Challenges and Opportunities

Hamza Kabelwa

REGIONAL FORECASTING SUPPORT CENTRE, DAR ES SALAAM

Washington, USA, 18-20 June 2013

Outline

• Severe conditions experienced in the region• Roles of Regional Specialized Met. Centre• RSMC Web portal• Verification• Benefits and Challenges

Extreme dry conditions-Livelihoods and economic losses

Vincent N. Sakwa RSMC, Nairobi

Heavy Rainfall – FLOODS and Landslide/Mudslide

• PEOPLES’ WELL BEING (HOUSING)

Housing Transport

Roads and Infrastructure Destruction

Landslides after heavy rains

Vincent N. Sakwa RSMC, Nairobi

Roles of RSMC, Nairobi• It’s lead regional centre for this project, including the

responsibility for the development and management of a dedicated project Web Portal;

• Gives the NMHSs relevant guidance products issued from the global centre

• Develops daily guidance products for NMHSs containing an interpretation of medium-range deterministic and EPS products and an assessment of alternative scenarios;

• Makes available all relevant guidance products via a password-protected Web Portal and archives the products.

• Participates in the provision of preparatory training;• Implemented an archival process for relevant products and

data;

RFSC - Dar es Salaam• RFSC - Dar es Salaam has a responsibility of assisting

RSMC – Nairobi in issuing Severe Weather Forecasting Guidance – for the Lake Victoria Basin and – Verification of the forecasts

• TMA has established the Severe and Medium Range Weather Forecasting desk (SEMERAWF).7 personnel (3-forecasters,2-ICT,1-PWS and 1-AgMet)

• The guidance forecasts are based on available NWP products provided by – Global Centers and – the limited area models at high resolution for the Lake

Victoria Basin which are UKMET and the WRF (run by TMA)

Global Guidance Services

• Phase I: September 2012 - February, 2013 RFSC – Dar es salaam together with RSMC –

Nairobi were receiving Guidance Forecasts and additional model fields from the UKMET office (UKGM).

• Phase II: March 2013-To date Daily audio visual conferencing between RSMC, RFSC and UKMET

Link to RFSC – Dar es salaam from RSMC-Nairobi

RFSC – Dar es salaam web portal

Link to the “WRF-Tanzania” nested NWP products for the Lake Victoria Basin

WRF: 3-hour accumulated ppt

Severe Weather Forecasting Guidance and Verification

DAY ONE

DAY TWO

VERIFICATION

Wave Model for the Lake Victoria• Mwanza in Tanzania , existing facts

– Search and Rescue Center in EAC – RFSC for Lake Victoria Basin – assisting RSMC Nairobi to provide Forecasting

Guidance for large waves– need to be equipped with useful tools,

• Running Wave Model operationally with high resolution is good idea. eg. WAVE WATCH MODEL

• Lake Observations for verification • Support for the forecasting process of the large wave

and strong wind events over the lake will be strengthened hence improving marine forecasts and help in the Search and Rescue processes in the region.

• TMA is planning to do Data assimilation and hence improve to a large extent the forecast over the lake

• Accessibility to a variety of forecast products• Built capacity in the region• Objective forecasting (High res. Models, EPS)• Increased the skill of the forecasters and boosted

their confidence.• Improved forecast accuracy resulted in attitude

change of the public on the warnings/advisories.• Improved the lead time of providing alerts and

advisories to these events.• Improved the links with their national DMCPA.

Benefits of SWFDP-EA

Benefits of SWFDP-EA, Cont.

Contributions to WMO high priorities– GFCS• Agriculture and Climate change Adaptaion

– WIGOS & WIS• Verification, Data Assimilation, SWFDP

defines the requirements of the observation and telecommunication for warning systems

– Aeronautical Meteorology (QMS)• SIGMET

– Disaster Risk Reduction -Target users (DMCPA)– Capacity Development in forecasting and

Service delivery

FUTURE PLAN OF THE RFSC – DAR ES SALAAM TO THE SWFDP-EA

• Improvement of National Observing network.– Installation of Doppler

Radar at Mwanza, of which is expected to be operational by towards the end of 2013

• Data Assimilation

• Wave Model for the Lake Victoria