1 final sustoil conference düsseldorf, 7-9 june 2010 the sustoil model for europe: macroeconomic...
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Final SUSTOIL ConferenceFinal SUSTOIL ConferenceDüsseldorf, 7-9 June 2010Düsseldorf, 7-9 June 2010
The Sustoil model for Europe: The Sustoil model for Europe:
macroeconomic and policy viewsmacroeconomic and policy views
Dr Caterina De Lucia University of York
WP6 Modelling Stackeholders Interplay and Policy Scenarios for Biorefineries and Biodiesel Production
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Contents of the talk
Part I Aims and objectives of the WP6 Schematic view of the CGE (UoY) Interactions between WP5 and WP6-CGE modelling
Part II Production struction without and with biorefineries Database and software info Policies Main results Conclusions - highlights
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Part I: Aims and objectives of the WP6
Social network interactions
across stakeholders
Macroeconomic and policy analysis
Policy simulation analysis for bio-
refineries
Agent Based Model (ABM)
Computable General
Equilibrium (CGE) Model
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Part I: Schematic view of the CGE (UoY)
Theoretical model
Definition of behavioural relationships for: • production • consumption• trade• government• emissions
Applied model
• Calibration analysis (for the EU-27)
• Benchmark case: current state of technology and consumption (fossil fuel use, biofuels as energy factors to production, current land use, current emission levels)• Policy options (Bio-based economy, EU targets of biofuels share in total energy)• Model’s validation (sensitivity analysis)
Macroeconomic CGE model for bio-refineries
(deals with the inter-relationships between different markets and sectors of the economy)
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Interactions between WP5 and WP6-CGE modelling
Input factors
Gov’t
Households
Bio-Refiner
ies
PollutionCO2
HOME
ABROAD
Trade
Other firms
WP5
Optimal Biodiesel
Optimal Biogas for bio-electricity
WP6-CGE modelling a biorefinery economy
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Database used
Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) v6.1. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/
Macroeconomic information given in Social Accounting
Matrix (SAM) form. This provides a conceptual and
behavioural framework to link the components of an economy
to each other.
A SAM is a square matrix where each account is a row and a
colum entry (see next slide).
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To
From
Firm
Household
Government
Rest of the World
Net Investments
Total (Income)
Emissions
Firm Consump. Consump. Exports Investments
Total inc. firm
Emissions
Household
Wages
Consump. Exports Total inc. household
Government
Taxes
Taxes Total incomes government
Rest of the World
Imports
Imports Total inc. Row
Net Investment
Savings Savings Total savings
Total (expenditure)
Total exp. firms
Total exp. household
Total exp. government
Total exp. Row
Total exp. Investments
Total
Environmental extended SAM
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Database
The current database is the Global Trade Analysis Project v6.0
at the URL: www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/Description GTAP
6.0 (2001 base year)
SUSTOIL model
Commodities 57 12
Activities 57 12
Factors 5 5
Regions 87 5
Margin Commodities
3 3
Domestic Institutions
4 4
Added information from WP5 on Biodiesel and Electricity from Biogas using oil seeds
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Main added information
Input and output data (including prices) on biodiesel and electricity from biogas refinery – WP5
Country prices on labour data for biorefineries Country prices on feed-in tariffs for electricity Country tax exemptions on biodiesel (in 2007) Sectoral CO2 equivalent emission factors
(taken from DEFRA and WP5) Elastities values for production with
biorefineries (taken from various recent sources)
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Policies considered in the model
Policy objective: 20 % reduction in CO2 using 20% renewables by 2020
Policy experiments: Change from a EU no-biobased economy to one
with:
A EU biorefinery economy Biofuels targets share in total energy by
5.75% by 2010 Biodiesel tax exemptions
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Main policy results
SectorsGDP % change
North EU
South EU
West EU
EU 10 All EU
oth_agr -12.75 -4.76 -2.87 -43.84 -13.36osd 203.90 -22.53 223.10 6278.00 689.69
en_int_ind -11.47 -13.48 -4.68 -41.65 -11.53
oth_ind -7.53 -6.88 1.73 -37.82 -4.88gas 5.73 -30.35 -11.00 28.95 -9.09coa -8.81 7.95 -5.21 -1.87 -3.58oil -21.83 -23.78 -13.42 -61.28 -22.32
oil_pcts -21.21 -23.94 -12.41 -63.99 -19.46transp -12.16 -13.74 -2.10 -51.25 -11.44
ely 6.28 12.18 10.24 42.28 12.96
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Main policy results
NorthEu
SouthEu
WestEU EU10
CO2 equivalent emissions (% change)
-12.63 -14.82 -8.81 2.70
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Main policy results
NorthEu
SouthEu
WestEU EU10
Land used by osd (% of osd)
181.33 -20.15 187.6 3992
Land used by osd (% of total land)
13.00 -1.96 14.38 96.31
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Main policy results
NorthEu
SouthEu
WestEU EU10
Electricity price (% change )
-2.25 -3.13 0.038 -8.46
Oil price (% change)
-15.48 -14.56 -14.41 -24.26
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Concluding remarks - highlights
Biorefineries working from Oil Seeds and their by-products will lead to a large increase in the amount of this crop grown – particularly in Eastern Europe
This will be accompanied by decreases in sectoral GDP in several other areas
There will be a decrease in CO2 emissions, but insufficient to meet the EU’s target of 20 %. Other environmental measures could be used to fill this gap
Oil and electricity prices will generally fall in across the EU, with a particularly notable trend in Eastern Europe