dr. steve meyer - livestock & poultry outlook

Download Dr. Steve Meyer - Livestock & Poultry Outlook

Post on 22-Jan-2018

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  1. 1. Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D. Vice-President, Pork Analysis EMI Analytics World Pork Expo -- 2016 Livestock & Poultry Outlook
  2. 2. Macro variables are a mixed bag . . . Latest labor market numbers are SOFT (?) - May employment grew by only 38,000 October thru March averaged 239,000! - Labor force is record large but participation rate is still under 63% -- near record low - Unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% Real personal disposable income is still growing 2.5% YTD after 2.63% in 15 Median real household income, though, is down 7.2% from 98 peak, 6.5% vs. 07
  3. 3. Consumer attitudes have not improved . . .
  4. 4. 3-species RPCE was down, yr/yr, again in April . . . . . Reversion to the mean but still on uptrend
  5. 5. Beef, chicken still down in April, pork gained. . .
  6. 6. Pork uptrend is still intact as well for now . . .
  7. 7. Nice yr/yr gain for pork share of RPCE in April . . . . . . YTD 16 average is 25.7% vs. 28.8% in 15
  8. 8. 15 was the year of a BIG jump in avail/cons . . . . . . . growth in 16 will be smaller 17 ????
  9. 9. Prices INCREASED in March not by much . . . . . . but reflects continuing strong demand!
  10. 10. Pork still has a big advantage on beef at retail . . .
  11. 11. EMI Analytics Broiler Outlook Sue Trudell Vice President, EMI Analytics strudell@emianalytics.com
  12. 12. Broiler Hatchery Supply Flock USDA, first of month, quarterly 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 millionhens May 2016 forward forecast Supply flock: +1.9% in 15 but +0.5 & 0.6% next 2 yrs
  13. 13. US Broiler Average Liveweight USDA, annual 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 pounds Apr 2016 forward forecast Weight growth slowing to

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