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"PREDICTION FACTORS"

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PREDICTION FACTORS

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PREDICTION FACTORS

ABSTRACT

Cathie Fennell Robert Basque Reginald Body

Three summer students working with the National

Parole Service, Moncton, studied the outcome of cases

of all men discharged from Dorchester Penitentiary

and the Westmorland Institution, 1969-1976 inclusive.

All cases were classified as "success" (no further

imprisonment for five years) or "failure" . Following

the Glueck system, sixteen tables of five factors

each were constructed to predict recidivism. Factors

found to discriminate most strongly between success

and failure, in order, are: number of convictions,

age at first penitentiary sentence, type of most

serious conviction, mandatory supervision failures,

sexual offence history, month of birth (:), type

of present conviction, age at release, type of release.

High predictive success and discrimination are demon-

strated for four of the sixteen five-factor tables.

761-1-

•

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We would like to express our thanks and apprec- ,

iation to a number of people. Your help has been inval-

uable and we are indebted to you.

Staff of the National Parole Service, Moncton Staff of the Regional Parole Board, Moncton Maud Hody, Parole Service Officer, National

Parole Service, Moncton Staff of Dorchester Penitentiary and Westmorland

Institution Inmates of Dorchester Penitentiary and Westmorland

Institution RCMP of Halifax, Fredericton and Ottawa Computer Center, Universitde de Moncton

•

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction II Summary of Glueck III Methodology IV Inmate Opinions V Justification of Categories VI Coding Scheme I VII Coding Scheme II VIII Introduction to Tables IX Discussion of Releases (1969 - 1977) X Scoring Tables (1969 - 1977) XI Evaluation Tables (1969 - 1977) XII Discussion of Releases (1969 - 1975) XIII Scoring Tables (1969 - 1975) XIV Evaluation Tables (1969 - 1975) XV Program XVI Cross Tabulation

4,

gl, Appendix

•

I INTRODUCTION

A group of nine students was hired by the Office

of the Solicitor General to carry out several research pro-

jects over a period of four months. Three of these

students were assigned to the study "Prediction Factors",

the efforts of which this paper presents.

"Prediction Factors" deals with offenders in the

Atlantic area. (This does not necessarily mean that the

offenders were born in Eastern Canada, only that they have

previously been or are presently incarcerated in Dorchester

Penitentiary.) It is a study which is to lead to the pre-

diction of success or failure on release from prison, based

on the records of all discharges from Dorchester Penitentiary,

1969 - 1976.

Our purposes then, were:

1. To discover the outcome of all cases of persons dis-

charged from Dorchester Penitentiary.

2. To discover the reasons for success or failure on parole.

3. To discover how successful the correctional services

are.

4. To establish a basis for future predictive studies.

5. To set up prediction tables.

These purposes were looked at in terms of:

A. Possible dynamic factors in recidivism, that is,

factors which can be changed or modified as circum-

stances change.

• - 2 -

B. Cases unique to the Maritimes.

It should be emphasized that the prediction "tables"

we have formulated do not attempt to explain or understand

criminal behavior. Although in some ways they may touch on

the explahations for such behavior, it should be understood

that prediction tables are merely practical devices to

facilitate decision and action. They in no way assume know-

ledge of why non-conforming behavior occurs.

•

•

• 3

•

•

II SUMMARY OF GLUECK

Although our project was a brain-child of one of

the parole service officers in Moncton's National Parole

Service, our source of reference and strength was found in a

study carried out by Sheldon and Eleanor Glueck. Their book,

Predicting Crime and Deliauency, attempts to present an

entire system of predictive devices covering the span of years

from an individual's first court appearance until approximately

age 40. It also includes predictive devices for the early

identification of potential deliquents. Between this study

and ours an obvious discrepancy exists. The GlueCks are

primarily interested in juveniles and their careers as

criminals. Our study, "Prediction Factors", focuses on the

adult offençler, completely ignoring juvenile offenses. (We

also ignored American offenses.) However, the tools used by

both studies are similar and therefore interchangeable. The

effectiveness of predictjon tables does not appear to be a

function of the age of the subjects involved.

The Glueck prediction tables evolved from a former study,

500 Criminal Careers, which showed that tables must be con-

structed so that behavior during each form of peno-correc-

tional treatment could be predicted. The tables were thus

extended not only by covering longer follow-up periods, but

by breaking down the responses and analysing the reaction of

offenders to treatments at various age levels.

•

•

•

- 4 -

Briefly, the construction of prediction tables will be

looked at. The Gluecks have summarized the steps for us,

(P. 31-2).

1. From among highly differentiating factors, five are

selected, taking into consideration whether or not

these'factors are mutually exclusive. If possible, those

selected are relatively independent of one another.

The practical matter of the ease or difficulty of gathering

the data by those who would be charged with the task is

also considered in making the selection. This problem

will be expanded on.

2. The percentages of subclass incidence of violation or mal-

adaption, or recidivism, or delinquency, as the case may be,

are next set down for each of the five selected factors.

3. The next step is to determine the lowest and highest

possible scores by adding ail the smallest percentages

together and also the highest percentages. This procedure

•gives maximum percentile and minimum percentile.

4. Next, score classes are established in equidistant inter-

vals between the minimum and maximum score limits.

5. Then,each case in the group is scored on the five factors

and placed in the appropriate score class and appropriate

behavior category, the number falling into each score class

being converted into a percentage.

6. The resulting distribution of percentages is the basis for

the predictive instrument.

•

7. Finally, the distribution of the percentages is examined

to determine what combinations of the score classes provide

the sharpest predictive instrumentality.

No discussion of prediction and prediction tables

would be valid without some mention of the "uses" of such

tables. The Gluecks have included such a section in their

study:

1. Predictive devices and sentencing..Tables resulting from

extensive research in the area, should ideally enable

judges to individualize in terms of objectified, system-

atized and relevant experience. By the means of the

predictive instruments the judges would have pertinent

organized data in the light of which to discriminate

among several alternatives, and to choose the one most

suited to the particular offender.

2. Predictive devices and parole...Parole, like sentencing,

requires the exercise of sound choice. The prediction

table enables such a choice to be made with a degree of

confidence. It allows for discretion in individualizing

releases on parole and in the revocation of parole. The

tables should be valuable in making decisions as to

whether a prisoner should be released on supervision and

for what length of time that individual should be under

such supervision.

3. Other uses...Prediction devices could also be quite useful

in establishing the true utility of existing punitive or

reformative institutions and techniques.

•

•

•

•

-6 -

III METHODOLOGY

Extensive research, through readings, interviews and

library visits, was carried out so that the best possible

method of "prediction" could be discovered. Other than Glueck,

our approach includes, to some extent, the work of such

experts in the field as Caile and Ohlin. In addition to these

studies we found much valuable information in what the inmates

at Dorchester had to say.

On the basis of this research, we focused on what

we felt to be the most valuable correlations of recidivism.

Unfortunately many excellent factors had to be eliminated

because it was impossible to find them on the prisoner records.

For our pilot sample, ten inmates chosen at random

from Westmorland Institution, were interviewed, and were

asked to comment on a questionnaire (consisting of sixty-

two questions) with respect to style, format and readability.

This aspect of our work was not only helpful in terms of feed-

back, but it also enabled us to come into contact with our

"subjects". Using the constructive criticism offered by the

inmates we decided not to ask any questions if the answers

could be found in the inmate files.

As a result we made up two questionnaires; the first

dealing primarily with questions which could be only answered

by the inmates, such as:

How would you describe your childhood?

• 7

•

The second dealt with cold hard facts accessible to us through

inmate files; this was not seen by the inmates:

Date of first adult committal to penitentiary.

Permission was obtained from Gary Mills, Supervisor

of Classification, Dorchester Penitentiary, to distribute the

new questionnaire (consisting of twenty-three questions) to

the inmates of Dorchester and, on the basis of this permission,

the Visiting and Correspondence Department kindly passed out

approximately three hundred and fifty.

As a pilot for our second questionnaire, the year

1972 was chosen to determine the accessibility of such things

as: . FPS sheets, status of the file, personal information and

or course, the file itself. This year was chosen for a

variety of reasons. This proved to be the first year in which

a large sample of cases considered as Mandatory Supervision

were available. This choice obviously tests the effects

of mandatory supervision. As well, success in our study -

as in most others - is defined by the presence of law

abiding behavior for a period of five years or more, and no

incarcerations past the date of release. As this study

was carried out in 1977, 1972 proved to be the best year to

work with. Our final reason for this choice centers on the

fact that 1972 was the last year before the five year

archiving date.

•

• 8

Finally, a coding scheme was devised that would best

express and compress the information gathered from the files,

Room has been made in this code to include a wide variety

and range of responses. (II

(1) Criteria for selection:

1. Smallest number of separate sources to be checked on. 2. All releases and dates were required to be able to

determine "success" or"failure." 3. Dates of birth were required for the ages of the inmates

at the various convictions and releases. 4. FPS records for dates and types of offences. 5. No use of juvenile records.

With all these factors taken into account, we used

release sheets which specified inmate name, FPS number, type

of release, and date of release. We obtained, from the

inmate card file, date of birth and other personal information.

Next FPA records were sent for. This procedure used only

three references, yet it satisfied all the criteria.

Due to the amount of time and work involved we . did

not record more personal information than could be found in

the above three references.

•

•

•

- 9 -

IV INMATE OPINIONS

The response rate to our questionnaire, distributed to both

Westmorland Institution and Dorchester Penitentiary was extremely

low - approximately 17%. HoweVer, we feel that those inmates who

took the time to answer our questions did so quite well. Several

suggestions for improvement inside the prison system were supplied.

Most centered on the training offered in prison.

"Training in all of the trades should be part of the

prison's trade programs."

"There should be more trades in here. There's only a few

and sometimes you have to wait months to get into one."

"The training in prisons, there is now, should be up-

graded on a larger scale, with additional trades. I feel

that inmates have to choose from mostly labor trades, there

should be more skilled jobs like Electronics, business

fields - the problem of many inmates is that they may never

fall into such opportunities after getting out."

"Jobs which should be taught are those of high potentiality,

not something that necessitates journeymen papers."

"There should be various types of jobs and training in

prison...an inmate doing something he does not like isn't

going to help him very much."

"As far as the training goes in these Places it really doesn't

make much difference, as 9 out of 10 guys who take courses

in here never get a job at that kind of work on the street."

•

•

•

- 10 -

Though they were few and far between, some inmates felt

the training offered to them is adequate as it now stands.

"I find the present jobs and training here o-kay."

"I think that the training offered in prison is now

sufficient."

Most felt that training offered in prison - whether

adequate or not - is important.

"Yes, I feel that the education programs are very

important in prison and more attention should be

directed in this area by prison officials."

(the training)..."will also enable him to form a

work pattern which he can adapt to on the street."

"Yes, it's important, especially the vocational

aspect, because a trade can aid an ex-inmate to

secure a job more readily."

Clearly, with such similar responses coming from a cross-

section of inmates, a point is being made - and it is one that

should be listened to. The inmates are not criticizing the

system, rather they are critical of what the system has to offer

with respect to Dorchester Penitentiary and its training programs.

One inmate said that he wasn't ripping apart the system - it

was just that he couldn't understand how other prisons can

offer such good trades.

"The vocational training carried out in Springhill is

second to none in my estimation."

• - 11 -

As well, in most prisons the work conditions are totally

dissimilar from those outside - the inmates do not have to cope

with the normal problems of finding a job, showing responsibility

at work, and working a full day.

We feel that the training (vocational, educational and

social) offered in prison is one of the most vital factors to

be considered when dealing with recidivism. Its impact on the

rate of repeaters could be phenonemal if exploited in the proper

way. The inmates themselves have formed many good, sound

ideas on the subject and are quite willing to discuss them.

Perhaps it is time they were listened to.

•

•

•

- 12 -

V JUSTIFICATION OF THE PREDICTIVE CATEGORIES

In starting this project we had several objectives;

the primary one being the creation of a usable predictive

device. To make sure that this goal was achieved we used

"tried and true" predictive factors such as escape history,

number of previous convictions and education level. Another

objective was to try new factors to check on unique Maritime

conditions and possibly find better predictive factors. Some

of these new factors were the months of various events (birth,

convictions) and inmate opinions. In these, we believe that

we were successful. We also tried to arrange the categories

in a continuous manner to enable linear regression analysis

to be performed on them.

Looking over the factors which had been compiled, we

decided on two sets of tables. One was the inmate's personal

profile and the other, his criminal history. The former could

be completed only on "present" inmates and, therefore, we

have simply done the survey. Follow-up studies will have to

be carried out to determine the success or failure of these

inmates. We now turn to the criminal history profile.

FPS NUMBER

The main reason for including this is for deletion

purposes. For example, if an inmate has had five releases,

the tables will not be biased in his direction.

•

•

•

•

- 13 -

Month of Birth

It was pointed out that signs of the Zodiac might have

an effect on inmates' success rate. Month of birth was added

for our own interest and its relation to success is surprising.

Year of Birth

This is used in computing age at various events (first

conviction, release). This factor has been used in all pre-

dictive studies.

Month of Release

This is a new factor. We tried to determine whether

the season of release had any effect on recidivism. Here

again, the results are interesting.

Year of Release

This was needed to check on "age hump" to see if at

certain ages, an inmate is more likely to succeed.

Status

We are here concerned with expiry, parole, mandatory

supervision, and "other", dealing only with releases. This

section also shows the relative effectiveness of the first

three. "Other" is release by death or court order. Perhaps

if the sample were larger, we would have been able to predict

the type of inmate likely to die in prison.

Month of Birth, Month of Release

Due to the unusual results obtained with these two

factors, we decided to explore them further. Using the mean-

square contingency coefficient it was determined (after the

tables had been set up) that they had an appreciable to

•

•

- 14 -

considerable relation to the case outcome.

Year of (1) first adult conviction (2) first adult commission to institution and (3) first adult commission to penitentiary.

These are used in various predictive studies (actually

age at the various events). But we found that in certain cases

the date of the event was more important than the age at which

it occurred.

Type of Present Conviction and Most Serious Conviction.

Again, these factors are used in all studies. We used

Justin Ciale's list of offences and added ten of our own.

Total Number of Convictions

Unlike most studies, which consider a court sentencing

as one conviction, we - no matter how many charges there are -

count every conviction or charge on the FPS sheet. This is

our most accurate predictive device.

Total Aggregate Sentence

This is another new category. We made a cumulative

total of all suspended sentences and concurrent sentences.

See "aggregate sentence" for time actually served.

Violent and Sexual Offence History

We tried to differentiate between somebody who has a

history of minor violent and sexual offences (we just say "yes"

if he has the history) and somebody who has major violent or

sexual offences (here we record the actual number). The results

are noteworthy. •

•

•

- 15 -

Escape Record

A simple "yes" or "no" answer sufficed. We found some

correlation.

Number of Paroles Granted

As this study is supervised by the National Parole Service

we inserted this category for their . benefit.

Number of Successful Paroles

We calculate this by the ratio of paroles granted to

paroles successful; the men who never received parole are

classed "other."

M. S. Forfeitures

As a predictive factor this fails. We included this

for the same reason as parole analysis. Our sample is about

50% M.S.

Accomplices

Justin Ciale included this factor and since in our test

sample (1972) it was easy to find, we included it also. Unfor-

tunately the information was inaccessible for the remaining

years. So despite the fact that it has considerable bearing on

the outcome of the case, the table is unreliable. The fact of

having had accomplices appears to lessen the chances for success.

Place of Birth

Newfoundlanders have a 45% success rate whereas Nova

Scotians have a 30% success rate.

Marital Status

This refers to the marital status on the first admission

to Dorchester. It was chosen because it was among the most

• - 16 -

easily obtained personal information.

Religion

This was an unusual factor. We did a test run when

we had 700 cards completed. We found that Catholics had

a 29% success rate and those people adhering to the United

Church had a 41% success rate. The difference was not as

significant when the sample size was increased.

Aggregate Sentence

This is the actual time sentenced. As a predictive

factor it is less effective than the total aggregate sentence.

Number of Penitentiary Terms

Again our results differ from the norm. This category

has only a slight correlation with success.

Outcome (Status)

"Success, Failure, Other." Success is defined as no

further incarcerations. That is, if a person receives a two

year suspended sentence he succeeds, and if he receives a

one-day jail sentence he fails. This definition provides a

dividing line. We have a second set of tables for releases,

1969 - 74 in which the success period is 3 or more years.

Releases in '75, '76 don't have the proper accuracy because

of brief time elapsed.

Age at Various Releases

This was computed from the date of bifth and dates of

events.

gl, No tables were made up from Questionnaire I. This can

be done with a follow-up study.

•

(1) no schoda (2) 1 - 4 (3) 5 - 9

(4) 10 - 12 (5) above 12 (6) other

(1) yes (2) no (3) other

(4) yes, educational (5) yes, vocational (6) no answer or N/A

(1) Mother, yes (2) Father, yes (30 yes (4) both

othet (d) no (7) no answer

• (1) married (2) single (3) common-law (4) divorced

(5) separated (5) widowed (7) other

- 17 - • VI CODING SCHEME I

0. FPS number (added after interview) L. Name 2. What was the last grade you completed in school ?

3. Do you think that the training offered in prison is important ?

4. Which of your parents went farthest in school ?

•

Mâther Father (1) 0 - 6 (6) 0 - 6 (2) 7 - 9 (7) 7 - 9 (3) 10 - 12 (8) 10 - 12 (4) above 12 (9) above 12 (5) other (10) other

5. What do your parents,generally make a year ?

(11) no school, not known, or N/A

(1) 0 - $4000 (4) over $12,000 (2) $4000 - 8000 (5) other f3) $8000 - 12,000

6. Did at least one of your parents have a steady job ?

7. Do you have a steady job when not in prison ?

(1) yes (2) no (3) occasionally

8. Are you ...

(4) no answer (5) not out of prison enough (6) other

(1) none (2)1 - 3

(3) over 3 (4) other

(1) yes (2) no

(3) occasionally (4) other, N/A

(1) yes (2) no

(3) occasionally (4) other

(1) undesirable (2) tough man (3) no label

(4) other (5) did not answer

- 18 -

gl, 9. How many dependants do you have ?

10. Do you enjoy seeing your children ?

11. Are you able to see your children ?

12. How would you describe the discipline you received as a child ?

(1) very strict (2) strict (3) firm, but kind

13. Was your childhood ...

(1) very happy (2) happy (3 ): nice

(4) showed little concern (5) let you do what you want (6) other

(4) poor (5) disastrous (6) other

14. What kinds of jobs and training should there be in prison ?

(1) more, and more relevant (5) other (2) automechanics (6) did not answer (3) vocational (7) more geared to inmates' needs for (4) theoretical life on the outside

(8) fine as it is

15. Do you think that you will be labeled when you leave prison ? How ?

16. Do you have hobbies and pastimes inside and outside prison ?

(1) arts and crafts (2) hunting, fishing, etc. (3) cards, pool (4) reading, cultural

(5) physical sports (6) other (7) no answer (8) no hobbies

17. Do you keep in touch with people on the outside ?

• (1) a lot (2) a fair amount (3) some

(4) none (5) other (6) did not answer

(1) none (2) few (3) most

(4) all (5) did not answer

(1) none (2) 1 - 3 (3) 4 - 6 (4) 7 - 10

(5) 11 or more (6) other, N/A (7) did not answer

• (1) none (2) few (3) most (4) all

(5) other, N/A (6) did not answer

(1) none (2) 1 - 5 (3) 6 - 10

(4) 11 - 25 (5) other (6) did not answer

- 19 -

18. Do you feel that you have an alcohol and/or drug problem ?

(1) yes 2) no (3) yes, alcohol (4) yes, drugs

(5) no, but in fact does (6) other (7) did once, but no more (8) no answer

19. How many of your offences were committed under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs ?

20. How many T.A.'s have you applied for while in prison ?

21. How many of these have been successful ?

22. How many charges have you had against you while in prison ?

23. How do you feel about your present conviction ?

(1) feel sorry you were caught (2) feel sorry you committed it (3) don't care at all (4) sentence too harsh

(5) other 4) did not answer (7) glad to be caught, helped

more than hurt

•

(1) expired (2) mandatory (3) paroled

(4) Westmorland (5) Dorchester (6) other

- 20 -

VII CODING SCHEME 11

O. FPS number 1. Month of birth 2. Year of birth 3. Month of release (if applicable) 4. Year of release 5. Status...

•

6. Month of first adult conviction 7. Year of first adult conviction 8. Month of first adult commission to an institution 9. Year of first adult commission to an institution 10. Month of first adult commission to penitentiary 11. Year of first adult commission to penitentiary 12. Type of present conviction...

(1) rape and attempted rape (2) indecent assault on female (3) indecent assault on male (4) other sexual offences (5) assaults (n»ot indecent) and woundings (6) robbery and attempted robbery (7) breaking and entering, breaking and entering and theft (8) escape and prison breach (9) theft of motor behicle

(10) theft - other than motor vehicle (11) possession of stolen goods (12) frauds (13) drug offences (14) habitual criminal (15) dangerous sexual offender (16) offensive weapons (17) contributing to juvenile delinquency (18) other (19) murder, manslaughter (20) Kidnapping (21) hostage taking (22) contempt of court (23) indignity to a dead body (24) mischief (25) arson (26) criminal negligence (27) conspiracy (28) perjury (29) extortion

• - 21 -

13. Type of most serious conviction...

(1) rape and attempted rape (2) indecent assault on female (3) indecent assault on male (4) other sexual offences (5) assaults (not indecent) and woundings (6) robbery and armed robbery (7) breaking and entering, breaking and entering and theft (8) escape and prison breach (9) theft of motor vehicle (10) theft other than motor vehicle (11) possession of stolen goods (12) frauds (13) drug offences (14) habitual criminal (15) dangerous sexual offender (16) offensive weapons (17) contributing to juvenile delinquency (18) other (19) murder, manslaughter (20) kidnapping (21) hostage taking (22) contempt of court (23) indignity to a dead body (24) mischief (25) arson (26) criminal negligence (27) conspiracy (28) perjury (29) extortion

14. Total number of convictions...

•

(1) 1 - 3 (2) 4 - 6 (3) 7 - 10

15. Total aggregate sentence...

(1) less than two years (2) 2 - 5 yrs. (3) 6 - 10 yrs.

16. Violent offences...

(1) no (2) yes (3) yes, 1 - 3 offences

17. Sexual offences...

(1) no (2) yes

(4) 11 - 15 (5) 15 and over (6) 50 and over

(4) 11 - 15 yrs. (5) over 15 yrs. (6) 79 yrs. to life

(4) yes, over 3 (5) other

(3) yes, 1 - 3 offences (4) yes, over .3

(1) none (2) few (3) most

(4) all (5) other

(1) none (2) 1 - 3 (3) 4 - 6

(4) 7 or more (5) other

(1) Nfld. (2) N.S. (3) N.B. (4) P.E.I. (5) Que. (6) Ont. (7) Man.

(8) Sask. (9)Alb. (10)B.C. (11) N.W.T. (12)U.S.A. (13)U.K. (14) ôther

(1) single (2) widowed (3) separated (4) divorced

(5) common-law (6)married (7) other

- 22 -

11› 18. Escape record...

(1) yes (2) no (3) other

19. Number of paroles granted... (1) none (2) 1 - 3 (3) 4 - 6

(4) 7 or more (5) other

20. Number of successful paroles...

21. Number of mandatory supervision forfeitures or revocations...

• 22. Number of accomplices in present offence...

(1) yes (4) yes, 2 - 3 (2) no (5) yes, over 3 (3) yes, 1 (6) other

23. Place of birth...

24. Marital status...

25. Religion...

(1) Baptist (2) R.C. (3) Protestant, United

(4)Anglican (5) none (6) other

•

(1) 0 (2) 1 (3) 2 (4) 3

(5) 4 (6) 5 and over (7) other

28. Status...

• - 23 -

26. Aggregate sentence...actual time inside...

(1) under two years (2) 2 - 5 (3) 6 - 10 (4) 11 - 15

(5) 16 - 49 (6) life (7) other

27. Number of sentences in excess of two years...

(1) success (2) failure (3) other

•

•

- 24 -

•

•

VIII INTRODUCTION TO TABLES

We willJimit our examples to the tables for releases in

the period 1969 - 1975. This is because they are more accurate

(as will be shown later). The tables used are SCORING TABLES

(1969 - 1975) and EVALUATION TABLES (1969 - 1975).

SCORING

The table is made up of two columns. In the first one is

the percentage success multiplied by 10. Therefore, to know

the percentage success of Catholics one looks up the Religion

table and divides the number in the success column by 10. The

relationship between a factor and recidivism is indicated by

the difference in the maximum percentile and the minimum percen-

tile. These are computed only for the subranges with 50 or

more total cases. Those subranges with 10 - 50 cases are also

included in the tables. The correlation determined by the

mean-square contingency coefficient (see Five Hundred Delinquent

Women p. 287) is as follows:

Maximum difference in Percentiles Between Category of a Factor MEL.PITEEY_PS1?Ê21..(11171Ëm

Less than 40 40 - 70 70 - 150 150 - 260 260 and over

Degree of Relationship Indicated Between the Factor and Recidivism

None Slight Appreciable Considerable High

•

Even if, let us say, year of birth and age at release

both have a 'High' degree of relationship we cannot use both

as they are relate to each other (are not independent variables.)

We did checks with the table of releases 1969 - 1977 to

show what accuracy is to be expected. In the interest of a

more exact table we did not do this for the table of releases

1969 - 1975. These would be more accurate since the success

•

•

- 25 -

period is greater.

The following is a list of the maximum percent differ-

ences in the categories of 1969 - 1975 releases.

CATEGORY MAXIMUM % DIFFERENCE x 10

Month of Birth 198 Year of Birth 142 Month of Release 172 Year of Release 36 Type of Release 146 Month of 1st Conv. 197 Year of 1st Conv. 122 Month of 1st Comm. 135 Year of 1st Comm. 157 Month of 1st Pen , Sent. 131 Year of 1st Pen. Sent. 93 Type of Pres. Cony. 193 Type of Ser. Conv. 223 Number of Cony. 314 Total Agg, Sent. 55 Violent History 63 Sexual History 201 Escape History 104 Number of Paroles 5 Successful Paroles 93 M.S. Failures 213 Accomplices 0 Place of Birth 105 Marital Status 94 Religion 49 Agg. Sent 49 Pen. Terms 42 Outcome 1000 Age at Release 165 Age at 1st Conv. 156 Age at 1st Comm. 142 Age at 1st Pen. Sent 228

To make the most accurate evaluation table, one picks

the five categories with the highest difference. This implies

that number of convictions (314), Age at 1st Pen. Sent. (228)

Type Ser. Cony. (223), M.S. Failures (213), Sexual History (201)

would be in the most accurate table. (Table 1 (1964-1975))

•

•

- 26 -

(Actually we use Type Pres. Conv. (193) instead of M.S.

failures because of inaccuracies in data.) Only the sub-

categories with more than fifty cases were used to compute

the maximum percent differences. We then add the lowest and

highest scores from the five categories and construct ten

intervals. (See EVALUATION TABLES 1969 - 1975 - first table)

The same sample that was used to set up the table is used to

compute the individual inmate's score. As an example, David

is in Dorchester Penitentiary on his 2nd conviction. The

first occurred when he was 21 for rape and the second was

assault. Checking category type of Pres. Conv, the class

assault we see his score is 300. Looking up rape as his most

serious conviction we see that only 21 cases are in the subclass.

We use the 380 nonetheless. (If, however, the sub-class isn't

listed we take the average of the maximum and minimum scores

in the category). The remaining scores are 528, 313 and 263.

(The upper bound in the year category is not inclusive.)

Adding, we get 1784, which is in the eight interval. (If the

total is above the highest or below the lowest, we put it in

the closest interval.)

This is done with all the inmates and the percentage of

successes and number of cases in each interval is computed,

giving the table as shown. If we wish to decrease the inter-

vals to, let us say, three we do the following:

1. Choose the new intervals.

•

• - 27 -

901 to 1131 1131 to 1706 1706 to 2051

RANGE % SUCC

12% 25.4% 63.3

# CASES

124 775 109

2. Compute new % succ = (# Cases, + g Cases 2 +...) (% Succ. + # Cases, +...)

new # Cases = (#Cases, + # Cases 2 +..„)

Let the new intervals be:

901 to 1131 1131 to 1706 1706 to 2051

The new table would be:

•

•

This concludes the discussion on setting up the scoring

and evaluation tables. The validation of them is left to the

section on DISCUSSION OF RELEASES (1969 - 1977). We will now

discuss their use.

Andy Levin is a notorious fraudman and bank robber. He

has bank robbery as his most serious offence (271), fraud as

present offence (238), was convicted 43 times (228), no sexual

offences (259), and was 17 when he first went to prison (179).

Parole officer Peg John-Stone adds these and finds that Andy

falls into the 1131 to 1246 range which has a 19.1% success

rate. She will be working overtime to keep Andy on the street.

One problem in chosing the categories (which will be

illustrated later) is that one factor might not be theoretically

as important as another (if it has smaller maximum precent

difference). This is checked by trial and error. The four

primary tables were made up of categories of steadily decreasing

correlation.

•

•

- 28 -

IX DISCUSSION OF RELEASES (1969 - 1977)

The releases in 1975 - 1977 have been out less than

21/2 years. This means that these releases are inordinately

successful. Since these releases would not produce accurate

tables we decided to demonstrate a validity test for the

tables. One half of the data is used to set up the table as

is described in the last section. (The first table on each

page of EVALUATION TABLES (1969 - 1977) are what is obtained.)

The second half of the data is fed through and outputed in the

same intervals as the first half. (These are the last tables

on the pages). A reason for inaccuracy is that there are so

few cases. This means that the maximum and Minimum percentages

are skewed. Comparing the percentages in the original evaluation

table and the check evaluation table we determine the accuracy.

Looking at tables one and two we see that there is a fair

correlation between percent success for each of the intervals

and hence the table is a fairly good predictive device.

Looking at tables five and six we see that not only are the

percent successes for the intervals different but they do not

go from low to high within the tables.

For a discussion of the factors see Sec. XII.

• - 29 -

X SCORING TABLES (1969 - 1977)

Note that subcategories with fewer than ten cases are

not printed in the scoring tables; those with fewer than

fifty cases are not used in the computation of maximum percent

difference.

•

DE-c- MAAImUM PERCENT SUCCESS I -531I MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 241

( ApP!1_ ( 4m ( 45 t T 7 7 T

i 3 i 21 i ( MAY 33

( 113 ( îl (

( 291 C 48 ( T r r ( 241 C-51) (

T. T T T ( SEPTEMBER ( 326 ( 49 1 7' T T t. ( OCTOBER ( 33 ( 62 ( 7 7 7 1 ( NOVEMFR ( 387 ( 31 ( 7 T T 7

(_

( 1UNF'

( JULY

AUIJUbf

e“, 0

(%SuCC.(#CASES tyr milug

T T T I ( JANUARY ( 361 ( 47 ( t 1 r Z ( FEPRUARY --t 265 C 49 ( 7 T T X ( MARCH C 2ù4 1 49 ( . T 7 T t

MAXIMUF PERCENT DIFEUNCE = 9 7

(7.SUCC.(eASES •

T T T t ( 21 - 24 ( 454 ( 11 C

-T ( 27 - 30 ( 521 1 23 ( t T t t ( 30 - 33 ( 352 ( 3A ( 1 • - 7 T T ( 33 - 3 • ( 23 , 1 ( 26 ( 7 i T - T ( 36 - 39 ( 39 1. ( 41 (

7 T T ( 39 - 4?

{ "5 i " f 7 1 42 - 45 1 276 1 76 (

YEAR OF BIRTH

KTUT4TP7r-PFRCENT SUCCESS MINIMUY PERCENT SUCCESS = 252

MAXImei PERCENT DIFERENCE = 61

F4T--=-47------î 3. .--,37----T-76 { ( /- - T

-C

( 4q - 51

f 51 - 54 ( ?89 ( 83 ( T t t t

( 344 ( 29 (

•

t;.CNTH OF RELEASE (ZS.UCC.UCASES

( JANUARY ( 288 ( 45 ( 1 T t 1 ( FEOFFITEY f-mr--f---11-T- T. 1 MARCH i 41L. i _IL4 t 1 APRIL C 346 ( 5?. ( T T t T 1 MAY ( 246 ( 65 ( r r r r ( JUNt t 5›.." t 60-17- T T t 1' 1 JULY ( 346 1 49 f 1. 1 T I .( AUnUST -- '_(( 341 f eA_i "t ( SEPTEMBER › 1 Ifen_i___Ini t

COCTOBER ( e98, ( 5f ( T r r r f NOVEMBER ( 272 ( :55 ( T 1 r r ( DECEMBER ' C 322 - 1 59 f

MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS E-357 MINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 246

1-----MWTIMIW-PERCEN1 DIFERENcE-7=7-1-0-4

CZ-SIIIT7C-errST-S YEAR OF RELEASE

1 69 - 7? 1 Z93 1 259 1

MONTH OF 1ST COMVICTION

( JANUARY

(ZSUCC.(#CASES

( 377 ( 45 (

{2.22_4___Ini (?6 ( 49 ( T — T. 7 ( 224 ( 58 c r T r ( 285 ( 56 ( r 1 Z ( - 400 ( 5Q t T T r ( 367 ( A,9 ( T ' 1 - • - 1 ( 295 t 71 ( T T T ( 287 ( 66 ( r T r ( 436 ( 55 ( T T 1 ( 3'J 0 ( 60 (

( FEPRUAaY_

( MARCH

( APRIL

( MAY

( JUPE

C JULY

( AUf;UST 7 -

( SEPTFMnER

( OCTOBER

( NOVEMDER

( Z2 — 75 ( P63 ( ZA3 T — Z T

( 57 ( 136 ( MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = - 5T,( - MININLM PFRCENT SUCCESS = 263

MAXIMIP' PERCENT DIFERENCE = 244

(1SUCC.(#CASES TYPF- 01- RELA-Abb (SIAIUS;

T r t r ( EXPIREY ( 773 ( 20 ( T T T T ( re.s. r 344 t 250 ( T T T T ( PAPOLE ( 18'1 ( 11 ( 7 I 1 —T ( u!H. e5 ( 16 c

MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 273

MAXPeUY PERCENT DIFFPENCE = 1(.1 7

YFAP OF 1ST CONVTCTION (Z SUCC. C# CASES

MONTH OF 1ST COMMITAL (% SU CC.(4 C A S ES

•

PFRCENT SUCCESS z-----ra -U m I reUfl PC RCENT SUCCESS = ??4

"°i4YIMHm. PERCENT DIFFRENCE = 212

MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS =---- P)7 mINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 269

( 45 — 4.'c, ( T T --T— —T C if — 51 C 25C ( 70 ( T- r t r ( 51 —54 " ( Z85 ( 21 ( r r f t ( 54 — 57 C 4?8 1 35 ( C 57 — 6u C 281 C 71 t T T T r ( 60 — 63 ( 333 ( 75 ( t T T T ( 63 — 66 ' (323 ( 1Q5 ( "( 7 7 T ( 66 — 69 ( 269 ( 130 ( T. 7 7 T

mr—f _., , ( 7e; — 75 ( ,?,8 ( 4Z (

MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 91

2. r r : JANUARY ( 454 ( 44 ( T. T T T ( FEPRUARY ( '82 ( 46 (

T T ( MARCH ( 319 ( 47 ( T T T T ( APRIL T

4 1 85 i 54 i

( MAY -(.

4, 245

1 1UNE 1

MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS

( ( JULY ( Ale (----

( 38 ( 49 ( T T T T ( AUGuST ( 378 ( 66 ( t T t T ( SEPTEMBER ( OCTOBER

( NOVEMBER

( .DELEmBER MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 185


( 327 ( 61 ( T Z T

( 408 t 49 ( 1--1"----1-

{ 2 39 ( 71 C

t t

USUCC.(#CA S ES YFAR OF 11T (70MMl1AL

T T T t ( 45 -48 ( 163 ( 11 ( r r r r U48 - - -51 ---------- ( 227 - ( 72. ( . r r r r ( 51 -1+ (?72 ( 2Z ( T T - Z ( 54 - 5( ( 4Y1 ( a-i (

T T T T ( 57 - 60 ( 351 .i 54 t T I -T ( 60 - 63 ----- - ' ( 263 ( 76 ( T T T T ( 63 - 66 ( 387 ( 98 ( T T T T ( 6o T 7 1 ( 69 - 72 (

i 4 11__i___U.A . = -ZiT = 263

mAXIMUM PeRCENI DIFERENCE = 14?i

(ZSUIC.tRLASES moNTu OF MT PFN. TERm

( JANuARy ( 285 ( 49 (

•


( ( ( FEr.RUARY ge 47 (

( .f. 34 (

T r r ( MARCH 34'', ( 50 ( r r r r ( APRIL ( 315 ( 5Z ( 1 T T T ( MAY ( 3 00 c 60 ( t T T T ( JUNE ( 326 C 46 ( T T T T

_ _. f ei,i---114 r ( AUcUST paL.4-51-i T ( SEPTEMBER ( 354 ( 6a( r r r r ( OCTOBER { 3â8 i 72 i T ( NOVEMBER.

-.

{ 2,7.? i 54 i T ( DECEMBER ( -469 1 46 I = -3R3 = 277

MAXIMUM PERCENT D/FERENCE = 11 1

(ZSUfC.(#CASES YrAP OF 1ST PEN. TERM

T T T T ( 4 5i - 51

_ ( 2.çc5 ( 11 (

T. Z T -1 ( 51 - 54 ( 218 ( 21 ( T T T T

MAxIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS

( 54 - 57 ( 55M ( 13 ( T 7 Z Z ( 57 - 60 ( 323 ( 34 ( r T Z Z ( 60 -63--- ( 318 - ( 59 ( r r r r ( 63 - 66 (?95 C 71 C T T Z T ( 66 - 69 ( 3u(1 ( 140 ( T T T T ( 69 - *72 ( 294 ( 146 ( T Z T T ( 72 - 72 ( 3 90 1 iln( = -3971 = 294

m-TyT1'1u17, PEP,Ct-N1 = Yo

ESCAPE 10 ( -r

C4S U CC .( #CAS E S TYPE OF PPFS. CONVICTION

1 T 7 7 1 IA-FEMALE ( ?66 ( 15 C T -( ( ASSULTS ( 420 ( 40 ( T T t 1 ( ROBBERY (3i14 C 69 ( r

_ r __ r T

( 6E4-T ( 313 ( 187 ( 1 1 T 1 ( ESCAPE ( 213 .ç, 64 '(

% 1 7 1 . ( THFFT-MV ( 11 ( 5 ( 1 7 7 T ( ThEFT-OTH T ( POSS. S.G. ( 315 ( 38 ( T r r r ( FRAUDS ( 339 C 53 ( 1 1 1 1 ( DRUt'S ( 714 ( 14 ( 1 1 T. 1. ( OFF. WEP. i 25J _i 16 i 7 ( HOMOC1DE ‘.. T T ( ARSON ( 3' ) 7 ( 13 (

S _

--777c1MU -PE-eC-ENT t MINImU''" PERCENT SUCCESS = 2u3

MAxIMie PERCENT DIFERENCE = 136

TYPE OF SER, CONVICTION T 1' T r C RAPE ( 363 ( 11 ( Z c T T

( 272 C 22 C 1 11 ( 818 4 11 4 ( 3943_8 *('

7 10a ( 794 i (

7

(7.SUCC.(eCASES

1A-FEmeL-E-

( SEYUAL-OTH

( ASSULTS 7 ( _ ROBBERY T

7

gl› ( IHI.F1-MV T ( THLFT-OTH

—1-371111k( .5'. ( T WT T ( 212 ( 33 ( •

T T 7 ( ( POF,S. s.n. C333 ( rt ( ( T 7 7 ( FRAUDS ( 310 ( 40 ( 7 ( / T ( Dxlir, ( PUU t 111 ( 7 7 T -7

r ( OFF. WEP,

( HOMOCIDE i "(

( ARSCM ( 285 C 14 C

MAYIMUM PEPCENT SUCCESS = -3-77

— 7 TUTMIT>r-P E R C E N i S U .FC-g_-3S "t• Tz. e-

MAXImUm PERCENT DIFERENCE = 33

MimF'ER 0F COVICTIONS (%SUCC.(gCASES

r r .t. , r _ (_ 1-3 ( 481 C S3 ( --( . T t -(

( 108 ( ( 7-10 ( ?oi c 171 i T T 7 ( 11-/5 C 319 C la? ( ( 15-50 ( t

MAXIMUm, PERCENT succEss =-4-FT ( 308 146

MINImUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 265

MAY,IMUi';, PERCENT DIFERENCE = 216 .

USUCC.t#CASES TCTAL SENTENCE

( 2-5YRS. -7- 6-1YRS.

7

(

_

( 324 22g ( ____T

176 (

7 111_4_1/11.4

357

n5 i1 L. UV t- MA>IMUllIFRCENT SUCCESS 357 mINIflUk rERCENT SUCCESS = 312

mA'ÀIMUr PERCENT DIFERENCE = 45

(%SUCC.(CASES

T T T T C NONE ( 313 ( 325 ( T T T T C YES ( 345 ( 171 ( T T T 4 1-3 OFF., ( 341 ( 120 I

7 T ( ( 333 ( 12 (

VIOLFMT HISTORY

çC OVER MA.),IMUF". PERCENT SUCCESS 7=7- 3Z5 - MINIMUT0 PERCENT SUCCESS = 313 MPXImUY PERCENT DIFERENCE = 3?

SrXUAL OFFENCE HISTORY (Y.SUCC(gCASES

7 T I T

. ( NONE • ( 317 ( 564 ( T T. T. t ( YES ( 475 ( 40 ( T T T T t 1=-1 01-F. ( .ee C 31 (

MAIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = - 31. 7 MI4IMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 317

MAXImUM PERCENT DIFERENCE =

(X,SUCC.(#CASES rç.cePF HISTORY

MiaIMU'd PERCENT SUCCESS MIP•IvoU ,•. PERCENT SUCCESS

YES

( NONE E -35 147

= 2:2 5

( ap5 ( a45 ( ____T __ ( 354 ( 392 (

mA>itlUA,RCENT DIFERFNCE = 69

C%SucC.C#CASEs

T r r r T T

C 316 i 4Q1 C ( NONF T

C 1-3 3 1 MAXI

C 42 C a3aMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = - 3.4t7

----mT-N-TwfUr -PERT EN t bULLIzSb- -‘=. 3it

MUM7'ER OF PAROLES

MA>IMu'l PERCENT DIFERENCE = 33

SUCCFSSFUL PAROLES CUUCC.C#CASES

T . t t ( NONE 331 C 211 C T T T r ( MOST ( 27'2 C 11 C -, ( ALL 4 434 i 46 i T ( NiA 3 ( 163 1

MAXIMUM ( 14

PERCENT SUCCESS =-337 . . ,

MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 314

MAxI' MUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 17

( 7.SUC C. (#CA SES FAILURE-S

re7,ximil PERCENT SUCCESS = MimImuk PERCENT SUCCESS = 245

---mAXIMUN—PERCTUT—DITbRENCE = vi

( NONE ( 337 57?

24 C • f7

ACCOMPLICES ON PRES. f'FF.

( NO 2? ( C 142

- - •

( ..ZSUCC.(fiCASFS

( UKN MAXIMLW PERCENT SUCCESS

MINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 341

MAxImUm PERCENT DIFERFNCE =

(ZSUCc.(#CASES PLACF_QF_PIRTE

7 ( NFLD. ( 58V ( e ( T T T T ( t,!.,';. Z 267 C 28 T T T

T ( P..I. ( 326 ( 49 ( r T T T

t ( 165 i le i 315 i 19j

MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 12?

( F.

( ONT. MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS 267

CZSUCC.CfiCASES KAPITAL STATUS -p T T

( SINGLE f 1 n 2 i _Ial_i T ( SEPERATED ( 266 C 15 C .r r r r C DIVORCED ( 1a1 C 22 ( T T T T ( C. LAU ( 371 C 35 C

T.---""---1-r-r ( MAPRIED ( 369 111

MAAIMe' PERCENT SUCCESS .= .erP mINImUV PECFNT SUCCESS = 3r e,

RrLIGION


mAxiroileCENT DIFERFbiCE = 64

U4SUCC.-C#CASES T T I T ( BAPTIST - ------- .( 313 C I4 C t . T T. t ( R.C. ( 291 C 34P, C. r r r r t U1'1. VW01. ( U4 i 116 C T T T ( ANGLICAN ( 1AO i ' 44 1

= 293


MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCCSS

(ZSUCC.C#CASES , T T T ? -2YPS L T c 2-5YRS. ( 117_ C _al6 1 r . -T- -T- - C ( 6-10YRÇ ,,,, ( 35Z ( 119 C T t t t ( 11-15YRS. ( 152 - C 88 C r r r r ( 16-50YRS. C 347 C 69 i r ( OVER 50YRS. 1 104 i 105 C

= 304

eru;PEGATF SENTENCE

MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE =

C%SUCC.(4ICASES Ut PEr.

( 1 ( 322 29E4

p.(E AT 1 51 CONVICTION

( /2 - lç

( 15 -

C 18 - 21

10 _1 ( 500

(%SuCC.OnAsES Z Z

AGE AT 11' CrITIAL

IIJM -PE RTENT IFERENCE = 41 • • • res-urn-rern-sts 1 T T

0 C .11 C .p.r. .•.e 7 7 ( 28. ( a98 ( 7 1 1

--4.1.11.-4--11Z4 ( al r - t 24 t ---( 27 t ---( 30 -

- 27 ( 318 ( 22 ( — ., --- __ t - 30 ( 476 ( 21 (

Z T T 33 ( 461 ( 13 (

MAxIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS

( 39 - 42 fl-

= 288


( 15 - le, i II9 ( e54 ( 1 T T T ( 18 --' 21 t 337 ( 163 ( T T Z I C 21 - 24 — — - ' ( 774 • ( 2 ( 1 ( 24 - 27 4 34 3

I

Q4 ( 23 i T

7 - ( 30 - 33 ( 36/ ( ii ( T T T T ( 36 - 39 ( 1QO ( 10 C T T t t ( 39 - 4? ( 545 ( 11 (

mAXIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS =---37 -mrnileuv -prwuni—succEss = er4

MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFFRENCE = 63

• • • CSUCC.(#CASES

P- CE e.T 1ST PP,!. TERm _ . _ _ T' -- --I —

( 15 - 18 ( 233 ( 14 ( T T T T ( 18 - 21 C 308 ( 204 C I' T ( 21 - 24 ( 304 ( 82 ( t T T T ( 24 - ?7 C 338 ( 59 ( T vr -,.... 1, T ( 27 - 30 ( 379 ( Z9 ( T 1 T T r -- ( 10 - 33 i 10 i n_i

T ( 33 - 36 i 107 i 114 ( 36 - 39 ( UQ_ ( _AZ ( T ""T «1- ."T ( 39 - 4? ( 400 ( 15 (

MAXIMUi; PERCENT DIFERENCE = 105

MAXImU›. PERCENT SUCCESç =7-33> fr MIr4IMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 233

• - 30 -

XI EVALUATION TABLES (1969 - 1977)

•

•

lebti" flP : TY: OF ;FES. COi ■;VICTION TYi': or 'JF.P.. CONVICTION

CONVICTIOS .iXUL uFE-t, CE HISTnRY CE T [J)ÇJ F

PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1 7 1? TO 1361 13.3 6n

• 1361 TO 1410 24.1 29 141P TO 145 () 21.7 46 145 9 1- :.' 15(i(± 31.3 ?0 ' Ili_ 1qU__ _.2.7...6 123 1557 TC 1cri!6 3 0.1 97 1/-•r_:_6 TO 16s5 7 i ? 55 . 1b5 TO 17 - 14 45.7 35 17L4 To 1753 76.7 30 1753 To 1;- .2 56.6 b3

CHECK TALE FOk : IYPF OF PRES. COMVICTIOr, TYFt OF ",ER.

CONVICTICMS SFYUTL OFFFCE HISTORY

1cT Ptrt , _

RANGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1312 TO 1 3 à1 13.6 66 1361 TO 1410 22.° 35. 1410 TO 1459 27.7 47 1459 TO 150',.' 7

6. 0 86 .

i c6.- • ç 51 rLoL i au, — , 1557 TO 1606 31.5 124 1.4 06 TO 1655 30.6 ' 49 1 ,-,55 TC 17 0 4 31.3 32 • 1704 TO 1753 4F.0 25 1753 TO 1502 61.1 72

re't-;Li. Fit : OF bnTH OF PFLEASF

KierrH CU 1 51 COMVICTIO,q FAILUPES

AnE rrLffiSr

PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 11L6 TO 1259 0.0 ü 1 2 5 0 TO 1314 G.0 2 114 lo 137 0. 1 11 1 7-7 TO 1442 20.5 39

_1442 Tn 1 5 _16.4 73 lçue!, TO 157 1". 27.3 132 l',7( TU 1634 31.Q 135 1 0 34 To 16 ,? 41.3 126

TO 17 6 2 4.4 5 .2 1762 TO 1S26 4.3 5;

CHECK. TAULE FOK :

OF DIKTH Y.C.TH OF ifl_FASE 5, CLTH OF 1ST CO ,IVICTION

FAILOPES AT 5:7-7 LI- AqF

RL;I:Gt- PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 114 TO 1250 0.0 0 _ 1250 TO 1314 100.0 1 1714 TO 137') 9.1 11 137 1 ; TO 1442 26.9 26 1442 TO 15c-el S1_3 W3 15(16 TO 157 1) 33.3 1?3 157 i1 70 1634 30.6 124 1 ,)34 TO 16E 129 1 6 , TO ' 1762 37.7 77 1762 TU 126 45.2 62

• • FOP '

YEtR OF :iri11 TYPr OF .FLFASE (STATUS)

oF 1ST CO:.IMITAL YFbR OF 15 1 COM,'ITAL

OF 15T RFP , _ TFRM

N G F. 1250 TO 1312 171,? TO 1374 1374 TO 1436 1436 TO 149h

TO 156_,I•L 156 TO 1622 1(2? TO 164 16'._4 TC 1 7 /,6 1746 Tü 1 0 3 TO 1.7ti

CHECK 1dLL FOP : YEeK OF HIRTH TYP OF ,,'ELEAE (STATUS) eûL vi- OF 1ST C01?mITAL YFPR OF 1ST COMMITAL •

OF 15T PEN TFPNi

PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES o

17

17.9 39

18, 3 71 71

3 1 ;1 1 0 3

31.1 104

29.0 1'.)7

. 40.0 9n

41.3 46

63.6 55

t!GF PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1250 TO 1312 25.0 4 112 TO 1374 17.6 17 1374 TO 1436 24.2 33 1436 TO 149 28.6 56 1L25 To 1_5_6» _27-2 101 156 0 TO 1622 33.9 109 122 TO 16"z<4 39.7 131 1:4F,4 TO 1746 39.3 84 1746 TO l'-'. 29.ü 62 1 .r, 10 170 35.9

• - 31 -

XII DISCUSSION OF RELEASES (1969 - 1975)

This section is meant to summarize the other sections,

while presenting the project's conclusions. We will be referring

to sections XIII and XIV, the scoring and evaluation tables for

the releases 1969 - 1975. We will first explain why there was

no check run on these tables. There were approximately 1900

releases from Dorchester Penitentiary and Westmorland

Institution in the period April 1, 1969 - January 1, 1977. 1854

of these were used in the study (the remainder left out due to

illegibility of release records). Of_. these1350 were coded (the

remainder having died or their FPS records being inaccessible).

Of these, 1010 were from 1969 - January 1, 1975. Using the

criterion of having at least 50 cases for statistical significance,

this caused problems. To verify tables we could use only one

half of the total number of cases in setting up thel -tables, using

the other half to verify them. This meant that for more

accuracy we couldn't verify the tables. We decided to have two

sets of tables. The first uses all releases and the second

uses the releases up to January 1, 1975. We demonstrated

how verification worked on the first set of data (1967-1977)

using 625 cases to set up the tables and 625 cases for veri-

fication. We use all 1010 cases (1967-1975) to set up very

accurate success tables. They are more accurate mainly because

(1) the success period is always greater than 21/2 years, and

(2) 400 more cases were used to set up the tables. We have

used the same categories that the 1969-1977 tables used in

the first four tables of this section for comparison purposes.

• - 32 -

We will have to obtain more data before we can verify these.

The scoring tables are interesting to look at by

themselves. For example, inmates born in November have a 40%

success rate compared with 20% for June. One point that

cannot be stressed enough is that the categories and success

are not 'cause and effect' but they do outline strong

relationships, whatever they are. Whenchoosing the categories

for the evaluation tables we tried to do several things.

Firstly we wanted relevant factors,(using the table in Sec. VIII).

We also attempted to choose five unrelated categories (present

conviction is related to serious conviction, etc.) for the

table. We also tried to choose factors that had an obvious

connection to recidivism. That is, month of birth and month

of 1st conviction don't have an obvious connection. Also ages

at events (convictions, birth, etc.) would seem preferable to

the years in which they occurred. Tables 1, 4, 5, 7, 11 and 14

are examples of this. They are fairly accurate, giving a good

distribution of cases and graduation of scores from low to high.

An error in the computer program caused the generation

of Table 6. The program was corrected but we were surprised

by this table. As a consequence we generated several other

tables using factors which should not have any relationship to

recidivism. The most notable of these are Tables 2, 9, 10, 12

and 15. They all show good graduation and distribution.

(Table 15 is especially notable since the graduation goes from

10% success to 90% success.) The main problem is, despite the

fact they shouldn't work, they do.

•

•

•

• - 34 -

XIII SCORING TABLES (1969 - 1975)

Please note that subcategories with fewer than ten

cases are not printed in the scoring tables; those with

fewer than fifty cases are not used in the computation of

maximum percent difference.

•

•

;. 1.'N 1-1 1 OF rIRTO

• (ZSUCC.(kCASES

T T T T ( JANUARY ( 264 ( 6P ( T T T T. ( FE"RUARY ( Q.„--16 ( P3 ( T T T T (.MARCH ( 266 ( 75 ( r • T , —r T i APRIL tr.5"--- i ( (2 T T. T ( MAY ( 235 ( 77 ( T T T T ( JUNE ( --148-2 ( 82 ( T T 7 T ( JULY ( ?43 ( 74 ( T 7 - - 7 7 T

i AW ,(-) ( WST

( SEPTEMPER ( '5:3 ( P5 ( T 1 Z Z ( OCTOBER ( -3- G ( 10() (

. t T T r ( NOVEMBER ( -Wi ( 63 ( T T T r

1 ebt c (3 t

MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE =.198

---T-Z-E-CtMbER MAxIrUr PERCENT SUCCESS E -377 MINImUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 182

YEAR OF BIRTH

( 18 — 21 ( 21 — 24 ( 24 — 27 T ---

(?7

( 30 T ---

( 33 — 36

( 36 - 39

( 39 — 42

( 42 — 45 ( 45 — 48

( 48 — 51•

( — 54

( 54 - 57 MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIYU ERCENT SUCCESS = 164

mAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 142

17,SUCC—;(#CASES

( — 7

294 ( 17 ( Z - ( 17 (

15 ( — r

34 ( — r

48 ( - - t 45 (

(' ( 3'16 ( 75 (

T ( 2.2 ( R2 (

( 256 ( 125 (

( P77 ( 14 (

( 217 i 170 ( ( 164 ( 97 C

7 ( 45 ( 22 (

•

—

T-(

( 411 4no

c 529

( 250 (

( 244 (

•

MCNTH OF RELFASE •

YEAR OF RELEASE •

(%SUCC.UCASES

( JANUARY ( 17ii ( 56 ( 7 T 7. T (.FEisRUARY ( 316 ( 6Q ( 7 7 T T ( PIAI, LH ( J29 ( ez—t 7 7 7 7 ( APRIL ( 341 i 72 { 7 7 ( MAY i 7. ( JUNE ( 306 ( 98 ( T T T t 1 JuLy ( 35 , ' c r« T T. T T ( AuGUST ( 294 ( 95 ( T T T T e SEPTEmBER ( 261 ( 84 ( T" T T T ( OCToBrR ( 184 ( 92 ( 7 7 1 1 ( NUVtInkit- K i P52 i 91.4 T ( DECEMBER C 2R5 ( 91 (

MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS--17- 3. 5(7 MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 178


(r.succ.(ticAsEs r e r r ( 69 — 72 C295 ( 521 ( T T —T ( 72 — 75 T(1259 ( 482j

MAX1MU1 PERCENT SUCCESS z: - 775 MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 259

MAximUm PERCENT DIFERENCE = 36

. TYPE OF RELEASE (STATUS)

(1JCC.(4CASES

T T 1 T t ( EXPIREY ( 1267 ( 367 (

• (----m.. F- 1.3 1 3u4 Î---- — 7 .

7 7 T T ( PAPOLE ( 59 ( 306 ( T T 7 T

( 38 ( 21 ( mr.xImum pERCENT succEss = -351" MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS' = 213

7-P—XLI—YUm PEXIENI DitERENLE =' 14o

•

gl, YEAR OF 1ST CONVICTION

T T T T f200

i 1Q...{ ( .2. - 45 ( 272 ( 11 ( T - T 7 - 7 ( 45 - 4e (e>.!+ - ( Us ( T T Z Z ( 48 - 51 ( 171 ( 35 C Z T T T

• ('51 - 54 - '-- ( I8 7 ( 32 ( T T. t r ( 54 - 57 ( 315 ( 57 ( T T T T t 5e - 6u t zn6 ( Ire—t T T 7 T ( 60 - 63 ( 306 ( 124 ( T 7 T T ( 63 - 66 ( 324 ( 185 ( T T T T ( 66 - 69 ( 234 ( 222 ( 1 7 7 7 T ( 69 -

T T ( 7? - 75 ( 242 ( 33 (

MA>IMUN PERCENT SUCCESS MINImU7e PERCENT SUCCESS = 2u

PERCFNT DIFERENU = 122

(Z SUCC. (# CASES

. . . I •

N -- 11 OF 1ST CONVICTIoN T T T T

ql, ( JANUARY T

( 246 ( 77 ( T T T

( FE!', PUARY ( 746 ( 69 ( T. 7 T 7 ( MAPCP ( 777 ( 83 ( Z T —Z

• ( APRIL ( 185 ( 97 ( T T T T ( MAY ( 258 ( 85 ( T T T r ( JUNE ( 382 ( 81 ( T T T T ( JULY ( 357 ( 70 ( T — -----r----T— 7----- ( AUGUST i 254 i 1Q6 .((, T ( SEPTFmPER ___ ( ?78 ( 104 ( ( i ( C ( OCTOPER ( 362 ( 9 1 ( T T. T t ( NOVEMBER ( 255 ( 86 ( T T T T ( DECEMBER ( 245 ( 61 (

MaxIMLW PERCENT SUCCESS

MINIMU'l PERCENT SUCCESS = 185

MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 1 0 7

•

(ZSUCC.(11CASES eil0 OF ' 1ST COYITAL

_ - ___ T - r ---r ( JANUARY ( 308 (81 ( r T r r ( FEBRUARY ( 219 ( 73 ( ( ( ( ( ( MAf,C ,4 ( 325 ( 83 ( T. T T T ( APRIL ( 2 ) 8 ( 91 ( T T T T ( MAY ( 228 ( 92 ( T 7 7 7 i---U-4

( JULY ( 313 ( 67 ( T T T T ( AUGUST ( 316 ( 101 ( T T I T T ( SEPTEMBER S e 295 .. 98

t

( OCTOPER T

i 3. 17 i_ 8a i

( NOVEMBER T ..((. al7 ï Lani ( DECEMBER ( 279 ( 6i,, (

MAXIMUm PERCENT DIFERENCE = 135

(XSUCC.(gCASES

•

MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS E--. - 347 MINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 207

rEAR or- isi tommiiAi • T T T T ( 42 -45 ( 300 ( in ( z .r T T ( .45 -- 48 - " - - - ---(" 333 ( 21 ( T I t. T ( 48 - 51 ( 142 ( 35 ( -T r T T ( 51 - 54 .( 166 ( 1-6--r---

-T 7 Z T ( 54 - 57

T ( 57 - 62

T ( a18 i' 105 (

T ( 60 - 63 t T T T

• - (— - 7 - . " T T

( 2 26 ( 11(7 (

( 66 - 69

( 69 - 72 •

( 72 - 75 mAYImW, PERCENT SUCCESS = 37s

---ml ,urerum -FET-rtNT—surc-tb = e26


( 238 ( 239 (

( 285 ( 161 (

( 295 ( 44 (

•

YEAR OF 1ST PEN. TERm (%SUCC. C# CASES

-“-15

( 63=:66 t _

(SUCC.(ICASES

, N1-1. OF 1 ST PEN. TERM ___ T

( JM1UAqY T r----- T

W 1 ( 264 ( 87 ( T T T T . ( FEr!PHAPy ( P87 ( 73 ( . T T T . T ( MARCH ( 1 -) . ( 8 ( T7 Z T ( APP1L ( 315 ( 95 (

----r— T ( mAy i 252 i 95

( JUE ( 309 ( 71 ( T Z T Z • ( JULY • ( 180 ( 72 ( T T T T ( AUGUST ( 2.9 ( 67 ( r r —r _ ( SEPTEMBER ( 311 ( 93 ( T. r r r ( OCTOBER ( 7 92 ( 113 ( T T T T ( NOVEMBER ( 7 68 ( 82 ( • T T T T ( DECEMBER ( 7 53 ( 75 (

----MAXIMUPF—PERCENI Stain-1z) MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 180


( 45 - 48 ( 277 ( le ( ( 46 -

( 51 - 54

( 54 - 57

( 57 - 60

( 6Q - 72

( 72 175 = -73 -- = 245

mAximum PERCENT SUCCESS mINImum PERCENT SUCCEsS

( 2.-J!) ( el ( . r

( 137 ( 29 (

( 440 (s 25 ( T ( 245 (\ 61 (

T ; e52 ( 95 (

r ( 338 ( 031

, ( 2:7U( i54 (

L T ( 250 ( Z5(7 (

T (- 273 • ( \95 (

MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFbRENcE

•

U,SULC.CeCASES TYF-- OF PPES. CO"VICTION

( RAPE

( IA–FEMALE

SEXUAL-0TH

( 53F, (

C 419 (

( 875 (

(

31 (

16 ( ( ASSULTS

T _( ROBBERY__ ( RF+T

( ESCIPE

( THEFT–MV

( THEFT-0TH

( POSS. S.G.

( FRAUDS T----------- ( DRUGS

( OFF. WEP.

( OTHER

( HQMOCLDE

( ARSON :=7-3TiT

300 60

i 271 1Q3

t ?5P ( ( 2.9P

16

51 (

72 ( ___ t se (

76 C T-

( 555 ( 18 (

• ( 181 ( 22 ( 7 7

(65n ( 20 (

272 22 ( MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS

( 117 (

( 2(18 ( ( 31r (

( 236 (

f

MINIMUM PER-CENT SUCCESS = 117 , MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 193

USUCC.t#CASES TYPE OF OF SER. £ONVICTIQN

T T 1 T – C RAPE - — ' - C 38n - ( 21- (

T T. 7' 7 ( IA - FEMALE ( 377 ( 45 ( T 1 1 1 > ( sEr;u4L-oin ( (el'? ( 19 ( T 7 7 7' ( ASSULTS ( 354 ( 62 ( 1 7 1 1 4...-ROBBEEX ( 269 t 156 ( ( 7 T 7 ( PE+T i 253 i 37 5 i

1 C.-F=4 i -'. c 5 , ' ( Z. T T T ( THFFT - MV ( 113_ C 44 ( 1 , T 1 Z. ( Tl EFT - OTH ( 131 ( 61 ( 7 1 T. 1 ( POSS. S.(7. ( 243 ( 37 ( 1 1 1 1 C FR/Mob ------(-- —63 ( 7 7 7 T ( DRUGS ( fz4Z ( IZ ( 1 1 T –T ( OFF. WET, . ( 3 ) 7 ( 13 ( 7 7' T" 7 ( HOMOCIDE ( SU ( 24 ( r T 7 T ! ARbu"; ( 7 38 r----,t—r--

mÎXImUte PCENT SUCCESS = - 354 miimm« PEPCFNT SUCCFSS = 131

mAxImtiv PEPCP:T DIFERENCE = 223

. NUEP Of CoNVICTIONS

(%SUCC (CASES T T T T ( 1- 7 (5?S ( 127 ( T - 7 T--- T ( 4-A ( 28 ( 21 ( T 7 7 7

7 C 7-in

( 11-15 ( 221 T ( 171 (

T T 7 ( 15 - 50 ( 228 ( 232 (

MAX1f,TUri 1"t1-(C. 1 -


MAXUUY PERCENT DIFERENCE = 314

(%SUCC.(#CASES

T T T T. ( 2-5YRS. ( 257 ( 369 ( T T. Z. T ( 6-10YRS. - - ( 3•r1 ( 283 ( T ' t T T ( 11 -15YRS. ( a86 ( 122 ( T T T T

U71 13 1. bt-NIEINCE.

( 15 - (YYPb. ( e55 ( el9 ( T T T T ( OVER 79YRS. ( 6iJO ( 10 (

MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = -37D MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 255 --

• MAximum PERCENT DIFERENCE = 55

VIOLENT HISTORY

( NONE

( YES •(« ( 1-3 OFF.

(XSUcc.(ticASES

7 "7 *1 ( 252 ( 535 ( -T Z T ( 315 ( 263 ( T T' t ( 307 ( 195 C T T T ( 187 ( _16 ( ( OVER

KT71mum PECE_NE SUCCESS L--- 3777 MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 252

mAXIN"UM PERCENT DIFEPEICE 6 7

(ZSUCC.(IICASES SFYIPL OFFENCE HISTORY

7 ( NONE (

7 7 ( Yts ( 46:; 76 i

( 1 •3 OFF. ( 313 ( 51 ( iyrmpm pFPCENT SUCCES =7-46 7

rflCPIT SUCCESS =

0 11 x:''.UK Pr-KcEmT DIFFPEt,'CE = 2 ) 1

SUCCESSFUL PAROLES

( FEW ( 200 ( ln ( T T T 7 ( MOST ( 142 ( 21 ( T T T -T

. ( ALL 36,6 i 71 S t ( N/A ( 273 ( 5.74A

MA>IgUe- PEkLENT-7 mINImUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 273

vAxUs'il" PERCENT DIFERENCE = 93

(%SUCC.(#CASES

1110 EU,,RT HISTCPY

T t r T ( YES ( 212 ( 363 (

T T T ( 316 ( 645 (

7 r2r A- n'Tfrr- P J TC NOF1- = t.., — -- •••• ,...1.1.L-71E-2ed41.1.ilal-”-eut-ver ••■


MAXI'ele PERCENT DIFERENCE

McFR OF PAROLES (%SuCc.(#cAsEs

T T t T ( NONE ( 279 ( 636 ( T T T T

( eft; 3(1 t ( MAxIne PERCENT SUCCESS 279 MiNIMUr' PERCENT SUCCESS = 274

MAxImU7' PERCENT DIFERENCE = 5

(ZSUCC.(1/CASES _ • _

T T T T ( _NONE ( ?7R ( 334 (

MU CC.( MCAS E S . FAILURFS

( NONE ( 288 ( 953 (

( 1-3 ( 75 ( 53 (

IXIMUM PERCFNT SUCCESS = 777


—1MT- XletrrE7rtNT DIFt- kh^nt = 1

•


(

P.E.I.

( T __ ( uNi.

---7- 34"7 - = 237

tARITAL STATUS

, 1

:CC(..PLI:Cg'S Or: PRES. OFF. T T T T , ( YES i n ( 11 i T T ( NO ( Lb ( 41 ( T T T t

( 291 ( 94P ( e r1- 7-s, x-r7urr----P F-P- c-Errr- s-u L L r_ SS. = —77T mINIMLW PERCENT SUCCESS = 291

MAXUUP PERCENT - DIFEPENCE =

(%SUCC.(eCASFS PLACE OF EIPTU

( NFLD,

T t T ( ?d3 ( 3n ( T r T ( 264 ( 68 ( - T T T

272 i t 322 ( 31

MAxirpg—FrERCENI DI )-ERLNIE = ILP)

^1AXIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS mINIMM PERCENT SUCCESS

(%SULL.(PLAbtS

T T t T ( SINGLF. ( 228 ( 592 ( T T T 7 ( WIDOWED ( 588 ( 17 ( T T T T ( SEPERATED ( 181 ( 22 ( ."( T t t ( DIVORCED ( 129 ( 31 ( r t r T ( C. LAW ( 125 ( 40 ( T - T r t ( MARRIED ( 35 ? ( 204 C = -352 = MP

MAX1mWA PERCENT DIFERENCE = 94

(YSUCC.(HCASES P'LIGION

- 7 ( BAPTST ( P73 ( 95 ( ( 7!61 R ( 540 (C

T T t

nr- DCENT SUCCESS = 3T' PEPCENT SUCCESS = 261

• ■ rr-;1- x -rem' PERCENT— UrFERENLL = 4 -c; ■ .

T OH '/ . PN01,„ i ?'<-) (

7 7 ( AN(7:LICAN ( 31' ( 74 (

T T T ( NOUE ( 166 ( 12 <

(4bUCC.(eCASES

( 171 ( 35 (

( 281 ( • 37 ( 7

( 270 i 17/1 (

( 3J9 ( 142 ( 7 ( 293 ( 109 (

( 26 ( 169 (

( NONE ( 'A ç lu C T T T. T ( 1 ( 262 ( 469 ( 7 T T T

T 2

7 ( VIZ • i L.2.6.11 ( _

( 3 ( a63 ( 114 ( T T T T

( _115 ( ( 4 MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS F. - 3(72. VINImUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 260

a61.!

MAXIMUm PERCENT DIFERENCE

:, (GPF±ATV SEPTENCE

( -2YRS.

( 2-SYPS.

( 6-1)YRS.

( 11-15YRS.

( 16-501"-U.

( 0%/ 5. R 5nYRS. MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS =77- 3- rer MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 26


(%SUCC.(#CASES Nilmr, ER OF PEN. TERMS

— CZStCC-.'(#CASES OUTCOME

T T T r ( SUCCESS (100n ( 281 C 7 T T T ( FAILURE ( (7) ( 728 (

mAxplw- PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 0

MAXImUm PERCENT DIFERENCE = ***

•

MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 37g MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 163

MAXImUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 165 '

4 T _ !L[ 1 [ 7 T T T

Z ( IF - al i 163 i 9 2 i

( 21 - 24 ( 192 ( 192 ( T T 1 1 ( 24 - 7 Z

i 256 i 164 i 2

( 27 -.30 ( 9 ( 1Q7 ( T 1 1 1 ( 73 - 33 ( 297 ( 94 ( Z T 1 1 ( 33 - 36 ( 32F (.67 (.T T r r -C---36 - 39 t715 t Si ( 1 T T .T ( 39 - 42 ( 411.! ( 39 (

-r 1 T 1

T ( 42 - 45 . • ' { 436 { 3

n

2 «i

1 ( 45 - 48 • _i 400 i 2i

( 44 - 51 ( 11t ( 1 7 T T

T -

54 i 428 i 16.. i ( 54 - 57 -( 333 ( 12 ( Z T. 1 1 ( 57 - 6r. c 384 ( 13 ( r T 1 r ( 60 - 6 ( 'nn ( in c

•

> mAXIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUr.' PERCENT SUCCESS

AGE AT 1ST CONVICTION - (7.SUCC.C#CASES

( 12 - 15 ( 76 ( 13 ( T T Z T ( 15 - 18 C 196 { 432 ( 7 T T ( 13 - 21 ( 274 ( - 248 ( 7 .. . • . 7 T 7 ( al - 2.4 i 319 ( 7a ( T T •71' C a4 - 27 (,. 352 ( 51 ( T t -e--- T C 27 - 30 ( 482 ( a9 ( T T T T C 30 - 33 ( 368 ( 19 ( t t t ( 33 - 36 ( 444 ( 18 1 T T T T ( 36 - 39 ( 400 ( 10 ( t Z Z Z ( 39 - 42 ( 615 ( 13 ( = -I5Z = 191,

MAxIYLP. PERCENT DIFERU;CE = 156

,rE AT 1ST CO':ITTAL

•

2 4

• 1

MAXIMW.: PERCENT SUCCESS mINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS

(7.SUCC.U1CASES

-C. 7 7 r ( 15 - 1L, ( 214 ( 366 C T T T T ( 18 - 21 ( 26:1 ( 27:; (. T T T T ( el - e4 ( '?« i 9>' f T "r {

.24 - a7 ( 746 i sa i . 7 ( 27 - 3e ( 3 • ..4 ( 39 i 7 T T ( 30 - 33 ( ?77 ( 18 ( r r T r ( 33 - 36 ( 444 ( 13 (- r T T 7 ( 36 - 39 ( 375 ( 16 ( T 7 T T ( 39 - 42 ( 538 ( 13 (

= 204

MWrImilm— PERCI=NI oubREmLE =

(%silit.(4LAbtbe AGE AT 1ST PEN. TERM

T T T T ( 15 - 1P i 179 i 122.4 T. .

7 ( 18 - 21

( 21 - 24 ( ?63 ( 131 ( T 7 T T ( a4 - 27 ( 294 ( 95 (

T ( 27 - 30 ( 407 ( 54 (

( 30 - 33

( 33 - 36

( 36 - 39 T ---

( 39

( 45 - 48 MUImUM PERCENT succEss

pEPCENT SUCCESS = 179

MAXIYUM PERCENT DIEERENCE =

t ( 294 ( 34 (

( 333 ( 30 ( 7 7 T ( 350 ( 20 ( T T T ( .5n 0 c 18 ( T-11---T ( 40Q ( 10' (

•

e -35-

XIV EVALUATION TABLES (1969 - 1975)

.

•

• • rIpLE FOP : TYPE OF I RES. COijVIC110!: ryPr OF ezFP. CoNVICTTnN ;;Uwt ., EP ( , 1 C( , MVICTIOPS SEY14,L OFFENCE. HISTC,RY

fUl 1,ST PE_h_ LERP

P. 'NGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 9 1.1 T0 1016 6.5 31

1 1 6 TO 1131 14.0 93 1131 TO 1?46 19.1 2-62 1746 TO 1361 25. 3 1) 2 1361 To 147 ,, 3 a un 1476 To 15 0 1 7 2.Y 67 1591 TO 176 ' Le.1 44 176 TO 1P,?1 51.7 , 29 1-,21 TO 19 3C 58.3 12 1936 TO 2051 69.1 6C,

: 4 l'"ONTH OF E.IkTP

v, Or4TH R1LE.r1SE "- OPTP OF 1ST COMVICTION

FAILlueES LI .1,51FAÇF

R , d1On PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES

73 TO ?77 0.0 71

77 TO 971 O. 1

:? 7 1 TO 165 9.1 11 15 TO 1159 6.6 61 11SQ TO 12 _13-3 124 1?S TO 1347 22.4 246 1347 TO 1441 26.? 279 1441 TO 1535 41. , 196 153 5 TO 162 2 50-::'. 59 1629 TO 172 54.:-,. 31

;,------- r— ----------------,,

------------------

3

TAfiLE FOy : YEAR OF rIRTH TYPE OF kFLUASE (STATUS) HC2NTH OF 1ST Coi"IITAL YEAq OF 1 51 COmfeITAL

Tr- RI?

k'u,,rF

PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES

',9L TO 1P1 0. 0 10

1 -, 61 TO 1132 9 .1 22

113? TO 1203 15.4 91

1 07 TO 1?74 17. 129 _ _______1224 TO 13.45_

1745 TO 1416 24.6 207

1416 Tn 14;i7 39.7 146

147 TO 155 50.H 120

155L TO 1629 32.6 ‘ 43

1629 TO 1700 1 .4 37

•

• __e__

TL FO r rSUEE HISTY i--LCE OF ofrTH erU fcr 1ÇT CUf.:VICTTON

AT 1 ST COIITTAL

kCF PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 154 TO 111 17.5 160 11 1 TO 11 2 15. 0 117 11 .c..,? .1. 124f, 24. 3 115 1246 TO 1310 24.:), 121 171c; IL 1 7 74 23.—L Ulu_

1774 TO 14 7.i , 36.7 • 179 143>' TO 15 1 2 44.2 _ 52

TO 1566 32.0 25 1566 TO 1630 20.3 3 3 1/:3L, TO 1694 47.3 93 '

e

5

TABLE FOR: MONTH OF RELEASE TYPE OF PRES. CONVICTION TYPE OF SER. CONVICTION NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS SEXUAL OFFENCE HISTORY

RANGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES

899 TO 1009 9.1 22

1009 TO 1119 9.4 64

1119 TO 1229 13.7 175

1229 TO 1339 24.1 348

1339 TO 1449 33.5 164

1449 TO 1559 31.9 72

1559 TO 1669 34.0 47

1669 TO 1779 50.0 28

1779 TO 1889 46.7 15

1889 TO 1999 67.6 74

•

• • 6

TABLE FOR: TYPE OF PRES. CONVICTION NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS MONTH OF BIRTH MONTH OF 1ST COMMITAL PLACE OF BIRTH


957 TO 1051 0.0 3

1051 TO 1145 10.2 49

1145 TO 1239 14.5 166

1239 TO 1333 19.9 302

1333 TO 1427 31.4 258

1427 TO 1521 36.1 61

1521 TO 1615 30.6 62

1615 TO 1709 49.0 49

1709 TO 1803 62.5 16

1803 TO 1897 83.7 43

Pi-RCF\T uCC.

11.1 15. 3

16.' 2_6 . 26.? 34.4

39.1

11' 1()1 14'7.

1'7, 7

46 1 T1

U(;ES

• 7 •

A.CE

Af AT 'i:;1"

1/ T 7 ) c1 7

97 TO 1:: 7 1 TC 1177 1177 TC 12(:7 1-2 1:›7 7'7 1357 "=':( TC 1447 14L7 TC, 153( '577 TC 1 ; 27 TC? 171?

8

! TABLE FOR : ! MONTH. Of BIRTH i TYPE OF SER. CONVICTION , NUM2ER OF CONVICTIONS ; SEXUAL.OFTENCE HISTORY

AGE AT PE1E.P.SE (

TO TO TO TO To

TO TO TO TO. TO

RANGE 949

15,9 1169. 1279

-1389 . 1499

1609 1719 1829, 1939

PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1059 7.4 27 1169 11.9 loci 1279 19.8 2 58 13;?.9 25.5 314 1499 29.4 119 1609 41.4 58 1719 51.2 43 1829 45.8 24 1939 66.7 21 _ 2049 80.6 36

TABU'. FOI; : YEAR OF :IRTFI

OF RFLEAsF YFP; OF TYP OF 7-FL5.ASE (STATUs)

COMVILIIDN_


999 TO 1268 6.3 16 1 6 TO 1177 9.7 3 1

1157 TO 12L6 10.6 66

1206 TO 1275 19.4 124 1275 To _L344 1544 To 1413 27.1

1413 TO 1“? 32.7 1 4 2 TO 1551 74 4 J.,. 12 1551 TO 1620 4.9 45 102 (: To 169 56. 37

( to

TABLE," FOR ; ; MONTH OF .1,ST COMVLCTION YEAR OF 1ST CONVICTION MONTH OF 1ST COMMITAL YEAR OF 1 51 COMMITAL

> MnNTP OF 1ST PEN. TERm

__

RANGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1004 TO 1078 14.3 7 , 1078 TO 115? 21.4 42 1152 TO 1226 16.7, ' 9'; 1226 TO 1300 - 14. ,-,., 162 1 11 n TO 1374 751 ?15 1374 TO 144P.= 26.. 8 190 1448 TO 1522 39.7 146

----- ---1-522 TO 1596 40.6 96 15.91.577-1 _ , 50.0 ._ . 36.. . 1670 TO 1744----:----.48.0 › 2 5 '

---___

.--„

-

iTA3LE FOP : , TYPE OF SEP. CONVICTION NUME,ER OF CONVICTIONS

; M.S. FAILURES AGE AT 1ST PEN. TERM TYPE OF PF!FASF CS_TilIPS)

PANGE

%YU. TO 924 '7'4 To 1U6

1(.:36 TO 1148 114P To 1260

Tri 1377 1372 TO 144; 144 TO 1596 1596 TO 170i:. 1708 TO 1820 1R2C TO 193?


5 , 11.1 27 11.0 73 17.n 176 23_4 334 31.3 197 32.P, 67 43.9 41 60.5 3.8 74.5 51

,

/2 TABLE FOR MONTH OF PTRTh MONTIf OF RELEASE TYPE OF RELEASE (STATUS) mOPTh OF 1ST COVICTION Ji&NTH OF 1 51 COKmITAL

RANGE 965 TO 1049 1049 TO 1133 1133 TO 1217 1217 TO 1301 1301 TO 1385 1385 TO 1469 1469 TO 1553 1553 TO 1637 1637. TO 1721 1-721' Ye) 1805


0.0 4

5.3 19 80

22.7 172

25,0 252

25.3 237

34.3 14U

54.3 81

52.9 17 7

0.

,

•;•

•

„

_

t 3

TABLE FOR • 35 N 0 F

AGE AT RELEASE AGE AT 1ST CONVI.CTION AGE AT 1ST COMITTAL AGE AT 1ST PFN- TFRM

'

, RANGE .- • , ,..."..- PERCEN-T SUC. TOTAL CASES -

1012 TO 1 .100 16.4 134 1100 TO.- 1188 . _. 18.8 128 1188 " . T -0.. 1276 .:. ' * 22 3 , --- 157

're 1364 . .31'44 ." 1-:-40 1364 TO 1452 ' 3-4'.. 7 . 167 " 1452 TO 1540 _ -..,-.' a5..0 76 .

-

1540. TO 1628 -: - '.."_.36.7.6 '.. . 41

1716 TO 1804 53.9 -

• •-• •

. .- . • - . . • . . . .

. • ;::::-......•••••••- ••,..?•• •.,. .. .

• '... if'; "--••": " „.nc' . - "-• _, . --, t. . -." . .. : ,!..;_......,..,,,...,_„..,...,,..„.,,,,,..„,•,,,, ,w;.,,,......„-....„...,..,---......-;.--...,.......,-.......,......,.....›....„.i...,-;.,...,,-.........

. ., • . . . •. . . .. . .. • ..

-

- -

TABLE FOR : TYPE OF PRES. CONVICTION NUNER OF CONVICTIONS SEXUAL OFFEUE HISTORY M.S. FAILURES

,PILL_AT 1 ST _.1.>_EJL. IFRm


844 TO 9.58 0.0 2

958 TO 1 e7? 0.0 25 172 TO 1186 17.8 11

1186 TO 1 3 0 17.9 346

Ilu TO 1414 ___31-1_ 251_

1414 TO 1528 28. 9 9 0

1528 TO 1642 41.3 75

1642 TO 1756 43.8 37

1756 TO 187u 54.5 22

1870 TO 1984 77 ..1 48

_

5-

PERCE.“ SUCC. TOTI. CASES 10. 3 cir„ lb.9 1q.5 ?4.7, 7-

-1?)3 n

7n r U., 1

• TAbLr Fr ■ : YLAK OF IfT l'En (IF lsr YEPI V;T COYmITA.L. YcLi 2F 1ST Pr.

CVICTLO . :S

1'55 1177 1137 TO 1 -21 1,7 1 T n 1 7-' 1 IC1

TO 1 -547 1 54? TC 1477

TC 1 1 11 1711 Tn 17'Y3 179 -ç: T. 175

CO!'<'; USPG::: C)EJF CT CODE= 15357 '-',YTES..4 ,'.Y A il-J:-.--- 11721 9 BYIES,TOTAL e.RE:1-',. AVAILABLE= 1351b .- -- YT'-S --..- g:R\r)P Sy" \ :' , A -',,-'.,- s- ..) F." AR.r, N-G534-; \ — - , - ir'l ESE R OF F. X T E I C S.-= ,

:0 ."ILE TIME= 0.70? SECeEXECUTIO'2 TI1=---- :''i.41 77E-Co /4.45 FRIUÀ-Y 9 SEP (7 '.,;f.TEI ,1 -

CÏ:FIAL

iv 0 eL c

TABLu 1 ST COM ,;ICTIO

YEr' fr !ST C•uVICTI 1ST C7TTn-1

YrAP F COie.UITAL MOT ;;JF 1ST PE',. TER _

kAi\P'7,[

PERCE N T SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1 -Ji- TO 1Ci7s: 14.3 7 1":7>"' To 115? 21.4 4? 1 , 52 TU, 122A 16.7 97 1 57 TO 1 3',:F 14.:. 16? 13ùb TO 1374 25.1 2 1:..; 1 -777-6 —TF 144":: -?fr" .

.' .'

1 +4 TO 15? -2 3 .? 14', 1 `2? Tn 15 (:.6 4 (3.A 1c- 9A Ti" 1.,7n cr• J:_ . •, '

1{,7 TO 1744 48,J-: 25

e -36-

XV PROGRAM

.

•

:***-****IL***************************************Ile****************************-* ****** * * * jn; HO0Y/MA32(;3.PAGES=50.TIME=111

c********************************************************************** c**** C**** ROUTIF FOR THE SETUP AND CHECKING OF GLUECK TABLES C**** TO DETERMINE THE PROHABILITY OF RECIDIVISM AMONG INMATES C**** RELEASED FROM DORCHESTER PENITENTURY (1969 - 1976) . C**** WRITTEN FOR A SUMMER PROJECT FOR THE soLicurR GENERAL . u**** c**** py c**** REG 40DY C**** MAY - AUGUST 1977 . c**** c*********************************************************************** C************************k********************************************** C******************MODIFICATION INFORMATION*****************************

*--;--F************************************************************** c**** C**** YOU MAY CREATE YOU (PdN CLASSES AND RANGES AS LONG AS YOU C*** USE THE SAME NUMBER OF RANGES IN YOUR TABLES . YOU CAN C**** CHANGE THE APPROPRIATE CLSHED AND RANHED SO THAT THE TABLES C**** WILL RE PROPERLY LABLED IN THE END . ALSO YOU MUST USE THE SAME C**** INPUT FORMAT AS THE PROGRAM CALLS FOR . C***t_THE PROGRAM MUST BE RUN ON AN EXTENTED VERSION OF THE C**w-UATEIV COMPILE R . C**** IF THERE ARE ANY INQUIRIES ON HOW TO MODIFY THIS PROGRAM C**** PLEASE FORWARD THEM TO : ,c**** N.P.S.

- 3WD—FLOOR RUBIN'S- 8LO. r**** 741 MAIN ST. c**** MONCTON N.B. c**** ElC 1E4

C**** THEY WILL FORWARD THEM TO ME . C**** REG HODY AUG. 29 • 1977 .

C**** *DULCE ET DECORUM'EST —PRO PATRIA MORI* c**** c*********************************************************************** C*********************************************************************** U**** C**** 1,2- DATE OF BIRTH (12.99) C**** 3,4- DATE OF RELEASE (12,99) C**** 5- TYPE OF RELEASE (6) C**** 6,7- DATE OF FIRST OFFENCE - (12,99)

C**** S,9- DATE OF FIRST COMMITTAL TO INSTUTION (12,99) C**** 10,11- DATE OF FIRST PENITENTURY COMMITTAL (12,99) C**** TYPE OF PRESENT CONVICTION (29)

- •- • )8. C**** 14- NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS (7) C**** 15- A(REGATE SENTENCE (7) C**** 16- VIOLENT HISTORY (5) C**** 17- SEXUAL OFFENCE HISTORY (5)-- - C**** ESCAPE HISTORY (3) C**** 19- NUMBER OF PAROLES (5) C**** NI- SUCCESSFUL PAROLES (5)

FORFITURES OR REVOCATIONS--(37) C**** 22- ACCOMPLICES (6) C**** 23- PLACE OF BIRTH (14) Ck*** 24- MARITAL STATUS (6)

(Pql 619

Ile 2r ( o )

e-i- 5P'SgENT o IN JAIL (7) c**** 27 - t; OF PENITFNTUARY TERMS (7) C**** 2 - SNCESS OR FAILURE (3) C**A* 2:;- AGE AT RELFASE (99) C**** Aç_,E AT FIRST CONVICTION (99) C**** 3 1- AGE Al- FISRT COMM. TO INSTITUTION (99) C**** 3 2 - AE AT FIRST COMM. TO PEN. (99) c-A*** c****.*.*****************-*****k*******************************************REG HoDy c**** MAXARF IS AN ARRAY OF THE MAXIMUM VALUES THAT CAN BE TAKEN r**** ON BY TH F CLASSES .

1 It.TEGfP*2 RECORD ( 3 2),SCnRE,32,3?),RAl'éTOT(32,32),TYPE,CLASS,RANGF 1-,TOTRAN,MAXARP(32)/12,95,12,95,6,12,95,12,95,12, 9 5,2*29,2*7,2*5, -3, : -3 *5,h,14,2*/,?*7,3,4* (,5/,FACT(32)/1,3,1e3,2*1,3,1,3,1, 3 ,17*1,4*3/, JTYHTOT(5)/5*‘/AECTOT,CSCORF,TOTMIN(3),TOTMAX(3),SUBMIN(3),FPS*4,

i2) eLOWeHI-G-1-E.DELTA,SCOPEC(1-0, - ), - `? OUT (`, ),RECSTP (16F) , .32) LOGICiL RAND0',flPNTON,CONDIT,DONE,CH CH'RACTCP NAki- k2O,OFFTYP*1n(29),PLOFBR*6(14),MONTH*1G(12),

4CISHED*3n(32),RANHED*15(32,9) C**** THr FOLLCWIt:G DATA STATEMENTS ARE THE HEADINGS FOR THE SUBCLASSES

DATA TOTMIMeTOTMAX,RAMTOT,SCORE,RECTOT/4103*0/ DATA MONTH/',JANUARY'r'FFBRUARYI,'MARCH','APRIL', I MAY', 1 JUNE l e

1 JuL -re7771.1(ius s EFL, F 'OCTOBER I N0VEMBER-1-7 1 1317-C EMI) ER '7 bATA OFFTYP/'kAPE', 1 1A-FEMALE*,"IA-MALE'''SEXUAL-OTH e r'ASSULTS', PP+E','PE+T','FSCAPE','THEFT-MV','THEFT-OTH','POSS. S.6. 1 1.'FRk'UDS'

WEP.','CONT. J.D.', 1 0THER', Z'HOMOrIDE',PKIDNAPPING','HOSTAGES'o'CONTEMPT . ,'NECRO OFF.'e'MISCHI iFF',"-. RSUN','NEF, LIGENCE','CONSPIRACY', I PERJURY'r'EXTORTION'/ DATA (RAN1ED(5,I),I=1,6)PEXPIREY','M.S.','PAROLE','WEST.',

î'POR. 1 , 1 0TH.'/ --- —DATA CPg- r%rfED M el),I=1,6)e (RANHED (.15eJ .) #.1=1 •617 -e l • •4--6-1-7-1 7----1 cr. „

l• ','15-79YRS.', 1 0VFR 79YRS.'/

0 Cb -FA KRAMHED(I,J),I=16,17),J=1,5)/2*'NONE',2* . YES I ,2* 7 1-3 OFF.', $2*'OVER 3',2*'OTHFR 1 / DATA (PANHED(1 , I),1=1,3),(RANHED(19,J),J=1,5)/ t YES','NONF',

$ 1 0THER I ,'NONE', $ 1-3','4-6','OVER 7 1 ,'OTHER I /

11 DATA ((RANHED(1,J),J=1,5),I=20,21)PNONE','FF40, 1 MOST's'ALL's ('''OTHER't

12 DATA (RANHED(22,I),I=1,),(RANHED(24,J),J=1,7)/ 1 YES'o'N0'. 1 YES-1', 3','UKN. ','SINGLE','WIDOWED','SFPERATED','DIVORCED'e

s

•

ic. LAW'''MARRIED', 1 0THER'/

13 DATA (PANHFD(25,I),I=1,6)/ 1 BAPTIST e r'R.C. 1 , 1 0TH. PROT.', 4 1 ANGLICAN','NONE', I OTHER'/

14 DATA ((RAMHEU(I,J),J=1,7),1=26,26)/'-2YRS.','2-5YRS.','6-10YRS.', l'11-15YRS ', 1 10-5CYPS,','OVER 50YRS.', ",'NONE"1 1 , 1 2 1 , 1 3', 1 4',

T--'11--V7T-T-Y-R-t°,'OTHFR','SULCESS'e l FATLURL','01HFW-1---I /

15 DATA FLOU3H/'NfLD.','N.S.','N.,?.','P.E.I.'e l P.Q.', 1 0NT.'e s MAN.',

C**** CH IS THE CHECK FLAG . C**** IF Chz--.TRNE. THEN ONLY HALF OF THE CASES ARE USED TO SET C**** UH THF TALES THF OTHER HALF ARE USED TO CHECK THE RESULTS .

10 CP=. TUF. C**** CLSHED IS THE ARRAY OF HEADINGS FOR THE TABLES .

17 - - CLSPEOCTJ=JMO>:-T4 OF HIRTH

1- CLSHED(l)='YEAR OF PIRTH

19 CLSHFD(3)= 1 rONTH OF RELEASE ' CLSHED(4)= 1 YEAR OF RELEASE '

-

---- ?1 -am CLSHED(i)= 1-1YPE OF RELEASE CSTATUST-1 ?? ?3

25 . ?6

27 , 7;

31 3 -1

74 75 6

37

CLSHED(6)= 1 MONTH OF 1ST COMVICTION 'el. CLSHED(7)= ° YEAR OF 1ST CONVICTION CLSHED()= 1 UN1H OF 1ST COMMITAL ° CLSHFD( 0)= 1 YEAR OF 1ST COMMITAL CLSHED(10)= 1 MONTH OF 1ST PEN. TERM ' CLSHED(11)= 1 YEAR OF 1ST PEN. TERM CLSHED(1?)= 1 TYPE OF PRES. CONVICTION • rusTIER = "P . 1 . • " CLSHED(14)= 1 NUriHER OF CONVICTIONS ° CLSHFD(1Ç)= I TOTAL SENTENCE ' CLSHED(16)='VIOLENT HISTORY ° CLSPED(17)= 1 SEXUAL (IFFENCE HISTORY-1— • CLSHED(1;>)= 1 FSCAPE HISTORY 8 CLSHED(1°)= 1 NUPBER OF PAROLES 1 CLSHED(2r1)='SUCCESSFUL PAROLES ' rLSHED(21)=.S. FALLURES

r i . N

7 CLSHED -( 2 (?)= 1 ACCOMPLICFS ON PRES. OFF. b

' io CLSHE(23)= 1 PLACE OF EIRTH

CLSHED(74)= 1 MARITAL STATUS ' 41 CLSHEDU'a= 1 RELIGION 1 42 CLSHED(26)= / AGGREGATE . SENTENCF

CLSHED(‘77)= 1 NUMBER OF PEN. TERMS 44 CLSHED(2)= I OUTCOME

CLS1UD(2°)= . A 1.:r AT RELEASE ' 46

CLSHED(30= 1 AGE AT 1ST CONVICTION 1 CLSPFD(31)= 1 AGE AT 1ST COMITIAL

---e71.7"5-H- 4-32)= 1 AGF AT 1ST PEN. TERM INC=fl

r ,k***- FOP THE EYPLANATION OF GETREC SEE BELOW. S'• 1 CALL GETREC(NAME,FPS,RECORD,DONE) 51 IF ( DONE GO TO 999

U**** RETTFR-Dr?''.) IS 1HE FIELD FOR THE SUCCESS OR FAILURE . q?. TYPE=RECORD(2n

Ce**e THIS IS WHERE THE. CONDITION CARDS GO . C**** ANY CONDITIONS SUCH AS ONLY RELEASES SINCE 1972") ARE INSERTED C**** BETWEEN THE CARDS THAT CONTAIN ONLY ASTERISCS (*) WITH A GO TO 1 C**** IF THE CONDITION IS NOT MET. . c*********************************************************************** C**** IF THE TYPE IS NOT SUCC.FAIL,OTH THEN THE RECORD IS IGNORED .

53 IF C TYPE-7FI. 3 ) GO TO 1 54 IF RECORD(4) .GT. 74 ) GO TO 1

c****************************.******************************************* TYPTOT(TYPE)=TYPTOTCTYPE)+1 INC=INC41

_ •

57 DO 4 CLASS=1.32 C**** RFCSTR IS THE STORAGE ARRAY FOR THE DATA . •

f) RECSTR(INC,CLASS)=RECORD(CLASS) 59 4 CPNiINUE

ITEST=INC/2 61 ITEST=IFEST*2 6 1 IF ( (ITEST .FQ. INC) .AND. CH ) GO TO 1 _ 63 DO 5 CLASS=1,37 •

C**** FACT IS AN ARRAY THAT SCALES DOWN THE INPUT DATA TO A USABLE C**** f•;UMPFP THE AGES AND YEARS ARE DIVIDED BY 3 SO THAT THEY C**** CAN 13F i'ISED TO INDEX AN ARRAY

RANGF=RECORDCCLASS)/t-ACT(CrASS) 05 IF R,e.NGF .LT. 1 ) RANGE=1

r**** WE ADD it'!F TO THE TOTAL OF THE PEOPLE IN THE SPECIFIC CATAGORY . SCCIRE(TYPE,CLASS,RANGE)=SCORE(TYPE.CLASSiRANGF)+1

111G -RTOT— IS THE I r e 4 ..I', - —*CLASS . c'7 ̀, RANTOT(CLSSeRANGE)=RANTOT(CLASS,RANGF)+1 (,' . RECTOT=RECTOT+1

C**** CCTINUF UNTIL THE DATA IS ALL READ IN . (9 GO TO 1 7,j Y7° CONTINUE 71 NUMPER=INC 7? DO 11 CLASS=1 ■ 32

DO 6 TYPF=1,3 74 SUHMIN(TYPE)=999 . 75 SW.-CMAX(TYPE)=0 Té; A CONTINUE

C**** TOTRAN IS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF RANGES IN A CATAGORY .

. TOTRAN=MAYARR(CLASS)/FACT(CLASS) DO ln RANGE=1,TOTRAN . C**** IF THE NUMBFP OF CASES IS LESS THAN 10 WE IGNORE IT .

lY J. ( k 4 N101(CLAbbrRANGE) .LI. 10 ) GO 10 1f3 " DO P TYPE=1,3 .,

hl SCORE(TYPErCLASS,RANGE)=SCORE(TYPE.CLASS,RANGE)*100D/RANTOT(CLASS, I RANGE)

C**** IF THE NUMBER OF CASES IS LESS THAN 50 WE DON 8 T USE IT C**** TO COMPUTE THE MAXIMUM PERCENTILES .

IF ( PANTOT(CLASSeRANGE) .LT. 50 ) GO TO - t3 IF ( SUIMIN(TYPE) .GT. SCORE(TYPErCLASSrRANGE) ) SUBMIN(TYPE)=

T SLORE(FYHE,CLASS.RANÙE) 8.4

..i>

IF ( SUHMAX(TYPE) .LT. SCORE(TYPE.CLASS,RANGE) ) SUBMAX(TYPE)=7 SCORE(TYPErCLASS,RANGE)

9 5 2 . CONTI N UE ?-_'.6 1r CONTINUE _ __.— &,1 7 DO 11 TYPE=1,3

C**** COMPOTE THE MAX. AND MIN. PERCENT/LES . CLSMIN(TYPErCLASS)=SUBMIN(TYPE)

wq CLSMTT(TYPE ■ CLASS)=SUBMAX(EYPE) 9 .1

TOTMIN(TYPE)=TOTMIN(TYPE)+SUBMIN(TYPE) , 91 TOTMAX(TYPE)=TOTMAX(TYPE)+SUBMAX(TYPE)

. 9 1. 11 CONTINUE C**** THIS IS THE OUTPUT KOUTINE—FOR THE GLUECK TABLES c,- DO 65 CLASS=1,32 .

9 4 PRINT 11 ' 95 PRINT 106,CLSHED(CLASS)

Yo PRINT ltJJ TOTRAN=MAXARR(CLASS)/FACT(CLASS)

C**** THIS SETS THE LIMIT ON THE SUBRANGES C**** FOR YEARS AND AGES .

cr..? IF ( MAXARR(CLASS) .G1—. 90 ) GO TO 44 C**** FOR OFFENCE TYPES .

99 IF ( MAX(RR(CLASS) .GT. 20 ) GO TO 49 C**** FOR PLACE OF BIRTH .

100 IF ( MAXARR(LLASS) .111. 15 ) 60 rO J4 C**** FOR MONTH OF EVENT (BIRTH RELEASE r ETC. )

1U1 IF ( MAXARR(CLASS) .GT. 10 ) GO TO 59 1 1 2 Do 4n RANP.E=1.TOTRAN

C**** WE NOW OUTPUT THE RANGES ( COMPLETE WITH HEADINGS ) C**k* IF THE RANGE IS EMPTY WE SKIP IT ( AT LEAST ONE RANGE HAS C**** AN ENTRY )

IC3 IF ( PANTOT(CLASSrRANGE) .LT. 10 ) GO TO 40 Tu4.

P R-TNT 1m4

1715 PRINT 119,RANHED(CLASS,RANGE) 106 PRINT lnU , SCORE(1 , CLASS.RANGE),RANTOT(CLASSeRANGE) 1I',7 40 CONTINUE

- 1 P 5 - le --Go - ro - 77- Ili

1 Cg 44 CONTINUE

111.; DO 45 RA N(;F=1, TOTRAN

111 IF ( RANTOT (CLASS,RANGE ) .LT . 10 ) GO TO 45

11? PEINT 1:1 4

113 ' I1=RANGE*3

114 12=11+3

115 Pk I NT 111 .11e I2

— Ile:. • PRINT IUU.SCORE(1 , CLASS.RANC)E),RANTUTULASS/RANGE)

117 45 CONTINUE

11; GO TO 65 , ,

119 49 CONTINUE

12i7 DO 50 RANGE=1.TOTRAN ' ......._ .....

121 IF ( RANTOT(CLASSeRA.NGE) .LT. 10 ) GO TO 50.

172 PRINT 14

123 PRINT 112,OFFTYP(RANGE)

— 124 FR-INT 1 UU , SCORE (1FILASS , KAN(3E),RANTOI(CLASSeRANGE)

125 50 CONTINUE

12,.■ ro TO 65 .

12( 54 CONTINUE 125'2

00 55 RAGE=1,TOTRAN

12Y IF ( RANTOT(CLASS,RANGE) .LT. 10 ) GO TO 55 1 3 . PRINT 1T4

131 PRINT lli.PLORBR(RANGE)

—132 PTINT l'ITLre SC °RE (1 oLLASSeRANCIE),RANTOT(CLASS•ROFOET _

133 55 CONTINUE

124 no TO 05

175 59 CONTINUE

13é, DO 60 RANGE=1,TOTRAN

137 IF ( 1.ANT0T(CLASS,RANGE) .LT. 10 ) GO TO 60 PRINT 1.4

13g PRINT 114,M0NTH(RANGE) ----1 -4'n - ----FR-TNT- t.,_ , .' , • 1 " ,, •,.. I • • . % ■

141 . e CONTINUE

142 05 PRINT 10.CLSMAX(1.CLASS) , CLSMIN(1.CLASS),CLSMAX(1,CLAS5)- $CLSMn(1,CLASS)

C**** END or OUTPUT ROUTIN FOR THE TABLES PROPER .

143 p99Q CONTINUE •

144 ISTART=1 .

. . .

145 INCP=1 --C-M* IF 1HI5 IS A H CHECK RUN WE USE ONLY !HE DAIA iAI WL-USED - IN - C**** SETTINr UP THE TABLES . ( IE. EVERY SECOND DATA ITEM )

146 IF C CH ) INCR=2 C**** NUMTAP IS THE NUMBER OF DIFFERENT SCORE SETS THAT IS WANTED . C**** THAT IS IF YOU WANT TABLES FOR CLASSES 1.2.3.4.5 AND ALSO C**** FOR CLASSES 6,7.8,9,1n ThEN NUMTAB WOULD HE 2 . C**** NUMTAB CANNOT EXCEED 10 .

147 NUMTAB=4 --r**** NUM IS THE I- ALE CHAT IS PRESENTLY-MITNTE-VOTKED—n .

14S 66 NUM=0

14g f) 7 NUM=NUM+1

1 50 IF C NUM . UT. NUMTAB ) GO TO 99998

151 H1GH=O ------•

15? LOW=i3

C**** SEE SUUROUT1NE TEST FOR AN EXPLANATION OF HOW IT WORKES . '153 CALL TEST(OUTeNUM) 154' ------- no -7 7-minx=1,5

155 INDEx=owr(iluDrx) C**** T1-1IS SETS THE MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM SCORES SC) THAT THE C**** SCORE RANGES CAN PE SET UP .

WYE

156 --11, •LOW=LOW+CLS-ffTN(1,INDEX) • 157 HIGH=HIGHfCLSMAX(1,INDEX) 15 CONTINUE

C**** DELTA IS THE SIZE OF THE RANGE . 159 DELTA=(HIGH-L0J)/10 16 - ! DO 75 N=1,10 1()1 DO 75

C**** SCOREC IS THE TOTAL NUMRER OF CASES IN EACH SCORE RANGE . SCOREC(N,I)=U

163 75 CONTINUE C**** NOW WE START rHE COMPUTATION OF THE NUMBER OF CASES THAT C**** FALL INTO EACH SCORING RANGE .

164 DO 9n INC=ISTART,PUMPER,INCR cscoRr=n,

16 6 DO O IINDEX=1,5 1 67 INDFX=OUT(IINDEX)

C**** IF THr—RECORD IS UNUSABLE OR IF THE NUMBETFOT cesrs—is C**** LFSS THAN in THE THF SCORE IS THE AVERAGE OF THE MAXIMUM C*** SCORE AND THE MINIMUM SCORE"FOR THAT CLASS .

IF ( RECSTR(INC,INDEX) .GT, MAXARR(INDEX) ) GO TO 79 1f-, 9 IF ( PANTOT(INDEX , RECSTR(INC,INDFX)/FACT(INDEX)) .LT. 10 )G0 TO 79

C**** CHSCOPF IS THE SCORE THAT A CONVICT WOULD RECIEVE . 17n CSCORF=CSCORE+SCORE(1rINDEX•RECSTR(INC,INDEX)/FACT(INDEX)) . 171 (--, r) TO ,u1

- '172-- (9 CSCDRE=cScORETTCLSMIN(1,INDEx)+CLSMAx(1,1NDETM -72-- 177 .r CONTINUE

C**** THIS FINDS WHICH RANGE AN INMATE FALLS INTO 174 175 N=K+1

IF ( CSCORE .GF, (LOW+N*DELTA) ) GO TO 85 IF ( t .GT. 10 )

17t. SCOREC(N , RECSTR(INC..2))=SCOREC(N,RECSIR(INCe28))+1 -179 9T uoFrINuF

PR INT 1r9, (CLSHED (OUT (I ) ) ,I=1 ,S) PF, INT 115

1é.? DO 95 1=1,10 C*** ALPHA IS THE PERCENTAGE OF SUCCESSES IN A PARTICULAR RANGE .

ALPHA=0 IF ( (SCOREC(I,1)+SCOREC(1.,2)) .GT. 0.5 ). IALPHA=((SCOREC(I , 1)*100.0)/((SCOREC(I,1)+SCOREC(Ie2))*1.0))

1 F5 PRINT .? A* - • fel" '* p HA,SCOREC(1.1)+ $SCOREC ( I,2)

186 95 CONTINUE C**** DO THE NEXT TABLE .

1F ,7 GO TO 67 . . . . 1er. 99998 IF ( .NOT. CH ) GO TO 99999

C**** IF THIS IS A CHECK RUN DO ALL THE TABLES OVER AGAIN C**** FOR THE DATA ITEMS NOT DONE THE FIRST TIME THROUGH .

---M-ART=2 CH=.FALSE.

191 Go TO e, 6 12 Q9 999 CONTINUE

C**** OUTPUT FORMATS . •

193 in FORMAT ( 1-0,T51,2(I4.4X)) 194 1 r,1 FORMAT (",////,T.50,'(%SUCC.(CASES') 195 1 1.3 FOPMAT ( 1 -0,T1),55( 1 '))

r • • fin. -------------- 1 9 7 1 1 )6 FORMAT (",gX,A30) 19E FORMAT (",' MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = ',I3,/,

' MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS =

• MAXIMUM PERCNi -UT FE WEN ;1 -3 ;77/

1 t-+ 11 V)RMAT ( 1'1 TAI>3L1 FOR: ',A 3(i )pin ?u 11. U■ PMAT ( 1 4' ,T32,A15)

111 FORMAT ( "+",1- 32,1?4, ' - '3 ,12) 2 -) 4- f - 112 FORMAT ( 11 ,T3?,A1r) 2r .'i 113 FORMAT ( 2 n 4 11/f FURMA.T ( 14-1 ,1. 32,A15) 2C5 115 F't.)!VoAT ",110,'RAtI(E 1 ,T30, 'PERCENT SUCC.'•T45/ 'TOTAL CASES') 27e:- 11 F-01-CFAT UsI4.2 X, 'TO ie2X•1.4,T.i(l,F5 .1.1- 45,13) 7%, ? STOP

END

SUbROUTINF nETREC(NAMEeEPSeRECORDeDONE) (**** GFTREC READS IN A RECORD AND REPLACFS ALL 7EROS C**** FI AS ,'LL INCORRECT DATA e AND COMPUTES THE AGE VARIABLES . C**** AFTER THE LAST VARIARLE CARD IS READ IN IT SETS DONE=.TRUE. .

CHARACTFR* -2O NAME 211 INTFGEF, *2 FP.S*4 FRECORD(32),MAXARR(32) 212 LOGICAL DOPE

—213 ---TriVTA— Ur3FX-U-R/T?,95,12,95,6,1L,95., 1?., 95,15,e*29ed*(ré -k-57,3i3- *-5- , 6,14e-'et'e7 ..7.93,4*95/

214 DOWE=.FALSE. 215 READ(5,100,END=999)NAME 'FPS r(RECORD(I),I=1,28) 21A 1n0 FORMAT (A2Rei7e412,11eU2e9I1,12i511) 211 IF ( FPS .GE. 3U'UlUO ) FPS =1000002

IF ( FPS .LE. 1COUOU ) FPS =100°001 219 RECORD(29)=RECORD(4)-RECORD(2)

--22 ,7"---------r-F -T—RETuR1ul) .G1. RF.CORD(5) ) RECO1 --(è9)=RECO-RUT791-1- 2 21 i C (RFCORD(2)*RFCORD(4)) .LT. 1 ) RECORD(29)=U 2 22 DO 4 J=1,3 223 RECORD(29+J)=PECORD(54- J*2) - RECORD(2) 224 IF ( RECORD(1) RECORD(4+J*2) ) RECORD(29+J)=RFCORD(29+.11)-1 225 IF ( (RECORD(7)*RECORD(51 - J*2)) .LT. 1 ) RECORD(29+j)=n 72A 4 CONTINUE 227 DO 5 .1=1,32 72s - r FE C-0 D () 1 . XAkK ) ) C 0 RD ( 22'; IF ( P.ECORD(J) .ea. ) RECORD(J)=MAXARR(J)+1

CONTINUE 231 RETUR'l 23? 999 Dn ln J=1,32 233 RECOPD(J)=MAXARR(J)+2 234 12 CONTINUF 235 NAME='

—773 Fps t_1 -=z1NUU01 23? DONE=.TRUE. 23 • RETURN 239 END

• • 2 41/ SUBROUTINE,TEST(OUT,NUM) 241 INTEGER*? D1JY(5t),OUT(5)

C**** Durmy CONTAINS THE- INDICIES OF THE CLASSES THAT YOU WISH C**** TO USE WHEN YOU SET UP SPECIFIC TABLES . C**** NUI ; IS THE TAALF SET TRAT YOU ARE PRESENTLY WORKING ON . C**** IF YOU WANTED THE FOLLOWING TABLES : c**** TAC-LE1-1,5,27,2,31

TAnLE -2-7,3,6,9,11 c**** TAt?LE3-23,24,25,2b (NOTE THAT THERE ARE ONLY 4 CLASSES ) 1**** YOU WOULD REPLACE THE DATA CARD WITH : C**** DATA DummYi1,5,27,?S,31,2,3,6,9,11,23,24,25,26,26.35*1/ C**** -)TE THAT WHEN LESS THAN 5 CLASSES ARE USES YOU MUST PAD C**** THE REV'4IterER .wITH THE LAST CLASS USED . C**** ALSO THE TOTAL NUER OF VARIABLES MUST EQUAL 50 HENCE C**** WE PAD WITH 75 I'S . C**** THIS CASE WI WOULD SET NUMTAB (SEE ABOVE) EQUAL TO 3

242 DATA DUr''MY/12,13,14,17,32,1,3,6,21,29,2,5,8,9,10,1i!...23,30,31,31, '13*1/4

243 DO 5 1=1,5 244 0UT(T)=DW."MY((NUN-1)*5+II — - 245 5 CONTINUE

RITURN 247 ENO

- 37 -

XVI CROSS TABULATION

Cross tabulation of results is useful for deter-

mining whether two or more factors are related. Since we

construct the evaluation tables with mutually exclusive

categories, information with respect to inter-relatedness

of factors is necessary.

•

•

THIS VEPSION or—rIss—r ) 1 E' A ; _ J,1E0SES ONLY LEASE 6.02 STATISTICM PACKAGE FOR THE SOCIAL SCIENCES SPSSH —

SPACE ALLOCATION FOR TH/S RUN..

TOTAL AMOUT RUGUESTED 40000 F:YTES

50 200 400

DEFAULT TRANSPACE ALLOCATION

MAX NO OF TRANSFORMATIONS—PERMITTED MAX NO OF RECODE VALUES MAX NO OF ARITHM.OR LOG.OPERATIONS

RT-SULTING WORKSPACE ALLOCATION

5000 BYTES

35UUU BYTES-

WUN NP,ME CORELATION OF PREDICTIVE FACTORS — e4ARIAHLF LIST M0NBIRoYERBIR,M0NREL.YERREL.TYPREL,MON10FF,YFR10FF.MO11COM,

.. 4-YER1COMMON1PEN,YER1PEN,PRECON.SERCON,NOCON,TOTSENTeVIOLOFFe ''SFXOFF,ESCAPE,NOPAR,SUCPAReMSBAD,ACCOM.PLOBIR,MAR,RELIG, 4-AGGSENT.NOTERM,SOF

L.-INPUT FOPMAT FIXED(27X,4F2.0,F1.0,8F2.0,9F1.0.F2.0.5F1.0)

ACCORDING TO YOUR INPUT FORMAT, VARIABLES ARE TO RE READ AS FOLLOWS

Vf1 RIABLF FORMAT RECORD -. "COLUMNS

MONRIR F 2. 0 1 2— 2S YFROIR F 2. 0 1 30— 31 MUNHEL F 2. Li YERPEL F 2. 0 1 34 — 35 TYPREL F 1. 0 1 76— 76 MON1OFF F 2. 0 1 37 — 38 YFR1 —, EF F 2. 0 ' i 39 — 40 mON1C0M F 2. 0 1 41— 42 YER1C0M F 2. 0 1 43— 44 MON1PFN F 2. 0 1 45— 46 YFRIPt-N F C. U 1 4f— 4g PRECON F 2. 0 1 49— 50 SERCON F 2. 0 1 51— 52 NOCON F 1. 0 1 53— 53 TOTSFNT F 1. 0 - 1 " 54— 54 VIOLOFF F 1. 0 1 55— 55 SrXOFF F 1. 0 1 56— 56 ESCAPE F 1. 0 1 57— 57 N-UPAR F f. Li 1 5 — 55 SUCPPR F 1. 0 1 59— 59 MSRAD F 1. 0 1 60— 60 ACCOM F 1. 0 1 61— 61

OF SPS-S—I-5-70 PE USED FOR TOUTTIIC PUIS ONLY UP /31777 - 111,-- CORFLATIO F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

ACCORDING TO YOUR INPUT FORMAT, VARIABLES ARE TO BE READ AS FOLLOWS

VARIABLE FORMAT RECORD COLUMNS

PLonitz F 2. 0 1 62- 63 MAR F 1. 0 1 64- 64 RtLIG F 1. 0 1 65- 65 AGGSENT F .1 -0 --------1-- 66- - 66 - --- MOTERM F 1. 0 1 67- 67 SOF F 1. 0 1 68- 68

THE INPUT FORMAT PROVIDES FOR 2ï, VARIABLES. db WILL BE RI-AD IT PROVIDES FOR 1 RECORDS ('CARDS ° ) PER CASE. A MAXIMUM OF 68 'COLUMNS ARE USED ON A RECORD.

t--MISSING VALUES MONBIR TO SOF (0) 4.-VAR LABELS

x--MONBIRoMONTH OF BIRTH/ 'YEREIIR,YEAR OF BIRTH/ 4- 1ONRELeMONTH OF RELEASE/ L-YhRRE-LeYEAR OF RELEAbEJ '-TYPREL.TYPE OF RELEASE- STATUS / ;-1'1ON1OFF,MONTH OF 1ST OFFENCE/ /-YER1OFF,YEAR OF 1ST OFFENCE/

----4MON1COM,MONTR - OF - 1ST . COMMISSION/ e-YER1COM,YEAR OF 1ST COMMISSION/ -MON1PEN,MONTH. OF 1ST PEN. SENT./ ,4ER1PEN,YEAR OF 1ST PFN. SENT./ --ijRECON;TYFE Or PRES NF OFFENCE' 4,SERCON,MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE/ eNOCONfici OF CONVICTIONS/ .JOTSENT,TOTAL SENTENCE.-INC z CONC.-/

----- VIOLOFFVIOLENT-OFFENCE HISIORY/ 'SEXOFF,SEXUAL OFFENCE HISTORY/ ,-ESCAPE,ESCAPE HISTORY/ ,NOPARt# OF PAROLES/

■-)SULHARig SUCEbSFUL PAROLES7--- fISHADeti OF UNSUCCESSFUL M.S.'S/ eACCOMeACCOMPLICES IN PRESENT OFF./ L-PLOBIR,PLACE OF BIRTH/ , --MAR,MAR ITAL - STATUS/ - c-RELIG,RELIGIOUS BACKGROUND/ 'AGGSENT,AGGREGATE SENTENCE °TIME IN JAIL-/ ,--NOTERMe# OF PEN. TERMS/

LAbÉi VALUE LABELS

41MONHIR,MONREL,MON1OFF.MON1COM.MON1PEN (1) JAN. (2) FEH. (3) LMAR. (4) APR. (5) MAY (6) JUNE (7) JULY (8) AUG. (9) ,./SEP. (10) O•T. - (11) - NOV. (12) DEC. / ,TYPREL (1) EXPIREY (2) MANDITORY (3) PAROLE (6) OTHER / PRECONeSERCON (1)RAPE (2)I.A. ON FEMALE (3)I.A. ON MALE v(4)SEXUAL -0TH. - (5)ASSAULTS (6)R(WBERY (7) 13 AND E (P)ESCAPE TT-91- 1-R11-1-M.V. (1U)THEFI-OI1. (1-TIPOSST- S.(a. (1-2TFFKUDF

• URP CIR

N.P.S. cr—sTss is TO HE

CnPFLATIGiv OF PREDICTIVE FACTORS rz-s/31/77.

'(13)DRUGS (14) HABITUAL (15)D.S.O. (16)WEAPONS (17)CONT. TO i.D. 1418)0THER - (19)HOMOCIDE (20)KIDDNAPPING (21)HOSTAGES (22)CONTEMPT v(23)NECRO. OFF. (24)MISCHIEF (25)ARSO4 (26)NEGLIGENCE '127)CONSPIRICY.(28)PERJURY (29)EXTORTION / 'NOCON (1)1 TO 3 (2)4 TO 6 (3)7 TO 10 (4)11 TO 15 (5)0VER 15 '-'16)UVhR 511 / e-TOTSENT,AGGSENT (1)-2 YRS. (2)2 TO 5YRS. (3)6 TO 10YRS. 14)11 TO 15YRS. (5)0VER 15YRS. •(6)0VER 79YRS./ '-VIOLOFF.SEXOFF (1)NONE (2)YES (3)1 TO 3 (4)0VER 3 (5)0THER /

" -- J-ESCAFE— (1)YES - (2)NO (3)0THER kNOPARPMSBAD (1)NONE (2)1 TO 3 (3)4 TO 6 (4)0VER 7 (5)0THER / ,pLoRIR (1)NFLD. (2)NS. (3)N.B. (4)P.E.I. (5)0UE. (6)ONT.

(?)MAN.. (8)SASK. (9)ALTA. (10)B.C. '(11)N.W.T. (13)U.K. (14)0THER/ ' WIDUWt0--t.5)SLYKR-Alh1) (4)UTVURCED T5-)C. LAW

‘(6)MARRIED (7)0THER / 42ELIG (1)BAPTIST (2)CATHOLIC (3)PROT. OTH. (4)ANGLICAN 4 .(5)NONE (6)0THER

------ OTERM --(1)NONE - (2)1 (3)2 (4)3 (5)4 (6)0VER 5 MOTHER / (1)SUCESS (2)FAILURE (3)0THER /

4)RINT FORMATS MONBIR TO SOI (0) 4-1NPUT MEDIUM CUD

fl OF LAStS CROSSTABS VARIABLES=SERCON(1,29)/SOF(1,3)/MONBIR(1,12)/PRECON(1,29)/

NOCON(1.6)/SUCPAR(1,5)/PLOBIR(1,14)/RELIG(1/6)/ TABLES=SERCON BY SOF.MONBIR,PRECON/NOCON.SUCPARePLOBIR,RELIG

***** "CROSSTABS" PROBLEM REQUIRES 8700 BYTES WORKSPACE NOT INCLUDING VALUE LABELS *****

READ INPUT DATA

VEAKION-71T -S-PS-S IS 10 dE USED FOR ACADEMIC PLOOSES own' CORELATIMOUF PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

PAGE 0173177T

DATA TRANSFORMATION DONE UP'TO - THÎS POINT..

NO OF TRANSFORMATIONS 0 NO OF RECODE VALUES 0

WU OF APIEHM. OR LOG. (WERAilUNS THE AMOUNT OF TRANSPACE REQUIRED IS 0 BYTES

FINISH

L END OF JOH. 71 CONTROL CARDS WERE PROCESSED.

LI ERRORS WERE DETECTED.

COLUMN 165 249

TOTAL 12.6 1Q.0 (CONTINUED)

291 27.3 18.3 22.2 _ _

. a 1309

0.6 100.0 357 239

Turs-- vren-e-T- s-ps-. à If I #' .DEMIC PU VIES ONCY -fli.731 -7-77- "PAGE CDRFLATIO F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

FILE NuNAME (CREATION DATE = 08/31/77). • * * * * * * * * * * * * * CR O S S T A BUL A T ION 0 F * * * * * * * * * * * *

SERCL, MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY NOCON # OF CONVICTIONS * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * e * * * * * * PAGE

NOCON COUNT I

ROW PCT II TO 3 4 TO 6 7 TO 10 11 TO 15 OVER 15 OVER 50 ROW

COL PCT I TOTAL

TOT PCT I 1 I ? I 3 I 4 I 5 I. 6 I SFRCON I I I 1 I I I

1 I 6 1 61 91 2 1 81 0 ! 31 TWAF, 1 -1.4 I 19.4 1 , 29.0 1 6.5 1 25.8 1 0.0 1 e.4

I 3.6 I 2.4 I 2.5 I 0.8 I 2.7 I 0.0 I

I 0.5 I 0.5 I 0.7 I 0.2 I 0.6 I 0.0 I

I 1 I 1 I I I

2 I 18 I 13' I --- 10 -- I --- • '5 / 6 'I 0 I . 52

I.A. ON FEMALF 1 34.6 I 25.0 1 19.2 I 9.6 I 11.5 I 0.0 I 4.0

I 10.9 I 5.2 I 2.8 I 2.1 I 2.1 I 0.0 I

I 1.4 1 1.0 I 0.8 I 0.4 I 0.5 I 0.0 I

1 1 1 1 1 TF I 73 I 31 1 I 21 1 I 31 0 1 10

I.A. Om mALE I 3n.0 1 10.0 I 20.0 I 10.0 1 30.0 -I 0.0 I 0.8

I 1.is, I 0.4 I 0.6 I 0.4 I 1.0 I 0.0 I

I 0.2 I •'0.1 - - I -0;2 - 1 - ' 0:1 I 0.2 I 0.0 I . 1 I I 1 1 1 I

41 141 or 61 0 1 II C I 21 SExuAL -OTH.- I 66.7 I 0.0 I 28.6 I 0.0 1 4.8 L 0.0 I 1.6

1 i. . Ii.i • . .0 I. . 0.0 1

I 1.1 I 0.0 I 0.5 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I

I I 1 I I : 1 I

51 141 131 18 1 171 12 1 21 76 ASSAULTS I 18.4 I 17.1 1 • 2 3 '.'7.-- r----. 22.4 I 15.8 1" 2.6 I 5.8

I 8.5 I 5.2 I 5.0 I 7.1 I 4.1 1 25.0 I

I 1.1 I 1.0 I 1.4 I 1.3 I 0.9 / 0.2 1

I 1 1 I I I I

ROBBERY

8 AND E

Ô I li 1 44 1 4( 1 75 1 5( 1 . 2-7- I eua 1 8 .5 I 22.0 I 23.5 I 26.5 I 18.5 ,I 1.0 1 15.3 I 10.3 I 17.7 I 13.2 I 22.2 I 12.1 1 25.0 I 1 1.3 1 3.4 1 3.6 1 4.0 I 2.8 . I 0.2 1 I I I • I . I I I

7 I 29 I 93 1 145 I 105 1 123 I . 2 I 497 I 5.8 I 1P.7 I 29.2 I 21.1' I 24.7 I 0.4 I 38.0 1 17.6 I 37.3 I 40.6 I 43.9 I 42.3 I . 25.0 I

U.L 1 I- 2.e- I

1 .1 1

' Th15-VE -FeSI -ON --CF SPSS IS f0 BE USED FOR ACADEM 11',', _ o ' G0/3fTe? PAGE- 1 CORELATIOdIF PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

i FILE ',011FIE (CRFATION DATE = Ot731177) ._ _

e * * *e* * * * * *k* * * * * * cRossTABLILATI ofq oF * * * * * * * * * * *** * * *i SERCOP' MOST sulous OFFENCE BY NOCON # OF CONVICTIONS * * * * * * * * * * k * * * * * * * * * *'..`C * * * * * « * * * * * « * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE , (I

NOCON

COUNT I ,

ROW PCT 11 TO 3 4 TO 6 7 TO 10 11 TO 15 OVER 15 OVER 50 ROW COL PCT I - TOTAL

TOT PCT I 1 I 21 31 4 1 51 61 SERCON I I I 1 1 1 I

i. 1 41 101 81 11 21 01 25 ES-CAPE 1 16.0 I 40.0 1 ,32.0 1 4.0 I b.() I U.0 1 1-79

I 2.4 I 4.0 I 2.2 I 0.4 I 0.7 I 0.0 I

1 0.3 I 0.8 I 0.6 1 0.1 I 0.2 I 0.0 1

1 I I I I I I

q I 3 I '10' I' -- 20 - 1 - '13" I 11 1 0 I 57 THEFT - M.V. I 5. ,.5 1 17.5 I 35.1 I 22.8 I 19.3 I 0.0 I 4.4

I 1.e, 1 4.0 I 5.6 I 5.4 I 3.8 I 0.0 I 1 0.2 I 0.8 I 1.5 I 1.0 I 0.8 I 0.0 I

THFFT-OTH.

POSS. S.G

FRAUDS

r 1 1 1 I 1 I

5 I 14 1 31 I 17 I 11 I 0 I 78

6.4 I 17.9 I 39.7 I 21.8 I 14.1 I 0.0 I 6.0

3.G I 5.6 1 8.7 I 7.1 I 3.8 I 0.0 I

0.4 I • 1.1 1 " --2:4 -- "I• ---1':3" -- I 0.8 1 0.0 I I I I 1 1 1

I 14 I 5 I 11 / 0 I 44 I 31.8 1 11.4 I 25.0 I 0.0 I 3.4

0.0 1

0.4 I O.& I 0.0 I 1 1 I

4 I 31 131 61 • 481 2 I

5.3 I - 1 -.9 -- I - - 1 -7:1 --1---- 7'.9--I - 63.2 I 2.6 1

2.4 I 1.2 1 3.6 I 2.5 I 16.5 I 25.0 I

0.3 I 0.2 I 1.0 I . 0.5 I 3.7 I 0.2 I I I I I • I I

1 3 1 5 1 1 41 31 4 1. 0 T 19.

I 15.8 I 26.3 I 21.1 I 15.8 I 21.1 I 0.0 I 1.5

I 1.R I 2.0 I 1.1 I 1.3 1 1.4 1 0.0 I

I 0.2 I 0.4 1 0.3 I 0.2 I 0.3 I 0.0 . 1

I I ' - 1 - - - - I 1 / 1

161 51 51 7 1 21 11 01 20

I 25.0 I 25.0 1 35.0 I 10.0 I 5.0 I 0.0 I

I 3. 0 I 2.0 I 2.0 1 0.8 1 0.3 I 0.0 I

I 0 .4 1 U.4 1------(7.75----- 7 . 1 0.a 1

DRUGS

WEAPONS

-1 12 I

-1

"U I

11 • I 51 9 11.4 20.5

0.4 I 0.7 I

76 5.8

1.5

(CONTINUED)

COLUMN 165 249 357 239 291 8 1309

TOTAL 12.6' 19.0 27.3 18.3 22.2 0.6 100.0

- -THIS - VE.C11/-07"--- S-P- . _ I . ii• •, IL el 1 4 LY 081-31777 --1,---phG--; CORELATIO F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S. i

I FILE NONAMF (CREATION DATE =08/31177) I

.... __. .. ****************** CR ossi-ABLILA T 10 N 0 F * * * * * * * * * * * * * * k *

SERCOR MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY NOCON # OF CONVICTIONS * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * : : * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE

NOCON

COUNT I

ROW PCT 11 TO 3 4 TO 6 7 TO 10 11 TO 15 OVER 15 OVER 50 ROw • COL PCT I ' TOTAL

ToT PCT I 1 1 21 31 61 5 I 61 SERCON I / 1 I I I I

171 0 I 1 I 01 01 01 01 1 CONE. IC -7-7.-D. 1 u.0 1 luU.0 1 U.0 1 U.0 r u.0 1 u.0 1 0.1

1 0.0 1 0.4 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0 0 0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

I I I 1 I 1 I •U I 3 I -- "1 '1 - ---- - 4 - I • - --- 0 - I ' 2 I 0 I 10

OTHER 1 30.0 I 10.0 1 40.0 I 0.0 I 20.0 I 0.0 1 0.8

I 1.R I 0.4 1 1.1 I 0.0 I 0.7 1 0.0 I

I 0.2 I 0.1 1 0.3 1 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.0 I

1 I i 1 1 -r- i 19 I 22 I 6 I 6 1 3 I 7 I 0 1 44

HoMociaL I 50. 0 1 13.6 I 13.6 I 6.g I 15.9 , 1 0.0 I 3.4

1 13.3 1 7.4 I 1.7 I 1.3 I 2.4 I 0.0 I . 1 1.7 I' - 0.5 - I -- 0.5 I-0;2 - 1 .0.5 I 0.0 I

I 1 1 I 1 I 1 2n 1 01 11 fil 01 31 01 4

1 0.0 I 25.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 75.0 I 0.0 1 0.3 1.--.-, o

0.1 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.0 I

1 I I I I - I I

221 01 01 11 01 01 01 1 CONTEmPT 1 0.0 1.- o;n-r - irso.o 1 0:0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.1

1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I

1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.1 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 I.

I I 1 1 I . I I ?4 I 0 1 11 51 1 I U 1 0 I s

MISCHIEF I 0.0 I 16.7 I 50.0 I 33.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.5

, I 0.0 1 0.4 I 0.8 I 0.8 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.2 1 0.2 1 0.0 I 0.0 I

I I • r - -- I - I I 1 25 1 7 1 9 I •7 1 2 I - 1 I 0 I 26

ARSoN I 26.9 1 34.6 I 26.9 I 7.7 I 3.8 I 0.0 I 2.0

I 4.2 I 3.6 1 2.0 I 0.8 I 0.3 I - 0.0 I -07.0- i

COLUMN 165 249 357 239 291 8 1309

TOTAL 12.6 19.0 27.3 18.3 22.2 0.6 100.0 (CONTINUED)

KIDDNAPPING U.0

1• 0.0 I

THIS VETiliO-N Hb UsFD FOR CORELATIC F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

FILE hür.AMC (CREATION DATE = 08/31/77)

OR/51777

,. * * * * * * * * * * * e * * * * * *. CROSS TABULATION OF * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SERCON MOST SFRIOUS OFFENCE BY NOCON P OF CONVICTIONS

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 4 0

NO CON

COUNT I

ROW PCT Il TO 3 4 TO 6 7 TO 10 11 TO 15 OVER 15 OVER 50 ROW

COL PCT I . . _ _ . . . , . _ _ _ . _ _ . . _ _ . . .. _ . _ TOTAL

TOT PCT I 1 I 2 I 3 I 4 I 5 I 6 I SERCON I I I / I 1 I

261 31 21 0 1 1 I 0 I 01 6 NFULICILUE i 5U.I1 I 35.3 I , 0.0 I 16.( 1 0.0 i U.0 1 u.5

T 1.S I 0.8 I 0.0 / 0.4 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

I 0.2 I 0.2 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

1 I I I I I I

27 1 0 I • 0 - I - - 0 " / 1 I 0 I 0 I 1 CONSPIRICY I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1

I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.4 I 0.0 - I 0.0 I

I 0.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

--1 I 1 1 .1 -1-- I

PERJURY

. I I I I 1

2Q I 0 I 11 21 01 OI. Or 3 EXTORTION I 0.0 I 33.3 I 66.7 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.2

1 0.0 J. U.4 1 U.b .1 T)- .0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 1 0.0 I 0.1 1 0.2 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I I I I I I I

COLUMN 165 249 357 239 291 8 1309

TOTAL 12.6 19.0 -- - - 27;3' - - 18*.3 - - 22.2 ' 0.6 100.0

NUMFIER OF MISSING OBSERVATIONS = 549

281 01 1 I DI 01 01 01 1 I 0.0 I 100.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.4 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I • 0.0 I 0.1 --I --- o -;o --- r . - 0.0 -- I 0.0 - I 0.0 I

I I

• 1

THIS VFleN OF SPSS IS TO BE USED FOR ACADEMIC PU•SES ONLY 0 R731/77 • PAGE - CORELATIP )F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

FILE NONAME (CREATION DATE = 08 1 31/77)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CROSSTABULATION 0 F * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SERCOP MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY SUCPAR 110F SUCESSFUL PAROLES

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 1 0

SERCON

RKTE

SUC PAR COUNT I

•

R" TOTAL

TOT PCT I 1 I 2 I 3 1 4 1 5 I I I I I -------- I I

1 1 141 01 11 1 I 15 I 31

I 45.2 I U-.--a---1 5.2 I 5.2 I 48.4 I 2.4,

I 3.1 I 0.9 I 3.6 I 1.1 I 2.1 I

I 1.1 I 0. 0 I 0.1 I 0.1 I 1.1 I

, I

I.A. ON FFMALE I 32.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I 3.7 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I 1.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 1 / 41 01 01

I.A. ON MALF I 40.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I 0.9 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I 0 .3.'I' 0.0 1-

- 2- 1--

3.8 I 64.2:

2.2 I 4.7-.

0.2 I 2.6' '

0 I -6

0.0 I 60.0-> 0.0 I

L-z+ ,

53 I 4.0

1 10.

1 0.8

4 I 21 DI 0 1 21 171 21 SEXUAL -OTH.- 1 9.5 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 9.5 1 81.0 1 1.6

I U.4 1 U.11 I Li .0 1 2.2 1. : 2.5 1

I 0.2 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.2 I ' 1.3 1

I I I 1 1 . I

51 22 I 0 I 2 I e 145 1 ASSAULTS - ' I 28 ..6 I 0.0 I ---Z.6 1 10.4 1 58.4 I

I 4.8 I 0.0 I 7.1 I 8.9 I 6. 2 I

I 1.7 I 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.6 I 3.4 I

I I I I I . I

77 5.9

B AND E

6 I 66 I 3 I 5 I 1 e 1 TT5 I 20-1- I 32.8 I 1.5 I 2.5 I 6.0 I 57.2 I 15.3 I 14.4 I 30.0 I 17.9 I 13.3 I 15.8 I I 5.0 1 0.2 I 0.4 I 0.9 I 8.8 I I • 1

7 I 176 I 4 I 15 I 34 I 268 I 497 I 35.4 I 0.8 I 3.0 I 6.8 I 53.9 I 37.9 I 38.5 I 40.0 I 53.6 I 37.8 I 36.9 1

ROBBERY

COLUMN 457

TOTAL 34.8 (CONTINUED)

10 28 90 727 1312

0.8 2.1 6.9 55.4 100.0

1 1 .G POSS. S

08131 m le- -P -A G E."" ---'-/ i THIS -W*0N or SPSS IS TO HE USED FOR ACADEMIC P41,0SES ONLY CORELATI' ,F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

FILE NCNAME (CREATION DATE = 08/31/77)

* * * *• * * * * * * * * * * * * * * C R OS STABULA TION 0 F dr * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SERCO:1 MOST SFRIOUS OFFENCE BY SUCPAR # OF SUCESSFUL PAROLES

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 2

SUCPAR COUNT I

COL PCT I ROw PCT INewE F EW MOST- --10=!= l'4/A ------- Tgrk

TOT PCT I 1 I 21 3! 41 51 SERCOM I I 1 I I I

31 12 I 0 1 2 1 0 I 111 25 ESLAPE 1 05.0 I U.0 1 • 7.ii .0 • 1 44.0 1 1.9.

I 2.6 I 0.0 I 7.1 I 0.0 I 1.5 I

1 0.9 I 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.0 I 0.8 I

I I I I I I

9 1 16 I ' ' 2 -1------2- r---- 2 - '1 - 35 I 57 THEFT-!0 .V. I 28.1 I 3.5 I 3.5 I 3.5 I 61.4 I 4.3

I 3.5 I 20.0 I 7.1 I 2.2 I 4.8 , I

1 1.2 T 0.2 I 0.2 I 0.2 I 2.7 I

-1 1 1 I . 1 1 ln I 291 DI 1 r 61 421 78

THEFT - 0TH. I 37.2 I 0.0 1 1.3 I 7.? 1 53.8. -1 5.9

6.3 I 0.0 I 3.6 1 6.7 1 '5.8:I

2.2 r " - 0.- 0--1---0":1 -/-- 0.5- 1 3.2" 1 1 1 1 I- - 1

13 r 1 1 0 I 3 I 27 I 44

2 0 .5 I 2.3 I 0.0 I 6.8 I 61'.4 I 3.4

1.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.2 I 2.1

FRAUDS

I I.

12 I 36 I 0 I 0 I P I.32 76

" - 1 - 47.4 .- / --- 0.0-- 1---0-:0---1-- 10“:5 -- 1 -• 42.1 I 5.8

1 7.9 1 0.0 1 0.0 I 8.9 I 4.4 I

2.7 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.6 1 . .4 I .

15 i 9 .1 U 1 U 1 d 1 8 1 7-9 DRUGS I 47.4 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 10.5 I 42.1 1 1.4

1 2.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 2.2 I 1.1 I

1 0.7 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.2 1 0.6. I _

r 1 r- - I I" " 1

16 1 91 0! 0 1 31 " 8 1 20 WEAPONS 1 45.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 15.0 I 40.0 I .. 1.5

I 2.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 I 3.3 1 1.1 I - .

1 0.7 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.2 1 0.6 /

I 1 1 1 1 1

CuLUMN 457 10 28 90 727 1312

TOTAL 34.S 0.8 2.1 6.9 55.4 100.0 (CoNTINUED)

41 6-

66.7 I 0.5 0.6 I

0.3 I

19 73.1 2.6

26 I 2.0

I I I I I I 457 10 28 90 727 1312

2.1 6.9 55.4 100.0 COLUMN TOTAL

(CONTINUED) 34.8 • 0.8

-- Trrs -vue i7-oF SPS-S IS 10 HL USED FOR ACADtMIC PUR OnLY ------ 0 /31177- .--e-PAGF 3- -- 7, CORELATIOP r PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

FILE NOr,AMF (CREATION DATE = 08/31/77)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CROSS TABUL A TION OF ***************11 SERCO\ MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE HY SUCPAR # OF SUCESSFUL PAROLES

* * * * * * * * * * 1 c * * * * * 7: * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * e PAGE 3 0

SERCON

SUCPAR COUNT I

)41--Ir le n POW Pcr INoNe• FE MOST COL PCT I TOT PCT I 11 21 31 4! 5 I 1 I 1 - 1

01 01 01 17 I 0 1

ROW TOTAL

I.

1 Cirri T. 10 J

1 0.0 I I 0.0 I

18 I 4 I OTHER I 40.0 I

I 0.9 I I 0.3 I

1 0.0 I 0.1 I

0.0 I 0.1 I 1

Cr 1 ---0 - 0 I - 6 - ! 10

0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 60.0 1 0.8

0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.8 I

0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.5 I

0.0 I 0.0

0.0 I 0.0

-1 1 19 I 15 I

HOMOCIDE I 34.1 I 3.3

I 1.1 1

2C I 1 I KIDDNAPPING I 25.0 I

1 0.2

I 0.1 I

22 I 1 I CONTEMPT . I 100.0 I

I 0.2 I

0.1 I

0 1 0 I 3 I 26 1 44

0.0 1 0.0 1 6.8 I 59.1 I 3.4

0.0 I 0.0 I 3.3 I 3.6 I --Q0 • •• - 0.0 - I - I 2.0 I 1

0 I 0 I 1 1 2 I 4

0.0 I 0.0 I 25.0 1 50.0 I 0.3

0. 0 i 0.0 i 1.1 0..5 1

0.0 1 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.2 1 1 1

01 01 01 0 I • 0.0 I' -0.0 I 0.0

0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 I

1 • 0.1

0.0 0.0

li 0.0 0.0 0.0 I

DI

24 1 e 1 MISCHIEF I 33.3 1

I 0.4 I I 0.2 I I

25 I 5 I ARSON I 19.2 I

I 1.1 I

U I 0.0 I I 0.0 I

0.0 - • - I

0 0.0 I 0.0

0 0.0 0.0 I 0.0

2 7.7 2.2

PEFJUPY

FXToRTION

THIS VEllb0-N o r-ST s 5-1 S-1 o RE USED FOR ACADEMLC PUSSES oriCY

CORELATTu OF PREDICTIVF FACTORS - N.P.S. n8/31777-11, PA GE - -7-3

FILE MCNAME (CREATION DATE = 0/31/77) I

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CROSST ABULAT ION OF lc * * * * * * * * * * * r:.• * À * SERCOm. MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY SUCPAR a OF SUCESSFUL PAROLES

* *************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * pAci E 4 0

SFRCON

SUCPAR

COUNT I ROt,, PCT I No/VE FEW . . ...ftoSi- , ... M1..> _. . N / Ps ROW

COL PCT I TOTAL

TOT PCT I 1 I 2 I 31 41 5 I I I I I I 1

2t4 1 11 0 1 . 01 01 51 6 --UE-CLIGE1,!CE

COriSPIRICY

I -I-6.f 1 U.0 I U.0 I U.0 I M3- 5 I • I 0.2 I 0 .0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.7

0.1 I 0 .0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.4 I

2 7 I G I O • 1- " 1 I 0 I 1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.0 I 0.1

0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 1.1 I 0.0 I I Ù .0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 1 I I I i I

2ie, I 01 DI 0 I 0 I 1 I 1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I . 0.0 I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.1 1 1 0.0 I 0:0 - I - -- 0:0 -1 - .- 0.0 • I 0;1 - I I I I I 1 I

291 31 DI 0 I . 01 DI 3 1 100.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.2

. i G./ I u.0 i u.0 i u.0 I U.0 1

I 0.2 I. 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

I 1 I I I I COLUMN 457 10 28 90 727 1312 TOTAL ' 34.8 -'0.a - ---2.t- ---- 6.9 55;4 100.0

NuMEFR OF MISSING OBSERVATIONS = 546

- T-FrrsœViiON OF SPSS IS TO nE UbED FOR ACADEMIC PU SES ONLY F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

:ILE NONAME (CREATION DATE = 08f31/77) .

* * *g* * * * * * * * * * * * * CROSS TABULATION OF * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * S.ERCOr, MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY RELIG RELIGIOUS BACKGROUND

* * * * * * * * * * * A * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 10

RT- LIG

;ERCOM

COUNT I ROW PCT IHAPTIST CATHOLIC PROT. Or ANGLICAN NONE OTHER ROW

COL PCT I i

. . ....

TOTAL i 1

TOT PCT I 1 I 2 I 31 41 51 6 I i I I I I I I I ,

1 1 21 151 61 41 01 01 27 ; R-TPI I (.4 1 55.6 1 .ere.e I 14.b I U.0 I U.0 . I e.é

I 1.8 I 2.1 I 2.2 I 4.0 I 0.0 I 0.0* I

I 0.2 I 1.2 1 0.5 I 0.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

2 I 9 I 2 T 6 r - o7 1 1 1 51 I.A. ON FEMALE I 17.6 I 52.9 I 15.7 I 11.8 I 0.0 I. 2.0 I 4.2

I 8.3 I 3.8 1 2..9 I 6.1 I 0.0 I 7.7

I 0.7 1 2.2 1 0.7 I 0.5 I 0.0 I 0.1 I

-1 I 1. 1

31 01 81 21 01 - 0 1 01 10 I.A. ON MALE I 0.0 I 80.0 1 20.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 =-I 0.0 I 0.8

1 0.0 I 1.1 I 0.7 I 0.0 I ':.'0.0 1 0.0 I

r o.n I - 0:7--T---0-.2 --1 --- 0 -.0--I1-:,0.0 - I 0.0 I -- ____ _ . 1 1 I I 1 I

41 01 101 31 51 ' UT 01 18 SEXUAL - 0TH.7 I 0.0 I 55.6 I 16.7 I 27.8 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 1.5

I U.0 1 1.4 I 1.1 I 1 I , 0.u. 1 0.0 1

1 0.1) I 0.8 I 0.2 I 0.4 / ' 0.0 I 0.0 I .

I 1 I I I, • 1 I. 5 1 0 I 49 I 15 I 5 I - 0' I 0 I 69

ASSAULTS I 0.0 1 71.0--1-21.7-1 ---- 7:2-I- • --.0.0 I 0.0 I 5.6

1 0.0 I 6.9 I 5.4 I 5.1 I OçO I 0.0 I

1 0.0 I 4.0 I 1.2 I 0.4 1 0.0 I 0..0 I

1 T 1 I I r.. I 1 fp I 14 I 1U9 I 4U I el 1 4 1 U I Id(

ROBBERY 1 7.5 1 58.3 I 21.4 1 10.7 I 2.1 I 0.0 I 15.3 I 12.8 I 15.3 I 14.5 I 20.2 I 28.6 I 0.0 1 I 1.1 1 8.9 1 3..3 I 1.6 I 0.3 I 0.0 I I r- r ---- -- I. - . 1 I I

7 I 34 I 2 8 2 1 110 I 30 I 5 I 3 1 464 L P. ND E I 7.3 I 60.b I 23.7 I 6.5 I 1.1 I 0.6 I 37.9

I 31.2 1 39.5 I 39.9 I 30.3 I 35.7 I 23.1 I J. 2 .6 I 23.-0 I 470 1 2.4 1 U.4 1 U.2 I I I I I I I I

COLUMN 1n r) 714 276 99 14 13 1225

TOTAL 8.9 58.3 22.5 8.1 1.1 1.1 100.0 CONTINUFD)

. ..... ____ ....._. _ _ ...._ ...........

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WEAP ON S

----0"8/31/77- -4, --- TPTS-Villr OF SP-S'S IS- 10 hft UbED FOK ALADEMIL PUerS ONLY C o JRELATI IF PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

FILE No1ANE (CREATION DATE = (1 8/31/77)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CR OSS T ABULA T ION 0 F * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * • SERCOW MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY RELIG RELIGIOuS BACKGROUND

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *•* * * * * * * * * PAGE 3

RELIG COUNT I

ROW PCT IbAPTIST CATHOLIC PROT. 4T ANGLICAN NONE OTHER ROW COL PCT I. TOTAL

TOT PCT I 1 I 21 31 41 51 61 SERCON I I I I I I I

171 01 1 I 0 1 01 01 01 1 LUNI. 10 J.D. 1 0.0 1 lou.o 1 , u.0 1 u.0 1 0.0 1 u.a- 1 u.1

1 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0« I

I 0.0 1 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

-I I I I I I I 18 I 0 I - 9' ' I - • « - a •", I ---- - -- 0 - - I' - 0 I 0 I 9

OTHER I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.7

I 0.0 I 1.3 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

1 0.0 I 0.7 I . 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

1 1 1 i 1 -1r 1

19 1 61 161 151 51 0 I . 01 42 HOMOCIDE I 14.3 I 38.1 I 35.7 I 11.9 I 0.0 I - 0.0 I 3.4

I 5.5 I 2.2 I 5.4 I 5.1 I 0.0. / 0.0 I

I 0.5 1 1.3 I - 1,2 -- I - - 0.4 I - 0.0 I 0.0 I

I I I I I I . I 20 I 0 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I - . 0 I 4

KIDDNAPPING I 0.0 I 25.0 1 25.0 I 25.0 I 25.0 I 0.0 I 0.3

1 0.0 1 0.1 1 0.4 1 1.0 1 7.1 1 070--1

1 0.0 1 0.1 1 0.1 I 0.1 I 0.1 I 0.0 I

I I I I I I I 22 I 01 01 01 1 I 01 • 01 1

CONTEMPT I 0.0 I 0.0 «I - - Cr."0 --I -t00-.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.1

I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 1.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

I • 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

I I . r I 1 1 I e 4 J. 1 1 4 I. 0 1 U 1 U 1 0-----I

I 20 .0 I 80.0 I OA I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.4

I 0.9 I 0.6 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I

I 0.1 1 0.3 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1

I I I ' - 1 I I I

251 31 191 1 I 1 I 0 - I 11 25

I 1 .2.0 I 76.0 I 4.0 I 4.0 I 0.0 I 4.0 I 2.0

I 2.8 I 2.7 I 0.4 I 1.0 I 0.0 I 7,7 I

-----1--(172--1-1 .b 1 0.1 1 0.1 1 0.0 1 0.1 1

MISCHIEF

ARSON

1

COLUMN 109 714 276 99 14 13 1225

TOTAL 8.9 58.3 22.5 8.1 1.1 1.1 100.0 (CONTINUED)

IS TO PE USED FOR ACADEMIC PURPO CORELATIO F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

08[31/7( --

II›

vEtio7F-O-F-S-P-Ss SES ONLY CORELATIOIMMF PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.

FILE NONAME (CREATION DATE = 0i,/31/77)

****************** cRoSsTABuLATION OF k***************; SERCON MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY RELIG RELIGIOUS BACKGROUND * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 401

RFLIG couNT I

ROW PCT IDAPTIST CATHOLIC PROT. oT ANGLICAN NONE oTHER Row

coueCT 1 TOTAL

ToT ecT 1 1 1 21 31 41 51 61 SERCON I 1 I I I I I

261 01 2 1 41 01 01 0I 6 NEGLIGENCE I 0.0 I 5. 5 I ert).( 1 U.0 I U.0 1 U.0 I U.5

1 0.0 I 0.3 I ' 1.4 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0.. I I 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.3 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 r 1 1 I 1 1 1

271 01 -" 1* - T"----- 0- I--0 - I - ' 01 01 1 coNsPiRicy 1 0.0 1 100.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.1

1 . 0.0 I 0.1 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 1 . 0.0 1 0.1 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1

-1 1 1 1 1 ---7-1 1 28 I 11 01 01 01 01 01 .1

pERJuRy 1 100.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I. 0.1 1 0.9 1 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 - 0.0 1 0.0 1 1 0.1 1 - -- (Y.:CY-1-0;0 - - r - - 0;0 - '1. 0.0 1 0.0 1

. 1 1 1 1 1. 1 1 .

291 01 31 01 01 01. 01 3

EXTORTICN I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.2 1 u.0 1 0.4 1 u.0 1 u.0 1 u.0 1 070 1 I 0.0 1 0.2 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 I 1 1 1 1 . 1 1

coLumN 109 714 276 99 14 13 1225 TOTAL 8.9 - - 98:3"- --22.5• -----8- :1 - "- - ',1 0 1.1 100.0

NUMPER OF MISSING OBSERVATIONS = 633

'

• - 3 8 -

APPENDIX

Burgess, E.W., 1928. "Factors Determining Success or Failure on Parole" in The Workings of the Indeterminate - Sentence Law and the Parole System in Illinois, by Bruce, Harno, Burgess, and Landesco, Illinois State Board of Parole, Springfield, Ill. Factors (for 3,000 men) making for parole success or failure (high failure for fraud, low for murder or manslaughter and for those with good work record.)

Warner, S.B., 1923. "Factors Determining Parole from the Massachusetts Reformatory" 14 Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, pp. 172-207. Comparison of factors considered important by Board of Parole with factors which differentiated between violators and non-violators.

Glueck, S. and E.T. Glueck, 1930. 500 Criminal Careers, Knopf., New York. 500 Criminal Careers, Five year follow up; 73% interviewed. Factors weighted (most important was work habits), prognostic tables constructed.

1937, Later Criminal Careers. The Commonwealth Fund. Yew York. Later Criminal Careers success factors similar to above, but mental condition enters importantly - nbenign process of maturation" is most important.

1943, Criminal Careers in Retrospect. The Commonwealth Fund, New York. Criminal Careers in Retrospect (now 15 years beyond sentence expiry).

1959, Predicting Deliquency and Crime, Harvard Press, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 153-187.

Glueck, S. and E.T. Glueck, 1934. One Thousand Juvenile Delinquents, Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge, Mass.

1940. Juvenile Delinquents Grown Up. The Commonwealth Fund.

1934. Five Hundred Delinquent Women. Knopf. New York.

1945. After-Conduct of Discharged Offenders, Macmillan Co. London.

1950. Unraveling juvenile Delinquengy, The Commonwealth Fund, New York.

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Vold, G.B. 1931 "Prediction Methods and Parole; The Sociological Press, Hanover, N.H. Minneapolis, I1Vepool. Prediction Methods and Parole Mean Squares. 1Previaia:s<work record is highest of 44 factors; factorewëig,hel,ected

4/

25 highest factors gave greatest differeptieio ‘,,,

Tibbitts, C. 1931, "Success and Failu»e in Pa•e can be . pi.edicted." 22 Journal of Criminal Law aneÇriminoloy„t) ,May, i931. -y I 1932 "The Reliability of Factors .">tiedetfeiffif,eredictiAng

Success . or Failure on Parole, 22 Journcrimïnal ---,-.M.tr.--.4---- Law and Criminolom, March, 1932.

U. S. Dept. of Justice, 1939, "Attorney-General's Survey of Release Procedures, Vol. IV: Parole" Washington, D.C. "Survey of Release Procedures". Analysis of factors associated with parole selection and outcome. (no prediction tables).

Ohlin, L.E. 1951, Selection For Parole, Russell Sage Foundation, New York.

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