GLOBEC – InternationalGLOBEC – InternationalIntegration & Synthesis Activities Integration & Synthesis Activities

Steps to place GLOBEC in a Steps to place GLOBEC in a Climate Change context Climate Change context

• Existing Programs • New Programs•Future Projections

Global sponsors Regional sponsors

ESSAS

Southern Ocean GLOBECCLIOTOP

CCCCCCC

SPACCGLOBEC: a Regionally-implemented programme

NEMURO LTL

• A consensus conceptual model was designed representing the minimum trophic structure and biological relationships … thought to be essential in describing ecosystem dynamics in the North Pacific

North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional

Oceanography

Yamanaka et al. (2005)

NEMURO.FISH

50-year hindcast to look at “Regime Shift” signals

in fish populations

(Recent request from NOAA to PICES for advice on Regime Shifts – FERRRS Report)

uMN

L-1

0.084

0.088

0.092

g ye

ar-1

0

40

80

o C

9.510.010.511.011.5

0.048

0.052

0.056

0.060

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000.14

0.16

0.18

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

WCVI

Herring growth rate (age 3 to 4)

Temperature

Small zooplankton

Large zooplankton

Predatory zooplankton

Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.

Summary of time series

All three eastern Pacific locations show a shift in late 70’s:

• Herring growth increased in Bering Sea, but decreased in WCVI and PWS

• Temperatures warmed at each location

• Predatory zooplankton decreased

WCVI

PWS

B. Sea

West Coast Vancouver Island:

Zooplankton variation is most important (Temperature effect small)

Prince William Sound:

Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Zooplankton effect dominantBering Sea:

Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Temperature effect dominant

Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.

ESSP Open Science Conference

Marine Ecosystems: Trends, Feedbacks, and Predicting Future States9-12 Nov. 2006

Future Projection of Ecosystem Change

in the Western North PacificFuture Projection of Ecosystem Change

in the Western North Pacific

Taketo Hashioka1, Yasuhiro Yamanaka1,2,

Takashi T. Sakamoto2 and Fumitake Shido1 (1. Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University )(2. Frontier Research System for Global Change )

Thank to Dr. Maki Noguchi Aita for providing figures.

General Hypothesis :Ecosystem Change Associated with Global Warming

2/13

Ocean Acidification

Decrease in CaCO3 Producerby the Lower PH

(This process is not included in our model)

To predict the ecosystem change quantitatively…

We need to understand, firstly, which process is more essential for ecosystem change,

and secondly,how the ecosystem seasonally and regionally

responds to global warming.

Ocean General Circulation Model 　＊ CCSR Ocean Component model (Hasumi et al., 2002)＊ Horizontal resolution: 1o x 1o degrees

Ecosystem Model＊ 15-Compartment model extended from NEMURO (Yamanaka et al., 2004)

Boundary conditions for present-day sim.＊ Monthly mean climatology from data-sets of OMIP and WOA 01

Purpose of This Study

To predict the response of the lower-trophic level ecosystem to global warming, we conducted and compared

the present-day and global warming experiments, using a 3-D NEMURO in the western North Pacific.

SeaWiFS AnnualMean

Chl-a Conc.

Model Domain (20-60oN, 115-170oE)

Kuroshio Current

OyashioCurrent

< Setting of our model >

5/13

A data set of simulated fields according to the IS92a G.W. scenario,which contributed to the IPCC 3rd report.

(conducted by CCSR/NIES COAGCM ; Nozawa et al., 2001)

Boundary Conditions for G.W. Experiment

IS92a: Intermediate G.W. Scenario

Boundary Conditions 　　 at the Sea Surface ＊ Wind Stress ＊ Sea Surface Temp. ＊ Fresh Water Flux ＊ Shortwave Radiation

　　＊ At the end of the 21st century (averaged from 2090 to 2100)

6/13

Increase in the Kuroshio Current from 40cm/s to 50cm/s at its maximum. associated with global warming.

Change in Flow Field @ 100m

40cm/sKuroshio Current

+10cm/s(about 30%)

(Present-day Simulation) (Global Warming) – (Present-day)

Annual Mean

0 10 20 30 40 50 [cm/s] 0 3 6 9 12 [cm/s]

Annual MeanOyashioCurrent

Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007 (in press, the Special Issue of NEMURO in Ecological Modeling)

7/13

1m/s

35N

High-resolution model (1/4ox1/6o)on the Earth Simulator

The increase in the Kuroshio Current by 30% associated with G.W. is also

reported by Sakamoto et al. (2005), using a high-resolution coupled climate model.

Perc

enta

ge o

fDi

atom

s (%

)Ph

y. C

onc.

(um

olN/

l)

Transition Site (155E, 38N)Subarctic Site (155E, 45N) Subtropical Site (155N, 28N)

＊ The biomass change at the transition site is the largest due to the large change in MLD.

0.7

0.5

DiatomsNon-Diatom Small Phy.

-30%

Change in Seasonal Variations (0-20m)

Black Line: Pre.Red Line: G.W.

＊ The onset of the spring bloom is predicted to occur half a month earlier.＊ The maximum biomass in the spring bloom is predicted to decrease by 30%.＊ The change in the dominant group appears notably at the end of the spring bloom.

NoChange

12/13

Small Pelagics And Climate Small Pelagics And Climate Change SPACCChange SPACC

Toward a comparative approach of EBC dynamics.

Discussions are underway for developing a concerted modelling approach involving several Institutes and scientists from EBC regions (led by French IRD)

Canary Benguela

Humboldt

Are the models complex enough?

(Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.A. Einstein )

NEMURO.FISH

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

C. finmarchicus

C. helgolandicus

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Long-term changes in the Long-term changes in the abundance abundance

of two key species in the North Seaof two key species in the North Sea

Per

cen

tage

of

C. h

elgo

lan

dicu

s

(Beaugrand)

Long-term changes in the Long-term changes in the abundance abundance

of two key species in the North Seaof two key species in the North Sea

Calanus helgolandicusCalanus finmarchicus

mon

ths

Years (1958-1999)

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112

0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91

Years (1958-1999)

diatoms calcifiers N2-fixers Phaeocystis

picophytos

nanophytos

zoopl. filter feeders

mesozoo-plankton

SiO2

CaCO3 DOMmicrozoo-plankton

Foram-inifera

Process Observations

bacteria

Validation Observation

s

Dynamic Green Ocean Model

Tro

phi

c Le

vel

Zooplankton

10 Production

DemersalFish

PlanktivorousFish

Rhomboid Approach

The rhomboids indicate the conceptual characteristics for models with differentspecies and differing areas of primary focus.

Rhomboid is broadest wheremodel has its greatest functional complexity i.e., at the level of the target Organism.

deYoung et al, 2004

But how to do it?

Calanus finmarchicus

prey

predators

BASIN

Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and INtegration of oceanographic and climate-related processes and

the dynamics of plankton and fish populations

in the North Atlantic Ocean.

BASIN

Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and INtegration of oceanographic and climate-related processes and

the dynamics of plankton and fish populations

in the North Atlantic Ocean.

A cooperative project that involves individuals from European and North

American countries

A cooperative project that involves individuals from European and North

American countries

NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN SHELF SEAS

Climate forcing of ocean circulation

(Heath et al.)

BASIN Aim

To understand and simulate the population structure and dynamics of broadly distributed, and trophically and biogeochemically important plankton and fish species in the North Atlantic ocean to resolve the impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems, and thereby contribute to ocean management.

Modelling: Basic goals of BASIN

• Hindcast modelling studies to understand the observed variability of the North Atlantic ecosystem over (at least) the last 50 years

• Construction of scenarios of possible ecosystem changes in response to future climate variability

We will focus on four major trophic components

• Primary production and biogeochemical cycles

• Zooplankton

• Planktivorous fish

• Demersal fish

Proposal to NSF’s PIRE: Partnership for International Research &

Education

US institutions:• UNC-Chapel Hill• LSU• Rutgers• NCAR• Alaska Fisheries

Science Center

Japan:• Hokkaido University• JAMSTEC• Tohuku Fisheries Lab

Norway:• Institute of Marine

Research• U of Bergen• Bjerknes Center

Objectives bring together key individuals from scientific cultures to

continue already established partnerships that are developing ideas and approaches on using novel modeling approaches to quantify the impact of climate on marine ecosystems, and

teach young scientists and graduate students how to engage and develop international partnerships, and foster long-term programs for scientific and educational collaboration between the US, Japan and Norway, all of which are confronting potential severe changes in the structure and function of high latitude marine ecosystems in response to Earth’s changing climate and other anthropogenic stressors.