energy requirements and planning in north america: 2018 the trilateral commission, north american...

15
Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President and CEO TransCanada Corporation

Upload: keon-ailstock

Post on 01-Apr-2015

213 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018

The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting

November 22, 2008

Hal KvislePresident and CEOTransCanada Corporation

Page 2: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

Forward-Looking Information

This presentation may contain certain information that is forward looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties. The words "anticipate", "expect", "may", "should", "estimate", "project", "outlook", "forecast" or other similar words are used to identify such forward-looking information. All forward-looking statements reflect TransCanada’s beliefs and assumptions based on information available at the time the statements were made. Actual results or events may differ from those predicted in these forward-looking statements. Factors which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current expectations include, among other things, the ability of TransCanada to successfully implement its strategic initiatives and whether such strategic initiatives will yield the expected benefits, the operating performance of the Company’s pipeline and energy assets, the availability and price of energy commodities, regulatory processes and decisions, changes in environmental and other laws and regulations, competitive factors in the pipeline and energy industry sectors, construction and completion of capital projects, labour, equipment and material costs, access to capital markets, interest and currency exchange rates, technological developments and the current economic conditions in North America. By its nature, such forward‑looking information is subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could cause TransCanada's actual results and experience to differ materially from the anticipated results or expectations expressed.  Additional information on these and other factors is available in the reports filed by TransCanada with Canadian securities regulators and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on this forward‑looking information, which is given as of the date it is expressed in this presentation or otherwise, and to not use future-oriented information or financial outlooks for anything other than their intended purpose. TransCanada undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward‑looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Page 3: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

Pipeline and Energy Assets

Pipelines

Proposed Pipelines

Gas Storage Facilities

Power plants:

Gas (52%)

Nuclear (23%)

Coal (15%)

Hydro (5%)

Wind (5%)

GTN System

Tuscarora

North Baja

Tamazunchale

Foothills/BC

Iroquois

Portland

ANR

AlbertaSystem

Canadian MainlineTQM

Great LakesNorthern

Border

Pipelines

• 59,000 km (36,500 mi) of wholly-owned natural gas pipeline, and interests in an additional 7,800 km (4,800 mi)

• 235 Bcf of regulated natural gas storage capacity

• Average daily volume of 15 Bcf

• Keystone oil pipeline 1.1 MMb/d

Energy

• 19 power plants, 10,900 MW

• Diversified portfolio, primarily low-cost, baseload generation

• 120 Bcf of non-regulated natural gas storage capacity

MacKay River

Redwater

Sheerness

Cancarb

Carseland

Sundance A&B

Bear Creek

Cartier Wind

Grandview

Bécancour

Portlands

Bruce Power

Ocean State

TC HydroHalton Hills

Ravenswood

Coolidge

Kibby Wind

Keystone

Page 4: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

North American Petroleum Overview 2007/2030 (MMb/d)

Production

Net PetroleumImports/Exports

Demand3.33.3 0.90.9 2.42.4

7.37.3

13.713.7 21.021.0

3.33.3 1.41.4 2.12.1

20072007

5.55.5 3.23.22.52.5

8.08.0

13.513.5 21.521.5

3.33.300

3.33.3

20302030

CANADA

USA

MEXICO

Page 5: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

Crude Oil: Canada Production Forecast

Reference: CAPP June 2008 Canadian Crude Oil Production & Supply Forecast (2008-2020)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000Actual Forecast

Pentanes

Conventional Light

Conventional Heavy

Eastern Canada

Mining

In-Situ

2007 CAPP Forecast

Page 6: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Canadian CrudeExports

MMb/d

Canada 2.3 U.S. 20.8Mexico 2.0

Crude Oil: Canada Exported 1.8 MMb/d Worth $41 Billion to the U.S. in 2007

2007 Crude Oil Demand (MMb/d)

Page 7: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

Keystone Oil Pipeline

Port Arthur

Houston

KeystoneGulf CoastExpansion

Pipelines

Proposed Pipelines

Gas Storage Facilities

Cushing

PatokaWood River

Hardisty

* Comprises Keystone and Keystone Gulf Coast Expansion. Keystone in construction

Keystone System*• 1,090,000 B/d capacity

• 830,000 B/d binding

contractual commitments

for an average term of 18

years

• Future expansion potential

to 1,500,000 B/d capacity

• US$12.2 billion,

TransCanada 79%

• In service 2009 – 2012

Keystone

Steele City

Page 8: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

Keystone Under Construction

Schedule:

2008 Construction • Conversion• 4 pipeline spreads• 27 pump stations• 3 tanks

2009 Construction • 7 pipeline spreads• 40 pump stations• 3 terminals

2010 Construction• 3 pipeline spreads• 50 pump stations

Page 9: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

North American Gas Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bcf/d

History Forecast

Residential &Commercial

Other

Industrial

Electric Generation

Page 10: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

North American Gas Supply

0102030405060708090

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. Other

Gulf of Mexico

WCSB

U.S. Rockies

Eastern Canada

Bcf/d

North

LNG

Mexico

Demand

History Forecast

Page 11: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

North American Natural Gas Resources

Muskwa, Besa & Horn River Shales

Montney Shale

Colorado Group Shales

Lewis & Mancos Shale Woodford Shale

Feyetteville Shale

Haynesville Shale

Barnett Shale

Atrim Shale

New Albany Shale

Ohio Shale

Utica, Trenton Black River & Marcellus Shale

• Major conventional natural gas basins in North America marked in green

• Emerging shale natural gas basins (marked in brown) in North America may add significant supply

WCSB

UINTA BASIN

PARADOX BASINSAN JUAN BASIN

WILLISTON BASIN

DENVER BASIN

ANADARKO BASIN

FT. WORTH BASIN

ILLINOIS BASIN

BLACK WARRIOR BASIN

MISSISSIPI SALT BASIN

GULF COAST BASIN

APPALACHIAN BASIN

ALASKA

MACKENZIE DELTA

Natural Gas Basins

Shale Gas Basins

Page 12: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

North American Natural Gas Supply

Pipelines

Proposed Pipelines

Gas Storage Facilities

Conventional Shale

Non Conventional Shale

LNG

• Flow patterns will shift

• Committed to playing a role in meeting the growing needs for energy infrastructure

• Progressing options for Midwest and Northeast U.S. markets to access incremental supply from the largest continental basins

• Leveraging our existing, integrated footprint across North America to deliver the most cost-effective and timely solutions

Page 13: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

Western Canada Gas Supply and Demand

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Unconventional

Conventional

Bcf/ d

Mackenzie Delta

Alaska

Demand

Page 14: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

Natural Gas: Canada Exported 10.5 Bcf/d Worth $28 Billion to the U.S. in 2007

Canada 8.5U.S. 62.1Mexico 5.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

CanadianExports to U.S.

Bcf/d

2007 Natural Gas Demand (Bcf/d)

Page 15: Energy Requirements and Planning in North America: 2018 The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting November 22, 2008 Hal Kvisle President

Potential Mexico Pipeline Projects

CD Juarez

Nogales

Mexico City

Mérida

Tula

Naco

Lázaro Cárdenas

Guadalajara

Altamira

Tamazunchale Expansion and Extension

Manzanillo

Guaymas

Chihuahua

Valladolid

Reynosa

Monterrey

Tijuana

Topolobampo

Mazatlán

Mexicali

CancunGuadalajara Pipeline

Tamazunchale Pipeline

Pemex Pipeline

Private Open Access Pipeline

Potential Projects

Legend

Chihuahua Pipeline

Toluca

Salina Cruz

Veracruz

Poza Rica to Santa AnaPipeline

Poza Rica