingstephen C. alDriCh; bio-era, United States of America; How to motivate private sector participants to invest in mitigating and adapting to systemic risks

Session: recent and future developments in eu security research. from a counter-terrorism focus towards a wider support for natural and accidental large scale crisis or disasters. all hazard approachSession organized by the European CommissionDischmaTristan Daniel simonarT; European Commission, Belgium, Kingdom ofPeter amBs; INTERPOL, France; FASTID project - FAST and efficient international disaster victim IDentificationheiko werner; German Federal Agency for Technical Relief, Germany, Federal Republic of; Security research from an end user perspectivehans-Christian gran; FFI, Norway; Preparedness of CBRNE incident management within the EUDelilah helen al KhuDairy; European Commission, Italy, Republic of; Crisis Management: Needs, Gaps and OpportunitiesChaim rafalowsKi; Magen David Adom, Israel, State of; Crisis management and security research – an end user perspective

Session: Disaster risk reduction in the hindu Kush – himalayan regionSession organized by International center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)Flüelahari Krishna niBanuPuDi, ICIMOD, Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of

Session: The evolution of seismic ‘real time’ early warning and ‘reliable’ seismic prediction’ scienceSession organized by VVSC FZ LLC UAESertiggarry De la Pomerai; VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom

COFFEE BREAK

Plenary session 10: linking one health and the hyogo framework for actionDavosOne Health is a broad umbrella concept that deals with the many interactions between human, animal and environmental health in close relation to agricultural production and the safety and security of food. It also covers resource depletion, climate change, and global change. One Health includes public health, environmental stewardship, management of life-sustaining resources (such as fresh water), the protection of endangered species, the maintenance of an ecological balance, and general sustainable development. It supports a relationship between humans and other living species that minimizes the risks of disease transmission and safeguards the health of all life forms. One Health interacts with fields such as climate change impact analysis, risk and disaster management, disaster medicine and resource economics. One Health’s integrative, risk-based approach shows many similarities with the already implemented Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) process within the United Nations system. HFA addresses at least some of the topics mentioned under the One Health umbrella, but from a different perspective. As an example, climate change may have a substantial impact on future health patterns, including the impact of extreme weather such as floods, excessive rainfall,

Thursday 30. aug. 2012

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heatwaves and cold snaps. Moreover, lifestyle and nutrition patterns may be the cause of cause increases in allergic reactions. This session will consider how the developing One Health field can benefit from HFA’s strategic and operational achievements so as to facilitate and accelerate the implementation of processes that benefit human welfare, protect livelihoods and promote sustainable development.

marco ferrari; Member of the Board of Directors of GRF Davos, Former Chair of the Drafting Committee for the Hyogo Framework for Action, Thun, Switzerland

David harPer; Special Adviser to the Assistant Director-General for Health Security and Environment, World Health Organization Headquarters WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.Daniel Kull; Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, Geneva Representative of the World Bank/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Geneva, Switzerlandvirginia murray; Head, Extreme Events and Health Protection, Health Protection Agency, London, United KingdomDavid naBarro; Special Representative of the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition, and the UN System Influenza Coordinator.Paul oueDraogo; Senior Regional Advisor for Africa, RAMSAR Convention, Gland, SwitzerlandCathy waTson; Livestock Emergency Guidelines and Standards (LEGS) Coordinator, Addis Abbeba, EthopiaJames herbert williams; Dean and Milton Morris Endowed Chair, Graduate School of Social Work, University of Denver, Denver, USA

LUNCH BREAK

Davos Dialogues: The one health paradigm and its context to the hfaFoyer C1David alexanDer; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland

Session: financing the green transformation: opportunities and challenges aheadSession organised by GSDP & IRGPDischmaDiana mangalagiu; Oxford University, United Kingdom Qian ye; Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People’s Republic ofDiana mangalagiu; Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford, United Kingdomarmin haas; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, FederalRepublic ofantonella BaTTaglini; Renewable Grid InitiativePeter hoPPe; Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, Germany, Federal Republic ofJames Cameron

Session: “making the Connection” – Practical experiences on linking disaster disk reduction, climate change adaptation and ecosystem managementSession organized by GIZFlüelaeva maria wuTTge; GIZ, Germany, Federal Republic of Thomas PiesCh; German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ): Germany, Republic ofJoern BirKmann; United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security; Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: new challenges and new insights from the IPCC SREX report and own Studiesali rizvi; International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN); Enhancing community resilience for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction – a case study from CambodiaTran Kim long; Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam, Republic of; Integrated management of the mangrove forest ecosystem for improved climate resilience in VietnamJoao riBeiro; National Disasters Management (INGC), Mozambique elias massiCame; National Disasters Management (INGC), Mozambique

Session: monitoring and modelling for risk managementSertigali asgary; York University, Canadaartur PinTo; European Commission, Italy, Republic ofiain hay maCinnes; DigitalGlobe, United Kingdom; Informed response via satellite based technologieswentao yang; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Identifying landslides using binary logistic regression and landslide detection index techniqueslubna rafiQ; SUPARCO-Pakistan Space Agency, Pakistan, Islamic Republic of; Satellite application for non-structural flood risk management in Pakistan

max wyss; WAPMERR, Switzerland; Estimating casualties in future earthquakes for preparedness: probabilistically or deterministicallyPaul KailiPoni; University of Manchester, United Kingdom; Using dasymetrics to address the aggregation error in spatial data: a multi-criteria approach for flood vulnerability assessment using spatial dataJoachim franz DreiBaCh; Fire Watch international AG, Switzerland; Early detection, surveillance of wildfires and the integration into fire management systemsfrancesco gaeTani; GEO Group on Earth Observations, Switzerland; Natural disaster mitigation and earth observations: a Group on Earth Observations perspective

Session: Tackling risk in agricultureSession organized by Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable AgricultureSeehornyuan zhou; Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerlandrose goslinga; Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland; Insurance for the Rural Smallholder Farmer: Kilimo SalamaPartha r Das guPTa; Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland; Addressing risks of water stress in farming by smallholders: examples from IndiaJohn sTaaTz; Michigan State University, United States of America; Policies for managing volatility in staple food prices in West AfricaBrion Duffy; Agroscope, Switzerland; Management strategies for invasive plant disease: Fire blight, a global threat to pome fruit production and agro-forestry ecosystems

Session: health within disaster risk reductionWisshornmonica lynn sChoCh-sPana; University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, United States of America Christine marie Kenney; Edith Cowan University, AustraliaPhilipp fisCher; Department of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Germany, Federal Republic of; The DITAC Project - Development of a Disaster Training curriculum (DITAC)samantha waTson; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Thailand, Kingdom of; “Embedded health systems analysis”: A framework for effective disaster mitigation & responsemohammad hossein raJaei; I.R Iran National Institute of Health Research, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2012-2025 roadmap of I.R.Iran’s Health Disaster Managementnikki BlaCKwell; ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of; A comparison of functional outcomes at one year between two cohorts of patients with extremity limb trauma following the Haitian earthquake in 2010anwarul aBeDin; Kyoto University, Japan; Safe water adaptability index for salinity, arsenic and drought risk in south-west of Bangladesha.m. viens; Ruhr University, Germany, Federal Republic of; The role of pandemic plans in ethical preparedness and resilienceKirsten marina loveloCK; University of Otago, New Zealand; Occupational health of front line workers responding to earthquakes in New Zealand: workplace cultures- vulnerability, resistance and resilience

Session: local actions and community empowerment iiSanada 1marcus oxley; Global Network for Disaster Reduction, United Kingdomsebastián marTÍn; City of Santa Cruz Tenerife, Spain, Kingdom of; Participation and reduction of local disasterssonia a. rawal; Asia Risk Centre, Inc; Mitigation of global volatility of food supply/demand risk through innovations in crop insurance schemesmohammed salim uDDin; University of Manitoba, Canada; Disaster risk and vulnerability in coastal plains of Bangladesh: observations on human responses and local resilience to the effects of cyclone Sidr, BangladeshJason von meDing; Queen’s University Belfast, United Kingdom; A community-driven approach to material management in post-disaster reconstructionBijan yavar; Millennium Enlightened Planners Engineering Company (MEPCO); A modern view to disaster management, concentrating on people with dynamic settlements (nomads) as a sustainable development standardgutu Tesso BoKa; World Vision International, Ethiopia, Federal Democratic Republic of; A time series analysis of climate variability and its impact on food production in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia




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Workshop: The future of alerting the public – Discussion of human behavior, information expectations and technology use in an intercultural contextWorkshop organized by the German Aerospace CenterDischmaCristina Parraga nieBla; German Aerospace Center (DLR)Cristina PÁrraga-nieBla; German Aerospace Center (DLR); Cross-border alertingmichael KlaffT; Fraunhofer Institute for Open Communication Systems, Germany, Federal Republic of; Technology use aspects of alerting systemsKerstin Dressel; sine Institut gGmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of; Taking into account socio-cultural factors to improve alerting strategies

Session: integrative flood risk managementFlüelamarkus zimmermann; SDC, Switzerlandayman hassan al-momani; University of Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of; Management of flood risks at the city of TabukPhilip BuBeCK; German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany; Are private flood mitigation measures successfully contributing to contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany?Damien serre; EIVP, France; Analyzing the urban functions to prioritize urban flood resilient actionsChristian willi; Ernst Basler + Partner, Switzerland; Flood risk management with limited data – case study Han River, ChinaJian fang; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; A preliminary study of flash flood in Hunan Province, China - spatio-temporal characteristics, trends and risk managementDoracie Baldovino zoleTa-nanTes; Crawford School of Public Policy, RMAP, College of Asia and the Pacific-The Australian National University, Australia; Chronicling and mapping the physical and social components of the 2009 flood disaster and the disaster risk reduction initiatives of urban poor communities in Metro Manila, Philippines

Session: water security: responses to local, regional, and global challengesSession organized by UNESCO & IHP and co-convened by ICHARM & ICIWaRMSertiganil mishra; UNESCO, Franceeugene sTaKhiv; International Center for Integrated Water Resources ManagementJohannes Cullmann; Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Germany, Federal Republic offaiq Billal; International Islamic Organization for Education, Science and Culture Organisation, Morocco, Kingdom ofKuniyoshi TaKeuChi; International Centre for Water Hazardanil mishra; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organizationgérard Bonnis; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentDjillali Benouar; Integrated Research on Disaster Risk, Algeria, People’s Democratic Republic of

Session: Critical infrastructures iiiSeehornnina BeCKer; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research- UFZ, Germany, Federal Republic ofJohn hanDmer; RMIT University, Australiaove Tobias guDmesTaD; University of Stavanger, Norway, Kingdom of; Disasters in arctic areassuzanne naomi Bernier; SB Crisis Consulting, Canada; Identifying and preparing for threats to critical infrastructure during protests or civil unrestmarco gruBer; Gruber Partner AG, Switzerland; Mastering the ante in critical infrastructures – a Swiss approach to visualizing trends, realizing opportunities and defeating threatsJennifer giroux; Center Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich; The Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD): announcing a new datasetClaudia BaCh; United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Germany, Federal Republic of; Critical infrastructure vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reductionhamzeh shaKiB; Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Proposed seismic risk reduction program for lifelines in the megacity of Tehran, Iran

Session: medical emergenciesWisshornJames J. James; American Medical Association, United States of Americaolivier hagon; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Switzerland

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magda w. rooze; Impact/Arq Psychotrauma Expert Group, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Development of guidelines for psychosocial support for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear (CBRN) incidentalessandra rossoDiviTa; San Raffaele Hospital Scientific Foundation, Milan, Italy; The dual use of field hospital in peace time and in war time. The Italian experience of Alpini field hospital during disasters.michael Kellyn Thralls; MESH, United States of America; Multi-Agency Surge Tactical Facility (MAST-F) - applicable lessons from a mobile hospital teamnezha Khallaf; LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France; Medical treatment options and patient preference: the case of the limb-trauma victims of the earthquake in Haiti on January 12, 2010nikki BlaCKwell; ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of; One-year follow up of care received by a cohort of patients treated with limb amputation following the earthquake in Haiti Session: The evaluation of unDP’s global risk identification Programme – analyzing the results and findings of a forward looking evaluation processSession organized by UNDP-GRIPSanada 1Carlos anibal villaCis; UNDP-GRIPneil Buhne; UNDP-BCPRJosé guadalupe osuna millÁn; Government Baja California State, Mexicofrancis ghesQuiere; GFDRR Secretariatangelika wirTz; Munich Reinsurance Companyfranz sToessel; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDCrafael vanDyCK; UNDP-Mexicoesteban leon; UN-Habitatloy rego; UNDP-GRIP

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Plenary session 11: The future of integrative risk managementDavosRisks and disasters are having an increasingly profound effect on global society. In a world of global markets and inter-regional supply chains, of financial destabilization, resource depletion, water scarcity, environmental degradation, and social inequity, the impact of disasters is likely to worsen in the future. Are we prepared for the global impacts caused by disasters? In order to meet the challenges, tools and mechanism need to be in place in order to allow effective risk reduction and disaster management. The panelists will discuss, among other things, the following questions: How can one make prevention more attractive? Is a “new humanitarianism” needed, in which the agenda is expanded to include governance, the promotion of livelihoods, the provision of security, social protection, and other activities related to development? How does Rio+20 affect DRR? How can risk management be moved forward after 2015 and the end of the first application period for the Hyogo Framework for Action, 2005-2015?

John D. maComBer; Professor, Senior Lecturer in Finance and Real Estate and Gloria A. Dauten Real Estate Fellow, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA

esther Baur; Director of Communications and Head of Issue Management & Messages, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerlandmarco ferroni; Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland walter fusT; former Ambassador Swiss Government, Hessigkofen, Switzerlandrasmus helTBerg; World Development Report 2014 on Risk, Uncertainty and Crisis, The World Bank, Washington, U.S.A.nance Kyloh; US Agency for International Development, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, US Mission Geneva, Switzerlandh.e. ms. ama i. PePPle; CFR, Federal Minister of Land, Housing and Urban Development Abuja, Nigeria sulton rahimov,; First Deputy Minister of Melioration and Water Resources, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Closing ceremonyDavosConference dinner, Berghotel, SchatzalpFeaturing Music: A Trio of young artists studying at the Konservatorium in Winterthur will entertain you with their outstanding music during a memorable final event of the IDRC Davos 2012.

Friday 31. aug. 2012

GRF Davos Business Continuity Conference (see page 17 or http://businescontinuity.idrc.info for more information)Dischma

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risk financing and sharing PeTseTi, aglaia; University of Piraeus, Greece, Hellenic Republic; Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greece Banizamanlari, farhad; Kuritkara Consulting Engineers Co., Iran, Islamic Republic of; Introducing auditing of elements and measures of natural crisis management processes as an efficient tool for developing corrective actions Chinnaswamy, Kumar; CARE India; Insurance cover for natural disasters DevaBalan, rajagopalan; CARE, India, Republic of; Insurance literacy for micro insurance awareness neslihanoglu, serdar; University of Glasgow, United Kingdom; Time-varying beta risk of Turkish industry portfo-lios: a comparison of GARCH and Kalman filter modelling techniques green, Colin; Middlesex University, United Kingdom; What do disasters teach us about economics?

integrated seismic risk management villanueva holm-nielsen, Pablo; ALECTIA / MDM, Denmark, Kingdom of; Use of crowdsourcing in post-disaster damage assessment wang, xiaoqing; Institute of Earthquake Science, China, People’s Republic of; The seismic vulnerability base on macroeconomic indicators and risk evaluation in Asia Taheri TafTi, mojgan; The University of Melbourne, Australia; Housing reconstruction policies and socio-spatial transformation of the built environment in old fabric of earthquake-affected cities zamanifar, milad; Islamic Azad University -South Tehran branch, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Development of methodology for post-earthquake reconstruction planning of lifelines moghimi, sanam; University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Optimal selection of recovery strategies after earthquakes, considering interdependencies of infrastructures using dynamic Leontief Input-Output Model hu, fuyu; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Path selection model and algorithm for emergency evacuation during earthquake disaster ParK, Ki Jong; National Disaster Management Institute, Ministry of Public Administration and Security, Korea, Republic of; Utilization plan of seismic acceleration monitoring data Kim, Jin seon; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Evaluation of natural period depending on the structure system miyamoTo, Kit h.; Miyamoto International, United States of America; Lessons learned from massive damage assessment and reconstruction strategies in 2010 Haiti earthquake he, yongnian; China Earthquake Administration, China, People’s Republic of; Consciousness and knowledge of disaster reduction helps reduction of earthquake disaster mohammaDi, sakineh; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Disaster management bases site selection using GIS in Tehran, Iran Parvaresh, mohammd; Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Iran, Islamic Republic of; The first specialized maneuver of water and wastewater industry of Tehran at earthquake crisismoreno, Daniel; Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, FUNVISIS, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of; Caracas Seismological Museum: A space to develop an interactive experience between the community and the Venezuelan seismic culture. moTa-hernanDez; Universidad autonoma del estado de Mexico, Mexico; Preliminary analysis of the 1985 Mexican earthquake by applying the Management Oversight and Risk Tree

mountain risks zare BiDaKi, rafat; Shahrekord University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Investigating weather parameters affecting snow avalanching in Alborz Mountains, Iran. Panahi, ali; Islamic Azad Univercity; Feasibility studies for optimum establishment of rural at risk of natural disasters Broimshoeva, rukhshona; FOCUS Humanitarian, Tajikistan, Republic of; Building resilience and reducing vulnerability through integrated risk management in mountain areas laguna megal, luis miguel; Freelance Consultant, Spain, Kingdom of; Reinforced flexible systems for slope

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Tuesday 28 aug.

stabilization: an outstanding technology, fully proved in the Iberian area iasio, Christian; EURAC, Italy, Republic of; New approaches for integrated monitoring of slopes movements in mountain regions: the Interreg project "SloMove"

education and capacity building izaDKhah, yasamin o.; International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology; Educating preschool children on earthquakes using simulators BanDara, nimal Piyasiri; Disaster Management Centre of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; Preparation of school disaster safety plans and simulation allia, Khedidja; USTHB, Algeria, People’s Democratic Republic of; Engineering education and the need to address some challenges of the 21st century in terms of training transformation BazyarizaDeh, yahya; Red Crescent Society of Hormozgan Province, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Voluntary community-based preventive public education (VCBPPE) before the disasters: a model to facilitate and expedite emergency treatment and improvement public health after disasters love, gavin John; WorleyParsons, United States of America; Community resilience - expanding grass roots approach to develop capacity and sustainability BaDri, seyed ali; University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Comparative study of rural people’s attitudes towards risk in an earthquake-prone area: the case of rural high school students and head of households in Avaj County, Qazvin, Iran giglioTTi, rosario; Sapienza University of Rome, Italy, Republic of; A development cooperation Erasmus Mundus partnership for capacity building in earthquake mitigation science and higher education shiroshiTa, hideyuki; Kansai University, Japan; Multilayer disaster education through collaboration between a disaster education centre and a local universitymiTra, swati; Micro Insurance Academy, India, Republic of; Capacity building of school children- case study from India

urban risk DelgaDo, natalia; University of Southampton, United Kingdom; Assessing inter-agency capital response to terrorism: adaptive coordination yan, lijun; Shanghai Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Urban security based on IOT wirz, martin; ETH Zurich, Switzerland; A novel participatory sensing method for monitoring crowd conditions by collecting GPS location traces from pedestrians' mobile phones for real-time crowd management during city-scale mass gathering alarCÓn, Patricia; University of Michoacán, Mexico; Land use planning for disaster reduction in Uruapan, Michoacán, México feilsTreCKer, lais Brandao; UFSC, France; Shalstab application to identify the susceptible areas of shallow landslides in Cunha River Watershed, Rio Dos Cedros City, SC, Brazil mirmohammaD hosseini, Kiandokht; Social Security Organization, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The effect of community trust in adopting protective measures in Tehran city

risk, society and culture heinemann, simone; Ruhr-University Bochum, Germany, Federal Republic of; Ethics and risk in finance niBanuPuDi, hari Krishna; International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, Republic of; Gender stereotypes and disaster vulnerabilities alarCÓn, Patricia; University of Michoacán, Mexico; The appropriation of the nature and the social construction of the risk in Angangueo, Michoacán, Mexiko elmi, mahmoud; Islamic Azad University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Gender and gender identity: the necessity of redefining rossoDiviTa, alessandra; San Raffaele Hospital Scientific Foundation, Milan, Italy, Republic of; State and social factors in global disasters: topological scope PlaCheTKa, uwe; BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, Republic of; The tipping points of socioecological systems: Romans vs. Incas nuzulia, yorsi; Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia, Republic of; The importance of the cultural approach to relocate the survivors of mount Merapi : a case study of survivors of Glagaharjo Community

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ecosystem based approachesaBe, miwa; Kansai University, Japan; Role of thematic resettlement as eco-village in Sri Lanka shang, yanrui; Hebei Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Study of agricultural drought coping and ecological feedback - taking Hebei Province in North China as an example syeD, md. abu; Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Geospatial pattern and trend in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh mallah nowKanDeh, sina; Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Assessment effects of River Vegetation Density Index (RVDI) in recognition of damageable areas during torrents

Flood risks KailiPoni, Paul; University of Manchester, United Kingdom; Precautionary evacuation operations using decision analysis: application to catastrophic flood event viavaTTene, Christophe; Middlesex University, United Kingdom; Reframing risk- and responsibility-sharing in flood risk management in England and Austria ganJehi, sajad; Tehran University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Evaluating and improving the railway safety against flood, a case study of Tehran glaTron, sandrine; LIVE-CNRS, France; GERIHCO - An interdisciplinary approach to understand the muddy floods risk (Alsace - France) nazariha, mehrdad; Tehran University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Causes that make developing countries more vulnerable in disasters in the case of flooding

wednesday 28 aug.

Critical infrastructures Dimauro, Carmelo; Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of; Identification of critical infrastructures exposed to natural hazards: the main step towards the impact assessment on regional socio-economic systems ganJehi, sajad; Tehran University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The influence of technology transfer management in improving the performance of risk management of natural disaster in rail transportation: a case study in Iran

Business continuity management BalsTer, andreas; Technical University of Darmstadt, Germany, Federal Republic of; Measures of supply chain risk management BuBeCK, Philip; Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, Germany, Federal Republic of; Assessing direct damage and losses due to the disruption of production processes caused by natural hazards in Europe KromP, wolfgang; University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; Risk of ice shed from wind turbines murPhy, sean; Lootok, United States of America; How to build a BCM Brand

Disaster and crisis management yu, han; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Research on region regularity of disaster chains in Gansu Province China

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sun, shao; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Features of sea ice disaster in the Bohai Sea in 2010 Johansson, magnus; Karlstad University, Sweden, Kingdom of; How to measure efficiency in risk prevention? Beerens, ralf Josef Johanna; Institute for Safety, Netherlands, Kingdom of the ; Learning from crisis management exercises: a design science approach to exercise evaluation roussy, sandrine; Action contre la Faim, France; Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organizations miller, James Patrick; University of Oregon, United States of America; Reproducing the lakou: the role of vernacular settlement patterns in post-disaster temporary settlements marCh, alan Peter; University of Melbourne, Australia; Building organisational disaster resilience: lessons from Australian bushfire BanDara, nimal Piyasiri; Disaster Management Centre, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; Preparing and planning in disaster management BozorgimaKarani, reza ali; University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The role of management information systems to response to crisis management yavar, Bijan; Millennium Enlightened Planners Engineering Company, Iran, Islamic Republic of; SoTech Risks an important context to be taken into consideration JinaDu, asimiyu mohammed; Federal University of Technology, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; National efforts and the challenge of disaster in Nigeria De la Pomerai, garry; VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom; Global design compliance and land issues challenges and regulatory barriers TeTiK, Cigdem; Disaster and Emergency Management, Turkey, Republic of New disaster mangement system in Turkey shiroshiTa, hideyuki; Kansai University, Japan; How specialised research fields of disaster management can be integrated? yarmohammaDian, mohammad hossein; University of Medical Sciences, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Application of FMEA and HFMEA techniques as risk assessment tools for contingency planning

local action and community empowerment KorvenranTa, Tiina; City of Vantaa, Finland, Republic of; Empowerment of the community after a fire - residents' meeting as psycho-social intervention aghaBaBaei, muhammad Taghi; Municipality of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Developing a comprehensive model for disaster resilient community sChoCh-sPana, monica lynn; University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, United States of America; Reconstituting community in the aftermath of nuclear terrorism yilmaz, Didem gunes; University, United Kingdom; Rural areas in Turkey and their reasons being vulnerablemiTra, swati; Micro Insurance Academy, India, Republic of; Community empowerment for effective corporate supply chain logistics in the present economic crisis

Prepardness and early warningKailiPoni, Paul; University of Manchester, United Kingdom; Inter-model influence diagram analysis using modular

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elicitation methods for evacuation decision-making roussy, sandrine; Action contre la Faim, France; Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organization granaDo, Carolina; Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of; A seismic swarm: a social lab to promote earthquake preparedness arPaCi, alexander Duran; University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; Development of a daily fire danger system wyss, max; WAPMERR, Switzerland; The need for developing a culture of earthquake shelters to render early warning useful DreiBaCh, Joachim franz; Fire Watch International AG, Switzerland; Best practices and new technologies in fire detection and suppression De la Pomerai, garry; VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom; Seismic prediction and real time early warning make a perfect combination sullivan, helen T; Rider University, United States of America; Human preparedness and response to risk: a neuroscience perspective

risk governance fisChhenDler, itay; Hebrew University, Israel, State of; Institutional responses to coastal hazards: a comparative perspective florin, marie-valentine; International Risk Governance Council, Switzerland; IRGC concepts and tools for risk governance ye, Qian; Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People’s Republic of; Progress and new initiatives in IRG project/IHDP ornaf, Julia; Univeristy of Lausanne, Switzerland; Processual political methodology as a legitimate response to pluralism and uncertainty issues

Climate change adaptation & disaster risk reduction smirnova, Tatyana yurevna; Research Hydrometeorological Institute, Uzbekistan, Republic of; Monitoring of severe weather phenomena for the reduction of damage caused by them on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan masCarenhas, adolfo Caridade; LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic of; Preparedness arising from vulnerability and the value of resilience during the latest climate change episode in Zanzibar mohammaDi, seyed abolfazl; Tehran University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; CDM, dam and disaster management of Climate Change BaTen, mohammed abdul; Independent University Bangladesh, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Impacts of climate change in geographically isolated areas: community perception from riverine islands of south-central and northern Bangladesh van sTaveren, martijn floris; Wageningen UR, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Integrated Flood Management in the context of climate change: case study Vietnam arPaCi, alexander Duran; University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; Fire risk and interactions with other natural hazards under the impact of climate change in Austria saleh, alida; Exp Services Inc., Canada; Natural disasters and climate change: safe school design and construction lu, yanli; Integrated Risk Governance Project (IRGP)/IHDP, China, People’s Republic of; Soil loss and dust release in farmland during extreme dust storms in China BhaDra, manash ronjan; Shusamaj Foundation, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Disaster management and linkages with climate change adaptation aBDulKaDir, aishetu; Federal University of Technology, Nigeria, Federal Republif of; An integrated approach to delineation of eco-climatic zones in Northern Nigeria mallah nowKanDeh, sina; Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Recent climate change in Iran – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature

health and medical interventions within emergency situations afraD, md. safiul islam; Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Impact of arsenic mitigation program on socioeconomic aspects of the beneficiaries Chung, man Cheung; Zayed University, United Arab Emirates; Posttraumatic stress disorder and psychiatric co-morbidity following 2010 flood in Pakistan: the role of cognition distortion and suppression CasPi, guy; Magen David Adom, Israel, State of; Unconventional Concepts incorporated; providing medical support to large scale public gatherings KaranTh, anup; TARU Leading Edge, India, Republic of; Urban service monitoring system (UrSMS): reducing

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health risks through active monitoring in Surat, India BazyarizaDeh, yahya; Red Crescent Society of Hormozgan, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Preventive family consultation with the approach of enhancing psychological resilience and its role in promoting post-disaster psychological preparedness and mental healthshieh, esmaeil; Iran University of Science & Technology; Evaluation of hospital vulnerability, three hospitals in Kerman-Iranshieh, esmaeil; Iran University of Science & Technology; Adapting the” Paho Hospital Safety Index” for hospitals in Iran

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The Official Launch of theInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Elsevier Publishers and Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Present:

Monday, 27 August 2012 at 18:10 Conference Centre, in the C1 Foyer in front of the Aspen Room on the Promenade (upper) level

Elsevier Publishers and the Global Risk Forum GRF Davos are pleased to announce the launch of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. The IJDRR publishes a wide range of original high quality papers that cover fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy briefings and case studies. It will focus on multi-disciplinary work designed to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. The journal will stimulate exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on the disaster research, mitigation and risk reduction between policymakers, practitioners and academics from different disciplines.

Editor in Chief: Prof. Dr. David Alexander, GRF Davos

Key topics covered by the journal include: • multifaceted and cascading disasters• spatial and temporal monitoring, analysis and zoning of regional hazard and risk• the development of risk reduction strategies and techniques• discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk reduction in different cultures and communities• climate change and its implications for future disaster risk• governance and the creation of disaster resilience. The journal particularly encourages papers which approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective. It will be of interest to people working in:

• the assessment, management and communication of risk• natural and technological hazards monitoring, warning and management• disaster planning, management and response• crisis control and threat reduction• hazards insurance and economics...and many other areas, professions and disciplines. The journal has a significant number of papers in press and Volume 1 is now ready to be consulted at http://tiny.cc/ijdrr

Please join us at the journal's launch party!

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Have you already accidentally bumped into the exhibited Nigerian woman and her kid in the interiors of the Congress? Looked into the carry-on of the woman from Bangladesh? Listened to the Maldivian kid’s personal escape story?

In the frame of a project conducted by Netzwerk Amerikahaus Berlin, the technical University TU Berlin and the United Nations Association of Germany (DGVN), artists Grit Kümmele and Sotiria Papadopoulou proudly present you their work based on life-sized two-dimensional figures. Intentionally bringing along disturbing elements into the figures, the artists aim at sensitizing passersby around the problematic of global climate change and climate induced refugees.

Presented and led by Ralf Tietz, artist from Cologne, Germany, the photographic project “Portraits of Global Change: Risk, Environment and Human Mobility” is part of a wider work in progress.

Adapted to IDRC’s subject areas during the Conference, this real-time event consists in artistically taking a photograph of Conference participants and in inviting them to deliver a subject-related message in a short interview. By making the living environment of conference participants more transparent, the idea is to enable a dynamic and visual bird’s eye perspective on thoughts of personalities from all around the world.

“act or react?”

sotiria Papadopoulou and grit kümmele on Climate Change & Climate refugees

The main exhibition being inaugurated beginning of 2013 in Berlin, GRF Davos has given the artists the exceptional opportunity to present their preview work during the 4th IDRC Davos 2012.

Sotiria Papadopoulou, a from Athens originating TU Berlin Bühnenbild student and artist, as well as Grit Kümmele, german freelance artist, curator, trainer and university lecturer, invite you to join their experience- oriented exhibition in the room schwarzhorn of the Congress Center.

“Portraits of global Change - risk, environment and human mobility”Visual artist ralf Tietz gives your ThoughTs a VoiCe

sPeCial evenTs

art exhibitions (room schwarzhorn)

After having been documented, the individual profiles will be made available on GRF’s Website.

how you can contribute: Join artist Ralf Tietz in the room schwarzhorn, and let yourself guide into this fantastic artistic voyage, in which your thoughts will be given a voice!

…watch, listen and react to the life-sized human figures you may encounter…

Three artists will spectacularly embody the IDRC’s subject areas on Climate Change and Migration into their work.

With completed vocal studies at the academy of music in Zurich, lyric tenor roger widmer functions as maestro and chorus leader since 2008. Besides teaching lead vocals himself, Widmer is currently following an advanced training at Carol Bruetting’s in Frankfurt. As a soloist of spiritual opus from baroque to first performances, Widmer’s lively concert activity in Switzerland and surrounding countries - momentarily on tour with “I Quattro” as one of the 4 tenors - is remarkable.

With a special interest for the French and German song repertoire, the tenor gathered first operatic experiences at the young operas of Stuttgart and Freiburg, Germany. After having debuted as Astradmus in Die Welt auf dem Mond from Haydn/Steinke as well as performed in a scenic rendition of Schuberts Winterreise by Hans Zender, Widmer is currently committed to the state opera house of Stuttgart.

opening of the 4th iDrC Davos by lyric tenor roger widmer accompanied by stefan wirth

At the Opening Ceremony of the 4th IDRC Davos 2012, tenor Roger Widmer will be accompanied by stefan wirth on the grand piano. As one of the most versatile Swiss musicians of his generation and winner of numerous music prices, Stefan Wirth has among others performed with the Czech Chamber Orchestra, the Bernese Chamber Orchestra and the Malaysian National Philharmonic Orchestra. Mainly dedicated to contemporary music both as a composer and as a performer, soloist Wirth closely works with the Collegium Novum in Zurich and the Ensemble Contrechamps in Geneva.

Anywhere. Anytime. Anyone.Terrorism, crime, natural disaster and accidentsthreaten the UK’s transport, banking,telecommunications, utilities, health and food distribution – anywhere , at anytime,a�ecting anyone.

Contingency Today covers all signi�cant threatsto the critical national infrastructure, includingelectronic attack and the sophisticated misuseof computer systems; physical attacks byterrorist organisations and other criminals; the e�ects of climate change; and other naturaldisasters, including pandemics, �re and �ood.

Get ahead of the rest – Contingency Today isrequired reading for decision makers whoprotect the nation’s infrastructure.

www.contingencytoday.comLatest issue out now:

Copyright: CARE/Courbet

Copyright: CARE/Bannon

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JoB fair

find potential project partners, associates, or employees at the iDrC Davos 2012Are you interested in establishing professional contacts in the field of risk reduction and disaster management? Then don’t miss out on the great opportunity to publish your job advertisements and call for project partners on the IDRC Davos 2012 website.

how to post your job advertisement?GRF Davos offers the possibility of posting your job advertisement on the IDRC Davos 2012 conference Job Fair Black Board in the Exhibition area next to the GRF Booth.

Do you want to arrange for a job interview?IDRC Davos 2012 offers meeting rooms for job interviews at the venue. The meeting rooms are available from Sunday, 26 August to Thursday, 30 August between 9:00am and 6:00pm and can be booked for free at the registration desk.Please do not hesitate to contact us for any further information on the job fair at the registration desk.

ConferenCe ProCeeDingsUpon registration at the conference venue, particpants receive a copy of the Conference Proceedings. The proceeding consists of a hard copy of the short abstracts (included in the programme) and the short- and extended abstracts USB stick.

short abstracts The short abstract collections are included at the end of the programme (see page 73), including the abstracts of the oral presentations, the poster presentations, as well as the session and workshop abstracts. It is intended as a reference companion throughout the busy conference days, serving as a quick overview of the presenations with an author index at the end.

short and extended abstracts usB stickThe digital collection of the short and extended abstracts consists of:1. Electronic copy of the short abstacts PDF2. Interactive extended abstracts documents (oral, sessions and workshops) PDF3. Poster collection PDF

Tourism informaTion anD leisure aCTiviTies

Davos, Europe’s largest mountain resort, offers an unforgettable natural landscape combined with a vast array of leisure activities. Davos has something for everybody. Those who prefer the quiet to the exciting city life will be pleased by the calmness of the Davos area. The region of Davos can be explored on 700 km of well-preserved and marked hiking trails. Whether you are interested in mountaineering, hiking or strolling on comfortable walks - in Davos you will find your personal hiking paradise.

A wide range of leisure activities are available for participants. Enjoy a horse carriage ride in one of our beautiful side valleys, learn a new trend like Nordic Walking or visit one of the famous museums of Davos. For detailed information regarding leisure activities and for bookings, please ask at the IDRC information booth at the entrance of the conference centre.For post conference tourism activities, please visit the local guest service for all kind of toursim information:

Destination Davos Klosters information Davos PlatzTourismus- und SportzentrumTalstrasse 41 7270 Davos PlatzTel. +41 (0)81 415 21 21, Fax +41 (0)81 415 21 00 Opening hours guest service: Monday - Friday: 08:30-12:00 13:45-18:00 Saturday: 09:00-18:00 Sunday: 10:00-14:00

Mountain railways: +41 (0)81 417 62 22Please do not hesitate to contact us at the registration booth for further information.

Destination Davos Klosters information Davos Dorf Bahnhofstrasse 8 7260 Davos DorfTel. +41 (0)81 415 21 21, Fax +41 (0)81 415 21 07 Opening hours guest service: Monday - Friday: 08:30-12:00 14:00-17:00 Saturday: 13:00-18:00 Sunday: 12:00-14:00

horse drawn carriage rideTake a trip through the magnificent mountain landscape and finish off with a tasting of local specialities and a traditional Röteli liqueur at a popular mountain restaurant.

hikingComfortable paths for stolling or narrow mountain tracks through steep terrain above the tree line. Explore the old settlements of the Walser, and move through distant valleys of the Davos Klosters region.

nordic walkingExercise the whole body through this popular Nordic sport, which gentle on the joints and splendid for stimulating the circulation.

wsl institute for snow and avalanche research slf, DavosYou are welcome to visit the SLF and take a look behind the scenes. The tour starts with a 15-minute multimedia presentation of our activities and fields of research. You are then shown various areas of the institute and given an immediate insight into the everyday work of our researchers.

when: Monday, August 27, 2012, 19:00 - 20:30 (max. 25 persons)Booking: required until Monday, August 27, 2012, 16:00 by mailing to [email protected] or by phoning 081 417 01 11Price: free of chargevenue: WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastrasse 11, 7260 Davos Dorf

guided tour

general information

outdoor activities

Daily fresh and delicious

Enjoy home-style cookingin our cosy Café-Restaurant.

Large selection of delicious cakes anddifferent coffee specialities.

Our perfect gift ideas:Zauberbergbrot, Kirchner Nusstorte,Parsennsteine and a lot more.....

Visit our page and online shop in englishwww.cafe-weber.ch

JoB Fair anD ConFerenCe ProCeeDings Tourism inFormaTion anD leisure aCTiViTies

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BikingOur alpine trails promise excellent flow and unlimited fun. The new single-track trail map for the region Davos Klosters Prättigau supplies detailed information on all the trails.

ClimbingThe climbing garden is set in the rocks near the Seehorn summit, reached by an hour’s walk from Flüelastrasse in Davos Dorf. A superb spot thanks to its sunny situation and spectacular views.

Paragliding Get a bird’s-eye view of the world. We are ready to fly you away whenever the mood takes you. Sweep silently over cliffs, trees and countryside, feel the cool clean air on your skin and marvel at views of deep valleys and impressive peaks.

golf Golf at alpine altitudes presents special challenges. A professional golf coach inducts you into the world of proper posture, correct grip of the club, and the perfect swing.

swimmingThanks to “eau-là-là”, the new Wellness and Pleasure Pool Centre, Davos has now also become an oasis year in, year out for people who value their health, those who want to have fun or for serious swimmers, both young and old alike.Pool Centre (next to the conference center), Promenade 90, CH-7270 Davos PlatzTel. +41 (0)81 413 64 63

folk museumThis valuable collection of ancient Davos artefacts and scripts document the transformation of the farming community and the recent development of the mountain region into the city of Davos. Heimat Museum, Museumstrasse 1, 7260 Davos Dorf

Kirchner museumBuilt in honour of the German expressionist artist Ernst Ludwig Kirchner, the museum caused a sensation in international architectural circles. A visit at the museum gives you an insight into his major works of art. Kirchner Museum, Ernst Ludwig Kirchner, Promenade 82, 7270 Davos Platz

Please visite our iDrC information booth at the entrance of the conference centre. The personal guest service or the webpage from the local tourism service will inform you about the complete variety of leisure activities: www.davos.ch

museums

meDia ParTners

European Journal on Risk Regulation

Emerald Insight

WADEM World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine

Elsevier

Contengency today

International Climate Change Information Programme

Tech 21

****Turmhotel Victoria DAVOS

das neue „Charme & Luxury“ Hotel

Buchen und jetzt pro�tieren! Ihr Vorteil: 15 % Rabatt

Angebot gültig während der Sommersaison 2012

(Das Angebot ist nicht kumulierbar mit anderen Spezialangeboten)

****Turmhotel Victoria / CH 7260 Davos Dorf Tel: 0041 (0) 81 417 53 00

hotel@victoria -davos.ch / www.victoria -davos.ch

Tourism inFormaTion & leisure aCTiViTies meDia ParTners

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ouTComes oF iDrC DaVos 2012

how you Can ConTriBuTe To The iDrC Davos 2012 ouTComes rePorT

IDRC Davos 2012’s theme is “Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society”. How do we move to a safer world and increase societies’ resilience and how can our current know-how support this change process? IDRC Davos 2012 will attempt to find answers and offer solutions to today’s challenges in reducing risks and managing disasters.

The biennial IDRC Davos conferences are held in alternate years to the UNISDR Global Platforms and the two events can thus be considered complementary. The 2013 Global Platform is of particular importance because of its role in setting the global agenda for the strategy to be adopted after the UNISDR’s Hyogo Framework for Action formally expires in 2015. It is expected that the succeeding vision and strategy will build upon the strengths of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) and adapt it to new imperatives. There is a consensus that the HFA needs to be made more operational, which will involve adding much practical detail to the existing strategy.

The main questions to be addressed are as follows:

1. what are the dominant and developing trends in risks and disasters in the modern world?

2. how can the implementation of the hyogo Framework for action (h.F.a.) be strengthened and what sort of instruments should be developed after the h.F.a.?

3. what are the principal issues for the future in disaster risk reduction and resilience, and how should they be tackled?

IDRC Davos 2012 can also to be seen as an event that follows up the latest UN Conference on Sustainable Development Meeting (UNCSD), Rio+20, which highlighted the following areas for priority attention: adequate employment, energy security, sustainable cities, food security, sustainable agriculture, water supplies, oceans and disaster readiness. All of these are relevant to the concept of risk and thus should not be seen in isolation from one another. In synthesis, disaster risk reduction (DRR) and resilience need to be incorporated into sustainable development goals.

There is a need to identify the key terms, main trends and most crucial issues in DRR and resilience and to determine how much consensus exists on these matters. There is also a need to document (a) emerging consensuses, (b) innovative ideas, and (c) developing common viewpoints.

These three main questions can be extended as follows (see Questionnaire in your conference bag or online at: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/IDRC2012outcomes )

1. Dominant and developing trends in risks and disasters.1.1. What are the most important current and potential future trends in risks and disasters and their impacts?1.2. Do society’s variable risk perceptions influence the allocation of resources and investment decisions?1.3. Vulnerability to disasters has many drivers: Socio-economic, demographic, and health-related factors, and governance

institutions can have a major influence on coping and adaptive capacity in local communities – are we aware of all these drivers?

1.4. How can resilience to disasters be increased in a time of global economic crises, decreasing resource availability at local, national and international levels and a climate change driven increase of disaster risk - how can more be achieved with less?

1.5. As disasters (rather than merely extreme phenomena) are essentially human phenomena, what has society to expect from disasters during the next ten years?

1.6. As a corollary of this, broadly what forms of organisation, resourcing and investment will be needed in order to face up to the problem of risks and disasters over the period 2015-25?

2. following up the hyogo framework for action.2.1. What has the HFA achieved so far on local, regional, national and international level? Has it been an effective instrument

for stimulating preparedness and policy formulation?2.2. What kind of success stories and concrete examples of good practice related to the HFA can so far be identified? 2.3. Are the various stakeholders (in particular the private sector) adequately integrated and involved in the HFA process? 2.4. During the next decade, what should be done to improve the effectiveness of the Hyogo Framework for Action, or what

sort of strategy, instruments and tools should be used in place of it?2.5. How can investment for disaster risk reduction be encouraged (to be seen as an investment for safer future and

sustainability, not as an additional cost)?

3. The principal issues for the future.3.1. What kind of strategy should the world focus on in order to stimulate disaster risk reduction by 2025?3.2. How can resilience be achieved?3.3. In what ways are the processes of reducing vulnerability to disasters and improving resilience complementary?3.4. How can disaster risk reduction be made sustainable and how can it be linked to the world’s general sustainability

agenda (for lifestyles, livelihoods and resource stewardship)?

We are going to produce a report to summarize the outcomes of IDRC Davos 2012. For input we need YOUR answers to these crucial questions above. Please write your thoughts down on the questionnaire that is available at the GRF Davos booth and post it in the yellow box at our GRF Davos booth in front of the plenary hall or submit it online by using our Survey Monkey at:http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/IDRC2012outcomes

ouTComes oF iDrC DaVos 2012

72

general informaTion anD emergenCy

Phone numbers

Taxi:Express-Taxi Tel. +41 (0)81 410 11 11Delta-Taxi Tel. +41 (0)81 401 14 14

zurich airport:Telephone: +41(0)43 816 22 11Email: [email protected]

other information

Banking:Local currency: Swiss Francs / 1 CHF = 100 Rappen Payment with credit cards and in EURO, other currencies may be accepted

Currency exchange rateExchange rate CHF 1.- : 0.80 EURO; 1.- EURO : CHF 1.20

Banks (opening hours):Mon - Fri 08:30/09:00 - 12:00 and 14:00 - 16.30/17.30

Train stations (opening hours):Davos Dorf: Mon - Sun 07:40 - 11:40 and 13:50 - 18:10Davos Platz: Mon - Sun 04:45 - 22:00

Business hours:08:00 - 12:0014:00 - 18:00

guest PassAll hotel guests are entitled to a guest pass for the duration of their stay in Davos. This entitles guests to a variety of discounts including unlimited public transport on some routes, discounted tours and child minding. Please check with your hotel for details.

BusThe local bus is free with the guest pass. Without it costs approximately CHF 3.00 per ticket which is valid for 1 hour of travel.

inTerneT wireless aCCess CoDeUsername: IDRCPassword: 2012

emergency numbers

Emergency call numberTel. 144

REGA (Swiss air-rescue) Tel. 1414

Spital Davos (Hospital)Promenade 4, Davos PlatzTel. +41 (0)81 414 88 88

Pharmacy:Amavita Apotheke Davos Platz(Kongress Apotheke)Promenade 49, 7270 Davos PlatzTel. +41 (0)58 851 32 07

Police (Emergency call number)Tel. 117

iDrC Davos 2012 volunteers

amin rubina, SwitzerlandBanizaman lari farhad, IranBeccari Benjamin, NepalBecker marlene, GermanyBlankstein simone, CanadaChamlagain Deepak, ItalyChen feiran, GermanyColombini Thomas, Switzerlandeftekhari narges, Iranhua zhenyang, ChinaKazak liudmila, SwitzerlandKoper ryanne, Netherlandsliepold annka, Germany

magni michele, Italymbohno Pamela Bibi, Germanymulokozi rwiza Christopher, TanzaniaPeters felix, Germanyrichter ina, Germanyschmitt emilia, Switzerlandsumardjono ervita, Switzerlandvan staveren martijn, Netherlands vargova Jana, Slovakiaweeresinghe shayani, Sri Lankawu yanjuan, China

general inFormaTion & emergenCY

IDRC Davos 2010 volunteers

73

IDRC DAVOS 2012

Proceedings of the International Disaster and Risk Conference

IDRC Davos 2012

International Disaster and Risk Conference

26 - 30 August 2012

Edited byMarc Stal

Stéphanie JaquetAndrea Roth

Manuela StifflerWalter Ammann

Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland

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IDRC DAVOS 2012IDRC DAVOS 2012

Table of ContentsAbstracts are sorted alphabetically according to the first author or chair listed and divided into groups according to the type of presentation/session (Oral Presentations; Poster Presentations, Sessions & Workshops).

Oral Presentations 99

Mainstreaming Pandemic Preparedness into Multi-Hazard Readiness ABDULLAH (TBC), Amir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

Safe water adaptability index for salinity, arsenic and drought risk in south-west of Bangladesh ABEDIN, Md. Anwarul; SHAW, Rajib . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

A study of the performance of risk and vulnerability assessments by Swedish Public Agencies ABRAHAMSSON, Marcus (1,2); ERIKSSON, Kerstin (1,2); HASSEL, Henrik (1,2); PETERSEN, Kurt (1,2);

TEHLER, Henrik (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

Building community resilience by integrating disaster risk reduction and health system strengthening AEBISCHER, Christina; JOEHR, Anton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

Building national pandemic preparedness through strengthening non health sectors: Indonesia’s lesson learnt) AGUSTIONO, Emil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

Crisis Management: Needs, Gaps and Opportunities AL KHUDAIRY, delilah Helen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

Building a safe municipality Morelia, Michoacàn, Méxiko ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); NOCCETI, Manuel (2); DÍAZ, Rogelio (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

How to motivate private sector participants to invest in mitigating and adapting to systemic risks ALDRICH, Stephen C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

management of flood risks at the city of Tabuk AL-MOMANI, Ayman Hassan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

FASTID project - FAST and efficient international disaster victim IDentification AMBS, Peter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

2012-2025 roadmap of I.R.Iran's Health Disaster Management ARDALAN, Ali (1); RAJAEI, Mohammad Hossein (1); MASOOMI, Gholamreza (2); AZIN, Seyed Ali (3);

ZONOOBI, Vahid (2); SARVAR, Mohammad (2); VASKOUIE, Khorshid (2); AHMADNEZHAD, Elham (1); JAFARI, Gelareh (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

Fuel cycle risks imposed by a nuclear growth scenario ARNOLD, Nikolaus; GUFLER, Klaus; SHOLLY, Steven C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

Risk concept for natural hazards on motorway in Switzerland ARNOLD, Philippe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

Enabling small businesses to develop their business continuity plan: York University business continuity planning toolkit for small businesses

ASGARY, Ali; KONG, Albert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

The planning and implementation of earthquake scenario in megacities AZIZI, Amir; BAGHBANNEZHAD, Abolghassem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

Please note that during the editorial process only minor grammatical and spelling corrections were made to the abstracts.

All rights reserved.This publication may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from the publisher, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

Published and distributed by the Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, 7270 Davos Platz, Switzerland. Tel.: +41 (0)81 414 16 00; Fax: +41 (0)81 414 16 10; www.grforum.org

Copyright © Global Risk Forum GRF DavosPrinted in Switzerland by Buchdruckerei Davos AG, Davos, Switzerland.

Digitalized extended abstracts are available at IDRC Davos 2012 and upon request at [email protected] .

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Critical infrastructure vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reduction BACH, Claudia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

Early warning and the human factor - people-centered warning systems and awareness are key BARTHELT, Christian H.; LOSTER, Thomas R. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

Heterogeneous Structural Development in megacities in Iran; a Factor hindering optimal performance of rescue forces in crisis response phase

BATHAEE, Reza (1); Hossein TEIMOORI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

Maximise your returns in crisis management preparedness: a cyclic approach to training and exercises BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); ABRAHAM, Philip (3); BRAAKHEKKE, Erie (1,4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

Dynamic potential in disaster exercises: identifcation – development – evaluation BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); KALTENBRUNNER, Katharina Anna (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

FORIN or Farout ? Exploring multiple drivers of disaster risks in Africa BENOUAR, Djillali (1); ROVINS, Jane (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

Identifying and preparing for threats to critical infrastructure during protests or civil unrest BERNIER, Suzanne Naomi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

International municipal cooperation as a modality for transferring local best practices in disaster risk management: practice, promise and pitfalls

BERSE, Kristoffer (1); ASAMI, Yasushi (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

The Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network: strengthening the public health prevention and outbreak control strategy

BERTHERAT, Eric (1); JANCLOES, Michel (2); FIRTH, Emily (1); DURSKI, Kara (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

Empowering communities to cope with disaster risks through community-based disaster management BHADRA, Manash Ronjan; KANAK, NNM Mujibuddaula Sardar Kanak; ISLAM, Rabiul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

Tale of two cities: developing city reliance strategies under climate change scenarios for Indore and Surat, India BHAT, Gopalakrishna; RAJASEKAR, Umamaheshwaran; KARANTH, Anup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: new challenges and new insights from the IPCC SREX report and own Studies

BIRKMANN, Joern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

A time series analysis of climate variability and its impact on food production in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia BOKA, Gutu Tesso; EMANA, Dr. Bezabih; KETEMA, Dr. Mengistu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

Enhancing regional resilience to cope with critical infrastructure disruptions: the public-private partnership experience in Lombardy Region, Italy

BOUCHON, Sara (1); DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); TRUCCO, Paolo (2); ZACCONE, Andrea (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

User requirements assessment to support the integrated risk management decision-making process BOUCHON, Sara; DIMAURO, Carmelo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

A comparison of regular and disrupted operations for route planning in freight transportation BROCK, Maximilian (1); MATTEIS, Tilman (2); HAYDEN, Cristina (1); ZHANG, Li (2); GROSS, Wendelin (1) . . . . . . . . . 109

Societal Security – the new standard ISO 22301 for Business Continuity Management BRUSAMOLINO, Luigi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

The Greater Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011: a case study in the communication of science for disaster risk reduction

BRYNER, Vivienne (1,2); NORRIS, Richard (2); FLEMING, Jean (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

Are private flood mitigation measures successfully contributing to contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany?

BUBECK, Philip (1,2); BOTZEN, Wouter (2); KREIBICH, Heidi (1); AERTS, Jeroen (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

Does risk communication raise property owners’ preparedness to implement safety measures against flood damage? BUCHECKER, Matthias; MAIDL, Elisabeth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

Comparative risk assessment of energy technologies in the context of energy security and sustainability BURGHERR, Peter; ECKLE, Petrissa; HIRSCHBERG, Stefan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

Dealing with disaster in transitional democracies BYNANDER, Fredrik (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

Bridging sustainably the last mile connectivity in India and Myanmar CAPISTRANO, Melgabal (1); SINGH, Nagendra (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

DRHOUSE project: the ASA module for the post earthquake structural assessment CASAROTTI, Chiara; PAVESE, Alberto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

Lessons Learned from Multi Casualty incidents response by Magen David Adom Israel CASPI, Guy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

Training programs for risk reduction of typhoon disaster chains in southeast coastal region of China CHANG, Sheng (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2); LEI, Yongdeng (1,2); MA, Liang (1); LI, Qunfang (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

Disaster cultural resilience of religious communities – case study from Sri Lanka post 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami CHEN, Ted Yu Shen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

The climate change impact and adaptation strategy on disaster in Taiwan CHEN, Yung-ming (1); CHEN, Liang-chun (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

Development of natural disaster damage investigation system using smartphone in Korea CHO, Jae Woong; CHOI, Woo Jung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

Causes of success and failure in post disaster reconstruction projects – a case study of post 2005 earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction in Northern Pakistan

CHOUDHARY, Muhammad Abbas (1); MEHMOOD, Kashif (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

Posttraumatic stress and psychiatric co-morbidity following bombing in Iraq: the role of shattered world assumptions and altered self-capacities

CHUNG, Man Cheung (1); FREH, Fuaad Mohammed (2); DALLOS, Rudi (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

What role for soldiers? CLARKE, John L. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

Strengthening resilience through learning and transformation CLOT, Nicole . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

USA building code changes resulting from 9/11 attacks CORLEY, William Gene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

A long term building capacity model that prepares for effective disaster relief COUPET, Sidney; COPPOLA, Christopher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

How the emergency 2.0 Wiki can help build resilient communities, empowered with the knowledge to use web 2.0 and social media in emergencies

CULLETON, Eileen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

Proposed seismic risk reduction program for lifelines in the megacity of Tehran, Iran DARDAEI, Sadegh; SHAKIB, Hamzeh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

Addressing risks of water stress in farming by smallholders: examples from India DAS GUPTA, Partha R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

Environmental and ecological solutions 21st century technology DE LA POMERAI, Garry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

READ - Risk Exposure Awareness and Deflection - creating an organization-wide risk awareness program DE LANDGRAAF, Arjen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

A comparison of functional outcomes at one year between two cohorts of patients with extremity limb trauma following the Haitian earthquake in 2010

DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (1); LE PERFF, Hervé (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (2); MULLER, Joel (2); KHALLAF, Nezha (2); SHANG, Lou (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

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One-year follow up of care received by a cohort of patients treated with limb amputation following the earthquake in Haiti

DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (1); LE PERFF, Hervé (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (2); MULLER, Joel (2); KHALLAF, Nezha (2); SHANG, Lou (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

Developing best practices for the resettlement of environmental migrants: the next step DES MARAIS, Eric Anthony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

Bundling of risks for disaster proofing DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

Integrating science with practice to advocate tsunami risk reduction interventions DI MAURO, Manuela (1); GRIFFIN, Jonathan (2); WIBOWO, Agus (3); TUCKER, Brian (4);

MEGAWATI, Kusnowidjaja (1,5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

A regional multi-risk assessment approach to support the definition public mitigation strategies DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); BULDRINI, Marco (2); OLIVERI, Stefano (3); SEMINATI, Paolo (3); FRATTINI, Paolo (4). . . . 120

Weather aware, climate prepared. DONOVAN, Tim; BUTCHER, Tom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

Underpinning sustainability with advanced and visual analytics within the intelligent operations center DONOVANG-KUHLISCH, Margarete Charlotte (1); SMALL, Michael Kenneth (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

Early detection, surveillance of wildfires and the integration into fire management systems DREIBACH, Joachim Franz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

A new public health concept for risk governance of vector-borne infections DRESSEL, Kerstin Maja; SCHUELE, Steffen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

Taking into account socio-cultural factors to improve alerting strategies DRESSEL, Kerstin; PFEIL, Patricia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

A disaster management framework for coping with acts of extreme violence in school settings: a field study DUMITRIU, Camelia (1); HUTU, Carmen Aida (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

Risk of large oil spills: A statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deep Water Horizon ECKLE, Petrissa; BURGHERR, Peter; MICHAUX, Edouard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

Integrative risk management EGGENBERGER, René . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

Processing satellite imagery for mapping physical exposure globally EHRLICH, Daniele; HALKIA, Stamatia; KEMPER, Thomas; PESARESI, Martino; SOILLE, Pierre. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) ELGIN, K. Gokhan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

Risk assessment of the buried fuel pipelines in the City of Kermanshah, Iran ESKANDARI, Mohammad; SADEGHI KOMJANI, Niloofar; MOGHIMI, Sanam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

Understanding risk communication: the acceptability of risk communication in a multilingual Europe ESMAIL, Zarah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

A preliminary study of flash flood in Hunan Province, China - spatio-temporal characteristics, trends and risk management

FANG, Jian; DU, Juan; XU, Wei; SHI, Peijun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

Considering social and cultural dimension of resilient cities FARZAD BEHTASH, Mohammad Reza (1); KEYNEJHAD, Mohammad Ali (2); PIRBABAEI, Mohammad Taghi (3);

AGHABABAEI, Mohammad Taghi (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

Vulnerability assessment of urban building stock: a hierarchic approach FERREIRA, Tiago (1); VICENTE, Romeu (1); VARUM, Humberto (1); MENDES DA SILVA, J.A.R. (2);

COSTA, Aníbal (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

The DITAC Project - Development of a Disaster Training curriculum (DITAC) FISCHER, Philipp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

The impact of uncertainties and risks on cooperation and conflict in transboundary water management FISCHHENDLER, Itay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe: the MATRIX project FLEMING, Kevin Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

Risk engineering decision tools for risk management support FORTE, Marcello; SALVADOR, Emanuele . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

Natural disaster mitigation and earth observations: a Group on Earth Observations perspective. GAETANI, Francesco; CRIPE, Douglas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

Building a global exposure database GAMBA, Paolo (1); CROWLEY, Helen (2); KELLER, Nicole (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

A resilience based analysis framework for critical infrastructures protection GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios; FILIPPINI, Roberto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

Harmonization of seismic hazard assessment: the SHARE example GIARDINI, Domenico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

RAPID-N: A tool for mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes GIRGIN, Serkan (1); KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

The Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD): announcing a new dataset GIROUX, Jennnifer (1); BURGHERR, Peter (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

The impact on the public of preventive information about risks GLATRON, Sandrine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

Prevention of major accidents in road transportation of dangerous goods GLOOR, Adrian Robert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

Insurance for the Rural Smallholder Farmer: Kilimo Salama GOSLINGA, Rose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

Experiences of working for improving state of community based disaster preparedness in Mumbai city GOVALE, Ajay R. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

Floating ecocities as a strategy to reduce the vulnerability of delta areas GRAAF, Rutger De (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

A wind erosion case study in an alpine meadow (Davos, Switzerland) compared to wind tunnel experiments with live plants

GRAF, Frank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

Preparedness of CBRNE incident management within the EU GRAN, Hans-Christian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

The role of economics in making better sustainable flood risk management decisions GREEN, Colin; VIAVATTENE, Christophe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

Mastering the ante in critical infrastructures – a Swiss approach to visualizing trends, realizing opportunities and defeating threats

GRUBER, Marco (1); DOERIG, Adolf (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

Risk, altruism and resilience in post-tsunami Indonesia: a gendered perspective GUARNACCI, Ugo (1); DI GIROLAMO, Amalia (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

Enhancing farmer’s resilience toward droughts: perspective from northwestern region of Bangladesh HABIBA, Umma; SHAW, Rajib; TAKEUCHI, Yukiko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

Early warning of glacial lake outburst floods and climate change monitoring in the Karakoram mountains, P.R. China HAEMMIG, Christoph (1); KEUSEN, Hansrudolf (1); HESS, Josef (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

Seven elements for capacity development for disaster risk reduction HAGELSTEEN, Magnus (1,2); BECKER, Per (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

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Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) – a strategic Swedish initiative for disaster risk reduction HALLDIN, Sven (1,2); BYNANDER, Fredrik (1,3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

Enhancing urban resilience to extreme waters: The WASH and RESCUE Initiative HAN, Guoyi (1); JOHANNESSEN, Åse (1); PÅLSSON, Anders (2); ROSEMARIN, Arno (1); RUBEN, Cecilia (1);

STENSTRÖM, Thor Axel (1); SWARTLING, Åsa (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

Making and unmaking human security: the limits of state power in reducing risk and creating resilience HANDMER, John; MCLENNAN, Blythe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

World Health Organization: health security preparedness HARPER, David Ross . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

Have we finally found the elusive "Higgs Boson" particle of disaster risk Reduction? HAYS, Walter West . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

The Emergency Support System - ESS: Concept and technology HAZZANI, Gideon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

Social vulnerability to natural hazards in China HE, Shuai; YANG, Saini; YE, Jiayuan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

A framework for sustainable natural hazard management HEDELIN, Beatrice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135

Protection against muddy floods: perception of one protection system (fascines) for local actors in Alsace (France) HEITZ, Carine (1); FLINOIS, Géraldine (1,2); GLATRON, Sandrine (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135

Low cost flood early warning systems based on linking local governments and communities in the Philippines HERNANDO, Hilton (1); NEUSSNER, Olaf (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135

Emergency Support System - ESS : The web-portal HERRERO, Jose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136

Investigating the performance of coastal ecosystems for hazard mitigation HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L (1); SAMARAWICKRAMA, Saman. P (1); RATNASOORIYA, Harsha (1);

FERNANDO, Joe (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136

Tsunami risk assessment and management - case studies from Sri Lanka HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L; SAMARAWICKRAMA, Saman.P; WIJERATNE, Nimal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136

Does environmental degradation lead the way out of Chuuk, FSM?Rebecca HOFMANN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137

Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a national climate change adaptation strategy in Switzerland HOLTHAUSEN, Niels (1); KÖLLNER-HECK, Pamela (2); BRÜNDL, Michael (3); LOCHER, Peter (1);

PÜTZ, Marco (4); PERCH-NIELSEN, Sabine (1); BLASER, Lilian (1); PROBST, Thomas (2); HOHMANN, Roland (2) . 137

Analysis of evacuation system and resident's cognition on coastal disaster prevention HONG, Sung Jin; PARK, Hyung Seong; KIM, Dong Seag . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137

Strengthening resilience at community level; linking up community DM with Government DM HUERLIMANN, Maja . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

Integrated assessment of high mountain hazards and related prevention strategies in the Peruvian Cordilleras HUGGEL, Christian (1); HAEBERLI, Wilfried (1); PORTOCARRERO, César (2); COCHACHIN, Alejo (3);

SCHNEIDER, Demian (1); ROHRER, Mario (4); GARCIA, Javier (5); SCHLEISS, Anton (5); SALZMANN, Nadine (1) . 138

Tsunami awareness in Bander Chabahar, south of Iran IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. (1); ZAKER, Nasser H. (2); FAKHRI BAFGHI, Bibielham (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139

OECD High Level Risk Forum and Framework for Disaster Risk Management JACOBZONE, Stéphane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139

Vulnerability analysis of women's health in natural disasters and proposed strategies for risk reduction JAHANGIRI, Katayoun (2); IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. (1); SADIGHI, Jila (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139

Integrated risk assessment tools for decision-making. A case study from landslide affected mountain areas in Central Nepal

JAQUET, Stephanie (1); SUDMEIER-RIEUX, Karen I (2); DERRON, Marc-Henri (3); JABOYEDOFF, Michel (3) . . . . . . . 139

Diagnosis of climate-related risks by using a Bayesian updating method – a case study of summer temperature in China JIN, YunYun (1,2); WANG, Ming (1,2); SHI, PeiJun (1,2); YANG, SaiNi (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

Rural hazards and vulnerability assessment in the downstream sector of Shiroro dam, Nigeria JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

Social learning in education – an important step in practical integration of preventive risk reduction and adaptation to climate change

JOHANSSON, Magnus (1,2); NYBERG, Lars (1); EVERS, Mariele (1,3); HANSSON, Max (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

Recovery and resilience of industry and geographic sectors after the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes KACHALI, Hlekiwe (1); SEVILLE, Erica (2); VARGO, John (2,3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

The ISMEP activities on raising public awareness, education and volunteering KADIOGLU, Mikdat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction into the Curriculum: A Technical Guidance Tool KAGAWA, Fumiyo; SELBY, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

Using dasymetrics to address the aggregation error in spatial data: a multi-criteria approach for flood vulnerability assessment using spatial data

KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

Indirect economic impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake: approach by Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model

KAJITANI, Yoshio (1); TATANO, Hirokazu (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

Landslide risk management issues in SafeLand KALSNES, Bjørn (1); NADIM, Farrokh (1); BAYER, Joanne (2); SCOLOBIG, Anna (2); CASCINI, Leonardo (3); FERLISI, Settimio

(3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

Hybrid socio-technical approach for effective risk communication, risk management and early warning system KARNAWATI, Dwikorita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

African Risk Capacity – Sovereign Disaster Risk Management for Africa KASSAM, Fatima . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

Cultural landscape of DRR in Russia KAVTARADZE, Dmitry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

Strategic risk management by a roads provider KELLERHALS, Christian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

Addressing risk and resilience: an analysis of Māori communities and cultural technologies in response to the Christchurch earthquakes

KENNEY, Christine Marie (1); JOHNSTON, David (2); PATON, Douglas (3); REID, John (4); PHIBBS, Suzanne Rachel (5) 144

Haiti, two years later: What has happened to the injured? Factors affecting social integration of the 12th January 2010 earthquake victims in Port-au-Prince

KHALLAF, Nezha (1); SHANG, Lou (1); MULLER, Joel (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (2); BLACKWELL, Nikki (2); DELAUCHE, Marie-Christine (2); LE PERFF, Hervé (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

Medical treatment options and patient preference: the case of the limb-trauma victims of the earthquake in Haiti on January 12, 2010

KHALLAF, Nezha (1); SHANG, Lou (1); MULLER, Joel (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (2); DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (2); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (2); LE PERFF, Hervé (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

Tsunami hazard mapping through characteristic analysis of inundation KIM, Dong Seag; PARK, Hyoung Seong; HONG, Sung Jin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

Can the PFI model mitigate risk in non-infrastructure procurement? KINGSMILL-VELLACOTT, Anna; SIDERMAN-WOLTER, Kirk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

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82 83


Technology use aspects of alerting systems KLAFFT, Michael (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

Building Resilient Business KOCSIS, Otto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

Livelihood improvement of the poorest farmer through degraded forest management in Nepal KOIRALA, Pashupati Nath . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

Area wide risk assessment – a best practice example in the Province of the Tyrol KOLER, Andreas; HAMA, Angela Michiko; ORTNER, Stefan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

Preliminary study of the relationship between new risk factors and traditional risk factors - taking the relationship between the population urbanization and natural disasters in China’s county-level units for example

KONG, Feng (1,3); SHI, Peijun (1,2,3); SUN, Shao (1,3); LI, Man (1,3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

Natech accidents following the great eastern japan earthquake and tsunami KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (1); CRUZ, Ana Maria (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

The role of societal context in severe technical accidents KROMP, Wolfgang (1); ANDREEV, Iouli (1); ANREEVA, Irina (1); GIERSCH, Martin (2); KROMP-KOLB, Helga (3) . . . . 148

The risk of the wrong priorities in university education KROMP-KOLB, Helga (1); LINDENTHAL, Thomas (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148

Resilience: from theory to practice KUNDAK, Seda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148

Initial medical care of Chemical patients LATASCH, Leo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

Hospital & EMS – real time information SOGRO LATASCH, Leo (1); DI GENNARO, Mario (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

Terrorist Train Bombings in Madrid. Learned Lessons LEIS, Carmen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

Same problem – different solutions: Spanish Model LEIS, Carmen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

The regional economic impact of catastrophe - case study on the China-Japan auto industry after the Great East Japan Earthquake

LI, Man; SHI, Peijun; FANG, Jian; NIE, Jianliang; YE, Tao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

Integrated management of the mangrove forest ecosystem for improved climate resilience in Vietnam LONG, Tran Kim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

Old issues, new approaches - public private partnerships for effective recovery and reconstruction LOVE, Gavin John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

Occupational health of front line workers responding to earthquakes in New Zealand: workplace cultures- vulnerability, resistance and resilience.

LOVELOCK, Kirsten Marina (1); MCBRIDE, David (1); SHEPHERD, Daniel (2); BILLINGTON, Rex (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

Informed response via satellite based technologies MACINNES, Iain Hay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152

Emergency Support System - ESS: System’s field tests MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152

Human settlement indices for bushfire risk in Australia MARCH, Alan Peter (1); GROENHART, Lucy (1); LEONARD, Justin (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152

The multirisk approach for the Pays A3V, France, BRGM MARÇOT, Nathalie; MIRGON, Carola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

3D-simulation of integrated natural and man-made hazards MARININ, Igor (1,2); KABANIKHIN, Sergey (2); MARCHUK, Andrey (2,3); KRIVOROTKO, Olga (3); KARAS, Adel (1);

KHIDASHELI, David (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

DRR in fragile context (Afghanistan) MARTHALER, Esther . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

Participation and reduction of local disasters MARTÍN, Sebastián (1); DORTA, Pedro (2); ROMERO, Carmen (2); MAYER, Pablo (3); DÍAZ, Jaime (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

Rebuilding Cities after crises: Lessons learnt from urban disaster and conflictsAnsa MASAUD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

Understanding and Measuring Urban Resilience: A new UN-Habitat's initiative MASAUD, Ansa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

Climate change, natural resources, institution and the value of research from a global to a local perspective in Mwanga district Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania

MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155

How do different geohazards affect mortality and economic losses? MCADOO, Brian G.; KRENITSKY, Nicole; AUGENSTEIN, Jared; ZELTZER, Matthew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155

A community-driven approach to material management in post-disaster reconstruction MCGRATH, Riona; VON MEDING, Jason; OYEDELE, Lukumon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155

The Protection of environmental refugees through international public law MEUTSCH, Anja . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

Cost assessment of natural hazards – state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and recommendations MEYER, Volker (1); BECKER, Nina (1); MARKANTONIS, Vasileios (1); SCHWARZE, Reimund (1);

AERTS, Jeroen C. J. H. (2); VAN DEN BERGH, Jeroen C. J. M. (3); BOUWER, Laurens M. (2); BUBECK, Philip (4); CIAVOLA, Paolo (5); DANIEL, Vanessa (2); GENOVESE, Elisabetta (6); GREEN, Colin (7); HALLEGATTE, Stéphane (6); KREIBICH, Heidi (4); LEQUEUX, Quentin (5); LOCHNER, Bernhard (8); LOGAR, Ivana (3); PAPYRAKIS, Elissaios (2); PFURTSCHELLER, Clemens (8); POUSSIN, Jennifer (2); PRZYLUSKI, Valentin (6); THIEKEN, Annegret H. (8,9); THOMPSON, Paul (7); VIAVATTENE, Christophe (7) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

Private sector-civil society partnership opportunities for resilience building MITCHELL, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

Integrative disaster risk management: case study from India on social and economic re-construction” MITRA, Swati; GULATI, Naresh (,) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

Global perspective on seismic risk reduction and resilient disaster reconstruction MIYAMOTO, H Kit; GILANI, Amir S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

Risk Management of Natural Disasters in Morocco: a project of Global and Integrated Strategy MOHAMED, Tabyaoui . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

The role of local actors for creating effective risk governance culture MOLIN-VALDES, Helena . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

Agricultural risk micro-insurance product for Mozambique MORTGAT, Christian P. (1); STOJANOVSKI, Pane (2); BOISSONNADE, Auguste C. (2); BERNHARDT, Alex (3) . . . . . . . 158

Beyond pandemics: a whole of society approach to disaster preparedness MOSSELMANS, Michael Lodowick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

Management of the continuity services in water infrastructure (case study: emergency drinking water management in Tehran metropolitan)

MOZAFARI, Abdollah; JEDDI, Seyed Majid; MOHAMMADI, Sakineh; JALALI, Gholam Reza . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

Annualized catastrophe mortalities and driving long term risk reduction MUIR-WOOD, Robert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

Cultural Role in Risk and Disaster Management, A case study from Uganda, Africa MUKASA, Abass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160

Kampala Capital City Authority. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160

Characteristics of safe and resilient communities and key determinants of successful disaster risk reduction programmes MUKHIER, Mohammed Omer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160

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84 85


Critical infrastructure disruptions: a generic system dynamic approach for decision support MÜNZBERG, Thomas (1); COMES, Tina (2); SCHULTMANN, Frank (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160

Evaluating disaster preparedness in West Sumatra MURPHY, Eila Sinikka . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

Risk shrink: exploring the psychology of risk MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

Understanding your risk environment MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

Controversy and crisis management MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162

Land use change and human health in the Eastern Himalayas: an adaptive ecosystem NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162

A reasonable success story of vertical evacuation against tropical cyclones in India NIRUPAMA, Niru (1); MURTY, Tad (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162

Economic impact of disasters in the Caribbean and experience with CCRIF NIXON, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

Disasters in arctic areas NJAA, Ove; GUDMESTAD, Ove Tobias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

The role of land use planning in the disaster risk reduction NOJAVAN, Mehdi (1); SADEGHIAN, Alireza (1); MOHAJERAN, Mahsa (2); SOBANI, Abdollah (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

A study on the various types of community-based disaster management in mid-sized cities in Japan: a case study from Saijo City

OCHIAI, Chiho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

Extreme forest fires and predictive power of fire danger Indexes: a deepening in the Alpine region OLIVERI, Stefano (4); COCCA, Giampaolo (1); CANE, Daniele (2); BARBARINO, Simona (2);

COMINI, Bruna (1); GEROSA, Giacomo (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164

Security and safety of cross-border infrastructure OLIVERO, Sergio (1); MIGLIORINI, Massimo (1); STIRANO, Federico (1); CALANDRI, Fabrizio (1); FAVA, Umberto (2) 164

Building Resilient Nations and Communities OXLEY, Marcus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164

Developing realistic rapid earthquake damage evaluation method for decision making, using GIS. Case study: Iran Kerman city

PANAHI, Ali; VALIZADEH, Reza; KARIMZADEH, Morteza; FATHI, Leila . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

Development of tsunami disaster response system in Korea PARK, Hyoung Seong; HONG, Sung Jin; KIM, Dong Seag . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

The benefits of alerting system based on standardised libraries PARRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina (1); MULERO CHAVES, Javier (1); MENDES, Miguel (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

Cross-border alerting PÁRRAGA-NIEBLA, Cristina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

From displacements to migrations: the earthquake of Messina (1908) and the earthquake of the Belice Valley (1968) PARRINELLO, Giacomo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

Towards an interdisciplinary framework for understanding the role of culture in the post disaster reconstruction process PASUPULETI, Ram Sateesh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

Risk for financial agencies in providing affordable disaster insurance to developing countries PATEL, Saumyang M; HASTAK, Makarand PhD, PE, CCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167

Assessing school safety from disasters- a baseline study (on video) PETAL, Marla . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167

Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greece PETSETI, Aglaia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167

Simulation and optimization of cascading effects - strategic multilayered risk management PICKL, Stefan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

The role of the European Standards for Construction (Eurocodes) for earthquake risk mitigation PINTO, Artur; TAUCER, Fabio Federico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

The importance of a systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of complex urban, regional, national or pan-European systems comprising buildings, transportation, lifelines, utility networks and critical facilities

PITILAKIS, Kyriazis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

Governance in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: a pan European perspective PLA, Francesc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

Impact of climate change, land use change and residential mitigation measures on damage and risk assessment POUSSIN, Jennifer K. (1,2); WARD, Philip J. (1,2); BUBECK, Philip (1,2,3); AERTS, Jeroen C.J.H. (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

Design guidelines for human computer interfaces supporting fire emergency response PRASANNA, Raj (1); YANG, Lili (2); KING, Malcolm (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

Decision making for resilience in critical infrastructure governance PRIOR, Tim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

Risk cultures, the social construction of risk, and coordinated responses to global and systemic risks PRIOR, Tim; GIROUX, Jennifer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170

Emergency Support System - ESS : The end-user perspective RAFALOWSKI, Chaim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170

Crisis management and security research – an end user perspective RAFALOWSKI, Chaim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170

MDA Response to a Mass Casualty Toxicological Accident RAFALOWSKI, Chaim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171

Satellite application for non-structural flood risk management in Pakistan RAFIQ, Lubna (1); BLASCHKE, Thomas (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171

Mitigation of global volatility of food supply/demand risk through innovations in crop insurance schemes RAWAL, Sonia A. (1); BOISSONNADE, Auguste C. (1); TAN, John (2); SHAH, Haresh C. (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171

Risky talks and talking risks in disaster management: a way forward or backward? RAY-BENNETT, Nibedita Shankar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172

Social Perspectives on Land Degradation and Desertification: The Case of Migration and Conflict RECHKEMMER, Andreas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172

Risk culture: implications for risk governance RENN, Ortwin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172

Social unrest: a systemic risk perspective RENN, Ortwinn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172

Enhancing community resilience for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction – a case study from Cambodia RIZVI, Ali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173

Disaster Risk Management in Schools – The Second Pillar RODGERS, Ian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173

Development of guidelines for psychosocial support for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear (CBRN) incident

ROOZE, Magda W. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173

The dual use of field hospital in peace time and in war time. The Italian experience of Alpini field hospital during disasters.

ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra (1); FACCINCANI, Roberto (1); LOSAPIO, Lucio Pantaleo (2); CARLUCCI, Michele (1) . . . . 174

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GITEWS - The German Contribution to the Indonesian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning system: experiences and lessons learned

RUDLOFF, Alexander . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174

Role of local wisdom in rapidity of rehabilitation and reconstruction post earthquake in multireligious and monoreligious villages: a case in Bantul, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

RUSLANJARI, Dina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174

World Bank/GFDRR contributions to exposure modeling for global risk modeling initiatives and OpenDRI initiative SAITO, Keiko; KULL, Daniel; SODEN, Robert; BACA, Abigail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175

Sustainable reconstruction of critical infrastructure SALEH, Alida . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175

The role of emergency transportation network in crisis management SALEH, Fatemeh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176

Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy SALVATI, Paola; BIANCHI, Cinzia; ROSSI, Mauro; GUZZETTI, Fausto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176

Crisis, communication, social media SCHANNE, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176

The relevance of Integrative Risk Management to RCRC programming SCHMALE, Matthias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176

On risk governance - a reinsurer's view SCHRECKENBERG, Stephan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177

Severe accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe: possible consequences and mapping of risk SEIBERT, Petra (1); ARNOLD, Delia (1,4); MRAZ, Gabriele (3); ARNOLD, Nikolaus (2); GUFLER, Klaus (2);

KROMP-KOLB, Helga (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (2); SUTTER, Philipp (3); WENISH, Antonia (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177

A Global Mapping of Disaster Risk Reduction Curriculum SELBY, David; KAGAWA, Fumiyo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177

Analyzing the urban functions to prioritize urban flood resilient actions SERRE, Damien (1); LHOMME, Serge (1); TOUBIN, Marie (1); DIAB, Youssef (1); LAGANIER, Richard (2) . . . . . . . . . . . 178

Formation mechanism, process and risk evaluation system of disaster chain SHI, Peijun (1,2,3); WANG, Jing’ai (1,3,4); XU, Wei (2,3); SHUAI, Jiabing (1,2); LU, Lili (1,2); KONG, Feng (1,2); SHI, Qinqing (5)

178

Relationship of the environmental risk and surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau - a remote sensing evidence approach

SHI, Qinqing (1); LIANG, Shunlin (1); SHI, Peijun (2,3,4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178

Volunteers in disaster education centres: another important role of disaster education centres SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

What kind of disaster education should be explored after the Great East Japan Earthquake? SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

Spatio-temporal analyses of the impacts of extreme weather events on renewable energies and advancing local decision-making in climate mitigation concepts

SIEBER, Jeannette . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

Black swans, shapeshifters and flexibility SIKICH, Geary Wayne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180

Disaster risk reduction and education SIMONIAN, Guillaume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180

Policies for managing volatility in staple food prices in West Africa STAATZ, John; DEMBÉLÉ, Niama Nango; DIALLO, Boubacar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180

Risk reduction index - methodology and preliminary findings STEEN, Nicolai; CAMACHO, Belen; PALEY, Belen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

Impact of the 2011 drought among communities in Afghanistan SUMAR, Salim; TAJ, Laila Naz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

Disaster management information network - a community-based multi-hazard early warning information communication process

SYED, Md. Abu (1); RAHMAN, A.K.M. Atiqur (2); MAAINUDDIN, Golam (3); AHMED, Atiq K. (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

Policy impact and livelihood recovery of retailers in earthquake affected cities TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182

Measuring industrial production capacity caking account of malfunctions of production capital and lifeline systems disruptions caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March, 2011

TATANO, Hirokazu (1); KAJITANI, Yoshio (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182

Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe Directive (INSPIRE): contribution towards seismic risk and loss assessment

TAUCER, Fabio Federico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182

EU disaster risk reduction in the Asia Pacific: reducing the social vulnerability of children TAYLOR, Genevieve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

FMEA, Most Common Risk Assessment Method in Industry TEIMOORI, Hossein (1); BATHAEE, Reza (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Multi-Agency Surge Tactical Facility (MAST-F) - applicable lessons from a mobile hospital team THRALLS, Michael Kellyn (1,2,3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Hazard management in a debris flow affected area – Spreitgraben, Switzerland TOBLER, Daniel; KULL, Isabelle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184

School-based disaster risk reduction approach in building resilience for Central Vietnam TONG, Thi My Thi; SHAW, Rajib . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184

Promote urban resilience through collaborative urban services management TOUBIN, Marie (1,2,3); ARNAUD, Jean-Paul (1); SERRE, Damien (2); DIAB, Youssef (2); LAGANIER, Richard (3) . . . . . 184

A critical pedagogy of risk: empowering children with knowledge and skills for DRR TOWERS, Briony Clare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Mapping landslide risk in the Göta river valley, Sweden – methods and experiences TREMBLAY, Marius; ANDERSSON-SKÖLD, Yvonne; BENGTSSON, Per-Evert; FALEMO, Stefan; ÖBERG, Mats . . . . . . . 185

A training program for disaster mitigation through urban planning TURKOGLU, Handan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Disaster risk and vulnerability in coastal plains of Bangladesh: observations on human responses and local resilience to the effects of cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh

UDDIN, Mohammed Salim; HAQUE, C. Emdad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Community early warning systems: back to basics UDU-GAMA, Natasha Marie (1); THOMALLA, Frank (2); CARNEGIE, Michelle (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186

An ecosystem-based resilience analysis of Infanta, Quezon, Philippines UY, Noralene Menchavez; SHAW, Rajib . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186

Coping with floods in a riverbank-settlement in Jakarta, Indonesia. An interdisciplinary approach to human actor's heterogeneous risk-strategies

VAN VOORST, Roanne (1); HANDGRAAF, Michel (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186

Relationship between community empowerment and citizens' interest in participation in natural disaster management: case study earthquake at Tehran districts' level

VAZIRPOUR, Shabbou (1); REZAEI, Ali Akbar (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187

The role of pandemic plans in ethical preparedness and resilience VIENS, A.M. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187

Boosting agricultural production and stabilizing farmers' income through index insurance in Vietnam VINH, Dang The . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187

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“Embedded health systems analysis”: A framework for effective disaster mitigation & response WATSON, Samantha; RUDGE, James; COKER, Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

Flood risk management – creating efficiency by stakeholder involvement WEBLER, Heinrich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

Future epidemics of malaria: the potential of climate change induced malaria and its potential mitigation in Sri Lanka WEERESINGHE, Shayani . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

GRIP-CERAM Shanghai - a new model of capacity building WEN, Jiahong (1,2); VILLACIS, Carlos (3); YAN, Jianping (3); CHEN, Lei (1,2); YAN, Lijun (1,2); HUA, Zhenyang (1,2); YIN,

Zhane (1,2); GRASSO, Veronica (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189

Security research from an end user perspective WERNER, Heiko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189

Lessons from various microinsurance schemes and key success factors WILHELM, Mario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189

Flood risk management with limited data – case study Han River, China WILLI, Christian (1); ELSENER METZ, Juerg (1); MEYER, Walter (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189

The need of disaster loss data - assessment of droughts in global databases WIRTZ, Angelika; HENSELI, Marius . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

Interregional economic impact analysis of the Wenchuan earthquake, China WU, Jidong (1,2); LI, Ning (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

Risk communication and evacuation decision making: the case of residents in debris flow vulnerable area in Taiwan WU, Jie-Ying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

Estimating casualties in future earthquakes for preparedness: probabilistically or deterministically? WYSS, Max . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

Identifying landslides using binary logistic regression and landslide detection index techniques YANG, Wentao; WANG, Ming; SHI, Peijun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

A modern view to disaster management, concentrating on people with dynamic settlements (nomads) as a sustainable development standard

YAVAR, Bijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway network YE, Jiayuan (1); YANG, Saini (1); ZHANG, Xuechi (2); HE, Shuai (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192

Social cost benefit analysis: a way to optimize net economic benefits YEE, Chow Fah (1,2); TAN, Eu Chye (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192

Vulnerability assessment of cotton to hail in China based on historical records, field investigation and ground experiments

YUE, YaoJie (1,2); ZHAO, Jintao (3); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2,4); YIN, Yuanyuan (1,2); YE, Xinyue (5); HUANG, Xiaoyun (1,2) 192

Measuring performance functionality of roads after earthquake ZAMANIFAR, Milad (1); GIVEHCHI, Saeed (2); POORYARI, Maghsood (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193

Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: a governance point of view: case study Europe / Germany

ZENTEL, Karl-Otto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193

Continuing operations in a modern and efficient manner ZEPPOS, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193

Mapping the flood disaster risk of metropolitan region in the Yangtze River Delta of China ZHOU, Yin (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2,3); XU, Wei (3,4); ZHOU, Yao (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

Chronicling and mapping the physical and social components of the 2009 flood disaster and the disaster risk reduction initiatives of urban poor communities in Metro Manila, Philippines

ZOLETA-NANTES, Doracie Baldovino (1); MARTINEZ, Simeona (2); DE VERA, Rocelyn (3); CAPARAS, Paulo (4); GERONIA, Mart Cyrel (5); ILAGAN, Marie Joyce (6); TINGIN, Neil Eneri (7) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

Poster Presentations 197

An integrated approach to delineation of eco-climatic zones in Northern Nigeria ABDULKADIR, Aishetu (1); MUHAMMAD TSOWA, Usman (1); SHABA, Haliru Ayuba (2); SADAUKI, Abubakar (1) . . . . 198

Role of thematic resettlement as eco-village in Sri Lanka ABE, Miwa (1); SHAW, Rajib (2); TAKEUCHI, Yukiko (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

Impact of arsenic mitigation program on socioeconomic aspects of the beneficiaries AFRAD, Md. Safiul Islam; HOQUE, Md. Enamul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

Developing a comprehensive model for disaster resilient community AGHABABAEI, Muhammad Taghi (1); FARZAD BEHTASH, Muhamad Reza (1); SALEHI, Esmaeil (2); SARMADI, Hajar (3) 199

The appropriation of the nature and the social construction of the risk in Angangueo, Michoacán, Mexiko ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); ALARCÓN, Pablo (2); ORTIZ, Carlos (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

Land use planning for disaster reduction in Uruapan, Michoacán, México ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); BELTRAN, Jose (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

Engineering education and the need to address some challenges of the 21st century, in terms of training transformation ALLIA, Khedidja . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200

Development of a daily fire danger system ARPACI, Alexander Duran (1); GRIMMA, L.N. (1); FORMAYER, H. (1); LEIDINGER, D. (1); BECK, A. (2); GRUBER, C (2);

MÜLLER, M. (1); ALBERS, J. (1); VACIK, H. (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200

Fire risk and interactions with other natural hazards under the impact of climate change in Austria ARPACI, Alexander Duran (1); VACIK, H. (1); SASS, O. (2); SAILER, R. (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200

Preparation of school disaster safety plans and simulation BANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

Preparing and planning in disaster management BANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

Introducing auditing of elements and measures of natural crisis management processes as an efficient tool for developing corrective actions

BANIZAMANLARI, Farhad (1); POURYARI, Maghsoud (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

Impacts of climate change in geographically isolated areas: community perception from riverine islands of south-central and northern Bangladesh

BATEN, Mohammed Abdul (1,2); SEAL, Lubna (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202

Preventive family consultation with the approach of enhancing psychological resilience and its role in promoting post-disaster psychological preparedness and mental health

BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya (1,2); RAHATI, Ameneh (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202

Voluntary Community-Based Preventive Public Education(VCBPPE) before the disasters: a model to facilitate and expedite emergency treatment and improvement public health after disasters

BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya (1,2,3); RAHIMI GHASABEH, Saeid (4); RAHATI, Ameneh (5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202

Learning from crisis management exercises: a design science approach to exercise evaluation BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); TEHLER, Henrik (2,3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

Disaster management and linkages with climate change adaptation BHADRA, Manash Ronjan; KANAK, NNM Mujibuddaula Sardar Kanak; ISLAM, Rabiul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

The role of management information systems to response to crisis management BOZORGIMAKARANI, RezaAli (1); MAHRDADI, Naser (2); MOHAMMADI, Seyedabolfazl (3); BAVANDPORI, Behruz (4) 203

Insurance cover for natural disasters CHINNASWAMY, Kumar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204

Posttraumatic stress disorder and psychiatric co-morbidity following 2010 flood in Pakistan: the role of cognition distortion and suppression

CHUNG, Man Cheung (1); NASRULLAH, Muazzam (2); JALAL, Sabeena (3); KHAN, Najib Ullah (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204

Con

tent

s

90 91


Global design compliance and land issues challenges and regulatory barriers DE LA POMERAI, Garry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205

Seismic prediction and real time early warning make a perfect combination DE LA POMERAI, Garry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205

Assessing inter-agency capital response to terrorism: adaptive coordination DELGADO, Natalia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205

Measures of supply chain risk management DESPOTOV, Steffen (1); ZHANG, Li (1); FRIEDRICH, Hanno (2); BALSTER, Andreas (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206

Insurance literacy for micro insurance awareness DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206

Identification of critical infrastructures exposed to natural hazards: the main step towards the impact assessment on regional socio-economic systems

DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); LARI, Serena (2); BOUCHON, Sara (1); FRATTINI, Paolo (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206

Risk of ice shed from wind turbines DRAPALIK, Markus; FORMAYER, Herbert; POSPICHAL, Bernhard; KROMP, Wolfgang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

Best practices and new technologies in fire detection and suppression DREIBACH, Joachim Franz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

Gender and gender identity: the necessity of redefining ELMI, Mahmoud (1); PANAHI, Ali (1); BAGHERI ZNOZ, Baharak (2); HASHEMZADEH, Abolfazl (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

A Development Cooperation Erasmus Mundus Partnership for Capacity Building in Earthquake Mitigation Science and Higher Education

FAGGELLA, Marco (1); MONTI, Giorgio (1); BRAGA, Franco (1); GIGLIOTTI, Rosario (1); SPACONE, Enrico (2); LATERZA, Michelangelo (3); TRIANTAFILLOU, Thanasis (4); VARUM, Humberto (5); SAFI, Mohammad Dost (6,18); SUBEDI, Jishnu (7); DIXIT, Amod (8); LODI, Sarosh (9); RAHMAN, Zillur (10); LIMKATANYU, Suchart (11); XIAO, Yan (12); YINGMIN, Li (13); KUMAR, Hari (14); SALVATORE, Walter (15); CECCHINI, Alberto (16); LUKKUNAPRASIT, Panitan (17) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208

Institutional responses to coastal hazards: a comparative perspective FISCHHENDLER, Itay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208

IRGC concepts and tools for risk governance FLORIN, Marie-Valentine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

The influence of technology transfer management in improving the performance of risk management of natural disaster in rail transportation: a case study in Iran

GANJEHI, Sajad (1); NAJARI, Alireza (1); NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije (1); AHMADI, Babak (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

A seismic swarm: a social lab to promote earthquake preparedness GRANADO, Carolina; AGUILAR, Antonio; VASQUEZ, Raquel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

What do disasters teach us about economics? GREEN, Colin; VIAVATTENE, Christophe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

Consciousness and knowledge of disaster reduction helps reduction of earthquake disaster HE, Yongnian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

Ethics and risk in finance HEINEMANN, Simone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

GERIHCO - An interdisciplinary approach to understand the muddy floods risk (Alsace - France) HEITZ, Carine (1); GLATRON, Sandrine (2); ROZAN, Anne (1); AUZET, Anne Véronique (3); WINTZ, Maurice (4) . . . . . 210

Path selection model and algorithm for emergency evacuation during earthquake disaster HU, Fuyu; XU, Wei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

New approaches for integrated monitoring of slopes movements in mountain regions: the Interreg project "SloMove" IASIO, Christian (1); STRADA, Claudia (2); CHINELLATO, Giulia (1); MAIR, Volkmar (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

Educating preschool children on earthquakes using simulators IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

National efforts and the challenge of disaster in Nigeria JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

How to measure efficiency in risk prevention? JOHANSSON, Magnus (1,3); JALDELL, Henrik (2,3); ANDERSSON-SKÖLD, Yvonne (4); NYBERG, Lars (1);

BERGMAN, Ramona (4); PERSSON, Erik (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212

Precautionary evacuation operations using decision analysis: application to catastrophic flood event KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212

Inter-model influence diagram analysis using modular elicitation methods for evacuation decision-making KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212

Causes that make developing countries more vulnerable in disasters in the case of flooding KARIMI KIVI, Hamid; NAZARIHA, Mehrdad; ZAMANI, Elham; ROHOLLAHI, Mahboobeh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

Assessment effects of River Vegetation Density Index (RVDI) in recognition of damageable areas during torrents KAZEMZADEH, Mohammad Bagher; GHADBEIGI, Vahid; RADMEHR, Hamed; HEIDARI, Morteza;

NADERI PEYKAM, Mehdi; MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

Evaluation of natural period depending on the structure system KIM, Jin_Seon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

Empowerment of the community after a fire - residents' meeting as psycho-social intervention KORVENRANTA, Tiina (1); MANNINEN, Annika (2); SILVOLA, Sointu (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

Assessing direct damage and losses due to the disruption of production processes caused by natural hazards in Europe KREIBICH, Heidi; BUBECK, Philip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

Reinforced flexible systems for slope stabilization: an outstanding technology, fully proved in the Iberian area LAGUNA MEGAL, Luis Miguel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

Building resilience and reducing vulnerability through integrated risk management in mountain areas LALANI, Farrukh Salim; BROIMSHOEVA, Rukhshona . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

Community resilience - expanding grass roots approach to develop capacity and sustainability LOVE, Gavin John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215

Soil loss and dust release in farmland during extreme dust storms in China LU, Yanli (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215

Recent climate change in Iran – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina; ZARE, Ali; BAHRAMI, Hossein Ali; TAVAKOLI, Pourya; KHODABAKHSHI, Soudabeh . 215

Building organisational disaster resilience: lessons from Australian bushfire MARCH, Alan Peter; STURUP, Sophie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216

Preparedness arising from vulnerability and the value of resilience during the latest climate change episode in Zanzibar MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216

Reproducing the lakou: the role of vernacular settlement patterns in post-disaster temporary settlements MILLER, James Patrick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216

The effect of community trust in adopting protective measures in Tehran city MIRMOHAMMAD HOSSEINI, Kiandokht (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

Community empowerment for effective corporate supply chain logistics in the present economic crisis MITRA, Swati . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

Capacity building of school children- case study from India MITRA, Swati; BHANDARI, Mandeep . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

Lessons learned from massive damage assessment and reconstruction strategies in 2010 Haiti earthquake MIYAMOTO, Kit H.; GILANI, Amir S.J. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

Optimal selection of recovery strategies after earthquakes, considering interdependencies of infrastructures using dynamic Leontief Input-Output Model

MOGHIMI, Sanam; OMIDVAR, Babak; NAZARIHA, Mehrdad; MOUSAVI, S.Mostafa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218

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Disaster Management Bases Site Selection Using GIS in Tehran, Iran MOHAMMADI, Sakineh; NOROOZI, Belal; MOZAFARI, Abdollah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218

CDM, dam and disaster management of Climate Change MOHAMMADI, Seyed Abolfazl (1); AFSOUS, Mahmood (2); EBRAHIMZADEH, Hesam (3); HOUSHYANI, Bamshad (4) . 218

Caracas Seismological Museum: A space to develop an interactive experience between the community and the Venezuelan seismic culture.

MORENO, Daniel; GRIMAN, Cristobal; MARIN, Wilmer; GRANADO, Carolina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219

Preliminary analysis of the 1985 Mexican earthquake by applying the Management Oversight and Risk TreeALVARADO-CORONA, Rafael; SANTOS-REYES, Jaime; MOTA-HERNANDEZ, Dra. Cinthya Ivonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219

How to build a BCM Brand MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219

Time-varying beta risk of Turkish industry portfolios: a comparison of GARCH and Kalman filter modelling techniques NESLIHANOGLU, Serdar; MCCOLL, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

Gender stereotypes and disaster vulnerabilities NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna; PINCHA, Chaman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

Evaluating and improving the railway safety against flood NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije (1); MOHAMMADI, Bahram malek (2); GANJEHI, Sajad (1); BAVANDPOR, Behrooz (1); FALLAH,

Khalil (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

Amphibious houses and fiscal incentives: revitalizing local economies of flood-prone areas NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije (1); MOHAMMADI, Bahram malek (2); GANJEHI, Sajad (1); BAVANDPOR, Behrooz (1); FALLAH,

Khalil (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221

The importance of the cultural approach to relocate the survivors of mount Merapi : a case study of survivors of Glagaharjo Community

NUZULIA, Yorsi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221

Processual political methodology as a legitimate response to pluralism and uncertainty issues ORNAF, Julia (1); RAMBAUD, Alexandre (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221

Feasibility studies for optimum establishment of rural at risk of natural disasters PANAHI, Ali (1); ELMI, Mahmoud (1); TAJBAKHSHSHISHVAN, Shabnam (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222

Utilization plan of seismic acceleration monitoring data PARK, Ki Jong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222

The first specialized maneuver of water and wastewater industry of Tehran at earthquake crisis PARVARESH, Mohammd (1); REZA AHMAD NASAB, Mohammad (2); REZA SHARIF VAGHEFI, Hamid (3);

ABPARVAR, Ahamd (4); SHEYBANY, Farzam (5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222

Shalstab application to identify the susceptible areas of shallow landslides in Cunha River Watershed, Rio Dos Cedros City, SC, Brazil

PEREIRA REGINATTO, Gisele Marilha (1); MACCARINI, Marciano (1); KOBIYAMA, Masato (1); HIGASHI, Rafael Augusto dos Reis (1); GRANDO, Ângela (1); CORSEUIL, Cláudia Weber (2); LIMA CARAMEZ, Manolo (1); FEILSTRECKER, Lais Brandao (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greece PETSETI, Aglaia (1); NEKTARIOS, Milton (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

The tipping points of socioecological systems: Romans vs. Incas PLACHETKA, Uwe (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (1); KROMP-KOLB, Helga (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

Providing medical support to large scale public gatherings RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); CASPI, Guy (1); DEL ALAMO GIMENEZ, Alfonso (2); LATASCH, Leo (3); HOPMEIER, Michael (4)

223

Urban service monitoring system (UrSMS): reducing health risks through active monitoring in Surat, India RAJASEKAR, Umamaheshwaran; BHAT, Gopalakrishna; KARANTH, Anup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224

Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organizations ROUSSY, Sandrine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224

Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organization ROUSSY, Sandrine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225

Development of methodology for post-earthquake reconstruction planning of lifelines SABAGHZADEH, Hossein (1); ZAMANIFAR, Milad (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225

Natural disasters and climate change: safe school design and construction SALEH, Alida . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225

Reconstituting community in the aftermath of nuclear terrorism SCHOCH-SPANA, Monica Lynn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

Study of agricultural drought coping and ecological feedback - taking Hebei Province in North China as an example SHANG, Yanrui (1,2); SHEN, Haifeng (1,2); YANG, Jingpo (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

Multilayer disaster education through collaboration between a disaster education centre and a local university SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

Adapting the” Paho Hospital Safety Index” for hospitals in IranHABIBI, Kiomarth (2); SHIEH, Esmaeil (1); SKANDARI, Mohamad amin (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227

Evaluation of hospital vulnerability, three hospitals in Kerman-Iran.SHIEH, Esmaeil (1); HABIBI, Kiomarth (2); SKANDARI,Mohamad amin (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227

How specialised research fields of disaster management can be integrated? SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227

Monitoring of severe weather phenomena for the reduction of damage caused by them on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan

SMIRNOVA, Tatyana Yurevna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228

Comparative study of rural people’s attitudes towards risk in an earthquake-prone area: the case of rural high school students and head of households in Avaj County, Qazvin, Iran

SOLAIMANI, Roghaieh (1); BADRI, Seyed Ali (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228

Human preparedness and response to risk: a neuroscience perspective SULLIVAN, Helen T (1); HÄKKINEN, Markku T (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228

Features of sea ice disaster in the Bohai Sea in 2010 SUN, Shao (1,2,3); SHI, Peijun (1,2,4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

Geospatial pattern and trend in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh SYED, Md. Abu (1); AL AMIN, Mohammed (2); RAHMAN, A.K.M. Atiqur (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

Housing reconstruction policies and socio-spatial transformation of the built environment in old fabric of earthquake-affected cities

TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

New disaster mangement system in Turkey TETIK, Cigdem; OZENER, Suleman Kaan; GOKCE, Oktay; TUFEKCI, Mustafa Kemal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230

Reframing risk- and responsibility-sharing in flood risk management in England and Austria THALER, Thomas A.; VIAVATTENE, Christophe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230

State and social factors in global disasters: topological scope TRUFANOV, Andrey (1); TIKHOMIROV, Alexei (2); CARUSO, Antonio (3); RODYGYNA, Albina (1); ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra

(4); SHUBNIKOV, Evgeniy (5); UMEROV, Rustem (6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230

Integrated Flood Management in the context of climate change: case study Vietnam VAN STAVEREN, Martijn Floris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231

Use of crowdsourcing in post-disaster damage assessment VILLANUEVA HOLM-NIELSEN, Pablo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231

The seismic vulnerability base on macroeconomic indicators and risk evaluation in Asia WANG, Xiaoqing (1); YUAN, Xiaoxiang (1); DING, Xiang (1); LI, Zhi (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231

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A novel participatory sensing method for monitoring crowd conditions by collecting GPS location traces from pedestrians' mobile phones for real-time crowd management during city-scale mass gathering

WIRZ, Martin (1); FRANKE, Tobias (2); MITLETON-KELLY, Eve (3); ROGGEN, Daniel (1); LUKOWICZ, Paul (2); TRÖSTER, Gerhard (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232

The need for developing a culture of earthquake shelters to render early warning useful WYSS, Max . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232

Urban security based on IOT YAN, Lijun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232

Application of FMEA and HFMEA Techniques as Risk Assessment Tools for contingency Planning YARMOHAMMADIAN, Mohammad Hossein (1); ATIGHECHIAN, Golrokh (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233

SoTech Risks an important context to be taken into consideration YAVAR, Bijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233

Progress and new initiatives in IRG project/IHDP YE, Qian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233

Rural areas in Turkey and their reasons being vulnerable YILMAZ, Didem Gunes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234

Research on region regularity of disaster chains in Gansu Province China YU, Han (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2,3); SHI, Qinqing (2,4); YIN, Yuanyuan (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234

Investigating weather parameters affecting snow avalanching in Alborz Mountains, Iran. ZARE BIDAKI, Rafat (1); LEHNING, Micheal (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234

Session & Workshops 237

Special Swiss Re session on financial tools for disaster risk management BAUR, Esther . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238

The evaluation of UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme – Analyzing the results and findings of a forward looking evaluation process

BUHNE, Neil (1); OSUNA MILLÁN, José Guadalupe (2); GHESQUIERE, Francis (3); WIRTZ, Angelika (4); STOESSEL, Franz (5); VANDYCK, Rafael (6); LEON, Esteban (7); VILLACIS, Carlos (8); REGO, Loy (9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238

Tackling risk in agriculture CASTLE, Paul; ZHOU, Yuan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238

Strengthening resilience in the context of learning and transformation CLOT, Nicole (1); STOLZ, Nicole (2); JOEHR, Anton (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

The evolution of seismic ‘real time’ early warning and ‘reliable’ seismic prediction’ science DE LA POMERAI, Garry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240

Integrated risk assessment: what kind of multi-risk analysis to support the risk reduction decision-making process? DIMAURO, Carmelo; BOUCHON, Sara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240

Global exposure monitoring for multi-hazards risk assessments DOLCE, Mauro (1); EHRLICH, Daniele (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241

Social media and linguistics as part of an integrative risk management EGGENBERGER, René (1); SCHANNE, Michael (2); ESMAIL, Zarah (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241

Elsevier Author Workshop – How to write a scientific paper… and get it published EVE, Katherine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242

Mobilising the creation of a risk governance culture FLORIN, Marie-Valentine (1); RENN, Ortwin (2); SCHRECKENBERG, Stephan (3); MOLIN-VALDES, Helena (4); PRIOR, Tim (5)

242

European critical infrastructures: which analysis framework for supporting effective decision making? GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios; FILIPPINI, Roberto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243

Education for disaster risk reduction

HEISS, Julia (1); SIMONIAN, Guillaume (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244

“Taking preparedness seriously” – Revisiting the gaps and challenges in linking early warning and timely response between community and government levels

HUPPERTZ, Stephan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245

Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: a governance point of view INNOCENTI, Demetrio (1); PLA, Francesc (2); ZENTEL, Karl-Otto (3); MYSIAK, Jaroslav (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246

Increasing disaster resilience through participative development of standards in land management, urban planning and construction

KATARIA, Shailesh (1); JOHNSON, Cassidy (2); MURRAY-JONES, Douglas (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246

Natech risk reduction after the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (1); CRUZ, Ana Maria (2); TATANO, Hirokazu (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247

Challenges and opportunities in building a resilient city KUNDAK, Seda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

Resilient development practice – from fragmentation towards integration; from theory into action LATHAM, Stephen J. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

Collectors, coordinators and directors - innovation in the management of disasters LOVE, Gavin John (1); MIYAMOTO, Kit (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

Financing the green transformation: opportunities and challenges ahead MANGALAGIU, Diana (1); YE, Qian (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

Progress and new initiatives in IRG Project/IHDP MANGALAGIU, Diana (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250

The future of alerting the public – discussion of human behavior, information expectations and technology use in an intercultural context

MEISSEN, Ulrich (1); DRESSEL, Kerstin (2); KLAFFT, Michael (1,3); PÁRRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250

Water security: responses to local, regional, and global challenges MISHRA, Anil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251

A converging vision of resilience building between the private sector and civil society MITCHELL, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251

Understanding your risk environment MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252

Towards a safer world: a whole-of-society approach to dsaster preparedness NABARRO, David; WANNOUS, Chadia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253

Disaster risk reduction in the Hindu Kush – Himalayan Region NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253

ESS project – technical and conceptual challenges RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); HAZZANI, Gideon (2); MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien (3); HERRERO, Jose (4); RIVAS, Pablo (4);

EFTYCHIDIS, George (5). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254

Mass casualty incidents – lessons learned RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); LATASCH, Leo (2); CASPI, Guy (1); LEIS, Carmen (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255

Same problem – different solutions RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); LATASCH, Leo (2); LEIS, Carmen (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255

Improved Risk information to support sound policy/decision making processes – The UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme, GRIP’s experience

SCHEUER, Jo (1); VILLACIS, Carlos (2); OSUNA MILLÁN, José Guadalupe (3); BELOW, Regina (4); WEN, Jiahong (5); DIXIT, Amod (6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256

Special Swiss Re session on economics of disasters – costs and financing mechanisms SCHNARWILER, Reto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256

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Natura hazard resilient cities SERRE, Damien (1); LAGANIER, Richard (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257

Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world SHI, Peijun (1); JAEGER, Carlo (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257

Recent and future developments in EU security research. From a counter-terrorism focus towards a wider support for natural and accidental large scale crisis or disasters.

SIMONART, Tristan (1); AMBS, Peter (2); ALEXANDER, David (3); WERNER, Heiko (4); GRAN, Hans-Christian (5); ALKHUDHAIRY, Delilah (6); RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (7) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257

Ubiquitous technology to facilitate preparedness, practice, and situational awareness before, during, and after disasters SULLIVAN, Helen T (1); HÄKKINEN, Markku T (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258

The benefits of standardisation in reducing seismic risk TAUCER, Fabio Federico; PINTO, Artur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258

Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction: Moving from Theory to Practice THUMMARUKUDY, Muralee (1); ESTRELLA, Marisol (1); BOE, Kaia (2); MURTI, Radhika (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259

Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness - PART 1

TSCHURR, Simon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259

Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness - PART 2

TSCHURR, Simon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260

Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management VILLACIS, Carlos; YAN, Jianping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260

Public empowerment policies for crisis management VOS, Marita (1); HYVÄRINEN, Jenni (1); STAL, Marc (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261

Swiss early warning system for natural hazards WERNER, Christoph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261

Capacity Building for Social-Ecological Resilience WILLIAMS, James Herbert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262

“Making the connection” – practical experiences on linking disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and ecosystem management

WUTTGE, Eva Maria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262

Models and modeling to assist capacity building for coping with very large-scale disasters YE, Qian; WANG, Ming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263

Rio+20 and the future of sustainability and disaster risk reduction ZENTEL, Karl-OTTO (1); RECHKEMMER, Andreas (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263

Author Index 265

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[email protected] Risk and vulnerability assessments (RVA) are vital components of the work conducted by public agencies at different levels, as part of the processes for governing and managing risks in the society. In Sweden, public agencies at all levels are required by legislation to perform risk and vulnerability assessments within their respective area of responsibility. The present paper presents a study of how Swedish municipalities, county administration boards and national authorities work with RVAs, with a special focus on three aspects of such assessments that are highlighted in the legislation: vital societal functions, critical dependencies, and capability assessment. The main data collection technique was semi-structured interviews and a total of 25 actors were included and interviewed. The goal was to achieve a good representation of the different actors that perform RVAs. Thus 5 national authorities, 5 county administration boards, and 15 municipalities were chosen in order to obtain a representative functional distribution (in terms of national authorities responsible for different sectors), geographic distribution as well as size distribution. In addition, risk and vulnerability assessments produced by the interviewed actors over the last five years have been analyzed in order to complement the data from the interviews. The study shows that there is rather large variety of approaches, perspectives and views adopted by different actors, all with different advantages and drawbacks. It is argued that the findings of the study can be used to improve the RVA-practices of public authorities. Keywords: Risk and Vulnerability Analysis, Vital societal functions, Critical dependencies, Capability assessments Building community resilience by integrating disaster risk reduction and health system strengthening AEBISCHER, Christina; JOEHR, Anton Swiss Red Cross, Switzerland Presenting author: AEBISCHER, Christina [email protected] Honduran and Swiss Red Cross started relief and reconstruction programs after hurricane Mitch in 1998, applying a community based approach to strengthen local capacities and focusing on two rural areas covering 200 most vulnerable communities (60’000 people) in 6 municipalities marked by absence of health care services and disaster management and highly exposed to natural hazards. The integrated approach is implemented at household, community and authorities’ level, interlinking risk mitigation and disaster preparedness, public health, education and territorial management. A core strategy lies in strengthening capacities by organization, training and equipment of local committees, linked to and recognized by relevant authorities. Local risk assessments are combined with scientific risk analysis and provide planning instruments for local committees, local and regional authorities and Red Cross programs. Community based capacity strengthening leads to knowledgeable and healthier communities which are able to monitor and manage their risks and improve coping mechanisms. Traditional knowledge combined with scientific analysis improves communities’ ability to adapt to new or changing risks appearing under the climate change impact. The local committees are recognized by and linked to the regional and national systems (health and DM) providing them access to external services and resources. Infrastructure measures do not only mitigate local risks but are an important

Mainstreaming Pandemic Preparedness into Multi-Hazard Readiness ABDULLAH (TBC), Amir World Food Program, Italy Presenting author: ABDULLAH (TBC), Amir [email protected] Validation of disaster response mechanisms through pandemic preparedness and response exercises at country and regional levels. Safe water adaptability index for salinity, arsenic and drought risk in south-west of Bangladesh ABEDIN, Md. Anwarul; SHAW, Rajib Kyoto University, Japan Presenting author: ABEDIN, Md. Anwarul [email protected] In 21st century, availability of safe drinking water is the most challenging problem for the world. The present water resource of world is like Coleridge’s novel’s condition of actor “water; water everywhere, but there no drop to drink”. Some of the countries in the world have severe water scarcity, but this type of worst scenario is also observed in southwest part of Bangladesh. Though, it is claimed that 16 percent of world’s safe water are in Bangladesh, but especially, southwest part of Bangladesh suffers scarcity of pure drinking water due to groundwater arsenic along with salinity intrusion and drought. To overcome the crisis of safe drinking water of this region, different international organizations, GO, NGOs, private sectors and community people are trying to cope with this. Most of them have paid their attention as single issue rather than combined. However, the problem of safe water scarcity arises through salinity, arsenic and drought that are intimately inter-linked with each other. Therefore, it is urgent to include all the issues by developing an integrated approach which will help to find a successful solution for accessing safe drinking water in the affected area. Hence, this study developed a holistic approach named “SIPE” to determine safe water adaptability index and applied it at 16 sub-districts (upazila) of Khulna and Satkhira districts in southwestern Bangladesh. It helps to measure existing level of different physico-chemical, socio-economic, environmental and institutional conditions of the targeted area and provides an overview of safe water adaptability index. Using SIPE approach, the results highlight that institutional dimension of 16 upazila has higher safe water adaptability index compare to physiochemical, socio-economic and environmental dimension. This study further tries to link this approach into policy level which facilitates to adapt and practice it through national level to local level in a sustainable way. Keywords: Safe water adaptability index, Salinity, Arsenic, Drought, Bangladesh A study of the performance of risk and vulnerability assessments by Swedish Public Agencies ABRAHAMSSON, Marcus (1,2); ERIKSSON, Kerstin (1,2); HASSEL, Henrik (1,2); PETERSEN, Kurt (1,2); TEHLER, Henrik (1,2) 1: Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management, Sweden; 2: Department of Fire Safety Engineering and Systems Safety, Lund University, Sweden Presenting author: PETERSEN, Kurt

Joint Research Centre, is engaged in research activities that are contributing to enhancing the capability of the EU and its partners in disaster resilience, anticipation and response. These research activities are underpinned by the recently inaugurated European Crisis Management Laboratory, ECML, which serves as a R&D testing and validation facility for ICT focused solutions, integrating devices, applications, and crisis management related information sources to support crisis management needs including threats analysis, situational awareness, early warning and collaborative decision making. The ECML supports tests in a range of crisis scenarios, from intentional threats and natural disasters to health crises. Visual analytics for improving information analysis and visualisation in large video screen environments form an integral part of the Laboratory’s R&D programme. One of the Laboratory’s core goals is to build cooperation with European research facilities, industry, users in governmental organisations and others to establish a network of Pan - European research and testing facilities focusing on ICT for crisis management. One of the expected achievements of the network is a contribution to addressing gaps in standards for data, threat assessments, early warning and organisational interoperability as well as guidelines and criteria for experimental design and technology benchmarking. Building a safe municipality Morelia, Michoacàn, Méxiko ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); NOCCETI, Manuel (2); DÍAZ, Rogelio (2) 1: Institute for Research on Risk Management. INIGER .Morelia,México; 2: The Municipality of Morelia, Michoacán. Presenting author: ALARCÓN, Patricia [email protected] Physiographically the municipality of Morelia, Michoacán, México is located in the south central axis of the neovolcanic zone, creating the presence of different geological and hidrometeorological hazards. In this paper will be presented the results of public policies, which were generated from the incorporation of the risk management process as a core element in the planning of development for the municipality of Morelia. The first section refers to the methodologies, models and procedures for the evaluation of threats and vulnerabilities and risk maps. The second part provides a summary from the analysis of indicators of risk management according to the criteria of the (BID), evaluated at the municipal level. And in the last section, is presented a summary of public policy development to contribute to the construction of a safe municipality Keywords: Hazards, indicators of risk, land use, earthquake,landslide,floods How to motivate private sector participants to invest in mitigating and adapting to systemic risks ALDRICH, Stephen C. bio-era, United States of America Presenting author: ALDRICH, Stephen C. [email protected] Fundamental to effective global preparedness and response to systemic threats is a highly motivated private sector. But what motivates private actors to take a systemic risk seriously, and once engaged, how can private sector strengths

part of the capacity strengthening process as the community participates fully in planning, fund raising, implementation and maintenance. The integration of health and disaster risk reduction improves the knowledge about the environmental health – healthy environment circle, leading to better management of natural resources and assets. Integrating community based DRR and health system strengthening can contribute to strengthening resilience of local communities. The approach shows a high potential for scaling up and enlarged multi-sector and multi-stakeholder strategies. Building national pandemic preparedness through strengthening non health sectors: Indonesia’s lesson learnt) AGUSTIONO, Emil Coordinating Ministry for People's Welfare, Indonesia, Republic of Presenting author: AGUSTIONO, Emil [email protected] All over the word, especially in developing countries, both population growth and economic growth exert considerable pressure on the natural resources of a system. Therefore, high urbanization rate, especially around the cities, is considered as a potential flood risk if enhanced economic activities such as the construction of buildings and infrastructure are concentrated in floodplains. However, Because of the inappropriate utilization of water resources, soil and vegetation and together with unplanned cities development, these areas become more vulnerable to floods. Paying attention to prevention phase can play a determinant role in reducing flood risks. Applying a series of instructions for building reinforcement and flood management in urban areas can dramatically reduce floods effect.

By studying crisis management systems in developing countries in the past floods, this article attempts to express how floods may be intensified by urbanism. Nevertheless, one can come up with a set of solutions such as flood warning systems; retrofitting of lifelines. In addition, continuous monitoring of hazards sources such as rivers and dams may be used to reduce losses and casualties in urban areas. Obviously, using the research findings can improve flood management in urban areas. Crisis Management: Needs, Gaps and Opportunities AL KHUDAIRY, delilah Helen European Commission, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: AL KHUDAIRY, delilah Helen [email protected] The number of disaster events is trending up. The first half of 2011 already produced more disasters than most years before 2006. In 2011, weather accounted for about 90% of the 820 recorded natural disasters, which included floods, tornadoes and storms. This increasing trend adds a strain on practitioners engaged in emergency preparedness and response. Decision-makers and practitioners need trusted, reliable and sustainable information and tools that they can easily integrate in their operational workflow to help them to be better prepared for recognizing emerging threats and for responding to them in a timelier manner.

The European Commission’s in-house science service, the

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current legal, institutional, and ‎organizational arrangements, the status of community participation in flood management with ‎particular reference to information on flood forecasting and warning, risk management, coping ‎practices of the community and assistance provided by government. This kind of investigation ‎would enable planners and policymakers to evolve a strategy to solve similar problems ‎elsewhere. The results obtained could be useful about the decision makers, risk analysts and ‎safety measures in the future similar situations.‎ Keywords: flood risk FASTID project - FAST and efficient international disaster victim IDentification AMBS, Peter INTERPOL, France Presenting author: AMBS, Peter [email protected] The FAST and efficient international disaster victim IDentification (FASTID) Project was launched on 1 April 2010 with an overall budget of almost EUR 3 million, co-funded by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) – Theme no. 10 Security. The project will establish an international system to manage enquiries concerning missing persons and unidentified bodies in the event of disasters as well as day-to-day policing. With its approach the project is under way to create the first ever police database to identify and link missing persons and unidentified bodies on an international level.

The MPUB database at INTERPOL's General Secretariat in Lyon will have decentralized access for use in conjunction with disasters and everyday policing.

It will be based on INTERPOL’s Ante-Mortem (AM) Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) and Post-Mortem (PM) DVI forms together with Yellow Notice (missing persons) and Black Notice (unidentified bodies) forms. Currently accepted minimum international standards for the collection of data to identify victims and software will serve as a starting point, while rich Internet application methods and additional identification techniques will enhance the system. The database will include its own search capabilities for some identifiers and will interface with other databases for others, for example, fingerprints, DNA. It will be accessible to INTERPOL National Central Bureaus and DVI teams via INTERPOL’s I-24/7 and https (secured Internet) communication systems. It will be integrated and synchronized with INTERPOL’s I-link in order to ensure coherent and consistent data in both systems.

2012-2025 roadmap of I.R.Iran's Health Disaster Management ARDALAN, Ali (1); RAJAEI, Mohammad Hossein (1); MASOOMI, Gholamreza (2); AZIN, Seyed Ali (3); ZONOOBI, Vahid (2); SARVAR, Mohammad (2); VASKOUIE, Khorshid (2); AHMADNEZHAD, Elham (1); JAFARI, Gelareh (1) 1: I.R Iran National Institute of Health Research, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: I.R Iran Ministry of Health; 3: Iranian Institute for

and abilities best be integrated with public sector efforts? Recent history demonstrates that the key to catalyzing significant private sector investment toward mitigating or responding in advance of a systemic threat is private-sector education on the economic costs and consequences of failing to do so. This presentation will show how governmental and non-governmental authorities can leverage their position as highly-credible authorities regarding a variety of systemic threats (i.e., climate change, infectious disease, bioterrorism, etc.) to engage the private sector in ways that will effectively mobilize pre-disaster investment. This will require building more effective communication partnerships for explaining the economic consequences of inaction that leverage public and private sector strengths, while mutually benefitting both private and public sector actors. For example, the private sector has acknowledged the importance of communication from public health agencies around infectious disease threats. Companies rely heavily on the information and guidance from public health agencies to communicate with their employees and other stakeholders. Public health agencies such as WHO and the US CDC are seen as highly credible, trusted sources on public health threats and what to do about them. Though these and other agencies do an outstanding job in this role, the tangible value they provide in doing so is not always recognized by the private sector or other sectors of society. Likewise, when private companies have potential solutions to emerging disease threats, their motives often are called into question. This presentation will suggest specific ways the private and public sectors might help each other better identify and communicate the significance of emerging systemic threats. management of flood risks at the city of Tabuk AL-MOMANI, Ayman Hassan University of Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of Presenting author: AL-MOMANI, Ayman Hassan [email protected] study discusses the assessment and management of flood risks at the city of Tabuk, ‎initiatives taken by the government to mitigate the damages, the successes and failures of ‎these initiatives, and the most recent developments in disaster risk management towards saver ‎city. In this respect, GIS, digital elevation model (DEM), aerial photographs and aeromagnetic ‎data sets used as a helpful tool of data analysis.‎

A great benefit of the method applied in this paper is the possibility of conducting subsequent ‎analyses with GIS, when incorporation of integrated workflow across the governmental ‎agencies for creating, enhancing, and updating GIS databases that can be easily shared both ‎within and between organizations. This allows planners and citizens to quickly and efficiently ‎create and test alternative development scenarios and determine their likely impacts on land ‎use patterns and associated population and employment trends, thus allowing public officials to ‎make informed planning decisions.‎

This shows the compelling need to increase the municipality’s resilience against flooding ‎through adoption a non-structural disaster reduction schemes to supplement existing efforts. ‎The other important output of this study is to document the

and risks in the structure, such as missing capacities for enrichment and fuel fabrication and furthermore show where further investments in the infrastructure are needed in order to support the nuclear growth.The work targets towards illustrating and connecting the network of the fuel cycle. It covers uranium mining, milling, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication and fuel distribution to the operators and plants and also discuss the role of reprocessing in that matter. Taking into account that a strong trend towards the expansion of nuclear energy prevails especially in Asia, there will thus be a shift in the priorities of the nuclear industry to this region. It was found that not enough current or planned capacity is developed to support the rapid growth in this region.The conference contribution shall draw a comprehensive picture fuel supply network and encourage in-depth discussion on reducing future supply risks. Keywords: nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear energy, supply risks Risk concept for natural hazards on motorway in Switzerland ARNOLD, Philippe FEDRO, Switzerland Presenting author: ARNOLD, Philippe [email protected] The Swiss Federal Roads Office (FEDRO) has initiated a programme to analyse, assess and manage the risks associated with gravity induced natural hazards (rockfalls, landslides, avalanches, as well as floods and debris flows) on the motorway network in Switzerland. In a first step, the methodological background was developed in order to guarantee transparent and standardised hazard and risk assessment, as well as cost-efficient and cost effective management of the identified risks. Based on this methodology, the entire motorway network is now being assessed The hazard analysis assesses natural hazards in terms of their probability and extent. The methodology ensures that the scenarios are defined on the basis of uniform and transparent criteria. This is based on an evaluation of historical events, an examination of statistical data, the incorporation of indicators in the field, an assessment of predisposition in the area and an assessment of existing protective measures and the protection provided by forest. Based on the hazard formation the affected areas are filtered out and represented in the form of intensity maps.All risks are converted into a monetary value.The risk assessment examines whether the identified risks are acceptable or not. Furthermore, the methodology shows which criteria are used as a basis for setting priorities for planning measures. Processes and criteria are defined that make it possible to scrutinise measures and combinations of measures that minimise risks in terms of costs and benefits.

The first stretches of motorway have meanwhile been assessed. In each case the findings obtained on site were documented on phenomenon maps and the impacts on the respective motorway stretches were presented in the form of intensity maps. The findings are very positive, but they also shed light on certain specific characteristics of motorway network analyses. Keywords: analyse, asses, examine, manage and converte into a monetary value

Health Sciences Research Presenting author: RAJAEI, Mohammad Hossein [email protected] Along with the Iran’s Comprehensive Health Sector Road Map, the National Institute of Health Research at the Tehran University of Medical Sciences developed the 2012-2025 road map of Health Disaster Management (HDM), including goals and objectives, strategies and action priorities and related prerequisites. This article presents process and results of this road mapping project. The project started with an expanded literature review followed by stakeholder analysis to assess level of interest and impact of related organizations to HDM, STEEP.V methodology to define determinants with a potential impact on Iran’s HDM for duration of 2012 to 2025, SWOT analysis, formulation of goals and objectives and related strategies and priority actions and prerequisites. Brain storming, group discussion and interview with key informants were used for data collection, nominal group technique was used whenever prioritization was necessary and Delphi panel was applied for consensus development. STEEP.V analysis revealed the most important determinants in terms of social, technological, environmental, economical, political and value-based. Iran’s HDM mission and vision were defined respectively as “mitigation from, preparedness for, response to and recovery from consequences of natural and man-made hazards at the community and health facilities and resources of I.R.Iran” and “In 2025, Iran’s HDM will be the most developed system in the region compromising the least vulnerability, the highest readiness in health facilities and resources and the highest and most effective contribution in disaster resilience of Iranian community”, respectively. Sixteen strategies and priority programs prerequisites actions were developed. This was the first attempt of comprehensive strategic planning in the field of HDM in Iran. The current framework provides Iran’s health system with a list of clear strategies and priority programs to be considered in operational planning and actions. It, however, requires a dynamic process of evaluation and revision to ensure meeting Iran’s health system goals in 2025. Keywords: Disaster Health Management, Risk Management, Prevention, Disaster Response, Disaster Management Framework Fuel cycle risks imposed by a nuclear growth scenario ARNOLD, Nikolaus; GUFLER, Klaus; SHOLLY, Steven C. University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, Republic of Presenting author: ARNOLD, Nikolaus [email protected] To fight climate change and meet future energy demand, new investments in nuclear energy are proposed by several institutions (IEA, IAEA). Even in a post-Fukushima world a constant growth of nuclear energy share can be expected, at least in the developing economies of Asia.Due to the nature of nuclear energy of binding large resources and covering long time spans, it seems of high interest to have an in depth look at the front- and (back)end developing around a growing nuclear energy share.At the Institute of Security - and Risk Sciences work is currently carried out, to outline the actual structure of the nuclear fuel cycle and a comparison with the near-term needs and further with long-term needs shall be performed. Having a look at the fuel cycle as a whole, can identify potential bottlenecks

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Critical infrastructure vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reduction BACH, Claudia United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: BACH, Claudia [email protected] Critical infrastructures (CI) and particularly electricity supply build the backbone of modern societies. Infrastructures such as information and communication technology, water supply, or transport today are so interconnected that the failure of one of them could lead to cascading effects into a variety of sectors. Natural hazards thereby pose a threat to the maintenance of these services. This is especially relevant, as infrastructure services are particularly needed during and in the aftermath of a disaster in order to decrease the direct effects of the event on population and environment. It is thus important to understand the vulnerability of critical infrastructures towards different natural hazards (slow and sudden onset) which can have very different effects on the systems considered. Whereas sudden onset hazards have a devastating effect on the system components and destroy them physically, slow onset hazards such as heat waves and droughts rather affect processes. Regarding electricity supply, the 2003 European heat wave showed that mainly energy generation was restricted due to several reasons including shortages in coal deliveries as well as a lack of water availability for the cooling of power stations. Relating to this, the presentation will give an insight into quantitative, indicator based as well as on qualitative vulnerability assessment methods towards critical infrastructure for slow and sudden onset hazards using the example of flash floods and heat waves/dry spells. Methodologies were derived in cooperation with the German cities Wuppertal and Karlsruhe and encompass the vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructure systems themselves (primary effects) as well as society’s vulnerability in case of a failure (secondary effects) of the mentioned hazards. Keywords: Critical infrastructure, vulnerability assessment, slow and sudden onset hazards, qualitative and quantitative methods Early warning and the human factor - people-centered warning systems and awareness are key BARTHELT, Christian H.; LOSTER, Thomas R. Munich Re Foundation, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: BARTHELT, Christian H. [email protected] Recent decades have seen a significant increase in the number of natural catastrophes with devastating consequences. Warning systems have always played a key role in preventing or minimising losses. Since the tsunami of December 2004, which caused over 220,000 deaths in Asia and Africa, effective early warning has become an increasingly important factor in disaster prevention. The USA has excellent early-warning systems, however, in 2005 Hurricane Katrina claimed the lives of more than 1,300 people in one of the richest countries in the world. When Hurricane Irene threatened the US East-Coast in 2011, the authorities reacted immediately. No lives were claimed but losses occurred. Japan has excellent systems, too. Despite this fact, the complex catastrophic event in Fukushima overcharged the existing disaster risk management. The correct estimation of risk-magnitude

Enabling small businesses to develop their business continuity plan: York University business continuity planning toolkit for small businesses ASGARY, Ali; KONG, Albert York University, Canada Presenting author: ASGARY, Ali [email protected] Most of the disaster and emergency management research and practice has been on individuals, families, communities and countries emergency management systems and capacities. Little attention has been paid to businesses, particularly small businesses. Community's survival very much depends on the ability of businesses to minimize risk and damage by anticipating the worst. Research show that small businesses are more vulnerable to disasters and emergencies and when impacted by disasters considerable number of them never reopen. It is while, that a simple but well thought business continuity plan can enhance businesses resiliency and capacity.

Recent studies show that the lack of financial and human resources account for the absence of preparedness and business continuity planning by small businesses. In order to help small businesses develop their business continuity plan without additional costs and resources, we are developing a web based business continuity planning toolkit (York University Business Continuity Planning Toolkit -YUBCPT) that can be used by small businesses in Canada. It follows the existing standards in business continuity (Z1600, and BS25999). This toolkit not only teaches small businesses how to create their business continuity plans, but also helps them create their plan as they learn. Keywords: Business Continuity Planning, Small Businesses, Canada, Toolkit, YUBCPT The planning and implementation of earthquake scenario in megacities AZIZI, Amir; BAGHBANNEZHAD, Abolghassem Municipality of Mashhad, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: AZIZI, Amir [email protected] The rise in the number, magnitude and the rate of damage caused by earthquakes in recent years and decades at the national and universal level is due to various factors. However, the most significant of these factors are population explosion, change in the use of land, development of residential areas and not being prepared for these disasters. In the process of the comprehensive crisis management, preparedness and prevention are vital in reducing earthquake–related damage. The role of awareness, training and rehearsing is vital before a disaster occurs. In Mashhad, a megacity with a population of 3.000.000 and over 20.000.000 passengers and pilgrims per year, for the first time at the national level, a real earthquake scenario was designed and implemented at great length in the presence of over 5000 forces, 500 pieces of machinery and 2 helicopters. The results of the above mentioned assessed by experts in crisis management indicates a 96.5% success in this regard. This article focuses on analyzing the scenario in question and its applicability to other megacities in the world, by presenting the manner in which it was implemented in Mashhad. Keywords: Disaster Management, Earthquake, Megacities

Maximise your returns in crisis management preparedness: a cyclic approach to training and exercises BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); ABRAHAM, Philip (3); BRAAKHEKKE, Erie (1,4) 1: Netherlands Institute for Safety (NIFV) – Research Department (The Netherlands); 2: Lund University – Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management (LUCRAM) (Sweden); 3: Frontline Training Associates (United Kingdom); 4: Police academy of the Netherlands (The Netherlands) Presenting author: BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna [email protected] In order to provide an effective response to a crisis, preparedness is key. Considerable resources are applied to developing crisis management and response capabilities. In many cases this investment is not being used effectively, with potential gains in efficiency and effectiveness not being realized. This can be averted by instituting a well structured and cyclic training and exercise programme including evaluation and review. This will ensure that the training itself and individuals, teams and methodologies meet the required standards and provide an effective return to the organisation and communities. Training and exercise programmes are not independent activities, they form part of a larger, risk-based, process of disaster management preparedness. In order to have an impact on an individual’s skills, knowledge or behaviours or organizational learning, or the design of procedures and teams, the programmes need a cyclic and holistic approach as well as clearly identified outcomes that focus on identified gaps and emerging threats. This will support meaningful evaluation against clear indicators. Without having clear outcomes, standards or values, it is not possible to evaluate a programme’s effectiveness. These outcomes form measurable performance indicators around which a detailed programme can be designed. Following delivery, the evaluation observations are analysed to identify critical gaps in knowledge, behaviour or policy. This analysis allows clear, structured recommendations to be formulated that will provide guidance as to the content of the continuing training programme cycle, prioritising key needs and ensuring maximum efficiency and utilisation of resources, at all levels. By analysing and comparing various European exercises and their outcomes we can demonstrate the advantages of this approach. We end this paper with recommendations that would potentially increase the learning outcomes in any future training or exercise programme. Keywords: Cyclic, Training, Exercises, Preparedness, Evaluation Dynamic potential in disaster exercises: identifcation – development – evaluation BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); KALTENBRUNNER, Katharina Anna (3) 1: Netherlands Institute for Safety (NIFV) – Research Department (The Netherlands); 2: Lund University – Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management (LUCRAM) (Sweden); 3: Department of Social and Business Sciences, Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS) (Austria) Presenting author: KALTENBRUNNER, Katharina Anna [email protected] Due to the increasing dissolution of boundaries, dynamic changes and the severity of natural disasters, international disaster-exercises gain ever increasing importance in cross-country disaster management. Only this way can a fundamental basis for a target-oriented use of tangible or

and preparedness for very complex risk accumulations are important. In 2009 a tsunami claimed over 170 lives in Samoa and American Samoa. The Kingdom of Tonga also was affected, despite a computer-based early warning system being in place. The system was technically working, however, the triggering quake occurred before staff had arrived at the radio and television stations and other public facilities that normally issue alerts. People-centered systems shaped according to the needs and capabilities of people at risk are key for improving integrated risk management. This can be seen along rivers in central Mozambique, where SIDPABB, a simple but effective warning system is in place. The system worked successfully several times (2007, 2008 and 2010) during severe floods. Keywords: Natural disasters, disaster risk reduction, early warning systems, people-centered approaches Heterogeneous Structural Development in megacities in Iran; a Factor hindering optimal performance of rescue forces in crisis response phase BATHAEE, Reza (1); Hossein TEIMOORI1: INDM Conference (Founder) Iran; 2: Master in Technology Management Presenting author: BATHAEE, Reza [email protected] The 50-year profile of Tehran and other cities in Iran, portraits cities with relatively low-rise, earthquake-prone buildings with neighborhoods in the city center interconnected by quite narrow alleys and streets. At the same time in most small towns, we can observe neighborhoods with low-rise buildings with yards, interconnected by narrow streets. In the past fifty years the relief experience in those cities in Iran hit by earthquake has shown that during large scale earthquakes in small towns (such as Tabas 1979, Rudbar 1990 and Bam 2003) most buildings had been razed, but owing to the small height of buildings, it was possible to remove the rubbles and open up connection routes (streets and alleys) with basic equipment while professional rescue teams and ordinary people were also capable of removing rubbles and search for the victims.With the expansion of Tehran and most Iranian megacities over the last forty years, for a variety of reasons, including rural to urban migration, increasing urban population, the urban planning patterns of Tehran and other major cities have been altered and instead of low-rise buildings with courtyards, high-rise apartment buildings are built, without fundamental improvements in widening alleys and streets. Poor quality construction materials, lack of building codes, inefficient supervision over Building Code 2800, construction of high-rise construction vulnerable to earthquakes in narrow routes, lack of access to specific equipment (large cranes, loaders and trucks) to open up the congested streets and collapsed bridges, are only a few parameters impeding the performance of relief groups participating in rescue operation during disaster response phase. This paper aims to identify markers of various urban links (Core/old Zone, Semi-old Zone and New Zone) and provide appropriate solutions for optimal performance of relief and rescue forces based on the requirements of response phase. Keywords: Urban planning, earthquake, rescue, rubbles removal

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the disaster in all its facets. Often, the analysis requires the simultaneous application of several scientific disciplines. The Integrated Research on Disaster Risk programme is proposing new methodologies to examine the root issues surrounding the increase in disaster cost both human and economic. This paper attempts, as a case study, to investigate the Algiers (Algeria) floods and debris flows of 10 November 2001 which caused the loss of more than 714 human lives, injured more than 312, made missing 116 and about 10 000 were homeless, damaging more than 1500 housing units and scores of schools, bridges and public works. Keywords: Risk Reduction, methodology, case study, Forensic, Algeria Identifying and preparing for threats to critical infrastructure during protests or civil unrest BERNIER, Suzanne Naomi SB Crisis Consulting, Canada Presenting author: BERNIER, Suzanne Naomi [email protected] Recently, the emerging threat of protests, riots and civil unrest during mass gatherings has become a disturbing reality across the globe. Given the current global economic crisis, we will undoubtedly see an increase in these civil disturbances. As critical infrastructure sectors are often key targets during such events, it is essential that plans be developed in advance to mitigate and respond to these new and emerging threats. This session will highlight the various types of threats to critical infrastructure that could occur during mass gatherings, and the types of plans that should be in place to mitigate and respond to civil disturbances. The session will also review Lessons Learned from recent protests/civil disturbances that have occurred throughout the globe. Keywords: riots, civil unrest, mass gatherings, civil disturbances, critical infrastruture protection International municipal cooperation as a modality for transferring local best practices in disaster risk management: practice, promise and pitfalls BERSE, Kristoffer (1); ASAMI, Yasushi (2) 1: Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan; 2: Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan Presenting author: BERSE, Kristoffer [email protected] The paper introduces the concept of city-to-city cooperation (C2C); one of the modalities for international municipal linking that involves the sharing and, where appropriate, transfers of best practices from one locality to another. It has been estimated that 70 percent of cities worldwide engage in C2C in one way or another; yet there is still little academic understanding as to how it is actually practiced especially in the context of certain sectors such as disaster risk reduction. This paper provides a brief background on the development of C2C as a decentralized development cooperation strategy, and then zeroes in on the experience of some cities and organizations from Asia in enhancing various aspects of disaster risk management through C2C. It concludes with a discussion of the potential and limitations of C2C in enhancing the resilience of cities to disasters. Keywords: city-to-city cooperation, best practice transfer, disaster risk management

intangible resources among the different stakeholders be achieved. Without doubt, a principal endeavor of any exercise (and thus disaster exercises) is the identification of learning processes and linked outcomes. In order to optimize disaster response operations it is particularly necessary to focus on dynamic capabilities. These can be defined as (learning) processes and (behavior) patterns by which existing resources, skills, procedures or routines can be matched or combined in different ways to perform their function and meet new challenges. An example of these capabilities, in the context of disaster exercises, are the differing mechanisms for guaranteeing the preparedness, response and coordination of European civil protection teams and modules. These situations create diverse options for action learning and opportunities for the systematic transfer of experiences. In this respect this paper aims to outline basic contents of identifying and managing dynamic capabilities in disaster exercises using a systemic and multidimensional approach inspired by design science. Firstly this includes the identification of key dynamic capabilities in disaster exercises as well as the description of the processes and conditions (e.g. the combination of implicit and explicit knowledge, improvisation) that are necessary for the formation and development of dynamic capabilities. Currently there are a lack of common, agreed and research validated, parameters that can be used for the evaluation of disaster response performance. This paper aims to introduce and discuss possible parameters and criteria that can be used for this evaluation. The paper concludes with considerations regarding further research activities in order to deepen our understanding of these first findings. Keywords: dynamic capabilities, learning processes, disaster exercises, dynamic changes FORIN or Farout ? Exploring multiple drivers of disaster risks in Africa BENOUAR, Djillali (1); ROVINS, Jane (2) 1: USTHB, Built Environment Research Laboratory (LBE), Alger, Algeria,; 2: Executive Director, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) IPO, Beijing, China Presenting author: BENOUAR, Djillali [email protected] Disasters are increasingly being understood as ‘processes’ and not discreet ‘events’. Moreover, the causes of disasters are driven by complex engineering, socio-economic, socio-cultural, and various geophysical factors. Such interacting driving factors, occurring across a range of temporal and spatial scales, combine in numerous ways to configure disaster risks. Using some selected disasters in Africa, the dynamics of such risks and their configurations will be explored using a new approach and methodology, namely Forensic Disaster Investigations (also called FORIN studies). Forensic task is perhaps similar to solving a picture of a disaster puzzle. Initially, there are dozens or even hundreds of apparently disorganized pieces piled when examined individually, each piece may not provide much information. Methodically, the various pieces are sorted and patiently fitted together in a logical context taking into account all the parameters. Slowly, an overall picture of the disaster emerges. When a significant portion of the disaster puzzle has been solved, it then becomes easier to see where the remaining pieces fit. FORIN relies upon the actual evidence found and applies accepted scientific methodologies and principles to interpret

cyclones, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis where the majority of victims are killed by their own collapsing houses. From the perspectives of environmental degradation, human intervention, and security aspects, disaster management is a pressing issue for all of us and should be undertaken on a comprehensive basis. The approach seeks communities at risk get engaged in all of its phases: prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Empowered the community is the most effective approach to achieving sustainability in dealing with natural disaster risks. Shusamaj Foundation is carrying out various community-based programmes to establish disaster prevention as an essential component of sustainable development. Its activities include improvement of the safety levels of core community facilities such as schools; the dissemination of best practices in disaster risk management at the community level; and the formulation of integrated programmes for sustainable development through disaster risk management initiatives. The paper presents analysis and some findings of those programmes which engage communities to deal with disaster risks.Keywords: Disaster, empower, community, risk, management

Tale of two cities: developing city reliance strategies under climate change scenarios for Indore and Surat, India BHAT, Gopalakrishna; RAJASEKAR, Umamaheshwaran; KARANTH, Anup TARU Leading Edge, India, Republic of Presenting author: KARANTH, Anup [email protected] This article discusses the methodology adapted in designing city resilience concepts under changing climate scenarios for two cities in India, namely, Indore and Surat. The study was carried out during the second phase of Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN). One of the aims for the development of this climate resilience strategy was to reduce the impacts of climate change. The strategy provides an overarching framework with clear vision and direction for improved delivery of services by the city governments and action to be undertaken by communities to avoid disasters and to promote economic development of the city as well as the metropolitan region under varying climatic conditions.

In this study, risk assessment was conducted to get a better understanding of impacts on city. City wide vulnerability assessment was carried out using GIS based vulnerability assessment techniques to gain knowledge about current vulnerability of different sections of population across space and socio-economic background. The issue of climate change is cross-cutting, therefore, sector studies were undertaken to determine the degree to which existing systems can response to varying climatic conditions. The assessment results were integrated to draw an informed resilience approach for the cities in dealing with climate variability and change.

Resilience strategy development was based on existing climate science, risk information, urban planning/development framework, current vulnerability and anticipated future risks, resource constraints, economic development and identification of critical uncertainties. These were carried out

The Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network: strengthening the public health prevention and outbreak control strategy BERTHERAT, Eric (1); JANCLOES, Michel (2); FIRTH, Emily (1); DURSKI, Kara (1) 1: WHO, Switzerland; 2: Health and Climate Foundation Presenting author: JANCLOES, Michel [email protected] Leptospirosis has emerged to become a major public health problem. Within the last decade, there has been a worldwide increase in the number of reported cases, specifically through post disaster outbreaks. The true burden of leptospirosis outbreaks is likely to be grossly under-estimated due to the non-specific clinical presentations of the disease and the complexity of laboratory confirmation. These factors limit the understanding of the natural history of the disease, and many questions related to the control strategy remain unanswered, particularly in an epidemic situation. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the disease to certain environmental conditions suggests that climate change may impact the nature of the disease and the magnitude and severity of outbreaks. In 2006, the Leptospirosis Burden Epidemiology Reference Group, a World Health Organization partnership was established to determine the disease burden of leptospirosis. The second step was to revise and improve the control strategy of the disease. This involves a comprehensive overview of the disease to understand the relationships between humans, animals, and the environment; the role of domestic animals and agricultural practices; the association between disease burden and human behaviour, and the impact of climate. In response to the many unanswered questions surrounding leptospirosis, WHO and the Health Climate Foundation developed a new approach whereby the knowledge and expertise of the public health challenges and risk factors are integrated through a multi-disciplinary, technical framework. Launched in 2010, the Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network gathers representatives from international organizations and foundations as well as researchers. It offers an opportunity to strengthen current public health strategies and mitigate the risk and impact of leptospirosis outbreaks in populations at high risk. It also creates a forum to develop new advocacy and funding opportunities for leptospirosis, and offers further support for capacity building, training and technology transfer, as needed. Keywords: leptospirosis, natural disaster Empowering communities to cope with disaster risks through community-based disaster management BHADRA, Manash Ronjan; KANAK, NNM Mujibuddaula Sardar Kanak; ISLAM, Rabiul Shusamaj Foundation, Bangladesh, People's Republic of Presenting author: BHADRA, Manash Ronjan [email protected] Disaster risk is on the rise throughout the world. Over the past two to three decades, the economic losses and the number of people who have been affected by natural disasters have increased more rapidly than both economic and population growth. Natural disasters severely hamper the progress and achievements of sustainable development while, at the same time, physical infrastructure we are constructing may itself constitute a source of risk in the event of future disasters. This is particularly true in the case of natural disaster like

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World Vision International, Ethiopia Presenting author: BOKA, Gutu Tesso [email protected] North Shewa is among the areas hardest hit by climate change, mainly through the frequent occurrence of climate change induced hazards like flooding, insect outbreaks, hailstorm, alien weeds, disease and pests, droughts and all others which are a result of climate change. Time series data collected from Central Statistical Authority of Ethiopia and the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia were employed for the study. This paper examines the variability in the trends of precipitation and temperature over the period of three decades. It tries to measure the number of people and area of land which is vulnerable to climate change induced shocks over time scale. It then estimates the impacts of climate change on food production using an econometric model; where climate variables together with other factors were set to be determinant of food production over time. The co-integrated Vector Auto Regressive and Error Correction Models are employed to empirically analyze the impact of climate change factors on food production. The long run estimation result shows that while food production is significantly affected by improved technology, area under irrigation, manure usage, Meher rain and temperature, fertilizer application and Belg rain were found to be less significant in the model. The Johannes’ approach revealed that 90 percent of the variation in productivity is explained by area under irrigation, area covered by manure per hectare, the change in usage of improved variety per hectare, and the three climate parameters (Meher Rain, Belg rain and Average temperature). It is, therefore, recommended that if agricultural food production need to be increased and sustained, it is necessary to encourage use of irrigation, introduction of improved drought tolerant varieties, and conservation of the natural environment.Keywords: Climate Variability, Climate Change Impact, Natural disaster Enhancing regional resilience to cope with critical infrastructure disruptions: the public-private partnership experience in Lombardy Region, Italy BOUCHON, Sara (1); DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); TRUCCO, Paolo (2); ZACCONE, Andrea (3) 1: Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Italy, Republic of; 2: Politecnico di Milano, Italy; 3: Lombardy Region, Italy Presenting author: BOUCHON, Sara [email protected] Critical infrastructures (CIs) provide a number of fundamental services (transportation, energy, communication, etc.) on which society depends. The disruption or destruction of some of these infrastructures, triggered by natural, technological or intentional events, can be debilitating to the needs of society and individual citizens. To prevent potential crisis situation, due to the disruption of essential services, there is a need, not only to set up effective critical infrastructure protection (CIP) strategies, but also to enhance the resilience of society, i.e. its capability of detecting, facing, and recovering from any type of CIs disruption. While most CIP policies are developed at national level, the regional level appears particularly adapted to the implementation of strategies focusing on developing a holistic disaster resilience approach, based on governance principles.

through extensive studies, information exchange between city stakeholders and consolidation from series of risk to resilience (R2R) workshops.

This study is one of the pioneering efforts towards developing urban resilience strategies under changing climate scenarios for Indian cities. The methodology adapted for the two cities are currently being owned and replicated within other cities in India by a series of government and private institutions. Keywords: climate resilience strategy, climate change, scenario development, urban, adaptation Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: new challenges and new insights from the IPCC SREX report and own Studies BIRKMANN, Joern UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security Presenting author: BIRKMANN, Joern [email protected] Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) are interconnected thematic areas which both deal with common themes and address similar issues such as the impact of extreme weather events on vulnerable people as well as aim to reduce this vulnerability. However, both communities often still operate in parallel without sufficient exchange and collaboration.An important milestone in the recent past was the development of the IPCC SREX report that brought together researchers from climate change, climate impact assessment as well as vulnerability reduction and disaster risk management. The report underscores that DRR is today an important task that will need to receive even more attention in the light of climate changeAdaptation to recent and expected Climate Changes implies three tasks in particular: first adaptation to gradual changes, such as changes in average temperature and sea-level rise, secondly reducing and managing the risk linked to extremes weather related events, such as cyclones, floods etc. Thirdly, address the shifts of climate zones which might subject some regions to risks which previously had not been experienced. Challenges in terms of linking DRR and CCA encompass particularly institutional issues, problems related to risk identification and mismatches of different response strategies and measures to extreme events and creeping changes as well as in the development of validation criteria to monitor the linking of DRR and CCA.The paper outlines particular challenges in terms of linking DRR and CCA with regard to different temporal, spatial and functional scales. Specific challenges for present approaches in DRR will be illustrated, such as new challenges for early warning and risk and vulnerability assessment. The paper concludes that a more adaptive disaster risk management is needed in order to address the challenges of climate change and climate variability more efficiently. A time series analysis of climate variability and its impact on food production in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia BOKA, Gutu Tesso; EMANA, Dr. Bezabih; KETEMA, Dr. Mengistu

functionality of the related GIS-based decision support system for defining mitigation strategies. In particular, the focus will be laid on how such an approach meets the requirements of the risk management decision process. A comparison of regular and disrupted operations for route planning in freight transportation BROCK, Maximilian (1); MATTEIS, Tilman (2); HAYDEN, Cristina (1); ZHANG, Li (2); GROSS, Wendelin (1) 1: 4flow AG, Germany, Federal Republic of; 2: Institute for Economic Policy Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: BROCK, Maximilian [email protected] A case study is carried out in order to display and assess the impact of infrastructural disruptions on a real-life based retail distribution network in Germany. The primary objective is to prove the viability of coupling a model for traffic simulation and one for route planning decision support in order to assess infrastructural disruptions under a risk management viewpoint. A further objective is to work out if a route planning risk management strategy that makes use of unpaired traffic flows is effective to encounter the impacts of infrastructural disruptions on road traffic. In practice route planning has to consider periodic disruptions such as heavy traffic that occur regularly and extreme events that occur seldom but have consequences that are much worse. Regular variability in traffic flow is addressed by drawing route planning decisions in the case of a retail distribution network given a road network with simulated traffic load. For routing vehicles through such a network, we take advantage of unpaired traffic flows in the proximity of agglomerations. Infrastructural disruptions entail a major change in the traffic load. The requirements that route planning has to meet in this situation are detected and corresponding tours are built if possible. Behavior patterns that deviate from mainstream, i.e. adaption of routes, are expected to be helpful in case of emergency as not all road users presumably adapt the delivery tours in response to the extreme event. The performance of a route plan is measured against different criteria in a faultless and in a disturbed network such as punctuality, tardiness and, the fluctuation and thus reliability of arrival times from a transport science point of view. From a managerial point of view service level, overall costs, driving and waiting time are used to analyze different scenarios regarding their impact on the retail company’s performance. Keywords: freight transportation, disruption, traffic simulation, route planning, risk management Societal Security – the new standard ISO 22301 for Business Continuity Management BRUSAMOLINO, Luigi CISM, CRISC – Managing Director Southern Europe BSI Presenting author: BRUSAMOLINO, Luigi [email protected] BSI ISO 22301 is the new international standard for business continuity management recently published in May 2012.The standard provides the requirements for a business continuity management system (BCMS) and is based on global BCM best practices.

First results of the PReSIC programme carried on in the Lombardy Region, Italy, illustrate a possible way to operationalize resilience at regional level, in order to address issues related to CIs disruptions. The objective of the programme is to enhance regional resilience by improving prevention, early detection and emergency management practices, leveraging on a PPP with CIs operators. The development of a collaborative environment between the regional civil protection authorities and the operators of transport and energy infrastructures resulted in enhanced information sharing among actors, as the precondition for improving the crisis management strategies of the Region. The Lombardy example shows the added value of a collaborative approach in fostering practical, stakeholder-driven and cross-sector processes that allows building trust among public and private partners and addressing in an efficient way the complexity of the potential consequences and cascading effects triggered by CIs disruption. The presentation will report the main results of the PReSIC programme and will focus on how the gained experience can contribute to the discussion on regional resilience related to critical infrastructures.Keywords: Critical Infrastructures, resilience, Public-Private-Partnership, Lombardy region User requirements assessment to support the integrated risk management decision-making process BOUCHON, Sara; DIMAURO, Carmelo Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Italy, Republic of Presenting author: BOUCHON, Sara [email protected] In order to define risk reduction strategies, the public administrations in charge of risk management policies have to manage large territories characterized by multiple types of risks, i.e. natural and technological risks. Natural and technological risks are characterized by different phenomenology, frequency of occurrence, magnitude of impact. They also present different level of acceptability and perception among stakeholders. Therefore, multi-risk assessment is an innovative approach for identifying the most critical areas of a territory, with the view to support public authorities in defining and prioritizing mitigation and emergency management strategies. A multi-risk approach poses many challenges, since it requires combining a large amount of information about the hazards, the exposed targets and the related vulnerability values. The systematic and coherent interpretation of such information by the decision-makers is not simple, in particular when this information supports a decision-making process involving many stakeholders. Hence, it is particularly interesting and effective to have a tool that facilitates the integration of the information and the communication to and among stakeholders. Decision-making in this field is an iterative cognitive process and, for this reason, decision support applications must be built in a manner that permits changes to occur easily and quickly, without losing in accuracy of reference information. This improves the efficiency of the negotiation process allowing stakeholders to screen and to focus on the relevant dimension of the problem of concern. The conference contribution will report the results of several programmes aiming at defining multi-risk mitigation plans in Italy and will illustrate the main

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innovation and adaptation as well as more possibilities in preparation, avoidance and mitigation, is needed. A less probabilistic approach by journalists and scientist sources seems warranted, as does a greater emphasis on concepts of self- and community-efficacy in DRR. Keywords: Disaster risk reduction, science communication, community-efficacy, seismic risk, earthquake Are private flood mitigation measures successfully contributing to contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany? BUBECK, Philip (1,2); BOTZEN, Wouter (2); KREIBICH, Heidi (1); AERTS, Jeroen (2) 1: German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany; 2: Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands Presenting author: BUBECK, Philip [email protected] Flood risk is projected to increases in many places due to the effects of climate change and the on-going intensification of human activities in risk-prone areas. These projections and the considerable uncertainties associated with these developments increasingly require integrated approaches in flood risk management in Europe. In addition to traditional flood protection, the latter also aim at reducing the potential consequences of floods, amongst others, by means of flood mitigation measures implemented by private households. In Germany, the responsibility of private households to contribute to damage reduction was increasingly integrated in flood risk management in response to major floods in 1993 and 1995 along the Rhine and in response to the disastrous 2002 Elbe flood. However, even though non-structural measures have become an integral component of contemporary flood risk management, knowledge on them is still limited. This concerns in particular socio-economic and perceptual factors that possibly influence flood mitigation behaviour, the temporal and spatial spread of damage mitigation measures among flood-prone households as well as their effectiveness and cost-efficiency. Insights into these aspects are crucial for determining the efficiency of contemporary flood risk management. In our presentation, we will provide an in-depth overview on these aspects, drawing information from empirical data of computer-aided telephone surveys among 752 flood-prone households along the Rhine. For instance, we find that in addition to flood experience, the social environment and flood-coping appraisals are important factors that influence precautionary behaviour. The obtained insights will be used to provide recommendations to successfully manage the transition to integrated flood risk management concepts. Keywords: flood risk, damage mitigation, precautionary behaviour Does risk communication raise property owners’ preparedness to implement safety measures against flood damage? BUCHECKER, Matthias; MAIDL, Elisabeth Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Switzerland Presenting author: MAIDL, Elisabeth [email protected]

BSI (British Standard Institution), the world-leader in standards and certification services, is one of the pioneers of the original BCM best practice standard BS 25999 that has now been superseded by ISO 22301.The new standard ISO 22301 now comes under a wider societal security remit, acknowledging the important role that BCM has to play in protecting society and ensuring our ability to respond to incidents, emergencies and disasters.

The new international standard very much considers the organizations as part of the wider community, taking into account in the risk scenario and in the definition of emergency plans all stakeholders (supply chain, partners, local authorities,…).The standard provides a foundation and a common vocabulary and framework for BCM best practices and processes and is expected to be widely adopted.

The Greater Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011: a case study in the communication of science for disaster risk reduction BRYNER, Vivienne (1,2); NORRIS, Richard (2); FLEMING, Jean (1) 1: The Centre for Science Communication, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; 2: Geology Department, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand Presenting author: BRYNER, Vivienne [email protected] According to ideals enshrined in the UNISDR Hyogo Framework for Action, communication of disaster risk reduction (DRR) should be participatory and democratised as well as scientifically robust. Under this paradigm best-practice communication of science for DRR requires, amongst other things, contextualised information from a variety of perspectives that acknowledges uncertainties. This research explored how well DRR sciences are communicated against the aforementioned communicative ideals, whilst also measuring communicated content against current scholarly understandings from DRR-related research. Over 6000 earthquake-related articles presented in online print media in New Zealand (NZ) over the last three years, and >80 hours of earthquake-related NZ television news were analysed. Analysis revealed that what is being communicated has significant gaps in communication compared with scientific understandings of the causes of earthquake-related disaster, and possibilities in seismic risk reduction.

Mass media reports of disaster are hazard- and consequence-focussed with only limited mention of how individual and community vulnerabilities might be reduced. ‘Expert’ scientists presented in NZ’s mass media are drawn from a limited range of disciplines so that audiences may have difficulty gaining broader perspectives in DRR. Where risk is discussed the approach is probabilistic rather than on avoiding or mitigating exposure. Presentation of the detail of risk assessment and risk management (reduction) is rare. Lastly, attributions of responsibility for reducing exposure to seismic risk either focus on individual survival actions and a few household seismic adjustments, or implicitly suggest legislative and regulatory decision-making relating to risk reduction options be left to government and experts.

Information from a wider range of sciences, that supports

not amenable to full quantification yet because only limited data and experience are available or they cannot be fully covered by traditional risk indicators focusing mainly on consequences. Nevertheless, they can play a crucial rule in decision-making processes and policy formulation. Lastly, the impact of various future energy scenarios on the overall accident risk performance is analyzed, and how specific stakeholder preferences may affect the portfolio of potentially available low-carbon technologies. Keywords: Comparative Risk Assessment, Energy Security, Severe Accident, ENSAD database, Energy Scenarios Dealing with disaster in transitional democracies BYNANDER, Fredrik (1,2) 1: Centre for natural Disaster Research, Sweden, Kingdom of; 2: National Centre for Crisis management Research and Training (CRISMART) Presenting author: BYNANDER, Fredrik [email protected] Society’s susceptibility to the explosive forces of nature is a function of its robustness, flexibility and absorption of the trauma inflicted by major natural hazards. In order to improve society’s capacity to prevent and manage natural disasters, The Swedish Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) aims to help increasing the understanding of the societal, scientific and technical processes involved in natural disasters. This part of the program probes the link between democracy, governmental efficiency and natural hazards. It focuses specifically on transitional democracies and their ability to uphold some level of governance in the face of natural events that triggers a need for mitigation, response and recovery. Lessons are drawn from a large bank of case studies on transitional states responding to disaster. To better understand the complex interrelationship between society and natural hazards, scientific endeavours need to be truly integrative throughout the range between the complex behaviour of nature, the functional foundations of society and the technology that interconnects the two. CNDS is part of a government strategic research initiative that has recently set out to accomplish exactly this. The analysis discussed here is part of a core aim of the program to scrutinise the performance of policies targeting vulnerability to natural hazards, forms of negotiations and the design of international treaties, which can enhance natural disaster management. Keywords: Transitional democracies, Governance, Authoritarian tendencies, Institutional efficiency, Leadership Bridging sustainably the last mile connectivity in India and Myanmar CAPISTRANO, Melgabal (1); SINGH, Nagendra (2) 1: Malteser International, Germany; 2: Sahbhagi Shikshan Kendra (SSK), India Presenting author: CAPISTRANO, Melgabal [email protected] In the End to End Early Warning System (EWS), the “last mile” connectivity remains underdeveloped partly due to a lack of understanding of community capacities and needs and partly as a result of it being promoted as an “add on” to national systems. Malteser International’s initiatives in India and Myanmar demonstrate the critical contribution that communities make within early-warning and response

In the previous decade, in most European countries risk maps on natural hazards have been elaborated but there is so far little experience on how to efficiently communicate these maps to the public. Recently, the public authorities of Zurich informed the owners of buildings located within the hazard zone about flood risks. They received official letters containing information on potential danger and safety measures. In the cover letter they were also encouraged to acquire information about the particular risks for their property using an online accessible risk map. This campaign was based on the expectation that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. There is, however, little empirical evidence that these expected outcomes can be achieved by written forms of risk communication. With this project we aim to find out to which degree such a campaign can shape property owners risk perception and risk behaviour. In collaboration with public authorities we conducted a survey among 1500 owners in the hazard zones in Zurich. The standardized questionnaire comprises in particular items measuring respondents’ evaluation of the information material, the time they spent on studying it, dimensions of their risk perception, trust in authorities, level of responsibility, preparedness to implement safety measures, and other items. The results revealed that most respondents spent only little time on the flood risk information. It, however confirmed the motivating effect of the campaign on those who studied the material. Multivariate data analysis also provided insights on other factors that influence citizens’ preparedness to implement safety measures. Further the role of experience, trust in authorities and sense of responsibility are elaborated. The results will be discussed and implications for practice and future research will be drawn. Keywords: risk communication, natural hazards, risk perception, risk behaviour Comparative risk assessment of energy technologies in the context of energy security and sustainability BURGHERR, Peter; ECKLE, Petrissa; HIRSCHBERG, Stefan Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Switzerland Presenting author: BURGHERR, Peter [email protected] The energy sector is both a critical infrastructure and an important prerequisite for many economic activities in modern society. The comparative assessment of accident risks is a key aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of energy security and sustainability concerns. The applied framework for comparative risk assessment is based on the objective expression of accident risks for complete energy chains, building upon historical experience available in the Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD), complemented by simplified probabilistic safety assessment and expert judgment. The analytical scope includes major centralized technologies such as fossil (coal, oil, natural gas), hydro and nuclear energy chains as well as decentralized new renewables (e.g. photovoltaics, wind, geothermal). Results are provided for aggregated indicators such as fatality rates and maximum credible consequences (serving as a proxy for risk aversion), and frequency-consequence (F-N) curves. Additionally, a variety of risk aspects are presented that are

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disaster-response capacity at the EU level in the field of post-earthquake structural evaluation. The project propose the development and implementation of a new "capacity" for the Mechanism, as a new "module for the post-disaster structural evaluation".

The capability has been conceived as a MACRO-MODULE composed by three modules, which can either inter-operate or work independently, according to the possible intervention scenarios:

1. Basic Seismic Assessment module (BSA): for ordinary usability assessment2. Advanced Seismic Assessment module (ASA): for strategic / complex structures3. Short-term countermeasures module (STC): to prop up damaged structures and infrastructures.The TREES Lab Section of the EUCENTRE Foundation is responsible for the Advanced Seismic Assessment module (ASA), for strategic / complex structures, with dedicated instrumentation Keywords: BUILDSAFE, post-earthquake assessment, Civil protection modules Lessons Learned from Multi Casualty incidents response by Magen David Adom Israel CASPI, Guy Magen David Adom Israel Presenting author: CASPI, Guy [email protected] Magen David Adom, Israel's National EMS, is in charge of the medical response to multi casualty incidents. Those incidents include transportation accidents (busses and trains), structural fires, and one large wild fire, terrorist attacks (mainly suicide bombers).

MCI doctrine has been revised and operational debriefings are routine.

1. Declaring the MCI – In order to minimize time, the authority to declare a MCI should be delegated to the "grass root" and they must have the support in case of a "non -justified" activation.2. Check lists – the first minutes of a MCI are very chaotic. In order to support the field personnel "checklists" have been created.3. "Bomb squad" procedures. The "normal" procedure of waiting for "clearance" from bomb squad technicians to enter the explosion site has proven non feasible.4. Managing within the chaos. MDA philosophy is that there is little sense in trying to organize the chaos, and the better solution is to learn to work within the chaos.5. Surge capacity – there is a need to bring additional personnel and equipment fast to the scene, on top of those available in the ambulances responding to the incident.6. Incident commanders need to be well identified. Each commander needs an assistant dealing with communications.7. Coordination and cooperation between the different organizations is essential. In many cases organizations work side by side and not jointly, previous personal acquaintance of commanders is extremely important.......

systems, and as drivers of them. Lessons learned show that the last mile can be bridged sustainably where communities and their vulnerabilities are taken as the starting point for local system development and strong links to national systems are established. Benefiting from the mobile EWS for floods in Uttar Pradesh (India) are 50 flood prone hamlets through a successful system based on auto-dialing software with engagement of the authorities responsible for district level early warning. It authenticates existing indigenous practices through a government managed system. The project has attempted to make the authority’s system more effi-cient and accountable and is based on the assumption that they will exercise their duty as envisaged in the national Disaster Management policy and will continue managing the EWS. To prepare villages prone to cyclones in Myanmar, Malteser International developed an innovative flag system using understandable warning messages derived from complicated hydro-meteorological data. By engaging women in EWS activities which were dominated traditionally by men, their decision making capacity was increased. Village government officials were included as members of the disaster management committees, which were organized to disseminate reliable warning information as they are credible members of the community. The EWS projects implemented form part of a wider DRR program, in which increasing community knowledge and inclusive social mobilization had been crucial. These initiatives have not been established as standalone activity and this is a critical factor in their success. DRHOUSE project: the ASA module for the post earthquake structural assessment CASAROTTI, Chiara; PAVESE, Alberto EUCENTRE Foundation, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: CASAROTTI, Chiara [email protected] The project DRHOUSE (Development of Rapid Highly-specialized Operative Units for Structural Evaluation) is inserted within the perspective of integrating the shortage of disaster-response capacity at the European level in the field of post-earthquake structural evaluation. The main objective is the development and implementation of a new Civil Protection Module able to ensure a rapid and effective response in the field of the post-earthquake damage and safety assessment targeted to enhance the European Rapid Response Capability within the European Community Mechanism for civil protection.

The European rapid response capability is based on the development of civil protection modules of the Member States, which are self-sufficient task and needs driven services. Each MODULE is an autonomous operational team representing a combination of human and material means, described by specific tasks, capacities, components, self-sufficiency and deployment, possibly interoperable with other modules, according to the Decision 2008/73/EC, Euratom (december 2007), which defines general requirements for European Civil Protection modules.

Following recently identified quantitative gaps related to the earthquake emergency in the current state of the Mechanism, the project DRHOUSE aims at integrating the shortage of

to be associated with their attitudes towards community and religious leaderships, perspectives toward the causes of disasters and pathways towards mitigation, family organisations and relationship to places of worship, gender roles, attitudes towards charity, ownership and transference of property and spiritual empowerment.

The case study resettlement villages were selected based on their clearly identifiable religious communities. Moratuwa is an area that has historically been settled by Catholics with early influences from the Spanish missionaries; Kalutara is an area that is predominantly Buddhists with a historical Buddhist stupa and temple in the township and Hambantota, although a majority Buddhist district has a concentration of Muslims living in the coastal town that was severely affected in the tsunami. These case studies are also chosen because they were built by two international religious NGOs - Christian Habitat for Humanity and Buddhist Compassion Relief Tzu Chi Foundation, both of which considered religion as part of their approach to recovery and reconstruction.

The significance of this research is to contribute to a better understanding of cultural resilience especially religious cultures that can be found across the developing world where entrenched vulnerabilities create many disasters. Insights on how cultural codes, frameworks and attitudes affect disaster preparedness, mitigation and recovery can assist planners and emergency managers working to build resilience in different cultural contexts. Keywords: Disaster recovery, cultural resilience, religious communities, Sri Lanka The climate change impact and adaptation strategy on disaster in Taiwan CHEN, Yung-ming (1); CHEN, Liang-chun (1,2) 1: Natinonal Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, Republic of China; 2: National Taiwan University, Graduate Institute of Building and Planning Presenting author: CHEN, Yung-ming [email protected] Because Taiwan is located above the seismic belt at the western edge of the Pacific Ocean and is on the main path of typhoons invading the western North Pacific Ocean, it is frequently affected by nature hazards. With 73% of Taiwan’s population exposed to three or more hazards a year and nearly 99% exposed to at least two a year, Taiwan is situated in a high risk region of the world as mentioned in “natural disaster hotspots – a global risk analysis” (World Bank, 2005). The statistics for the frequency of typhoons and the variability of extreme rainfall over the past 40 years suggest that extreme rainfall typhoons tended to occur approximately once every three or four years during the pre-2000 period and increased in frequency to once a year post-2000. These numbers show that Taiwan has suffered from serious flooding and typhoon disasters more frequently in recent years. Under the threat of climate change impact, Taiwan established the Climate Change Adaptation Policy Framework (Taiwan CCAPF) based on UNDP/GEF APF. The disaster risk reduction is one of the most important issues in the APF. Some suggestions on disaster prevention and adaptation strategies against climate change are presented here as follows: (1) promote the climate change risk assessment and set the high risk conservation

Training programs for risk reduction of typhoon disaster chains in southeast coastal region of China CHANG, Sheng (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2); LEI, Yongdeng (1,2); MA, Liang (1); LI, Qunfang (1) 1: School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2: Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Presenting author: CHANG, Sheng [email protected] In the context of global climate change and rapid socio-economic development of China, the southeast coastal region is becoming the most developed area in China, carrying 16.97% of the total population and 24.64% of China’s GDP with less than 5% of the total land territory. However, in the past decade, the southeast coastal region (including Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, and Zhejiang provinces) suffered 20 times disaster chains per year including rainstorm, floods, and landslide/debris flow caused by the typhoon disasters, with 168.3 of annual average casualties and about $100Million of direct economic losses per year, which seriously threaten regional security. Based on characteristics of the typhoon-flood-landslide/debris flows chains and theory of regional disaster system, two series of training programs for disaster reduction are developed, one is public-oriented program for regional background training according to the features of regional hazard-formative environment, hazards, hazard-affected bodies, and disaster cases. The other is a series of stakeholder-oriented training programs. The content of the program includes: teacher training program based on disaster risk reduction experience popularization and emergency drilling, and cultivation of campus safety culture; training of community disasters correspondents for their daily disaster information management; governmental staffs training contains understanding and exercise of emergency plans, and multi-sectors coordination; volunteer training focuses on emergency rescue knowledge and normalized volunteer services. This training program can be more practical and efficiency by integrating the above two training series. This research could help to improve the national system of disaster reduction training and risk governance. Public risk awareness and response capacity for disaster chains may also be strengthened through this training program to facilitate regional disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. Keywords: China, Typhoon disaster chains, Training programs for disaster risk reduction, Public-oriented, Stakeholder-oriented Disaster cultural resilience of religious communities – case study from Sri Lanka post 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami CHEN, Ted Yu Shen University of Melbourne, Australia Presenting author: CHEN, Ted Yu Shen [email protected] This paper examines cultural resilience through the lens of religions, namely Muslim, Buddhist and Christian communities in Sri Lanka. Findings from my PhD study where I conducted in-depth interviews with thirty-eight households from three resettlement villages and eight religious NGO officers that participated in the resettlement programs reveal that some religious communities are more resilient than others. Differences in resilience and vulnerability are found

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October 8, 2005 and damaged and area of 30,000 square kilometers, 75,000 people were killed, over 85,000 injured, infrastructure was partially to completely damaged and over 3.5 million were left homeless. The scale of disaster warranted the creation of Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), and massive reconstruction efforts by government and international humanitarian groups were launched. After 6 years and billions of rupees in spending has rebuilt only 57% of the roads, schools, hospitals, 90% projects are behind schedule and 70 have cost variations. This research based on the interviews of the key stakeholders, construction and disaster management personnel and affected society endeavors to capture the causes of success and failure of this massive reconstruction effort. The research aims to establish the project success criteria, and to explore the causes of success and failure as applicable to such mega disaster. Data was gathered through survey questionnaires, structured and semi structured interviews of key stakeholders. The results were validated using statistical methods. Meeting the schedule, budget and stakeholders’ satisfaction evolved as primary success criteria for measuring the performance of post disaster construction projects. From the response on fifty-five variables, this study extracted important success and failure factors of post-disaster reconstruction projects by using factors analysis. Clarity of goals, detailed planning, full-time experienced project manager, detailed written contracts and effective monitoring emerged as five critical success factors. Five factors critical to failure factors were shortage of resources, financial problems, lengthy decision process, excessive subletting and excessive centralization. A framework to deal with serious large scale calamities and for better handling of the mega reconstruction and rehabilitation effort is proposed. This study also develops a comprehensive base for future research, especially in the determination of success factors in rehabilitation and reconstruction projects. Keywords: Critical Success Factors, Rehabilitation, Reconstruction Posttraumatic stress and psychiatric co-morbidity following bombing in Iraq: the role of shattered world assumptions and altered self-capacities CHUNG, Man Cheung (1); FREH, Fuaad Mohammed (2); DALLOS, Rudi (2) 1: Zayed University, United Arab Emirates,; 2: University of Plymouth, UK, Presenting author: CHUNG, Man Cheung [email protected] Whilst research has looked at posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and psychiatric co-morbidity among civilians exposed to bombing (e.g. Duchet et al, 2000), there is a lack of longitudinal data on the development of these outcomes and the psychological factors associated with them, particularly among Iraqi civilians. To investigate 1) the trajectory of PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity following bombing among civilians in Iraq and 2) the link between shattered world assumptions, altered self-capacities and identified health outcomes. One hundred and eighty (F=90, M=90) Iraqi civilians exposed to first time bombing were recruited from the Ministry of Health approximately one month (time 1) after the bombing and five months (time 2) after the baseline assessment. They completed the posttraumatic stress diagnostic scale, the general health questionnaire-28, the world assumptions questionnaires and the inventory of

area; (2) improve integration system of disaster monitoring and warning; (3) evaluate the vulnerability and protection capacity of critical infrastructure and new development plan; (4) promote comprehensive river basin management; (5) consider the extreme event and large-scale disasters in disaster prevention and protection policy .

The finally we will show the disaster risk maps under climate change in Taiwan. Keywords: Climate Change, Disasster Risk Reduction, Adaptation Strategy, Extreme Events Development of natural disaster damage investigation system using smartphone in Korea CHO, Jae Woong; CHOI, Woo Jung National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of Presenting author: CHO, Jae Woong [email protected] Recently, NDMS (National Disaster Management System) electronic-disaster register system is operated by National Emergency Management Agency(in Korea) to solve problems that are caused by the paper-based disaster registering system. However, the problems of field investigating (manpower and time shortage, etc.) are still existed. Therefore, a disaster damage investigation technology is developed using smartphone to solve the problems of field and duplications of work.

In this study, a disaster damage investigation process using smartphone is developed through the analysis of current process. In this work, a smartphone application was developed based on the synchronization NDMS DB system. In addition, this system was field-tested in damaged areas.

Disaster damage investigation App is able to easily enter the list items of NDMS. Also this App can capture images and location information by built in camera and GPS through wireless internet in real-time.

The disaster investigation App from this study can provide more simple and systematic damage investigation environment using smartphone compared with the existing investigation method. Also this system can setup rapid investigation environment of 30% increased speed to the existing method by eliminating repetitive paper works. Another advantage of this system can provide the exact location information of damaged area. Keywords: Disaster Investgation, Smartphone, App Causes of success and failure in post disaster reconstruction projects – a case study of post 2005 earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction in Northern Pakistan CHOUDHARY, Muhammad Abbas (1); MEHMOOD, Kashif (2) 1: University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan, Pakistan, Islamic Republic of; 2: College of E&ME, National University of Science and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan Presenting author: CHOUDHARY, Muhammad Abbas [email protected] An earthquake of 7.6 Richter scale hit northern Pakistan on

resilience building and strongly emphasizes that learning is key for contributing to resilience. The objective of the input is to provide food for a discussion on how NGOs, practitioners and donors can enhance the effect of learning and transformation in humanitarian and development work. Based on the three case studies presented by HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation, Caritas Switzerland and Swiss Red Cross, a set of features had been identified contributing to resilience building. All case studies underline the importance of learning and transformation as a major source for resilience building. The special report emphasizes that a mix of actions ranging from incremental steps to transformational changes are crucial to reduce the adverse impacts of extreme events. While incremental steps aim to improve efficiency within existing technological, governance, and value systems, transformation involves alterations of fundamental attributes of a system such as regulatory or legislative regimes, biophysical or technological systems. Especially in countries where vulnerability is high and the adaptive capacity low, changes in extreme climate and weather events can make it difficult for systems to adapt sustainably without transformational changes. So the main questions are therefore what are the mechanisms which positively shape such a learning environment? What is necessary that a community envisages learning as key or even undergoes such a transformational change? How can we support these communities in this process or is it out of our reach? USA building code changes resulting from 9/11 attacks CORLEY, William Gene CTLGroup, United States of America Presenting author: CORLEY, William Gene [email protected] Although commercial buildings cannot be designed to survive impact from the largest aircraft and still be commercially viable, the 9/11 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City disclosed several places where building codes could be improved to increse surviveability of occupants in extreme events. The American Society of Civil Engineers and Federal Emergency Management Agency carried out an investigation, headed by the author, of building performance of the twin towers after the 9/11 attacks. This was followed by an extensive research study by NIST. Based on the ASCE/FEMA and NIST studies, a large number of building standards changes were recommended. This paper describes the attacks, indicates how the towers collapsed, summarizes the recommended standards changes and presents those changes that have been made to date. The impact on building safety during extreme events is discussed. Keywords: Terrorism, 9/11 attacks, Building Standards, Robustness, Safety A long term building capacity model that prepares for effective disaster relief COUPET, Sidney; COPPOLA, Christopher Doctors United For Haiti (DUFH), United States of America Presenting author: COUPET, Sidney [email protected] Doctors United For Haiti (DUFH) is an international non-profit organization that brings healthcare volunteers to Haiti with the main focus of sharing knowledge, skills and

altered self-capacities. There was a significant decline in the proportion of people meeting the diagnostic criteria for PTSD (n=138 baseline vs 121 follow-up). All psychiatric co-morbid symptoms also declined significantly over time. For the cross-sectional analysis, controlling for demographic variables, regression analysis showed that controllability of events (β=-0.21), safety and vulnerability (β=0.30) and affect dysregulation (β=0.37) significantly predicted PTSD time 1. Controllability of events (β=-0.19) and affect dysregulation (β=0.33) also predicted psychiatric co-morbidity at time 1. For the prospective analysis, controlling for PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity at time 1, none of the shattered world assumption and altered self-capacity dimensions predicted PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity at time 2. These findings would be discussed in terms of individual resilience. The paper concludes that following bombing, civilians developed PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity which declined over time. Civilians’ perceptions of their ability to control events in the world and regulate their affect had a short term impact on the severity of these symptoms. Keywords: Posttraumatic stress, bombing, shattered world assumptions, altered self-capacities What role for soldiers? CLARKE, John L. Marshall Center, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: CLARKE, John L. [email protected] In an era of declining budgets, governments are increasingly relying on the armed forces to provide disaster relief and humanitarian aid, both domestically and internationally, in addition to other domestic contingencies. Yet defense budgets in most countries are also declining. This presentation will examine the role for military forces in managing these crises and their consequences. It will identify what soldiers can, must, should and should not do in support of civil authorities. It will lay out the appropriate criteria for defense support to civil authority, provide and elaborate on five categories of mission for the armed forces and make recommendations on how the military should be employed and what kinds of military forces are appropriate and capable for these kinds of missions. The intent is to provide civil authorities and the disaster management community with information that will aid their decison making on the role of the military in disaster management. Keywords: military, soldiers, disasters, defense Strengthening resilience through learning and transformation CLOT, Nicole Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation Presenting author: CLOT, Nicole [email protected] There is no single answer of managing risks or adapting to the changing climate. A balanced portfolio of measures to enhance local collective action and create subsidiary structures at national and international scales as well as multiple hazard risk management approaches are essential to strengthen resilience. The IPCC Special Report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation puts particular emphasis on

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while minimizing risk.

An initiative of the Government 2.0 QLD community of practice in Australia and embraced globally, the wiki aims to help build resilient communities, empowered with the knowledge to use social media in emergency communications.

It provides tips on how to use social media to better prepare for, respond to and recover from emergencies. This includes a global directory of contacts for emergency agencies and NGOs and emergency apps for mobile devices.

Practical guidelines, checklists, case studies and resources assist the emergency sector, government, business, education and NGOs to use social networks, crowdsourcing and crisis mapping for emergency management and business continuity planning.

The guidelines cover all phases of emergency management; prevention, preparation, response and recovery and include a risk and mitigation checklist. Sourced from ‘the wisdom of the crowd’; professionals across all industry sectors: emergency, government, education, health, business, NGO, business and the media, the wiki is a living resource, updated to incorporate new technologies and methodologies. Keywords: Emergency20wiki, social networks, community resilience Proposed seismic risk reduction program for lifelines in the megacity of Tehran, Iran DARDAEI, Sadegh; SHAKIB, Hamzeh Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: SHAKIB, Hamzeh [email protected] The overall seismic risk of Tehran shows that this megacity has high potential of seismic hazard and vulnerable city elements such as: residential, commercial, official, and general buildings, lifelines, and infrastructure. Lifelines and infrastructures are important facilities for maintaining the standard of human life.The total length of Tehran highways and streets are about 10,000 km. The road network covers physically well the whole area in the megacity of Tehran. However, in the southern parts of the city, areas with narrow roads (3–6 m width) exist. Bridge structures are considered together with the road network. The inventory list of bridges in Tehran includes about 250 bridges. In Tehran, nearly 80 water reservoirs exist and primarily concentrate in the northern parts of the city due to the geographic topology. Water transmission pipes with a total length of 9,000 km are located in the urban areas. The material types are precast reinforced concrete, steel, and ductile iron with varying diameters. The total length of natural gas pipes in Tehran is about 1,310 km. This 40-year-old gas pipeline is made of approximately 80% carbon steel and 20% polyethylene.The information about seismic damage of infrastructures and lifelines is very important for the preparation phase of seismic disaster management plan. The lessons from previous earthquakes in the various cities in the world show that almost all infrastructures will go out of operational services. However, gas damage may cause a serious secondary disaster.Considering the high level of seismic hazard and the number

relationship building that has developed a network of capable local healthcare providers. This network can easily be used to help coordinate relief during an emergency in Haiti, such as the 2010 earthquake, as well as provide an opportunity for a safe transition from emergency planning to more long-term interventions. DUFH volunteers visit Haiti and work side by side with local Haitian healthcare providers who are working in private practice, government facilities, faith-based organizations, or non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The volunteers and the local Haitian healthcare providers form an integrated team that delivers quality care and identify opportunities for improvement within their respective facilities in Haiti. Relationship building occurs through a symbiotic beneficial experience where the local Haitian healthcare provider is empowered and receives direct support while volunteers receive an international experience that is transferable to their home institutions. These experiences are measured and followed through the DUFH database. DUFH has partnered with local providers/facilities in the north, central and south Haiti where integrated teams deliver primary and preventative services in a decentralized fashion. This would provide a platform to streamline and coordinate disaster relief plans around the country that would allow Haitian nationals to be involved and become a legitimate partner, which has major diplomatic implications. DUFH’s model also encourages Haitian ownership in that it provides an opportunity for local healthcare providers to function and become more competitive in their own country. This provides an opportunity for international aid organizations to safely and confidently transfer power back to Haitians after a disaster in their country. Through DUFH’s model we can prepare Haiti for future disasters while simultaneously strengthening Haiti’s healthcare system. Keywords: Capacity Building, Haiti Healthcare System, Integrated Delivery Team How the emergency 2.0 Wiki can help build resilient communities, empowered with the knowledge to use web 2.0 and social media in emergencies CULLETON, Eileen Emergency 2.0 Wiki Ltd, Australia Presenting author: CULLETON, Eileen [email protected] During the unprecedented disasters that swept the globe in 2011, the world witnessed the empowering nature of social media to instantly broadcast and amplify emergency warnings, provide real time localised information and interactive maps, crowdsource information from citizens and enable them to seek information for themselves, share information and directly help people in need.

Yet despite its rising popularity, the use of social media is still not a normal part of mainstream emergency communications. Key reasons are the challenge and risk this new technology poses and a lack of understanding across the community of how to use these new technologies in emergency communications.

The Emergency 2.0 Wiki was developed as a free global resource and collaborative model to facilitate global sharing and advancing knowledge on how to effectively utilise web 2.0 and social media in emergency management communications

deal of numerous chemicals. Magnetized water molecules will radically alter and accelerate physical and chemical transformations; allowing rain clouds to be created; clouds to be discharged in specific locations; irrigation to be enhanced to produce class A crops within marginal land; the enhancement of existing crops to increase productivity; ability to desalinate salt contaminated ground back into production; improve the propagation of seeds; strengthening and speeding up new plants growth; reduce the use of fertilizers; reduce the disease rate; enable the use of brackish salt water as irrigation with increased benefits over fresh water; improve fresh drinking water supplies reducing the quantity required but retaining the benefits to humans and animals. This science is the secret to the key to unlock access to a variety of challenges both now within our fragile world and in future within a potential crisis ridden world with conflict over food production and supply and fresh water management and availability. This presentation will outline the key initiatives through the use of magnetic technology applications that will help address, ease and solve many of today’s humanitarian challenges in marginal, drought and famine challenged environments.Keywords: Food, Rain, Irrigation, Drought, Famine. READ - Risk Exposure Awareness and Deflection - creating an organization-wide risk awareness program DE LANDGRAAF, Arjen Bricade Ltd, New Zealand Presenting author: DE LANDGRAAF, Arjen [email protected] System and Data breaches can be game changers for organizations that suffer major incidents. The key is to prevent the significant breach from happening in the first place.

That means making Risk Awareness a part of the corporate ethos, and training employees to focus on this issue. Unfortunately, many companies don't dedicate sufficient resources to this area, and no doubt we'll be discussing information security and data breaches for many years to come.

The culture embedded in the terms CERTs and SCIRTs say it all: emergency response, respectively incident response. It’s all about taking re-active action after the damage is done. It’s all about fixing the damage, as opposed to pro-active preventing that damage from happening in the first place.

CERTs and CSIRTs require a paradigm shift - The pure focus on technological risks only needs a proper shake-up. There are many more types of risk an organization is exposed to.

What You Don’t Know That You Don’t Know.

Throughout the organization a full awareness is needed that the baddies are at least 2 years ahead of the defenders. That those baddies only need to focus on that one single point of weakness, while defenders need to guard 360/360 - 360-degree, 24x7 and holistic. It is of crucial importance all employees, management and owners of any organization take responsibility – if you cross the street without looking, you know what may happen. If you are gullible in cyberspace, it’s nothing different than the real world.

of existing vulnerable Infrastructures and lifelines, it is absolutely essential to prepare a regional seismic disaster prevention plan to mitigate possible seismic damage in Tehran. This paper is an attempt to propose a seismic risk reduction program for Infrastructures and lifelines of the city. Keywords: Seismic Risk Reduction, damage, lifelines, Tehran Addressing risks of water stress in farming by smallholders: examples from India DAS GUPTA, Partha R Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland Presenting author: DAS GUPTA, Partha R [email protected] Water is most vital of all essential elements of agriculture. Only a third of India’s arable land is irrigated. Fluctuations in the monsoon rains endanger crops from drought, submergence, and pests and diseases. This is reflected in year to year fluctuations in production and productivity, particularly in eastern and central India where nearly half of India’s rice crop is grown, mainly rain-fed. Majority of the projects undertaken by Syngenta Foundation in India are situated in these regions. Whereas rice provides food to small and marginal farmers, for cash income they need to grow something of a higher value e.g. vegetables and fruits. Vegetables suit small farmers well and can fetch handsome returns from holdings as small as 1/10th of a hectare, provided the farmer has some access to irrigation. Otherwise, with higher cost of inputs, growing vegetables would be a greater risk than of growing rice. Therefore, as the Foundation embarked on promotion of vegetable cultivation, it also worked towards increasing water resources for irrigation. Farmers’ groups were assisted to harness rainwater and to a lesser extent tapping ground water, using low-cost methods and devices, e.g., rejuvenating community tanks, building low-cost check dams, small rainwater ponds, land shaping, and dug wells. Farmers’ groups were also facilitated to share the use of pumps for lifting water and low-cost drip systems for enhancing water use efficiency. Farmers were also assisted to save crops from diseases and pests using scientific techniques. The paper discusses how these interventions alleviated risks and enabled farmers to successfully grow vegetables and earn decent income from collective marketing of their produce. Environmental and ecological solutions 21st century technology DE LA POMERAI, Garry VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom Presenting author: DE LA POMERAI, Garry [email protected] Drought pacification rain making systems, marginal land crop production enhancement, and saltwater irrigation all were futuristic terminologies until the 21st century. Thanks to a group of scientists based within UAE many of today’s environmental and humanitarian challenges can now be addressed using state of the art molecular restructuring of water, with numerous benefits. A clear cloudless sky is truly a colossal storehouse for huge supplies of fresh water, although it is a mistake to preach that the atmospheric vapours are supposedly a distillate. According to reliable scientific findings the atmospheric water conversely holds a great

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Keywords: limb trauma, amputation, reconstructive surgery, earthquake, disaster One-year follow up of care received by a cohort of patients treated with limb amputation following the earthquake in Haiti DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (1); LE PERFF, Hervé (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (2); MULLER, Joel (2); KHALLAF, Nezha (2); SHANG, Lou (2) 1: ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of; 2: LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France Presenting author: BLACKWELL, Nikki [email protected] Severe limb trauma is common in earthquake survivors. Long term outcome assessment of patients rarely occurs. The aim is an assessment at 12-months of a cohort of people treated with limb amputation for injuries received in the Haiti earthquake.

Patients injured during the earthquake with post-traumatic limb amputation, were recruited by-phone from an existing patient database. Clinical and functional assessments were conducted by a doctor specialised in rehabilitation and a physiotherapist between January and March 2011. Data analysis consisted of cross and frequency tables, Pearson Chi2 and Student t-test for independence and means comparisons. A 2-year assessment will also occur.

Of 188 patients assessed: Mean age 28yr (2-66yr), 55 % (105) female, 21 % (40) upper limb amputees (ULA), 79 %(148) lower limb amputees (LLA). Amputation was the primary surgical treatment in 159 (85%) and was performed more than once in 35% (57). Stump revision rate was 24%(46/188).

92%(136) and 12%(5) of LLA and ULA patients received a prosthesis within a mean of 136 days (16-420 days) (CI 95% [123; 149]). 66%(88) of patients were satisfied with the prosthesis which was worn a mean of 9 hours per day (0-18 hours) (CI95%[8.5; 9.96]).

169/188(91%) patients received physiotherapy. 57%(106) had persistent pain, usually moderate (4.3, as a mean according to VAS), mainly at the stump (90; 90%); 79%(146) had phantom limb perception, not systematically associated with pain (58;40%), rarely (15/58,27%). 5%(9) of patients had skin erosions of the stump, 30%(55) local tenderness. 95%(142), 23%(35) and 68%(99) of the LLA were able to climb stairs, run and dance. 49%(89) and 23%(41) of the patients were satisfied or very satisfied with functional results.

Amputation is not a simple undertaking in the aftermath of disasters. Hospitalisation may be prolonged, second surgical interventions and complications are not uncommon and prolonged rehabilitation is required. Keywords: amputation, limb trauma, earthquake, reconstructive surgery Developing best practices for the resettlement of environmental migrants: the next step DES MARAIS, Eric Anthony

Holistic Risk Management can only be achieved once organizational security program is recognized as a benefit and a contributor to profit. The READ approach is designed to achieve such holistic Risk Awareness amongst all employees, management and business partners. Keywords: Risk Awareness, IT-Security, Industry risks, Organization Specific risks A comparison of functional outcomes at one year between two cohorts of patients with extremity limb trauma following the Haitian earthquake in 2010 DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (1); LE PERFF, Hervé (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (2); MULLER, Joel (2); KHALLAF, Nezha (2); SHANG, Lou (2) 1: ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of; 2: LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France Presenting author: BLACKWELL, Nikki [email protected] Many injured earthquake survivors have contaminated, open limb fractures, resource constraints compromise optimal care. Some advocate immediate amputation to treat haemorrhage and crush syndrome, citing the need for only basic equipment with short hospitalisation and recovery. Others promote limb preservation with reconstructive surgery, preventing disability and offering better functional outcomes. The feasibility of limb preservation in the emergency response phase is uncertain; a comparison of outcomes is needed.

This study aims to provide evidence to further this discussion.

Open prospective survey of Haitian earthquake victims after reconstructive surgery or amputation at 1 year and 2 years (on-going) with multi-dimensional evaluations. Data analysis employed conventional methods (p<0.05 (S*))

289 patients (188 amputees (A), 101 surgically reconstructed (LS)) were evaluated at 1 year. Demographics: female 58%, mean age 30 years, leg injury (69%). 47% had additional severe injuries (A:58%, LS:42%) (S*): fractures 61% (A:54%, LS:76%); soft tissue lesions: 21% (A:27%, LS:11%); open: 20% (A:21%, LS:18%), closed: 20% (A :47%, LS :5%), traumatic amputation (10%; A:15%) crush injury 12 (A:19%, LS:3%) and severe soft tissue damage 9% (A:10%, LS:7%) (S*). Mean hospitalisation was 56 days, prolonged stays (> 90 d) were more frequent in amputees (S*). 64% had persistent pain (A:78%; LS:57%)(S*); Satisfaction correlated with pain intensity. 50% of patients considered themselves “cured“ (A: 61%; LS: 31%)(S*). 100% of patients treated with a reconstructive approach would choose this management again. If an amputation was not clinically mandatory, 79% of amputees would prefer reconstructive treatment.

Humanitarian actors responding to disasters must take into account that limb trauma patients require prolonged follow-up. Given the duration of care necessary it is not always obligatory to provide ‘definitive care’ in the rudimentary conditions immediately after a catastrophe. The priority in the first days is thorough wound debridement and haemorrhage control, allowing time for specialised surgical teams and facilities to be established.

schemes, they preferred to have cover for property against natural disaster, illness, accidents, wage loss, disability, and death cover besides covering their spouse too. CARE worked with the insurance provider to design product based on the recommendations of the study. The product designed offers comprehensive risk cover to a family at low value premium, the risk covered are accidents related hospitalization, illness, wage loss, death, disability and cover for huts against natural disaster and accidents. The project so far distributed 345,000 insurance plans and the claim experience was fairly good; project helped 16,468 households seek claims worth of over 950,000 USD. The claim experience demonstrates relevance of insurance services to low income households. Keywords: Micro insurance, risk reduction

Integrating science with practice to advocate tsunami risk reduction interventions DI MAURO, Manuela (1); GRIFFIN, Jonathan (2); WIBOWO, Agus (3); TUCKER, Brian (4); MEGAWATI, Kusnowidjaja (1,5) 1: Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; 2: Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, Indonesia; 3: Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB), Indonesia; 4: GeoHazards International, California; 5: Civil and Environmental Ingeneering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Presenting author: DI MAURO, Manuela [email protected] Integration between research and practice, partnerships among experts and decision makers are among the priorities of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. This paper describes a ‘success story’ demonstrating how collaboration among research and practitioners can produce high-quality science targeted to disaster risk reduction, providing the government with strong basis for decision making.

The Sunda Megathrust is a major fault running along a large part of Indonesia and was the source of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Evidence shows that an earthquake of magnitude 8.9-9 is likely along the Sunda Megathrust within the next few decades. This can generate a tsunami that would inundate Padang, West Sumatra, where c. 900,000 people live, reaching the city in less than 30 minutes. During the April 11 2012 earthquake, which did not generate a large tsunami, the warning was disseminated 30 minutes after the earthquake. The roads were gridlocked by traffic jams, trapping people for hours.

In response to this event, the Indonesian Government tasked the Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) to develop a Master Plan for managing Indonesia’s tsunami risk. This was seen by the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, the Earth Observatory of Singapore and GeoHazards International as a unique opportunity to join efforts and support BNPB. Specifically to provide rigorous evidence for inclusion of vertical evacuation structures in Indonesia’s tsunami management strategy, paying particular attention to the visualisation of the outcomes targeted for communication to specific Government audiences.

This paper aims to: provide examples of interventions for

University of Denver, United States of America Presenting author: DES MARAIS, Eric Anthony [email protected] It is expected that climate change will result in increased environmental degradation, which will in turn precipitate an increase in migration. While most natural disasters result in temporary displacement, increased desertification, rising sea levels, and increased flooding will likely correlate to increased permanent migration. In these cases, migration should be viewed as an adaptive response, to be facilitated with careful planning. However, few countries have engaged in any sort of planning for the permanent resettlement of people displaced by disaster. Since hazard resettlement has the potential to marginalize environmental migrants (especially vulnerable populations such as women, children, and older adults), resettlement planning and implementation must incorporate practices that empower these populations. This presentation seeks to first highlight important examples that illustrate the difficulties of resettlement. This will be followed by a discussion of what might be included in a best practice framework for resettlement. According to the most recent IPCC Climate Change Report, a key to success is a focus on local level adaptation that involves community stakeholders in the planning and decision-making process. Therefore the framework will identify how to involve community members in various stages of plan development including: the assessment of risk and resilience for their community; the assessment of permanent migration as a potential adaptation for their community; the identification of possible locations for resettlement; the assessment of their comparative advantage in their new communities; and collaborative exchanges with their potential hosts. The presentation will conclude with a discussion of areas for research that would help inform the development of best practices for resettlement.Keywords: Climates of Migration Bundling of risks for disaster proofing DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan CARE, India, Republic of Presenting author: DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan [email protected] In India, insurance providers traditionally focused on either offering low cost products for covering insignificant risk events or unaffordable products for high value cover in rural areas. CARE as part of its Insure Lives and Livelihoods project, introduced micro insurance services in 2006 as part of long range risk reduction strategy in coastal districts of Tamil Nadu affected by 2004 Tsunami in collaboration with private insurance providers. CARE commissioned a risk assessment study through an external agency to understand the risk needs of low income communities, assessing premium capacities of low income households, most preferred mode of premium payment and most favoured channel partner for distribution and defining benefits of compensation. The study also revealed several challenges that needs to be overcome before gaining rightful place for micro insurance services in low income households and on such major challenge was bundling of products. The participants of the study opined that they need a product that can cover their basic risks. Majority of the people in coastal areas employed in informal economy of those most of them landless labourers in the absence of formal social security

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Weather aware, climate prepared. DONOVAN, Tim; BUTCHER, Tom Met Office, United Kingdom Presenting author: DONOVAN, Tim [email protected] The UK Met Office has been involved in understanding and the management of weather and climate risks for over 150 years. Through its public weather service it has a key role in forecasting and communicating information about severe weather events to the public and community responders. In addition, it supports national and local government agencies plan for climate change risks. Similar work is also carried out on an international scale. The UK Met Office works in partnership with National Meteorological Services in developing countries to increase capacity to provide weather and climate services in order to reduce the impacts of natural disasters on the vulnerable and to increase community resilience to the impacts of climate change. Weather and climate services extend across a wide range of timescales: from providing short range warnings on the progression of a tropical cyclone, advice on likelihood of drought seasons ahead, to providing analysis on the changing risks of disasters over the next century. The presentation will focus on examples of how our partnerships deliver tailored services to vulnerable communities that allow them to make smarter decisions and add real value to people's lives. Keywords: Weather, climate, science, hazrad, warning. Underpinning sustainability with advanced and visual analytics within the intelligent operations center DONOVANG-KUHLISCH, Margarete Charlotte (1); SMALL, Michael Kenneth (2) 1: IBM Deutschland GmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of; 2: IBM Middle East, United Arabian Emirates Presenting author: DONOVANG-KUHLISCH, Margarete Charlotte [email protected] Information superiority is one of the primary issues for Network Enabled Capabilities (NEC) in future crisis management operations that will have to operate in an environment of efficient collaboration and informed decision making in a value network. Exploiting the network-enabled information flows turns out to be the only effective way to meet the challenges and threats we face in this modern, interconnected world. Enhanced inter-agency and inter-company communication and collaboration has been defined as the capability to deliver information superiority when required to enable agile and informed decision making to underpin effects-based operations: delivering the right effect, at the right time, to achieve the outcome required.

Challenges and threats in our modern world are global and multi-faceted requiring complex responses: governments and corporations buoyed by the realization that the interests of both are mutually engage, are pursuing joint corporate social responsibility to make life and business conduct safe and sustainable. One outcome is increasing openness: organisations increasingly publish data and knowledge in open formats and open spaces and (others) provide tools to gain insight from this open and accessible data. Network enablement increases inclusion and participation of people in all domains of private and public life; internet-enabled social networking contributes to data available for analysis and

tsunami risk reduction; disseminate further the issue faced by the West-Sumatran communities; and demonstrate the effectiveness and necessity of integrating the work of scientists, government and international organisations. Through this collaboration, the scientific message has been targeted to the needs of policy makers, providing them with rigorous evidence to support decision making. Keywords: disaster risk reduction, tsunami risk, government, integrated research, collaborative research A regional multi-risk assessment approach to support the definition public mitigation strategies DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); BULDRINI, Marco (2); OLIVERI, Stefano (3); SEMINATI, Paolo (3); FRATTINI, Paolo (4) 1: RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of; 2: NIER Ingegneria, Italy; 3: Ecometrics Srl, Italy; 4: Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Universit`a degli Studi di Milano Bicocca, Milano, Italy Presenting author: DIMAURO, Carmelo [email protected] In order to define mitigation strategies, the regional public administrations in charge of prevention policies have to manage large territories characterized by multiple types of risks, i.e. natural and technological risks. They need to identify scientifically sound solutions, based on a compromise between the conflicting objectives of the relevant stakeholders. Natural and technological risks are characterized by different phenomenology, frequency of occurrence, magnitude of impact. They also present different level of acceptability and perception among stakeholders. Therefore, multi-risk assessment is an innovative approach for identifying the most critical areas of a region and can support public authorities in defining and prioritising mitigation and emergency management strategies.

Multi-risk approach poses many challenges because it requires combining a large amount of information about the hazards, the exposed targets and the related vulnerability values. The systematic and coherent interpretation of such information by the decision-makers is not simple, in particular when this information supports a decision-making process involving many stakeholders. Hence, it is particularly interesting and effective to have a tool that facilitates the integration of the information and the communication to and among stakeholders. Decision-making in this field is an iterative cognitive process and, for this reason, decision support applications must be built in a manner that permits changes to occur easily and quickly, without losing in accuracy of reference information. This improves the efficiency of the negotiation process allowing stakeholders to screen and to focus on the relevant dimension of the problem of concern.

The conference contribution will report the results of a public programme aiming at defining multi-risk mitigation plans in Italy and will illustrate the main functionality of the related GIS-based decision support system for defining mitigation strategies. In particular, the focus will be laid on how such an approach meets the requirements of the risk management decision process. Keywords: Multi-risk assessment, decision-making process, mitigation strategies, risk management

in Italy and the spread of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in Europe. The EU-funded project ‘Biology and control of vector-borne infections – EDENext’ is dedicated to these diseases that are transmitted by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks etc. Within EDENext a holistic, transdisciplinary public health approach towards vector-borne diseases was developed. It defines the term “public health” in the scope of this project and suggests a reconceptualisation of public health by adapting the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) for this purpose. The IRGC approach is distinguished from more classical risk governance approaches, inter alia, by an explicit inclusion of a systematic concern assessment (of public concerns and perceptions) as the other part of risk appraisal that is scientific risk assessment. This innovative new risk governance approach towards public health will be introduced and exemplified by a rodent-borne transmitted Hanta virus disease in Germany. First results of a risk perception and risk communication study based on in-depth interviews with risk management and relevant stakeholders as well as focus-group research with the general public in endemic regions in Germany will be shown. Keywords: Risk governance, public health, vector-borne diseases, risk perception, risk communication Taking into account socio-cultural factors to improve alerting strategies DRESSEL, Kerstin; PFEIL, Patricia sine Institut gGmbH Presenting author: DRESSEL, Kerstin [email protected] Socio-cultural factors, such as age, sex, area of living, previous disaster experience or migration background – to name just a few of the most important ones – have a fundamental influence on the way people perceive and cope with risks and disasters. Meaningful alerting requires taking into account such socio-cultural factors in order to be effective and to reach as most people as possible and, consequently in the hope, to avoid as many casualties as possible. One aspect of the EC-funded project OPTI-ALERT (www.opti-alert.eu) addresses questions such as how different types of risks (industrial risks as well as severe weather conditions) are perceived in different social-cultural settings in seven examined countries. The explorative study is based upon in-depth interviews with experts of crisis management and crisis communication, biographical interviews with individuals with disaster experience and focus-group interviews conducted. All three qualitative methods have been applied in the following countries: Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden. The analysis of the material focused upon differences in risk perception, risk knowledge, coping strategies and information behavior and expectations (including new media). Findings include the following: the choice of the alerting tool should correlate with the age of the recipients; the alert message should correlate with the area of living; and the choice of the sender of the alerting should correlate with the respective national context. For improvements in alerting strategies, crisis management should be aware of these important correlations.

better understanding of human factors.

This case study summarizes technology-based social responsibility trends and illustrates how emerging technologies like visual analytics of spatio-temporal data can achieve semantic interoperability and transparency within large amounts of data linked through ontologies and common metadata models. Keywords: Smarter Planet, Advanced and Visual Analytics, Spatio-Temporal Data, Open Data, Corporate Social Responsibility, Critical Infrastructure Protection Early detection, surveillance of wildfires and the integration into fire management systems DREIBACH, Joachim Franz Fire Watch international AG, Switzerland Presenting author: DREIBACH, Joachim Franz [email protected] During the last years, worldwide more and more optical systems (video based) are installed for the detection and surveillance of forest fires. The precocious detection of wildfires, determining their precise location, and the rapid alert of intervention teams all play major roles in reducing the size and extent of fires and therefore limiting their effect and damage. The evaluation of the yearly fire reports provides figures, which do not show much positive results and improvements to areas operating such technologies. No reduction of the average annual burned areas monitored by video systems. On the opposite, the French Center of Research and Experience has been observing over the past 10 years a reduction of the average annual burned area by 50% while at the same time the average temperature has been rising slightly and forest are increasingly dry with rain become more and more scarce. In this means, there seems to be a difference between the capability of early detection and simply a way for visual monitoring of a starting fire. There are actually no common agreed specifications or parameters defined to qualify a optical detection system for a qualified detection system or to classify a technical solution to a monitoring system. The presentation shows capabilities of different, common used technologies for wildfire surveillance and successfully integrated solutions for early detection and integration into fire management procedures. And, after 10 years of evaluation, such long term results may be used to establish first parameters and procedures for a international standardisation of such technology. Keywords: Early Detection, Fire, Surveilance, Standardisation, Management A new public health concept for risk governance of vector-borne infections DRESSEL, Kerstin Maja; SCHUELE, Steffen sine-Institut gGmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: DRESSEL, Kerstin Maja [email protected] Due to environmental and socio-economic changes, emerging diseases with zoonotic potential will be an increasing challenge for public health in Europe. The risks and the consequences triggered by so-called vector-borne diseases for public health in Europe are just starting to emerge in public awareness. This is clearly shown by recent events such as Chikungunya

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biggest accidental spills in the period from 1974 to 2010 occurred on the exploration drill rigs Deepwater Horizon and Ixtoc I (1979, GOM, Mexico, 480000 t), accounting for 11.4% of total spill volume of accidental (≥ 200 t) spills. This high contribution of single events to the total spill volume underlines the need to analyze the risk of such rare but very severe events. The quantification of this risk is particularly important in view of the rapid increase in deep (> 305 m depth) and ultra-deep (> 1524 m) offshore drilling, where both a geographical expansion as well as a trend towards drilling at ever greater depths can be seen over the last decade.

Based on comprehensive global data of oil spills since 1974, we estimate the expected return frequencies of such very severe oil spill events using extreme value statistics and find a return frequency of a DWH sized spill of less than two decades worldwide at current production levels.

We also compare the risk of oil spills from offshore drilling with the risk of spills throughout the entire oil chain, separately for different infrastructures such as pipelines, storage and processing facilities, and tanker transport. Data is extracted from our uniquely comprehensive global Energy Related Severe Accident database (ENSAD) that was established at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in the 1990s. Keywords: Oil Spills, Risk, Extreme Events, Integrative risk management EGGENBERGER, René armasuisse, Switzerland Presenting author: EGGENBERGER, René [email protected] Natural and manmade catastrophes are increasingly large scale and often affect major parts of our multilingual and intercultural societies. Authorities and citizens are facing threats that are new and fuzzy in quality an of impact. One approach to deal with uncertainty and complexity is to build up a resilient society. Timely and professional risk communication that considers linguistic and cultural aspects and the exploitation of the potential of social media as well are key towards a more resilient society. There is still a huge unexploited potential to set free by using social media for risk and crisis communication. Processing satellite imagery for mapping physical exposure globally EHRLICH, Daniele; HALKIA, Stamatia; KEMPER, Thomas; PESARESI, Martino; SOILLE, Pierre Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: EHRLICH, Daniele [email protected] Disaster risk models require exposure and hazard information. Physical exposure – information on villages, towns, cities and metropolitans areas - is still not available in a standardized form for local to national assessment, for properly quantifying disaster hotspots globally, or for between countries risk comparisons. The Global Exposure Database for Global Earthquake Model is the first initiative that addresses the systematic collection and population of a global exposure database. That database also needs to be populated. A potential source for up to date exposure

A disaster management framework for coping with acts of extreme violence in school settings: a field study DUMITRIU, Camelia (1); HUTU, Carmen Aida (2) 1: Université du Québec À Montréal (Quebec University at Montreal) UQAM, Canada; 2: Gh. ASACHI University, Iasi, Romania Presenting author: DUMITRIU, Camelia [email protected] The evolving threat to school safety caused by acts of extreme violence is explicitly addressed by the “Standard for Natural and Man-Made Hazards to Higher Education Institutions” (ANSI, 2010). School violence has become a “global phenomenon that affects one of the core institutions of modern society […] in virtually all nation-states” (Akiba et al., 2002). This study presents the results of an interdisciplinary three-year research project on disaster management planning for coping with acts of extreme violence in schools. The project was funded by the SSH Research Council of Canada and carried out by an academic team from UQAM (Montreal School of Business) in collaboration with researchers from six countries.

We collected data in six countries on four continents and interviewed relevant stakeholders (regarding the event/school/community/national educational system) in ten schools that had experienced an act of extreme violence (a multiple-victim event). We adapted and then used the ‟Pressure and Release” and ‟Triangle of Risk” models to analyze the preparedness action carried out by the selected organizations, their coping capacity, and their response actions.

We identified: (a) eight root causes and dynamic pressures that can increase the vulnerability of the educational system to man-made hazards and its susceptibility to the impact of these hazards, (b) the main deficiencies in preparedness, and (c) the challenges raised by the intervention process and the disaster recovery stage.

A framework for disaster management planning was developed to integrate these findings.

Our results support the United Nations’ findings (A Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2004) and will help policymakers and educational institutions to enhance institutional resilience by (a) dealing proactively and effectively with the new emerging risks that are related to school violence, and (b) improving the process of disaster risk management at each stage of the “risk cycle” (prevention, intervention and recovery). Keywords: disaster risk management, educational system, school violence, institutional resilience, man-made threat Risk of large oil spills: A statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deep Water Horizon ECKLE, Petrissa; BURGHERR, Peter; MICHAUX, Edouard Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland Presenting author: ECKLE, Petrissa [email protected] Following the explosion of the exploration drill rig Deep Water Horizon (DWH) in April 2010 that killed eleven workers, 670000 tons of oil were spilled in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). This event was a reminder of the inherent risk of large spills in oil production and transport. The two

has been begun depending what we have learnt from the past disasters in Turkey and all over the world. Therefore, ISMEP is promoted as an outstanding model for the design and implementation of other national and international projects and activities in the field of disaster risk mitigation. Risk assessment of the buried fuel pipelines in the City of Kermanshah, Iran ESKANDARI, Mohammad; SADEGHI KOMJANI, Niloofar; MOGHIMI, Sanam Young researchers Club, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: SADEGHI KOMJANI, Niloofar [email protected] Iran is one of the most seismically active countries in the world, being crossed by several major fault lines that cover at least 90% of the country. As a result, earthquakes in Iran occur often and are destructive. Lifelines such as fuel pipeline systems are geographically dispersed over broad areas, and are exposed to a wide range of seismic and geotechnical hazards, community uses, and interactions with other sectors of the built environment. This paper, in respect of damage analysis, concentrates on the assessment of fuel pipeline systems buried underneath the city of Kermanshah, leakage and failure in pipelines and post-earthquake fires. Assessment of the seismic damage to buried fuel pipelines of Kermanshah is calculated for three probable scenario earthquakes in the study area. After hazard analyze, using the repair rate relations, damage to pipelines is estimated. All the steps of damage assessment for buried pipelines were written in a GIS environment. Finally, the probability distribution function for the area, the population and the number of houses exposed to fire and explosion after the earthquake are calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method through numerous repetitions (10,000 times). Finally two proposed hardening strategies for fire damage reduction in the Kermanshah area are investigated in the second stage and the damage is investigated by repeating the process. Keywords: Buried Fuel Pipelines, failure, earthquake, Explosion, hardening Strategy Understanding risk communication: the acceptability of risk communication in a multilingual Europe ESMAIL, Zarah Bergische Universität Wuppertal Presenting author: ESMAIL, Zarah [email protected] In 2012 CBRN catastrophes have become an even bigger threat to our society. It has therefore become increasingly important to communicate possible risks in this context more effectively and sufficiently in order to better inform citizens of such threats. In our societies today, we have an increase of individuals and groups that use varying linguistic codes and practices of communication. Such codes and practices are bound to increase and become even more complex as countries continue to connect and work together. It is based on these linguistic practices and the corresponding reference frameworks that information is understood and categorized. The English language remains to be important to bridge the gap between the various mentalities (cultural based mentalities, expert vs. lay person mentality etc.) present in risk communication. Risk communication is therefore dependent

information is provided by the large volume of satellite imagery available in image archives that are continuously updated. Medium scale and very fine scale satellite imagery is collected by space agencies and increasingly by private satellite operators. These data awaits now to be processed into exposure information that can be used within disaster risk models. That conversion from imagery displaying the surface of the Earth into human settlement layers and then exposure parameters to be used in risk models is underway. However, image processing information technology infrastructure is not typically designed to process massive volume of data covering countries and continents. New initiatives like the Global Human Settlement Layer analysis system developed at the Joint Research Centre and presented herein aims to analyze human settlements globally. The system can process the gigantic data volume required to cover continents or even the entirety of the Earth’s land masses. The presentations will illustrate examples of human settlement layers to be used as proxy variables for exposure. In particular, the presentation will show example of continental wide human settlement mapping, on systematic comparison of largest metropolitan areas, on changes in the extent of human settlement in time, and will briefly illustrate the complexity of human settlements as seen from very detailed satellite imagery. Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) ELGIN, K. Gokhan Istanbul Project Coordination Unit, Istanbul Governorship Presenting author: ELGIN, K. Gokhan [email protected] Istanbul is located in seismic-prone area close to the North Anatolian Fault that makes it highly vulnerable to earthquakes when it is combined with its high population and its commercial and industrial densities. Considering the probability in the coming years that a major earthquake in Turkey is likely to bring mass destruction to the physical environment and the economic vitality along with the high risk of death toll, there is an urgent need to shift the existing faith-oriented, reactive, and recovery based policies into proactive, mitigation-oriented and preventive approaches.

The Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation Project (ISMEP), financed by the World Bank and European Investment Bank, Council of Europe Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, is a significant attempt in order to improve the city of Istanbul's preparedness for a potential earthquake by implementing the essential principles of comprehensive disaster management

ISMEP Project consists of three components: (A) improving the institutional and technical capacity for disaster management and emergency response, (B) reduction of seismic risk for critical public buildings and (C) supporting measures for better enforcement of building codes and land use plans. Supervision and the realization of the activities within the scope of the project are conducted by Istanbul Project Coordination Unit under the roof of Governorship of Istanbul. In order to raise awareness and preparedness level, several communication and training programs are being conducted with Istanbul community. Significant progress

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vulnerable to threats from both natural hazards and terrorism. Urbanization is also a complex dynamic process playing out over multiple scales of space and time. Virtually all of the world’s future population growth is predicted to take place in cities and their urban landscapes – the UN estimates a global increase from the current 2.9 billion urban residents to a staggering 5.0 billion by 2030.

Local resiliency with regard to disasters means that a locale is able to withstand an extreme natural event without suffering devastating losses, damage, diminished productivity, or quality of life and without a large amount of assistance from outside the community. Resilience is defined as “the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks”.

Vulnerability is the flip side of resilience: when a social or ecological system loses resilience it becomes vulnerable to change that previously could be absorbed. For resilience, we need to start not with what’s missing but whit what’s already there.

At this article is tried to determine different conceptual models and frameworks of resilient communities. We also compare these models and frameworks and consider their components and dimensions. Then, we consider social and cultural dimensions and components of resilience in these models and then define proper dimension of social and cultural resilience in Islamic Cities. Keywords: Resilient cities, Disaster management, Vulnerability, Urban Areas, Islamic cities. Vulnerability assessment of urban building stock: a hierarchic approach FERREIRA, Tiago (1); VICENTE, Romeu (1); VARUM, Humberto (1); MENDES DA SILVA, J.A.R. (2); COSTA, Aníbal (1) 1: University of Aveiro, Portugal; 2: University of Coimbra, Portugal Presenting author: VICENTE, Romeu [email protected] In the last decades the evaluation of the seismic risk, just as other natural phenomenon’s, are of rising concern, considered essential in the activity and definition of strategy planning and urban management. The evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of the existent building stock in the perspective of the seismic risk mitigation should not be placed only in relation to the isolated buildings of relevant historical and cultural importance, but also, in relation to the agglomerate of buildings in urban centres. The chronological construction process frequently results in characteristic heterogeneity of masonry and wall connection quality. In addition, buildings do not constitute independent units given that they share the mid-walls with adjacent buildings and the façade walls are aligned. This way, as post-seismic observations proved, buildings do not have an independent structural behaviour, but they interact amongst themselves, mainly for horizontal actions and so the structural performance should be studied at the level of the aggregate and not only for each isolated building. In most cases, for masonry structures there is no need for sophisticated dynamic analyses for seismic

on the better understanding of these socio-linguistic factors. Until now, the importance of such socio-linguistic factors has not been analyzed sufficiently enough in risk communication research. This presentation aims to explore socio-linguistic factors as influences on risk communication and highlight the importance of a more in-depth analysis of such factors for a more effective and citizen oriented risk communication. A preliminary study of flash flood in Hunan Province, China - spatio-temporal characteristics, trends and risk management FANG, Jian; DU, Juan; XU, Wei; SHI, Peijun Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: FANG, Jian [email protected] Flood risk management has always been a great concern in China and huge resources has been invested on the construction of flood-defending systems. After decade years of continuous efforts, most of the major rivers in China have been effectively regulated and the threat from traditional river flooding has been greatly reduced. While as a result of increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events and high vulnerability of small catchments in mountainous area, flash flood has become more and more severe and been the most lethal type of flood. According to statistics, from 2000 to 2009 annual deaths caused by flash flood accounted for about 80% of total flood-related deaths in China. Hunan Province, located in Central China, is characterized with mountainous areas in the south and southwest parts and intensive precipitation in summer due to the east Asian monsoon and typhoon system. As a result, Hunan is highly exposed and vulnerable to flash flood with hundreds of deaths and millions RMB Yuan of losses every year. It is urgent to fully investigate flash flood risk in Hunan Province and take effective measures to minimize the loss. This study investigates the spatio-temporal variation of flash flood in Hunan Province with the dataset of flash flood events and losses from local bureau of civil affairs to indicate the most vulnerable place and time to flash flood. Then meteorological data associated with flash flood events are analyzed to construct the probability distribution of precipitation triggering the hazard. Statistical methods are used to detect the trend of precipitation in the season of flash flood, and based on the distribution of threshold precipitation the risk of flash flood is assessed. Finally, we discuss alternative risk management strategies of flash flood in Hunan Province, highlighting the importance of non-structural measures. Keywords: flash flood, risk management, climate change, China Considering social and cultural dimension of resilient cities FARZAD BEHTASH, Mohammad Reza (1); KEYNEJHAD, Mohammad Ali (2); PIRBABAEI, Mohammad Taghi (3); AGHABABAEI, Mohammad Taghi (4) 1: Tabriz Islamic Art University - Research & Planning Center of Tehran Municipality, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Tabriz Islamic Art University; 3: Tabriz Islamic Art University; 4: Research & Planning Center of Tehran Municipality Presenting author: FARZAD BEHTASH, Mohammad Reza [email protected] Cities are complex and interdependent systems, extremely

of the preparation of trained personnel will be evaluated in a pilot study. The information from the pilot study will serve to validate the Curriculum and provide feedback.Keywords: rescue forces, education, catastrophes, terrorist attacks The impact of uncertainties and risks on cooperation and conflict in transboundary water management FISCHHENDLER, Itay hebrew university, Israel, State of Presenting author: FISCHHENDLER, Itay [email protected] The effect of uncertainty and risk itself on cooperation between the partners sharing the natural resources remains unknown. Reasonable theoretical arguments can be put forward to suggest that risk may strengthen cooperation between partners, as cooperation is necessary to reduce the uncertainty, develop effective mitigation policies and infrastructure, and achieve economies of scale. Alternatively, risk may serve as a cause of friction between the different parties, since uncertainty, and the mechanisms available for dealing with it, may aggravate the asymmetries between the sides in terms of power, access to information, etc. Hence we examine whether risk and uncertainties in a transboundary setting promote or impede cooperation. Taking Arab-Israeli water agreements and subsequent negotiations as a case study, this work identifies which risk and uncertainties policymakers address collectively, which they address unilaterally, and which they do not address at all. We then evaluate their effect on potential conflict and cooperation.

It seems that social uncertainties and risks around interpretation of existing data dominates the water negotiations rather then technical or physical risks and uncertainties around the need to generate new knowledge. The risks are often situated outside the water ream and tend to detrimentally affect the chances to solve water issues. Most of the indicators used to assess the affect of risk indicatives that although partners often address uncertainties in a cooperative manner, the mechanisms used to address them tend to become a focal point for frication. Many of these mechanisms are procedural rather then clear and defined rules or outcomes. This open- end approach creates its own risks as if and how they will be able to clarify the uncertainties remains unknown.Keywords: water, risk, conflicts Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe: the MATRIX project FLEMING, Kevin Michael German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: FLEMING, Kevin Michael [email protected] Although many parts of Europe are under threat from a variety of natural hazards, scientists, engineers and civil protection and disaster management authorities usually treat them and the resulting consequences individually. This is despite the frequent spatial and temporal interactions between them, leading to scenarios where the total negative consequences may be greater than the sum of their parts. In addition, there is the range of spatial and temporal scales that natural hazards

resistance verification or vulnerability assessment. This is even more relevant when an assessment at the level of a city centre is pursued. In this work, the results of evaluation of the vulnerability will be presented in accordance to three proposed methodologies based on a vulnerability index that consequently allows the evaluation of damage and creation of loss scenarios (economical and human) not only at the level of the building and its façade walls but also at the level of the aggregates. It will be discussed and evaluated the application of the referred methodologies and its integration in an SIG platform. Keywords: Seismic risk, vulnerability, aggregates, façade walls, damage scenarios

The DITAC Project - Development of a Disaster Training curriculum (DITAC) FISCHER, Philipp Department of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Germany Presenting author: FISCHER, Philipp [email protected] Establishing a curricular training on how to respond to an international crisis and making it accessible to pertinent organizations throughout the EU will be a first step towards building a European Emergency Response Centre.

The DITAC Project will:

• analyse concepts, methods, and doctrines of crisis response and identify the relevant European competences of crisis management,• analyse existing initiatives to generate curricula for crisis management,• identify the requirements of the local actors in crisis management education,• identify the needs of relevant actors and the resulting stakeholder requirements for significant improvement of trainings in international disaster response and crisis management,• develop a didactic concept to transmit common standards for crisis management education, using state of the art methods for teaching and training,• organise a pilot study course for suitable participants from European countries,• develop an evaluation tool for the course.

The DITAC Project proposes to develop a holistic Training Curriculum for first responders and strategic crisis managers dealing with international crises. The DITAC Curriculum will address the key challenges for the management of disaster incidents.

The Curriculum will improve the preparedness and availability of trained personnel by providing a common language, common objectives and common tools leading to better results in the protection and assistance of people confronted with large-scale crises.

The DITAC Project will use open sources for dissemination during the project period in order to get continuous feedbacks, and will organise public meetings and congresses to reach a consensus about the Curriculum’s content. The improvement

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simulate different investments impact and to set quantifiable objectives and KPI’s in terms of risk level reduction. An application concerning the previous cited methodologies is also illustrated in the article. In particular, costs benefits of both ISORISKTM mapping and CITRANTM curves deriving from specific recommendation implementation will be outlined. The development of new means of communication and synthesis, outlined in the article, underlines on one hand how much it is important to use qualitative tools for different risks analysis and, on the other one, the need for new synthesis and reporting methods for the risk management process.

Natural disaster mitigation and earth observations: a Group on Earth Observations perspective. GAETANI, Francesco; CRIPE, Douglas GEO Group on Earth Observations, Switzerland Presenting author: GAETANI, Francesco [email protected] The presentation will provide an overview of key drivers as well as technical and scientific trends in the Societal Benefit Areas of Disasters and Water (including Flood and Droughts) of the Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS), being developed by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). Specific emphasis will be given to the role of Earth observations (EO) in achieving the related GEOSS Strategic targets, through activities of the GEO 2012-2015 Work Plan.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) can be achieved if science is successful in providing society with clear and detailed information on the potential risk it is facing. In fact, objective and reliable information on hazards, vulnerability and exposure, presented through an analysis of expected impacts for given Risk Scenarios, is instrumental for triggering and, more importantly, sustaining the political will and economic strength needed to achieve adaptation and mitigation. In this framework, EO have the powerful capacity to represent and describe complex dynamics and processes by means of detailed, objective and up to date risk assessment maps. Additionally, EO have an important role to play in supporting the scientific community through the development of large-area (seismic, landslides, flooding, and wildfire) vulnerability modeling and mapping.

A further key role of EO is in dynamic risk assessment, especially when properly assimilated in mathematical models or systems, which can in turn be used to feed the Early Warning operational chain. Finally, in real-time emergency and response phases EO from geostationary and low earth orbit satellites can be coupled with meteorological forecasts and observations to track/monitor events, measure or evaluate their magnitude and expected impacts and, most importantly, define meaningful and near real time event Scenarios, which can support decision makers in managing resources and organizing emergency plans. Keywords: Earth Observations, meteorological models, risk assessment, global coordination, data sharing

occur over, while at the same time being affected by different sources of uncertainty. As a consequence of these issues, the European Union under its FP7 program is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry. MATRIX is endeavouring to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and the resulting risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work is proceeding from an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, examining cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, a series of test cases (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies) and the development of an IT platform that will allow the methods developed to be evaluated against multi-type scenarios inferred for the test cases, and a generic tool for sensitivity studies. The project is also interacting with national and international platforms for disaster reduction to disseminate its findings and to gain insight to the needs of potential end users. MATRIX began in October, 2010, and will continue until September, 2013. Risk engineering decision tools for risk management support FORTE, Marcello; SALVADOR, Emanuele AXA Matrix Risk Consultants, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: FORTE, Marcello [email protected] The article introduces two methodologies with associated tools, expressly developed by AXA MATRIX to support Risk Managers in the visualization and monitoring processes of industrial plants risks.

These tools allow conducting impact of investments for risk mitigation, thus achieving measurable targets and KPI’s in terms of risk level reduction. The tools described in the article are the ISORISKTM, a risk mapping methodology of a given number of assessed plants, and CITRANTM (Critical Investment To Reach Acceptable Normal Loss Expectancy), for the display of the impact of investments on the protection/ prevention risk level for each plant.

ISORISKTM allows highlighting both the maximum exposure (peak risk) and the harmful events occurrence probability (“Vulnerability”). The methodology is based both on Vulnerability assessment (evaluation of the likelihood that some harmful events may occur) and Severity assessment (quantification of loss expectancy taking into account existing means of prevention and protection).

CITRANTM curves allow both to highlight the recommendations needed to reduce the highest exposures to set levels (and their relative cost) and their impact on global risk value.

By combining these tools, the article shows how it is possible both to quantify the risk level related to a population of sites, to

The issue of preserving and protecting infrastructures is a priority for modern societies and economies. In the last decade, Critical Infrastructure Protection has been at the spotlight of European policies. Several initiatives have been undertaken within the framework of the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP), the multi annual program elaborated in 2006 by European Commission. The legislative instrument of EPCIP is the European Council Directive 2008/114/EC on the identification and designation of European Critical Infrastructure (ECI) and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Within this framework JRC has a central role to provide technical support to the policy makers (Commission DGs). Proposing an analysis framework for ECIs, with the objective of providing tools primarily for decision makers and CI operators is clearly a task that clearly fits to the role of JRC. Harmonization of seismic hazard assessment: the SHARE example GIARDINI, Domenico eth Zurich, Switzerland Presenting author: GIARDINI, Domenico [email protected] Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) characterizes the best available knowledge on the seismic hazard, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Several large scale projects have been launched aiming to harmonize PSHA standards around the globe. The EC-FP7 project SHARE (www.share-eu.org) released a community-based probabilistic time-independent hazard model for the Euro- Mediterranean region in 2012 and contributes its results to the Global Earthquake Model (GEM, www.globalquakemodel.org), a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the OECD-GSF. SHARE inherited knowledge from national, regional and site-specific PSHAs and strived to harmonize data and process across the whole Europe, introducing new various novel procedures, which build the new SHA reference: i) the new historical and instrumental seismic catalogue stems from a consensus approach; ii) a single database of active faults has been constructed merging the national contributions with rigorous common standards, established by the GEM Faulted Earth global project; iii) state-of-the-art approaches to assess sources of uncertainties were introduced in building the model logic-tree, including area-source, kernel-smoothed seismicity, fault-based and hybrid approaches; iv) the design of the GMPE logic-tree was achieved for the first time by a rigorous process of expert elicitation, using standards developed in the nuclear industry; v) the SHARE-PSHA comprises results for various return periods of engineering interest and various ground motion intensity measures (PGA, spectral accelerations at various periods) as well as uniform hazard spectra and disaggregation results for key locations; vi) a standardized computational framework has been established with GEM, to allow tracking and reproducing of all SHA steps and results. SHARE is a procedural example on how to perform a regional scale PSHA addressing diverse demands from the general public, seismologists, engineers and decision makers.

Building a global exposure database GAMBA, Paolo (1); CROWLEY, Helen (2); KELLER, Nicole (2) 1: Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell'Informazione, University of Pavia, Italy; 2: GEM Foundation, Italy Presenting author: KELLER, Nicole [email protected] The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a global collaborative effort to provide organisations and people with open tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. Leading science is leveraged for the benefit of society; hundreds of individuals and organisations are working together through global projects and regional programmes to develop open-source tools, global datasets and best practices that follow the state-of-the-art in science on seismic hazard and risk. All contributions are integrated into a comprehensive platform (OpenQuake) that will become available in 2014.

High-resolution and standardized exposure data is key to quantifying risk. One of the global projects that is currently carried out focuses on development of a global exposure database (GED); an open unified database that contains the data needed to estimate damage to buildings, (critical) infrastructure and human casualties, and for cost-benefit and other analyses that support decisions on risk mitigation, such as building retrofitting. To ensure that data can be used for risk assessment in the same manner around the globe, the GED4GEM consortium develops best practices for creation of exposure datasets. To account for regional variability, they do so in interaction with experts worldwide. By harmonizing the best public exposure datasets, the consortium is putting together a first comprehensive global dataset of building stock and population.

Organisations and individuals worldwide will be able to view and explore the GED in a GIS-environment; use subsets of it for own analyses and submit data to collaboratively enhance it. Using the best practices proposed by GED4GEM, another consortium is developing tools to capture new data on individual buildings and from remote sensing. New datasets at various scales can furthermore be integrated into the GED, following clear guidelines. Through these processes of crowdsourcing and continuous updating, users worldwide will be able to carry out risk analyses with increasing accuracy. A resilience based analysis framework for critical infrastructures protection GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios; FILIPPINI, Roberto Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios [email protected] Critical Infrastructures are essential for supporting everyday functions of modern societies. These functions depend on an extensive network of infrastructures that nowadays are highly connected, forming a complex mesh of interdependencies which facilitate exchange of services of various forms. The benefits from networking are accompanied by new threats and risks. In particular, disruptions in certain infrastructures can cause rippling effects that may render unstable the whole network.

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fluid and oftentimes toggles between different motivational spaces which are then overlooked by such specific databases. To fill this research gap we adopted a data-based approach to structure information on threats to EI and in doing so answered some general yet important questions, such as: In what regions/states is EI targeted? In regions where EI is targeted, what are the causes? What tactics, techniques, and weapons are used and how are they composed? What are the impacts of attacks (local and global)? In addition to answering these questions by providing a summary of EIAD's key findings and overarching trends we will also discuss the coding methodology and development. Keywords: energy security, critical infrastructure, emerging risks

The impact on the public of preventive information about risks GLATRON, Sandrine CNRS (National center for scientific research), France Presenting author: GLATRON, Sandrine [email protected] The European legislation assumes that preventive information campaigns should contribute to reduce the potential damages of disasters and to make the risks acceptable for the population. Information about risks and preventive measures to be adopted is one of the key elements in the management of hazard-prone areas, aiming at reducing the potential effects of disasters among population. Therefore, the impact of this information needs to be assessed regularly. Though the question is not new, we still have to worry about this impact as it is not proved that preventive information is able to be of some help whenever a disaster occurs. Thus, several natural and technological examples in France pointed out information is not well known or implemented by the public, especially after a catastrophic event. Several surveys were carried out in Mulhouse (Alsace), Sicily (Italy) and La Réunion (France d’outremer) during the last decade; confirming many scientific outcomes, they brought out that preventive information is insufficiently and inappropriately diffused, badly reminded, and that public authorities in charge of the diffusion are neither trustworthy nor legitimate. This situation becomes a real problem in a society which tends to render individuals responsible for reducing their exposure to risk. But it should and could probably be solved by several pro-active measures like persuasive and binding communication. Keywords: preventive information, risk perception, France and Italy, natural hazard, technological risks Prevention of major accidents in road transportation of dangerous goods GLOOR, Adrian Robert ASTRA, Switzerland Presenting author: GLOOR, Adrian Robert [email protected] As within the EU by the Seveso Directive, the protection of the public and the environment from serious damage in Switzerland is based on the directive on the prevention of major accidents. Unlike the EU, the Swiss legislation also includes transportation of dangerous goods on traffic routes (railways, roads, marine). Aside from companies handling hazardous materials the Swiss regulation thus requires in particular also owners of traffic routes, which serve the

RAPID-N: A tool for mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes GIRGIN, Serkan (1); KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (2) 1: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; 2: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy Presenting author: KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth [email protected] Major accidents at industrial facilities triggered by natural hazards (natechs) are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. However, methodologies and tools to assess natech risks are still limited in many aspects. Recent EU and OECD-wide surveys have shown that hardly any natech risk maps, which identify natech-prone areas and show the associated risk, exist in the Member States. In order to bridge this gap, a study was launched to develop a unified natech risk-mapping methodology. As a first step, a probabilistic natech risk-mapping methodology was envisaged for earthquakes and was implemented as a software tool called RAPID-N. RAPID-N is a web-based, open, and collaborative application allowing rapid natech risk assessment and mapping with minimum data input. It uses fragility curves for natural hazard damage estimation and utilizes simple models for consequence analysis based on natech event scenarios. In order to minimize data requirements the tools has an advanced data estimation framework to calculate on-site hazard parameters and site, process equipment, and hazardous substance properties. The tool also monitors on-line earthquake catalogs and provides an up-to-date earthquake database with source and on-site hazard parameters to be used for natech risk assessment. A basic set of fragility curves from the literature is supplied for the damage assessment. User-defined damage states and fragility curves are also supported for different types of process equipment. Conditional and probabilistic relationships can be specified between damage states and probable natech event scenarios. Natech consequences are assessed using the Risk Management Program methodology of US EPA. The results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps. RAPID-N can be used by authorities for land-use and emergency-planning purposes by using scenario earthquakes. It can also be utilized for rapid natech related damage estimation following actual earthquakes. The Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD): announcing a new dataset GIROUX, Jennnifer (1); BURGHERR, Peter (2) 1: Center Security Studies (CSS) / ETH Zurich; 2: Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) Presenting author: GIROUX, Jennnifer [email protected] This presentation will provide an overview of the Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD) - an open-source resource developed by the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) that structures data on reported (criminal and political) global attacks to energy infrastructure (EI) since 1980, by non-state actors. The development of EIAD was inspired by a knowledge deficit in this area where extensive empirical analysis and scenario modeling was lagging behind due to the lack of specialized, publicly available databases with detailed coverage of non-state threats to EI. In fact, most non-commercial databases dealing with non-state threats tend to focus exclusively on terrorist attacks, however today’s violent non-state actors are

presentation will outline the Kilimo Salama business model, as well as challenges we have faced in developing the product and bringing it to market. Experiences of working for improving state of community based disaster preparedness in Mumbai city GOVALE, Ajay R. Program Director - United Way India Helpline - United Way of India & United Way Mumbai Helpline- United Way of Mumbai Presenting author: GOVALE, Ajay R. [email protected] This presentation will highlight the strategies for improving the level of resilience in urban communities based on the experiences gained in Mumbai city. United Way Mumbai Helpline (UWMH), a special initiative of United Way of Mumbai over the past 6 years has been striving to improve the state of community based disaster preparedness in Mumbai city through public private partnership initiatives. Interventions of UWMH focus on channelizing the disparate efforts of public and private stakeholders, creation of on-ground network of stakeholders equipped with know-how for disaster management and thereby complementing the government in disaster management. The key strategies include; firstly; Multi-Stakeholder Partnership wherein, key government and private stakeholders are engaged in process of disaster preparedness at local civic ward level, inter-agency interaction is facilitated for collective disaster response i.e. role identification, resource sharing and collaboration and capacity building of all the stakeholders by channelizing locally available expertise. Secondly; Bridging the gap between government and community by mobilizing community participation: information dissemination, preventive education, emergency communications, community mapping thorough community participation: anticipated threats, available resources and plans for matching them for disaster mitigation. Thirdly; Creating on-ground network of trained community volunteers: train various stakeholder groups: college youth, school & college teachers, citizens, corporate employees, government employees as First Responders and link them with local municipal officials. Fourthly; Community Resilience Indicators: UWMH actively contributed for developing indicators for assessing the level of community’s resilience and necessary actions under the initiative of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai. Fifthly; Post Disaster Recovery: Relief & Rehabilitation: Immediate relief and long-term rehabilitation of disaster victims for faster recovery through Coporate Partnerships. Thorough need assessment in consultation with government and local NGOs to avoid duplication and benefit right people. Thus, the learnings are useful for replication in other mega cities for creating a resilient world. Keywords: Community participation, multi-stakeholder partnership, urban community resilience, disaster prevention, disaster mitigation, disaster recovery, community based disaster management, capacity building, community volunteers Floating ecocities as a strategy to reduce the vulnerability of delta areas GRAAF, Rutger De (1,2) 1: Rotterdam University of Applied Sciences, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; 2: DeltaSync, Delft, the Netherlands

transport of dangerous goods to investigate the possi-ble risks and to take all safety measures that are appropriate to reduce the risks. Road owners, such as FEDRO, apply a two-stage investigation process. The first step considers the probability of a possible event on the basis of summary data on traffic- and road conditions and the environment of a section. The evaluation of the results is presented in the form of a probability-consequence chart, which is based on a set of typical standard scenarios covering fire-, explosion- and release of toxic gas events. It represents the risk situation in a semi quantitative manner. The first step indicates whether the identfied risks are acceptable or not; that means, whether the existing safety measures are sufficient to reduce the risks to a satisfactory level. If not, a second in-depth study is necessary, which includes the elaboration of a quantitative risk analysis taking in account all available data with the highest possible precision and substance-related dispersion models. If the second step confirms the estimated risks of the first study, further safety measures outside of the standard regulations for road buildings have to be developed and implemented. These studies have been applied by the FEDRO on the Swiss national roads; normally associated with the development and scheduled maintenance of road sections. In the presentation, the main results of the investigations will also be presented. Keywords: risk road transportation dangerous goods Insurance for the Rural Smallholder Farmer: Kilimo Salama GOSLINGA, Rose Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland Presenting author: GOSLINGA, Rose [email protected] Weather-related risks like extreme or erratic rains, flood, and drought are some of the greatest challenges that rural smallholder farmers face. These farmers who have farms of five hectares or less in some of the most hard-to-reach parts of the globe are the most adversely affected by weather-related risks. They are also the most difficult to reach via traditional models of risk-management or insurance. The Kilimo Salama team recognized the unique challenge that this segment of the market posed and has built a product that specifically fills this need. Kilimo Salama’s use of technology is the key to our product’s affordability and the model’s scalability. Our 64,000 clients are farmers scattered throughout rural Kenya and Rwanda. By working through agro-vets as well as employing solar-powered weather stations and mobile payments we have dramatically reduced our administrative costs and can offer premiums that millions can finally afford. To reach these rural farmers we work with local agro-vets who sell inputs like seeds and fertilizer to surrounding farms. When a farmer purchases insurance, the agro-vet can register the purchase through a specially-developed mobile application by scanning a quick response code. At the end of each growing season our automated weather stations compare weather indices to the collected weather data, and calculate and send the insurance payout owed to client farmers via automated mobile payments. For example, a farmer can insure a bag of seeds costing the equivalent of $2 for about $.05. In case of a drought, instead of suffering a complete loss, he will receive a mobile payment equivalent to the $2 he paid for the seeds and can begin afresh at the next growing season. This

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Preparedness of CBRNE incident management within the EU GRAN, Hans-Christian FFI, Norway Presenting author: GRAN, Hans-Christian [email protected] Preparedness for CBRNE incident management is one of the most important areas of EU Security research today. Wide range of possible scenarios involving chemical, biological, radioactive/nuclear and explosive substances require technologically advanced preparedness tools and organizationally complex preparedness mechanisms. EU research in the area has therefore moved from capability projects towards integration and demonstration projects, aiming to integrate preparedness tools and procedures into functioning systems capable of responding to all sorts of CBRNE events. One such integration project is the PRACTICE Toolbox project, Preparedness and Resilience Against Terrorist Attacks using Integrated Concepts and Equipment. Briefly described, the PRACTICE project concept is to develop an architecture of event parameters and preparedness functions required to manage different aspects of CBRN incidents before, during and after a CBRN event. The architecture will be universal in nature and easily adaptable to connect to different national systems, pre-existing crisis management tools and opens to include newly developed technologies and procedures. In this way, PRACTICE Toolbox will remedy the existing fragmentation in Europe today and enable a truly integrated approach to CBRN preparedness. Whether we talk about tools for detection and identification of substances, forensics, victim management procedures, societal resilience development tools, training activities, decontamination tools, medical countermeasures procedures, et cetera; all conceivable preparedness and resilience functions needed in different EU societies will be connectable to a single integrated system approach developed by a European consortium and funded by EU Fp7 program. The role of economics in making better sustainable flood risk management decisions GREEN, Colin; VIAVATTENE, Christophe Middlesex University, United Kingdom Presenting author: GREEN, Colin [email protected] We now better understand that we are part of integrated, dynamic and complex systems (economic, social and environmental). We want to make progressively ‘better’ decisions that will take us on the path to sustainable development. In this context, hazards are shocks that have to be accommodated using the principles of resilience and adaptive management. Those shocks result in an immediate reduction in well-being and a hoped for recovery over the longer term. This is the context in which the economic analysis of floods is now situated where the purpose of economics is help the stakeholders understand how the shock of a flood propagates through the different systems, how recovery takes place, and the implications of intervening at different points in time and space. At the same time, it is necessary to recognise the current limitations of economics in addressing these questions. This was the challenge confronted in the European ConHaz project (www.conhaz.org ) and resulted in the recent guidelines for assessing the costs of floods.

Presenting author: GRAAF, Rutger De [email protected] Delta areas all over the world face multiple interconnected problems. They are increasingly threatened by flood damage, land subsidence, sea level rise, and extreme weather events. Another challenge is how to accommodate a huge increase in population while at the same time reducing the pressure of delta areas on the environment. Starting from a theoretical framework of vulnerability, this presentation demonstrates the concept of floating productive urbanization based on cyclic resource flows in vulnerable delta areas. A floating ecocity adapts to any future water level and can also be flexibly adapted to changing societal needs. The objective is to achieve a positive impact on the environment by using waste products of delta areas, and to create pleasant living conditions for involved and resilient communities. The presentation elaborates on the urban metabolism and the resilience of the floating ecocity. Moreover, various key governance, design and technical elements for the realization of floating ecocities will be presented. A wind erosion case study in an alpine meadow (Davos, Switzerland) compared to wind tunnel experiments with live plants GRAF, Frank WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland Presenting author: GRAF, Frank [email protected] Today, it is generally accepted that the (re-)establishment of a protective vegetation cover is the most promising and efficient measure in restoring degraded land in the long term. Sustainable protection against wind erosion requires adequate information about suitable plant species regarding ecological aspects as well as with respect to their proper contribution to wind erosion control. The latter, however, is widely lacking. Within a broader conceptual framework, experiments were performed in the wind tunnel of the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, with the novelty of considering naturally grown vegetation covers. Furthermore, field measurements have been conducted on two test tracks in an alpine meadow (Davos, Switzerland). One track is representing the naturally alpine vegetated soil (15-20% plant cover) and the other, sheet-covered, is mimicking desertified soil (0% plant cover) providing a direct link to the wind tunnel experiments that were performed with a plant cover of 0 and 16%, respectively. Compared to the unplanted soil, only small amounts of sand were transported from the vegetated plot, even during heavy wind events. Overall the ratio varied from 1:50 to 1:175 depending on the position of the measuring points. Qualitatively similar findings, however quantitatively less pronounced (1:15), resulted from the wind tunnel experiments. The remarkable difference between the field and wind tunnel study implies that the sheltering effect of vegetation under natural conditions is 3 to 12 times higher. However, this conclusion needs careful reflection. After all, the two studies differ in several aspects of their set-up. Correspondingly, the data are comprehensively discussed, with respect to meteorological, hydrological, and ecological aspects, particularly focused on symbiotic relationships between plants and mycorrhizal fungi and consequences in terms of their practical application. Keywords: wind erosion, plants, mycorrhiza

gender in the context of disasters and the implications of this for community resilience. With such an aim, this research challenges the standard view of resilience in mainstream economics where the term is often used in a manner synonymous with the notion of “bouncing back” and it implies the capability to return to a previous state of equilibrium. This usage captures neither the reality of disaster experience nor its full implications. Thus, this paper is structured around the idea that the post-disaster recovery phase will present community members with a new reality that may differ in several fundamental ways from that prevailing pre-disaster. It is the changed reality (whether from the disaster itself or the societal response to it) that men and women must adapt to. By using a field experiment on gender behaviour in post-tsunami Indonesia (Aceh and Nias), this paper argues that gender structures, reflected in gendered norms and practices, give rise to systematic gender differences in the perception of risk and altruism and provide an insight into resilience. In conclusion, the arguments about gender, risk perception and altruism are brought together in a theoretical model which might serve as a starting point to understand how women’s actual caring responsibilities and risk attitudes are relevant to foster a culture of resilience after disasters. Keywords: risk, society and culture Enhancing farmer’s resilience toward droughts: perspective from northwestern region of Bangladesh HABIBA, Umma; SHAW, Rajib; TAKEUCHI, Yukiko Kyoto University, Japan Presenting author: HABIBA, Umma [email protected] Bangladesh, an agro-based country that experiences drought more in recent years than earlier decades. Particularly, the northwest part of Bangladesh is severe drought-prone area than other parts of country because of high rainfall variability. The average annual rainfall of this area is 1,329 mm whereas the country’s average annual rainfall is 2,300 mm. This rainfall shortage accompanied with high temperature hastens drought severity of northwest region. As a consequence of drought, agriculture is badly affected that has significant impact on farmer’s livelihood. Farmers of this region performed various adaptation measures to cope with this insidious disaster by their own efforts along with institutional supports. But, these efforts and supports are not sufficient enough for farmers to endure towards drought. Therefore, this study assessed drought resilience through SIP approach (socio-economic, institutional and physical) at institutional level and also measured drought resilience at farmer’s level. This study also tries to develop drought adaptation action policies for increasing farmers’ resilience towards drought. To facilitate successful implementation of these actions, farmers’ level has been categorized into individual and family level as well as community level. At individual and family level, results reveal that crop diversification; mango cultivation and extension worker’s role could significantly increase farmers’ resilience. On the other hand, establishment of mango orchard, vegetable gardening and community health care service would be helpful for community level to enhance drought resilience. Important policy message from this study suggested that justification of these actions through GO, research institutes and other relevant organizations will

Rather than being supply driven, an economist’s analysis of flood risk management, these attempted to be demand driven: addressing the questions of what the stakeholders want to know, what they need to know, and how they want to know it. Keywords: floods, sustainable development, complex system, decision, stakeholders Mastering the ante in critical infrastructures – a Swiss approach to visualizing trends, realizing opportunities and defeating threats GRUBER, Marco (1); DOERIG, Adolf (2) 1: Gruber Partner AG, Switzerland; 2: Doerig + Partner AG, Switzerland Presenting author: GRUBER, Marco [email protected] Critical infrastructures are networks and services in various areas: telecommunication and information services, energy services (electrical power, natural gas, oil and heat), water supply, transportation of people and goods, banking and financial services, government services and emergency services. Disasters always have serious effects on critical infrastructures, such as cutting populations off from clean water, power, transportation or emergency supplies. For the latter, groundbreaking initiatives such as “One Health” by GRF Davos helped greatly in developing awareness and a common understanding among public and private authorities around the world: for they have realized the imperative of protecting their critical infrastructures to increase public trust based on security, transparency and governance. The business case for further developing sustainable and successful initiatives with respect to critical infrastructures specifically depends on the knowledge and understanding of the relevant trends, scenarios, opportunities and threats within a well-defined governance framework. With that focus in mind, it’s becoming increasingly important to ask, to understand and to answer the following questions: (1) Are we aware of the trends in a world full of discontinuities – and how do we document them with respect to critical infrastructures? (2) Which scenarios are we taking into account – and how do we visualize them? (3) Do we know the strategic opportunities and threats in critical infrastructures – and how do we deal with them? (4) Do we have an appropriate governance structure in place – and how do we develop it even further? (5) How do we support and monitor the execution of the activities – and how do we communicate? Adolf J. Doerig and Dr. Marco Gruber will present best-practice cases with respect to trendfinding, opportunity and risk management, business continuity management and infrastructural development in the public and private sector of Switzerland. Keywords: strategic trends, scenario building, opportunity and risk management, governance, success factors, framework Risk, altruism and resilience in post-tsunami Indonesia: a gendered perspective GUARNACCI, Ugo (1); DI GIROLAMO, Amalia (2) 1: University of Reading, United Kingdom; 2: University of Durham, United Kingdom Presenting author: GUARNACCI, Ugo [email protected] This paper aims to analyze whether or not risk attitudes and pro-social behaviour display systematic differences by

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Disasters are not evenly distributed in the world. Developing countries are bearing the brunt of the death and destruction, and the international community has identified capacity development for disaster risk reduction as a vital tool to substantially reduce disaster losses. However, not all capacity development projects have resulted in improved capacity for disaster risk reduction in the intended countries.

The purpose of this conference paper is to present a framework with seven requisite elements for effective capacity development for disaster risk reduction and give examples of its application:

(1) Terminology – understanding key concepts as well as how other stakeholders understand them.(2) Local context – understanding the basic political and institutional, social and cultural, physical and environmental, and economic context of the project, including who are its stakeholders.(3) Ownership – ensuring local stakeholders having ownership over the capacity development process.(4) Capacity assessment – understanding risks and the current capacities available for disaster risk reduction, and determining commonly accepted capacity development objectives among stakeholders.(5) Roles and responsibilities – ensuring local stakeholders to assume leading roles and external stakeholders to assume supporting and coaching roles, and that all stakeholders understand this division.(6) Mix of activities – addressing capacity development needs in a systematic and holistic manner, acknowledging dependencies between stakeholders, sectors, levels, etc.(7) Monitoring, evaluation and learning – ensuring continuous monitoring and timely evaluation of the actual effects of capacity development projects and their activities, and use these inputs for learning.These seven elements have proven useful as a framework for analysing stakeholders’ notions of capacity development for disaster risk reduction, for gap analysis and evaluation of existing capacity development projects, and may be used to inform the design of future capacity development projects. Keywords: Capacity development, Capacity building, Disaster risk reduction, Risk, Disaster Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) – a strategic Swedish initiative for disaster risk reduction HALLDIN, Sven (1,2); BYNANDER, Fredrik (1,3) 1: Centre for Natural Disaster Science, Sweden, Kingdom of; 2: Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden; 3: Swedish National Defence College Presenting author: HALLDIN, Sven [email protected] Infrastructures of advanced societies become more complex and the costs of natural disasters grow. The complex interrelationships constituting a natural disaster can effectively be studied only by integrating the scientific understanding of nature, the functional foundations of society and the technology that connects the two. The Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) is a Swedish Government strategic research initiative set out to accomplish exactly this. CNDS recognises the most significant research gaps to be interdisciplinary cohesion and that decisions are taken

facilitate to develop the suitable drought adaptation action policy for this region. Accordingly, it would be effective for farmers as well as communities of this region to sustain their livelihood against droughts by practicing these actions from national to local level. Keywords: Drought, resilience, adaptation action, farmer, northwest Bangladesh Early warning of glacial lake outburst floods and climate change monitoring in the Karakoram mountains, P.R. China HAEMMIG, Christoph (1); KEUSEN, Hansrudolf (1); HESS, Josef (2) 1: Geotest AG, Switzerland; 2: Federal Office for the Environment, Executive Director LAINAT, Switzerland Presenting author: HAEMMIG, Christoph [email protected] In the last decade, 5 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) damaged infrastructure and claimed human lives along Yarkant River, Xinjiang, P.R. China. The spontaneous floods are a threat for over 1 Mio inhabitants in the floodplains of Yarkant River and are causing an annual monetary loss of approx. 10 Mio Euro. Yarkant River drains the Karakoram Mountains with a catchment area of 50’248 km2 and ranks as number one in terms of flood frequency and damages in Xinjiang. The glacial outburst floods with peak discharges of up to 6’000 m3/s originate from a remote ice-dammed glacier lake at 4’750 m a.s.l. in the Shaksgam Valley, approx. 560 km upstream of the floodplains. There, the Kyagar Glacier snout blocks the riverbed. Hence, a lake with a volume over 200 Mio m3 has built-up in the past. Based on a memorandum of understanding between the Ministry of Water Resources of P.R. China (MWRC) and the Swiss Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC), it was decided to initiate a Sino-Swiss project to improve risk assessment and mitigation with respect to climate change, combining various technologies and know-how. The project is supported by a cooperation between the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). Actions are structured into three phases: 1) establishment of an early warning system (EWS) for GLOFs; 2) risk management for the potential flood areas; 3) climate change monitoring. The automatic gauge and warning station is operational since autumn 2011. Both water level fluctuations and EWS functionality are continuously monitored. Because the volume of Kyagar glacier lake strongly depends on the thickness of its blocking ice-dam, mass-balance calculations are crucial. Such calculations and climate change monitoring are needed to define future hazard scenarios and to plan protection measures. Keywords: Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, Early Warning System, remote sensing, climate change Seven elements for capacity development for disaster risk reduction HAGELSTEEN, Magnus (1,2); BECKER, Per (1,2) 1: LUCRAM, Lund University, Sweden; 2: Training Regions Research Centre, Lund University, Sweden Presenting author: HAGELSTEEN, Magnus [email protected]

risk, with focus on assessment approaches integrating the water, sanitation, hygiene and health aspects; 2) dealing with and reducing risk, with focus on the available preventative measures and actions; and 3) bridging knowledge to action through social learning. This presentation will first elaborate and seek feedback on the conceptual framework developed within the project to guide the case studies from around the world, followed by some preliminary results from a case study of the Kristianstad City of Sweden, one of the frontrunners in urban adaptive management and flood risk reduction. Keywords: Extreme waters, resilient cities, water, sanitation, health risks, social learning, adaptive strategies Making and unmaking human security: the limits of state power in reducing risk and creating resilience HANDMER, John; MCLENNAN, Blythe RMIT University, Australia Presenting author: HANDMER, John [email protected] In an era of global economic, business, political and cultural forces, the role and power of national governments can seem unclear. It is often argued that the global rich should, on the grounds of equity, support the global poor in adaptation to climate triggered disasters, and that this should be done through international institutions. Put another way this is about the reduction of vulnerability to disasters among those who are currently most vulnerable. Although this idea has long been promoted, progress internationally has been very limited. However, the European Union has shown on a regional scale what is possible. In large measure this was because the Union gave human security explicit priority over state security. The constituents of human security are also those that reduce vulnerability to natural phenomena and promote resilience to most sources of social stress. The major challenge facing Europe now, and that facing much of the world, is how to avoid losing the gains in human security and resilience - while also supporting improvement in poorer countries. This presentation argues that promotion of human security, in particular through developing food, water, livelihood and health security, should be the emphasis for both adaptation and disaster risk reduction. An overarching question concerns the power and role of government in this task, and the tensions that have to be negotiated. Some recent influential international and national publications that set out very different approaches are used to illustrate the issues. Keywords: Risk, Society, Culture World Health Organization: health security preparedness HARPER, David Ross World Health Organization, Switzerland Presenting author: HARPER, David Ross [email protected] The world faces increasingly complex and unpredictable public health emergencies arising from known and unknown origins or sources: infectious disease outbreaks; diseases related to unsafe food and water; environmental hazards including chemicals and radiation; humanitarian disasters, natural or man-made; and the health consequences of climate change. All are compounded by increasing population pressures, and all countries are at risk because any public

that don’t reflect scientific knowledge. These problems are approached by bringing carefully recruited young scientist together in the beginning of their careers with clear objectives of creating problem-focused interdisciplinary research projects. The core of the programme is a tandem of cooperating research schools catering to a Swedish and a Central American group of PhD students. It recognises a collective responsibility to devise and develop research problems on (1) design and effective use of early-warning systems, (2) design of systems for decision support, effective collaboration and crisis communication, and (3) integration of data, information and expert knowledge in processes of evaluation and change. CNDS aims at increasing the understanding of the inter-woven societal, scientific and technical processes involved in natural disasters. This knowledge will allow risk reduction through improvement of society’s capacity to prevent, manage and recover from disasters. The research will be carried out in an international context while collaborating with Swedish industry and authorities. It aims at developing communication tools for warning, decision, and other support systems in natural-disaster management as well as developing infrastructure that is robust in case of natural disasters, e.g., autonomous, secure, and robust energy generation, as well as information and communication technology. Keywords: Research school, natural disasters, disaster risk reduction, interdisciplinary research, resilience, vulnerability Enhancing urban resilience to extreme waters: The WASH and RESCUE Initiative HAN, Guoyi (1); JOHANNESSEN, Åse (1); PÅLSSON, Anders (2); ROSEMARIN, Arno (1); RUBEN, Cecilia (1); STENSTRÖM, Thor Axel (1); SWARTLING, Åsa (1) 1: Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, Kingdom of; 2: Kristianstad City, Sweden Presenting author: HAN, Guoyi [email protected] Human beings today are increasingly urbanites. At the same time, human health and security in urban areas are increasingly under threat from extreme water conditions (e.g. floods and droughts) that are projected to become much more frequent with changing climate. One of the major challenge areas for adapting our growing cities to the extreme climatic variations is the sectoral and fragmented approaches through which cities are planned and developed. To a large extent, it seems that the cross-scale linkages are neglected, and the disjuncture between knowledge and action remains a major barrier for genuine progress toward resilient cities.

The WASH and RESCUE Initiative (WAter, Sanitation and Hygiene in RESilient Cities and Urban areas adapting to Extreme waters) is a response to the above challenges. Funded by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency and implemented by the Stockholm Environment Institute with partners around the world, the research initiative aims to assess risks in urban context with focus on water, sanitation, and human health, developing preventative actions to enhance adaptive capacity through social learning. The project will examine multiple scales – river basin, city, and technical systems – interactions in various social, ecological and cultural contexts through case studies guided by a resilience perspective. The key impact areas targeted by the initiative are 1) understanding

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in one or more mediums are detected, and when necessary contacting the affected population and supporting mass evacuation capabilities.

The ESS project is an integrated web-based ICT platform which includes several data gathering components deployed in the incident scene and a revolutionary crisis communication system that reliably transmit filtered and pre-organized data streams to the crisis command center. Fusion of data from a variety of sources for generating intelligent information and creating a reliable Common Operational Picture (COP) can support critical decisions and improve the efficiency of crisis management operations.

The information streams in ESS are organized in a way that they can be easily enhanced by and combined with other available applications and databases (thus enabling the coupling of the ESS system with crisis decision support systems currently under development). The ESS provides web-based access to information originated from several sources. Cooperation between systems and applications is obtained using open interfaces (API) which fact allows public authorities to add to the system more applications customized to their particular needs. ESS data, functionalities and data flow are based on ISO, INSPIRE and OGC standards. Any commercial application adopting these standards will be able to connect to ESS in the future.

The ESS prototype integrates existing ground and aerial platforms for data collection, GIS and location based services (including traffic management and control), risk assessment applications, information broadcasting and group messaging platforms, lawful interception solutions, 3D visualization tools etc. Social vulnerability to natural hazards in China HE, Shuai; YANG, Saini; YE, Jiayuan State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Presenting author: HE, Shuai [email protected] Since last century, together with the significant increment of exposures and natural hazards intensity and frequency, the losses from natural disasters increased dramatically. China has experienced huge changes in social fabrics during the past few decades, especially in population density, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These changes might have exposed people and society to higher risk. It is important to recognize the regional vulnerability exposed to natural hazards in order to help decision making for disaster reduction planning and risk management. For the purpose of getting the spatial distributions of social vulnerability in China, large amounts of social-econ data in the past 2 decades are collected. Based on the provincial socioeconomic and demographic data, specific variables which can construct an index of social vulnerability to natural hazards are selected from mass data by using the principal component analysis and varimax rotation. Using the index of social vulnerability scores, the geographic patterns of social vulnerability for each year can be obtained. Compared with the spatial distribution patterns

health system can potentially be overwhelmed.

The most efficient, effective and sustainable way to reduce public health risk is to implement a broad risk management approach, which involves preparing society at all levels (local, national, and international) to prevent an emergency from occurring, if this can be done, or to respond to the emergency, whatever the cause, mitigate its impact and recover from its effects. This approach requires multi-sectoral, all-hazards preparedness, and means that countries and the WHO secretariat have to have the policies, competencies, capacities, plans and practices in place for its proper implementation.

In advancing this approach to preparedness, the WHO stresses the need for: (1) clarity - on the evidence and tools that are available, on who is doing what, and on roles and responsibilities; (2) accessible information; (3) follow-through on implementation of the essential foundations, for example the International Health Regulations, the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework, the Hyogo Framework, and many other important initiatives; and (4) assistance for countries in becoming better prepared. We propose the development of a ‘One-stop shop’ for countries spanning the entire spectrum of public health emergencies from infectious diseases to humanitarian disasters. Have we finally found the elusive "Higgs Boson" particle of disaster risk Reduction? HAYS, Walter West Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction Presenting author: HAYS, Walter West [email protected] This presentation is a summary of an ongoing critical review of the notable global disasters of my generation as a professional (40 years), which indicates that the probabilistic answer to the question raised in the title is 0.9.

The answer, which can be expressed in two words and in terms of “eight laws of enlightenment,” was in front of the eyes of the world’s professionals the entire 40 years. Never more so than in the past decade when there has been a significant increase in the numbers of communities, urban areas, and nations that have been stricken by natural disasters and catastrophes. The answer lies on our ability to make these social constructs resilient to the potential disaster agents of the disaster-causing event (e.g., a flood, an earthquake, a severe windstorm, or a volcanic eruption). Keywords: Global disasters, Integrative Disaster Risk Management The Emergency Support System - ESS: Concept and technology HAZZANI, Gideon VERINT, Israel Presenting author: HAZZANI, Gideon [email protected] An abnormal event can be defined as a sudden change or cumulative changes in one or several mediums which it interacts with (Telecom, Air, Spatial, Acoustic, Visual & more). The effective control of abnormal events means: monitoring each medium independently in real-time, activating an alarm when sudden or cumulative changes

the catchment. These protections present two advantages: they are very easy and cheap to set up. In the region, we can list 400 fascines, step up in 21 municipalities exposed to the muddy floods risk.

This study focuses on farmers' perception of these fascines in order to understand their potential acceptability of this kind of mitigation measure and to highly the main issues linked to the democratisation of these protective measures in the whole risk prone areas. The methodology used is a questionnaires (N=37) held among farmers in 5 municipalities exposed to muddy floods risk.

The main results show that the fascines are perceived as a restrictive tool: the most of the farmers mentioned that their maintenance is more important than for other mitigation measures such as hedges, non-inversion tillage, grass strips,.... also proposed in the questionnaire. Moreover the "real" efficiency of the fascines against the muddy floods propagation is questioned by the farmers as well as their integration in the landscape.

Among others, these results allow to highly the main restraints in the development of such mitigation measures and have been directly used by the Chamber of Agriculture in order to improve their information campaigns among the farmers to improve the use of the fascines in risk mitigation polices and risk prone areas planning. Keywords: Risk mitigation, Perception, Surveys, Natural disasters Low cost flood early warning systems based on linking local governments and communities in the Philippines HERNANDO, Hilton (1); NEUSSNER, Olaf (2) 1: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration (PAGASA); 2: Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: HERNANDO, Hilton [email protected] Floods are one of the major natural hazards in the Philippines causing heavy damages and losses for municipalities and communities. Weather services monitor levels of major rivers and are able to warn of impending floods. However, such services are not available for minor rivers. One solution is the establishment of low cost community-based early warning systems. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration (PAGASA) is responsible for weather forecasts for the country, and flood forecasts and warnings only to major river systems using sophisticated and automated devices. Unfortunately, smaller flood-prone river catchments are not covered. The Binahaan River Local Flood Early Warning System (LFEWS) covers a small basin area where the local population is involved in the monitoring, transmission, as well as in the early warning chain during flood events. Support for the establishment of the system was provided by Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) in cooperation with PAGASA. It consists of rain and river level gauges, and an “operations centre (OC)” that process and analyze the data received into a warning message that is transmitted down to the community level. The system has an initial investment of 15,000 Euros with all running costs covered by the local

of disaster loss, the spatial patterns of social vulnerability to natural hazards and the index of social vulnerability are verified. Due to the complexity of social vulnerability, this paper presents empirical evidence of the social vulnerability’s temporal and spatial patterns in recent 2 decades. We calculate the indicators of spatial autocorrelation to capture the local development modes and examine spatial effects. By analyzing the spatial and temporal changes of social vulnerability, the major components which influence social vulnerability are discussed. Keywords: social vulnerability; index; temporal and spatial patterns; natural hazards

A framework for sustainable natural hazard management HEDELIN, Beatrice Karlstad university, Sweden, Kingdom of Presenting author: HEDELIN, Beatrice [email protected] In order to manage natural hazards in a more sustainable and integrated manner, new planning and decision-making procedures for natural hazard prevention need to be developed. In this presentation a set of useable normative criteria for the analysis and evaluation of such procedures are described. The criteria were designed as a response to the lack of deductive approaches in the evaluation of methodologies and working procedures used in the context of natural hazards, making it possible to highlight their potential for sustainable development. The criteria are based on the twin concepts of participation and integration. These concepts function as well-established dimensions of both sustainable development and sustainable natural hazard management, and they are of significant methodological relevance. The criteria were derived through a broad literature review and synthesis, complemented by interviews with key researchers. They have been applied and tested within the area of regional river basin management, where they have shown to have great practical potential. The criteria are concerned with integration of knowledge and values into the planning process, with the generation of commitment, legitimacy or acceptance for the resulting plan, and with organizational aspects. Keywords: Framework, Criteria, Sustainable development, Natural hazards, Preventive planning Protection against muddy floods: perception of one protection system (fascines) for local actors in Alsace (France) HEITZ, Carine (1); FLINOIS, Géraldine (1,2); GLATRON, Sandrine (2) 1: Irstea-GESTE, France; 2: LIVE-CNRS, France Presenting author: GLATRON, Sandrine [email protected] For several years, an increase of muddy floods frequency (and associated damages) is noticed in the Alsacian region (NE of France). In 2008, the regional authority ("Conseil Général") with the collaboration of the Chamber of Agriculture decided to set up, directly on farmlands, micro-structures called “fascines” (faggots of brushwood). These little protection systems allow to decrease the muddy floods velocity and to capture the sediments that are transported decreasing by this way the vulnerability in risk prone areas located downstream

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break, beaches, dune systems and coastal vegetation. Field investigations arising from the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 2004 highlighted that natural systems had the capacity to resist the impacts of extreme coastal hazards comprising high amplitude waves and strong currents, provided that threshold stability values of the natural systems were not exceeded. The improved performance of hybrid systems was also evident.

The paper presents a classification of mitigation measures and describes investigations to assess the performance of coastal ecosystems for hazard mitigation.

Firstly, it provides a classification of mitigation measures and focuses on critical issues relating to the performance of coral reefs, sand dunes and coastal vegetation for wave energy dissipation as observed from post tsunami surveys. The classification also provides a comparison with artificial measures thus providing the platform to develop effective hybrid solutions. It is important that such measures are incorporated within a multi-hazard coastal zone management framework giving due consideration to the magnitude and the frequency of occurrence of all hazards.

Secondly, two case studies are presented on physical modeling of simulated coral reef systems and coastal vegetation, designed to assess and quantify the performance of important buffering aspects that were identified from the field surveys. Results are presented from each study. It is evident that natural defence systems can be effectively used either individually or via a hybrid approach for coastal hazard mitigation. Keywords: Risk Assessment and Management,Mitigation Measures, Bio Shields, Tsunami risk assessment and management - case studies from Sri Lanka HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L; SAMARAWICKRAMA, Saman.P; WIJERATNE, Nimal University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of Presenting author: HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L [email protected] The island state of Sri Lanka was severely affected by the Indian Ocean Tsunami leading to the loss of life, damage to infrastructure and unique eco-systems. It was evident that some cities were severely affected by the tsunami in view of their increased exposure arising from coastline geometry. In particular cities located within bays and around headlands were subjected to extensive damage due to concentration of wave energy. This included principal coastal cities along the south and eastern coasts of Sri Lanka. For purpose of coastal rehabilitation, conservation and mitigation it was decided to conduct detailed risk assessment and management studies. The said studies were conducted within a multiple hazard framework to develop integrated risk management solutions, following the Tsunami Risk Assessment Guidelines produced by the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System. Arising from these studies measures were to be identified for (1) mitigating the tsunami hazard (reducing the impact of the tsunami wave); (2) reducing the exposure and vulnerability; (3) enhancing preparedness and evacuation; (4) improving

government. Cost-benefit analysis on return of investment is estimated in about a year’s time. Key to sustainability of an LFEWS is embedded in the empowerment of the flood prone community and its local government to act on their own during times of flood event and having a sense of ownership of the system. At present, eight rivers basins in Region 8 are equipped with LFEWS and eight more are planned for 2013 in other parts of the Philippines.

Emergency Support System - ESS : The web-portal HERRERO, Jose GMV, Spain Presenting author: HERRERO, Jose [email protected] The ESS system is backed by a web-based platform which ensures ubiquitous access to the data built and the information created using the systems components, modules and applications. The web portal is the heart of the ESS system since it serves the fusion of data and aggregation of information for creating the Common Operational Picture required by the operational users. The platform is designed in a modular way and consists of a number of modules and sub-modules which behave as autonomous elements that communicates with each other to provide the complete system. Suitable interfaces and web-services allow the user accessing external applications and collect relative information which is transparently integrated into the unique user interface of the web portal.

The web portal has been designed with a Service-Oriented Mentality, where each piece of functionality is seen as a suite of interoperable services that can be used within multiple, separate systems. In that aspect, the portal acts as a kind of middleware, offering a set of web-services that can be used by external applications to retrieve the data they need to provide additional emergency management functionalities not covered in the portal. Thus the web portal allows ESS to operate as a modular and dynamic suite of emergency management components and applications integrated in a single ICT system.

As part of the ESS prototype, a suite of several components for collecting data (cameras, sensors, cellular probes etc), risk and emergency management applications (weather monitoring, traffic monitoring, forest fire propagation, toxic cloud dispersion etc) and alert communication modules are integrated with the ESS portal, to illustrate the wide range of tools that could be supported by the system. Investigating the performance of coastal ecosystems for hazard mitigation HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L (1); SAMARAWICKRAMA, Saman. P (1); RATNASOORIYA, Harsha (1); FERNANDO, Joe (2) 1: University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; 2: Universiy of Notre Dam, USA Presenting author: HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L [email protected] Indian Ocean coastlines offer a wide range of natural defences against wave action and currents. These include the offshore seabed, sand banks, coral reefs on which waves

Research SLF, Switzerland; 4: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Switzerland Presenting author: HOLTHAUSEN, Niels [email protected] In Switzerland, an analysis of both risks and benefits of climate change is to provide a transparent basis for adaptation decision making on the national scale. To account for the strong regional differences (e.g. high mountains vs. lowlands), the analysis comprises a case study for each of six predefined regions. In this paper, we will present first results for the case study Aargovia.

The approach focuses on the climate change impacts on the policy areas health, agriculture, forestry, buildings and infrastructure, water management, tourism, energy supply, biodiversity and open spaces. The expected impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation and wind are separated in related hazards and developments: from short and medium-term events (e.g. storms, heat waves) to long-term developments (e.g. rise of mean temperature).

The risk analysis accounts for the annual variation of climate-related losses and benefits by the use of probability density functions (PDF) for quantifiable annual effects of each hazard on the relevant policy areas. These PDF enable an aggregation of monetized annual risks and benefits by Monte Carlo simulation for each of the policy areas and/or for each of the hazards considered. Qualitative information on climate change impacts and the degree of uncertainties in the quantitative estimates is considered in the interpretation of the results. We compare today’s risks with those projected into the future (2060). For that purpose we calculate the future risks using two different climate change scenarios and one socioeconomic and demographic scenario. This allows for a comparison of climate change impacts versus demographic, social and economic trends. For an aggregation of the case study results on a national scale, the case study results will suitably be scaled up.

The results provide a valuable basis for the discussion of climate change adaptation priorities on a national scale among responsible administration units and stakeholders. Keywords: climate change, risk analysis, adaptation, Switzerland Analysis of evacuation system and resident's cognition on coastal disaster prevention HONG, Sung Jin; PARK, Hyung Seong; KIM, Dong Seag National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of Presenting author: HONG, Sung Jin [email protected] The objective of this study is to investigate coastal disaster prevention system according to development of evacuation model considering resident's cognition in coastal inundation area. The system is possible to support administrative decision by effective selection of shelter and routes by using evacuation model.

Coastal disasters have become one of the most important issues in every coastal country. In Korea, coastal related disasters such as storm surge, sea level rise and tsunami have placed many coastal regions in danger of being exposed or damaged during subsequent storms and gradual shoreline

community resilience. The paper presents a summary of the investigative studies conducted for Risk Assessment and Management along the coast of Sri Lanka and focusing in particular on the city of Galle. The paper will highlight the following: (1) Summary of the investigative studies carried for risk assessment; (2) approach adopted for risk assessment in the context of hazard (both deterministic and probabilistic hazard modeling), vulnerability and capacity; (3) application of risk management measures in the form of community preparedness, evacuation maps, evacuation zones and shelters; (4) mitigation measures with respect to coast conservation via bio-shields, artificial methods including the development of tsunami breakwaters as part of strategic port development; (5) the development of building codes for new construction, enhancing the strength of existing buildings and their field applications. Keywords: Tsunami Hazard, Modelling, Risk Assessment and Mitigation Does environmental degradation lead the way out of Chuuk, FSM?Rebecca HOFMANNRCC, Munich Presenting author: HOFMANN, Rebecca [email protected] islands are physically vulnerable due to a high land-coastline proportion, limited resources and few alternatives which exposes low lying coral atolls as much as the steep volcanic islands to hydrological forces. Chuuk-State, FSM in the central Caroline Islands of Micronesia is comprised of several high volcanic islands (chuuk actually means mountain in the local language) inside one of the world’s largest lagoons as well as of various low lying atolls outside the main lagoon. Paired with an increasing demand for cash in an economy that largely relies on natural resources, this physical setting leaves the islands highly sensitive to the effects of human and natural interaction with the environment, such as subsistence activities, for-profit resource extraction, tertiary sector activities, etc., but also to natural calamities such as typhoons, floods and droughts whilst hardly offering sufficient adaptation possibilities or alternatives. The diverging conditions, however, often result in one single action: movement. While education, jobs and health are generally understood to be the three major drivers of migration, environmental factors are often underlying and accompanying the decision-making process. The scope both of distance and time as well as the degree to which environmental issues generate such migrations vary and have to be traced individually. This paper will give an overview of Chuuk’s movement dynamics throughout history, with examples from past and present as well as some prospects for the future, extracting the environmental factor of each case.

Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a national climate change adaptation strategy in Switzerland HOLTHAUSEN, Niels (1); KÖLLNER-HECK, Pamela (2); BRÜNDL, Michael (3); LOCHER, Peter (1); PÜTZ, Marco (4); PERCH-NIELSEN, Sabine (1); BLASER, Lilian (1); PROBST, Thomas (2); HOHMANN, Roland (2) 1: Ernst Basler + Partner, Switzerland; 2: Federal Office for the Environment, Switzerland; 3: WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche

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by the Government or other.

Result: Independent grass root DM structures get knowledge about DM and the link to use available Government resources.

Principles for resilience strengthening: (1) Build up self-reliant community DM structures before linking with Government DM. (2) Avoid infrastructure components subsidizing Governments responsibilities. (3) Involve local leaders and Government members in community DM structure

Integrating UDMC members into WDMC is effective and helps professionalizing and sensitizing UDMCs. It has been important to build up a sense of professionalism, responsibility and responsiveness at community level before linking with UDMC. The challenge remains to scale up, integrating WDMC into Government structures while keeping the local initiative and ownership at community level. Integrated assessment of high mountain hazards and related prevention strategies in the Peruvian Cordilleras HUGGEL, Christian (1); HAEBERLI, Wilfried (1); PORTOCARRERO, César (2); COCHACHIN, Alejo (3); SCHNEIDER, Demian (1); ROHRER, Mario (4); GARCIA, Javier (5); SCHLEISS, Anton (5); SALZMANN, Nadine (1) 1: Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland; 2: CARE, Huaraz, Peru; 3: Unidad de Glaciología y Recursos Hídricos, Huaraz, Peru; 4: Meteodat GmbH, Zurich, Switzerland; 5: Laboratoire de constructions hydrauliques, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland Presenting author: HAEBERLI, Wilfried [email protected] The ice-clad Peruvian Cordilleras are often and seriously affected by high mountain hazards such as ice and rock avalanches, glacier lake outbursts, floods and debris flows. In the past, thousands of people have been killed in such disasters. More recently in 2010, massive floods in the Cusco region and an outburst flood of glacier lake 513 triggered by the impact of a rock/ice avalanche in the Cordillera Blanca draw the attention of the public, policy and science. In the face of climate change there is strong concern that warming has a destabilizing effect on perennially frozen bedrock and on steep glaciers in high-mountain flanks, with potentially severe consequences when avalanches impact existing and new glacier lakes and far-reaching floods form. Related risks are changing and need to be managed integratively. The 2010 event at the Laguna 513 where structural measures were undertaken in the 1990s is an example of successful hazard prevention but the risk reduction was not to zero, and complementary measures are necessary. As a follow up of the Laguna 513 event and corresponding assessments by international experts, an integrative project was initiated, which combines three components to sustainably enhance climate change adaptation and reduce high-mountain risks in the Peruvian Cordilleras. (1) Monitoring and early warning systems for lake outburst floods and rain-triggered mass movements are implemented at two sites, integrating technical, social and institutional components. (2) Scientific and technical capacities are significantly strengthened by postgraduate courses and collaborative research projects with a consortium of Peruvian and Swiss universities in the field of glacier, permafrost and water resources in the

retreat. However, it is very difficult to predict storm surge height, tsunami height and inundation due to irregularity of the course and intensity of a typhoon, tsunami and so on. Therefore, it is necessary that adequate evacuation system is prepared in accordance with formalities.

A well-designed system for evacuations warning issues is essentially necessary to reduce human loss and damages. The contents of the present study are following: (i) Questionnaire is designed to be distributed at the time of evacuation drill, which provided us information to determine route selection, parameters and initial conditions of the evacuations. (ii) Numerical experiments using the potential model are applied to analyzing the evacuation situation in the study area.

The results showed that strengthening the disaster information delivery system including quick and exact transmissions of disaster monitoring and adequate evacuation method is important to reduce casualties by coastal inundation.

Detail results are following: (i) shelter building is necessary to be install in predicted coastal disaster area; (ii) easy accessibility is more important than the shortest route to shelter; (iii) active promotion and education plan are necessary to improve cognition about inundation through a survey; and (iv) provide a direction to improve the 'Guidelines on the designation of shelter and evacuation route for hazard mapping '. Keywords: evacuation system, coastal disaster, numerical model, hazard mapping

Strengthening resilience at community level; linking up community DM with Government DM HUERLIMANN, Maja Caritas Switzerland Presenting author: HUERLIMANN, Maja [email protected] In Bangladesh Caritas started 2003 in DRR, developing mixed Volunteers to become proactive in disaster preparedness and emergency response at village level. But there was no link with Government DM structures. These are organized top down to the Union level. A Union includes 9 Wards and about 30'000 people. Ward elect their representative into the Union Council including a Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) is responsible for support and distribution of funds. Mostly they fail to link with the communities.

2008 Ward Disaster Management Committees (WDMC) were formed, including the Volunteers, local leaders and the elected member of the UDMC which creates the so far missing link.

WDMCs are trained in assessing their hazards and natural risks, preparing, implementing and monitoring yearly activity plans. Being part of all those steps UDMC are well informed and Wards profit of UDMC motivation to make government resources available. The project does not finance infrastructure measures but coaches WDMCs if necessary. Wards develop own Funds for own DM activities not financed

compensation. The framework will emphasize the need of a “whole-of-government” approach to risk assessment based on improved access to data amongst countries to enable hazard and vulnerability analysis through measurement and quantification of past direct and indirect disaster losses, as well as of evolving hazards and risk exposures. OECD last year also launched the High Level Risk Forum to advance the international policy agenda for building resilience to large scale risks. Keywords: framework, risk management strategies Vulnerability analysis of women's health in natural disasters and proposed strategies for risk reduction JAHANGIRI, Katayoun (2); IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. (1); SADIGHI, Jila (2) 1: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Iranian Institute for Health Sciences Research (IHSR), Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. [email protected] Women are among the most vulnerable groups of society in natural disasters. In this regard, the aim of the present study is to identify the influential factors of women's vulnerability in natural disasters and proposing strategies to reduce the risk. This study has been conducted in Iran which consists of a narrative review and a qualitative study (focus group discussion) in order to determine the views of decision makers and to propose strategies for improving approaches to reduce women's vulnerability in disasters. The main findings of this study include: lack of women's presence especially in the responsible government agencies, lack of needs assessment regarding women in disaster situations, insufficient legal support of women, need for more credits to be allocated for women in disaster management issues, absence of enough female experts in field of disaster management, constant use of men as relief and rescuers without having women in the team, and lack of specialized centers to train women's relief and rescue efforts. The main strategies that could be suggested in this paper in order to reduce the vulnerability of women in disasters include: increasing public education, activating women's communication networks, reinforcing practical skills for women facing disasters, reinforcing women's NGOs for the purpose of forming its humanitarian activities in crisis prevention, legislation for supporting women, conducting appropriate research and present the results to relevant authorities, allocating roles for women in relevant organizations, defining special positions for women in the headquarter and dispatching teams in disaster regions, and training skills in all areas related to women's health especially in reproductive health in disasters and crisis situations. Keywords: Women health, Vulnerability analysis, Disasters, Qualitative study Integrated risk assessment tools for decision-making. A case study from landslide affected mountain areas in Central Nepal JAQUET, Stephanie (1); SUDMEIER-RIEUX, Karen I (2); DERRON, Marc-Henri (3); JABOYEDOFF, Michel (3) 1: Global Risk Forum, GRF, Davos; 2: Independent, France; 3: University of Lausanne, Institute of Geomatics and Analysis of Risk Presenting author: JAQUET, Stephanie

context of climate change adaptation and risk reduction. (3) Finally, glaciology and high mountain research, and related adaptation and risk management are strengthened at the institutional level within Peru. Keywords: high-mountains, climate change, glaciers, lakes, natural hazards, monitoring, early warning Tsunami awareness in Bander Chabahar, south of Iran IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. (1); ZAKER, Nasser H. (2); FAKHRI BAFGHI, Bibielham (2) 1: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran Presenting author: IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. [email protected] This paper presents the assessment and evaluation of the people's knowledge and awareness of tsunami disaster in city of Bandar Chabahar in southeast Iran. Bandar Chabahar is the largest coastal city of Iran in the Northern part of the Sea of Oman, adjacent to Makran Subduction Zone. Makran Subduction Zone is one of the most tsunamigenic sources in the Indian Ocean and historically has generated some tsunamigenic earthquakes such as 28 November 1945 with the death toll of more than 4000 people along the coasts of Iran, Pakistan, India, and Oman. Questionnaires were distributed to three various groups of respondents including: residents, school children and governmental officials. The data have been collected by field technique through simple random sampling. Data were also collected through face to face interviews and library studies. The results showed the lack of awareness and enough knowledge of the people in the region, especially women. However, among the people in the region, students had a higher level of knowledge and awareness about tsunami. In the meantime, the high level of public interest and concern to learn and acquire knowledge about tsunami were very noticeable. At the end, the results showed that the most effective methods that can be proposed for the public awareness in the study area include: teaching about disasters in schools is important, so that children can transfer the appropriate messages to their families; broadcasting educational programs about tsunamis and earthquakes through mass media; and disseminating community based programs through religious centers with regard to the cultural background of the region. Keywords: Tsunami, Awareness, South of Iran, People's knowledge, Bandar Chabahar OECD High Level Risk Forum and Framework for Disaster Risk Management JACOBZONE, Stéphane OECD Presenting author: JACOBZONE, Stéphane [email protected] Based on its experience in supporting countries to adopt national risk assessments and strengthen their actions to make economies and societies more resilient to crises and disasters, OECD is developing a methodological framework intended to enhance disaster risk assessment and the development of sound risk financing strategies through tools demonstrating the interconnectivity of risks and prioritizing expenditures on prevention, mitigation, preparedness and financial

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proposed method, we used the summer temperature data collected from 756 Chinese weather stations in the years of 1951 to 2009. We computed the time-varying weights of the 6 hypothesized models that characterize the temperature profiles in both mean and standard deviation and their change over time. The SII of each year was computed by summing up the weights of models in which instable phases were captured. We further analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of SII over China. We found out that the summer temperature abnormality started in a few places in the Loess Plateau, Inner Mongolia Plateau and Da and Xiao Xing’an Mountains in 1960s while all other areas presented stable status. The abnormality gradually expanded to Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Tianshan regions in 1970-1980s, and then coastal line from Hainan Island to Yangtze River Delta in 1990-2000s. At the end of 2009, most areas in China, except North China Plain, Yangtze River Basin and Sichuan Basin, showed abnormality in the summer temperatures. This finding may move one step forward to understanding the environmental risk of China induced by global climate change, and this method may have a broader use for diagnosing climate related risks at various scales. Keywords: climate-related risk, Bayesian updating,System Instability Index, climate change, temporal and spatial analysis Rural hazards and vulnerability assessment in the downstream sector of Shiroro dam, Nigeria JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, Nigeria, Federal Republif of Presenting author: JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed [email protected] Shiroro dam is one of the three major hydroelectric dams built on River Kaduna in Niger State, northwestern Nigeria. The downstream communities are exposed to annual flooding and other hazards related to their livelihood activities and living pattern. A study on hazard's identification and vulnerability assessment was conducted in Gusoro and Gurmana villages situated at the downstream sector of Shiroro dam. The study relied on direct field survey using the instruments of oral interviews, questionnaire administration and field measurements for data collection. The existing hazards were identified through field observations and interactions with community groups. Information for the vulnerability assessment was collected using six sensitivity domains (population, livelihood\poverty, health, water and sanitation, housing and accessibility, environment) and three coping capacity domains (asset and infrastructure, human and economic resources, institutional capacity), each with a set of indicators for data collection. The results from data analysis indicated, among others, that the communities were exposed to floods, erosion and health hazards as well as the risk of building collapse and environmental degradation. The local coping strategies of building concentration on higher grounds, construction of elevated footpaths and embankments were found to be primitive and unsustainable. The problems of high level of illiteracy, poverty and dependent population (50%) as well as low or complete lack of access to safe drinking water, health facilities, basic infrastructure, credit facilities (13.0%) make the people highly vulnerable. The level of preparedness is low as there were no disaster management committees, local disaster management institutions and local disaster

[email protected] Policy makers, international donors and NGOs are seeking ways to improve decision making about what investments are needed to decrease risks facing vulnerable communities in mountain areas. There are however a multitude of both risk and vulnerability assessments designed to meet different objectives, depending on whether undertaken from a social science or natural science perspective. Participatory approaches to assessing and mapping vulnerability and risk have become more common yet may not always be accepted as a rigorous tools for decision making. This research was designed to fill this research gap by focusing on landslide-affected communities in Eastern Nepal, increasingly affected by shallow landslides greatly affecting rural lives and livelihoods. The objective of this interdisciplinary research was to provide a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs and local authorities to assess community vulnerability and risk in order to reduce losses from landslides. To do so, we established a methodology for quantifying and mapping vulnerability for comparison between households and in two communities in Central Nepal. This approach was based on assessing underlying social, ecological and physical risk factors that cause vulnerability and the multitude of variables that create risk. Data for our framework were collected based on multiple research techniques, such as remote sensing, GIS, qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, participatory risk mapping and focus groups. Our goal was to keep this method relatively simple, low cost and useful to decision-makers and NGOs for managing and designing integrated development and risk management approaches under changing climate conditions and increasing demographic pressures in Nepal. We compare a physical assessment of risk, a composite measure of risk including social and economic variables and finally a community assessment of risk. Our findings point to a relatively close measure of risk between the three methods with a number of conclusions on the “pros and cons” of each approach. Keywords: Integrated risk and vulnerability assessments, participatory risk mapping, landslides, Nepal. Diagnosis of climate-related risks by using a Bayesian updating method – a case study of summer temperature in China JIN, YunYun (1,2); WANG, Ming (1,2); SHI, PeiJun (1,2); YANG, SaiNi (1,2) 1: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes & Resource Ecology，Beijing 100875，China; 2: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education，Beijing Normal University，Beijing 100875，China Presenting author: JIN, YunYun [email protected] Much attention has been drawn to the regional climate changes of China for its vulnerable ecological environment, under the background of fast socio-economic development in the country. We adopted the Bayesian updating method for computing the fraction of attributable risk related to climate damages developed by Jaeger et al in 2008, and proposed a System Instability Index (SII) that indicates the propensity of transitions toward the relatively instable phases in which observed climate variables show significant change in terms of trend or variation, or both. As a case study to test the

brings together data collected via surveys, case studies and interviews with organisations affected by the earthquakes to show how systemic interactions and interdependencies within and between industry and geographic sectors affect their recovery post-disaster. The industry sectors in the study are: construction for its role in the rebuild, information and communication technology which is a regional high-growth industry, trucking for logistics, critical infrastructure for provision of essential services as well as fast moving consumer goods (e.g. supermarkets) and hospitality to track recovery through non-discretionary and discretionary spend respectively. Also in the study are three urban centres including the region’s largest Central Business District which has been inaccessible since the earthquake of 22 February 2011.

Organisations report that some of the most disruptive effects of the earthquakes were staff wellbeing and customer issues both of which are not direct physical impacts. Key to recovery was the pivotal role staff played in the response and recovery phases. Additionally, findings show that organisational pre-disaster preparedness is not the major factor in recovery after a regional disaster. This work also highlights how earthquake effects propagated between sectors and how sectors collaborated to mitigate difficulties such as product demand instability. Other interacting factors are identified that influence the recovery trajectories of the different sectors. These are resource availability, insurance payments, aid from central government, timely and quality recovery information.

This work seeks to bring together research and practice as well as demonstrate that in recovering from disaster, it is crucial for organisations to not only recognise what interacting factors could affect them but also how to reduce their vulnerability and importantly increase their resilience to multiple hazards. Keywords: earthquakes, recovery, resilience, industry sectors, urban centres The ISMEP activities on raising public awareness, education and volunteering KADIOGLU, Mikdat Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of Presenting author: KADIOGLU, Mikdat [email protected] The objective of this programme is to raise public awareness of risks and to play an active role in disaster reduction and disaster preparedness. This encompasses a substantial part of ISMEP’s activities whose aim is to transform Istanbul into a disaster-prepared city through individuals, families and institutions. Training programmes based on the concept of “Safe Life Volunteers” have been implemented for creating basic disaster awareness among individuals and families and of teaching basic knowledge and behaviour models. The programme also motivates a “safe life” culture and ensures extensive participation in citywide preparations, laying the groundwork for a proposed disaster volunteers system. Fifteen different training modules have been prepared for one of the projects implemented by ISMEP. Experts from both the private and public sectors together with academics have prepared programs under the supervision of instructors and

plans. All this reduces community resilience and increases the vulnerability of the people. The study suggested some practical measures for reducing the risk of disasters in the area based on the findings of the research. Keywords: Hazards, Vulnerability, Communities, Shiroro Dam Social learning in education – an important step in practical integration of preventive risk reduction and adaptation to climate change JOHANSSON, Magnus (1,2); NYBERG, Lars (1); EVERS, Mariele (1,3); HANSSON, Max (1) 1: Centre for Climate and Safety, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden; 2: Evaluation and Monitoring Department, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Karlstad, Sweden; 3: Bergisch University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany Presenting author: JOHANSSON, Magnus [email protected] The potential of linking the preventive phase of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) with the adaptation in human society to forecasted consequences from climate change, has received growing acceptance internationally, but the integration of both fields is still at an embryonic stage. Integration in this case implies transdisciplinary approaches in complex fields where liabilities and stakeholders normally are found in different sectors and levels in society. For integration to be successful, a first step is to create platforms and contexts where participants may generate raised awareness about each other’s roles and evolve a shared problem identification. Social learning is a concept that has been used in many different contexts where uncertainty and change are crucial and challenging. It has earlier been linked as a suitable approach to issues such as public participation, governance or natural resource management. Here it is used in education, gathering among others stakeholders working within the fields of Flood Risk Management, DRR and Climate Change Adaptation at local or regional level around the two Swedish lakes Vänern and Mälaren. Teaching arrangements and didactic elements are described for the two pilot-courses that were held 2009-2010. The academic institutional arrangements favoured an open exchange and knowledge building, with local examples of management and strategies repeatedly in focus during several study visits in different cities along the shoreline. The elements of social learning facilitated the build-up of shared holistic perspectives, identified areas in need of development or research efforts and contributed to informal as well as formal relationships among participants. Keywords: social learning, education, DRR, CCA Recovery and resilience of industry and geographic sectors after the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes KACHALI, Hlekiwe (1); SEVILLE, Erica (2); VARGO, John (2,3) 1: Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, New Zealand; 2: Resilient Organisations Research Programme; 3: Department of Accouting and Information Systems, University of Canterbury, New Zealand Presenting author: KACHALI, Hlekiwe [email protected] Canterbury New Zealand experienced four earthquakes greater than MW 6.0 between September 2010 and December 2011. This study employs system dynamics and

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spatial data can assess risk/vulnerability for emergency management. These risk/vulnerability assessments are used by emergency managers to support resource allocation and disaster mitigation projects. Improvements can be made to risk/vulnerability assessments by utilizing a spatial disaggregation/aggregation technique known as dasymetrics. The dasymetric process allows for improved comparison of spatial data that is aggregated to dissimilar (non-commensurate) areas. Two error terms will be discussed that can quantitatively assess data improvement using dasymetrics against assumptions of homogenous distribution. This combination of methods will be illustrated through a flood vulnerability analysis according to Environment Agency (EA) regulations in the United Kingdom (UK). The case study shows how the use of dasymetrics can change the results of the flood vulnerability assessment. Improved spatial techniques can substantively improve the identification of vulnerable areas to flood hazard and support precautionary actions. This advancement in the combination of multi-criteria risk assessments and spatial data can be generalized to any hazard that can be spatially represented. The inclusion of the dasymetric process to MCDA is especially suited to emergency management due to its reliance on data aggregated to spatial areas (polygons). Keywords: flooding, vulnerability, Geographic Information systems, dasymetrics, multi-criteria decision analysis Indirect economic impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake: approach by Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model KAJITANI, Yoshio (1); TATANO, Hirokazu (2) 1: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; 2: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan Presenting author: KAJITANI, Yoshio [email protected] The economic indicator such as the production index in Japan reveals that the indirect impacts in industrial sectors following the Great East Japan Earthquake is significantly large. There were multiple sources of impacts, which interdependently affect not only the firms in the physically damaged area, but also those in the non-damaged areas in Japan. Many materials and manufacturing parts suppliers were located in the Tsunami and earthquake affected regions and scarcity of their productions induce supply-chain impacts to other industries all over Japan and some of manufacturing industries in the world. In order to review and learn these cascading impacts and develop the indirect economic impact assessment model for the future disasters in the world, we arrange and apply the spatial computable general equilibrium model to the case of supply shock occurred in Tohoku and North-Kanto regions. The obtained results under different key assumptions of the model are investigated comparing with several observed data sets such as economic indicators and the results from questionnaire surveys. Landslide risk management issues in SafeLand KALSNES, Bjørn (1); NADIM, Farrokh (1); BAYER, Joanne (2); SCOLOBIG, Anna (2); CASCINI, Leonardo (3); FERLISI, Settimio (3) 1: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, NGI, Norway; 2: IIASA, Austria; 3: University of Salerno, Italy Presenting author: KALSNES, Bjørn

authorized departments. To achieve complete organizational preparedness, training programmes have been initiated with the goal of reaching everyone in the community, starting with individuals and families. Innovative training materials for all ages were also prepared to convey messages to various target groups. The basic premise of disaster awareness training is not merely to inculcate people with information but to change people’s habits and behaviours and to motivate them to take action. This is why the module of “Safe Life Training” focuses on hands-on applications. The programme’s objective is to equip people with practical skills after being given information on disaster preparedness. Public information and awareness, training programmes and dissemination models organized for Istanbul residents are explained with examples. Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction into the Curriculum: A Technical Guidance Tool KAGAWA, Fumiyo; SELBY, David Sustainability Frontiers Presenting author: KAGAWA, Fumiyo [email protected] This presentation will introduce a recently-completed UNESCO/UNICEF Technical Guidance Tool for introducing disaster risk reduction (DRR) into education sector policies, curricula and assessment at primary and secondary school level. The Tool is mainly for policy makers and curriculum developers in government, non-governmental and UN agencies. It will first be argued that disaster risk reduction education (DRRE) should be located within an education for sustainable development (ESD) framework and that, within that frame, it can be aligned with climate change education (CCE), life skills education and child-friendly learning initiatives, and so make a significant contribution to the evolving notion of quality education. Thereafter, the main features of the Tool will be reviewed: its insistence on systematic horizontal and vertical integration of DRR in school curricula; its guidance on the planning and progression of curriculum development (and its emphasis on consensus-building within multi-sector partnership); its demonstration of processes whereby learning context-appropriate learning outcomes as well as learning outcome progression can be determined and constructive alignment achieved between outcomes and forms and styles of learner assessment; its guidance on the development of learning modules and associated activities and materials and its dovetailed advice on the facilitation of learning; its teacher professional development guidelines and proposals; its benchmarks and indicators for monitoring and evaluating curriculum and its delivery. Finally, the presenters will briefly look through the lenses of the whole school and whole system at issues of DRR curriculum mainstreaming. Using dasymetrics to address the aggregation error in spatial data: a multi-criteria approach for flood vulnerability assessment using spatial data KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2) 1: University of Manchester, United Kingdom; 2: Warwick University, United Kingdom Presenting author: KAILIPONI, Paul [email protected] Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods that use

of local task force for disaster risk reduction to develop a community-based hazard and risk maps as well as the local early warning system.

The role of local universities was very important to provide the research-based capacity development program, which is strategic for encouraging the partnership of local communities with local governments and local stakeholders in developing local action plans in disaster risk reduction. Accordingly, the cyber and community-based technology was established for facilitating effective risk monitoring, communication and an early warning system. It was also obvious that the local task force at village level played an important role as driving power in implementing the disaster risk reduction program, especially to guarantee the effectiveness of the risk monitoring, risk communication and early warning system. Keywords: Risk, communication,management,early warning African Risk Capacity – Sovereign Disaster Risk Management for Africa KASSAM, Fatima World Food Programme Presenting author: KASSAM, Fatima [email protected] On average over the last five years, the UN World Food Programme has spent half a billion dollars annually in food assistance in Africa due to weather-related emergencies. Funding is secured on a largely ad hoc basis after disaster strikes and only then can relief be mobilized. In the meantime, lives and livelihoods are lost, assets are depleted and development gains experience significant setbacks. The African Risk Capacity, ARC, is a groundbreaking project of the African Union designed to improve current responses to drought-related food security emergencies and to build capacity within AU member states to manage drought risks. As an African-owned, continental index-based weather risk insurance pool and early response mechanism, ARC offers an African solution to one of the continent's most pressing challenges. By bringing together the concepts of insurance and contingency planning, ARC aims to create a new way of managing weather risk by transferring the burden away from African governments to international financial markets that can handle the risk much better. This entity will use advanced satellite weather surveillance and software - developed by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) - to quantify the continent's risk, estimate and trigger quick-disbursing funds to help African countries hit by severe drought implement effective and timely responses to vulnerable populations. Keywords: Risk Transfer, DRR, risk quantification Cultural landscape of DRR in Russia KAVTARADZE, Dmitry Ecology and Environmental Preservation in the Academy of Social Affairs, Russian Federation Presenting author: KAVTARADZE, Dmitry [email protected] It is estimated that 80% of loss of life as a result of natural disasters are "human made". Therefore the Russian government introduced a new discipline which includes citizenship, healthy life style, first aid, and general risk reduction, already more than 10 years ago. Together with an

[email protected] Landslide risk management represents a multi-faceted activity, varying from hazard and risk assessment at various scales in time and space, through possible use of monitoring techniques, to evaluation of appropriate risk management strategies. These issues were studied in SafeLand, a research project under the European Commission’s 7th Framework Programme (FP7). Part of the research focused on the effects of climate change and changing demography in Europe over the next decades, and identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots in Europe. Risk mitigation and prevention measures, including early warning systems (EWS) are important issues for landslide risk management. EWS requires the knowledge and technology to predict and forecast landslides, and monitor key parameters such as slope deformations and rainfall. In SafeLand, risk management at a local scale was studied at Nocera Inferiore in the Campania region (southern Italy). The study included cooperative activities between geotechnical experts providing proposals for risk mitigation measures, and social scientists taking care of the decision-making process. Community stakeholders were involved through a number of meetings discussing various options for risk reduction. The mitigation packages were prepared on the basis of extensive fieldwork aimed at better understanding local views and perspectives. Each package included a different mix of active and passive measures, including relocation. On the basis of the results of the working groups, a compromise solution for risk mitigation was presented and discussed with the participants. In landslide risk management it is important to involve the population exposed to landslide risk in the decision-making process for choosing the most appropriate risk mitigation measure(s). The pilot study of Nocera Inferiore demonstrates the potential and challenges of public participation in decisions characterized by high personal stakes and intricate technical, economic and social considerations. Keywords: Landslide, mitigation, stakeholder involvement Hybrid socio-technical approach for effective risk communication, risk management and early warning system KARNAWATI, Dwikorita GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY, Indonesia, Republic of Presenting author: KARNAWATI, Dwikorita [email protected] More than 50 % of the Indonesian region are situated in the high-risk zone for multi-natural disasters, due to the natural conditions and the uncontrolled land use change in the region. Unfortunately, the relocation of local communities to safer area has not yet been successfully conducted due to socio-cultural and socio-economic constraints. Therefore, the establishment of an appropriate early warning system, such as for landslide, floods, debris flows, volcanic eruptions and tsunami is urgently required. Nevertheless, because of the socio-cultural and economic reasons the early warning system has not yet always been effectively implemented. Therefore, the importance of integrating the hybrid social and technical approach is promoted to provide an effective risk communication and early warning system at the local level (i.e. at the village level) in Indonesia. The social approach was developed by addressing the local socio-cultural-economical conditions as well as by strengthening the capacity of the local government and the local community. The technical approach was established by encouraging the participation

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Since September 2010 a series of earthquakes have caused widespread social, financial and environmental devastation in Christchurch, New Zealand. Cultural strengths that are protective in times of adversity have been noted in Māori communities but how these qualities are operationalised following natural disasters has rarely been documented.

A research project conducted in partnership with the local Iwi (tribe) Ngāi Tahu, is addressing this knowledge gap through identifying, and documenting the ways cultural factors facilitate recovery and sustain resilience in Māori communities impacted by earthquakes. A qualitative research methodology (Te Whakamāramatanga), based on Ngāi Tahu values, and practices has shaped the community-based participatory research design. The culturally relevant approach has facilitated trusting relationships between researchers and local Māori communities. Community engagement has been fostered, as well as capture of Māori understandings and practices associated with hazard mitigation, disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Data analysis draws on social and risk theories as well as indigenous epistemological concepts. Initial analysis suggests that cultural, relational and moral technologies interact to create a framework that supports recovery and sustains resilience in Māori communities. Emergent cultural technologies and models of resilience will be inter-related with Paton’s adaptive capacity model of community resilience, which will facilitate acknowledgement and linkage of Māori knowledge, values and practices with global understandings of resilience.

The research is facilitating a review of tribal social/emergency services and practices, and supporting programme development aimed at building Māori capacity in disaster preparedness, as well as promoting community recovery and resilience. Participation in policy development, through ongoing Ngāi Tahu engagement with the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority as well as local and national government is being fostered. Cultural knowledge arising from the research will inform urban and regional disaster preparedness planning in ways that mitigate the impact of future disasters on the indigenous population. Keywords: Maori, recovery, resilience, disaster preparedness

Haiti, two years later: What has happened to the injured? Factors affecting social integration of the 12th January 2010 earthquake victims in Port-au-Prince KHALLAF, Nezha (1); SHANG, Lou (1); MULLER, Joel (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (2); BLACKWELL, Nikki (2); DELAUCHE, Marie-Christine (2); LE PERFF, Hervé (2) 1: LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France; 2: ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of Presenting author: KHALLAF, Nezha [email protected] The objective of the study is to determine the factors affecting the social integration of earthquake victims with severe limb injuries according to the type of medical management they received (amputation or reconstructive surgery). The SUTRA² (Suivie et traitement du traumatisme des membres en cas d’afflux massif des blessés dans les contextes difficiles) study involves the management of limb trauma patients during a massive influx of injured (war or natural

introduction on geology, astronomy, geography, biology etc. in the school standard syllabus this was regarded as a step towards a "Culture of safe lifestyle and behavior". Important part of this “education about oneself” and gaining knowledge on practical behavior n unpredicted events by interactive exercises and tools following the rule: ”In dangerous situation people behave not as they were taught, but as the able to act”. Strategic risk management by a roads provider KELLERHALS, Christian Swiss Federal Roads Office (FEDRO), Switzerland Presenting author: KELLERHALS, Christian [email protected] The goal of the presentation is to give an overview of how FEDRO's infrastructure division identifies, monitors and manages its strategic risks. It primarily deals with technical and environmental risks, and touches on some societal risks. Reference is made to two complementing presentations FEDRO proposes, which look at two specific risk categories of FEDRO's, viz natural hazards and dangerous goods transport.

The Infrastructure division of the Swiss federal roads office is in charge of constructing, maintaining and operating the Swiss motorway network. Its goals are: to complete the network, to identify weak points, to secure the availability, to maintain the functional capacity, to secure operational maintenance, and to preserve the substance and value.

The goal of the strategic risk assessment is to detect risks, which may prevent the Division from reaching the above-mentioned goals, to monitor their development and to develop mitigating measures if necessary. In addition, a comparison is made with risk assessments carried out in earlier years to find out whether risks change in significance and whether mitigating measures were successful or need to be adjusted.The presentation will look at how risks are identified, classified (technical/institutional/environmental as well as reputational risks) and assessed (impact/probability). The strategic risks the Division has currently on its monitoring list include: under staffing, corruption, uncoordinated building sites, natural hazards, dangerous goods transport, lacking maintenance and lacking project control due to outsourcing. These risks will be presented together with the corresponding mitigating measures. Finally, an outlook will be given on how we intend to improve the integration of our operative, project-based risk management into our strategic risk management. Keywords: strategic risk management, roads, public sector Addressing risk and resilience: an analysis of Māori communities and cultural technologies in response to the Christchurch earthquakes KENNEY, Christine Marie (1); JOHNSTON, David (2); PATON, Douglas (3); REID, John (4); PHIBBS, Suzanne Rachel (5) 1: Edith Cowan University, Australia; 2: Joint Centre for Disaster Research/GNS Science, New Zealand; 3: University of Tasmania, Australia; 4: Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu, New Zealand; 5: Massey University, New Zealand Presenting author: KENNEY, Christine Marie [email protected]

infrastructure in Haiti and underlines the problems of equity and quality in the health-care system. Keywords: amputation, limb trauma, economics, earthquake, reconstructive surgery Tsunami hazard mapping through characteristic analysis of inundation KIM, Dong Seag; PARK, Hyoung Seong; HONG, Sung Jin National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of Presenting author: KIM, Dong Seag [email protected] The purpose of this study is to develop the tsunami hazard map by analyzing the characteristic of coastal inundation on the east coast of Korea.

Normally, Korea is considered as safe to have Japan as a barrier of the Pacific tsunami disaster. Indeed it is not safe because there is a long seismic zone along the western coast of Japan in the East Sea. So far five tsunamis were observed in Korea such as Kanpo tsunami 1741, Shankotan tsunami 1940, Niigata tsunami 1964, Central East Sea tsunami 1983, and Hokkaido southwestern tsunami 1993. Among them the Central East Sea tsunami 1983, and Hokkaido southwestern tsunami cost casualties and property damages in the east coast including Kangwon province of Korea.

In this study, probable tsunamis are investigated by analysis of seismic zone in the East Sea. Hypothetical tsunami scenarios are developed to analysis characteristic of inundation and to establish tsunami hazard map on the eastern coast of Korea. Characteristics of tsunami inundation are analyzed for the study areas based on numerical simulation results using different scenarios. According to the analysis of tsunami inundation, tsunami energy trend to concentrate in the eastern coast of Korea due to bathymetric features of the East Sea. Also tsunami height is calculated up to 12 meters above M.S.L.

Finally, tsunami hazard maps are developed based on the analysis of inundation for the study area. It is possible that inundation area, evacuation routes, shelters selection are easily established by the development of tsunami hazard map. If tsunami is generated in the East Sea, it is possible for residents to evacuate safely from dangerous area. In the normal situation, tsunami hazard map can be used as the references of education and promotion for the disaster reduction and prevention under the risk assessment and disaster prediction. Keywords: tsunami, hazard, inundation, numerical model Can the PFI model mitigate risk in non-infrastructure procurement? KINGSMILL-VELLACOTT, Anna; SIDERMAN-WOLTER, Kirk Consortium for the Built Environment, United Kingdom Presenting author: KINGSMILL-VELLACOTT, Anna [email protected] In the current economic climate there is an increased requirement for governments, both national and local, to demonstrate value for money (VFM) to their stakeholders. Nowhere is this more important than in major infrastructure

disaster). The study compares two cohorts of victims of the 2010 Haitian earthquake. One cohort received reconstructive surgery without amputation as the first medical intention and the second cohort were treated with amputation by first intent. A control group was composed of injured who did not receive any surgical intervention. Two sets of interviews were conducted with the victims, the first one year after the earthquake and the second 12 months later, on the 2nd anniversary of the earthquake in January 2012. Medical, functional, psychological and socio-economic data was collected from 306 victims of the 2010 January earthquake. Prior to the disaster, the two cohorts shared the same socio-economic characteristics, with differences emerging after the earthquake. Amputations occurred more frequently between the third and the tenth day post earthquake. Amputation is inversely correlated with level of education. Patients with amputations represent a loss of human capital and a disappearance of family income (after one year, only 19 out of 188 of the amputee cohort earn any income). These differences are are more evident after the second round of interviews. This paper will discuss the factors that contributed to the successful social integration of some of the victims, despite their handicap and the failure of others to do so. Keywords: earthquake, amputation, social integration, injured Medical treatment options and patient preference: the case of the limb-trauma victims of the earthquake in Haiti on January 12, 2010 KHALLAF, Nezha (1); SHANG, Lou (1); MULLER, Joel (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (2); DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (2); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (2); LE PERFF, Hervé (2) 1: LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France; 2: ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of Presenting author: KHALLAF, Nezha [email protected] The 2010 earthquake in Haiti raises questions about the optimal management of severe limb trauma patients after natural disasters. SUTRA² (Suivie et traitement du traumatisme des membres en cas d’afflux massif des blessés dans les contextes difficiles) is a longitudinal interdisciplinary study with the objective to determine the most appropriate management of severe limb trauma victims and improve the quality of care provided to them. The SUTRA² data base has been established for two years, commencing the date of the earthquake (12th of January 2010). It consists of the medical files of 306 limb trauma patients, which includes one control cohort, one cohort of amputees and a cohort of patients who received reconstructive surgery. The data is derived from a set of socio-economic, psychological, medical and functional domains. It uses validated methods (SF-36, quota evaluation). The chosen reference scenario is reconstructive surgical care. The method is participative, conforming to ethical principals of clear informed consent. The quota evaluation shows that victims perceive benefit from a reconstructive surgical approach (on average consenting to pay more than 15% of their income for this care). The percentages of those victims consenting to pay are very scattered with some high values, despite a situation of general financial ruin. The results obtained can be explained by a situation of poor medical

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technology support the alert message design process in emergency situations?The presentation at the workshop will bring forward a set of theses on these issues which will then be reflected and assessed by practitioners in a related panel discussion. Building Resilient Business KOCSIS, Otto Global Head of Technical Center Business Resilience, Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, Switzerland Presenting author: KOCSIS, Otto [email protected] Companies, like communities, are increasingly exposed to risks linked to globalisation issues, underlining the connectivity of disaster drivers. In response, there is shift in focus for business risk management from protecting business assets, business continuity and damage analysis to the protection of value creation and building resilient business. The process of analysing risk and putting in place resilience-building measures for business shares many similarities with the process followed by civil society organisation for building resilience in communities. A coherent methodology and indicators to measure and analyse risk is used that allows comparison between different businesses in different risk contexts. Here, the different elements of the business system including suppliers, sourcing/production/distribution of products, and clients are analysed in terms of exposure to risk and the value of the business at risk where a disaster occurs. The different components of the business are analysed in terms of their resilience to potential risks, with a set of resilience measures proposed for the business system that acts to prepare, mitigate or accept risk. Globalisation and its impact on exposure to hazards is forcing business to rethink the issues threatening the value of their own business, and to consider risk management solutions that look more widely at the systems that impact on their business. Livelihood improvement of the poorest farmer through degraded forest management in Nepal KOIRALA, Pashupati Nath Government, Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of Presenting author: KOIRALA, Pashupati Nath [email protected] This paper highlights, a case of Jhirubas community in Palpa of Nepal, strengthening in a cluster of 227 households to move for collective efforts for livelihood support, which has shown a promising result in the leasehold forestry intervention within a two-year period. The entitlement received, through leasehold forestry programme, from the government has empowered the poorest vulnerable people to manage the degraded forest from low productivity to the higher productive land. A short period of intervention has geared up an optimistic impact on increasing income level of the members. The success of rejuvenating the fragile sloppy mountain and changing livestock farming practices have made rural poorest farmers towards a good prosperous life from miserable position. The threat of longer drought and rain fed agricultural system has been no more risk for their rural life set up and supporting income diversification. It is estimated that the income level of 227 households will increase 13 folds from forestry products such as broom production within three years. Similarly, from livestock 6

projects. For this reason, the UK Government has, for a number of years, used the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) methodology for such projects. However, the lessons learned from this procurement method may have applicability across procurement frameworks for other purchasing requirements.

In the UK, HM Treasury released Choosing the right Fabric, A Framework for Performance Information in 2001. This introduced the concepts of formalised performance framework for government by putting in place an outcome focused model. The basis for the framework can be seen in the Balanced Scorecard method, as introduced by Kaplan et al. The aim of this model was to provide a value for money / cost effectiveness output. However, it only defines cost effectiveness. HM Treasury defined value for money in 1997, so its exclusion from this model is surprising. The Treasury defines VfM as, 'not just (sic) about achieving the lowest initial price: it is defined as the optimum combination of whole life costs and quality'. In 2008, the model was updated by then Treasury MD and Head of Finance Profession, Dame Mary Keegan, to include two additional elements: risk and reporting.

This paper considers whether the introduction of risk would provide a more effective delivery of VFM for central governments in areas of procurement other than those currently procured using a PFI methodology. It considers whether this can be done across all government sector outcomes and contemplates the lessons of PFI in contributing to the discussion on the development of an evaluation framework for risk and value for money. Keywords: Risk, Value for Money, PFI, procurement, strategy

Technology use aspects of alerting systems KLAFFT, Michael (1,2) 1: Fraunhofer Institute for Open Communication Systems; 2: FOM University of Applied Sciences Presenting author: KLAFFT, Michael [email protected] Advances in information and communication technology offer new opportunities to alert the population in emergency situations. Multi-channel alerting systems are nowadays state of the art. They combine traditional broadcasting via TV, radio or teletext with more recent approaches like cell broadcasts or even social media and complementary opt-in channels like SMS, fax or E-mail. Additionally, it has become technologically feasible to adopt alerts to the individual needs and preferences of the recipients. However, how shall all these technical capabilities be used in emergencies to achieve the optimal impact? Questions to be discussed in this context are: (1) Does too much personalization create confusion and chaos? How much personalization is feasible, how much is needed and accepted? To which extent shall personal data be used in the context of alerting and how can they be protected in IT applications? Who shall be in control of registration and personalization processes? What are the essential components of an alert message, and are there socio-cultural and regional factors to be observed in the design process? How shall

natural disasters in China’s county-level units for example KONG, Feng (1,3); SHI, Peijun (1,2,3); SUN, Shao (1,3); LI, Man (1,3) 1: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; 2: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China; 3: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China Presenting author: KONG, Feng [email protected] Traditional risk factors fall into four categories: natural disasters, public health, accidents during production and social security. The four types of risks are called as public safety issues by the government of China . Each category of the four risk factors includes a large number of risk elements. New risk factors are the ones that are connected to human with our discoveries and more attention to them, which is called locking risk.

Currently, traditional risk factors have not been eliminated, while new risks have emerged gradually. For example, population growth or population problem, urbanization or ecological construction and environmental problems, increasing insecurity of grain, water and energy or problems of resource scarcity and economic and social problems, etc. There are countless relations between new risk and global climatic changes. Therefore, figuring out the relationships between new risks, global climatic changes as well as natural disasters is of great importance.

Taking China as the example in this study, select three sets of cross-section data in recent two decades, namely China’s county-level population data (covering rural population, urban population and total population) in 1991, 2000 and 2009 and compute the rates of population urbanization to make a diagram of urbanization rates of China’s county-level cities in the three years. And combine the diagram with China’s disaster plans or diagrams of danger degree, vulnerability and risks of a specific natural disaster, such as drought and rainstorm, to analyze the correlation between population changes and natural disasters and reveal the disaster effects of population urbanization, thereby providing a basis for disaster chain risk assessment guided by regional rules of China’s natural disaster chain, and laying a solid foundation for studying relations between new risk factors and traditional risk factors. Keywords: traditional risk factors, overlay analysis, population urbanization, risk assessment Natech accidents following the great eastern japan earthquake and tsunami KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (1); CRUZ, Ana Maria (2) 1: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; 2: Consultant, Natech risk management and emergency planning, France, and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Japan Presenting author: KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth [email protected] An earthquake of magnitude 9.0 occurred off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan, on March 11, 2011, at 14:46:23 Japan Standard Time. It generated a tsunami 130 km off the coast of

folds incomes will be increased. The experiences is leading the necessity of the intervention with all components of livelihood assets is necessary to make people self-reliant on a regular income sources from the degraded forest land. The results will have a very good lesson for several professionals and researchers to orient the idea into policy development. To conclude, the success cycle and story could be replicate into other shifting cultivated land and similar characterized social set up in the country. Keywords: livelihood, leasehold, forest, livestock Area wide risk assessment – a best practice example in the Province of the Tyrol KOLER, Andreas; HAMA, Angela Michiko; ORTNER, Stefan alpS GmbH, Austria, Republic of Presenting author: KOLER, Andreas [email protected] Our changing climate and the increasing dependency on technology are just two out of many factors that will strongly affect all future decisions made by public authorities and cause substantial changes in the risk landscapes around the globe. At the same time, the number of critical infrastructure facilities keeps skyrocketing. This combination leads to increasing social, economic and cultural vulnerabilities of countries and municipalities, their inhabitants and economies.

To deal with these challenges, the Province of the Tyrol initiated a project that helps municipalities on their way towards an efficient and cost effective risk assessment to reduce vulnerabilities and losses. The Provincial Early Warning and Emergency Management Centre of the Tyrol, Austria together with the alpS – Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Technologies developed a hands-on method for risk assessment in the public sector that follows the latest scientific findings as well the practical needs of public authorities. Together with the developed ORTIS-tool, it allows the implementation of a blended risk assessment method that combines expert- and community-based approaches and considers multi-hazard risks and cascading effects as well as the principles of local participation and cost efficiency. For these efforts and achievements in creating a sustainable, local solution, the Province of the Tyrol was chosen as a role model for community-based risk assessment, management and reduction of the 2010-2015 World Disaster Reduction Campaign: Making Cities Resilient: "My city is getting ready”, run by UNISDR.

This presentation will give deeper insights into the applied method and the ORTIS-tool. Besides, the costs and benefits of an implementation will be highlighted and a brief overview of the results of more than 300 workshops in 279 municipalities given. Finally, the nomination as a role model region within the UNISDR campaign will be addressed and options for future collaboration or application in other regions discussed. Keywords: risk assessment, local participation, multi-risk, community based risk management, hybrid approach Preliminary study of the relationship between new risk factors and traditional risk factors - taking the relationship between the population urbanization and

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after the Fukushima accident by the nuclear establishment give indications in this direction. As Brychanov, the former director of Chernobyl nuclear power plant put it resignedly: Chernobyl has not taught anything to anyone. Keywords: nuclear power, technical disasters, root causes The risk of the wrong priorities in university education KROMP-KOLB, Helga (1); LINDENTHAL, Thomas (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (2) 1: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, gW/N; 2: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, ISR Presenting author: KROMP-KOLB, Helga [email protected] The “State of the Planet Declaration” by the Planet under Pressure Conference 2012 sets off saying that the continued functioning of the Earth System is at risk. Without urgent action, we could face threats to water, food and other critical resources: these threats risk intensifying economic, ecological and social crises, creating the potential for a humanitarian emergency on a global scale. The defining challenge of our age is to safeguard Earth’s natural processes to ensure the survival of civilization while eradicating poverty, reducing conflict over resources, and supporting human and ecosystem health.

Climate scientists agree that deep cutting action needs to be taken this decade. Oceanographers and biologists put similar claims forward in view of ocean acidification and biodiversity loss. Whatever the actions, they must be taken now, at a time when politicians tend to focus on the economic, the monetary and the political systems. Yet it is clear that these highly interdependent and interacting issues must be addressed simultaneously.

In view of this situation: What kinds of “experts” are needed to assist society in the global challenges ahead? Are universities producing the type of experts society needs? Are scientists given the right incentives? Are the indicators of academic success still valid or must they be complemented by additional, fundamentally different indicators? What are the risks involved in producing the “wrong” experts? Could the right type of science have saved societies that collapsed in the past?

What does it take to equip coming generations of scientists for the multifaceted, highly interconnected issues? Can the necessary change come from within the system; can those who grew up in the thinking of the past make the transition to teaching new paradigms? What must other sectors contribute?Answers to these questions will be attempted based on an analysis of the situation in Austria. Keywords: University education, adapting to new needs, sustainable reseach Resilience: from theory to practice KUNDAK, Seda Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of Presenting author: KUNDAK, Seda [email protected] The concept of resilience has been described in different

Miyagi Prefecture in northeast Japan, which inundated over 400 km2 of land. The death toll has reached almost 16,000 with over 3,000 people still missing. The earthquake and tsunami also triggered several major Natech accidents, most notably crippling a nuclear power plant and causing the worst nuclear accident in recent times, as well as sparking multiple fires and explosions in major petrochemical complexes and hazardous-materials releases in other types of industry. In addition, many chemical companies had to interrupt production due to a loss of utilities (water, electricity), damage to berths, roads, etc., shortage of raw materials and because of continuous aftershocks, tsunami alerts and the evacuation of personnel. The direct losses amount to more than 200 billion US dollars (not considering the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident). Although the earthquake generated strong ground motion most damage was due to tsunami impact, which highlights the effectiveness of Japan’s earthquake risk reduction measures. Nevertheless, the Tohoku disaster shows that even prepared countries are at risk of major Natech events and offers an opportunity to learn lessons for future Natech accident prevention and mitigation. In order to understand the main reasons for the industrial damage and downtime an analysis of data collected from companies and authorities was performed. The results of this analysis are presented. Particular attention is given to the refinery fires in the Chiba and Miyagi Prefectures and preliminary lessons learned are presented. The role of societal context in severe technical accidents KROMP, Wolfgang (1); ANDREEV, Iouli (1); ANREEVA, Irina (1); GIERSCH, Martin (2); KROMP-KOLB, Helga (3) 1: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, ISR; 2: San Pierro a Grado Nuclear Research Group, University of Pisa, Italy; 3: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, gw/N Presenting author: KROMP, Wolfgang [email protected] From an analysis of the accident in Chernobyl 20 years ago and from comparisons with other technological catastrophes of the last decades, social and institutional conditions are derived that are at the root of serious technical accidents. The guiding questions of the study are: (1) Were the organisational and structural conditions suitable to support the recognition of technical weaknesses of the plant before its installation or at least before an accident occurred? (2) How did the systems handle recognized technical weaknesses and precursors of the accident? How was the resulting risk taken into account? (3) Were the consequences of potential accidents minimised through extensive prior analyses of potential accident sequences? (3) Was the handling of the accident adequate or was the catastrophe possibly even amplified by lack of insight? Root causes underlying technological failures causing the different accidents and possibly human errors triggering them, were found to be economic considerations, errors of appraisal of limitations of technology and ensuing complacence, inadequacy of checks and balances, insufficient spread of information, prestige thinking and corporate interest of the involved industry. While nuclear technology and safety have been improved since Chernobyl, most of the root causes have not been addressed – they might even have gained relevance. The accident at Fukushima Daichi, and even more so the information communicated during and

remove clothing and start cleaning the patient before they will hand over the patient to EMS personal.

In general, no antidotes will be used without a physician present. According to the medical status (green, yellow, red) the patient will be minimally treated, stabilization for the transport is primary care.

Immediately after stabilization the patient is transported to a hospital. Not every hospital in Frankfurt is equipped with showers on the outside premises. This restricts the availability of treatment for this kind of patients. Hospital & EMS – real time information SOGRO LATASCH, Leo (1); DI GENNARO, Mario (2) 1: Public Health Authority Frankfurt am Main; 2: German Red Cross Frankfurt am Main Presenting author: LATASCH, Leo [email protected] In the framework of a research project called SOGRO, funded by the German government, we run a full scale exercise with 550 „casualties“. The goal was the evaluation of medical disaster management supported by electronic triage.

Today's threat level makes it absolutely necessary, to gain first information of the accident scene and to transfer these data´s immediately to hospitals nearby. With the technology provided by SOGRO it allows the hospitals in real time to follow the MCI and get rapidly prepared as needed.

The technique is based in PDAs and RFID wristbands. In terms of data transmission, is redundant and therefore almost certainly fail safe. The project shortens the preclinical and clinical interface in many ways. Several exercises, with as much as 560 casualties have now demonstrated the enormous time savings for the hospitals to get prepared. By „seeing” the developing scene on sight, they are starting to become a part of the rescue chain. Where ever a complete concept of emergency preparedness and response is wanted/needed, it is imperative to further develop the EMS and hospital set up between the two and to establish interfaces. SOGRO´s part is sharing of information in two-way direction - injury with triage status directed to the hospital and dynamic reporting of available hospital beds back on sight, even during a running MCI.

The use of electronic registration of casualties in major disasters is possible and the hospitals are even faster and more targeted to treat the injured. It can be determined by the real-time information sharing to achieve a maximum increase in resources in hospitals and thus ensure a quick and high professional medical care of patients. SOGRO has been able to prove this concept in an exercise with more than 500 patients and 16 participating hospitals. Terrorist Train Bombings in Madrid. Learned Lessons LEIS, Carmen SAMUR-Protección Civil. Madrid. Spain Presenting author: LEIS, Carmen [email protected] SAMUR is the pre-hospital emergency medical system

ways. Each new definition makes the meaning broader so that the point we have reached today, resilience has a comprehensive meaning but less quantifiable. The main common point of these definitions is that resilience is a way to improve a strategy/behavior to be able to survive and to adapt against external shifts/impacts. To construct resilience the main ingredients are resource, latitude (redundancy), networks (social and institutional), information, experience, knowledge, diversity and robustness. Certainly these components should be performed by innovations, creativity, flexibility, collaboration, self-reliance and feedbacks. Once achieving desirable level, the crucial point is to sustain/manage resilience by self-organization, increasing learning and individual capacity and rapid response. The terms given in italics are pieces of resilience puzzle revealed after many striking events; nevertheless the whole picture has not been fulfilled yet. Once looking at the bright side, disasters may be seen as opportunities to get lessons and to do things right. Consequently, big shocks are able either to wipe out or to unfold most of the weaknesses in the system. Therefore, efficiency of rehabilitation/mitigation process after disaster is crucial to achieve resilience in the future. Turkey has experienced such a big shock due to 1999 earthquakes. The management system at all levels shifted from disaster management to risk management/mitigation. It is worthy to note that this new approach requires long run to achieve resilient communities. This paper discusses the overall achievements of ISMEP Project as well as other relevant attempts with the frame of urban/community resilience concept. The practical indicators of resilience are tested on ISMEP project to show how we may exercise our theoretical knowledge on resilience on real cases. Initial medical care of Chemical patients LATASCH, Leo Frankfurt City Health Department Presenting author: LATASCH, Leo [email protected] Due to the international threat situation an event with terrorist background cannot be ruled out in a city of Frankfurt.

Considering this particular situation, a conflict of interest arises between fast and effective assistance on the one side and the self-protection on the other side. Therefore the units will be downsized to a minimum, for their own safety.

In a normal chemical accident but even in case of a terror backround it’s allways the firebrigade who controls the scene. Only a small group of firefighters in protective cloth will be send into the scene for primary evaluation.

At this stage, there will be no medical treatment/care of victims. In comparison to other countries or even other German cities, the EMS personal is not equipped with protective clothing/equipment like rebreathes. Therefore it is the responsibility of the firefighters to remove victims/patients out of the danger zone which is primarily set at approx. 100 meters. At the borders of this zone, the EMS will be waiting.

According to the agent used, the firefighters will make a decision if they (still in protective clothing) will have to

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resources is key. Training is essential. No hospital in Spain has a CBRN system in place although worl is being done. This specific Procedure of performance For CBRN, the following aspects are considered:

Immediate responsePersonal protection equipment in all units.Staff teaching and training on a regular basis given by specialists in the subjet.Work Procedure coordinated and training on a monthly basis.CBRN response is incorporated into daily activities:

1. Rapid deployment vehicle on duty 24/7.2. On duty detection expert.3. Personal Protective Equipment on all vehicles.Designatedbackpack ( “TURTLE BACKPACK”) that includes:3 full masks with vapour and particles filters.3 semi-masks with vapour and particle combine filter for sprinklings of non-agresive liquids and or particles to mucous areas.3 autofilter elements for particles FFP-33 pairs of chemical protection glove3 pairs of shoe covers1 roll of tape to seal3 isolating protective anti-splashing garments (level I)

Training consists of theory and practical excersise. Monthly inter-institutional drill is conducted. Destection equipment is used in fires. Detection capacity for - CO, O2, HCN and explosive content. The regional economic impact of catastrophe - case study on the China-Japan auto industry after the Great East Japan Earthquake LI, Man; SHI, Peijun; FANG, Jian; NIE, Jianliang; YE, Tao Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: LI, Man [email protected] With the increasing pace of globalization, the international economy is getting closely inter-connected. As a result, the impact of catastrophes tends to transcend the border of countries and may induce regional or even global problem. Due to the complexity of global economy connection, the understanding of impacts between countries of catastrophe remains poor, which restricts the implement of large-scale disaster risk governance. This study uses the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake to explore the pathway by which the disaster affected China, and thus estimate the economic impact on China’s auto industry. The impact mainly consists of three aspects: 1) the decrease in the supply of the auto product and its core components; 2) the disruption of raw materials supply chain and withdrawl of investment from Japan of Sino-Japanese joint venture auto companies; 3) the decrease in the demand of intermediate product for automobile in the market of Japan. Damage data of Japanese auto industry, historical records on the import of intermediate goods for auto manufacturing from China to Japan and econometrical models are used to evaluate the influence of this event on the intermediate goods market in China. In addition to statistical data, a survey is conducted

in Madrid. Samur-PC runs Basic Life Support Units and Advanced Life Support units. On March 11, 2004, ten bombs placed on four different trains detonated during the terrorist attack in Madrid. 192 people were killed (173 people on scene, 2 people died during transport and 17 deaths in the hospitals) more than 1,800 injured.

The magnitude of the attack called for the massd mobilisation of resources. This resulted a regional and national response – something which has previously never happened.

The lessons we learned are resumed in the next points:- Response to multi site incident needs to be global- Coordination between commanders and dedicated communications channel- Dedicated radio channels (between bases)- Commander's identification- The arrival and exit of the workforce must be controlled- Casualty organization on site – by severity.Triage cards are not always useful. Colors triage was not used (though avilable)- possibly because severity was evident.- Field Hospital improved quality of care and use of ALS resources. Phyisicans presence improved care.- Personal protective equipment is requires. Safety a major consideration. “In unsafe site, rescue should predominate over the stabilization”- Discipline in these incidents is the key to an adequate organization- The mass casualty incident procedure should be improved to address the needs of incidents with multiple focus. SAMUR-PC mass casualty incident protocol was modified including CRBN preparedness- Periodical training with simulation exercises (interal and inta-institutional) is very helpful. The collaboration between all the proffesionals) was extraordinary- The capacity to increase the human and mobile resources is necessary. In two hours and twenty five minutes all the incident sites were evacuated.- Distribution of patientes to hospitals – homogenus

Pillars for catastrophe preparedness: training, material resources and Simulation programs Same problem – different solutions: Spanish Model LEIS, Carmen SAMUR-Protección Civil. Madrid. Spain Presenting author: LEIS, Carmen [email protected] Since the terrorist attacks on March 11th 2004, SAMUR PC Madrid is preparing for a possible CBRN attack and not only to an explosives one. The reponsibility to respond to a CBRN incident has shifted from the military to civiliyan institutions, that have different structures, but will support thus cooperation is required. Some important points about the pre-hospital CRBN incident planning are: The pre-hospital emergency medical services work in coordination with the Fire Department, Police and others National Security Forces. Decontamination and medical management of the victims are performed also by these pre-hospital emergency medical systems. Teams must have personal protective equipment and the training to use it. Rapid deployment of the nesecarry

inefficient and reactive. From the affected individual’s perspective, recovery and reconstruction can be seen to be a bureaucratic nightmare – no one knowing what is going on, or having to go to multiple support organizations for similar things. From the aid provider's and nation state's perspective, there can be a disconnect between the support required and the aid provided.

Most fail to appreciate that recovery and reconstruction operations are not quickly resolved; they can continue for years and change over time. The organizations developed to manage these events have to be adaptable and innovative; but more importantly they have to ensure that the longer term objectives are foremost in the planning and delivery activities. The recovery and reconstruction activities required to manage the multitude of issues, stakeholders, specialists, contractors and well intentioned individuals are the same as those for managing complex projects. But we do not manage it as a complex project. The question is why don't we?

A new platform for recovery and reconstruction management needs to be considered; a platform to that utilizes a private-public partnership to its best advantage. This platform recognizes that communities, business, and Government may no longer have sufficient resources and experience to deal with the complexity of recovery operations. Each may have expertise and knowledge in a specific area, however with the primary focus on response, there may be no longer sufficient “organizational knowledge” to structure, coordinate and manage the recovery, restoration and reconstruction activities.

By using an example case, the development and implementation of the public-private partnership will be outlined and discussed. The efficiencies and effectiveness of the partnerships and framework in addressing the long term needs and requirements of nation states, communities and individuals will be demonstrated. Keywords: Recovery Management, Public-Private Partnerships, Resilience, Sustainability Occupational health of front line workers responding to earthquakes in New Zealand: workplace cultures- vulnerability, resistance and resilience. LOVELOCK, Kirsten Marina (1); MCBRIDE, David (1); SHEPHERD, Daniel (2); BILLINGTON, Rex (2) 1: University of Otago, New Zealand; 2: Auckland University of Technology Presenting author: LOVELOCK, Kirsten Marina [email protected] This paper draws on a cohort study being conducted by a multidisciplinary team which focuses on a range of front line workers in Christchurch, New Zealand responding to earthquakes since September 2010 and February 2011 when a 7.1 magnitude quake resulted in the loss of 186 lives and city devastation. The study explores occupational health outcomes for these workers while simultaneously following the health of their significant other support people. Temporality is often suspended in disaster research in relation to wider social and cultural relations. Yet of course responses by front line workers are embedded within a specific social and cultural history and what has happened and is happening at home and work shapes how they respond to these events. A reflection

to acquire the information of the major Japanese auto seller in China and Sino-Japanese joint venture auto companies about the effect of this disaster, including total loss of these companies, duration of the effect, sectors that suffered the heaviest influence and other negative effects. This study will provide valuable insight for better understanding of the overall impacts of catastrophe in the context of globalization, especially on the industry, and help to work out effective coping strategies to achieve the international integrated risk management for catastrophe. Keywords: the Great East Japan Earthquake, economic impact, auto industry, China Integrated management of the mangrove forest ecosystem for improved climate resilience in Vietnam LONG, Tran Kim Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam Presenting author: LONG, Tran Kim [email protected] Vietnam is located in the tropical monsoon area - one of the five storm prone areas in the Asia Pacific region and is seen as one of the 5 countries in the world that are most vulnerable to sea level rise. Over the past 5 years, on average, disasters have resulted in the deaths of 400 people and caused economic losses of between 1 -1,5% of GDP. Therefore, the Government of Vietnam has paid great efforts to climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) while improving environmental management and community resilience. Under the Government’s political guidance, a comprehensive institutional and policy framework has been set up at both national and sub-national level and an integrated approach has been applied which includes coordinated interdisciplinary and participatory processes, where local communities are seen as the driving force. In particular, the natural protection function of mangrove forests can be used in CCA and DRR but mangroves are threatened by human impacts and by the impacts of climate change. The project “Management of Natural Resources in the Coastal Zone of Soc Trang Province” is testing innovative approaches to integrated management of mangrove forest ecosystem for improved CCA and DRR. The approach recognizes that planting alone is of little use and that newly planted mangroves must also be protected from human impacts such as destructive fishing methods. Innovative planting techniques which mimic natural regeneration, such as planting in high densities close to established trees, have been tested. Bamboo wave breakers and T-shaped fences which reduce erosion and stimulate sedimentation are used as a prerequisite for mangrove rehabilitation in erosion sites. Three years of co-management implementation has shown that co-management is an effective way of maintaining and enhancing the protection function of mangrove forests and at the same time providing livelihood for local communities. Old issues, new approaches - public private partnerships for effective recovery and reconstruction LOVE, Gavin John WorleyParsons, United States of America Presenting author: LOVE, Gavin John [email protected] Media images and reporting portray recovery and reconstruction management to be chaotic, uncoordinated,

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ESS project implements a series of tests in the field following pre-defined scenarios for validating several aspects of the system. The field trials are considered as the most attractive and effective dissemination and exploitation event of the ESS project. Due to the complex configuration of the prototype system there is a wide range of interested components that are tested and demonstrated in simulated or real conditions in the field with the involvement of operational actors. The field test of the ESS prototype allow familiarization with the ESS system and its components , on-hands experience to end-users, validation on the operational deployment and use of the platform in realistic situations, and feedback to the consortium as regards the end-users acceptance of the system itself.

There is a plan for implementing three different field tests of the ESS system during the years 2012 and 2013 in France. The respective scenarios include a fire in a forested area near the French-Italian borders (Vescavo pass), a flood event in the area of a crowded stadium (Nimes, FR) and a toxic substance release following a car accident in a road tunnel (Sisteron, FR). Several components (UAV, Air Baloon, UGV, wireless environmental sensors, IMSI catcher etc) are used during the tests and their integration to the ESS web platform is validated. Furthermore the integration of applications for traffic monitoring, toxic cloud dispersion, forest fire propagation etc is demonstrated during the tests. Operating ESS under different scenarios is needed in order to test the system’s capabilities in different kinds of crises using a variety of data sources and relevant systems and applications. Two of these field tests performed during the first semester of 2012 have provided several results and lessons learned for potential users of the ESS system which will be presented and discussed during this session. Human settlement indices for bushfire risk in Australia MARCH, Alan Peter (1); GROENHART, Lucy (1); LEONARD, Justin (2) 1: University of Melbourne; 2: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Presenting author: MARCH, Alan Peter [email protected] In the context of increasing fire risks resulting from climate change, metropolitan areas in Australia are growing quickly. This growth is exposing increasing numbers of houses to bushfire threats. There is a need for improved bushfire assessment tools at the local and strategic planning level, for existing and proposed settlements to ensure that new housing is appropriately located and designed. In addition, existing settlements facing high fire risks can be improved. Current design guides tend to focus on individual buildings, giving little comprehensive attention to the arrangements of settlements overall, a form of maladaptation that may actually encourage increased amounts of settlement in areas of high bushfire incidence.

The paper reports on new research in Australia developing indices of human settlement fire vulnerability, allowing broad analysis of existing and proposed settlements in fire prone areas. The suitability indices assist in determining the best locations for growth, the best patterns of urban growth in

on the recruitment and retention process demonstrates clearly that culturally embedded and socially entrenched contentious labour relations for some of the front line workers in particular firefighters play a significant role in how they have responded and coped with the earthquakes. For some workers, shifting perceptions of danger and blame underpin workplace culture and their calculations of risk. This tension with respect to labour relations leads to resistance toward their workplace conditions and their employers. At this stage it appears that resistance to workplace conditions and employers may in the short term assist resilience amongst some of these workers by reinforcing the collective and insularity and ensuring that workplace conditions remain an internal and addressable threat. In contrast, the on-going earthquakes as natural disasters are easily externalised, and with respect to temporality, as the earthquakes come they are quickly put behind them. Whereas industrial unease is on-going, relentless and unresolved. The question is: Is the vulnerability which underpins the resistance a sustainable response in an environment of lost workplaces, temporary quarters, lost homes and an uncertain landscape? Keywords: front-line, workers, resistance, resilience Informed response via satellite based technologies MACINNES, Iain Hay DigitalGlobe, United Kingdom Presenting author: MACINNES, Iain Hay [email protected] DigitalGlobe owns and operates the most agile and sophisticated constellation of high-resolution commercial earth imaging satellites. QuickBird, WorldView-1 and WorldView-2 together are capable of collecting over 500 million km2 of quality imagery per year with intraday revisit around the globe. Attending this presentation, you will learn how DigitalGlobe’s satellite constellation is used to monitor natural and manmade major disasters, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, tropical cyclones and fires. Digital Globe also monitors civil unrest, refugee displacement and military operation on a global scale.

DigitalGlobe’s analysis team uses a number of international sources to quickly identify crisis events around the globe. Once identified, imagery of the affected areas is collected. Maintaining the largest commercial image library in the world enables us to compare pre and post event images to effectively determine the scale and impact of a disaster. DigitalGlobe’s FirstLook Service supports the rapid acquisition, processing and disseminating of imagery via our web based technologies. This presentation provides a brief overview of DigitalGlobe’s use of open source methodologies to improve response times for acquisition and delivery of very high resolution satellite imagery in the immediate aftermath of major disasters. It will highlight the need for alert based messaging formats to improve responsiveness. Keywords: Emergency Management, Informed Response Emergency Support System - ESS: System’s field tests MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien CEREN, FR Presenting author: MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien [email protected]

The results of this multi-scale approach give original elements to propose actions in terms of risk management, and develop a sustainable land use planning. 3D-simulation of integrated natural and man-made hazards MARININ, Igor (1,2); KABANIKHIN, Sergey (2); MARCHUK, Andrey (2,3); KRIVOROTKO, Olga (3); KARAS, Adel (1); KHIDASHELI, David (1) 1: Wapmerr, Switzerland; 2: Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Russian Federation; 3: Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation Presenting author: KABANIKHIN, Sergey [email protected] We describe mathematical models of tsunami propagation and earthquakes. We use numerical simulation for modeling long wave’s propagation, tsunami runup, solving inverse problems, estimation of risk and losses. New mathematical approaches and software allowed arranging database management and the entire destruction scenario visualization. New approaches and strategies as well as mathematical tools and software are to be shown. The long joint investigations by researches of Institute of Mathematical Geophysics and Computational Mathematics SB RAS and specialists from WAPMERR and Informap allow to produce a special theoretical approaches, numerical methods and software for tsunami and earthquake modeling (for example, modeling of propagation and runup of tsunami waves on coastal areas), visualization, risk estimation of tsunami, earthquakes, and other hazards. The algorithms of the operational calculations of the origin and forms of the tsunami source are developed. The system TSS (Tsunami Seismic Source) numerically simulates the source of tsunami and/or earthquake and includes a possibility to solve the direct and the inverse problem [1]. It becomes possible to involve advanced mathematical results to improve models and to increase the resolution of the inverse problems. Using TSS one can construct maps of risks, the online scenario of disasters, estimation of potential damage of buildings and roads. One of the main tools for the numerical modeling is the finite volume method which allows us to achieve stability with respect to insertion errors, as well as the optimum computing speed [2]. The developed software system is planned to create technology "no frost", realizing a steady stream of direct and inverse problems: solving the direct problem, the visualization and comparison with data from sensing, solving the inverse problem (correction of the model parameters). The main objective of further work is the creation of workstation operating emergency duty close to real situations. Keywords: Natural hazards, man-maid hazards, tsunami, earthquake, 3D GIS, numerical modelling, loss assessment, forecast, historical data collection DRR in fragile context (Afghanistan) MARTHALER, Esther Helvetas Swiss Intercooepration Presenting author: MARTHALER, Esther [email protected] HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation has particularly gained experience in the field of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in a fragile context through its DRR project in Afghanistan

areas deemed suitable, and the ways that existing settlements in fire risk areas could be made less vulnerable. Specifically, it examines what elements of urban settlement morphology, in parallel with particular vegetation and topography types, impact upon bushfire risks to life and property; which risks can be ascribed to Australia’s existing and proposed settlements currently; and, how well extant settlement policy regulates and mitigates bushfire risks. This research has been used to develop an index of inter-related factors that can be used as an assessment tool for existing and proposed human settlements in bushfire prone areas. Comparison of the index to extant policy has allowed for critique and improvement of existing planning regulations, spatial policy and design guides. Keywords: Bushfire, urban, planning, indices, Australia The multirisk approach for the Pays A3V, France, BRGM MARÇOT, Nathalie; MIRGON, Carola BRGM, France Presenting author: MARÇOT, Nathalie [email protected] The “Pays A3V” (Asse - Verdon - Vaïre - Var), located in the Alpes de Haute-Provence (southeast of France), is engaged in a process of sustainable development which aims to control, in particular, the land use evolution. This alpine land is particularly subject to major natural hazards which stay poorly known (landslide, torrential floods, forest fires, earthquakes…).

The objectives of this study are 1) an analysis of global risks across the country, through a cartographic atlas, and multi-hazards analysis (at scale 1/50000), 2) a multi risk analysis (at 1/25000) concerning two cities located in high-risk area, and 3) a proposal of risk management policy.

The multi-phenomenon analysis illustrates the comprehensive problem on the “Pays A3V” and the superposition of several hazards (up to 9 bunk hazards) on the same location is a strong marker (number of hazard issues on important areas, concentrations of population in the valleys…).

This analysis on two municipalities subject to many hazards (Allos and Castellane) aims to propose a comprehensive methodology in order to study more in detail these areas using existing documents such as hazard maps from Risk Prevention Planning, and to consider also the historical events associated with the hazards to study the possible impacts.

An investigation on impacts and damage has been carried out to identify, describe and evaluate each type of injury (physical and functional) and its consequences (impact). Each item physically assigned (person, properties, environment) is considered as generating a functional disorder (housing, education, transport) which itself causes impacts on different topics (social, economic, environmental).

Cross-analysis at communal scale, of hazards, issues and vulnerabilities have been made by categories of issues and type of damage depending touristic period.

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In addition to achieving the expected results, a key element in both projects, was the active participation of staff in each local authority. This led to increased awareness of disaster reduction, which spread to other local entities that were not part of the projects. Keywords: Disaster reduction; participation; local scale; risk management; emergency plans.

Rebuilding Cities after crises: Lessons learnt from urban disaster and conflictsAnsa MASAUDUN-Habitat, Nairobi, Kenya Presenting author: MASAUD, Ansa [email protected] disasters have a profound effect on local, regional, national and global socio-economic life. In 2011 alone, the cost of these is estimated at over $380 billion with the largest impacts in Christchurch, New Zealand, Sendai Province in Japan, and Bangkok and the delta regions surrounding it. The impacts of these events were not only felt within the countries they occurred: tangential impacts occurred throughout the affected countries, and around the world. Haiti earthquake in 2010 amplified the challenges humanitarians are facing in responding to emergencies in urban contexts. The latest wave of violence and conflict in Syria and Libya and ongoing humanitarian conflicts in Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan all demonstrate huge gaps in policies, tools, knowledge, coordination and approaches, which are based on rural and camp settings. While some of humanitarian organizations are exploring new methodologies for working within cities, relatively few have built internal capacity to function efficiently and effectively outside the rural theaters where current systems of delivery have been refined over the past decades where humanitarian work has concentrated. UN-Habitat is strengthening its capacity to provide support to these and other agencies, primarily through the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) representing much of the humanitarian community. Our Organization’s key comparative advantage is our ability to field competent urban systems professionals to provide such support to other humanitarian agencies through an advisory function. The presentation will highlight lessons learnt from the agency’s engagement in responding to crises in urban contexts and present the ongoing work to strengthen this area within the IASC.

Understanding and Measuring Urban Resilience: A new UN-Habitat's initiative MASAUD, Ansa UN-Habitat, Nairobi, Kenya Presenting author: MASAUD, Ansa [email protected] The cost of urban disasters during 2011 alone is estimated at over $380 billion with the largest impacts felt in Christchurch, New Zealand; Sendai Province in Japan, and Bangkok and environs. The social and economic impact on these cities was not only felt within the immediate areas, but also nationally and globally. With 50% of the world’s population already in cities and substantial projected urban population increases over the coming decades, the rationale for new tools and approaches that strengthen the capacity of

where it won the renowned Swiss-Re Resource award. In collaboration with local authorities and communities, HSI implements the program in Northern provinces of Afghanistan whose goal is to contribute to improved livelihoods of poor rural population by reducing flood risks and increasing long-term land productivity.

The implementation of DRR in a fragile context requires an even more careful risk assessment in order to fully understand the root causes of vulnerability and to develop DRR sensitive measures. The Sustainable Livelihood Approach is a favorable tool to support risk reduction and strengthen all the six assets that contribute to sustainable livelihoods, making them also more resilient.

The relationship of the two topics is mutually reinforcing. If we do not consider conflict and fragility when working on DRR, we may reinforce tensions and have an adverse effect on conflict leading to a vicious circle.

Identifying the relationships between different stakeholders and their burning issues, we can facilitate local decision-making processes and bridge divisions between competing groups that produce suitable interventions to mitigate disaster risks and at the same time build trust and resilience.

The joint approach tackles the root causes of vulnerability and contributes positively to development benefits in the immediate term, risk and vulnerability reduction in the long term.

A joint approach contributes to shape the conditions for incremental and transformational changes.

DRR measures should build on and strengthen existing tendencies for positive change and social resilience within a society and foster trust. The recently developed 3-step guide by HSI in collaboration with the Center of Peacebuilding (KOFF) allows for an analysis in a more systematic manner. Participation and reduction of local disasters MARTÍN, Sebastián (1); DORTA, Pedro (2); ROMERO, Carmen (2); MAYER, Pablo (3); DÍAZ, Jaime (4) 1: City of Santa Cruz Tenerife, Spain, Kingdom of; 2: University of La Laguna, Spain, Kingdom of; 3: University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain, Kingdom of; 4: Complutense University of Madrid, Spain, Kingdom of Presenting author: MARTÍN, Sebastián [email protected] Hereby we would like to present the results of two research projects aimed at disaster reduction at the local level. In the first project, we analyzed the risk management in eleven cities in Latin America and Europe, through the Disaster Risk Management Index (DRMi). This method was developed by a program of the Inter-American Development Bank, and used in twelve countries and two cities in Latin America and the Caribbean. The second project was to provide advice to nine cities in the Canary Islands (Spain) for the preparation of their emergency plans. The research was funded by the "Urb-Al" programme of the European Union, the City of Santa Cruz Tenerife (Spain) and the Department of Security and Emergency of the Government of the Canary Islands (Spain).

use and integrated participatory approaches would provide a stable platform to address present and future problem of changes. Keywords: Kilimanjaro, Mwanga District, Resource Benefits,. Participation, Knowledge. How do different geohazards affect mortality and economic losses? MCADOO, Brian G.; KRENITSKY, Nicole; AUGENSTEIN, Jared; ZELTZER, Matthew Yale-NUS College, Singapore Presenting author: MCADOO, Brian G. [email protected] In 2010, a Ms=7.0 earthquake hit the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince causing an estimated 316,000 deaths along with $8B USD in economic losses in a struggling economy with a $7B USD gross domestic product. Also in 2010, a heat wave in Russia resulted in a high death toll (55,000) and $400M USD in economic losses. These two events in nations with disparate vulnerabilities led us to expand the scope to all disasters between 2000 and 2010 and ask, how do the physical nature hazards affect mortality and economic loss in countries with different levels of wealth?

Previous studies show how economic losses and mortality affect low income countries during disasters, and how income generation responds to disasters. To understand how vulnerabilities are exploited by the physical nature of different types of hazards (seismic, geomorphic and atmospheric), we examine patterns of economic loss and mortality in countries with varying income levels for earthquakes, storms, mass movements, extreme temperatures, floods, drought and wildfires. We find that losses from earthquakes, storms, and floods follow the prescribed notion that natural disasters cause more deaths in low income nations and greater economic losses in higher income nations. Extreme temperatures and wildfires, however, affect high income countries almost exclusively while mass movements and drought generate greater losses for low-income nations.

Public and private investment in disaster risk reduction (DRR) must consider how hazards cause damage, and how investments aimed at reinforcing vulnerabilities in low through high income nations can be made more effective. DRR spending at the national level may be misallocated leading to unnecessary loss of life and money, so there is a clear need to determine how governments invest in reducing risk. Only by taking a country and disaster-specific approach will governments and private entities be able to minimize their risk. Keywords: disaster, losses, statistics, economic, mortality A community-driven approach to material management in post-disaster reconstruction MCGRATH, Riona; VON MEDING, Jason; OYEDELE, Lukumon Queen's University Belfast, United Kingdom Presenting author: VON MEDING, Jason [email protected] It has been said that a major disaster compacts 20 years of rebuilding into a few years of reconstruction, presenting

local administrations and citizens to better protect human, economic and natural assets of our towns and cities is strong.

While advances are being made in shifting emphasis from risk reduction to resilience, no means of calibrating urban resilience has been developed to date leaving city and town administrations understanding only what their inherent vulnerabilties may be. There remain gaps to discuss in strategies and tools to ensure cities actually do become measurably more resilient.

The primary justification for the URI Programme (URIP) therefore is developing an integrated forward planning urban systems approach founded on the principles of ‘resilience’ that dynamically underpin improved capacity to protect urban citizens and their assets and recover from all hazards. ‘Urban Resilience’ refers to the ability of any urban system, to withstand and recover quickly from ‘catastrophic events.’ The URIP fills a large gap providing forward-looking, integrated, multi-hazard multi-stakeholder, urban systems approach to planning and developing urban settlements. Keywords: Urban Resilience, measuring resilience Climate change, natural resources, institution and the value of research from a global to a local perspective in Mwanga district Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic of Presenting author: MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade [email protected] Three years of multidisciplinary research, by a team of researchers from the USA and Tanzania, funded by the National Science Foundation, on climate change and its impact on the livelihoods of people in Mwanga district Kilimanjaro region has shed light on the efforts by communities to cope and to adapt to changes. The limitations of generalized conventional approaches to “”fix” climate change problems through, adaptation and mitigation formulas contrasts with the more dynamic approaches of several segments of the communities. This presentation highlights only three preliminary observations. First, it exposes the existing and underlying causes of risks and vulnerabilities. Secondly the conventional generalized almost monopolistic adaptation approaches have limitations which must be recognized and corrective action is not an option but a necessity. Thirdly, what also emerges are the need to relook and pay attention to resources, such as water, space, “forests” all of which have been so much taken for granted. A forest for instance is more than trees. Within this context the links between national and local institutions, and the communities assume a new significance. Since “climate change” has an impact on all sectors it means incorporating improved flows of information, better use of science and a reassessment of who gains and who losses in resource utilization. There are compelling reasons that transparency and responsibility of reconfigured both private and public institutions could bring several improvements. Actions should not be anchored on formulas but on equitable and sustainable development; reduce risks of social conflicts. Solutions should minimize disasters, create opportunities, for the use of both local and scientific knowledge to logically address constraints. Attention to intergenerational knowledge

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knowledge gaps and recommendations MEYER, Volker (1); BECKER, Nina (1); MARKANTONIS, Vasileios (1); SCHWARZE, Reimund (1); AERTS, Jeroen C. J. H. (2); VAN DEN BERGH, Jeroen C. J. M. (3); BOUWER, Laurens M. (2); BUBECK, Philip (4); CIAVOLA, Paolo (5); DANIEL, Vanessa (2); GENOVESE, Elisabetta (6); GREEN, Colin (7); HALLEGATTE, Stéphane (6); KREIBICH, Heidi (4); LEQUEUX, Quentin (5); LOCHNER, Bernhard (8); LOGAR, Ivana (3); PAPYRAKIS, Elissaios (2); PFURTSCHELLER, Clemens (8); POUSSIN, Jennifer (2); PRZYLUSKI, Valentin (6); THIEKEN, Annegret H. (8,9); THOMPSON, Paul (7); VIAVATTENE, Christophe (7) 1: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research- UFZ; 2: Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam- IVM-VU; 3: Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona- ICTA-UAB; 4: German Research Centre for Geosciences- GFZ; 5: Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di Ferrara- UniFe; 6: Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines/Centre International de Recherches sur l'Environnement et le Développement- SMASH-CIRED; 7: Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University- FHRC-MU; 8: Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Austria- UIBK; 9: University of Potsdam, Germany Presenting author: BECKER, Nina [email protected] Effective and efficient reduction of, or adaptation to, natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards in order to develop sustainable risk management strategies. The current methods that assess the costs of different natural hazards employ a diversity of terminologies and approaches for different hazards and impacted sectors. This makes it difficult to arrive at robust, comprehensive and comparable cost figures.

The CONHAZ (Costs of Natural Hazards) project aimed to compile and synthesise current knowledge on cost assessment methods in order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management and adaptation planning. In order to achieve this, CONHAZ has adopted a comprehensive approach, considering natural hazards ranging from droughts, floods and coastal hazards to Alpine hazards, as well as different impacted sectors and cost types (direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and costs of risk mitigation). Its specific objectives have been 1) to compile the state-of-the-art methods for cost assessment; 2) to analyse and assess these methods in terms of technical aspects, as well as terminology, data quality and availability, and research gaps; and 3) to synthesise resulting knowledge into recommendations and to identify further research needs.

This presentation summarises the main results of CONHAZ. These comprise findings regarding best practices, overall knowledge gaps and recommendations for practice and research as well as a vision on cost assessments of natural hazards and their integration in decision making. The presentation will give an overview on general as well as hazard- specific findings and outline the recommendations that include issues such as comprehensiveness, uncertainties, improvement of data sources, improvement of methods, future dynamics of risk, distribution of risks and risk transfer, knowledge exchange, as well as cost assessment as decision

inherent environmental and social, impacts and risks (DRM, 2011). Those involved in initial response are faced with shortages of resources for short and long term construction as well as an abundance of structural debris to handle. The rapid response to reconstruction efforts demanded can compromise the standard of building to meet the immediate need and neglect the opportunity to transform materials which may appear initially as obstacles into a positive contribution to recovery. Measures must be in place to ensure that, while aiming to meet the construction need as rapidly as possible, the performance potential of materials is maximised, thus improving pre-disaster building standards and reducing the risk of re-occurring disaster impacts. While post-disaster reconstruction offers this opportunity to explore the improvement of existing building practices and materials, new concepts must be balanced against local skills, cultures, and long-term development (Silva, 2010). This form of informed response demands a high quantity of up-to-date and relevant information relating to the post-disaster scenario and the local context ensuring reconstruction efforts are driven by communities’ long term, as well as immediate, resources and capabilities as these will, in the end, be what sustains them. The paper focuses on the issues surrounding the management of materials specific to a post-disaster reconstruction context, exploring an approach that is driven by the resources that remain, seeking to enhance their performance by access to wider sources of knowledge and supplies. It aims to provide guidance for humanitarian reconstruction contributors by outlining these key issues and exploring a community-driven approach that would address them. Such a strategy would ensure communities are empowered by development of their construction capabilities as well as the physical structures that they inhabit. Keywords: materials, post-disaster, reconstruction, community The Protection of environmental refugees through international public law MEUTSCH, Anja University Cologne, Germany Presenting author: MEUTSCH, Anja [email protected] International law must adapt itself to the realities of its age. One of the most pressing of these realities is the phenomenon of the so called “environmental refugees”. The particular question which needs to be addressed is whether the protection of "environmental refugees" is already sufficiently provided for in today’s international law or whether the "refugees" are facing a legal gap? This question, in turn, returns us to such basic questions as: What is international law? How is it created? How does or could it solve specific social problems like the protection of environmental refugees? And if there is no protective international law concerning environmental refugees currently, how could the creation of such a law adequately address the issue? Can law provide a solution at all? Or are there other, possibly, better options to address the matter? The present study tries to provide a foundation in order to explore the particular question. Keywords: Climate Change and Migration, Displacement, Environmental Refugees Cost assessment of natural hazards – state-of-the-art,

to “re-construct” the social system into an integrated system to tackle such emergencies. As per the Global Assessment Report," Countries report little progress in mainstreaming disaster risk reduction considerations into social, economic, urban, environmental and infrastructural planning and development."The HFA principles and MDGs provide the guiding principles to every nation in the world that has led to the formation of national disaster management bodies whose mandate is to formulate the national disaster management plan but the challenge to convert these plans into implementable and operational plan remains to be addressed. This paper seeks to present two successful case studies from the world’s largest democracy – the Indian federal states of Rajasthan and Haryana.Through their state disaster management plans an attempt has been made to “reconstruct” the “response mechanism” in Rajasthan that integrates the chain of command beginning from the chief minister of state to the village head in the community. Haryana adopted a financial mechanism on the lines of the UNOCHA Central Emergency Relief Fund that makes funds available within seven minutes to any far-flung village in-case of emergency. The underlying factor was to bring standardization amongst the authorities to tackle the masses through these mechanisms for a coordinated response at every level and effective recovery towards building a resilient society.Keywords: Integrative Disaster Risk Management,Framework Global perspective on seismic risk reduction and resilient disaster reconstruction MIYAMOTO, H Kit; GILANI, Amir S Miyamoto International, United States of America Presenting author: MIYAMOTO, H Kit [email protected] Worldwide, nearly 40% of the largest cities and hundreds of millions of people live in areas that can experience major earthquakes, resulting in large of casualties, interruption of lifelines, and placing large burden on the regional and national economy. Earthquakes in Haiti, Christchurch and East Japan have had long-term impact on societies. The 2010 Haiti Earthquake affected 3 million people and has still left over 300,000 displaced. An unprecedented reconstruction, incorporating local materials and masons but based on international earthquake-resistant principals, is currently underway to repair and strengthen 120,000 damaged buildings and allows people to return to safe homes and produce a seismically resilient community in this developing country. The 2011 earthquakes effecting Japan and New Zealand showed the need for seismic risk mitigation in developed countries. In New Zealand, older and newer buildings were damaged. The damage to newer buildings is not unexpected because the modern building codes intend is life safety and not resilient communities. Over 50% of 2400 buildings in the city center required demolition. Over $20 billion insurance loss is expected, resulting in a drop in the insurance capacity to be dropped and threatening the national investment environment. This issue is currently under discussion with the goal of reducing seismic risk for the existing buildings using high performance seismic protective devices. In Japan, large earthquake and tsunami were expected. However, the M9 East Japan earthquake caused a much higher Tsunami which overcame the sea walls and devastated over 500 km

support. Keywords: natural hazards, cost assessment, mitigation, adaptation, risk management Private sector-civil society partnership opportunities for resilience building MITCHELL, Andrew Disaster Risk Management Consultant, France Presenting author: MITCHELL, Andrew [email protected] There is a strong historical background of the private sector working with local communities and civil society groups in response to major disasters across all continents. However, all parties increasingly recognise the need to engage in more organised and strategic partnerships over a longer time period between increasingly cyclical disaster events. This is done in order to maximise and protect investments in communities and business, and to more effectively use resources to build the resilience of community and business systems to disaster. There are increasing efforts to link the private sector and civil society at regional and national levels across different sectors, recognising the professionalism, economic modelling and management, research and resources of the private sector coupled with the demonstrated impact, understanding and operational capacity of civil society at the local level.

Building resilience for communities means protecting, strengthening and diversifying how people manage their livelihoods. For this to work, this means coordinated action across multiple sectors involving partnerships between communities, civil society, private sector and the government. In particular, there are opportunities and examples for partnerships that analyse and forecast risk; for social protection (transfer of cash or resources), the use of financial services, and of offsetting risk with microinsurance; reinforcing value chains/logistics, infrastructure and services (construction, water and sanitation, shelter and provision of food); logistics; conventional and alternative energy; telecommunications and marketing; and, human resources training and management. Partnerships between the private sector and civil society can be harnessed via bilateral partnerships, consortia and specific platforms (or coordination groups) from the local to the global level. Integrative disaster risk management: case study from India on social and economic re-construction” MITRA, Swati; GULATI, Naresh (,) MICRO INSURANCE ACADEMY, India, Republic of Presenting author: MITRA, Swati [email protected] Eminent Sociologist Karl Mannheim known for “sociology of planned re-construction” comes close to the contemporary chaos in disaster management prevailing all over the world. Mannheim speaks of “democratic planning” which is not economic planning alone but, overall social re-construction! In his book “diagnosis of our time” he says, “the great psychological and sociological problem in the future is (...) how to organize inarticulate masses and crowds into various forms of groups.”In other words, with climate change being a reality and consequent rise in natural disasters impacting the developed and developing countries there is an urgent need

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[email protected] Social media is playing a key role in advancing messages in a community. Political leaders have recognized the impact and speed from using such tools and reaching a broader audience. A redefined “risk governance culture” is emerging, a more informed community who in return will demand better responses to its political leaders. The role of international organizations to channel information and findings to a wider public other than national governments in an accessible and practical way is only growing. Communities and their local leaders are enthusiastic to participate in this information exchange leading to their social progress. UNISDR and its Making Cities Resilient campaign aims to reach a variety of local actors, to foster dialogue and partnerships amongst the different sectors of society, collectively discussing better ways to build a more effective risk governance culture. The campaign offers tools to guide processes and start reflecting on how to put together the different local actors in one collective framework with a single strategy to reduce risk and reinforcing the risk governance culture. Agricultural risk micro-insurance product for Mozambique MORTGAT, Christian P. (1); STOJANOVSKI, Pane (2); BOISSONNADE, Auguste C. (2); BERNHARDT, Alex (3) 1: Risk Management Solutions, Inc.; 2: Asia Risk Centre, Inc.; 3: Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC Presenting author: STOJANOVSKI, Pane [email protected] Agricultural insurance in developing countries is high on the public policy agenda. There have been great efforts by FAO, IFC, World Bank, regional banks, NGOs and others to launch a number of weather index based schemes for agricultural insurance based on the ease of administering these programs and fast payouts. The work presented in this paper has been collaboration between risk management solutions, Asia Risk Centre, and Guy Carpenter under a grant from the International Financial Corporation IFC (grant # 579027). The authors gratefully acknowledge the support and the funding of the project by IFC. Weather based indices ideally require densely spaced weather stations. In the case of many developing countries, Mozambique specifically in this case, face significant data challenges. The country only has 113 stations in 69 districts, while 73 districts are without stations. The problem is addressed by using additional data sources (reanalyzed gridded data), remote sensing data, and their integration in the risk assessment and product development. Limitations and assumptions in development of this data is also taken into account. Basis risk and its asymmetrical distribution are also issues with the highest impacts being on individual policies and primary layers and much smaller impacts on the higher reinsurance layers. This paper summarizes the approaches and issues in developing index based solutions under the severe constraints of low quality data, short and incomplete time series and ways how these issues have been addressed. The underlying conclusion of the paper is that risk quantification and product design for micro-insurance is not a micro modeling exercise, on the contrary it involves the use of different methodologies and combinations of technologies to resolve these challenges. Proposals are made to alleviate some of the key issues. Keywords: Microinsurance, Agricultural Risk, Mozambique

of coast line with major cities. The process of recovery and reconstruction has begun using commercial sector causing an economic boom. The observations show the need for: systematic seismic risk reduction especially in developing countries, understanding the limitations building codes, c) reconstruction by activating commercial sector: A resilient and economically vibrant society can arise from tragedies Keywords: Earthquakes, Risk reduction, Reselinet reconstruction, Privatre-public partnership, Advanced engineering Risk Management of Natural Disasters in Morocco: a project of Global and Integrated Strategy MOHAMED, Tabyaoui Government of Morocco Presenting author: MOHAMED, Tabyaoui [email protected] Morocco as the rest of the countries is faced with potentially extreme events, due to the number of natural phenomena. These risks are currently managed by many departments. In order to overcome this fragmented management and better coordinate the efforts of various departments, the Government with support from the World Bank and the Swiss Cooperation has launched in 2009 the project of preparing a comprehensive and integrated strategy for managing natural risk reduction in Morocco.

The preparation of such a strategy must go with a phase of identification and assessment of these risks before developing the legal and institutional structure beside the financial resources for the risk strategy implementation.

A probabilistic study has been finalized by June 2012 and has been incorporated in GIS based software. This model aims to assess the exposure to natural disasters in Morocco and the possible consequences on populations, strategic infrastructure and the economy. Initially extreme events considered by this model are droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and landslides.

The probabilistic model is developed directly with the technical ministries as part of a participatory approach to prepare with each of them several scenarios that will both identify with sufficient precision the sectors exposure levels and also identify preventive measures that could be implemented to reduce vulnerability in each sector.

The various scenarios are then aggregated nationally to make informed choices and to prepare a comprehensive and integrated national strategy for prevention and risk management of natural disasters. This program will enable Morocco to better anticipate natural risks, prepare the necessary budget and therefore better control the impacts of extreme events. Keywords: Country Risk Management, DRR Strategy, Morocco, Risk Assessment The role of local actors for creating effective risk governance culture MOLIN-VALDES, Helena United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) Presenting author: MOLIN-VALDES, Helena

Presenting author: MOHAMMADI, Sakineh [email protected] The earthquake's risk in Tehran metropolitan has been evaluated very high according to the geographical and geophysical situation, active faults around the city and also historical earthquake. An overview on these historical earthquakes in Iran shows that Tehran with the old name Rey has been destroyed with major earthquake several times. Event of an earthquake in Tehran, all the infrastructures like water supply network would have some direct damages. The secondary damages like changes in the water quality, disability of the firefighting stations, and shortage of safe water in hospitals and emergency settlement camp and also providing drinking water are among the greatest challenges after the earthquake. After the earthquake, continuity of water services and recovery network phase is the most important action and the priority goal in subsystems of treatment, storage and distribution and transfer water supply. The demand from drinking water to sanitary use will increase day by day in disaster situation. Regarding Tehran's population that is about 8 million people, "the emergency drinking water management in Tehran metropolitan" for emergency cases definitely needs planning and preparation in advanced. In order to guarantee the consecutive services in water supply network and ensuring of the needed amount of water in any situation, the necessity of a strategy based "Multilayer Water Supply Network (MWSN)" to manage the drinking water in emergency cases is clear. This paper is a case study on Tehran metropolitan based on the population density, existence water network, reservoir and wells distribution, vulnerability of the water network and also the local access which have been used to assess the main need of the water in the first 45 days after the earthquake for 375 Tehran's different boroughs (Mahaleh), using GIS and the methods of emergency water provide. Keywords: Emergency Drinking Water -water Continuity services - water infrastructure- multilayer water supply network- earthquake Annualized catastrophe mortalities and driving long term risk reduction MUIR-WOOD, Robert RMS Ltd, United Kingdom Presenting author: MUIR-WOOD, Robert [email protected] While a range of mortality statistics can readily be compared across countries worldwide for infant mortality, death in childbirth, or deaths from HIV (etc.) the extreme tail characteristics of natural catastrophes makes it impossible to compare equivalent catastrophe mortality statistics. However, use of casualty catastrophe loss models, calibrated against actual casualty statistics for that territory and set of perils (including the relevant local exposures and vulnerabilities) provides a means to generate 'average annualized casualty' information that can become the equivalent of other annualized mortality metrics. To generate such consistent data worldwide, countries should be assisted, and where appropriate, audited with an internationally consistent approach to modeling. Having achieved an internationally consistent catastrophe casualty metric (the 'annual expected % mortality from natural catastrophe') it becomes possible to rank countries and better prioritize assistance. Each high risk country could then be assigned a long term target of

Beyond pandemics: a whole of society approach to disaster preparedness MOSSELMANS, Michael Lodowick World Food Programme, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: MOSSELMANS, Michael Lodowick [email protected] Lessons can be learned and applied from pandemic preparedness to multi-hazard preparedness. Towards a Safer World is an inter-agency process that identified lessons and practices from pandemic preparedness that have relevance for other emerging infectious diseases; low-frequency, high-impact events; and complex, unpredictable, slow-onset disasters which impact multiple countries and sectors. 5 prominent lessons are:

1. The value of a whole of society approach. Pandemic requires a concerted, collaborative effort that brings together the experience and resources of government, civil society, business, media and military.

2. Fear of pandemic stimulated advances in business continuity planning and contingency planning. We came to understand the importance of planning to deal with the impact of a disaster on our own organisations’ ability to function. BCP strengthens resilience to all threats.

3. We developed experience of the value of simulation and table-top exercises. These improve communications, identify impacts on critical services, clarify roles and raise awareness. They serve as a springboard for subsequent actions. They are important for testing plans and identifying gaps and weaknesses.

4. We learnt a lot about communications. Timely sharing of effective public messaging is essential to sustain public confidence and reduce the risk of disorder. New social media tools are increasingly important. Risk communication is not sufficient. It needs to be accompanied by social mobilization, dialogue with communities and behaviour change communication which takes account of different perceptions of risk and cultural barriers to change.

5. The disruption a severe pandemic would cause to communications and services points to the importance of communities being ready to fend for themselves in areas of hygiene, food security, healthcare and resumption of income-generation. We should prioritise empowering communities and include them in planning for preparedness and response. A proportion of available resources should focus on building the capacity of sub-national stakeholders. Keywords: pandemic preparedness, business continuity planning, whole-of-society readiness Management of the continuity services in water infrastructure (case study: emergency drinking water management in Tehran metropolitan) MOZAFARI, Abdollah; JEDDI, Seyed Majid; MOHAMMADI, Sakineh; JALALI, Gholam Reza Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO), Iran, Islamic Republic of

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Group Ltd. (www.arup.com/internationaldevelopment) Characteristics of safe and resilient communities and key determinants of successful disaster risk reduction programmes MUKHIER, Mohammed Omer Community Preparedness and Risk Reduction Department, IFRC Presenting author: MUKHIER, Mohammed Omer [email protected] As the world’s largest humanitarian relief and development network, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has significant knowledge and experience in implementing community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) programmes. Building safe and resilient communities is at the heart of these CBDRR programmes.

The humanitarian relief and recovery operation following the Tsunami in 2004 provided IFRC with a unique opportunity to analyze the two key challenges in implementation of its programmes; a) to gauge how we articulate resilience in a meaningful way to the target communities of CBDRR programmes and the CBDRR practitioners and b) to identify the critical factors conducive to the achievement of the needed impact and sustainability in implementing CBDRR programmes in support of resilience building. To this end, IFRC commissioned an in-depth study of CBDRR programmes to define the characteristics of resilient communities and the key determinants of successful CBDRR programmes. This study was carried out by the ARUP International Development(1) in 2010-2011.

Drawing on documentation from the Tsunami Operation, broad-ranging literature review and participatory research in more than 30 communities, the study defined a safe and resilient community as:

1) Being knowledgeable and healthy,2) Being organized,3) Being connected,4) Having infrastructure and services,5) Having economic opportunities,6) Being able to manage its natural assets.(1) Arup International Development operates as a non-profit group within the ArupGroup Ltd. (www.arup.com/internationaldevelopment) Keywords: resilience characteristics, risk reduction, humitarian relief Critical infrastructure disruptions: a generic system dynamic approach for decision support MÜNZBERG, Thomas (1); COMES, Tina (2); SCHULTMANN, Frank (2) 1: 1Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Nuclear and Power Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of; 2: Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: MÜNZBERG, Thomas [email protected] Our daily life highly depends on the smooth operation of critical infrastructures (CIs) such as energy supply, information and communication, banking and finance,

natural catastrophe 'annual expected % mortality' reduction (for example at 10% or 20% per decade) which would be audited by remodeling the risk every five or ten years (including any change in expected catastrophe occurrence). The same modelling framework would be used to show the National Chief Risk Officer in that territory, where to apply the most cost effective actions to reduce natural catastrophe mortalities, balancing (and where possible combining) priorities with those of education or development. These actions could include: the tighter policing of building codes, implementation of retrofitting, provision of improved storm surge flood forecasting etc. Currently extreme natural catastrophes gather headlines when they happen but are neglected when they remain latent. Turning extreme tail risk into its annualized equivalent is a procedure that underlies all catastrophe insurance. It should now be harnessed to drive unrelenting pressure for disaster risk reduction. Keywords: catastrophe loss model, catastrophe mortality statistics, cost benefit analysis, extreme tail risk,

Cultural Role in Risk and Disaster Management, A case study from Uganda, Africa MUKASA, Abass Kampala Capital City Authority Presenting author: MUKASA, Abass [email protected] As the world’s largest humanitarian relief and development network, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has significant knowledge and experience in implementing community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) programmes. Building safe and resilient communities is at the heart of these CBDRR programmes.

The humanitarian relief and recovery operation following the Tsunami in 2004 provided IFRC with a unique opportunity to analyze the two key challenges in implementation of its programmes; a) to gauge how we articulate resilience in a meaningful way to the target communities of CBDRR programmes and the CBDRR practitioners and b) to identify the critical factors conducive to the achievement of the needed impact and sustainability in implementing CBDRR programmes in support of resilience building. To this end, IFRC commissioned an in-depth study of CBDRR programmes to define the characteristics of resilient communities and the key determinants of successful CBDRR programmes. This study was carried out by the ARUP International Development(1) in 2010-2011.

Drawing on documentation from the Tsunami Operation, broad-ranging literature review and participatory research in more than 30 communities, the study defined a safe and resilient community as:

1) Being knowledgeable and healthy,2) Being organized,3) Being connected,4) Having infrastructure and services,5) Having economic opportunities,6) Being able to manage its natural assets.(1) Arup International Development operates as a non-profit group within the Arup

preparedness efforts organized by the NGOs. They see them as good partners for local governments to cooperate with DRR matters for the future. Padang Pariaman is well off in simulations, but both officials and NGOs agree that the government needs to carry out additional simulations in other districts. To further develop the disaster preparedness efforts of the local government to implement disaster-preparedness programs should be based on public-private partnerships with media and NGOs as well as other interested stakeholders. Keywords: disaster preparedness, role of media Risk shrink: exploring the psychology of risk MURPHY, Sean Lootok, United States of America Presenting author: MURPHY, Sean [email protected] A comprehensive view of risk requires two systems of thought: the analytical side of risk, and the intuitive side of risk. While many of us rely on data to determine risk, we often overlook how our perception of threats can impact the way we respond in an incident. The psychology of risk drives a deeper understanding of our relationship to threats and the human element of risk. Consideration of behavioral and social sciences perspectives can help leaders leverage the analytic and intuitive as complementary ways for evaluating risk. Delving into the latest findings in behavioral risk research can teach us why humans perceive certain threats, why we react the way we do, and how we can train for the best response to an incident.

Understanding common fear factors – such as scale, immediacy, imaginability, lack of control, lack of choice, unfairness, impact, unfamiliarity, untrustworthy origin, and media coverage – help explain why we perceive some risks as more threatening than others, and how this affects the extent of our preparation against them. The way we perceive a risk influences our response, and our emotional perception often overrides fact or reason.

Our experience also affects the way we process risk; or how the regular operation of our minds and bodies is impacted in a threatening situation. The Stress-Performance Link, or the impact of stress on decision-making abilities and incident response; and examine sources of disaster-related stress and its impact on performance, seen in phenomena including “Person-Role Conflict”, “Cognitive Lock-In,” “Task Saturation,” and “Groupthink.” Keywords: risk, society and culture, behavioral science, risk psychology, incident response Understanding your risk environment MURPHY, Sean Lootok, United States of America Presenting author: MURPHY, Sean [email protected] Risk is highly complex, dynamic and connected. Business continuity management exists because we live and work in a risk environment.

Using criteria to categorize threats and leveraging risk assessment tools such as a risk matrix can help us evaluate

emergency services and transportation systems. CI failures can have catastrophic consequences. For instance, a severe storm with heavy snowfall led to a large-scale power breakdown in Germany in autumn 2005. The incident caused high economic losses and had serious impacts on the health sector and, transportation. Crisis management for CI failures is a challenge for decision makers, as CIs are highly interlaced. Since CI disruptions are rare, the knowledge about how CI disruptions can develop over time is limited. The effects to the CI network may extinguish or increase over time. These developments are not addressed in static approaches, which are often used to model CI disruptions. Crisis managers are under considerable pressure to manage these disruptions. For effective and efficient decision support a transparent analyses of the dynamic development of CI disruptions are needed. Our presentation demonstrates how a holistic system dynamics approach can be used to facilitate strategic decisions in the management of CI disruptions. System dynamics is a method that is designed to understand complex systems and to analyze the impact of a decision over time. By combining the analyses’ results with visualization tools, the understanding of the situation’s development can be enhanced. Our approach covers all CI sectors and subsectors to generate an overview of how the impact of a disruption propagates through the CI network. By using a holistic approach multiple alignments to different CI disruption scenarios are possible. This enables crisis managers to plan response strategies. The presentation illustrates our work to support CI disruption management and discusses the opportunities and limits of our approach. Additionally, feedback elicited in an expert workshop is presented and directions for future research are outlined. Keywords: Critical infrastructure protection, crisis management, system dynamics, decision support, emergency management Evaluating disaster preparedness in West Sumatra MURPHY, Eila Sinikka Jyväskylä University, Finland, Republic of Presenting author: MURPHY, Eila Sinikka [email protected] As part of the Disaster Preparedness project, a crisis communication evaluation was carried out in Padang Pariaman regency of West Sumatra, in November of 2010. Two groups of key informants were interviewed about the disaster preparedness of the community; one group from the district government level, and the second group from the help organization (NGO) level. Both groups had been working in disaster-preparedness and the recovery. This paper reviews the results of the evaluation. The goal of the interviews was to determine what the citizens of Padang Pariaman have learnt about disaster preparedness during the past year, and what they still need to learn. The key informants also evaluated the use of various media in contributing to disaster preparedness education. The results indicate that both government officials and NGOs think the community has learned disaster preparedness via media, including tv, radio, leaflets and billboards. The topics covered construction, evacuation routes, and actions for the earthquake risks. Especially the Radio Republic Indonesia (RRI) has been recognized by officials as disaster preparedness educator. The NGOs approved of the Journalistic Network for Disaster Preparedness that was established to promote awareness campaigns. Local officials seem to appreciate all the disaster

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to threats. Keywords: crisis management, scenario planning, controversy, incident response Land use change and human health in the Eastern Himalayas: an adaptive ecosystem NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna International center for INtegrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of Presenting author: NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna [email protected] Human health is essential to poverty reduction and human development (WHO, 2006). The universal enjoyment of good health is acknowledged as a fundamental human right (WHO, 1992). However, human health is affected by environment, particularly ecosystem services. The WHO estimates that 24 per cent of global human disease burden is caused by the environmental factors whilst the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment clearly shows the close linkages between ecosystem services and human well being. Himalayan region is a hot spot for biological and cultural diversity. It provides rich ecosystem services for the 150 million people living in this region and also the world at large. Unfortunately these ecosystem services have been increasingly threatened and encroached by unsustainable and inequitable development policies and programs as well as climate change. In this backdrop, ICIMOD and its partners in Nepal, Tibet and Yunnan Province of China conducted a research by using EcoHealth approach in eastern Himalaya to understand the linkages between land use change and human health. The project explored the answers for the following research questions: What are the human health issues affected by changes in ecosystem services and social change associated with land use change today? How is human health affected by changes in ecosystem services and social change associated with land use change? How can EcoHealth approaches be applied to generate information that will contribute to improved health and wellbeing as well as improved environmental sustainability? The findings reveals that the linkages between land use change, ecosystem services and human health in Himalayan region are complicated, diverse, dynamic and often mediated by social factors. EcoHealth approach has greater potential to develop workable solution to address the issue of ecosystem service degradation and to improve human health. Keywords: Climatic risks, land use cange, eco system, resilience, public ealth A reasonable success story of vertical evacuation against tropical cyclones in India NIRUPAMA, Niru (1); MURTY, Tad (2) 1: York University, Canada; 2: University of Ottawa, Canada Presenting author: NIRUPAMA, Niru [email protected] There are two types of evacuations against coastal natural disasters that are practiced globally. First is the horizontal evacuation, in practice in developed countries, where people move away from the coastline in their automobiles. This type of evacuation is impractical, if not impossible in developing nations, where the required infrastructure is still in the developmental stages. In India, the traffic on the

individual risks in varying degrees of probability and impact. Different quadrants of the risk matrix show that different threats require different ways of planning, and can serve as a foundation for developing a planning process, training people in incident management strategies, and exercising critical decision-making and assessment skills. Once an organization has transparency into its risk landscape, resiliency strategies can be implemented to either prevent or minimize the impact of an incident.

Part of understanding our risk environment also means taking into account the very subjective manner in which risk is perceived. In the vein of the common saying, “Perception is reality,” the way we perceive a risk, threat, or incident influences our response; our emotional perception often overrides fact or reason. The more we recognize what drives this false sense of risk and acknowledge the “human” elements of risk, we can gain a greater understanding and a sense of control over our risk environment, both within a group and at an individual level. Controversy and crisis management MURPHY, Sean Lootok, United States of America Presenting author: MURPHY, Sean [email protected] The threat of controversy lies in every organization. As today’s consumer gets information real-time, the need for companies to adopt a proactive stance in crisis management continues to increase. More and more battles are won and lost in the media, leaving those organizations that lack a formal crisis management process no choice but to respond at time of event.

Though many businesses would rather react to a situation instead of plan for it, successful management of a crisis requires understanding how to handle a crisis before it occurs. Adopting a proactive approach towards challenges and controversy means preparing crisis management capabilities from the beginning, versus waiting for an incident to hit.

Most organizations focus too heavily on the crisis management plan itself, leading people to blindly follow sequential steps or rely on a formulaic plan and expecting it to work. To establish crisis management as a critical function, organizations must prepare beyond the plan and formalize a crisis management structure. An organization with crisis management capabilities will have a framework in place that allows for flexibility and does not dictate decision-making. Organizations must also train their leadership teams to know their individual roles so that members can be focused onto either running the business or solving the crisis.

Many organizations also take a narrow view of risk, believing the most significant disruptions and threats lie within the boundaries of their industry or geography. What this belief fails to recognize is that the most significant strategic challenges are equally likely to come from a larger system of forces that are constantly creating change. This requires developing threat intelligence capabilities to track, monitor, and report external forces that make organizations vulnerable

explore structures that are employed to work/transit arctic climates in order to recommend considerations upon design approaches. Keywords: disaster, risk reduction, disaster management, arctic areas The role of land use planning in the disaster risk reduction NOJAVAN, Mehdi (1); SADEGHIAN, Alireza (1); MOHAJERAN, Mahsa (2); SOBANI, Abdollah (3) 1: university of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: university of Birjand, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 3: Department of Hydraulic Engineering, K.N. University ofTechnology, Tehran, Iran Presenting author: NOJAVAN, Mehdi [email protected] Land-use planning that is carefully designed and rigorously implemented is the most useful approach to managing urban and minimizing associated risks. It is also one of the most challenging to implement because of conflicting values held about land by different segments of the population. In many societies, cultural, social or economic attributes associated with land can form the basis of some of the most contentious issues among people, particularly at local levels. In some places flood plains and volcanic slopes hold economic attractions for inhabitants and in the other places wetlands are drained to become industrial parks or housing estates. Deciding how to use land is demanding enough. It is even more daunting if there are competing views about the role that land should play in reducing collective exposure to risk. The objective of this paper is presenting the necessary criteria for the promotion of quantitative and qualitative land-use planning to confront the negative effects of natural disasters that is a serious threat to us and the future generations. Results showed that in many cases the condition of constructions and location of human settlements are effective in the condition of consequences of natural disasters. So the main subject of this paper is demonstrating and explaining the necessity and the important role of land-use planning in the disaster risk reduction and reducing vulnerability. Keywords: Land-use Planning, Natural Disasters, Risk Reduction, Vulnerability A study on the various types of community-based disaster management in mid-sized cities in Japan: a case study from Saijo City OCHIAI, Chiho Kyoto University, Japan Presenting author: OCHIAI, Chiho [email protected] The attention given to community-based disaster management (CBDM) has grown lately due to the increase number of natural disaster and review of case studies. Rural village has been established a community to defend their community from any kind of disaster by collaborating with local residents. In order to understand the local community in relation to the disaster, reviewing their disaster history, group or organization in charge of disaster, activities that conducted in relation to their local community are important. In Japan, there are many mid-sized cities with population of less than 100,000 people facing population decrease and aging. Saijo city is not an exception. Saijo city is located at the east part of Ehime

crowded streets and bazaars is terribly chaotic at the best of times. During a major natural disaster, it will be impossible to evacuate thousands of people, if not millions and move them safely away from the coast in a short time. Starting in the 1960s, various levels of government in India have developed evacuation schemes that are particularly relevant to local situations. This type of vertical evacuation is generally suitable, with some modifications to other developing countries as well. At present, thousands of cyclone shelters dot the Indian coastlines. During a major natural disaster, people have to walk about a kilometer or so to reach the nearest shelter. These shelters are well designed and well built structure, that can withstand the harshest forces offered by tropical cyclones. These cyclone shelters also serve as shelters against other hazards such as, tsunamis and river floods etc. They also serve as community gathering places, specialized schools, and libraries etc. Whereas in olden days, tens of thousands of people used to get killed in India by tropical cyclones, at present, the loss of life is considerably less, due in part to vertical evacuation procedures. Other contributing factors for the success in reducing the loss of life considerably are better and timely predictions by the India Meteorological Department, as well as public education and increased awareness due to the efforts of various levels of government, NGOs, as well as a number of charitable organizations. Keywords: India, Cyclone, Evacuation, Shelters, Coastal Economic impact of disasters in the Caribbean and experience with CCRIF NIXON, Michael Government of Cayman Islands Presenting author: NIXON, Michael [email protected] The Caribbean Cat Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) has allowed the Cayman Islands to secure an effective means of transferring some of the financial risks associated with their catastrophic risk exposures. It has also helped to highlight the need for active and comprehensive catastrophe risk management and encouraged decision makers to take firm steps to implementing appropriate solutions. Disasters in arctic areas NJAA, Ove; GUDMESTAD, Ove Tobias University of Stavanger, Norway, Kingdom of Presenting author: GUDMESTAD, Ove Tobias [email protected] An overview of arctic disasters is important for Norwegian building industry, petroleum industry and shipping has an enhanced actuality since future activities in the northern areas will increase. This article provides an insight into important characteristics of relevant disasters as background knowledge for disaster risk assessments and associated risk reduction measures. We claim that the uncertainty dimension is vital to this discussion. Epistemic (knowledge based) uncertainty related to observable quantities, such as whether a major accident occur or not, the capacities of risk reduction measures, execution time for safe evacuation, dynamics of disaster phenomena, magnitude of accidental loads, response performances, instability effects etc., are important and should influence the choice of design approach. We also

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Keywords: Extreme fire events, Fire Danger indexes, FWI, MANFRED, ALPFFIRS Security and safety of cross-border infrastructure OLIVERO, Sergio (1); MIGLIORINI, Massimo (1); STIRANO, Federico (1); CALANDRI, Fabrizio (1); FAVA, Umberto (2) 1: SiTI - Istituto Superiore sui Sistemi Territoriali per l'Innovazione, Italy, Republic of; 2: Lamoro - Langhe Monferrato Roero, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: OLIVERO, Sergio [email protected] Typical cross-border infrastructures are transport communication networks and high voltage electricity transmission grids. These infrastructures represent a strategic economic, social and environmental asset and their loss or even temporary failure may imply relevant impacts on health and welfare of people. As a consequence, cross-border infrastructures must be protected against multiple threats, typically classified into natural (landslides, floods, etc.) and human threats (sabotage, accidents, etc.). A possible approach to improve cross-border infrastructures security and safety consists of three phases. Firstly, cross-border infrastructures must be identified and characterized in terms of assets, vulnerabilities, critical points, resources, threats, protocols, also through a strong interactions with local bodies and authorities. Secondly, the collected information has to be filled in a cross-border database, with the object to make available to stakeholders an integrated and geo-referenced information platform to be constantly consulted and updated. The third and final step consists of developing a risk and vulnerability assessment methodology (RVA), in order to evaluate immediate impacts as well as long-term consequences when a single cross-border infrastructure is compromised, and to evaluate the efficiency and the effectiveness of protocols, resources, instruments and equipment to deal with identified security threats. RVA must then be tested in different case studies (cross-border infrastructures related to energy and mass transport) and refined, also conducting simulations to assess the cross-border operational capability to prevent threats and/or to mitigate consequences. At the end of the validation process, RVA can provide managers and authorities with a decision-making support tool to plan adequate security investment policies and to enhance the efficiency of security protocols, technologies and measures. This paper shows an innovative approach followed by SiTI and Lamoro in North Western Italy across the boundary between Italy and France, simulating a complex system also allowing for a detailed analysis of applicable laws and procedures. Keywords: cross-border infrastructures, risk & vulnerability assessment, decision-making support tool, energy infrastructures, complex systems Building Resilient Nations and Communities OXLEY, Marcus Global Network for Disaster Reduction UK, United Kingdom Presenting author: OXLEY, Marcus [email protected] In a global context where multiple risks are increasing, social, economic, environmental and political risks are increasingly inter-connected and mutually reinforcing. Building social

prefecture in Japan. The city holds a variety of geographical characteristics from plain area along the sea coast to hilly and mountainous area. How people established CBDM that matches their needs and social conditions? In this study, an interview survey was conducted with the Fire Volunteer (FV) members and local residents. The study revealed that FV is a main organization that has been in charge of different kinds of disaster happened in the city for many years. Also, in 2004 flood and 2008 forest fire, FV played a major role that was from preparedness to emergency response. This paper focuses on the various types of coordination that have been established between FV and based Voluntary Organizations for Disaster Prevention (VODP). The study found that each community has different types and ways to protect their community depending on their natural environment and social conditions that include limitations. The analysis also revealed that human relationship that has been established in the local community through summer festival and children’s association activities increases the awareness to protect their people and community that lead young people to join FV. Keywords: Fire Volunteer, Community-based Disaster Management, Local Community, Middle-sized City, Flood and Forest Fire Extreme forest fires and predictive power of fire danger Indexes: a deepening in the Alpine region OLIVERI, Stefano (4); COCCA, Giampaolo (1); CANE, Daniele (2); BARBARINO, Simona (2); COMINI, Bruna (1); GEROSA, Giacomo (3) 1: ERSAF; 2: Arpa Piemonte; 3: Cattolica University of Brescia; 4: Ecometrics srl Presenting author: COCCA, Giampaolo [email protected] At alpine scale, the efficiency of fire danger forecast services, prevention activities and fire fighting actions has significantly improved in the last decades. Ongoing trends show a strong decrease both in the overall frequency of forest fires and in the mean extension of burnt area per single fire occurrence. In spite of that, forest fires still represent one of the main threats impacting alpine forests. In the next future, ongoing climate changes could play a relevant role in influencing both the frequency, the geographical patterns and the regimes of fires in the Alpine area. Moreover, they could play a relevant role in inducing the occurrence of big or extreme fires. As a consequence, great efforts should be made to monitor the evolution of fire patterns in the Alps and to identify fire danger indexes highly performing in the Alpine region. Two Alpine Space projects (MANFRED and ALP FFIRS) recently co-operated on these topics. This paper synthesizes the results of the collaboration, mainly aimed at (1) understanding if extreme fire occurrences are significantly influenced by meteo-climatic conditions and (2) at identifying the Fire Danger Indexes better performing in the prediction of extreme occurrences. In the framework of this joint action, a pan-alpine dataset of fires has been generated (more than 82.000 fires, about 26.000 occurrences in the time span 2000 - 2009). The dataset maps the points of ignition and describes each event with a standard set of attributes. Extreme fires (99th percentile of the attribute total burnt area) occurred in the period 2003-2009 were identified and used to test a selection of about 20 fire weather indices, with non-parametric statistics to investigate their ability in distinguishing between fire/non fire days and between common fire conditions and extreme fire conditions.

Korea PARK, Hyoung Seong; HONG, Sung Jin; KIM, Dong Seag National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of Presenting author: PARK, Hyoung Seong [email protected] The purpose of this study is to develop the tsunami disaster response system using hazard mapping techniques for the east coast of Korea. Several methods are used for this purpose. The highly populated and potentially dangerous areas of the east coast have been selected and the test was performed on 14 different study areas to establish tsunami disaster response system and hazard mapping. The existing tsunami response measures are analyzed including shelters, evacuation methods and maps; and surveys are done for the climate, population and land-use on the selected zones. Topography and bathymetry data are acquired and processed for numerical modeling, through which a total of 77 hazard maps are prepared estimating tsunami in 7 magnitudes (M7.4~M8.0) from 11 seismic zones for each study area. As a result, tsunami hazard maps are prepared on the east coast region which is capable to provide fast and accurate response to tsunamis. The conclusions are: 1) selection of the study area for tsunami hazard mapping, 2) tsunami counter-measures are analyzed for project study area, 3) establishment of detailed topographical information and grid systems (4.5 m resolution) in the coastal zone, 4) inundation characteristics are analyzed for each study area, 5) tsunami hazard maps are prepared for each study area. The 'tsunami disaster response system' developed by this study will be prepared as comprehensive decision making system for tsunamis and will be utilized as disaster prevention system for anticipative response against disasters by central and local governments; and especially, will be utilized as the system for evacuation of residents and disaster management. Keywords: tsunami, response, system, korea, The benefits of alerting system based on standardised libraries PARRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina (1); MULERO CHAVES, Javier (1); MENDES, Miguel (2) 1: German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Germany, Federal Republic of; 2: Tecnosylva Presenting author: PARRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina [email protected] In the context of early warning systems, this presentation will discuss an approach to compose alert messages based on alerting libraries, their potential impact in the alert effectiveness and technological implications. The understanding of the alert content and trust by the recipients can be influenced by the alert message composition. It has been identified that recipients are more likely to trust the alert and implement protective actions when the alert message includes information about hazard, location, time, magnitude, guidance on protective actions and issuing source. However, the level of understanding of an alerting message can be jeopardised by the style if ambiguous or complex words are used, the message is inconsistent or jargon is used and if the recipient does speak the used language. Along with this, the creation of alerting libraries that can be used to compose alert messages in a modular manner using standardised terminology appears very suitable. Standardised libraries allow easy (even automatic) translation to any language and avoid

and economic resilience is the best way to protect against multiple risks in the face of complexity and uncertainty. Here, a common set of resilience principles provides the basis for greater harmonisation of different sectors and public policy frameworks, resulting in more efficient use of resources and mutual gains between different sectors. A set of ten core principles are drawn from the shared experience of different sectors subject to extreme events that can be used by the private sector and civil society to promote resilient systems. The presentation compares the use of these ten principles by both communities in Sudan and businesses in South-East Asia who both successfully managed the impacts of extreme flooding events.

Developing realistic rapid earthquake damage evaluation method for decision making, using GIS. Case study: Iran Kerman city PANAHI, Ali; VALIZADEH, Reza; KARIMZADEH, Morteza; FATHI, Leila Islamic Azad University,Sardrood branch, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: PANAHI, Ali [email protected] Iran is one of the most seismically active country in the world, as more than 90% of the country falls within an active seismic zone, the Alpine-Himalayan belt. Kerman is one of the largest city in Iran and a historical site. Kerman is surrounded by many active faults and because of that is one of earthquake-prone areas in the country. Most of its buildings serving its population were built during years, when there were no standards, codes of practice or regulations, related to a seismic design and construction. Therefore, the actual seismic resistance of many of the existing buildings is unknown and mostly inadequate. This paper aims at development and implementation of suitable tools for the evaluation of realistic earthquake scenarios and data for decision making processes including engineering tools, GIS, etc. for rapid and automatic assessment of the seismic vulnerability of large groups of existing buildings in Kerman. The methodology of this study is intended for implementation in a suitable computer program (GIS based damage assessor) for evaluation of expected earthquake damages Kerman. The proposed methodology, focused on all existing buildings (e.g. educational buildings, health care institutions, public, commercial and industrial buildings, etc.), especially residential one, in which form the majority of existing buildings in Kerman. Existing methods for earthquake assessment of existing buildings are not suitable for implementation on a large scale, when large inventories of existing buildings have to be evaluated. In the first stage of the study the GIS database of Kerman municipality was used as the basic platform for evaluation of the geometric and structural attributes of buildings existing in Kerman. The algorithms developed during this stage of the research enable rapid and exact evaluation of the approximate geometric and structural attributes of approximately 90% of the existing buildings in Kerman, without any need for field checks. Keywords: earthquake scenario, vulnerability assessment, rapid evaluation, scenario developing, GIS, Kerman.

Development of tsunami disaster response system in

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From displacements to migrations: the earthquake of Messina (1908) and the earthquake of the Belice Valley (1968) PARRINELLO, Giacomo Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, LMU, Germany Presenting author: PARRINELLO, Giacomo [email protected] The presentation will focus on post-disaster migrations in historical perspective starting from two case studies: the earthquake of Messina (Sicily, 1908) and the earthquake of the Belice Valley (Sicily, 1968). Both earthquakes had enormously destructive effects on the built environment of large areas. As a consequence, in the aftermaths most of the resident population who had survived left the sites, heading to national and international destinations. In both cases, the authorities encouraged the departure of the survivors, while attempting to control and orient the displacements. Despite these similarities, the two case studies diverge considerably if observed on the mid and long-time scale. From 1909, a great number of refugees started to come back to Messina, and the urban population, reduced to a few thousands in the very aftermath, quickly started to grow. The following decades saw a continuous rise in population, and thirty years after the seism the population of Messina had considerably increased with respect to the eve of the disaster. The Belice Valley experienced the inverse phenomenon: while some survivors returned to the Valley few months after the disaster, nonetheless the demography of the area never recovered from the post-disaster losses. To explain such a difference, many different factors must be taken into account: general demographic trends, labor migrations, local economy, and so forth. The comparison, thus, suggests tempering any deterministic approach to post-disaster migrations. If on the short-time scale one can argue a direct relationship between the earthquakes and the population displacements, when reconsidering the demography of the same areas on a mid and long-term perspective, it becomes clear that other historical forces played a major role in transforming the initial displacements into permanent migrations. Keywords: climates of migration, displacement, natural disaster, earthquake, Towards an interdisciplinary framework for understanding the role of culture in the post disaster reconstruction process PASUPULETI, Ram Sateesh Luleå University of Technology Lulea, Sweden , Sweden, Kingdom of, and School of Planning and Architecture Bhopal India Presenting author: PASUPULETI, Ram Sateesh [email protected] This paper elaborates on a conceptual framework to validate the argument that cultural dimensions of the affected communities are not effectively and sufficiently addressed in the current post disaster humanitarian and development processes. This has been well articulated in this study from the analysis of shelter reconstruction process in 2004 tsunami hit fishing villages of Tamilnadu. The main contribution of this paper to theory and practice is delivered in three sections. Firstly, it explains the relevance of the conceptual framework that synthesises two different fields of enquiry i.e. cultural

human errors (e.g. typos) that may lead to inconsistencies or ambiguities. It also allows very efficient transmission of alert messages over communication technologies, making it very cost-effective and making the transmission time almost negligible with suitable communications protocols, even in very limited systems that are currently taken into account for alerting purposes, such as navigation devices (GPS, GNSS). The presentation provides the results and conclusions of a workshop (13-14 March 2012) with field practitioners of several European countries where they are confronted with two different alerting systems in a created disaster scenario; one alerting system is based on free writing of alert messages and the other is based on created libraries. It is expected that the workshop results will provide the tools to design a trade-off solution, exploiting the strengths of each approach that will be presented. Keywords: early warning, alert libraries, understanding, trust, effectiveness

Cross-border alerting PÁRRAGA-NIEBLA, Cristina German Aerospace Center (DLR) Presenting author: PÁRRAGA-NIEBLA, Cristina [email protected] Traditionally, disaster relief was thought as a non-European problem. This view is changing along with the growth of natural disasters with climate change and increasing man-made disasters , as there is a clear benefit in cooperation among member states.

The Lisbon Treaty prepares the terrain. In its Article 176c, it states: “the Union shall encourage cooperation between Member States in order to improve the effectiveness of systems for preventing and protecting against natural or man-made disasters.” European legislation shall establish the measures necessary to help achieve these objectives. In this context, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies publishes a report on the “Analysis of Law in the European Union pertaining to Cross-Border Disaster Relief”, clarifying the legal framework and identifying the gaps.

There is a tendency towards cross-border cooperation for disaster response and relief. The European Parliament even allocated special funding for 6 pilot projects in this area. However, all activities are addressing cooperation of first responders and interoperability to fight natural disasters. But the element “cross-border alerting” of the population is not concretely mentioned or specifically addressed. The reasons why “cross-border alerting” is not directly addressed shall be discussed in the workshop, discussing first what is exactly meant by “cross-border alerting”: (1) Is it country A alerting directly the population of country B? (2) Is it country A alerting own citizens currently in country B? (3) Is it country A and country B coordinating and agreeing on a common strategy to disseminate alerts towards A+B citizens? (4) Or is it integrating alert dissemination systems?

The right definition shall be discussed along with the consequences and opportunities. Finally, the blocking/challenging issues shall be identified (organizational, economic, legislative, administrative, and socio-cultural).

with governments. It would also discuss the change in their risk profile for financial agencies when they enter into such partnerships. Keywords: Disaster Insurance, Capacity Building, Resiliency and Vulnerability Assessing school safety from disasters- a baseline study (on video) PETAL, Marla Author of the School Safety Baseline study Presenting author: PETAL, Marla [email protected] This desk review revisits existing reports about all aspects of school safety, gathered from 81 countries, and refers to the key advocacy and guidance documents for school safety of the past 7 years to develop an analysis that reflects the best practices in achieving the goals of comprehensive school safety, and current concerns and recommendations of advocates and practitioners. A basic and simple framework for understanding the scope of school safety recognizes three main pillars: safe school facilities, school disaster management, and disaster prevention and risk reduction education. Each of these requires separate tracking because the types of policies, decision-making authority, resources, expertise, and implementing actors are substantially different for each.

The Analysis section of this report draws from the wide range of reports and case studies and lessons learned from the practices of the past few years. It has afforded an opportunity to summarize many of the strengths and opportunities as well as the weaknesses and threats found in this literature. Illustrative examples and selected good practices are also provided to help in understanding the current state of the art. Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greece PETSETI, Aglaia University of Pireaus Presenting author: PETSETI, Aglaia [email protected] Greece is characterized by its high seismic exposure. It is estimated that the economic loss to the residential stock of a 1-in-200 year event is likely to be greater than 22 billion Euros while for a shorter return period 1-in-5 year it is likely to be 1.3 billion Euros. This potential loss severity was estimated by employing four different renowned catastrophe models and by developing a valuable and unique data bank of the residential stock in the country. The severity of losses underscores the urgent need for establishing a National Earthquake Insurance Program that will replace the ex post disaster relief by the State when an earthquake occurs. It is proposed that earthquake coverage up to a maximum amount should be provided on a compulsory basis to all homeowners at affordable but risk-based premiums which consider location and construction period. Transfer of earthquake risk to international reinsurers safeguards high capacity and success of the program in the long run. The program should provide insurance to all home owners, without excluding old houses, at a cost much lower than the private market. Expected claims response will increase penetration which

anthropology and urban design to analyse the role of culture in the evolution and development of traditional settlements in post disaster contexts. This is followed by the analysis of reconstruction processes in three tsunami hit fishing villages in Tamilnadu, Southern India, in which the author has carried out primary research as part of his (awarded) PhD study. The analysis of this primary research unfolds the specific impacts and the reasons for such responses in the post tsunami reconstruction process, by comparing and contrasting the findings from the three case studies.

This paper discusses the disaster reconstruction process in two different ways. Instrumentally – in a positivist way. Secondly, the findings on the outcome of the reconstruction process have been discussed from the perspective of cultural anthropology. Here the consideration is of a ‘way of life’ – a habitus. This perspective is addressed from a different philosophical framework to positivism of development studies and draws on cultural anthropology – that is looking at the world as a social construct that operates through a physical spatial field. When the spatial relations change, this has an impact on social relations, but the relationship is not direct and deterministic, because the social and the spatial are mutually constructed. Keywords: culture disaster development urban design Risk for financial agencies in providing affordable disaster insurance to developing countries PATEL, Saumyang M; HASTAK, Makarand PhD, PE, CCE Purdue University, United States of America Presenting author: HASTAK, Makarand PhD, PE, CCE [email protected] Under socio economic development practice in Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) to make the world safer from natural hazards, emphasis is given to protecting and strengthening public infrastructure through proper design, retrofitting and re-building, in order to render them adequately resilient to hazards. Infrastructure facilities are not only important to fortify the nation against disaster risks but they are also crucial for nation’s economic development and poverty reduction. While their need is well known to decision makers, they are still short supplied and in poor condition mainly in developing countries. This has caused larger economic losses due to extreme events. This is a result of not only substandard infrastructure but also of increased population and low insurance penetration in the vulnerable urban areas. In order to hedge disaster risks to international capital markets, developing countries have adopted various approaches such as issuing catastrophe (CAT) bonds or creating a pool of funds that are supported by multi-lateral agencies such as the World Bank, Swiss Re, etc. These agencies are also providing risk transfer instruments for financial assistance in emergency situations. Due to restricted budget, most of the developing countries may ignore needs for proper disaster risk reduction and rather divert their funds for development projects. Thus there is a need for a mechanism that would make risk transfer instruments affordable for developing countries so that they do not have to compromise with their spending on development projects. This presentation would discuss the role that multilateral financial agencies could play in establishing such mechanisms through partnerships

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also the framework for drawing up harmonised technical specifications for construction products. A Commission Recommendation (2003/887/EC) calls for a shared effort between the Commission, Member States and industry. By instituting a common design framework, the Eurocodes have enhanced and have been a common basis for research and development in civil engineering in the European Union during the last decade, leading to one of the most advanced design and construction standards in the world. The use of the Eurocodes will lead to a more uniform level of construction safety in the different European regions, while responding to regulatory safety matters at national level through the so called Nationally Determined Parameters (NDPs). New areas of prenormative research have been identified in the area of earthquake resistant design, which undertaken at European level, will allow to increase the level of safety and performance for the further mitigation of earthquake risk. The importance of a systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of complex urban, regional, national or pan-European systems comprising buildings, transportation, lifelines, utility networks and critical facilities PITILAKIS, Kyriazis ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKI, Greece, Hellenic Republic Presenting author: PITILAKIS, Kyriazis [email protected] SYNER-G (EU project) is a European collaborative research project focusing on systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of buildings, transportation and utility networks and critical facilities. The originality of the project is the systemic approach of vulnerability and risk assessment of complex interacting systems. The whole methodology is implemented in an open source software tool and is validated in selected case studies. Main goals of SYNER-G are: i) to elaborate appropriate, in the European context, fragility relationships for the vulnerability analysis and loss estimation of all elements at risk; ii) to develop social and economic vulnerability relationships for quantifying the impact of earthquakes; iii) to develop a unified methodology, and tools for systemic vulnerability assessment accounting for all components exposed to seismic hazard, considering interdependencies within a system unit and between systems; and iv) to validate the methodology and the proposed fragility functions in selected sites and systems and to implement in an appropriate open source software tool. SYNER-G developed an innovative methodological framework for the assessment of physical as well as socio-economic seismic vulnerability at the urban/regional level. The built environment is modeled according to a detailed taxonomy into its component systems, grouped into the following categories: buildings, transportation and utility networks, and critical facilities. Each category may have several types of components. The framework encompasses in an integrated fashion all aspects in the chain, from regional hazard to fragility assessment of components to the socio-economic impacts of an earthquake, accounting for all relevant uncertainties within an efficient quantitative simulation scheme, and modeling interactions between the multiple component systems in the taxonomy. Governance in disaster risk reduction and climate

will lead in better reinsurance terms or even expansion of the program to cover other catastrophic risks. A national risk management approach will prove to be beneficial for the Greek society overall." Keywords: insurance, risk transfer Simulation and optimization of cascading effects - strategic multilayered risk management PICKL, Stefan Universität der Bundeswehr München, Germany Presenting author: PICKL, Stefan [email protected] Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructures such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective disruption of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore offers spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. Increasing complexity of our critical infrastructures exacerbates consequences of natural and/or man-made disasters. Not only primary effects but also cascading effects as a result of increasing dependencies and interdependencies of our technological and societal systems demand intelligent simulation and optimization techniques in the area of operations research and a comprehensive safety and security management. This talk bases on the simulation and optimization of complex networks. New methods like computational intelligence, evolutionary algorithms, system dynamics and data farming should be combined within new heuristics to master such complex networks via modern soft computing approaches. It presents actual decision support approaches - in the area of modern transportation systems, energy networks and aviation management. New innovative heuristics and first computational results for special multilayered decision problems will be presented. Keywords: Cascading Effect, Multilayered Decision Problem, RIKOV The role of the European Standards for Construction (Eurocodes) for earthquake risk mitigation PINTO, Artur; TAUCER, Fabio Federico European Commission - DG JRC, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: PINTO, Artur [email protected] The Eurocodes are the European norms establishing a set of common technical rules for the design of economical and safe buildings and civil engineering works, which will ultimately replace the differing rules in the various Member States. The intended benefits arising from the implementation and use of the Eurocodes are to: i) lead to a more uniform level of constructions safety across Europe; ii) facilitate the free movement of construction services, structural components/kits, materials and products; iii) increase the competitiveness of the European construction industry; and iv) provide a common basis for research and development. The Eurocodes constitute a key instrument for the application of the Construction Products Regulation (305/2011/EU -CPR) and the Public Procurement Directive (2004/18/EC). They are

strategies (dry-proofing, wet-proofing, and dry- and wet-proofing combined), show that a wide implementation of the strategies in residential areas could decrease the annual risk by up to 25 %. However, if implemented only on new buildings in 2030, the strategies would only decrease the annual risk by 5 %. A final step was taken to assess the potential risk reduction of an additional spatial zoning in 2030. Results show that this zoning combined with adaptation strategies could reduce the risk by up to 22 %. Keywords: Flood risk modeling, climate change, land use change, spatial zoning, flood risk mitigation

Design guidelines for human computer interfaces supporting fire emergency response PRASANNA, Raj (1); YANG, Lili (2); KING, Malcolm (2) 1: University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; 2: Loughborough University, UK Presenting author: YANG, Lili [email protected] Emergency response failures are mostly due to the fact that first responders at individual, team, and organizational levels are unable to make comprehensive decisions in an appropriate manner. It is widely accepted that on-site dynamic information retrieving, sharing and presenting, in the right format at the right time and to the right person, will significantly improve the decision-making of first responders. Despite recent work on information systems, many first responders in emergency situations are unable to develop sufficient understanding of the situation to enable them to make good decisions. Most of the previously developed information systems failed due to the lack of usability, supporting high-level of situation awareness under demanding circumstances. Primarily, the limitations of usability are minimized through the application of an appropriate set of user interface design principles and guidelines that allow designers to avoid many pitfalls in the human computer interaction design process. As a partial requirement of the development of information system for the UK fire and rescue services, this paper discusses the selection of appropriate design guidelines and principles exclusively suitable for the design of human computer interfaces for fire emergency response. In particular this paper explains several important contextual factors exclusive to fire emergency response that may influence the formulation of interface design guidelines and enlightens in detail how specific design decisions are applied for the context of fire emergency by using some relevant examples. The proposed guidelines are formulated based on validated human centered requirements identified through extensive interviews with fire fighters together with observation made of fire emergency response training simulations. This paper contributes to improve the designing of the human computer interfaces and human computer interaction for supporting fire fighters during fire emergency response. Keywords: Human computer interaction,Information Systems, Fire Emergency Response, Human computer interfaces, fire fighters Decision making for resilience in critical infrastructure governance PRIOR, Tim Center for Security Studies, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland Presenting author: PRIOR, Tim

change adaptation: a pan European perspective PLA, Francesc Council of Europe - EUR-OPA Presenting author: PLA, Francesc [email protected] In the present difficult economic situation, the coordination of actions related to both disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are more than ever crucial in order to limit their possible negative impact on already weak growth rates in most European countries. To adequately plan those necessary actions in both domains, governance issues are essential: a clear distribution of responsibilities for each phase between the various authorities (international, national, regional, and local) involved is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of the overall strategy. Aware of that need of convergence of both approaches, the European institutions are exploring the adequate way to address it. The main findings of the joint UNISDR Europe and European and Mediterranean Major Hazards Agreement published in 2011 on current governance work done at supranational level will be briefly presented and discussed. The need to improve the present situation through a greater interaction between authorities and other actors (private sector, scientific community, civil society, …), both directly through common projects or indirectly through the flow of information between them, will be emphasized as a crucial aspect to increase resilience of modern societies against climate change and disasters. Impact of climate change, land use change and residential mitigation measures on damage and risk assessment POUSSIN, Jennifer K. (1,2); WARD, Philip J. (1,2); BUBECK, Philip (1,2,3); AERTS, Jeroen C.J.H. (1,2) 1: Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 2: Amsterdam Global Change Institute (AGCI), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 3: German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Section Hydrology, Germany Presenting author: POUSSIN, Jennifer K. [email protected] Flood risk throughout Europe increased in past decades, and is projected to increase further due to continued development in flood prone areas and climate change. Several adaptation strategies can be used to limit this increase. These strategies include flood protection measures such as storm surge barriers and dikes, but also spatial zoning and flood proofing of houses. In recent years, studies have shown that adequate undertaking of flood-proofing measures can considerably decrease the costs of floods for households. However, there is little insight into how such measures can decrease the risk at the basin level, now and in the future. To gain such insights, a model was developed and applied to the Meuse river basin, in the region of Limburg, southeast Netherlands. We used the Damagescanner model with land use maps for 2000 and 2030 to represent exposure, and inundation maps for current and future climates to represent the hazard. The research shows that the annual risk increase due to land use changes alone, climate change alone, and land use and climate changes combined, could be up to, respectively, 108 %, 37 %, and 185 %. The implementation of spatial planning already decreases the risk by up to 25 % to 45 %. Adaptation factors subsequently applied to assess the potential impact of three adaptation

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Presenting author: RAFALOWSKI, Chaim [email protected] ESS is expected to be an interoperable platform of systems and components for collecting and exchanging data between the incident theater and the operational center as well as for deriving intelligence from these data in order to support more efficient decision taking during emergencies.

From the users point of view the ESS system addresses the requirements of both the tactical and operational level of the scene actors during emergency and crisis management operations. Police, Fire Brigade, Coast Guard, Border Security, environmental protection agencies Health Services, and Emergency Medical Services are the main stakeholders of ESS. Furthermore Civil Protection and Emergency management agencies, Local and Regional Governments and Authorities are considered as additional stakeholders of the system.

A series of table top exercises (TTX) held by end-users organizations in various countries allowed the participants to identify the operational requirements that the ESS system should satisfy in order to comply with users’ expectations and to improve the current crisis management operations. These requirements include the adaptation to the organizational structure of public services, operating needs of various configurations, easiness and rapid deployment of system components, rapid set-up of the web-based ESS platform, autonomous operation in terms of energy and telecommunication needs etc. All these requirements have been considered in the design and implementation of the ESS prototype and they are repeatedly validated during the ESS field tests.

The active involvement of the end-users in the implementation of the ESS field tests is a critical issue which supports the direct users’ feedback to the system developers in order to fine tune the system’s operation according to the operational needs. The expectations and requirements of operational users from the ESS system will be summarized and discussed during this session. Crisis management and security research – an end user perspective RAFALOWSKI, Chaim Magen David Adom Presenting author: RAFALOWSKI, Chaim [email protected] Over the last 50 years the world of crisis management has changed dramatically – the geo political global changes have merged the "civil defense" with the (more locally focused) "crisis managers". Urbanization and economic changes have made the cities larger and more vulnerable to disasters, more severe weather phenomena are affecting more population, large scale pandemics became a threat, terrorism has become a major concern and militaries have become a major player in international humanitarian assistance, just to mention some of the more evident changes. One would ask in such an environment, one would argue what the role of "security research" is? (1) In an environment of reduced budgets, ensure that products and technologies are multipurpose by nature; (2) to better understand competing values, and thus

[email protected] The growing interconnectedness of global society has increased the number and complexity of services supporting society, and has increased societal sensitivity to disturbances that might threaten the delivery of those services. Critical infrastructure provides and supports many key services that globalised society depends on, and ensuring these infrastructures are secure and ‘resilient’ has become an important goal, both in the public and private sectors. This paper explores what critical infrastructure resilience might mean, and outlines a methodology to investigate how decision makers could systematically incorporate resilience into critical infrastructure security-related policy decision making and practice. Risk cultures, the social construction of risk, and coordinated responses to global and systemic risks PRIOR, Tim; GIROUX, Jennifer Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich, Switzerland Presenting author: PRIOR, Tim [email protected] There is no question that the global society is connected now more than ever. With this increasing connectivity arguably comes greater societal sensitivity in the systems that support this global society – particularly because society relies on a variety of complex and interdependent social and technical supporting services. At the same time, the awareness and prevalence of global and systemic risks has increased. Such risks will have impacts not just at the local or regional scale, but also on the global scale, with multinational and cross-cultural consequences.

Coordinating effective responses to such global and systemic risks requires an understanding and appreciation of the differing risk cultures in communities, societies, organisations and institutions, and the way risk culture is influenced by the social construction of risk at the individual and community levels. ‘Risk culture’ describes an organisation, community or institution’s beliefs, values and practices regarding a risk. Scholarship on the social construction of risk acknowledges that risks, and peoples’ perceptions, beliefs, values, attitudes and behaviours associated with those risks are socially and culturally framed and discussed.

This presentation will explore the implications of the social construction of risk in the development of risk cultures, and the complication this raises for coordinating appropriate responses to global and systemic risks. The presentation focuses on individual and community constructions of risk, and particularly on some of the most important factors influencing individual and community level risk cultures, like trust, sense of community and social norms among others. Lastly, a relatively ‘simple’ example of the social construction of wildfire risk in Australia is presented to illustrate the difficulties faced by institutional risk management agencies when advocating wildfire preparedness activities at the household and community levels. Emergency Support System - ESS : The end-user perspective RAFALOWSKI, Chaim Magen David Adom, Israel

RAFIQ, Lubna (1); BLASCHKE, Thomas (2) 1: SUPARCO-Pakistan Space Agency, Pakistan, Islamic Republic of; 2: Z_Gis, Centre for Geoinformatics- University Salzburg Austria Presenting author: RAFIQ, Lubna [email protected] Flood management procedures rely on the recording of the hydrological parameters of a flood event, its modelling and short-term and long-term forecasts. Methods and models are well established yet it is still difficult to predict the risk levels of such extreme events. For the non-structural management of flood related risks, precise flood prone areas need to be known and a detailed analysis of both societal and environmental aspects of such flood events needs to be conducted. Vulnerability was assessed using the census data in order to conduct statistical and GIS analysis, along with using the Delphi method to assign weights to the respective vulnerability indicators. Multi temporal Landsat MSS, TM and ETM images were utilized in order to calculate the flood inundation extent for four selected flood events. SPOT- 4 multi spectral high resolution imagery was found to be very useful in identifying population location (in terms of built up area) as well as agricultural units within the flood zone. Non-structural flood risk methodology is illustrated by using the Chenab and Jehlum River floods of 1976, 1988, 1992 and 2010 (Jhang and Sargodha districts of province Punjab, Pakistan) as a case study. Additionally the analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures (schools & hospitals) within flood hazard zones provides indicators for the degree of spatial exposure to disaster. Findings of the study may help in the planning and management of the flood plain area of Jhang Tehsil in order to mitigate future flood events accordingly. Keywords: Flood Risk, Vulnerability assessment, Landsat & SPOT imageries, critical infrastructure Mitigation of global volatility of food supply/demand risk through innovations in crop insurance schemes RAWAL, Sonia A. (1); BOISSONNADE, Auguste C. (1); TAN, John (2); SHAH, Haresh C. (1) 1: Asia Risk Centre, Inc; 2: Asia Capital Reinsurance Group Presenting author: RAWAL, Sonia A. [email protected] Increasing focus on food and water security and frequently recurring natural disasters is opening up a whole new business opportunity for the financial services sector as crop insurance gets increasingly popular in Asia. The paper seeks to understand the scenarios and issues in the major Asian countries and the prevailing economic landscape. It explains the complexities of the problem, the loop-holes/challenges prevalent today and the need for comprehensive mechanistic models for risk quantification and risk transfer in Asia.

The paper proposes a unique solution to solve the “hunger problem” and potentially food security of the nations by forming agro-pool(s) at a regional level that would hold a percentage of the stock pile reserves and would disburse these reserves into the market to ease out supply fluctuations caused by catastrophes (political, social or natural disasters).

As a starting point, the pool is associated to one crop; rice. The paper explains the formation of the pool, the roles of

create better acceptability of products and methods; (3) try to bridge the fragmentation in the crisis management world by encouraging the creation of more "generic" solution; (4) try to minimize the "high media attention" effect, by a scientific understanding of needs and gaps; (5) help the end users community be heard, and bring together research, industry and end users to benefit together from the results; (6) bring into "security" the knowledge of other disciplines as health, earth sciences, chemistry, logistics; (7) promote creation of solutions in areas where there is a built in market failure due to the size of the market or its limited number of procuring agencies (e.g. CBRN); (8) assist in the creation of a long term vision of "crisis management" issues, especially those with global impact. Those issues are beyond the planning spam of the organizations, and beyond their analysis tools. MDA Response to a Mass Casualty Toxicological Accident RAFALOWSKI, Chaim Magen David Adom, Israel Presenting author: RAFALOWSKI, Chaim [email protected] The chemical attack in Tokyo 1995 raised the awareness to the possibility of a mass casualty toxicological incident caused by an accident, deliberate release or natural disaster.

These are the main concepts leading to MDA chemical procedure:

In a MCTA the exposure is to vapors. This enables reducing the level of skin protection of responders.If victims exposed to the toxic substance still show signs of life by the time rescue units arrive to the scene, the concentration of oxygen is high enough to sustain life, and the concentration of the contaminant is rather low. These facts enable reducing the respiratory protection of responders.Since the exposure is to vapors, disrobing will provide initial sufficient decontamination, and the risk of long term contamination of the ambulances is minimal.A MCTA could occur any time anywhere all over the country.These concepts lead to the following operational procedures:All ambulances carry personal protective equipment and antidotes. MCTA procedures are part of the training programs for all team members at their various levels.EMS personnel wearing PPE will assist in the fast removal of patients from the contaminated area.Patients that have been disrobed will be transported to the hospitals, by EMS personnel wearing PPE. If there is a need for, wet decontamination will be performed at hospital's gate.Diagnosis of Oregano Phosphate will be based on clinical criteria. Following the decision of Paramedic / Physician on organophosphate intoxication, all EMT are authorized to use antidote auto injectors.Several small scale operations have demonstrated that this procedure is well incorporated and understood by MDA staff and volunteers. An ongoing learning process is essential to creating this level of knowledge by the personnel. Satellite application for non-structural flood risk management in Pakistan

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between physical patterns of change and human activities. Recent research efforts, however, have shown that both climate change and desertification must be understood as social phenomena largely driven by human activities. Hence societal risks such as migration and even conflict triggered by climate change and land degradation can be perceived as socially constructed phenomena in the age of global change, and therefore must be addressed by means of an integrated social science effort. This paper introduces the concept of environmental migration and refugees, describes the various aspects of the interaction between climate change, desertification, the displacement of people and further downstream risks, and the difficulties to assess them in a straight-forward manner. Keywords: Climate Change and Migration, Displacement, Environmental Refugees Risk culture: implications for risk governance RENN, Ortwin University of Stuttgart Presenting author: RENN, Ortwin [email protected] Deciding about the location of hazardous facilities, setting standards for chemicals, making decisions about clean-ups of contaminated land, regulating food and drugs, as well as designing and enforcing safety limits all have one element in common: these activities are collective endeavours to understand, assess and handle risks to human health and the environment. These attempts are based on two requirements. On the one hand, risk managers need sufficient knowledge about the potential impacts of the risk sources under investigation and the likely consequences of the different decision options to control these risks. On the other hand, they need criteria to judge the desirability or undesirability of these consequences for the people affected and the public at large. This second part is an integral aspect of risk culture, understood as the systems of norms, vales and visions that an organization shares among its members Within the portfolio of organizational culture, criteria on desirability are reflections of social values such as good health, equity, or efficient use of scarce resources. Both components – knowledge and values – are necessary for any decision-making process independent of the issue and the problem context. Social unrest: a systemic risk perspective RENN, Ortwinn University of Stuttgart, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: RENN, Ortwinn [email protected] This paper develops a framework of social unrest based on a complex understanding of systemic risks. The term ‘systemic’ describes the extent to which any risk is embedded in the larger context of social and cultural aspects that shape our understanding of risks, influence our attention to causal relationships and trigger our activities for handling these risks. Social unrest can be grouped into this framework of systemic risks. It can be a cause of risk to others, it can be a consequence of experiencing risk (for example a terrorist threat) or the manifestation of such a risk (the actual terrorist attack) or it can be a promoter of a risk chain that is located in other functional systems of society (for example financial

regulators and the mechanisms for storage and exchange of rice in the event of a natural catastrophe or shortfall of production. It explains how in the event of a disaster in one province, the reserves accumulated by the pool can be used to supply rice back to the farmers in another province by releasing the stock pile reserves governed by the pool. This helps ensure the affected individuals are not deprived of food and price fluctuations caused by the resulting shortfall can be smoothened out. Keywords: crop insurance, volatility Risky talks and talking risks in disaster management: a way forward or backward? RAY-BENNETT, Nibedita Shankar University of Leicester, United Kingdom Presenting author: RAY-BENNETT, Nibedita Shankar [email protected] Since the conception of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015) in the World Disaster Conference in 2005, ‘risk’ is mainstreamed in all disaster management activities.

The Disaster Risk Management Programme (DRM) initiated jointly by the Government of India and the UNDP in India (20002-2007), cyclone-cum-flood shelter management in Bangladesh and the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 in the United Kingdom (to name a few) are some of the ways 'risk' is practiced.

In this light, I argue that the adoption of 'risk' as well as its application especially in the context of international development needs to be problematised: first, by questioning how risk reduction approach differs from the other approaches such as hazard management approach, vulnerability approach and consequent management approach. In doing so, I question is this ‘a way forward or backward’ for the disaster and development community who are committed to reduce poverty and vulnerability from the impact of environmental disasters.

Second, I posit that the ‘way forward’ would entail studying risk at the interface of socio-technology, communication, vulnerability and cultural theories.

In so doing, I posit that risk theories would not only generate substantially new ideas and approaches for managing disasters but also promote critical reflexivity amongst the DRR and development communities. Keywords: DRR, risk, vulnerability, disaster, development, communication, culture, socio-technology Social Perspectives on Land Degradation and Desertification: The Case of Migration and Conflict RECHKEMMER, Andreas Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland Presenting author: RECHKEMMER, Andreas [email protected] Growing evidence on the multifold linkages between climate change, land degra¬dation, the reduction of drylands ecosystem services, poverty, and migratory movements has raised the awareness of scholars and policy makers. These linkages were traditionally understood as the interplay

Presenting author: RODGERS, Ian [email protected] The Education sector in most countries can be described as a fairly flat hierarchical system that has deep roots and penetration at community level. By this nature it also means that ensuring consistency and compliance of standard operating procedures is difficult to roll out, monitor and verify. In addition often due to the sprawling nature of Education it is often administratively decentralized. This realistic approach to management can often have a negative effect on the centralization of important data such as how many schools, exact locations, staffing, attendance records, geo-spatial data of surrounding environments, structural designs, etc.. This type of data is key to disaster risk management and planning, particularly for external stakeholders such as local disaster management committees and response personnel this poses a challenge. There is consensus amongst stakeholders that the 3 core pillars of Safer Schools are Structural Safety, Disaster Risk Management of Schools and DRR Education. All three areas are interlinked and to some degree interdependent. However progress has not been even amongst the three pillars. Often Education institutes in country, donors, international organizations and CSO alike choose one pillar as an entry point. To this point recent studies have shown that great strides forward have been made in Structural Safety and DRR education pillars and less progress made in the integration of disaster risk management within school operations. During this presentation it will be discussed as to why this uneven take up has occurred. Propositions, examples and lessons learnt will be used to discuss how to encourage an increase in the second pillar of disaster risk management in schools. Key points of the presentation will include costs, human resources and capacity associated with Disaster Risk Management in Schools and who the key stakeholders outside the immediate confines of a school administration are. Development of guidelines for psychosocial support for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear (CBRN) incident ROOZE, Magda W. Impact/Arq Psychotrauma Expert Group, Netherlands, Kingdom of the Presenting author: ROOZE, Magda W. [email protected] The goal of this study is to develop a guideline for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of a CBRN incident, as a standard for quality psychosocial support, scientific, expert and consensus based.

The guidelines will be based on the ‘European guidelines for psychosocial early interventions after terrorism, disasters and other shocking events’ (Impact, 2007). And the ‘Guidelines psychosocial support for uniformed services’ (Impact, 2010), both developed in the context of a European project EUTOPA.

People’s own resilience is the starting point for these guidelines. The majority of people are able to cope with shocking events without the need of professional help, moreover uniformed services, (trained) volunteers and hospital are trained and educated to deal with complex emergency situations. From scientific literature it becomes

crisis). Since social unrest is more a process of escalation than a finite state of the world we have conceptualized the term in form of a step-by-step escalation scheme. Each step makes social unrest more likely and also if it then occurs more severe. In the course of this process, activities may get more and more radical, in particular if these collective protest actions are ignored or even oppressed (examples may be wild strikes, regional boycotts or blockades). In addition, our analysis includes social simulation attempts to identify emprically valid indicators for social unrest. One of the key variable is the relationship between facebook entries with critical remarks towrads the present regime and the number of political arrests. Keywords: Systemic Risk, Risk Governance, Social Unrest, framework of social unrest

Enhancing community resilience for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction – a case study from Cambodia RIZVI, Ali International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Presenting author: RIZVI, Ali [email protected] Several coastal communities in Cambodia, facing predicted sea-level rise coupled with poverty and degrading ecosystems, are at high risk from climate related changes and other disasters. IUCN and its local partners are implementing a 4-year EU funded project aiming at designing ecosystem-based adaptation and risk reduction pilot activities providing opportunities for other communities in the coastline to learn from each other. Koh Kapik, a fishing village of 1,100 people, is only accessible via boat. Assessment studies of the area indicate increasing mangrove deforestation, coastal erosion, high winds and frequent occurrence of storms for the past decade. There is significant increase in sedimentation causing the two kilometer primary access, to and from the village, via a creek almost impossible, forcing the villagers to use the open sea. This route, longer and unsafe due to strong tides, has resulted in the villagers spending more on fuel, damages to boats, and accidents; thereby, making access to markets, freshwater, health, education, etc. hazardous and expensive. This has also exposed the community to disasters; as in case of strong storms, the nearly impassable creek is the only escape route for the villagers. Hence, the local communities ranked creek rehabilitation as a top priority during the Vulnerability Assessment exercise. Further, a cost-benefit exercise pointed out the high return on investment for this activity due to resulting monetary and other benefits including risk reduction. IUCN is now facilitating the rehabilitation of the creek through ecosystem-sensitive planning. The area has been surveyed; the dredged sediment will be properly disposed and the mangrove replantation undertaken at appropriate sites to minimize future sedimentation. Possibilities of sustainable financing mechanisms are also being explored to develop a fund to be used for maintenance and conservation purposes. Disaster Risk Management in Schools – The Second Pillar RODGERS, Ian Save the Children

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training programs. During war time or disaster time how to use field hospital as support to population affected . Keywords: civilian and military cooperation, disasters, foreign field hospitals, hospital preparedness, International cooperation. GITEWS - The German Contribution to the Indonesian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning system: experiences and lessons learned RUDLOFF, Alexander German Research Centre for Geosciences - GFZ Presenting author: RUDLOFF, Alexander [email protected] The German initiative to design and construct an operational end-to-end tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean got underway directly after the 26 December 2004 tsunami in the region. First instruments as well as ocean monitoring sensors were already deployed a few months later in early 2005. During the entire technical installation phase, joint German-Indonesian academic and training workshops were held, in addition to training courses for maintenance proficiency. Moreover, capacity building and development measures were carried out at different stages. In conjunction with a PhD programme in Germany most capacity development processes were carried out in Indonesia comprising institutional consulting at national, regional and local levels as well as the development and implementation of tsunami preparedness measures and early warning mechanism in three selected pilot regions on Sumatra, Java and Bali. Seven years after commencement of this pioneering initiative, some milestones still remain to be taken. One important step was the coordinated handing over of the technical system to the Indonesian authorities in March 2011. Since then the warning centre operator is still accompanied by a project named PROTECTS, which supports the process of sustainability through intensive training, education and capacity development in Indonesia. Further support is given to the national disaster management agency BNPB and to provincial and local governments for integrating successful downstream measures. Through the GITEWS initiative and add-on funds, the warning and response capacity in place should reduce injury and fatalities in the case of future events. For further information please visit: http://www.gitews.org Role of local wisdom in rapidity of rehabilitation and reconstruction post earthquake in multireligious and monoreligious villages: a case in Bantul, Yogyakarta, Indonesia RUSLANJARI, Dina Graduate School, University of Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, Republic of Presenting author: RUSLANJARI, Dina [email protected] Earthquake which occurred on May 27, 2006 at 05:54 in Yogyakarta at magnitude 6.3 SR causing severe damage in Bantul Regency, especially Sumbermulyo Village, Bambanglipuro District which is a multireligious village and Wonokromo Village, Pleret District which is a monoreligious village. This research aims to determine the speed of rehabilitation and reconstruction after the earthquake, which is affected by the local wisdom that developed in both villages.

also clear that they have a high risk profession which asks for supportive measures.

Methods: Development of the guidelines in the specific context of CBRN on the basis of a complementary literature review (PubMed, PsychINFO, Embase 2001-2011), site visits to 7 different European countries to interview experts and workshops and conferences to reach consensus with the relevant stakeholders.

Results: first guidelines on psychosocial support for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of CBRN as a solid foundation for implementation in the different countries.

Discussion: The discussion will be on the process to create attention and backing for the guidelines amongst key stakeholders and how to take the differences into account among the different countries. Keywords: CBRN,guidelines,psychosocial support, uniformed services, volunteers ,hospital staff The dual use of field hospital in peace time and in war time. The Italian experience of Alpini field hospital during disasters. ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra (1); FACCINCANI, Roberto (1); LOSAPIO, Lucio Pantaleo (2); CARLUCCI, Michele (1) 1: San Raffaele Hospital Scientific Foundation, Milan, Italy; 2: Gruppo Intervento Medico-Chirurgico , Ospedale da CampoA.N.A. Italian Association of Alpini, Onlus Foundation; Bergamo, Italy Presenting author: ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra [email protected] In a “ disaster “ local health services can be overwhelmed, and damage to clinics and hospitals can render them usefulness. Damage to the health care infrastructure will further compromise the delivery of health services. A field hospital is a large mobile medical unit that temporarily takes care of casualties on-site before they can be safely transported to more permanent hospital facilities. Lessons from past complex disasters such as civil conflicts, wars, humanitarian emergencies showed that field hospitals – as temporary hospital civilian or military plays a significant but sometimes controversial role during disasters. The authors describe an Italian model of mobile field hospital of ANA - Italian association of Alpini, who had worked and works in a case of a disaster or an humanitarian crisis. This field hospital supports the activities of civil protection in national and international context, implementing local emergency services and hospital bed surge capacity in the treatment of mass-casualties for a specific period of time. The hospital on field of Alpines, born in 1976, and actually operates in Italy, jointly with the aid of two major Italian hospitals, the San Raffaele Hospital Scientific Foundation of Milan and “Ospedali Riuniti di Bergamo (Italy) “, and civil protection in different national and international context during disaster emergencies and humanitarian crises. The authors would like to suggest the dual use of a field hospital in supporting countries and population needs during disaster time and peace time. During peace time the use of a field hospital should be suggested as support in mass gatherings events; in public health prevention programs for population, in teaching role activities such as emergency and in disaster preparedness

by UN ISDR, Global Earthquake Model and the CAPRA (Caribbean Probabilistic Risk Assessment) initiative. Applying a standardized methodology to the collection of exposure data allows for the risks from disasters to be compared across geographical boundaries. An overview of GFDRR’s contribution will be presented. At the same time, data collected through these risk assessment activities should ideally be made open so that the potential of the data can be maximized. Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI), an initiative led by GFDRR Labs, is promoting the use of open source data platforms to store and visualize these datasets. Some example projects that have successfully collected open exposure data, hosted by national disaster management agencies will be introduced. Sustainable reconstruction of critical infrastructure SALEH, Alida Exp Services Inc., Canada / Harvard University Presenting author: SALEH, Alida [email protected] People are more vulnerable to the hazards of natural disasters than ever. Disasters, however offer a unique, though temporary, opportunities for effect change. Incorporating sustainable disaster prevention into reconstruction and recovery planning reduces the world’s vulnerability to such risks. Increasing resilience is imperative. However, no one is immune to the impacts of disaster once it strikes. Planning for risk that may strike at any time, yet occurs infrequently is difficult. It is also complicated to predict accurately the effects of natural disasters.The physical infrastructure sector is a vital part of all economies. These structures are planned, approved, built and operated according to standards and criteria established by regulatory entities. Critical city infrastructure must be safe post disaster in order to ensure rapid recovery. However, when essential infrastructure is damaged, future re-designing process must take appropriate measures to ensure its resilience. All too often, the reconstruction process is frequently designed to return a city to the conditions of their ‘normal’ pre-disaster state. Thus the city is a breeding ground to risks from future disasters and economic loss.This presentation will discuss the guiding principles and approaches during the post-disaster recovery phase, based on experiences and lessons learnt by a number of cities and municipalities during the recovery stage. The intent is to provide a framework to model development and share with other cities and municipalities best practices, strategies, tools and methodologies to enhance the resilience of their infrastructure. Furthermore, existing methods for estimating the financial impact of disasters will be discussed. The key is to enhance preparation, response, resilience, and recovery from hazards and disasters affecting the city’s critical infrastructure. Application of a number of emerging technologies available to monitor the various infrastructure elements from the identified potential threats will also be discussed. Keywords: Sustainable, Reconstruction, Recovery, Prevention, Cost-Benefit

The role of emergency transportation network in crisis

Local wisdom that developed in the multireligious village and monoreligious village is analyzed using qualitative-descriptive analysis. Differences in the rapidity of rehabilitation and reconstruction in the multireligious village and monoreligious village is determined by using quantitative analysis that is a statistical test: independent sample T-test. Implementation of local wisdom in the post-earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction by the community in multireligious village and monoreligious village is analyzed using qualitative-descriptive analysis.

The results showed local wisdom in Wonokromo Village (monoreligious village) is still influenced by the dominant religion that is Moslem, while in Sumbermulyo Village (multi-religious village), local wisdom is not affected by the dominant religious factor. There is significant differences of rehabilitation speed between Wonokromo Village and Sumbermulyo Village. Residential reconstruction speed in the monoreligious village is faster than multireligious village. However, the reconstruction of public facilities is faster in multireligious village, because the community are more willing to accept foreign aid. The rehabilitation of disaster victims run faster in monoreligious village, due to religious background similarity can support the understanding of fate and trust. Implementation of local wisdom in the post-earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction in multireligious village and monoreligious village is greatly influenced by the difference in religious affiliation of the community, acceptance of foreign aid, local institutional types that developed in the village, and local resources as the local skills. Keywords: local wisdom, rehabilitation, reconstruction, multireligious, monoreligious World Bank/GFDRR contributions to exposure modeling for global risk modeling initiatives and OpenDRI initiative SAITO, Keiko; KULL, Daniel; SODEN, Robert; BACA, Abigail World Bank, United States of America Presenting author: KULL, Daniel [email protected] Risk assessments for natural hazards are starting points for disaster mitigation activities. The results from the assessments allow the stakeholder to have an understanding of the underlying risk present in the location in question. This enables the planning of appropriate interventions to be made. Risk is often defined as the product of the hazard, exposure (e.g. physical assets) and its vulnerability given certain hazard intensities. The quality of the exposure data that is fed into the risk models has a significant impact on the output from the risk model. Exposure data has traditionally been collected using official census data. Often in these cases, aggregate level statistics required disaggregation for the data to match the scale of the geographical unit used for the risk modeling. In the recent years, bottom up methodologies to model the assets exposed against potential natural hazards. Some involve the use of tools including hand held devices, remotely sensed data and sampling schemes.

GFDRR is contributing to several global risk modeling initiatives, namely Global Assessment Report (GAR) led

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modelling the empirical distributions of harmful events with a Zipf distribution. Comparison of the societal risk posed by landslide and flood events to the risk posed by earthquakes, and volcanic events showed that the frequency and the severity of the geophysical and the meteorological harmful events are different. The results of this study are significant for the quantification of the risk posed by natural hazards to the population of Italy. Keywords: landslide, flood, mortality, societal risk Crisis, communication, social media SCHANNE, Michael Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften Presenting author: SCHANNE, Michael [email protected] Social media may serve as relevant means of information and communication in times and situations of crisis. This will be exemplified from the case of a combined natural disaster – industrial accident – willful negligence of security and safety standards event (Official Report, Executive Summary: The Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission): marine earthquake – tsunami – and the subsequent meltdown in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant following March 11, 2011.

Social media is a most general term that holds together blogs, micro-blogs, forums, audio-photo-video-sharing, wikis, social bookmarking, social networking and other digital tools and applications that facilitate interactive communication and content exchange among and between individuals, audiences, publics, organizations. On the one hand these may serve as direct means of information and communication. On the other hand these may serve to monitor issues and environments for authorities to get a coherent picture of the situation. The relevance of Integrative Risk Management to RCRC programming SCHMALE, Matthias International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), Switzerland Presenting author: SCHMALE, Matthias [email protected] The International Federation of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies’ participation at the Global Risk Forum aims at promoting the complementarity of “Integrative Risk Management” and practical application of lessons from pandemic preparedness.

The whole-of society preparedness approach by multiple stakeholders helped better preparion for wide-ranging, unpredictable threats. Strengthening multi-disciplinary partnerships is crucial to Red Cross Red Crescent work and to cross-sectoral responses. Most of IFRC’s 13.1 million active volunteers are engaged in Health, Disaster Management and Risk Reduction. They are critical actors to strengthening resilience in their respective communities. The 187 National Societies, as auxiliary to their governments, also play an active role in promoting collaborative planning, in raising awareness and in advocating for policies in different domains.

Climate change, urbanisation, violence or migration are risk

management SALEH, Fatemeh Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran Presenting author: SALEH, Fatemeh [email protected] Increasing safety and decreasing casualties and societies financial lost in unforeseen disasters, such as earthquake are among the goals for preparation and development of master plan for urban areas. Determining and developing Emergency Road Network to easy access for the survivors and victims of the disasters in search and relief operation is an important part of the plan. Tehran as a megalopolis, with 700 square kilometers and more than 8 million people (above 11 million in work hour) with vulnerable urban and complex physical features and high population density requires efficient and meaningful disaster management plan including a series of mitigation, preparedness and reliable emergency response plans to identified the possible hazard risks and to could face and manage the disasters in its own area. Cities in different ways have been affected by natural disasters, but urban planners must prepare plans for overcrowding, effective relief operation, Emergency Road Network, and safe emergency evacuation in advance. Identify and improvement of identify emergency roads both in primary and secondary should be carried out fully for preparation to occurrence of disaster. This article tries to introduce the primary study in the city of Tehran for Emergency Road Network system. Keywords: Emergency transportation Network, critical routs, relief operation, vulnerability, disaster management Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy SALVATI, Paola; BIANCHI, Cinzia; ROSSI, Mauro; GUZZETTI, Fausto CNR - IRPI, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: SALVATI, Paola [email protected] In Italy, landslides and floods are widespread, recurrent and dangerous phenomena. Using an historical catalogue of landslide and flood events with human consequences, we assessed individual and societal geo-hydrological risk levels in Italy. The historical catalogue covers the period from AD 68 to 2011 and list information on 3,559 landslide events in 3,021 sites and on 2,785 flood events in 2,040 sites. Between 1900 and 2011, at least 1,402 landslide events that have caused more than 8,081 casualties in 816 municipalities, and at least 978 flood events that have caused more than 4,925 casualties in 645 municipalities, have occurred in Italy. In the 7-year recent period 2005-2011 all the 20 Italian Regions have suffered at least one landslide or flood event with casualties. These figures indicate that geo-hydrological risk to the population is severe and widespread in Italy. In this country, establishing landslide and flood risk levels is therefore a problem of both scientific and societal interest. To study individual landslide and flood risk, we determined mortality rates, measured by the number of fatalities per 100,000 people in a period of one year, and we used census data to estimate the geographical and temporal variation of landslide and flood mortality in the 150-year period 1861-2010. To determine societal risk levels, we established the probability of experiencing severe landslide and flood events

release of radioactivity was identified, and inventories, release fractions & probabilities were either taken from publicly available sources or estimated on the base of similar facilities. Then, numerical dispersion calculations were carried out with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART for a domain covering whole of Europe and the Mediterranean, for 2800 real cases distributed over eleven years, using the Vienna Scientific Cluster supercomputing facility. The output in terms of air concentration and ground contamination is gathered with 1 degree resolution on the whole domain and on a nested grid (10W-32E, 36N-61N) with about 10 km grid size. From these results, statistics about contamination exceeding thresholds, for example for the ground contamination with Cs-137, are derived and presented in maps. Furthermore, effective and thyroid doses are calculated for different integration periods, relevant to different emergency measures, and statistics are built for them as well. These tools allow to see, inter alia, the geographical distribution of risks (considering also estimates for accident frequency) and hazards ("worst cases") as well as the changes for future scenarios of nuclear power development and the import and export of risk by country. The most important results will be made available through the project web site flexrisk.boku.ac.at, where some preliminary results are already available.

The project flexRISK is financed by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund. Keywords: nuclear energy, nuclear accidents, atmospheric dispersion, A Global Mapping of Disaster Risk Reduction Curriculum SELBY, David; KAGAWA, Fumiyo Sustainability Frontiers Presenting author: SELBY, David [email protected] This presentation will highlight the key findings of a conjoint UNICEF/UNESCO mapping study of the integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR) into primary and secondary school curriculum globally. Across 30 case studies, the study examines disciplinary, interdisciplinary and cross-disciplinary manifestations of DRR in the curriculum, strategies for introducing disaster risk reduction into school curricula, pedagogies employed in teaching disaster risk reduction, teacher professional development, DRR learning outcomes and approaches to mainstreaming DRR in the school system. Each of these areas will be briefly reviewed in the presentation. It will be argued that DRR tends to appear in a narrow band of school subjects, typically the physical and natural sciences, with little horizontal integration or learning reinforcement across the curriculum. Vertical (through the grade levels) integration of DRR learning is likewise thin. Also, although DRR ambitions are oriented towards competency-building and learner engagement in and with the community, the limited use of participatory pedagogies rather stifles the ambition. Expressed ambitions notwithstanding, forms of learning assessment currently being employed do not lend themselves to measuring whether capacities and dispositions for disaster risk reduction are being cultivated but more or less adhere to traditional testing of knowledge. Systematic professional development directed towards

multipliers that contribute to emerging health challenges such as epidemics and pandemics. Meeting these challenges requires use of existing tools and knowledge, innovative approaches and increasing use of new technologies like social media or mobile phones.

For example, in the 2012 wake of the Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease health crisis in Vietnam, the Red Cross mobilized hundreds of volunteers to conduct a massive public information campaign. After assessments and consultations with authorities, the National Society contributed to the national response taking into consideration the IFRC-led Humanitarian Pandemic Preparedness (H2P) Global Program experience. Posters and video clips from the H2P ‘Your best defence is you’ campaign with adapted messages were spread. The retraining of 750 volunteers used relevant modules from pandemic training materials. The prompt production of a wide range of public information tools to educate parents and carers reached 145,000 households.

Through the whole-of-society multi-hazard approach, an important paradigm shift from working in silos to cross-sectoral solutions is happening in humanitarian work. On risk governance - a reinsurer's view SCHRECKENBERG, Stephan Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue Presenting author: SCHRECKENBERG, Stephan [email protected] A good risk governance and risk culture is essential for the assessment and appropriate management of risk and related uncertainties. This holds true for the private sector on a company level as well as the public sector. This presentation will highlight some of the key aspects from a reinsurer's point of view and exemplify how these can be successfully applied in designing effective risk adaptation, mitigation or transfer solutions. Examples will include risk transfer mechanisms on the country or supra-national level such as Swiss Re's earthquake risk solutions for the Government of Mexico as well as the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility. Severe accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe: possible consequences and mapping of risk SEIBERT, Petra (1); ARNOLD, Delia (1,4); MRAZ, Gabriele (3); ARNOLD, Nikolaus (2); GUFLER, Klaus (2); KROMP-KOLB, Helga (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (2); SUTTER, Philipp (3); WENISH, Antonia (3) 1: Institute of Meteorology, BOKU, Austria, Republic of; 2: Institute for Security and Risk Sciences, BOKU, Austria, Republic of; 3: Austrian Institute of Ecology, Austria, Republic of; 4: Institute of Energy Technologies (INTE), Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Barcelona, Spain Presenting author: SEIBERT, Petra [email protected] In the past three years, an interdisciplinary project to assess the risks and hazards associated with potential severe accidents in nuclear power plants in Europe and adjacent regions (Turkey, Iran) has been carried out which will finish soon. For 82 sites with a total of about 220 reactor units under operation or construction, detailed studies have been carried out. For each unit, a severe accident scenario with substantial

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China; 4: School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, China; 5: The University of Maryland, USA Presenting author: SHI, Peijun [email protected] Though there have been different views on the disaster chain in the academic field, basically it can be summed up into two categories. One is mass phenomenon of hazards caused by the triggering of a factor in the earth system; the other is a chain of series of secondary disaster caused by hazard factors. The former is called hazard chain, the latter is disaster chain. The disaster chain can be divided into two types, namely serials one and parallel one, and the former one is usually caused by hazard chain. The formation of the hazard chain mainly relates to physical hazard-formative environments, and the formation of disaster chain is closely related to physical hazard-formative environments and exposures. The evolution of the hazard chain is the result of physical process changes of the earth system, while the change of the disaster chain is mainly the result of surface processes of the earth system, especially its geographic processes. Disaster chain risk assessment and multi-disaster risk assessment are fundamentally different. For the risk assessment of hazard chain, besides considering the probability of each hazard, it shall be assessed in a certain spatial-temporal condition, then the risk is assessed by combining the vulnerability curve of each hazard. However, for risk assessment of a disaster chain, in addition to the probability of the first hazard, possibility that lead to secondary hazard shall also be assessed in a certain spatial-temporal condition, then to assess the disaster chain risk according to the vulnerability curve of each hazard under background of the disaster chain. Enhancement of disaster chain risk assessment has a significant theoretical and practical value for large-scale disasters, as well as the scientific basis of foundation of integrated risk governance mode. Keywords: hazard chain, disaster chain, cause of disaster chain, risk assessment system and cases. Relationship of the environmental risk and surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau - a remote sensing evidence approach SHI, Qinqing (1); LIANG, Shunlin (1); SHI, Peijun (2,3,4) 1: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, United States of America; 2: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; 3: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China; 4: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China Presenting author: SHI, Peijun [email protected] The Tibetan plateau with the average elevation above 4000km is considered to be “the third pole” of the earth, where lies Asia’s ‘the water tower” supporting billions of people and controls the formation of East Asian monsoon. Although there are limited stations over the Tibetan plateau, the development of remote sensing techniques since 1980s offered another way to characterize the spatial-temporal variation of environmental risk induced by surface radiance budget over the Tibetan plateau. The objective of this study is to identify what kind of risk will be generated due to the change in surface radiation budget in the Tibetan plateau based on more

developing the 'DRR facilitative and reflective practitioner' is called for. In short, while there are noteworthy examples of curriculum development, use of active pedagogies and successful movement to scale, there is still much to do if the commitment of the ISDR Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction to integrating DRR into school curricula worldwide by 2015 is to be realized. The presenters will make a series of recommendations for narrowing, if not closing, the gap between ambition and actuality. Analyzing the urban functions to prioritize urban flood resilient actions SERRE, Damien (1); LHOMME, Serge (1); TOUBIN, Marie (1); DIAB, Youssef (1); LAGANIER, Richard (2) 1: EIVP, France; 2: Université Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité Presenting author: SERRE, Damien [email protected] The behavior of the civil engineering infrastructures, and their interactions during a flood event, will have consequences on the flood risk level in the built environment. By civil engineering we include on one hand the flood defenses, able to increase the flood risk in case of failures, on the other hand the urban technical networks able to spread the flood risk in cities.

From history, most of cities in the world have been built close to coast lines or to river to beneficiate this means of communication and trade. Step by step, to avoid being flooded, defenses like levees have been built. The capacity of the levees to retain the floods depends on their conditions, their performance level and the capacity of the authorities to well maintain these infrastructures.

Then, in case of levee break, cities will be flooded. The urban technical networks, due to the way they have been designed, their conditions and their locations in the city, will play a major role in the diffusion of the flood extent. Also, the flood risk will have consequences in some not flooded neighborhoods due to networks collapses.

Firstly we will describe the methods we are using to determine the performance level of flood defenses and the level or resilience of the urban networks with three specific capacities (resistance, absorption and recover). Secondly an integrated spatial decision support system will be presented through one application in a European city. As a result, recommendations for prioritizing flood resilient actions will be made. Keywords: Urban Flood Resilience; Urban Networks; Flood Defenses Formation mechanism, process and risk evaluation system of disaster chain SHI, Peijun (1,2,3); WANG, Jing’ai (1,3,4); XU, Wei (2,3); SHUAI, Jiabing (1,2); LU, Lili (1,2); KONG, Feng (1,2); SHI, Qinqing (5) 1: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; 2: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China; 3: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University,

be a way of disaster education from science communication perspective. In addition, in order to prove the feasibility of implementing volunteers in Japanese disaster education centres, a few practices from the UK are also introduced. Keywords: Disaster Education, Disaster Education Centre, Volunteers, The Risk Factory What kind of disaster education should be explored after the Great East Japan Earthquake? SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki Kansai University, Japan Presenting author: SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki [email protected] Since the Great East Japan Earthquake, disaster education especially school disaster education has become a large issue in Japan. This is because there are typical cases which proved the usefulness of disaster education in both positive and negative situations. For instance, one of famous positive situation is a story in the city of Kamaishi. In Kamaishi, there have been disaster education activities in schools for several years in collaboration with a university. When the earthquake happened, the well-educated students could evacuate properly since they had learnt about the risk of tsunami and how to evacuate. Although more than 1200 people died in the city of Kamaishi, as for school children almost all students were survived.

Based on the mentioned above lessons from the East Japan Earthquake, Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology establish a committee for discussing future disaster education. The committee had reviewed the current Japanese disaster education and they suggested including “Disaster Prevention” as one of teaching subjects in Japanese National Curriculum. However, looking back the history of Japanese disaster education shows this inclusion plan would not work well.

In this presentation, it will be explained the reason why inclusion of disaster prevention into the national curriculum would not work well as disaster education from historical and theoretical points of view. In addition to pointing out the reason, one of alternative ways of expanding disaster education in Japanese context will be proposed. Keywords: Disaster Education, the Great East Japan Earthquake, Japanese Disaster Education History, National Curriculum Spatio-temporal analyses of the impacts of extreme weather events on renewable energies and advancing local decision-making in climate mitigation concepts SIEBER, Jeannette European Institute for Energy Research (EIFER), Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: SIEBER, Jeannette [email protected] The goal of the presentation is to answer the following research questions: (i) Which regions in Germany (community level) and which kind of Renewable Energies are mostly influences by extreme weather events (EWEs)? (ii)How can they adapt and be adapted to climate change and the increase of EWEs? (iii) How can decision-making on a local level be improved?

than two decades of remote sensing products. The mechanism of the relationship between surface energy budget changes and corresponding impacts of environmental risks in the Tibetan plateau can be summarized in five categories: 1) risk of snow-permafrost grassland ecosystem; 2) risk of regional variation of precipitation; 3) risk of desertification; 4) risk of regional agriculture; 5) risk of drought and heat waves. Based on fifty-year historical records of natural disaster over the Tibetan plateau, this study first validated the accuracy of NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB 3.0) remote sensing data using eleven-year ground measurements from AsiaFLUX, ChinaFLUX, GAME-ANN and CEOP over the Tibetan plateau, then explored the relationship between the occurrences of disaster and the variations in surface energy budget over the Tibetan plateau from GEWEX SRB products. The result proves that both the tendency and the variation of the surface radiation budget act as important roles with the frequency and intensity of natural disasters including drought, floods and hot waves. Therefore, this paper offers a way to apply remote sensing surface radiation budget products in the environmental risk area, providing an important energy aspect of information for risk mitigation, governance and risk projections in the Tibetan plateau. Keywords: The Tibet Plateau, surface energy budget, environmental risk, GEWEX SRB 3.0 Volunteers in disaster education centres: another important role of disaster education centres SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki Kansai University, Japan Presenting author: SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki [email protected] It can be said that one of the biggest problems of current disaster education in Japan is the style of communication that is one way from experts to non-experts. In other words, disaster education has been simply defined as an activity that transfers knowledge of disasters and disaster management from experts to non-experts, i.e. general public. However, some recent studies show that even though Japanese public has enough level of knowledge of disasters and disaster management, most of them do not prepare for disasters. One of the main reasons why Japanese public do not prepare for disasters is that they think experts would help them in the end when a disaster happens. This is because the experts behave as experts at normal times in consequence of division of labour. However, disaster can be defined as the situation that experts cannot deal with hazards properly. In order to make general public understand this reality, chances of collaborative work with experts should be provided as one of the new ways of disaster education.

There are over 60 disaster education centres in Japan. These education centres provide a way of learning about disasters and disaster management for the visitors through mainly their displays and interactions with the attendants. These centres are usually managed by local fire authorities. And most of the attendees are hired by the authorities or local government etc. This means these centres are run by so-called experts; hence there must be some space for improving these centres from the above-described point of view.

In this presentation, it is proposed that becoming volunteers can

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Recognizing its global role in promoting the Rights of children to Education, and that:

1- Disasters may result in the damage or destruction of learning facilities and materials, the closure of schools and the prolonged disruption of education, increased barriers to education, limited access to schooling, and decreased education quality; and that

2- The overarching objective of DRR in education is the systematic integration of the analysis of disaster risks and DRR measures into education sector development policy, planning and financing obligations.

UNICEF promotes globally and at country level three commonly accepted goals relating to DRR education and school safety:

(1) promotion of DRR in teaching and learning;(2) provision of safe school environments; and(3) promotion of school safety and disaster management, e.g. drills.

Throughout the World, in the Caucasus, East Asia, Africa, or South America, UNICEF is a major player in making school safer along these three dimensions.

This presentation will aim at presenting UNICEF's global approach to DRR education, and will provide examples of successes in countries where the organization has been promoting specific programmes for DRR Education. Policies for managing volatility in staple food prices in West Africa STAATZ, John; DEMBÉLÉ, Niama Nango; DIALLO, Boubacar Michigan State University Presenting author: STAATZ, John [email protected] Staple food prices in West Africa, in addition to generally following predictable trends and normal seasonal variations, are frequently volatile, characterized by large and unpredictable variations that create serious problems for farmers, traders, processors, consumers, and government. Some of this volatility is “internal”, caused by structural characteristics of staple food production and markets in the region and by unpredictable and frequent changes in national trade policies. Some of the volatility is imported, reflecting the unpredictable variability in international markets, with which the West African markets have become increasingly integrated since the 1990s. Managing this volatility is a large challenge for all actors in the food system. The challenge for national policy makers is compounded by the political need to balance the interests of consumers and other stakeholders in the food system, such as farmers and traders.

This presentation will focus on efforts by West African governments to manage price volatility since the international price spikes of 2007-08. Many of these policies have involved trade restrictions and heavy government subsidies to farmers and to consumers, raising questions about whether such

By following three main approaches, these questions will be answered. The first step consists of a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based analyses of spatial and temporal distribution of EWEs and Renewable Energies by taking into account statistics of measured extreme events. Therein, measured EWEs and Renewable Energy Units are mapped on a community level using three time slices between 1980 and 2009. The second approach uses a literature review of possible adaptation measures and displays them on the most affected structures. Consequently, there will be a ranking of best practice solutions in the context of climate change. The last point is the transfer of these findings into a decision-support for communes, cities and regions in planning issues. Here, the options of localisation for renewable energies in an adapted manner help to improve the concept of local climate mitigation strategies.

Thus, the presentation will be structured into five sections: (i) the identification of extreme weather events and their impact on electricity infrastructures, (ii) the statistical analyses of the occurrence of EWEs in the years 1980-2009, (iii) the display of electricity infrastructures and EWEs in a spatial and temporal context, (iv) the implementation of adaptation options and (v) the implementation of the results into local climate mitigation strategies. The final discussion will take into account that EWEs are mostly registered in highly populated areas and therefore more rural areas might be underrepresented in the analyses. Keywords: Renewable Energies, Extreme Weather Events, Local Climate Mitigation, Local Climate Adaptation Black swans, shapeshifters and flexibility SIKICH, Geary Wayne Logical Management Systems, Corp., United States of America Presenting author: SIKICH, Geary Wayne [email protected] Is your organization plagued by shapeshifters? It is naïve to try to predict the effects of a change in the competitive landscape entirely on the basis of relationships observed in historical data, especially highly aggregated historical data. Unpredictability is the new norm. “Because we are asking the wrong questions precisely, we are getting the wrong answers precisely; and as a result we are creating false positives.” Unless we change the paradigm of competitive intelligence, we will continue to get false positives and find ourselves reacting to events instead of being proactive. This session presents a discussion of 12 steps to refocus competitive intelligence and temper the impact of shapeshifters. The session take-away inlcudes (1) 12 steps for competitive intelligence program development; (2) “Active Analysis” framework and analysis tools; (3) 11 shapeshifters that will affect competitive intelligence. Keywords: Shapeshifter, Black Swan, Improbable Event, Unpredictability Disaster risk reduction and education SIMONIAN, Guillaume Preparedness & DRR Section; United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Presenting author: SIMONIAN, Guillaume [email protected]

conflicts and natural disasters. Food insecurity remains one of the most visible outcomes of this protracted complex emergency. This insecurity is further exacerbated by frequent natural disasters especially droughts that occur cyclically in Afghanistan. In 2011, a drought affected 14 of the 34 provinces contributing to the 7.4 million people that remain food insecure. Our study profiles the impact of the 2011 drought in six provinces of Northern Afghanistan using a combination of qualitative and quantitative assessment tools. Results indicate an average reduction of 90% in the production of wheat in 2011 across the six provinces as compared to the previous year. This translates to a yield of 134 kg/Jerib in 2011 as compared to 1407 kg/Jerib. As a result, 60% of the households relied on food assistance while 55% coped by selling livestock to buy food. Other coping mechanisms at household level included borrowing from relatives, begging, child labour and migration among others. The paper aims to further detail and discuss the impact as well as other coping mechanisms among the communities across the six provinces in Afghanistan. In addition, various recommendations including the role of micro finance, cross border trade, technological innovations and access to markets will be discussed among other recommendations. Keywords: impact, natural disasters, drought, coping mechanisms, rural communities. Disaster management information network - a community-based multi-hazard early warning information communication process SYED, Md. Abu (1); RAHMAN, A.K.M. Atiqur (2); MAAINUDDIN, Golam (3); AHMED, Atiq K. (4) 1: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Bangladesh; 2: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Bangladesh; 3: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Bangladesh; 4: Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC), Bangkok, Thailand Presenting author: SYED, Md. Abu [email protected] This study aimed to assess early warning (EW) information flow between warning sources, through intermediate to community and households; and design and test appropriate disaster management information network (DMIN)(s) for operational use. The research has focused on developing methodology and modalities that would be replicable, sustainable in future and in other geographical locations. Blending household surveys and stakeholder interactions, an empirical field assessment called “Community Level Information Flow Mapping Assessment (CLIFMA)” was carried out throughout the country covering five major natural disasters viz. cyclone, riverine flood, flash flood, river bank erosion and landslide. Existing practices of community based EW, perceptions and preferences on EW issues were investigated. On the basis of the reviews and CLIFMA findings two sets of designs were proposed: one for rapid onset hazards and the other one for slow and seasonal slow onset ones. DMIN designs were then taken to the field pilot testing and demonstrative “simulations/mock-drill” to validate the proposed design. Piloting has resulted in identifying systematic designs for bringing the community level EW information down to household level. It recommended a network for the rapid onset, seasonal and slow onset hazards respectively and particularly a “parallel information sharing” to the community level was identified as a crucial system

policies are sustainable in the future. Reliance on regional and international markets as food security instruments has been damaged, as countries have tried to increase national food self-sufficiency under the banner of “food sovereignty.” The presentation will review policies undertaken and their impacts on farmers, traders, processors, and consumers. It will also examine some of the options proposed for more effective management of such volatility under the ECOWAS regional Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and outline some of the remaining policy changes in dealing with price volatility in the region.

Risk reduction index - methodology and preliminary findings STEEN, Nicolai; CAMACHO, Belen; PALEY, Belen DARA International, Spain, Kingdom of Presenting author: STEEN, Nicolai [email protected] The content of DARA’s presentation will be the Risk Reduction Index (RRI) methodology. The RRI provides in‐depth analysis of existing conditions and capacities for disaster risk reduction (DRR) in a country. This analysis is carried out within geographically well‐defined, risk-prone areas called Representative Territorial Units (RTU), and is based on four risk drivers: (1) environment and natural resources; (2) socioeconomic conditions; (3) land use and the built environment; and (4) governance. Each of these risk drivers is made up of a respective system of indicators, and represents sectors where risks are mostly represented. In this way, the RRI focuses on identifying the underlying risk factors (Hyogo Framework for Action, Priority for Action 4) that increase people’s vulnerability to hazards. A first pilot phase of the RRI was carried out in seven countries in Central America during 2010. DARA is now undertaking a second phase in a similar number of countries in West Africa. A third phase is also in the planning stages, as the RRI aims to be a practical tool that can be applied to different risk contexts world-wide. The RRI methodology is innovative in its focus on measuring stakeholders’ perceptions of underlying risk factors, and its analysis at the sub‐national level, or within the RTU. These stakeholders represent six sectors in the RTU, a geographical area defined in terms of hazards and patterns of vulnerability, and not necessarily according to administrative boundaries. Findings, including policy recommendations and concrete action points related to existing capacities and conditions for DRR, are validated through multi‐stakeholder seminars that take place at RTU, national and regional levels. Our three‐tier approach (bottom‐up) ensures that local‐level risk drivers are brought to the attention of both national and regional policy-makers. The presentation will include lessons learned from Central America and preliminary data from West Africa. Keywords: Risk, Reduction, Index, Methodology Impact of the 2011 drought among communities in Afghanistan SUMAR, Salim; TAJ, Laila Naz Focus Humanitarian Assistance Europe Foundation, United Kingdom Presenting author: TAJ, Laila Naz [email protected] Afghanistan has endured decades of political instability,

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TATANO, Hirokazu (1); KAJITANI, Yoshio (2) 1: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; 2: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan Presenting author: TATANO, Hirokazu [email protected] The paper aims at presenting a methodology to estimate production capacity losses after the disaster to identify the major sources of impacts as well as to test the forecasting capability of available models. Data collected from pre- and post-disaster business surveys in Japan are utilized to develop empirical models for capacity loss estimation. Fragility curves for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors that have been developed to relate ground motion to production capacity loss from facility damage. The paper also employs resilience factors to estimate the production capacity under conditions of lifeline disruption. A case study is conducted for the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami March 11th, 2011. The validity of the proposed methodology is verified by checking the fitness between observed data, the industrial production index, and the estimated production capacity ratio. We find that the proposed method has a relatively good fit for the observed data. Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe Directive (INSPIRE): contribution towards seismic risk and loss assessment TAUCER, Fabio Federico Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of Presenting author: TAUCER, Fabio Federico [email protected] The challenges regarding the lack of availability, quality, organisation, accessibility, and sharing of spatial information are common to a large number of policies and activities. In order to solve these problems it is necessary to take measures of coordination between the users and providers of spatial information. The Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council adopted on 14 March 2007 aims at establishing an Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community (INSPIRE) for policies and activities that have an impact on the environment. A number of spatial data themes dealing with geographical, environmental and infrastructure data have been identified. Among these, a Task Working Group was set up for the production of harmonised data specifications on the theme “Buildings” (TWG BU), corresponding to Annex II/III of the INSPIRE Directive. The data specifications were generated responding to the needs of user requirements in the areas of safety, environment, urban expansion and infrastructures. The TWG BU provides two kinds of semantic profiles: a normative core profile based on data widely available whose harmonisation is required at European level (such as height, number of floors, building use and building nature, date of construction and number of dwellings, among others), and an extended profile based on data that is widely required but that is rarely available (material of facade, roof and structure, floors below ground, material of structure, official area). This data provides information describing the attributes of the elements at risk, in particular buildings, necessary for determining their vulnerability and associated fragilities. The harmonization of such data will provide ease of use and access for the constructing of building inventories and will allow for inter-comparable results from seismic risk analysis

for effective dissemination, preparedness and immediate actions. This parallel system of EW resulted bringing in along a system for rapid notification of the communities and households during the pre-disaster situation and would be useful for saving lives, livelihoods and assets for the community as well as households. Another key finding, the geographically-location specific and timelier dissemination of EW at ground level introduced “local referencing systems” (riverine flood) and this allowed the remote and differentially located geographical areas to identify EW information, disseminate and maintain the local referencing system for their own areas and localities. Keywords: climate change, disaster risk reduction, community, early warning, local referencing, disaster management information network (DMIN) Policy impact and livelihood recovery of retailers in earthquake affected cities TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan The University of Melbourne, Australia Presenting author: TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan [email protected] The purpose of this paper is to develop an understanding of the long-term recovery process of retailers in two cities of Bam in Iran and Bhuj in India affected by earthquakes in 2003 and 2001 respectively. Drawing upon field data collection in these two cities and examination of policy documents, the paper focuses on identifying the ramifications of recovery programmes for livelihood recovery of small businesses and retailers located within the old fabric of these cities. The discussion about the ways in which recovery policies have facilitated or impeded retailers’ capability to recover from the earthquake-induced impacts should be viewed in the wider context of post-disaster recovery process. On this basis, this investigation is pursued by looking at a range of the recovery programme’s considerations at different levels, from policies targeting the economic revival of the affected region and livelihood initiatives in the city, to policies dealing with micro-level recovery of small businesses that have impinged upon recovery trajectory of these groups. The paper compares and contrasts the recovery policies at these different levels, while locating them in the overall socio-political context in which the recovery process has taken place. Despite differences in recovery approach between the two case studies, similar issues including difficulties of tenant shopkeepers and small neighbourhood retailers - compared to those trading in business niches in these cities - as well as inefficiency of direct interventions of public sector in benefiting the earthquake-affected groups are identified. These problems and disparities are argued to primarily stem from the recovery policies that have been shaped and reshaped by competing economic and political forces in these two societies. The paper concludes with some policy recommendations for formulating more inclusive livelihood recovery programmes in disaster-affected cities of developing countries. Keywords: Livelihood recovery, retailers, post-earthquake recovery, urban reconstruction Measuring industrial production capacity caking account of malfunctions of production capital and lifeline systems disruptions caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March, 2011

such as HAZOP, HAZID, JSA, FMEA, etc. Each of these methods has its own specifications and subsequently its specific pros and cons. Also, every method has a specific scope of application and there is NO generic and complete method for assessing all types of risks in all types of organizations. However, based on statistics and experience of authors, FMEA (created by NASA) is the most common method and has the biggest numbers of users in industry with a large scope of use; from quality, health and safety to environment, business continuity and information security.

This article will focus on the main elements of this methodology and will elaborate the phases that must be undertaken when an organization uses FMEA for assessing its risks. The features and Pros and Cons of FMEA form the ending section of the extended abstract. Keywords: Threat, Environmental Aspect, Hazard, Impact, Severity, Likelihood, Vastness, Risk Priority Number, Action Plan Multi-Agency Surge Tactical Facility (MAST-F) - applicable lessons from a mobile hospital team THRALLS, Michael Kellyn (1,2,3) 1: MESH, United States of America; 2: Indianapolis EMS, United States of America; 3: Developing World Missions, INC., United States of America Presenting author: THRALLS, Michael Kellyn [email protected] MESH is a non-profit healthcare coalition operating in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. In addition to providing daily healthcare intelligence, policy analysis and training it also provides assistance in the recovery phase. One of the recovery assets is the MAST-F or the Multi-Agency Surge Tactical Facility. The MAST-F is a Western Shelter product used as a 25-bed mobile hospital system, a cooling station, a command post, or a training facility. In this session learn about the intelligence pushed out to the team prior to deployment, training of the team, how MESH uses volunteers, storage and transportation of the system and more. There are many concepts which you could borrow and apply to your unique system.

Once the decision is made to deploy the MAST-F the intelligence team provides topographic maps of the deployment area, risk analysis, resource proximity and weather forecast. During activation up-to-date data is pushed to the team providing changes in weather and other critical intelligence.

The team made up of volunteers from all walks of life (firefighters, emts and paramedics, nurses, students, real estate professionals, day laborers, etc.) Learn how the team is trained and remains engaged throughout the year.

The MAST-F provides nearly 1500 square feet (457 meters) of covered floor space, fluorescent lighting, temperature controlled heating and air conditioning, 25-70 Kw diesel generators, desk space, benches, hospital beds, cots, waters systems and many other items. The storage containers for these things weight from 100-400 pounds (45-181 Kg). How is this stored? How is it deployed? Keywords: Preparedness, recovery, intelligence, volunteer, logistic

and loss assessment at regional and European level. EU disaster risk reduction in the Asia Pacific: reducing the social vulnerability of children TAYLOR, Genevieve University of Canterbury, New Zealand Presenting author: TAYLOR, Genevieve [email protected] To reflect the increased global recognition of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), the European Union has generated a common DRR strategy under is disaster preparedness mechanism DIPECHO. Often the risks identified in DRR policies focus on technical or infrastructural risks associated with disasters, and social risks tend to be disregarded. Children represent one vulnerable faction where social risks may go unacknowledged in DRR strategies. Such policy formation is nevertheless an important preventative measure of ensuring the protection of children and their rights during and after a disaster. While there has been a positive shift in the EU’s recognition of the vulnerability of children in several of its foreign policy initiatives, it is yet to fully reflect this in its DRR policy or programming. While there has been an escalation of literature surrounding the importance of DRR programming, some of which focussing on South East Asian countries, often the Pacific is unacknowledged. Moreover, there is yet to be an examination of the EU’s DRR strategy in the region, and whether such implementation is effective in reducing the risks faced by children in the Asia Pacific. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the collaborations between the EU and its child-focused partners over recent years in the Asia Pacific region to assist children at a time of crisis through DRR policy formation and programming. This research challenges the traditional, technical preventative measures for disasters by employing a complex and innovative theoretical framework based on social vulnerability and human security. Through this doctrine, extensive policy mapping and a unique data set is evaluated to assess the DRR policy and programming of the EU. This paper thus provides a critical analysis of the external DRR programming by the EU in the Asia Pacific to assess whether the social vulnerability of children has been addressed. Keywords: European Union, DRR, children, social vulnerability, Asia Pacific FMEA, Most Common Risk Assessment Method in Industry TEIMOORI, Hossein (1); BATHAEE, Reza (2) 1: NIS CERT, Tehran, Iran; 2: INDM Conference (Founder), Tehran, Iran Presenting author: TEIMOORI, Hossein [email protected] Risks and Risk assessment have long been a focus point of different industries. For instance Aerospace scientists have always been worried about functionality of shuttles, safety of the foods, healthiness of astronomer, etc. Specialists in “automotive industry” have also done their best to predict and tackle all types of quality and safety risks that cars and drivers may encounter. And the list of risk dealers continues endlessly.

To tackle risks, different methodologies have been invented

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for the elementary education system in Central Vietnam. The assessment tool in this study is developed through a combination of climate disaster resilience indexes and the 16 tasks of Hyogo Framework for Action designed for education. It looks at five dimensions namely physical, human resource, institutional, external relationship, and natural conditions with each dimension characterized by three parameters defining them more in details. In this paper, the method to develop a tool for measuring the level of disaster resilience at school level is discussed and the approach to applying it to the elementary education system of Central Vietnam is demonstrated. Data collected from this tool are used to map the position of schools individually and of the education system in the level of climate disaster resilience. By assessing the level of educational resilience, it provides school with an effective way to utilize their internal and external resource in responding to disaster, and policy-makers with a means to promoting DRR education at school level. Keywords: disaster risk reduction, disaster resilience, education sector, school Promote urban resilience through collaborative urban services management TOUBIN, Marie (1,2,3); ARNAUD, Jean-Paul (1); SERRE, Damien (2); DIAB, Youssef (2); LAGANIER, Richard (3) 1: Egis, France; 2: Université Paris-Est, EIVP, France; 3: Université Paris-Diderot, UMR PRODIG, France Presenting author: TOUBIN, Marie [email protected] Urban resilience is a trendy concept taking into account multi-scalar interactions within the urban system: short and long-term impacts, spatial dependencies and inequalities. The concept seems relevant to assess the performance and sustainability of cities of tomorrow, whatever changes and disturbances they might face. The issue now, is to enable local authorities and urban stakeholders grasping and applying the resilience approach. Our research highlights the need for collaboration and integration in managing a resilient urban system. The technical networks and urban services supporting urban development are an interesting case study to apply resilience concepts and demonstrate the effectiveness of integration and collaboration. Indeed, urban services are both a major issues in sustainable cities and in facing disturbances (natural hazards, climate change, industrial accident, …). And yet, the management of urban services lacks integration and communication in spite of the strong interactions existing between them. For local authorities, promoting an integrated management of urban services, in collaboration with urban planning and risk management is essential to ensure consistency and efficiency of urban policies. Our research aims at developing method and tools to help local authorities in identifying interdependencies between urban services, assessing their behavior in case of disturbances and, above all, involving urban services managers on resilience and sustainability issues. First, an auto-diagnosis realized with each manager identifies the dependencies of the service, then the workshop around crossed-information raises awareness of managers to their interdependencies. With the organizing authority, they are led to express their difficulties in managing these dependencies on both technical and organizational aspects. A second workshop is held to discuss technical and organizational measures that could solve those problems in

Hazard management in a debris flow affected area – Spreitgraben, Switzerland TOBLER, Daniel; KULL, Isabelle GEOTEST AG, Switzerland Presenting author: TOBLER, Daniel [email protected] Since 2009 every year several extremely erosive debris flows occurred in the Spreitgraben near Guttannen. It started with small and harmless flows. Within three years they became huge, destructive events with enormous hazard potential. During this period a total amount of 650‘000 m3 bedload has been transported into the main river. Strong erosion along the debris flow channel caused considerable deposition at the confluence of the channel and the Aare River. Until now, no constructive protection measure to stop the process evolution has been planned due to the intensity of the erosion and deposition.

Important infrastructures are affected more and more; the major gas pipeline be-tween Germany and Italy had to be relocated and two houses had to be abandoned. The main road between the two adjacent villages is endangered in different places or has been locally destroyed already. The only reasonable solution to face these natural hazard processes is land use planning, meaning to avoid any sort of human activity in the fast growing zone of deposition.

As a temporary measure an extensive and sophisticated early warning system has been installed. A profound knowledge of the ongoing processes is the base for a reliable hazard and risk management. By means of a debris flow model scenario based predictions for the future have been simulated. Hazardous areas have been defined. They build the base for the safety and monitoring concept. In a project handbook the role, task, responsibilities and cooperation with all affected infrastructure owners and public authorities is defined.

The presentation focuses on the hazard management in a highly endangered area with an enormous vulnerability. The devastating debris flows push the authorities to adapt yearly to new situations. Due to the high frequency of events the established system is already well approved – a unique case in Switzerland. Keywords: debris flow, hazard management, modelling, early warning system, prediction School-based disaster risk reduction approach in building resilience for Central Vietnam TONG, Thi My Thi; SHAW, Rajib Kyoto University, Japan Presenting author: TONG, Thi My Thi [email protected] The severe damages of natural disasters on schools and children have considerable implications for several international and national agendas, frameworks and programs which mainly focus on disaster risk reduction (DRR) education. In this regard, this study focuses on promotion of DRR education in terms of safer schools, enhancement of resilience capacity, and reduction of losses from disasters. In order to do that, a methodology was developed aiming to measure the level of disaster resilience at school level, which was also applied

that has been developed and used within the project. GIS calculation and visualization challenges are debated and we discuss responsibilities for further investigations. Finally, we report some lessons learnt. Keywords: landslide, consequence, economic valuation, GIS, risk analysis

A training program for disaster mitigation through urban planning TURKOGLU, Handan Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of Presenting author: TURKOGLU, Handan [email protected] Since the Marmara Earthquake (1999), the role and responsibilities of local governments in disaster management have increased. Within the current legal framework, the municipalities in emergency situations still seem to be more service oriented and supplementary, rather than related to direct management of emergency operations, but municipalities play a main role in disaster mitigation through land use planning and building code enforcement. Recently The Law of Urban Transformation under Disaster Risk No: 6306 provides a powerful tool for disaster mitigation for Municipalities which are located on risky areas. Istanbul is the best case in Turkey in terms of both institutional arrangements resources and implementation within a more planned approach. In 2006, Istanbul Provincial Administration started the Istanbul Seismic Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) with financing from the World Bank to strengthen local disaster response and emergency management capacity, to retrofit public facilities and to protect cultural heritage buildings from disasters. A community and institutional capacity building project is also developed within the framework ISMEP project. Among several trainings, Part B program is related mitigation through urban planning. In the content of Part B training programs applied Bagcılar and Pendik Municipalities about defining risks in regional and urban level, location choice for appropriate urban activities and appropriate building structures at the three target groups: decision makers, technical staff and community representatives. Due to these activities at the two pilot areas, training materials have been improved according to the feed-backs from the participants. The benchmarking of this training program might be given as the final session that all participants from each target group came together to share their perspectives, expectations from each other and to create a collective action to achieve disaster resilient community in their districts. Disaster risk and vulnerability in coastal plains of Bangladesh: observations on human responses and local resilience to the effects of cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh UDDIN, Mohammed Salim; HAQUE, C. Emdad University of Manitoba, Canada Presenting author: UDDIN, Mohammed Salim [email protected] Coastal plains of Bangladesh are extremely prone to natural disasters. The frequency, unpredictability and uncertainties associated with climatic events often leave people here vulnerable. Such vulnerabilities impact socio-economic and ecological aspects of coastal life. I focused on people’s

an integrated approach. The case study with the City of Paris demonstrates the relevance of the approach and outlines the future developments in improving urban resilience. A critical pedagogy of risk: empowering children with knowledge and skills for DRR TOWERS, Briony Clare RMIT University, Australia Presenting author: TOWERS, Briony Clare [email protected] In recent years, the concept of child-centred disaster risk reduction (CC-DRR) has gained significant traction across DRR research, policy, and programming. In essence, CC-DRR involves strengthening children’s knowledge and skills so that they understand the risk of disasters in their communities and are able to take a lead role in reducing those risks. Therefore, educating children about disaster risk and disaster risk reduction should be considered a fundamental element of any CC-DRR initiative. Despite this, however, discussions relating to questions of pedagogy or instructional strategy are notably absent from the contemporary CC-DRR discourse. This paper seeks to initiate discussion and debate in this area by proposing a critical pedagogy of risk. Drawing on the pioneering work of Paulo Freire, Henry Giroux and Joe Kincheloe, the paper presents a model of CC-DRR education that involves creating the conditions whereby a child can (a) discover for themselves that they are vulnerable to extreme hazard events, (b) discover for themselves that their vulnerability is both unacceptable and changeable, and (c) begin to pull together the necessary resources for taking action. The paper then presents evidence in support of this model from both recent Australian research on children’s knowledge of wildfire risk, and the broader CC-DRR literature. The paper concludes by discussing some of the broader philosophical and political dimensions that characterise critical pedagogies and their distinct congruity with current conceptualisations of disaster risk reduction. Keywords: risk, society and culture, children, disaster risk reduction, critical pedagogy, education Mapping landslide risk in the Göta river valley, Sweden – methods and experiences TREMBLAY, Marius; ANDERSSON-SKÖLD, Yvonne; BENGTSSON, Per-Evert; FALEMO, Stefan; ÖBERG, Mats Swedish Geotechnical Institute, Sweden Presenting author: FALEMO, Stefan [email protected] Landslide risk is expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased water flow. The Swedish Government has commissioned the Swedish Geotechnical Institute to make an inventory of slope stability, considering climate change, in the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden - the Göta river valley. One of the main outcomes of the inventory is a risk map displaying geographically distributed landslide probability combined with expected losses expressed as predicted socio-economic cost.

The three-year project is now finished, and this paper aims to provide an overview of the methodology for risk analysis

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[email protected] In recent years, the case for ecosystem approaches in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation is strongly argued because losses can be reduced and safer and resilient communities built by ensuring resource sustainability and enhancing ecosystem resilience. Recognizing the interdependencies of ecological, physical, economic, social and institutional actors and that community-level perceptions can shape adaptation actions, a study is conducted through a survey of 36 village councils in Infanta, Quezon, Philippines utilizing a questionnaire covering 5 dimensions, 25 parameters and 125 measures selected based on the local context of Infanta to gain an understanding of the level of resilience in mountain, riverine, urban, agricultural plain, estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Results show that overall resilience levels of ecosystems lie between 3.08 (medium resilience) and 3.26 (high resilience) on a scale of 1 to 5. The coastal ecosystem demonstrates the highest resilience while the mountain ecosystem shows the lowest resilience. Furthermore, spatial analysis of 36 villages in the ecological, physical, economic, social and institutional dimensions show that resilience levels vary from 2.57 (low resilience) to 3.51 (high resilience). Most of the villages show medium to high resilience with three villages demonstrating very high resilience in the physical dimension; seven villages in the institutional dimension; and 12 villages in the social dimension. Only three villages show very low resilience in physical, economic and institutional dimensions. On the whole, overall resilience levels in the 36 villages exhibit high levels in the social dimension and low levels in the economic dimension. By assessing the resilience of ecosystems as attempted in this study, a baseline is determined where entry points for adaptation actions that are responsive to prevailing ecosystem conditions can be identified, positive and negative factors addressed and gaps and opportunities acted upon to enhance the resilience of Infanta’s ecosystems. Keywords: Resilience analysis, ecosystem resilience, ecosystem-based adaptation, social-ecological systems Coping with floods in a riverbank-settlement in Jakarta, Indonesia. An interdisciplinary approach to human actor's heterogeneous risk-strategies VAN VOORST, Roanne (1); HANDGRAAF, Michel (2) 1: UvA, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; 2: Wageningen University, Netherlands, Kingdom of the Presenting author: VAN VOORST, Roanne [email protected] Due to global climate changes and environmental degradation, the amount and severity of natural hazard will strongly increase in future years. According to the International Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC 2007), more than two-thirds of the world's largest cities is currently vulnerable to rising sea levels, posing millions of people at risk of extreme flooding and storms. For that reason, there is a growing academic and practical interest in the various ways in which people around the world respond to and cope with such natural hazards. Global research shows that individuals and households show a wide range in their level of adaptive responses, from almost none at all to extensive (e.g. Grothmann 2006, Harries 2008, Machiavelli 2010). Comparable observations were reported from one of the most flood-prone areas of this world, Indonesia's capital Jakarta, where data for this

perception on disaster risk and vulnerability, and examined their preparedness to deal with some of the resulting consequences. I analyzed human responses to disaster related vulnerabilities and status of local resilience using the 2007 mega cyclone Sidr as a case study. Cyclone Sidr was an extreme climatic event with immense repercussions on humans and coastal plains in Bangladesh that took 4000 lives. A qualitative case study approach was used along with participatory tools. Research was conducted in two of the affected coastal districts where 162 households were randomly selected for interview in 2009. I found that livelihoods, location and pattern of settlements are important factors in making people vulnerable to a cyclone. The affected communities were able to cope with and recovered with the help of multiple actors. Better preparedness for cyclones and improved early warning systems during cyclone Sidr saved lives and reduced death toll than previous cyclones. However, despite considerable progress in cyclone preparedness much needs to be done to further reduce the vulnerability. Measures like disaster policies, construction of cyclone shelters and coastal embankments, training programs for stakeholders and coastal plantations can strengthen people’s adaptive capacity and local resilience to deal with disasters. Keywords: Disaster Risk, Vulnerability, Coastal Plains, Community Resilience, Cyclone Sidr Community early warning systems: back to basics UDU-GAMA, Natasha Marie (1); THOMALLA, Frank (2); CARNEGIE, Michelle (2) 1: Macquarie University, Australia; 2: Macquarie University, Australia Presenting author: UDU-GAMA, Natasha Marie [email protected] In recent years, there has been greater recognition for development of people-centred early warning systems (EWCIII 2006). There is a need to emphasize the importance of community ownership and participation in order to ensure EWS address community priorities, build on existing traditional knowledge and practice and are sustainable in the long-term. To date, EWS show great strides in a number of key areas such as communications technology, equipment and financial resources. Yet, despite focus upon community participation in EWS, few have genuinely managed to seamlessly incorporate community knowledge and skills on hazards with technology, sustainable financial and human resources. This paper will give evidence about critical elements of community-owned and driven, effective and sustainable EWS through insights from various cases within the Asia-Pacific region. It will review the discourse on community EWS and its evolution as disasters have increased in magnitude, frequency and severity globally. This paper will provide guiding principles for community EWS that address risks and community priorities. Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, early warning system, An ecosystem-based resilience analysis of Infanta, Quezon, Philippines UY, Noralene Menchavez; SHAW, Rajib Kyoto University, Japan Presenting author: UY, Noralene Menchavez

Keywords: Earthquake, community empowerment, awareness raising, disaster management, Tehran, participation The role of pandemic plans in ethical preparedness and resilience VIENS, A.M. Ruhr University, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: VIENS, A.M. [email protected] Pandemic preparedness planning, as an instance of general disaster planning activities, focuses on how particular institutions and officials will seek to manage serious viral outbreaks. One prominent form of planning in anticipation of the emergence of a pandemic threat are pandemic preparedness plans created by national governments. In addition to outlining the medical and legal guidelines/processes to be followed during a pandemic, a large number of plans also include ethical considerations to be considered in informing policy and action. This inclusion reveals a recognition that not only will ethical considerations be of central relevance to pandemic planning, but that inclusion of ethical guidance will contribute to a more effective response and promote greater resilience. In addition to national pandemic plans, supranational and international documents, such as the WHO’s Addressing Ethical Issues in Pandemic Influenza Planning and EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement Ethical Principles on Disaster Risk Reduction and People’s Resilience to Disaster also exist with the same objectives. Unfortunately, there is little or no evidence that these plans/documents contribute to ethical preparedness or resilience, nor even that public officials have or will make use of the ethical principles listed to guide their conduct or decision-making processes. It is argue that, at least in their current form, most pandemic plans cannot be said to be properly ethically action-guiding, nor should they be thought to provide some metric by which the level or quality of ethical preparedness or prospective resilience within a community can be assessed. The mere inclusion of ethical considerations within these plans or documents is not a sufficient indicator of ethical preparedness or resilience. A great deal more work – in terms of research, development and evaluation – must be done to better understand and integrate ethical guidance within pandemic planning specifically and risk and disaster management generally. Keywords: Ethics, Pandemics, Planning, Resilience Boosting agricultural production and stabilizing farmers' income through index insurance in Vietnam VINH, Dang The Vina Re Presenting author: VINH, Dang The [email protected] Agriculture is a key sector in Vietnam. It secures the livelihoods of more than half of the country's 86 million people. Rice is by far the most important crop. But frequent natural disasters such as drougths, floods and typhoons threaten rice production. When crops fail, rice farmers across Vietnam lose an essential source of income. As a consequence, they are often unable to repay their loans or make much needed investments for the next growing season. A new innovative insurance scheme helps to mitigate the impact of

study were collected (van Voorst forthcoming). However, up to now, risk-scholars have remained puzzled by the reasons behind the high heterogeneity in risk-responses used by flood-victims. Dominant vulnerability analyses offer unsatisfactory explanations for various responses to floods, and resultant, intervention programs aimed to help victims of floods are often inefficient. This research project will contribute to a better understanding of people’s responses to floods by combining and expanding current sociological and psychological theories on risk-coping. The Indonesian case study as presented in this paper is mainly based on ethnographic data obtained during one year of fieldwork in one of the poorest and severely flood-prone settlements in Jakarta. Analysis of psychological and socio-economic data shows that current social explanations focus too much on people’s material circumstances, while they mostly neglect psychological factors such as self-efficacy. However, the empirical findings suggest that psychological aspects are much better able to explain for heterogeneous risk-responses than are material indicators in currently dominant vulnerability frameworks. Keywords: floods, vulnerability, coping, responses, indicators, Relationship between community empowerment and citizens' interest in participation in natural disaster management: case study earthquake at Tehran districts' level VAZIRPOUR, Shabbou (1); REZAEI, Ali Akbar (2) 1: Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Science & Research Tehran Azad University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Science & Research Tehran Azad University Presenting author: VAZIRPOUR, Shabbou [email protected] Today, due to increasing urbanization and growing urban population, prevention and disaster risk reduction especially in earthquakes prone areas is one of the major challenges in urban management. Tehran, the same as many world cities, located on several active faults, with high population, lots of economic and administrative centers and vulnerable buildings and structures, is exposed to risks of occurrence of earthquake and sooner or later will be faced with such a challenge. In order for this risk to be reduced, community should be empowered. This research aims to review relationship between Tehran citizens' empowerment and their interest in increasing their participation in earthquake disaster management and tries to review relationship between information dissemination and awareness raising, training, Sensitization, fatalism and social trust as independent variables for citizens' empowerment, with Tehran citizens' interest in enhancing participation in disaster management and earthquake. Based on selection criteria and scoring, in three earthquakes- prone districts of Tehran, 390 citizens over 15 were selected randomly as respondent. In this research, with making use of questionnaire, data has been gathered. Analysis of field data demonstrates relationship between empowerment of citizens and their interest in increasing participation in disaster management and earthquakes. Based on findings and according to 93.3 percent of respondents' viewpoints, earthquake is the second threat for Tehran following air pollution, but few measures have been taken regarding prevention and preparedness against earthquakes. This will be discussed during this article.

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In the German federal state of Rheinland-Pfalz the state of the actions according to the EU Flood Directive has reached afar: The preliminary assessments, the flood hazard maps and the risk maps are finished for the whole state. In the beginning of 2011 the flood risk management plan for the catchment area of the complete river system of the Nahe (4.000 km²) has been started. It follows the German LAWA-directive “Recommendations for the Establishment of FRMP” with its FRM cycle for diverse areas of actions. Ap-propriate objectives and structural as well as non structural measures have to be proposed. The pilot character of the Nahe project is to visit the stakeholders and to work out the objectives and measures together with them in a series of workshops. Four workshops have taken place concerning the areas of actions: “emergency planning”, “providing information”, “natural water storage”, and “landscaping - pre-cautionary land use”. The workshops have identified a wealth of good ideas among the communities and have promoted stakeholder “buy in” to the process. This is being achieved much earlier and in a much more constructive manner than would have been anticipated following a more traditional approach in-volving the circulation of draft proposals to the public for information and comment. Future epidemics of malaria: the potential of climate change induced malaria and its potential mitigation in Sri Lanka WEERESINGHE, Shayani Independent researcher, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of Presenting author: WEERESINGHE, Shayani [email protected] The paper examines whether climate change will produce malaria epidemics, or a general increase of global incidence of malaria, in the future using Sri Lanka as a case study. The first objective was to assess the impact of climate change on the key factors of ecological transmission. The second objective was to determine whether these impacts in turn will fulfill the components of endemic malaria: (i) suitable Anopheles (mosquito) vectors in sufficient numbers to maintain transmission; (ii) suitable climate for the development of the parasite within the mosquito; (iii) infected individuals with gametocytes in their blood as a source of infection for vectors.

Critically transmission is most intense if these elements co-exist at optimal levels. Apart from climatic factors, the ecology of the malaria vector, the biology of the malaria parasite and host immunity was addressed.

The third objective was to assess the social and economic management of malaria to predict potential mitigation to increased global incidence. The influences of age, prosperity, costs of personal and public expenditure in, awareness and social attitudes were reviewed. Increased air travel in the future was also examined, given its role in the transport of sources of infection, thereby undermining the global mitigation of malaria.

The impacts of climate change in relation to ecological transmission, i.e. temperature, precipitation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, are evident in

poor harvests. It defines payouts according to an independent area-yield index that draws on data from Vietnam's Bureau of Statistics. The insurance product disburses funds if, after a natural catastrophe or disease, the rice yield in a certain geographic area falls below the expected output of an average yield. Keywords: risk transfer, DRR, insurance “Embedded health systems analysis”: A framework for effective disaster mitigation & response WATSON, Samantha; RUDGE, James; COKER, Richard London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Thailand, Kingdom of Presenting author: WATSON, Samantha [email protected] Over the past two decades, high profile natural-hazard events, together with increasing recognition of pandemic risk, have intensified interest in disaster mitigation and response planning. This has been accompanied by a widespread acknowledgment of the global scale, dimensions, and interconnections of disaster risk and vulnerability. An attendant, and welcome, policy trend has been to accord health systems a central role in disaster planning at all levels. There remains, however, an unmet need for integrated analysis linking likely disaster scenarios to health systems’ ability to intervene. The challenge, as various international bodies increasingly emphasise, lies in translating the uncoordinated ad hoc project/programme approach that persists into strategic action at the international, regional, national, and local levels. The recently developed “health system’s surge capacity” concept is a promising development, but it’s potential to provide a robust empirical basis for healthcare delivery strengthening in phased disaster scenarios remains underdeveloped. Existing disciplinary schisms must be bridged for this potential to be exploited. This entails uniting expertise from the physical, life, and social sciences to develop a new knowledge interface for integrated research into: i) disaster risk assessment and scenario development; ii) vulnerability modelling; and iii) health system's surge capacity / capability. These three research streams have, to date, developed largely in isolation of one another. Here we present a conceptual and analytical framework which explicitly locates the health system in the environmental, structural, institutional, and relational milieu in which it operates. This represents a major conceptual break from orthodox health systems analyses, characterized by static analytical frameworks, isolated from the complex dynamics and environmental and social locations that are key components of actual health systems. We recommend adoption of this framework as a means to develop a robust evidence base on which the nascent policy shift towards an integrated, ex-ante planning approach can proceed. Keywords: "Disaster mitigation and response"; "health systems strengthening"; "health systems surge capacity"; "natural hazards"; "conceptual framework" Flood risk management – creating efficiency by stakeholder involvement WEBLER, Heinrich Stadtwerke Mainz AG, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: WEBLER, Heinrich [email protected]

Security research from an end user perspective WERNER, Heiko German Federal Agency for Technical Relief, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: WERNER, Heiko [email protected] The presentation will describe the end users view of THW on Security Research. The governmental objectives for Security Research are to improve the use of security research by security authorities and to improve networking between governmental authorities and research institutes.

Arguments for a THW involvement in Security Research are the promotion of research as the clearly articulated will of the Federal Government (coalition agreement) and the EU (7th & 8th Research Framework Program). The Involvement of the THW as an end user influences research results. Also the participation in Security Research will support our work through the transfer of know-how to our organization, the funding of facilities, equipment and exercises and will promote our external image as a modern emergency service.

Future Security Research topics for THW are the protection of critical infrastructure, climate change, operating in an NBC environment, localization and rescue in mud and water, sensor systems used in debris and analysis of debris, securing buildings, reconnaissance, control / management of relief operations, prototyping, treatment and transport of drinking water, psychosocial emergency care and environmental protection. Lessons from various microinsurance schemes and key success factors WILHELM, Mario Swiss Reinsurance Ltd Presenting author: WILHELM, Mario [email protected] Low-income communities are often the ones most vulnerable to disaster risks. Financial tools, such as insurance, can contribute to reduce vulnerability by transferring risks to the private sector. Yet, access to insurance is often limited because traditional risk transfer solutions do not adequately meet the need and demand of low-income communities. Moreover, the capacity to pay for traditional insurance products is limited. In the context of financial inclusion, microinsurance is considered a viable solution to respond to these challenges. Based on Swiss Re's experience with agricultural and disaster risk solutions, the presentation will not only discuss the challenges but also the key success factors in microinsurance. Flood risk management with limited data – case study Han River, China WILLI, Christian (1); ELSENER METZ, Juerg (1); MEYER, Walter (2) 1: Ernst Basler + Partner, Switzerland; 2: Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Beijing Presenting author: WILLI, Christian [email protected] Authorities responsible for flood control and protection

Sri Lanka. Thereby it was found climate change will extend regions of endemic malaria by impacting regions of malaria: (i) imited by low temperatures; (ii) of stable transmission; (iii) radicated but vector continues to be present.

It was found a combination of techniques of, prevention such as treated bed nets, environmental management and combination therapies of anti-malarial drugs is effective. Finally the deviation of control policies is shown to defeat the eradication of malaria. Keywords: Climate change, Health, Disease, Resilience, Mitigation GRIP-CERAM Shanghai - a new model of capacity building WEN, Jiahong (1,2); VILLACIS, Carlos (3); YAN, Jianping (3); CHEN, Lei (1,2); YAN, Lijun (1,2); HUA, Zhenyang (1,2); YIN, Zhane (1,2); GRASSO, Veronica (3) 1: Shanghai Normal University, China, People's Republic of; 2: GRIP-CERAM Shanghai, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234; 3: GRIP/BCPR/UNDP, 11-13 Chemin des Anémones, 1219 Châtelaine, Geneva, Switzerland Presenting author: WEN, Jiahong [email protected] Since the establishment of the GRIP-backed Center of Excellence for Risk Assessment and Management (GRIP-CERAM Shanghai) that is jointly sponsored by GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) of UNDP and Shanghai Normal University in October, 2011, the center has established close cooperative relations with UNDP China, national and Shanghai local governments as well as academic institutions. The cooperative mechanism has been formed, based on the long-term cooperation in disaster risk assessment and management between the three sectors: (i) International organizations, (ii) China’s academic institutions and (iii) Government departments, which aims to cope with the challenge brought by natural and technological disasters.

The primary mission of the GRIP-CERAM Shanghai includes: (i) to solve the problem of academic research divorced from government’s and social needs; (ii) to become the open platform for domestic and international cooperation in disaster risk fields; (iii) to practically enhance the South-South cooperation in disaster risk assessment and management; (iv) to undertake multi-discipline researches on key issues in disaster risk fields.

The ongoing work of GRIP-CERAM Shanghai focuses on: (i) Risk-prevention-based safe city and resilience building; (ii) Community-based disaster risk management; (iii) Coastal area disaster risk assessment; (iv) Tourism destination disaster risk assessment and emergency management; (v) National Disaster Observatory and Urban Disaster Observatory(NDO/UDO).

GRIP-CERAM Shanghai aims to become an irreplaceable force pushing China’s comprehensive disaster risk assessment, prevention, management, decision-making and technology forward, and also a well-known institution focusing on consultation, technical development, popular science as well as information sharing and training in risk analysis and decision-making fields in the world. Keywords: Capacity building, GRIP, CERAM, Shanghai, DRR

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A particular challenge pose droughts. The combination of direct impacts, indirect linkages and multiplier effects implies that the recording and tracking of droughts are rather elusive. In scope of a master of science thesis at Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research a new framework has been developed which applies a standardized methodology to characterize drought events. This methodology is most likely consistent with all the natural hazards recorded in the Munich Re NatCatSERVICE-database. With this approach and the use of an effective drought vulnerability index - a standardized index that can be utilized to assess drought severity worldwide - an improved reference data set was created for the purpose of a more precise determination of drought durations, scales and economic impacts. Keywords: Disaster, loss, drought, vulnerability, definition Interregional economic impact analysis of the Wenchuan earthquake, China WU, Jidong (1,2); LI, Ning (1,2) 1: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China; 2: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, China Presenting author: WU, Jidong [email protected] Loss and damage induced by catastrophic earthquakes have significant impacts not only on the disaster-affected area’s economy but also on other regions outside the disaster area, which is adverse to regional sustainable development. The ripple effects, originate from imbalance between supply and demand in the regional economic system, can spread far beyond the region, and could have considerable impacts on other regions. An improved input-output model, incorporating interregional commodity flows and regional input-output relationships, was applied to evaluate the indirect losses in and outside the disaster areas caused by the Wenchuan earthquake, occurred in 2008. The magnitude and the extent of the indirect impacts in different spatial scale from this quake were analyzed; the impact mechanisms and economic vulnerability of the indirect loss in different provinces were also identified. The results show that, for worst-hit region, the trend of the Gross Regional Product had an obvious “V” type recovery trajectory, but it has a blooming trend in other regions surrounding the disaster-hit areas just after this quake, and for the whole country of China, the effects of this earthquake seems not very clear. These analytical results may be used to propose risk management strategies in the recovery and reconstruction periods in the following years. Keywords: Natural disasters; Economic impacts; Wenchuan earthquake; Input-out model Risk communication and evacuation decision making: the case of residents in debris flow vulnerable area in Taiwan WU, Jie-Ying Ming-Chuan University, Taiwan, Republic of China Presenting author: WU, Jie-Ying [email protected] The climate change will increase the possibility of the extreme rainfall, which will lead the debris flow vulnerable village exposed to very high risk. In term of governmental

urgently need an overview on the expected flood risks on their territory. They seek for cost-effective measures to reduce the risks significantly. Generally, risk assessment requires detailed data, often only partially available. A pragmatic approach to risk assessment therefore is an adequate alternative. In an interactive process – during consultations and workshops performed among relevant stakeholders, decision makers and locals – estimates and results for crucial issues are developed. This process is substantially supported by the online IT-tool RiskPlan, which is widely used in Switzerland and abroad. Within a Sino-Swiss partnership including the Ministry of Water Resources China, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) and Ernst Basler and Partner (EBP), the RiskPlan approach is tested in the Han River catchment, Hubei Province, China. Currently only rough data to hazard and damage potential are available. The risk situation has been analysed in a consultation in Wuhan, using the knowledge and experience of flood expert partners of the Changjiang Water Resources Commission (CWRC). RiskPlan is promoting the risk dialogue among the experts. Based on the local knowledge and available data, four scenarios, their frequency and expected damages have been estimated applying a participative process. The total yearly expected damage for the damage indicators fatality, material damage and agriculture damage have been assessed, monetised and aggregated, expressed in Chinese Yuan (CNY). The generated flood risks in the Han River catchment contributes to the integrated flood risk management. The need for action is identified, a priority setting is enabled. Additionally, RiskPlan allows the economic assessment of flood protection measures regarding cost-benefits. As the impact of extreme weather events grows in China, floods and droughts being among the major factors, integrated flood risk management becomes an urgent necessity. Keywords: flooding, flood risk management, risk assessment, flood protection, China The need of disaster loss data - assessment of droughts in global databases WIRTZ, Angelika; HENSELI, Marius Munich Reinsurance Company, Germany, Federal Republic of Presenting author: WIRTZ, Angelika [email protected] Loss data relating to current and historical natural catastrophes are needed by researchers, governments, UN and EU organizations and NGOs, and the financial sectors, and can be used for a variety of analyses and purposes. The methods employed for acquisition of the data and for assessing the damage must be consistent over the entire period and transparent for the data users. It is important that global and national database operators must follow internationally recognized standards. The Integrated Research on Disaster Risks Working Group “ disaster loss data and impact assessment” has identified the need for (1) identification of the requirement of loss data users; (2) comparable, transparent and accessible disaster loss data to support research and policy; (3) identification of existing loss database projects; (4) definition of "loss" and creation of a methodology for assessing the loss. The standards, especially the methodology for assessing the loss, should apply to every natural hazard in global or national databases.

within approximately 50 km. The calculated losses in each district measure the catastrophic event civil protection has to prepare for. The probability that this worst case will happen is not calculated rigorously. For cities for which most experts agree that future large earthquakes are likely, this advocated worst case approach should be standard. Keywords: seismic risk, human losses, scenario calculations Identifying landslides using binary logistic regression and landslide detection index techniques YANG, Wentao; WANG, Ming; SHI, Peijun Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: YANG, Wentao [email protected] Rapid urbanization and limited suitable land around the world has been pushing more population under the risk of various geo-hazards. Among those geo-hazards in mountainous regions, landslide is one of the most important hazards that can be triggered by earthquake, heavy rainfall and human activities. Landslide mapping plays an essential role in landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk studies by providing landslide inventory. Although it is very time- and labor-consuming, traditional manual interpretation of high resolution aerial images is a commonly used method. To promote the efficiency of landslide mapping, in this paper a landslide index and regression method are used to automatically detect landslides occurred during the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in Pingwu, Sichuan Province, by using two SPOT5 images pre and post the event. These images are first pan sharpened, ortho-rectified, co-registered and relatively corrected for atmospheric influence. Then, layers of NDVI difference, image spectral angle and principal components are obtained as candidate useful landslide identification layers. To pick out useful layers for landslide identification and establish the binary logistic regression model, landslides inventory in a training area is used to calculate the correlations between landslide and the above candidate layers. Highly correlated ones are selected and used to establish logistic model to detect landslides. Then, landslide detection index is developed in the same region to map landslides. To compare the efficiency of these two techniques, results from both methods are verified using existing landslide inventory. Final results indicate that regression models and landslide detection index both can be dependently used to map landslides using images pre and post earthquake. Keywords: Geo-hazards,Landslide identification,Binary logistic regression,Landslide detection index A modern view to disaster management, concentrating on people with dynamic settlements (nomads) as a sustainable development standard YAVAR, Bijan Millennium Enlightened Planners Engineering Company (MEPCO) Managing Director, International University of Chabahar (IUC) Faculty Member Presenting author: YAVAR, Bijan [email protected] Planning and management for people with dynamic settlements which tend to move often is of high importance and time, personal and capital consuming. Nomads’ main property and income are their cattles. Although earthquakes may effect them lesser because of their lighter housings

perceptive, the entire debris flow vulnerable areas having the same warning system in Taiwan. However, the results of the evacuation performance are very different. The performance of the warning system heavily depends on the risk communication among the stakeholders (including residents, local governments and experts—etc.) in the system as well as the characteristics of them. Therefore, it is important to understand the detail operation of risk communication among stakeholders, what are the key factors influencing residents’ hazard preparedness works and evacuation decision making. This study conducted 385 questionnaires to the residents living in the debris flow vulnerable in the Liouguei district, Kaohsiung, Taiwan. This study finds that the residents have little knowledge on the hazard preparedness works; even though the community had severe losses two years ago and the governments have implemented several drills. Environmental cue and other behavior responses are the major factors influencing evacuation decision making. The disaster warning source from the public sector has high degree of trustworthy. 78.5% of residents will reconfirm the warning message through other sources. The past disaster experience is also the key factor influencing evacuation decision making. The households having directly past disaster losses are more familiar with the debris flow related information and consider the neighborhood leader is the key person during the evacuation period. Keywords: debris flow, risk communication, disaster warning, evacuation, residents’ risk perception Estimating casualties in future earthquakes for preparedness: probabilistically or deterministically? WYSS, Max WAPMERR, Switzerland Presenting author: WYSS, Max [email protected] There are many large cities located in earthquake prone areas for which an estimate of the extent of future disasters is necessary for mitigation and preparedness. The probabilistic method works as follows. One estimates the seismic hazard by Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA, given in meters/seconds2) expected to be an upper bound not to be exceeded by a certain percentage in a period of specified length at the location in question. Next, one calculates the probability of casualties, if the expected upper bound PGA should occur. In the deterministic approach, one assumes a worst case scenario by estimating the maximum credible PGA resulting in the city at risk from the maximum credible earthquake on a nearby fault. Comparing the results of the probabilistic approach with the observed casualties, we have found that it underestimated the fatalities in the most deadly recent earthquakes by two to three orders of magnitude, rendering the probabilistic method useless. Using the deterministic approach to calculate casualties in real time for earthquakes worldwide and in scenarios for future disastrous earthquakes, we have found that our estimates are usually correct within factors of two to ten. We advocate that cost effective deterministic estimates of future human losses in large cities should be carried out as follows. Construct a city model in which population and building stock characteristics are estimated separately for each administrative district (alternatively neighborhoods with uniform building stock). Estimate the position and magnitude of the maximum credible earthquake on faults

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Since extra travel time induces time penalty for logistic industry, how to achieve travel time probability distribution for vehicle routes and evaluate time penalty risk using disaster propagation model with probability of precipitation is discussed as well. Keywords: rainfall impact; freeway; traffic flow; disaster propagation model; time penalty Social cost benefit analysis: a way to optimize net economic benefits YEE, Chow Fah (1,2); TAN, Eu Chye (3) 1: Green Economics Institute, UK,; 2: Universiti Teknologi MARA,Malaysia,; 3: University Malaya, Malaysia Presenting author: YEE, Chow Fah [email protected] During recent global financial crises, several governments had to bail out failed banking institutions. This is seen by many as “socializing” private losses, as during good times the banks enjoyed the profits but during bad times everybody shares the losses. Thus, could a more equitable method of allocating resources be used instead? Social Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) may be the answer. In SCBA, the impact of projects on all individuals in the society is included and social prices rather than market prices are used. Here, the authors have unprecedentedly used SCBA to evaluate, a sample of private sector firms in Malaysia. The aim is to investigate the claims made in support of financial liberalization; that is, if indeed financial liberalization results in more optimal allocation of a country’s resources. The methodology is to conduct an ex-post evaluation of loans allocated by the banking sector; to see on hindsight, if the loans were allocated to firms that used them optimally; that is, give rise to net economic benefits (or social profits). Contrary to liberalization theory, results indicated that these firms did not used resources more optimally after liberalization had occurred. Only 63% of post liberalization cases contributed positive net economic benefits compared to 92 % for pre liberalization case. The United Nations (2008) had called for a reduction in unnecessary consumption of earth’s resources. SCBA may play a significant role, as distributional weights used for analysis can be set, such that they reflect the socioeconomic objectives of a society. The pursuit of future growth as an objective may involve sacrifice of another, such as current consumption. If a country unwaveringly chooses allocation of resources that achieve the most, in terms of the desired objectives, then perhaps whatever resources we have left will be used in a sustainable and optimal manner. Keywords: Social Cost Benefit Analysis, Resource allocation, Financial Liberalization, Project Evaluation, Net Economic Benefits

Vulnerability assessment of cotton to hail in China based on historical records, field investigation and ground experiments YUE, YaoJie (1,2); ZHAO, Jintao (3); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2,4); YIN, Yuanyuan (1,2); YE, Xinyue (5); HUANG, Xiaoyun (1,2) 1: School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2: Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 3: Langfang Normal College, Langfang, Hebei 065000, China; 4: State key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 5: School of Earth, Environment and Society, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, Ohio 43403( USA)

which is almost a kind of tent in comparison with other people residing in complexes unmovable and not safe enough in cities, but in diverse the nomads are often seriously threatened by flash floods, land slides and similar disasters. Nomads are more in danger of being hit by a disaster because of their traditional, dynamic and special way of life. They face verity of disasters with higher frequencies often. Iran has lots of different kinds of nomads living with their properties which produce large amount of meat and dairy products for the country to serve the people's needs. Planning to empower them in facing disasters is not only important but also a must. In this paper at first we will explain where the nomads live in Iran and what kind of disasters they face in their kind of living. Next coming up will be the characteristics of nomads and their kind of living and the limitations to help them overcome the disasters meaning a transition from a traditional way of thinking towards a modern acting situation by conservation of the traditional rational origins. Then we will explain through which activities, processes and methods we can empower the nomads to face disasters based on the experiences obtained which can play an important role in environment sustainability. As a conclusion, totally, best ways of empowering nomads in facing disasters will be mentioned technically which can be used in similar parts of the world as a standard to decrease vulnerabilities and lead to a sustainable development context. Keywords: Disaster Management, Nomads, Sustainable Development, Transition, Dynamic settlements Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway network YE, Jiayuan (1); YANG, Saini (1); ZHANG, Xuechi (2); HE, Shuai (1) 1: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of; 2: College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: YE, Jiayuan [email protected] Effects can be transferred through linkages among system components when they are not independent, especially in a network system. Failures caused by events at certain components can create cascading failures in a network system like traffic network. In this study, a disaster propagation model is introduced to study cascading effects in a regional traffic network as a new method to study heavy rainfall impact on traffic flow other than microscopic traffic simulation which demands massive calculation time. In this model, freeway segment is treated as a node of the traffic network system, travel time on each segment is a character of the node, and accessibility of one segment to another is the arc between nodes. The rainfall impact on travel time of upper stream segment can be transferred to downstream segment. Through dynamic model of disaster propagation in freeway traffic network with recovery process and transmission time delays considered, multi-scale spatial and temporal rainfall impact on freeway traffic flow and impact transfer through traffic network are studied. Real world data is used in the case study and statistical test is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the disaster propagation model. Relationships between the physical structure of the traffic system and the parameters of the disaster propagation model specified are analyzed.

deterioration and traffic functionality. But the experience shows that under real conditions this presumption would not be true, while serviceability and full disruption of traffic flow depends on road shape of destruction. As in the case of a medium physical deterioration, provided that deterioration of transversal road elements, the path would become fully blocked. Therefore, consideration of deterioration area results in false interpretation of road functional performance.

This research demonstrates a method of measuring independent quantity of roadways functional performance in the aftermath of an earthquake, this way, the observed amount of deterioration based on path dividing and consideration of sections attachment leads to a more exact feedback of roadways function. The clear formulation of road damage would be done by computing a width of sections that remains undamaged in route and still have transfer ability for the traffic flow. Hence it could be determined the traffic flow conduction and sections continuity which is a function of road capacity. Keywords: Road networks, Earthquake, Performance, Function Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: a governance point of view: case study Europe / Germany ZENTEL, Karl-Otto DKKV - German National Platform for DRR Presenting author: ZENTEL, Karl-Otto [email protected] In the framework of the climate change negotiations adaptation to climate change is accepted as being equally important as mitigation efforts. The important role of disaster risk reduction especially with regard to adaptation to extreme events is internationally well recognized. But, has the mainstreaming process already started? Where can we see that integration really takes place? To answer these questions Working Group I of the European Forum for Disaster Risk Reduction (EFDRR) circulated a questionnaire to National Platforms and HFA Focal Points in Europe asking about the integration on the ground. 23 countries responded. The result of this exercise will be presented and supplemented with a more detailed country case study on Germany (Adaptation Action Plan of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change) to showcase different governance levels (federal, federal states but also international level) to be addressed. Continuing operations in a modern and efficient manner ZEPPOS, John COSMOTE Mobile Telecommunications S.A., Greece; NATO Presenting author: ZEPPOS, John [email protected] Business continuity management has always been perceived by some organizations as well as individuals as a strictly technical discipline that mostly focuses on the so called “disaster recovery” process. Nowadays, things and needs are changing momentarily around us and the need to have an embedded protecting framework around an organization is more critical than ever. It doesn’t really matter if your critical products and services are interrupted because of a fire, an earthquake a tsunami, a terrorist attack, the only thing that really matters in today’s business world is the ability of an

Presenting author: YUE, YaoJie [email protected] China is the largest cotton production country in the world, while hail disasters frequently afflict its cotton planting and often cause great yield losses. This article constructs an integrated methodology for cotton vulnerability assessment by incorporating the Historical Yield Loss Records, conducting Field Investigation and Ground Experiments (HiReFiGe). Firstly, a long series of historical hail cases database from 1950 to 2009 was built up at county level for the assessment of hail hazard intensity. Secondly, a set of indices system for cotton loss measurement was put forward through field investigation, which was carried out in June 2010, after a heavy hail disaster. Thirdly, a series of ground experiments were conducted based on artificially-controlled hail disasters, by which the cotton yield loss at different growing stages and different intensity of hail hazard were quantitatively worked out. Finally, by taking hail intensity and the bolls loss as key indices, this research got four vulnerability curves of cotton at different growth stages of seedling, bud, boll, and boll opening stages respectively.

Results indicate that the vulnerability of cotton to hail varies at different growing stages, which are highest in stage of seedling and the bell, followed by the bud stage and the boll opening stage. Therefore, the seedling and boll stages are the key period for cotton hail disaster mitigation and risk governance. At national scale, with the increase of loss rates, the occurrence probability reduces gradually. The highest probability areas are the eastern part of Shanxi, Aksu of Xinjiang Autonomous region, indicating that these regions are highest hail disaster risk area for cotton, where should be paid more attention to cotton hail hazard prevention. This research presents an integrated approach to evaluate the cotton vulnerability to hail, which can be a scientific reference for cotton insurers and the local governmental decision-makers. Keywords: Vulnerability, HiReFiGe Methodology, Growing Stages, Hail Hazard Intensity, Cotton Loss Measuring performance functionality of roads after earthquake ZAMANIFAR, Milad (1); GIVEHCHI, Saeed (2); POORYARI, Maghsood (3) 1: M.Sc of transportation planning , Islamic Azad University -South Tehran branch, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Assistant professor, Faculty of environment, University of Tehran, Iran; 3: Member of Scientific board, Logistic & Disaster Management Dept, Road & Building & Urban Development Research Center Ministry of Road & Urban Development Presenting author: ZAMANIFAR, Milad [email protected] Earthquake is amongst natural hazards which lead to distraction in the function of traffic lifelines. Road networks are exposed to high vulnerability due to geographical dispersion, extensive functions and structural reliability to geophysics.

There have been drawn some uncertain relationships based on limited studies made on the area of road functionality after earthquake. These researches are usually defined based as a function of physical deterioration of road with the main assumption of indirect relationship between quantity of

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region in the Yangtze River Delta is higher than the southern hilly region; (ii) the risk of coastal cities is much higher than the risk of inland cities, and (iii) the high risk regions almost distribute in the cities which are near the sea and in lowland area. Risk maps can clearly reflect the spatial regularity of flood disaster and play an important role in the regional risk prevention. Keywords: Yangtze River Delta, flood disaster, risk map, intelligent classification, constraint layer, regional regularity

Chronicling and mapping the physical and social components of the 2009 flood disaster and the disaster risk reduction initiatives of urban poor communities in Metro Manila, Philippines ZOLETA-NANTES, Doracie Baldovino (1); MARTINEZ, Simeona (2); DE VERA, Rocelyn (3); CAPARAS, Paulo (4); GERONIA, Mart Cyrel (5); ILAGAN, Marie Joyce (6); TINGIN, Neil Eneri (7) 1: Crawford School of Public Policy, RMAP, College of Asia and the Pacific-The Australian National University, Australia; 2: Geography Department, University of the Philippines, Quezon City; 3: Geography Department, University of the Philippines, Quezon City; 4: Geography Department, University of the Philippines, Quezon City; 5: Geography Department, University of the Philippines, Quezon City; 6: Geography Department, University of the Philippines, Quezon City; 7: Geography Department, University of the Philippines, Quezon City Presenting author: ZOLETA-NANTES, Doracie Baldovino [email protected] Strengthening resilience to flood risks among urban poor communities can benefit from community mapping of flood risks, social vulnerabilities and grassroots-initiated disaster reduction initiatives. With research funding from Christian Aid and the Manila Observatory, researchers from the University of the Philippines’ Department of Geography had engaged in chronicling the physical-geographical-economic and social causes of flooding in five urban poor settlements and mapped the land use changes on river banks (20 m easement) and the constriction and disappearance of creeks and waterways in Metro Manila, Philippines. The maps of flood depths that were experienced by residents of urban settlements on the river banks illustrated the extent of devastation of the floods that greatly paralyzed population movements and economic activities in the metropolis and adjacent provinces in Luzon. The unplanned conversions of river banks into concrete spaces due to the rapid urbanization of Metro Manila and several towns in adjoining Rizal and Laguna Provinces were directed related to the widespread floods that were brought about by tropical storm Ketsana (Typhoon Ondoy – Philippine local name) in 2009. In-depth interviews among local government officials and men and women in affected urban communities were held to relate their flood experiences, evacuation strategies and disaster risk reduction initiatives from 2009 onwards. The resulting data bases were incorporated into the risk assessment initiatives of the affected urban poor communities to reduce their vulnerabilities to floods. The data bases were shared with the members of the affected communities to provide them with information that they can use to increase their

organization or a community to withstand any unforeseen incident that may occur at any given time and would certainly not respect borders, time and calendar events and prove it’s resilience to it’s customers and all other critical publics. That said, disaster recovery is yesterdays’ news, whilst resilience is the new trend. In order to make things a bit clearer, let us all think for a while about “disaster recovery”… It quite easily get us to the conclusion that this specific approach has an embedded idea of interruption even before it becomes reality, because Disaster Recovery means that we will “recover after a disaster”. That – of course – is not bad at all, exactly the opposite but again, there is a hugely increasing demand for “resilience” that insists that we should plan for no interruption if possible. There is a saying perfect to describe this one that reads: Aim for the stars, if you miss you'll still hit the sky. During this presentation you’ll be introduced to the most modern approach for doing business continuity, making everyone’s work much more efficient and much easier to get board buy-in as well as always visible support from them, delivered to you by the highly commended business continuity manager of the year 2011. Keywords: Continuity, Resilience, Manager, Recovery, Risk, BCM, ERM, framework, vulnerability, incident, crisis Mapping the flood disaster risk of metropolitan region in the Yangtze River Delta of China ZHOU, Yin (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2,3); XU, Wei (3,4); ZHOU, Yao (1,2) 1: School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2: Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 3: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 4: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China Presenting author: ZHOU, Yin [email protected] The Yangtze River Delta is the most developed region in China, contributing to 17.6% of China’s overall GDP in 2010. In the past thirty years, there were 119 floods in record which seriously threaten the regional economic development. Maps are efficient tools for regional disasters risk management, because they can deliver the information of spatial pattern of natural disasters to the public visually. Thus, the fast and intelligent disaster mapping has become the research hotspot. One of the key elements in mapping natural disasters is the classification method of risk evaluation results. The consequences of intelligent data classification are potentially significant to meeting the requirements. Based on the flood risk evaluation results using the model (Risk=Hazard×Exposure×Vulnerability), the constraint layer method is used to realize intelligent data classification. The terrain, land use, and the distance from the sea are taken as constraint layers, because these are the main factors which affect the regional regularities of the flood disaster risk. Proper classification method of the risk evaluation results could be chosen through the regional regularity of these constraint layers. The study shows that: the constraint layer method could realize the intelligent data classifications; and the regional regularities of the flood disaster risk map are decided by the coupling degree of the risk evaluation result and constraint layers. The case study result shows that (i) overall risk of northern plain

resilience to flood disasters. Inundation events are projected to recur more frequently because of the changing patterns and intensification of extreme weather events in the Philippines due to global atmospheric warming. Keywords: resilience to floods, community mapping, social vulnerabilities, risk assessment, urban poor, Metro Manila Philippines

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on this issue. The main environmental activities includes: i) classification of garbage by type, ii) composting, iii) using natural energy such as rainwater tank and solar panel, ix) eco-friendly housing design, and x) workshops on the environment which were conducted by local NGO. This case study aims to show the impacts of the thematic resettlement as eco-village through field survey conducted between 2006 and 2010. Questionnaires and interview surveys were conducted at 55 households. Observation survey involved understanding the changing of the community structure and physical life condition in the resettlement area. Through this research, two major findings were found. Firstly, out of the five activities carried out in the eco-village concept, only compost activity remained. Since the people did relocate to the new area due to interest in eco-activities but were resettled due to the tsunami, it would have been more appropriate if the housing were designed based on the local needs and requirements. Second major finding concerns the possibility of eco-village building in post-disaster. If the focus is on ‘community recovery’, an eco-village concept may be effective in achieving sustainable resettlement. Environmental activities created a common purpose, providing people the opportunity to communicate with each other, in turn, enhancing bonding within the community. To achieve sustainable resettlement, decision-makers should not only focus on the physical policy such as housing and infrastructure construction approaches and distribution of benefits, but also consider the social impacts such as human relationships internal/external community. Keywords: relocation, resettlement, tsunami, Sri Lanka, eco-village Impact of arsenic mitigation program on socioeconomic aspects of the beneficiaries AFRAD, Md. Safiul Islam; HOQUE, Md. Enamul Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Bangladesh, People's Republic of Presenting author: AFRAD, Md. Safiul Islam [email protected] The study delved into the socioeconomic impact of arsenic mitigation programs in Bangladesh. Two locations considering the most devastating occurrence of arsenic contamination in ground water were selected as the locale. All the arsenic patients of selected Arsenic Mitigation Programs were considered as the target population of the present study. A size of 150 patients was selected as sample of following proportionate simple random sampling technique from the total target population of 754. To validate the findings obtained from of patient respondents, another 50 neighbor non-patient respondents sample were also selected from both the locations proportionately. Quantitative and qualitative data were accumulated for the present study. Findings revealed that before participation in the arsenic mitigation programs, a lion part of the patient respondents (89%) formed a majority under medium to high socioeconomic aspects categories which was 92 percent in case of the non-patient respondents. Almost all of the patient respondents (99%) were under medium to high socioeconomic aspects categories but it was outstanding that the entire non-patient respondents (100%) belonged to same categories after being involved with mitigation programs. A large majority of the non-patient respondents (80%) showed medium to high level socioeconomic aspects change regarding arsenic and related

An integrated approach to delineation of eco-climatic zones in Northern Nigeria ABDULKADIR, Aishetu (1); MUHAMMAD TSOWA, Usman (1); SHABA, Haliru Ayuba (2); SADAUKI, Abubakar (1) 1: Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria.; 2: Space Application, National Space Research and Development Agency (NSRDA), PMB 437, Garki Abuja, Nigeria Presenting author: ABDULKADIR, Aishetu [email protected] The potential impact of climate change, rainfall variability patterns and the dynamic hydrologic regimes make it imperative that the broad eco-climatic zones could have changed. Though this process has been apparent since the 1969 -1973 Sahelian drought, its extent and actual impact on eco-climatic zonation was left unascertained with obvious implications for general planning. To date, requisite data have not been collated and analyzed to document current changes taking place. The present study used derived eco-climatic parameters (1950-2006); moisture quality index, onset and cessation dates, hydrologic growing season, Aridity Index and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index. These were integrating using GIS techniques to provide fundamental basis for identifying, delimiting and describing the major types of eco-climatic conditions in quantitative time. The overlay was hinged on a theoretical basis which holds the values of the Aridity index, cessation, hydrologic growing season and vegetation index directly proportional to eco-climatic zones while those for onset and MQI are inversely proportional to the quantitative character of the eco-climatic zones. The quantitatively derived eco-climatic index and related maps identified five eco-climatic zones; Wet, Humid, Sub-humid, Dry Sub-humid and Semi/Arid as against, the three classic regional climatic zones; Tropical Hinterland, Tropical Continental and High Plateau zones. The eco-climatic maps further unveil progressive transformation or southwards shifts in the boundaries of the regional climatic zones; Tropical Continental North to Semi-arid/Arid and Dry Sub-humid eco-climatic condition, Tropical Hinterland shows diversified levels of humidity; Dry sub-humid, Sub-humid, Humid and Wet. By implication, the identified changes do suggest shifts in regional circulation system. This may point to the inevitability of episodic drought and crop failure in the belt. Accurate delineation of the current eco-climatic zones provides adequate information needed to achieve food security and sustainability of the physical environment that is fundamental to disaster risk reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. Keywords: climate change, rainfall variability, eco-climatic zones, southwards shifts & food security Role of thematic resettlement as eco-village in Sri Lanka ABE, Miwa (1); SHAW, Rajib (2); TAKEUCHI, Yukiko (2) 1: Kansai University, Japan; 2: Kyoto University, Japan Presenting author: ABE, Miwa [email protected] As part of Indian Ocean Tsunami recovery projects, an “eco-village” was established in Lagoswatta, located in the Kalutara district near Colombo in Sri Lanka. 55 tsunami affected families, from 8 different communities, were relocated to the eco-village. The project was supported by local NGO, and UNEP and UN-HABITAT initiated the Eco-housing project in 2004 to build capacity and to increase awareness

The appropriation of the nature and the social construction of the risk in Angangueo, Michoacán, Mexiko ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); ALARCÓN, Pablo (2); ORTIZ, Carlos (1) 1: University of Michoacán, UMSNH. Mexico; 2: National University of México. UNAM. México Presenting author: ALARCÓN, Patricia [email protected] Floods and landslides that had occurred in México, particularly in the State of Michoacán attracted the attention of the authorities to encourage further risk management development planning. In the town of Mineral de Angangueo, Michoacán a meteorological event with the possibility of a connection with the global climate change, this event was presented during January and February of 2010, which generate the floods and landslide risk of slopes in disaster. The studies in this work analyzes the construction of vulnerability depending on the appropriation of natural resources and the way of performing primary activities (agriculture, forestry, livestock, mining, harvesting, urban development, etc.), increasing the susceptibility of the threats. For this purpose, we used different methodological tools of sociology, history, economics and engineering. Analyzed the vulnerabilities based on the appropriation of natural resources. Were identified seismic hazards, landslides and floods. The analysis of indicators of risk management according to the criteria of the (BID) criteria evaluated at the municipal level. Finally as a result of all this work we propose a public policy agenda for local development. Keywords: Hazad,indicator,land planning Land use planning for disaster reduction in Uruapan, Michoacán, México ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); BELTRAN, Jose (2) 1: University of Michoacán, Mexico; 2: Technological of Monterrey Presenting author: ALARCÓN, Patricia [email protected] The city of Uruapan Michoacán is located in the south-central region of Mexico, the geographical coordinates of Uruapan are 100 ° 00 '100 ° 20' W longitude and 19 ° 30 '19 ° 45' north latitude. On February of 2011, an atypical rain was presented affecting and causing important damages in several municipalities in the state of Michoacán. The municipality of Uruapan, Michoacán was affected by the presence of multi-hazards, these hazards where detonated by the presence of the hydro-weather phenomenon. An important aspect was to convince the municipally authorities to make the DRR a priority in the public politics. In the beginning of the analysis was a great importance to make a research of the historical appropriation of the natural resources, and I could notice that the urban sprawl initially invaded a lacustrine valley and overtime they invaded the rivers. By other hand was really interesant to discover the existence of a underground tunnel that was made with the intention of changing the rivers flow in order to connect with another river flow. These were done approximately 90 years ago. The population forgot the existence of the tunnel and start building. So when the hydro weather phenomenon happened the hydrostatic pressure caused the collapse of tunnel, a big hole was created inside of a building with measures of 317 inches width 238 inches long and 238 inches depth. Important collapses were observed,

issues due to their participation in mitigation programs. The findings of the same categories were only 59 percent in case of patient respondents. Educational qualification, farm size, number of training received, organizational participation, contact with the sources of information and annual family income of the patient respondents demonstrated significant positive association with their socioeconomic aspects’ change. Again education and contact with the sources of information jointly explained the maximum segment (55.40%) of the total variations in socioeconomic aspects of the patient respondents regarding arsenic and concerned issues while education only clarified 50.00 percent of the total variations. Keywords: arsenic, mitigation, arsenic patient, program Developing a comprehensive model for disaster resilient community AGHABABAEI, Muhammad Taghi (1); FARZAD BEHTASH, Muhamad Reza (1); SALEHI, Esmaeil (2); SARMADI, Hajar (3) 1: Research and Planning Center of Tehran Municipality, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Tehran University, Environmental Department; 3: Iran Water Resource Management Co. Presenting author: AGHABABAEI, Muhammad Taghi [email protected] Urbanization is a complex dynamic process playing out over multiple scales of space and time. There is a lot of definition of resiliency which has been determined by scholars and institutions. Resilience determines the persistence of relationships within a system and is a measure of the ability of these systems to absorb change of state variable, driving variables, and parameters, and still persist”. Local resiliency with regard to disasters means that a locale is able to withstand an extreme natural event without suffering devastating losses, damage, diminished productivity, or quality of life and without a large amount of assistance from outside the community. Resilience provides the capacity to absorb shocks while maintaining function. When change occurs, resilience provides the components for renewal and reorganization vulnerability is the pre-event, inherent characteristics or qualities of systems that create the potential for harm or differential ability to recover following an event. Vulnerability is a function of the exposure (who or what is at risk) and the sensitivity of the system (the degree to which people and places can be harmed). Vulnerability arises from the intersection of human systems, the built environment, and the natural environment. The most obvious factor contributing to community vulnerability is location or proximity to hazard-prone areas such as coasts, floodplains, seismic zones, potential contamination sites, and so forth. For example, communities on barrier islands are more physically vulnerable to flooding and hurricane-related damages than those inland. Poorly constructed buildings and infrastructure, inadequately maintained public infrastructure, commercial and industrial development, and housing stock all enhance the vulnerability of the built environment in communities. This article intends to find dimensions and components of environment resilient communities by considering different models and frameworks of resiliency. Finally, the environment resiliency model is proposed based on cause network. Keywords: Urban planning, Environmental planning, Disaster, Communities, Cause network, Vulnerability

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[email protected] To monitor and forecast fire danger many countries use meteorological based fire weather indices (FWI). These indices use daily meteorological input and estimate the fire danger. Outputs are mostly maps indicating the fire hazard for different spatial entities. This approach works well within areas without human impact. But in most European countries ignition is strongly related to human activity. Recently fire researchers are trying to aggregate dynamic weather variables, socioeconomic factors and landscape features related to fire ignition and behaviour to have a better understanding of underlying causes and processes.

In Austria, a new daily fire danger system has been developed to integrate weather data, fuel characteristics, topography, lightning probability and socioeconomic features for the assessment of ignition risk. Additionally, features which are related to fire behaviour (rate of spread, intensity) are combined to express the risk of severe fire behaviour. Here we present the steps to set up the fire danger model: (i) testing and selection of 19 different FWI according to their sensitivity regarding fire ignition in different ecological/climate regions in Austria, taking into account two fire seasons; (ii) definition of thresholds for alert levels based on historical fire records; (iii) development of a fuel type map for Austria expressing potential fire behaviour in different vegetation and land use types; (iv) development of a socioeconomic fire risk model to map spatially explicit fire ignition risk related to human impact; and (v) using topographic features to express ignition danger and fire behaviour. The final step includes aggregating all this information into a daily fire danger model to show daily temporal and spatially explicit fire danger concerning the ignition and the risk of severe fire behaviour. Keywords: forest fires, fuel, fire weather indices, forecast, Fire risk and interactions with other natural hazards under the impact of climate change in Austria ARPACI, Alexander Duran (1); VACIK, H. (1); SASS, O. (2); SAILER, R. (2) 1: University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; 2: University of Insbruck Presenting author: ARPACI, Alexander Duran [email protected] Global warming could cause increasing danger of wildfires which could have long-lasting consequences on woodland ecosystems in Austria. The protective effect of forests can be severely reduced by fire, leading to natural hazards such as avalanches and rock fall. Nevertheless, data on wildfire frequency and distribution is currently still sparse and incomplete for Austria, and long-lasting post fire degradation under adverse preconditions (e.g. very steep slopes) is a possible phenomenon which is currently widely neglected. In our project FIRIA we intend to compile historical wildfire data including information on fuel loads, fire weather indices (FWI) and recovery. Thereby we aim at assessing the governing climatic and socio-economic factors of forest fire distribution including fire vulnerability of different woodland communities and will model and display the spatial distribution of currently fire-prone areas in Tyrol. Furthermore, we will assess the impact of climate change on the distribution and frequency of fires. Finally, we will locate areas of enhanced natural hazards after deforestation

causing severe hurts in approximately 25 housings. After this analysis, the technical-scientific exploration studies where done including analyses of data-bases of GIS, geophysical explorations, soil-mechanics and probabilistic model. The result of these studies where several hazard micro-zoning maps of liquefaction, subsidence, floods, seismic and micro-zoning of antropic hazard map. After all the research, all the results were used in order to create the risk sensitive use planning proposals for the municipality of Uruapan, Michoacán. Keywords: Hazard, land use plannig, risk Engineering education and the need to address some challenges of the 21st century, in terms of training transformation ALLIA, Khedidja USTHB, Algeria, People's Democratic Republic of Presenting author: ALLIA, Khedidja [email protected] As we know, many of engineering issues interact closely with society, and public sector they can not be solved without a full knowledge of social and political dimensions. Examples abound, as energy supply, clean water and its conservation, pollution mitigation of air and land, health care, global warming, and use of the potential of biotechnology to agriculture, food and medicines. Many of these questions are so complex that they must be treated by teams with skilled members in a wide variety of disciplines, each member being aware of concepts and approaches of other members. In addition, with globalization, engineering has become a worldwide profession, requiring an understanding of other cultures, conjunctures, and circumstances. The highly technical and narrow engineering seems to be surpassed and the necessity for a major change in engineering education is a crucial need. Therefore, a recurring theme for those interested in engineering education reform, is that the complex challenges of the coming century will require more creative, innovative, and holistic solutions, which will need a new paradigm for preparing pre-professional undergraduate. Actually, in developed and emerging countries and more or less in the developing world, reforms were undertaken, both to restructure the architecture of training in general and engineering, in particular, in order to prepare future generations for the challenges of 21st century. The aim of this paper is to summarize and discuss ways used to translate into programs, some of the challenges of the 21st century, such as the liability to technical risk and the green economy, to which should meet engineering. Keywords: engineering education, 21st Century challenges, curricula, technical risk, environment protection, green energy, energy supply

Development of a daily fire danger system ARPACI, Alexander Duran (1); GRIMMA, L.N. (1); FORMAYER, H. (1); LEIDINGER, D. (1); BECK, A. (2); GRUBER, C (2); MÜLLER, M. (1); ALBERS, J. (1); VACIK, H. (1) 1: University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; 2: Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics,Austria Presenting author: ARPACI, Alexander Duran

selected amount of Government servants have been trained in the first step. Successful training programmes are conducted by using several aspects like audio, video, posters, leaflets an etc. (2) Planning and preparing: Educating the civilians those who lives in an effected areas from earth slips and flood; protecting the civilians from the above disasters; removing people from dangerous areas; using special communication plans for Disaster Management in Kegalle District; accepting comments and ideas from civilians for minimizing disasters. (3) Preparation and rehearsals:rehearsals for minimizing damages from any disasters; conducting rehearsals for civilians and officials of victim areas; educating them for quick actions and admitting to the hospitals; conducting rehearsals in Schools; conducted successful rehearsals in Ruwanwella, Dehiowita, Bulathkohupitiya and another areas in Kegalle district for flooding and earth slips; by doing rehearsals we can recognize mistakes and can do the needful for any short comes. (4) First aid programmes in disaster management:identifying the dangerous areas and the volunteers of those areas who could use as officials; objectives of first aid programmes are minimizing the life damages among emergency disasters; conducting first aid training programmes for selected governmental officials and especially for health sector. Keywords: Planning, Preparedness, Rehearsals, Fist Aid Introducing auditing of elements and measures of natural crisis management processes as an efficient tool for developing corrective actions BANIZAMANLARI, Farhad (1); POURYARI, Maghsoud (2) 1: Kuritkara Consulting Engineers Co.; 2: Transportation Research Institute of Road and Urban Development Ministry Presenting author: BANIZAMANLARI, Farhad [email protected] The increasing rate of natural crisis due to outbreak of natural events from one side and tremendous investments made on risk mitigation measures on recent decades reveal the uncertainty and ineffectiveness of implemented measures for risk mitigation in lots of case projects. Making an analytical look at the past processes results in short term benefits of various implemented measures instead of their long term reasonability and effectiveness. Auditing techniques of risk mitigation measures has been taken into practice for man-made and technological incidents while there has not developed any concept in this respect for auditing elements of natural management management processes including PPRR. An influential point which may be incorporated in neglecting this concept from natural events and risk management scope, addresses the causes of natural hazards which are out of impact of human and also the complexity of them. While, this fact may be true with respect to unavoidability of happening natural events, human related effects that lead to intensifying the impacts of natural events is still negotiable. Moreover, auditing the implemented measures associated with any phases and elements of natural crisis management cycle would be of essential in reviewing and controlling actions and practices and finally proposing corrective actions. In this paper, there would be demonstrated a proposed method and a practical framework of auditing the natural risk management criteria based on the documentation structure gained from a research project which was defined in Iranian Ministry

by wildfire and infrastructure at risk using process models, and work out a catalogue of possible countermeasures. Keywords: Forest fires, climate change, avalanches, rockfall, disturbances Preparation of school disaster safety plans and simulation BANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri Disaster Management Centre of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of Presenting author: BANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri [email protected] Preparation of school safety plan and setting up an evacuation models are in priority concerns at the current world in considering the disaster risk exist at many schools in Kegalle District in Sri Lanka. In the process of setting up school safety plans these given circumstances are some of priority attention. Display maps of classroom, school and surroundings, pictures or site plans with evacuation routes. The school evacuation map should be displayed in each classroom and in other common places where it can be seen easily. The school safety team should study the emergency plan carefully and make sure they understand all aspects of the plan. The warning team must decide on the mode of alarm and let all persons know the form of the alarm. The evacuation team must designate the safe areas and evacuation routes according to the type of disaster, i.e. when bomb blast occurs outside it is safe inside; when it occurs inside the school then it is safe outside. These details must be made available to all by means of maps displayed at prominent locations. All the staff and students must know what they have to do once they hear the alarm. Parents must be made aware of the process so they do not interfere in the safe evacuation. The outside agencies such as police, local administration, DMC, etc. must be informed of the mock drill and sometimes asked to be present during the drill. In an evacuation, first priority should be given to the junior classes and physically challenged persons as they are most vulnerable. No one will run, turn back or shout. This is important to prevent panic and stampede. If there are injured students who are unable to leave on their own, those should take the priority in evacuation. Keywords: Safety, Vulnerability, Evacuation, Disable, Awareness Preparing and planning in disaster management BANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri Disaster Management Centre of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of Presenting author: BANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri [email protected] Disaster management Center of Sri Lanka is conducting many special planning and preparing programmes for and emergency situations.

In order to that the Kegalle District disaster management center is conducting more programmes for minimizing natural and unnatural disasters as follows: (1) Educational training programmes: Kegalle District Disaster Management Center (DMC) is conducting programmes for people who lives in every cluster which have been affected as well as the areas could be affected. These programmes are conducting throughout whole district. Volunteers, Civil leaders and

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Intensification of climate change and global warming along with an increase of population and deficiency of resources have made the citizens, particularly in developing countries, prone to occurrence of numerous disasters and their associated negative mental and psychological consequences. Psychological consequences are regarded as a serious obstacle against coping with critical situations. In addition to the impacts on public health and the reduction of citizen’s level of participation in different sectors of crisis management cycle and decreased speed of passing from this cycle besides its economical aftermaths, these consequences could negatively affect the general safety of citizens against secondary disasters and hazards following the major disaster due to impairment of their consciousness and concentration. Psychological resilience is one of the most important personality dimensions for being secure against unpleasant mental consequences of disasters. The main pre-constructs and pre-requisites of resilience are present in the majority of people and might emerge in personality construction depending on the environment, and also on nurture and education. Instruction of life skills and preventive family consultation prior to the occurrence of disasters with the approach of promoting resilience is a crucial method of strengthening pre-constructs and pre-requisites of resilience in personality. Based on the experiences of instructions presented in relief-and-rescue operation of Red Crescent Organization in earthquakes of 2005 and 2008 in Qeshm Island in southern Iran and the performance of psychological support teams of this organization, this paper seeks to achieve a model for instructing life skills and preventive family consultation using the approach of enhancing psychological resilience in personality construction for lowering damageability and sustainable promotion of mental health of residents of incident-prone regions. This model is based on representing and simulating difficult circumstances of disasters in instruction and consultation processed, individual and collective exercises, and individual and group conversations among consultants and clients. Keywords: Public education, mental health counseling, general vulnerability, disasters Voluntary Community-Based Preventive Public Education(VCBPPE) before the disasters: a model to facilitate and expedite emergency treatment and improvement public health after disasters BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya (1,2,3); RAHIMI GHASABEH, Saeid (4); RAHATI, Ameneh (5) 1: Hormozgan Province Red Crescent Society of Iran; 2: Member Board of Directors of Nursing Council of Bandar Abbas city and suburbs; 3: Ma student of Family Counseling of Hormozgan University Campus In Qeshm free area; 4: Hormozgan Province Red Crescent Society of Iran; 5: University of Medical Sciences of Hormozgan Province of Iran Presenting author: BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya [email protected] Providing effective and timely emergency treatment services after disasters can largely reduce mortality, other adverse consequences and public health risks after disasters. In addition to adequate knowledge and skills of members of emergency treatment teams, being higher average of public health level disaster prone areas than other areas - the index is generally lower in developing countries - among is the important

of Road and Urban development captioned as flood event documentation. Finally there would be presented a number of predictable outcomes of auditing based on achieved experiences.Keywords: Crisis Management Cycle Audit Risk Mitigation Documentation Impacts of climate change in geographically isolated areas: community perception from riverine islands of south-central and northern Bangladesh BATEN, Mohammed Abdul (1,2); SEAL, Lubna (2) 1: Independent University Bangladesh,; 2: Unnayan Onneshan, Bangladesh Presenting author: BATEN, Mohammed Abdul [email protected] Geographic isolation creates a situation where life and livelihood of riverine island (charland) is entirely dependent on weather that makes the charland people most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to address the challenges posed by climate change in northern and south-central Bangladesh, the study has focused on the people’s perception of Gaibandha, Sirajgonj and Shariatpur for exploring the magnitude and impacts of different hazards namely flood, riverbank erosion, salinity intrusion, water scarcity in agriculture production. The study has revealed that all the areas experience flood, riverbank erosion and water scarcity periodically, but magnitude of impacts varies depending on locality, which is also evident from people’s response. Peoples of Gaibandha identified flood as the most devastating disaster for agricultural production, whereas riverbank erosion appeared as the most commanding peril in Kazipur upazila of Sirajgonj district. Moreover, water scarcity has been becoming a significant problem for study areas that results from a low flow condition of surface water due to higher rate of evaporation and withdrawal of water by upstream neighboring country. In addition, agriculture of Gosairhat upazila of Shariatpur, an interior coast, started experiencing salinity in dry season, though still not at the threatening level, will be detrimental in future due to sea level rise. The combined impacts of climatic hazards on agricultural production results into reduced crop production, changed crop calendar, and crop variety and consequently exert pressure on livelihood and income of the people. The poor, especially the small and subsistence farmers are hit the hardest in most of the cases as they directly involve in food production and possess low withstand capacity in the altered situation when food production is hampered. Keywords: riverine island , flood, river bank erosion, people's perception, agriculture Preventive family consultation with the approach of enhancing psychological resilience and its role in promoting post-disaster psychological preparedness and mental health BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya (1,2); RAHATI, Ameneh (3) 1: Graduate Student of Family Counseling of Hormozgan University Campus in qeshm island; 2: Red Crescent Society of Hormozgan Province of Iran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 3: Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences Presenting author: BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya [email protected]

relate the outcome of the exercises to either the purposes of the participating organisations, nor to the purpose of the exercise itself. Finally, the criteria used as a basis for evaluation are in most cases not explicitly expressed and related to the actions taken by the various organizations. This makes it difficult to trace how the result of the evaluation of the exercise is related to the capabilities of the participating organisations. We end the paper by providing some suggestions on how to systematically improve the evaluation of exercises using insights from design science.Keywords: Crisis, Exercise, Evaluation, EU Civil Protection, Design Science Disaster management and linkages with climate change adaptation BHADRA, Manash Ronjan; KANAK, NNM Mujibuddaula Sardar Kanak; ISLAM, Rabiul Shusamaj Foundation, Bangladesh, People's Republic of Presenting author: BHADRA, Manash Ronjan [email protected] Traditionally, disasters in Bangladesh and in South East Asia have been compounded by climatic factors. Being under the monsoon regime, the country has faced frequent floods, droughts and consequent famines. However, the recent developments in the fields of disaster management and climate change have overlooked these obvious links and two separate institutional structures have evolved to service climate change and disasters. From being viewed as a response mechanism at the end of the impact cycle, adaptation is now identified as a process that builds the resilience of communities to the impacts of climate change and variability and thus enhances the process of sustainable development. This has strengthened the rationale for ”mainstreaming” adaptation into development processes. This paper develops an approach that looks at institutional structures and interfaces as a way of identifying the possibilities and actions for mainstreaming climate change adaptation in the disaster management context. It argues that climate change adaptation and disaster management frameworks have thematic as well as institutional linkages. Both domains address similar issues and similar sets of actors, yet currently disaster management is further evolved and has a stronger legislative base. Yet in Bangladesh, as in many other countries, parallel structures exist for climate adaptation and for disaster management and mean similar sets of stakeholders remain in isolation. By mapping out institutional structures and interfaces, the paper highlights possible entry points for climate adaptation into disaster management structures in Bangladesh and South East Asia. Lessons from Bangladesh and in South East Asia can have wider applications as many other countries share the common challenge of deciding how to best link the two parallel tracks for tackling climate adaptation and disaster management.Keywords: Disaster, climate, adaptation, linkage, institutional The role of management information systems to response to crisis management BOZORGIMAKARANI, RezaAli (1); MAHRDADI, Naser (2); MOHAMMADI, Seyedabolfazl (3); BAVANDPORI, Behruz (4) 1: Student of the University of Tehran in disaster management; 2:

parameters involved in fewer vulnerabilities and improve the quality of public health and to facilitate and accelerate faster emergency treatment and prevention of secondary health risks of disasters in this region for example Aids. Promotion of public health in disasters prone areas depends on many factors. Providing the preventive public education in community-based approaches and also based on voluntary services engaged in community-based organizations like the national Red cross and red crescent societies in disaster prone areas, is one of the important factors in this regard. This article seeks to provide an applied simple model with a local structure for public education that developed the preventive and ameliorative knowledge, awareness and skills of disaster prone residents. This local model can also enhance the average of public health, reduce health risks and facilitate and accelerate the realization of functions of emergency treatment teams after disasters. VCBPPE is a voluntary local structure composed of several local committees of volunteer citizens. These local committees in mutual interaction with the national societies and their scientific, technical and financial support for content production and determination of chapter and costs of required training creates valuable learning opportunities for residents of disaster prone communities. VCBPPE has been based on community-based management experiences of relief and rescue operation of Qeshm Island earthquakes (southern Iran) on November 27, 2005 and September 10, 2008. It also provides a structured substrate for the voluntary participation of citizens with emergency health teams after disasters. Keywords: Voluntary Community-Based , Preventive Public Education, Disaster, Public Health ,Emergency Treatment Learning from crisis management exercises: a design science approach to exercise evaluation BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); TEHLER, Henrik (2,3) 1: Netherlands Institute for Safety (NIFV) – Research Department (The Netherlands); 2: Lund University – Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management (LUCRAM) (Sweden); 3: Lund University – Training Regions Research Centre (Sweden) Presenting author: BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna [email protected] Crisis management exercises are ideally used to test various organisations’ capabilities in a simulated, but realistic, environment. Since real crises and emergencies are not that common, the exercises serve an important purpose by allowing an evaluation of current crisis management capabilities in the absence of real crises. In the presented paper we look more closely at the problem of evaluating crisis management capabilities through exercises. More precisely, how an analytical framework, inspired by design science research, was used to analyze three recent European civil protection exercises. The focus is on how the evaluations of the exercises were performed and the use of three aspects from design science to guide our analysis: context description, level of abstraction and design criteria. We conclude that none of the exercises explicitly considered the impact of context (scenario) variations in their evaluation of the participating organisations’ capabilities. In addition the evaluation of the exercises do not so much analyze the external effect that the participating organizations achieved (i.e. how did the organisations affect the outcome of the exercise?). Furthermore, the evaluations did not explicitly

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micro insurance, generally the volume of claims appears to be more but the actual value of the claim is less, because of low-value asset base of poor clients. However, irrespective of the value of the claims, the poor households feel better protected provided their meagre assets are insured against natural perils.Keywords: micro insurance, product design, natural disasters, feasible Posttraumatic stress disorder and psychiatric co-morbidity following 2010 flood in Pakistan: the role of cognition distortion and suppression CHUNG, Man Cheung (1); NASRULLAH, Muazzam (2); JALAL, Sabeena (3); KHAN, Najib Ullah (4) 1: Zayed University, United Arab Emirates; 2: West Virginia University, USA; 3: Dow University of Health Sciences, Pakistan; 4: Abbasi Shaheed Hospital, Pakistan Presenting author: CHUNG, Man Cheung [email protected] Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and psychiatric co-morbidity can develop following flood (Liu et al, 2006). Suppression as a way of coping, and trauma-induced distorted cognitions about oneself , one’s environment, and the future can develop (Briere & Spinazzola, 2005) but have never been studied among flood victims.

The objective is to investigate the relationship between cognitive distortions, emotional suppression, PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity following a disastrous 2010 flood in Pakistan.

In July 2010, flood submerged villages in Pakistan, killing at least 1,600 civilians. One hundred and fifty-four civilians (F=108, M=46) involved in the flood were recruited randomly from medical camps affiliated with Abbasi Shaheed hospital in three cities of Sindh province. They were interviewed three months after the flood using the Posttraumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale, the General Health Questionnaire-28, the Cognitive Distortion Scale, and the Courtauld Emotional Control Scale.

Half of the civilians in the study knew someone who died during the flood; 83% lost all their property; 98% thought they were going to die and worried about another flood. All civilians met the criteria for PTSD and probable psychiatric caseness, except one. After controlling for demographic variables and subjective perceptions of the flood, helplessness (β=0.49) as a distorted cognition, and suppressed anxiety (β=0.27) as a way of coping predicted PTSD; helplessness (β=-0.32) and suppressed anxiety (β=0.16) also predicted psychiatric co-morbidity along with distorted cognitions of hopelessness (β=0.46) and preoccupation with danger (β=0.53). Suppressed anxiety mediated paths between helplessness, PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity. Preoccupation with danger mediated the path between hopelessness and psychiatric co-morbidity. These results will be discussed in terms of resilient psychological mechanisms.

Supporting literature, people can develop post-flood PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity. Feeling helpless and suppressing anxiety had a pervasive effect on psychological health. However, feeling hopeless and being preoccupied

PhD, Professor, Scientific Dept of Environment Faculty of Tehran University, Tehran,; 3: Student of the University of Tehran in disaster management; 4: Student of the University of Tehran in disaster management Presenting author: BOZORGIMAKARANI, RezaAli [email protected] The research conducted during the recent disastrous consequences on disasters and extensive live and financial losses from natural disasters in some countries indicated that in most cases there is not preparation to response to confront with crisis and dealing with it has been done in an ineffective and non-scientific way. Nature of crisis management response is such that many other aspects of crisis management are interrelated. If the crisis management has four fundamental bases such as prevention and reduction, preparedness, response and reconstruction, the comprehensive crisis management system should plan and act such that available resources balance the risks. Due to the increasing importance of information and its role in managers’ decision making, it seems using information technology will become more important than the past and perhaps it can surely be stated that no organization in the near future without the use of information systems will be able to deal with changing and competitive environment and can survive in it. Due to the important role of information systems in the quality of managers’ decision making, this paper has tried to express the Relationship between accurate and up-to-the minute data and preciseness of decisions being made by crisis management officials. Keywords: Information systems, data management, crisis management, response Insurance cover for natural disasters CHINNASWAMY, Kumar CARE India, India, Republic of Presenting author: CHINNASWAMY, Kumar [email protected] Risk needs of low income communities are distinctively different from other economically better off groups; cover against natural disasters is the most desired risk need than any other risks. In a world of ever increasing episodes of natural disasters, only large scale calamities are reported and responded, calamities which affects the properties of low income households are often considered as usual and insignificant, as the value of the damages are small individually; however for poor households the small is really big enough and miserably devastating! Poor households are more likely to be affected even if there is a small deviation in the distribution of rains.

2010 north east monsoon season proved that, poor households in rural areas are more likely to be affected by weather related risks frequently. 2967 clients sought for compensation in which 693 claims were repudiated as no damage was observed. A consultation process was initiated to decide on awarding compensation to households, as the damage was only partial;

The insurer paid compensation to 2264 households. The total value of the compensation paid was 31,264 USD and total premium paid to the insurer for that period was 195,319 USD and over 34408 clients were covered under the product. In

use earthquake Prediction and Early Warnings information. It is suggested that the fault lays with the fact that there has been an attempt to use 'Prediction' as ‘Real Time Early Warning’, generating uncertainties of scale and timings plus confused decisions and messaging by Governments and media.

Consequently we believe a new approach is required. Prediction is of little use to society without the ability to actually trigger an alarm at the onset of the event. We need to remove the uncertainty, arming Society with ‘real time’ early warning sensor and communication systems. Long term Prediction is vital, so that critical infrastructure is made aware of their need to prepare, but it’s the short term reliable prediction that needs to be developed and integrated as a key tool in conjunction with the ‘real time early warning’ systems.

There is also a wrong assumption that Governments must put a device into every individuals hands; the reality is that if the regional ‘network system’ is created, society will be able to individually buy into that network for the cost of 20 packets of cigarettes per person.

It is proposed that within this new approach, society will within their sectors hold once or twice yearly exercises or ‘shakeouts’; But these don’t finish simply at the end of the ‘evacuation’ drill, the sector must then remain on standby for the following five days, as the norm, to varying degrees depending if a school, factory or emergency service etc. Consequently this enables that when a reliable 5 day prediction is relayed, an exercise is immediately activated, enabling sectors to take a variety of precautionary measures and when the actual seismic event is triggered ‘everyone’ is ‘switched-on’ and able to effectively use the real time early warning alarm period.Keywords: Seismic, Prediction, EarlyWarning, Communication, Assessing inter-agency capital response to terrorism: adaptive coordination DELGADO, Natalia University of Southampton, United Kingdom Presenting author: DELGADO, Natalia [email protected] Drawing on social capital theory and dynamic organisational network analysis of organisations, this research investigates the emergency response inter-agency capital In the City of London (the interoperability between the Metropolitan Police, the Fire Brigade and the Red Cross) and its effectiveness in improving adaptive coordination between agencies, therefore improving the response to complex tasks such as responding to terrorist simultaneous land marks attacks. Inter-agency capital is a new incorporated concept tailored to explain how the relationship between groups in the agencies can improve the flow of resources which attributes to assets embedded in those relationships and networks. The 7th of July 2005 bombing attacks in London highlighted the complexity of multiagency problem solutions and coordination.

This project investigates response to terrorism through a sociological and computational framework to provide solutions to improve the inter-agency response to complex disasters such as the 7th of July 2005 bombings. The research

with danger influenced non-trauma symptoms only.Keywords: Posttraumatic stress disorder, flood, cognition distortion, suppression Global design compliance and land issues challenges and regulatory barriers DE LA POMERAI, Garry GTFBC Global Task Force Building Codes UNESCO- UNCRD Presenting author: DE LA POMERAI, Garry [email protected]"The need for Empowering Building Codes and Land Issues through legislation and compliance strategies including establishing standards for non-engineered buildings and retrofitting, is being addressed through the Global Task Force for Building Codes, including the UNESCO secretariat, UNISDR, UNCRD, The Global Shelter Cluster and IFRC Secretariat continuing from the 2011 Global Platform outcome to establish a comprehensive international network and current resource data base by setting objectives of mapping existing codes, standards, compliance activity and Land issues, from which identifying gaps through stakeholders and by following action plans agreed at the Global Platform through to 2015. Key Note briefings and session discussion will specifically address the continued challenges of Compliance globally at all levels and review an understanding of Regulatory Barriers. The session will assist identifying how you can contribute with data, experiences and grievances and will explain how you may access resources."

The objective is to raise awareness of the challenges to implement Building Codes, Standards for Retrofit and compliance strategies. The session will present existing players, listings of individual current initiatives and will explore the understanding of Land Issues that hamper Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies within proactive and reactive initiatives and response. The Global Task Force for Building Codes is a collaborative and coordinating forum, identifying and collating existing resources intended to enable agencies to provide substantive data to administrations and the construction industry to help create policy and legislation to develop resilience within the built environment or carry out specific humanitarian construction projects.

The session aims at sharing and stimulating the action plans created at the 2011 Global Platform and through other Agency initiatives, widening the audience and encouraging greater participation from within all stakeholders to address the need for more vigilance and capacity to recognized and correct substandard construction which may otherwise lead to the needless loss of life during multiple type hazard events or caused by human negligence within the construction or self-build sectors.Keywords: Building Codes, Retrofit, Land Issues Seismic prediction and real time early warning make a perfect combination DE LA POMERAI, Garry VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom Presenting author: DE LA POMERAI, Garry [email protected] The L’Aquila experience highlighted challenges in how we

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The results are summarized in a prioritization matrix, presenting the significance of the individual risks, and in a cost/benefit matrix, evaluating measures to reduce hazards in the supply chain regarding their economic efficiency. Keywords: Supply Chain Risk Management, Prioritization Matrix, Case Study, Chinese Automobile industry, European Asian automobile Manufacturer, Insurance literacy for micro insurance awareness DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan CARE, India, Republic of Presenting author: DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan [email protected] CARE is an international development aid organization working with poor communities across the world. CARE introduced micro insurance services in 2006 as part of long range risk reduction strategy in coastal districts of Tamil Nadu affected by 2004 Tsunami in collaboration with private insurance providers. Poor penetration of insurance services often is attributed to lack of understanding on risks perceived, insurance services and inability to differentiate from other financial services particularly savings. More over the traditional delivery agents have limited understanding on claim conditions, what qualifies for claim, when to seek a claim and where to submit documents. Considering these challenges, CARE modelled a participatory four-phase client education strategy, (1) risk education, helps the users understand what is risk and how they remain vulnerable in the absence of adequate risk mitigation tools (2) Insurance education familiarises the users on principles and practices of insurance which deepens users’ understanding on how insurance schemes are managed, what qualifies for claims and when claims were admissible (3) Product education, deals with risk cover, claims conditions, enrolment criteria and exclusions (4) process education explains enrolment process, claim seeking process and document requirements for claim settlement. Increased understanding and familiarity over claim conditions resulted in distribution of over 345,000 polices. It was observed that over 40% of the clients were retained in subsequent years. A joint review process was established where both insurance provider and intermediaries came together and reflected on their performance and efficiencies. The intermediaries were trained on claim process and conditions; the increased understanding and capacity at intermediary level enabled them screen the claims at community level which lowered claim rejection besides preventing frauds. For promotion and development of insurance market amongst low income communities an un-front investment in the form of grant would make a difference. Keywords: Risk awareness, client educaiton Identification of critical infrastructures exposed to natural hazards: the main step towards the impact assessment on regional socio-economic systems DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); LARI, Serena (2); BOUCHON, Sara (1); FRATTINI, Paolo (2) 1: RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of; 2: Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Universita' degli Studi di Milano Bicocca, Milano, Italy Presenting author: DIMAURO, Carmelo [email protected]

uses agent-based simulation to examine the effect of inter-agency capital. The conceptual framework of this research consists (i) a hypothesis based on social capital theory “ the higher the levels of inter-agency capital interoperability (training interaction, sharing of information and cooperation) will generate high levels of adaptive coordination making inter-agency response more efficiently adaptable to uncertain complex crisis – simultaneous terrorist attacks” (ii) to assess past inter-agency capital present in the agencies in consideration and its effect on responding to past terrorist attacks (iii) to assess the effect of inter-agency capital in response to complex terrorist scenarios. The purpose of this research and its contribution is to provide a multidisciplinary theoretical framework towards the understanding of inter-agency response to terrorism. The findings of this research show an improvement in inter-agency capital leading to an improvement in adaptive coordination (implicit coordination) thus improving adaptability in complex systems. Keywords: Inter-agency capital, response to terrorism, adaptive coordination, organisational dynamic networks, and agent based modeling. Measures of supply chain risk management DESPOTOV, Steffen (1); ZHANG, Li (1); FRIEDRICH, Hanno (2); BALSTER, Andreas (2) 1: Karlsruher Institute of Technology, Germany, Federal Republic of; 2: Technical University of Darmstadt Presenting author: BALSTER, Andreas [email protected] The Chinese economy has one of the highest economic growth rates and is the second largest economy in the world. Furthermore, the Chinese automobile market has grown to one of the most important automobile markets. However, due to this huge growth of this market, automobile manufacturers are confronted with several risks in their supply chain. Some of these hazards related to the insufficient capacity of transportation networks in China have already been described in the literature. For instance, several studies describe transportation risks caused by the increasing traffic in China itself as well as the growth of global trade between China and other foreign countries. However, to the best of the author’s knowledge the published papers do not describe risks from the perspective of an individual manufacturer, whose supply chain is dependent on the performance and quality of the infrastructure on one hand and has the ability to mitigate effects through risk management measures in the practice on the other side. Therefore, a case study at a European Asian car manufacturer was carried out analyzing the supply chain risk management from the point of view of an automobile manufacturer in China.

This case study categorized the hazards in supply chain into IT-, process-, control-, supply-, demand- and environmental risks. To analyze these risks, information was gathered through interviews with managers in different departments of the automobile company. Furthermore, some measures to reduce vulnerability of the supply chain are also presented.

The objective of the case study was to develop a overview about risks and measures to reduce vulnerability in the supply chain of the car manufacturer.

Keywords: ice shed, transport model, wind energy

Best practices and new technologies in fire detection and suppression DREIBACH, Joachim Franz Fire Watch international AG, Switzerland Presenting author: DREIBACH, Joachim Franz [email protected] Based on the pilot project at the Department “Fire Department Of Bouches-du-Rhône“ it is visible how to integarte such equipment effective and reliable into a powerful Disaster Management system. In this region, each year an area of approximately 30’000 ha is burned.

In summer, the wildfire threat reaches extreme levels when dry and strong winds, blow at 100km/h over the mountain tops and plains and function like a high power fan. The speed of spread of a fire front rolls with up to 2km/hr or more over hilly zones.

In those extreme conditions, a small fire turns out to become a major fire in a period of few minutes and the battle against can only be won, if the professional and well trained teams stop the fire during the first few minutes before its dramatic dynamics are developed.

In addition, the geological area situation, from zero see level up to 1200m mountain regions, requires max employment of the resources and fast, precise decisions by the emergency management stuff.

The French Center of Research and Experience has been observing over the past 10 years a reduction of the average annual burned area by 50% while at the same time fire situation become more and more scarce.

In the South of France for instance we notice a paradox: the average temperature is on the rise, the drying out of forests grows more acute, while the population is expanding in number and inhabited area, thus the fire risk is largely increasing and still the French Center of Research and Experience observes a slight reduction in the annual average surface burned.

This tendency lets assume that all the efforts and advances undertaken over the past, like the high integration of the surveillance system Forest Ranger, start to show their efficiency.Keywords: Wildfire detection, Fire management, Smoke detection Gender and gender identity: the necessity of redefining ELMI, Mahmoud (1); PANAHI, Ali (1); BAGHERI ZNOZ, Baharak (2); HASHEMZADEH, Abolfazl (2) 1: Department of human science, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran; 2: Islamic azad university, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: ELMI, Mahmoud [email protected] Although differences of boys and girls socialization emphasis in all societies in there differences are very obvious in Iran. Traditional models of sexual separation are enforced on

According to the Council of the European Union Directive (2008), ‘critical infrastructure’ means an asset, system or part thereof which is essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. Critical infrastructure networks are exposed to natural events, such as floods, storms, landslides, earthquakes, etc. Recent natural disasters show that socio-economic consequences can be very much aggravated by the impact on these infrastructures. The impact assessment of natural events on critical infrastructures requires: (1) the analysis of the spatial distribution of the different hazards sources and their characteristics; (2) the assessment of the performance of all the components of the infrastructure system and the related propagation of effects. The conference contribution will report the results of a project carried on for the Lombardy Region, Italy, where the public available information about natural risks is exploited in order to identify critical nodes and assets, which need protection in order to mitigate potential socio-economic impacts at regional scale. Such approach integrates the knowledge of the different stakeholders (critical infrastructure operators and civil protection authorities) in order to evaluate the vulnerability of the systems exposed to an hazard, the cascading effects for the business and society and the strategies to mitigate these impacts. In particular, the presentation will illustrate how the public available information can be used to stimulate the awareness about the impacts on critical infrastructure among public authorities and CI operators. The focus will be laid on how such an approach meets the requirements of the risk management decision process which involves critical infrastructure operators and public authorities. Keywords: Natural hazard, critical infrastructure, cascading effects,socio-economic impact Risk of ice shed from wind turbines DRAPALIK, Markus; FORMAYER, Herbert; POSPICHAL, Bernhard; KROMP, Wolfgang University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria Presenting author: KROMP, Wolfgang [email protected] The increasing danger of climate change results in a heightened interest in alternative energy sources. Wind turbines are relatively simple and cost efficient power, but have to be constructed in areas with favorable wind conditions. In combination with cold climate, this leads to icing of rotor blades, which again may leads to ice throw and ice shed. Altough this problem has been known since the rise of wind energy production, only few recent studies consider the current construction parameters. While the risk of ice throw from wind turbines has been eliminated in some countries by regulations, the risk of ice shed remains. Three factors contribute to the total risk of ice shed: meteorological conditions, transport lengths and probability of presence. While meteorological conditions can be evaluated quite reliably, the transport lengths of ice fragments are dependent on various factors and thus difficult to model. Using data from experiments with different kinds of samples and from interviews with wind park attendants a model for the risk of ice shed in the surroundings of a wind turbine has been developed.

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Successful practices have shown that a community’s capacity to manage and reduce its seismic risk relies on capitalization on policies, on technology and research results. An important role is played by education, than contribute to strengthening technical curricula of future practitioners and researchers through university and higher education programs. EU-NICE is a European Commission funded higher education partnership for international development cooperation with the objective to build capacity of individuals who will operate at institutions located in seismic prone Asian countries. The project involves five European Universities, eight Asian universities and four associations and NGOs active in advanced research on seismic mitigation, disaster risk management and international development. The project consists of a comprehensive mobility scheme open to nationals from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, Bhutan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives, North Korea, Philippines, and Sri Lanka who plan to enroll in school or conduct research at one of five European partner universities in Italy, Greece and Portugal. During the 2010-14 time span a total number of 104 mobilities are being involved in scientific activities at the undergraduate, masters, PhD, postdoctoral and academic-staff exchange levels. Researchers, future policymakers and practitioners build up their curricula over a range of disciplines in the fields of earthquake engineering, seismology, disaster risk management and urban planning.Keywords: higher education, developing countries cooperation, erasmus mundus, earthquake engineering Institutional responses to coastal hazards: a comparative perspective FISCHHENDLER, Itay hebrew university, Israel, State of Presenting author: FISCHHENDLER, Itay [email protected] Institutional failure resulting in bad governance has been regarded by some as a root cause of human vulnerability to disasters. The social construction of natural hazards and the impact of governance structures on vulnerability require an in-depth look at the role institutions play in mediating crises. Hence, the general objective of this study is to understand how institutions response to natural disasters and to identify the non-market costs associated with these responses. We first unpack the possible institutional responses into its contributory components based on the typology created, a cooperative case study of eight cases is conducted. The aim of the comparative study is to examine the institutional responses taken in real life by the different case studies and to identify the non-market costs of these responses. It was found that the motivation to create the institutional response is mostly from a physical trigger or from an institutional one. The creation of institutional response mechanisms is a sluggish and tough process which takes time; in the case studies a lag between the motivation to the response and the response implementation is frequently apparent. The inception of the natural hazard is often limited in scale so it serves as a 'wake-up call' to the public and the authorities to respond. This 'wake-up call' results in a response before the major disaster happens, so most cases are of a pre-disaster nature, evident by their focus on mitigation and preparedness and less on emergency response and recovery. Given the

students. Gender is an important factor in the structuring of various opportunities, chances and social roles. In the study we aim to determinate to what extent girls accept their gender identity which social-individual factors influence their acceptance. Identity is a dynamic category and consists of different units that deals with individuals membership in different groups. Identity is encompasses extensive and various dimensions, one of which is gender identity. The present research the gender identity of the female students of the Islamic Azad University of Tabriz within a sample of 371 in the year 2010. The research is of a survey type and the data collection device is a questionnaire. The most influential social factors on gender identity in present research is based on Sandra-Bem and Albert-Bandoras sociology theories and the related researching results are: Gender discrimination in family, power pyramid in family, traditional job attitude, marriage case, father's job and mother's education. The obtained mean for the research variable are as follow: Accepting the gender identity 55.96, gender discrimination 26.86, power pyramid 63, traditional gender attitude 41.90, traditional job attitude 48.34 and religious beliefs 40. The results obtained from different statistical tests, such as variance analysis test, Pearsons correlation coefficient, and T-test showed that there is a significant relationship between gender identity and influential social factors among the factors effective on accepting gender identity in the present research, mother's education, father's job, gender discrimination in family, power pyramid in family, and traditional job attitude show a significant relationship with accepting the gender identity of the female students of the Islamic Azad University of Tabriz.Keywords: Gender discrimination , social factors , power pyramid in family, Identity , gender identity . A Development Cooperation Erasmus Mundus Partnership for Capacity Building in Earthquake Mitigation Science and Higher Education FAGGELLA, Marco (1); MONTI, Giorgio (1); BRAGA, Franco (1); GIGLIOTTI, Rosario (1); SPACONE, Enrico (2); LATERZA, Michelangelo (3); TRIANTAFILLOU, Thanasis (4); VARUM, Humberto (5); SAFI, Mohammad Dost (6,18); SUBEDI, Jishnu (7); DIXIT, Amod (8); LODI, Sarosh (9); RAHMAN, Zillur (10); LIMKATANYU, Suchart (11); XIAO, Yan (12); YINGMIN, Li (13); KUMAR, Hari (14); SALVATORE, Walter (15); CECCHINI, Alberto (16); LUKKUNAPRASIT, Panitan (17) 1: Sapienza University of Rome, Italy, Republic of; 2: University “G.D’Annunzio”, Chieti-Pescara, Italy; 3: University of basilicata, Matera, Italy; 4: University of Patras, Patras, Greece; 5: University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal.; 6: Nangarhar University, Jalalabad, Afghanistan; 7: Tribhuvan University, Katmandu, Nepal; 8: National Society for Earthquake Technology, Katmandu, Nepal; 9: NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan.; 10: University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh; 11: Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Thailand; 12: Hunan University, Changsha, China; 13: Chongqing University, Chongqing, China; 14: Geohazards Society, Delhi, India.; 15: Italian Association of Earthquake Engineering, Rome, Italy.; 16: Rotary International District 2080 Lazio-Sardegna, Rome, Italy.; 17: Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand.; 18: Rotary International Club of Jalalabad, Jalalabad, Afghanistan. Presenting author: GIGLIOTTI, Rosario [email protected]

[email protected] We present the experiences of a community located in an active seismic region in western Venezuela during a seismic swarm that lasted four days with 35 events registered by the Venezuelan Seismological Network in January 2011. This was an unique occasion to study the general reaction and concern of an entire community that was moved from a previous disaster which occurred in Venezuela in 1999 and affected dramatically to Vargas state during the torrential rain that generated a disaster zone. The new home of this community is a settlement where the swarm was widely felt. We observed the positive impact of the preventive training programs and public awareness campaigns in short time and how the population was actively involved in their process of adaptation in a region with a potential seismic hazard. Keywords: swarm, prevention, earthquakes, community, preparedness What do disasters teach us about economics? GREEN, Colin; VIAVATTENE, Christophe Middlesex University, United Kingdom Presenting author: GREEN, Colin [email protected] There is continuing interest in applying economic concepts to disaster risk management. This interest is focused upon three aspects: (i) Economy; how do the shocks of disasters propagate through an economic system and what consequently is the best means of promoting recovery from such a shock? (ii) Decisions; how to make a better choice, what is the best point in the risk cycle to intervene, and how there to intervene.(iii) The use of economic instruments such as prices, insurance, tradable instruments, to change the behaviour of individuals or organisations, as the means of intervening as opposed to directly changing the environment.

This paper addresses the question of what is required of an economics if it is to respond to the use of economic instruments. In particular the paper highlights the question of power; the ability to induce change is the classic definition of power. Attempts to change the behaviour of individuals or organisations are consequently forms of power. This duality of change and power raises a series of questions: (i) How does power work, what are the components of power, what are the domains of the different forms of power, and how effective is each form of power in inducing change in which circumstances? (ii) Who changes, how do they change, and how long does change take in response to each form of power? What are the costs of change both the party seeking to exert power and to those whose behaviour it is desired to change?

This paper reports on current EPI-water FP7 EU project (Evaluating Economic Policy Instruments for Sustainable Water Management in Europe) research focusing on the potential role of EPIs in drought and flood disaster management.Keywords: Economic Policy Instruments, drought , floods, power, resilience Consciousness and knowledge of disaster reduction helps reduction of earthquake disaster

political cost of dismantling existing institutions the most common organizational form that we should expect is a governmental body, either in a local or a central form that coordinates the activities of existing institutions. Given the cost of institutional response we should not expect an ideal setting where institutions have both fiscal and regulatory independence at a high level.Keywords: COASTAL HAZARDS, INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSES IRGC concepts and tools for risk governance FLORIN, Marie-Valentine International Risk Governance Council, Switzerland Presenting author: FLORIN, Marie-Valentine [email protected] Since 2005, IRGC has developed a series of tools for risk governance, which many organisations are using for their own purposes.

This poster will present an overview of these tools: risk governance framework, risk governance deficits, contributing factors to risk emergence.

IRGC is now interested in introducing these concepts for developing appropriate risk governance cultures, in particular in emerging economies and developing countries. This poster will serve to this purpose. Keywords: risk, governance, framework, concepts The influence of technology transfer management in improving the performance of risk management of natural disaster in rail transportation: a case study in Iran GANJEHI, Sajad (1); NAJARI, Alireza (1); NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije (1); AHMADI, Babak (2) 1: M.Sc. in Natural Disaster Management of Tehran University; 2: M.Sc. in Transfer of technology Management of Islamic Azad University- South Tehran Branch Presenting author: GANJEHI, Sajad [email protected] Optimized management of disasters decreases the hazard’s risk. Transferring and using new technology in hazardous countries contributes to an increase in hazards management Productivity. Improving the management performance decreases the hazard’s risk. In this article regarding to the fact that Iran is a hazardous country and the negative effects of hazards on the performance of rail network, vulnerability of Iran’s rail transportation is investigated. And the role of new technologies transfer in increasing the risk management Productivity in rail transportation has been investigated. Finally, in order to use new technologies in developing countries a number of strategies are presented.Keywords: technology, management, natural hazards, rail transportation, risk management, Iran. A seismic swarm: a social lab to promote earthquake preparedness GRANADO, Carolina; AGUILAR, Antonio; VASQUEZ, Raquel Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, FUNVISIS, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of Presenting author: GRANADO, Carolina

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important means for the management of risk. Derivatives do not simply provide a means to exchange risk, but in fact can also create future uncertainties of systemic dimension which might be ethically inacceptable. I will identify several criteria which ought to guide policies in the context of financial risk. Theoretically and practically an ethical approach to financial risk-taking can provide us with new and important insights into areas as diverse as economic ethics, the philosophy of risk, and the structure of financial markets. Keywords: Ethics, Derivatives, Finance, Responsibility, Crisis GERIHCO - An interdisciplinary approach to understand the muddy floods risk (Alsace - France) HEITZ, Carine (1); GLATRON, Sandrine (2); ROZAN, Anne (1); AUZET, Anne Véronique (3); WINTZ, Maurice (4) 1: Irstea-GESTE, France; 2: LIVE-CNRS, France; 3: Lhyges-CNRS, France; 4: CRESS, University of Strasbourg, France Presenting author: GLATRON, Sandrine [email protected] The interdisciplinary research program GERIHCO (for “Gestion des Risques et Histoire des Coulées Boueuses - Risk Management and History of Muddy Floods) has started in 2005 with a pool of a dozen researchers interested in the study of the risk of muddy floods in the Alsacian region. Since then, more than 30 researchers from disciplines as different as economy, sociology, geography, agronomy, have been involved in the several workpakages developed during the project. The main issues studied are related to: (1) the comprehension of the physical processes of muddy floods and the potential agronomic measures that can be implementing to decrease the hazard; (2) the economic assessment of a potential implementation of such measures at the farmers’ scales and more generally the way they could accept new economic tools implementing to improve “good” practices decreasing runoff and soil erosion; (3) the risk perception for local actors exposed to the risk of muddy floods (or directly involved in the risk management) and their potential actions to prevent them for future damages. Other issues such as the role of the information and the communication in risk mitigation strategies have been also studied. (4) The sociological issues are related to the understanding of the environmental beliefs intervening in the management of the risk prone areas. The results show that the management of a natural disaster occurring every year in some cases and damaging inhabitants as well as farmers has to be managed with a collaborative approach: all actors have to be involved in the settlement of mitigation measures. The financial support of the local Water Agency allows us to implement the different studies and then to communicate largely the results of the program. This investment also shows the interest of such an approach in risk studies.Keywords: Interdisciplinary program, Muddy floods, Risk mitigation, Risk assessment Path selection model and algorithm for emergency evacuation during earthquake disaster HU, Fuyu; XU, Wei Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: HU, Fuyu [email protected] Effective disaster management can greatly reduce damages,

HE, Yongnian China Earthquake Administration, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: HE, Yongnian [email protected] The M=8.0 earthquake occurred in Wenchuan region, Sichuan Province of China on May 12, 2008. The event caused 69,277 persons died and 17,923 persons missed, the economic lose reached RMB 845,100 m Yuan (roughly amount to 120,000 m US dollars).The sudden-occurrence and serious result of earthquakes make the disaster reduction more difficulty. People are usually frightened at mention of an earthquake. However, many earthquake cases tell us that the earthquake disaster may be effectively reduced with help of consciousness and knowledge of disaster reduction, which has been proved by several cases, occurred in the above-mentioned Whenchuan earthquake.Quite a few schools in Wenchuan earthquake region, the students and teachers were safe after the earthquake due to the pre-earthquake knowledge education of earthquake disaster prevention and emergency evacuation drilling. Therefore, although the serious damage of collapse of those houses and dormitories, the students and teachers were able safely evacuated. For example, Sangzao middle school in Anxian county, Liuhan Hope primary school in Beichuan county, Huayuanlu junior high school in Jiangyou city, Fifth high school and Xiaoquan high school in Deyang city and so on, totally more than 20,000 students and teachers were basically not injured or died.Besides, there is a significant case. A child care center in Nanba town, in which there were three classes: younger class, middle class and older class. The teacher of middle class, Ms Wang Xingbi has experienced the earthquake when she was young, so she usually organized the children play a game, called “quickly run away when earthquake comes”. Whenchuan earthquake occurred unexpectedly, the children in this class quickly evacuated according to the path, by which the children played the game. So no injured and no died. However, the 21 children in older class died, and 35 children in younger class died by collapse of the house.Keywords: Earthquake Ethics and risk in finance HEINEMANN, Simone Ruhr-University Bochum, Germany Presenting author: HEINEMANN, Simone [email protected] Very little attention has been given to the question of how to deal with financial risk from an ethical perspective. Who is responsible for the risks generated on financial markets? Which aggregate level of financial risk does the community or society have to bear? These questions have particular ethical relevance – especially in the current state of financial markets: Our time is dominated by a variety of global financial crises. Recent years have seen a flood of losses reported by banks, corporations, state and local governments that took a chance on risk. The leading cause of the crises which spread out across the globe is the transformation and re-allocation of risk. Managing und dispersing risk can have a profound impact on individualsʹ life opportunities. The purpose of my poster presentation will be to provide insights into the ethical dimensions of financial risks. My presentation will evolve around financial derivatives which are not only an integral part of the global financial system, but also an

updated mapping of evolving or emerging hazards may give rise to conflicts in territorial and urban planning, these monitoring systems are still scarcely contemplated among the institutional tools for risk governance.

The composite built by these technological and institutional issues is the focus of an Interreg project recently funded to South Tyrol (Italy) and Grisons (Switzerland), aimed to define a shared prototype of scalable technologies, best practices and institutional action plans to deal with evolving hazards in mountain areas densely populated and pervasively crossed by recreational and critical infrastructures. Keywords: Preparedness, long-term monitoring, Interreg project Educating preschool children on earthquakes using simulators IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. [email protected] Children are considered as one of the vulnerable groups of the society in most natural and man-made disasters. Due to the children's dependence on their families, they usually suffer physical and mental problems in confronting disasters. Although this can happen to other groups of the society, however children's problems can bring discomfort to them in their future life. Therefore, special attention should be made to this group and try to provide appropriate measures in order to reduce their anxiety and fear related to probable disasters. In this regard, teaching preschool children on earthquakes and related issues can reduce their vulnerability to some extent. On this basis, in this paper, a review on the role which simulators can play in teaching earthquake issues to children as well as helping in dissemination of the safety culture in families are addressed. A suggestion has been also proposed in regard to one kind of simulator which can be useful in making children sensitive in perceiving earthquakes. Keywords: Safety Culture, Simulators, Children, Earthquakes National efforts and the challenge of disaster in Nigeria JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, Nigeria, Federal Republif of Presenting author: JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed [email protected] Nigeria is a country of over 105 million populations with a total land area of 923,768sq km in West Africa. The nation is affected by mainly by flood, fire, epidemics, building collapse and erosion hazards or disasters. Nigeria, like many other developing countries, faces the enormous challenge of preventing, mitigating and managing disasters. At the national level, formal and organized disaster management activities in Nigeria started as far back as 1906 under the Lagos Police Fire Department when the Police Fire Brigade (now Federal Fire Service) started rudimentary disaster management activities such as firefighting, saving of lives and property, and provision of humanitarian services during emergencies. Following from this, the nation has established national institutional and policy frameworks for disaster management and has implemented several management measures. This

losses and casualties from natural disasters. Emergency evaluation is one of the fundamental problems of disaster management, in which path selection from disaster affected areas to shelters is a very critical aspect. Suitable path selection scheme can improve the speed of emergency evacuation so as to raise the survival rate in disaster affected areas. It is not sophisticated enough to solve the real path selection problem during a disaster if only considering to minimizing total travel distance as did in most existing path selection models. In the paper, we investigated the path selection problem for emergency evacuation during the earthquake disaster. A multi-objective model has been built to select the optimal paths from disaster affected areas to shelters nearby. The objectives of the model are to both minimize total travel distance and to minimize total path risk. To fit the bi-objectives model built in this paper, we use the modified popular and effective algorithms—Dijkstra algorithm by adding a multi-objective strategy to find the shortest evacuation path . The path selection model and algorithm proposed in the paper have been successfully applied to the emergency evacuation in a scenario earthquake disaster in the Chaoyang District of Beijing, China. The result illustrates that the model and algorithm is feasible and effective. Keywords: Path Selection; Bi-objective Optimization Model; Emergency Evacuation; Modified Dijkstra algorithm; earthquake disaster. New approaches for integrated monitoring of slopes movements in mountain regions: the Interreg project "SloMove" IASIO, Christian (1); STRADA, Claudia (2); CHINELLATO, Giulia (1); MAIR, Volkmar (2) 1: EURAC, Italy; 2: Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Italy Presenting author: IASIO, Christian [email protected] The uncertainty related to disasters generated by climate change and anthropogenic modifications of the environment, but never registered in the historical records of a certain area, adds yet another challenge for the decision makers, in terms of strategies, regulations and technologies adopted for protecting the communities without to limit their development and increasing their resilience to natural hazards.

With this regard, the role played by the precautionary monitoring in the risk governance become fundamental and may overcome the modeling of future events, which represented so far the predominant approach to these sorts of issues. This is particularly true considering geological and geomorphological events, which can eventually trigger catastrophic domino effects which can take people by surprise, but usually anticipated by useful precursors.

Significant progress over the past decade in Remote Sensing (RS), Proximal Sensing and integration-based sensor networks systems, provides technologies which allow nowadays implementing monitoring systems for ordinary surveys of wide areas, or regions, pervasively treated by landscape and slope instability. The scale factor of the observed area and the multiple purposes of such a regional ordinary surveys make convenient to adopt RS-based systems which would be too expansive if used only for a local problem, such as a specific landslide. Nevertheless, since dynamic and frequently

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like “acceptable risk” might be necessary to agree about politically. To use similar approaches on how to describe and quantify effect correlations, promote gathered efforts at local level where risk reducing measures are decided upon by different actors and with regard to diverse local conditions. Tests of suitable methods and approaches to measure efficiency of planned or accomplished actions in gain for risk prevention, are described and discussed. Keywords: Effect correlation, effeciency, preventive measure Precautionary evacuation operations using decision analysis: application to catastrophic flood event KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2) 1: University of Manchester, United Kingdom; 2: Warwick University, United Kingdom Presenting author: KAILIPONI, Paul [email protected] Catastrophic disaster represents a vital issue for many countries in the European Union (EU) and around the world. Given the potential damage to human lives that hazards represent, evacuation operations can be the only option available to mitigate the loss of life from catastrophic disaster. However, due to the amount of time needed to evacuate a large area, the decision to evacuate must occur when there is a relatively low probability of the event. Decision Analysis (DA) represents a framework through which managers’ preferences can be modelled along with the uncertainties that influence evacuation outcomes. Evacuation decisions were studied in ten different countries to identify specific evacuation criteria for multiple hazards and the uncertainties that affect outcomes of those decisions. A study of storm-tide flooding is then provided to identify levels of risk at which evacuation actions are optimal. This analysis is supported with both sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to assess how uncertainty in both the preference and probability structure of the decision influence evacuation decisions. The DA findings are then compared with actual evacuation thresholds to provide insight into actual evacuation planning. The primary risk threshold identified for large-scale flood events was at a likelihood of approximately 10%. The study found that actual evacuation actions were slightly more risk-seeking than the prescriptive DA model. Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation also found that evacuation thresholds were highly influenced by non-evacuee casualty rates and emergency managers’ preference for avoiding flood casualties. Substantively, these results represent a multi-criteria methodology to support operational planning for evacuation in advance of catastrophic hazard events. This process supports pre-hazard preparedness by explicitly structuring the evacuation decision using a multi-criteria structure. It can also be used to communicate evacuation decision-making and guide data gathering to improve government preparedness in advance of disaster. Keywords: Decision theory, multi-criteria decision making, evacuation, precautionary action Inter-model influence diagram analysis using modular elicitation methods for evacuation decision-making KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2) 1: University of Manchester, United Kingdom; 2: Warwick University, United Kingdom

paper evaluates the disaster management efforts in Nigeria and the findings reveal a mixture of successes and challenges. Amongst others, the achievements recorded include the establishment of national disaster management framework; establishment of COSPAS-SARSAT Mission Control Center for aviation and maritime search and rescue; acquisition of Mi-17 helicopter and equipment for search and rescue operations; capacity building and public education through short training courses, conferences, seminars and workshops; and mainstreaming of disaster management training into the education sector. Despite these efforts, the nation faces the challenges of weak and dysfunctional institutional frameworks; inadequate disaster management infrastructure and equipment; insufficient manpower and low skills of personnel; poor coordination of stakeholders response agencies and lack of effective incident command structure, amongst others. Effective decentralization of disaster management business; investment in disaster infrastructure and equipment maintenance; institutional capacity building and manpower development as well as active engagement of the community-based organizations and the private sector are recommended for effective disaster management in Nigeria. Keywords: Nigeria, Disaster management, National efforts, Challenges, Institutional framework How to measure efficiency in risk prevention? JOHANSSON, Magnus (1,3); JALDELL, Henrik (2,3); ANDERSSON-SKÖLD, Yvonne (4); NYBERG, Lars (1); BERGMAN, Ramona (4); PERSSON, Erik (1) 1: Centre for Climate and Safety, Karlstad University; 2: Department of Economics, Karlstad university, Sweden; 3: Evaluation and Monitoring Department, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Karlstad, Sweden; 4: Swedish Geotechnical Institute, Gothenburg, Sweden Presenting author: JOHANSSON, Magnus [email protected] Risk assessment methods form corner stones in the striving to reduce risks and threats to human life and society. Proposed actions can be physical or non-physical and adopted or declined after political evaluation, with consideration taken to available resources and estimated effect on risk. To optimize and avoid regrettable actions, decision-makers are in need of well-founded analyses of how efficient different options might be. Analytically, there are several possible steps that can contribute. Firstly, the correlation between a measure and its effect should be based on causality, which often is difficult to establish quantitatively. High frequent accidents (e.g. traffic) can normally be treated statistically , while low frequent accidents with severe consequences (e.g. natural hazards) are more restricted to qualitative descriptions of correlation. Systematic monitoring of injury and damage data and gathering into databases, are a crucial activity for causality valuation. Secondly, economic valuation of effect is an important contribution in a cost-benefit perspective. Thirdly, a measure often brings several different effects and some may fall outside the actual purpose. An additional problem is how to handle effects that exert varied influence on different stakeholders or social groups in society. Fourthly, certain criteria are required for final prioritization. For instance, in analysis of goal fulfillment, effects are compared with politically decided quantified goals. In cases where basic data from steps 1-3 are incomplete, alternative criteria

Assessment effects of River Vegetation Density Index (RVDI) in recognition of damageable areas during torrents KAZEMZADEH, Mohammad Bagher; GHADBEIGI, Vahid; RADMEHR, Hamed; HEIDARI, Morteza; NADERI PEYKAM, Mehdi; MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina [email protected] Existence of different types of short, high and dense vegetation in main channel and floodplain of rivers can cause eliminate water energy, flow lag, river depth rise, river out-pour and financial and soul damages. Correct analysis of flow condition for damageable area projects (DAP) in these parts of rivers needs careful estimates of flow resistance coefficient. This study was performed with the aim of assessment of interaction of vegetation and water depth in rivers during torrents to recognize the submerged areas and manage them. A series of experiments with 3 uniform and steady discharges (Q) and 4 density of vegetation in various sets with use of vegetation density index (RVDI) were performed in a compounded flume in Tarbiat Modares University approximately like a real river. The calculated resistance coefficients (n) in various depth’s ratios (DR) and obtained equations of Q-n and n-DR showed that in low discharges the effect of vegetation in resistance coefficient is deniable, but with rise in discharge like during torrents the resistance coefficient and corresponding DR are very influenced. Results showed with 37% increase in water discharge, resistance coefficient increases about 15.5% that makes rise in water depth. We conclusion that estimation of resistance coefficient in vegetate rivers with common calculation ways without considering vegetation effects can cause of underestimation in water depth, wasteful and unsafe DAPs; but we can estimate careful values with use of obtained equations. Keywords: Damageable areas; vegetated Compound River; Resistance coefficient Evaluation of natural period depending on the structure system KIM, Jin_Seon National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of Presenting author: KIM, Jin_Seon [email protected] Earthquake Recovery Plans ACT performed installation project of seismic accelerometer for public buildings in South Korea. Korean representative architecture is masonry buildings and wooden constructions. This study introduces to structure safety assessment using natural frequency and performs static tests on specimens. The result is that more damage is caused an increase in natural frequency of structue. Keywords: natural prequency, unrainforced masonry building, wooden structure,

Empowerment of the community after a fire - residents' meeting as psycho-social intervention KORVENRANTA, Tiina (1); MANNINEN, Annika (2); SILVOLA, Sointu (1) 1: City of Vantaa, Finland, Finland, Republic of; 2: City of Helsinki, Finland, Finland, Republic of

Presenting author: KAILIPONI, Paul [email protected] Graphical modelling of decisions has been a common tool used in a wide range of analysis methodologies including decision theory and systems thinking. While a process of comparison between like models exist for graphical models within systems thinking, the same cannot be said for the Influence Diagram (ID). Influence Diagrams (ID) are well suited for inter-model analysis due to the explicit interpretation of graphical items within the decision representation. This paper will present a configurable system of IDs to support strategic decision-making. An example of this configurable system will be shown by utilizing strategic-level influence diagrams to analyse evacuation policies across a flood, nuclear dispersion and terrorist attack scenario. The analytical process of the configurable IDs also allows for an analysis of multiple objectives that exist for evacuation decisions. The results of the inter-model analysis show how contextual elements, structural factors and communications factors of the different hazard scenarios have the widest breadth of influence on identified evacuation criteria across the three disaster scenarios. The identification of these common elements across the disaster scenarios represents a type of multi-hazard analysis that can be used to support strategic decisions for general preparedness in advance of catastrophic disaster events. Keywords: Influence diagrams, multi-scenario analysis, graphical models, scenario building Causes that make developing countries more vulnerable in disasters in the case of flooding KARIMI KIVI, Hamid; NAZARIHA, Mehrdad; ZAMANI, Elham; ROHOLLAHI, Mahboobeh Tehran University, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: NAZARIHA, Mehrdad [email protected] All over the word, especially in developing countries, population growth with increasing urbanization rate, especially around the cities, is considered as potential risk. These areas have dense population and wide spread economic activities that are more vulnerable to damages from natural disasters. Because of the inappropriate utilization of water resources, inappropriate soil and vegetation conservation and cities development without planning, these areas are more exposure to flood. Paying attention to prevention phase can play a determinant role in reducing flood risk. Applying a series of instructions for building reinforcing and flood management in urban areas can dramatically reduce floods effect.

By studying crisis management systems in developing countries in the past floods, this article attempts to express how the floods effect can be affected by urbanism. It introduce the Set of solutions such as flood warning systems, Reinforce infrastructures and Retrofit Lifelines, continuous monitoring of hazards sources such as rivers and dams, to reduce its losses and casualties in urban areas. Obviously, using the research findings can improve flood management in urban areas. Keywords: developing countries, flood, urban area, crisis management

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differences between the approaches concerning floods, alpine hazards, coastal hazards and droughts were identified. Approaches for significant improvements of direct tangible damage modelling with a particular focus on cross-hazard learning will be presented. Examples from different hazards and countries will be given how to improve damage data bases, the understanding of damaging processes, damage models and how to conduct improvements via validations and uncertainty analyses. Keywords: natural hazards, damage modelling, Reinforced flexible systems for slope stabilization: an outstanding technology, fully proved in the Iberian area LAGUNA MEGAL, Luis Miguel Freelance Consultant, Spain, Kingdom of Presenting author: LAGUNA MEGAL, Luis Miguel [email protected] “Flexible Systems” concept refers to the installation of steel membranes over unstable mass in a slope, anchoring to transmit strengths onto stable terrain. “Hexagonal Mesh” has been worldwide used since more than 20 years as solution for erosion control and superficial instabilities. In the last 20 years, “Wire Rope Nets” have being used for geotechnical problems requiring higher bearing capacity, but mainly focused on locally retaining rock blocks in the range of a few m3. A System Concept was developed at middle of 90’s in Spain, extending the range of such last membranes to global slope stability problems, for higher bearing capacity required and deeper failure surfaces problems.

Around the year 2000, a new generation of high capacity membranes appeared, and began to be applied with the developed System Concept adapted to its own technical characteristics and in combination with additional reinforcement with steel ropes, providing remarkable advantages.

Unfortunately, low promotion of this outstanding solution has been done internationally, in spite of hundreds of complex geotechnical problems successfully solved thanks to this concept in Spain and surrounding countries, for more than the last 10 years. So, the technology of these excellent membranes is being usually applied in most countries in the lower range of its own possibilities, for superficial failures and up to 5 kN/m2 of bearing capacity. The “Iberian concept” currently provides solutions up to 140 kN/m2, and for surface failures as deep as in any other geotechnical problem.

It is described the System Concept, main elements, range of application, and a real case in Canary Islands, as clear example of benefits provided in so heterogeneous terrains, like extraordinary adaptability for different geotechnical problems in volcanic lands and very low environmental impact, solving problems where other “traditional concepts” applied failed after hard rainstorm events. Keywords: flexible systems, slope stabilization, erosion control, steel mesh Building resilience and reducing vulnerability through integrated risk management in mountain areas LALANI, Farrukh Salim; BROIMSHOEVA, Rukhshona

Presenting author: KORVENRANTA, Tiina [email protected] The poster presents a model of psycho-social community support after a fire. The model depicts the organising and content of the residents' meeting.

Fires are common everyday accidents in Finland. There are annually 6,000 - 7,000 fires involving buildings. Over 95% of the fires leading to death break out in residential environs. A fire always touches the whole community and there can be several people needing psycho-social support. In addition to the residents of the accommodation in which the fire occurred, the neighbours and people in the immediate vicinity may need support.

Community psycho-social support plays a significant part in recovery from a fire. We cover the importance of the psycho-social community support in regard to the resilience of the individual and community. At the individual level, the resilience is affected by personal characteristics, as well as by the external environment, social relationships and other psycho-social factors. A person is part of his or her environment and should also be helped by his or her community. The environment affects an individual's ability to make decisions and act. To develop the resilience, residents need information about what happened, as well as instructions regarding how to act. The residents' meeting is a significant form of community support. The experience of surviving affects how people recover. When the whole community is supported their individual resilience will also develop.

We present a model depicting the organising and content of the residents' meeting. The residents' meeting as a community form of psycho-social support is being developed in the Social and Crisis Services of the Cities of Helsinki and Vantaa, Finland. Keywords: Community, psycho-social, support, resilience, residents' meeting Assessing direct damage and losses due to the disruption of production processes caused by natural hazards in Europe KREIBICH, Heidi; BUBECK, Philip German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany Presenting author: BUBECK, Philip [email protected] Europe has witnessed a significant increase in direct damages from natural hazards. A further damage increase is expected due to the on-going accumulation of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change, for instance, on the severity and frequency of drought events in the Mediterranean basin. In order to mitigate the impact of natural hazards an improved risk management based on reliable risk analysis is needed. Particularly, there is still much research effort needed to improve the modelling of damage due to natural hazards. In comparison with hazard modelling, simple approaches still dominate damage assessments, mainly due to limitations in available data and knowledge on damaging processes and influencing factors. Within the EU-project ConHaz, methods as well as data sources and terminology for damage assessments were compiled, systemized and analysed. Similarities and

and involvement of all the stakeholders that influence the ability of an individual, community, organization or government to recognize their strengths and weaknesses. Resilience requires us to take account of what all the stakeholders in the community can provide and how, even at the most basic level, they can be relied on to assist in on-going resilience. Resilience is an outcome of a well-developed, implemented, integrated and communicated program. It is on-going and changes due to interactions with the environment.

To effectively understand resilience is to effectively develop a framework for sustainability. Through the use of a case study, the development of a community wide resilience program will be discussed and advantages highlighted. Keywords: Community, Resilience, Capacity Building, Sustainability Soil loss and dust release in farmland during extreme dust storms in China LU, Yanli (1,2) 1: IHDP-IRGP, China, People's Republic of; 2: Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: LU, Yanli [email protected] Farmland has strong potential of releasing dust during dust storm weather occurrence. This study is to monitor the dynamic process of soil loss and dust release on farmland during extreme dust storms in Taipusiqi, China. A soil loss and dust release model is established based on a tunnel experiment. The total amount of soil loss and dust released farmland in 2000 was 2478.9 t/km2 and 1655.3 t/ km2. Soil loss and dust released in spring was far more than those in other seasons. Duration of soil erosion was 15 hours during a dust storm event on 21-23 March 2000. Total amount of soil loss and dust released was 176.5 t/km2 and 117.9 t/km2‐accounting for 18.0% and 17.7% of annual amount. On 6-9 April soil erosion lasted for 29.2 hours. Total amount of soil loss and dust released was 446.3 t/km2 and 292.3 t/km2‐accounting for 18.0% and 17.7% of annual amount. Keywords: soil loss; dust release; wind speed; farmland; dust storm Recent climate change in Iran – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina; ZARE, Ali; BAHRAMI, Hossein Ali; TAVAKOLI, Pourya; KHODABAKHSHI, Soudabeh Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Presenting author: MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina [email protected] Climate encompasses the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric particle count and other meteorological elemental measurements in a given region over long periods. Climate can be contrasted to weather, which is the present condition of these elements and their variations over shorter periods.In this paper temperature series of Iran were statistically analyzed in order to answer the question whetherrecent climate change can be proved for Iran; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The meteorological datawere collected within 50 years period from 5 synoptic stations located in Fars province of Iran. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: AOGCM, Change Factor including the trend-to-

FOCUS Humanitarian, Tajikistan, Republic of Presenting author: BROIMSHOEVA, Rukhshona [email protected] Mountain communities are faced with multiple risks impacting their overall economic health. This include underdeveloped water irrigation resource management, increased natural hazard threats, physical isolation, extreme poverty and others. Effective interventions therefore must address all dimensions - environmental, social and institutional. FOCUS is implementing a regional three years cross-border project in cooperation with Hilfswerk Austria International and funded by European Union, “Poverty Alleviation through Mitigation of Integrated high mountain Risk” (PAMIR). The goal of the project is to understand the linkages between environment, disaster risk and poverty. The project will conduct risk assessment of 120 bordering communities in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan reaching over 40,000 people. Particular focus will be on the remote geo-hazards and their possible impact. Examples of such include lake Shiva, which should it break has the potential to wiping say communities on both side of the border. The project takes a multi-step approach to identify risks, generate risk knowledge through risk modeling to help determine priority communities, build capacity to remote hazards and ultimately reduce vulnerability. The project seeks to bring to government agencies, donors, international agencies and the community to integrate environmental sustainability into development strategies and the national action plan. It is considered important to involve stakeholders at all levels and raise awareness on linkages between environmental protection, disaster risk reduction and sustainable livelihood among political decision-makers and donor agencies. Keywords: Shiva, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, remote, poverty, MDG Community resilience - expanding grass roots approach to develop capacity and sustainability LOVE, Gavin John WorleyParsons, United States of America Presenting author: LOVE, Gavin John [email protected] The international community has made advances in the rapid response to humanitarian crises. However too often we are faced with the inability of the individual or community to respond and recover themselves because of a lack of education, involvement or preparedness; or ineffective measures being implemented relating to preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery activities. To overcome this perceived disconnect between preparedness and response, international development programs have been focussing more on developing grass roots capacity for individual and community resilience than ever before.

Governments and businesses are focussing more on the notion of resilience and how it can be developed and measured. Rather than focussing on assessing a community, nation or organization and applying an arbitrary number dependant on an assessment made in a point of time, perhaps we should be looking and the key successes of community capacity building programs and extending them to organizations and nations.

Resilience in today’s complex world requires the integration

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MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic of Presenting author: MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade [email protected] For several reasons islands have a tendency to be relatively more vulnerable to natural disasters including those brought about by factors associated with climate change. In recent years Zanzibar has joined pioneer islands which first clamored more than three decades ago in the United Nations for collective action to meet the threat of climate change. The vulnerability of the archipelago of Zanzibar and Pemba stem from its size, low elevation, droughts, floods and its location on the path of extreme weather events. Current generalized approaches in climate change have not helped much. Despite past climate change episodes, Zanzibar has coped and indeed has a long history of being a centre of commerce, trade, and development.

Less attention has been paid to resilience as a strategic approach. Conceptually,such an approach which takes in the scientific and cultural milieu, is broadly participatory and enabling in nature could be an important component in even changing the mind set about the anticipated problems and lead to optional solutions There is a mistaken belief that climate change problems can be tackled by a sectored approach. Its scientific constituents mean paying attention in an integrated way to incorporate micro and macro components of the climatic elements including temperature, wind, rain and other components..

Departing from the conventional hype about “climate change” this presentation moves away from the blame game. This means attempting to use more knowledge, science and experience to make problems into relevant solutions. For instance if :"climatic components" have been used for thousands of years could they be made relevant again ? Based on scientific and cultural clues, there is reason to be optimistic "resources" have to be looked anew. With its past cosmopolitan approaches, a sustainable future is possible to bring socioeconomic development. Keywords: Zanzibar, Resilience, Strategic Knowledge Use,Participatory Reproducing the lakou: the role of vernacular settlement patterns in post-disaster temporary settlements MILLER, James Patrick University of Oregon, United States of America Presenting author: MILLER, James Patrick [email protected] A primary settlement pattern of the Haitian, Creole culture is the lakou, a spatial manifestation of the familial social structure. The lakou takes the form of a courtyard or compound. This presentation is intended to display the identification and study of the lakou in post-disaster tent cities and transitional settlements, completed through measured drawings, behavior mapping, and interviews. It is conjectured that the methodology will establish the importance of the lakou in community vibrancy and resilience and describe how the lakou adds to the health and resilience of the survivors living in such settlements. I anticipate discovering the importance of this spatial manifestation to be significant to the development of community in a settlement, and

noise-ratio as measure of significance, HADCM3 and Simple Kridging model. According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Iran is clearly shown for temperature over 4 periods: past, middle future, near future and distant future. Annual minimum temperature increased at all scenarios from 1.4 (A2 scenario) to 3.8 (A1 Scenario), but annual maximum temperature increased 1.2 for all scenarios. The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for central part of the region of interest. Keywords: Climate change; Spatial, temporal characteristics; AOGCM; HADCM3; Kridging Building organisational disaster resilience: lessons from Australian bushfire MARCH, Alan Peter; STURUP, Sophie University of Melbourne, Australia Presenting author: MARCH, Alan Peter [email protected] The project examines disaster resilience as a set of adaptive capabilities, reconceptualising them as institutional adaptation, rather than as solely resistance or persistence. The research undertakes critical analysis using multidisciplinary concepts of resilience, examining institutional learning in the aftermath of catastrophic bushfire disasters. Considerable consensus exists in Australia and internationally that building and sustaining resilience to disasters is critical, given the ongoing threat of bushfires and other large scale natural disasters. For example the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) set resilience as its theme for its Perth 2011 meeting, seeking to recognise the connections between individual, community and institutional resilience with national and global resilience, including its relevance to disasters. Despite this policy support, a long standing problem is that lessons from disasters are often not acted upon, or are not translated from response phases to other aspects that affect resilience. One long-standing barrier to improving disaster resilience is the tendency for agencies to focus on physical aspects of response and recovery. This simultaneously de-emphasises the social location of risk and centralises responsibilities away from the pre-disaster characteristics of communities and associated organisations. Rather, disaster resilience would ideally be an open and inclusive adaptive process across community scales that over time reduced disaster risks and improved capabilities via rich information and learning. This paper reports findings into the Bendigo 2009 bushfire in Australia, examining the responses over time of various agencies in seeking to reduce bushfire risks. It is argued that lessons from past Australian bushfire events are often ignored, particularly by agencies, individuals and groups that are not directly involved in emergency response roles, but who are interconnected with resilience. The key impediments and facilitators to organisational resilience (as adaptation and learning) in the aftermath of the 2009 Victorian bushfires are examined and considered.

Keywords: Resilience, Bushfire, Learning, Australia, Organisations Preparedness arising from vulnerability and the value of resilience during the latest climate change episode in Zanzibar

This paper proposes of not only involving multiple stakeholders like the government, UN agencies, Corporates, but, also the people at the community level in both pre-disaster and post disaster in terms of receiving basic disaster management training and creating an inventory for their own survival. This mechanism is helpful both the developing and developed countries. For example; be it the Nuclear Disaster in Japan, or Hurricane Katrina, the world’s most developed countries were reduced to a third world spectacle owing to people’s over-dependency on the federal government. Therefore, globally people are affected by the global crises it is important people at the community level get empowered to handle other crises situations effectively and resourcefully. Keywords: Operationalising Supply Chain in Crises Management Capacity building of school children- case study from India MITRA, Swati; BHANDARI, Mandeep Government of Jammu & Kashmir,Government of India Presenting author: MITRA, Swati [email protected] are the future of any society, therefore it is important to train these young minds to able to handle any crisis emanating due to natural disasters without fear and with a high dosage of confidence!

Located in Jammu & Kashmir, in Katra at over 4,000 feet sea-level is a small government run primary school that comprises students from poor families. The school has classes from Kindergarten- Class 8.A total of 100 students are enrolled in the school and receive education in Maths, Science & Social Sciences.

The state is prone to earthquake; cloud bursts therefore the, Shrine Board under which the school falls undertook proactive steps by providing hands on capacity building exercise to the children .It also ensured Disaster Management gets included in their curriculum so that minimum loss of life occurs in case of any emergency and children are used in the best possible way as effective agents of social change while complying the HFA principles! Keywords: capacity building,school preparedness Lessons learned from massive damage assessment and reconstruction strategies in 2010 Haiti earthquake MIYAMOTO, Kit H.; GILANI, Amir S.J. Miyamoto International, United States of America Presenting author: MIYAMOTO, Kit H. [email protected] Rapid damage assessment and economical and easily implemented reconstruction by national engineers and contractors are critical components of disaster response and recovery. Also, it is critical to engage the commercial sector. Application of such methods allows for an effective recovery of urban areas following major disasters. This methodology was applied to Haiti following the January 2010 earthquake. This M 7.0 earthquake disaster caused over 200,000 deaths, affected 3 million people, and damaged or collapsed over 200,000 structures. An unprecedented earthquake damage assessment by a joint operation of the Haitian Ministry of

speculate its importance to post-disaster planning, enabling a post-disaster settlement to become a successful permanent settlement. The lakou is present in Haitian settlement patterns and is important to the health of Haitian society and culture. I will test the lakou’s importance through a study of post-disaster temporary settlements, showing that through their own devices, endogenous inhabitants create the lakou in post-disaster temporary settlements. I propose that this study will show the need to account for the production of the lakou in the planning of post-disaster temporary settlements in order to maintain the health and vibrancy of the settlement. Keywords: Haiti, vernacular, lakou, temporary settlements The effect of community trust in adopting protective measures in Tehran city MIRMOHAMMAD HOSSEINI, Kiandokht (1,2) 1: SOCIAL SECURITY ORGANIZATION OF IRAN,; 2: ISLAMIC AZAD UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN MEDICAL UNIT Presenting author: MIRMOHAMMAD HOSSEINI, Kiandokht [email protected] Despite the efforts of emergency planners, based on the assumption that providing people with information about hazards will motivate the adoption of protective actions, people living in communities at risk from natural hazards continue to demonstrate a reticence to adopt protective measures. One reason for this has been the failure to accommodate the fact that it is not information per se that determines action, but how people interpret it in the context of experiences, believe and expectations that develop in and are sustained by the community and societal contexts in which they live. Important, but often neglected issue in this regard is the relationship between the community and the source of information and advice on disaster preparedness. In this regard recognition of effective social factors to bringing social trust into being in the society and subsequent to that, the effect of them to adopting protective measures has been studied. Keywords: TRUST, PROTECTIVA MEASURES Community empowerment for effective corporate supply chain logistics in the present economic crisis MITRA, Swati MICRO INSURANCE ACADEMY, India, Republic of Presenting author: MITRA, Swati [email protected] The present world is in the crossroads of both rapid progress and at the same time carries dangerous ingredients of regress. Progress in terms of globalization, industrialization, advanced medical science, information technology and regress in terms of environmental degradation, terror attacks, and now the economic crises.

In such challenging times, it calls for retrospection to rearrange the way logistics reach people as natural disasters seem to be occurring too often.

In simple language logistics involve a huge array of activities-involving a variety of stakeholders- government, corporates, suppliers, distributers, transporters etc. ln the present economic situation it is important none of the resources gets wasted and effectively reaches the affected people.

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Keywords: Disaster; Infrastructure; Recovery; Economic model, Leontief Input Output Model, Tehran

Disaster Management Bases Site Selection Using GIS in Tehran, Iran MOHAMMADI, Sakineh; NOROOZI, Belal; MOZAFARI, Abdollah Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO), Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: MOHAMMADI, Sakineh [email protected] One of strategies implementations for emergency management in natural disasters are providing or making spaces that resist against disasters, particularly earthquakes. These spaces will use in disaster events in each district based on their location in order storing and supplying the emergency and urgent needs and also working as disaster management headquarters in this situations.

The strategic goal for establishing these centers in Tehran, are to provide proper operational and tactical base for the prevention, preparedness and response measures, especially in the various crises of natural disaster like an earthquake and also providing emergency settlement for people in Emergency situation.

Since 2011 and in order to improve crisis management system, Tehran Disaster Mitigation & Management Organization has planned to increase the bases all over Tehran to 374 and one for each district (Mahalleh). These bases built to work with regard to crisis management in times of emergency and use of educational and athletic application in normal conditions.

GIS capability in preparation and analyze of data used in implementation of this project (plan) and with benefit of fuzzy logic-based multi-parameter analysis, an appropriate model for optimum location of bases with regard to the missions and their performances are presented.

In this paper, how to collect and prepare the required information, principles, weighting to each criterion and selection of appropriate options for the construction of support bases are indicated. Keywords: Management Bases, Site Selection, Fuzzy Logic, GIS, Tehran CDM, dam and disaster management of Climate Change MOHAMMADI, Seyed Abolfazl (1); AFSOUS, Mahmood (2); EBRAHIMZADEH, Hesam (3); HOUSHYANI, Bamshad (4) 1: Tehran University , Sazehpardazi iran consulting engineering Co., Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Sazehpardazi iran consulting engineering Co; 3: Rahbord Energy Design &Development Eng. Co.; 4: Climate Focus Presenting author: MOHAMMADI, Seyed Abolfazl [email protected] Climate Change is believed to become one of the causes of many environmental and social crisis. Global warming has recently become a known expression in world’s environmental and sustainable development discussions for its scientifically proven Greenhouse Gas (GHG) impacts. The growing amount of global GHG emissions causes the average

Public Works, the UNOPS, the Pan American Development Foundation, and Miyamoto International was undertaken with the following primary goals: (1) rapid safety assessment, (2) reconstruction database development including debris assessment and damage repair assessment and (3) capacity building of Haitian engineers. As part of this program, GPS based geo-coordinated data collection technique was implemented. Over 400,000 buildings had been assessed by 600 national engineers. This allowed for return of 500,000 people to safe houses. This program was further evolved to address over 120,000 damaged buildings. Over 10,000 buildings have been rapidly repaired per international standard by Haitian micro-contractors. This program is not only providing safe houses but capacity building of commercial and public sectors. Economical development in the post disaster is critical. This program will be further developed to address the post disaster recovery and reconstruction in Haiti and other post conflict and disaster situations. Keywords: 2010 haiti Earthquake Damage assessment Reconstruction Training Retrofit guidelines Optimal selection of recovery strategies after earthquakes, considering interdependencies of infrastructures using dynamic Leontief Input-Output Model MOGHIMI, Sanam; OMIDVAR, Babak; NAZARIHA, Mehrdad; MOUSAVI, S.Mostafa University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: MOGHIMI, Sanam [email protected] Natural disasters and their impacts on human’s life, is one of the most important concerns of our societies. Infrastructures such as power systems, water distribution systems, transportations, communications and gas networks are among the main components of urban environment. There are interdependencies among infrastructures and their subsectors. Infrastructures performance in disasters have significant role in reaching to a disaster resilient society. The uncertainty in Vulnerability assessment of these lifelines in one hand and the lack of proper planning for recovery and selection of optimized strategies for different sectors on the other hand, may results in a great loss.

Iran is located in a seismic active zone and has always been faced devastating earthquakes. Tehran, the capital of Iran, is at risk, since it sits on major active faults and suffers from seismic activities. However, poor construction practices, and having large population, makes Tehran more vulnerable to earthquakes. Accordingly, it becomes necessary to have proper recovery plan beforehand.

In short, we tried to find out the economic effect of infrastructures’ interdependencies using Leontief Input-Output Model based on the matrix of value of commodity flow among different sectors. Tehran is chosen as a case study. By minimizing the total economic loss, sensitivity to economic loss parameters and cost of implementation of strategies, the best scenario is selected for the recovery strategy. This selection is based on initial inoperability, recovery time and demand perturbation after earthquake. The proposed algorithm may be applied in different cities to find out the optimal recovery strategy.

instruments. An important goal has been to design a playful and recreational spot to learn about seismic culture and vulnerability reduction with the community as a protagonist of their own social evolution by means of bolstering local resilience and improving earthquake preparedness.

Preliminary analysis of the 1985 Mexican earthquake by applying the Management Oversight and Risk TreeALVARADO-CORONA, Rafael; SANTOS-REYES, Jaime; MOTA-HERNANDEZ, Dra. Cinthya Ivonne Universidad autonoma del estado de Mexico, MexicoPresenting Author: MOTA-HERNANDEZ, Dra. Cinthya Ivonne [email protected] Throughout history, natural disasters have exerted a heavy toll of death and suffering and are increasing alarmingly worldwide. Given this, natural disasters present a great challenge to society today concerning how they are to be mitigated so as to produce an acceptable risk is a question which has come to the fore in dramatic ways recently. This paper presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the Mexican earthquake that occurred in September 1985, by applying the Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT) model. The key questions that have been addressed are: what can be learnt from earthquakes? Can MORT be applied to the analysis of natural disasters? The MORT may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex fault tree model that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization’s management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident. The MORT model has been applied extensively to the analysis of accident/incidents that have occurred in industries, such as the oil and gas, nuclear, aviation, etc. It may be argued that the model has the potentiality to be applied to the analysis of natural disasters such as earthquakes. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that the impact of natural disasters such as the Mexican earthquake can be mitigated in the future.

How to build a BCM Brand MURPHY, Sean Lootok, United States of America Presenting author: MURPHY, Sean [email protected] How do you feel when promoting business continuity management (BCM) at your company? Many of us know the frustration of implementing a process like BCM that does not generate revenue and the challenges of competing with better-known initiatives and programs.

You are in competition to justify the value you bring to the organization. In the sea of corporate initiatives, Business Continuity Management (BCM) is just another item on a long list of things to do. You are essentially fighting for internal market share.

Would your company keep selling products that no one wanted? Would they sell unwanted or unprofitable products? The answer, of course, is no – they would not. It doesn’t make sense.

earth temperature to raise which may have irreversible impacts on world’s micro and macro climate regimes which in return will cause immense social and environmental impacts. This growing concern was the cause of suggesting three alternatives for controlling greenhouse gases in the 3th convention of Climate Change, which are as follows: 1) Clean development mechanism; 2) Joint implementation and 3) International emission trading. Based on this, any project carried out under the confirmation of authorities in terms of reducing and controlling GHG (in the form of above mentioned alternatives), will be supported by UNFCCC. Then new ideas were suggested in the given field, which are blended with human life and industrial developments. These developments necessitates consuming energy which in turn causes an increase in the amount of GHG and has its own environmental consequences. If an appropriate alternative for producing this kind of energy will be found, there’ll be a reduction in its destructive consequences of environmental aspect. Hence, a new management of energy sources toward a stable environment has been considered. one of the sources of producing clean energy is hydropower plant, Which is being a renewable resource and has the least environmental consequences. in other words, implementing a clean development mechanism in this type of projects along with producing a considerable amount of energy, results in controlling the emission of GHG. In this paper, we considered the crisis of emission of GHG and its environmental consequences, then we described the CMD projects concerning dam, hydropower plant and the process and results involved. Keywords: Clean development mechanism, dam & hydropower plant , climate change Caracas Seismological Museum: A space to develop an interactive experience between the community and the Venezuelan seismic culture.MORENO, Daniel; GRIMAN, Cristobal; MARIN, Wilmer; GRANADO, CarolinaOrganization(s): Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, FUNVISIS, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic ofPresenting Author: MORENO, Daniel [email protected] Caracas is a city with a moderate seismic hazard. The last damaging earthquake occurred in 1967. It was a seismic event with magnitude 6.3. Since this is an important and crowded city, there is a fundamental fact to favor a policy that promotes the creation of a scientific popularization center having as a prime mission to spread knowledge about earth sciences, particularly seismology. Another aspect of this main purpose is to educate people about how to protect themselves in case of a natural seismic event occurrence. We present the characteristics and its social impact of an effort to create in Caracas an open and alive space able to transform a visit into a meaningful experience; stimulating the interest in the natural history, the singular geological features of the Earth, Venezuelan tectonics and promoting dialogue and reflection among the visitors as participants in a reality where awareness about the geological risk is a need to preserve live and ensure a right attitude towards a decrease of vulnerability among the population. One of the highlights of this project was to recover and to restore an old construction and its surrounding area as well as a diverse set of obsolete seismic

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Presenting author: NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna [email protected] In India, the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 affected 2.79 million people and caused extensive damage. Yet, the tsunami occurred in a social world shaped by gender roles that determine access to resources and social rights. The severity of the impact of the disaster for men, women, boys, and girls varied according to an individual’s pre-disaster vulnerabilities. How can NGOs design and implement gender-sensitive programming during disasters? If NGOs mainstream gender in programming, can disaster relief make communities more equitable and just places to live for women and marginalized populations?

Mainstreaming gender in humanitarian assistance programming involves transforming existing gender-neutral agendas in order to focus on the specific concerns of women, men, boys, and girls and the relations between them, while working towards gender equality. Accordingly, programs must directly address the subordinate position of women relative to men. While focusing on women’s empowerment, it is also important to consider the gender hierarchies and vulnerabilities of young men and excluded groups. Central to GM is an analysis of individual and community roles, including the social institutions that reproduce and reinforce the relationships that determine who gets and does what, in both public and private domains.

The set of posters to be presented are developed based on lessons learnt from a two years research on “Gender Mainstreaming” (GM) strategies adopted by NGOs to empower women, vulnerable men, and excluded groups during emergency disaster Post Tsunami humanitarian response in South India. These posters also capture the positive and negative impacts of response programs on women, expose gender stereotypes of humanitarian organizations and aim to create greater awareness on intricate issues of gender and equality. Keywords: Gender, disasters, risk, vulnerability Evaluating and improving the railway safety against flood NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije (1); MOHAMMADI, Bahram malek (2); GANJEHI, Sajad (1); BAVANDPOR, Behrooz (1); FALLAH, Khalil (3) 1: tehran university, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Assistant professor of Tehran University; 3: Clerk of Red Crescent Presenting author: GANJEHI, Sajad [email protected] Railway is one of the most important infrastructures. Safety and maintaining the effectiveness of rail network has an important role in relief and logistic while disasters occur. Disasters especially flood has negative effective on the effectiveness of rail network. Considering the importance of disaster, in this paper, the safety of Iran railway is taken in to consideration. At the end, a number of strategies are suggested to increase the network safety. Keywords: evaluation, safety, railway, flood, Tehran

Amphibious houses and fiscal incentives: revitalizing local economies of flood-prone areas

In essence, we need to think of ourselves as risk management entrepreneurs. This means treating risk management as a product to promote and sell, and not just a program. To start, “define your product” by using the company’s existing market analysis activities, finding your product’s worth, and studying what management cares about. Next, “know your buyer” by building access/purchase points, leveraging the existing infrastructure, and getting internal endorsements. Finally, “appeal to the masses” by evoking emotional response, branding products, and addressing differences.

Reframe business continuity as a product and apply these proven branding and marketing techniques to completely change the way your company approaches BCM. Leveraging persuasive communication techniques drawn from creative industries such as branding and marketing will provide you with a fresh approach for embedding BCM in the culture of your organization. Creating an internal BCM brand will help you to generate excitement among leadership and employees, and to implement your program as an initiative that people actually care about. Keywords: business continuity awareness, building demand, branding, communication Time-varying beta risk of Turkish industry portfolios: a comparison of GARCH and Kalman filter modelling techniques NESLIHANOGLU, Serdar; MCCOLL, John University of Glasgow, United Kingdom Presenting author: NESLIHANOGLU, Serdar [email protected] This project investigates the performance of GARCH and Kalman filter techniques for modelling the weekly time-varying behaviour of systematic risk for 19 Turkish industries in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). GARCH models with different conditional distributions, Kalman filter based models and the standard constant coefficient model are applied to estimate and forecast the time-varying betas in the CAPM: GARCH-normal, GARCH-t, GJRGARCH-normal, GJRGARCH-t, Kalman filter random walk (KFRW), Kalman filter mean reverting (KFMR), OLS models. These approaches are applied to weekly excess returns data for 19 different industry portfolios in Turkey over the period 1 August 2002 to 16 February 2012. Forecasts errors are employed to evaluate both the in-sample forecasting and out-of-sample forecasting performance of all the methods. In addition to this, 1-year weekly beta and return are forecast using a 5-year sample within a rolling window forecast with one week ahead in the out-of-sample forecasting procedure. The model evaluation criteria based on forecasting errors overwhelmingly support the Kalman filter approach for in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting procedure, with the mean-reverting approach (KFMR) generally outperforming the random walk (KFRW). Keywords: Time-varying Beta risk, Kalman Filter, GARCH, Rolling Window Forecasting Volatility, State Space Model Gender stereotypes and disaster vulnerabilities NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna; PINCHA, Chaman International center for INtegrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of

government and community of Glagaharjo after the eruption of Mount Merapi. This study focuses on the importance of the cultural approach in relocation that brings the issue of how government approaches community to do relocation after the eruption and how WALHI facilitates the community and government with participatory discussions approach to solve the problems. The findings in this study include the community of Glagaharjo does not want to move because there is no decision-making process that involves them in making the disaster-prone zone and the relocation rules. Researcher discovered the power of dialogue to be the key to understanding the wishes and a sense of trust from the community to the government should be established early so that all interests can be properly covered. Keywords: Risk, Society and Culture, Relocation, Mount Merapi Processual political methodology as a legitimate response to pluralism and uncertainty issues ORNAF, Julia (1); RAMBAUD, Alexandre (2) 1: Univeristy of Lausanne - Institue of Land Use Policies and Human Environment; 2: Paris Dauphine University - Dauphine RM Presenting author: ORNAF, Julia [email protected] The Global risk relates to possible political turbulences in an interdependent world and to possible ecological disruptions in a globalised world. The difficulty to process risks and conduct a relevant global policy relies on the one hand, on the nature of the information and on the other hand, on the obsolescence of our political procedures.

Uncertainty of risk, unquantifiability of a great part of information and abundance of information make it difficult to synthesize the situation in a non-controversial way. Furthermore, real uncertainty cannot be captured by probability or statistical models and pluralism of goals cannot be reduced to individualism and subjectivism. Thus, a reaction based on calculation is defeated here while bargaining and rationalism are the political standards.

We would like to shed light on the “processual methodologies” as the most promising political tool to process risks’ issues in a plural assembly. A processual political methodology helps to produce a common hermeneutic and common culture, on the base of a continuous building process. The continuous aspect of this political process helps to overcome the rejection of hard law and create a new value of legitimacy.

Therefore, we would like to present the possible institutional reframing of the debates, specific institutional means and specific procedures to support a fruitfully dialectic between diverse parties on such a blurred object. With the help of contributions coming from different backgrounds (Legal, Epistemological, Ontological, Philosophical and Political) we will argue in favor of the processual methodology as a serious lead to progress in governance process on non-quantifiable and controversial questions. Keywords: Processual methodology, coordinated pluralism, instituting society, uncertainty process, risk culture Feasibility studies for optimum establishment of rural at risk of natural disasters

NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije (1); MOHAMMADI, Bahram malek (2); GANJEHI, Sajad (1); BAVANDPOR, Behrooz (1); FALLAH, Khalil (3) CO2 Bambu, Nicaragua, Republic of Presenting author: SANDZER-BELL, Benjamin [email protected] The increasing awareness of vulnerability to flooding events of certain regions, municipalities or neighborhoods is leading to a pattern of reduced investment by private sector actors. Whether as a result of inability to get building permits, or self “deselection” for investment in flood-prone zones, the result is a self-fulfilling cycle of de-investment, thus loss of business activity and loss of tax receipt for these municipalities. Therefore a multitude of short run investment decisions can lead to longer-run impoverishment of certain communities. This can be reversed through fiscal incentives given to home owners, as well as a radical shift in permitting in flood-prone areas, specifically for amphibious housing solutions. Amphibious houses are houses that sit on the ground for most of their lives, but which can rise with water levels during a flooding event, and then return to the ground once the water level subsides. The Netherlands has a long history of battling sea levels and has grown a domestic industry of amphibious structures architects and builders. After Hurricane Katrina, amphibious building solutions have started to be experimented with in Louisiana and has demonstrated the technical feasibility of building homes, in fact potentially entire neighborhoods with amphibious housing. A proactive set of tax incentives for amphibious housing and business offices could go a long way toward breaking the paradigm of avoidance of flood-prone areas, and in fact could spur entire new local economies of flood resilient neighborhoods, revitalizing zones that are destined for an economic death spiral for these municipalities. Keywords: climate change, flooding, impoverishment, amphibious houses, tax incentives, The importance of the cultural approach to relocate the survivors of mount Merapi : a case study of survivors of Glagaharjo Community NUZULIA, Yorsi Wahana Lingkungan Hidup Indonesia (Indonesia Friend of Earth), Indonesia, Republic of Presenting author: NUZULIA, Yorsi [email protected] Glagaharjo is a village that has the highest number of families who do not want to relocate after the November 2010 eruption of Mount Merapi as many as 389 families. Although this area has been set in the red zone that in the legal rules should not be occupied by residents and if they do that then they will not get any government assistance such as for rehabilitation and reconstruction, in fact the process of rehabilitation and reconstruction can be carried out independently and rapidly by the local community. They consider Mount Merapi as a close friend rather than as enemy to be abandoned forever. When he is “raging” or not in the good condition, the community of Glagaharjo knows what they should do. They will do evacuation for a moment, and when there is no dangerous activity by Mount Merapi after they can back and do re-build a life together. Indonesia Forum for Environment or Friends of Earth Indonesia (WALHI) is a Non-Government Organization which is facilitating the interest between the

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The first specialized maneuver of water and wastewater industry of Tehran at earthquake crisis PARVARESH, Mohammd (1); REZA AHMAD NASAB, Mohammad (2); REZA SHARIF VAGHEFI, Hamid (3); ABPARVAR, Ahamd (4); SHEYBANY, Farzam (5) 1: Director Manager in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran, Iran; 2: Management in department of crises management in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran,Iran; 3: Responsible experts in Department of crisis management in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran, Iran; 4: Retrofitting manager in Department of crisis management in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran, Iran; 5: Expert in crisis management in Department of crisis management in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran, Iran Presenting author: PARVARESH, Mohammd [email protected] Nowadays natural disaster such as earthquake in different parts of the world made governments and responsible organizations to think of efficient policies in order to reduce the casualties and losses.

Iran as a country which is located in earthquake zone experienced devastating earthquakes in its history. The capital city Tehran inhabited about 9.5 m. residents 7m of which is in danger in any moment.

Although a number of researches conducted on earthquake crisis management in Tehran, providing drinking water after earthquake was not considered properly. There was always a major concern that if a powerful earthquake happens, it might damage the pipe lines and connections and stop the water distribution.

The first specialized maneuver of water and wastewater industry of Iran regarding handling the earthquake crisis was carried out for a better cooperation with Esfahan province as manager of the crisis and Gilan, Mazandaran, Markazi, Semnan, Ghazvin and Qum (neighboring provinces) as collaborators.

Based on a 7.2 Richter scale earthquake scenario, in north and north-east of Tehran considering the severity of disaster the fifth water treatment plant of Tehran with capacity of 5m3/s will be out of work. Chlorine cylinder (1000Kg) of the second water treatment plant of Tehran with capacity of 8m3/s will leak. Some of the wells will be destroyed, one of the main water pipe lines will break down, and several other pipe lines will be damaged. These parts will be repaired and replaced by collaborating provinces with the help of fire department, emergency center, police station and NGOs. This maneuver was carried out in September 2010 as the first experience in the region and country in 72 hours.

As a result the readiness of management team in water organization of Tehran against natural disaster was tested and increased. Keywords: Earthquake, Crisis, Water, Maneuver Shalstab application to identify the susceptible areas of shallow landslides in Cunha River Watershed, Rio Dos

PANAHI, Ali (1); ELMI, Mahmoud (1); TAJBAKHSHSHISHVAN, Shabnam (2) 1: Department of human science, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran; 2: Islamic azad univercity, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: PANAHI, Ali [email protected] Landslide is a natural disaster which mainly occurs in mountainous regions, suddenly destroys the morphology and cause major damages to residential areas, roads, agricultural lands, etc.

Present paper besides introducing Peydeldel village landslide, also discusses main causes of ranges instability. The most important factors of landslide in Peydeldel village are namely: non-normative construction on steep slopes, undercutting ranges by two spring and entrance of domestic wastewater into it, locating on a 15 to 35 percent slope, relatively high ground-water level, especially on the eastern valley edge of village, Existence of river on the East of the sliding mass and water seepage into it. Since village displacement was not welcomed by villagers, it is suggested that by considering characteristics of site and constructing light weight structures, in preparing guide plan for village, eastern part should be extracted from plan. Keywords: natural disasters, landslide, village displacement, Peydeldel Utilization plan of seismic acceleration monitoring data PARK, Ki Jong National Disaster Management Institute Ministry of Public Administration and Socurity, Korea, Republic of Presenting author: PARK, Ki Jong [email protected] Earthquakes in the long run, there are no earthquakes that occur all over the world. Rapid economic growth is that should be set proper seismic design of domestic occured earquake because dense urban and main structures increase damage. Current Korean peninsula are not damaged but prepare on earthquake that may be come in the future. By many changing seismic wave occurred from source, seismic wave be attenuated or amplified due to geologic heterogeneity. This study is using for free field seismic accleration data on the free field, revision of national seismic harazd map, ground motion dynamic characteristics, study on the verification of seismic design parameters. Suitable for Korea earthquake measured operate an integrated system of data analysis and information free field earthquake plan was to take advantage of the present. 1. PGA major stations nationwide earthquake response spectra contour maps created and proposed. 2. Through the analysis of the acceleration data for each station jibanjeungpokryul assessment and geotechnical information for the purpose of providing earthquake signals H / V ratio by utilizing the frequency band amplified by the soil is proposed to derive. 3. Revision of the national seismic hazard parameters of the governing equations for the acceleration needed to validate the use proposed. In case of Korea has also been expanded, so that the accelerometer seismic network seismology and earthquake engineering research in the field is an active state. Keywords: seismic response, national seismic hazard, dynamic ground properties, acceleration governing equations

be compulsory and the management of the insurance program be based on the principle of a public-private partnership. The objective of the program would be to provide affordable earthquake insurance, up to a maximum amount, to all homeowners, on the basis of risk-based premiums. A comprehensive and unique data bank of the residential stock in the country has been developed, which will be very useful to the local insurance industry as well as to reinsurers. Keywords: Earthquake insurance, homeowners, catastrophe modeling, compulsory insurance, reinsurance markets

The tipping points of socioecological systems: Romans vs. Incas PLACHETKA, Uwe (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (1); KROMP-KOLB, Helga (2) 1: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, ISR; 2: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, gW/N Presenting author: PLACHETKA, Uwe [email protected] The global society is now entering the Anthropocene as a period that follows the Holocene. The recent period is characterized by unprecedented vast use of energy with a devastating environmental impact. The risk of human induced natural disasters is exponentially rising as the resilience of the coupled atmospheric and ecologic system is diminishing especially due to “tipping points”. Although the anthropogenic global warming is unparalleled by any historical society, the cliodynamic approach to risk research such as portrayed by Diamond’s bestselling “Collapse” is based by the World System approach as a criterion for scaling historical showcases to be analyzed as “natural experiments of history”. Such a natural experiment of history is the collapse of the Roman Empire having started to erode according to Tainter with hyperinflation with shortage of slave supply as primary source of societal energy. In contrast the Incas developed a knowledge intensive Empire based on restoration ecology after the disastrous impact of the Medieval Climatic Anomaly. Soft power was the chief driver of their imperial expansion.

Modeling the coping capacity of both world systems, the energy intensive system of the Romans and the information-intensive World System of the Incas requires a combination of World System theory with the Small World Approach. The critical points are the network knots within the respective World System where ecosystem service consumption exceeds local need. Keywords: socio-ecological risks, collapse of cultures, tipping points Providing medical support to large scale public gatherings RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); CASPI, Guy (1); DEL ALAMO GIMENEZ, Alfonso (2); LATASCH, Leo (3); HOPMEIER, Michael (4) 1: Magen David Adom, Israel, State of; 2: Ayuntamiento de Madrid; 3: Frankfurt city health department; 4: Unconventiona Concepts incorporated. Presenting author: CASPI, Guy;DEL ALAMO GIMENEZ, Alfonso;LATASCH, Leo;

Cedros City, SC, Brazil PEREIRA REGINATTO, Gisele Marilha (1); MACCARINI, Marciano (1); KOBIYAMA, Masato (1); HIGASHI, Rafael Augusto dos Reis (1); GRANDO, Ângela (1); CORSEUIL, Cláudia Weber (2); LIMA CARAMEZ, Manolo (1); FEILSTRECKER, Lais Brandao (3) 1: Federal University of Santa Catarina; 2: Faculty of Engineering, Federal University of Pelotas; 3: UFSC, France Presenting author: FEILSTRECKER, Lais Brandao [email protected] The increased occurrence of natural disasters and the impacts they have caused society, especially in developing countries draws the attention of researchers so that mitigation measures consistent with the economic realities of the countries affected are adopted. Brazil has been suffering from disasters often associated with hydrological conditions, among which are the mass movements. The prediction of these phenomena is not a simple task, however, computer modeling combined with remote sensing techniques can aid in the understanding. This work employs the computational model Shalstab to identify areas susceptible to mass movements in the Cunha River Watershed in the municipality of Rio dos Cedros, in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. These areas were characterized in relation to soil use, occupation and the slope of the land by means of satellite images and planialtimetric maps. The methodology consisted of mapping the scars resulting from movements in the study area, the determination of physical parameters and soil resistance, the development of a digital terrain model and its derivatives (slope and contribution area) and in the preparation of the map use and land cover. This study obtained data consistent with the reality of the area, where there is an evident predominance of native forest in the basin and in unstable areas, especially present in slopes between 20 ° and 30 °, and mapped the movements considered in this use as natural origin. Thus, this methodology can be applied in other regions and serve as an aid for public agencies to avoid these disasters. Keywords: Natural Disasters, Landslides, SHALSTAB, GIS, Modeling, Previse and Sensor ASTER Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greece PETSETI, Aglaia (1); NEKTARIOS, Milton (2) 1: University of Piraeus, Greece, Hellenic Republic; 2: University of Piraeus, Greece, Hellenic Republic Presenting author: PETSETI, Aglaia [email protected] It is proposed that Greece undertakes the establishment of a national earthquake insurance program for homeowners that will replace the ex-post disaster relief by the State when an earthquake occurs. Greece is seismically the most active region in the whole Mediterranean. By employing four different catastrophe models, it has been estimated that the economic loss to the residential stock of a 1-in-200 year event is likely to be greater than 22 billion Euros; for a 1-in-100 year event is about 14 billion Euros; for an 1-in-25 year event is 5 billion Euros; and for a 1-in-5 year event is 1.3 billion Euros. This potential loss severity exposes the inherent limitations of the ex-post funding approach to natural disasters adopted by successive Greek governments and underscores the urgent need for establishing a National Earthquake Insurance Program. It is proposed that the earthquake coverage should

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Service Monitoring System (UrSMS) was developed for Surat city under the Asian Cities Climate Resilience Network (ACCCRN) in consultation with the urban local bodies. The main aim of this system was to connect medical practitioners across the city using integrated technological options such as GIS, computing and mobile telephony. UrSMS connects over 500 hospitals, clinics and medical institutions across the city providing near real-time information about health status of the city to the municipal corporation. Within the municipal corporation qualified doctors and managers make use of the system to receive updates on health status of the city and take necessary actions to prevent the spread of key diseases. During normalcy, information collected by the system is used by the administrators to identify specific areas to focus their mitigation efforts; such as creating a situation unfavorable for vector survival and disease transmission through environmental-engineering measures, biological measures, larvicides and insecticides. This paper presents the details of UrSMS, its development, problems, pitfalls and options for implementation within other major cities to monitor city’s health and prevent epidemics. Keywords: Health, ICT, climate change, urban service monitoring, disease Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organizations ROUSSY, Sandrine Action contre la Faim, France Presenting author: ROUSSY, Sandrine [email protected] Humanitarian agencies have to tackle hazards and their consequences. Emergency preparedness phase has to be taken into consideration to be able to anticipate and respond accordingly and timely to safe lives while reducing the risk of vulnerable population. Assessing and analyse risks is to make people think about the impacts of hazard that they might have to cope with. While mitigate the risk, Action Contre la Faim (ACF) is preparing its response in advance, by having a deep understanding of the exposure and risks to hazard encountered in the country. Participatory assessment, targeting the most exposed and vulnerable communities, is conducted to have an overview of the population’s perspective, and to identify which coping mechanisms are developed before, during and after a disaster. Country risk analysis contribute to develop early actions, and to create interface between humanitarian response and disaster preparedness. ACF set up an internal tool called “Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan” that is taking amongst others “Country Risk Analysis” issues. The risk will vary according to the magnitude of a hazard, the vulnerability of the populations, and their capacity to respond to it. The “Country Risk Analysis” is a key point to decide which risks ACF should focus on in order to establish an early appropriate response. The objectives are to identify the hazards, classify likelihood of each hazard, categorize factors of vulnerability, identify vulnerable groups, and to identify existing capacities and resources, detect the level of population preparedness, and articulate roles and responsibilities between all stakeholders. Through this approach, ACF is looking forward to ensure a rapid, appropriate, efficient and effective response to save lives in major identified disasters. Moreover, our expectation is to make sure that the most vulnerable people can set up early

HOPMEIER, Michael [email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected] Large scale public events concentrate hundreds of thousands of spectators. These spectators although usually in good health, pose some unique challenges to EMS providers. First, these events are an attractive target for terrorist organizations a fact that requires special planning, including for a non conventional attack. The large crowd can create a multi casualty situation regardless of external causes. In times where pandemics are concern, such large gatherings are a reason for concern. Weather conditions and the crowd behavior (drug and alcohol consumption) are other issues to be considered, as well as issues related with hygiene and the need to provide "routine" medical services to the public.

The World Health Organization has created guidelines for large scale public gatherings. At the same time, great experience has been accumulated in different parts of the world, preparing for and responding to large scale public gatherings.

Objective of the session it to present and discuss the guidelines for large public gatherings and the actual experience gained from past events.

Structure of the session: (1) WHO guidelines for large scale public Gatherings - Michael Hopmeier; (2) The Madrid experience – The Pope visit and world cup celebrations – Mr. Alfonso de Gimenez – Madrid city, (3) The Frankfurt Experience – scaling up for the World Cup – Prof. Dr. Leo Latasch, Frankfurt Health department; (4) When things go wrong – a multi casualty incident in a large gathering – Mr. Guy Caspi, Operations Division Magen David Adom, Israel.

Each presentation 10 minutes followed by 5 minutes Q&A. 30 minutes interactive discussion with the public. Keywords: Mass gatherings, emergency response, emergency planning Urban service monitoring system (UrSMS): reducing health risks through active monitoring in Surat, India RAJASEKAR, Umamaheshwaran; BHAT, Gopalakrishna; KARANTH, Anup TARU Leading Edge, India, Republic of Presenting author: KARANTH, Anup [email protected] Surat city is located on the west coast of India, in the southern part of Gujarat state. River Tapi flows through the city and meets the Arabian Sea after about 16km. Several minor creeks pass through the city contributing to mosquito breeding. Surat city is prone to floods due to multiple factors, including local rains, discharge from Ukai dam, rains in catchment and tidal movements. Experience of last six decades provides evidence of Surat’s vulnerability to urban floods followed by vector born diseases. In the last one decade the contribution of deaths due to malaria, rabies and tuberclosis show an increase of over two times. Effective control and prevention program should ensure absence or lower prevalence of vector born diseases. In order to achieve this, an Urban

arteries’ reconstruction or recovery without considering the priority of lifelines integrity may lead to serious structural damage and danger to affected communities.

This article provides the methodology for calculating lifelines priority after an earthquake by indicating each lifeline function importance and damage level according the post-event inspection. The methodology represented in this article is done by defining functions, mathematical relations based on numerical calculations and also the preparation of accurate forms and check lists for examining the level of damage in lifelines. Lifelines coding method, the importance function of arteries at lifelines network and damage evaluation of components, are main topics that have been described. In addition, the analyze method in the critical situation has been indicated by defining significant coefficient for each element and finally, reconstruction prioritization of lifelines component regarding the imposed damage and their importance has been elaborated on. Result is going to provide a comprehensive methodology for reconstruction planning which helps to identify critical situations quickly and efficiently while also reducing reconstruction costs and time. Keywords: Earthquake, Lifelines, Risk, Reconstruction Planning Natural disasters and climate change: safe school design and construction SALEH, Alida Exp Services Inc., Canada Presenting author: SALEH, Alida [email protected] The vulnerability of children due to earthquakes is expected to increase, as a result of the inability of structures to effectively withstand these destructive forces and to protect its occupants. Schools built world-wide routinely collapse in earthquakes due to preventable errors in design and construction, causing predictable, intolerable, and catastrophic injuries and loss of lives. The lives of thousands of children are at risk in the event of an earthquake. Today, earthquake experts have put out a warning, that the devastating quake that struck Haiti in January 2010 could be the first of several to occur globally. Given the large number of schools around the globe, earthquakes could result in millions of dollars in damages to buildings, and the loss of thousands of children’s lives. Costs associated with such natural disasters are difficult to quantify but have a profound impact on those who undergo such events. Confronting these risks, creatively and urgently, is nothing short of a moral imperative. It is apparent today that both the ‘green movement’ and the need to improve the seismic safety of school structures are gaining momentum on a global scale. The relevance of sustainable design principles, which entails reducing overall energy and water consumption, using resource efficient building materials, incorporating siting and construction management strategies, and reducing the overall ecological footprint of the building through responsible development, use, and eventual disposal of the structure, to seismic design principles of schools and its impact on occupant health will be examined. Facilitating such synergies would not only decrease the structures environmental impact and the life-safety risks of children at school but would also decrease their health-safety risks.

actions to protect their livelihoods, while being supported by the local institutions. Keywords: risk, hazards, analysis, preparedness, disaster Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organization ROUSSY, Sandrine Action contre la Faim, France Presenting author: ROUSSY, Sandrine [email protected] Humanitarian agencies have to tackle hazards and their consequences. Emergency preparedness phase has to be taken into consideration to be able to anticipate and respond accordingly and timely to safe lives while reducing the risk of vulnerable population. Assessing and analyse risks is to make people think about the impacts of hazard that they might have to cope with.

While mitigate the risk, Action Contre la Faim (ACF) is preparing its response in advance, by having a deep understanding of the exposure and risks to hazard encountered in the country. Participatory assessment, targeting the most exposed and vulnerable communities, is conducted to have an overview of the population’s perspective, and to identify which coping mechanisms are developed before, during and after a disaster. Country risk analysis contribute to develop early actions, and to create interface between humanitarian response and disaster preparedness.

ACF set up an internal tool called “Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan” that is taking amongst others “Country Risk Analysis” issues. The risk will vary according to the magnitude of a hazard, the vulnerability of the populations, and their capacity to respond to it. The “Country Risk Analysis” is a key point to decide which risks ACF should focus on in order to establish an early appropriate response. The objectives are to identify the hazards, classify likelihood of each hazard, categorize factors of vulnerability, identify vulnerable groups, and to identify existing capacities and resources, detect the level of population preparedness, and articulate roles and responsibilities between all stakeholders.

Through this approach, ACF is looking forward to ensure a rapid, appropriate, efficient and effective response to save lives in major identified disasters. Moreover our expectation is to make sure that the most vulnerable people can set up early actions to protect their livelihoods, while being supported by the local institutions. Keywords: risk, analysis, assessment, preparedness, vulnerability, disaster, hazard Development of methodology for post-earthquake reconstruction planning of lifelines SABAGHZADEH, Hossein (1); ZAMANIFAR, Milad (2) 1: Structural Engineering Master of Science and Technology University of Mazandaran, Iran; 2: South branch of Tehran Azad University, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: ZAMANIFAR, Milad [email protected] Earthquake is one of the main factors of disorder and destruction in lifelines performance. Therefore any delay in

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Construction; 3: 3 Hebei Technology University, China, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: SHANG, Yanrui [email protected] Drought is the biggest challenge for the agriculture in North China. It is necessary to understand and make clear the background, process, and current state of agricultural systems’ vulnerability. There exists a complex feedback mechanism between drought driving forces and physical ecology. Taking Hebei province in North China as an example, this paper analyzes the strategies of drought coping under current conditions, the feedback process and mechanism of ecological systems, and considers the implications for sustainable drought management. The study shows that drought, water scarcity and the current increase in gross grain output is a sharp contradiction in Hebei province. The driving forces of drought disasters are from both physical and social economic systems. Here rainfall downward fluctuation and temperature rises due to climate change lead to intensive evaporation, and thus makes meteorological drought more frequent. River flows from outside areas and river flows generated from within Hebei decreased dramatically, and reduced the total surface water volume in recent decades. With water demand increasing, over drawing of groundwater has been occurring in the Hebei plain area. Consequently, the groundwater table has been lowering year after year. The world’s largest funnels are forming and expanding, and ground subsidence is common. Here, improved irrigation measures encourage water consumptive crops and multi-plough agricultural systems, which lead to dramatically increasing grain output volumes, and the subsequent demand for much more water. The combined effect speeds up water depletion and ruins the agricultural ecosystem in return. For sustainable development, a more adaptive and resilient agricultural system must be build. The strategies are as follows: adjusting crop structure based on available water resources, improving drought monitoring and emergency management, designing and building water saving projects, establishing a more water saving society, selecting drought endurance crops, improving field management technology, providing public services, and ameliorating the overall ecological system. Keywords: Agricultural drought, driving forces, vulnerability and adaptation, Hebei province of China Multilayer disaster education through collaboration between a disaster education centre and a local university SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki Kansai University, Japan Presenting author: SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki [email protected] Osaka, the second largest city in Japan, is facing threats of earthquake and tsunami disasters. In terms of the tsunami, an ocean-trench earthquake called Nankai earthquake is anticipated to occur in the first half of the 21st century. In addition to the tsunami, Osaka is also facing a threat of high tide water as the elevation of Osaka is low.

It has been becoming a common sense in disaster management field that collaboration between experts and the public is a key for reducing damages by disasters. However, in terms of disaster education, most of the practices are still a single way

This presentation will discuss 2 case studies from schools in British Columbia, Canada which used these strategies, through which creative solutions, priorities, timeframes and resources were identified. Keywords: Schools, Resilience, Reconstruction, Retrofit, Sustainability Reconstituting community in the aftermath of nuclear terrorism SCHOCH-SPANA, Monica Lynn University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, United States of America Presenting author: SCHOCH-SPANA, Monica Lynn [email protected] Nuclear terrorism is a real and urgent threat, according to assessments by the U.S. and other governments and by nongovernment experts. Mohamed ElBaradei, former director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency and winner of the 2005 Noble Peace Prize, stated in 2009 that, “Nuclear terrorism is the most serious danger the world is facing.” A convergence of factors – raw materials, technical know-how, and motivation – lead to this dire assessment: The global stockpile of fissile materials is enough to make more than 120,000 crude nuclear devices. Should terrorist get their hands on fissile materials, information is publicly available to help them build a device. Known terrorist groups have expressed interest in making nuclear weapons.

Present U.S. policies for managing the consequences of a nuclear detonation focus predominantly on immediate life-saving measures; when recovery is addressed at all, it is typically in the narrow context of radioactive cleanup standards, decontamination technologies, and risk communication strategies. Not well considered are the psychosocial and economic deprivations that could befall those people displaced – either temporarily or permanently – from the stricken area. The numbers are not trivial. U.S. government guidance indicates that to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure, many people will be relocated for a long period of time, from months to year, even at large distances downwind. Recent modeling for one major U.S. city indicates that, in the case of a 10-kiloton detonation, 100s of 1000s of people could be dislocated.

This presentation will expand current U.S. policy discussions about recovery following a nuclear attack on a major city to include mass population displacement, return, and resettlement issues –overcoming the sole focus on challenges at ground zero and addressing a nuclear detonation’s more distributed effects. The presentation will also consider potential ways to enhance U.S. domestic policy on internally displaced persons. Keywords: nuclear terrorism, disaster recovery, displaced populations, climates of migration Study of agricultural drought coping and ecological feedback - taking Hebei Province in North China as an example SHANG, Yanrui (1,2); SHEN, Haifeng (1,2); YANG, Jingpo (3) 1: 1 Hebei Normal University, China, China, People's Republic of; 2: 2 Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecology

and the adapted tool isn’t significant (max difference= 4%). In conclusion, the hospital safety index could adapt for use in our country with minimum changes. Therefore, hospitals in Iran can use the tool to monitor their safety levels, and then make better mitigation and preparedness plans.

Evaluation of hospital vulnerability, three hospitals in Kerman-Iran.SHIEH, Esmaeil (1); HABIBI, Kiomarth (2); SKANDARI,Mohamad amin (1)1: Iran University of Science & Technology; 2: University of KurdistanPresenting author: SHIEH, [email protected] are one of the critical facilities, the role of hospitals in a society will be more vital; when, a mass casualty incident occurs. for example after a large earthquake, the Demands for healthcare services will be strongly increase, while the ability of providing healthcares in vulnerable hospitals will be decrease; because of, direct and indirect disaster effects. To compromise between demands and services, we should reduce the health system vulnerability. The first step for making hospitals less vulnerable to hazards is vulnerability assessment. To know the details of hospital vulnerability, we took “PAHO hospital safety index” and used its checklist (145 questions in 3 divisions) for assessing vulnerability to most priority hazards, in three hospitals in Kerman province. Then the results analyzed by the vulnerability calculator. The results indicate all three hospitals are in level C of Safety, the vulnerability score for most vulnerable hospital is 0.83 (the safety score = 0.27) and for the lowest vulnerable hospital is 0.72 and for the third hospital, the vulnerability score is 0.81. The most vulnerable division in one of them is based on non-structural elements, and in the rest is related to functional capacity.In conclusion, according to the calculated safety levels for the hospitals, in all three hospitals urgent intervention measures are needed, and the hospital’s current safety levels are inadequate to protect the lives of patients and hospital staff during and after a disaster.

How specialised research fields of disaster management can be integrated? SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki Kansai University, Japan Presenting author: SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki [email protected] Faculty of Safety Science (FSS) has been established at Kansai University in Japan in 2010 as its 13th faculty. In terms of the name, there is no same faculty or school in Japan. The principle of this faculty is trying to integrate all of safety issues such as natural disaster management and social risk management. On the other hand, in Japan there are around 800 universities and most of these are private universities. However, 40% of the private universities cannot get enough number of students. Hence establishment of new universities or new schools should be understood as not just quantitative expansion but proposing different types of higher education than traditional universities. Before 1995 Kobe earthquake, disaster management in Japan was mainly based on specialised researches, such as physics, engineers. However,

of knowledge transfer that is there is no collaborative work. It is not easy to find an example of collaborative disaster education between experts and the public in Japan.

Osaka prefectural government established the tsunami and high tide disaster reduction centre in 2009. It is opened as a disaster education centre. However, the centre so far provides a single way of learning; hence the visitor can just get some information from exhibits or lectures.

Based on the mentioned above idea regarding disaster education, the centre and Faculty of Safety Science, Kansai University have started collaboration last year. Kansai University sends some students as volunteers to the centre, and the centre gives the student a chance becoming guiders. Students are expected to become not only guiders but also intermediates between the centre and the public.

Through the collaboration between the learning centre and the local university, multilayer disaster education is expected to realise. The visitors and the staff members of the centre are expected to learn from the collaboration. In addition to this, the students should also learn from their experience as volunteers. The details of this practice will be introduced in the presentation. Keywords: Multilayer disaster education, Disaster education centre, Collaboration,Volunteers Adapting the” Paho Hospital Safety Index” for hospitals in IranHABIBI, Kiomarth (2); SHIEH, Esmaeil (1); SKANDARI, Mohamad amin (1)Organization(s): 1: Iran University of Science & Technology;2: University of KurdistanPresenting author: SHIEH, [email protected] are one of the critical facilities for any country.They play most important role in saving lives after disasters. They have an increased social and political value for an affected community too, and as such, special attention must be given to reducing their vulnerabilities to disasters. Almost all hospitals in Iran are located in areas at high risk for disasters, mainly earthquakes; would they continue to function in emergency situations? One of the best tools may answer the question is “Paho Hospital Safety Index” which helps health facilities assess their safety. The tool has a checklist (145 items), a guideline and a formulated calculator, calculates hospitals safety scores and levels. The tool is developed for hospitals located in Latin America and the Caribbean. To use this tool in different situation for instance in Iran, maybe we need to do some changes in the checklist, weights and calculator. In this study, at first vulnerability in 3 hospitals was assessed, using the original Paho tool. Then the checklist reviewed by three university faculties and four disaster experts, and Using Delphi method, they placed checklist’s items into three categories (no need to change, change is better, changeis necessary), as a next step, the group made the necessary changes in only the items was felt into category 3, then reformulate the calculator for changed areas and items. The assessments refreshed and safety indexes recalculated, using the adapted checklist and calculator. A Comparison between the results indicates the difference between the scores calculated by the original tool

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Qazvin, Iran SOLAIMANI, Roghaieh (1); BADRI, Seyed Ali (2) 1: Payame Noor University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: BADRI, Seyed Ali [email protected] The aim of this study is to compare the perception of earthquake risk in two groups: rural high school students and their parents in a rural area located on the earthquake prone zone of Iran. To determine the attitude of two different groups on the perception of earthquake risk, a questionnaire with 20 items was administered to them. The questionnaire divided to four dimensions include the origin of earthquake, preparation practices, social impact of earthquake, and development outcomes, The data obtained were analyzed with SPSS Software. The first study group of the research is composed of 190 high school students from rural areas of Avaj County, Qazvin province in 2011 – 2012 academic year, 79.8% of the study group are girls, 20.2% are boys. The study was limited to rural boarding schools located in the city. The second one is 113 head of households settled in the area that have at least one high school child. They are composed of 7 women and 106 men that have a very low literacy and education levels. The results show that there are meaningful differences between the perceptions of earthquake risk of two groups. The research highlights the attitude to earthquake of people in a seismically risky region of Iran. The results of this study can contribute to the development of disaster plans and preparedness in rural areas of Iran. This study aims to raise awareness of rural people to reduce the impact of an earthquake on rural area. Keywords: Perception of risk, Earthquake, Disaster preparedness, High school students, Avaj County, Iran. Human preparedness and response to risk: a neuroscience perspective SULLIVAN, Helen T (1); HÄKKINEN, Markku T (2) 1: Rider University, United States of America; 2: University of Jyväskylä & ETS Presenting author: SULLIVAN, Helen T [email protected] Neuroscience, the study of the nervous system, is a field of research that is being used increasingly to better understand the underlying processes of human behavior in a variety of contexts. Today, it is not uncommon to see news stories or research articles about the application of neuroscience to areas including economics, politics and marketing, yet a literature survey reveals little focus on how neuroscience may better help understand human response and behavior in disasters. The nervous system of humans and animals includes what can be described as hard-wired circuits and brain regions that respond to sensory inputs and effect response(s). This poster introduces the field of neuroscience and specific aspects of the nervous system that can play a role in human response to risks. The innate capabilities and capacities of the human nervous system to respond to threatening situations, expressed fundamentally in the “fight or flight” response, will be described. The poster introduces a model of how these innate capabilities may be marshaled in conjunction with advances in training and messaging to lead to improved human response to risks and hazards. Keywords: Preparedness, Neuroscience, Human Behavior

after the Kobe earthquake, it was learnt that integration of the specialised researches is needed to improve coping capacity for disasters. Hence after the Kobe earthquake, many research centres or schools for integration of the fields have been established in Japanese universities. However, in reality it is a difficult work to integrate the fields since researches in universities are usually evaluated by traditional way that is specialised evaluation. In this presentation, in order to establish a different type of disaster management through integration of specialised field, a new concept will be proposed as safety science. Based on a practical example, it will be explained that integration between scholarship and practice that is collaboration between academics and the public can be a nexus of integrating specialised fields. Keywords: Safety Science, Integrated Approach, Higher Education Monitoring of severe weather phenomena for the reduction of damage caused by them on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan SMIRNOVA, Tatyana Yurevna Research Hydrometeorological Institute (NIGMI), Uzbekistan, Republic of Presenting author: SMIRNOVA, Tatyana Yurevna [email protected] The territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan is accessible for the intrusion of cold air masses from the north and cut by the mountain barrier from the countries with mild climate in the south. The country in general is characterized by continental climate which is not typical to its southern position: very hot summers and cold winters, hot days are followed by cold nights. However, due to this specific topographic conditions the areas with the local climatic features are formed. All sectors of the national economy are subjected to substantial effects of the complex climate of Central Asia. Severe winters cause dangers for the cattle breeding on distant pastures. Summer heat is sweltering for the human system. Thunderstorms and hail cause damage to the cotton fields, vineyards, mulberry plantations; showers and mudflows can wash out not only crops but whole villages. Change of air temperature to 10°C and more during a day is attributed to the severe weather phenomena. Both sudden cooling and sudden warming cause serious danger to certain sectors of national economy of the Republic. Sudden spring cooling can cause full or partial crush of agricultural crops and substantial decrease in crop yield capacity. Sudden warming causes mudflows and intensive snow melt. These phenomena lead to damage of transport infrastructure by flooding roads and destroying bridges. Thus, sudden changes of air temperature reduce the firmness of metal constructions and construction works. All severe weather phenomena require permanent monitoring. Taking into account these phenomena and the adoption of adaptive measures facilitating the decrease or reduction of the caused damage is necessary for the provision of a functioning and the sustainable development of agriculture and industry of the Republic. Keywords: Monitoring, weather phenomena, severe weather, cause damage Comparative study of rural people’s attitudes towards risk in an earthquake-prone area: the case of rural high school students and head of households in Avaj County,

is experiencing early onset and withdrawal of rain whereas increasing trend in total rainfall except in monsoon season. This means the region is experiencing less number of rainy days. However, total rainfall has not changed significantly. On the other hand, maximum temperature showed increasing trend while minimum temperature decreasing which means the temperature differentials in the region is increasing. This changing pattern in average max and Min temperature along with precipitation might cause a situation that the species which are growing now may shift to suitable habitat elsewhere in future. Consequently the forest and biodiversity, watersheds and fisheries, productivity of land, agriculture and food security in the region will be affected by these observed changes of climate. Keywords: global warming, temperature, rainfall, climate change, impacts Housing reconstruction policies and socio-spatial transformation of the built environment in old fabric of earthquake-affected cities TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan The University of Melbourne, Australia Presenting author: TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan [email protected] This study discusses the ramifications of housing reconstruction policies and urban planning considerations on socio-spatial transformations of two neighbourhoods within the old fabric of cities affected by earthquakes. The research takes place in two small-sized historical cities of Bam in Iran and Bhuj in India affected by earthquakes in 2003 and 2001 respectively. The first part of the study provides an examination of housing compensation and reconstruction strategy in both cities. This part also compares the implications of the new urban development plans, which entailed vulnerability reduction considerations, on housing reconstruction within the old fabric of these cities. The second part of the poster illustrates and maps the socio-spatial transformation of these two neighbourhoods eight and ten years after the earthquake compared to their ex-ante condition. This discussion encompasses a variety of aspects of such transformation including the physical manifestation of changes in the built environment such as changes in density, building forms, public spaces, and land use, as well as social aspects such as changes in demographic characteristics of the residents of these neighbourhoods. These changes are analysed in the light of different factors including earthquake impacts on physical and human assets as well as land and housing price trends which in interaction with recovery policies can provide explanations for the dynamic processes of transformation in these neighbourhoods. It is discussed why after eight and ten years from the earthquakes, the reconstruction of the old fabric of these cities remains unfinished. The study concludes with a suggestion that over-emphasizing of urban plans on creating a more earthquake-resistant built environment may impinge upon the different aspects of life in affected neighbourhoods, including housing affordability, social fabric and outdoor activities in urban spaces. Keywords: Post-earthquake recovery, old urban fabric, socio-spatial changes, vulnerability reduction, housing reconstruction New disaster mangement system in Turkey

Features of sea ice disaster in the Bohai Sea in 2010 SUN, Shao (1,2,3); SHI, Peijun (1,2,4) 1: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China; 3: College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; 4: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Presenting author: SUN, Shao [email protected] In 2010, China witnessed the most serious sea ice conditions during the last 30 years, which caused a direct economic loss of more than RMB 6.3 billion yuan, 47.6% of the annual total losses of the marine disaster - sea ice caused one of the main marine disasters of China in 2010. Based on the regional disaster system theory, this article presents an initial analysis of the main characteristics of the sea ice disaster in the Bohai Sea in 2010 by using meteorological data, MODIS image, social economic statistical yearbooks etc. And the outcome proves that the enlargement of the icy area in Laizhou Bay, as a representative of the distribution change of sea ice in the Bohai Sea, is the dominating feature of the increasing regional hazard risk; while the area and output expansion of marine aquaculture around the Bohai Sea is the main feature of the increasing exposure. Thus it could be concluded that the serious disaster in general is the comprehensive outcome of these two factors. Keywords: sea ice，disaster system，exposure，the Bohai Sea Geospatial pattern and trend in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh SYED, Md. Abu (1); AL AMIN, Mohammed (2); RAHMAN, A.K.M. Atiqur (1) 1: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Bangladesh, People's Republic of; 2: Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, Chittagong University (IFESCU) Presenting author: SYED, Md. Abu [email protected] The main objective of this study was to identify the changing pattern of temperature and rainfall for better understanding the monsoon behavior in a changing climate scenario. For the study, last 30 years (1978 to 2007) temperature and rainfall observation data of 34 weather stations of Bangladesh were collected and analyzed. The result reveals that average temperature in Bangladesh is increasing for all the four seasons: In pre-monsoon (March-April-May) at a rate of 0.0150C; in monsoon (June-July-August) 0.0140C; in post monsoon (September-October-November) 0.0100C and in winter (December-January-February) 0.0090C per year. Conversely, average rainfall is also increasing at a rate of 3.346mm/year in monsoon and 8.084mm/year in post monsoon. The research also found a significant linkage between temperature and rainfall in pre-monsoon and winter seasons: For an increase of 1°C average maximum temperature in pre-monsoon rainfall may decrease by 153 mm while 1°C increase in average maximum temperature may cause a decrease of 23 mm rainfall in winter season. South eastern region which is one the most important forest ecosystem zone in the country

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institutions. Main problems can be (1) only a (re-)imagination process of fair sharing of risk burdens, (2) shadow of more democratic processes, (3) shadow of hierarchy and balance of power between the different stakeholder groups as well as (4) ‚hollowing out‘ the state. This paper examines partnership approaches for flood risk management in Austria and England. First results show that these partnership approaches develop in direct relation to recent major flood frequency and recent flood history as well as recent financial crises. The current functions of a partnership approach in flood risk prevention lie within the selection of sites for retention basins, conservation of regionally important retention areas, harmonising emergency and spatial planning instruments and awareness-raising for protective measures on a regional level. An important issue is that of compensation measures between upstream and downstream communities, which at present is causing many conflicts. I conclude that although a partnership approach may be seen as an ‘optimal’ solution for flood risk management, in practice there are many limitations and barriers in establishing these collaborations and making them effective (especially in the long term). Keywords: Responsibility in natural hazards; Risk- and responsibility sharing; Natural Hazard; Scale; Environmental Risks State and social factors in global disasters: topological scope TRUFANOV, Andrey (1); TIKHOMIROV, Alexei (2); CARUSO, Antonio (3); RODYGYNA, Albina (1); ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra (4); SHUBNIKOV, Evgeniy (5); UMEROV, Rustem (6) 1: Irkutsk State Technical University, Irkutsk, Russian Federation; 2: International Informatization Academy, Moscow, Russian Federation; 3: Court of Auditors, Regional Chamber of Control , Milan, Italy; 4: San Raffaele Hospital Scientific Foundation, Milan, Italy; 5: Institute of Internal Medicine, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation; 6: Crimean Engineering and Pedagogical University, Simferopol, Ukraine Presenting author: ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra [email protected] Haiti and Fukusima events were different in their pertinent state (formal) and social (informal) reactions to the disasters that happened in the countries. Thus, the problems in the disaster field are not only of natural and technological aspects but those of social and political. If detail risks concomitant to global disasters those depend on state power and social environment. One of the modern and fruitful analysis instruments for complicated social processes is complex network modeling. Contrary to plane complex networks (Barabasi networks, with nodes and links) a new spatial comprehensive network laces, CNL (or supercomplex networks), with stems, layers, nodes, and links) has been recently successfully applied for description of large-scaled socio-economic and biosocial systems. Current work has attempted to put into a focus a national state-social supercomplex network for further effective Risk Analysis and Disaster Management. The inherent problem of the approach is the right choice of indicators. It has been proposed to perform risk assessments of global disasters with taking into account power and social factors through calculating key CNL parameters. Thus, eccentricity of centralities for formal and informal layers is argued to be a sensitive indicator of topological risk for a national structure.

TETIK, Cigdem; OZENER, Suleman Kaan; GOKCE, Oktay; TUFEKCI, Mustafa Kemal Republic of Turkey, Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, Turkey, Republic of Presenting author: TETIK, Cigdem [email protected] Today we live in places that are much more vulnerable than the past. Nevertheless the increase in natural hazard risks is the product of our actions during the transformation process of industrial society into ‘risk society’. Turkey’s first disaster law was written in 1959. This law is the first law about natural disasters in Turkey. The main scope of this Law (1959) is to “provide a formal capacity for post-disaster interventions and to organize relief operations”. The law provides extraordinary powers for provincial governors. “When disasters occur, the governor has a sole authority with powers of commanding all public and private and even military resources, property and all vehicles”. Therefore, each governor is responsible for drawing an ‘action plan’ of relief operations to become effective immediately after a disaster. These local action plans, as described by the disaster law and by the recent mandates of the Ministry of the Interior are currently prepared with greater attention since 1999. However, “there is a preparation for ‘tents and blankets operations’ rather than any form of a risk analysis, estimations of losses and a contingency plan for pre-disaster monitoring of forms of mitigation”. Turkey’s disaster management system was mainly focused on the post-disaster period and there were no incentives or legislations to encourage risk analysis or risk reduction approaches before the two catastrophic earthquakes in the year 1999. After these events the disaster management system has been changed. Many new laws, regulations and other instruments on planning and implementation in all phases of a disaster (mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery and rehabilitation) were accepted. In May 2009, with Law No. 5902, three main disaster related organizations, were merged under one umbrella organization in the office of the Prime Ministry and the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency were established (DEMP). Keywords: Disaster Managemet,New System, Turkey Reframing risk- and responsibility-sharing in flood risk management in England and Austria THALER, Thomas A.; VIAVATTENE, Christophe Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, United Kingdom Presenting author: VIAVATTENE, Christophe [email protected] Flood governance and policy in Europe are changing: the role of the state and individual responsibility for risk management are now key contemporary issues in flood policy. The new policy agenda is to enhance the responsibilities of local authorities and individuals in flood risk management and reduce the controlling role of central national governments. In this way, the focus of policy discussion refers two main aspects: (a) fair sharing of risk-burdens between public authorities, private companies, and individuals and (b) process of sharing responsibility, especially how to encourage lower government agencies and non-government agents to take over certain tasks from the central government. In general, risk- and responsibility-sharing comprises new governance practices, which include new regulations, organisations and

assessment VILLANUEVA HOLM-NIELSEN, Pablo ALECTIA / DTU, Denmark, Kingdom of Presenting author: VILLANUEVA HOLM-NIELSEN, Pablo [email protected] In a disaster an effective response requires a reliable damage assessment. Often this is done based on satellite images. In the case of the Haiti earthquake several organizations shared the task of doing a rapid satellite-based damage assessment of all the buildings in Port-au-Prince. These reported damages where later compared to a field assessment, which showed that the overall accuracy of the damage assessment was 61%. This result calls for an improvement in rapid damage assessment done based on satellite images.

The present study explores the area of crowdsourcing in order to aid the damage assessment efforts. At present there are a large number of remote sensors that could be used by the crowds in a disaster situation. At the same time there are a number of experts around the world that are willing to use some of their spare time to help during the response of a disaster, by performing useful tasks from their home.

In this study, crowdsourcing has been tested and found effective for damage assessment in a disaster situation such as the earthquake of Haiti in 2010. Pictures of damaged houses were assessed by two groups of crowds: a non-expert crowd and also by construction experts. The results of these crowdsourcing efforts were then compared to the satellite-based assessment and to the final field assessment.

Comparing the different accuracies, the results indicate that crowdsourcing would produce an effective assessment in a large-scale disaster. The crowdsourcing assessment had an accuracy of 73%, which could be improved up to 86% depending on the dataset. The time taken to perform this assessment was not larger than in the satellite-based case. The main types of errors that are avoided by crowdsourcing are presented along with suggestions for further improvement of the system and suggestions for further research. Keywords: Damage assessment, crowdsourcing, response, natural disaster, urban disaster The seismic vulnerability base on macroeconomic indicators and risk evaluation in Asia WANG, Xiaoqing (1); YUAN, Xiaoxiang (1); DING, Xiang (1); LI, Zhi (2) 1: Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, People's Republic of; 2: Liaoning Earthquake Administration, Shenyang, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: WANG, Xiaoqing [email protected] The seismic vulnerability analyses based on the buildings stocks have used widely in the world. As the great change of building distribution is happening in the world, especially in the developing countries, it is often facing the difficulties of data updating for the vulnerability assessment. On the other hand, there exists difference between the losses due to structural damage (although it is the major part) and the whole earthquake losses. Chen et al (1998) developed a method to assess the global seismic loss based on macroeconomic indicators. The method is easy to update the data needed

The suggested development of trajectories in the “phase space” defined on the basis of possible significant parameters of CNL synthesize and summarize the individual information of separate indicators into easy to interpret factor scores. The CNL describes and clarifies quantitatively governmental and social impact on global disasters and emergencies, proposes pertinent visualization as a common language for experts of diverse disciplines and thus gives a roadmap for countering actions. Synergetic CNL is a prospective approach which promotes: (1) assessing topological risks in disaster management; (2) clarification of interagency, military and civilian collaboration. Keywords: Risk Analysis, State Power, Social Environment, Complex and Supercomplex Networks, Topology Integrated Flood Management in the context of climate change: case study Vietnam VAN STAVEREN, Martijn Floris Wageningen UR, Netherlands, Kingdom of the Presenting author: VAN STAVEREN, Martijn Floris [email protected] Research has indicated that climate patterns are changing. For some regions, this could lead to increased rainfall both in quantity and intensity, which in turn increase risk on floods. In Vietnam, farming communities are most exposed to flood risk as they live either close to rivers or in mountainous regions, where flash floods occur. Integrated Flood Management IFM is a relatively new concept in the field of flood risk management. It is seen as a component of integrated water resources management, but focuses strongly on flood management issues. It promotes an integrated approach towards flood management, and aims at maximizing the net benefits from flood plains and minimizing loss of life from flooding. Because large-scale built protection measures are not seen as the most appropriate measures anymore, more flexible approaches towards flooding are promising developments for the future.However, IFM is not limited to managing the flood hazard itself. Other factors can contribute to or mitigate the risk of a flood disaster. Vulnerability, capacity and adaptation characteristics of communities are important components in risk definition and require similar attention in terms of analyzing threats and opportunities for improvement. The disaster risk index is applied to conduct a quantitative flood risk assessment, within the existing and projected climate change scenario.

It is stressed that although the hazard component of flooding is something we cannot do much about, many opportunities are available in the fields of exposure and vulnerability reduction, and with the increase of community capacity. An integrated approach towards flooding is successful because with a coordinated management, measures can be developed that contribute to more than one sector alone. IFM acknowledges the complex conditions in which risks are shaped, and includes long-term coordinated planning whereby sustainability issues in relation with climate change are approached. Keywords: integrated flood management, disaster risk index, floods, Vietnam Use of crowdsourcing in post-disaster damage

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with event-related information including a festival program and point-of-interest-maps was offered. During the event, we received location updates from >800 festival attendees. The city of London Police used the visualizations to monitor the event. To understand the usefulness of our system, we learned through expert interviews that our approach helps to assess occurring crowd conditions and to spot critical situations faster compared to video-based methods. With that, appropriate measure can rapidly be deployed, helping to resolve a critical situation.

Keywords: crowd behavior sensing, mobile phones, participatory sensing, ubiquitous computing, crowd management The need for developing a culture of earthquake shelters to render early warning useful WYSS, Max WAPMERR, Switzerland Presenting author: WYSS, Max [email protected] Seismologists have developed techniques to estimate location and magnitude of large earthquakes before they have finished rupturing. Based on the resulting early warnings, trains can be stopped and processes in critical facilities may be interrupted before the damaging seismic waves arrive. Many large cities are located so close to active faults that warnings of approaching strong shaking may give only about five seconds lead time. This means that residents cannot make use of early warnings to reach a safe location, unless they install an Earthquake Shelter Unit (ESU) in their apartment. We envision the ESU to be constructed of steel in a corner of a large room in an apartment. If the apartment building is of a type with low to medium resistance to shaking (B to D on the EMS98 classification) and the ESU is of F type (strongest), then we estimate that the probability of survival in case of intensity ten shaking is increased 30,000 to 3,000 fold, respectively. ESUs could become available commercially, as tornado shelters are now, for approximately $5,000, a small price to pay for surviving a disastrous earthquake. ESUs could serve individual families or several families on a single floor in an apartment building, as well as the workforce on each floor of an office building. The early warning could come from a professional organization or the first-arriving, low-amplitude P-wave may be the signal to dash into the earthquake closet before the strong shaking of the S-wave arrives. EPUs will contain survival gear. Falls alarms can easily be tolerated because to step into an EPU located in one’s own apartment is a minimal disturbance of one’s daily routine. We should develop a culture of earthquake awareness and preparedness that includes EPUs. Keywords: seismic risk, human losses, preparedness Urban security based on IOT YAN, Lijun Shanghai Normal University, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: YAN, Lijun [email protected] First the basic characteristics and architectures of the Internet of Things(IOT) are described, then the presentation introduces some practical applications of the technologies

for risk assessment and then has widely been used in global (Chen Q. et al, 1999), country (Wang X. et al 2004) or urban level (Teramo A., 2005; Liu J. et al, 2006). But because of the lack of empirical seismic vulnerability relationship in higher seismic intensity (MMI IX or greater) area, there exists market uncertainty for the seismic risk assessment in the area. Wang X. et al (2011) have developed a new method to determine statistically the empirical seismic vulnerability relationship based on the macroeconomic indicators in the MMI VI-XI areas.

The paper introduces the new method to determine the seismic vulnerability model (SVM) in the case that the only total loss and the seismic intensity map are known. An empirical SVM determined by using the catastrophe earthquakes in Asia since 1970. The seismic risk in the 10 key research regions in Asia in the next 10 years has also estimated and introduced in the paper combined with researches such as the estimation of possible location and magnitude of the potential larger earthquakes (Ms>=7.0), the distribution exposure data such population and GDP et al. The method and results will be discussed in the paper. Keywords: Seismic vulnerability, higher seismic intensity, macroeconomic indicators, risk assessment in Asia. A novel participatory sensing method for monitoring crowd conditions by collecting GPS location traces from pedestrians' mobile phones for real-time crowd management during city-scale mass gathering WIRZ, Martin (1); FRANKE, Tobias (2); MITLETON-KELLY, Eve (3); ROGGEN, Daniel (1); LUKOWICZ, Paul (2); TRÖSTER, Gerhard (1) 1: ETH Zurich, Switzerland; 2: University of Passau, Germany; 3: London School of Economics, UK Presenting author: WIRZ, Martin [email protected] City-wide mass events are popular gatherings in human societies all over the world. It is of top priority for event organizer to maintain a high standard of safety. However, the risk of dangerous crowd situations cannot be eliminated completely. Thus, there is a need for security personnel to detect critical crowd situations at an early stage to deploy adequate safety measures for resolving it. This requires real-time crowd behavior information. Existing video-based monitoring systems face various disadvantages such as poor low-light performance, time-consuming manual evaluation and, it remains challenging to automatically extract information from videos. For crowd monitoring, we see a big potential in inferring crowd behavior patterns by tracking the location of attendees via their mobile phones. The high distribution of location-aware mobile phones and the acceptance to share location information enables such an approach. We introduce methods based on pedestrian-behavior models to infer crowd condition patterns from GPS traces. In particular, we focus on detecting crowd density, turbulence, velocity and pressure. We further present an approach to visualize the extracted information as an easy-to-read heat map. During the 2010 Lord Mayor’s Show in London we deployed a system able to infer and visualize crowd behavior patterns in real-time from location updates provided by attendees. To motivate them to share their location information, a mobile festival app that provides users

SoTech Risks an important context to be taken into consideration YAVAR, Bijan Millennium Enlightened Planners Engineering Company (MEPCO), Iran, Islamic Republic of Presenting author: YAVAR, Bijan [email protected] According to disaster management context, all those social hazards triggering technological disasters are SoTech in other words hazards which are social based and finally ended up and causes technological disasters as secondary disasters are called SoTechs.Technological risks and any subsequent risks that are triggered or made worse by the impact of social hazards are named SoTech Risks. As we all may know risks not recognized is much more dangerous then uncontrolled risks. Some times in international level there are politicians who try and tend to hide the risks which may effect the people's lives and not speak about them because it threatens their own social and political status.This subject is most important especially when we are speaking about superpowers. In this paper we will at first focus on those social risks which can cause technological disasters and their categories and take into consideration that they can be caused from outside a country, region or whatsoever. Then based on statistics we will show that although some of the SoTech Risks show to cause less casualties and dead people in each event in comparison with NaTech Risks but totally because of the higher weekly or monthly periodically rate of occurrence in relation to frequency. It shall be of higher importance and special actions should be taken into consideration, which one of them is trying to reveal the hidden risks which tend to be hidden. Finally as a conclusion the ways to facing SoTech Risks and reducing their harmful causes which are less in attention, will be suggested as an outcome which can be a good experience for reducing risks. Keywords: SoTech,Social risks,Technological risks,risks,Disaster Risk Management,DRM Progress and new initiatives in IRG project/IHDP YE, Qian Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People's Republic of Presenting author: YE, Qian [email protected] IRG-project was formally launched in Beijing, China on May 11, 2011. With about 11 new initiatives (several have been funded) that were developed in 2011 (the details shown in section 3), IRG-project comprises a multi-institutional, interdisciplinary team of natural scientists, social scientists, engineers, policy makers as well educators around the world who have come together to develop and apply theoretic, mathematic and computational tools for the decision making processes in the case of very large-scale disasters around the globe. To make our IRG-Project stand out from many existing risk related international academic organizations and international and national government sponsored programs, our science team has taken all possible opportunities to promote ourselves by co-sponsoring and attending other international activities including workshops, conferences and community network development. Meanwhile, a designated international journal for the IRG-project has been approved by Chinese government, which provides us an excellent

of the IOT which offer capabilities to identify and connect worldwide physical objects into a unified system, such as the applications of electronic tickets, mobile payment, waste disposal, urban emergency medical IOT , preventing invasion in Shanghai World Expo.

On the basis of powerful fiber-optic network and the technology of Wi-Fi, Mesh and WiMAX, with further extension, wireless broadband network can be built. At the same time, wireless broad base station will cover the whole city. And with the rapid development of IOT, it is a good opportunity for preventing disasters and improving urban security. IOT can make the focus of preventing disasters moved forward and transfer gradually from aiding after disasters to preventing primarily. It bring us revolutionary shift. By using Wireless Sensor Networks, RFID, IPR and Remote Location, we can get early warning of the environments hazard, residents and facilities of our cities. Founding network and computer system to collect and process information can enhance the automation and security of our cities.

Finally, some problems about IOT in the application of urban security are discussed. For example, we must take into consideration how to improve the reliability and validity of the data collection and transmission in the harsh climate environment, and how to ensure data transmission stability in some extreme environmental conditions etc. Keywords: Internet of Things,early warning,urban security,wireless sensor networks Application of FMEA and HFMEA Techniques as Risk Assessment Tools for contingency Planning YARMOHAMMADIAN, Mohammad Hossein (1); ATIGHECHIAN, Golrokh (2) 1: Health Management and economic research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Tehran University of Medical Sciences Presenting author: YARMOHAMMADIAN, Mohammad Hossein [email protected] Nowadays, most of organizations are interested to design and develop contingency plans for their organizations. Health care organizations are among most critical ones to make reasonable decisions about develop such plans that identify most probable risks, their modes and effects as well as determine appropriate techniques and models as tools for assessing RPNs of risks and prioritize them and design and develop practical and rigor contingency plans to response better during disasters and aftermath. One of most important techniques as " Failure Modes and Effects Analysis " (FMEA) and special version of it for health care organizations " Health Failure Modes and Effects Analysis" (HFMEA) tries to help managers and planners of health sector to be good practitioners in this field. Aim of this session is to train health services managers and hospital CEOs to conceptualize framework of contingency plans as well as improve their capacity for assessing risks and managing them through designing and developing contingency plans for their organizations. comparison between two versions of this technique is also other goal of this session. Keywords: Risk Assessment

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Research on region regularity of disaster chains in Gansu Province China YU, Han (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2,3); SHI, Qinqing (2,4); YIN, Yuanyuan (1,2) 1: School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2: Research Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 3: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 4: Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA Presenting author: YU, Han [email protected] In Northwest China, Gansu Province is a cross section of the Tibetan Plateau, Inner Mongolia Plateau, Loess Plateau and Xinjiang Arid Regions. Due to complex disaster environments, Gansu suffered from multi-hazards and natural hazard chains frequently. On 7th August 2010, the extreme rainstorm-landslide-debris flow caused 1501 dead and 264 missed in Zhouqu County of South Gansu, which raised both public and scientific attention on natural disaster chains-effect. This paper built and defined approximately 30 different chain-types of Gansu during 60 years based on the Gansu Natural Hazard Database (1949-2010). We found: (1) annually there’re average 1.5 disaster chains in Gansu. They are complex and various because Gansu is a transition zone of multiple geographic units. The common chain-types are rainstorm-hail-flood, rainstorm-snow, flood-waterlogging, snow-frost-cold, and seism-landslide-debris flow. Rainstorm, flood and cold-wave induced chains are the top three with percentage of 68%, 16% and 6% respectively; (2) The occurrences of disaster chains in this region have a large spatial-temporal differentiation. Rainstorm and flood induced chains frequently appear during July and August at the edge of the East Asian monsoon with unstable rainfall, including South Gansu mountain and East Gansu loess plateau. Cold-wave induced chains centralize at East Gansu loess plateau during March and April. Drought chains distribute mainly at East Gansu loess plateau in spring and early summer. Seism chains locate at South Gansu mountains; (3) The case analysis of 2010 Zhouqu disaster chain reveals that damages increased with the vulnerability accumulation of disaster-affected body, and the domino-effects amplified the loss, which often turn into catastrophe; (4) East Gansu loess plateau, South Gansu mountain and Gansu Corridor are the high-risk area, so more attention should be paid in these areas. This paper characterizes natural hazard chains and provides a fundamental reference for the integrated risk governance and regional disaster mitigation. Keywords: Natural hazards chain, Natural hazards, Spatio-temporal regularity, Zhouqu debris flow, Gansu China Investigating weather parameters affecting snow avalanching in Alborz Mountains, Iran. ZARE BIDAKI, Rafat (1); LEHNING, Micheal (2) 1: Shahrekord university, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: WSL,Switzerland Presenting author: ZARE BIDAKI, Rafat [email protected] Snow avalanches are significant natural hazards. The Karaj-Chalus road is placed in central Alborz Mountains. Every winter we encounter snow avalanches on this road. There is a limited amount of recorded avalanche data and weather data

opportunity to share our up-to-date research results and the IRG-project’s activities with the international risk research community. One of the purposes of establishing the Integrated Risk Governance Project (IRG-Project) is to provide network and platform support to share models, data sets, knowledge and open source technologies, as well as to coordinate the training and dissemination of these tools to the international risk governance research and education community. Based on the past three years’ experience of conducting an International Summer Institute on Disaster Risk Sciences at BNU at Beijing Normal University, a call for developing a global university consortium for integrated risk governance has been initiated recently by several universities. In 2011, IRG-project has made substantial progress with a focus on forging alliances around the world to assure that the efforts of the planned research foci were well integrated toward the attainment of common and specific goals. Keywords: Integrated risk governance; New initiatives; Outcome; Interdisciplinary; Outreach

Rural areas in Turkey and their reasons being vulnerable YILMAZ, Didem Gunes QUEENS UNIVERSITY BELFAST, United Kingdom Presenting author: YILMAZ, Didem Gunes [email protected] Many researchers state that 92% of land of Turkey is on high seismic risk area, thus 95% of total population is under risk of earthquakes. They also draw attention to life loss in the last 60 years and financial loss due to collapses of buildings. Memorable earthquakes in the last two decades in Turkey are: Erzincan earthquake in 1992, which had a magnitude of 6.8. This tremor destroyed or damaged 5500 buildings and caused 544 fatalities including central and rural areas and 728 serious injuries. Another memorable earthquake was in Bingol in 2003, with a magnitude of 6.2 and resulted in 177 deaths and 520 injuries. It is also reported that 56% of all building stocks became unavailable to use in the entire province and more notable case is, only in three village 398 building units were reported as heavily damaged. Very recently, 2011, two seperate earthquake stroke the province of Van. 644 people lost their lives and 31% of building stocks, including central and rural areas, were damaged heavily by two tremors. The common features of the earthquakes above-mentioned is that all happened in Eastern Turkey and all affected mainly rural settlements and communities. After 1970s the policy of urbanization accelerated throughout the country, but livelihood depending on farming and animal husbandry and other cultural factors make people staying in their rural settlements and environments. In some provinces of Turkey, almost 50% of the communities live in rural areas. In rural areas, people build their shelter mainly with local materials and traditional techniques by themselves respect to low cost and protect theirselves and animals from bad weather. Since they do not consider any seismic loads or have any engineering consultation when they build their units, when an earthquake happens they face the risk of losing their shelters or their lives. Keywords: Turkey, rural settlements, housing, earthquakes

for this area. This research reported here is an investigation on weather the data is sufficient to characterize conditions of avalanching for the area. Thus we compared avalanche days (107 avalanche days were recorded during the winters 1986-2006) and non avalanche days with respect to weather data that are recorded at the Karaj weather station.

Comparing variances shows that snow depths in avalanche days and non avalanche days are significantly different. Precipitation on the 2-3 days before avalanche days release significantly differs from normal days. Snow water equivalent expected for the location of the weather station (2000 m a.s.l) is 98, 86 and 72 mm for 300, 100 and 30 year return period respectively.

Mean and maximum air temperatures on avalanche days and the day before are significantly different. Air temperature on avalanche days is significantly higher than normal winter days consistent with the observation that exclusively wet snow avalanches occur. Also the other weather parameters, sunshine, relative humidity and mean air pressure significantly differ between avalanche days and non-avalanche days.

Max and mean wind speeds on avalanche days and 2-3 days before are significantly higher than on non avalanche days and appear to have an important affect on avalanching. Also the results show that the most identifying parameter on avalanche days is temperature.

In general, weather parameters have important roles in avalanche release timing and these first results can be used to construct a simple statistical model of avalanche prediction. Keywords: avalanche, snow, weather parameters.

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with the ultimate goal of promoting sustainable development by reducing the impacts of natural disasters in high-risk countries.

With the mission of providing “Better risk information for sound decision making”, GRIP’s objectives are twofold: 1) To improve disaster risk information and understanding; and 2) To increase application of disaster risk information in public policy/ decision making processes.

UNDP has commissioned a forward-looking evaluation of the Program, which is being conducted by an independent evaluator. The purpose of this independent evaluation is to systematically i) review progress and achievements against its expected objectives and outcomes over the last five years, lessons learned, and challenges faced by the programme; ii) review the impact of GRIP’s activities and interventions at the national, regional and global levels within the wider context of disaster risk reduction efforts of UNDP and its partners and (iii) identify strategic opportunities for a continued engagement of UNDP and its partners in risk identification related efforts.

Session’s Objectives:- To present interim results of the independent evaluation of UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP);- To discuss the evaluation results through a panel representing the various stakeholders, including donors, partners, beneficiaries and UNDP Country Offices;- To help produce recommendations based on the discussion on how work done through GRIP can better support the countries’ risk assessment needs.

Expected outputs- A better understanding of UNDP’s GRIP contributions to improving countries’ understanding of their disaster risks and of feasible, effective mitigation options- A set of recommendations on how the international community, in general, can better assist countries with their risk assessment needs and demands.- A set of recommendations on strategic opportunities for a continued engagement of UNDP and its partners in risk identification related efforts. Keywords: Disaster Risk assessment, decision making, capacity development, UNDP, GRIP Tackling risk in agriculture CASTLE, Paul; ZHOU, Yuan Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland Chair(s): ZHOU, Yuan [email protected] Farmers worldwide face a wide variety of risks. These include climate and weather, pests and diseases, and natural catastrophes. These can cause fluctuations in production, which damage livelihoods and contribute to consumer price volatility. The burden of risk is particularly heavy for smallholders in developing countries. However, more solutions are becoming available.

Smallholders and their business partners tackle risks in many ways. More informal approaches include crop diversification

Special Swiss Re session on financial tools for disaster risk management BAUR, Esther Swiss Reinsurance Ltd Chair(s): BAUR, Esther [email protected] The costs of natural disasters represent a growing burden for governments and societies in developing and emerging countries. In 2011, the total economic losses to society due to disasters reached a record high of USD 370 billion in 201 , of which only about USD 116 billion was insured. In developing countries this gap between insured and total economic losses tends to be much wider. Risk mitigation and risk transfer must go hand in hand to make societies more resilient. This session will discuss innovative insurance solutions on macro (government) and micro (low-income households) level to close the financing gap, and it will explore what is needed to mainstream financial tools for disaster risk management. Keywords: Financial Tools for Risk Management (Swiss Re Session) The evaluation of UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme – Analyzing the results and findings of a forward looking evaluation process BUHNE, Neil (1); OSUNA MILLÁN, José Guadalupe (2); GHESQUIERE, Francis (3); WIRTZ, Angelika (4); STOESSEL, Franz (5); VANDYCK, Rafael (6); LEON, Esteban (7); VILLACIS, Carlos (8); REGO, Loy (9) 1: UNDP-BCPR; 2: Government Baja California State, Mexico; 3: GFDRR Secretariat; 4: Munich Reinsurance Company; 5: Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC; 6: UNDP-Mexico; 7: UN-Habitat; 8: UNDP-GRIP; 9: Independent Evaluator for GRIP Chair(s): BUHNE, Neil;[email protected]; OSUNA MILLÁN, José Guadalupe; [email protected]; GHESQUIERE, Francis; [email protected]; WIRTZ, Angelika; [email protected]; STOESSEL, Franz; [email protected]; ANDYCK, Rafael; [email protected]; LEON, Esteban; [email protected]; VILLACIS, Carlos; [email protected]; REGO, Loy, [email protected] During the period 2003 to 2005, the UNISDR Secretariat constituted several working groups to address specific thematic issues related to disaster risk reduction. One of these, Working Group III (WGIII) focused on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact Assessment. WGIII was chaired by UNDP and brought together a range of stakeholders from the national, regional and international levels. The Working Group undertook several comparative studies on risk and vulnerability indexing, disaster databases and their applications for risk reduction. While recognizing the global progress on risk identification techniques and their applications, WGIII identified several gaps and recommended the establishment of a global initiative to address some of these gaps. In January 2005, the World Conference for Disaster Reduction in Kobe agreed on the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) for disaster risk reduction. One of the five priority areas of action of HFA relates to risk assessment and early warning systems.

Building on the work of the Working Group III, and responding to HFA Priority 2, UNDP established the Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) in 2007. GRIP also responds to key result areas of the UNDP strategic plan. Hosted by UNDP, GRIP is a multi-stakeholder initiative

and has shaped the development agenda and its policies over the last few years. The term is particularly used in the context of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and adaptation to climate change (ACC) and is often considered as the binding force linking development, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. When referring to resilience, it is meant that a community, nation and system is able to anticipate, absorb and recover from the effects of a hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvements of its essential basic structures and functions (SREX 2012) and ideally to bounce back better (DFID 2011).

As a response, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (Humanitarian Aid) and a number of Swiss NGOs initiated in July 2010 a dialogue on the importance of DRR in development and humanitarian work. In this context, the Swiss NGO DRR Platform was founded some months later led by three Swiss NGOs (HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation, Caritas Switzerland and Swiss Red Cross) and comprises today nine members (Medair, Solidar, HEKS, Terre des hommes (Tdh), World Vision and ProActNet).

The vision of the Swiss NGO DRR Platform is to increase the resilience of women and men, communities and governments to all aspects of DRR and ACC. Its main goal is to better adapt to climate trends and shocks, to more effectively mitigate risks and enhance prevention of risks in their humanitarian and development oriented endeavours.

The objective of the event is to discuss ways how Swiss NGOs deal with resilience building through DRR interventions and especially how learning can contribute to strengthening resilience.

Approach / ProgrammeThe session starts with the presentation of three case studies that will cover the following themes:

Caritas Switzerland: Strengthening resilience at community level by linking up community DM structures with Government DM structures - Bangladesh

Swiss Red Cross: Building community resilience by integrating disaster risk reduction and health system strengthening – Honduras

HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation: DRR in social and fragile contexts - Afghanistan

Based on the three case studies, key principles for resilience building will be shared for strengthening and devising more resilient project interventions. For all three organisations respectively in all three case studies, the following principles are at the core of their intervention:- Capacity building: knowledge and ability to learn are key for DRM and ACC.- Organisation: strengthening of existing structures at the local level by facilitating linkages between community-based organisations and local authorities.- Multi-stakeholder: involvement of all stakeholders in the process is a precondition to reduce potential risks.

and off-farm work; among the formal management mechanisms are agricultural insurance and better use of natural resources and other farm inputs.

Considerable attention currently focuses on risks related to climate. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and severe droughts and floods seriously harm agricultural output and farmers’ livelihoods. Weather-indexed insurance has recently gained considerable popularity. “Kilimo Salama” is an insurance product designed specifically for African smallholders. It uses mobile phones and automated weather stations to help keep the insurance affordable and scalable.

Appropriate water management can also mitigate the impacts of climate variability, particularly on rain-fed agriculture in drier areas. On-farm and community measures include rainwater harvesting and advanced irrigation techniques.

Developing country smallholders also face crop losses from pests and disease; as with many other challenges, they share this problem with farmers worldwide. Sustainable modern responses include improved plant breeding, biological controls and Integrated Pest Management. However, not all pests and diseases can always be adequately controlled.

Price volatility affects smallholders both as producers and consumers; many are net buyers of food. Countries have reacted to recent periods of surging food prices in different ways. Some of these methods are more successful than others.

This Parallel Session, hosted by the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, features a number of approaches to agricultural risk management. Speakers will focus on the above-named topics with specific examples and engage in debate with the audience.

The speakers and their presentation titles are listed below:

• Rose Goslinga: Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable AgricultureTitle: Insuring Kenya smallholders against weather: Kilimo Salama• Partha DasGupta: Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable AgricultureTitle: Reducing water use in farming: examples from India• Brion Duffy: AgroscopeTitle: Management strategies for invasive plant disease: Fire blight, a global threat to pome fruit production and agro-forestry ecosystems• John Staatz: Michigan State UniversityTitle: Preventing and dealing with price volatility in West Africa Keywords: Agricultural Risk, climate risks, drought Strengthening resilience in the context of learning and transformation CLOT, Nicole (1); STOLZ, Nicole (2); JOEHR, Anton (3) 1: Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation; 2: Caritas Switzerland; 3: Swiss Red Cross, Switzerland Chair(s): CLOT, Nicole [email protected] The term “resilience” has increasingly gained importance

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time early warning and prediction science and technology along with communication specialists in conjunction with DRR stakeholders within the field and Administrations responsible within vulnerable countries to create strategies, contingency plans and crisis coordination in reaction to receiving real time early warnings and reliable predictions. Whereas it is accepted that each sovereign country will experience its own challenges when handling early warning information, it is also recognised that due to the need for global cross border warning systems, a common strategy is now necessary to address technological advances available now, that until recently were only science fiction. Upon achieving the science, we now need to understand and agree on how to use it through the development of a clear, practical and acceptable action plan involving administrations, industry, critical infrastructure, media and communities along with the systems development designers. Keywords: Seismic, EarlyWarning, Prediction, Communication, Preparation Integrated risk assessment: what kind of multi-risk analysis to support the risk reduction decision-making process? DIMAURO, Carmelo; BOUCHON, Sara RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of Chair(s): DIMAURO, Carmelo;BOUCHON, Sara [email protected];[email protected] and technological disasters that occurred in the world during the last decades showed an increased vulnerability of our society to different types of risks. These disasters acted as revelators of a greater exposure of the territories to multi-risk situations, i.e. situations where multiple hazardous sources can potentially impact multiple vulnerable elements. Decision-makers aiming at implementing a risk disaster reduction strategy face the challenge to deal, not only with one type of risk, but most often, with several types of risks that can potentially impact-separately or in combination- their territory of competency. Furthermore, they have typically to take into account other constraints such as budget restrictions, stakeholders’ requirements, political agendas etc.

As a consequence, risk management and civil protection authorities need to be supported, in order to define sustainable and integrated risk management practices. Risk management activities (prevention, mitigation, crisis management and recovery) require appropriate supports, tools and methodologies addressing these issues, with respect to the governance principle.

This session aims therefore at addressing the questions raised by the development of integrated risk management practices and multi-risk analysis and, in particular, how these can support the risk reduction decision-making process. This includes the discussion of the following issues: (1) A conceptual issue: there is a need to shift from single risk assessments, too often based on a hazard-centric perspective, towards integrated risks assessments, aiming at capturing the complexity of distributed hazards and vulnerable exposed elements over a territory. (2) A methodological issue: a multi-risk approach requires comparing and integrating hazards,

- Intersectoral approach: Holistic approaches tackle the root causes of vulnerability and therefore contribute positively to development benefits in the immediate term, risk and vulnerability reduction in the long term.

Following the case studies is a brief of the main findings of the SREX related to learning and transformation. The aspect of learning is one of the key principles identified in all three case studies and is indeed crucial in development and humanitarian work. Learning as a process has as well particularly been highlighted in the recently published Special Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX 2012).

The concluding session, stimulated by the case studies and the brief, will then draw particular attention to the aspect of learning and transformation at different levels and will The focus of the discussion is: what were the key moments and methods that allowed to learn, what was learned, how and when systems, processes or organisations transformed? What are current constraints which hamper this learning and transformation? What are favouring and supporting mechanisms? Keywords: Resilience, learning and transformation, disaster risk reduction The evolution of seismic ‘real time’ early warning and ‘reliable’ seismic prediction’ science DE LA POMERAI, Garry VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom Chair(s): DE LA POMERAI, Garry [email protected] Session Background: Within recent years the development of ‘real time seismic early warnings’ has expanded considerably , developing state of art communications and dynamic data collation systems with instantaneous real time alarm options. The state of art technology now allows us to reliably communicate ahead of destructive seismic waves into homes offices and critical infrastructure including hospitals, schools, administrations, military and emergency services and disaster coordination centres. Reliable Seismic prediction science now offers the perfect combination for the whole of earthquake vulnerable society. However this newly achieved reliability presents a variety of challenges within the same society for both governments and the individual at home. Whilst technology advances, the social science of knowing how to prepare communities to receive and respond to seismic alarms is only just unfolding.

Session Objectives: We shall review the seismic real time early warning and reliable seismic prediction technology; explain the challenges within communications; and discuss the need for preparing society to receive seismic real time early warnings and reliable predictions potentially up to five days in advance of an event; the session will introduce a suggested new strategy for combining and using real time early warning systems and reliable seismic prediction information within society.

Session Aims & Outcomes: It is intended to develop a wider collaboration of stakeholders involved within the seismic real

22301 for Business Continuity Management

Insurance companiesSalvador E., Multirisk approach and tools to support companies Risk managers, AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants

Risk ConsultantsDimauro C., Bouchon S., User requirements assessment to support the integrated risk management decision-making process, Risk Governance Solutions, Italy Keywords: Integrated risk, multi-risk assessment, decision-making process, decision-support systems Global exposure monitoring for multi-hazards risk assessments DOLCE, Mauro (1); EHRLICH, Daniele (2) 1: Bureau for Seismic and Volcanic Risk, Italian Civil Protection Department; 2: Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy, Republic of Chair(s): DOLCE, Mauro;EHRLICH, Daniele [email protected];[email protected] Disaster risk analysis is used for estimating potential future disaster and losses, and a guiding mechanism for implementing disaster risk reduction measures. Through international advocacy initiatives such as the ISDR promoted Hyogo protocol, an increasing number of countries are now including disaster risk analysis in their policies. However, the implementation of these policies requires knowledge that is not always available. Datasets, models and tools used in disaster risk assessment are often not available especially in low income countries where the information is needed most. A number of initiatives with a global scope are addressing this lack of data, of models, while other initiatives are already developing datasets and tools. In addition the research community is providing innovation that provides new opportunities for generating the required knowledge.

The session aims to provide an overview of the need for information on exposure, hazard and vulnerability, an overview on current international initiatives that address such needs and the challenges ahead.

The session will have four panellists. The first panellist will address the need for global multi risk modelling and thus the need to derive required exposure, vulnerability and hazard information. Panellist two and three will provide state of the art in exposure mapping and disaster risk modelling. The last panellist will provide an insight on future technological development that may be used to rapidly generate the missing datasets. Keywords: Exposure, Disaster Risk, Crisis Management Social media and linguistics as part of an integrative risk management EGGENBERGER, René (1); SCHANNE, Michael (2); ESMAIL, Zarah (3) 1: armasuisse, Switzerland; 2: Zurich University for Applied Sciences, Switzerland; 3: Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Germany

vulnerable elements, damages, and risks that are very different in nature. Hence, what kind of multi-risk analysis can be developed, taking into account the constraints posed by data availability, the choice of indicators, the limits of existing tools, etc.? (3) A political issue: a multi-risk assessment is not to be seen as an end in itself, but rather as a way to support the risk reduction decision-making process. The multi-risk assessment results, as well as the development of the multi-risk approach should meet the decision-makers requirements, and support the various stages of the risk management process, for instance, to have a better understanding of the variety of risks over a territory, to prioritize the risk reduction actions or to optimize the distribution of their resources, to facilitate the communication to stakeholders, etc.

The main objective of the session is to discuss how these issues can be tackled, with a particular emphasis on the fact that multi-risk assessment, not only raises technical and methodological challenges, but raises also the question of how the integrated risk management can/should support the risk reduction decision-making process.

Specific objectives of the session are: (1) To understand how a multi-risk analysis can be developed and implemented, i.e. how difficulties linked to methodologies, data, and tools can be overcome; (2) To explore the strong interactions between multi-risk assessment and the risk reduction process; (3)To stimulate the reflection among speakers and the audience about considering the integrated risk assessment within the larger framework of territorial and land-use planning management.

To answer these objectives, the session will invite speakers coming from different backgrounds, with the view to reflect the multi-disciplinary nature of these issues.

OutcomesThe expected outcomes of the sessions are:- To present case studies and examples of existing integrated risk management practices;- To provide the audience with increased awareness of issues related to the strong interactions between the multirisk analysis and the related decision-making process;- To give space to a debate on integrated risk management practices and their role within broader territory management.

List of participants:

Considering the multi-disciplinary nature of the topics, five presentations from Academia (2), decision-makers (1), insurance (1) and risk consultants (1) are planned.

Academia/ResearchFleming K, Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe: the MATRIX project, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Marcot N., Development of a multi-risk approach for the Pays A3V, France, BRGM-French Geological Survey Authorities

InstitutionsBrusamolino, L., Societal Security – the new standard ISO

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• to demonstrate the contribution of applied linguistics in real-life situations, especially in case of risk communication and communication on complex technical issues like nuclear risks, preventive measures and the conduct in case of an emergency• to identify and evaluate the influence of professional communication across the frontiers of language and the behaviour of using social media across the population on the resilience of our multicultural societies.

Expected Outcome:The session should• provide an overview on how social media were used during the Fukushima catastrophe• provide a blend of lessons learned and suggestions how to use social media systematically for risk communication and resilience building in our societies• line out the opportunities, challenges and limits of a better use of social media in favour of an enhanced resilience• contribute to a better understanding of linguistic and cultural factors affecting risk communication. Keywords: Resilience, Social Media, Communication, Integrative Risk Management, Culture Elsevier Author Workshop – How to write a scientific paper… and get it published EVE, Katherine Publisher, Elsevier Earth & Environmental Sciences Chair(s): EVE, Katherine [email protected] Topics to be covered:

• The changing publishing landscape• Why is it so important to write a GOOD paper?• What is a good manuscript?• How to write a good manuscript• Revision and response to reviewers• Ethical Issues• Content Innovation

Mobilising the creation of a risk governance culture FLORIN, Marie-Valentine (1); RENN, Ortwin (2); SCHRECKENBERG, Stephan (3); MOLIN-VALDES, Helena (4); PRIOR, Tim (5) 1: International Risk Governance Council (IRGC), Switzerland; 2: University of Stuttgart, Germany; 3: Swiss Reinsurance Company, Germany; 4: United Nations Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR); 5: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich (ETHZ), Switzerland Chair(s): RENN, Ortwin;SCHRECKENBERG, Stephan;MOLIN-VALDES, Helena;PRIOR, Tim [email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected] In a globalised and interdependent world, systemic risks can have far remote impacts. They challenge conventional risk management, which requires new concepts and tools to avoid the spread of risks between sectors and countries, and cascading chains of events. IRGC is interested in a number

Chair(s): EGGENBERGER, René;SCHANNE, Michael;ESMAIL, Zarah [email protected];[email protected];[email protected] Natural and manmade catastrophes are increasingly large scale and often affect major parts of our multilingual and intercultural societies. Authorities and citizens are facing threats that are new and fuzzy in quality and of impact. The higher the number of possible threats increases the prevention and reaction gets more complex. What actually means that it will become increasingly impossible to prepare a specific answer for each thinkable event? One approach to deal with the above outlined uncertainty is to build up a resilient society. Resilience may be defined in two different ways: In a technical sense it means to provide “robust” infrastructures and systems. “Political” solutions point at a more “robust”, say more “resilient” society. The planned session focuses on the latter understanding and tries to point out social, cultural and linguistic aspects of resilience building as part of an integrative risk management that predominantly bases on risk communication. Timely, professional and comprehensive risk communication that considers linguistic and cultural aspects as well as the exploitation of the potential of social media as well are keys towards a more resilient society. The authors believe – based on research at Zurich University of Applied Sciences and recent field studies – that there is still a huge unexploited potential to set free by using social medias systematically for risk and even crisis communication or for integration into alert conceptions as well. In addition the speakers highlight that it is important to integrate linguistic, cultural and demographic aspects of our societies into risk and crisis communication concepts. To reach at least the majority of people in our societies is the key to enhance resilience.

Therefore authorities, members of emergency agencies and security organizations, scientists and governmental employees are welcome to take part in this session and the follow up discussion.

The session aims to enhance the awareness of authorities and the public on the role of social media and their use to achieve a better communication from authorities to authorities, authorities to citizens and amongst themselves as well. The contribution of media studies and linguistics as scientific disciplines, and the socio-cultural aspects (demographic, cultural, linguistic, and religious) are highlighted as important factors to enhance the resilience of our multilingual and multicultural modern societies.

Description of the SessionIt is planned to provide four presentations after a brief introduction by the chairman followed by a panel discussion and a later integration of the audience. The session focuses on the following objectives:

• to provide an analysis of the use and the role that social media played during the Fukushima catastrophe (results of a field study)• to evaluate the potential of social media as an additional technical mean to improve the communication between authorities and citizens and amongst themselves as well

risk that they cause), increasing or changing vulnerabilities, unbalanced and unsustainable risk sharing (in communities, countries and even globally) and frequent lack of risk ownership (which prevents effective risk management). More specifically, the “spread” of moral hazard, the failure to take responsibility or be accountable, the lack of capacity to resolve trade-offs (in particular when conflicting economic interests or values are involved), require that risk governance is grounded on appropriate risk cultures.

This session will discuss how to improve the perception and understanding of risk in various cultures, countries and settings, and how to support the mobilisation, creation or proactive development of risk cultures, in order to create conditions for improved risk governance.

IRGC's project will aim to provide decision makers with elements (“building blocks”) that can be used in various and specific regional or local contexts to support appropriate risk governance cultures. More specifically, IRGC and its partners in this session will propose to engage in an awareness and capacity-building programme, targeting in priority local actors in emerging economies and developing countries, but involving also country wide actors that would co-determine the guiding principles and main elements of such a programme.

Risk governance requires multi-stakeholder and coordinated approaches, to provide different but complementary expertises and views. Invited speakers will thus develop various aspects of how to build appropriate risk governance cultures. Keywords: risk, governance, culture European critical infrastructures: which analysis framework for supporting effective decision making? GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios; FILIPPINI, Roberto Joint Research Centre, European Commission Chair(s): GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios;FILIPPINI, Roberto [email protected];[email protected] In the last decade, Europe started a number of initiatives for the protection of critical infrastructures. These initiatives are collected under the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection, a multi annual program elaborated in 2006 by the Justice and Home Affairs council. One of the legislative pillars of EPCIP is the European Council Directive 2008/114/EC, which sets the scope of critical infrastructure to the energy and the transportation sectors and it also defines the common criteria for identification and designation of European Critical Infrastructure (ECI) and the assessment of the need to improve their protection.

The EC Directive just entered a review process (January 2012) through which some of its statements and objectives are going to be reformulated. The Joint Research Centre is involved in this review process providing technical support. Within this framework JRC aims at proposing an analysis framework for ECIs. The objective of the analysis framework is primarily to serve decision makers and CI operators. A few requirements, which the framework should possess, are: (1) Ability to handle with complexity in a unique modelling

of aspects of risk governance of systemic risks, and we wish to discuss at this session at IDRC 2012 how different risk cultures coexist, can be better understood, can be improved and can cooperate;

we wish to mobilise the creation of appropriate risk cultures to stimulate improved risk governance.

The interdependence of risks within and between complex systems requires that risk assessment, communication and management are adapted to the new systemic nature of many risks, which may span across sectors and countries. This requires the collaboration between business, public authorities and the society. However, competition and conflicts of interests, whether economic, political or cultural, as well as divergent views on issues prioritisation, between business, governments and non-governmental organisations will determine the reality of future global risk management. The term of "risk governance" reflects the controversial nature of the endeavour. Sharing common cognitive risk perceptions or acknowledging the existence of different risk perceptions is therefore conditional for developing coordinated risk governance strategies.

The role of emerging economies and developing countries in the management of systemic risks is often underestimated. Risks emerging anywhere can span quickly to the entire world and affect vulnerable populations or assets. Investments in emerging economies and developing countries for creating effective risk policies, regulation and overall appropriate risk cultures can provide rapid and cost-effective returns, for the benefit of all. The mobilisation of appropriate risk governance cultures constitutes the backbone for sustainable development that helps to anticipate events in advance, prepare for adverse consequences and build resilience to unexpected events.

“Risk culture” refers to a shared set of beliefs, values and practices within an organisation regarding how to assess, address and manage risks. A major aspect of risk culture is how openly risks can be addressed and information about them shared among a risk community. Risk cultures will vary between organisations, according to their needs and circumstances. However, a good risk culture always produces a sound basis for deciding how the competing pressures for risk avoidance, risk reduction, risk transfer and risk taking are resolved.

The International Risk Governance Council (www.IRGC.org) aims to launch a work project, in cooperation with its regional network partners, to better understand and develop appropriate cultures for risk governance, relying on substantive and empirical regional analysis of the concept and notion of risk. The aim is to raise awareness and build capacity for improving risk governance in selected countries.

Background:The world is now facing a redefinition of risk or emerging risk concepts, of certain dimensions require innovative expertise. This includes: how to deal with interdependent risks within and between complex systems, how to make decision in context of uncertainty (especially with regard to new or increasing hazards and secondary consequences of the

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decade is that education and knowledge have the power to save lives. Education systems are vital for reducing the risk, strengthening resilience and supporting recovery from disasters. In particular, since vulnerability is not a ‘given’ but is variable depending on awareness, preparedness, anticipation and readiness to take action, education has a key role to play in disaster risk reduction (DRR). The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) also emphasized that education plays a crucial role in disaster prevention and promotes education for disaster reduction through the UNISDR Thematic Platform on Knowledge and Education (TPKE).

Learning about disaster risks in primary and secondary schools can make a contribution to saving lives of people. Quality education can provide life-saving and life-sustaining information and skills that protect children and young people during and after emergencies. What people know is more important than what they have when it comes to saving lives and reducing loss.

Therefore the inclusion of disaster risk reduction (DRR) components in curriculum, teacher education training and community learning, school management, and school infrastructure will increase the level of preparedness and protection of education systems and the resilience and preparedness level in disaster prone communities.

“Building a culture of safety and resilience at all levels”, which is one of the priorities of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015, explicitly calls for the “integration of disaster risk reduction as an intrinsic element of the United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005–2014).”The Hyogo Framework for Action also prioritizes strengthening disaster preparedness for effective response with recognition that impacts of disasters can be substantially reduced if we are well prepared and ready to act and are equipped with the knowledge and capacities for effective disaster management.

Governments and actors supporting the integration of disaster risk reduction in school curricula and management are thus seeking more systematic knowledge on what is already being done, whether the measures taken are successful, and how they might work to strengthen the promotion of DRR through formal and informal education.

The panel/side event will discuss different approaches to disaster risk reduction through education and present recent research, case studies as well as guidance instruments on the issue. These include: a) a study, commissioned by UNESCO and UNICEF, which researched present key national experiences in the integration of disaster risk reduction in the curriculum, identifying good practice, pointing out issues addressed and those still lacking in the curriculum, and reviewing learning outcomes; b) a schools safety baseline report recently developed by the ISDR Thematic Platform for Knowledge and Education revisits existing reports about all aspects of school safety, gathered from 80 countries, and refers to the key advocacy and guidance documents for school safety of the past 7 years to develop an analysis that reflects the best practices in achieving the

framework: The complexity of an infrastructure is in its architecture and in the heterogeneity of the components. A faithful representation would ask resorting to as many modelling frameworks as the number of sectors involved. The objective here is that of representing of the infrastructure within a unique modelling framework, cross-sector, complete and simple to apply. The idea is to abstract the representation to the (inter)dependencies that are established at the interface of every system. (2) Provide recommendations for the improvement of resilience: The analysis outcome has to meet the demand of decision makers and operators, timely and effectively. The recommendations will have to pinpoint the vulnerabilities that impair the resilience of the infrastructure, as these are perceived by the operators. The existence of a common modelling and analysis framework will also make it possible to assess the impact of the recommendations both in term of costs and benefits. (3): Perform the analysis in synergy with other analysis tools: The analysis framework should not be conceived as standalone but it can be integrated with other analysis tools. The idea is to perform the analysis in consecutive steps. For instance, the first step will return those scenarios (i.e. caused by failure propagation) that challenge the infrastructure resilience. The second step will select a number of these scenarios for further analysis, e.g. by assessing their risk, or simulating the quantities of interest.

The session will have the contribution of JRC, from the directive issues to the framework proposal as sketched in the background, and a number of contributions from experts in the field of critical infrastructures. The experts will provide their standpoint with respect to the EC viewpoint and present their own solution. The presented topics have to deal with every stage of the assessment process of a critical infrastructure, from the modeling to the analysis, including the representation of interdependencies, the identification of vulnerability, the resilience analysis and risk assessment.

The expected outcomes of the sessions are twofold: (1) provide a fairly complete state of the art for the assessment of critical infrastructures; (2) to share JRC (and EC) standpoint with the standpoints of the scientific community.

This session at IDRC Davos will be the first event organized by EC and JRC on the topic CI. The JRC (under the EC endorsement) intends fostering similar initiatives on a regular basis, at Davos or by other relevant events. In a longer run, JRC is considering the option of establishing a permanent EU center for the assessment (risk, resilience, interdependencies) of European critical infrastructure, in analogy with other existing initiatives (e.g. the ETH Risk Center and the IRGC CH). Keywords: European Critical Infrastructure, Risk Assessment, Resilience Education for disaster risk reduction HEISS, Julia (1); SIMONIAN, Guillaume (2) 1: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO); 2: United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Chair(s): HEISS, Julia [email protected] One of the most important lessons to emerge from the series of devastating disasters worldwide over the past

4.) the capacity to act on the warning, particularly at the local level.

Considering this a lot of emphasis is put into transmitting real time information to institutionalized decision-makers and strengthening government disaster management services. On the other hand the dissemination of community-based DRR initiatives recognize the central importance of investing at community level to conduct risk mapping, design community based disaster preparedness plans, create local response capacities and generate a culture of resilience and safety.

However, especially at local level, an effective interaction between different national and local institutional levels and at risk communities still remains a key challenge. Feedback mechanisms to verify that warnings have reached the local authorities and at-risk communities are partly nonexistent. Early warnings are accurate but not linked with adequate communication and timely response mechanisms. Understandable messages that could help in taking sensible decisions do not reach all communities or households, leaving the most vulnerable population ill-prepared to cope with hazards.

Heavy investments have been made in setting up early warning mechanisms, strengthening disaster management capacities and promoting community-based DRR initiatives during the last years. Therefore, the objective is not to repeat the need for each individual instrument especially in times of climate change, but to take a very close look on how exactly a strong interaction between both the community and government levels can be facilitated and maintained in managing early warning and being prepared for an effective and timely response. What does a strong interaction between both the community and government levels mean when it comes to activities in regions with weak institutional structures and limited resources?

The aim of the session is to give participants a concrete idea about how the effective interaction between early warning and response mechanisms from the institutional and community based level can be put into practice and maintained.

By the end of the session, participants will have developed a better understanding of:

• how links are established and maintained• what has worked / what has not worked and why• what challenges occur and which experience exists in overcoming theseThe overall approach is solution-oriented. Enough room will be given for discussions to foster peer-exchange.

Proposed session outline - Agenda

- Welcome and overview of agenda- Introduction - German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)- Setting the framework for linking early warning and timely response - Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)- Good practices and lessons-learned from the regional to the

goals of comprehensive school safety, and current concerns and recommendations of advocates and practitioners; c) a technical guidance instrument, currently being developed by UNESCO and UNICEF, will provide policy-makers and curriculum developers in governments, NGOs and UN agencies with guidance on how to effectively integrate DRR into school curricula.

Objectives

• Demonstrate the importance of education for disaster risk reduction• Discuss the opportunities and challenges of integrating disaster risk reduction into schools• Share experiences on DRR in school management and curricula• Launch the UNICEF/ UNESCO publication Disaster Risk Reduction in school curricula: case studies from thirty countries

Speakers:- David Selby, Founding Director, Sustainability Frontiers- Fumiyo Kagawa, Research Director, Sustainability Frontiers- Dmitri Kavtaradze, Director of the Chair of Ecology and Environmental- Preservation in the Academy of Social Affairs, Russian Federation.- Marla Petal, Author of the School Safety Baseline study- Ian Rodgers, Emergency Advisor, Disaster Risk reduction and preparedness at Save the Children- Guillaume Simonian, Programme Officer, Office of Emergency - Programmes, Preparedness & DRR Section; United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)- Daniel Kull, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)- Badaoui Rouhban, Director, Unit for Natural Disasters, UNESCO Keywords: Education, Curricula, school management, prevention “Taking preparedness seriously” – Revisiting the gaps and challenges in linking early warning and timely response between community and government levels HUPPERTZ, Stephan Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Germany, Federal Republic of Chair(s): HUPPERTZ, Stephan [email protected] Early warning systems are vital to disaster preparedness and timely response and should be an integral component of any nation’s disaster risk reduction strategy.

Having received significant international attention over the past years , many multi-hazard early warning systems (EWSs) are in operation today, at best enabling the governments at national to local levels and the communities to take appropriate measures for saving lives and protecting assets and livelihoods in anticipation of a disaster. For such systems to be effective, UNISDR stresses that four elements must be in place: 1.) accurate hazard warning; 2.) an assessment of likely risks and impacts associated with the hazard; 3.) a timely and understandable communication of the warning;

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[email protected];[email protected];[email protected] Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures to Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies is a crucial element of effective climate adaptation policies. Though there is a general understanding among policy makers of the importance of this linkage, translating concepts into practical operations is a challenge. Mainstreaming DRR into CCA strategies is a process that entails multiple level of coordination both horizontally (among governmental institutions, universities, civil society organizations, etc.) and vertically (from the central to the local/community level). This process – in the first place - requires a solid national legal framework in which institutional responsibilities and duties are established and defined.

Case studies on the legal and regulatory frameworks concerning national governance of climate related risks are still lacking. Nonetheless, there is a general recognition that national governments need to develop functional regulatory structures for adaptation funds to target the right risk reduction measures.

The aim of this session is to offer an overview on what countries and international/regional organizations are currently doing to address these gaps. Even though the focus will be on Europe, cases from other regions will be presented and discussed. Keywords: Governance, Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Management, Regional Platforms for DRR, National Platforms for DRR Increasing disaster resilience through participative development of standards in land management, urban planning and construction KATARIA, Shailesh (1); JOHNSON, Cassidy (2); MURRAY-JONES, Douglas (1) 1: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Disaster Mangement Commission, United Kingdom; 2: Development Planning Unit, University College London Chair(s): KATARIA, Shailesh [email protected]’s 2011 Global Assessment Report (GAR) emphasised that effective land use planning and building regulations are critical for reducing the risk from disasters. However, such standards and regulations are either deficient or inadequately enforced in most developing countries. Recent Red Cross research on regulatory frameworks in several countries also demonstrated that in every case, the largest single regulatory constraint to improving access to legal housing was overly complex and time-consuming administrative procedures.

Planning regulations, building codes and land tenure systems are often too demanding for many vulnerable groups or even prevents incremental development of shelter, which often makes safe land and shelter unavailable or unaffordable to them. Simultaneously, such complex regulations put too much pressure on the governing administration, which often lack human and financial resources necessary to secure their effective implementation. Therefore, increasing number of

local level

1) GITEWS - The German Contribution to the Indonesian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System: Experiences and Lessons learned

Presenter: German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) – Regional level

Main focus: The GFZ presents lessons learned from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean (GITEWS)

2) Integrated early warning and preventive response in Mozambique

Presenter: INGC Mozambique – National level:

Main focus: The DRM institute presents how a simple and effective low cost flood early warning system is linked to the national institutional level and elaborates on lessons-learned from the recent cyclone FUNSO that hit Mozambique in January 2012.

3) Low cost flood early warning systems based on linking local governments and communities in the Philippines

Presenter: PAGASA and GIZ, Philippines – Provincial level

Main focus: The presenter introduces the successfully established decentralized low cost flood early warning systems in the Eastern Visayas, Philippines and elaborates on the remaining challenges in scaling-up the system.

4) Bridging sustainably the last mile connectivity in India and Myanmar

Presenter: Malteser International, Myanmar and SSK Sahbhagi Shikshan Kendra India – District / Local level

Main focus: The presenter introduces the challenges and opportunities of linking inclusive social mobilization with early warning system on cyclone preparedness from a community perspective.

- Discussion/Q&A

- Closure Keywords: early warning, timely response, communication mechanisms, effective interaction, community and government level Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: a governance point of view INNOCENTI, Demetrio (1); PLA, Francesc (2); ZENTEL, Karl-Otto (3); MYSIAK, Jaroslav (4) 1: UNISDR Europe Regional Office; 2: Council of Europe; 3: European Forum for Disaster Risk Reduction; 4: FEEM Chair(s): INNOCENTI, Demetrio;PLA, Francesc;ZENTEL, Karl-Otto;MYSIAK, Jaroslav [email protected];

combine satellite/GIS land mapping along with community mapping and participatory land use planning techniques to improve construction of sustainable shelter and reduce flood risk.

The aim is to increase prioritisation for participative development and implementation of locally appropriate land management, urban planning and construction standards and regulations based on best practices including recent RICS DMC initiatives.

Outcomes: (1) Increased understanding of importance of participative development of land man-agement, urban planning and construction standards and regulations for increasing disaster resili-ence. (2) Jointly agreed strategies for increasing participatory development of standards and regulations as a means of improving the quality of such standards and their compliance in developing countries. (3) Improved linkages between governments, communities, civil society groups and also built environment professionals and the private sector for development of more effective standards to increase disaster resilience. Keywords: Participative, Standards, Land, Planning, Codes Natech risk reduction after the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (1); CRUZ, Ana Maria (2); TATANO, Hirokazu (3) 1: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; 2: Consultant, Natech risk management and emergency planning, France, and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Japan; 3: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan Chair(s): KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth;CRUZ, Ana Maria;TATANO, Hirokazu [email protected];[email protected];[email protected] The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March 2011 triggered several major Natech accidents, most notably crippling a nuclear power plant and causing the worst nuclear accident in recent times, as well as sparking multiple fires and explosions in major petrochemical complexes. Many critical infrastructures, e.g. power supply and communication, were severely damaged or destroyed which resulted in supply disruptions and in the case of the Fukushima nuclear power plant contributed to the nuclear disaster. This shows that infrastructure service interruptions can not only trigger or exacerbate a Natech accident but they can affect emergency-response efforts that depend on the availability of utilities. The March 2011 Natech events are of particular importance as they occurred in one of the best prepared countries in the world. Important lessons can be learned on the performance of existing Natech risk reduction measures in preventing or mitigating hazardous-materials releases, or the necessity for a more far-reaching management of Natech risk.

The proposed interdisciplinary session aims at addressing the questions raised by the occurrence of the Natech accidents during the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami to highlight the need for integrated risk management to make society more resilient. This includes the identification and

people are excluded from formal land and housing markets and forced into areas of greater risk and to build informally without basic services, which escalates their individual as well as wider communities’ exposure and vulnerability to hazards.

Problems due to ineffective land, planning and building regulations become particularly acute in urban areas. UN-HABITAT reports that informal settlements currently accommodate one third of world’s urban population, with numbers growing rapidly, especially in higher risk developing coun-tries.

RICS Disaster Management Commission’s (DMC) initiatives have focused on identifying and promoting best practices from around the world for improving land management, urban planning and construction, including that for non-engineered buildings and informal settlements in Malawi, Haiti and Kenya.

The learning from these experiences has emphasised the critical importance of shifting away from ‘policing’ rigid technical models to a more ‘motivational’ model for promoting compliance. That re-quires more participative development of such standards with multi-stakeholder groups including government officials, private sector, civil society groups representing communities, as well as built environment professionals, and a much greater focus on increasing awareness and building local capacities.

The broad objective is to involve participants of GRF (governments, private sectors, NGOs, interna-tional development agencies, professional bodies, etc) to explore strategies for increasing prioritisation of such ‘motivational’ and participative approaches in development of standards that are more accessible, especially for more vulnerable groups in developing countries.

In Malawi, RICS DMC supported the Malawi government’s initiative to participatively develop Guidelines for Safe Construction of non-engineered homes which involved a variety of stakeholders including vulnerable communities, informal builders, built environment professionals, private sector and civil society groups. The success of this participative model can also enable more effective development of formal building codes, urban planning and land management regulations for Malawi.

In Haiti, RICS DMC advocated for participative development and implementation of locally appropri-ate building codes, including initiatives for retrofitting social infrastructure (especially schools) long before the devastating earthquake of 2010. That focused on providing technical assistance to the Haitian government, as well as promoting development of a local civil society platform to advocate for participative development of building codes and guidelines for non-engineered structures and prioritisation of ‘motivational’ (awareness raising, training, etc.) means for increasing compliance.

In Kenya, RICS DMC provided built environment and mapping professionals to work with local com-munities to

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was signed between Republic of Turkey and International Bank of Construction and Development. Istanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU) has been established within Istanbul Governorship, Special Provincial Administration to implement the Project. The activities of ISMEP Project are being implemented under the three components: (1) Enhancing Emergency Preparedness Capacity; (2) Seismic Risk Mitigation for Critical Public Buildings; and (3) Building Code Enforcement. The recent accomplishments of the ISMEP Project can be cited as reinforcement of more than 555 schools, 17 health facilities and 7 dormitories; establishment of Disaster Management Center under the coordination of the Istanbul Governorship and disaster awareness campaigns and training activities for decision makers, technical staff and community representatives that the project has already reached to 350.000 people and about five million training materials have been delivered to Istanbul residents. At the agreement period of the ISMEP Project, the project was planned to be completed by 31th of March 2010 with a budget of €310 Million. However, the outcomes of the project were so efficient, applicable and tangible that new funds were provided to sustain and disseminate activities. Consequently, the budget of the ISMEP Project has reached to approximately €970 Million with a time extension until 2015.

The ISMEP project has been launched as a best practice to enhance the resilience capacity of communities through structural, institutional and social reinforcement providing the linkages and integration among them. Even the name of the project refers Istanbul as the case, the developed methodology, implementation tools and dissemination activities have expanded through the other provinces of Turkey.

Today, we know that several high populated cities are facing natural threats and they are working hard to reduce risks and to increase public awareness which would support mitigation activities. Despite of differentiations in all features of world countries, our global aim is to enhance resilience and as well as quality of life on this earth. Therefore, this special session is proposed not only to promote the ISMEP Project but also to share experiences in using/creating opportunities and in dealing with overcome/existing challenges. The expected outputs of the proposed session are to improve implementation tools in disaster risk reduction in an international platform and to contribute in building and then sustaining resilient communities with a multi-perspective applicable road map. Keywords: Risk reduction, awareness, critical facilities, disaster management, resilience Resilient development practice – from fragmentation towards integration; from theory into action LATHAM, Stephen J. World Vision Chair(s): LATHAM, Stephen J. [email protected] This workshop will highlight how World Vision in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) Region has responded to the challenge of DRR, social risk reduction, CCA, and sustainable livelihoods using child-focused standardized capacity building tools and methodologies. The presenter will stress

discussion of: (1) Possible gaps in Natech risk management and their reason (e.g. lack of awareness, data, models or tools?); (2) The role of critical-infrastructure systems (lifelines) in causing, preventing and mitigating Natech accidents; (3) Requirements for Natech-specific accident prevention and preparedness planning based on lessons learned; (4) Pathways towards more effective Natech risk management to make industrial facilities and thereby society less vulnerable.

The proposed session aims at addressing these issues by bringing together experts with a stake in Natech risk management from research, engineering, disaster risk management and decision making. The session hopes to foster integrated industrial risk management by presenting case studies and lessons learned, as well as by demonstrating examples of latest methodological developments useful for future disaster planning. Keywords: Natech, hazardous materials, industrial safety, natural hazard Challenges and opportunities in building a resilient city KUNDAK, Seda Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of Chair(s): KUNDAK, Seda [email protected] Disasters are able to cause dramatic changes in all systems at every level. Losses may be counted by the severity of damage in one hand, but on the other hand, the size of disruption may create a great shift to re-consider and install a new improved system instead of old and miss-functioned one. In this context, we can evaluate disasters as great opportunities for governments and communities to establish resilient cities. Turkey has experienced such a devastating event in 1999 due to Kocaeli Earthquake where more than 17.000 people died, 44.000 injured people and approximately 10 billion USD of economic losses which were equivalent around 4% of the country’s GDP.

Aftermath the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake increased perception of disaster risk lead to form new projects and to establish new regulations. In August 2000 AKOM (Coordination Center for Disasters) was established under Istanbul Greater Municipality and DMC (Disaster Management Center) was established under the Istanbul Governorship. In September 2000, TCIP (Insurance against Natural Hazards) was founded. In 2002, two comprehensive studies have been released: one was by Istanbul Greater Municipality and Japan International Cooperation Agency, and the other one was Bogazici University. The both studies include earthquake scenarios, vulnerability level of Istanbul and risky areas. In 2003, Istanbul Greater Municipality, within the contribution of academic staff of 4 pioneering universities of Turkey (Istanbul Technical University, Bogazici University, Middle East Technical University and Yildiz Technical University) developed “Earthquake Master Plan” for Istanbul. In 2007, the new regulations on Building Codes were set. In 2009, as a major step in risk management, AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency) was established.

In 2005, the agreement of ISMEP Project (Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project)

One of the issues identified at IDRC 2010 was the need for a coordinated logistics approach to hu-manitarian aid to ensure that the best results are achieved. Again the same situations were men-tioned, yet no one could offer a means to assist.

From the direct experience of our presenters, a new framework has been utilized to great effect during support of an on-going humanitarian relief and recovery program. The new framework relies on informal channels for communication, coordination and direction. More importantly it allows for the people and organization of the country that have suffer the disaster to assist in the recovery program.

The workshop will describe the "collector" system developed - the advantages to the management of the situation and to the development of resilience and long term sustainability in the country. In addition to outlining the collector systems, the workshop will discuss a method of assisting in the development and use of the collector system - a planning method that starts at the desired outcome (endstate) of the relief, recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction processes and works back to the beginning. There can be various endstates depending on the needs of the affected parties. To achieve each endstate, there are various endpoints that have to be identified and achieved. The method is dynamic as at each endpoint, the direction of the program could change to address issues that have arisen, or indeed changes in the endstate have occurred.

If we can define the desired endstate and then path needed to arrive at that point, we can ensure the more efficient and effective use of limited resources to develop resilience and long term sustainability in individuals, communities and nation states.

Objectives: (1) To illustrate the current challenges of managing increasingly more complex disas-ters. (2) Illustrate the simplicity and effectiveness of the collector system. (3) To demonstrate how the planning from endstate to beginning is far more effective than current planning and action programs.

Outcomes: (1) Development of a collector system to be included in future humanitarian relief / response activities. (2) Development of a planning framework and process that will assist in defining needs and requirements that can be directly linked to the assistance requested and/or being offered. Keywords: Collectors, Cultural, Coordination, Direction, Cost Effectiveness Financing the green transformation: opportunities and challenges ahead MANGALAGIU, Diana (1); YE, Qian (2) 1: GSDP; 2: IRGP Chair(s): MANGALAGIU, Diana;YE, Qian [email protected];[email protected] Today we have compelling evidence of the need to find new ways to ensure ecologically and economically resilient and sustainable societies. A green transformation strategy offers the opportunity to address the current financial and economic crisis by turning sufficient amounts of financial

the need for a multi-hazards approach that addresses natural, socio-natural and social hazards; highlights successful good practices and approaches that have been learned—namely the application of the UN Hyogo Framework of Action’s five priorities (i.e., governance; risk assessment, monitoring and alert; knowledge and education; underlying risk factors, and preparedness and response and crosscutting issues) and the sustainable livelihoods approach to develop capacities in children, youth, adolescents and adults at both the local and national level. The presenter will discuss capacity building using a multi-hazards and multi-vulnerability approach and will engage the audience with the application of some of the key tools. Also, the humanitarian imperative for evidence-based approaches and associated indicators that recognize multiple drivers and types of risk factors will be discussed. To address natural and socio-natural hazards, the Views from the Frontlines (VFL) survey, designed by the Global Network of Civil society Organizations for Disaster Reduction, will be highlighted. As social hazards were not addressed in VFL, indicators developed to address this type of hazard in collaboration with the UN University of Peace. The presenter will share results from this experience and emphasize the need for composite multi-hazards indicators using evidence-based approaches to measure impact of change over time resulting from the capacity building efforts. Finally, a proposed future policy direction will be mapped out, making a call for a paradigm shift that moves us from a fragmented and piecemeal programmatic approach towards an integrated and holistic one that utilizes a child-focused multi-hazards and multi-vulnerabilities approach to reduce risks and build resilience across the rural-urban continuum. Keywords: DRR, CCA, Community Resilience, Latin America/Caribbean Collectors, coordinators and directors - innovation in the management of disasters LOVE, Gavin John (1); MIYAMOTO, Kit (2) 1: WorleyParsons, United States of America; 2: Miyamoto International Chair(s): LOVE, Gavin John;MIYAMOTO, Kit [email protected];[email protected] Reporting by international aid organizations of humanitarian crises - Haiti, Japan, Pakistan, India, Australia, Colombia and so on, have focussed on an issue that is often discussed, but appears to be too complex to address - the coordination of cooperation between parties to ensure the seamless and coordinated delivery of relief, recovery, reconstruction, rehabilitation and redevelopment. Examples are provided of aid organizations offering support and nation states refusing the support until the effectiveness of the support is negated. Additionally, examples the same or similar aid being implemented without coordination and an understanding of the needs of the affect communities, results in wasted aid, disenfranchised individuals and aid donors.

Detractors of these reports will cite the development of a project management process for aid pro-grams, coordination between groups, existence of UN Cluster Groups, meetings between aid organizations, improved logistical coordination.

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leading role in the formation of the IRG Project’s six main research themes: social-ecological systems, models and modelling, transition into an emergency state and out of it, early warning systems, case comparison and paradigms.

A brief summary of our new research initiatives and outcomes is given in this session.

Presentations

Qian, Ye, IHDP-IRG Project, Executive director; Progress and new initiatives in IRG Project/IHDP

Michael J., Manfredo, Colorado State University, Head of the Department of Human Dimensions of Natural Resources; One Health Initiative

Carlo, Jaeger, Global Climate Forum, Chair; Current Status of GSDP

Tso-Chien, Pan, Nanyang Technological University, Professor;

Saini, Yang, Beijing Normal University, Associate Professor; Case Comparison in Typical Vulnerable Regions

Keywords: risk governance; climate change risk; social-ecologic systems; infrastructure; one health; The future of alerting the public – discussion of human behavior, information expectations and technology use in an intercultural context MEISSEN, Ulrich (1); DRESSEL, Kerstin (2); KLAFFT, Michael (1,3); PÁRRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina (4) 1: Fraunhofer Institute for Open Communication Systems; 2: sine Institut gGmbH; 3: FOM University of Applied Sciences; 4: DLR German Aerospace Center Chair(s): MEISSEN, Ulrich;DRESSEL, Kerstin;KLAFFT, Michael;PÁRRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina [email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected]

In recent years, public authorities and private companies have invested heavily in different types of alerting systems. However, in these systems the personal, cultural and social characteristics of the warning recipient are not taken into account in message composition and delivery. This shortcoming is significant in case of large-scale international disasters such as tsunamis, storm surges, large-scale nuclear accidents and hurricanes, which require an integrated, multi-national warning and alerting strategy for the general public. Due to the lack of cultural and personal sensitivity of existing alerting systems, warning messages are currently not ideally adapted to the recipients, and therefore cannot achieve optimal impact and compliance.

Another unsolved yet important issue is the interplay between

capital into entrepreneurial investment. Transforming the cities, businesses, energy systems and homes so as to increase welfare while reducing damages to the environment is a need in the face of shortage of resources. However, given the scale of the finance required, combined with tightening fiscal constraints in most industrialized countries, the ability to leverage significant private investment is crucial. However, due to a lack of business cases and a range of perceived risks, such investment is currently not being attracted into green infrastructure projects.

Starting with very concrete initiatives such as the SuperSmart Grid project, Desertec and large-scale green development projects in Japan and China, the panel will address the challenge of attracting large-scale investments needed for the green transformation.

Presentations:

Diana, Mangalagiu, Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford, Professor

Armin, Haas, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Senior Researcher

Antonella, Battaglini, Renewable Grid Initiative, Executive Director

Peter Höppe, Munich Re, Head of Geo Risks Research

James Cameron

Keywords: green transformation, large-scale infrastructure, large-scale investment, risk governance, resilience Progress and new initiatives in IRG Project/IHDP MANGALAGIU, Diana (1,2) 1: Integrated Risk Governance Project (IRGP)/IHDP, China, People's Republic of; 2: GSDP Chair(s): MANGALAGIU, Diana [email protected] After getting its official approval from the IHDP SC in September, 2010, IRG Project was formally launched in Beijing, China on May 11, 2011. The IRG Project Scientific Steering Committee (SC) was also formed and held it first annual meeting in Beijing in August, 2011. Although our organization is still in its infant stage, research works have already been conducted and preliminary results produced since its preparation stage starting in summer 2006. With about 11 new initiatives that were developed in 2011, IRG Project comprises a multi-institutional, interdisciplinary team of natural scientists, social scientists, engineers, policy makers as well educators around the world who have come together to develop and apply theoretic, mathematic and computational tools for the decision making processes in the case of very large-scale disasters around the globe. In 2011, IRG Project has made substantial progress with a focus on forging alliances around the world to assure that the efforts of the planned research foci were well integrated toward the attainment of common and specific goals. Starting in its planning stage, the IRG Project science team emphasized to identify the key institutes and leading scientists to take a

addresses practitioners and researchers from several fields.

Maximum Number of Participants: No strict limitations, but the optimal number of participants in the auditorium would be between 20 and 35. Keywords: Cross-border Alerting, Human Behaviour, Information Expectations, Technology and Media Use, Socio-Cultural Factors Water security: responses to local, regional, and global challenges MISHRA, Anil United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Chair(s): MISHRA, Anil [email protected] Water resource challenges are increasingly taking on a global dimension among governments due to increasing water scarcity and uncertainty with the associated effects on people and livelihoods, energy, food and ecosystems. Human activities have disrupted the natural hydrological and ecological regimes. Besides, the societal and environmental challenges linked to water-related issues are staggering in many cases. Moreover the vulnerability of our societies have increased and the number of fatalities as well as the economic damages caused by water-related disasters, such as floods, droughts and landslides is dramatically increasing worldwide, mainly as a result of our increased impact on the environment. The most important global driver that will significantly change water-related risks in the near future is population growth and its spatial and temporal dynamics. Other drivers, such as land-use changes, urbanization, migration patterns, energy issues, food production, are all derived from population change and economic development. In addition, climate change and variability will likely exacerbate the risk with more uncertainties.

The great challenge for the hydrological community is to identify appropriate and timely adaptation measures in a continuously changing environment. This session aims to explore on how a new paradigm towards an adaptive management can be developed to address water security issues.

List of Speakers / Panelist:

Dr. Eugene Stakhiv (ICIWaRM)Dr. Johannes Cullmann (Germany)Dr. Faiq Billal (ISESCO)Dr. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi (ICHARM)Dr. Anil Mishra (UNESCO)Dr. Gérard Bonnis (OECD )Dr. Djillali Benouar, (IRDR) Keywords: water related disasters A converging vision of resilience building between the private sector and civil society MITCHELL, Andrew ACF, France Chair(s): MITCHELL, Andrew [email protected] The factors contributing to, and the nature of, the disasters

alerts transmitted through different communication channels. Little is known, for example, about how personalized warning messages sent by e-mail, or SMS interact with more general warnings sent through broadcast media, and how such an interaction may affect the behavior of the general public in an emergency. Practically no simulation tools exist that allow a quick assessment of the likely impact of different warning strate-gies on the general public. As a result, decisions on how to alert are usually taken intuitively on an ad-hoc basis.

Existing, conventional alerting systems for the general public follow a “one size fits all” paradigm: they do not take any cultural or social differences among recipients into account. Since different social and cultural clusters show different media use patterns, tailor-made communications strategies are highly desirable if emergency alerts are to achieve optimal impact. On the other hand, we witness a vast pervasion of new communication infrastructures in our daily live, which sets the foundation to new ways of alerting the public but also to informal and unpredictable spread of „alerts“ via social media. Furthermore, most systems are managed nationally and do not allow efficient coordination of cross-border alerting strategies. As a result, the impact of alert messages is often sub-optimal. Several international projects are analyzing these challenges and seek for optimized methodologies for effective alerting in the future.

The objective of the workshop is to bring together scientists and practitioners who are concerned with alerting the public in emergency situations. Workshop participants will discuss the experiences, challenges and possible solutions stemming from social, cultural and transnational aspects of alerting. Addressed participants are Emergency Management Professionals and researchers from the fields of Public Safety, Disaster Management, Crisis Communication, Sociology, Psychology, Media/Communication Science, Computer Science and other relevant fields. The discussion will be based on current scientific findings of the EU research projects Opti-Alert (http://www.opti-alert.eu) and Alert4All (http://www.alert4all.eu). Based on the presentations of these results three major themes are discussed in a panel discussion: (1) Human Behaviour & Information Expectations; (2) Technology Use Aspects; (3) Cross-Border-Alerting.

For each topic, a brief introductory note (approx. 5 minutes) will be presented to stimulate a discus-sion. The discussion itself will be guided by a moderator and will involve members of the panel (emergency management professionals as well as researchers). The auditorium will also become involved by asking questions to the panel or inserting viewpoints into the discussion. Towards the end of each topic, the moderator will summarize discussion results and recommendations for the development of future alerting systems will be derived.

The main aim of the workshop is to draw a common picture of the current findings, challenges and envisioned solutions of the abovementioned aspects in public alerting in an interdisciplinary discus-sion. Minutes of the discussion will be taken, and key findings will be summarized in a workshop report that is going to be published on the IDRC platform. In the long term, the results of the workshop shall provide a basis for an interdisciplinary exchange on public alerting that

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us has our own particular and unique relationship with risk. Each of us can define risk in terms of our own knowledge, experience, education, culture, language, and attitude, making our perception of risk very subjective. In the vein of the common saying, “Perception is reality,” the way we perceive a risk, threat, or incident influences our response, and our emotional perception often overrides fact or reason. This can explain, for example, why people are more concerned about a plane crash than an automobile crash, and more fearful of sharks while at the beach than of developing skin cancer. In reality, it is 67 times riskier to travel the same distance by car than by plane, and annually there are only 6 deaths from shark attacks compared to 48,000 from melanoma.

The objective of this workshop is to foster understanding about the purpose of a BCM program, helping leaders to gain greater control over the company’s risk environment by employing strategies for better preparation and response. Through the use of multimedia, the workshop leads participants to consider the definition of risk and how risk is defined, teaching participants the following: the three ingredients of risk (risk = asset + threat + vulnerability), the three types of threat actors (natural, accidental, intentional), the seven “R’s of Resiliency” risk strategies, and the ten psychological “dread factors” that influence our perception of risk.

Through an interactive, facilitated activity called the Risk Matrix, participants learn to identify and categorize threats as they brainstorm potential risks and draw from their previous experiences to build upon current knowledge. Using the traditional risk analysis criteria of probability and impact, participants will consider each risk and develop a consensus of its placement on the matrix. This allows participants to interact with others to share their own knowledge of threats, and exchange advice and information for how to mitigate them.

After building this visual representation and shared framework of their threats, participants will discuss strategies and solutions for managing these different types of risks. Attendees will learn the “7 R’s of Resiliency” Risk Strategies to help assess best options for risk mitigation to either prevent or minimize the impact of an incident, or be implemented once an incident has occurred. These 7 R’s include: Relocate, Reassign, Repair & Replace, Replicate, Risk Transfer, Reinforce, and Relinquish.

Part of understanding our risk environment also means taking into account the very subjective manner in which risk is perceived. In the vein of the common saying, “Perception is reality,” the way we perceive a risk, threat, or incident influences our response; our emotional perception often overrides fact or reason. The more we recognize what drives this false sense of risk and acknowledge the “human” elements of risk, we can gain a greater understanding and a sense of control over our risk environment, both within a group and at an individual level.

At the conclusion of the workshop, participants will learn specific, employable strategies for manag-ing risk; they will also have the knowledge to facilitate discussions within

of today and tomorrow are changing and are presenting challenges for all actors. The interests of the private sector and civil society to address disaster is increasingly converging, creating new opportunities, with more common ground identifiable, and with concrete examples how partnerships are being set up to exploit this common ground. Here, there are increasing efforts to tackle disaster risk as a complete system acknowledging complexity and uncertainty when designing solutions: resilience building is the latest effort to centralise previous best practice from different sectors and actors, aligned to a common strategy or plan, and better involving different partners working at different timeframes, scales and across different thematic. Business and civil society are both looking beyond direct action on a target business or population to more broadly creating an enabling environment for sustainable functioning that considers the systems in which these targets belong to. There is a shift from focusing on short-term disaster response and damage control to a more long-term and continuous management of risk through resilience building around multi-hazard disaster cycles.

The session aims to illustrate the overlap in interests and action between local groups, international civil society and the private sector for creating resilience to natural and man-made disaster for communities vulnerable to these. It aims to be at once informative in comparing and contrasting visions of risk management and resilience coming from different key actors, whilst allowing interaction with the audience to pursue the commonalities and potential opportunities for integrated action between local groups, international civil society and the private sector. Keywords: resilience, risk management, private sector, civil society, community Understanding your risk environment MURPHY, Sean Lootok, United States of America Chair(s): MURPHY, Sean [email protected] Risk is highly complex, dynamic and connected. Understanding our risk environment is a complex process that involves identifying the various threats that exist around us, considering recovery strategies for potential threats before they occur, recognizing our individual and unique relationship to risk, and understanding how the human psyche responds in the face of stress.

Business Continuity Management (BCM) exists because we live and work in a risk environment. But what is risk, and how do we define it?

When considering and evaluating the various threats that face an organization, quantifying and prioritizing risk can help inform decisions about where to focus often-limited resources and continuity efforts. Being able to categorize threats using specific threat actors facilitates the process for identifying threats, defining probability and positioning strategies, planning, and training. For example, fire is an example of a threat that has all three actors: 1. wild fire (natural), 2. machine fire (accidental), 3. arson (intentional).

Like beauty, risk is in the eye of the beholder, and each of

pandemic preparedness and response experiences to other crises, and 2) this session would inspire conference participants to champion and implement practical resilience measures within their own organizations or countries. The Towards a Safer World team would document and disseminate these key findings.

Moderator: Dr. David Nabarro, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition, and the UN System Influenza Coordinator.

Rapporteur: Dr. Chadia Wannous, Senior Policy Advisor and TASW Network Coordinator, UN System Influenza Coordination (UNSIC)

Panelists:

Amir Abdullah- WF (TBC): Mainstreaming Pandemic Preparedness into Multi-Hazard Readiness- Validation of disaster response mechanisms through pandemic preparedness and response exercises at country and regional levels.

David Harper- WHO (Health Security Preparedness): A strategic approach to reducing health risks through the engagement of multiple stakeholders in all- hazard public health preparedness

Emil Agustiono- Indonesia (Whole Of Society approach): Building national pandemic preparedness through strengthening non health sectors: Indonesia’s lesson learnt)

Matthias Schamle-IFRC (Community-Level Preparedness): The relevance of Integrative Risk Management to Red Cross Red Crescent programming

Steve Aldrich-Bio-Era (Business Continuity Planning): How to motivate private sector participants to invest in mitigating and adapting to systemic risks.

Keywords: whole-of-society, multi-sectoral, planning, essential services, pandemic Disaster risk reduction in the Hindu Kush – Himalayan Region NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna International center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of Chair(s): NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna [email protected] Hindu Kush Himalaya region lies between the latitude 15°42"–40°8"N and longitude 59°34"–112°5"E on the globe and encompasses a geographical area of 3,441,719 km2 including over all or part of eight Asian countries from west to east (Figure 1). These countries are Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan. Topographically it is mountainous part and source of ten large Asian river systems – the Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra (Yarlungtsanpo), Irrawaddy, Salween (Nu), Mekong (Lancang), Yangtse (Jinsha), Yellow River (Huanghe), and Tarim (Dayan), - and provides water, ecosystem services, and the basis for livelihoods to a population of around 210.53 million people in the region.

their own organizations about the different preferences, experiences, and values that lead us to perceive, assess, and evaluate risk in various ways. With this new understanding of their risk environment and transparency into the risk landscape, participants will understand how to gain greater control over the threats their organizations face and employ strategies for better preparation and response.

*This session may be facilitated with a maximum of 60 participants. Keywords: business continuity management, risk assessment, team training, awareness, education Towards a safer world: a whole-of-society approach to dsaster preparedness NABARRO, David; WANNOUS, Chadia UN System influenza Coordination (UNSIC), Switzerland Chair(s): NABARRO, David;WANNOUS, Chadia [email protected];[email protected] The TASW network is a diverse group of energetic and expert practitioners: it is also the evolving body of whole-of-society best practice; and has extensive experience of using simulation exercises to test contingency plans. The Network convenes a broad range of stakeholders including non-traditional partners from the private sector and the military. TASW is a network of individuals rather than organizations. This facilitates candid, informal and innovative interactions. The significant investments and broad participation in pandemic preparedness since 2005 have generated many practical lessons and innovations - relevant not only for improving responses to health crises, but also for strengthening societal resilience in the face of other major threats. TASW’s diverse stakeholder base can promote learning across silos, new working practices and more effective use of preparedness resources; help ensure that pandemic good practices are applied more widely where relevant, and enable disaster risk management actors to prepare for the threat of pandemics and integrate pandemic into wider disaster planning. Sustaining commitment for pandemic preparedness in the present resource environment will improve the efficiency of responses when further pandemic-like events occur.

The 5 most critical areas of learning that emerged out of the last 6 years of multi-sector prepared-ness for an influenza pandemic include (i) the value of simulation exercises; (ii) the importance of sophisticated risk communication strategies; (iii) the need for community-level preparedness; (iv) the critical role of business continuity planning; and (v) the benefits of whole-of-society approaches. Much experience of good practices in these areas has emerged from the pandemic experience.

The proposed ‘Towards a Safer World’ session at the IDRC event would bring together leading-edge practitioners from each of these five thematic areas, to discuss best practices and lessons learned from their experience in pandemic preparedness and how these can be applied to other crises. Our aspiration is that 1) through stimulating a productive debate amongst the audience, the session would lead to enhanced appreciation of the value of adopting lessons learned from

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cooperation for disaster risk reduction.

Session Objectives: (1) Highlights Disaster issues in the Hindu Kush – Himalaya (HKH) region; (2) Highlight the need for eco system based Disaster Risk Reduction for ensuring environmental sustainability and reducing mountain community’s disaster vulnerability; (2) Highlight the importance of regional cooperation for Disaster Risk Reduction; (3) Learning from multi stake holder efforts and models of Disaster Risk Reduction in mountain regional in general and HKH region in particular;

Aims & Outcomes: (1) Bring mountain disaster issues in to the focus of global Disaster Risk Reduction discourse and efforts through IDRC forum; (2) Convergence of ideas, experiences and experiences of multi stake holders on Disaster Risk Reduction in the HKH region; (3)Enhanced strategic collaboration among international stakeholders: Donors/scientific/policy institutions/government organizations and like-minded organizations; (4)Enhanced cooperation among key national technical and scientific institutions of the countries in the HKH region; (5)Enhanced commitment for eco-system protection for Disaster Risk Reduction by key stakeholders in the region. Keywords: Mountains, environment, Eco system, regional cooperation, risk, vulnerability ESS project – technical and conceptual challenges RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); HAZZANI, Gideon (2); MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien (3); HERRERO, Jose (4); RIVAS, Pablo (4); EFTYCHIDIS, George (5) 1: Magen David Adom, Israel; 2: VERINT, Israel; 3: CEREN, France; 4: GMV, Spain; 5: ALGO systems, Greece Chair(s): RAFALOWSKI, Chaim;HAZZANI, Gideon;MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien;HERRERO, Jose;RIVAS, Pablo [email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected] ESS – Emergency Support System, is an EU – FP7 funded project - FP7-SEC-2007-01: Network Enabled command and control systems: Integrated Project 217951.

ESS (http://www.ess-project.eu) aims to provide a rapidly deployable and portable, platform which incorporate sensors and external web services from various sources into one operational system for supporting response to emergencies and crisis management allowing the creation of a real-time, common operational picture. The sensors and services include – chemical, weather, fixed ground cameras, airborne cameras, detection of the signals created by GPS, cellular, traffic information, hazards simulation and more. All this information is presented on a web based portal, which is accessible by the incident commanders at the command post, other stakeholders from anywhere, as well as by the field actors through PDA applications. Risk assessment modules, available in the ESS portal, support decision making during the crisis situation

The region is environmentally stressed and economically underdeveloped. Consequently the region is highly vulnerable for climate change, natural disaster and their environmental and socio-economic risks.

About 95% population of the total population in the HKH region depends on agriculture and forest resources but the forest cover is decreasing 0.36 km2 per year and the agricultural production decreasing due climate change and several natural disasters. The region experience natural disasters very frequently, especially earthquake and water induced hazards. Several data sources indicate that that out of total annual disaster in HKH region 14% are earthquake and landslide disaster 48% are hydrological disasters (i.e.36% flood, 9% mass movement, 3% drought) whereas 38% are other types of disasters such as storm (23%), wild fire (1%), extreme temperature (6%), epidemic (8%). Results concluded that climate change accelerating the hazard events with the growth rate of 6% each year. Subsequently human casualties increasing with the rate of 9% each year whereas affected people and infrastructural loss increasing with that rate of respectively 6% and 4% each year. Because of the high growth rates of the existing risks level expected that the emerging risk has the potential to evolve into extreme events. Therefore, Disaster Risk Reduction requires a comprehensive approach combining structural mitigation, socio-economic development, environmental sustainability and regional cooperation efforts.

Most of the natural hazards in the HKH region are regional in nature. Environmental degradation, geological, hydro-meteorological, climatic or anthropogenic factors in one country cause hazards transcend the political boundaries and affect communities in the neighbouring countries too. The South Asian earthquake of October 2005 damaged life and property over large areas of Pakistan and India. Koshi floods devastate parts of Nepal and India every monsoon, while Ganges floods maroon hundreds of villages in India Bangladesh. Similarly, Indus river floods affect Afghanistan and Pakistan and Brahmaputra floods affect China and India. Further, trans-boundary environmental problems are major focus of bi-lateral conflicts and debates in the HKH region. For instance, deforestation and environmental degradation in upstream mountain regions in one country causes flooding in another downstream country and construction or mismanagement of dams in an upstream country poses grave security threat to a country in the downstream. Therefore, eco system protection and regional cooperation is very crucial for disaster risk reduction in the HKH region.

The progressive and tactical integration of Disaster Risk Reduction across natural resource management, climate change, livelihoods and development planning is the ideal way of achieving a holistic approach to disaster risk, vulnerability and to its reduction. This holistic approach should be aided by bi-lateral and regional cooperation.

The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) calls for Integrating risk reduction into development and environmental planning and policies at all levels of government, including in poverty reduction strategies and sectors and multi sector policies and plans. The HFA also emphasizes the importance of regional

The lessons learned from those operations clearly demonstrate the complexity of creating a clear real time operational picture of the casualties, their severity and location. Project SOGRO on electronic triage addresses this issue and provides a state of the art solution to this issue.

Objectives: (1) To present the lessons learned by the EMS services in – Madrid, London, Israel from their response to terrorist attacks, and identify common lessons learned. (2) To present the results of project SOGRO offering a solution to creating a real time picture of the number of casualties, their severity and location, in order to facilitate right distribution to the hospitals and resource management.

C. Session structure:

1. 3 presentations 15 minutes each followed by 5 minutes of questions and answers – lessons learned from: Madrid, London, Israeli terrorist attacks.2. Presentation of SOGRO project results – 20 minutes.3. Panel discussion – 10 minutes.

Keywords: Crisis management, Terrorism, lessons learned Same problem – different solutions RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); LATASCH, Leo (2); LEIS, Carmen (3) 1: Magen David Adom, Israel, State of; 2: Frankfurt city Health Department Germany; 3: SAMUR-Protección Civil. Madrid. Spain Chair(s): RAFALOWSKI, Chaim;LATASCH, Leo;LEIS, Carmen [email protected];[email protected];[email protected] The chemical attack in the subway system of Tokyo in 1995 draw the international assistance to the risk of chemical terrorist attacks. Since 1995 most of the countries are preparing to respond to a major chemical attack. Different countries have developed different response concepts for the response to a chemical terrorist attacks. These concepts are with regards to the type of personal protective equipment to be used by the medical personnel and their tasks.

The objective of the session it to present and discuss the different approaches to medical chemical response in: (1) Germany – Frankfurt: the victims are removed by fire-fighters from the contaminated area; go through "technical decontamination" by fire-fighters. EMS personnel treat and transport only decontaminated patients. (2) Spain – Madrid: EMS personnel wearing Level A protection will enter the contaminated area and remove the patients. EMS is responsible for the decontamination site, where medical treatment will commence. The team working with PPE is a specially trained team. The "normal" EMS teams treat and transport only decontaminated patients.(3) UK: specially trained teams (HART) using Level A protection enter the contaminated area, decontamination is performed by HART teams, "normal EMS" teams treat and transport only decontaminated patients. (4) Israel – all EMS personnel are trained and expected to perform in a contaminated area (staff and volunteers) and carry PPE as part of the regular ambulance equipment. The

The system performed a "proof of concept" test in Germany in June 2010 , and two full scale field exercises in France in cooperation with end users organizations of which one in Nimes in April 2012 addressing a flood related scenario associated with a virtual evacuation of a stadium and another test in Sisteron in June 2012 concerning a truck accident in a road tunnel causing a chemical spill in a nearby water course. A third test is planned for April of 2013 to test the system against a scenario of an airplane crash with a large forest fire start which shall cross the borders from France to Italy.

Objective of the idrc 2012 session is to provide the participants an insight into the system, as well as into the challenges encountered in the processes and the solutions the project came with.

Session program:

1. The Emergency Support System - ESS: Concept and technology (20’) - Gideon HAZZANI, VERINT (IL)2. Emergency Support System - ESS : The end-user perspective (15’) – Chaim RAFALOWSKI, MDA (IL)3. Emergency Support System - ESS: System’s field tests and lessons learned (30’) – Adrien MANGIAVILLANO, CEREN (FR)4. Emergency Support System - ESS : Demonstration of the web-portal (30’) – Jose HERRERO, GMV (ES)

5. Discussion and conclusions - round table (25’) Moderated by George EFTYCHIDIS, ALGO (GR)

Acknowledgement

The ESS project is partially funded by the European Commission, Directorate General Enterprise, under the Grant agreement No.217951 of the SECURITY Programme (Theme 10) of the Seventh Framework Programme. Keywords: Crisis management, decision support system, common operational picture Mass casualty incidents – lessons learned RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); LATASCH, Leo (2); CASPI, Guy (1); LEIS, Carmen (3) 1: Magen David Adom, Israel, State of; 2: German Red Cross, Frankfurt Branch, Germany; 3: SAMUR-Protección Civil. Madrid. Spain Chair(s): RAFALOWSKI, Chaim;LATASCH, Leo;CASPI, Guy;LEIS, Carmen [email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected] Multi Casualty Situations are one of the most important challenges Emergency Medical Services prepare for and are required to respond to. In recent years terrorist attacks in Madrid, London, Israel have created major operational challenges to the EMS organizations, challenging the "historical" response schemes.

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risk assessment in decision/policy making processes.

Session’s Objectives:- To present the UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP)’s approach to assist the countries to understand their disaster risks and use that information to support sound decision/policy making and development planning- To present the collaboration with partners to develop tools, guidelines, standards that can be utilized at country level to improve their risk and disaster information- To present actual examples of how countries have utilized improved risk information to inform decision making and development planning- To share field experiences at country level on UNDP’s GRIP and its partners’ efforts to develop local capacities for risk assessment and for its applications in decision/policy making processes- To openly discuss these experiences to produce recommendations on how these efforts can better support the countries’ risk assessment needs.

Expected outputs- A better understanding of UNDP’s GRIP contributions to improving countries’ understanding of their disaster risks and of feasible, effective mitigation options- A better understanding of what countries are actually doing to incorporate risk information as an integral part of decision making processes- A set of recommendations on how the international community can better assist countries with their risk assessment needs and demands. Keywords: Disaster Risk, Risk assessment, decision making, capacity development, UNDP, GRIP Special Swiss Re session on economics of disasters – costs and financing mechanisms SCHNARWILER, Reto Swiss Reinsurance Ltd Chair(s): SCHNARWILER, Reto [email protected] 2011 saw extraordinary and devastating catastrophic events. With USD 370bn the highest economic losses to society due to natural and man-made disasters ever were recorded. The earthquakes in Japan, New Zealand, and Turkey, as well as the floods in Australia and Thailand, were unprecedented and brought not only massive destruction but also the loss of thousands of people’s lives. The famine due to severe drought in the Horn of Africa is believed to be the largest human catastrophe of the year. The events in Japan and Thailand also reminded us of the vulnerability of the global supply chains as key manufacturing companies were faced with business interruptions. The resilience of a society not only depends on the severity of an event, but also on the preparedness and available funding for relief, recovery and reconstruction. This session will discuss economic consequences of disasters, how to assess risks and costs, and how to mitigate and finance them. Keywords: Economics of Disasters (Swiss Re Session)

personnel wearing a powered PAPR and splash suit will enter the contaminated area and transport contaminated patients to the hospital. The only decontamination measure in the field is disrobing. Wet decontamination will be performed at the hospitals gate.

Session concept: 4 presentations of 10 minutes each, followed by 5 minutes of questions for each presentation. 30 minutes will be dedicated to an interactive session with the audience discussing the pros and cons of EMS personnel working in a contaminated zone. Keywords: CBRN, emergency response, Emergency Medical Services EMS Improved Risk information to support sound policy/decision making processes – The UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme, GRIP’s experience SCHEUER, Jo (1); VILLACIS, Carlos (2); OSUNA MILLÁN, José Guadalupe (3); BELOW, Regina (4); WEN, Jiahong (5); DIXIT, Amod (6) 1: UNDP-BCPR; 2: UNDP-GRIP; 3: Government Baja California State, Mexico; 4: CRED; 5: GRIP-CERAM Shanghai; 6: NSET-Nepal Chair(s): SCHEUER, Jo;VILLACIS, Carlos;OSUNA MILLÁN, José Guadalupe;BELOW, Regina;WEN, Jiahong;DIXIT, Amod [email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected] While there are many disaster risk assessments being carried out at different levels and using different approaches, it is not completely clear how effectively risk assessment results are incorporated in decision making processes. In many cases, risk assessments produce reports, maps and other rather technical outputs that remain unused or not clearly understood by the potential end-users of those results. In the meantime, countries, cities, communities, sectors are making decisions and investing resources in Disaster Risk Management Initiatives and Developing Planning and Investment without a proper understanding of the associated risks or not having an evidence-based strategy that guides their decisions. As a result, as shown by annual statistics on disaster losses, very little progress is being made in reducing the negative impact of natural extreme events on communities and their development. To address this issue, Risk Assessment must be an integral part of the decision making process at every stage: understanding the problem, planning the solutions, monitoring progress and evaluating impact to make the necessary corrections to the adopted plans and strategies. How to achieve this? What is the type of information that risk assessments should produce to be useful to end users’ decision making processes? How to engage end users from the very beginning of risk assessment processes to ensure validity, relevance and applicability of the results? UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) and several of its partners would like to share their field experiences at country level on their efforts to ensure effective integration of

Republic of; 2: Global Systems, Dynamics and Policy, Global Climate Forum Chair(s): SHI, Peijun [email protected] In recent years, the whole world experienced various very large-scale disasters including earthquakes in China, New Zealand and Haiti, floods in Southeast Asia, and more significantly, the Triple Disaster in Japan. It is unfortunate that the governing bodies at all levels still lack of coping capacity and mechanism to prevent and mitigate such disasters as well as recover efficiently and effectively from such events.

In this session, experts from the IRG Project community and the Global Climate Forum will present their research findings based on case studies to identify the lessons learned from different countries and different disasters. Innovative concepts and ideas, not only in sciences and technology but also in policy making and human behavior change, are expected to be discussed and debated for the purpose of improving and assisting risk governance practice globally.

Presentations:Norio, Okada, Kyoto University, Professor

Qian, Ye, IHDP-IRG Project, Executive director; Too much money and too little money: lessons learned from recent global disasters

Armin, Haas, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Senior Researcher

Xiaobing, Hu, Beijing Normal University, Professor; Ripple-Spreading Models and Algorithms for Integrated Risk Governance

Peijun, Shi, IHDP-IRG Project, Beijing Normal University, Co-chair, Vice President

Keywords: case comparison, lessons learned, very large-scale disasters, risk governance, Recent and future developments in EU security research. From a counter-terrorism focus towards a wider support for natural and accidental large scale crisis or disasters. SIMONART, Tristan (1); AMBS, Peter (2); ALEXANDER, David (3); WERNER, Heiko (4); GRAN, Hans-Christian (5); ALKHUDHAIRY, Delilah (6); RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (7) 1: European Commission, ENTR; 2: Interpol; 3: GRF Davos; 4: THW; 5: FFI, Norway; 6: JRC; 7: Magen David Adom Chair(s): SIMONART, Tristan;AMBS, Peter;ALEXANDER, David;WERNER, Heiko;GRAN, Hans-Christian;ALKHUDHAIRY, Delilah;RAFALOWSKI, Chaim [email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected];[email protected]

Natura hazard resilient cities SERRE, Damien (1); LAGANIER, Richard (2) 1: Université Paris-EST, EIVP, France; 2: Université Paris Diderot, Laboratoire PRODIG, Sorbonne Paris Cité Chair(s): SERRE, Damien [email protected] 2007 is a crucial year: 50% of the population is living in urban areas. Furthermore, it has been forecasted that this number will double in the next 30 years. This increase rate corresponds to a new city of 1 million people every week during the next 40 years. This exponential curve is enough to imagine that cities become more vulnerable: issues we will have to face dealing with risk management become more complex. Moreover, this quick urbanization comes with climate change uncertainties. Climate change, coupled with people and asset concentration in cities, is the worst combination to set up a sustainable natural hazard management plan. As an example, floods are considered the major natural hazard in the EU in terms of risk to people and assets. Currently, more than 40 bn € per year are spent on flood mitigation and recovery in the EU. More than 75 % of the damage caused by floods is occurring in urban areas. Climate change and concentration of population and assets in urban areas are main trends likely to affect these numbers in the near future. Global warming is expected to lead to more severe storm and rainfall events as well as to increasing river discharges and sea level rise. This means that flood risk is likely to increase significantly. At least, urban systems contain assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people’s basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after disasters (floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, landslides...). The severity of damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly.

In this context, we obtain a urban society: (1) more and more menaced by a lot of natural hazards; (2) more and more vulnerable due to increasing issues and complex urban system relations; (3) less and less resilient.

This session aims at discussing how researchers, practitioners and professionals are integrating the resilient concept to set up new risk management approaches and to design more resilient and flexible cities to face all types of natural hazards. Indeed, a lot of projects in the EU are now trying to use the concept of resilience to mitigate different types of risks in urban areas. This session represents a great opportunity to exchange on resilient cities and to build up a resilience framework. We are attending presentations combining different disciplines, bringing conceptual elements on resilience but also tangible applications. All methods, frameworks, tools (GIS) designed to reduce risks in cities and integrating the resilience concept are welcome in this session. Keywords: Urban Resilience, Methods, Tools, Actions Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world SHI, Peijun (1); JAEGER, Carlo (2) 1: Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People's

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and developments. Mobiles can and will play a significant and effective role in improving personal preparedness and safety, yet much work remains. This is a multi-stakeholder challenge, ranging from those involved in research, mobile device vendors, service providers, governmental authorities and individual communities of mobile phone users.

This session will look at the use of mobile technology, from multiple perspectives, but focused most on human behaviour and how to influence adoption and effective use of these technologies. We will hear short, thematic presentations from academic, governmental, and industry perspectives, and engage the workshop participants in discussion on how to address challenges in the effective use of mobile technology.

We plan for up to six speakers to make a short presentation on a specific theme. As with our previous IDRC workshop, audience contributions are most welcome and often quite valuable. We place no restriction on the number of members.

Audience members will be encouraged to participate in the discussion and to build an on-going network for collaboration in this important and rapidly evolving area. Social media will be used to facilitate this goal.

We plan to organize either a journal special issue or book with authors from the 2010 and 2012 workshops, focused on current and future applications of mobile ICT for disaster preparedness, Situational Awareness, and response. Keywords: ICT, Mobile Technology, Social Networks, Research, Warning, Preparedness The benefits of standardisation in reducing seismic risk TAUCER, Fabio Federico; PINTO, Artur Joint Research Centre, Italy (European Commission) Chair(s): TAUCER, Fabio Federico;PINTO, Artur [email protected];[email protected] Protection of societies against earthquake disasters and socio-economic losses is a multi-step process involving advancement of science by the research community, development of tools and methodologies for assessment and design, and their harmonization into standards and subsequent implementation by the Member States.

The work that has been carried out in the last decades by the different countries in Europe and across the world in the area of seismic risk mitigation demonstrates the efforts undertaken to date to reduce the consequences of earthquake disasters. This has resulted in a vast amount of different approaches and methodologies, that in spite of adding to scientific knowledge, have had limited application at global scale. There is a need to put together the efforts undertaken to reach cross-border approaches and consensus, progressing towards harmonization and standardisation. This calls for coordinated actions to exploit the available resources and the complementarities and expertise of the many different actors.

To this end, the European Commission has supported a program for the harmonization of technical standards in the field of construction, known today as the Eurocodes, which

As a consequence of 9/11 and terrorist attacks in Europe in the recent decade, the EU has concentrated significant security research efforts (as well as policies) in the area of Security, CBRN and terrorism.

More recently, in particular under the new Lisbon Treaty, security research funding has been covering a wider scope of threats including food, water and environmental hazards, not only linked to terrorist events but also to criminal activities, large scale disasters or accidents which may have a huge impact on citizens and the resilience of the society.

This new emphasis is due to an increasing concern at political and citizen level on the more frequent occurrence of several kinds of natural or accidental crisis and , as a consequence, a strong wish to increase the EU resilience capability against such threats.

The session will be animated by security research experts and consortia currently carrying activities in the area as well as contribution from EC services. The speakers will address the question from different perspectives.

EC representatives will also describe future research activities in that area.

The expected outcomes of the session are twofold: (1) provide an overview of EU security research current and future support in the area of crisis and disaster management; (2) provide links with ongoing and future EU policies and research priorities based on an all hazard approach. Keywords: Preparedness, Detection, Response, All Hazard Approach, Security Research, Crisis and Disaster Management, Terrorism, Crime Ubiquitous technology to facilitate preparedness, practice, and situational awareness before, during, and after disasters SULLIVAN, Helen T (1); HÄKKINEN, Markku T (2) 1: Rider University, United States of America; 2: University of Jyväskylä & ETS Chair(s): SULLIVAN, Helen T;HÄKKINEN, Markku T [email protected];[email protected] During 2012, the number of phone mobile connections worldwide is expected to reach 6 billion and it will not be long before there is the equivalent of one mobile phone connection for each of our planet’s inhabitants. The majority of people worldwide will either have direct access to a mobile device, or be within the family or social network of someone who does. As explored in our past workshops at IDRC mobile technology offers significant possibilities for preparedness, alerting, and response. And in the past two years, we have seen continuing advances in technology, as well as our understanding of how people adopt and use mobile devices. The growing ubiquity of this technology comes with the challenge of using it effectively to support an active and adaptive approach to preparedness, training, risk communication, and situational awareness for both individuals and emergency responders. There remain technical challenges and research gaps, as discussed our 2010 workshop, as well as promising new trends

Chair(s): THUMMARUKUDY, Muralee [email protected] There is increasing evidence that healthy ecosystems provide multiple disaster risk reduction services. Healthy and well-managed ecosystems- such as coral reefs, mangroves, forests and wetlands- reduce disaster risk by acting as natural buffers or protective barriers, for instance through flood and landslide mitigation and water filtration and absorption. At the same time, fully-functioning ecosystems build local resilience against disasters by sustaining livelihoods and providing important products to local populations.

Although there is growing global awareness that halting environmental degradation and improving management of ecosystems and natural resources play an essential role in reducing human vulnerability to disasters, there has been a significant lag in investing in and applying ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction. Environmental sustainability and disaster resilience must be built into local and national development to protect lives and assets, sustain livelihoods and manage climate change impacts.

This session aims to explore the reasons behind the slow progression from theory to practice from a multi-sectoral perspective. It will bring together practitioners and decision makers who have to make investment decisions on disaster risk reduction and look at the issue from a diagnostic point of view. Through these discussions we will identify key enabling factors and effective processes for mainstreaming and applying ecosystem-based DRR so as inform the wider DRR and development community.

Session Speakers include:

• Mr. Thiruvanchoor RadhakrishnanHonorable Minister for Home Affairs for the State of Kerala, India• Prof. Abé Delfin OchouNational Coordinator for Disaster Risk ReductionMinistry for Environment and Sustainable Development, Côte d'lvoire• Ms. Marta MonjaneTechnical Coordinator for Forest and Climate Change in the Eastern and Southern Africa RegionIUCN - International Union for Conservation of Nature• Mr. Daniel KullGlobal Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)

Keywords: Ecosystems, environment, disaster, risk minimisation, risk reduction

Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness - PART 1 TSCHURR, Simon Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC CH, Switzerland Chair(s): TSCHURR, Simon [email protected] First Responders are the most efficient organizations to save lives after an emergency. This session provides insight on

were recommended to be fully implemented in the Member States by 2010. Likewise, through the Research Framework Programs financed by the European Union, a large number of projects in the field of earthquake risk mitigation, with the joint and coordinated cooperation of all Member States, have contributed to the harmonization of techniques and methodologies for seismic hazard and risk assessments, and loss estimation.

The objective of the session is to present the various initiatives undertaken in the European Union towards harmonization and implementation, and to show how they can improve earthquake risk mitigation at a global scale.

The session will consist of four 20 min. presentations concerning the: i) Implementation of the European Standards for Construction in Europe, in particular of Eurocode 8 (Design of structures for earthquake resistance) and how they contribute towards reducing seismic risk, making the best and most efficient use of available resources in Europe; ii) Development of a harmonized seismic hazard model for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Euro-Mediterranean region; iii) The contribution of the INSPIRE Directive of the European Commission, in particular of the Data Specifications of Buildings, in providing exposure data for seismic risk assessment and loss estimation in Europe and iv) a proposal for a definition of harmonized typologies of European elements at risk, including buildings and infrastructure.

Possible titles and contributors for the presentations are:- The role of the European Standards for Construction (Eurocodes) for earthquake risk mitigation (JRC).- Harmonized hazard assessment procedures and guidelines in Europe (Contribution from FP7 SHARE Project)- Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe Directive: Contribution towards seismic risk and loss assessment (INSPIRE Directive, TWG Buildings)- Proposal for harmonized typology definitions of European elements at risk (contribution from FP7 SYNER-G Project)

Aims & Outcome

The aim of the session is to present the efforts currently being undertaken in Europe to promote harmonization in areas that are directly concerned with earthquake risk mitigation. The session will also open the ground for discussion of the associated benefits of harmonization in reducing the consequences of earthquake disasters and in allowing and facilitating seismic risk assessment and loss estimation in Europe. Ways for removing the remaining barriers that are holding back further harmonization and the implementation of standards in Europe will be put forward. Keywords: harmonization, standardization, Eurocodes, INSPIRE Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction: Moving from Theory to Practice THUMMARUKUDY, Muralee (1); ESTRELLA, Marisol (1); BOE, Kaia (2); MURTI, Radhika (2) 1: United Nations Environment Programme; 2: International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)

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2011. It is clear, then, that this level of losses has a huge impact on the normal development of countries, especially of the least developed ones. The 2004 Report on Disaster Risk Reduction for Sustainable Development in Africa already established that disaster impacts have become impediments to sustainable development in Africa. If nothing is done to effectively reduce the negative impact of natural events that recurrently affect countries, in particular, the most vulnerable ones, these countries will never be able to provide proper health, education, nutrition, jobs and opportunities to their people.

Developing local capacities is the only way to ensure sustainability of the long-term risk reduction initiatives needed to actually reduce the impact of disasters on development. Disaster risk is dynamic and changes continuously with factors such as normal development and demographic growths, internal and external migrations, changes in the economy, conflicts, and urbanization processes, among other things. A risk assessment performed for a vibrant urban area 10 years ago may now be completely obsolete and in need of a thorough revision. At the same time, new available technology such as GPS, Google earth and mapping, and other projects and initiatives being implemented generate, in a continuous basis, new information that needs to be properly and systematically incorporated to enhance the current understanding of disaster risk, its causes and potential mitigation options. Also, the updated understanding of the risk needs to be continuously incorporated in decision making processes by end users of the risk information. All of this is possible only when there are the local capacities, in terms of the required technical, institutional and financial aspects, to carry out these activities. Countries, cities, communities cannot depend on international consultants or organizations. Building these capacities, however, requires long-term, dedicated initiatives.

The training will focus on dealing with disasters from a development perspective. It will cover the following aspects:

• Essentials of risk assessment, including key concepts, assessment process, framework, and common challenges, as well as the use of risk information in public decision making• UNDP-GRIP’s Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) solution and associated practices in developing countries• The road map for implementing a comprehensive DRA in a country• Examples of actual application of risk assessment results in decision making and development planning

Through this training, the participants are expected to:

• Understand the development dimensions of disaster risk assessment and management and, therefore, adopt a development-focused approach when dealing with disaster risk• Develop an overall understanding of disaster risk assessment in a country and its possible use in public policy and decision making• Be able to explain the role and importance of DRA in formulating national disaster risk reduction strategy and action plans

current ongoing projects. The panel and audience will discuss best lessons on how to strengthen First Responders, including assessment of the needs, partnership building, training of trainers, showcasing of best practices and minimum standards.

Participants of this session are experts in Capacity Building, including researchers from institutions for scientific research, humanitarian actors; development organizations; representatives from ministries which are dealing with Capacity Development within their own country and abroad.

Panelists:- Peter Goxharaj Senior Program Officer for Rapid Deployment Units German Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) Keywords: Urban Search & Rescue Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness - PART 2 TSCHURR, Simon Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC CH, Switzerland Chair(s): TSCHURR, Simon [email protected] First Responders are the most efficient organizations to save lives after an emergency. This session provides insight on current ongoing projects. The panel and audience will discuss best lessons on how to strengthen First Responders, including assessment of the needs, partnership building, training of trainers, showcasing of best practices and minimum standards.

Participants of this session are experts in Capacity Building, including researchers from institutions for scientific research, humanitarian actors; development organizations; representatives from ministries which are dealing with Capacity Development within their own country and abroad.

Panelists:- Olivier Hagon, Dr. Med, University Hospitals of Geneva, Head Specialized Group Medical of the HAD/SDC

Keywords: Urban Search & Rescue Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management VILLACIS, Carlos; YAN, Jianping UNDP-GRIP Chair(s): VILLACIS, Carlos;YAN, Jianping [email protected];[email protected] In 2011, according to CRED’s Annual Disaster Statistical Review-2011, 332 disasters associated to natural extreme events were registered that killed a total of 30,773 people around the world. To put the impact of these disasters in perspective, they affected a total 244.7 million people worldwide, which is equivalent to more than 19 times the entire population of Senegal, for example, and produced economic damages estimated at US$ 366.1 billion, which is equivalent to more than 21 times the Honduras’ GDP in

Workshop programme• The PEP project: An introduction, by coordinator Marita Vos• Community approaches in crisis management: A desk study, by researcher Jenni Hyvärinen• A toolbox for Crisis Management and Communication, by Anne-Marie van het Erve• Technology options in Crisis Communication, by Matti Haataja and Helen Sullivan• Road Map discussion on gaps, challenges and chances for further development Keywords: Public Empowerment, Crisis Commmunication, Crisis Response Swiss early warning system for natural hazards WERNER, Christoph Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz BABS, Switzerland Chair(s): WERNER, Christoph [email protected] The session focus on different aspects of the early warning system in Switzerland and recent research projects regarding this issue.

J. Hess, Swiss Federal Office for the EnvironmentAfter the flood events of 2005 and 2007 in Switzerland a project for the “Optimisation of Early Warning and Alerting of Natural Hazards” OWARNA was established which encompasses a set of measures for improving the monitoring and forecasting of hazard events, alerting procedures, the provision of information to the authorities and public, and the training of intervention units. In the session, the state of the art of the project and its development will be presented.

P. Smit, Swiss Federal Office for Civil ProtectionA procedure for rapid notification and reporting of any disruption or breakdown of networks or services was developed and implemented following the floods of 2005 in Switzerland. Today the emergency call centers of the cantons as well as the control centers of the network- and service-providers are disseminating incident-based InfoFlash- and NetAlert-messages to the federal reporting and situation centre (MLZ). During the session such products as well as lessons learned during the international earthquake disaster management exercise “SEISMO 12” will be presented.

C. Schmutz, Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and ClimatologyMeteoSwiss is the national weather service of Switzerland. It is legally appointed to provide the extreme weather warnings for the federal, cantonal and municipal authorities and the public of Switzerland. The different warnings are presented as well as the basic tools, systems and organizational provisions (such as the intervention organization of MeteoSwiss) to cope with the challenges. Finally an outlook for the future development will be given.

M. Sättele, WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche ResearchIn a research project of the Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF relevant hazard processes in Switzerland in need of warning and alarm systems are identified, system relevant process knowledge is summarized. A generic system

Keywords: Disaster Risk, Risk assessment, development, development impact, decision making, capacity development, UNDP, GRIP Public empowerment policies for crisis management VOS, Marita (1); HYVÄRINEN, Jenni (1); STAL, Marc (2) 1: University of Jyväskylä, Finland; 2: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland Chair(s): VOS, Marita [email protected] This workshop is part of the EC funded FP7 project ‘Public Empowerment Policies for crisis manage-ment’ (PEP) January 2012 - December 2014. The aim of the PEP project is to investigate how the crisis response abilities of the public can be enhanced and to clarify what public empowerment policies and research priorities can further these objectives.

A general goal of crisis management is prevention and reduction of harm or damage. This is supported by the communication goals set for citizens: empowerment to act, social understanding of risks and increased cooperation. The role of communities in crisis response can be enhanced, while human technology can support preparedness training and the issuing of instructions in crisis situations. By investigating best practices in educating citizens and working with communities, taking their point of view into account, potential key enablers for public empowerment will be identified and analysed.

To identify the key enablers for public resilience, a broad overview of best practices in how authori-ties currently enhance public response abilities will be delivered. In addition the project will clarify how authorities can successfully involve social groups and communities in crisis preparedness and response. Promising developments in the use of social media and mobile services will be identified within a human technology approach, taking preferences and public acceptance into account.

PEP is a support project that will outline directions for further research and implementation in Eu-rope enhancing the crisis response abilities of the public. For this purpose the project will, next to research activities, also invite crisis management experts and researchers to participate in a dialogue about this.

The workshop will kick start the construction of a Road Map that will chart promising areas for future research and implementation supporting human resilience, by bringing together current expertise and research activities, and developing a matrix showing gaps and recommended directions. The core activity will include an online discussion forum and culminate in a seminar at the IDRC 2014 conference.

Participation in the workshop is open to all participants of IDCR interested and will be supported by invitations. To start the workshop preliminary project results will be presented The main aim of the workshop is, through an exchange of views by the participants to gain insights in promising developments enhancing community resilience and public response. In the next conference IDRC 2014 this discussion will continued based on the full project results.

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disciplines in isolation, the experience of risk reduction over the last few years has reinforced the need for more integrative approaches within the broader context of poverty reduction and sustainable development.

In particular, three disciplines are strongly interconnected due to the same and/or overlapping challenges and opportunities: Disaster risk reduction (DRR); Climate change adaptation (CCA); and Ecosystem management

But so far they have been functioning too often in disconnect: At stake is effective use of resources, as continued isolation results in duplication of efforts on the ground and damaging competition! In establishing integrated approaches not only will global policies be put into action by bringing together best practices to address multiple and converging challenges simultaneously, but also a more rapid learning process for adaptation will be facilitated.

The conceptual links between the three areas have already been established – much has been published over the last few years. Therefore, the aim is not to repeat the need for these links, which is well-known, but to demystify the concepts by breaking it down into concrete action. What does climate-sensitive disaster risk reduction mean when it comes to project activities? What do we mean exactly when we talk about ecosystem-based climate-risk reduction? Which measures have proven to be effective and what is needed to have integrative approaches? Which challenges do we face, e.g. institutional obstacles, lack of resources/ knowledge/ time?

The aim of the session is to give participants a much more concrete idea about what linking up different disciplines – disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and ecosystem management - actually means when put into practice. The focus will lie on experience from developing countries.

By the end of the session, participants will have developed a better understanding of: (1) how links were established in different project activities (tools and methods); (2) what has worked/ what has not worked and why; (3) what challenges occur and which experience exists in overcoming these

The overall approach is solution-oriented. The main target groups are practitioners and project managers from the three disciplines. Short presentations, focusing on answering the three points listed above, will provide project examples from different regions. Enough room will be given for discussions to foster peer-exchange.

Proposed session outline - AgendaWelcome and brief overview of agendaIntroductionPresenter: Thomas Piesch/ Head of Division “Recovery and rehabilitation, WFP, crisis unit”, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

Conceptual OverviewPresenter: • PD Dr. Joern Birkmann / United Nations University -

classification is provided and applied to currently operated warning and alarm systems in Switzerland. The classification forms the basis for developing a method which quantifies the overall reliability of warning and alarm systems. In the session, the state of the art of the project and first results will be presented. Keywords: BAFU Early Warning Session Capacity Building for Social-Ecological Resilience WILLIAMS, James Herbert University of Denver, United States of America Chair(s): WILLIAMS, James Herbert [email protected] study, education and practice of risks related to the sustainability, resilience and security of coupled social-ecological systems has gained ample attention and relevance in recent years. The interface of societies and ecosystems is now a key focus since true resilience can only be achieved if and when the health, functioning and sustainability of humans, animals, ecosystems and their socio-economic context are fostered, especially in a development context. The session will therefore explore novel and innovative approaches to education, capacity building and training that aim at resilience in an integrated way. Reducing social vulnerability, strengthening sustainable development pathways and stabilizing ecosystem services are discussed from a capacity and knowledge point of view.

Panelists:- Philip Tedeschi, University of Denver- Eva Wuttge, GIZ, Eschborn, Germany- Stephan Huppertz, GIZ, Eschborn, Germany- Michael Manfredo, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA- Gueladio Cisse, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland- Paul Oedraogo, Regional Director, Ramsar Convention, Gland, Switzerland- Tran Kim Long, Government of Vietnam- Andreas Rechkemmer, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Keywords: Ecosystems, Capacity Building, Social Resilience “Making the connection” – practical experiences on linking disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and ecosystem management WUTTGE, Eva Maria GIZ, Germany, Federal Republic of Chair(s): WUTTGE, Eva Maria [email protected] Within an overall global context of increased land degradation, urbanization, scarcity of resources and population growth, disasters further exacerbate existing poverty and inequality and reverse development gains. In addition, due to climate change - leading to more frequent and severe weather events such as storms, floods and droughts - communities and ecosystems are confronted with a “new” stress factor.

As a consequence, the complex nature of risk demands for holistic and solution-oriented approaches to sustainably reduce vulnerabilities and increase resilience of affected populations. While the tendency has been to treat different

[email protected];[email protected] The UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 20-22 June 2012, brought together several thousands of participants from governments, international and non-governmental organizations, the scientific community, and the private sector. Rio+20 deliberated on ways and means to reduce poverty, advance social equity and ensure environmental protection in the future. The Summit focused on seven key priority themes for sustainable development, one of which was disaster readiness. Consequently, the Rio+20 Outcome Document The Future We Want states: "We call for disaster risk reduction and building of resilience to disasters to be addressed with a renewed sense of urgency in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication, and, as appropriate, to be integrated into policies, plans, programmes, and budgets at all levels and considered within relevant future frameworks". (The Future We Want 2012) Rio+20 also addressed the necessity of enhanced interrelation, coordination and incorporation of DRR and Climate Change Adaptation. While the primary target actor groups addressed in the Outcome Document are national governments and inter-governmental processes, bottom-up action and the role of local governments as well as that of civil society do constitute corner pieces without which sustained action will be sub-optimal if not impossible.

The Session will address the outcomes of Rio+20 – both formal as well as informal ones – in terms of their relevance for the future of sustainability and global disaster risk reduction efforts in context of the Hyogo Framework. It will raise the question of whether Rio+20 has significantly strengthened DRR within the context of sustainable development policies and practices, compared to predecessor meetings such as the 1992 Earth Summit or the WSSD. The session’s eminent panelists will deliberate on the future of sustainability and on questions of linking DRR with climate change adaptation. Emphasis will be put on how to effectively implement promising strategies, on emerging themes, problems and actors and their integration, and on issues of and novel approaches to financing DRR within the broader context of sustainability.

Session speakers include:• Prof. Annegret Thieken, University of Potsdam and DKKV• PD Dr. Jörn Birkmann, United Nations University (UNU-EHS)• Prof. Bron Taylor, University of Florida and Rachel Carson Center Munich• Mr. Joao Ribeiro, General Director, National Institute for Disaster Management, Mozambique Keywords: RIO +20, Sustainability, DRR

Institute for Environment and Human Security, Head of Section “Vulnerability Assessment”Title: Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: New Challenges and New Insights from the IPCC SREX report and own StudiesApproaches and experiences from ongoing work that can inform integrated approaches

• Presenters: Mr Joao Ribeiro / General Director of the National Disasters Management (INGC) of Mozambique & Mr Elias Massicame/ Cooperation Officer, INGCTitle: not available at time of printing

• Presenter: Mr Ali Raza Rizvi/ Programme Manager Southeast Asia, IUCNTitle: Enhancing Community Resilience for Climate Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction – A Case Study from Cambodia

• Presenter: Mr. Tran Kim Long/ Deputy Director General of the International Cooperation Department in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of VietnamTitle: Integrated Management of the Mangrove Forest Ecosystem for Improved Climate Resilience in Vietnam

Discussion/Q&A Keywords: disaster risk reduction, climate change adapation, ecosystem management Models and modeling to assist capacity building for coping with very large-scale disasters YE, Qian; WANG, Ming Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People's Republic of Chair(s): WANG, Ming [email protected] The social-ecological system is a multi-equilibrium system, where random shocks can lead to a shift from one equilibrium to another one. Models of rapid disaster evaluation based on the real-time disaster information and data obtained from various means such as remote sensing images, local media, verbal information and messages from impacted regions etc. become effective and efficient tools that can be easily adopted and implemented by government and emergency agencies. These models can also be used to estimate the impacted areas and populations of the present and the near future. In this session, based on various cases in China, a new generation of models of socio-ecological systems, models that involve heterogeneous agents, combine monetary and nonmonetary processes, and display multiple equilibrium as well as shifts between them with their entry- and exit transitions, will be discussed. Keywords: model and modeling, multi-equlibrium system, social-ecological system Rio+20 and the future of sustainability and disaster risk reduction ZENTEL, Karl-OTTO (1); RECHKEMMER, Andreas (2) 1: DKKV; 2: Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos Chair(s): ZENTEL, Karl-OTTO;RECHKEMMER, Andreas

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EGGENBERGER, René . . . . . . . 122, 241-242EHRLICH, Daniele . . . . . . . . . . . 122, 241ELGIN, K. Gokhan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123ELMI, Mahmoud . . . . . . . . . . . 207, 222ELSENER METZ, Juerg. . . . . . . . . . . 189EMANA, Dr. Bezabih. . . . . . . . . . . . 108ERIKSSON, Kerstin . . . . . . . . . . . . 100ESKANDARI, Mohammad . . . . . . . . . 123ESMAIL, Zarah . . . . . . . . . . 123, 241-242ESTRELLA, Marisol . . . . . . . . . . . . 259EVE, Katherine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242EVERS, Mariele . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141FACCINCANI, Roberto . . . . . . . . . . . 174FAGGELLA, Marco . . . . . . . . . . . . 208FAKHRI BAFGHI, Bibielham . . . . . . . . 139FALEMO, Stefan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185FALLAH, Khalil . . . . . . . . . . . . 220-221FANG, Jian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124, 150FARZAD BEHTASH, Mohammad Reza . . . . 124FATHI, Leila . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165FAVA, Umberto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164FEILSTRECKER, Lais Brandao . . . . . . . 223FERLISI, Settimio . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142FERNANDO, Joe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136FERREIRA, Tiago . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124FILIPPINI, Roberto . . . . . . . . . . 127, 243FIRTH, Emily . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107FISCHER, Philipp . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125FISCHHENDLER, Itay . . . . . . . . . 125, 208FLEMING, Jean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110FLEMING, Kevin Michael . . . . . . . . . . 125FLINOIS, Géraldine . . . . . . . . . . . . 135FLORIN, Marie-Valentine . . . . . . . . 209, 242FORMAYER, H.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200FORTE, Marcello . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126FRANKE, Tobias . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232FRATTINI, Paolo . . . . . . . . . . . 120, 206FREH, Fuaad Mohammed . . . . . . . . . . 114FRIEDRICH, Hanno . . . . . . . . . . . . 206GAETANI, Francesco . . . . . . . . . . . . 126GAMBA, Paolo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127GANJEHI, Sajad. . . . . . . . . . 209, 220-221GARCIA, Javier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138GENOVESE, Elisabetta . . . . . . . . . . . 156GERONIA, Mart Cyrel . . . . . . . . . . . 194GEROSA, Giacomo . . . . . . . . . . . . 164GHADBEIGI, Vahid . . . . . . . . . . . . 213GHESQUIERE, Francis . . . . . . . . . . . 238GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios . . . . . . . 127, 243GIARDINI, Domenico . . . . . . . . . . . 127GIERSCH, Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148GIGLIOTTI, Rosario . . . . . . . . . . . . 208GILANI, Amir S . . . . . . . . . . . . 157, 217GIRGIN, Serkan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128GIROUX, Jennifer . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170GIVEHCHI, Saeed . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193GLATRON, Sandrine . . . . . . . . 128, 135, 210GLOOR, Adrian Robert . . . . . . . . . . . 128GOKCE, Oktay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230GOSLINGA, Rose . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129GOVALE, Ajay R. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129GRAAF, Rutger De . . . . . . . . . . . 129-130

CHEN, Yung-ming . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113CHINELLATO, Giulia . . . . . . . . . . . 211CHINNASWAMY, Kumar . . . . . . . . . . 204CHOI, Woo Jung. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114CHO, Jae Woong. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114CHOUDHARY, Muhammad Abbas . . . . . . 114CHUNG, Man Cheung . . . . . . . . . 114, 204CIAVOLA, Paolo . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156CLARKE, John L. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115CLOT, Nicole . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115, 239COCCA, Giampaolo . . . . . . . . . . . . 164COCHACHIN, Alejo . . . . . . . . . . . . 138COKER, Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188COMES, Tina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160COMINI, Bruna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164COPPOLA, Christopher . . . . . . . . . . . 115CORLEY, William Gene . . . . . . . . . . . 115CORSEUIL, Cláudia Weber . . . . . . . . . 223COSTA, Aníbal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124COUPET, Sidney . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115CRIPE, Douglas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126CROWLEY, Helen . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127CRUZ, Ana Maria . . . . . . . . . . . 147, 247DALLOS, Rudi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114DANIEL, Vanessa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156DARDAEI, Sadegh . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116DAS GUPTA, Partha R . . . . . . . . . . . 117DEL ALAMO GIMENEZ, Alfonso . . . . . . 223DE LANDGRAAF, Arjen . . . . . . . . . . 117DE LA POMERAI, Garry . . . . . . 117, 205, 240DELAUCHE, Marie Christine . . . . . . 118, 145DELGADO, Natalia . . . . . . . . . . . . 205DEMBÉLÉ, Niama Nango . . . . . . . . . . 180DERRON, Marc-Henri . . . . . . . . . . . 139DES MARAIS, Eric Anthony . . . . . . . 118-119DESPOTOV, Steffen . . . . . . . . . . . . 206DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan . . . . . . . 119, 206DE VERA, Rocelyn . . . . . . . . . . . . 194DIAB, Youssef . . . . . . . . . . . . 178, 184DIALLO, Boubacar . . . . . . . . . . . . 180DÍAZ, Jaime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154DÍAZ, Rogelio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101DI GENNARO, Mario . . . . . . . . . . . 149DI GIROLAMO, Amalia . . . . . . . . . . 131DIMAURO, Carmelo . . . . 108-109, 120, 206, 240DI MAURO, Manuela . . . . . . . . . . . 119DING, Xiang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231DIXIT, Amod . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208, 256DOERIG, Adolf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131DOLCE, Mauro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241DONOVANG-KUHLISCH, Margarete Charlotte . 120DONOVAN, Tim . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120DORTA, Pedro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154DRAPALIK, Markus . . . . . . . . . . . . 207DREIBACH, Joachim Franz . . . . . . . 121, 207DRESSEL, Kerstin . . . . . . . . . . . 121, 250DU, Juan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124DUMITRIU, Camelia . . . . . . . . . . . . 122DURSKI, Kara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107EBRAHIMZADEH, Hesam . . . . . . . . . 218ECKLE, Petrissa . . . . . . . . . . . . 111, 122EFTYCHIDIS, George . . . . . . . . . . . 254

ABDULKADIR, Aishetu . . . . . . . . . . 198ABEDIN, Md. Anwarul . . . . . . . . . . . 100ABE, Miwa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198ABPARVAR, Ahamd . . . . . . . . . . . . 222ABRAHAM, Philip. . . . . . . . . . . . . 105ABRAHAMSSON, Marcus . . . . . . . . . 100AEBISCHER, Christina . . . . . . . . . . . 100AERTS, Jeroen . . . . . . . . . . 110, 156, 169AFRAD, Md. Safiul Islam . . . . . . . . . . 198AFSOUS, Mahmood . . . . . . . . . . . . 218AGHABABAEI, Mohammad Taghi . . . . . . 124AGHABABAEI, Muhammad Taghi . . . . . . 199AGUILAR, Antonio . . . . . . . . . . . . 209AGUSTIONO, Emil . . . . . . . . . . . . 101AHMADI, Babak . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209AHMADNEZHAD, Elham. . . . . . . . . . 102AHMED, Atiq K. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181AL AMIN, Mohammed . . . . . . . . . . . 229ALARCÓN, Pablo . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199ALARCÓN, Patricia . . . . . . . . . . 101, 199ALBERS, J.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200ALDRICH, Stephen C. . . . . . . . . . . . 101ALEXANDER, David . . . . . . . . . . . 257AL KHUDAIRY, delilah Helen . . . . . . . . 101ALKHUDHAIRY, Delilah . . . . . . . . . . 257ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry . . 118, 144-145ALLIA, Khedidja . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200AL-MOMANI, Ayman Hassan . . . . . . . . 102ALVARADO-CORONA, Rafael . . . . . . . 219AMBS, Peter . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102, 257ANDERSSON-SKÖLD, Yvonne . . . . . 185, 212ANDREEV, Iouli . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148ANREEVA, Irina . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148ARDALAN, Ali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102ARNAUD, Jean-Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . 184ARNOLD, Delia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177ARNOLD, Nikolaus . . . . . . . . . . 103, 177ARNOLD, Philippe. . . . . . . . . . . . . 103ARPACI, Alexander Duran. . . . . . . . . . 200ASAMI, Yasushi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106ASGARY, Ali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104ATIGHECHIAN, Golrokh . . . . . . . . . . 233AUGENSTEIN, Jared. . . . . . . . . . . . 155AUZET, Anne Véronique . . . . . . . . . . 210AZIN, Seyed Ali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102AZIZI, Amir . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104BACA, Abigail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175BACH, Claudia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104BADRI, Seyed Ali . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228BAGHBANNEZHAD, Abolghassem. . . . . . 104BAGHERI ZNOZ, Baharak . . . . . . . . . 207BAHRAMI, Hossein Ali . . . . . . . . . . . 215BALSTER, Andreas . . . . . . . . . . . . 206BANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri . . . . . . . . . 201BANIZAMANLARI, Farhad . . . . . . . . . 201BARBARINO, Simona . . . . . . . . . . . 164BARTHELT, Christian H. . . . . . . . . . . 104BATEN, Mohammed Abdul . . . . . . . . . 202BATHAEE, Reza . . . . . . . . . . . 105, 183BAUR, Esther . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238BAVANDPOR, Behrooz . . . . . . . . . 220-221BAYER, Joanne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya . . . . . . . . . . 202BECK, A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200BECKER, Nina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156BECKER, Per . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna . . . . . . 105, 203BELOW, Regina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256BELTRAN, Jose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199BENGTSSON, Per-Evert . . . . . . . . . . 185BENOUAR, Djillali . . . . . . . . . . . . 106BERGMAN, Ramona . . . . . . . . . . . . 212BERNHARDT, Alex . . . . . . . . . . . . 158BERNIER, Suzanne Naomi . . . . . . . . . 106BERSE, Kristoffer . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106BERTHERAT, Eric . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107BHADRA, Manash Ronjan . . . . . . . 107, 203BHANDARI, Mandeep . . . . . . . . . . . 217BHAT, Gopalakrishna . . . . . . . . . . 107, 224BIANCHI, Cinzia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176BILLINGTON, Rex . . . . . . . . . . . . 151BIRKMANN, Joern . . . . . . . . . . . . 108BLACKWELL, Nikki. . . . . . . . 118, 144-145BLASCHKE, Thomas. . . . . . . . . . . . 171BLASER, Lilian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137BOE, Kaia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259BOISSONNADE, Auguste C.. . . . . . . 158, 171BOKA, Gutu Tesso . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108BOTZEN, Wouter . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110BOUCHON, Sara . . . . . . . 108-109, 206, 240BOUWER, Laurens M. . . . . . . . . . . . 156BOZORGIMAKARANI, RezaAli . . . . . 203-204BRAAKHEKKE, Erie . . . . . . . . . . . 105BRAGA, Franco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208BROCK, Maximilian . . . . . . . . . . . . 109BROIMSHOEVA, Rukhshona . . . . . . 214-215BRÜNDL, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137BRUSAMOLINO, Luigi. . . . . . . . . . . 109BRYNER, Vivienne . . . . . . . . . . . . 110BUBECK, Philip. . . . . . . . 110, 156, 169, 214BUCHECKER, Matthias . . . . . . . . . . 110BUHNE, Neil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238BULDRINI, Marco . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120BURGHERR, Peter. . . . . . . . . 111, 122, 128BUTCHER, Tom. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120BYNANDER, Fredrik. . . . . . . . . . 111, 132CALANDRI, Fabrizio. . . . . . . . . . . . 164CALLENS, Stéphane . . . . . . . . 118, 144-145CAMACHO, Belen . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181CANE, Daniele . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164CAPARAS, Paulo . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194CAPISTRANO, Melgabal . . . . . . . . . . 111CARLUCCI, Michele . . . . . . . . . . . . 174CARNEGIE, Michelle . . . . . . . . . . . 186CARUSO, Antonio . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230CASAROTTI, Chiara . . . . . . . . . . . . 112CASCINI, Leonardo . . . . . . . . . . . . 142CASPI, Guy . . . . . . . . . . . 112, 223, 255CASTLE, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238CECCHINI, Alberto . . . . . . . . . . . . 208CHANG, Sheng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113CHEN, Lei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189CHEN, Liang-chun . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113CHEN, Ted Yu Shen . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

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MA, Liang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina . . . . . 213, 215MANGALAGIU, Diana . . . . . . . . . 249-250MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien . . . . . . . 152, 254MANNINEN, Annika . . . . . . . . . . . . 213MARCH, Alan Peter . . . . . . . . . . 152, 216MARCHUK, Andrey . . . . . . . . . . . . 153MARÇOT, Nathalie . . . . . . . . . . . . 153MARININ, Igor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153MARIN, Wilmer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219MARKANTONIS, Vasileios . . . . . . . . . 156MARTHALER, Esther . . . . . . . . . . . 153MARTINEZ, Simeona . . . . . . . . . . . 194MARTÍN, Sebastián . . . . . . . . . . . . 154MASAUD, Ansa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade . . . . 155, 216MASOOMI, Gholamreza . . . . . . . . . . 102MATTEIS, Tilman . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109MAYER, Pablo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154MCADOO, Brian G. . . . . . . . . . . . . 155MCBRIDE, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151MCCOLL, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220MCGRATH, Riona . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155MCLENNAN, Blythe . . . . . . . . . . . . 133MEGAWATI, Kusnowidjaja . . . . . . . . . 119MEHMOOD, Kashif . . . . . . . . . . . . 114MEISSEN, Ulrich . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250MENDES DA SILVA, J.A.R. . . . . . . . . . 124MENDES, Miguel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165MEUTSCH, Anja . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156MEYER, Volker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156MEYER, Walter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189MICHAUX, Edouard . . . . . . . . . . . . 122MIGLIORINI, Massimo . . . . . . . . . . . 164MILLER, James Patrick . . . . . . . . . . . 216MIRGON, Carola . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153MIRMOHAMMAD HOSSEINI, Kiandokht . . . 217MISHRA, Anil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251MITCHELL, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . 157, 251MITLETON-KELLY, Eve . . . . . . . . . . 232MITRA, Swati. . . . . . . . . . . . . 157, 217MIYAMOTO, H Kit . . . . . . . . . . . . 157MOGHIMI, Sanam . . . . . . . . . . . 123, 218MOHAJERAN, Mahsa . . . . . . . . . . . 163MOHAMED, Tabyaoui . . . . . . . . . . . 158MOHAMMADI, Bahram malek. . . . . . 220-221MOHAMMADI, Sakineh . . . . . . . . 159, 218MOHAMMADI, Seyed Abolfazl . . . . . . . 218MOLIN-VALDES, Helena . . . . . . . . 158, 242MONTI, Giorgio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208MORENO, Daniel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219MORTGAT, Christian P. . . . . . . . . . . . 158MOSSELMANS, Michael Lodowick . . . . . . 159MOTA-HERNANDEZ, Dra. Cinthya Ivonne. . . 219MOUSAVI, S.Mostafa . . . . . . . . . . . 218MOZAFARI, Abdollah . . . . . . . . . 159, 218MRAZ, Gabriele . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177MUHAMMAD TSOWA, Usman . . . . . . . 198MUIR-WOOD, Robert . . . . . . . . . . . 159MUKASA, Abass . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160MUKHIER, Mohammed Omer . . . . . . . . 160MULERO CHAVES, Javier . . . . . . . . . 165

KLAFFT, Michael . . . . . . . . . . . 146, 250KOBIYAMA, Masato . . . . . . . . . . . . 223KOCSIS, Otto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146KOIRALA, Pashupati Nath . . . . . . . . . 146KOLER, Andreas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147KÖLLNER-HECK, Pamela . . . . . . . . . 137KONG, Albert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104KONG, Feng . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147, 178KORVENRANTA, Tiina. . . . . . . . . 213-214KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth . . . . . . 128, 147, 247KREIBICH, Heidi . . . . . . . . . 110, 156, 214KRENITSKY, Nicole . . . . . . . . . . . . 155KRIVOROTKO, Olga . . . . . . . . . . . 153KROMP-KOLB, Helga . . . . . . . 148, 177, 223KROMP, Wolfgang . . . . . . . 148, 177, 207, 223KULL, Daniel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175KULL, Isabelle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184KUMAR, Hari . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208KUNDAK, Seda . . . . . . . . . . . . 148, 248LAGANIER, Richard . . . . . . . . 178, 184, 257LAGUNA MEGAL, Luis Miguel . . . . . . . 214LALANI, Farrukh Salim . . . . . . . . . . . 214LARI, Serena . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206LATASCH, Leo . . . . . . . . . . 149, 223, 255LATERZA, Michelangelo . . . . . . . . . . 208LATHAM, Stephen J. . . . . . . . . . . . . 248LEHNING, Micheal . . . . . . . . . . . . 234LEIDINGER, D. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200LEIS, Carmen . . . . . . . . . . . 149-150, 255LEI, Yongdeng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113LEONARD, Justin . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152LEON, Esteban . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238LE PERFF, Hervé . . . . . . . . . 118, 144-145LEQUEUX, Quentin . . . . . . . . . . . . 156LHOMME, Serge . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178LIANG, Shunlin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178LIMA CARAMEZ, Manolo . . . . . . . . . 223LI, Man . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147, 150LIMKATANYU, Suchart . . . . . . . . . . 208LINDENTHAL, Thomas . . . . . . . . . . 148LI, Ning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190LI, Qunfang. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113LI, Zhi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231LOCHER, Peter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137LOCHNER, Bernhard. . . . . . . . . . . . 156LODI, Sarosh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208LOGAR, Ivana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156LONG, Tran Kim . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151LOSAPIO, Lucio Pantaleo . . . . . . . . . . 174LOSTER, Thomas R. . . . . . . . . . . . . 104LOVE, Gavin John . . . . . . . . . 151, 215, 249LOVELOCK, Kirsten Marina . . . . . . . . . 151LUKKUNAPRASIT, Panitan . . . . . . . . . 208LUKOWICZ, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232LU, Lili . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178LU, Yanli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215MAAINUDDIN, Golam . . . . . . . . . . . 181MACCARINI, Marciano . . . . . . . . . . 223MACINNES, Iain Hay . . . . . . . . . . . 152MAHRDADI, Naser . . . . . . . . . . . . 203MAIDL, Elisabeth . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110MAIR, Volkmar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

HUA, Zhenyang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189HUERLIMANN, Maja . . . . . . . . . . . 138HU, Fuyu. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210HUGGEL, Christian . . . . . . . . . . . . 138HUPPERTZ, Stephan . . . . . . . . . . . . 245HUTU, Carmen Aida . . . . . . . . . . . . 122HYVÄRINEN, Jenni . . . . . . . . . . . . 261IASIO, Christian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211ILAGAN, Marie Joyce . . . . . . . . . . . 194INNOCENTI, Demetrio . . . . . . . . . . . 246ISLAM, Rabiul . . . . . . . . . . . . 107, 203IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. . . . . . . . . 139, 211JABOYEDOFF, Michel . . . . . . . . . . . 139JACOBZONE, Stéphane . . . . . . . . . . . 139JAEGER, Carlo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257JAFARI, Gelareh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102JAHANGIRI, Katayoun . . . . . . . . . . . 139JALALI, Gholam Reza . . . . . . . . . . . 159JALAL, Sabeena . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204JALDELL, Henrik . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212JANCLOES, Michel . . . . . . . . . . . . 107JAQUET, Stephanie . . . . . . . . . . . . 139JEDDI, Seyed Majid . . . . . . . . . . . . 159JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed . . . . . . 140, 211JIN, YunYun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140JOEHR, Anton . . . . . . . . . . . . 100, 239JOHANNESSEN, Åse . . . . . . . . . . . 133JOHANSSON, Magnus . . . . . . . . . 141, 212JOHNSON, Cassidy . . . . . . . . . . . . 246JOHNSTON, David . . . . . . . . . . . . 144KABANIKHIN, Sergey . . . . . . . . . . . 153KACHALI, Hlekiwe . . . . . . . . . . . . 141KADIOGLU, Mikdat . . . . . . . . . . . . 141KAGAWA, Fumiyo . . . . . . . . . . . 142, 177KAILIPONI, Paul . . . . . . . . . 142, 212-213KAJITANI, Yoshio . . . . . . . . . . . 142, 182KALSNES, Bjørn . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142KALTENBRUNNER, Katharina Anna . . . . . 105KANAK, NNM Mujibuddaula Sardar Kanak 107, 203KARANTH, Anup . . . . . . . . . . . 107, 224KARAS, Adel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153KARIMI KIVI, Hamid . . . . . . . . . . . 213KARIMZADEH, Morteza . . . . . . . . . . 165KARNAWATI, Dwikorita . . . . . . . . . . 143KASSAM, Fatima . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143KATARIA, Shailesh . . . . . . . . . . . . 246KAVTARADZE, Dmitry . . . . . . . . . . 143KAZEMZADEH, Mohammad Bagher . . . . . 213KELLERHALS, Christian . . . . . . . . . . 144KELLER, Nicole. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127KEMPER, Thomas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122KENNEY, Christine Marie . . . . . . . . . . 144KETEMA, Dr. Mengistu . . . . . . . . . . . 108KEUSEN, Hansrudolf. . . . . . . . . . . . 132KEYNEJHAD, Mohammad Ali . . . . . . . . 124KHALLAF, Nezha . . . . . . . . . 118, 144-145KHAN, Najib Ullah . . . . . . . . . . . . 204KHIDASHELI, David. . . . . . . . . . . . 153KIM, Dong Seag . . . . . . . . . . 137, 145, 165KIM, Jin_Seon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213KING, Malcolm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169KINGSMILL-VELLACOTT, Anna . . . . . . 145

GRAF, Frank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130GRANADO, Carolina. . . . . . . . . . 209, 219GRANDO, Ângela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223GRAN, Hans-Christian . . . . . . . . . 130, 257GRASSO, Veronica . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189GREEN, Colin . . . . . . . . . . 130, 156, 209GRIFFIN, Jonathan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119GRIMAN, Cristobal . . . . . . . . . . . . 219GRIMMA, L.N. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200GROENHART, Lucy . . . . . . . . . . . . 152GROSS, Wendelin . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109GRUBER, C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200GRUBER, Marco . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131GUARNACCI, Ugo . . . . . . . . . . . . 131GUDMESTAD, Ove Tobias . . . . . . . . . 163GUFLER, Klaus . . . . . . . . . . . . 103, 177GULATI, Naresh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157GUZZETTI, Fausto . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176HABIBA, Umma . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131HABIBI, Kiomarth . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227HAEBERLI, Wilfried . . . . . . . . . . . . 138HAEMMIG, Christoph . . . . . . . . . . . 132HAGELSTEEN, Magnus . . . . . . . . . . 132HÄKKINEN, Markku T . . . . . . . . . 228, 258HALKIA, Stamatia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122HALLDIN, Sven. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132HALLEGATTE, Stéphane . . . . . . . . . . 156HAMA, Angela Michiko . . . . . . . . . . 147HANDGRAAF, Michel . . . . . . . . . . . 186HANDMER, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133HAN, Guoyi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133HANSSON, Max . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141HAQUE, C. Emdad . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185HARPER, David Ross . . . . . . . . . . . 133HASHEMZADEH, Abolfazl . . . . . . . . . 207HASSEL, Henrik . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100HASTAK, Makarand PhD, PE, CCE . . . . . . 167HAYDEN, Cristina . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109HAYS, Walter West . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134HAZZANI, Gideon . . . . . . . . . . . 134, 254HEDELIN, Beatrice . . . . . . . . . . . . 135HEIDARI, Morteza . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213HEINEMANN, Simone . . . . . . . . . . . 210HEISS, Julia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244HEITZ, Carine . . . . . . . . . . . . 135, 210HENSELI, Marius . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190HERNANDO, Hilton . . . . . . . . . . . . 135HERRERO, Jose . . . . . . . . . . . . 136, 254HE, Shuai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134, 192HESS, Josef. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L . . . . . . . . 136HE, Yongnian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210HIGASHI, Rafael Augusto dos Reis . . . . . . 223HIRSCHBERG, Stefan . . . . . . . . . . . 111HOFMANN, Rebecca. . . . . . . . . . . . 137HOHMANN, Roland . . . . . . . . . . . . 137HOLTHAUSEN, Niels . . . . . . . . . . . 137HONG, Sung Jin . . . . . . . . . . 137, 145, 165HOPMEIER, Michael . . . . . . . . . . 223-224HOQUE, Md. Enamul. . . . . . . . . . . . 198HOUSHYANI, Bamshad . . . . . . . . . . 218HUANG, Xiaoyun . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192

270 271


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hor I

ndex

SMALL, Michael Kenneth . . . . . . . . . . 120SMIRNOVA, Tatyana Yurevna . . . . . . . . 228SOBANI, Abdollah . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163SODEN, Robert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175SOILLE, Pierre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122SOLAIMANI, Roghaieh . . . . . . . . . . . 228SPACONE, Enrico . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208STAATZ, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180STAL, Marc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261STEEN, Nicolai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181STENSTRÖM, Thor Axel . . . . . . . . . . 133STIRANO, Federico . . . . . . . . . . . . 164STOESSEL, Franz . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238STOJANOVSKI, Pane . . . . . . . . . . . 158STOLZ, Nicole . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239STRADA, Claudia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211STURUP, Sophie. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216SUBEDI, Jishnu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208SUDMEIER-RIEUX, Karen I . . . . . . . . 139SULLIVAN, Helen T . . . . . . . . . . 228, 258SUMAR, Salim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181SUN, Shao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147, 229SUTTER, Philipp . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177SWARTLING, Åsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133SYED, Md. Abu . . . . . . . . . . . . 181, 229TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan . . . . . . . . 182, 229TAJBAKHSHSHISHVAN, Shabnam . . . . . . 222TAJ, Laila Naz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181TAKEUCHI, Yukiko . . . . . . . . . . 131, 198TAN, Eu Chye . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192TAN, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171TATANO, Hirokazu . . . . . . . . 142, 182, 247TAUCER, Fabio Federico . . . . . . 168, 182, 258TAVAKOLI, Pourya . . . . . . . . . . . . 215TAYLOR, Genevieve . . . . . . . . . . . . 183TEHLER, Henrik . . . . . . . . . . . 100, 203TEIMOORI, Hossein . . . . . . . . . . . . 183TETIK, Cigdem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230THALER, Thomas A. . . . . . . . . . . . . 230THIEKEN, Annegret H. . . . . . . . . . . . 156THOMALLA, Frank . . . . . . . . . . . . 186THOMPSON, Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156THRALLS, Michael Kellyn . . . . . . . . . 183THUMMARUKUDY, Muralee . . . . . . . . 259TIKHOMIROV, Alexei . . . . . . . . . . . 230TINGIN, Neil Eneri . . . . . . . . . . . . 194TOBLER, Daniel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184TONG, Thi My Thi . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184TOUBIN, Marie . . . . . . . . . . . . 178, 184TOWERS, Briony Clare . . . . . . . . . . . 185TREMBLAY, Marius . . . . . . . . . . . . 185TRIANTAFILLOU, Thanasis . . . . . . . . . 208TRÖSTER, Gerhard . . . . . . . . . . . . 232TRUCCO, Paolo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108TRUFANOV, Andrey . . . . . . . . . . . . 230TSCHURR, Simon . . . . . . . . . . . 259-260TUCKER, Brian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119TUFEKCI, Mustafa Kemal . . . . . . . . . . 230TURKOGLU, Handan . . . . . . . . . . . 185UDDIN, Mohammed Salim . . . . . . . . . 185UDU-GAMA, Natasha Marie . . . . . . . . . 186UMEROV, Rustem . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230

SADEGHIAN, Alireza . . . . . . . . . . . 163SADEGHI KOMJANI, Niloofar . . . . . . . 123SADIGHI, Jila . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139SAFI, Mohammad Dost . . . . . . . . . . . 208SAILER, R. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200SAITO, Keiko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175SALEH, Alida . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175, 225SALEH, Fatemeh . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176SALEHI, Esmaeil . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199SALVADOR, Emanuele . . . . . . . . . . . 126SALVATI, Paola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176SALVATORE, Walter . . . . . . . . . . . . 208SALZMANN, Nadine. . . . . . . . . . . . 138SAMARAWICKRAMA, Saman. P . . . . . . 136SANDZER-BELL, Benjamin . . . . . . . . . 221SANTOS-REYES, Jaime . . . . . . . . . . 219SARMADI, Hajar . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199SARVAR, Mohammad . . . . . . . . . . . 102SASS, O. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200SCHANNE, Michael . . . . . . . . 176, 241-242SCHEUER, Jo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256SCHLEISS, Anton . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138SCHMALE, Matthias . . . . . . . . . . . . 176SCHNARWILER, Reto . . . . . . . . . . . 256SCHNEIDER, Demian . . . . . . . . . . . 138SCHOCH-SPANA, Monica Lynn . . . . . . . 226SCHRECKENBERG, Stephan . . . . . . 177, 242SCHUELE, Steffen . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121SCHULTMANN, Frank . . . . . . . . . . . 160SCHWARZE, Reimund . . . . . . . . . . . 156SCOLOBIG, Anna . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142SEAL, Lubna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202SEIBERT, Petra . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177SELBY, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142, 177SEMINATI, Paolo . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120SERRE, Damien . . . . . . . . . . 178, 184, 257SEVILLE, Erica . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141SHABA, Haliru Ayuba . . . . . . . . . . . 198SHAH, Haresh C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171SHAKIB, Hamzeh . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116SHANG, Lou . . . . . . . . . . . 118, 144-145SHANG, Yanrui . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226SHAW, Duncan . . . . . . . . . . . . 142, 212SHAW, Rajib . . . . . . . 100, 131, 184, 186, 198SHEN, Haifeng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226SHEPHERD, Daniel . . . . . . . . . . . . 151SHEYBANY, Farzam . . . . . . . . . . . . 222SHIEH, Esmaeil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227SHI, Peijun . . 124, 140, 147, 150, 178, 191, 229, 257SHI, Qinqing . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178, 234SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki . . . . . . 179, 226-227SHOLLY, Steven C. . . . . . . . . . . . . 103SHUAI, Jiabing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178SHUBNIKOV, Evgeniy . . . . . . . . . . . 230SIDERMAN-WOLTER, Kirk . . . . . . . . . 145SIEBER, Jeannette . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179SIKICH, Geary Wayne . . . . . . . . . . . 180SILVOLA, Sointu . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213SIMONART, Tristan . . . . . . . . . . . . 257SIMONIAN, Guillaume . . . . . . . . . 180, 244SINGH, Nagendra . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111SKANDARI, Mohamad amin . . . . . . . . . 227

PETSETI, Aglaia. . . . . . . . . . . . 167, 223PFEIL, Patricia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121PFURTSCHELLER, Clemens . . . . . . . . 156PHIBBS, Suzanne Rachel . . . . . . . . . . 144PICKL, Stefan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168PINCHA, Chaman . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220PINTO, Artur . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168, 258PIRBABAEI, Mohammad Taghi . . . . . . . 124PITILAKIS, Kyriazis . . . . . . . . . . . . 168PLACHETKA, Uwe . . . . . . . . . . . . 223PLA, Francesc . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169, 246POORYARI, Maghsood . . . . . . . . . . . 193PORTOCARRERO, César . . . . . . . . . . 138POSPICHAL, Bernhard . . . . . . . . . . . 207POURYARI, Maghsoud . . . . . . . . . . . 201POUSSIN, Jennifer . . . . . . . . . . . 156, 169PRASANNA, Raj . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169PRIOR, Tim . . . . . . . . . . . 169-170, 242PROBST, Thomas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137PRZYLUSKI, Valentin . . . . . . . . . . . 156PÜTZ, Marco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137RADMEHR, Hamed . . . . . . . . . . . . 213RAFALOWSKI, Chaim . 170-171, 223, 254-255, 257RAFIQ, Lubna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171RAHATI, Ameneh . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202RAHIMI GHASABEH, Saeid . . . . . . . . 202RAHMAN, A.K.M. Atiqur . . . . . . . . 181, 229RAHMAN, Zillur . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208RAJAEI, Mohammad Hossein . . . . . . 102-103RAJASEKAR, Umamaheshwaran . . . . . 107, 224RAMBAUD, Alexandre . . . . . . . . . . . 221RATNASOORIYA, Harsha. . . . . . . . . . 136RAWAL, Sonia A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171RAY-BENNETT, Nibedita Shankar . . . . . . 172RECHKEMMER, Andreas . . . . . . . . 172, 263REGO, Loy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238REID, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144RENN, Ortwin . . . . . . . . . . . . 172, 242REZA AHMAD NASAB, Mohammad . . . . . 222REZAEI, Ali Akbar . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187REZA SHARIF VAGHEFI, Hamid . . . . . . 222RIVAS, Pablo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254RIZVI, Ali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173RODGERS, Ian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173RODYGYNA, Albina . . . . . . . . . . . . 230ROGGEN, Daniel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232ROHOLLAHI, Mahboobeh . . . . . . . . . 213ROHRER, Mario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138ROMERO, Carmen . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154ROOZE, Magda W. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173ROSEMARIN, Arno . . . . . . . . . . . . 133ROSSI, Mauro. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra . . . . . . . 174, 230ROUSSY, Sandrine . . . . . . . . . . . 224-225ROVINS, Jane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106ROZAN, Anne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210RUBEN, Cecilia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133RUDGE, James . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188RUDLOFF, Alexander . . . . . . . . . . . 174RUSLANJARI, Dina . . . . . . . . . . . . 174SABAGHZADEH, Hossein . . . . . . . . . 225SADAUKI, Abubakar . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

MULLER, Joel . . . . . . . . . . 118, 144-145MÜLLER, M. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200MÜNZBERG, Thomas . . . . . . . . . . . 160MURPHY, Eila Sinikka . . . . . . . . . . . 161MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . 161-162, 219, 252MURRAY-JONES, Douglas . . . . . . . . . 246MURTI, Radhika. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259MURTY, Tad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162MYSIAK, Jaroslav . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246NABARRO, David . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253NADERI PEYKAM, Mehdi . . . . . . . . . 213NADIM, Farrokh . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142NAJARI, Alireza. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209name . . . . . . . . 121, 159, 172, 194, 227, 248NASRULLAH, Muazzam . . . . . . . . . . 204NAZARIHA, Mehrdad . . . . . . . . . 213, 218NEKTARIOS, Milton . . . . . . . . . . . . 223NESLIHANOGLU, Serdar . . . . . . . . . . 220NEUSSNER, Olaf . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna . . . . . 162, 220, 253NIE, Jianliang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150NIRUPAMA, Niru . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162NIXON, Michael. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163NJAA, Ove . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163NOCCETI, Manuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101NOJAVAN, Mehdi . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163NOROOZI, Belal . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije . . . . 209, 220-221NORRIS, Richard . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110NUZULIA, Yorsi . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221NYBERG, Lars . . . . . . . . . . . . 141, 212ÖBERG, Mats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185OCHIAI, Chiho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163OLIVERI, Stefano . . . . . . . . . . . 120, 164OLIVERO, Sergio . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164OMIDVAR, Babak . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218ORNAF, Julia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221ORTIZ, Carlos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199ORTNER, Stefan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147OSUNA MILLÁN, José Guadalupe . . . . 238, 256OXLEY, Marcus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164OYEDELE, Lukumon. . . . . . . . . . . . 155OZENER, Suleman Kaan . . . . . . . . . . 230PALEY, Belen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181PÅLSSON, Anders . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133PANAHI, Ali . . . . . . . . . . . 165, 207, 222PAPYRAKIS, Elissaios . . . . . . . . . . . 156PARK, Hyoung Seong . . . . . . . . . 145, 165PARK, Ki Jong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222PÁRRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina . . . . . . . . 250PARRINELLO, Giacomo . . . . . . . . . . 166PARVARESH, Mohammd . . . . . . . . . . 222PASUPULETI, Ram Sateesh . . . . . . . . . 166PATEL, Saumyang M . . . . . . . . . . . . 167PATON, Douglas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144PAVESE, Alberto . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112PERCH-NIELSEN, Sabine. . . . . . . . . . 137PEREIRA REGINATTO, Gisele Marilha . . . . 223PERSSON, Erik . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212PESARESI, Martino . . . . . . . . . . . . 122PETAL, Marla . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167PETERSEN, Kurt . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

272 273


Aut

hor I

ndex

YIN, Yuanyuan . . . . . . . . . . . . 192, 234YIN, Zhane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189YUAN, Xiaoxiang . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231YUE, YaoJie . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192-193YU, Han . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234ZACCONE, Andrea . . . . . . . . . . . . 108ZAKER, Nasser H. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139ZAMANI, Elham . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213ZAMANIFAR, Milad . . . . . . . . . . 193, 225ZARE, Ali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215ZARE BIDAKI, Rafat . . . . . . . . . . . 234ZELTZER, Matthew . . . . . . . . . . . . 155ZENTEL, Karl-OTTO . . . . . . . 193, 246, 263ZEPPOS, John. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193ZHANG, Li . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109, 206ZHANG, Xuechi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192ZHAO, Jintao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192ZHOU, Yao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194ZHOU, Yin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194ZHOU, Yuan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238ZOLETA-NANTES, Doracie Baldovino . . . . 194ZONOOBI, Vahid . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

UY, Noralene Menchavez . . . . . . . . . . 186VACIK, H. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200VALIZADEH, Reza . . . . . . . . . . . . 165VAN DEN BERGH, Jeroen C. J. M. . . . . . . 156VANDYCK, Rafael . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238VAN STAVEREN, Martijn Floris . . . . . . . 231VAN VOORST, Roanne . . . . . . . . . . . 186VARGO, John . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141VARUM, Humberto . . . . . . . . . . 124, 208VASKOUIE, Khorshid . . . . . . . . . . . 102VASQUEZ, Raquel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209VAZIRPOUR, Shabbou . . . . . . . . . . . 187VIAVATTENE, Christophe . . . . 130, 156, 209, 230VICENTE, Romeu . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124VIENS, A.M. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187VILLACIS, Carlos . . . . . . . 189, 238, 256, 260VILLANUEVA HOLM-NIELSEN, Pablo . . . . 231VINH, Dang The. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187VON MEDING, Jason . . . . . . . . . . . 155VOS, Marita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261WANG, Jing’ai . . . . . . . . 113, 192, 194, 234WANG, Jing’ai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178WANG, Ming . . . . . . . . . . . 140, 191, 263WANG, Xiaoqing . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231WANNOUS, Chadia . . . . . . . . . . . . 253WARD, Philip J. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169WATSON, Samantha . . . . . . . . . . . . 188WEBLER, Heinrich . . . . . . . . . . . . 188WEERESINGHE, Shayani . . . . . . . . . . 188WENISH, Antonia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177WEN, Jiahong . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189, 256WERNER, Christoph . . . . . . . . . . . . 261WERNER, Heiko . . . . . . . . . . . 189, 257WIBOWO, Agus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119WIJERATNE, Nimal . . . . . . . . . . . . 136WILHELM, Mario . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189WILLIAMS, James Herbert . . . . . . . . . 262WILLI, Christian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189WINTZ, Maurice . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210WIRTZ, Angelika . . . . . . . . . . . 190, 238WIRZ, Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232WU, Jidong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190WU, Jie-Ying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190WUTTGE, Eva Maria . . . . . . . . . . . . 262WYSS, Max . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191, 232XIAO, Yan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208XU, Wei . . . . . . . . . . . 124, 178, 194, 210YANG, Jingpo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226YANG, Lili . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169YANG, Saini . . . . . . . . . . . 134, 140, 192YANG, Wentao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191YAN, Jianping . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189, 260YAN, Lijun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189, 232YARMOHAMMADIAN, Mohammad Hossein . . 233YAVAR, Bijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191, 233YEE, Chow Fah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192YE, Jiayuan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134, 192YE, Qian . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233, 249, 263YE, Tao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150YE, Xinyue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192YILMAZ, Didem Gunes . . . . . . . . . . . 234YINGMIN, Li . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208

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