brantford s&d report march_06

8/13/2019 Brantford S&D Report March_06

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Brant BrantfordAffordable HousingSupply and DemandAnalysis Report

Revised March 2006


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AcknowledgementS

The communitys successful bid to receive funding during the first round of the NationalHousing Initiative in 2004, for 102 units of affordable housing can be attributed to:

Community Partnersfrom the public, non-profit and private sectors, whogreatly inspired and contributed to the work of the Affordable Housing Strategy in

2002/03 and who have, and continue to, champion the cause of affordable housingwithin the City and County.

City and County Councilorswho recognize and support the work doneby the community to articulate the need for allresidents to have safe, affordablehomes. Our elected officials have taken up the banner for affordable housing.Political will is a critical factor in realizing this strategy and we are grateful to ourelected officials for demonstrating this will.

SHS Inc. Social Housing Strategists, Christine Pacini, EdwardStarr, and Spencer Ferdinand provided their expertise and hours of hard work tosupport and guide the taskforce in preparing the original documents, and theycontinue to provide guidance to help develop our successful projects. This 2005revised Plan is founded on their excellent work completed in the 2003 Demand andSupply Analysis, and Affordable Housing Strategy.

Sherry McGee2005 summer student with the Housing Department, whoskillfully reviewed the 2003 Demand and Supply Analysis, and Affordable HousingStrategy updating statistics and reviewing the information with communitystakeholders.

This revised document will provide the information required to qualify for the newCanada-Ontario Affordable Housing Program announced August 31, 2005.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary..............................................................1Summary of Recommendations ............................4

Section 1: Introduction................................................... 6

Section 2: Housing Demand Analysis...........................8

Population................................................................8

Household Growth and Distribution......................14

Economic Profile .....................................................20

Section 3: Housing Supply Analysis...................................28

Dwelling Types ........................................................28

Condition of Housing Stock...................................32

New Housing Supply...............................................34

Availability of Rental Housing................................44

Housing for Specific Populations..........................47

Cost of Ownership ..................................................67

Cost of Rental Housing...........................................71Affordability Analysis .............................................72

Canada / Ontario Affordable Housing Program....74


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LIST OF TABLESTable 1: Comparative Growth Rates 1981-2001 ............................................................ 8Table 2 Historical Population ........................................................................................ 9Table 3: Trends in Age Distribution by Age Group (Working Age)..................................10

Table 4: Trends in Age Distribution by Age Group (60+) ................................................10Table 5: Ministry of Finance Population Projections by Age...........................................13Table 6: Trends in Household Growth ............................................................................15Table 7: Trends in Household Size by Municipality 1986-2001 ......................................15Table 8: Persons per Household 1986-2001 ..................................................................15Table 9: Population by Household Type 1991-2001.......................................................16Table 10: Projected Number of Households 2001-2021...................................................19Table 11: Labour Force Activity 1996 & 2001...................................................................20Table 12: Labour Force Activity by Industry 1996 & 2001 ................................................21Table 13: Comparison of Average Household Income 1996 & 2001 ...............................21Table 14: Comparison of Median Household Income 1996 & 2001 .................................22Table 15: Comparison of Average Individual Income 1991-2001 .....................................22Table 16: Household Income 1996 & 2001 ......................................................................23

Table 17: Household Income 2001...................................................................................24Table 18: Median Individual Income 1996 & 2001............................................................24Table 19: Incidence of Low Income (LICO) 2001 .............................................................26Table 20: Median Income by Family Type (Brantford) 1996-2000....................................27Table 21: Median Income by Family Type (Ontario) 1996-2000.......................................27Table 22: Occupied Private Dwellings (Brant/Brantford) 1991-2001 ................................29Table 23: Occupied Private Dwellings by Municipality 2001.............................................30Table 24: Dwellings by Tenure 1986-2001 .......................................................................32Table 25: Dwellings by Age and Municipality 2001...........................................................33Table 26: Condition of Dwellings 2001 .............................................................................34Table 27: Housing Starts (Brantford) 2000-2004 ..............................................................34Table 28: Occupancy/Completion Certificates Issued (Brantford) 2002-2004 ..................35Table 29: Number of Permits Issued (Brantford) 1985-2004 ............................................36Table 30: Comparison of New Residential Activity 2001-2005 .........................................39Table 31: Permits Issued, (Brant) 2002-2004...................................................................39Table 32: Summary-Residential Subdivision Potential (Brantford 12/2004) .....................40Table 33: Total-Residential Subdivision Potential (Brantford 1993-2004) ........................41Table 34: Short-Term Housing Supply (Brantford 12/2004)..............................................42Table 35: Occupied Private Dwellings- Tenure & Type 2001 ...........................................45Table 36: Rental Housing Vacancy Rates (Brantford) .....................................................46Table 37: Assisted Housing Supply 2005 .........................................................................48Table 38: Social Housing Waiting List August 2005 .........................................................48Table 39: Nova Vita Womens Shelter Service Statistics 1999-2005................................55Table 40: Historical Comparison- Housing Prices (Brantford) 1999-2004 ........................68Table 41: MLS Sales by Price Category 2003 & 2004 .....................................................70

Table 42: Homes Listed for Sale (July 2005) ..................................................................71Table 43: Average Rents (Brantford) 1999-2004..............................................................71Table 44: Affordable Rent & Ownership Costs Based on Income ...................................73Table 45: Comparison-Average Rents to Affordable Rents 2005 .....................................73Table 46: Private Apartment Vacancy rates 2004-2005 ...................................................74


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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Brant / Brantford Geographical Area..................................................7Figure 2: Updated Population Estimates 2001-2021.........................................11Figure 3: Trends in Household Growth 1986-2001 ...........................................14Figure 4: Population by Family Type 1996-2001 Brant/Brantford .....................17Figure 5: Population by Family Type 1996-2001 City of Brantford....................18Figure 6: Projected Average Household Size 2001-2021 .................................19Figure 7: Trends in Housing Tenure 1986-2001 ...............................................31Figure 8: New Residential Units 2004...............................................................37Figure 9: Residential Building Activity 1983-2004.............................................38Figure 10: Total Residential Subdivision Potential 1993-2000............................41Figure 11: Average Apartment and Townhouse Rents 2000-2004 .....................46

Figure 12: Accommodation Related Crises 1997-2005.......................................58Figure 13: Brant Native Housing Waiting List, 8/ 2005........................................61Figure 14: Enrolment Rates Brantford Laurier 2002-2005 ..................................63Figure 15: Dedicated Seniors Social Housing 2005 ...........................................64Figure 16 Average MLS Residential Sale Price 1993-2004 ...............................69


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYSection 1 of this document provides the reader with an overview of this report. Itexplains why the City of Brantford (the Service Manager for housing for the County as

well as the City) was required to embark on a demand and supply analysis of itshousing needs and stock, and how this report positions the City to apply for fundingfrom senior levels of government to address identified shortages of housing for targetpopulations.

Section 2 presents statistical and demographic information with respect to populationgrowth and projections, household distribution, an economic profile of the area as wellas income levels. This section identifies the demand for housing,and the types ofhousing required with respect to size, form of tenure and affordability, by differentpopulation groups.

Section 3 analyses the supply of housingstock that currently exists in the City andCounty. This analysis considers trends in new construction, condition of current stockand availability of rental, transitional and emergency housing for target groups such as

Aboriginals, persons with special needs, youth, victims of violence, students, seniorsand homeless individuals and families.

Major findings from the Supply and Demand Analysis, as well as a summary ofrecommendations are included in this section for convenience.

MAJOR FINDINGS of the Demand and Supply Analysis:

Housing Affordability (Income): The most serious affordability difficulties are found among lone parent families with

children, and singles living on their own. A supply of accommodation that isaffordable to these individuals and families is urgently needed in Brant/Brantford toreduce both poverty and homelessness.

There is an increasing trend toward low-wage employment. Expanding the supply ofaffordable units so residents employed in low-wage employment are able to live andwork in their home community is required. An adequate supply of affordable homesalso ensures current and prospective employers that this community has a resident

workforce.

Rural residents incur additional living expenses such as transportation. The need foraffordable housing for this group in the County is no less critical.

City of BrantfordAffordable Housing Supply and Demand Analysis (March, 2006)

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Population, Changes and Trends:Seniors Since 2003 all Municipally owned and operated seniors buildings (rent-gearedto income and low market rent) have been restricted to persons 60 years of age or over.This has freed up approximately 190 units exclusively for this group. The waiting list forseniors rent-geared-to-income housing dropped 16%. Overall, the demand foraffordable seniors housing is currently being met, however changing demographics willdemand that the balance between seniors and non-seniors one bedroomaccommodation be constantly monitored, and adjusted considering available housing

stock.

Single People and Couples The policy change for seniors housing has constricted theavailable housing options for non-senior singles and couples 16-59 years of age. Assingles experience some of the worst affordability issues and lengthy waits, this grouprequires priority in new housing considerations.

Aboriginals Discussions with Brant Native Housing indicate that housing for nativepersons is still in high demand in Brant/Brantford. The current waiting list for nativespecific rent-geared-to-income and affordable housing has a total of 231 applications,

representing 560 adults and children. This represents a 48.1% increase from 2003,when approximately 130 applicants were on the waiting list, representing a total of 378people.

Special Needs This type of housing refers to units that have been modified for personswith physical disabilities, as well as other groups requiring support. This housing typeallows these persons to live more independently. Special needs housing is in shortsupply for many individuals requiring support. Of particular consideration are youth,seniors, persons with mental illness, persons with physical disability/mobilityimpairment, and abused women and children.

Emergency and Transitional HousingCommunity agencies continue to report increasingpressure on their services, due to the lack of affordable housing and supports forvulnerable populations, such as victims of abuse, persons with mental illness, andyouth. Affordable housing with transitional supports allow many individuals and familiesto secure and maintain housing.

Student Housing The need for student housing is a recent phenomena in thiscommunity. Enrolment at Laurier Brantford has increased tremendously since theuniversitys inception in 1995, when it totalled only 570 students. This past academicyear (2004/05), Brantford Laurier had 1025 students, an increase of over 80%.

In 2004/05, approximately 2/3 of students required accommodation in Brantford, and it

is predicted that this number is likely to remain constant for the 2005/2006 academicyear. As of September 2005, Brantford will have a total of 231 housing units dedicatedto students. Additionally, the Y Homes project is just breaking ground in Sept. 05, andwill provide 112 student units for the next academic year. Despite ongoing developmentefforts, the supply of student housing is expected to experience a shortfall of 338 units


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in 2005/06, placing a further demand on this communitys limited affordable housingsupply.

Current Demand for Affordable Housing:

Population and household forecasts point to a continuing and steady demand forhousing units in Brant/Brantford. Based on growth forecasts for the area, it isexpected that an average of 584 new units per year will need to be produced over

the next twenty years, consisting of 449 units for the City of Brantford and 135 unitsfor Brant County.

Accordingto a City of Brantfordreport, between 2001 and 2004, 80% of new unitsbuilt within Brantford were single and semi-detached dwellings, despite theincreasing need for a diversity of household types, and declining household sizes.The prices of such units are out for reach for a large portion of local residents.Recent housing production for purpose-built rental accommodation has been limitedto the projects supported by the affordable housing program and Conversion RRAP.

Approximately 70% of all housing in Brant/Brantford is comprised of owner-occupied

dwellings. This high percentage reflects an unstable stock of rental accommodationas owners may at any time convert these rental units for private use.

As of 2001, nearly 60% of the housing stock in Brantford was over 30 years old.Older dwellings play an important role in providing low-cost accommodation. It isimportant that measures are taken to address their state of repair, in order to retainthis stock in the community.

In 2005, CMHC reported a vacancy rate of 1.8% in Brantford. This was downconsiderably from the 3.1% rate in 2003. Generally, vacancy rates have beendecreasing since 1998.

The waiting list for rent-geared-to-income units has declined slightly. In July 2003,the waiting list stood at 1202; in July 2005, this figure had dropped to 1188. Althoughpositive, singles seeking accommodation are still in great demand comprising 40%of the waiting list (bachelor or 1-bedroom units), indicating a critical need foraffordable one bedroom accommodation for those less than 60 years of age.

An analysis of residential development capacity shows that the City of Brantfordpossesses a number of sites and locations with the capacity to contribute towardsmeeting affordable housing needs. Opportunities are available to coordinate housingefforts with other important City planning objectives, such as downtownrevitalization, and Brownfield redevelopment. Many such plans are currently in theearly stages of implementation.

The Y Apartments is developing 27 units of affordable rental housing, and anadditional 112 beds of student housing, as part of the Downtown RevitalizationStrategy. A private developer, Multani Homes is developing 51 units (39 one-bedroom, 12 two-bedroom) one-bedroom units. Four of these units will be available


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and modest income earners cannot be met without some form of support. Thereis a great need to ensure that additional incentives and policies are in place toencourage local builders, developers and construction trades to participate in themarket for permanent affordable housing. (page 43)

7. Increase the supply of rental housing. At least 127 new rental-housing units peryear need to be developed to meet the housing needs of households earningless than $20,000 annually. (page 46)

8. Increase the supply of affordable special needs housing and complementarysupport services for special needs groups such as: persons with mental illness,persons with developmental delays, persons with physical disability/mobilityimpairment, and those requiring respite care. (page 53)

9. Increase the supply of emergency and temporary/transitional housing. Thisshortage is exacerbated by the lack of affordable housing in which to transferindividuals and families to, from emergency accommodation. (page 60)

10. Expand the supply of Native housing in Brant/Brantford. (page 62)

11. Expand the supply of student housing. (page 64)

12. Ensure new housing meets the needs of aging population. Attention needs beplaced on meeting both the accommodation and support services needs ofseniors living in rural communities, enabling them to maintain their ruralresidence. Additionally, seniors who are at the low end of the income scale, orthose who seek transitional housing, also need to be addressed. (page 67)

13. Ensure new housing is affordable for all residents. (page 74)

14. Include both the City of Brantford and Brant County in housing solutions. (page75)

15. Continue to advocate forfunds from all sectors to ensure that this plan meets itsstated goals and objectives. (page 75)

1: INTRODUCTIONOverview

A number of demographic, social and economic conditions give rise to the demand forhousing in a community. This report reviews the impact of the changing demographic,social, and economic conditions on housing needs currently facing Brant/Brantford.


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Background:In 2001 the responsibility for housing was transferred from the Province of Ontario tothe City of Brantford. The Citys Housing Department assumed responsibility for fundingsocial housing as well as collaborating with community partners to develop a system ofservices and supports within the community, ranging from programs for the absolutehomeless to social housing policies promoting safe, affordable housing.

Instantaneously, community concerns about the inadequate supply of affordable and

subsidized rental housing in Brant/Brantford were raised. Community service providersnoted how the lack of affordable housing was placing increased pressures on localprograms and services. As a result of these concerns, the Director of the HousingDepartment assembled a Steering Committee of community leaders to develop an

Affordable Housing Strategy for this Service Area, which includes both the City ofBrantford and County of Brant.

The overall purpose of the Affordable Housing Strategy was to develop acomprehensive community plan that effectively dealt with affordable housing issues inBrant County and Brantford. In July of 2003, an Affordable Housing Strategy,

Affordable Housing Strategy Supply and Demand Analysis, and Executive Summary

Report were completed, providing an extensive overview of this communitys affordablehousing composition, emerging trends, and recommendations for action. Furthermore,these reports brought a greater awareness to the local community, and senior levels ofgovernment about the housing needs and challenges specific to Brantford/Brant.

On May 25, 2002 the first round of the Ontario/Canada Affordable Housing Initiative wasannounced and the City of Brantford was well positioned with its study to qualify for $2.8million for 102 units of affordable housing. Additionally, on August 31, 2005 theProvincial and Federal Governments announced a new round of allocations for housing,from which Brantford received a total of 2.8 million dollars for 40 homes and $600,000for rent supplements. Most recently on March 31, 2006 the Provincial and Federal

Governments announced additional funding of 2.8 million dollars for another 40 homestherefore Brantford will receive a total of 5.6 million dollars. These projects will be builtaccording to the priorities identified in this updated report.

Brantfords bid for funding from the first and second rounds of the Ontario-CanadaAffordable Housing Initiative was successful due to the collaborative community effort indeveloping the Demand and Supply Analysis, developing the definition of AffordableHousing, the Facilities By-law, and the action plans, all of which were required criteriafor this funding.

Throughout this document the term affordable housing is used. In 2003 Affordable

Housing (including rental prices) was calculated based on the following assumptions:

Rental housing costs were calculated at 30% of household income;


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Ownership housing costs were calculated based on a monthly tax rate equal to0.125% of the house value; a 10% down payment; a mortgage interest rate of 6.50%and a 25 year amortization period.

Based on these assumptions, affordable rent and affordable ownership costs werecalculated for household incomes in $10,000 increments from under $10,000, to anincome of $50,000. This definition will continue to be used in this revision. (see page73)

What is Affordable Housing?Affordable housing should not be confused with social housing. Social housingconsists of regulated accommodation where a rental subsidy is paid to the landlordbased on a rent-geared-to-income test for the household. Although social housing is infact affordable, the definition used for this document is broader in scope.

Affordable housing for the purposes of this document includes housing that has low-market rent and even affordable home ownership models. All of these initiatives aregeared to individuals and families requiring accommodation that fit the above definition.

This 2005 revision reflects the changes resulting from the Canada/Ontario AffordableHousing funding, as well as recent changes in demographics, community policy, trends,and infrastructure that have occurred over the past two years.

Composition of this Service Area:

The Service Area for the City of Brantford includestwo geographical areas: the City of Brantford andBrant County as shown in Figure 1. In order tofacilitate the analysis, the term Brant/Brantford isused to refer to the area covered by bothmunicipalities.

Figure 1: Brant/Brantford Geographical Area


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2: Housing Demand AnalysisPurposeThis section provides an overview of the various housing needs currently facing

Brant/Brantford.

Permanent Population Growth And DistributionThe 2001 census reported that Brant/Brantford possessed a permanent population of118,485, an increase of 6.9% over the past 10 years. This represents a growth rate wellbelow the province of Ontario, which grew 13.1% during this decade. Nevertheless, thisgrowth of 7,700 persons does give rise to an increasing demand for housing in thisarea. Below we describe some of the recent changes to demographic profiles in thearea and their impact on housing needs.

Comparative Population Growth RatesTable 1 illustrates the increase in population that occurred between 1981 and 2001.This coincided with a strongly expanding economy across Ontario, although thepercentage increase of the Brant/Brantford population was less than half that of Ontarioas a whole. The economic slowdown of the mid-to-late 1990s is reflected in the slowergrowth observed from 1991 to 2001 in Ontario, however Brant/Brantfords growthremained constant.

Table 1: Comparative Growth Rates (1981 2001), Brant/Brantford and Ontario

Population

1981 1991 2001

Brant/Brantford 104,427 110,806 118,485

Ontario 8,625,107 10,084,885 11,410,046

Increase (%)

1981-91 1991-2001

Brant/Brantford 6.1% 6.9%

Ontario 16.9% 13.1%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1981, 1991, & 2001 Census

Population Growth Trends by MunicipalityTable 2 shows population change by municipality from 1986 to 2001. This tableillustrates the increasing level of growth being directed toward Brant County in recentyears as a result of a trend toward suburbanization. While the City of Brantfordincreased its share of area population from 71.7% in 1986 to 74.0% in 1996, the trendhas been reversed in recent years, with Brant Countys share increasing to 27.1% in


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2001. This trend is evident in the many subdivisions currently under development in theCounty.

Brantford

Table 2: Historical Population, City of Brantford, Brant County

Municipality 1991 % 2001 %

City of Brantford 81,997 74.0% 86,417 72.9%

Brant County 28,809 26.0% 32,068 27.1%

Brant/Brantford 110,806 100.0% 118,485 100.0%

Natural Increase and In-MigrationData provided by Statistics Canada offers further insight about the nature ofBrant/Brantfords population growth. Statistics Canada reports that the population of thearea grew from 114,564 to 118,485 from 1996 to 2001, an increase of 3,921 persons.During this time period, there were 8,219 births and 6,413 deaths. This accounted for anet gain of 1,806 persons as a result of natural change (or 46.1%). The balance ofpopulation growth can be attributed to in-migration, which totalled 2,115 during this 5-year period. The rate of natural increase and in-migration, as a result, are equallyimportant proponents of population growth in Brant/Brantford.

Similar data for the Province of Ontario show that provincial population grew from10,964,925 to 11,249,490 from 1996 to 2001, an increase of 284,565 persons. The dataalso shows that births exceeded deaths by 182,160 persons; thus, resulting in a naturalincrease of 64.0% in Ontario, with in-migration accounting for the rest. It can be seen,therefore, that, in comparison to the Province as whole, in-migration is an especiallysignificant contributor to population growth in Brant/Brantford.

In terms of housing needs, the above observations indicate that growth in housingdemand is equally important from within the local community, as well as from personsmoving to Brant/Brantford from elsewhere. This growth will place an increased andsustained demand on Brant/Brantfords housing supply. A housing supply analysis,based on the projected population and household growth, will be provided later in thereport.

Age Distribution TrendsBrant/Brantfords population is growing older; from 1986 to 2001, the proportion of thepopulation in Brant/Brantford aged 45-64 years increased from 19.6% to 24.0%. These


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figures are even greater than the Provincial average. At the same time, persons aged24 and under, dropped from 38.1% of the total population to 33.3%.

Table 3 illustrates growth trends in the age distribution of the working-aged population(16-59), consequently, those most likely to be participants in the housing market(renting or buying).Additionally, illustrated is the increase in middle-aged persons,many of who will be singles in need of smaller housing units.

Table 3: Trends in Age Distribution by Age Group of Working-Aged Population (16-59)

Brant/Brantford Ontario

Age Group 1991 % 1996 % 2001 % 2001 %

15-19 7,815 11.7% 7,770 11.3% 8,580 11.8% 769,420 10.6%

20-24 7,200 10.8% 7,055 10.2% 7,010 9.6% 718,420 9.9%

25-29 8,995 13.5% 6,910 10.0% 6,885 9.4% 729,655 10.0%

30-34 9,255 13.9% 9,245 13.4% 7,480 10.3% 828,840 11.4%

35-39 8,980 13.5% 9,455 13.7% 9,585 13.2% 989,845 13.6%

40-44 8,195 12.3% 9,040 13.1% 9,590 13.2% 969,675 13.4%

45-49 6,195 9.3% 8,140 11.8% 9,135 12.5% 859,130 11.8%

50-54 5,065 7.6% 6,095 8.8% 8,230 11.3% 776,145 10.7%

55-59 4,790 7.2% 5,035 7.3% 6,070 8.3% 584,495 8.0%

TOTAL 66,490 100% 68,745 100% 72,565 100% 7,225,625 100%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1991, 1996 & 2001 CensusIt is to be noted that these populations projections are up to date as of 2001 census

Table 4 illustrates that the overall population of Brant/Brantford is aging, similar to thepopulation trends currently occurring in Ontario. From 1986 to 2001, the proportion ofthe population in Brant/Brantford over the age of 65 grew from 12.8% to 14.4% of thetotal. This gradual aging of the population over time suggests an increasing need forhousing and support services for seniors within Brant/Brantford. See page 64 for

discussion on the housing for our senior population.

Table 4: Trends in Age Distribution by Age Group (60+)

Brant/Brantford Ontario

Age Group 1991 % 1996 % 2001 % 2001 %

60-64 4,900 24.2% 4,695 22.5% 5,030 22.7% 479,500 24.5%

65-74 8,820 43.6% 9,050 43.4% 8,840 40.0% 818,170 41.9%

75 and over 6,485 32.0% 7,075 33.9% 8,220 37.2% 653,995 33.5%

TOTAL 20,205 100% 20,820 100% 22,090 100% 1,951,665 100%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1991, 1996 & 2001 CensusIt is to be noted that these populations projections are up to date as of 2001 census

Projected Population Growth By Municipality


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The City of Brantford Planning Department has prepared forecasts of projected citypopulation growth from 2001 to 2021. At the same time, Brant County preparedpopulation forecasts as part of its Official Plan process.

Figure 2 combines the forecast for the City of Brantford and the forecast for BrantCounty. Using these recent projections, the population in Brant/Brantford is estimated toincrease from 118,485 in 2001, to 140,093 in 2021. If household size remains atcurrent levels (2.6 persons per household), this will translate into a need for about 8,311

more housing units in Brant/Brantford, or an average of about 416 additional dwellingsper year over the 20-year period.

Figure 2: Updated Population Estimates for City of Brantford and Brant County,2001-2021

80,000

60,000

40,00020,000

86,417 92,38097,925 103,120

107,250

32,068 35,32338,820 42,262

45,649

118,485127,703

136,745145,382

152,899

-

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Year

Population

Projection

City Brant Total

Source: City of Brantford population projections may be subject to change pending the final approval of the Places to Grow GrowthPlan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe area, of which the City of Brantford and Brant County are part. 1*It is to be noted that these populations projections are up to date as of 2001 census, yet are now subject to change as a result ofthe Ontario Government Place to Grow* initiative.2

However, given the aging of the population and trends toward more, smaller familyhouseholds, household size is likely to decline, resulting in a need for a greater numberand range of additional dwelling units throughout the area. More detailed forecasts ofhousehold growth taking these trends into account are provided later in this section.These will provide a better sense of future housing needs and development activityneeded to sustain the expected population growth.

1Population forecasts are being updated as part of the Citys Official Plan Review process. Theseupdates have been approved by Council, and are therefore not available for public review at this time.Project Completion for the Official Plan Review is due in September, 2006.2Population forecasts are being updated as part of the Citys Official Plan Review process. These

updates have been approved by Council, and are therefore not available for public review at this time.Project Completion for the Official Plan Review is due in September 2006.


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It should be noted that, as shown in Section 3, residential development activity inBrant/Brantford is generally keeping pace with projected growth trends. However, newresidential development, as noted earlier, is starting to see multiples because of newsubsidized programs, however the private market continues to be comprised almostentirely of single and semi-detached dwellings. These units serve mainly households atthe higher end of the income scale, and are usually out of the reach to households atthe lower end. Thus, a greater range of housing types is needed, as will be furtherillustrated in the later of this report.

Recommendation 1:Maintain current production levels of housing development to meet theanticipated population growth in the City and County. Widespread construction ofsingle and semi-detached homes is successfully meeting the needs of moderateand upper-income households. Many of these households are moving to theBrantford area, and choosing to commute to the GTA, due to lower housing costs,and the atmosphere of a smaller community.

Projected Population Growth By AgeTable 5 represents the Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections forOntario.The projections show that the population age 65 and over is expected toincrease from 13.5% of the total population in 2001 to 15.9% in 2016 and 20.2% in by2026. These forecasts provide further evidence of the need to pay particular attentionto forms of housing and supports suited to seniors.


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Table 5: Ministry of Finance Population Projections by Age, Brant/Brantford

Age Group 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Total % Total % Total % Total % Total % Total %

0 to 47,120 5.6 7,050 5.4 7,580 5.6 8,000 5.7 8,120 5.6 7,890 5.3

5 to 99,010 7.1 7,320 5.6 7,250 5.4 7,790 5.6 8,220 5.7 8,350 5.6

10 to 149,300 7.3 9,170 7.0 7,490 5.5 7,420 5.3 7,970 5.5 8,410 5.7

15 to 19 9,450 7.5 9,470 7.2 9,340 6.9 7,670 5.5 7,610 5.3 8,170 5.5

20 to 248,770 6.9 9,720 7.4 9,740 7.2 9,630 6.9 7,970 5.5 7,920 5.3

25 to 298,010 6.3 9,160 7.0 10,100 7.5 10,140 7.3 10,050 7.0 8,410 5.7

30 to 347,980 6.3 8,360 6.4 9,510 7.0 10,470 7.5 10,520 7.3 10,440 7.0

35 to 3910,330 8.1 8,190 6.3 8,570 6.3 9,730 7.0 10,700 7.4 10,770 7.3

40 to 4410,280 8.1 10,440 8.0 8,320 6.2 8,710 6.2 9,880 6.9 10,860 7.3

45 to 499,540 7.5 10,290 7.9 10,460 7.7 8,370 6.0 8,770 6.1 9,940 6.7

50 to 548,390 6.6 9,460 7.2 10,210 7.6 10,380 7.4 8,340 5.8 8,740 5.9

55 to 59 6,250 4.9 8,230 6.3 9,290 6.9 10,050 7.2 10,230 7.1 8,240 5.6

60 to 645,180 4.1 6,060 4.6 7,980 5.9 9,020 6.5 9,780 6.8 9,980 6.7

65 to 694,610 3.6 4,900 3.7 5,750 4.3 7,580 5.4 8,600 6.0 9,340 6.3

70 to 744,310 3.4 4,160 3.2 4,450 3.3 5,240 3.8 6,920 4.8 7,890 5.3

75 to 793,880 3.1 3,610 2.8 3,510 2.6 3,780 2.7 4,490 3.1 5,970 4.0

80 to 842,430 1.9 2,910 2.2 2,720 2.0 2,680 1.9 2,930 2.0 3,510 2.4

85 to 891,400 1.1 1,530 1.2 1,840 1.4 1,750 1.3 1,750 1.2 1,940 1.3

90 + 590 0.5 840 0.6 1,010 0.7 1,230 0.9 1,270 0.9 1,310 0.9

Total 126,830 100.0 130,860 100.0 135,120 100.0 139,660 100.0 144,120 100.0 148,100 100.0

Source: City of Brantford population projections may be subject to change pending the final approval of the Places to Grow Growth Plan for theGreater Golden Horseshoe area, of which the City of Brantford and Brant County are part. 3*It is to be noted that these populations projections are up to date as of 2001 census, yet are now subject to change as a result of the OntarioGovernment Place to Grow* initiative

3Population forecasts are being updated as part of the Citys Official Plan Review process. These



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HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION

Trends in Household GrowthWhile population growth is an important indicator of change, the demand for housing isactually a direct function of the number, and type of households currently in acommunity. Figure 3 and Table 5 show that the number of households inBrant/Brantford grew by 7,290 between 1986 and 2001. From a historical standpoint,

as shown in Figure 3, the number of households in the City of Brantford andBrant/Brantford has been steadily increasing over the years.

Figure 3: Trends in Household Growth by Municipality, Brant County & City of Brantford, 19862001

9,860 9,640 10,05511,205

27,90030,460

32,23033,845

37,76040,100

42,28545,050

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1986 1991 1996 2001

Year

#ofHo

useholds

Brant County City of Brantford Brant/Brantford

Source: Statistics Canada, 1986, 1991, 1996 & 2001 Census

Table 6 illustrates that there was a relatively high level of growth in households between1986 and 1991 in the City of Brantford in comparison to Brant County. The number ofhouseholds increased by 9.2% in the City of Brantford, but declined by 2.2% in BrantCounty. The 1991 to 1996 period displays steady household growth in the twomunicipalities. During this period, the number of households in the City of Brantfordincreased by 5.8% and the number of households in Brant County grew by 4.3%. The1996 to 2001 period displayed considerable variation in household growth between theCity of Brantford and Brant County. The number of households in Brant County grew by11.4%, compared to only 5.0% in the City of Brantford. This observation provides furtherevidence of the extent of recent suburban housing development in the area.


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Table 6: Trends in Household Growth, Brant County and City of Brantford 1991-2001

Municipality 1991 1996 2001% Change, 1991-

1996

% Change, 1996-

2001

City of Brantford 30,460 32,230 33,845 5.8% 5.0%

Brant County 9,640 10,055 11,205 4.3% 11.4%

Brant/Brantford 40,100 42,285 45,050 5.4% 6.5%

Ontario 3,638,360 3,924,515 4,219,415 7.9% 7.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1991, 1996 & 2001 Census

Trends in Household SizeAs shown in Table 7, since 1991 household size has slightly decreased from 2.8 to 2.6persons in Brant/Brantford over the past 15 years, while remaining constant in theprovince at 2.7. In 2001, the decline in household size was particularly noticeable in theCity of Brantford, which showed the smallest average household size at 2.5 persons perhousehold in comparison to Brant Countys 2.8 and Brant/Brantfords 2.6.

Table 7: Trends in Household Size by Municipality, 1986-2001

Municipality 1986 1991 1996 2001

City of Brantford 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5

Brant County 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8

Brant/Brantford 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6

Ontario 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7


This observation points further to the aging of the population, and even more significanttrends such as divorce, which in turn shows the need for a greater variety of unit types,particularly those designed for singles. Given the above trends, smaller household sizes

are expected to continue. Table 8 sheds further light on the occupancy of housing withinBrant/Brantford.

Table 8: Persons Per Household, Brant/Brantford, 1991-2001

1991 1996 2001

Household SizeTotal % Total % Total %

1 Person 8,400 20.9% 9,385 22.2% 11,035 24.5%

2 Persons 12,835 32.0% 13,690 32.4% 14,740 32.7%

3 Persons 7,130 17.8% 7,180 17.0% 7,325 16.3%

4-5 Persons 10,515 26.2% 10,750 25.4% 10,700 23.7%

6+ Persons 1,220 3.0% 1,275 3.0% 1,255 2.8%

Total 40,100 100.0% 42,280 100.0% 45,055 100.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Census


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The proportion of one and two person households has increased steadily from 1991 to2001 (from 52.9% of households to 57.2%). Conversely, the proportion of three to fiveperson households has declined from 44% in 1991 to 40.0% in 2001. By comparison,54.9% of the provincial population in 2001 contained one and two person households,lower than Brant/Brantford total of 57.2%. This table provides further evidence of theneed to diversify housing types to accommodate the changing nature of the population,particularly regarding the need to provide additional units suited for smaller households.

Trends In Household TypeTable 9 shows that in 2001, 73.1% of the Brant/Brantford population was living withinsome type of family household, which includes: married-couple families, common-lawcouple families, and lone-parent families (male and/or female). There was a slightdecline in the proportion of family households between 1991 and 2001, from 75.7% in1991 to 74.6% in 1996 to 73.1% in 2001. The proportion of the population in familyhouseholds in Brant/Brantford is somewhat higher than Ontario as a whole, 73.1%compared to 70.5% respectively.

Table 9: Population by Household Type, Brant/Brantford and Ontario, 1991-20011991

Fa % of Tot Non-Family4 % of Total

City of Brantford 2,385 %2 73.5 8,075 26.5%

Brant County %7,980 82.8 1,660 17.2%

Brant/Brantford 0,365 %3 75.7 9,735 24.3%

Ontario 8,000 %2,66 73.3 970,370 26.7%

1996

Fa % of Tot Non- Family % of Total

City of Brantford 3,235 %2 72.1 8,990 27.9%Brant County %8,325 82.7 1,740 17.3%

Brant/Brantford 1,560 %3 74.6 10,730 25.4%

Ontario 7,065 %2,85 72.8 1,067,445 27.2%

2001

Fa % of Tot Non- Family % of Total

City of Brantford 3,795 %2 69.2 10,610 30.8%

Brant County %8,995 81.4 2,060 18.6%

Brant/Brantford 6,910 %3 75.2 12,145 24.8%

Ontario 5,565 %8,15 70.5 3,407,410 29.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1991, 1996 & 2001 Census

mily al

mily al

mily al


16

4Census Canada defines Non-Family as one who is not living with a spouse/common-law and/or one who is living without children


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In terms of household type by municipality, census data shows that Brant County had atotal of 81.4% family households, whereas the City of Brantford had a total of 70.3% (asnoted in Table 9). This trend illustrates the greater degree of diversity in householdtypes, and housing needs within the City, as compared to the County.

Figures 4 and 5 display the various family types in Brant/Brantford and the City ofBrantford for 1996, 1998 and 2000. The number of lone parent families inBrant/Brantford increased from 5,720 in 1996 to 6,360 in 2000, an increase of 11.2%.

These increases place pressure on the local housing markets for affordable rentalhousing, especially for at-risk groups such as the single earner, and lone parentfamilies.

The number of dual earner households has also increased in Brant/Brantford (9.4%)and the City of Brantford (7.5%) in recent years. This increase points to the increasedcapability of many households in the area to support higher-end homes such as singledetached homes. This high-demand market, in turn offers builders little incentive to buildaffordable housing units.

Figure 4: Population by Family Type, Brant/Brantford, 1996-2001


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Figure 5: Population by Family Type, City of Brantford, 1996-2001

Projected Household GrowthAs noted earlier, the demand for dwelling units actually corresponds more directly tohousehold growth than population growth. By identifying the rate and type of householdgrowth, forecasts of housing demand can be prepared.

The discussion accompanying Figure 2 on population projections indicated that theexpected population growth would add approximately 21,600 persons to Brant/Brantfordfrom 2001 to 2021, bringing the total population of the area from 118,485 in 2001 toapproximately 140,093 by 2021. As well, Table 7 demonstrated that average householdsizes have been steadily declining across the area. A more detailed look at these trendsin household size finds that household size declined from an average of 2.67 persons in1986 to 2.58 in 2001, approximately 0.22% per year. Utilizing this factor, which issupported by the continued aging of the population and the continued increase in singleperson households, it can be estimated that household size will decline further, asshown in Figure 6.


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Figure 6: Projected Average Household Size, Brant/Brantford, 2001-2021

33,850 36,13338,633 40,683

43,133

12,410 13,78015,150 16,520

45,06548,543

52,41355,833

59,653

11,215

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Year

House

hold

Projection

City Brant Total

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2001, SHS Inc. Projections*it is to be noted that these populations projections are up to date as of 2001 census, yet are subject to change as a result of theOntario Government Place to Grow* initiative.

Applying these household size projections with previously determined population projections (Figure 2),the anticipated household forecasts are shown in Table 12. As shown, the number of households inBrant/Brantford is expected to grow from 45,050 in 2001 to about 56,718 in 2021, an increase of 11,668,or about 584 households per year. This indicates that there is a need to add an average of about 584new dwellings per year across Brant/Brantford to the year 2021 to keep pace with household growth.

Table 10: Projected Number of Households, Brant/Brantford: 2001 2021

Year Projected PopulationProjected Persons Per

Household*Projected Number

of Households

2001 118,485(actual)

2.58(actual)

45,050(actual)

2006 127,703 2.63 48,543

2011 137,203 2.62 52,413

2016 145,382 2.60 55,833

2021 153,669 2.58 59,653

Source: City of Brantford population projections may be subject to change pending the final approval of thePlaces to Grow Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe area, of which the City of Brantford and BrantCounty are part.

5

*It is to be noted that these populations projections are up to date as of 2001 census, yet are now subject tochange as a result of the Ontario Government Place to Grow* initiative*Note: the projected persons per household is, on average, higher in Brant County, with an average of 2.81 andthe City of Brantford with an average of 2.53 persons per household over this timeframe.

In terms of individual municipalities, Table 7 showed that the historical decline inhousehold size has been most pronounced within the City of Brantford, which saw its

5Population forecasts are being updated as part of the Citys Official Plan Review process. These



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household size decline to 2.5 persons per household in 2001. This is consistent withthe above forecasts and demonstrates that, from a geographical standpoint, thegreatest need for single-person housing (students, seniors, and singles) inBrant/Brantford over the next fifteen years will be in the City of Brantford itself.

ECONOMIC PROFILE

To understand the current and future demand for housing, it is important to understandthe economic profile of the area and how changing economic conditions affect thehousing demand. The following section discusses recent economic trends, and theirimpact on housing in Brant/Brantford.

Labour Force Activity by MunicipalityTable 11 classifies labour force activity by municipality based on the 1996 and 2001census reports. Labour force refers to residents of Brant/Brantford who are employedor seeking employment, regardless of whether they live in or outside of Brant/Branford.It illustrates a total labour force of approximately 62, 065 in 2001 in Brant/Brantford, withonly a slight increase from 1996. Labour force activity in the City of Brantford and Brant

County is consistent with provincial norms.

Table 11: Labour Force Activity by Municipality, 1996 & 2001

1996 2001

Municipality Total % Total %

City of Brantford41,585 72.2% 44, 540 71.7%

Brant County16, 035 27.8% 17,525 28.2%

Brant/Brantford57, 620 100.0% 62, 065

100.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 & 2001 census

Labour Force Activity by Industry and MunicipalityOne of the major findings, as shown in Table 12, is the increase in the proportion ofbusiness services throughout the area. Some 4.2% of Brant/Brantfords populationwas employed in Business Services in 1996. By comparison, this figure increased to14.8% for Brant/Brantford in 2001. This can be mainly attributed to recent growth inemployment at the NCO Call Centre, Charity Casino, and other service activitiesrecently established within the City of Brantford.

Interestingly, some 19.3% of City of Brantford, 16.8% of Brant County and 18.6% ofBrant/Brantfords population were employed in wholesale and retail trade industries in1996. As shown in Table 12, however, the proportion of employment in wholesale andretail trade industries declined significantly in 2001. Some of this decline can beattributed to the decline of the City of Brantfords downtown shopping district after thedemise of the Eaton Centre.


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21

Table 12: Labour Force Activity by Industry, City of Brantford and Brant County, 1996 & 2001

Brant County City of Brantford Brant/Brantford

% of Total % of Total % of Total

Industry 1996 2001 1996 2001 1996 2001

Manufacturing and ConstructionIndustries

29.8% 28.0% 32.5% 32.6% 31.7% 31.3%

Other Services 17.8% 14.4% 8.3% 17.1% 11.0% 16.3%

Wholesale and Retail Trade 16.8% 15.0% 19.3% 15.1% 18.6% 15.1%

Business Services 12.5% 14.4% 14.5% 14.9% 14.0% 14.8%

Health and Education 15.7% 14.4% 17.4% 14.7% 17.0% 14.6%

Finance and Real Estate 2.8% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0%

Agriculture and Other Resource-based Industries

4.1% 9.9% 3.8% 1.4% 3.9% 3.9%

Total 100% 100.0% 100% 100.0% 100% 100.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1996& 2001 CensusOther Services includes the following industry categories:Personal and Laundry Services, Repair and Maintenance, Religious,Grant-Making, Civic, and Professional and Similar Organizations, Private Households. For a complete list see: Statistics Canada:North American Industry Classification (NAICS) 2002

Trends in Household IncomeTable 13 (below) shows that average household incomes in Brant/Brantford in 2001were $48,962. This figure is well below the Ontario average ($55,310), and slightlybelow the Canadian average ($48,999). Interestingly, average household income inBrant/Brantford increased (from 1996-2001) at a similar rate to that of the province(1.8%), while the national increase was at a much lower rate of 0.9%. Despite Canadassmall increase, Brant/Brantford is still behind both national and provincial householdincome average.

Table 13: Comparison of Average Household Income, 1996 & 2001Average Household Income

1996 2001

% Change,1996-2001

Brant/Brantford $48,086 $48,962 1.8%Ontario $54,291 $55,310 1.8%Canada $48 52,5 $48,999 0.9%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 & 2001 Census

Median household incomes are shown in Table 14, and are perhaps morerepresentative of the population as a whole. In 1996, the median household income inBrant/Brantford was $41,367, compared to $45,155 for Ontario and $40,209 for

Canada. Both the median and average incomes illustrate the generally modest levels ofearnings among Brant/Brantford residents. This further signifies the need to placeemphasis on affordable housing production.


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Table 14: Comparison of Median Household Income, 1996 & 2001

Median Household Income

1996 2001

% Change,1996-2001

Brant/Brantford $41,367 $42,221 2.0%

Ontario $45,155 $44,727 -0.9%

Canada$40,209 $39,590 -1.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 & 2001 Census* Median incomes for Brant/Brantford calculated using average of medians of Brant/Brantford respectively (46,254, 38,188)

Trends in Individual IncomeTaxation data was also used to determine median individual incomes, as shown inTable 15. According to the taxation data, in 1991, median individual income was$19,700 in Brant/Brantford and $19,900 in the City of Brantford. Theses figures areslightly below the Ontario median ($21,500), and slightly above the national median of$19,300. In 2001, the City of Brantford median individual income ($30,500) was slightlylower than Brant/Brantford ($30,900).

The 1991 to 1996 period marked a period of negative median income growth nationally(-1.6%) and provincially (-2.3%). It is interesting to note that income growth during thisperiod was actually slightly positive in Brant/Brantford (1.0%) and Brantford (0.5%). Asshown in Table 15, individual income grew rapidly between 1996 and 2001; individualmedian income increased by 12.5% in Brantford, 13.6% in Brant/Brantford, 14.3% inOntario, and 13.7% in Canada between 1996 and 2000.

Table 15: Comparison of Average Individual Income, 1991 - 2001

Median Individual Income

1991 1996 2001 % Change 1991-1996 % Change 1996-2001

City of Brantford 19,900 20,000 22,500 0.5% 12.5%

Brant/Brantford 19,700 19,900 22,600 1.0% 13.6%

Ontario 21,500 21,000 24,000 -2.3% 14.3%

Canada 19,300 19,000 21,600 -1.6% 13.7%

Source: Statistics Canada, Taxation Data, 1991 to 2001


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Trends in Household Income DistributionTable 16 provides further evidence of the modest nature of household incomes inBrant/Brantford. It demonstrates that, as of 1996, almost half of all households inBrant/Brantford (48.2) had annual incomes below $40,000. Additionally, 35.8% hadincomes below $30,000.

Table 16: Household Income, Brant/Brantford, 1996-2001

Income Range 1996 % of Total 2001 % of Total

Under $10,0002,230 5.3% 2,205 4.9%

$10,000 - $19,9996,990 16.5% 5,690 12.6%

$20,000 - $29,9995,930 14.0% 5,390 12.0%

$30,000 - $39,9995,235 12.4% 5,385 12.0%

$40,000 - $49,9994,960 11.7% 4,690 10.4%

$50,000 - $59,9994,410 10.4% 4,285 9.5%

$60,000 - $69,9993,700 8.8% 4,025 8.9%

$70,000 and over8,825 20.9% 13,195 29.4%

All Private Households 42,280 100.0% 44,865 100.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 & 2001 Census

Table 16 shows that the actual number of households earning under $20,000 and$30,000 dropped by approximately 14.3% and 12.3% respectively between 1996 and2001. This indicates a rise in the local economy; although seemingly positive, thoseearning over $60,000 increased 37.4% while those earning $70,000 and over nearlydoubled, increasing a sizeable 49.5%. Thus proving that the gap between low-incomeearners and high-income earners is widening significantly, and that a high proportion ofhouseholds at the lower end of the income spectrum continue to face severeaffordability issues in finding and maintaining housing within Brant/Brantford..

Household Income by MunicipalityTable 17 provides a breakdown of household income by municipality. It shows that theCity of Brantford had the highest proportion of households at the lower end of theincome scale. A total of 32.7% of City of Brantford, and 22% of Brant Countyhouseholds earned under $30,000 in 2001. This table further reinforces the need foraffordable accommodation across the area, especially within the City.

Trends in Median Individual Income DistributionEven though median individual income escalated rapidly between 1996 and 2001, asshown in Table 19, income distributions show a high concentration of individuals at thelower end of the income scale. Table 20 provides further evidence of the modest nature

of individual incomes in Brant/Brantford. 1996 Statistics Canada data show that close to60% of Brant/Brantfords population shows individual income less than $25,000. Thisfigure improved slightly, declining to 54.2% in 2001. Nevertheless, Brant/Brantfordindividual income levels are still lower than the provincial average. Calculations indicatethat in Ontario, 53.3% of median individual incomes were below $25,000 in 1995, whilein 2001, the proportion of individuals in Ontario earning less than $25,000 droppedslightly to 51.5%.


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Table 17: Household Income 2001

City of Brantford Brant County Brant/BrantfordIncome Range

# % # % # %

Under $10,000 2,000 5.9% 205 2.0% 2,205 4.9%

$10,000 - $19,999 4,745 14.0% 945 9.6% 5,690 12.6%

$20,000 - $29,999 4,365 12.8% 1,025 10.4% 5,390 12.0%

$30,000 - $39,999 4,215 12.4% 1,190 12.1% 5,405 12.0%

$40,000 - $49,999 3,600 10.6% 1,090 11.1% 4,690 10.4%

$50,000 - $59,999 3,170 9.3% 1,115 11.4% 4,285 9.5%

$60,000 - $69,999 2,905 8.5% 1,120 11.4% 4,025 8.9%

$70,000 - $79,999 2,120 6.2% 880 9.0% 3,000 6.6%

$80,000 - $89,999 1,885 5.5% 825 8.4% 2,710 6.0%

$90,000 - $99,999 1,355 4.0% 660 6.7% 2,015 4.4%

$100,000 and over 3,480 10.2% 1,990 20.3% 5,470 12.1%

All households33,840

100.00 9,765 100.0% 44,885 100.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census

A further important measure of housing affordability is the incidence of low incomeamong Brant/Brantford residents. Statistics Canada employs a term called LowIncome Cut-offs (LICO) to identify the incidence of low-income families and singlesliving below the poverty line within a community. According to Statistics Canada, low-income cut-offs are based on expenditures (food, clothing and shelter) as a percentageof family income. The Statistics Canada Family Expenditures Survey (FAMEX)

Table 18: Median Individual Income, Brant/Brantford, 1996& 2001

1996 % of Total 2001 % of Total

Less than $5,000 10,180 12.1% 8,900 10.1%

$5,000 - $9,999 9,920 11.7% 9,220 10.4%

$10,000 - $14,999 12,200 14.4% 11,190 12.7%

$15,000 - $19,999 10,050 11.9% 10,350 11.7%

$20,000 - $24,999 8,100 9.6% 8,160 9.2%

Subtotal (up to $24,999) 50,405 59.7% 47,820 54.2%

$25,000 - $ 34,999 13,350 15.8% 13,980 15.8%

$35,000 - $49,999 11,870 14.1% 13,300 15.1%

$50,000 - $74,999 6,750 8.0% 9,810 11.1%

$75,000 - $99,999 1,210 1.4% 1,990 2.3%

$100,000 - $149,999 490 0.6% 830 0.9%

$150,000 - $199,999 140 0.2% 230 0.3%

$200,000 - $249,999 70 0.1% 100 0.1%

$250,000 and over 110 0.1% 190 0.2%

Total 84,440 100.0% 88,250 100.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, Taxation Data, 1996 to 2001


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25

estimated that an average family spends 50% of its income (prior to taxes) on thesenecessities. In order to calculate the low income cut off level, Statistics Canada addedtwenty extra points to this percentage, on the assumption that families or individualsspending 70% of income on food, clothing and shelter would be in strainedcircumstances. This 70% threshold was then converted into a set of low income cutoffs varying with family and community size6. This data is highly informative in relation tothe need for affordable housing, as offered in Table 19 (below).

Table 19 quantifies the rates of low-income families, singles and total population acrossthe municipalities, as well as Ontario. When comparing 2001 data (Table 19) with 1996statistics, interesting trends can be found. In Brant/Brantford, statistics illustrate that asof 2001, a total of 17.9% of families (6, 055), 40.3% of singles (4,445) and 11.1% of theoverall population (13,245) had incomes below $30,000 (poverty line) inBrant/Brantford. In 1996,12.3% of families, 36.4% of singles, and 14.8% of the overallpopulation had incomes below the poverty line in Brant/Brantford. Consequently, since1996, although the percentage of the overall population living in poverty has decreased,the number of families and singles in poverty has increased. This illustrates thewidening gap between the low-income population and high-income population, and alsoindicates the need to give particular attention and supports to LICO families and singles.

In addition, Table 19 also shows differences between communities. The incidence oflow income is particularly significant within the City of Brantford. A total of 20.3% offamilies, 43.6% of singles and 12.8% of the total population had incomes below thepoverty line. By comparison, only 11.9% of families, 24.5% of singles and 6.7% of thetotal population displayed incomes below the poverty line in Brant County. This highlevel of low-income coupled with the lack of affordable housing in Brant/Brantford willundoubtedly place a lot of strain on local service providers. The underlying finding,however, is the fact that there is a major need for affordable housing as shown by thehigh proportion of low-income individuals and families in Brant/Brantford. There hasbeen very limited new purpose built rental accommodations within the City of Brantford

since the early 1990s. Such is also true for Brant County, as will be shown later in thisreport.

6LICO are set according to the proportion of annual family income spend on food, shelter, and clothing. A new base year is setfrom time to time. Base year as of 2001 Census is 1992.


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Table 19: Incidence of Low Income (LICO) -- 2001

FamiliesMunicipality Total Families Low Income Families % of Low Income Families

City of Brantford 24,320 4,940 20.3%Brant County 9,355 1,115 11.9%

Brant/Brantford 33,675 6, 055 17.9%

Ontario3,190,990 Not available Not available

Singles

Municipality Total Singles

Low Income

Singles

% of Low Income

SinglesCity of Brantford 9,105 3,975 43.6%

Brant County 1,915 470 24.5%Brant/Brantford 11,020 4,445 40.3%

Ontario2,101,125 445, 705

21.2%Total Population

MunicipalityTotal Population in

HouseholdsTotal Low Income

Population% of Total Low Income

PopulationCity of Brantford 86,417 11,070 12.8%

Brant County 32,068 2,175 6.7%Brant/Brantford 118,485 13,245 11.1%

Ontario11,202,560 1,611,505

14.4%Source: 2001 Census. Population totals differ slightly from total Census population due to persons living in institutions

Recommendation 2:Increase the supply of housing for singles. The high incidence of low-income inthe single population indicates that more emphasis needs to be placed onproviding smaller affordable units for singles throughout Brant/Brantford. This isparticularly true in the City of Brantford where 38.4% of singles had incomesbelow the poverty line. Currently the most demand is for single accommodation forthose under 60 years of age, however changing demographics will demand that thebalance between seniors and non-seniors one bedroom accommodation be constantlymonitored, and adjusted considering available housing stock.

Household Income Based on Statistics Canada Taxation DataTable 20 shows income levels for various types of households in Brant/Brantford. Largeincreases in income are noted for various family types. In Brant, lone parent familyincomes increased from $19,900 in 1996 to $24,000 in 2000 for a 20.6% increase.Similarly, lone parent family incomes increased by close to 20% in the City of Brantfordand 22.5% in Ontario (Table 21) between 1996 and 2001. During this period, incomefor dual earner families increased by 14.2% in Brant/Brantford, 13.7% in the City ofBrantford, and 13.8% in Ontario. Similarly, single female income increased significantlyby 22% in Brant/Brantford and 21.1% in the City. By comparison, single female incomegrew by only 11.6% in the province. Even though single earner female incomes

showed significant increases between 1996 and 2000, incomes of single male earnersshowed minor growth by comparison. As shown in Table 20 single earner maleincomes increased by only 8.6% in Brant County, 7.9% in the City and 5.8% in theprovince between 1996 and 2001.


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27

Despite these increases, it can be observed that the median incomes of these groups,especially single female earner households ($18,300) in Brant/Brantford are extremelymodest, indicating possible affordability difficulties in relation to housing coststhroughout the area.

Table 20: City of Brantford Median Income by Family Type, 1996 2000

1996 1998 2000 % Change1996 2000

CITY OF BRANTFORD

All families (Husband Wife + LoneParent)

$ 45,600.00 $ 48,500.00 $ 52,100.00 14.3%

Two-parent families $ 51,300.00 $ 54,600.00 $ 59,000.00 15.0%

Lone-parent families $ 19,900.00 $ 21,200.00 $ 24,000.00 20.6%

Non-family persons $ 16,800.00 $ 17,600.00 $ 19,300.00 14.9%

All families (Two-parent + Lone-parent) with employment income

$ 44,400.00 $ 47,700.00 $ 51,200.00 15.3%

Non-family persons with employmentincome

$ 18,200.00 $ 19,400.00 $ 21,200.00 16.5%

Two-parent families

Dual-earner $ 56,400.00 $ 60,400.00 $ 64,400.00 14.2%

Single-earner-male $ 30,500.00 $ 33,500.00 $ 32,900.00 7.9%

Single-earner-female $14,700.00 $16,600.00 $17,800.00 21.1%

Table 21: Ontario Median Income by Family Type, 1996 2000

1996 1998 2000 % Change1996 2000

ONTARIO

All families (Husband Wife + LoneParent)

$ 48,700.00 $ 51,900.00 $ 55,700.00 14.4%

Two-parent families $ 53,800.00 $ 57,500.00 $ 61,800.00 14.9%

Lone-parent families $ 22,200.00 $ 24,500.00 $ 27,200.00 22.5%

Non-family persons $ 18,000.00 $ 19,100.00 $ 20,900.00 16.1%

All families (Two-parent + Lone-parent) with employment income

$ 46,700.00 $ 50,100.00 $ 54,200.00 16.1%

Non-family persons with employmentincome

$ 20,500.00 $ 22,000.00 $ 23,600.00 15.1%

Two-parent families

Dual-earner $ 60,900.00 $ 64,700.00 $ 69,300.00 13.8%

Single-earner-male $ 30,900.00 $ 32,100.00 $ 32,700.00 5.8%

Single-earner-female $17,200.00 $18,400.00 $19,200.00 11.6%


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3: HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSISOverviewThis section provides an understanding of the level and nature of housing supply inBrant/Brantford. It also includes an analysis of housing affordability among localresidents.

Trends In Housing SupplyThe 2001 census data shows the predominance of single detached dwellings inBrant/Brantford. The proportion of different types of housing, however, has remainedconstant between 1991 and 2001. Net gains in absolute terms are noted for allhousing types across Brant/Brantford, except for detached duplex apartments. Thenumber of detached duplex apartments dropped from 1350 in 1991, to 1105 in 2001.

TRENDS IN DWELLING TYPES

Recommendation 3:Address immediate housing needs. The affordability analysis illustrates that thereis a need to examine more immediate options than simply setting new housingsupply targets to address the affordability programs of Brant/Brantfords mostvulnerable residents (included are those forced to use emergency and non-traditional housing options). There are currently about 6, 190 households paying inexcess of 50% of their income on housing in Brant/Brantford. According to the City

of Brantford Housing Department, some applications for social housing are waitingup to five years for one of the 2, 338 rent-geared-to-income rental-housing units.Currently there are just over 1, 300 persons on the waiting list for these units.Further emphasis is required on solutions such as rent supplement programs andadditional affordable housing, in order to enable these households to meetaffordability requirements.

Table 22 shows that single-family detached housing comprised 68.4% of the totalhousing stock of Brant/Brantford in 2001, up from 67.5% in 1991. This represents a netgain of 3,735 units during the ten-year period from 1991 to 2001. Multiple forms ofhousing such as row houses, apartments, semi-detached and duplexes, comprise lessthan 30% of the total housing stock. The number of apartments, in fact, increased by

only 455 units during the 1991 to 2001 period.

7

7City of Brantford Residential Monitoring Update, 2004


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29

Table 22: Occupied Private Dwellings, Brant/Brantford, 1991-2001

1991 1996 2001Housing Type

Total % of total Total % of total Total % of Total

Single Detached 27,085 67.5% 28,655 67.8% 30,820 68.4%

Apartment building, less than fivestoreys

3,755 9.4% 3,450 8.2% 3,805 8.4%

Apartment building, five or morestoreys

3,320 8.3% 3,430 8.1% 3,725 8.3%

Row House 2,235 5.6% 2,525 6.0% 2,920 6.5%

Semi-Detached 2,095 5.2% 2,740 6.5% 2,585 5.7%

Apartment, Det.,duplex 1,350 3.4% 1,380 3.3% 1,105 2.5%

Other single attached 205 0.5% 100 0.2% 80 0.2%

Movable unit 55 0.1% 0 0.0% 5 0.0%

Total occ. private dwellings 40,100 100.0% 42,280 100.0% 45,045 100.0%

Source: City of Brantford Planning Department, 2005 (as in Statistics Canada, 2001 Census)

Dwelling Type by MunicipalityTable 23 shows the breakdown of housing type by municipality in 2001. The tableagain shows that single detached dwellings are the major form of housing in

Brant/Brantford.

Approximately 85% of Brant Countys housing stock is composed of single detachedunits, and therefore does not have a diverse distribution . Discussions with those in thehousing industry indicate that there has not been any new rental housing developmentin Brant County since the late 1980s. This has placed a lot of strain on local residentsat the lower end of the income spectrum and those on fixed incomes in need ofaffordable housing.

The City of Brantford contains a more diverse housing stock. About 16.7% of thehousing stock in the City of Brantford is comprised of apartments, 5.7% semi detached,

6.5%row houses, and 2.5%detached duplexes. The proportion of these housing typesoccupied as rental and ownership housing is shown later in the report (Table 35). Eventhis diversity of dwelling types however, has not met the increased demand foraffordable housing in the area.

In Brant County, only a total of 4.6% of its housing stock is comprised of apartment androw house units. Planning staff suggest that most of these units are condominium unitsand are not suited as affordable rental units. It should be noted that the number ofrental units among these housing types is unknown for Brant County. Statistics Canadaonly produces cross-tabulated data for large metropolitan areas.


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Table 23: Occupied Private Dwellings by Municipality, 2001

City of Brantford Brant County Brant/BrantfordHousing Type

Total % of total Total % of total Total % of total

Single Detached21,235 62.8% 9,440 85.4% 30,820 68.4%

Apartment building, less thanfive storeys

3,335 9.9% 470 4.3% 3,805 8.4%

Apartment building, five or

more storeys 3,620 10.7% 100 0.9% 3,725 8.3%

Row House2,675 7.9% 255 2.3% 2,920 6.5%

Semi-Detached1,970 5.8% 615 5.6% 2,585 5.7%

Apartment, detached duplex950 2.8% 150 1.4% 1,105 2.5%

Other single attached house55 0.2% 20 0.2% 80 0.2%

Movable unit0 0.0% 5 0.05% 5 0.0%

Total Private Households 33,840 100.0% 11,055 100.0% 45,045 100.0%

Source: City of Brantford Planning Department, 2005 (as in Statistics Canada, 2001 Census)

Recommendation 4:Encourage more diverse supply of housing in order to provide the range of unitsneeded to meet the level of demand by those in all (particularly the lower) financialbrackets. This includes housing such as townhouses, duplexes, and rentalapartment units. Despite the growing diversity of demographic needs, andcontinued decline in household size, over 80% of all housing built in the City ofBrantford and Brant County between 2000 and 2004, has been single and semi-detached dwellings. The downtown core and Browfield sites present uniqueopportunities for initiatives in this regard.

Dwellings by TenureFigure 7 shows that the rate of owned dwellings in Brant/Brantford has increased since1986. As the proportion of ownership has increased over time, the proportion of rentershas declined. As shown, 68.1% of Brant/Brantford households live in owner occupieddwellings in 1986. By comparison, in 2001, 71.2% of households lived in owneroccupied dwellings.


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Figure 7: Trends in Housing Tenure in Brant/Brantford, 1986-2001

68.1% 68.3% 69.7%71.2%

31.9% 31.7% 30.3% 28.8%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1986 1991 1996 2001

Proportio

n

ofHousehold

Ow n Rent


Table 24 shows that 71.2% of the households in Brant/Brantford owned their dwellingsin 2001. This is well above the provincial average of 67.8% in 2001. This table alsoshows that the number of owned dwellings increased by 2,595 units between 1996 and2001, while the number of renter occupied dwelling increased by only 135 units duringthis time period. This suggests that very little new rental housing was built between1996 and 2001.

In addition, many renters occupy single detached dwellings that are offered for rent byexisting owners, as well as other forms of non-traditional rental housing such as flatsand life lease dwellings. When real estate markets heat up as they did in the latter partof the decade, some owners of such units may decide to sell the units to owner-occupants or to withdraw accessory apartments from the market.Accordingly, not only

has there been very little expansion in the supply of rental housing, but a considerableportion of the rental stock is not in the form of a permanent supply and could bewithdrawn from the market at any time.


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Table 24: Dwellings by Tenure, Brant/Brantford and Ontario, 1986-2001

Brant/Brantford 1986 Brant/Brantford 1991 Brant/Brantford 1996Tenure

# % # % # %

Own 24,850 68.1% 27,380 68.3% 29,475 69.7%

Rent 11,625 31.9% 12,715 31.7% 12,810 30.3%

Total 36,475 100.0% 40,095 100.0% 42,285 100.0%

Brant/Brantford 2001 Ontario 2001Tenure

# % # %

Own 32,070 71.2% 2,862,300 67.8%

Rent 12,945 28.8% 1,351,365 32.2%

Total 45,015 100.0% 4,219,415 100.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 1991, 1996, 2001 Census

CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK

Condition of housing stock is an important measure to identify any potential problemswith the quality of housing in the area. The following discussion assesses the age, aswell as, the condition of the housing stock in Brant/Brantford.

Age of Housing StockIn 2001 nearly 60% of Brant/Brantfords housing was over 30 years old. This suggeststhat problems associated with aging of dwellings (such as increasing repair andmaintenance costs, increasing energy costs) may be emerging. Brant County has thehighest proportion of older dwellings, with 58.3% of the stock more than 30 years old.By comparison, 57.7% of the City of Brantfords housing stock is more than 30 yearsold.

In addition, it is interesting to note from Table 25 that the housing stock is comparativelyolder than the provincial average, which finds that 49.2% of all dwellings in Ontario werebuilt prior to 1970, compared with 57.7% of Brant/Brantford dwellings. Of particularinterest are the more recent figures, which show that only 24.1% of all dwellings inBrant/Brantford have been built since 1981, compared to 31.9% for Ontario as a whole.

Aging housing stock can result in maintenance problems and high operating costs dueto the lack of energy efficient designs and deterioration of the unit. During times ofrapidly increasing energy costs, it is likely that many households with low-incomes,including seniors, face difficulties because they live on fixed incomes, usually in olderdwellings with high maintenance. As a result, it is important to pay close attention to

identifying such problems and to seek solutions to assist this population living in suchconditions.

On the positive side, older dwellings often tend to be more affordable than newer homesbuilt at higher cost. This is evident in the wide range of resale homes available acrossthe area at relatively affordable prices. Thus, it is important that this stock be


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maintained, especially to help young families looking for affordable home ownershipalternatives.

Table 25: Dwellings by Age and Municipality, 2001

Ontario City of Brantford Brant County

Year

# % # % # %

Before 1946703,410 16.7% 8,495 25.1% 32.8%

1946-1960692,700 16.4% 18.1% 1,405 12.7%

1961-197016.1% 4,895 14.5% 1,410 12.7%

1971-1980795,110 18.8% 6,620 19.6% 14.1%

1981-1990743,770 4,545 13.4% 1,265 11.4%

Constructed

3,630

6,120

680,885

1,560

17.6%

1991-1995286,800 6.8% 1,955 5.8% 775 7.0%

1996-2001316,735 7.5% 1,210 3.6% 1,015 9.2%

Total4,219,410 100.0% 33,840 100.0% 11,060 100.0%

] Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census

Recommendation 5:Ensure older housing stock remains viable. Some 27% of the existinghousing stock in Brant/Brantford was built prior to 1946, with about36% of the housing stock considered to be in need of repair, and about8% needing major repairs. These dwellings play an important role inproviding low-cost accommodation for local residents, and measuresmay need to be considered to address their state of repair. TheResidential Rehabilitation Assistance Program (RRAP) may be one wayfor local residents to secure funds to repair their homes andproperties.

Condition of Permanent DwellingsTable 26 summarizes the condition of the housing stock as reported in the 2001Census. It should be noted that these figures are self-reported from household censusreturns and are not the result of detailed inspections of units. Table 27 shows thatalmost 32.4% of the housing stock in Brant/Brantford is in need of repair, with 7.7%requiring major repair. This is quite comparable to the Ontario figure of 32.9%.

As noted above, such dwellings do play an important role in providing low-costaccommodation for local residents. Nevertheless, the creation of more up-to-date andefficient units, affordable for persons of modest income, is a more desirable solution to

meeting such needs instead of relying heavily on a stock of aging dwellings.


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Table 26: Condition of Dwellings, 2001

Condition of Housing Stock

RegularMaintenance

Only

MinorRepairs

MajorRepairs

Municipality

# % # % # %

City of Brantford 23,110 68.3% 8,195 24.2% 2,545 7.5%

Brant County 7,275 65.8% 2,890 26.1% 890 8.1%

Brant/Brantford 30,480 67.7% 11,125 24.7% 3,450 7.7%

Ontario 2,830,375 67.1% 1,074,740 25.5% 314,300 7.4%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census

NEW HOUSING SUPPLY

City of BrantfordTable 27 shows that the City of Brantford has experienced strong residential

development activity in recent years. From 2000-2004 there were a total of 2,053housing starts in the City of Brantford, or an average of 410.6 housing starts per year.

Of these 2,053 starts, 1,612 units, or 78.5, were single detached units. There were veryfew row rental or apartment rental housing starts in Brantford during this time period.This indicates a large gap in the provision of rental and other forms of affordablehousing in the area. Indeed, there were no condominium apartments started either,which can represent another form of affordable housing.

Table 27: Housing Starts, City of Brantford, 2000-2004

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Single Family 178 221 396 396 421

Duplexes, Semi-detached 0 8 4 6 12

Triplexes 0 0 0 0 0

Fourplexes 0 0 0 0 1

Townhouses 34 6 35 66 60

Apartments 2 18 59 32 26

Conversions 1 2 5 28 36

Total 215255 499 528 556

Source: City of Brantford, Building Department (December, 2004)


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35

Table 28 shows that a total of 1066 new occupancy/completion certificates were issuedover the last three years (2002, 2003, 2004). The total number of households in the Cityof Brantford grew from 32,230 in 2000 to 33,845 in 2004. This represents an increase1,615 new households in the City of Brantford during the five-year period. According tothe census, the number of households increased, on average, by 323 per year.

Applying these findings to the level of new housing development in the area, it is seenthat the demand for new housing outweighs the supply of new development in the Cityon an annual basis. Part of this gap may represent the occupancy of vacant

apartments, as the vacancy rate in the City has decreased steadily over this timeperiod.

In terms of unit types, in 2004, 79% of the units completed in the City were singledwelling unit. Most of these homes are out of the reach of those households working atlower wage jobs or on some form of assistance. In addition, there were no purpose-built rental housing completions in the City of Brantford between 2002 and 2004. Thistrend is clearly contributing to a lack of availability of various forms of affordable housingfor those of low and moderate income.

Table 28: Occupancy/Completion Certificates Issues, City of Brantford, 2002-2004

2002 2003 2004

Single Dwelling Unit 234 275 329

Multiple Dwelling Units (Semi-detached/townhouse/apartment)

36 105 87

Total 270 380 416

Source: City of Brantford Building Department, 2004

In addition to housing starts and completions data, the City of Brantford BuildingDepartment also provided a summary of building permits issued between 1985 and2004 for the City.As shown in Table 29, the majority of permits issued, especially after1992, were for single family and semi-detached dwellings. Since 1993, close to 75% of

permits were issued for single family and semi-detached dwellings throughout the Cityof Brantford. Most importantly, since 1993, only 119 permits were issued for high-density units in the City of Brantford.8

Furthermore, the historical analysis indicates that, since 1985, 8,640 building permitswere issued in the City of Brantford. Of these permits, some 67% were allocated forsing

brantford s&d report march_06

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