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AfricaAfrica(Regional Association I)(Regional Association I)Disaster Prevention And Disaster Prevention And

Mitigation Programme SurveyMitigation Programme Survey

Mr William Nyakwada Mr William Nyakwada

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AgendaAgenda• Impacts of hazards

• Preliminary results of the WMO country-level DPM survey

• Preliminary results of the WMO regional-level DPM survey

• Opportunities and recent initiatives for implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), and key partners

• Regional activities and capacities available through WMO network (RSMCs and RTCs)

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Impacts of hazards in AfricaImpacts of hazards in Africa

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Number of Disasters (1980-2005) Number of Disasters (1980-2005)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

96% of disasters are related to hydro-meteorological factors.

Volcano0.6%

Tsunami0.3%

Epidemic, famine, insects39%

Wild Fires 1.1%

Windstorm 9%

Earthquake3%

Drought18%

Extreme Temperature

0.7%Flood 27%

Slides 1.3%

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DISEASES:Malaria,Cholera, Typhoid,Rift valley Fever etc

FLOODS

LAND SLIDES AND EARTHQUAKES

DROUGHT AND FAMINE

1999-2000 DROUGHT

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Loss of Human Life (1980-2005) Loss of Human Life (1980-2005)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

98% of loss of life are related to hydro-meteorological factors. Hydro- Meteorological Information is Rarely Integrated in Decision-making

Volcano0.28%

Tsunami0.04%

Epidemic, famine, insects17%

Windstorm 0.5%

Earthquake1.0%

Drought80%

Flood 2%

KEY DEVELOPMENT PATHS:•Rely on Agriculture and water resources.•Human resources

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Economic Losses (1980-2005) Economic Losses (1980-2005)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

45% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological factors

Tsunami0.15%

Epidemic, famine, insects0.49%

Wild Fires 0.05%Windstorm

15%

Earthquake54%

Drought15%

Extreme Temperature0.2%

Flood 16%

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Growth rates in sectors and total GDP for the period 1972-1981(Adopted from Kenya development plan 1984-1988)

COMMENTSThe declines in 1973-76 and 1978-80were partly attributed to the Droughts in 1974and 1979 affecting agriculture.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1972

-73

1973

-74

1974

-75

1975

-76

1976

-77

1977

-78

1978

-79

1979

-80

1980

-81

agriculture industry totalgdp

GDP=Agriculture+Industry+Government services

EXAMPLE OF ECONOMIC LOSS RELATED TO HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL PROCESSES-KENYA

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Preliminary results of the WMO Preliminary results of the WMO country-level DPM surveycountry-level DPM survey

in RA I (Africa)in RA I (Africa)

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Responses to the WMO Country-Level Responses to the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey in AfricaDPM Survey in Africa

28 out of 52 Members responded

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Ranking of the hazards Ranking of the hazards from the country-level surveyfrom the country-level survey

HIGHIMPACTS

LOWIMPACTS

HazardCountries affected (out

of 28)Global

(out of 139)Drought 24 101Strong winds 23 119Thunderstorm or lightning 23 103Flash flood 21 105Forest or wild land fire 21 81River flooding 20 101Desert locust swarm 14 27Hazards to aviation 14 67Smoke, Dust or Haze 14 50Dense fog 13 62Earthquakes 13 75Heat wave 12 72Hailstorm 11 69Coastal flooding 10 56Landslide or mudslide 10 70Sandstorm 9 27Tropical cyclone 8 56Waterborne hazards 8 47Marine hazards 7 43Cold wave 6 52Tornado 4 45Tsunami 4 35Volcanic events 4 29Airborne substances 3 35Heavy snow 3 53Storm surge 3 48Freezing rain 2 36Avalanche 36

(Drought, strong winds, thunderstorms, flash floods, river flooding and locusts)

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Number of countries keeping data archivesNumber of countries keeping data archives

• Very few countries maintain impact databases

• Need for strengthening National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' capacities for hazard data recording & archiving.

Dro

ught

Stro

ng w

inds

Thun

ders

torm

or l

ight

ning

Flas

h flo

od

Fore

st o

r wild

land

fire

Riv

er fl

oodi

ng

Des

ert l

ocus

t sw

arm

Haz

ards

to a

viat

ion

Smok

e, D

ust o

r Haz

e

Den

se fo

g

Eart

hqua

kes

Hea

t wav

e

Hai

lsto

rm

Coa

stal

floo

ding

Land

slid

e or

mud

slid

e

Sand

stor

m

Trop

ical

cyc

lone

Wat

erbo

rne

haza

rds

Mar

ine

haza

rds

Col

d w

ave

Torn

ado

Tsun

ami

Volc

anic

eve

nts

Airb

orne

sub

stan

ces

Hea

vy s

now

Stor

m s

urge

Free

zing

rain

Ava

lanc

he

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Data Archived Impacts data (loss of life + economic losses)

HIGHIMPACT

LOWIMPACT

A lot of information on drought, strong winds, thunderstorms and heat waves. Very little on impacts

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Number of countries issuing warningsNumber of countries issuing warningsHIGH

IMPACTLOWIMPACT

Warnings could be significantly enhanced through strengthening of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' capacities

Dro

ught

Stro

ng w

inds

Thun

ders

torm

or l

ight

ning

Flas

h flo

od

Fore

st o

r wild

land

fire

Riv

er fl

oodi

ng

Des

ert l

ocus

t sw

arm

Haz

ards

to a

viat

ion

Smok

e, D

ust o

r Haz

e

Den

se fo

g

Eart

hqua

kes

Hea

t wav

e

Hai

lsto

rm

Coa

stal

floo

ding

Land

slid

e or

mud

slid

e

Sand

stor

m

Trop

ical

cyc

lone

Wat

erbo

rne

haza

rds

Mar

ine

haza

rds

Col

d w

ave

Torn

ado

Tsun

ami

Volc

anic

eve

nts

Airb

orne

sub

stan

ces

Hea

vy s

now

Stor

m s

urge

Free

zing

rain

Ava

lanc

he

0

5

10

15

20

25

30NMS NHS Combined Service Other

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Contributions of NMHSs to key sectors Contributions of NMHSs to key sectors relevant to Disaster Risk Managementrelevant to Disaster Risk Management

The contributions could be significantly enhanced through strengthening of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' capacities

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Transp

ortatio

n

Food se

curit

yHea

lth

Safety

of Life

at Sea

Sanita

tion

Fresh wate

r

Land-use

planning

Housin

g

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Most critical factors limiting contributions of NMHSs to disaster risk management

Africa - RA I(out of 28 responses)

GLOBAL(out of 139 responses)

Visibility and recognition of NMHSs within the Government as one of the main contributing agencies to disaster risk reduction 24/26 108/134

Understanding at the ministerial level of the socio-economic benefits of hydrometeorological products and services 26/26 124/132

National disaster risk reduction organizational structures 4/26 49/132

Lack of understanding by governmental authorities of the value that NMHSs provides 18/24 82/130

Legislation or policies regarding the role of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service in DRR 16/24 72/131

Observing networks for hydro-meteorological conditions 21/24 91/129

Resources for the maintenance of the observing networks 23/25 95/131

Value-added services in support of hydrometeorological risk assessment 24/25 114/127

Resources and infrastructure to deliver products and services 26/27 105/114

Operational forecasting and warning services 26/26 119/128

Readiness level system to ensure appropriate response by authorities to the levels of information issued by NMHSs 21/24 106/126

Collaboration and coordination with the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres 26/27 100/130

Linkages with other organizations involved in disaster risk reduction 23/27 68/133

Coordination with neighboring or adjacent countries 26/27 115/132

Forecaster training 19/25 74/131

Joint training between NMHS staff and disaster risk managers 26/26 91/132

Joint training between NMHS staff and media 26/27 90/135

Joint training between NMHS staff and emergency authorities and managers 25/26 89/133

Educational modules that NMHSs could target at Media, Public, disaster risk reduction authorities 27/27 117/134

Public understanding of the effects of hazards 25/26 111/133

Public understanding of warnings 25/26 109/133

Limiting factors of NMHSs in their Limiting factors of NMHSs in their contribution to disaster risk managementcontribution to disaster risk management

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Areas in which WMO's global and regional efforts could Areas in which WMO's global and regional efforts could enhance NMHSs' contribution to disaster risk managementenhance NMHSs' contribution to disaster risk management

Statement

RA I (Africa) 28 / 52

Global139 /187

Technology transfer, capacity building, technical guidelines and technical trainings (e.g. forecasting tools and methodologies, hazard mapping, and other inputs to risk assessment tools, etc.) 1 1

Provision of technical advice and specifications (e.g. to enhance observing networks, operational infrastructures, relevant products and services for disaster risk reduction applications) 2 2

Resource mobilization3 9

Assist members in the development of the national disaster risk reduction plans4 7

Advocacy for enhanced visibility of National Meteorological and Hydrological Service’ in the area of disaster risk reduction 5 4

Cost benefit analysis of hydro-meteorological services in disaster risk reduction6 5

Strengthening strategic partnerships with stakeholders (e.g. disaster risk managers, media, etc.)7 6

Education, training and public outreach programs in disaster risk reduction (e.g. targeted at National Meteorological and Hydrological Service and their stakeholders) 8 3

Strengthening strategic partnerships with other technical organizations and agencies (e.g. meteorology, hydrology, ocean services, etc.) 9 8

Establishment of regional emergency protocols for the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in support of each other in case of disruption of services due to the impact of a disaster 10 10

Capacity building and training, identification of suitable technologies and resource mobilization

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Preliminary results of Preliminary results of the WMO regional-level the WMO regional-level

DPM survey DPM survey in RA I (Africa)in RA I (Africa)

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Regional-level DPM survey is being implemented by RA Regional-level DPM survey is being implemented by RA Working Group on DPM to address issues related to:Working Group on DPM to address issues related to:

i) Providing information on initiatives through various economic groupings and agencies to develop regional strategic plans for implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)

ii) Strengthening regional capacity’s in disaster risk management

iii) Identification and prioritization of hazards that pose the greatest risk resulting in a need for cross boundary / sub-regional / regional collaboration and cooperation

iv) Understanding the current capacities and activities in the region in support of disaster risk management, and how these regional capacities and activities support these focus areas, including the projects underway through the working groups of the Regional Association

v) Identification of gaps and needs and cross-boundary challenges for enhancing capacities in support of disaster risk management

vi) Regional priorities with respect to addressing these gaps and needs

vii) Identification of existing and potential future partnerships and concrete project areas of the regional association with other agencies involved in disaster risk reduction.

viii) Prioritization of activities / projects in support of Members capacities in disaster risk management in your Regional Association.

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CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED • East African Community (EAC)• Economic Commission For West African States

(ECOWAS)• Intergovernmental Authority On Development (IGAD),• South African Development Community (SADC)• UN/ISDR-Africa• IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre(ICPAC)• WMO Regional Programme• Information available on the websites and obtained through

interactions in various relevant forums and consultancies.

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Contributions from AU and RECsContributions from AU and RECs• Discussions with the South African Development Community (SADC),

Intergovernmental Authority On Development (IGAD), and Economic Commission For West African States (ECOWAS) established that their DRR activities converge on reducing weather and climate related risks that affect agriculture and food security, water resource development and management, disaster prevention and mitigation, human and animal health, and transport and communication.

• Drought is the highest concern for all the sub-regions followed by floods, epidemics, environmental degradation (desertification and erosion), tropical cyclones and strong winds.

• The RECs appreciated the services provided by the Sub-Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres such as AGRHYMET, ICPAC, SADC-DMC and La Reunion(Tropical Cyclones).

• They also appreciated services provided by NMHSs.

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Opportunities and recent Opportunities and recent initiatives for implementation of initiatives for implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action the Hyogo Framework for Action

(HFA), and key partners(HFA), and key partners

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AFRICA UNITY/NEPADAFRICA UNITY/NEPAD

• African regional strategy for disaster risk reduction – Executive Council Eighth Ordinary Session, 16 – 21 January 2006,

Khartoum, SUDAN approved the Programme of Action (2006-– 2010) for the Implementation of the Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction(EX.CL/228 (VIII)).

– The key areas of the Action Plan for the Implementation of Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction are:

– Increased political commitment to disaster risk reduction, Improve identification and assessment of disaster risks, Increase public awareness of disaster risk reduction, Improve governance of disaster risk reduction institutions, integrate disaster risk reduction in emergency response management, Overall co-ordination and monitoring of the implementation of the Strategy,

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AU PROGRAMME OF ACTIONAU PROGRAMME OF ACTION ON DRR -ON DRR - Timeframe: 5 Timeframe: 5 YearsYears ( (Highlights)- Highlights)- Improve identification and assessment of Improve identification and assessment of disaster risksdisaster risks• ACT 1:To improve the quality of information and data on disaster risks.

– RES 1: Quality of information and data improved on DRR• ACT2: To improve identification, assessment and monitoring of hazards,

vulnerabilities and capacities.– RES 2: Risk identification and assessment improved

• ACT 3: To strengthen early warning systems, institutions, capacities and resource base, including observational and research sub-systems.– RES 3 :Capacity for hazard and vulnerability mapping and

monitoring improved• ACT:4 To improve communication and information exchange among

stakeholders in risk identification and assessment.– RES 4: Early warning systems at national and regional level

enhanced• ACT 5 To engender and improve integration and coordination of risk

identification and assessment processes and interventions.–  RES 5 :Information flow and assessment of disaster risks better

coordinated among stakeholders

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EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY(EAC)EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY(EAC)

• A five-year meteorological strategic plan and investment strategy– EAC developed and adopted a Five-year Meteorological

Strategic Plan and Investment Strategy aimed at improving the capacities of NMHSs to support DRR activities.

– The strategic plan and investment strategy included various projects aimed at improving services to the various sectors. Only programmes aimed at improving the generation and application of products are highlighted in this presentation.

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EAC CONT’DEAC CONT’D

• ST1: Support NMSs in the development of applications products tailored to specific user needs; and strengthen weather services for the public and the tourist industry;– PRO 1:Develop capacity and acquire facilities to develop products

tailored to specific user needs• ST2:Improve weather and climate services and products for the energy

generation, disaster management, water resources management and building and construction industry; – PRO 2:Improving weather and climate services and products for the

energy generation, disaster management, water resources management and building and construction industry;

• ST 3:Support development of improved weather and climate services and products for application specific to the health sector; – PROJECT 3: Developing improved weather and climate services and

products for application specific to the health sector• ST4: Strengthening remote sensing capabilities

– PRO 4: Procurement, installation and commissioning of satellite receiving equipment for polar orbiting and R&D satellites;

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ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR WEST AFRICAN STATES ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR WEST AFRICAN STATES (ECOWAS)(ECOWAS)

ECOWAS-Key hazards are drought and desertification(northern parts) and floods and coastal erosion (southern parts)

• Focus is on reducing the impacts of drought on Agriculture and food security, and water resources

• Water and environment policy was being developed to coordinate cross boarder water basins.

• The Agricultural Policy For The Economic Community Of West African States(ECOWAP), adopted by The Twenty –Eighth Session Of The Authority Of Heads Of States and Governments On 19 January 2005 in Accra, Ghana , aims at contributing to the reduction of the vulnerability of the west African economies to factors related to natural disasters.

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INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT (IGAD) (IGAD)

• IGAD has developed a strategy on disaster risk reduction and has accepted ICPAC as a specialized centre on climate prediction and application.

• Has a programme focusing on identifying drought tolerant activities to improve the livelihood of the people in arid and semi-arid lands(i.e 60-70% of the Region) and the effort is to produce crop varieties.

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IGAD CONT’DIGAD CONT’D• A community pilot project on water harvesting aimed at providing

water for agriculture and domestic consumption was being implemented under the funding of the African Development Bank .

• The major challenge for the the project implementation is inadequate hydro-meteorological data to establish the water harvesting potentials and water losses. Meteorological data is also needed for designing and locating windbreaks.

• The community would need training in meteorological observation to provide information to support sustainable operation of the project.

• Under a joint project for COMESA, IGAD, EAC and IOC ten million(10m) EUROs have been provided to address food security and risk management in the regions(most of the funds would be used on food relief and school feeding programme).

• The existing early warning systems are more on identifying the needs for food relief and less on creating preparedness.

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IGAD-cont’dIGAD-cont’d

• COMESA and IGAD joint project to improve information, communication and technology (ICT) in eastern and southern Africa would benefit members of IGAD, Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), East African Community(EAC) and COMESA.

• The project is intended to improve telecommunication ICT (a major challenge for moving meteorological data and products) by addressing policy and connectivity.

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SOUTH AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY (SADC)COMMUNITY (SADC)

• The region had implemented several projects supported by Food Agriculture Organization(FAO) to improve early warning systems focusing on systems in the agricultural sector.

• The major concerns included:– The inadequacy of the forecasts to filter into the high levels of

management at the secretariat.– Gaps between the NMHSs and users, which are attributed to the

perception of NMHSs that they are perfect in their profession and know what every user needs leading to provision of services without any consultation. NMHSs need to open up more and interact with other sectors.

– NMHSs need to build capacity and partnerships to facilitate the generation of products needed by various users.

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SADC CONT’DSADC CONT’D• The following were recommended as the needs for improving the

contribution of NMHSs to DRR:– To conduct climate risk assessment of the region so as to establish the

magnitude, intensity and duration of climate extremes affecting the region. – The records of the events be properly compiled and to assist in establishing

the return periods of droughts and floods affecting the region. – Enhance capacities of NMHSs to utilize the large records of climate

information they are holding. – The NMHSs promote partnerships with users and allow users with

capacity to access the data to generate products relevant to their specific needs.

– Users need to form partnership with NMHSs to enhance the utilization of the available meteorological data and information, and NMHSs should develop capacities to meet diverse needs of the users.

– The NMHSs need to develop human resource capacities in ICT to improve the utilization of MSG products.

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ACTIVITIES INVOLVING ACTIVITIES INVOLVING INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONSINTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

• WMO, GCOS, Members and development partners are involved in various programmes contributing to DRR. These include those aimed at improving human resource capacities, infrastructure and developing strategies and action plans to improve the services in the region.

• WMO, Members and Specialized advanced Centres are implementing a Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) aimed at demonstrating the potential contribution of advances in the science of meteorology to DRR. It involves meteorologists, disaster management and civil authorities. The lessons learned from this project would facilitate implementation of similar project in other parts of the region

• The implementation of the proposed strategy for RA-I World Weather Watch (WWW) intended to “Enhance the Contribution of WWW to the Reduction of the Risks Associated With Severe Weather and Climate Extremes Affecting Africa” will contribute to DRR in the region.

• The PUMA/MTAP provided facilities and training to enable NMHSs receive and use products from MSG. It involved users, RECs, donors (European Commission and EU Member States) and other international stakeholders (EUMETSAT, WMO…).

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ACTIVITIES INVOLVING ACTIVITIES INVOLVING INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONSINTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

• African Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development (AMESD)-The objective of the AMESD programme is to help the African countries to improve the management of their natural resources and assist them in better defining their needs and identifying the potential beneficiaries.

• World Bank, Africa Development Bank, SIDA, EC/EU, ISDR, UN OCHA , Department for International Development Cooperation (FINNIDA), The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), United nation development Programme (UNDP), UNEP, UN/ISDR, EUMETSAT among other institutions have beed involved or funded projects that contribute to DRR in the region.

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ACTIVITIES INVOLVING ACTIVITIES INVOLVING INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONSINTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

• The DRR activities that the international communities have been involved in include:– Improving the generation and application of climate

products;– Adapting to climate variability and change;– Identification and mapping of hazards;– Developing disaster management policies;– Integrating weather and climate in DRR Policy;– Agriculture and food security;– Water resource development and management;– Disaster response; – Use of indigenous knowledge in DRR; and– Capacity building and the development of Infrastructure.

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Regional activities and capacities available through Regional activities and capacities available through WMO network (RSMCs and RTCs)WMO network (RSMCs and RTCs)• ACMAD, ICPAC, SADC-DMC and La Reunion continued to

contribute to provide warnings and capacity building in their areas of specializations.

• The climate outlook forums and preseason capacity building workshops have helped improve the skills of the seasonal climate outlooks and linkages between NMHSs and users.

• The RTCs have continued to build capacities in operational meteorology and related applied sciences. The support of WMO and Members has been very instrumental in developing capacities in capacities in the developing and least developed countries including those emerging from wars.

• These institutions have demonstrated that with support they can significantly contribute to DRR and enhance partnerships among NMHSs and users to facilitate the generation of tailored products to reduce risks and spur development.

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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONSCONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS• The results of this survey continue to indicate that most of the

disasters affecting the region are related to hydro-meteorological processes.

• Droughts continue to have the highest tall on the losses of lives in the region.

• The advances in science indicate that seasonal rainfall can be predicted with useful skill.

• The survey indicates that AU and RECs DRR strategies recognize the need to address the reduction of climate related risks.

• Despite the fact that a lot of funding flows to the continent, the components in the strategy aimed at DRR through the improvement of hydro-meteorological information rarely attract funding.

• The future of the continent depends on the capacity of the vulnerable rural community to cope with climate.

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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONSCONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

• It is recommended that:– The components in the strategies of AU and RECs aimed

at mainstreaming weather and climate into DRR need to be supported to contribute to sustainable development.

– Projects that promote networking and partnerships among NMHSs, RSMCs and end users be supported to contribute to the generation of products that meet users needs.

– Projects that promote an integrated approach in hydro-meteorological data creation, movement and processing including applications need to be supported.

– Projects aimed at improving capacities of NMHSs and RSMCs(ACMAD, ICPAC, SADC-DMC and La Reunion) need to be supported.

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WAY FORWARDWAY FORWARD• Efficient implementation of DRR activities requires a change in our way

of doing business to promote an integrated approach involving relevant disciplines and stakeholders.

• The needs of the region need to be integrated into the projects addressing DRR in the region

• Priority should be given to projects promoting the integration of weather and climate in the:– management of Drought as affects Agriculture and food security;– Development and management of water resources;– Management of floods, epidemics(malaria), pests ( locusts), and

strong winds among other hazards.– Design and development of settlements and infrastructures for

transport. • The involvement of high level decision-makers in this process is

important for resource mobilization and achievement of the intended goals.

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We can give hope to the communities in Africa by making them able to live with the current climate variability and adapt to future climates.

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ENDEND

THANK YOUAND

GOD BLESS