forensic intelligence: deregulation or return to the roots of forensic science?

1

Forensic Intelligence: Deregulation or Return to the Roots of Forensic

Science?

Accepted for the special issue of the Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences on forensic

intelligence.

Olivier Ribaux1, Frank Crispino2, Claude Roux3

1 Ecole des Sciences Criminelles, University of Lausanne, CH-‐1015 Lausanne, Switzerland, [email protected] 2 Département Chimie, biochimie et physique, Université du Québec à Trois-‐Rivières, Canada, [email protected] 3 Centre for Forensic Science, University of Technology, Sydney, Broadway NSW 2007, Australia, [email protected]

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of forensic intelligence through historical, operational

and academic considerations. While forensic intelligence is thriving through new

traceability of human activities, theoretical developments in policing and innovative

technologies, it should mainly be seen as an opportunity for forensic science to

contribute to make policing more ‘scientific’ in the broad sense. This paper supports the

development of a modern framework to holistically use the information conveyed by

forensic case data to inform policing processes, support decision making and ensure

transparency. It is argued that the scientific information, the trace, has to be privileged,

rather than rejected from current debates, despite the potential fears prompted by the

misinterpretation of the term ‘intelligence’. Ultimately, forensic intelligence enables the

emergence of a modern conception of forensic science.

Introduction

Forensic intelligence brings challenges to the traditional forensic science laboratory

already under pressure. This is particularly so for those who are dedicated to gain

independence, better normalise and control their procedures, and provide high quality

and impartial services focussed on the Court. However, errors are still detected,

occasionally related to high profile cases. They inevitably cause expectations from the

public on reinforcing procedures to prevent errors or detect them before leading to

injustice and ultimately, a wrongful conviction. Unfortunately, as Rosenthal observed, ‘It

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costs something to reduce errors, and it costs more and more to get rid of each error as

there are fewer of them left’ (Rosenthal 1978). End users are also impacted by that same

system that does not look to invest more for the service. In short, it means that the

laboratory is in a context of high pressure and asked to do more with fewer resources; it

is approaching a breakpoint. This uncomfortable position is compounded by a series of

studies that disseminate pervasive doubts upon the global effectiveness of forensic

science (Brodeur 2010; Strom and Hickman 2010; White et al. 2011).

In fact, in the current paradigm, it might be that forensic science plays a tiny role in the

whole process. Bob Milne (2012: 4) considers: ‘80% to 90% of forensic materials

recovered never make their way into a forensic laboratory’. Milne continues by asking

‘what are the ways that we can utilise this material to solve cases?’

It is in this context that this thing called ‘forensic intelligence’ enters into consideration.

At first glance, it may be interpreted as demanding once again new efforts for the lab,

without any guarantee to find new customers, open new profitable markets, and

improve its position.

This overview takes a conversely optimistic view. It considers forensic intelligence as an

opportunity to propose a new ambitious and enlarged project for forensic science by

contributing to make policing more ‘scientific’ in the broad sense.

Actually, those who have kept close contacts with investigation despite the distancing of

the laboratory during the last decade might not see intelligence as a genuine new

development. They observe only the expression of an actual practice more overt in the

scientific literature. However, what has changed is the emergence of a more proactive

style of policing, as well as a broad variety of new ways to trace human activities. This

kind of movement dramatically impacts forensic science, how it is perceived and what it

is expected from it. There is a persuasive incentive to make an effort to better express

how forensic science relates to policing through forensic intelligence.

Old wine in new bottles?

At its inception, forensic science was holistically combining all the accessible trace types,

remnant of litigious activities, in order to provide accurate, timely and relevant

information that supported responses to crime problems.

Indeed, pioneers in forensic science worked with a fully polyvalent vision of the trace

that was supposed to support the global reconstruction of the case. However, Edmond

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Locard, the French criminalist, was soon to regret a move towards specialisation, at a

time when fingerprint identification was dominating, similarly as DNA does today: ‘Fingerprints are wonderful. I would say (…) it is privileged evidence. But, beyond, one

can find prints of a variety of species: tooth print, nails, traces from the entire body, hair,

dusts. Dust analysis is an infinite, unlimited resource. One can exactly know what the

man did’ 1(Locard 1955: 2)

This quote has obviously to be interpreted in its historical context, and within an

evolving complex environment that articulates criminology, justice, and forensic science

divergently through time and across countries (Kaminsky 1995). But Locard’s argument

is timeless and strategic. If one single trace attracts all the attention, offenders would

know how to adapt their behaviour to suit. However, they would have difficulties to

consciously control all the ‘traceogenic’ 2 aspects influencing the generation of traces of

their movements within the environment imposed by typical criminal situations.

Forensic intelligence has modernised this argument by integrating new traceability of

human activities in virtual, numerical and economical worlds. This adds complexity to a

point where offenders cannot know and manage all the possibilities of tracing their

movements: it is not rare that the GPS integrated in an electronic device localises the

stolen good or that thieves take a pictures of themselves with the stolen smart phone

that is automatically sent to the victim (and the police) through the cloud!

This notion prevailed in the US during the first part of the 20th century, when the

charismatic chief of the police of Berkeley, August Vollmer, managed to reform the

police system (Vollmer and Schneider 1917; Vollmer 1930; Regional Oral History Office

1972, 1983). In line with the development of the first laboratory for the police, the

school of criminology at University of Berkley emerged from the association of Vollmer

with Paul Leland Kirk, the founder of Criminalistics, in 1950.

However, after a chaotic and politically agitated period, the school of criminology was

closed in 1975, following the transfer of criminalistics to a scientific department,

resulting in institutional distance from criminology. These events were the forerunner of

1 C’est magnifique les empreintes digitales. Je dirais (…) que c’est une preuve privilégiée. Mais en dehors de ça, on peut trouver des empreintes de toutes espèces de choses : des empreintes de dents, des empreintes d’ongles, des traces du corps tout entier, des cheveux, des poussières. L’analyse des poussières est une ressource infinie, illimitée (…) on peut savoir exactement ce que l’homme a fait’ 2 Prone to leave (physical and chemical) traces.

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the irresistible move towards a fragmented view, often focused on single type of trace

and technique, which prevails in some laboratories and in most universities today.

The withdrawal of forensic science

The strong and general stream towards specialisation broke the already weak links

between forensic science and the other fields that studied crime and led to draw

increasingly strict distinctions between these fields. The resulting effect is the

contemporary view of laboratories that offer services mostly dedicated to the Court

(Kirk 1947, 1963a, 1963b; Holstrom 1972; MacCormick 1983).

John DeHaan, reflected on these evolutions in the wake of the Californian disaster

(DeHaan 2008). He rightly identified that the pioneer generalists of the 40s, 50s and 60s

had been progressively replaced by the 90s generation of forensic scientists focusing on

a specialty, and not appreciating ‘the true role they play’. In the same address, he

commemorated another great forensic intelligence scientist, Stuart Kind. Kind’s book,

entitled ‘the Scientific Investigation of Crime’, was published in 1987 (Kind 1987). It is

one of the rare publications of this period that fully integrates forensic case data into the

whole set of information treated in the course of crime investigation. Kind proposes

many models, and expresses in his book the idea that good chemists or biologists cannot

be de facto good support to the investigation if they do not understand their constraints

and their precise objectives or underestimate the logical structure of crime

investigation. In short, they bring little value to the investigation if they know nothing

about the problem they are supposed to help solve.

As a sign of the influence of the current dominant conception of forensic science, Kind is

almost never cited in the forensic literature, but is much more recognised as the initiator

of geographical profiling through his seminal contribution to the Yorkshire Ripper

investigation (Rossmo 1999).

DNA then submerged the holistic perspective in a single trace view of solving cases,

tending to ‘squeeze others out’ (Robertson 2012: 87). The premises of forensic

intelligence were diluted with this movement: ‘We appear to have relegated the framing of questions to non-scientifically educated

detectives leaving criminalists with technician functions and fancy hardware, operating in a

reactive mode, doing only what is asked of them. This has certainly been the trend. When

we take a good look at this model, to which we seem to have grown accustomed, does it

make any sense? If the laboratory is set up on the clinical model and crime scenes are

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handled exclusively by non-scientists, there is no problem-solving scientist on the "front

end’ (De Forest 1999: 198)

This stream has continued to progress in a changing economical environment that drove

the emergence of private laboratories offering mostly technical services (Lawless 2010;

Lawless 2011).

This model largely dominated the scientific literature by focusing both on the

development of more rapid, sensitive, transportable and cheaper techniques, together

with the development of evaluation frameworks carefully designed for the Court (Cook

et al. 1998b; Cook et al. 1998a). In this context, it seems that there is no more room for a

forensic intelligence approach to crime. This is a fallacy, as it is demonstrated in this

article and other contributions of this special issue.

The silent development of forensic intelligence

Beyond some modern holistic view of forensic science that began at the Berkeley school

(Inman and Rudin 2001), there has been a continued resistance to reconquer the

territory lost by the initial movement, and which is driven by the specialisation process.

It was recognised in the UK that a gap has widened between investigators and scientists

when a Home Office inquiry led by Sir Lawrence Byford into the failure of the Yorkshire

Ripper case (Byford 1981) acknowledged poor use of forensic case data to orient the

investigation (Kind 1987). More than a decade later, concrete measures led to the

creation of an investigative resource (i.e. National Crime Faculty, 1996) that fully

included the so called ‘Byford’s scientists. These were senior forensic scientists able to

coordinate, promote and ensure the proper use of forensic case data in major inquiries

(Barclay 2009; Tilley and Townsley 2009). Parallels between the investigative and

scientific method in the development programs of Senior Investigative Officers were

then explicitly drawn (Barclay 2009). In 2005, the Parliamentary Select Committee

'Forensic Science on Trial' arrived at the conclusion that ‘the main contribution that

forensic science makes to the criminal justice system is the generation of intelligence to

assist investigations’ (House of Commons 2005: 8).

Simultaneously, unpublished practices were developed and fostered in many other

jurisdictions, particularly where small police organisations co-‐exist with forensic units.

This happened for example in Switzerland, due to its federalist structure and the

relatively small size of police organisations. In such environments, there are numerous

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incentives to adopt a more collective approach between investigators and forensic

scientists. This is confirmed by observations in evaluation studies about the

effectiveness of forensic science: the integration of forensic case data is better when

there is a collaborative approach; that is when close relationships between the different

contributors who jointly solve problems is promoted (Bradbury and Feist 2005;

Adderley et al. 2007; Kelty and Julian 2012; Rossy and Ribaux 2013).

As most of the good practices belong to police organisations, very few seem to be

published in the scientific literature in English. However, there are some signs of a more

general change in the way the articulation between forensic science and crime

investigation can be conceived. For instance, in France, the gap has been filled by

members of the ‘gendarmerie’ who developed the concept of a crime scene coordinator,

a new role, devised in particular to make the best use of information conveyed by

forensic case data during specific investigations (Schuliar 2009). In Germany, the

investigation of serious cases also seems to be much more team based, in integrating

forensic case data (Dern et al. 2009). The framework proposed by Chisum and Turvey

(2011) is another illustration of the same tendency to favour a collective,

interdisciplinary approach. Finally, laboratories themselves tend to develop functions

such as the ‘case manager’ to take advantage of contextual information and protect

scientists from biases (Thompson 2011). However, it is not clear how systematically

and to what extent this function is actually implemented.

Beyond the creation of new organisational settings, some models, methods and enabling

IT systems have begun to emerge. Examples of this are the combined used of forensic

case data (Leary 2002), a framework for understanding the temporal structure of events

(Weyermann and Ribaux 2012) or, more specifically, the extended use of DNA profiles

for investigative and intelligence purposes, when partial profiles or mixtures are

extracted (Bieber et al. 2006; Hicks et al. 2010).

Of course, the concerns about how to more effectively use physical materials may

already seem obsolete when the new traceability of human activities in retrospective or

proactive investigations is considered. A broad variety and quantity of ‘digital’ traces is

now commonly used, such as mobile phone data, geolocalisation, images, internet

interceptions, or traces recovered from other electronic devices. They have already

changed the nature of the contribution of forensic science in the early phase of the

investigative process. The omnipresence of forensic science during crime investigation

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is a fact. However, trained generalists, models, and methods are either not available or

not used appropriately to structure and evaluate the use of forensic case data at all

stages of the process (Robertson 2012; Williams and Weetman 2013).

In this context, it is fair to say that most forensic science efforts are dedicated to

reinforce the last step of the process: the court process. There is an imbalance that

forensic intelligence aims to correct, by providing stronger information processing,

inference and evaluative models for improving the rationality of the approach earlier

than the ultimate phase, and prior to the point where poor decision-‐making is hardly

recoverable. This should obviously include the crime scene as the first step in the

process (Crispino 2008).

Beyond the involvement of forensic science in supporting and reinforcing crime

investigation, Tilley and Ford (1996) pointed towards another question, even more

problematic, about the proactive use of forensic case data in dealing with high volume

crime. They proposed another great incentive for forensic intelligence to find a new

position: the increasing awareness and implementation of proactive models of policing.

Proactive models of policing and their embarrassing questions to forensic sciences

A mosaic of models has developed around the idea of switching from a reactive

approach to policing to a more proactive approach, by better use of the collected

information, analysed to focus strategies, operations and tactics, and support decision-‐

making processes at every level of the organisation. One of the most prominent

approaches was best expressed by Ratcliffe under the unifying term of intelligence-‐led

policing (ILP) (Ratcliffe 2008: 89): ‘Intelligence-Led policing is a business model and managerial philosophy where data

analysis and crime intelligence are pivotal to an objective, decision-making framework

that facilitates crime and problem reduction, disruption and prevention through both

strategic management and effective enforcement strategies that target prolific and serious

offenders’

The interpretation of such models based on a structured approach to security problems

has proliferated (Brodeur 2010), and, even if ILP is now claimed to be the driving model

of many organisations, it remains unclear to what extent it is really the case in actual

practice.

Whatever the differences of conceptions, this movement has started to question the

positioning and function of forensic science.

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How to evaluate efficiency in regard to these models of policing has become a recurrent

point, placing more pressure on forensic science service providers (Bradbury and Feist

2005; Julian et al. 2011; Roux et al. 2014). From a traditional view of forensic science,

the answer seems evident: forensic case data have a great potential for detecting crimes,

and all the efforts of normalisation and standardisation would suggest some consistency

of forensic science process across jurisdictions. Unfortunately, available studies

continually show the contrary: the evaluation of the contribution of forensic science to

crime detection rates in the end-‐to-‐end process, in particular for DNA, demonstrate

systematically small returns in comparison to investment. They also indicate huge

differences in the many decision making points along the process of collecting the trace,

triaging, collating and using databases, and presenting evidence (Burrows and Tarling

2004; Rix 2004; Bradbury and Feist 2005; Adderley et al. 2007; Brodeur 2008;

Schroeder and White 2009; Walsh 2009; Brodeur 2010; Wilson et al. 2010; White et al.

2011; Ludwig and Fraser 2013). In the authors’ opinion, these studies do not show that

forensic science and the use of its related technology (e.g. databases) are ineffective in

policing, but rather that its contribution is poorly understood, formalised and largely

diluted when the focus is only crime detection. This question is increasingly asked in the

literature (Walsh et al. 2004; Bieber 2006; Walsh et al. 2009; Roux et al. 2014). Indeed,

in a proactive style of policing, crime detection is one, but not the only relevant question.

The focus should also be on crime reduction through prevention, disruption, and the

improvement of the feeling of community security. How forensic science actually

contributes to these objectives is far more complex to demonstrate (Burrows and

Tarling 2004; Wilson et al. 2010), and much work on this perspective is still to be done.

This will be difficult to achieve so long as the articulation of forensic science in these

new models of policing remains poorly expressed. This is a crucial issue for forensic

intelligence where there is burgeoning interest and activity.

Forensic intelligence in a proactive style of policing

An elementary task in a proactive style of policing consists of linking disparate pieces of

information in order to obtain a whole picture for repetitive crime problems. Forensic

case data has shown great potential for crime scene linking (Birkett 1989; Anthonioz et

al. 2002; Napier 2002; Walsh et al. 2002; Dujourdy et al. 2003; Braga and Pierce 2004;

Walsh and Buckleton 2004; Walsh et al. 2009; Rossy et al. 2013). However, the

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advantage of this approach has long been masked by the demand for individualising and

directly implicating suspects. The approach to linking crimes has largely ignored the

possible contribution of DNA technologies, (Bennell et al. 2012), and linking crimes

through DNA is still often seen as a side effect of the use of databases but certainly not as

a pillar of an intelligence-‐led strategy (Walsh 2009). This is about to change.

The experience presented by Braga (2008) makes clearer the possibilities of integrating

forensic case data into problem-‐oriented policing. His crime prevention study was

related to a strategy to mitigate violent gun crimes. Through the systematic comparisons

of marks that firearms leave on bullets, different uses of the same gun were identified.

These relationships oriented specific inquiries, and their integration with other

accessible data was a determinant in the detection of a range of serious cases. The links

have mostly been used to delineate the activity of different crime gangs within a city,

and their operational territories. The larger picture allowed preventive operations

towards groups that presented the more serious risks. The immediate detection of an

emerging criminal activity provided a chance for a rapid intervention in order to avoid a

spiralling effect. This study also showed that the police had changed their perception of

the global problem which previously had no visibility. This case is a clear illustration of

the need for a more systematically integrated approach to proactive policing projects,

even at an international level (Gagliardi 2012). This view is supported by Crispino, who

developed the idea and promoted an extended job definition for the crime scene

coordinator to participation in proactive policing (Crispino 2006, 2009; Crispino et al.

2009).

The implementation of the National Intelligence Model in the UK, advocating an

intelligence-‐led approach to policing, has had an impact on the extended use of

information conveyed by traces in some key organisations, such as the Metropolitan

Police in London (Milne 2012). However, it is an ongoing process to properly integrate

forensic case data, as well as influence forensic operations when analysing serial crimes

(Blakey 2002; Mennell and Shaw 2006; Ribaux et al. 2010a; Ribaux et al. 2010b).

When a systematic linking process is operating over a long period, the full potential of

forensic intelligence is clearly demonstrated not only for detecting specific series of

crime, but also in providing a new vision of the structure of organised crime (Morelato et

al. 2014). For instance, such approaches have been systematically implemented to

detect and follow-‐up a variety of crime problems, such as high volume crimes (Rossy et

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al. 2013), illicit drug profiling (Ioset et al. 2005), counterfeit documents (Baechler et al.

2012) and National Security Problems (Johnston 2004).

A new interest from some criminologists

It appears we have come full circle and the link between forensic science and

criminology is somewhat re-‐established. The trace, remnant of a criminal activity, when

detected and recognised conveys the most elementary, transparent, measurable

information of the crime itself (Margot 2011). Studies conducted by Lammers and his

colleague (2012; 2013; 2013) who use DNA linking for investigating questions such as

how long serial offenders escape arrest, consideration about the criminal careers of

offenders (Leary and Pease 2003) or about their mobility (Walsh 2009; Rossy et al.

2013), the analysis of waste water to analyse drug consumption (van Nuijs et al. 2011),

as well as the realisation that there are links to be built between environmental

criminology and crime scene investigation (Ribaux et al. 2010a), are examples of the

criminological flavour of forensic intelligence. This is reinforced by the more integrative

vision suggested by the emerging field of crime science (Pease 2010), as well as a more

comprehensive approach to forensic science (Fraser and Williams 2009) underpinning

the ‘shift from the traditional laboratory to the coal face of policing’ (Technology 2011).

Conclusion

A modern conception of forensic science is emerging through forensic intelligence. It

may be interpreted as old wine in new bottles if we analyse the separation of forensic

science from criminology during the 20th century, followed by a return towards more

integration. However, the new traceability of human activities, theoretical development

in policing, as well as innovative technologies drive this development as these areas

badly need a modern framework to holistically use the information conveyed by forensic

case data to inform policing processes, and support all the variety of decisions to be

made. In the perspective of a bulimic treatment of big data in the society of information,

and its potential weakening of civil liberties, such efforts are indispensable. The

expression of models in forensic intelligence is necessary for ensuring transparency. It is

particularly turned towards crime prevention in policing, when police are not

necessarily leading such programs. It is not the monopoly of State’s agencies. We argue

that the scientific information, the trace, has to be privileged, rather than rejected from

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this debate, despite the potential fears prompted by the misinterpretation of the term

‘intelligence’.

In this context, we ought to ask the question: could forensic intelligence be the saviour of

forensic science?

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