dr. wil_eastern nile water simulation model based on ribasim v9 (wil)

7/30/2019 Dr. Wil_Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model Based on RIBASIM V9 (Wil)

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Eastern Nile Water Simulation ModelDSS for EN River Basin powered by RIBASIM

Wil N.M. van der Krogt, Henk J.M. Ogink

For 5th ENPM Regional Workshop, Cairo, Egypt

8 December 2012


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Deltares Delft the Netherlands - Europe

Deltares


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Project aim

1. To build a flexible "Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model (ENWSM)

based on RIBASIM7"2. To carry out a simulation analysis of the EN basin for a number of

identified scenarios, measures and strategies on critical EN issues likewater infrastructure development and climate change.

3. To build modeling capacity at ENTRO by classical and on-the-jobtraining.

Target to finish December 2012

RIBASIM training ENTRO, Addis Ababa, Jun and Sep 2012


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RIBASIM Version 7.01

RIBASIM has been developed and fine-tuned since 1985 at

Deltares | Delft Hydraulics in the course of many projects.

RIBASIM has been applied in more than 30 countries world-wide

and is used by a wide range of national and regional agencies.

Countries where the model has been applied include Argentina,

Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, Central Asian republics(Aral Sea catchment), Chile, China, Czech, Egypt, Equatorial

Lakes, Ethiopia, Greece, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Kenya,

Lesotho, Malaysia, Mali, Mongolia, Morocco, Nepal, Peru,

Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Senegal, Sudan, Taiwan, Tobago,

Trinidad, Turkey, Ukraine, Vietnam, The Netherlands.

RIBASIM is a general applicable software and is used in large

complex river basin management and planning studies


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Simulation in time of :

Infrastructure

and its operation

water

allocation

shortages / allocation

energy production

reservoir levels

delivery reliability

etc.

Overall basin management

Introduction R I B A S I M

Water

demand

Available

water


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Why balance: the Water Balancing Act

Demand Population growth

Increased welfare

Inefficient use

Supply Quantity (Natural Scarcity,

Groundwater Depletion)

Quality Degradation

Cost of Options

Nile


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On short / long term

Squeezing

the Nile


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Raw data

Collect and validate the available unstructured data from:

ENTRO staff, ENTRO library (untouched reports), public domain and

internet


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ENWSM covers the catchments

of the main EN basins,

including the Blue Nile, Baro-

Akobo-Sobat, Tekeze-Setit-

Atbara, portions of the White

Nile and the Main Nile

upstream of HAD incl. LakeNasser.

Nile River basin

ENWSM characteristics

Simulation time step: months

Covers all users in the EN basin, allpresent and potential infrastructure


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Zoom in on catchment schematization near Lake Tana and Abay Blue Nile

Kessie st.

Tekezedam

Metema st.

Rahad

dam (P)

Renaissance

Dam (P)

DSGuder st.Beko Abo

Dam (P)Mabil Dam

(P)

Mendaia Upand Down

Dam (P) Karadobi

Dam (P)

Deim st.Chara

Chara st.


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Catchment area

EN catchment area (km2) and average annual catchment runoff

(Mcm) per country:

Ethiopia 496,961 (22 %) 80,106 (80%)

South Sudan 957,800 (42 %) 16,941 (17 %)

Sudan 845,312 (36 %) 3,376 ( 3 %)

Total 2,300,073 km2 100,422 Mcm

1. Some catchments may cover 2 countries and are not split-up.

2. Inflow at Mongalla 35,805 Mcm is excluded.


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Complete EN network schematization for ENWSM (RIBASIM7) with map

Network schematization


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Network schematization: rivers

Complete EN network schematization for ENWSM (RIBASIM7) without map:

Rivers and canals only

Bahr El Jebel

White Nile

Main Nile Atbara

Tekeze

Rahad

Setit

DinderGash

Abay

Blue Nile

Baro

Gilo

AkoboAgweri

Bahr El Ghazal

PiborSobat


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ENWSM network schematization of present situation

Network schematization: lakes and swamps

Ghazal

Sudd

LakeTana

Lake Nasser

Machar


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Network schematization: recording stations

ENWSM network schematization of present situation (42)

Lake Nasser

K3

Diem

Border

Khartoum Embamadre

Bahir Dar

GambelaHillet Doleib

Malakal Kessie

Bure

Shogole

Abu Hamed


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EN network schematization

Infrastructure:

All rivers in: Baro-Akobo-Sobat-White Nile basin (Bahr El Jebel and Ghazal)Abay-Blue Nile basin

Tekeze-Setit-Atbara basin

Main Nile basin

2 Lake: Tana and Nasser

3 Swamps: Sudd, Ghazal and Machar

111 Dams: 11 existing and 100 under-construction or (known) potential 6 Run-of-river hydro-power stations: 2 existing and 4 potential

42 Recording stations

3 Potential by-pass canals for Ghazal, Sudd (Jonglei Canal) and Macharswamps

Users and losses: 114 Irrigation areas: 18 existing and 96 potential

5 DMI water use

Evaporation and other losses


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Hydrology: monthly time series

Big effort to get the series complete and consistent:

Actual and effective rainfall based on ERA40 daily rainfall 1961-

2000 from ECMWF, gridded rainfall data.

Evaporation and evapotranspiration based on FAO-data base

(CLIMWAT). Lake Tana water balance based on evaporation, outflow and

storage change data and ENTRO inflow records.

River flow (runoff) based on historical (natural) flows at Bahir

Dar, Kessie, Guder DS, Deim, Roseires, Dinder at mouth, Rahad

at mouth, Khartoum & Soba, Gambela, Hillet Doleib, Malakal, K3,data from Norplan and Nile Control staff.

Monthly time series from 1900 till 2002 (103 years)


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Model verification at var. locations, 1900-2002

Model verification, Atbara at K3, Period 1900-2002, annual flows

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Annualflow

(Mm

3)

Natural

Simulated

Model verification, Main Nile at Aswan, Period 1900-2002

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Annualflows(Mm

3)

Natural

Simulated


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Model verification, var. locations, monthly flow

statistics

Model verification, Main Nile at Aswan, Period 1900-1932, monthly flow statistics

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Monthlymeanandstandarddeviation(Mm

3)

Mean Natural

Mean Simulation x = 0.3

Mean Simulation x = 0.4

Stdv Natural

Stdv Simulation x = 0.4

Model verification, Atbara at K3, Period 1900-2002

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Monthlymeanandstandarddeviation(M

m3)

Mean observed

Stdv observed

Mean simulated

Stdv simulated


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Irrigation water demand and supply

Advanced irr igat ion node: agriculture water demand, water

allocation, crop yield and crop production modeling (DelftAGRI)based on:

various crops, crop characteristics, crop and yield response factors

crop (cultivation) plan

reference crop evapotranspiration

dependable and actual rainfall irrigation and agriculture practise

soil types

pre-saturation requirement

seepage and percolation losses

water allocation to crops within the irrigation area by priority

root zone soil moisture water balance survival fraction on field level, the crop yield on field and farm gate

level and crop production costs.


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Crops

1. Rice

2. Cotton

3. Sorghum Teff

4. Onion5. Wheat

6. Groundnut

7. Sugar Cane

8. Field peas

9. Lentils10.Barley

11.Sunflower Noug Sesame

12.Soy Beans

13.Potatoes

14.Tobacco

15.Maize

16.Castor Beans17.Red Pepper

18.Ginger

19.Coffee

20.Fruits

21.Grapes22.Sudan Grass

22 crops defined (as used in the ENID Study):


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Crop plan in base case 2012

Sudan

Ethiopia

Standard crop plans per

country based on FAO data

Toshka


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Surface water reservoir geometry incl. one or more backwater gates

Dams and reservoirs


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Operation of surface water reservoir

Determined by :

actual water volume in the reservoir

hydrological in- and output :

actual rainfall, open water evaporation, seepage, inflow

downstream release targets(main, backwater and turbine gates) for:

non-hydro power releases like irrigation, domestic water supply,

flushing, etc via the main or backwater gates

firm hydro energy release targets

gate capacities

reservoiroperation rules:

flood control,

maximum energy production,

firm and hedging storage

Dams and reservoirs


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Model data base 2012

ENWSM

(based on RIBASIM7)

Historical hydrological

data

1900 - 2002Result files

Result files

Results

Base case 2012 : present situation

Setup of ENWSM

Stores network schematization, node

and link characteristics, priorities for

water allocation, etc

All annual and multiple

year time series


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Agriculture sector

dataAgriculture sector

data

Land-use and

population data

2010 - 2050

Model data base 2012

ENWSM

(based on RIBASIM7)

Historical hydrological

data

1900 - 2002

Land-use and

population data

2010 - 2050 Crop plan

data

Result files

Result files

Results

Socio-economic

scenarios

Land-use and

population data

2012 - 2050

Measure and strategy

data filesMeasure and strategy

data filesMeasure and strategy

data

Agriculture sector

scenarios

Climate change

data filesClimate change

data filesChange of

hydrological data

Climate change

scenarios

Interventions,

management

actions


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Scenarios and management actions

Distinction among:

1. Hydrological scenarios

2. Socio-economic scenarios

3. Agriculture sector scenarios

4. Climate change scenarios

5. Management actions which consists of combination of measures:

Irrigation measures

Hydro-power measures

Other measures

To prepare explicitly


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Scenarios

ID Scenario name

T002 ENWSM time series (103 years : 1900-2002) Atbara Fraction

T003 ENWSM time series (103 years : 1900-2002) Atbara Regression (the best)

Hydrological scenario: historical time series

Climate change scenario: variation on the hydrological scenario

ID Scenario name

C000 No hydrological data change

C001 Climate change (+3%)

C002 Climate change (-3%)

C003 Climate change (+5%)

C004 Climate change (-5%)


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Scenarios

Land-use and population scenarios: change in DMI demand

Agriculture sector scenario: alternative crop plan for irrigation areas

ID Scenario name Remarks

A000 No agriculture sector scenario (crop plan)

defined

Crop plan of the 2012 model database is

used.

A001 High crop intensity (Ethiopia) Crop plan with 180% crop intensity for

Ethiopia according to ENID study for Lake

Tana

ID Scenario name Remarks

D000 No land-use and population scenario defined Population number of the 2012 model

database is used

D001 2030 best estimate of population/cattle growth +25%

D002 2030 high estimate of population/cattle growth +40%


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I-measures

Irrigation development measures (12 feasible ENIDS projects):

1. Gumera, 6 sub-projects of the Tana Beles irr. Project (Et)

2. Ribb, 4 sub-projects of the Tana Beles irr. Project (Et)

3. Megech pumping and gravity of the Tana Beles irr. Project (Et)

4. Neshe irr. Project (Et)

5. Arjo Didessa River project of the Didessa irr. Project (Et)

6. Negeso River project of the Didessa irr. Project (Et)

7. Angar of the Angar-Nekemte irr. Project (Et)

8. El Rahad Phase II irr. Project (Su)

9. Upper Beles of the Tana Beles irr. Project (Et)

10. Great Kenana irr. Project (Su)

11. Humera irr. Project12.Rumela and Upper Atbara irr. development Projects (Su)

13. Lower Beles irrigation area

14. Upper Dinder irrigation area


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H-measures

Hydro-power and other development measures:

1. Karadobi dam (Et)

2. Beko Abo Low dam (Et)

3. Beko Abo High dam (Et)

4. Mandaya dam (Et)

5. Mandaya Upper dam (Et)

6. Renaissance dam with FSL 620 m (under construction, Et)

7. Renaissance dam with FSL 640 m (under construction, Et)

8. Upper Beles Dam (Et)

9. Heightening Roseires Dam on 490 m (present 481 m) (Su)

10. Rumela and Burdana dams (under construction, Su)

11. Jonglei Canal (Ss)


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Management actions

ID Name

M000 No management actions. Base line, current condition.

M001 Renaissance640

Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr.

High Roseires + Kenana irr.

M002 Abbay dams cascade A of Karadobi + Beko Abo Low + Mandaya + Renaissance620.



M003 Abbay dams cascade B of Karadobi - Beko Abo Low - Madaya Upper - Renaissance

dam640



M004 Abbay dams cascade C of Beko Abo High (1062) + Mandaya + Renaissance620

Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr.High Roseires + Kenana irr.

M005 Abbay dams cascade D of Beko Abo High (1062) + Mandaya Upper + Renaissance640



M501 Set all irrigation, public water supply and infrastructure nodes on inactive except Lake Tana.


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ENWSM operation

Simulation case management by flow chart of actions

Select

scenarios and

measures

Design network

schematization and

fill model data

Define

simulation

period

Simulate

Analyze results

(map, chart,

report)

Drop-down menu list


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Simulation cases

Verification case Hydrological scenario T003 on

All other scenarios off

Management action G501 on : all infrastructure and all usersinactive

Aim to calibrate and verify the flows in the network at the recordingstations

Base case (S000): present 2012 situation

Hydrological scenario T003 on

All other scenarios off No management action

Aim to reproduce the present situation


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Illustrative simulation cases

ID ID Hyd+Clim+SocEc+

Agr+ManAct

S001 Renaissance T003+C000+D000+A000+M001

S002 Abay Cascade A:

Karadobi + Beko Abo Low + Mandaya + Renaissance 620

T003+C000+D000+A000+M002

S003 Abay Cascade B:

Karadobi + Beko Abo Low + Mandaya Upper + Renaissance 640

T003+C000+D000+A000+M003

S004 Abay Cascade C:

Beko Abo High + Mandaya + Renaissance 620

T003+C000+D000+A000+M004

S005 Abay Cascade D:Beko Abo High + Mandaya Upper + Renaissance 640

T003+C000+D000+A000+M005

S006 Renaissance High demand T003+C502+D002+A001+M001

Selection of scenarios and management actions


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ENWSM results characteristics

Tool to analyse the consequences of infrastructure developments(measures, interventions) and climate change in terms like

the inflow into Lake Nasser

the flow regime at any location eg. Deim,

the reliability of supply to all water users in the Nile countries,

the water use in the various Nile countries for irrigation,hydropower, drinking water, livestock, domestic, municipal andindustrial use,

the evaporation from swamps, reservoirs and rivers,

the hydro-power production (firm and secondary),

the size of the swamps (wetlands, marshes).

the spilling to Toshka valleys

.


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Tables: Summary output tables with water supply reliability

Annual overall basin water balances tables

Irrigation- and DMI consumption, evaporation losses per country

Graphs: all computed parameters for each node, link and overall basin

Overall basin water balance over time Demand, supply and shortage for irrigation, DMI, losses

Actual and dependable flows at any location in the basin

Reservoir, lake and swamp water balances over time

Water balance for each node over time

Map presentation: all parameters as under the graphs option

Map animation: flow thru the network over time

Example and preliminary model results


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Example and preliminary model results

Verification case: Nile natural flow, no structures and no users, check recorded and

simulated river flows at the 42 recording stations (1900-2002)

Malakal recording station

Simulated flow (m3/s) Monitored flow (m3/s)

12/7/199512/9/198712/11/197912/13/197112/15/196312/17/195512/19/194712/21/193912/23/193112/25/192312/27/191512/29/1907

2,400

2,300

2,200

2,100

2,000

1,900

1,800

1,700

1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

Aswan recording station (inflow Lake Nasser)

Simulated flow (m3/s) Monitored flow (m3/s)

12/7/199512/9/198712/11/197912/13/197112/15/196312/17/195512/19/194712/21/193912/23/193112/25/192312/27/191512/29/1907

12,500

12,000

11,500

11,000

10,500

10,000

9,500

9,000

8,500

8,000

7,500

7,000

6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Avg annual natural

flow 86.1 Bcm

Graph for location Total basin (Mcm)

44 000


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Total basin

water balanceover time

In :V if Variab le inflow Tota l basin (Mcm) In :Rsv Ra infall To ta l basin (Mcm)In :Rsv Storage decrease Total basin (Mcm) In :Lnk Rainfall Total basin (Mcm)

In :Lnk Storage decrease Total basin (Mcm) In :Gwr Return flows to gw of prev.ts Total basin (Mcm)

12/28/190912/28/190812/29/190712/29/190612/29/190512/29/190412/30/190312/30/190212/30/190112/30/1900

44,000

42,000

40,000

38,000

36,000

34,000

32,000

30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,000

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Graph for location Total basin (Mcm)

Out:End Outflow Total basin (Mcm) Out:Rsv Evaporation Total basin (Mcm)Out:Rsv Storage increase Total basin (Mcm) Out:Lnk Evaporation Total basin (Mcm)

Out:Lnk Storage increase Total basin (Mcm) Out:Pws Consumption from sw and gw Total basin (Mcm)Out:Qls Allocati on Total basi n (Mcm) Out:Ai r Consumpti on from sw and gw Total basi n (Mcm)Out:Lnk Soil moisture recharge Total basin (Mcm)

6/18/191012/18/19096/19/190912/19/19086/20/190812/21/19076/22/190712/22/19066/23/190612/23/19056/24/190512/24/19046/25/190412/26/19036/27/190312/27/19026/28/190212/28/19016/29/190112/29/19006/30/1900

44,000

42,000

40,000

38,000

36,000

34,000

32,000

30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,00020,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

Sources

Use

Base case


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Example and preliminary base case model results

Graph for location Rsv_Eg_HighAswanDam_IrHpPw

SW reservoir node results

Level: actual at end of time step Rsv_Eg_HighAswanDam_IrHpPw Level: full reservoir Rsv_Eg_HighAswanDam_IrHpPwLevel: dead Rsv_Eg_HighAswanDam_IrHpPw

D 1899-12-01 00:00:00 1909-07-01 00:00:00 1919-06-01 00:00:00 1929-06-01 00:00:00 1939-05-01 00:00:00 1949-05-01 00:00:00 1959-04-01 00:00:00 1969-04-01 00:00:00 1979-03-01 00:00:00 1989-03-01 00:00:00 1999-02-01 00:00:00

182

180

178

176

174

172

170

168

166

164

162

160

158

156

154

152

150

148

Reservoir level of Lake Nasser over time

Results: change

Average monthly flow at El Diem Mcm)


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Results: change

in flow regime

Average monthly inflow of Lake Nasser (Mcm)

0.0

5000.0

10000.0

15000.0

20000.0

25000.0

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

14000.0

16000.0

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Inflow to Lake

Nasser

Flow at Deim


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Total energy production (GWh)

0.0

10000.0

20000.0

30000.0

40000.0

50000.0

60000.0

70000.0

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Simulation results: hydro-power production

N fAnnual average net evaporation (Mcm)


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Net evap.from

reservoirs

g p ( )

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

14000.0

16000.0

18000.0

20000.0

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Lake Nasser average annual net evaporation (Mcm)

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

14000.0

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Total basin net

evaporation

from reservoirs

Lake Nasser

net

evaporation


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Simulation results: Irr and DMI water use

Total water use (Mcm)

0.0

10000.0

20000.0

30000.0

40000.0

50000.0

60000.0

S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Ethiopia Sudan Egypt South Sudan

Total water use

per country

Sudan water use

Water use of Sudan (Mcm)

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

14000.0

16000.0

18000.0

S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Evap. from reservoirs Irr. And DMI use Total

Si l i l i f h


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Simulation results: size of the swamps

Swamp area (ha)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Bahr El Ghazal Machar Sudd

E l d li i b d l lt


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Graph for location Lst_Ss_SwampSudd

Link storage node results

Surface area Lst_Ss_SwampSudd

D 1899-12-01 00:00:00 1909-10-01 00:00:00 1920-01-01 00:00:00 1930-04-01 00:00:00 1940-06-01 00:00:00 1950-09-01 00:00:00 1960-12-01 00:00:00 1971-03-01 00:00:00 1981-06-01 00:00:00 1991-09-01 00:00:00 2001-12-01 00:00:00

4,800,000

4,600,000

4,400,000

4,200,000

4,000,000

3,800,000

3,600,000

3,400,000

3,200,000

3,000,000

2,800,000

2,600,000

2,400,000

2,200,000

2,000,000

1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

Surface area of Sudd swamp over time (ha)


E l d li i b d l lt


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Graph for location Swf_110_MainNileRiver

Emperical method (Method 2)Annual results

Link flow statistics

Minimum Swf_110_MainNileRiver Average Swf_110_MainNileRiver Maximum Swf_110_MainNileRiver 0.80 depend. Swf_110_MainNileRiver0.20 depend. Swf_110_MainNileRiver

11/25/190010/26/19009/26/19008/27/19007/28/19006/28/19005/29/19004/29/19003/30/19002/28/19001/29/1900

10,000

9,500

9,000

8,500

8,000

7,500

7,000

6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500


Max, average, min, 20% and 80% dependable monthly inflow of Lake Nasser

H t d (1)


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How to proceed (1)

Water supply side: All hydrological time series are consistent but

improvement can be aimed for the series along Blue

Nile, Lake Tana (Gigel Abay), Gilo-Birbir

Extension of the time series from 2002 to 2012

Water use side:

Use of more differentiated crop plans

Improvement of the DMI demand based on better data

Extension of the model with Egypt

H t d (2)


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How to proceed (2)

Infrastructure: Filling up the missing data for the potential reservoirs

Fine-tuning the operation rules of the dams

Improvement of the water allocation especially in

Sudan based on better field data

Measures and management actions:

Defining more measures and management actions toanalyze

Analuze filling strategies for the Renaissance andRumela-Burdana dams under construction

Th k


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Thanks

Grand Renaissance Dam (Et)

dr. wil_eastern nile water simulation model based on ribasim v9 (wil)

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