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11 September 2011!

Georgetown University!Asian Arms Control Project!

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Implications of American Entropy:"

China’s Strategic Rocket Force "“Underground Great Wall”!

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1  Zhang Shan, “大地震销毁中国军队最大兵库 [News Media breaks story: A Large Underground Nuclear Explosion caused by the Earthquake in Beichuan ],” 大纪元 , (2009.05.07), at < http://tw.epochtimes.com/9/5/7/111780.htm > [accessed 31 Jan. 2011].

2  2008年5月18日，中國新民黨代主席郭泉發表了「中國新民黨敦促中共政府盡快發布四川核設施的安全報告」。他在該報告中列舉了四川境內的一系列核動力工程實驗研究設施及地震後這些單位的人員傷亡情況，並要求中共立即對四川全境及周邊地區所有核設施進行輻射檢測及盡快發布四川核設施的安全報告。但在該報告發表後的第三天，郭泉被拘捕。警方稱，郭泉沒有罪名，但必須拘留10天，10天後再做處理。Ibid.

3  2008年7月4日, 據中共軍方高層知情人士祕密透露，在汶川地震中中國軍隊最大的武器庫被完全銷毀，給中共軍隊帶來災難性的重創。消息稱，地震引發山區武器彈藥庫連鎖爆炸，中共幾十年經營的最大的兵器補給庫被完全銷毀，還包括新武器試驗基地及部分核設施、核彈頭都遭到摧毀。此事件作為最高軍事祕密，震動中南海。 Ibid.

4  2009年3月16日署名內幕人士本著良心、道德向博訊網「驚天大爆料」：「北川下方是原來的核彈貯藏地 ... 造成地下核洩露，現已經嚴重威脅到川渝地下水和億萬人民的安全。」 Ibid.

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“Underground Great Wall,” Hubie website [PRC], (2009.08.30) at < http://www.showcaves.com/english/cn/misc/GreatWall.html > [accessed 30 May 2010].

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“War Tunnels Fortification in the Shunyi County of Beijing,” at “China In Peaceful Times Honors Chinese Fighters At War Tunnels.” blog, (no date) at < http://chinadan.com/index.html > [accessed 7 Mar. 2010].

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1  “The Underground City,” Beijing: A Guide to China’s Capital City, (2009?) at < http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/beijing/30836.htm > [accessed 15 Jan. 2010]. 2  “Beijing Underground City,” Lonely Planet Review, (20 April 2010) at < http://www.lonelyplanet.com/china/beijing/sights/368621 > [accessed 5 May 2010]: Stephan Curran,

(posted: 11 June 2009) “Current Access to Underground City -- Y!0*.#+!0%!)<<#$$!01#!'&+#*/*%-&+!2.0J!%&!r-&#!S7!A77T!)&+!<%-(+!E&+!&%!4)J!.&Å@!O1#!<.0J!.$!$I((!01#*#?!1.+.&/Å@N! Andy Degraeve, (posted: 20 April 2010) “Y!1);#!K##&!0%!01#!-&+#*/*%-&+!<.0J!#&0*)&<#!)0![A!3#$0!e)5%<1)&/!:0*##0!.&!y.)&5#&@!O1)0!#&0*)&<#!.$!)+;#*I$#+!0%!K#!<(%$#+!>#*5)&#&0(J@N!

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“816�ĮPŘďĒ [816 Project Photo Tour],” topic: 航天二炮及新概念武器 [Second Artillery Corps and the New Concept of Space Weapons] at ŧĺwßŐşj [Higher Headquarters Forum], (2010.04.26) at < http://bbs.cjdby.net/thread-917792-1-3.html > [accessed 20 May. 2010, translated IP-1011].

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“816�ĮPŘďĒ,” op cit.

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2 “Shanghai Constructs Underground Bunker Capable Of Sheltering 200,000 People,” Associated Press, (2006.07.31) at < http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1675268/posts > [accessed 15 April 2010].

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3 “ 20 ( ),” Shanghai Morning Post, (2006.08.08) at < http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-07/29/content_4890885.htm > [accessed 30 April 2010, translated by IP-2010.

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“ [The World's Largest Blasting],” Zhenghun Network, (2009.04.24) at < http://www.lnlt.cn/viewthread.php?tid=26484 > [accessed 7 March 2008, translated by IP-1011.

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J��N!["#?F\1'+$%'C#H1'@ited with “underground hanger” at “��—— ��“51” [New airport — Asia's largest military airport, China's "area 51”],” op cit; map from: “Zhangye Southeast Air Base,” Our Airports, (2010) at < http://www.ourairports.com/airports/CN-0143/ > [accessed 15 June 2010].

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“一口井 [A Silo],” topic: 航天二炮及新概念武器 [Second Artillery Corps and the New Concept of Space Weapons] at ŧĺwßŐşj [Higher Headquarters Forum], (2010.04.14) at < http://bbs.cjdby.net/thread-907903-1-5.html > [accessed 20 May. 2010, translated IP-1011]; and “eP6R��5źďĒ![DF5 silos within the photo],” China Picture, (2010.04.29), at < http://www.picturechina.com.cn/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=55644&extra=page%3D1 > [accessed 20 Sept. 2011, translated IP-1011].

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[Report by Peng Wei, Jiang Wu, Chen Shuangwei, and Li Jing]: “New Initiatives in Passing on Experience: 'Snowballing' Talent Cultivation -- Documentary Report of Certain Base of Secondary Artillery Promoting Contract-type' Mentoring,” Jiefangjun Huabao, [Beijing, in Mandarin], (2009.02.09) at [translated by OSC CPP20090428682002: “Second Artillery Base Promotes Personnel Mentoring To Foster Talent;” accessed 1 June 2010].

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“China Builds Underground 'Great Wall' Against Nuke Attack,” Chosun Ilbo, [Seoul, ROK Daily], (14 December 2009), translated by OSC KPP20091214971047.

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“Second Artillery Corps Logistics Department Improves Fast-Track Comprehensive Support Capability,” CCTV-7 [Beijing, WMV: 1 min 15 sec in Mandarin], (2009.11.27) at [OSC CPM20100129017042: “PLA Second Artillery Unit Conducts Comprehensive Logistics Support Exercise;” accessed 1 June 2010].

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Map from: Mark A. Stokes and Ian Easton, Evolving Aerospace Trends in the Asia-Pacific Region, (monograph; Washington, DC: The Project 2049 Institute, 27 May 2010), pp. 8, 39. Tunnel stages estimated on the basis of PRC reference and reporting.

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Study #7!

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R. Norris, A. Burrows, and R. Fieldhouse, British, French, and Chinese Nuclear Weapons, (NRDC: 1994): p. 359; and Jeffrey Lewis, The Minimal Means of Reprisal: China’s Search for Security in the Nuclear Age, (AAA&S: 2007): p. 54.

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SAC Development!

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•  Hold opponents values hostage;!•  Target 300 American cities;!•  Believable capacity to kill 200,000,000 Americans;!•  Reduce Vulnerability -- they can’t target what they can’t see --

hide and move;!•  Reduce cost of “high ready” systems with mobilization;!•  Discussion of 2nd and 3rd Strategic Strikes, with implied:!

–  Stored reserve;!–  Reloads;!–  Multiple launch positions.!

•  Demonstrate enhanced capability during a crisis.!

What would it take?"

Distribution of US Population!LG%>-()I%&!e#&$.0J!A777l!G#%>(#!>#*!$`-)*#!5.(#!KJ!2%-&0J?N!jH#+.$0*.<I&/!e)0)?!G"!TRFS\SC!3)$1.&/0%&?!e2l!':!2#&$-$!Z-*#)-?!A777k@!

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PRC Counter-Value Strike Against US Cities: 2000!

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Counter-Value Strike Against US Cities with MIRV!

Distribution of US Electrical Grid!

Collateral Destruction of US Electrical Grid with City Attack

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Value Distribution of US Agriculture!

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Residual Radiation Coverage of US Agriculture!

POL Pumping Stations and Pipelines!

Major Breaks in Distribution!

a)I%&)(!d./14)J!:J$0#5!National Highway System!

a)I%&)(!d./14)J!:J$0#5!Major Breaks in Highway System!

a)I%&)(!H).(!a#0!National Rail Net!

a)I%&)(!H).(!a#0!National Rail Net Traffic!

Major Breaks in Railway System!

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–  21.&)!.$!+#;#(%>.&/!.0$!%4&!&)I%&)(!5.$$.(#!+#9#&$#!

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中国人!óŚÌ6Ĵ�Č4!vO1#!:<.#&<#!%9!:#<%&+!X*I((#*J!2)5>)./&$w?!#+.0#+!KJ!}-!r.B-&!v�ƆŜw?!jZ#.�.&/?!GH2l!G"X!G*#$$?!A77Rkl!>@!S]A@!!

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Chinese Deterrence Terminology!

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PRC View of Deterrence is neither Minimal nor Passive"!Warfighting and deterrence are two major basic functions of the armed forces. What is termed deterrence is the military conduct of a state or a political group in displaying force or showing determination to use force to compel the enemy to submit to one’s volition and to refrain from taking hostile actions or escalating the hostility.!!Strategic deterrence and strategic operations are dialectically unified. Strategic operations secure the strategic objective through direct engagement with the enemy on the battlefield, with a view to winning the war or to curbing the war by war, which the objective of strategic deterrence is to contain the outbreak of war or to limit the scope and the escalation of war, with a view to curbing the war, and its strategic objective is attained by non-fighting means or fighting a small war. Strategic deterrence and strategic operations are interacted, and their objectives are for attaining one’s strategic objectives by frustrating the enemy’s attempts. Peng Guangquian and Yao Youzhi, Science of Strategy, (Beijing: 2005): pp. 213-214.

!With regard to the Second Artillery conventional missile strike campaign, it will be carried out under nuclear deterrence conditions. Despite the fact that future wars primarily will be conventional local wars, in the global [community,] those that have nuclear weapons are primarily nations with strong militaries, and have not promised no first use of nuclear weapons; moreover local wars that erupt in the near future will implement nuclear deterrence many times. !!The Second Artillery must successfully handle preparations for nuclear strike and nuclear deterrence, and must be rooted in nuclear conditions or operations under nuclear deterrence conditions. Missile deterrence operations are the operational activities to contain enemy strategic intentions or major military risky operations through the specific use of forces and firepower from the Second Artillery conventional missile campaign large formation in order to demonstrate firm will and formidable actual strength against the enemy side’s implementation of containment.!!Missile deterrent operations are permeated with stratagem qualities and artistry. Their essence lies in the ingenious selection of targets, ingenious choice of timing opportunities, ingenious use of forces and firepower, and the ingenious application of operational methods. The campaign commander and the command organ must fully anticipate all the situations that might emerge during the campaign, while formulating multiple deterrence operational methods and advance plans. When implementing the missile deterrence operation, one should flexibly employ deterrence operational methods based on the strategic intentions of the higher-level authorities and the dynamic state of the enemy side and make every effort to achieve the goals of deterrence. Science of Campaigns, edited by É1)&/!}-(.)&/?!(Beijing: 2006): pp. 709-710, 727.

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