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    United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture

    ForeignAgriculturalService

    October 2009

    2010 Forecast: Economic Recovery Bolsters World Meat Trade

    World Meat Trade

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

    MillionMetricTons(CWE

    )

    Beef & Veal Pork Poultry (Broiler & Turkey Meat)

    Economic recovery in 2010 will help stimulate improved demand for meat and poultry.

    Beef and pork exports are forecast up 1 and 3 percent, respectively. Whereas improved demand for

    beef is expected worldwide, the boost in pork will generally be concentrated in North America.

    Brazil, the only key beef producer with excess supplies, is expected as the principal beneficiary of

    increased demand. However, both Brazil and the United States will be able to take advantage of the

    rise in pork.

    Broiler and turkey meat exports are forecast 2 and 4 percent higher, respectively. Brazil will be the

    primary supplier as it focuses on growth to non-traditional markets. The United States faces a

    decline in broiler shipments on weak demand in major markets but modest growth is expected for

    turkey.

    Note: Data in this document reflects the PSD (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline) and WASDE release of October 9, 2009

    Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

    http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline
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    Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

    October 2009

    Contents

    Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry

    2010 Forecast Overviews

    Beef

    Pork

    PoultryTurkey

    Summary Tables

    Beef Summary Table

    Pork Summary Table

    Broiler Meat Summary Table

    Turkey Meat Summary Table

    Cattle Summary Table

    Swine Summary Table

    Per Capita Consumption Summary Selected CountriesBeef

    Pork

    Broiler

    Notes to Readers

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    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Percent

    Change

    2009 to

    2010

    Beef and Veal /1 56,283 57,536 58,359 58,050 56,782 56,405 -0.7%

    Pork /1 94,420 96,075 94,585 98,528 100,236 101,883 1.6%Broiler and Turkey /2 68,059 69,257 73,403 76,741 76,777 78,894 2.8%

    Total 218,762 222,868 226,347 233,319 233,795 237,182 1.4%

    Beef and Veal /1 55,832 56,804 57,947 57,450 56,116 55,972 -0.3%

    Pork /1 94,048 95,842 94,434 98,357 100,022 101,867 1.8%

    Broiler & Turkey /2 67,355 69,065 73,095 75,805 76,113 78,202 2.7%

    Total 217,235 221,711 225,476 231,612 232,251 236,041 1.6%

    Beef and Veal /1 6,793 6,836 7,227 6,928 6,439 6,657 3.4%

    Pork /1 4,740 4,921 5,087 5,915 5,323 5,412 1.7%

    Broiler and Turkey /2 6,723 6,870 7,591 8,290 7,973 8,143 2.1%

    Total 18,256 18,627 19,905 21,133 19,735 20,212 2.4%

    Beef and Veal /1 7,315 7,503 7,571 7,490 7,110 7,206 1.4%

    Pork /1 5,006 5,224 5,162 6,147 5,465 5,608 2.6%

    Broiler and Turkey /2 7,435 7,122 7,965 9,074 8,715 8,890 2.0%

    Total 19,756 19,849 20,698 22,711 21,290 21,704 1.9%

    Beef and Veal /1 316 519 650 856 785 837 6.6%

    Pork /1 1,209 1,359 1,425 2,117 1,887 2,018 6.9%

    Broiler and Turkey /2 2,618 2,609 2,926 3,464 3,232 3,105 -3.9%

    Total 4,143 4,487 5,001 6,437 5,904 5,960 0.9%

    Change in

    Market

    Share

    Points

    Beef and Veal /1 4% 7% 9% 11% 11% 12% 1%

    Pork /1 24% 26% 28% 34% 35% 36% 1%

    Broiler and Turkey /2 35% 37% 37% 38% 37% 35% -2%

    Combined 21% 23% 24% 28% 28% 27% 0%

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Summary:

    Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork , and Poul try

    Production

    Consumption

    Imports

    Exports

    U.S. Expor ts

    U.S. Market Share (% ) of Exports Among Major Traders

    Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDAs official PSD database are reported. This means totals

    do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDAs database, which

    represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of

    countries reported changes periodically.

    1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

    2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

    (p ) preliminary; (f ) forecast

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    Beef: 2010 Forecast Overview

    World beef and veal production down slightly to 56.4 million tons

    Beef production in 2010 is forecast to continue its recent decline, albeit at a slower rate of less than onepercent. Production increases in Brazil (4 percent) and India (5 percent) will not offset less production

    in Argentina (13 percent), China (4 percent) and the United States (2 percent).

    World Beef Production Continues to Decline

    5556

    56

    57

    57

    58

    58

    59

    59

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

    MillionMetricTons

    Argentina: Production is forecast to tumble 13 percent to 2.8 million tons on tighter cattleinventories. Argentina is expected to begin 2010 with a herd of 50.2 million head, 10 percent lower

    than just two years ago. Drought, persisting in most of the country since mid-2007, has been the

    primary driver of herd reduction generating lower calf crops on diminished pregnancy rates anddepressed returns have forced producers to market more cattle than usual. Thus liquidation in 2008

    and 2009 will come to fruition in 2010 as fewer weaned calves, a smaller herd and a reduction of cows

    for slaughter will limit supplies. Export restrictions, domestic policies capping beef prices, and

    reduced profit margins will also stifle investment and production.

    China: Continuing contraction of the cattle herd is forecast to negatively impact beef production

    which will fall to just over 5.5 million tons comparable to the levels of 2003/2004. The herd,estimated at 104.9 million head at the beginning of 2010, will have contracted for 2 years. Backyard

    producers, which account for the majority of holdings, have been discouraged by a marketing system

    disadvantageous to small producers. Despite high cattle prices, production costs have risen at a fasterrate, squeezing profit margins. Uncertainty in the sector, which stifles production, has also been

    fostered by continued outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD).

    United States: Production is forecast to decline nearly 2 percent to 11.6 million tons on tighter

    supplies as the cattle herd has been contracting since 2007.

    Brazil: Production is forecast to rise 4 percent to 9.3 million tons. Unlike other major producers, theherd continues to expand and is forecast to reach 185.2 million head by 2010. Increased availability of

    slaughter cattle will not only enable packers to meet strong demand for exports, which accounts for the

    bulk of the increase, but also satisfy solid domestic demand.

    India: With the worlds largest bovine herd, beef and buffalo meat production is forecast to rise 5

    percent, primarily driven by strong domestic demand. Buffalo meat is cost competitive compared toother meat products and is widely accepted among Indian consumers. Firm demand for exports will

    also bolster production.

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    Beef and Veal Imports by Region (1,000 tons - CWE)

    Region 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)AbsoluteChange

    2009-2010

    % Change2009-2010

    Caribbean 18 18 18 0 0%

    Central America 45 44 44 0 0%East Asia 1,181 1,237 1,263 26 2%European Union 465 470 490 20 4%Former Soviet Union - 12 1,212 759 838 79 10%Middle East 604 583 598 15 3%North Africa 305 260 300 40 15%North America 1,789 1,824 1,929 105 6%Oceania 20 18 18 0 0%Other Europe 67 54 54 0 0%South America 490 434 297 -137 -32%South Asia 6 6 6 0 0%Southeast Asia 532 529 591 62 12%Sub-Saharan Africa 194 203 211 8 4%

    Note: Regions include a limited set of major trading countries.

    Exports: Recovery in 2010 elusive

    World trade is forecast to rise a mere 1 percent as global demand fails to fully rebound and majorsuppliers struggle to generate adequate supplies. Australian and New Zealand exports are forecast to

    fall 3 and 2 percent respectively as they will be limited by production declines. Brazil is forecast to rise

    a stunning 20 percent a trend that will not apply to its South American counterparts.

    Exports Rebound:

    Strongly for Brazil, Moderately for India

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)

    Year

    MillionMetricTons

    Brazil India

    Brazil: Although the cattle sector is facing challenges due to industry restructuring and two years ofreduced exports, the outlook for 2010 is extremely positive with exports rising to nearly 1.9 million

    tons. While still below the historical high of 2007, the increase will reinforce Brazils position as the

    worlds largest beef exporter and restore global market share. It is expected that global economic

    recovery could generate opportunities in the Middle East, recovery of shipments to the EU willcontinue, limited competing South American supplies will spur shipments to Russia, and theColumbia-Venezuela dispute will open avenues into Venezuela.

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    Imports: Lackluster as demand is slow to rebound from recession

    Global economic recovery will somewhat renew demand in 2010 and there will be few countries withnoteworthy forecasts.

    Russia: In the absence of a multilateral agreement on 2010 TRQs, the forecast is based on 2009 TRQlevels and allocations. As production declines persist and the economy rebounds, imports are expected

    to continue to fulfill demand. Imports are forecast to rise 11 percent to 780,000 remaining well below

    the 2008 peak.

    United States: The worlds largest beef importer is forecast to increase by 4 percent to 1.3 milliontons bolstered by reduced U.S. production, a strong dollar, and robust demand for lean trimmings.

    EU: Imports are forecast upward by 4 percent to 490,000 tons. Although lower production isexpected to boost imports, it will be moderately constrained by stagnant demand as other proteins,

    particularly poultry, continue to make consumption gains.

    Venezuela: Imports will plunge 60 percent to 100,000 tons despite growing demand as imports willbe limited by its disruption with Columbia. With other South American producers failing to raise

    substantial supplies, Brazil is likely to be the key supplier.

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    Pork: 2010 Forecast Overview

    Global Pork production forecast up 2 percent to 101.9 million tons

    China is the driving force behind global production growth in 2010. Excluding China, production isfractionally lower, as contraction in the United States, Canada, and the EU slightly offsets gains in

    Brazil, Russia, and the Ukraine.

    C h inese P ork P rodu c t ion U p W hile R es t o f W or ld F l a t

    40

    42

    44

    46

    48

    50

    52

    54

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Y e a r

    M

    illionM

    etr

    icTons

    C hin a R es t o f W o rld

    China: Production is again forecast higher, up 4 percent to 50.3 million tons. Expansion is fueled bygovernment sow subsidies and improved animal disease control notably for Porcine Reproductive and

    Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS).

    United States: Higher feed prices and relatively weak hog prices over the past two years results in aforecast of slightly lower production (2 percent) as producers reduce herds.

    Canada: Production is forecast to fall to the lowest level 9 years, plunging 7 percent to 1.7 milliontons. A shrinking swine herd, as the industry faces a third consecutive year of low returns, will

    translate to lower pork production.

    Brazil: Production is forecast up 4 percent, bolstered by strong domestic demand, with pork prices

    competitive with beef, and growth in the export market.

    Russia: Moderate growth is expected as government subsidies continue to stimulate investments in

    the pork industry. Producers are supported by more efficient operations, better swine genetics, and

    expected lower feed prices. Production is forecast 4 percent higher at nearly 2.3 million tons.

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    U.S . Pork Ex por ts Lea d ing G rowth

    0

    0 .5

    1

    1 .5

    2

    2 .5

    2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 (p ) 2 0 1 0 ( f)

    Y e ar

    M

    illionM

    etricTons

    U nited S ta tes E U -27 Canada B raz il

    Exports: Up slightly, resuming longer term growth trend

    Exports, primarily from the United States and Brazil, are forecast up 3 percent to 5.6 million tons asexporters are optimistic about growth in the world economy in 2010 and expect demand from major

    markets to strengthen.

    United States: Moderate gains are expected as U.S. shipments to major markets are expected to

    strengthen with improved economic conditions, a weaker dollar, and competitive prices. Reliance onexport markets rises slightly as 20 percent of U.S. production is exported.

    Brazil: Growth is expected to new markets, while demand remains from traditional markets.

    EU-27 and Canada: Exports are forecast down 4 and 3 percent, respectively, as lower production

    reduces exportable supplies.

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    Pork Imports by Region (1,000 tons - CWE)

    Region 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)AbsoluteChange

    2009-2010

    % Change2009-2010

    Caribbean 52 65 73 8 12%

    Central America 39 44 45 1 2%East Asia 2,532 2,159 2,166 7 0%European Union 56 50 50 0 0%Former Soviet Union - 12 1,291 990 950 -40 -4%North America 1,106 1,143 1,210 67 6%Oceania 186 212 218 6 3%Other Europe 146 154 157 3 2%South America 75 71 74 3 4%Southeast Asia 178 196 195 -1 -1%Sub-Saharan Africa 113 160 165 5 3%

    Note: Regions include a limited set of major trading countries.

    Imports: Slight recovery due to North American growth

    North American imports are forecast to increase more rapidly than most other major importing regions

    as global imports rise 2 percent to 5.4 million tons.

    Canada: Imports are forecast to jump 18 percent due to a stronger Canadian dollar and firm demand

    for high quality fresh cuts at a time when domestic pork production continues to decline.

    Mexico: Imports forecast up 3 percent as demand remains firm.

    United States: Imports forecast up 5 percent on tight supplies expected due to lower domestic

    production and greater exports.

    South Korea: A stronger economy and Korean won are forecast to bolster imports up, 7 percent.

    Ukraine: A currency devaluation and continued economic weakness are expected adversely affect

    imports, forecast 17 percent lower.

    China: Imports, which account for a negligible amount of consumption, are expected to fall 20percent to 120,000 tons, as abundant local supplies dampen import demand.

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    Poultry: 2010 Forecast Overview

    Broiler Meat

    Production forecast to rebound in 2010

    Following recession-induced stagnant production, 2010 is forecast up 3 percent at 73.7 million tons.

    World Broiler Meat Production Growth Recovers

    56

    58

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    70

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    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

    M

    illionM

    etricTons

    Growth is forecast to be largely driven by new historic production levels in Brazil and China (4 and 3

    percent higher, respectively). Brazils rise is spurred by strong export and domestic demand. Chinasincrease is in response to strong domestic demand due to economic expansion. Contributing to global

    growth will be the worlds leading producer, the United States, which is forecast 2 percent higher at

    16.2 million tons. Virtually all other major producers, particularly Argentina, India and Russia are

    forecast to expand production.

    Major Producers:

    Annual Production % Changes

    -8%

    -4%

    0%

    4%

    8%

    12%

    2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)

    Year

    Brazil China United States

    Exports forecast slightly higher amid growing supplies

    Exports are forecast 2 percent higher at 8.3 million tons. Plentiful supplies partnered with increasing

    consumption as the macroeconomic outlook improves will facilitate the positive environment forinternational trade.

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    Brazils expanding exports are forecast 6 percent higher to a record of over 3.3 million tons. Importdemand is expected from a variety of markets in the Middle East and Asia as well as efforts to open

    new markets. Brazils continued, long-term focus on developing non-traditional markets will buoy

    expansion.

    U.S. exports are forecast 5 percent lower at nearly 2.9 million tons. Increased production in Russiaand China to meet consumption needs as well as lingering non-tariff barriers to trade will weakendemand for U.S. product.

    U.S. Exports Fail to Keep Pace with Brazil

    2

    2.2

    2.4

    2.6

    2.8

    3

    3.2

    3.4

    3.6

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

    M

    illionM

    etricTons

    Brazil United States

    Imports forecast to rise largely on developing and non-traditional markets

    Global economic recovery is expected to stimulate consumption and raise import demand. WhileRussia, the EU and Japan remain the largest markets for broiler meat imports, their share of global

    trade is forecast to continue to stagnate or erode in 2010.

    Top Mark ets Share of World Imports

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)Year

    EU-27 Japan Russia

    In the absence of a multilateral agreement on 2010 TRQs, the Russian forecast is based on 2009 TRQ

    levels and allocations. While the 2010 outlook depends greatly on future policy decisions for not onlythe TRQ but also the chlorine ban and imposition of non-tariff barriers, imports are forecast 4 percent

    lower at 855,000 tons. The reduction is expected as the Russian poultry industry, due to governmentfinancial support, will grow faster than consumption.

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    Larger imports are forecast to be led by non-traditional developing markets in the Middle East andSub-Saharan Africa which are slowly accounting for a greater portion of world trade. Demand in these

    markets is spurred by population growth, rising incomes, and budding meat consumption. Poultry

    performs particularly well in these markets as it is a lower cost animal protein (compared to beef andlamb), versatile, and does not have any religious taboo attached to consumption.

    Broiler Imports By Region (1,000 tons - Ready to Eat Equivalent)

    Region 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (f)AbsoluteChange

    2009-2010

    % Change2009-2010

    Caribbean 220 215 220 5 2%Central America 55 60 65 5 8%East Asia 1,511 1,453 1,440 -13 -1%European Union 712 710 710 0 0%Former Soviet Union - 12 1,706 1,285 1,247 -38 -3%

    Middle East 1,508 1,742 1,824 82 5%North America 615 656 676 20 3%Oceania 1 1 1 0 0%Other Europe 28 21 24 3 14%South America 413 295 310 15 5%Southeast Asia 399 400 412 12 3%Sub-Saharan Africa 636 735 785 50 7%

    Note: Regions include a limited set of major trading countries.

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    Turkey Meat

    Production to rise slightly in 2010

    Following a decline in 2009, production is forecast to rebound 2 percent to nearly 5.2 million tons on

    gains by Brazil and the United States which more than offset a decline in the EU. The United States is

    expected to rise 2 percent to 2.6 million tons. Brazils production is forecast to reach 480,000 tons onhigher demand from both the domestic and foreign market. The worlds largest producer, the EU is

    expected to be stagnant.

    Trade rises 4 percent as world economy recovers

    Exports of turkey meat are forecast to rise nearly 4 percent to 551,000 tons. Both the United States

    and Brazil are expected to benefit from renewed demand. Mexican imports are forecast to rise by

    nearly 12 percent on demand for cuts for processing as the economy rebounds from recession.

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    Beef and Veal Selected Countries

    1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Production

    9,28,9359,0249,3039,0258,592Brazil

    7,98,0008,0908,1888,1508,090EU-27

    5,55,7646,1326,1345,7675,681China

    2,83,2003,1503,3003,1003,200Argentina2,72,6602,5252,4132,3752,250India

    2,02,1002,1592,1722,1832,102Australia

    1,61,6251,6001,6001,5501,725Mexico

    1,21,3001,2881,2781,3291,470Canada

    1,21,2801,3151,3701,4301,525Russia

    1,21,2261,1681,1131,0571,005Pakistan

    8,98,8769,4369,3929,5909,325Others

    44,744,96645,88746,26345,55644,965Total Foreign

    11,611,81612,16312,09611,98011,318United States

    56,456,78258,05058,35957,53656,283Total

    no

    Total Dom. Consumption

    8,28,3108,3528,6908,6498,550EU-27

    7,47,4107,2527,1446,9696,795Brazil

    5,55,7516,0806,0655,6925,614China

    2,42,6422,7322,7712,5532,451Argentina

    2,01,9851,8531,7351,6941,633India

    2,01,9682,4412,3922,3612,492Russia

    1,91,8801,9661,9611,8942,028Mexico

    1,21,2321,1741,1321,0901,009Pakistan

    1,11,1891,1741,1821,1591,188Japan

    1,01,0801,0341,0681,0231,026Canada

    10,510,35910,94010,97810,88710,382Others

    43,843,80644,99845,11843,97143,168Total Foreign

    12,112,31012,45212,82912,83312,664United States

    55,956,11657,45057,94756,80455,832Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.

    2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.

    3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary

    1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Total Imports

    77001,1371,030939978Russia

    6672659686678686Japan

    4470465642717711EU-27

    3300408403383335Mexico3250200902920Vietnam

    2290295308298250Korea, South

    2270230242180151Canada

    1150195361313215Egypt

    1145129151124200Chile

    1145118908988Hong Kong

    1,71,7931,9411,8401,6871,527Others

    5,35,1855,7775,8435,4375,161Total Foreign

    1,31,2541,1511,3841,3991,632United States

    6,66,4396,9287,2276,8366,793Total

    no

    Total Exports

    1,81,5551,8012,1892,0841,845Brazil

    1,31,3901,4071,4001,4301,388Australia

    7675672678681617India

    5525533496530577New Zealand

    4475494457477596Canada

    3560422534552754Argentina

    3310361385460417Uruguay

    2210233206240193Paraguay

    1160203140218253EU-27

    9089836859Nicaragua

    2375419353244300Others

    6,36,3256,6346,9216,9846,999Total Foreign

    8785856650519316United States

    7,27,1107,4907,5717,5037,315Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.

    2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.

    3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Pork Selected Countries Summary

    1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Production

    50,348,50046,20542,87846,50545,553China

    21,922,00022,59622,85821,79121,676EU-27

    3,23,1233,0152,9902,8302,710Brazil

    2,22,2052,0601,9101,8051,735Russia1,81,8501,8501,8321,7131,602Vietnam

    1,61,7901,7861,7461,7481,765Canada

    1,21,2851,2491,2501,2471,245Japan

    1,21,2251,2251,2501,2151,175Philippines

    1,11,1501,1611,1521,1581,195Mexico

    1,01,0161,0561,0431,0001,036Korea, South

    5,75,6465,7265,7145,5045,336Others

    91,689,79087,92984,62386,51685,028Total Foreign

    10,110,44610,5999,9629,5599,392United States

    101,8100,23698,52894,58596,07594,420Total

    no

    Total Dom. Consumption

    50,348,30046,41242,72646,05145,139China

    20,720,80021,02521,50720,63220,632EU-27

    3,02,9543,1122,8032,6392,486Russia

    2,52,4782,3902,2602,1911,949Brazil

    2,42,4942,4872,4732,4522,509Japan

    1,81,8941,8801,8551,7311,583Vietnam

    1,71,6641,6051,5231,5381,556Mexico

    1,41,4151,5191,5021,4201,311Korea, South

    1,21,2671,2701,2751,2391,198Philippines

    9958945926928944Taiwan

    6,96,8736,9066,6196,3786,081Others

    93,391,09789,55185,46987,19985,388Total Foreign

    8,58,9258,8068,9658,6438,660United States

    101,8100,02298,35794,43495,84294,048Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Pork Selected Countries Summary

    1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Total Imports

    1,21,2101,2671,2101,1541,314Japan

    77501,053894835752Russia

    6600535451446420Mexico

    4375430447410345Korea, South3345346302277263Hong Kong

    2170194171145139Canada

    2240238826262Ukraine

    1170152141109105Australia

    11504301989088China

    19991979885Singapore

    8841802655846703Others

    5,04,9505,5384,6484,4724,276Total Foreign

    3373377439449464United States

    5,45,3235,9155,0874,9214,740Total

    no

    Total Exports

    1,21,2501,7261,2861,2841,143EU-27

    1,11,1301,1291,0331,0811,084Canada

    7645625730639761Brazil

    2230223350544502China

    1142142148130128Chile

    8691806659Mexico

    4548546056Australia

    2011131416Korea, South

    1011192019Vietnam

    53221Croatia

    1521222528Others

    3,53,5784,0303,7373,8653,797Total Foreign

    2,01,8872,1171,4251,3591,209United States

    5,65,4656,1475,1625,2245,006Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

    1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Production

    12,512,10011,84011,29110,35010,200China

    11,410,98011,03310,3059,3559,350Brazil

    8,68,6208,5358,3207,7408,169EU-27

    2,82,8102,8532,6832,5922,498Mexico2,62,5502,4902,2402,0001,900India

    1,91,7901,6001,3501,180900Russia

    1,61,5001,4301,3201,2001,030Argentina

    1,61,5251,4501,4231,3271,237Iran

    1,21,2601,2551,2501,2581,166Japan

    1,21,2001,1701,0501,100950Thailand

    11,711,40011,21810,80910,2629,847Others

    57,555,73554,87452,04148,36447,247Total Foreign

    16,215,98016,56116,22515,93015,870United States

    73,771,71571,43568,26664,29463,117Total

    no

    Total Dom. Consumption

    12,612,22011,95411,41510,37110,087China

    8,68,6108,5048,3587,6558,082EU-27

    8,07,8317,7927,3846,8536,612Brazil

    3,33,2903,2893,0673,0162,868Mexico

    2,72,6652,7442,5782,3732,139Russia

    2,62,5492,4892,2392,0001,899India

    1,91,9601,9261,9451,9701,880Japan

    1,61,5391,4601,4641,3261,223Iran

    1,41,3821,3401,2391,2021,069South Africa

    1,41,3311,2701,2001,109941Argentina

    15,214,73714,53713,60712,64912,260Others

    59,758,11457,30554,49650,52449,060Total Foreign

    13,413,05813,42713,58113,67113,430United States

    73,171,17270,73268,07764,19562,490Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.

    2/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

    1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Total Imports

    88551,1591,2221,1891,225Russia

    7710712673605609EU-27

    6700737696716748Japan

    6625510470423484Saudi Arabia5490447393430374Mexico

    3370399482343219China

    2265211176119127Iraq

    2290289238182167United Arab Emirates

    2250236215243222Hong Kong

    2230352163124104Venezuela

    2,82,7522,7172,3531,9981,939Others

    7,67,5377,7697,0816,3726,218Total Foreign

    3635282115United States

    7,77,5737,8047,1096,3936,233Total

    no

    Total Exports

    3,33,1503,2422,9222,5022,739Brazil

    7720743635690696EU-27

    4385383296261240Thailand

    2250285358322332China

    21741641259492Argentina

    1147152139110102Canada

    111063396460Chile

    7070603897Kuwait

    3527251618Australia

    3720322Jordan

    11081121059893Others

    5,45,1865,2614,7074,1974,471Total Foreign

    2,82,9973,1572,6782,3612,360United States

    8,38,1838,4187,3856,5586,831Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.

    2/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary

    1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Production

    1,81,8201,8301,7901,8581,919EU-27

    4437438458353360Brazil

    1170180169163155Canada

    4035251917Russia1515151414Mexico

    87755South Africa

    55544China

    nrnr444Others

    2,52,4952,5102,4732,4202,478Total Foreign

    2,62,5672,7962,6642,5432,464United States

    5,15,0625,3065,1374,9634,942Total

    no

    Total Dom. Consumption

    1,81,8301,8351,7691,8411,888EU-27

    3274234281197199Brazil

    2185219213200197Mexico

    1156163149144143Canada

    85103100110124Russia

    3338473930South Africa

    3050352116China

    nrnr232322Others

    2,62,5932,6422,6172,5752,619Total Foreign

    2,32,3482,4312,4012,2952,246United States

    5,04,9415,0735,0184,8704,865Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.

    2/ 'nr' = 'no data'.

    3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary

    1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Total Imports

    1170204202189185Mexico

    1120125103113128EU-27

    45687591107Russia

    2531403425South Africa2545301712China

    999912Canada

    00191918Others

    4394482478472487Total Foreign

    64453United States

    4400486482477490Total

    no

    Total Exports

    1163204177156161Brazil

    1110120124130159EU-27

    2425272724Canada

    00432Others

    3297349332316346Total Foreign

    2235307248248258United States

    5532656580564604Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.

    2/ 'nr' = 'no data'.

    3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Cattle Selected Countries Summary

    (in 1,000 head)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Total Cattle Beg. Stks

    281,1281,400281,700282,000282,300282,500India

    185,2179,788175,437173,830172,111169,567Brazil

    104,9105,722105,948104,651109,908112,354China

    88,688,94589,04388,46389,67289,319EU-2750,154,26055,66255,66454,26653,767Argentina

    31,130,77530,09529,26228,45227,370Colombia

    27,427,32128,04028,40027,78227,270Australia

    22,122,70022,85023,31623,66924,309Mexico

    17,417,90018,37019,00019,85021,100Russia

    12,813,18013,89514,15514,65514,925Canada

    42,660,79070,73876,74377,12177,513Others

    863,6882,781891,778895,484899,786899,994Total Foreign

    93,094,49196,03596,57396,34294,018United States

    956,6977,272987,813992,057996,128994,012Total

    no

    Production (Calf Crop)

    58,357,96057,45057,00057,00056,500India

    50,949,56349,29848,84548,18847,309Brazil

    41,542,57245,36045,35339,82739,441China

    30,330,60031,00031,50030,62532,207EU-27

    13,012,00014,90015,90015,80015,800Argentina

    10,19,7009,0799,36910,1049,643Australia

    6,86,9507,1007,3107,5057,950Russia

    6,76,7756,7546,7326,9257,275Mexico

    5,65,6755,6705,7505,7405,735Colombia

    5,05,1405,2995,5405,3475,518Canada

    14,319,06922,61523,64024,90024,072Others

    242,9246,004254,525256,939251,961251,450Total Foreign

    35,035,60036,11336,75937,01637,106United States

    277,9281,604290,638293,698288,977288,556Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

    2/ From 2008, the Philippines is excluded.

    From 2009, Turkey is no excluded.

    From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.

    3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Cattle Selected Countries Summary

    (in 1,000 head)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Total Imports

    5049543821Canada

    35701021Brazil

    3014182151Egypt

    3557755814Russia1590817285Mexico

    1815151550China

    1720252625Japan

    44444EU-27

    33412Ukraine

    101131218274315Others

    2308453504511568Total Foreign

    2,22,0002,2842,4952,2891,816United States

    2,42,3082,7372,9992,8002,384Total

    no

    Total Exports

    1,21,1201,5981,4121,032559Canada

    1,09257381,0891,2751,259Mexico

    9910869719634573Australia

    6515414438246113Brazil

    3350376387469364EU-27

    2310169469910Uruguay

    3033515454China

    1017283250New Zealand

    22221Argentina

    22172Ukraine

    11599227285196Others

    4,34,2894,3174,4004,1353,181Total Foreign

    60107665022United States

    4,44,3494,4244,4664,1853,203Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

    2/ From 2008, the Philippines is excluded.

    From 2009, Turkey is excluded.

    From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.

    3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Swine Selected Countries Summary

    (in 1,000 head)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Total Beginning Stocks

    485,0462,913439,895418,504433,191421,234China

    149,2152,960159,732161,526159,115156,973EU-27

    35,133,89232,94733,14732,93832,323Brazil

    20,219,56218,18717,18016,55016,500Russia10,612,18013,81014,90715,11014,810Canada

    9,99,8999,7459,7599,6209,600Japan

    9,59,3109,4019,0218,9119,068Mexico

    8,28,2238,7428,5188,0988,044Korea, South

    7,16,5267,0208,0557,0526,466Ukraine

    2,22,1812,6052,4712,4902,530Australia

    nr2,39851,52250,01347,416Others

    737,1717,646704,482734,610743,088724,964Total Foreign

    65,167,14868,17762,51661,46360,982United States

    802,3784,794772,659797,126804,551785,946Total

    no

    Production (Pig Crop)

    668,5667,669636,817592,080605,823618,587China

    256,0254,250258,400265,100259,158257,362EU-27

    44,743,30041,76039,15037,00035,500Russia

    37,235,89034,84534,53033,30432,295Brazil

    26,828,85031,06831,83532,27833,020Canada

    17,117,40016,96017,05016,95017,000Japan

    15,715,96615,92415,76715,70015,500Mexico

    13,613,79213,79214,42213,94313,817Korea, South

    7,06,6006,6196,9867,5436,865Ukraine

    4,84,6194,4225,4805,3015,283Australia

    nr5,03084,35681,46178,546Others

    1,091,61,088,3361,065,6371,106,7561,108,4611,113,775Total Foreign

    114,8114,402115,027112,873105,633103,975United States

    1,206,51,202,7381,180,6641,219,6291,214,0941,217,750Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ nr = no record

    2/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.

    From 2009, Chile is excluded.

    3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Swine Selected Countries Summary

    (in 1,000 head)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201

    O

    no

    Total Imports

    1,11,10077037738284Russia

    75861240139Ukraine

    1080136196181Mexico

    412323China22211Canada

    22261EU-27

    12322Korea, South

    12212Others

    1,21,195956537630413Total Foreign

    5,66,4759,34810,0048,7638,191United States

    6,87,67010,30410,5419,3938,604Total

    no

    Total Exports

    5,66,4759,35710,0328,7778,215Canada

    2,42,1001,508901967637EU-27

    1,71,7001,6451,6091,7231,769China

    21403Others

    9,710,27712,51112,54611,46710,624Total Foreign

    2197137165154United States

    9,710,29812,60812,68311,63210,778Total

    Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

    Notes: 1/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.

    From 2009, Chile is excluded.

    2/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.

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    Beef and Veal: Per Capita Consumption

    Selected Countries

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    Oc

    201

    Per Capita Consumption no

    62.6Argentina 64.4 69.2 67.5 64.6 5

    37.5Australia 36.5 34.7 35.0 35.0 3

    36.0Brazil 36.4 36.8 36.9 37.3 3

    31.7Canada 31.3 32.4 31.1 32.3 3

    24.6Chile 21.6 23.2 22.2 23.4 24.3China 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.3

    17.1Colombia 17.6 16.0 14.6 16.3 1

    17.5EU-27 17.7 17.7 17.0 16.9 1

    10.4Egypt 11.6 10.4 7.5 7.1

    14.8Hong Kong 14.8 15.0 18.9 22.7 2

    1.5India 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7

    5.6Iran 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.6

    9.3Japan 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.4

    23.4Kazakhstan 25.7 27.1 26.7 26.3 2

    9.2Korea, South 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.4 1

    18.9Mexico 17.4 17.9 17.7 16.8 1

    22.7New Zealand 31.1 29.8 29.5 28.5 2

    6.2Pakistan 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.0

    28.0Paraguay 24.7 26.2 24.6 23.0 2

    3.9Philippines 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.3 17.1Russia 16.3 16.6 17.1 13.8 1

    14.8South Africa 15.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 1

    4.4Taiwan 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.0

    11.2Ukraine 11.7 10.9 10.5 8.9

    42.8United States 43.0 42.6 41.0 40.2 3

    55.5Uruguay 53.4 51.7 50.6 56.1 5

    19.8Uzbekistan 20.7 21.7 22.3 23.2 2

    15.8Venezuela 15.7 18.7 21.0 17.7 1

    Note: May include meat of other bovines

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    Pork: Per Capita Consumption

    Selected Countries

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    Oc

    201

    Per Capita Consumption no

    5.4Argentina 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2

    21.3Australia 20.9 22.2 21.7 22.0 2

    36.6Belarus 40.8 39.1 44.9 41.4 4

    25.0Canada 25.2 26.6 25.5 24.9 2

    17.8Chile 21.1 20.0 20.8 21.1 234.6China 35.0 32.3 34.9 36.1 3

    3.0Colombia 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.4

    42.2EU-27 42.1 43.9 42.8 42.3 4

    59.6Hong Kong 60.4 61.5 65.0 65.1 6

    19.7Japan 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.6 1

    14.5Kazakhstan 14.8 15.1 14.9 14.9 1

    27.3Korea, South 29.5 31.1 31.4 29.2 2

    14.7Mexico 14.3 14.0 14.6 15.0 1

    20.3New Zealand 20.5 21.1 20.4 21.8 2

    25.3Norway 24.7 27.7 27.3 27.3 2

    17.0Russia 18.2 19.4 21.7 20.7 2

    3.9South Africa 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7

    33.2Switzerland 34.0 34.7 36.7 35.8 3

    41.6Taiwan 40.7 40.5 41.2 41.7 4

    11.6Ukraine 11.7 14.7 18.0 16.0 129.3United States 29.0 29.8 29.0 29.1 2

    4.7Venezuela 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7

    19.0Vietnam 20.5 21.8 21.8 21.8 2

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    Broiler Meat: Per Capita Consumption

    Selected Countries

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    Oc

    201

    Per Capita Consumption no

    24.0Argentina 28.0 30.0 31.4 32.5 3

    34.0Australia 34.6 33.9 34.7 34.7 3

    35.0Brazil 35.8 38.1 39.7 39.4 4

    29.8Canada 30.1 29.9 30.0 28.8 2

    25.6Chile 29.2 29.6 28.3 27.0 27.7China 7.9 8.6 9.0 9.1

    17.7Colombia 19.6 21.4 23.0 23.0 2

    16.5EU-27 15.6 17.0 17.3 17.5 1

    38.8Hong Kong 38.8 36.1 36.2 36.9 3

    1.7India 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2

    2.8Indonesia 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7

    18.9Iran 20.4 22.4 22.2 23.2 2

    14.7Japan 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.4 1

    10.6Korea, South 12.4 12.9 12.7 13.7 1

    42.8Kuwait 46.7 50.7 65.9 72.5 7

    38.5Malaysia 38.5 38.9 38.7 37.8 3

    27.0Mexico 28.1 28.2 29.9 29.6 3

    7.3Philippines 7.3 7.2 7.6 7.8

    15.0Russia 16.7 18.2 19.5 19.0 2

    38.1Saudi Arabia 35.4 36.8 37.6 41.3 422.5South Africa 25.1 25.6 27.5 28.2 2

    27.7Taiwan 29.0 26.3 25.7 25.0 2

    11.9Thailand 12.4 12.5 11.9 12.1 1

    9.1Ukraine 11.2 13.2 17.7 17.8 1

    44.5United Arab Emirates 48.8 54.9 63.8 61.7 5

    45.4United States 45.8 45.1 44.2 42.6 4

    31.5Venezuela 30.7 32.3 36.6 31.7 3

    3.9Vietnam 4.4 5.4 6.3 6.1

    10.0Yemen 9.0 9.4 8.7 10.3 1

    Note: Middle East consumption is likely to be overstated due to transshipments in the region and temporary workers not included in

    population statistics.

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    Notes to Readers

    The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the

    current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade.Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview.

    Data Modifications

    The following countries have significant historical (pre-2007) changes to the PSD:

    Cattle/Beef:

    Canada Based on official Canadian data, historical changes (1990 to present) were madefor cattle inventories and slaughter as well as beef production.

    Mexico Based on additional research, historical changes (1998 to present) were made for

    cattle inventories and slaughter as well as beef production.

    Nicaragua Starting in 2010, cattle is excluded.

    South Africa Starting in 2010, cattle is excluded.

    Venezuela Based on additional research, historical changes (2005 to present) were made

    for beef production.

    Swine/Pork:

    Canada Based on official Canadian data and additional research, historical changes (1990to present) were made for swine inventories and slaughter as well as to pork production and

    losses.

    Mexico Based on efforts to harmonize with official swine inventory estimates from the

    National System of Statistic and Geographic Information (INEGI) historical changes (1998to present) were for swine and sow inventory as well as pork production.

    United States Based on official U.S. data, historical changes (1993 to present) were madefor pork production.

    Broiler Meat:

    Iraq Based on newly available information and additional research, production and tradehas been revised for 1996 onwards. The years 1993-1995 were also added.

    Taiwan Production revised 1999 to present based on official Taiwan data.

    Conversion RatesBeef &Veal Pork

    Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30

    HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201

    Frozen: 0202Processed: 021020 & 160250

    Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319

    Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019,

    160241, 160242, 160249

    Broiler Meat Turkey Meat

    Conversion Rate 1 1

    HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13

    Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14

    Processed and Salted: 1602.32,

    0210.99

    Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26,

    0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35

    Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36

    Processed: 1602.31

    Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded.

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    Assumptions

    BSE: Forecast assumes a continuation of trade policies due to BSE (bovine spongiformencephalopathy) currently in place by U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of October 9, 2009.

    Other Diseases (AI, H1N1, FMD): Forecast reflects policies currently in place as a result ofoutbreaks as of October 9, 2009.

    Technical Notes

    CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless

    otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal afterslaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the

    meat product exported.

    FAS Reports from Overseas Offices

    The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submittedsince March 2009 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be

    obtained on FAS Online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp .

    PSD Online

    The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this

    system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be

    reached through http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

    Additional Resources

    Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at:

    http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp for additional data and analysis.

    Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/.

    Future Releases and Contact Information

    Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp to view archived and future releasesof Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. The next release of this circular will be in

    April 2010.

    Questions may be directed to the following staff:

    Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Cattle, Beef, Poultry (Broiler,

    Turkey and Other Poultry

    products), Other animals and

    meat (horse, sheep, etc), Animal

    by products (rendered products,

    hides and skins)

    Lesley Taulman (202) 720-2781 [email protected] Swine and Pork

    http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asphttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asphttp://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.aspmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asphttp://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asphttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp