1

The Future of Energy Policy in Japan and Bulgaria: what can we learn

from the Japanese experience in terms of energy security, diversification of

energy supply, RES1 and energy efficiency?

I. SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH/PROJECT PROPOSAL

Purpose of this research proposal is the elaboration of a comparative approach which aims to

compare systematically the common energy policy of Japan and Bulgaria. From the technical

point of view such a comparison appears systematically complex and tricky. The field of our

interest’s covers the energy mix (nuclear energy, gas/shale gas2/conventional/LNG, coal and

RES) based on economic and environmental aspects. Both states are facing to some extent the

same problems which can be summed up as an energy dependence on energy resources in

order to maintain a sustainable and competitive economy. However, we have observed in our

analysis two different approaches how energy shortages could be tackled effectively.

The energy sector, however, plays a key and crucial role in the Bulgarian and Japanese

economy. It is responsible in both countries for enormous state and private financial and

human assets. Energy resources amount to 20% of Bulgarian imports and 15% of the

country’s exports. The energy sector in Bulgaria is dominated by heavily regulated state-

owned and private monopolies, thus providing a favorable environment for a lack of

transparency, pervasive private political and economic vested interests, fraud, corruption,

overinvestment and under-servicing, and disregard of state and consumer interests3. The

consequences of bad governance are enhanced by a lack of clear strategic and legal

framework. Bulgaria’s EU membership, and the increasing role of the European Commission

in forming a common energy policy based on market liberalization, energy efficiency and

RES, creates the opportunity for adopting better governance practices and opening up of the

Bulgarian energy sector4.

A key objective of our research idea is to improve the energy sector governance for a

transparent and sustainable economic development and to transfer furthermore Japan´s

experience in adjusting energy standards, procedures, techniques and measures which are

1 Renewables, i.e. renewable energy.

2 The Bulgarian government had opted for an indefinite moratorium and plays the role of a

game changer. This approach represents a corporatist model of technology assessment and

has to consider opaque and obscure social actors and political lobby groups and therefore

cannot recognize the new issues and movements of the shale gas Revolution. 3 EUCERS Report on Energy Security, King’s College Center London 2012.

4 Ibid.

2

applied nowadays in order to prevent the waste of energy resources in Bulgaria, to speed up

the education process of energy- conscious society and to improve the energy efficiency

which has been benchmark in Japan’s energy policy over the recent years.5 By analyzing the

Japanese energy approach similarities and recommendations for a new energy policy in

Bulgaria should be made in order to diminish the dependence on outer and unpredictable

energy supply which had happened in January/February 2009 as a result of the Russian-

Ukrainian- tensions and disputes over the gas supply towards Eastern Europe.

Following the two oil shocks in the 1970s, Japan has diversified its energy supply and has

simultaneously increased the use of nuclear energy, natural gas and coal, as well as the

promotion of energy efficiency and conservation. Despite these improvements towards energy

independence, oil still accounts for about 50% of Japan’s primary energy supply, and nearly

90% of imported oil comes from the politically unstable Middle East. Additionally, proposals

for importing electricity from neighboring countries do not seem appropriate because Japan is

an island nation. In addition, there is an urgent need for global warming countermeasures such

as reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from the use of energy6. To ensure Japan’s stable

electricity supply, it is essential to establish an optimal combination of power sources that can

concurrently deliver energy security, economic efficiency, and environmental conservation,

while placing top priority on safety7. Concerning Japan’s energy policy and the Fukushima

accident, the Japanese Government will establish a Japanese agenda of the optimal

combination of power sources, based on detailed studies on the cost of the nuclear fuel cycle

and the amount of renewable energy that can be introduced nationwide by trying to

implement safety measures for nuclear power generation8.

Transfer of Japan experience in adjusting energy standards, procedures and practices to the

standards of energy efficient society, will help Bulgarian institutions and organizations to

improve their own standards, procedures and practices, and become more prepared for the

upcoming, future challenges in the new energy age.

II. OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT

5 Center for the Study of Democracy 2012.

6 Basic Energy Plan of Japan 2010, The Strategic Energy Plan of Japan 2010

7 FEPC, The Federalization of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Information Plaza of

Electricity, http://www.fepc.or.jp/english/energy_electricity/index.html.

8 Ibid. FEPC.

3

1. To present national energy security policies in both countries (Japan and Bulgaria) in the

context of the regional and Euro-Atlantic perspective, respectively of the SEE (South Eastern

European) countries.

2. To present and analyze the various aspects and challenges to energy security - energy

supply, diversification, cost-effective approaches to critical energy infrastructure, effect of

nuclear energy on economic development, impact of economic liberalization on energy

development.

3. To prepare a framework for regional dialogue in the implementation of policies, strategies,

programs and projects on energy security.

4. To create more reliable links among Bulgarian and Japanese energy companies and

especially to convince Japanese business enterprises to invest in the Bulgarian energy

market.9 Japanese companies are showing tremendous interest in investing in the new energy

project “Green Bulgaria” and the Bulgarian authorities are well- advised to not waste time and

getting closer with their Japanese partners.10

5. To create competitive profitability also by means of further development of regulatory

Framework and political environment.

6. To convince the business and corporate enterprises of the need of transforming and

reforming basic patterns of its energy production and consumption in order to tackle the rising

energy prices.

7. To create an Unbundling and Liberalization of the energy market with regard to the

centralized nuclear state monopoly especially in Bulgaria.

8. The household and private consumers should take their responsibility in the process of

adopting a more environment- friendly consumption behavior by being ready to accept higher

prices but also demanding higher transparency.

9 Toshiba declared its desire to build a new photovoltaic energy park in Bulgaria but due to

slow- going implementation of the Bulgarian regulatory legislation framework the process has

been temporary stopped. 10

Keynote of the Bulgarian Minister of Economy and Industry Mr. Delyan Dobrev and the

Japanese Senior vice Minister Mr. Ryuji Yamane in Sofia, 04.05.2012.

4

III. FRAMEORK FOR REGIONAL DIALOGUE ON ENERGY SECURITY

ISSUES RELATED TO REGIONAL COOPEARTION ISSUES IN ASIA

(Japan) AND SEE (Bulgaria)

1. Major common interests:

– Providing energy resources for the economic development of the national economies;

– Energy efficiency

– Using environmentally friendly approaches

– Guaranteeing security of critical infrastructure in the energy complex

– Prevention of technology and man-made risks.

2. Major areas generating conflicts of interest / between the nation states:

– Diversification of energy resources

– Development of nuclear capacities

– Trans-border environment impacts

– State regulation and market parameters of energy resource.

2. Major areas for regional dialogue:

– Balance of diversification of resources

– Development of technologies for energy efficiency

– Liberalization of the energy market

IV. ENERGY SECURITY AND ENERGY GOVERNANCE IN BULGARIA

The governance of Bulgaria’s energy sector is confronted with a number of problems which

are of a technical, legal, and institutional nature. Recent audits of the implementation of large

energy infrastructure projects have revealed some serious governance issues11

:

A lack of coherent energy strategy with clear priorities;

11

Center for the Study of Democracy, Round Table: Energy Policy of Russia and Bulgaria,

17/05/2012.

5

Apparent conflicts of interest at the highest political level, leading to acquisitions of

bribery;

Poor management of state assets;

An absence of adequate independent oversight and numerous monopolistic abuses at

the consumers’ expense12

;

Politically motivated privatization of assets and uncontrolled access of questionable

capital to the energy sector13

.

A lack of political accountability towards the decision- makers14

The dynamic of the international environment and especially the debate which has been

recently discussed within the EU, US and Japan puts additional pressure on the national

energy charter and requires careful planning and public consensus in deciding future priorities

for the sector.15

The analysis of existing energy strategies offers some reflections and

persistent insufficiencies of strategic planning concerning the Bulgarian energy sector:

A mismatch between the government’s actions and the strategic framework, given that the

majority of the Bulgarian government’s decisions over the last decade have been taken

without proper strategic justification16

;

Signs that public policies have been captured by private interests – for example, the

predominance of projects that steer substantial funds to a limited number of private

undertakings, e.g. constructing large generating capacities, instead of more promising

solutions, e.g. stimulating energy efficiency;

The absence of financial justification of pledged goals, leading to numerous and overly

optimistic priorities and objectives. The latter allows for broad discretion in government

policy making and, effectively, renders strategic planning meaningless;

The lack of a good governance framework for the implementation of the energy strategy17

,

with exact deadlines, clear responsibilities of institutions, and indicators for the assessment

of results18

.

12

Ibid, CSD 2012. 13

CSD, Energy Security and Energy Governance 2011.

14

Conference on Energy Security, 21/06/2102, Sofia, Bulgaria. 15

Econo Monitor, RGE Analysis and IHS Cera Market Briefing 04/2012. 16

Ibid.

6

V. PROJECT ACTIVITIES AND LEVEL OF THE PROJECT STRUCTURE

/FEASIBILITY STUDY/

The project consists of six phases of development which are subdivided as follows:

Project Initiation - Preparation and planning of the research which includes activities

such as desk research, literature research, contacting energy scientists and specialists

from institutes, universities, government officials and NGO representatives in Japan,

and interview building. We would try to establish a contact with Mr. Yukio Edano

assuming office as minister of Economy, Trade and Industry in Japan. For now, I have

been in contact with the following research institutes in Japan: Institute for Energy

Economics, Japan (IEEJ), Energy Technology Research Institute (ETRI), Nuclear

Energy Institute (NEI), Washington, DC (USA), Japan Atomic Energy Agency

(JAEA), The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE).

Getting started - Research activities which include meetings and interviews with

selected energy experts/environmentalist and scientists, government officials and

NGO representatives, teachers and professors, visits to relevant institutions, think

tanks and organizations in Japan, interviews with representatives and officials and

obtaining additional documents, publications and scientific papers.

Assess Issues and Set Priorities - Analysis and review of research results and

conclusions, which includes analysis of research results and making conclusions

which will be reviewed for their validity and reliability by the Bulgarian and Japanese

energy experts/scientists/ authorities.

Reporting - Writing a Policy paper and preparation of materials for presentation which

includes writing of final policy paper (first draft), designing workshops and lectures,

preparing power point presentations, writing materials for media and creating an on-

going debate on the energy topic. Putting emphasis on Renewables and Nuclear

Energy, key points on the energy agenda of Japan and Bulgaria

Presentation and Promotion - Presentation and promotion of the policy paper (final

version) and research results which include presentation of policy paper to primary

stakeholders, organization of workshops and lectures, arranging contacts with media

and setting web site presentation.

17

The Bulgarian Energy Holding, the Bulgarian Energy Efficiency Fund, Bulgarian Energy

Efficiency Agency and the Bulgarian Energy Company offer the best example about

overlapping of competences and lack of professionalism in the energy business. 18

EIA Country Analysis Brief Bulgaria 2012.

7

Project monitoring and evaluation, which includes constant monitoring and

evaluation of research design, evaluation of policy paper, evaluation of workshops and

lectures success and evaluation of media presentations.

VI. RISK EVALUATION AND QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

The overall precondition and expectation for this project is the wiliness for the

implementation of the energy education/model of thinking for energy security and energy

efficiency as an integral part of the energy sector reforms and that there is a genuine interest

in the partner countries and communities towards sustainability and profitability regarding

energy matters. The challenges for the near future for both countries Japan and Bulgaria are

related to new legislative requirements after Fukushima (J) and Belene Nuclear Power Plant19

(B), potential loss of possible public opinion for nuclear energy, decision and activities of

neighboring countries such as Russia (Japan) and Turkey (Bulgaria).

The major risks in the project refer to phases of project research and project implementation,

because most of the problems and uncertainties are placed there. We have identified

frequently mentioned risks that can have an influence on the project`s outcome:

VII. RISKS:

R1. Language barrier, possibility of misunderstanding and information loss with the subjects

of the research; in these cases we will be relying on native Japanese students20

who I am

familiar over the student years with.

R2. Existence of very important documents, publications and scientific papers only in

Japanese;

R3. Lack of response from project beneficiaries;

R4. Slow implementation of recommendations from policy paper`s output;

R5. Insufficient interest of authorities for implementation of contemporary energy

development standards due to insufficient financial power or lack of experience and

knowledge;

19Bulgaria Quits Belene Nuclear Power Plant Project, in:

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=137961 (20.09.2012).

20

Kyoko Ochi from The University of Tokyo (TODAI) will be assisting me in my energy

Endeavour.

8

R6. Failure of the local stakeholders to invest time/financial aid and availability for the

process; the final output of the project cannot be accepted/evaluated due to either financial

limitation or organizational incompetence (bribery and disinterest in the Bulgarian case)

VIII. RISK MITIGATION MEASURES

R1. To engage students of linguistics who can translate documents and other research papers

which are in Japanese; The Institute for Translation Studies in Vienna will support the project

by engaging Austrian students which are fluent in Japanese. The documents translation will

be conducted into German which I will be using as Austrian/German- educated person;

R2. To use existing contacts with Japanese educational institutes, research institutes such as

JAEA21

; ISEP22

; EUCERS; Tokai R&D Center etc. , think tanks, NGOs and establish good

communication with Japan energy experts/scientists/research- driven persons who can

provide contacts with relevant institutions and organizations;

R3. In case of lack of response of project beneficiaries, we are going to undertake awareness

in raising energy activities on energy topics that will be followed by providing relevant

campaigns for different stakeholders;

R4. To create media campaign, this will give the utmost emphasis on project’s

recommendations and workshops;

R5. Potential failure of stakeholders to invest time and availability for the process will be

mitigated through a well conducted inception phase of the project where local stakeholders

will be clearly informed about the follow up activities that are expected to serve as a kind of a

"driving force" for the whole process;

R6. Focus on value- free research; no ideological and political biases; interaction between

facts on the ground and comparative methods.

IX. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This kind of project requires participative methods and techniques in order to claim accuracy

at the scientific level. In order to accomplish primary goal and objectives of the project,

following research methods and techniques are used: desk research, literature research, semi-

structured interview and observation. The desk research is necessary to investigate scientific

21

Japan Atomic Energy Agency 22

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policy in Japan

9

papers, publications and documents related to energy security standards and procedures

published and printed from scientist/experts and government officials in Japan. A semi-

structured interview, which is a technique of participative methods, will be applied in the part

of the study which is related to relevant stakeholders’ attitudes and assessments. The semi-

structured interviews are aimed to provide us with opinions and experiences of energy

scientists/experts, government officials and NGO representatives related to energy topics and

implementation of energy- related issues into the energy charter. Semi-structured interviews

for stakeholders will be developed in few models, according to the type of stakeholders. A

total number of interviews predicted are up to 30 respondents, equally distributed among the

following groups of stakeholders: representatives of central government and relevant

Ministries of Energy, Trade and Industry/Ministry of Environment in case we are debating on

shale gas issues and hydraulic fracturing, local governments, NGOs and research

institutes/universities and think tanks such as ISEP Japan (Institute for Sustainable Energy

Policies).

The observation technique is chosen to provide on the spot insight in practices necessary to

meet energy standards and techniques at local self-governance, universities, research

institutes, state-and- private owned energy companies and NGOs. Additionally to this, the

observation technique will provide us with information and examples about labeling of energy

policies in Japan.

The researcher will also review the policy, legal and administrative framework for

participation through compiling existing data and comparing them with new findings. The

obtained results will be interpreted together with the results of the so called secondary, “desk”

– normative approach. The summing up assessments - will synthesize and ‘translate’ the

gained information into a policy paper which will be presented at special organized events on

behalf of the Japan Foundation as a main contributor.

X. PROJECT EVALUATION

The monitoring and evaluation of this project is more qualitative in nature, because primarily

goal of the project refers to research of experiences and practices in providing targeted

information about the energy mix (nuclear, gas, coal, Renewables), about the energy supply,

about the diversification of energy resources, about the geopolitical focus on energy assets

10

(pipeline which could connect Japan- Russia)23

and not forgetting also the energy efficiency.

The major output of the project would be the elaboration of policy paper whose real value lies

in reliability and validity of recommendations it provides. In order to accomplish reliability

and validity of affirmative policy paper leading energy experts/scientists/chief diplomats from

Japan and Bulgaria (Prof. Atanas Tassev, PhD Atanas Georgiev, Mr. Stefan Gamizov24

) will

be asked to review the research conclusions and the quality of proposed recommendations in

the agenda paper. Beside the evaluation of policy paper other project outputs will be evaluated

through assessment of:

1. Information level of primary stakeholders;

2. Number of provided workshops and lectures;

3. Number of participants in workshops and lectures;

4. Participants’ opinion about usefulness of provided material;

5. Implementation of recommended measures from policy paper;

6. Overall time in media devoted to results of the project;

7. Level of interest for results of research and policy paper from experts, scientists and

officials in Japan and Bulgaria.

XI. NUCLEAR ENERGY: MID- LONG- TERM GOALS OF THE RESEARCH

PROJECT

Bulgaria as EU member state rests on current EU Law and must be willing to oblige the

European energy regulations. Bulgaria commits herself to establish and maintain a national

legislative, regulatory and organizational framework regulation and nuclear safety of nuclear

installations.25

Furthermore, Bulgaria binds herself to establish and maintain a competent

regulatory authority of nuclear safety, and to ensure fulfillment of its obligations. One of the

key issues regarding nuclear safety and imposed by the European Energy concerns the nuclear

plants- stress tests. In this case Bulgaria could gain an outstanding experience delivered by the

23

Japan Pipeline Development and Operation Inc. This pipeline would be connecting

Sakhalin with Hokkaido.

www.jpdo.co.jp/ehistory.html. (2.October 2011) 24

Stefan Gamizov created the first ever energy project in Bulgaria without Russia’s technical

or lobbyist participation. It concerns the reconstruction and rehabilitation of the old TPP

Maritza Iztok 2. (http://www.thefullwiki.org/Stefan_Gamizov),15.09.2012. 25

Council Directive 2009/71 EURATOM on safety of nuclear installations.

11

Japanese nuclear knowledge on issues with regard to the operation processes of nuclear

plants.

The essence of transferring the Japanese know- how would be a set of comparative criteria

drawn up in the light of possible accidents or terror attacks and applied not only for the

Bulgarian nuclear power plant Kozhloduj but also for 143 reactors in 14 member states of the

EU;

The main aim of such stress test cooperation assess whether the safety margins used in the

licensing of nuclear power plants are sufficient to cover the extreme unexpected such as

natural disasters, man- made failures and actions;26

The expected results which the Bulgarian

state could be obtaining through its partnership with the Japanese state on nuclear energy will

be the creation of a uniform nuclear safety standards to regulate operational safety of nuclear

energy; Self- assessments: operator of nuclear power plants describe the response of nuclear

power plant safety when facing a set of extreme situations; National Reports (in Bulgarian

and Japanese): National regulators evaluate the comprehensiveness, objectivity and

feasibility of assessments and prepare stress test reports; Peer reviews: in order to ensure the

objectivity, peer reviews of the national reports are conducted by peer review teams

composed of Bulgarian/Japanese nuclear energy experts and national regulators.

(1) Factors, crucial for nuclear energy development in Japan and Bulgaria: Common

Features

Economical situation of the state: only rapidly developing countries can afford it;

Increasing demand for electricity and obstacles to develop or rely on other energy

resources;

Experience in nuclear energy sector which both countries shares;

Supranational norms, requirements and obligations;

Strive for “energy security”;

Public attitude (the debate over shale gas issues in Bulgaria and the future of nuclear

energy in Japan and lately also in Bulgaria);

Costs of electricity in new NPPs is higher than in old NPPs and forecasted market

prices;

Construction usually lasts twice as long as forecasted, costs increase significantly

(BELENE/Bulgaria);

26

Air plane crashes and explosions close to nuclear power plants, damaging effects from

terrorist attacks, etc.

12

Financial risks are high, pay off is long, banks hesitate to invest (BELENE/Bulgaria);

Increase of electricity demand in developed countries is not so high as expected;

Attractiveness of NPPs is falling due to the rapid development of renewable energy

sources;

Shale gas and LNG infrastructure development make natural gas the most important

source of energy (Japan- US- cooperation); The Japanese company Mitshubishi is

working together with other Japanese and Canadian companies in an enlarged joint-

venture in British Columbia/Canada exploring shale gas fields;

Problem of nuclear waste storage;

Huge damage due to possible incidents.

(2) Excursus: Growing interest in electric vehicles - why? Japan goes electric. A lesson

from Japan

Growing awareness of CO2 emissions

Increasingly volatile oil prices (national security concerns)

Advances in lithium-ion battery technology

Challenges & concerns with other transport fuel alternatives (esp. biofuels, diesel, and

hydrogen)

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

High- quality grid operations for high security of supply

Grid extension for RES and market integration

Japanese experience has been transferred into Bulgarian energy agenda in order to

diminish the energy vulnerability of Bulgarian energy efficiency27

Chart 1: Structural Matrix of similarities and difference related to Energy Priorities of both

countries under the banner of a comparative approach28

:

Bulgaria Japan

27

Bulgarian Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Credit Line (BEERECL),

http://beerecl.com/cms/?q=en 28

Self- Projections; another source: 50Hertz Presentation on a Energy Forom 2012 in Telc,

presented by Mr. Michael Kranhold Head of Corporate Strategy/Cooperation 50Hertz

Transmission.

13

No nuclear phase out but standstill

due to restriction in the financial

framework;

Political controversy amongst Left

and Right- Parties and no consensus

whether the nuclear plant in BELENE

is needed;

Regional competition resulting from

the nuclear ambition of countries like

Turkey

Referendum in Bulgaria next year

should get the final word whether

Sofia is in need of the nuclear plant

Transparent communication of costs

is essential. People want to know:

how much does the grid construction

cost (1) and who will pay the bill (2)?

Paradigm shift after Fukushima and

on- going debate regarding nuclear

energy;

New legislative requirements after

Fukushima accident;

Potential loss of positive public

opinion for nuclear energy?

Nuclear energy will not disappear,

BUT: Europe will debate, US have to

choose, JAPAN WILL HESITATE

AND BALANCE PROS AND

CONS, Russia, China and Korea will

build.

Security of Supply is essential;

Maintaining a High Level of Security

of Supply;

Promotion of new energy storage

The costumer is meanwhile demoted

to a simple client trapped in a lock- in

effect with any chance to escape the

energy blackmail

Promotion of new energy storage

High Efficiency also for the benefit of

the Japanese costumer

Adequate inclusion with the highest

priority level of the EU 20-20-20

target in the national energy strategy

and energy policies

Safe energy, promote energy

efficiency

Encourage the spread of electric cars

Make the petrol- powered vehicles

more efficient (MITSUBISHI

iMIEV)

Promote less polluting forms of

electric generation

Advance of network expansion

Development of Competition in the

Japan was in 2011 the 5th

biggest

photovoltaic market in the world with

14

Market

Incentive Regulation to Foster

Sustainable Development

newly grid connected capacity 1100

MWp/a29

Creating a Level Playing Field in

Bulgaria

Development of the Transmission

Grid to Integrate RES

Modern conventional power stations

as a new bridge technology

Energy saving technologies;

Strong corporate culture within the

Japanese society characterized by

competence, commitment, trustful

cooperation and safety wariness;

National Plan for the Achievement of

RES targets

RES are limited, they have technical

limits;

Speed up of RES technologies

RES are limited, they have technical

limits;

Energy sector which is marked by

fraud, nepotism and political

corruption

The BG government must enforce all

Community legislation into an

effective action, getting dirty money

and big lobbyist keen on state

preferences out of the way30

Guarantee energy supplies which will be:

Reliable

Safe (safe production resources)

Friendly to the environment

For an acceptable price

Supplying continuously even in crisis

situations

Shale gas debate blocked, possible

referendum next year on the way to

be implemented, environmental

objections due to lack of proper

explanations of the facts

Shale gas and LNG infrastructure

development will make natural gas

the most importance source of

energy.

Reducing dependence on oil and coal,

especially from unstable regions like

the Middle East

29

Source: EPIA Market Report 2011 30

The 12th CSD Policy Brief On Green Energy in Bulgaria, 2012.

15

Chart 2: equally ranking commonalities between Japan and Bulgaria regarding the Energy

Mix31

PROs CONs

Nuclear Minimal CO2

emissions

Stability of fuel

supply

Low Cost of

Electricity

Long Construction

Period

High Investment

Politically sensitive

issue

Coal The only fuel that is

available in more or

less sufficient amount

(Bulgaria), Japan- not

the case

Existing international

market with black

and lignite coal,

import possible, high

transportation costs

High CO2 emissions

CCS still not

commercially

available

CO2 price of

allowances

Gas High efficiency

(CCGT)

Flexible source

Relatively short

High Gas Prices

Gas Prices are

unstable and difficult

to predict in long

31

Self- Images, Souce: CEZ (České Energetické Závody) Presentation by Mr. Petr Zavodsky,

August 2012, Temelin/ Czech Republic.

16

construction period

and low investment

cost

term

Total dependence on

import and easy to be

blackmailed

Renewables (RES) No CO2 emissions

Environmentally

friendly

Political support

Limited possibilities,

strongly dependant on

local conditions

Risk for grid stability

Expensive

(depending on

subsidies in EU)

ANNEX

Project Activities – Gantt chart (3)

Project Activities

Period – two months

I II II IV V

1. Desk research of scientific papers, publications and documents.

2. Research planning and interview building, detailed literature research

3. Study trip to Japan and taking interviews from selected experts-

energy specialists, government and local authorities’ officials as well

as NGO representatives. Finding additional material not available in

Bulgaria.

4. Contacting energy experts, government officials and NGO

representatives in Japan in order to convince them to provide reliable

information. Start conducting the normative- based research.

5. Visiting relevant ministries and research institutes (Energy and

Trade), local authorities, universities, NGOs etc. in Japan, with

purpose to take interviews and observe energy procedures and

practices. Gathering as much as possible information related to

energy issues: RES, nuclear, LNG, shale gas.

6. Meeting local energy experts who are dealing with research topics on

Energy Security. Phone arrangement with them will be discussed in

17

advance. Offering them a questionnaire on energy matters:

diversification and supply of energy resources.

7. Analysis of the research results and conclusions. Evaluation of the

question paper. Direct contact with the interviewees in case of

ambiguities.

8. Reviewing and revision of the research results and conclusions from

Japan experts. Discussing hairy issues with my supervisor/mentor.

Asking him for additional feedback in order to complete successfully

the empirical evaluation of the provided results.

9. Meeting with Japanese and Bulgarian energy experts (Ministry of

Energy and Trade, Ministry of Environment, research institutes and

universities) for reviewing and revision of research results and

conclusions. Requesting for a gedankenexperiment and editing the

draft.

10. Writing a policy paper and creating a plethora of materials for

workshops, lectures and media. Debating on the paper version once

again with leading energy experts from Japan and Bulgarian and

organizing if possible Skype- conferences in order to overcome

unclear points and “hot potato”- issues.

11. Contacting media in both countries (printed, radio, online and TV)

and offering them written and video materials; organizing a public

debate within the research institute which I am working with.

12. Presentation and promotion of policy paper and requesting

publishing in a well- known energy magazine; presenting the policy

paper to the EU authorities from http://www.energy.eu/ and

http://www.reeep.org/(RenewableEnergy&EnergyEfficiencyPartners

hip)

13. Organization of workshops and consulting different opinions;

supporting the empirical results with a theoretical framework.

14. Summing and evaluation of the project, publishing and informing the

Japan Foundation about the field research, presenting Japan

Foundation an extensive report outlining my research activity in

Japan since day one after my arrival in Japan; Elaborating on

Japanese Energy Compendium involving all best practices from

18

Japan which can be implemented in the Bulgarian energy debate.

Chart 4: Summary of the research methods

Research Subjects Research Topics Research Methods

1. Japanese energy

experts and scientists

in the field of energy

security;

2. Government officials

in Japan (Ministry of

Economy, Trade and

Industry, Ministry of

Energy Policy);

3. Japan officials from

the local self-

governance and

educational

institutions/universitie

s/research institutes

1. Energy Supply and

Security in Japan;

2. Diversification of Energy

Supplies in Japan

3. Maintenance of

Sustainable Energy Policy

4. Decreasing the dependence

on fossil fuels; reducing

dependency on other

countries

o Semi-structured

interview

o Evaluating sources of

information

o Separating fact from

opinion!

o Inter- disciplinary

Method

1. Japanese government

officials

2. Energy Specialists:

o Specialists with

academic

background

o Specialists with

practical

experience

3. Lobby Groups

1. Smart- grids and

CCS- Technology

2. Nuclear Power and its

impact on the

Japanese economy

3. The Japanese Energy

Mix and the future of

RES and LNG

4. The new geopolitical

implications: Japan

o Semi-structured

interview

o Quantative

Method/Statistical

Method: does not

suffer from

subjectivity

(questionnaires)

o Observation

o Field study Method-

19

4. NGO Represenatives

5. Enviromentalists

and Russia: partner in

need32

?

in order to acquire

firsthand knowledge

o Interview Method

1. Documents, publications

and research papers

related to energy studies,

energy security, energy

supply and RES.

2. Special focus on the on-

going nuclear energy

debate in Japan and

Bulgaria

1. Re- Thinking Japan`s and

Bulgaria’s Energy System

(Mapping out challenges

of the future)

2. Impact on public

awareness concerning

RES, shale gas and

nuclear energy

3. Transition within the

energy mixtute

4. Japan as role model for

Bulgarian in terms of

solid engineering

solutions to highly

sensitive and demanding

energy problems.

o Desk research

o Qualitative Method

o Library Method

o Case Study Method

related to nuclear

energy safety

XII. CONCLUSION:

This research strives to understand the relationship between long term political-economic-

perceptional factors and current policy outcomes and is aimed at providing a new perspective

for the understanding of Japan’s and Bulgaria’s energy policy. Understanding the particular

constraints Japan and Bulgaria have faced while seeking to improve energy security over the

years will provide useful tools and perspectives for policy makers. This research will offer

short and long term solutions, including suggestions regarding new primary domestic and

international response mechanisms, institutional planning and education, and social consensus

building in order to achieve social responsibility for the use of energy. Inherent in the

proposed research, therefore, are crucial policy implications.

32 Russia- Japanese Joint Venture Gas- Pipeline- Project beneath the Sea of Japan which will

link Sakhalin and Hokkaido, A statement of The Japanese International Institute for Policy

Studies (IIPS) and Konrad- Adenauer- Foundation (KAF), October 2011, Tokio.

20

The main goal of this research is to decipher and analyze Japan’s energy policy, and its

development and outcomes, focusing on evaluation of energy security and supply in Japan

through to the present. What makes this research ambitious in its undertaking is the risky

assumption that energy agendas of two completely different and heterogenic in their socio-

political and economic structure, states such as Japan and Bulgaria could be compared.

Understanding the reasons for Japan’s technological advance and sensibility on energy

security will help provide useful tools and perspectives for Bulgarian policy makers, present

and future. The analysis is based on the primary assertion that Bulgarian governments has

largely failed over the years (since 1980) to achieve ‘energy security’. The proposed research

therefore aims to answer a major question regarding Bulgaria’s energy policy for achieving

energy security, especially after having studied the Japanese model regarding energy security

topics.