livestock and poultry world markets and trade_10_2009

8/7/2019 Livestock and poultry World Markets and Trade_10_2009

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United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture

ForeignAgriculturalService

October 2009

2010 Forecast: Economic Recovery Bolsters World Meat Trade

World Meat Trade

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

MillionMetricTons(CWE

)

Beef & Veal Pork Poultry (Broiler & Turkey Meat)

Economic recovery in 2010 will help stimulate improved demand for meat and poultry.

Beef and pork exports are forecast up 1 and 3 percent, respectively. Whereas improved demand for

beef is expected worldwide, the boost in pork will generally be concentrated in North America.

Brazil, the only key beef producer with excess supplies, is expected as the principal beneficiary of

increased demand. However, both Brazil and the United States will be able to take advantage of the

rise in pork.

Broiler and turkey meat exports are forecast 2 and 4 percent higher, respectively. Brazil will be the

primary supplier as it focuses on growth to non-traditional markets. The United States faces a

decline in broiler shipments on weak demand in major markets but modest growth is expected for

turkey.

Note: Data in this document reflects the PSD (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline) and WASDE release of October 9, 2009

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline


2/31

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

October 2009

Contents

Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry

2010 Forecast Overviews

Beef

Pork

PoultryTurkey

Summary Tables

Beef Summary Table

Pork Summary Table

Broiler Meat Summary Table

Turkey Meat Summary Table

Cattle Summary Table

Swine Summary Table

Per Capita Consumption Summary Selected CountriesBeef

Pork

Broiler

Notes to Readers

eign Agricultural Service/USDAce of Global Analysis Octo


3/31

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Percent

Change

2009 to

2010

Beef and Veal /1 56,283 57,536 58,359 58,050 56,782 56,405 -0.7%

Pork /1 94,420 96,075 94,585 98,528 100,236 101,883 1.6%Broiler and Turkey /2 68,059 69,257 73,403 76,741 76,777 78,894 2.8%

Total 218,762 222,868 226,347 233,319 233,795 237,182 1.4%

Beef and Veal /1 55,832 56,804 57,947 57,450 56,116 55,972 -0.3%

Pork /1 94,048 95,842 94,434 98,357 100,022 101,867 1.8%

Broiler & Turkey /2 67,355 69,065 73,095 75,805 76,113 78,202 2.7%

Total 217,235 221,711 225,476 231,612 232,251 236,041 1.6%

Beef and Veal /1 6,793 6,836 7,227 6,928 6,439 6,657 3.4%

Pork /1 4,740 4,921 5,087 5,915 5,323 5,412 1.7%

Broiler and Turkey /2 6,723 6,870 7,591 8,290 7,973 8,143 2.1%

Total 18,256 18,627 19,905 21,133 19,735 20,212 2.4%

Beef and Veal /1 7,315 7,503 7,571 7,490 7,110 7,206 1.4%

Pork /1 5,006 5,224 5,162 6,147 5,465 5,608 2.6%

Broiler and Turkey /2 7,435 7,122 7,965 9,074 8,715 8,890 2.0%

Total 19,756 19,849 20,698 22,711 21,290 21,704 1.9%

Beef and Veal /1 316 519 650 856 785 837 6.6%

Pork /1 1,209 1,359 1,425 2,117 1,887 2,018 6.9%

Broiler and Turkey /2 2,618 2,609 2,926 3,464 3,232 3,105 -3.9%

Total 4,143 4,487 5,001 6,437 5,904 5,960 0.9%

Change in

Market

Share

Points

Beef and Veal /1 4% 7% 9% 11% 11% 12% 1%

Pork /1 24% 26% 28% 34% 35% 36% 1%

Broiler and Turkey /2 35% 37% 37% 38% 37% 35% -2%

Combined 21% 23% 24% 28% 28% 27% 0%

Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

Summary:

Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork , and Poul try

Production

Consumption

Imports

Exports

U.S. Expor ts

U.S. Market Share (% ) of Exports Among Major Traders

Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDAs official PSD database are reported. This means totals

do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDAs database, which

represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of

countries reported changes periodically.

1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

(p ) preliminary; (f ) forecast



4/31

Beef: 2010 Forecast Overview

World beef and veal production down slightly to 56.4 million tons

Beef production in 2010 is forecast to continue its recent decline, albeit at a slower rate of less than onepercent. Production increases in Brazil (4 percent) and India (5 percent) will not offset less production

in Argentina (13 percent), China (4 percent) and the United States (2 percent).

World Beef Production Continues to Decline

5556

56

57

57

58

58

59

59

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

MillionMetricTons

Argentina: Production is forecast to tumble 13 percent to 2.8 million tons on tighter cattleinventories. Argentina is expected to begin 2010 with a herd of 50.2 million head, 10 percent lower

than just two years ago. Drought, persisting in most of the country since mid-2007, has been the

primary driver of herd reduction generating lower calf crops on diminished pregnancy rates anddepressed returns have forced producers to market more cattle than usual. Thus liquidation in 2008

and 2009 will come to fruition in 2010 as fewer weaned calves, a smaller herd and a reduction of cows

for slaughter will limit supplies. Export restrictions, domestic policies capping beef prices, and

reduced profit margins will also stifle investment and production.

China: Continuing contraction of the cattle herd is forecast to negatively impact beef production

which will fall to just over 5.5 million tons comparable to the levels of 2003/2004. The herd,estimated at 104.9 million head at the beginning of 2010, will have contracted for 2 years. Backyard

producers, which account for the majority of holdings, have been discouraged by a marketing system

disadvantageous to small producers. Despite high cattle prices, production costs have risen at a fasterrate, squeezing profit margins. Uncertainty in the sector, which stifles production, has also been

fostered by continued outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD).

United States: Production is forecast to decline nearly 2 percent to 11.6 million tons on tighter

supplies as the cattle herd has been contracting since 2007.

Brazil: Production is forecast to rise 4 percent to 9.3 million tons. Unlike other major producers, theherd continues to expand and is forecast to reach 185.2 million head by 2010. Increased availability of

slaughter cattle will not only enable packers to meet strong demand for exports, which accounts for the

bulk of the increase, but also satisfy solid domestic demand.

India: With the worlds largest bovine herd, beef and buffalo meat production is forecast to rise 5

percent, primarily driven by strong domestic demand. Buffalo meat is cost competitive compared toother meat products and is widely accepted among Indian consumers. Firm demand for exports will

also bolster production.



5/31

Beef and Veal Imports by Region (1,000 tons - CWE)

Region 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)AbsoluteChange

2009-2010

% Change2009-2010

Caribbean 18 18 18 0 0%

Central America 45 44 44 0 0%East Asia 1,181 1,237 1,263 26 2%European Union 465 470 490 20 4%Former Soviet Union - 12 1,212 759 838 79 10%Middle East 604 583 598 15 3%North Africa 305 260 300 40 15%North America 1,789 1,824 1,929 105 6%Oceania 20 18 18 0 0%Other Europe 67 54 54 0 0%South America 490 434 297 -137 -32%South Asia 6 6 6 0 0%Southeast Asia 532 529 591 62 12%Sub-Saharan Africa 194 203 211 8 4%

Note: Regions include a limited set of major trading countries.

Exports: Recovery in 2010 elusive

World trade is forecast to rise a mere 1 percent as global demand fails to fully rebound and majorsuppliers struggle to generate adequate supplies. Australian and New Zealand exports are forecast to

fall 3 and 2 percent respectively as they will be limited by production declines. Brazil is forecast to rise

a stunning 20 percent a trend that will not apply to its South American counterparts.

Exports Rebound:

Strongly for Brazil, Moderately for India

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)

Year

MillionMetricTons

Brazil India

Brazil: Although the cattle sector is facing challenges due to industry restructuring and two years ofreduced exports, the outlook for 2010 is extremely positive with exports rising to nearly 1.9 million

tons. While still below the historical high of 2007, the increase will reinforce Brazils position as the

worlds largest beef exporter and restore global market share. It is expected that global economic

recovery could generate opportunities in the Middle East, recovery of shipments to the EU willcontinue, limited competing South American supplies will spur shipments to Russia, and theColumbia-Venezuela dispute will open avenues into Venezuela.



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7/31

Imports: Lackluster as demand is slow to rebound from recession

Global economic recovery will somewhat renew demand in 2010 and there will be few countries withnoteworthy forecasts.

Russia: In the absence of a multilateral agreement on 2010 TRQs, the forecast is based on 2009 TRQlevels and allocations. As production declines persist and the economy rebounds, imports are expected

to continue to fulfill demand. Imports are forecast to rise 11 percent to 780,000 remaining well below

the 2008 peak.

United States: The worlds largest beef importer is forecast to increase by 4 percent to 1.3 milliontons bolstered by reduced U.S. production, a strong dollar, and robust demand for lean trimmings.

EU: Imports are forecast upward by 4 percent to 490,000 tons. Although lower production isexpected to boost imports, it will be moderately constrained by stagnant demand as other proteins,

particularly poultry, continue to make consumption gains.

Venezuela: Imports will plunge 60 percent to 100,000 tons despite growing demand as imports willbe limited by its disruption with Columbia. With other South American producers failing to raise

substantial supplies, Brazil is likely to be the key supplier.



8/31

Pork: 2010 Forecast Overview

Global Pork production forecast up 2 percent to 101.9 million tons

China is the driving force behind global production growth in 2010. Excluding China, production isfractionally lower, as contraction in the United States, Canada, and the EU slightly offsets gains in

Brazil, Russia, and the Ukraine.

C h inese P ork P rodu c t ion U p W hile R es t o f W or ld F l a t

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Y e a r

M

illionM

etr

icTons

C hin a R es t o f W o rld

China: Production is again forecast higher, up 4 percent to 50.3 million tons. Expansion is fueled bygovernment sow subsidies and improved animal disease control notably for Porcine Reproductive and

Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS).

United States: Higher feed prices and relatively weak hog prices over the past two years results in aforecast of slightly lower production (2 percent) as producers reduce herds.

Canada: Production is forecast to fall to the lowest level 9 years, plunging 7 percent to 1.7 milliontons. A shrinking swine herd, as the industry faces a third consecutive year of low returns, will

translate to lower pork production.

Brazil: Production is forecast up 4 percent, bolstered by strong domestic demand, with pork prices

competitive with beef, and growth in the export market.

Russia: Moderate growth is expected as government subsidies continue to stimulate investments in

the pork industry. Producers are supported by more efficient operations, better swine genetics, and

expected lower feed prices. Production is forecast 4 percent higher at nearly 2.3 million tons.



9/31

U.S . Pork Ex por ts Lea d ing G rowth

0

0 .5

1

1 .5

2

2 .5

2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 (p ) 2 0 1 0 ( f)

Y e ar

M

illionM

etricTons

U nited S ta tes E U -27 Canada B raz il

Exports: Up slightly, resuming longer term growth trend

Exports, primarily from the United States and Brazil, are forecast up 3 percent to 5.6 million tons asexporters are optimistic about growth in the world economy in 2010 and expect demand from major

markets to strengthen.

United States: Moderate gains are expected as U.S. shipments to major markets are expected to

strengthen with improved economic conditions, a weaker dollar, and competitive prices. Reliance onexport markets rises slightly as 20 percent of U.S. production is exported.

Brazil: Growth is expected to new markets, while demand remains from traditional markets.

EU-27 and Canada: Exports are forecast down 4 and 3 percent, respectively, as lower production

reduces exportable supplies.



10/31

Pork Imports by Region (1,000 tons - CWE)


2009-2010

% Change2009-2010

Caribbean 52 65 73 8 12%

Central America 39 44 45 1 2%East Asia 2,532 2,159 2,166 7 0%European Union 56 50 50 0 0%Former Soviet Union - 12 1,291 990 950 -40 -4%North America 1,106 1,143 1,210 67 6%Oceania 186 212 218 6 3%Other Europe 146 154 157 3 2%South America 75 71 74 3 4%Southeast Asia 178 196 195 -1 -1%Sub-Saharan Africa 113 160 165 5 3%


Imports: Slight recovery due to North American growth

North American imports are forecast to increase more rapidly than most other major importing regions

as global imports rise 2 percent to 5.4 million tons.

Canada: Imports are forecast to jump 18 percent due to a stronger Canadian dollar and firm demand

for high quality fresh cuts at a time when domestic pork production continues to decline.

Mexico: Imports forecast up 3 percent as demand remains firm.

United States: Imports forecast up 5 percent on tight supplies expected due to lower domestic

production and greater exports.

South Korea: A stronger economy and Korean won are forecast to bolster imports up, 7 percent.

Ukraine: A currency devaluation and continued economic weakness are expected adversely affect

imports, forecast 17 percent lower.

China: Imports, which account for a negligible amount of consumption, are expected to fall 20percent to 120,000 tons, as abundant local supplies dampen import demand.



11/31

Poultry: 2010 Forecast Overview

Broiler Meat

Production forecast to rebound in 2010

Following recession-induced stagnant production, 2010 is forecast up 3 percent at 73.7 million tons.

World Broiler Meat Production Growth Recovers

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

M

illionM

etricTons

Growth is forecast to be largely driven by new historic production levels in Brazil and China (4 and 3

percent higher, respectively). Brazils rise is spurred by strong export and domestic demand. Chinasincrease is in response to strong domestic demand due to economic expansion. Contributing to global

growth will be the worlds leading producer, the United States, which is forecast 2 percent higher at

16.2 million tons. Virtually all other major producers, particularly Argentina, India and Russia are

forecast to expand production.

Major Producers:

Annual Production % Changes

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)

Year

Brazil China United States

Exports forecast slightly higher amid growing supplies

Exports are forecast 2 percent higher at 8.3 million tons. Plentiful supplies partnered with increasing

consumption as the macroeconomic outlook improves will facilitate the positive environment forinternational trade.



12/31

Brazils expanding exports are forecast 6 percent higher to a record of over 3.3 million tons. Importdemand is expected from a variety of markets in the Middle East and Asia as well as efforts to open

new markets. Brazils continued, long-term focus on developing non-traditional markets will buoy

expansion.

U.S. exports are forecast 5 percent lower at nearly 2.9 million tons. Increased production in Russiaand China to meet consumption needs as well as lingering non-tariff barriers to trade will weakendemand for U.S. product.

U.S. Exports Fail to Keep Pace with Brazil

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

M

illionM

etricTons

Brazil United States

Imports forecast to rise largely on developing and non-traditional markets

Global economic recovery is expected to stimulate consumption and raise import demand. WhileRussia, the EU and Japan remain the largest markets for broiler meat imports, their share of global

trade is forecast to continue to stagnate or erode in 2010.

Top Mark ets Share of World Imports

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

EU-27 Japan Russia

In the absence of a multilateral agreement on 2010 TRQs, the Russian forecast is based on 2009 TRQ

levels and allocations. While the 2010 outlook depends greatly on future policy decisions for not onlythe TRQ but also the chlorine ban and imposition of non-tariff barriers, imports are forecast 4 percent

lower at 855,000 tons. The reduction is expected as the Russian poultry industry, due to governmentfinancial support, will grow faster than consumption.



13/31

Larger imports are forecast to be led by non-traditional developing markets in the Middle East andSub-Saharan Africa which are slowly accounting for a greater portion of world trade. Demand in these

markets is spurred by population growth, rising incomes, and budding meat consumption. Poultry

performs particularly well in these markets as it is a lower cost animal protein (compared to beef andlamb), versatile, and does not have any religious taboo attached to consumption.

Broiler Imports By Region (1,000 tons - Ready to Eat Equivalent)


2009-2010

% Change2009-2010

Caribbean 220 215 220 5 2%Central America 55 60 65 5 8%East Asia 1,511 1,453 1,440 -13 -1%European Union 712 710 710 0 0%Former Soviet Union - 12 1,706 1,285 1,247 -38 -3%

Middle East 1,508 1,742 1,824 82 5%North America 615 656 676 20 3%Oceania 1 1 1 0 0%Other Europe 28 21 24 3 14%South America 413 295 310 15 5%Southeast Asia 399 400 412 12 3%Sub-Saharan Africa 636 735 785 50 7%




14/31

Turkey Meat

Production to rise slightly in 2010

Following a decline in 2009, production is forecast to rebound 2 percent to nearly 5.2 million tons on

gains by Brazil and the United States which more than offset a decline in the EU. The United States is

expected to rise 2 percent to 2.6 million tons. Brazils production is forecast to reach 480,000 tons onhigher demand from both the domestic and foreign market. The worlds largest producer, the EU is

expected to be stagnant.

Trade rises 4 percent as world economy recovers

Exports of turkey meat are forecast to rise nearly 4 percent to 551,000 tons. Both the United States

and Brazil are expected to benefit from renewed demand. Mexican imports are forecast to rise by

nearly 12 percent on demand for cuts for processing as the economy rebounds from recession.



15/31

Beef and Veal Selected Countries

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Production

9,28,9359,0249,3039,0258,592Brazil

7,98,0008,0908,1888,1508,090EU-27

5,55,7646,1326,1345,7675,681China

2,83,2003,1503,3003,1003,200Argentina2,72,6602,5252,4132,3752,250India

2,02,1002,1592,1722,1832,102Australia

1,61,6251,6001,6001,5501,725Mexico

1,21,3001,2881,2781,3291,470Canada

1,21,2801,3151,3701,4301,525Russia

1,21,2261,1681,1131,0571,005Pakistan

8,98,8769,4369,3929,5909,325Others

44,744,96645,88746,26345,55644,965Total Foreign

11,611,81612,16312,09611,98011,318United States

56,456,78258,05058,35957,53656,283Total

no

Total Dom. Consumption

8,28,3108,3528,6908,6498,550EU-27

7,47,4107,2527,1446,9696,795Brazil

5,55,7516,0806,0655,6925,614China

2,42,6422,7322,7712,5532,451Argentina

2,01,9851,8531,7351,6941,633India

2,01,9682,4412,3922,3612,492Russia

1,91,8801,9661,9611,8942,028Mexico

1,21,2321,1741,1321,0901,009Pakistan

1,11,1891,1741,1821,1591,188Japan

1,01,0801,0341,0681,0231,026Canada

10,510,35910,94010,97810,88710,382Others

43,843,80644,99845,11843,97143,168Total Foreign

12,112,31012,45212,82912,83312,664United States

55,956,11657,45057,94756,80455,832Total


Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.

2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.

3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.



16/31

Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Total Imports

77001,1371,030939978Russia

6672659686678686Japan

4470465642717711EU-27

3300408403383335Mexico3250200902920Vietnam

2290295308298250Korea, South

2270230242180151Canada

1150195361313215Egypt

1145129151124200Chile

1145118908988Hong Kong

1,71,7931,9411,8401,6871,527Others

5,35,1855,7775,8435,4375,161Total Foreign

1,31,2541,1511,3841,3991,632United States

6,66,4396,9287,2276,8366,793Total

no

Total Exports

1,81,5551,8012,1892,0841,845Brazil

1,31,3901,4071,4001,4301,388Australia

7675672678681617India

5525533496530577New Zealand

4475494457477596Canada

3560422534552754Argentina

3310361385460417Uruguay

2210233206240193Paraguay

1160203140218253EU-27

9089836859Nicaragua

2375419353244300Others

6,36,3256,6346,9216,9846,999Total Foreign

8785856650519316United States

7,27,1107,4907,5717,5037,315Total


Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.

2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.




17/31

Pork Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Production

50,348,50046,20542,87846,50545,553China

21,922,00022,59622,85821,79121,676EU-27

3,23,1233,0152,9902,8302,710Brazil

2,22,2052,0601,9101,8051,735Russia1,81,8501,8501,8321,7131,602Vietnam

1,61,7901,7861,7461,7481,765Canada

1,21,2851,2491,2501,2471,245Japan

1,21,2251,2251,2501,2151,175Philippines

1,11,1501,1611,1521,1581,195Mexico

1,01,0161,0561,0431,0001,036Korea, South

5,75,6465,7265,7145,5045,336Others

91,689,79087,92984,62386,51685,028Total Foreign

10,110,44610,5999,9629,5599,392United States

101,8100,23698,52894,58596,07594,420Total

no


50,348,30046,41242,72646,05145,139China

20,720,80021,02521,50720,63220,632EU-27

3,02,9543,1122,8032,6392,486Russia

2,52,4782,3902,2602,1911,949Brazil

2,42,4942,4872,4732,4522,509Japan

1,81,8941,8801,8551,7311,583Vietnam

1,71,6641,6051,5231,5381,556Mexico

1,41,4151,5191,5021,4201,311Korea, South

1,21,2671,2701,2751,2391,198Philippines

9958945926928944Taiwan

6,96,8736,9066,6196,3786,081Others

93,391,09789,55185,46987,19985,388Total Foreign

8,58,9258,8068,9658,6438,660United States

101,8100,02298,35794,43495,84294,048Total


Notes: 1/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.



18/31

Pork Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Total Imports

1,21,2101,2671,2101,1541,314Japan

77501,053894835752Russia

6600535451446420Mexico

4375430447410345Korea, South3345346302277263Hong Kong

2170194171145139Canada

2240238826262Ukraine

1170152141109105Australia

11504301989088China

19991979885Singapore

8841802655846703Others

5,04,9505,5384,6484,4724,276Total Foreign


5,45,3235,9155,0874,9214,740Total

no

Total Exports

1,21,2501,7261,2861,2841,143EU-27

1,11,1301,1291,0331,0811,084Canada

7645625730639761Brazil

2230223350544502China

1142142148130128Chile

8691806659Mexico

4548546056Australia

2011131416Korea, South

1011192019Vietnam

53221Croatia

1521222528Others

3,53,5784,0303,7373,8653,797Total Foreign

2,01,8872,1171,4251,3591,209United States

5,65,4656,1475,1625,2245,006Total


Notes: 1/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.



19/31

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Production

12,512,10011,84011,29110,35010,200China

11,410,98011,03310,3059,3559,350Brazil

8,68,6208,5358,3207,7408,169EU-27

2,82,8102,8532,6832,5922,498Mexico2,62,5502,4902,2402,0001,900India

1,91,7901,6001,3501,180900Russia

1,61,5001,4301,3201,2001,030Argentina

1,61,5251,4501,4231,3271,237Iran

1,21,2601,2551,2501,2581,166Japan

1,21,2001,1701,0501,100950Thailand

11,711,40011,21810,80910,2629,847Others

57,555,73554,87452,04148,36447,247Total Foreign

16,215,98016,56116,22515,93015,870United States

73,771,71571,43568,26664,29463,117Total

no


12,612,22011,95411,41510,37110,087China

8,68,6108,5048,3587,6558,082EU-27

8,07,8317,7927,3846,8536,612Brazil

3,33,2903,2893,0673,0162,868Mexico

2,72,6652,7442,5782,3732,139Russia

2,62,5492,4892,2392,0001,899India

1,91,9601,9261,9451,9701,880Japan

1,61,5391,4601,4641,3261,223Iran

1,41,3821,3401,2391,2021,069South Africa

1,41,3311,2701,2001,109941Argentina

15,214,73714,53713,60712,64912,260Others

59,758,11457,30554,49650,52449,060Total Foreign

13,413,05813,42713,58113,67113,430United States

73,171,17270,73268,07764,19562,490Total


Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.




20/31

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Total Imports

88551,1591,2221,1891,225Russia

7710712673605609EU-27

6700737696716748Japan

6625510470423484Saudi Arabia5490447393430374Mexico

3370399482343219China

2265211176119127Iraq

2290289238182167United Arab Emirates

2250236215243222Hong Kong

2230352163124104Venezuela

2,82,7522,7172,3531,9981,939Others

7,67,5377,7697,0816,3726,218Total Foreign


7,77,5737,8047,1096,3936,233Total

no

Total Exports

3,33,1503,2422,9222,5022,739Brazil

7720743635690696EU-27

4385383296261240Thailand

2250285358322332China

21741641259492Argentina

1147152139110102Canada

111063396460Chile

7070603897Kuwait

3527251618Australia

3720322Jordan

11081121059893Others

5,45,1865,2614,7074,1974,471Total Foreign

2,82,9973,1572,6782,3612,360United States

8,38,1838,4187,3856,5586,831Total


Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.




21/31

Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Production

1,81,8201,8301,7901,8581,919EU-27

4437438458353360Brazil

1170180169163155Canada

4035251917Russia1515151414Mexico

87755South Africa

55544China

nrnr444Others

2,52,4952,5102,4732,4202,478Total Foreign

2,62,5672,7962,6642,5432,464United States

5,15,0625,3065,1374,9634,942Total

no


1,81,8301,8351,7691,8411,888EU-27

3274234281197199Brazil

2185219213200197Mexico

1156163149144143Canada

85103100110124Russia

3338473930South Africa

3050352116China

nrnr232322Others

2,62,5932,6422,6172,5752,619Total Foreign

2,32,3482,4312,4012,2952,246United States

5,04,9415,0735,0184,8704,865Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.

2/ 'nr' = 'no data'.




22/31

Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Total Imports

1170204202189185Mexico

1120125103113128EU-27

45687591107Russia

2531403425South Africa2545301712China

999912Canada

00191918Others

4394482478472487Total Foreign

64453United States

4400486482477490Total

no

Total Exports

1163204177156161Brazil

1110120124130159EU-27

2425272724Canada

00432Others



5532656580564604Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.

2/ 'nr' = 'no data'.




23/31

Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

281,1281,400281,700282,000282,300282,500India

185,2179,788175,437173,830172,111169,567Brazil

104,9105,722105,948104,651109,908112,354China

88,688,94589,04388,46389,67289,319EU-2750,154,26055,66255,66454,26653,767Argentina

31,130,77530,09529,26228,45227,370Colombia

27,427,32128,04028,40027,78227,270Australia

22,122,70022,85023,31623,66924,309Mexico

17,417,90018,37019,00019,85021,100Russia

12,813,18013,89514,15514,65514,925Canada

42,660,79070,73876,74377,12177,513Others

863,6882,781891,778895,484899,786899,994Total Foreign

93,094,49196,03596,57396,34294,018United States

956,6977,272987,813992,057996,128994,012Total

no

Production (Calf Crop)

58,357,96057,45057,00057,00056,500India

50,949,56349,29848,84548,18847,309Brazil

41,542,57245,36045,35339,82739,441China

30,330,60031,00031,50030,62532,207EU-27

13,012,00014,90015,90015,80015,800Argentina

10,19,7009,0799,36910,1049,643Australia

6,86,9507,1007,3107,5057,950Russia

6,76,7756,7546,7326,9257,275Mexico

5,65,6755,6705,7505,7405,735Colombia

5,05,1405,2995,5405,3475,518Canada

14,319,06922,61523,64024,90024,072Others

242,9246,004254,525256,939251,961251,450Total Foreign

35,035,60036,11336,75937,01637,106United States

277,9281,604290,638293,698288,977288,556Total


Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

2/ From 2008, the Philippines is excluded.

From 2009, Turkey is no excluded.

From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.




24/31

Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Total Imports

5049543821Canada

35701021Brazil

3014182151Egypt

3557755814Russia1590817285Mexico

1815151550China

1720252625Japan

44444EU-27

33412Ukraine

101131218274315Others


2,22,0002,2842,4952,2891,816United States

2,42,3082,7372,9992,8002,384Total

no

Total Exports

1,21,1201,5981,4121,032559Canada

1,09257381,0891,2751,259Mexico

9910869719634573Australia

6515414438246113Brazil

3350376387469364EU-27

2310169469910Uruguay

3033515454China

1017283250New Zealand

22221Argentina

22172Ukraine

11599227285196Others

4,34,2894,3174,4004,1353,181Total Foreign


4,44,3494,4244,4664,1853,203Total


Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

2/ From 2008, the Philippines is excluded.

From 2009, Turkey is excluded.

From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.




25/31

Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Total Beginning Stocks

485,0462,913439,895418,504433,191421,234China

149,2152,960159,732161,526159,115156,973EU-27

35,133,89232,94733,14732,93832,323Brazil

20,219,56218,18717,18016,55016,500Russia10,612,18013,81014,90715,11014,810Canada

9,99,8999,7459,7599,6209,600Japan

9,59,3109,4019,0218,9119,068Mexico

8,28,2238,7428,5188,0988,044Korea, South

7,16,5267,0208,0557,0526,466Ukraine

2,22,1812,6052,4712,4902,530Australia

nr2,39851,52250,01347,416Others

737,1717,646704,482734,610743,088724,964Total Foreign

65,167,14868,17762,51661,46360,982United States

802,3784,794772,659797,126804,551785,946Total

no

Production (Pig Crop)

668,5667,669636,817592,080605,823618,587China

256,0254,250258,400265,100259,158257,362EU-27

44,743,30041,76039,15037,00035,500Russia

37,235,89034,84534,53033,30432,295Brazil

26,828,85031,06831,83532,27833,020Canada

17,117,40016,96017,05016,95017,000Japan

15,715,96615,92415,76715,70015,500Mexico

13,613,79213,79214,42213,94313,817Korea, South

7,06,6006,6196,9867,5436,865Ukraine

4,84,6194,4225,4805,3015,283Australia

nr5,03084,35681,46178,546Others

1,091,61,088,3361,065,6371,106,7561,108,4611,113,775Total Foreign

114,8114,402115,027112,873105,633103,975United States

1,206,51,202,7381,180,6641,219,6291,214,0941,217,750Total


Notes: 1/ nr = no record

2/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.

From 2009, Chile is excluded.




26/31

Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

O

no

Total Imports

1,11,10077037738284Russia

75861240139Ukraine

1080136196181Mexico

412323China22211Canada

22261EU-27

12322Korea, South

12212Others

1,21,195956537630413Total Foreign

5,66,4759,34810,0048,7638,191United States

6,87,67010,30410,5419,3938,604Total

no

Total Exports

5,66,4759,35710,0328,7778,215Canada

2,42,1001,508901967637EU-27

1,71,7001,6451,6091,7231,769China

21403Others

9,710,27712,51112,54611,46710,624Total Foreign


9,710,29812,60812,68311,63210,778Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.

From 2009, Chile is excluded.




27/31

Beef and Veal: Per Capita Consumption

Selected Countries

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oc

201

Per Capita Consumption no

62.6Argentina 64.4 69.2 67.5 64.6 5

37.5Australia 36.5 34.7 35.0 35.0 3

36.0Brazil 36.4 36.8 36.9 37.3 3

31.7Canada 31.3 32.4 31.1 32.3 3

24.6Chile 21.6 23.2 22.2 23.4 24.3China 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.3

17.1Colombia 17.6 16.0 14.6 16.3 1

17.5EU-27 17.7 17.7 17.0 16.9 1

10.4Egypt 11.6 10.4 7.5 7.1

14.8Hong Kong 14.8 15.0 18.9 22.7 2

1.5India 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7

5.6Iran 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.6

9.3Japan 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.4

23.4Kazakhstan 25.7 27.1 26.7 26.3 2

9.2Korea, South 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.4 1

18.9Mexico 17.4 17.9 17.7 16.8 1

22.7New Zealand 31.1 29.8 29.5 28.5 2

6.2Pakistan 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.0

28.0Paraguay 24.7 26.2 24.6 23.0 2

3.9Philippines 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.3 17.1Russia 16.3 16.6 17.1 13.8 1

14.8South Africa 15.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 1

4.4Taiwan 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.0

11.2Ukraine 11.7 10.9 10.5 8.9

42.8United States 43.0 42.6 41.0 40.2 3

55.5Uruguay 53.4 51.7 50.6 56.1 5

19.8Uzbekistan 20.7 21.7 22.3 23.2 2

15.8Venezuela 15.7 18.7 21.0 17.7 1

Note: May include meat of other bovines



28/31

Pork: Per Capita Consumption

Selected Countries

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oc

201


5.4Argentina 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2

21.3Australia 20.9 22.2 21.7 22.0 2

36.6Belarus 40.8 39.1 44.9 41.4 4

25.0Canada 25.2 26.6 25.5 24.9 2

17.8Chile 21.1 20.0 20.8 21.1 234.6China 35.0 32.3 34.9 36.1 3

3.0Colombia 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.4

42.2EU-27 42.1 43.9 42.8 42.3 4

59.6Hong Kong 60.4 61.5 65.0 65.1 6

19.7Japan 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.6 1

14.5Kazakhstan 14.8 15.1 14.9 14.9 1

27.3Korea, South 29.5 31.1 31.4 29.2 2

14.7Mexico 14.3 14.0 14.6 15.0 1

20.3New Zealand 20.5 21.1 20.4 21.8 2

25.3Norway 24.7 27.7 27.3 27.3 2

17.0Russia 18.2 19.4 21.7 20.7 2

3.9South Africa 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7

33.2Switzerland 34.0 34.7 36.7 35.8 3

41.6Taiwan 40.7 40.5 41.2 41.7 4

11.6Ukraine 11.7 14.7 18.0 16.0 129.3United States 29.0 29.8 29.0 29.1 2

4.7Venezuela 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7

19.0Vietnam 20.5 21.8 21.8 21.8 2



29/31

Broiler Meat: Per Capita Consumption

Selected Countries

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oc

201


24.0Argentina 28.0 30.0 31.4 32.5 3

34.0Australia 34.6 33.9 34.7 34.7 3

35.0Brazil 35.8 38.1 39.7 39.4 4

29.8Canada 30.1 29.9 30.0 28.8 2

25.6Chile 29.2 29.6 28.3 27.0 27.7China 7.9 8.6 9.0 9.1

17.7Colombia 19.6 21.4 23.0 23.0 2

16.5EU-27 15.6 17.0 17.3 17.5 1

38.8Hong Kong 38.8 36.1 36.2 36.9 3

1.7India 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2

2.8Indonesia 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7

18.9Iran 20.4 22.4 22.2 23.2 2

14.7Japan 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.4 1

10.6Korea, South 12.4 12.9 12.7 13.7 1

42.8Kuwait 46.7 50.7 65.9 72.5 7

38.5Malaysia 38.5 38.9 38.7 37.8 3

27.0Mexico 28.1 28.2 29.9 29.6 3

7.3Philippines 7.3 7.2 7.6 7.8

15.0Russia 16.7 18.2 19.5 19.0 2

38.1Saudi Arabia 35.4 36.8 37.6 41.3 422.5South Africa 25.1 25.6 27.5 28.2 2

27.7Taiwan 29.0 26.3 25.7 25.0 2

11.9Thailand 12.4 12.5 11.9 12.1 1

9.1Ukraine 11.2 13.2 17.7 17.8 1

44.5United Arab Emirates 48.8 54.9 63.8 61.7 5

45.4United States 45.8 45.1 44.2 42.6 4

31.5Venezuela 30.7 32.3 36.6 31.7 3

3.9Vietnam 4.4 5.4 6.3 6.1

10.0Yemen 9.0 9.4 8.7 10.3 1

Note: Middle East consumption is likely to be overstated due to transshipments in the region and temporary workers not included in

population statistics.



30/31

Notes to Readers

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the

current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade.Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview.

Data Modifications

The following countries have significant historical (pre-2007) changes to the PSD:

Cattle/Beef:

Canada Based on official Canadian data, historical changes (1990 to present) were madefor cattle inventories and slaughter as well as beef production.

Mexico Based on additional research, historical changes (1998 to present) were made for

cattle inventories and slaughter as well as beef production.

Nicaragua Starting in 2010, cattle is excluded.

South Africa Starting in 2010, cattle is excluded.

Venezuela Based on additional research, historical changes (2005 to present) were made

for beef production.

Swine/Pork:

Canada Based on official Canadian data and additional research, historical changes (1990to present) were made for swine inventories and slaughter as well as to pork production and

losses.

Mexico Based on efforts to harmonize with official swine inventory estimates from the

National System of Statistic and Geographic Information (INEGI) historical changes (1998to present) were for swine and sow inventory as well as pork production.

United States Based on official U.S. data, historical changes (1993 to present) were madefor pork production.

Broiler Meat:

Iraq Based on newly available information and additional research, production and tradehas been revised for 1996 onwards. The years 1993-1995 were also added.

Taiwan Production revised 1999 to present based on official Taiwan data.

Conversion RatesBeef &Veal Pork

Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30

HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201

Frozen: 0202Processed: 021020 & 160250

Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319

Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019,

160241, 160242, 160249

Broiler Meat Turkey Meat

Conversion Rate 1 1

HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13

Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14

Processed and Salted: 1602.32,

0210.99

Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26,

0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35

Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36

Processed: 1602.31

Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded.



31/31

Assumptions

BSE: Forecast assumes a continuation of trade policies due to BSE (bovine spongiformencephalopathy) currently in place by U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of October 9, 2009.

Other Diseases (AI, H1N1, FMD): Forecast reflects policies currently in place as a result ofoutbreaks as of October 9, 2009.

Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless

otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal afterslaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the

meat product exported.

FAS Reports from Overseas Offices

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submittedsince March 2009 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be

obtained on FAS Online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp .

PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this

system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be

reached through http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

Additional Resources

Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at:

http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp for additional data and analysis.

Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/.

Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp to view archived and future releasesof Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. The next release of this circular will be in

April 2010.

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Cattle, Beef, Poultry (Broiler,

Turkey and Other Poultry

products), Other animals and

meat (horse, sheep, etc), Animal

by products (rendered products,

hides and skins)

Lesley Taulman (202) 720-2781 [email protected] Swine and Pork
http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asphttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asphttp://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.aspmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asphttp://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asphttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp

livestock and poultry world markets and trade_10_2009

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