world bank...world bank climate resilient ningbo project local resilience action plan 213730-00 |...

World Bank

Climate Resilient Ningbo Project

Local Resilience Action Plan

213730-00

Final | June 2011

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Typewritten Text

70205 v1

213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011

110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX

World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan

213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011


Contents

Page

1 Executive Summary 4

2 Introduction 10

3 Urban Resilience Methodology 13

3.1 Overview 13

3.2 Approach 14

3.3 Hazard Assessment 14

3.4 City Vulnerability Assessment 15

3.5 Spatial Assessment 17

3.6 Stakeholder Engagement 17

3.7 Local Resilience Action Plan 18

4 Ningbo Hazard Assessment 19

4.1 Hazard Map 19

4.2 Temperature 21

4.3 Precipitation 27

4.4 Droughts 31

4.5 Heat Waves 32

4.6 Tropical Cyclones 33

4.7 Floods 35

4.8 Sea Level Rise 37

4.9 Ningbo Hazard Analysis Summary 42

5 Ningbo Vulnerability Assessment 45

5.1 People 45

5.2 Infrastructure 55

5.3 Economy 69

5.4 Environment 75

5.5 Government 80

6 Gap Analysis 87

6.1 Overview 87

6.2 Natural Disaster Inventory 87

6.3 Policy and Program Inventory 89

6.4 Summary 96

7 Recommendations 97

7.1 Overview 97

7.2 People 103

7.3 Infrastructure 106


213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011


7.4 Economy 112

7.5 Environment 115

7.6 Government 118

7.7 Prioritized Recommendations 122

8 Conclusions 126


213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011


List of Tables

Table 3.1: Ningbo City Vulnerability Assessment

Table 4.1: Ningbo Temperature Rise in Short, Medium and Long Term

Table 4.2: Tropical Cyclone Grades in China

Table 4.3: Land Subsidence in Some Chinese Cities

Table 4.4: Summary of Sea Level Rise Prediction in Zhejiang Province and Yangtze River Delta

Table 4.5: Loss on Relative Sea Level Rise in Yangtze River Delta

Table 4.6: Losses of Tidal Flats and Wetlands Caused by Sea Level Rise by 2050

Table 5.1: Schools in Ningbo

Table 5.2: Summary of Ningbo Healthcare Services

Table 5.3: Major Identified Ningbo Power Plants

Table 5.4: Top Three Energy-Consumed Heavy Industries in 2009

Table 5.5: Features of Key Industry in Ningbo

Table 5.6: Current Water Quality in Ningbo

Table 5.7: Ningbo Administrative Units

Table 5.8: Main Targets in 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015)

Table 5.9: Key Large-Scale Strategic Projects in 12th Five Year Plan

Table 6.1: Hazard Gaps

Table 6.2: City Vulnerability Gaps

Table 7.1: Matrix of Prioritized Recommendations


213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011


List of Figures

Figure 2.1: Ningbo Location

Figure 2.2: Ningbo Topology Map

Figure 2.3: Ningbo among the top Port Cities with High Population Exposure to Climate Vulnerability

Figure 3.1: Urban Resilience Methodology Framework

Figure 3.2: Climate Scenario Worldviews

Figure 3.3: Local Resilience Action Plan

Figure 4.1: Geological Hazard Distribution and Prevention Measure

Figure 4.2: Ningbo Monthly Temperature

Figure 4.3: Annual Average Temperature

Figure 4.4: Annual Temperature in Ningbo

Figure 4.5: Annual Forecasted Temperature Rise of Ningbo

Figure 4.6: Temperature Scenarios for Ningbo Spatially

Figure 4.7: Annual Rainfall in Ningbo

Figure 4.8: Monthly Rainfall in Ningbo

Figure 4.9: Average Annual Rainfall

Figure 4.10: Annual R10 Observation in Ningbo (1953-2005)

Figure 4.11: Annual Forecasted Rainfall of Ningbo

Figure 4.12: Annual Forecasted R10 of Ningbo11

Figure 4.13: Annual Forecasted R5D of Ningbo

Figure 4.14: Total Number of Serious Droughts annually in Different Districts

Figure 4.15: CDD of Ningbo under Different Scenarios

Figure 4.16: Number of Days with Temperature over 35°C in Ningbo

Figure 4.17: HWDI of Ningbo under Different Scenarios

Figure 4.18: Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in Ningbo (1956-2006)


213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011


Figure 4.19: Average Highest Wind Speed during Tropical Cyclones (1956-2006)

Figure 4.20: Geographical Distribution of Precipitation from Tropical Cyclones (1956-2006)

Figure 4.21: Total Number of Recorded Floods in Different Stations

Figure 4.22: Inundation Area of a 50-year Flood Event

Figure 4.23: Annual Sea Level at Four Monitoring Stations

Figure 4.24: Annual Sea Level Monitored by Satellite around the Ningbo Coast (29-31°N, 122-124°E)

Figure 4.25: Estimated Inundation Area of a 2m Storm Surge

Figure 4.26: Hazards in Ningbo

Figure 5.1: Population Change, 2010-2030

Figure 5.2: Population Density and Agriculture Population Distribution by Region in Year 2008

Figure 5.3: Floating Population Percentage in Major Chinese Cities

Figure 5.4: Social Services and Assets Map

Figure 5.5: Higher Education Enrolment Rate in Cities

Figure 5.6: Health Care in Different Cities

Figure 5.7: Ningbo Land use Plan (2008-2020)

Figure 5.8: Transportation Network Year 2003 to 2020

Figure 5.9: Replacement Value of All Roads

Figure 5.10: Car Ownership per 100 Capita in Cities

Figure 5.11: Power and Water Facilities

Figure 5.12: 2009 Ningbo Water Uses

Figure 5.13: Water Consumption in Different Cities

Figure 5.14: Wastewater Treatment Rates in Different Cities

Figure 5.15: Energy Consumption by Fuel

Figure 5.16: Total Energy Consumption in Different Cities

Figure 5.17: Energy Uses per Capita in Different Cities


213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011


Figure 5.18: Total Electricity Use of Ningbo

Figure 5.19: GDP per Capita in Different Cities

Figure 5.20: Air and Water Monitoring Stations

Figure 5.21: Annual Change of the Number of Days with Haze

Figure 5.22: 2009 Forest Coverage in Different Cities

Figure 5.23: Green Space in Ningbo Urban Area (2008-2020)

Figure 5.24: 2009 Public Green Space per Capita in Different Cities

Figure 5.25: Ningbo Government Leadership

Figure 5.26: WB Climate Change Resilience Ningbo Steering Group

Figure 6.1: Summary of Policy and Program Inventory

Figure 7.1: Annual Hours of Sunshine in Ningbo

Figure 7.2: Spatial Distribution of Effective Wind Energy per Square Metre of Hoop

World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan

Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011


Page 4

1 Executive Summary

Ningbo serves as the Chinese pilot city for the World Bank Climate Resilient

Cities (CRC) Program. The CRC program aims to „prepare local governments in

the East Asia Region to better understand the concepts and consequences of

climate change; how climate change consequences contribute to urban

vulnerabilities; and what is being done by city governments in East Asia and

around the world to actively engage in learning capacity building, and capital

investment programs for building sustainable, resilient communities.‟1

The Urban Resilience Methodology was applied to holistically understand

Ningbo‟s current and forecast hazards; sector vulnerabilities; and gaps. This

baseline understanding allowed for targeted recommendations to build Ningbo‟s

resilience, and form the Local Resilience Action Plan (LRAP). It also involved

close stakeholder engagement to understand the city, obtain information, and

build local capacity. The process of creating the LRAP and final LRAP intends to

be owned and implemented by the City.

Each City will have a different set of recommendations to address their urban

vulnerabilities and climate change risks. These recommendations were carefully

discussed and prioritized based on the Ningbo‟s goals, resources, and other

factors. The iterative process and implementation of the recommendations would

help support a Climate Resilient Ningbo.

Ningbo is located in the middle of China‟s coast, in the South of the Yangtze

River Delta The City has six districts (Haishu, Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai,

Beilun and Yinzhou), three county-level cities (Yuyao, Cixi and Fenghua), and

two counties (Xiangshan and Ninghai), covering an area of 9817 km2

and

containing approximately 5.7 million people. Ningbo, with its port and diverse

industries serves as an economic powerhouse in the region and country.

Climate Resilient Ningbo: to enhance Ningbo’s ability to prepare, respond, recover, and reorganize to direct and indirect climate change impacts and natural disasters

宁波气候变化适应旨在提升宁波对气候变化产生的直接影响与间接影响以及自然灾害的筹备力、应对力、恢复力以及重组力




Page 5

However, climate change is a

growing risk to the City and its

socio-economic development.

OECD ranked Ningbo as one of the

most vulnerable port cities in the

world, with high socio-economic

asset and population exposure.

Ningbo themselves have estimated

that geological hazards would

threaten about 4,600 people and

11.23 million Yuan (1.6 million

USD) of assets. Therefore, the

LRAP was prepared to support

Ningbo‟s path towards resilience.

This LRAP had four parts. Part I

investigated natural hazards-

weather observations and climate

models. Seven key climatic

parameters were selected:

Temperature- Temperature

rises at an average of 0.9°C

every decade since the 1950s.

Ningbo Meteorology Bureau

used a regional model to

downscale forecast for years

2020, 2030 and 2050 under UN

IPCC high, medium and low

scenarios. Temperature is

expected to continue to rise and

by 2050 could increase by

2.3°C. The inland areas, such

as the western mountainous

county of Ninghai will face

higher temperature increases.

Rainfall- Western parts such as

Ninghai and Fenghua face

greater precipitation. Though

the forecast predicts no

significant change in total

precipitation, the duration of

rainfall in an individual event is

likely to decrease, leading to

higher rainfall intensity.

Drought- Drought will

fluctuate, but follow an upward

trend. Cixi is susceptible to

Ningbo Facts

Location: South of Yangtze River

Delta in Zhejiang Province

Coordinate: 120°52‟ - 121°08‟E, 29°03‟ -

30°19‟N

Area: 9817 km2

Registered Population: 5.7 million

(2009)

GDP per Capita: 10,833USD (2009)

Administrative Units:

o Urban District: Haishu,

Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai and

Yinzhou

o County-Level City: Yuyao, Cixi

and Fenghua

o County: Xiangshan and Ninghai

Annual Temperature: 16.4°C

Annual Rainfall: 1450mm

Topography:

o Low elevation in the east

o Hilly landscape in the west

Port:

o Second cargo port in China

o Fourth cargo port in the world




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more droughts.

Heat Wave- The urban

area is more easily

threatened by heat

waves. Increasing heat

waves are forecasted in

the city.

Flood- Flooding occurs

more in Ninghai in the

southwest and the urban

area in the city centre

and is expected to

intensify.

Tropical Cyclone- Typhoon risk (30-year

return period) for

Ningbo‟s people is

expected to increase to

48% by 2030;

infrastructure will rise

by 125%. Xiangshan

experiences more

violent wind and storms

caused by typhoons. Its

intensity is likely to

increase.

Sea Level Rise- The city is experiencing a 3.3mm/a sea level rise. The sea

level around Yangtze River Delta north of Ningbo will undergo a rise by 16-

34cm by 2030 and 10-80cm by 2050. Low-lying areas in the east including

Cixi and urban areas will be vulnerable.

Part II examined how the city functions, and pursues socio-economic

development through a City Vulnerability Assessment. The qualitative, City

Vulnerability Assessment was based on five sectors- People, Infrastructure,

Environment and Government. Each sector was analyzed extensively on a

range of issues, and compared to other similar Chinese cities to more accurately

judge its performances.

People- Like the rest of China, Ningbo‟s population is growing, becoming

more urbanized and getting older. The elderly and floating population are

particularly vulnerable and are also increasing. Urban residents are equipped

with more healthcare services than rural residents. However, healthcare

resources for the City in general could be stronger. The level of healthcare

infrastructure per capita is lower compared to other competing cities, like

Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, etc. Training and knowledge on climate change

is low for healthcare staff and the general public.




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Infrastructure- The urban master plan has connected Ningbo well internally

and externally within the Yangtze River Delta. However, this transport

connection relies on motor vehicles. Pollution and traffic congestion are

growing along with vehicle ownership. While water supply aims to have full

coverage, the City has yet to completely take advantage of maximizing water

supply options, such as increasing water storage facilities. Water consumption

compared to other cities is still high. Waste management, including

separation, and energy security needs to be encouraged more. Total energy

consumption is increasing and is higher per capita compared to other Chinese

cities. Infrastructure is aging and unable to meet demands from a growing and

more urbanized population. For example, floods are a problem for the

drainage system in the Three River City District. The total replacement values

of infrastructure at potential risks may be up to 23 billion USD in 2009/10.

Economy- Ningbo has one of the highest GDPs among Chinese cities.

However, its wealth differs among the regions, with the rural areas such as

Ninghai less well off. Food security is a concern with fewer farmers,

increasing imports, more pollution, and natural disasters. Industries such as

petro-chemicals, iron, steel, papermaking and shipbuilding are identified as

strong economic contributors, but are energy–intensive. Climate change has

not been incorporated into the private sector‟s plans, nor have they been

involved in climate change efforts. The Port, the main lynchpin of Ningbo‟s

economy has only addressed typhoons, versus wider hazards like sea level

rise. There are few financial incentives to address climate change.

Environment- While Ningbo has a comparatively good environment,

vulnerabilities are increasing. The City is facing increasing haze days and

severe river and coastal water pollution. The green space per capita which

plays an important role in improving air quality and reducing flooding risks is

low, and even its target is weak compared to other cities. Urban

flooding/water logging and coastal flooding are increasing concerns.

Government- To support the World Bank Climate Resilient Program, Ningbo

established a Climate Change Taskforce, composed of relevant governmental

departments. However, this taskforce lacks clear responsibility and mission.

Coordination and communication between the government departments and

levels vary. General understanding and incorporation of climate change into

policy and decision-making is limited. Resources, education and training on

climate change, climate change modelling, and hydro-meteorological and

geophysical modelling are weak.

Part III is the Gap Analysis. It was performed to understand the government

actions and their effectiveness to respond to natural disasters, and whether the

current and planned policies and programs address the current and future climate

change impacts and natural disasters. This part was supported by the following

inventories:




Page 8

Inventory of Natural Disasters- summarized the major, recent natural

disasters, corresponding government actions, and subsequent socio-economic

damage. Known government actions are limited to pre-disaster, like relocating

people and moving ships to shelters.

Inventory of Policies and Programs- covered ongoing and planned polices

from government agencies that address the City‟s vulnerabilities and climate

change risk. The 40 plus policies, range from comprehensive policies, such as

the 12th Five Year Plan to sectoral plans such as the energy savings plan. Most

of the plans are ongoing, with the farthest timeframe out to 2020.

By integrating the hazard and city vulnerability assessments with the two

inventories, the gap analysis concluded:

The proportion of socio-economic damages for Ningbo, within Zhejiang

Province is high.

Government actions focus on pre- disasters. Further information on

government action during the other stages of disasters was limited.

Plans and programs rarely or partially address climate change and Ningbo‟s

Vulnerabilities. For example, the City Master Plan 2020 will expose an

additional 150,000 residents and 20 million m2 building areas in 50-year flood

zones. While the city has gradually formulated emergency system, no

emergency plan has taken changing climate into account.

Part IV therefore was to develop recommendations for each of the city

vulnerability sectors. The 70 plus recommendations are specific to Ningbo‟s

vulnerabilities and risks. They are described briefly, intended to serve as an

introduction. Feasibility studies are recommended before further action or

implementation. Overall, there is a need to:

Increase climate change awareness and education for government officials,

healthcare workers, the private sector, vulnerable populations, and the general

public;

Introduce and apply spatial and other tools to model and monitor climate

change hazards; and

Integrate climate change risks into all sectors of decision-making.

A final workshop was carried out by local stakeholders and the Word Bank Team

to discuss, modify and prioritize the proposed recommendations. A

Recommendation Chart, divided by cost, complexity, timeframe, and other

factors was built into the prioritization exercise for consideration. The local

stakeholders ultimately prioritized five recommendations:

Strengthen Climate Change Modelling- Climate modelling in Ningbo was

limited, and attributed to some of the limitations in the LRAP‟s hazard and

vulnerability assessment. Ningbo recognized the need to enhance its climate




Page 9

modelling for more thorough and accurate understanding of its current and

future hazards. The Ningbo Metrology Bureau could lead this. It is considered

a medium to longer-term recommendation with greater complexity and costs,

partially due to its greater staff training, and modelling tools and resources.

Further discussion includes how the ongoing modelling results will be shared

and explained to other government departments and affect policy- making.

Increase Research on Climate Change Impacts on Health – While it is

known that climate change poses a detrimental impact on human health, it has

yet to be fully understood or prepared for in Ningbo. The Ningbo Public

Health Bureau would take the lead in improving this. Its complexity, costs,

and time-frame is seen moderately, with the Ningbo Public Health Bureau

taking the lead.

Determine Climate Change Taskforce Mission and Formal Role- The

Ningbo Climate Change Taskforce needs to have a better understanding of its

mission and role. Its divided responsibilities among the members and for the

taskforce as a whole need to be clear and accepted by all. Other government

officials and departments, as well as the private sector and public need to

know about the Taskforce and possibly have representation. To effectively

implement the LRAP and continue Ningbo‟s climate change efforts, this

recommendation needs to be done soon, but can be done fairly easily with

limited costs. NRDC could take the lead in this.

Implement Port Resilience Plan- As the main economic driver in the city,

the Port needs to have a more comprehensive climate change plan. Its typhoon

preparations are noted, but insufficient against expected more intense and

frequent typhoons, and other natural hazards. Naturally, the lead agencies for

this would be the Port Authority and Ningbo Port Cooperation Ltd.

Promote Greening – Despite its higher, future target of 15m2/capita, Ningbo

has comparatively less green space than its competing Chinese cities. The

socio-economic benefits of green space are known, but it also is seen as a way

to help address climate change, especially water management. The Urban

Management Bureau and Environmental Protection Bureau are suggested to

jointly look into this recommendation further.

The recommendations mark the final section of the LRAP, but not the end. The

LRAP is intended to be a „living document‟, with the urban resilience

methodology as an iterative process. Information collection for Ningbo was

difficult and had to be substituted or adapted at times. The current assessments

reflects the available information during the project duration, but can be updated

as the City changes or with new information. This LRAP is a start to a Climate

Resilient Ningbo.

Cities that are resilient to climate change will survive and prosper against a

greater range of situations, and absorb extreme or unexpected shocks and stresses

relatively gracefully, allowing rapid recovery of critical functions. Together, the

World Bank Team and Ningbo aim to support a Climate Resilient Ningbo, a

city that is able to continue to prosper and thrive with climate change.




Page 10

Figure 2.1: Ningbo Location

2 Introduction

Ningbo is located along the eastern coast of China, south of the Yangtze River

Delta. The City covers approximately 115km

east to west and 140km north to south. The

Zhoushan Archipelago is to the east,

Hangzhou Bay to the north facing Shanghai,

Shaoxing to the west, and Taizhou to the

south of the City. Zhejiang Province‟s Capital

City, Hangzhou is around 140km from

Ningbo.

The City currently has six urban districts:

Haishu, Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai,

Beilun, and Yinzhou, three county-level

cities, comprising Yuyao, Cixi and Fenghua

in the north, and two counties, Xiangshan and

Ninghai in the south.

Historically, Ningbo is one of China‟s oldest

cities and has been culturally significant

throughout many dynasties. It is the

birthplace of the Hemudu Culture dating back

more than seven thousand years, as well as the Yue Kiln in Shanglin, one of the

origins of Chinese civilization. Its economic importance is also noted as a major

trading centre along the Silk Road, and a key port city today.

In 1994, the State Council approved Ningbo as an Economic and Technological

Development Zone.2 As one of the fourteen quasi-provincial cities with provincial

management of jurisdiction, Ningbo has the freedom to pursue its own economic

agenda, which it has done so with great success. The city had a six-fold increase

in per capita income between 1985 and 1994 and a subsequent doubling of these

levels as it entered the new millennium.

While its strategic location has brought it economic success, it is also vulnerable

to climate change impacts. The elevation of the City ranges from sea level to

approximately 950m. Mountainous areas are situated in the west and south of the

City. However, other parts are prone to sea level rise, flooding, and storm surges:

About 40% of the total land area is below 10m elevation

Most of the low elevated area is in the northern half of Ningbo and

along the coastline

Most of the urban developed area are within the 10m or below

elevation above sea level

According to studies by “Ningbo Climate and Climate Change” book,3 the climate

change conditions in the past 50 years for the City can be summarized as follows:

Increasing rate of average year/ month temperature

New heights of extreme high and low temperatures




Page 11

Increasing number of days greater than 35˚C

Decreasing total number of annual rainy days

Increasing frequency of tropical cyclones

Figure 2.2: Ningbo Topology Map

4

Ningbo has been recognized by OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation

and Development) as one of the most vulnerable port cities in the world to coastal




Page 12

flooding and climate change by 2070s.5 Coastal cities, such as Ningbo, are

particularly exposed to rising sea levels and storm surges due to climate change.

The following figure presents the exposed population in the identified global

major port cities.

Figure 2.3: Ningbo among the top Port Cities with High Population Exposure

to Climate Vulnerability 5

The combination of Ningbo‟s vulnerability to climate change, the importance of

its socio-economic status, and cultural significance makes it an ideal pilot Chinese

city for the World Bank‟s Climate Resilient Cities Programme.




Page 13

Figure 3.1: Urban Resilience

Methodology Framework

3 Urban Resilience Methodology

OBJECTIVES-

To holistically understand the main climate change induced, urban

risks, and provide prioritized recommendations to increase resilience

against that risk

To create a Local Resilience Action Plan for the City to implement

3.1 Overview

Climate change has direct effects on the most vulnerable population (e.g.

flooding, excessive rainfall affecting shelter facilities, others). It also has indirect

effects on the urban environment,

determined mainly by the dependency

of urban dwellers on the effectiveness

of the urban systems that support their

livelihood and wellbeing. Direct losses

are losses to assets, whereas indirect

losses are the losses that accrue while

productive assets remain damaged or

destroyed. Climate change will affect

wider urban systems such as transport

networks, potable water facilities, food

supply networks, amongst others.

Failure of these urban systems as a

result of climate change dynamics will

impose additional burden on the urban

poor and those least able to cope.

Similarly, natural hazards are geomorphological (earthquake, volcano, tsunami)

or hydro-meteorological (cyclone, flood, heat wave, landslide, drought) events.

Extreme hazard events have the potential to cause significant damage to urban

areas, resulting in loss of livelihoods and ultimately loss of life. The severity of

the impacts of natural hazard in any location is dependent on its characteristics,

and the vulnerability of the local people and place.

Understanding urban resilience means capturing three interrelated components.

Urban System consists of having a comprehensive understanding of the city, how

it functions and is organized; and future conditions and plans. Together with

Vulnerability, it identifies the specific weaknesses or risks within the urban

system. On the other side is Climate Change, and with the urban system, it

identifies the direct and indirect climate change impacts that would affect the city

and its assets. It also acknowledges how the urban system, and its traditional way

of development based on resource inefficiency, fossil-fuel driven growth, and

overconsumption can contribute to climate change vulnerability.

These three interrelated components are the basis in understanding the overall

city, its vulnerabilities, and climate change impacts to develop specific




Page 14

recommendations that build a path of resilience- the Local Resilience Action

Plan. The Local Resilience Action Plan for Ningbo is part of a greater effort by

the World Bank to build Climate Resilient Cities, with Ningbo as the Chinese city

pilot.

3.2 Approach

This methodology required conducting a Hazard Assessment and City

Vulnerability Assessment. The first involved understanding the major natural

hazards and climate change impacts that affect and will affect the city. The latter

examined the city‟s ability to effectively develop resilience to the identified

natural hazards and climate change impacts. Both assessments would be

supported spatially to plot major socio-economic significance and their

vulnerability.

This comprehensive understanding would create a baseline to allow the City to

address their gaps. The gap analysis reviewed past actions and policies, to

determine the level of expertise, awareness, capacity, as well as data/information

gaps. It also looked at past natural hazards, their socio-economic damage, and

corresponding government action. Understanding what the city has done to

address natural hazards from preparation to recovery would pinpoint the strengths

and weaknesses the City has to combat its vulnerabilities.

Finally, the City prioritized the recommendations given, based on their goals and

resources, to build resilience. The hard and soft recommendations were separated

by sector to target the corresponding vulnerabilities. It included a matrix, with

estimated time frame, costs, complexity, etc to guide planning and discussion. The

overall vulnerability assessment and parallel targeted recommendations matrix

would be the process and deliverable to start the Local Resilience Action Plan.

3.3 Hazard Assessment

To understand the major hazards and climate change impacts, the Team worked

closely with Ningbo Meteorology Bureau to examine the City‟s main weather

observations and build climate forecasts. Past weather observations for the coastal

port city include:

Temperature

Precipitation

Drought

Heat wave

Tropical cyclones

Flooding

Sea level rise

The Team downscaled the most suitable GCM to forecast temperature under the

IPCC SRES scenarios of A1B, A2, B1, and for the time periods of 2020, 2030,

and 2050. The SRES scenarios were constructed on future economically and




Page 15

environmentally driven development paths. Assumptions were made on various

demographic, socio-political variables, such as technological advancement, land-

use, population growth, GDP, level of global cooperation, etc. All scenarios were

considered equally sound. These scenarios ultimately produced estimated carbon

emissions rates and level of climate change impacts.

Figure 3.2: Climate Scenario Worldviews

The temperature forecasts were then plotted spatially. Precipitation was forecasted

using R10 and R5D as the main indices. R10 measures the number of days that

daily precipitation exceeds 10 mm, while R5D represents the total maximum

amount of rainwater in an interval of 5 consecutive days. The indicator

Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) was used to look at drought, while heat waves

utilised the heat wave duration index.

As data were limited, literature reviews were conducted to forecast tropical

cyclones, flooding and sea level rise at the Yangtze River region and Zhejiang

provincial level.

In understanding weather observations and forecasting climate models and

extreme weather events, the Team identified the type and level of major hazards

Ningbo would be facing, and developed targeted recommendations to address

them. This information helped Ningbo manage limited resources and make better

decisions on improving their resilience. For example, after review, it is known

that earthquakes are not a major hazard for Ningbo. The City is not located in one

of China‟s earthquake belts, its seismicity is relatively low and the maximum

magnitude of earthquake occurred is small. Thus, the City can focus its efforts and

resources on more severe and frequent hazards, such as flooding.

3.4 City Vulnerability Assessment

The City Vulnerability Assessment aimed to understand how well the city‟s

society and institutions deal with natural hazards and climate change impacts. It

was based on a moment in time, with the available information.

This was compared against neighbouring, competing cities for similar local

context and conditions, and seen in light of the climate models and extreme

weather event forecast. Together the five indicators- People, Infrastructure,

Economy, Environment and Government- formed an overall assessment of

Ningbo‟s vulnerability level. However, splitting them also helped target the city

recommendations in the most critical areas.

In general, it is known climate change impacts and natural hazards would be more

severe and frequent. The previous assessment identified hazard aspects, levels,

More Economically-

Driven

More Environmentally-

Driven

Greater

Globalization A1 B1

Greater

Regionalization A2 B2




Page 16

and general location. This assessment looked at the city vulnerability level against

those hazards, including awareness, plans, and resources. It aimed to answer the

following key questions, against their corresponding applications.

Table 3.1: Ningbo City Vulnerability Assessment

Sector Key Questions Application

PEOPLE What is the population,

where are they located, and

what are the demographics?

What are their resources and

awareness to climate

change?

What are the major social

infrastructures, and where

are they located?

How is the current

healthcare, including access

and location?

Assessed if population and

social infrastructure are located

in vulnerable areas

Determined if population,

especially elderly and other

vulnerable groups are aware

and equipped to combat climate

change

Looked at whether healthcare is

adequate, especially during

hazards and recovery

INFRAST

RUCTUR

E

What is the land use, and

how is it dispersed?

What is the major transport

network, and how is it

connected within the city

and region?

What are the water,

wastewater, waste, and

energy networks, and their

capacity? Where are they

located?

Determined whether the

infrastructure can supply the

city‟s growing needs, and can

continue to support socio-

economic development, such as

water for industry

Determined if there is adequate

back-up and if critical services

can function in emergency,

such as power for hospitals or

cleared roads for police travel

ECONOM

Y What is the GDP and

economic development

level?

What are the key industries

and where are they located?

What is the insurance

system and level of

coverage?

Determined whether the

business sector is aware and

equipped to handle climate

change, including insurance for

recovery

ENVIRON

MENT What is the level of air and

water quality?

Looked at whether and how

well the environment can

support climate resilience




Page 17

Sector Key Questions Application

What is the level of green

space?

measures, such as flood control

GOVERN

MENT What is the government

structure?

How does the city manage

disaster risks?

Assessed if the government is

aware and equipped to combat

climate change, such as

adequate training and

information-sharing across the

departments

Determined whether

management deal with climate

change

3.5 Spatial Assessment

The spatial assessment is a good way of aggregating data into visual

representations that are powerful tools for understanding vulnerabilities,

conducting community outreach, and engaging policymakers and donors that may

influence the city‟s capital improvement programs and capacity building efforts.

The spatial analysis was accomplished by first compiling the required information

in maps. The maps captured information on the current description of the city in

terms of the administrative boundaries, land use, people and economic assets and

location prone to various hazards. The maps also illustrated the future version of

the city which is used to evaluate the changing profile of the city and the need for

undertaking resilience measures.

Tangible results of this spatial assessment were maps that ha\d been included in

each sections of the vulnerability assessment, as well as in the hazard assessment.

Software ESRI Geographic Information System (GIS) is applied in this Study. It

was essential for the Team to acquire the necessary data in their right scale,

coverage and format. In cases where suitable formats were not available, the team

extracted the data from images or PDFs by digitizing them into the GIS layer,

which limited the data accuracy.

3.6 Stakeholder Engagement

Stakeholder engagement is often defined as the collaboration of the traditional

project controlling bodies: the government, the local authority, the financial

backer, etc; with those whose interests may be positively or negatively affected by

a proposal and whose voice would go unheard without active engagement. Each

stakeholder has different views on city priorities and vulnerabilities; and climate

change and disaster risk. It is important to engage the various views and arrive at

mutually agreed position for long term commitment.

Three workshops were organized and hosted by Ningbo Municipality with all

relevant stakeholders:




Page 18

Local Resilience Action Plan

Figure 3.3: Local Resilience

Action Plan

Sensitization – presentation of the project, sensitization of the importance of, and links between, disaster risk management (DRM), climate change adaptation (CCA), and city management functions and discussion about contents.

Inception – presentation of the vulnerability assessment and spatial analysis and discussion over contents and next steps.

Prioritization – presentation and discussion over recommendations for actions coming from the study. The prioritization as given by the stakeholders is presented here in the Recommendations Chapter.

3.7 Local Resilience Action Plan

The LRAP is the start of a climate resilient Ningbo. It is not intended to be static.

It can be refined and further developed with new information or changing

expectations, as a „living document‟.

Recommendations were identified and prioritized based on the gap analysis, needs

of Ningbo, timeframe, and resources

required. Through the stakeholder

engagement process and governance

understanding, responsible parties could

be identified for project implementation

and delivery.

The Team has developed a matrix of

activities to address Ningbo‟s

vulnerabilities. A decision support matrix

to guide policymakers on the appropriate

measures to consider given local context

and timeframe has been developed and

discussed with stakeholders.

Overall, the priority activity would be

strongly supported, specific, implementable and valuable to Ningbo‟s resilience.

While activities selected will differ in their cost, delivery time and targeted

benefit, there will be opportunities for cross-learning and training. Projects could

occur concurrently and leverage each other‟s outputs. Responsible parties will

have opportunities to increase communication with each other and share project

experiences.

“A Local Resilience Action Plan, through the World Bank Climate Resilient

Cities Primer is a tool for local governments, like Ningbo, to actively engage

in the training, capacity building, and capital investment programs that are

identified as priorities for building sustainable, resilient communities ”1

World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo

Draft Local Resilience Action Plan



Page 19

4 Ningbo Hazard Assessment

4.1 Hazard Map

The hazard map identified natural disasters all over the City, particularly

geological natural hazards, such as landslide, flash floods and land subsidence.6

The map showed that Ningbo has about 6,926km2 of potential area exposed to

different levels of geological hazards, accounting for 71% of the overall city area.

The following areas are deem at risk:

Hilly areas in southern and western part like Ninghai and Yuyao face high

geological hazard risks in landslide and flash flood;7

Low-lying areas such as urban districts and the coast suffer a medium-

level risk8 in land subsidence.

The integration with the transportation network showed that some planned and

currently constructed traffic lines such as Yongtaiwen Railway and Xiangshan

Highway will pass through the risky areas, further complicating the risk

mangement, control measures and risk adapatation.

Ningbo has implemented the Geological Prevention Plan and specifically selected

192 locations for potential geological hazard as prevention areas. It is estimated

that these risky areas would threaten about 4,600 people and 11.23 million Yuan

(1.6 million USD) of assets. Preventive measures with respect to monitoring,

mitigation, adaptation and relocation according to the severity of risks have been

included in the Plan to 2015. These measures mainly target the coast, urban

center, and vulnerable areas in the south and west of the City. 9





Page 20

Figure 4.1: Geological Hazard Distribution and Prevention Measure

4




Page 21

4.2 Temperature

4.2.1 Observations

Subject to the subtropical monsoon climate, Ningbo is featured with warm and

moist weather. The annual mean temperature is around 16.4°C (1953-2005). The

highest month mean temperature is around 27.8°C in July while the lowest month

mean temperature is around 5.0°C in January.

Figure 4.2: Ningbo Monthly Temperature 3

5.06.0

9.4

15.0

19.9

23.8

27.8 27.5

23.6

18.7

13.1

7.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tem

pera

ture ( C

)

Month

Ningbo Monthly Temperature




Page 22

Figure 4.3: Annual Average Temperature

4

The temperature in Ningbo reveals:

High elevated land has lower temperature than low-lying areas;

Western Ninghai and Fenghua are 4°C lower than Cixi and Beilun;

Temperature is higher in urban area than peri-urban regions, reflecting urban heat island effect to a certain extent;




Page 23

Two highest temperatures, 41.7 and 41.2 °C are from very developed areas, Yuyao and Yinzhou Stations.

Since the 1990s, various measuring indicators of temperature including average

(Figure 4.4), maximum and minimum temperatures in Ningbo have steadily

increased, though the maximum and minimum temperature grew at a slower rate.

Between 1980 and 2005, the average temperature rose at a speed of 0.9°C every

10 years. Since 1993, the annual average temperature has not been below the

average (1953-2005). Meanwhile, low temperature days have decreased.

Temperature rise during the winter and in urban areas seems more apparent.

Figure 4.4: Annual Temperature in Ningbo

3

4.2.2 Forecast

Based on the available climate change information, the Team10

compared and

selected the particular climate change model to be used for Ningbo. Review

criteria like resolution/grids, time, available information, mapping and spatial

analysis, ability to accommodate topographic changes, etc. determined the model

chosen. The regional model – RegCM3 was chosen based on its suitability for

local use and ability to generate relatively accurate results.

Using the selected model, the „best estimate‟ and „likely range‟ of temperature rise

in Ningbo for the three scenarios at three different temporal scales were shown in

the following table.

Table 4.1: Ningbo Temperature Rise in Short, Medium and Long Term 11

Temperature

(°C)

East Asia Ningbo

Best Estimate Likely Range Best Estimate Likely Range

2020

A2 0.97 0.36-1.55 0.31 0.01-0.74

A1B 0.89 0.36-1.50 0.82 0.73-0.91

B1 0.92 0.38-1.42 0.56 0.01-1.40

R² = 0.7578

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001

0.1

C

Year

Annual Temperature in Ningbo

Annual Temperature

Average

Poly. (Annual Temperature)




Page 24

Temperature

(°C)

East Asia Ningbo

Best Estimate Likely Range Best Estimate Likely Range

2030

A2 1.21 0.51-1.95 0.93 0.33-1.31

A1B 1.44 0.76-2.23 1.62 1.44-1.78

B1 1.15 0.60-1.71 0.98 0.01-1.81

2050

A2 2.06 1.23-2.67 1.43 0.81-1.84

A1B 2.26 1.29-3.19 2.26 2.05-2.53

B1 1.70 0.94-2.67 1.34 0.27-2.19

By 2020, Ningbo will undergo around 0.31-0.82 °C temperature rise while East Asia will see temperature increase at 0.89-0.97°C;

By 2030, temperature rise in Ningbo will go up to 1°C. East Asia will have more than 1°C temperature increase;

By 2050, Ningbo and East Asia will see similar highest temperature increases under Scenario A1B.

Overall, East Asia will experience higher temperature rise than Ningbo.

Figure 4.5: Annual Forecasted Temperature Rise of Ningbo

11

The steady upward trends could be seen in the annual temperature of Ningbo

under all three scenarios. It is estimated that the maximum annual temperature

will rise to over 19°C by 2050 under scenario A1B.




Page 25

Scenario A2 – Year 2020 Scenario A2 – Year 2030 Scenario A2 – Year 2050

Scenario B1 – Year 2020 Scenario B1 – Year 2030 Scenario B1 – Year 2050

Scenario A1B – Year 2020 Scenario A1B – Year 2030 Scenario A1B – Year 2050

Figure 4.6: Temperature Scenarios for Ningbo Spatially 4, 11

Under different scenarios, the City of Ningbo will see:

Temperature continues to rise along the timeline;




Page 26

Higher temperature increase takes place in inland regions, particularly hilly areas of Ninghai and Fenghua, whereas lower annual temperature have been observed;

Temperature rise under scenario B1 varies spatially. The temperature rise along coastal area like Beilun could be 1.4°C lower than inland regions;

The fluctuation of temperature rise under scenario A1B spatially is limited. By 2050, the whole city will generally experience over 2°C temperature rise.




Page 27

4.3 Precipitation

4.3.1 Observations

The annual average rainfall of Ningbo is around 1450mm (1953-2005). The

maximum rainfall on record was 1856.6mm in 1998 while the minimum rainfall

was 851.4mm in 1967.

Figure 4.7: Annual Rainfall in Ningbo 3

Ningbo‟s rainy season starts from June and ends at September. During these

months, the City could receive around 50% of its total annual rainfall. The

maximum month rainfall is 205.8mm in June, while minimum rainfall is 48.6mm

in December.

Figure 4.8: Monthly Rainfall in Ningbo 3

66.474.3

126.9118.6

136.0

205.8

160.6

186.0170.8

89.3

66.3

48.6

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ra

infa

ll (m

m)

Month

Monthly Rainfall Depth

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)

Year

Annual Rainfall in NingboAnnual Average




Page 28

Figure 4.9: Average Annual Rainfall

4

Ningbo‟s annual rainfall reflects:

Spatial rainfall varies throughout the City in the range of 1310-1720mm;

Higher precipitation is in south-western mountainous regions, like Ninghai and Fenghua, with lower annual temperature but higher temperature increase;

Beilun and Cixi in the north receive up to 400mm less rainwater;




Page 29

Urban area is at the intermediate level in the total rainfall amount.

The indicator R10-the number of days with daily precipitation equals or exceeds

10mm displays significant variations from 1953 to 2005. The maximum R10

occurred in year 2002 with over 40 continuous days of rainfall. The historical

minimum R10 with less than 20 rainy days took place in 1967 when the City was

hit by serious drought.

Figure 4.10: Annual R10 Observation in Ningbo (1953-2005) 3

4.3.2 Forecast

In terms of annual total rainfall, the forecast results under three scenarios all see

notable variations but keep constant in the long run. The maximum annual rainfall

could reach around 1800mm, 24% higher than historic annual rainfall under

scenario A2 while the minimum annual rainfall could go down to around 900mm

under scenario B1, 38% less than historic records.

Figure 4.11: Annual Forecasted Rainfall of Ningbo 11

10

20

30

40

50

1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001

Da

ys

Year

Annual R10 in Ningbo




Page 30

Apart from the total rainfall, two indicators selected to examine future

precipitation are:

R10 – number of days with daily precipitation equals or exceeds 10 mm;

R5D– total maximum amount of rainwater in an interval of 5 consecutive days.

Similar to the historical records, the forecasted R10 under all three scenarios

displays great fluctuations along the time. The minimum forecasted R10 is over

20 days under scenario B1, exceeding the historic value. The maximum of more

than 50 days under scenario A1B, also is higher than the historical record.

Figure 4.12: Annual Forecasted R10 of Ningbo11

However, regardless the fluctuations, there is a generally slight downward trend in

R10, demonstrating a decline in rainfall duration. While the total amount of

rainfall remains unchanged, the rainfall intensity would increase, potentially

causing heavy storms and flooding.

Similarly, R5D manifests no obvious changing trend under all three scenarios.

The maximum R5D could exceed 160mm under scenario B1. This means five

days of rainfall will surpass a dry month‟s total rainfall. The minimum rainfall

amount could drop to around 90mm.

Figure 4.13: Annual Forecasted R5D of Ningbo11




Page 31

4.4 Droughts

4.4.1 Observations

Drought gradually takes place when temperature increase causes higher

evaporation, rising water demand but without sufficient incoming rainwater. As

mentioned in the precipitation section, the rainfall volume will not substantially

change, but come heavier under a shorter period. Without effective water resource

management, such uneven rainfall distribution at temporal and spatial scales could

result local flooding or drought.

In Ningbo, droughts review:

The occurrence usually appears from July to September;

Hilly area such as Xiangshan (represented by Shipu Station) is easily affected by drought, where the area is also susceptible to strong wind induced by tropical cyclones;

Vulnerable area with less rainfall and long sunshine hours (see later section), like Cixi also experience comparatively frequent drought;

In 2003, the most severe drought attacked the city, lasting for 201 days with less 20 R10 days.

Figure 4.14: Total Number of Serious Droughts annually in Different Districts

3

4.4.2 Forecast

To forecast the droughts that might hit Ningbo, the indicator Consecutive Dry

Days (CDD) was selected. Different from the longest dry days, CDD is defined as

the maximum consecutive days without precipitation (rainfall less than 1mm).

2.4

3.9

3.23.0

2.32.1

4.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Yinzhou Cixi Yuyao Beilun Fenghua Ninghai Shipu

Total Number of Seirous Droughts (1971-2005)




Page 32

Accordingly, the trends of all scenarios oscillate, showing peak and trough

through the periods. In general, there is likely a slight upward trend under

scenarios A1B and A2 while scenario B1 has no significant trend. Scenario A1B

shows the highest number of consecutive days (more than 70) without

precipitation.

Figure 4.15: CDD of Ningbo under Different Scenarios11

4.5 Heat Waves

4.5.1 Observations

Hot days are defined as those above 35°C. 12

As seen in Figure 4.16, the number

of hot days has been rising. The urban area in Ningbo only had eight hot days per

year between 1960 and 1979. But this number rose to 22 days between 1990 and

1999, and 31 days between 2000 and 2009. The highest temperature in the 20th

century was 39.5°C. However, the 21st century, already recorded four years with

temperatures exceeding 40 °C. In 2009, the highest temperature reached 41.3 °C.

Figure 4.16: Number of Days with Temperature over 35°C in Ningbo

3 Error!

Bookmark not defined.

R² = 0.4703

0

10

20

30

40

50

1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001

Nu

mb

er o

f D

ay

s

Year

Number of Days with Temperature over 35 C in

Ningbo Number of days

Poly. (Number of days )




Page 33

4.5.2 Forecast

The Heat Wave Duration Index (HWDI) is the number of days where, in intervals

of at least 5 consecutive days, the daily maximum temperature is larger than the

1970-2000 average maximum temperature.

Like the annual temperature rise, all the scenarios show an increase in HWDI. The

maximum value of HWDI would almost reach 60 days under scenario A1B in

year 2040s. After 2040s, HWDI could go over 20 days ever year, greater than the

base HWDI at 10.2 days.

Figure 4.17: HWDI of Ningbo under Different Scenarios 11

4.6 Tropical Cyclones

4.6.1 Observation

Tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a large low-pressure zone and

numerous thunderstorms that cause strong winds and heavy rains. The Grade of

Tropical Cyclones in China categorizes tropical cyclones into six grades based on

wind speeds.

Table 4.2: Tropical Cyclone Grades in China13

Grades Maximum Mean

Wind Speed (m/s)

Maximum Wind

Scale (grade)

1 Tropical Depression 10.8~17.1 6~7

2 Tropical Storm 17.2~24.4 8~9

3 Severe Tropical Storm 24.5~32.6 10~11

4 Typhoon 32.7~41.4 12~13

5 Severe Typhoon 41.5~50.9 14~15

6 Super Typhoon ≥ 51.0 16 or above

Observations in Ningbo have seen:

Tropical cyclone season- May to December;

4.7 average tropical cyclones per year;

More than one 3+ tropical cyclones affect the City per year;




Page 34

Genesis from Northwest Pacific.

Figure 4.18 indicated that the number of tropical cyclones in Ningbo has a

slightly upward trend, though this increase is not regarded as statistically

significant.

Figure 4.18: Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in Ningbo (1956-2006)

3

Tropical cyclones that affect Ningbo usually carry strong wind and heavy storms,

resulting in:

The wind speed decreases from eastern coast to western inland region;

Strongest wind speed is in Xiangshan, where several ports are located;

The induced heavy rainfall from tropical cyclones takes place in western part of the City, similar to the annual precipitation. Ninghai receives the most rainwater, followed by Xiangshan;

Cixi is less likely to be affected by tropical cyclones, where the area suffers relatively frequent drought, less rainfall but long sunlight hours.

y = 0.0119x + 4.4565

R² = 0.007

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Nu

mb

er o

f T

imes

Year

Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in NingboTropical Cyclones Annual

Frequency

Linear (Tropical Cyclones

Annual Frequency)

Figure 4.19: Average Highest Wind

Speed during Tropical Cyclones

(1956-2006) 3

Figure 4.20: Geographical

Distribution of Precipitation from

Tropical Cyclones (1956-2006) 3




Page 35

4.6.2 Forecast

It is difficult to forecast tropical cyclones due to large uncertainties in the models.

There are some general global forecasts for the region:

Tropical Cyclones will increase in the Northwest Pacific by the end of the 21

st century.

14

IPCC AR4, scenario A1B, shows a 20-65% reduction in maximum wind speed of 20-60m/s, and 92% increase in wind speed over 60m/s.

15

Average intensity will increase by 2-11% by 2100.16

Initial studies have estimated typhoon risk (30-year return period) for Ningbo‟s people would to increase by 48% by 2030, while for infrastructure would increase by 125%.

17

4.7 Floods

4.7.1 Observations

Ningbo‟s storms have three main types:

Typhoon storms- high intensity and long duration, easily causing flash floods and landslide, etc.

Plum rains-long duration, likely inducing landslide; and

Strong convective storms- sudden occurrence with high intensity, usually leading to flash floods, landslides and flooding in low-lying areas.

Between 1953 and 2005, there were a total of 167 storms occurring mostly from

May to October. As indicated in Figure 4.21, the floods reveal:

There will be 0.4-1.4 floods per year in Ningbo;

Ninghai suffers the most floods, almost twice as the other districts. This is related to its hilly topography, higher annual precipitation and typhoon rainfall;

Urban area represented by Yinzhou is the second most flood-prone area.




Page 36

Figure 4.21: Total Number of Recorded Floods in Different Stations

3

Though the current data are partial, it is noted that a 50-year flood in Ningbo is

expected to inundate over 500,000 people in the city, who are mainly located in

the urban areas in the proximity of the three rivers.18

Figure 4.22: Inundation Area of a 50-year Flood Event19

4.7.2 Forecast

Forecasting flooding in Ningbo is difficult due to lack of flooding maps, drainage

systems, tidal information, etc. There are some regional forecasts:

0

20

40

60

80

Yinzhou Cixi Yuyao Beilun Fenghua Ninghai Shipu

Nu

mb

er o

f T

imes

Stations

Total Number of Recorded Floods




Page 37

Eastern China will see an increase of the 1/100 frequency of flood occurrence in one hundred years;

20

Increased flooding is expected in the mid-lower Yangtze River, where Ningbo is located;

21

Zhejiang Province will face more severe floods by 2020; 22

If future sea level is to rise to 65cm, the frequency of high water in 100-year return would likely increase by ten times, causing 110.1 billion Yuan economic loss to the Delta.

23

It is forecasted that the sea level rise would accelerate the storm surges and flood

disasters in Yangtze River Delta. OECD ranked 136 port cities of over 1 million

population with high exposure to one-in-100 year surge induced flooding. It

reviewed exposure of population and assets, in 2005, and 2070. In population

exposure and economic assets, Ningbo was ranked 14th and 11

th respectively out

of the top 20 world cities.5 It is expected that Ningbo will experience high

absolute exposure; a large scale flooding could impact substantial portions of the

city infrastructure, population, and socio-economic activity.

4.8 Sea Level Rise

4.8.1 Observations

Accelerated sea level rise due to global warming is indisputable:

Global sea level rises at a rate of 1.8±0.5mm/a between 1996-2003; 24

China sea level rises at a rate of 2.5mm/a; 25

East China Sea and the Yangtze River Delta sea level rises at a rate of 3.1mm/a;

25

Zhejiang Province sea level rises at a rate of 3.3mm/a between 1970 and 2000.

25

The results recorded between 1960 and 1990 near Ningbo‟s four tide gauges show

the increase in sea level. The increase rates are:

Changtu (30°15‟N, 122°18‟E)- 2.0mm/a,

Dinghai (30°00‟N, 122°04‟E) - 3.6mm/a,

Zhenhai (29°57‟N, 121°43‟E) - 4.0mm/a,

Xize (29°37‟N, 121°50‟E) - 1.0mm/a,

Average - 2.1mm/a.




Page 38

However, since 1990, the data from satellite surveillance show a 5.8mm/a rising

rate around the Ningbo Coast (29-31°N, 122-124°E). Figure 4.23 illustrated the

sea level monitoring results at four stations of Ningbo and Figure 4.24 showed

the features of sea level between 1993 and 2007.

Figure 4.23: Annual Sea Level at Four Monitoring Stations 11

Figure 4.24: Annual Sea Level Monitored by Satellite around the Ningbo Coast (29-31°N, 122-124°E)

11

Sea level rise effect would be further exacerbated by many factors, in particular

land subsidence. Wu et al. discovered land subsidence has occurred in Ningbo at a

10mm/year. 26

Though the subsidence rate is relatively lower than other coastal

cities, the subsidence still makes the sea level rise more challenging.

Ningbo Coast Annual Sea Level




Page 39

Table 4.3: Land Subsidence in Some Chinese Cities 26

City Tianjin

Shanghai

Suzhou

Wuxi Ningbo Fuzhou Zhanjiang

Max total subsidence measured/mm

2780 1680 1100 1140 460 679 413

Subsidence area/km

2

7000 2600 200 100 150 690

Subsidence rate/mm.a

-1

47 30 21 10

Ningbo‟s economic asset, the Beilun Port, along with its surrounding industrial

area is within the 2m inundation area; an estimated 185,000 people reside there. 27

Figure 4.25: Estimated Inundation Area of a 2m Storm Surge

28

4.8.2 Forecast

Over the next decade, the State Oceanic Administration forecasted China‟s coastal

sea level will likely rise by 32 mm (3.2 mm/a).29

Yangtze River Delta (YRD) will see a 16-34 cm sea level rise by 2030, and 25-51

cm rise by 2050. 30

Taking account land subsidence, YRD will have a higher, 60-

80 cm sea level rise by 2050.31

Under IPCC medium emission scenario, YRD is

expected to face a 10 to 48cm sea level rise by 2050. 29




Page 40

Zhejiang Province is expected to face sea level rise of 11-12cm and 18-19cm by

2030 and 2050 respectively, relative to the average level in 2000. 32

Table 4.4: Summary of Sea Level Rise Prediction in Zhejiang Province and Yangtze River Delta

Sea Level Rise (SLR) (cm) 2030 2050

Yangtze River Delta 16-34 25-51 60-80 (land subsidence) 10-48 (medium scenario)

Zhejiang Province 11-12 18-19

Though there are variations among different model predictions, the impacts of sea

level rise on Yangtze River Delta have been widely acknowledged.

Submerging of Land

Due to the low elevation of the coastal areas, including Ningbo, large areas will be

underwater if sea level continues to rise by 2050.

Table 4.5: Loss on Relative Sea Level Rise in Yangtze River Delta30

Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) value/mm

300 650

Submerged area/km2 898 27241

Submerged losses/billion RMB 13.0 41.7 Cost for heightening and reinforcing of tide control dykes/billion RMB

0.32 1.65

Tidal flats and wetlands that are rich in living resources and high biodiversity will

experience significant loss. Ningbo has around 0.39 million ha of wetland. If the

same rate of loss occurs, the city will lose around 0.1 million ha of wetland.

Table 4.6: Losses of Tidal Flats and Wetlands Caused by Sea Level Rise by 2050

30

Tidal Flats Wetlands

Area/km2 Rate (%) Area/km

2 Rate (%)

Yangtze River Delta

47.5-49.5 14.98-15.61 30 37

Aggravated Damage by Storm Surge

Studies have estimated that sea level rise would result in an increase in frequency

and intensity of storm surge and will greatly affect the aquaculture, agriculture,

industrial production, residential life, etc.

It is estimated that the sea levels for a 100-year storm event in the vicinity of

Hangzhou Bay would reach a maximum of 5.72m above Yellow Sea Datum

(YSD); a 500-year storm event would yield a maximum of 6.12m above YSD. 33

Due to the increasing likelihood of larger storms returning at more frequent

intervals, coastal areas like Cixi and urban areas in Ningbo with rather low

elevation, would be susceptible to the severer storm surges, resulting in the need

to build sea walls up to 7.0m above YSD. 33




Page 41

Exacerbation of Flood and Water logging Issues

As sea level rises, water levels of tidal rivers will be higher. The subsequent

backwater effect will reduce the drainage capacity of the low-lying areas and

result in flooding issues to vulnerable regions, such as urban centre. The

prediction shows a relative sea level rise of 40cm will reduce 20% capability of

natural drainage in the Yangtze River Delta and its neighbouring cities. 30

As

presented in the previous floods section, the rise of 65cm sea level will enlarge

the frequency of high water in 100-year return by ten times and lead to around

110.1 billion Yuan economic loss in the Delta.

Acceleration of Coastal Erosion

The sea level rise will accelerate coastal area erosion. A 50cm rise of sea level

will result in 36%-50% lost of coastline. 30




Page 42

4.9 Ningbo Hazard Analysis Summary

Overall, Ningbo is expected to undergo the following climate and natural hazards:

Temperature

increase, up to 2.3°C

by 2050, the highest

inland

Increase heat waves

Shortened duration

of rainfall, but

stronger rainfall

intensity

Slight increase of

drought

Increase in number

and intensity of

typhoons

Increase in

frequency of

flooding

Sea level rise- up to

34 cm and 80 cm by

2030 and 2050

respectively for

Yangtze River Delta region

In addition to the direct climate change impacts, there are wider socio-economic impacts for Ningbo:

Hazard Observations Forecasts Impacts34

Temperature

Maximum temperature in July

Minimum temperature in January

Relatively higher temperature in urban area

Temperature rise at 0.9°C every 10 years

Temperature rise under three scenarios and three time periods, maximum 2.3°C by 2050

Higher rise inland, such as Ninghai

Increase energy and water consumption

Increase vector-borne diseases

Water temperatures- affecting aquatic life/algae and fishery production

Precipitation

Maximum rainfall in June

Minimum rainfall in December

No significant change in total rainfall

Variations

Increase risk of flooding

Call for efforts on managing adequate

Figure 4.26: Hazards in Ningbo4




Page 43


Greater rainwater in southwest mountainous areas, such as Ninghai and Fenghua

Constant total rainfall R10 fluctuates

under scenarios Slight

downward trend of R10

Likely intensified rain storms

water supply all year round

Threaten water quality

Food security/agriculture

Increase water-borne disease

Droughts Annual variations Spatial variations Easily affected area-

Xiangshan and Cixi

Likely increase under A1B and A2 scenarios

Maximum CDD- over 70 days

Call for efforts on managing adequate water supply

Threaten water quality

Food security/agriculture

Heat Waves

Increase number of days

Highest temperature record in urban areas

Increase in HWDI

Over 20 HWDI after 2040s

Increase heat related stress and strokes, especially among elderly and vulnerable population

Increase energy and water consumption

Increase vector-borne disease

Tropical Cyclones

Occurrence from May to December

At least one grade 3+ tropical cyclone per year

Strong wind in Xiangshan and heavy induced rainfall in Ninghai, Fenghua and Xiangshan

Genesis from Northwest Pacific

Increase of total number

Decrease of tropical cyclones at wind speed 20-60m/s

Increase of tropical cyclones over 60m/s

Potentially induced urban flooding

Increase storm surge Increase socio-

economic damage Affected port

industry

Floods 0.4-1.4 per year High possibility in

Ninghai, followed by urban areas

Increase of flooding

Increase of flooding frequency

Increase water-borne diseases

Poor water quality risk

Socio-economic damage

Affected biodiversity Increase geological

hazards, like landslides

Sea Level At a 1.8±0.5mm/a Yangtze River Land loss in low




Page 44


Rise globally At a 2.5mm/a rate in

China At a 3.1mm/a rate in

East China Sea At a 3.3mm/a rate in

Zhejiang Province Land subsidence in

eastern coastal area like Cixi and urban region

Delta: 16-34cm rise

by 2030 10-80cm rise

by 2050 Zhejiang Province: 11-12cm rise

by 2030 18-19cm rise

by 2050

elevation (0.1 million ha wetland loss submerged, assumed)

Increased damage due to storm surge

Floods and water logging

Coastal erosion

The hazard assessment has identified various vulnerable areas among the districts:

Districts Hazards Risks

Urban District (including

Three River City District) Urban flood

Land subsidence

Highly likely heat waves

Yuyao Heavy storm

Prone to flash floods and landslides

Cixi Drought

Land subsidence

Sea level rise

Fenghua Heavy storm during tropical

cyclones

Prone to flash floods and landslides

Xiangshan Typhoon

Drought

Ninghai Great Rainfall

Heavy storms during tropical

cyclones

Floods

Landslides

Higher temperature increase




Page 45

5 Ningbo Vulnerability Assessment

5.1 People

5.1.1 Population

Like many Chinese cities, Ningbo‟s population is growing, becoming more urbanized, and aging. Out of the total of 7.3 million, 2 million live in the central urban area, and 5.7 million have registered hukous. Resident populations are predicted to grow to 8.1 million by 2020, reflecting an 11% population growth rate for the decade. Figure 5.1 below estimated the population change for the next two decades based on the City Master Plan 2020. The population would be distributed across the city while mostly would concentrate in the inner suburban in the north and west of the central area.

35 The urbanization rate of 64% in 2010 is

higher than the national average, 36

and is estimated to grow to over 70% in ten years.

37

Figure 5.1: Population Change, 2010-2030Error! Bookmark not defined.

Cixi, Yuyao and Yinzhou Districts in the city center have the highest population. Cixi, in particular, has over 1 million people, accounting for around 18% of the total population.

Ningbo population density is around 583 people per km2. Though the population

in the urban areas is lower than the surrounding, peri-urban regions, the population density in the city centre is high. Haishu and Jiangdong Districts have over 10,000 people per km

2, with no agriculture population. Most of the rural




Page 46

population live in the surrounding areas of Ninghai, Fenghua and Xiangshan with less than 400 people per km

2.

Population Type Number Vulnerability

Total Population 7.3 million Increase affluence and numbers demand greater resource consumption

Ageing and at capacity infrastructure

Less protected rural population, mainly in Xiangshan, Fenghua and Ninghai

Population in 2020 8.1 million

Urbanization Rate 64%

Population Density 583 people per km2

Elderly Population ~1 million Increasing, with less protective resources

Floating Population 3.94 million Growing with limited social services




Page 47

Figure 5.2: Population Density and Agriculture Population Distribution by

Region in Year 2008 4

Ningbo‟s elderly population has reached one million, accounting for 16.3% of the total population (household population), and will exceed 20% of total population (household population) by 2020, and 29% by 2030.

38

While it is hard to track exact figures, and the figures given are likely to be underestimated, it is observed that Ningbo has a sizeable and growing floating




Page 48

population.39

Such population trend is correlated with the city‟s GDP and economic development as migrants are attracted to the job opportunities. They contribute to the continual growth of the city by supporting the lower-skilled construction and services industries.

Ningbo‟s floating population in 2009 was about 3.94 million, representing over half of the total residents in Ningbo. Compared to other major Chinese cities, Ningbo has the highest floating population rate (floating population compared to total residents). Ningbo‟s floating population rate will increase from 55% in 2009 to over 61% by 2020.

Figure 5.3: Floating Population Percentage in Major Chinese

Cities40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

Ningbo

Shanghai

Beijing

Hangzhou

Nanjing

Wuhan

Chongqing

Cities 2009 Floating Population Rate by City




Page 49

5.1.2 Social Services and Assets

Figure 5.4: Social Services and Assets Map

4

Based on the available information, the Social Service and Assets Map locates the major cultural heritage sites, hospitals and healthcare centers, and universities in the City:




Page 50

There are 15 institutions of higher education, mainly distributing around the centre of the city. This correlates with where the urban population are located, and migration patterns of rural youth to relocate to the city.

There are 84 various level hospitals in Ningbo. The general hospitals are in the city center, matching high population density. Specialized hospitals are fewer and located around the city. Community hospitals are located farther away in the peri-urban region, with other heath centres in the surrounding rural areas.

The cultural heritage sites are mainly located in the outskirts of the city, away from transport and other infrastructure networks. Cixi in the north has a large number of cultural sites.

The locations of education and healthcare centres are correlated with the population distribution and needs. The main and larger hospitals and university are located in the city center, easily accessible by the high population density and supported by the extensive transport network.

Meanwhile, the locations of cultural heritage sites are based on historical and social significance rather than purposeful urban design and population. Nonetheless, they face the same difficulty in transport and resource connections as healthcare and education centres in similar locations. The social services and assets that are father away from the city center are less comprehensive and connected than their counterparts in the city center. They are less protected from climate change impacts, and have fewer resources to deal with climate change impacts that occur along the coast and peri-urban region.

5.1.2.1 Education

Education has been emphasized and well developed in Ningbo. In 2008, there were 3,511 schools, broken down by the following:

Table 5.1: Schools in Ningbo48

School Type Number

Kindergarten 1293

Primary School 564

Senior Secondary School 87

Post-Secondary Institution 15

There are also supplementary and technical schools. The total number of student enrolment is over 2.7 million.

48

While the enrolment rate of primary school achieved 100%, its secondary school enrolment rate is less than half. In terms of the higher education enrolment rate, Ningbo is fairly similar with other big cities and higher than the average national level. The total number of college students is about 0.14 million.

48




Page 51

Figure 5.5: Higher Education Enrolment Rate in Cities

40,43,44,45,46,47

Apart from the developed general education, public knowledge and awareness of climate change have been steadily growing, though the depth and transferable concern and action vary. A series of interviews to different groups, such as government officials, healthcare workers, floating population, youth, elderly, etc. in the City show various levels of understanding and action on climate change. Education and training on climate change for all levels from government officials to students to senior citizens remain low, and reflects the general ignorance in the City.

5.1.2.2 Cultural Heritage

According to “The Bluebook of City Cultural Development” (宁波市文物事业发展蓝皮书2010) by Ningbo Culture and Heritage Bureau, Ningbo has 22 national, 34 provincial and 273 municipal historic, cultural relics. There are also three national and two provincial historical and cultural towns, as well as one provincial historical and cultural city. The Social Service and Asset Map cites the following:

320 recorded historical and cultural heritage sites

22 national level heritage sites in 35 locations

24 provincial level heritages sites in 38 locations

264 county level heritage sites in 264 locations

The various relics scattered in the City demonstrate a long history and rich

culture. It also shows the City efforts in protecting and publicizing its historical

tradition and identity. However, protection against climate change is weak.

Districts with the most cultural heritage sites such as Xiangshan, Yuyao, and Cixi

also face higher vulnerability against climate change. With more disperse

population and transport links, it will be harder to protect these sites without

added design measure/ retrofits, emergency plans, or training.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Ningbo

Hangzhou

Nanjing

Wuhan

Chongqing

National

Higher Education Enrolment Rate

Cities

2008 Higher Education Enrolment Rate by

City




Page 52

District Cultural

Heritage Sites

Vulnerability

Xiangshan

>120

Along the coast, threatened by tropical cyclones

and extreme weather events

Yuyao Hilly topography and high precipitation, prone to

heavy storms, flash floods, and landslides

Cixi Low elevation at risk to sea level rise and coastal

flooding

Cultural heritage staff training on climate change is low. In 2009, the municipal

cultural heritage staff attended around 23 trainings on different subjects. However,

none of these trainings are related to climate change or natural hazard.49

Though

the city has enacted Cultural Heritage Protection Ordinance, no clause involves

climate change and its impacts. Much more needs to be done to protect the city‟s

cultural heritage sites against climate change.

5.1.3 Health Care

On average, in 2009, there are 4 beds, 7 health technicians including 3 doctors and

more than 2 nurses per 1000 people in Ningbo. However, the provisions of health

facilities and medical staff are not as high as other major cities, like Beijing,

Hangzhou, Nanjing, etc.

Figure 5.6: Health Care in Different Cities

40,41,42,43,44,45,46

The healthcare disparity is wider within the City:

The total beds per 1000 persons in urban area are almost three times that of the rural areas.

The periphery of the city has almost half the number of health care workers of the urban areas per 1000 persons.

Fenghua, Xiangshan and Ninghai are the least equipped with public health resources.

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ningbo Shanghai Beijing Hangzhou Nanjing Wuhan Chongqing

Hea

lth

Ca

re p

er 1

00

0 C

ap

ita

Cities

2009 Health Care by City

Beds Health Technicians Doctors (including assistants) Nurses




Page 53

Ninghai and Fenghua, with large number of vulnerable agriculture population are prone to floods due to higher rainfall and hilly topography.

Xiangshan as identified previously is vulnerable to tropical cyclones.

Table 5.2: Summary of Ningbo Healthcare Services

District Healthcare Hazard Risks

Beds Per

1000

Persons

Healthcare

Personnel Per

1000 Persons

Urban

District

6.33 10.26 Low elevation with older infrastructure

susceptible to floods,

Higher temperature, heat waves

Yuyao 2.75 5.11 Hilly topography and high precipitation,

prone to heavy storms, flash floods, and

landslides

Cixi 2.60 5.88 Low elevation at risk to sea level rise

and coastal flooding

Fenghua 3.63 4.54 Hilly topography and high precipitation,

prone to floods

Xiangshan 2.45 3.78 Along the coast, threatened by tropical

cyclones and extreme weather events

Ninghai 2.28 4.48 Hilly topography with higher

precipitation, prone to heavy storms,

flash floods, and landslide

Lower healthcare infrastructure was also confirmed through site visits to hospitals

and health care centres, and interviews with healthcare workers. There are not

enough healthcare provisions in the city, especially with its growing and aging

population.

Even the new hospital, expected to be

completed by 2012, will not be adequate.

The 1000 additional beds provided for the

new hospital is still insufficient given the

increasing and aging population, not

withstanding climate change impacts.

Even if the City includes the additional

beds in its bed indicator, it will still lag

behind other cities.50

Education on climate change for hospital staff is low. Interviews with staff show

little training or resources available to deal with climate change. The recent 2008




Page 54

heat wave showed that that staff were unprepared to deal with the influx of

patients and needs. Broader public education on climate change and healthcare is

also low.

Since SARS in 2003, the Ningbo Public Health Bureau has maintained a database

for recording typical disease, like cholera and dengue fever. However, climate

change related diseases, such as asthma rates, heat-strokes or heat-related stress

are not included. Studies and data on climate change and public health are limited.

5.1.4 Vulnerability Summary Analysis

While we can deduce growing public awareness and willingness to address

climate change, the tools and resources available for the people are limited.

Demographic shifts will result in a growing, older, and more transient population

who will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts. As the city continues to

urbanize, the more agrarian, and less dense periphery will have harder access to

resources and less connected infrastructure. The social assets, especially the

cultural heritage sites outside the city centre have less resources and plans to

address climate change.

The public health indicators confirmed the city‟s weakness in addressing

resilience. Health care infrastructure, comparable to other cities is low, even if

accounting for the new hospital plans. There have been little corresponding

programs or policies to educate or provide sufficient resources. Climate change

and its associated impacts are not well understood by cultural heritage staff,

healthcare workers and the public. Research, data, and information collection and

distribution on climate change and public health remain low.

Sector Observation Vulnerability

Healthcare • 4 beds, 7 health

technicians per

1000 people

• Total beds per 1000

persons in urban

area almost 3x of

rural areas

• Fewer healthcare

workers in rural

areas

• No climate related

disease database

• No healthcare

training on

addressing climate

change

• Lower healthcare personnel per capita

• Healthcare facilities concentrated in

city center

• Limited understanding on health

impacts from climate change

• Limited data collection on health

related effects and climate change

• Limited public information on health

impacts and climate change

Public

Knowledge

and

Awareness

• High Commitment, limited general

understanding on climate change

• Limited resources on preparing and

addressing climate change

• Limited public information

• Limited education and training

programs for climate change




Page 55

5.2 Infrastructure

5.2.1 Land Use

According to the land use investigation conducted in 2008, around 70% of land

area in Ningbo is used for agriculture. Construction land only accounts for 15%,

and the remaining 15% is unused or other use land. Of the agricultural land, crops

land accounts for 30%, 53% is forest land and 9% is garden area. 51

Figure 5.7: Ningbo Land use Plan (2008-2020)

4

The map shows built-up areas are mainly in the centre of the region surrounded by

the farmlands and green areas. Extensive developed areas are in Haishu,




Page 56

Jiangdong and Jiangbei Districts. Fenghua, Xiangshan and Ninghai are still not

heavily developed, green areas are largely maintained.

Ningbo has set up a Municipal Land Use Management Information System to

comprehensively manage the land use on spatial and temporal scale. 52

However,

how to manage land use to reduce natural hazard risks, such as flooding is still a

concern. Following the 2020 City Master Plan, there will be an additional 150,000

residents and more than 20 million m2 of built area within 50-year flood zones.

53

5.2.2 Transport

5.2.2.1 Transportation System

To be a modern international port city, Ningbo has developed the Comprehensive

Transport Master Plan 2004-2020. The expanded transportation network will

strengthen Ningbo‟s connection with the rest of the region, including the larger

cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou; secondary cities such as Wenzhou and

Taizhou; and the southern Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces.

Ningbo‟s expanded regional transport links, such as the coastal highways, coastal

railway, Yongjin Expressway, and the Ningbo Golden Railway, have made travels

easier, faster, cheaper, and more convenient. The Cross Sea Bridge over

Hangzhou Bay shortens travelling time between Hangzhou and Shanghai in two

hours. The Hangzhou Bay Bridge connects Ningbo to Shanghai and Hangzhou

with a similar travelling time of 2 hours.

The 1-hour traffic circle within the City and 30-min traffic circle in urban areas

will be aided by four travel networks:

Highways;

Coastal roads;

County/village motorways;

Rail- link to the port and chemical industrial park for goods delivery.

Public transport is increasing as well. The central city owns 3,768 public buses

with 303 operating lines in 2007. Around 75% of the buses are diesel vehicles,

with the rest using gasoline. 54

Six subway lines are being built, with the first one

to be completed in 2015. The lines stretch farther out of the city to the

countryside, aiming for greater rural-urban connections.




Page 57

Figure 5.8: Transportation Network Year 2003 to 2020

4

Replacement value of all roads at potential risk was plotted into the map and

showed in the figure below. The spatial distribution of road network implied that

with widely scattering risk across the whole city, high potential risks lie in the

central core and in the coastal area.




Page 58

Figure 5.9: Replacement Value of All Roads55

5.2.2.2 Private Motor Vehicles

Ningbo‟s transport plans intend to have high levels of motorization. The 2009

Statistical Yearbook indicated a total of 9,572km length of highway in the city.

This will be used to support the 25% increase in cars and a 27% increase in trucks

between 1994 and 2000.56

Figure 5.10: Car Ownership per 100 Capita in Cities

40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47

Currently, there are over 1.37 million motor vehicles operating in the city. The

motor vehicles ownership per 100 capita in Ningbo is higher than the national

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Ningbo

Shanghai

Beijing

Hangzhou

Nanjing

Wuhan

Chongqing

National

Motor Vechicles/100 capita

Cities

2009 Motor Vehicles by City




Page 59

average and close to those cities with the highest motor vehicle ownership like

Beijing and Hangzhou.

However, related traffic air pollution and congestion are becoming concerns.

Whether the planned transportation system is able to cope with the increasing

number of vehicles is another concern. In particular emergency lanes are not

included in the transport network, a challenge for speedy response and recovery.

5.2.3 Water Resources and Wastewater

5.2.3.1 Water Supply

The Ningbo is well known for its – “three river junction” landscape. The central

city area is located at the junction of three main rivers, Yuyaojiang, Yongjiang

and Fenghuajiang. These rivers create the major river network in the northern half

of Ningbo.

Ningbo has established an integrated urban water supply network. It is comprised

of a centralized water supply system from the county/town to rural areas and

decentralized water supply equipped with water purification and disinfection

facilities through pond, containers, etc.57

In 2009, the total water supply to urban

and rural areas reached 0.7 and 1.4 billion m3, respectively. Urban areas has six

water plants with total capacity of 1,870 thousand tonnes per day.

There are six large-size reservoirs, 24 medium-size reservoirs and a series of low

capacity reservoirs in the city with total reservoir capacity of 779 million m3. At

the end of 2009, Ningbo has up to 8.2 billion m3 of water resources including 0.2

million m3 underground water. The storage ratio of reservoirs is 9.5%, slightly

lower than the international standard of 10%. 58

But as indicated in Figure 5.11, reservoirs are not evenly distributed, the majority

of which are located in the south of the City, like Ninghai and Xiangshan, with a

few in Cixi. Linking with the hazard assessment, it is known more waterworks are

still needed in Ningbo:

Ninghai receives the largest amount of annual rainfall and maintains high reservoir storage, but still experiences frequent floods. More storage is needed to reserve the superfluous rainwater;

Cixi has the least rainfall annually but in the meanwhile has the least water storage. Greater water storage and other measures are needed to meet its agricultural and industry demands.




Page 60

Figure 5.11: Power and Water Facilities 4




Page 61

Figure 5.12: 2009 Ningbo Water

Uses 48

5.2.3.2 Water Demand

Irrigation, industry and household are

the main water consumers in Ningbo,

accounting for 35%, 22% and 21%

respectively. In 2009, agriculture

consumed 0.7 billion m3 volume of

water for irrigation and 0.5 billion m3

volume of water were used in industry.

The daily tap water consumption rate

per capita in urban area was 221 litres

and 116 litres in rural area. 48

As seen

in Figure 5.13, Ningbo‟s water

consumption per capita is lower than major cities, like Shanghai and Wuhan but

higher than Hong Kong and Singapore.

Figure 5.13: Water Consumption in Different Cities

59,60

The rapid growth of population in Ningbo will result in a growing demand on the

water resources in the City. The Integrated Water Resources Plan predicts that the

City will need 3.1 billion m3 total water in 2020 for domestic, agiruclutral,

industrial and ecological development and the demand will increase to 3.2 billion

m3 in 2030.

The city master plan aims to enhance water supply to 3.0 million ton/day by 2020.

For rural areas, a regulation was recently approved on managing water supply,

and provides rural areas with full water coverage. 61,62

Four projects are planned to

offer Ningbo a total of 0.8 billion m3/year of additional water from the outer city.

However, it is still predicted that with the growing population and economic

development, the city will suffer about 32 million m3 water shortage in 2030 if

drought occurs.57

5.2.3.3 Drainage and Wastewater Treatment

There are now 12 wastewater treatment plants serving for the developed areas of

the city with over 570 thousand t/day treatment capacity. Four plants are located

0 100 200 300

Ningbo

Shanghai

Chengdu

Wuhan

Singapore

Hong Kong

Litres Per Capita Per Day

CitiesWater Consumption per Capita by City

35%

22%

21%

9%

13%

2009 Water Use

Irrigation

Industry

Household

Environment

Others




Page 62

in Beilun District while three are in Zhenhai. The city is connected with these

treatment plants through pumping houses and pipelines networks.

Despite the unavailability of the capacity and spatial layouts of the pipelines, data

manifest:

Among the total 3240km pipelines, around 214km is shared by both drainage and sewage purposes, suffering overcapacity during heavy storm. In the combined pipes, Haishu District accounts for 47%.

Under the total 49 pumping stations, 27 stations have worked for more than 15 years, some capacity cannot meet the demand and some are aging.

The weak infrastructure attribute to urban flooding, identified in hazard

assessment. Inappropriate management practices during construction and drainage

congestion have also been identified as likely to increase surface runoff and cause

urban flooding. 63

In 2009, the wastewater treatment rate was 81% in urban area. Compared to other

cities, waste water treatment rate in urban areas of Ningbo is at the intermediate

level, higher than cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou but lower than cities like

Chongqing.

Figure 5.14: Wastewater Treatment Rates in Different Cities

40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47

By 2020, the total wastewater produced in central areas will increase to

1.81million t/d. To maintain a high treatment rate, the city plans to raise the

treatment capacity to 1.85million t/d so as to adopt all the generated wastewater.

5.2.4 Solid Waste

Ningbo City produced 1.19 million tons of total Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in

2009. The municipal solid waste treatment rate increased from 75% in 2008 to

100% in 2009.48

Four municipal waste treatment facilities have been set up in the urban area and

the total processing capacity is about 2,900 ton/day. For the Fenglin and Zhenhai

domestic waste incineration power plants, the capacity is about 1,000 and 600

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Ningbo

Shanghai

Beijing

Hangzhou

Nanjing

Wuhan

Chongqing

Waste Water Treatment Rate

Cities

2009 Wastewater Treatment Rate by City




Page 63

ton/day respectively. For the Daao landfill in Fenglin and Yemaoao landfill in

Yinzhou, the treatment capacity is about 500 and 800ton/day respectively.

Currently much of Ningbo‟s residential waste is not separated prior to being

incinerated or disposed of at a landfill, though the City‟s Five Year Plan is

pushing for this.64

Both the incineration plant and landfills are able to meet the

basic waste treatment demand. Domestic refuse in rural area is disposed in the

landfills situated in respective administrative areas.65

The landfill operation has

been evaluated by the Ministry of Housing and Urban and Rural Development as

Class I due to good performance.

Three landfills, one medical waste treatment plant, and a number of solid waste

transfer stations are also being planned. However, with the steady growth in

Ningbo MSW, inadequate processing capacity is becoming a severe problem.

According to the forecast from ―Ningbo 12th

Five-Year Waste Disposal Facility

Construction Plan, the central city will generate 1.443 million tons of waste per

year, with an expected shortage of processing capacity of 1000 ton/day by 2015.

5.2.5 Energy

Power plant location, types and electricity grid were listed as confidential

information by Ningbo Power Company and were not provided. The power

station were found through the internet and marked into GIS layer based on SPOT

satellite image. These identified plants mainly distribute outside the core urban

areas and most of them are dependent on carbon fuels.

Table 5.3: Major Identified Ningbo Power Plants

Major Power Plants Location Energy

Capacit

y

(million

kW)

Zhenhai Zhenhai Thermal 1.05

Beilun Beilun Thermal 5.00

Guohua Ninghai Ninghai Thermal 4.40

Datang Wusha Shan Xiangshan Thermal 47.90

Yuyao Gas-Fired Yuyao Gas-Fired 0.80

Yinglong Shan Natural Gas Yinzhou Natural Gas 2.80

Fenglin Waste Incineration Beilun Waste

Incineration 0.02

Zhenhai Waste Incineration Zhenhai Waste

Incineration 0.02

LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)

Power Plant (under construction) Beilun LNG 1.56

Total 63.56




Page 64

Figure 5.11 showed the distribution of power stations which are mainly scattered

away from the city central area and lie along the coastline. However, the hazard

assessment has pointed that coastal areas might be threatened by strong wind

during tropical cyclones, storm surges as well as sea level rise. Securing energy

might therefore be taken into account in reducing the City‟s vulernability.

Detailed to energy mix in Ningbo, electricity, coal and petroleum (diesel oil,

gasoline, fuel oil, kerosene, LPG) are the

dominants, accounting for nearly 95% of

the energy used. For electricity, majority of

it comes from coal as a primary energy.

Likewise, of all types of energy for end-

use, electricity was mainly generated from

coal, resulting in the highest carbon

emission coefficient among all energy

sources.

In terms of energy use, Ningbo belongs

to the better-off and high consumption

cities like Shanghai, Beijing and

Guangzhou. The energy per capita is

about 140GJ per capita, 2.3 times of national average.

By using the average energy intensity at the Zhejiang province to which Ningbo

belongs as a proxy, the energy consumption and the energy intensity of Ningbo

are estimated. Figures 5.16-5.17 illustrated the results of Ningbo and other key

Chinese cities.

Energy consumption in Ningbo has increased by over 6.2 times from 1990 to 2007, in contrast to 2.5 times for Beijing and 3.2 times for Shanghai in the same period.

Figure 5.16: Total Energy Consumption in Different Cities

67,68,69,70

Since 1990s, the energy per capita of Ningbo has grown much faster than the national average and followed the increasing trajectories of other major cities.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

To

tal e

ner

gy

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (P

J)

Year

Total Energy Consumption in Different Cities

Beijing Shanghai Chongqing Ningbo

Figure 5.15: Energy Consumption

by Fuel 66

36%

3%

43%

16%

2%

2007 Ningbo Energy Consumption by Fuel

Electricity

Coke

Petroleum

Coal

Heat




Page 65

In 2007, the figure reached closed to 140 GJ per capita, which is comparable to the level in Beijing.

Figure 5.17: Energy Uses per Capita in Different Cities

67,68,69,70

The use of electricity has increased drastically in Ningbo.

The amount of electricity use has surged by over 12 times in the past two decades from about 3,000 GWh in 1990 to more than 40,000 GWh in 2009.

The industrial sector is the biggest consumer followed by the tertiary (mainly transport and communication) and residential consumption sector. Since 1990s, the industrial sector accounted for in average 75% the electricity use in Ningbo.

Figure 5.18: Total Electricity Use of Ningbo

67

In Ningbo industrial output growth is the most important driving force for energy

use and carbon emission increase in the city. The top three highest energy-

consumption industries include petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel

0

50

100

150

200

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

En

erg

y p

er c

ap

ita

(G

J/P

op

ula

tio

n)

Year

Energy Use per Capita in Different Cities

Beijing Shanghai Chongqing Ningbo National

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1990 1995 2000 2005

To

tal

Ele

ctri

city

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (G

Wh

)

Year

Ningbo Total Electricty Use

Industry Tertiary Residential Construction Agriculture




Page 66

processing, production and supply of electric and thermal power, ferrous metal

smelting and pressing processing industry, amount to about 91% of total energy

consumption from heavy industry, while their output share is only about 22%

(refer to Table 5.4). Coal contributes to 46% of energy supplied to the industrial

sector whereas crude oil amounts to 33%. The overall industrial sector heavily

relies on high carbon intensive fossil fuels.

Table 5.4: Top Three Energy-Consumed Heavy Industries in 2009 67

Industry Energy Consumption

(Mtce) / Percentage of

Overall

Gross Industrial Output

Value (million RMB) /

Percentage of Overall

petroleum processing,

coking and nuclear fuel

processing

38.4 (54.2%) 8.6 (10.4%)

production and supply of

electric and thermal power 22.4 (31.6%) 6.0 (7.3%)

ferrous metal smelting and

pressing processing

industry

3.6 (5%) 3.6 (4.4%)

All industrial sectors 70.9 82.7


Urbanization, increasing population, economic growth and other driving forces

increase pressures on the City‟s infrastructure and its ability to meet the growing

needs. Initial estimates reveal that replacement values for all buildings and

infrastructure at risks within Ningbo is over 40 billion USD, and 23 billion USD

respectively.71

Most notably, the City needs to assure there is sufficient water and

energy resources, proper waste management, accessible and convenient transport

links, etc. The Ningbo Master Plan and supporting infrastructure plans aim for a

stronger and more connected city.

However, much more can be done to strengthen the City‟s services in a more

sustainable way. Its transportation system could be improved by reducing the

private car ownership, increasing public and green transport and eventually

relieving traffic congestion and air pollution. Its aging drainage system could be

updated to increase the capacity and reduce the risks of urban flooding. Its sole

method of dealing with waste through incineration could be diversified and

include co-benefits such as energy use. Vulnerability also lies in Ningbo‟s water

in terms of the storage, demand, consumption and treatment which will be

coherently discussed in later Environment section.

While the City is working on improving its infrastructure to address growing

demand in various aspects, little has been done with regard to climate change. The

City‟s master plans, land use plans, and other infrastructure plans need to take

climate change impacts into account, especially for new infrastructure. Strategies

need to be formulated to retrofit and replace poor quality infrastructure and

buildings in both the city and rural areas.




Page 67

Given the high energy consumption and increasing growing energy per capita

consumption, maintaining energy security in Ningbo is becoming a challenge.

Extensive efforts are needed for the City to maximize the energy efficiency and

diversity which could not only reduce the city vulnerability but also mitigate

climate change effects in the future.


Transport

and Planning

• Ninghai needs more

rainwater storage to

combat floods

• Cixi with less rainfall has

low water storage

• The motor vehicles

ownership per 100 capita

in Ningbo is higher than

the national average

• Increasing traffic

congestion

• Old existing infrastructure

meeting growing population

and economic demands and

climate change

• Existing infrastructure

located in vulnerable areas

• Limited emergency access in

transport network

Water,

Wastewater

and Waste

Management

• Around 214km of pipes

are shared by both

drainage and sewage

• 27 stations have worked

for more than 15 years

• By 2020, the wastewater

in central areas will

increase to 1.81million t/d

• The central city will

generate 1.443 million

tons of waste by 2015

• Wastes are either

incinerated or land filled.

• Older and insufficient

capacity of drainage system

• Increase waste disposal and

wastewater

• Traditional treatment of

municipal solid wastes

Energy

• Extensive carbon fuel

• Energy consumption has

increased by over 6.2

times from 1990 to 2007

• Since 1990s, the energy

per capita has grown much

faster than the national

average

• Heavy industry accounts

for 91% of total energy

• Increasing total energy

consumption

• Growing energy per capita

consumption

• Large industrial sector use of

energy

• Limited and carbon-

intensive energy sources

• Risk of power shortage

• Energy infrastructure located




Page 68


consumption

• Power stations along the

coastline might be

affected by tropical

cyclones, sea level rise

and storm surges, etc.

in vulnerable areas, such as

the coast

• Energy efficiency for port,

airport, university buildings,

and facilities and

retrofitting/renovating old

building, etc.




Page 69

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Ningbo

Shanghai

Beijing

Hangzhou

Nanjing

Wuhan

Chongqing

National

GDP/Capita (USD)

Cities 2009 GDP/Capita (USD) by City

5.3 Economy

5.3.1 GDP

In 2009, the GDP in Ningbo was 421 billion Yuan (about 62 billion USD) with an

8.6% continuous increase rate compared to the year before, contributing to 18.5%

of the whole Zhejiang Province. The per capita GDP was 73,998 Yuan (10,833

USD), much higher than the national level and slightly behind Shanghai.

Figure 5.19: GDP per Capita in Different Cities 40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47

Urban areas contributed the highest GDP in 2008 with over 200 billion Yuan,

followed by Yinzhou and Cixi, ranging from 50 to 100 billion Yuan.

5.3.2 Key Industries

Ningbo has diversified its economy and moved onto secondary and tertiary

industries. Among the secondary industries in Ningbo, there are hundreds of large

intensive business with five leading sub-sectors, namely petro-chemical, energy,

iron and steel, paper making and ship building. These leading sub-sectors‟ output

has contributed to more than one quarter of total industrial output of the City. 72

To support further development, Ningbo has established four national scale

development zones, one high-tech zone, and 10 provincial and municipal level

development zones. 73

Table 5.5: Features of Key Industry in Ningbo

Key Industry Economic Weight Main

Location

Primary (agriculture,

fishery, forestry, etc)

5% of total GDP, a 4.1% rise

compared to year 2008.

Agriculture is the main contributor

to total gross output value in the

north periphery of the city.

Xiangshang




Page 70

Key Industry Economic Weight Main

Location

Secondary 53% of total GDP Sub-urban

areas such as

Yuyao, Cixi

and Yinzhou

Tertiary (retail, tourism,

commercial, real estate,

transportation and other

services)

42% of total GDP, 2.3% higher

than year 2008. The retail area

dominated the tertiary industry,

with 23%.

Urban Areas

Despite the vibrant economy, the knowledge of climate change and its impacts are

yet limited within the respective industry. Very few plans and actions against

climate change have been incorporated in to the private sectors. Particularly, the

majority of the secondary industries are heavy industry and energy-consuming. To

reduce their emissions and mitigate the impacts to climate change, incentives are

required for these greenhouse gas contributors.

5.3.2.1 Agriculture and Food

Food security is an important issue in

China, and maintaining high levels of self-

sufficiency has been a long concern by the

central government. Similarly, Ningbo has

also sought to increase its food security.

The City Master plan (2004-2020) aims to

increase its vegetation area. The city plans

to have more than 66,700 m2 of vegetable

plots near the city. By the end of year

2020, the base will be around 4,000 ha, with a per capita base of 16.7 square

meters. This figure conservatively follows Zhejiang Province‟s Vegetable plot

Regulation, and is lower than Nanjing and Wuhan at 20 and 26.7 m2 per capita

respectively. 74,75

However, Ningbo is still very dependent on other areas for its food. In 2007, out

of the total 3.28 million tons crops, only 22% was produced locally, more than

75% were purchased from other Chinese cities and 2.5% were imported. The total

meat, eggs and milk production in 2009 was 0.18 million, 0.1 million and 19.4

thousand tonnes respectively with self-sufficiency rates of 45%, 60% and 25%.76

The low food self-sufficiency rate is not isolated to Ningbo and reflects China‟s

greater urbanization and mobilization of population. There is decreasing amount

of rural land and number of people willing to work on agriculture. In Ningbo, the

number of farmers have decreased from 0.72 million in 2003 to 0.49 million in

2009, a 32% reduction. Similarly for aquaculture, the City is losing fishermen

from 70.7 thousand people in 2005 to 63.6 thousand people in 2009, and one of

the reasons might come from the polluted waters (shown in the Environment

subsection).




Page 71

5.3.2.2 Port and Aquaculture

Ningbo has 9,758 km2 of marine area, including 531 islands, and 1,562 km of

coastline (788 km of mainland coastline and 774 km of island coastline). With

comparative advantages like ideal geographic location, good weather, deepwater,

developed port functions, etc. the Port now has being an important industry of the

City. (Refer to Appendix A for details)

Ningbo has eight port areas

including Yongjiang, Beilun,

Zhenhai, Daxie, Chuanshan,

Meishan, Xiangshan and Shipu. At

present, with provision of modern,

comprehensive and multi-

functional facilities, Ningbo Port

in 2009 has achieved 38,384

myriad ton in cargo throughput

and was rated the second largest

cargo port in China and ranked the

fourth all over the world.

Port development has always being a focus in the city‟s master plan. In the

coming 12th

Five Year Plan, the city plans to continuously accelerate the

construction of an unparalleled international port.

Though the development plan for port is ambitious, the programme and plan

against extreme events and climate change are limited as the only plan available

now is for typhoons. Preparedness on the changing climate, sea level rise and its

potential risks has not been taken into account. Worse is the study of the actual

impacts are restricted by the missing monitoring data of sea level in Ningbo. The

vulnerability of the Port in light of climate change might be a threat to its

economy.

In addition to the port development, Ningbo‟s geological location and ample

water resources have endowed the city with remarkable fish farms in both sea and

shallow water. In 2009, the total area for aquaculture is around 630 km2, 57.4% of

which are for sea water aquaculture. The fishery industry generated about 9.3

billion Yuan (1.4 billion USD).77

According to the Aquaculture Plan in 2007, northern area like Cixi plan to mainly

develop fishery while southern coastal areas like Xiangshan, Fenghua and

Ninghai will focus on cultivating crab and crustaceans. Both are promoting the

seaweed processing industry, with plans to expand seaweed culture around coastal

areas in Xiangshan.

Ningbo plans to set up processing parks for aquatic products in Xiangshan, Cixi

and Beilun. With the successful connection of Houzhou Bay Bridge, the

processing park in Cixi is now able to export the aquatic products to Shanghai.

Naturally, most of the aquaculture and fish species is located along the coast of

Ningbo. However, this area is also more polluted and prone to sea level rise,




Page 72

coastal flooding and typhoons. Warmer temperatures will also affect water

temperatures, increasing algae, and affect water species.

5.3.2.3 Tourism

Ningbo has many tourism attractions that contribute to the tertiary industry. Four

national forest parks have been established in Ningbo. Dongqian Lake and

Shanglin Lake are also hot spots of tourism. In 2009, the city received 53.1 billion

Yuan (7.8 billion USD) in tourism revenue, an increase of 17.8% from year

before. Inbound international tourists rose 5.7% to reach 80 million and

corresponding income rose 3.8%, generating 3.3 billion Yuan (490 million USD).

Inbound domestic tourists numbers and revenue increased 14% and 20%

respectively, totalling 50 billion Yuan (7.28 billion USD) for the city.40

The city has made progress on the improvement and development of tourism,

particularly ecotourism which brings considerable positive effects to economy,

environment and public awareness of environmental protection. For example, the

World Bank GEF Ningbo/Cixi Wetland Park project started construction in 2008.

One of its objectives is to link pollution reduction with environmental education,

wetland conservation and eco-tourism. The study estimates that the wetland will

create around 200,000 potential visitors. 78

However, without consideration of climate change impacts, tourism, particularly

wetlands will be affected by the continuing sea level rise and other extreme

weather events.

5.3.3 Insurance

Similarly like the other Chinese cities, Ningbo‟s insurance system includes social

and commercial insurance. Pension, medical, unemployment, work-related injury

and maternity insurance are the five main categories of social insurances targeting

urban workers in China. To further improve the social medical insurance, China

has established urban residents‟ medical insurance in 1998. By the end of 2010,

more than 3.5 million urban residents and workers in Ningbo have general

medical insurance. This is a 91% participating rate, slightly lower than Beijing

(93%) and Wuhan (95.6%).

In contrast with the mandatory social insurance, the commercial insurance is a

voluntary contract between the insurer and the private insurance companies in

China, and is driven by the market profit. Accordingly to the Ningbo Insurance

Regulatory Bureau that there are a variety of insurances that provide safeguards to

properties, life, and assets from natural disasters. Their compensation schemes

vary with the type of insurance, and depend on the economic capacity of the

buyers. By the end of 2009, there are 44 insurance company branches in Ningbo.

The total premium all year around was 0.53 million Yuan in the City.

However, detailed information on these insurances, like the insured population

and the specific premiums is not clear. A new insurance program targets six

leading natural hazards – earthquake, landslide, flood, tsunami, debris flow, and




Page 73

typhoon was first launched in the city in 2008. However, detailed information

such as participating rate and premium are still unknown.79

5.3.4 Rural Insurance

In 2009, the City had around 3.3 million farmers participate in rural cooperative

medical programme, with a rate of 96.7%, slightly lower than Shanghai at 99%. 80,81,82

However, according to the provisions, only a certain percent of medical

expenses could be reimbursed, limiting the protections.

Additionally, two pilot insurance policies- agriculture and housing- have been

developed to protect rural livelihoods against natural disasters. It has been

launched in several provinces of China, including Zhejiang Province in 2006.

Agricultural insurance covers 17 specific crops and livestock, such as rice, wheat,

cows, etc. It aims to reduce the impacts from natural disasters on agriculture and

protect rural assets. In 2009, a total of 46.2 thousand farmers purchased insurance

in Ningbo. 258.9 million Yuan (37.9 million USD) worth of compensation was

distributed to the affected 6,454 farmers that year.

Rural housing insurance targets homes affected by natural disasters. In 2009, 1.38

million residents bought the insurance, representing around 99.49% of

households. A total of 8.71 million Yuan worth of compensation was given to

2,720 collapsed houses that year.83




Page 74


In general, Ningbo‟s economy is relatively strong. The City contributes greatly to

Zhejiang Province‟s economy, and has a relatively higher GDP/capita than other

Chinese cities and the national average. Its economy is diversifying and moving

upscale into higher skilled, knowledge intensive industries.

However, like other Chinese cities, there is a growing urban-rural gap in income.

Such income disparity is partly related to the growing urbanization rates and

floating migrant population. Much more can be done to address this gap.

Insurance protections in healthcare and assets are still relatively new and

dispersed. Climate change has not been taken into account yet.

Port, the city‟s economic pillar, (it was specifically discussed in the Appendix A)

will be threatened by climate change impacts and natural disasters, such as sea

level rise, storm surges, coastal flooding, etc. But currently its measures still

remain typhoon focused. When natural disasters are to be more violent, being a

small portion of Ningbo‟s economy, agriculture and food security would become

a concern. The vulnerable fishery and aquaculture in coastal areas, as well as

tourism would also be susceptible to sea level rise, storm surges and other natural

disasters.

There is very little on businesses or private sector involvement in climate change

preparations and plans. It is unknown to what extent they consider climate change

in their decision-makings or financial planning. It is also uncertain that if the

government has involved the private sector in its plans and policies related to

climate change.


Industry

• Limited insurance coverage of agriculture and housing against disasters in rural area

• Limited private insurance against climate change or natural disasters

• Agriculture is not equipped with adequate water storage like Cixi, Yuyao

• Aquaculture has not prepared for changing climate

• Tourism has been highlighted but without consideration of climate change

• Limited knowledge of climate risks by private sector

• Lack of inclusion in private sector‟s investment decision-making or plans

• Limited insurance for urban and rural residents

• Port remains typhoon focused

• Food security, fishery and aquaculture, as well as tourism threaten from climate risk

Incentives • No incentive to the private sector to mitigate emissions, particular GHGs

• No incentives to the private sectors to contribute to urban resilience




Page 75

5.4 Environment

5.4.1 Air Quality

Ningbo has established comprehensive environmental monitoring systems to

capture the environmental parameters all over the city. There are 25 air quality

monitoring stations that automatically provide air quality information in real time.

In 2009, Ningbo suffered 37 air pollution days, 3 days fewer than 2008. The rate

of good or above average air quality days reached 89.9%. However, the acid rain

with frequency of 93% to 100% in all six administrative regions is still an issue.

The contribution of NOx which commonly arises from industrial and traffic

emissions, worsens the acidity of rains.

Figure 5.20: Air and Water Monitoring Stations

4




Page 76

Ningbo‟s urbanization, industrial activities and built environment are the major

factors of producing and trapping a number of air pollutants, resulting in the

increase of haze. Since 1997, the number of haze days has increased rapidly.

Figure 5.21: Annual Change of the Number of Days with Haze

3Error!

Bookmark not defined.

5.4.2 Water Quality

80 water quality monitoring stations are set up at different sections of the

Ningbo‟s water bodies to reflect the surface water quality. In China, surface water

quality is divided into five categories in accordance with its environmental

function and protection objectives. They were detailed in Table 5.6 below.

Table 5.6: Current Water Quality in Ningbo

Level Environmental Function & Protection Objectives 84

Lake River

I Water in Water sources and national nature protection

areas

II Water in centralized drinking water source, national first-

class protection zones, etc. 70%

III Centralized drinking water source, national second-class

protection zones, etc. 22%

IV Industrial water Mostly

V Agricultural water and general water landscaping

While lakes are in relatively good condition with 70% at Class II level and 22% at

Class III level, the surface water quality of Ningbo, especially the rivers is poor,

mainly at Class V to IV levels.

By 2009, almost half of Ningbo‟s coastal waters were polluted, with seawater

close to the land more polluted than the outer, open seawater. Yongjiang Estuary

and Hangzhou Bay are two of the most seriously polluted areas in Ningbo. Main

pollutants are inorganic nitrogen and active phosphate.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Year

Haze Days




Page 77

5.4.3 Green Space

Public green space and forest remain important for the city. Over half of the city is

covered by mountains, most of which is located in the southwest area that are rich

in fertile soil and suitable for forest. 85

The City puts more than 0.2 billion Yuan (29.3 million USD) in forest

development annually. Four national forest parks have been established, as well as

a number of provincial and city forest parks. The city currently maintains 12

million m3 of forest growing stocks.

86 Compared to other cities, Ningbo has done

well in forest coverage, with 50% coverage rate.

Figure 5.22: 2009 Forest Coverage in Different Cities

40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47

The green coverage rate in developed area and per capita public green area

reached 37.3% and 10.1 m2 respectively in 2009. For per capita green space,

Ningbo has a goal of reaching 12 m2 by 2015, and 15 m

2 by 2020.

87

Figure 5.23: Green Space in Ningbo Urban Area (2008-2020)

88

However, Ningbo has less green space per capita than most other major Chinese

cities. It is more than the national average, but does not stand out among the seven

major surveyed cities.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Ningbo

Shanghai

Beijing

Hangzhou

Nanjing

Wuhan

Chongqing

National

Forest Coverage

Cities

2009 Forest Coverage




Page 78

Figure 5.24: 2009 Public Green Space per Capita in Different Cities 40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47


It is observed that investment in the environment started bringing fiscal benefits to

the city. Ningbo‟s environment provides 15 billion Yuan worth of ecological

benefits.89

Its new wetlands will have an ecotourism strategy; and its seas provide

food, and other valuable resources. However, the environmental-economic

connection remains weak; when the economy is considered, the environment

usually suffers. Further, the link between the environment and climate change is

weaker. The poor environment, such as air quality can be exacerbated during a

heat wave, increasing health incidences. Similarly, a strong environment can

lessen the climate change vulnerabilities, such as wetlands in filtering water and

reducing flooding. While there are some positive aspects in Ningbo‟s efforts to

protect the environment, greater efforts need to be made in light of rapid

economic development, climate change impacts, environmental degradation, and

population pressures.

Its water quality could be improved, especially those rivers flowing through the

major areas of the city and formulating the city landscape. Wastewater treatment

rate could be further enhanced to better the pollution. The uneven water

distribution and relatively low water storage could be improved on account of

increasing water demand, intensified droughts and floods. Drainage system should

be updated to reduce the risks of urban flooding. Given the sea level continues to

rise, works to combat seawater intrusion might be considered in the future.

Green space, an effective and cost-friendly strategy to reduce urban heat island

effect; manage and filter water and floods; improve air quality; and enhance

biodiversity, is not plentiful. Ningbo has less public green space per capita than

other major Chinese cities, and its future targets are lacking in comparison.

More importantly, economic and population growth are placing a larger strain

onto the environment. Increasing vehicle ownership and use are worsening the

city‟s air quality. Its port and economic activity are polluting the coastal waters

and its corresponding marine species.

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Ningbo

Shanghai

Beijing

Hangzhou

Nanjing

Wuhan

Chongqing

National

Public Green Space Per Capita (sq.m)

Cities

2009 Public Green Space Per Capita by City




Page 79


Environmental Quality

• Per capita public green area is 10.1 m

2

• Since 1997, the number of haze days has increased rapidly, up to 50 days

• NOx and acid rain issues

• Low green space per capita

• Increasing haze days

Water Quality and Water Resources

• The quality of river is mainly at Class V to IV levels

• Yongjiang Estuary and Hangzhou Bay are heavily polluted

• Lake quality- 70% at Class II level and 22% at Class III level

• Poor river quality • Poor coastal water

quality • Urban

flooding/water logging

• Coastal flooding




Page 80

5.5 Government

5.5.1 Structure and Leadership

As introduced, Ningbo currently has six urban districts, including Haishu,

Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai, Beilun, and Yinzhou, three county-level cities,

comprising Yuyao, Cixi and Fenghua, and two counties, including Xiangshan and

Ninghai. Ninghai is the largest area, composing much of the southwest region,

while the smallest area is the Haishu district in the upper center which is the

centre of the city. There are a total of 78 towns, 11 townships, and 63 sub-district

offices.

Table 5.7: Ningbo Administrative Units

Region Town Township Sub-district

Offices

Land Area (km2)

Haishu - - 8 29

Jiangdong - - 8 34

Jiangbei 1 - 7 208

Beilun 2 1 7 599

Zhenhai 2 - 4 246

Yinzhou 17 1 6 1346

Urban Area 22 2 40 2463

Yuyao 14 1 6 1501

Cixi 15 - 5 1361

Fenghua 6 - 5 1268

Xiangshan 10 5 3 1382

Ninghai 11 3 4 1843

County 56 9 23 7354

Total 78 11 63 9817

Ningbo is under the leadership of Mayor Mr. Qi Liu. The mayor‟s leadership team

is comprised of a head that are responsible for the general works of the city and

vice heads that lead specified regional divisions. Within the leadership team, there

are eight members that take respective responsibilities on different municipal

divisions. The central departments at the city level have further branches in

accordance with the six districts, three county-level cities and two counties. These

branches are responsible for respective regional affairs of the government. At the

district and county levels, the leadership structures are similar. Ningbo is

supported by more than 40 government departments, each with assigned

responsibilities of operation and implementation.




Page 81

5.5.2 12th

Five Year Plan

Ningbo government has prepared the 12th

Five Year Plan (2011-2015), which has

three main restructuring points:

Economic- emphasize the development of the tertiary sector, scientific innovation, and creative industries. Continue its successful port development.

Social- promotes equity in public services, improve infrastructure in villages, and develop new towns.

Government- improves the quality and availability of public services, and emphasize rule of law and responsible government.

In integrating the three goals, Ningbo aims to develop four main areas:

urbanization, industrial agglomeration, strategic projects, and large-scale

enterprises.

Table 5.8: Main Targets in 12th

Five Year Plan (2011-2015) 90

Item

s

Targets Value

1 GDP increase per year 10%

2 Percentage of industry to total GDP ratio 3.5:46.5:50

3 Urbanization rate 70%

4 Urban average income increase and rural average

income increase

10%

and10.5%

5 Ratio of urban and rural income 2.16:191

A series of large-scale strategic projects have been planned, covering

infrastructure, environment, and other aspects. Of the total 660 billion (96.6

billion USD) project investment, 68% (450 billion Yuan, 65.9 billion USD) will

be invested during 12th

Five Year. 90

Details of these strategic projects are

summarized in the following table:

Table 5.9: Key Large-Scale Strategic Projects in 12th

Five Year Plan 90

Sector Project

Type Main Elements

Total

investme

nt

Investme

nt in 12th

Five-

Year

(0.1 billion Yuan)

People Livelihood

- Expansion of cultural

squares and community

centers

- Improvement of hospital

facilities

- Expansion of

500 300




Page 82

Sector Project

Type Main Elements

Total

investme

nt

Investme

nt in 12th

Five-

Year

(0.1 billion Yuan)

universities and

institutions

Infrastruct

ure

Infrastructur

e

- Information

transmission network

- Sewage treatment plants

and water treatment

parks

500 300

Port and

transportatio

n

- Development of

expressway network

- Port projects

2000 1200

Agricultural

and water

conservancy

- Water catchment

projects

- River regulation projects

200 100

Economy

Service

improvemen

t

- Quality improvement of

financial centre and

commercial blocks

- Service expansion of

resorts and tourist

attractions

1000 600

Advanced

manufacturi

ng

- Expansion of steel

industry

- Desalination project

2000 1800

Environme

nt

Ecology and

environment

- Pollution control and

conservation projects

- Coastal shelter-belts

- Circular economy

program

400 200




Page 83

Figure 5.25: Ningbo Government Leadership

Leadership TeamMayor

Mr. QI Liu

Vice Executive Mayor

Mr. Yong Wang

Vice Mayor Ms. Hongyi Yu

Vice MayorMr. Yijun Chen

Vice MayorMr. Mingfu Xu

Mayor Assistant Mr. Jingguo Lin

Vice MayorMr. Yuechong

Cheng

Vice Mayor Mr. Renzhou

Wang

Assistant Mayor

Mr. Limin Su

Government Departments

Note: The highlighted bureaus in green are those constitute the climate change taskforce

Wireless Administration

Bureau

Civil Affairs Bureau (NCAB)

National Tax Administration

Human Resources

Bureau

Labor and Social Securities

Bureau

Judiciary Bureau

Financial Bureau (NFB)

Quarantine Office

Land Resources Bureau (NLRB)

Construction Bureau (NCB)

Transportation Bureau (NTB)

Forestry Bureau Water

Resources Bureau (NWRB)

Information Industry Bureau

Agriculture Bureau

Price Bureau

Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation

Bureau

Culture BureauUrban

Management Bureau (NUMB)

Supervision Bureau

Statistics Bureau

Public Health Bureau

Family Planning Commission

Audit Bureau

Environmental Protection

Bureau (NEPB)

Broadcast, Film and TV Bureau

News and Press Bureau

Tourism Bureau Sports Bureau

Industrial and Commercial

Administrative Management Bureau

Quality and Technology Supervision

Bureau

Prison Administration

Bureau

Meteorology Bureau (NMB)

People's Government

Foreign Affairs Office

Marine and Fishery Bureau

(NMFB)Grain Bureau

People's Government

Office

Development and Reform Commission

(NDRC)

Planning Bureau (NPB)

Education Bureau

Public Security Bureau

Economic and Trade

Commission

Local Tax Administration

Sci-tech Bureau

…





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5.5.3 Disaster Risk Management

The hazard assessment has noted the City has a different disaster risk profile and faces a variety of different threats of different magnitude. On the other hand, local government is the body that bears the brunt of a disaster or impending disaster and is the first to respond. Therefore, disaster risk management as an activity related to all aspects of government should involve an integrated, multi-sectoral, multi-disciplinary approach to reduce the risk associated with hazards and vulnerability.

In terms of the institutional system, Ningbo has set up the municipal office of emergency management, specifically dealing with the public emergencies including natural disasters within the city. A series of emergency plans have been established from municipal level to districts level. There are also specific emergency plans in relation to typhoon, geological hazards, earthquake, fires, etc. (refer to Policy and Program Inventory in Section 6.3 for details of the emergency plans). However, more attentions of the emergency plans are paid to the social emergency such as production safety and social stability.

In terms of government actions on disaster risk management, the real-time forecasting works have been progressively improving in Ningbo that helps to reduce the risks in the event of disasters. It is understood that Ningbo Meteorology Bureau is responsible for weather forecast and early warnings of typhoons, storms, and others. Ningbo Water Resources Bureau takes the lead in forecasting floods and droughts and managing these disasters while Ningbo Marine and Fishery Bureau have the responsibility in marine forecast with respect to waves, storm surges and red tides, etc.

Though the city has likely comprehensive forecast system in managing the immediately forthcoming disasters, the city barely has or even has taken account of establishing raw databases for further studies or changing climate research. The deficiency of data has been seen in the Hazard Assessment. For example, the city lacks raw data on sea level rise and precipitation, limiting the understanding the risks of changing floods and sea level rise. The inadequate capability in climate change forecasting further restricts the scope of disaster risk management of the City. The hazard assessment has noted that the risks in terms of climate change will pose more threats to the City but current disaster risk management is unlikely to be prepared against them.


The Ningbo government has provided strong leadership and vision in the city‟s socio-economic development. Their success is shown through the city‟s high and growing GDP, and improved quality of life.

However, there is little mention of climate change. Future government policies do not incorporate climate change, nor do the socio-economic plans account for more severe and frequent climate change impacts and natural hazards. There is no overall policy to address or guide the city in combating and preparing for climate change. Interviews with government staff shows little knowledge and training on climate change.

As part of the World Bank project, the City formulated a Climate Change Steering Group and Taskforce. Both groups are comprised of different departments in the,





Page 85

related to climate change. The Steering Group provides the overall vision and leadership, while the Taskforces serves as the working body.

Figure 5.26: WB Climate Change Resilience Ningbo Steering Group

However there is no formal means of communication or sharing information on climate change. The groups meet when needed, and is more an informal, ad-hoc network for now. Certainly the outcome of this report- the Local Resilience Action Plan, along with its recommendations and strategies- will serve as a stronger mandate and roadmap for the group.

Moreover, limited education, training, and capacity building opportunities on climate change have been provided.

In terms of climate forecast and disaster risk management, it has been recognized that database have not been established for the climate change forecast and climate forecast resources and capability are limited in the City.


Governance

• Newly setup taskforce for climate change

• No formal means of communication or sharing information on climate change

• Limited education,

• Limited defined roles and responsibilities on climate change

• Limited education and training opportunities on climate change

• Limited departmental cooperation on climate change

• Limited governmental levels (township, district, etc.) cooperation on climate change

• Limited or no flows of information on

Member

Deputy Leader

Leader Wang Yong (Deputy Mayor)

Ye Shuangmeng

(Municipal Government )

Gu Changguo(NEO)

Gu Junqiang(NMB)

He Guoqiang(NLRB)

Chen Zhongchao

(NDRC)

Zhang Yiping(NUMB)

Ye Liguang

(NWRB)

Wu Jianyi(NMFB)

Wang Guangxu(NDRC)

Zhou Genqiang(NCAB)

Zhuang

Lifeng (NPB)

Li Qichun(NEPB)

Zhang ZhenYue

(NFB)

Fang xibiao(NCB)

Wang Yuee(NTB)

WB Climate Change Resilience Ningbo Steering Group





Page 86


training, and capacity building opportunities on climate change

climate risks

• Lack of coordination among departments

• Lack of vertical coordination (national, provincial and municipal) on climate change issues

Climate Forecast and Disaster Risk Management

• Unavailable database for climate change parameters

• Limited resources for forecasting climate change

• Lack of raw data climate change parameters, such as sea level rise, etc.

• Need for additional monitoring stations for SLR and rainfall patterns

• Climate modelling software and capacity building for correct and effective usage

• Hydro-meteorological modelling





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6 Gap Analysis

6.1 Overview

The gap analysis integrated the Hazard Assessment and City Vulnerability

Assessment with two extensive inventories- Natural Disaster and Policy and

Program to identify the gaps in Ningbo for building resilience. The Natural Disaster

Inventory reviewed the major natural disasters, corresponding government actions,

and subsequent socio-economic damage. The Policy and Program Inventory reviewed

Ningbo‟s current and future policies and programs to understand what has been

included / will be addressed in the City‟s socio-economic development, and whether

the identified climate change hazards and city vulnerabilities have been/ will be

addressed.

While climate change is considered in some cases, there are still many missing,

conflicting, and overlapping issues to be addressed. There needs to be stronger

understanding and incorporation of climate change in City policy and decision-

making. Even if current policies address climate change, there is no guarantee that

future polices will do so sufficiently, especially in light of greater and more severe

identified hazards.

6.2 Natural Disaster Inventory

The Natural Disaster Inventory (Appendix B) covered the major, best available

natural disasters, their socio-economic damages and the known government actions at

the Ningbo City and Zhejiang provincial level. Zhejiang Province‟s socio-economic

damage included the City of Ningbo. Such city and regional inclusions allowed for

cross comparisons of the scale of impacts and the related government responses. From

the available information, all the major, recent identified natural disasters were

various degrees of tropical cyclones.

In general, most of the damages are centred on residential homes, agriculture, and

other hard infrastructures, like roads and communication lines. Tropical cyclones have

been marked by a decrease in deaths, but a rise of socio-economic damage in recent

years.

Given the limited data, it is difficult to obtain the precise losses of the City and greater

Province from the natural disasters. It is estimated the total economic damage

between 2005 and 2009 to be:

Ningbo: 10.45 billion Yuan (1.53 billion USD);

Zhejiang: 45.97 billion Yuan (6.73 billion USD).

The rough comparison presents the ideas on the severity of these natural disasters to

the City and Province. In view of the damages alone, Ningbo is a more vulnerable city

to natural disasters with relatively weak resilience.

GDP Lost- Ningbo‟s typhoon lost at 23% (10.45/45.97) of the Provincial total, exceeds its total GDP contribution at 19% (refer to City Vulnerability Assessment – Economy Section).





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Fatalities- Ningbo and Zhejiang lost 17 and 53 people respectively, 32% exceeding its population percentage (14%, refer to City Vulnerability Assessment – People section, the total population in Zhejiang Province by 2009 was 51.8 million

92).

In the event of natural disasters, government intervention is crucial in protecting

families, businesses and communities. For the City of Ningbo, the inventory sees:

It is advised that a more comprehensive and public tracking system be in place to

better understand and prepare for natural hazards. This could be done through the

Civil Affairs Bureau. It is impossible to decrease or eliminate natural disasters, but

resilient measures can be taken by the City at all levels and stages to minimize socio-

economic damage.

Strength-

Government actions are effective prior to the event, which mainly focus on

relocating people and ships;

Early warning systems have been helpful in preventing greater numbers of

fatalities or injuries.

Gaps-

From the Hazard Assessment, disasters are likely to become more severe and

frequent;

From the City Vulnerability Assessment, infrastructure needs to be stronger;

No official public database on natural disasters inventory has been set up in the

City;

Further government action, especially after the disasters are unknown;

Level and type of resources for Ningbo citizens and businesses are unknown;

Communication and coordination between government departments and levels are

unknown.





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6.3 Policy and Program Inventory

The Policy and Program Inventory reviewed the types of related city policies and

programmes that could address City Vulnerabilities and Hazards. It was based on

information given, what is available, and represented a strong sample of Ningbo‟s

policies and regulations. As policies and programmes span a number of years, it is

important to see if it remains as effective with hazard forecasts and future

vulnerabilities as with current risks (Figure 6.1). Appendix B covered over 40

different policies.

Figure 6.1: Summary of Policy and Program Inventory

As the policies vary in scope, and may overlap in coverage, it is not simple to

organize them. The inventory included the main goals, time frame, funding, lead

agency, and additional benefits and challenges. Emergency plans focused on the

hazards. Other policies and programmes corresponded with the City Vulnerability

Assessment sectors, with some cross-over. For example, the 12th Five Year Plan

(FYP) was relevant in all sectors.

People- This looked at the 12th FYP and urban master plan.

Infrastructure- This included energy efficiency and renewables from the building level to city scale, as well as water resource and flood management.

Environment- This reviewed plans to protect the environment and improve greening and biodiversity.

Economy- this looked at insurance or protection schemes for businesses.

Government- Limited

Capital and operation costs, including how it is funded were difficult to find. In many

cases, the information was unavailable, with unclear cost-benefits. The farthest

policies go is to year 2020 for the Master plan; most policies are recent and within a

couple of years.

Responsible parties for the policy vary, but often match the particular bureau‟s

mandate. For example, the Public Health Bureau covers public health policies during

emergencies, while the Agriculture Bureau has a crop and livestock insurance policy

for natural disasters.

Generally, there is no policy or plan that is devoted to climate change, although some

purposefully or not, do address climate change related issues. Other key findings

include:

Master Plan – 12th FYP is the first five year plan that involves climate change

in Ningbo. The City aims to complete Municipal Climate Change Program in

Ningbo’s Vulnerabilities Policies and Programs

Climate Change

Impacts and Other

Disaster

Current Planned

Now No Yes

Future No No





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the next five years (2011-2015) and improve the calculation of carbon emission, etc. The inclusion of climate change in the FYP indicates the government is starting to be aware of climate change impacts. However, the work remains at the inception level. Further details like program objectives and implementation have not been formulated.

Moreover, as noted previously, the City Master Plan 2020 will have 150,000 more residents and 20 million m

2 of built area in 50-year flood zones.

Emergency Plans - The City has created systematic emergency plans, targeting at natural disasters like typhoon and public health. These emergency plans are helpful, but do not include climate change.

Rural Community- Though insurance schemes have been developed, protections could be more comprehensive and include climate change impacts. Moreover, vulnerabilities, identified in rural areas like Ninghai and Xiangshan are not specifically addressed.

Energy- the City is making extensive efforts to save energy on residential and commercial buildings. However, they are highly focused on mitigation measures. Few plans have been made on energy vulnerabilities identified in the City Vulnerability Assessment, such as seeking backup energy.

Water- Integrated Water Resources Plan has drawn up a comprehensive long-term plan to year 2020 to ensure a balanced water supply and demand, such as increasing reservoirs. However, climate change and its forecast water shortages are not included.

Floods- Flood has been highlighted in a series of control plans, like Flood Prevention Regulation and Urban River Management Regulation. Drainage systems are to be equipped with flood prevention and disaster risks. Urban flood control is expected to meet 1 in 100-year flood standards and rural areas are asked to meet the flood prevention criteria. Coastal seawalls and river embankments are to be reinforced. Reservoirs, dikes, and channels are to control basin flooding. In addition, further reservoir maintenance and reinforcement are planned.

But these plans have not considered the future changing patterns of floods, expected to intensify in the coming decades. Whether the flood standards and enforcement of dykes are able to combat the higher flood peaks are questionable.

Greening- Greening has been identified to be effective in improving air quality, reducing the risks of floods and minimizing soil erosion. Despite the aims to increase green area outlined in master plan and other plans, Ningbo still lags behind other competing cities. Plans to protect coastal wetland should consider the climate change impacts, particularly sea level rise.

Following the sectors of City Vulnerability Assessment, major policies were split

accordingly and were summarized in the two tables below to reveal the gaps between

the hazards, city vulnerabilities and relevant policies.




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Table 6.1: Hazard Gaps

Hazards Relevant Policy/ Program Gap Vulnerability

Temperature Rise Heat Wave Emergency Plan

Public Health Emergency Plan

Focus on natural disasters

No inclusion of climate change and changes of

disasters

No plan on climate change monitoring

No plan on climate change studies or

training/capacity building

Lack of raw data climate change

parameters, such as sea level rise, etc.

Need for additional monitoring stations for

SLR and rainfall patterns

Climate modelling software and capacity

building for correct and effective usage

Hydro-meteorological modelling

Change of Rainfall

Patterns

Natural Disaster Emergency Plan

Likely Increase of Drought Natural Disaster Emergency Plan

Increase of Heat Waves Heat Wave Emergency Plan

Public Health Emergency Plan

Increase of Floods Natural Disaster Emergency Plan

Beilun Flash Flood Emergency Plan

Increase Intensity of

Typhoons

Natural Disaster Emergency Plan

Typhoon Emergency Plan

Sea Level Rise Not Addressed




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Table 6.2: City Vulnerability Gaps

Sector Relevant Policy/ Program Gap City Vulnerability

People Healthcare 12th FYP

City Overall Master plan

Little consideration of climate

change

Focus on disaster and post-

disaster relief; little on

prevention

No data collection, statistics

planned on climate change

related impacts and disease

Lower healthcare personnel per capita

Healthcare facilities concentrated in city center

Limited understanding on health impacts from climate change

Limited data collection on health related effects and climate change

Limited public information on health impacts and climate change

Public

Knowledge &

Awareness

Not addressed Education and training

program mainly on natural

disaster management

No inclusion of climate change

High commitment, but limited general understanding on climate

change

Limited tools and resources on preparing for and addressing climate

change

Limited public information on climate change and its impacts

Limited education and training programs for climate change

Infrastruc

ture

Transport and

Planning

12th FYP: improve transport,

drainage system, etc.

Expressway Systems

Planning in Central Urban

Area

No inclusion of Design Codes

and Standards on climate risk

Focus more on development

Limited emergency and

disaster preparedness

infrastructure plans

Old existing infrastructure meeting growing population and

economic demands and climate change

Existing infrastructure located in vulnerable areas

Limited emergency access in transport network

Water,

Wastewater

and Waste

Management

12th FYP: improve

infrastructure, including

waste treatment, wastewater

treatment, etc.

No inclusion of climate change

in terms of drought and floods

into the plans, threatening

water resources

Older and insufficient capacity of drainage system

Increase waste disposal and wastewater

Traditional treatment of municipal solid wastes




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Integrated Water Resources

Plan

Rural Sewage Treatment Plan

Recovery/recycling Facilities

Plan in Ningbo Central City

Energy 12th FYP: energy saving and

low GHG emission,

exploration of renewable

energy

Energy Saving Ordinance and

Practices in Building

Application of Solar Energy

and Carbon Alternatives

Focus is on mitigation Increasing total energy consumption

Growing energy per capita consumption

Large industrial sector use of energy

Limited and carbon-intensive energy sources

Risk of power shortage

Energy infrastructure located in vulnerable areas, such as the coast

Energy efficiency for port, airport, university buildings, and facilities

and retrofitting/renovating old building, etc.

Economy Industry Agricultural Insurance

Rural Housing Insurance

Policy

Urban Insurance

Focus is on mitigation

Insurance coverage not

mandatory

Limited knowledge of climate risks by private sector

Lack of inclusion in private sector‟s investment decision-making or

plans

Limited insurance for urban and rural residents

Port remains typhoon focused

Food security, fishery and aquaculture, as well as tourism threaten

from climate risk

Incentives Not Addressed No involvement of private

sector in decision making

No incentive to the private sector to mitigate emissions, particular

GHGs




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No involvement of private

sector in building urban

resilience

No incentives to the private sectors to contribute to urban resilience

Environ

ment

Environmental

Quality

12th FYP: efforts on

improving environmental

quality

City Overall Master plan:

public green to 12m2 green

space /capita by 2020

Eco-city Construction Plan

Xiangtan Port Ecological and

Environmental Protection

Wetland Protection and

Utilization Plan

Green Regulations

Limited climate change plans

for cultural heritage

Conservative plan on green

space

NOx and acid rain issues

Low green space per capita

Increasing haze days

Water Quality

& Water

Resources

12th FYP

City Overall Master Plan

Integrated Water Resources

Plan

River Management

Regulations

Green Regulations

No inclusion of climatic risks

Focus on water pollution

mitigation

Poor river quality

Poor coastal water quality

Urban flooding/water logging

Coastal flooding

Governm Governance Not Addressed Limited integration of Climate

Change into government plans

Limited defined roles and responsibilities on climate change




Page 95


ent

and policy-making

Limited institutional

framework on climate change

Limited education and training opportunities on climate change

Limited departmental cooperation on climate change

Limited governmental levels cooperation on climate change

Limited or no flows of information on climate risks

Lack of coordination among departments

Lack of vertical coordination on climate change issues

Climate

Forecast and

Disaster Risk

Management

Not Addressed Limited application of

modelling work to policy-

making

Limited work on database

establishment and climate and

hydro-meteorological

modelling

Lack of raw data climate change parameters

Need for additional monitoring stations for SLR and rainfall patterns

Climate modelling software and capacity building for correct and

effective usage

Limited Hydro-meteorological modelling





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6.4 Summary

Most of the vulnerabilities identified in the Hazard and City Vulnerability

Assessments are not fully addressed by current government actions for natural

disasters, or policies and programs. Climate change is not fully understood or

incorporated into decision and policy making. Information is limited. Collecting and

applying more accurate and updated climate related data are necessary for more

effective preparations and use of limited city resources.

Sector Vulnerability Addressed or Not

People Healthcare Partially

Public Knowledge and Awareness No

Infrastructure Transport and Planning Partially

Waste and Wastewater Partially

Energy Partially

Economy Industry Partially

Incentives No

Environment Environmental Quality Partially

Water Quality and Water Resources Partially

Government Governance Partially

Climate Forecast and Disaster Risk

Management

No

Overall, the gap analysis confirmed and integrated the vulnerabilities in the hazard

and city vulnerability assessment. The next step was to develop a list of

recommendations for each remaining issues on the target vulnerabilities threatened by

the risks. These recommendations are either to strengthen current management or

propose new initiatives for Ningbo to consider.




Page 97

7 Recommendations

7.1 Overview

Based on the hazard and city vulnerability assessment results, as well as the gap

analysis, the recommendations proceeded to build city resilience and reduce the

vulnerabilities. The main actions directly respond to the sectors: People,

Infrastructure, Environment, Economy, and Government. Each sector‟s

vulnerabilities were reviewed again, and followed by a list of recommendations

for Ningbo to prioritize and implement as part of the Local Resilience Action

Plan.

Notably, the Inventory of Programs and Policies showed what has and will be

done by the City and its main agencies. This greatly helped the team formulate

realistic actions on what the City is able to do.

Each area has two main recommendations, followed by specific actions or

proposals. In total, there are over 70 specific proposals for Ningbo to discuss and

prioritize. This is the starting point to increase the City‟s resilience against climate

change and natural disasters.




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VULNERABILITY RECOMMENDATIONS

PEOPLE

Healthcare

• Lower healthcare personnel per capita

• Healthcare facilities concentrated

in city center

• Limited understanding on health impacts from climate change

• Limited data collection on health

related effects and climate change

• Limited public information on

health impacts and climate change

• Develop and Maintain Data/Statistics on Climate Change and Health

• System Training and Education on Collecting,

Managing, Analyzing, and Using the Health and Climate Change Data

• Increase Research on Climate Change Impacts on Health

• Increase Research Connections and Network with other

Universities and Cities Studying Health and Climate Change

• Increase Recruitment of Healthcare Practitioners

• Increase Healthcare Facilities or Access outside the City

Center

• Increase Education and Training for Healthcare

Practitioners to Prevent and Deal with Climate Change-

induced Health Impacts

• Increase Education and Knowledge on Public Health and Climate Change

Public Knowledge and

Awareness

• High Commitment, but limited

general understanding on climate

change

• Limited tools and resources on

preparing for and addressing

climate change

• Limited public information on climate change and its impacts


programs for climate change

• Instill Climate Change into the School Curriculum and

Practice

• Develop Public Climate Change Hotline

• Develop Climate Change Website and other Social Media Tools

• Develop Climate Change Centre

• Develop Wider Education and Outreach

• Disseminate Targeted Information to Vulnerable and

Key Groups

• Develop Climate Change Volunteers

• Increase Accessibility to Real Time Information

• Strengthen Real Time Information

INFRASTRUCTURE

Transport and Planning

• Old existing infrastructure

meeting growing population and

economic demands and climate change

• Existing infrastructure located in

vulnerable areas

• Limited emergency access in transport network

• Review Current Plans

• Implement Stronger Design and Construction Standards and Codes for New Built

• Prevent New Built in Most Vulnerable Areas

• Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in Vulnerable

Areas

• Resettle Population and Activities with Highest Vulnerability

• Develop and Increase Training and Education on

Stronger Building Codes and Design, and Retrofit




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• Enforce Stronger Building Codes and Retrofit

• Increase Research on Retrofit Strategies

• Develop Training for Those Building Operators and

Property Managers

• Enhance Transport Planning with Better Connectivity

• Enhance Emergency Infrastructure/Disaster Risk Management

Waste and Wastewater

• Older and insufficient capacity of

drainage system

• Increase waste disposal and wastewater

• Traditional treatment of

municipal solid wastes

• Upgrade the Drainage System

• Increase Pumping Stations

• Source Separation of Waste, Recycling, and Reusing

• Waste-to-Energy

Energy

• Increasing total energy consumption

• Growing energy per capita

consumption

• Large industrial sector use of energy

• Limited and carbon-intensive

energy sources

• Risk of power shortage

• Energy infrastructure located in

vulnerable areas, such as the

coast

• Energy efficiency for port,

airport, university buildings, and

facilities and

retrofitting/renovating old

building, etc.

• Strengthen Backup Energy

• Protect Energy Infrastructure

• Maximize Energy Efficiency

• Industry Energy Plan

• Education on Energy Demand Management

• Energy Monitoring and Real-time Information

• Diversify Energy Sources

• Increase Research on Clean Technologies and Renewable Energy

• Cost Benefit Analysis for Alternative and Renewable

Energy

• Solar Power Feasibility Study

• Wind Power Feasibility Study

ECONOMY

Industry

• Limited knowledge of climate risks by private sector

• Lack of inclusion in private

sector‟s investment decision-making or plans

• Limited insurance for urban and

rural residents

• Port remains typhoon focused

• Food security, fishery and

aquaculture, as well as tourism

threaten from climate risk

• Implement Port Resilience Plan

• Implement Agricultural Resilience Plan

• Implement Fishery Resilience Plan

• Improve Insurance System

• Undertake Targeted Education and Training

• Increase Public Private Partnership

Incentives




Page 100

• No incentive to the private sector

to mitigate emissions, particular GHGs

• No incentives to the private

sectors to contribute to urban resilience

• Develop Incentives (fiscal) for GHGs Emissions

Reduction

ENVIRONMENT

Environmental Quality

• NOx and acid rain issues

• Low green space per capita

• Increasing haze days

• Promote Greening (Also helps with flooding, water

filtration and treatment)

• Implement Cultural and Heritage Resilience Plan

• Implement Biodiversity Resilience Plan

Water Quality and Water

Resources

• Poor river quality

• Poor coastal water quality

• Urban flooding/water logging

• Coastal flooding

• Increase Reservoirs

• Increase Urban Rainwater Harvesting

• Conduct Water Pollution Control Program

• Separate Sewage from Drainage Network

• Increase Water Saving Devices and Monitoring

• Replace Older Pumping Stations

• Water Leakage Detection Scheme

• Implement Demand Management

• Integrate Climate Change Risk into Water Resource Master Plan for 2020

• Undertake Future Flood Planning

• Expand Channels and Improve Storm Water Drainage in

Flood Risk Areas

• Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity

GOVERNMENT

Governance

• Limited defined roles and

responsibilities on climate change


opportunities on climate change

• Limited departmental cooperation on climate change

• Limited governmental levels

cooperation on climate change

• Limited or no flows of information on climate risks

• Lack of coordination among

departments

• Lack of vertical coordination on climate change issues

• Determine Climate Change Taskforce Mission and

Formal Role

• Diversify Climate Change Taskforce Group Membership

• Outline Clear Roles and Responsibilities on Climate Change for Government Departments and Levels

• Increase and Share Climate Change Research and

Information

• Connect with Peer Network

• Increase Training on Disaster Risk Management

Climate Forecast and Disaster




Page 101

Of the total 70 plus recommendations, part were prepared for addressing the overall city‟s

vulnerabilities and the others were developed specifically to deal with the various risks and

vulnerabilities at different areas.

Districts Hazards Risks Recommendations

Urban

District

(including

Three

River City

District)

Urban flood

Land subsidence

High likely heat waves

Upgrade the Drainage System

Increase Pumping Stations

Promote Greening

Increase Urban Rainwater Harvesting

Separate Sewage from Drainage Network

Replace Older Pumping Stations

Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity

Yuyao Heavy storm during tropical

cyclones

Prone to flash floods and

landslides

Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in

Vulnerable Areas

Enforce Stronger Building Codes and

Retrofit

Cixi Drought

Land subsidence

Sea level rise


Vulnerable Areas

Increase Reservoirs

Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity

Fenghua Heavy storm during tropical

cyclones

Prone to flash floods and

landslides


Vulnerable Areas


Retrofit

Xiangshan Typhoon

Drought


Vulnerable Areas


Retrofit

Increase Reservoirs

Ninghai Great Rainfall

Heavy storms during tropical

cyclones


Vulnerable Areas


Risk Management

• Lack of raw data climate change

parameters

• Need for additional monitoring

stations for SLR and rainfall

patterns

• Climate modeling software and

capacity building for correct and

effective usage

• Limited Hydro-meteorological modeling

•

• Strengthen Hydro Meteorology and Geophysical

Modeling

• Enhance GIS and Spatial Tools

• Increase Resources for Disaster Risk Management

Develop Academic Courses on Climate Change Modeling and Scenario Building




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Districts Hazards Risks Recommendations

Floods

Landslides

Higher temperature increase

Retrofit

Increase Reservoirs

Develop Climate Change Centre

In general, the recommendations were proposed for the city to build its resilience and address its vulnerabilities/risks from different aspects and through different strategies. The following sections presented the details of each recommendation with reference to the respective vulnerabilities identified in the separate city sectors.




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7.2 People

Demographic shifts will result in a growing, older, and more transient population. Continuous economic growth sees a rapid population expansion and urbanization. However, there have been little corresponding programs or policies to adapt the growing population against climate change, particularly on Public Health and Public Knowledge.

7.2.1 Public Health Vulnerabilities

Specific Public Health Vulnerabilities include:

Lower healthcare personnel per capita;

Healthcare facilities concentrated in city center;

Limited understanding on health impacts from climate change;

Limited data collection on health related effects and climate change;

Limited public information on health impacts and climate change.

7.2.2 Recommendations to Improve Public Health

Recommendations to improve public health are below. Most of these should be led by or include the Public Health Bureau.

Develop and Maintain Data/Statistics on Climate Change and Health-

This database should collect past, current, and future statistics on public

health under different extreme weather events and natural disasters.

Besides the common diseases, data collection on climate related diseases

like heat stress/stroke, asthma rates, and vector/water borne diseases

should be included.

System Training and Education on Collecting, Managing, Analyzing,

and Using the Health and Climate Change Data- This should include

epidemiologists, Public Health Bureau officials, health care practitioners,

and emergency workers. Further study on the database system and tools

are required.

Increase Research on Climate Change Impacts on Health- This should

be in close partnership with Public Health Bureau, local university and,

public health institutions and related organizations. Research should

include understanding on how extreme weather events, such as heat

waves, air pollution-related mortality and morbidity, affect human health,

and the best ways to prevent and address it. Further study should be done

on vulnerable groups such as the floating population, elderly, and children,

and other social sectors.

Increase Research Connections and Network with other Universities

and Cities Studying Health and Climate Change- Ningbo can share

research findings, tools, and methodologies with other universities and

research centers, and learn about their respective work and findings.




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Increase Recruitment of Healthcare Practitioners- This includes

employing more experienced and junior doctors, nurses, technicians for

the growing and densely populated city center, and spreading them further

out to the smaller health care centers in the city periphery. It also includes

attracting more trained volunteer healthcare and emergency workers.

Increase Healthcare Facilities or Access outside the City Center-

Healthcare facilities should be carefully planned and developed throughout

the whole city, taking account of the growing population and the

distribution of vulnerable segments. This could include mobile or smaller

and more versatile healthcare units/stations to rapidly aid the area

population in times of emergency, particularly the rural areas threatened

by natural disasters but with inadequate healthcare facilities, like Ninghai

and Xiangshan. This minimizes the burdens of the main hospitals in the

city center and directs only the most serious cases to them.

Increase Education and Training for Healthcare Practitioners to

prevent and Deal with Climate Change-induced Health Impacts-

Healthcare practitioners should incorporate climate change into their

medical education and ongoing training and practice. They should have

access to the latest research and data on climate change and health, be able

to feed their experiences back into the data and research.

Increase Education and Knowledge on Public Health and Climate

Change- Greater communications and campaigns should be done to reach

out to the public and increase their knowledge, especially on prevention

and tools and resources to access.

7.2.3 Public Knowledge Vulnerabilities

Specific Public Knowledge Vulnerabilities include:

High commitment, but limited general understanding on climate change;

Limited tools and resources on preparing for and addressing climate

change;

Limited public information on climate change and its impacts;

Limited education and training programs for climate change.

7.2.4 Recommendations to Enhance Public Knowledge

To equip the public with relevant climate change risk knowledge, to build prevention and response capacity, and to ensure up-to-date and accurate information is quickly accessed and disseminated throughout the disaster lifecycle, Ningbo needs to increase public‟s knowledge on climate change. The public should automatically know where to get the information, frequently check it for updates, and be able to feedback their input or ask questions. Education should be conducted at all levels of society. The public should be empowered with knowledge to support Ningbo‟s climate resilience. These recommendations should be done in close conjugation with the Climate Change Taskforce.




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Instill Climate Change into the School Curriculum and Practice-

Students should be taught about climate change science, its impacts, and

how best to prevent and address it. Children from a young age must

understand the warning information and perils to which their communities

are exposed, as well as the appropriate response behaviors, such as during

practice drills. Therefore, themes of climate change and concept of

mitigation and adaptation should be introduced as a continuing theme in

regular classes and extracurricular activities. Seniors should be shown the

career opportunities related to climate change. In addition, government

might continue to work with many stakeholders to support learning about

climate change, through the provision of curriculum-linked learning

resources and professional learning opportunities.

Develop Public Climate Change Hotline- The public should be able to

ask questions or get more information about climate change related

matters, including tips on prevention. They should be able to feedback

information on related policies or ongoing programs, as well as

suggestions and ideas. Education and ongoing training should be

conducted for those manning the hotlines.

Develop Climate Change Website and other Social Media Tools- This

will be a place to host the latest and most extensive climate change

information, including related policies and programs, studies and research,

and climate forecasts and extreme weather events. As forecasting, also

included should be early warning systems, disaster prone areas, past

extreme weather events and natural disasters, the location of emergency

shelters.

Develop Climate Change Centre- Accessible and open places should be

made where the public can go to collect and share information, speak with

experts and link with other like-minded individuals. The center can also

engage in community activities and programs, such as hosting climate

change related talks and events. Education and ongoing training should be

conducted for those operating the centre. Centers can be placed initially in

the target areas, and other vulnerable areas in the city, such as the south in

Ninghai. The place could be in existing buildings, such as hospitals,

community centers, schools, etc.

Develop Wider Education and Outreach- Reach out to the local

community in Ningbo through multiple channels and long term programs

aimed at all levels including senior-citizen and community centers, and

hospitals. This includes a public campaign, utilizing the local media, and

producing communications material, such as leaflets or brochures. Such

material should also be available in the Climate Change Centre and

website. The climate change hotline and website information should be

included in all material and widely distributed.

Disseminate Targeted Information to Vulnerable and Key Groups

such as:

o Farmers on how to address climate change for their crops and

livestock




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o Fishermen on how to address climate change for their fisheries

and aquaculture

o Elderly on emergency preparedness including safe and efficient

evacuation

o Tourists on what to do in an emergency, locations of emergency

shelters, how to get information from hotline and website. This

would be working closely with the Tourist Bureau and industry,

such as hotels

o Floating population on resources and tools on preparing and

addressing climate change

Develop Climate Change Volunteers- It is suggested to train interested

individuals in education outreach on addressing climate change, especially

to the vulnerable or hard-to-reach population groups, like rural population

in Ninghai and Xiangshan. They can initiate regular community programs

such as art, games and competitions on climate change, working closely

with the climate change center and utilizing the website and social media.

Selected, trained volunteers can also aid during emergencies.

Increase Accessibility to Real Time Information- This information,

such as forecasting, early warning systems, disaster prone areas, past

extreme weather events and natural disasters should be readily accessible

to the public through multiple medias. Mobile phones could be used in

providing early warnings.

Strengthen Real Time Information - Forecasting, early warning, and

monitoring facilities should be improved and expanded, especially rainfall

and sea level monitoring stations. Information should be easily accessible

to the public, such as early warning system alerts or nearest emergency

shelter (GPS oriented) or evacuation route on their mobile.

7.3 Infrastructure

Ningbo should take an integrative role to ensure that risks are properly incorporated into its physical infrastructure design, construction and operation. The two main infrastructure vulnerabilities and corresponding recommendations involve Existing and Future Infrastructure and Transportation and Energy Security.

7.3.1 Planning and Transport Vulnerability

Specific infrastructure vulnerabilities of the City include:

Older, existing infrastructure meeting growing population and economic

demands and climate change;

Existing infrastructure located in vulnerable areas;

Limited emergency access in transport network.

In view of the policies and programs, they are lacking:




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Master plan, transport, and other infrastructure plans and policies do not

address climate change;

Design Codes and Standards not inclusive of climate risk;

Transport plans focus ground transportation;

Limited emergency and disaster preparedness infrastructure plans.

7.3.2 Recommendations for Integrated Planning and

Transport

Ningbo government, along with private developers, contractors, and others involved in infrastructure should play in active role in addressing climate change. This includes enhancing resilience of new infrastructure, buildings and services; guiding where development should and should not take place; identifying and retrofitting at risky infrastructure. Much of this involves the Construction Bureau and Planning Bureau.

Review Current Plans– It is known that the City Master Plan 2020 may

expose risk to more people and infrastructure. Therefore, further review of

the plan prior to the development is advised. Additional measures or

prohibitions would need to be done to ensure overall development is

sound.

Implement Stronger Design and Construction Standards and Codes

for New Built- All new structures in hazard-prone areas, such as Ninghai

in risks of landslide and flooding and Xiangshan with threaten of typhoons

should adhere to stronger building and design codes or through an efficient

code improvement plan (e.g. raise the designation of minimum floor

elevations, piling depths and bracing requirements, etc). The codes should

be written with unified approaches to avoid conflicting clauses with clear

definitions for buildings with different categories of importance. There is a

need for corresponding design institutes to follow specified sea

level/natural hazard thresholds or indicators as a basis for setting coastline

building rules for set-back and elevation. The Construction Bureau should

engage consultancies and international experiences in regularly reviewing

and updating of relevant planning and building codes to meet climate risk.

Prevent New Built in Most Vulnerable Areas- During the design stage

of new buildings; the first step to reduce risk is to follow an integrated

planning and study process by using lower risky locations. The Planning

Bureau should be aware of the climate change risk, and avoid or better

prepare selecting sites for development. For instance, mountainous areas

highly susceptible to landslides and flash floods should avoid intensive

constructions or excavations for any development, tunnels or traffic lines.

The Planning Bureau should be given access to the latest climate change

and spatial data from Ningbo Meteorology Bureau. Hazard map should be

served as a reference during the planning.

Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in Vulnerable Areas -

Vulnerable existing buildings and infrastructure should be identified in a

planning program or rectification program. Retrofitting of existing




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buildings/infrastructure should be planned and implemented in stages; not

only to suit the differing priorities from areas and types of buildings, but

also to reduce the financial and resources pressures on the authorities from

implementing all measures in one go. Priority will be given to the areas

with the highest vulnerability and demand for the basic infrastructure

provisions. For instance, those buildings with public significance such as

hospitals, food storage facilities, educational and institutional buildings.

Attention will be also located at highly vulnerable areas, like Cixi in risk

of sea level rise, Ninghai in risk of various natural disasters, and Three

River City District in risk of floods.

Resettle Population and Activities with Highest Vulnerability- Land-

use zoning in accordance with hazard zoning needs to be developed, so as

to gradually de-concentrate population and economic activities within

high-hazard areas. Resettlement needs to be done carefully, involve close stakeholder engagement and financial considerations for those affected.

Develop and Increase Training and Education on Stronger Building

Codes and Design, and Retrofit - This should be done with the

Construction Bureau and targeted at professionals in the buildings and

construction industry, including architects, urban designers, engineers,

surveyors, etc. Climate change should be included in professional

education for student engineers and architects. Continuing Professional

Education should be led by membership groups such as Institute of

Engineers.

Enforce Stronger Building Codes and Retrofit- The Construction

Bureau and Planning Bureau, with related departments should enhance

supervision of construction and building end-use to ensure that buildings

are built and operated to better withstand natural hazards, such as flooding

and strong wind in Xiangshan area. Government officials should be

trained to monitor and enforce the design and building codes.

Increase Research on Retrofit Strategies- More research on improving

retrofit construction techniques such as more robust connections is needed.

Various building materials and methods should be studied for suitable

application and specific local use. This will be done in conjugation with

local research institutes and universities, engineers and other professional

organizations, and their respective international counterparts.

Develop Training for Those Building Operators and Property

Managers- Building operators and property managers should be trained in

emergency preparedness and disaster risk management, especially in the

vulnerable areas, such as the port in facing more severe typhoons. They

should know the locations of emergency facilities and be able to manage

the emergency resources, take responsibility during emergency.

Enhance Transport Planning with Better Connectivity- The transport

strategy should comprise of three levels- demand reduction, emission

reduction and transport diversification. Safety, efficiency and quality of

the current public transportation system should be further enhanced to

reduce the number of private vehicles and relieve congestion. Policies

should be in place to strategically incentivize transition from fossil fuel to




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low-carbon fuel or renewable. Meanwhile, necessary facilities and

hardware to encourage the use of low or zero-emission vehicles (e.g.

electric vehicle charging facilities and conveniently located alternative

fuelling stations) should be enabled. Congestion could be further improved

by a careful planning with provision of excavation routes for emergency

use, particularly in the core urban area.

Enhance Emergency Infrastructure/Disaster Risk Management- For

transport, this includes publicly known duplicate access of roads; walk and

waterways. The public should know and be able to safely travel to

emergency shelters; medical vehicles should have a fast route to the

hazard zone; and there should be an effective way to clear priority

transport paths. Communications and back-up communications should be

heavily connected during emergency for up to date information. Food

storage facilities and other key infrastructure should be placed higher

ground food storage facilities. Like the Daqi emergency shelter, the

location of emergency operations centre with minimal vulnerability to the

most common hazards in the area should be defined and communicated

broadly.

7.3.3 Waste and Wastewater

Specific waste water and waste management systems vulnerabilities include:

Older and insufficient capacity of drainage system;

Increasing waste disposal and wastewater;

Traditional treatment of municipal solid wastes.

7.3.4 Recommendations to Wastewater and Waste Treatment

The recommendation is to further improve the wastewater and waste treatment to reduce the potentially induced risks, like the urban flood due to the overload of combined drainage system with wastewater pipes. This could be led by the Urban Management Bureau. The specific recommendations include:

Upgrade the Drainage System – Before upgrading the drainage system, the careful inspections of the city‟s drains system including pump houses should be undertaken to comprehensively capture the current conditions of the system. Priority should be given to high flood risk areas, like Three River City District which has a large portion of shared sewer-drainage line. Regular cleaning and maintenance of the system should be required.

Increase Pumping Stations – Pumping stations should be upgraded and increased to ensure continuous operation, relieve the load of existing facilities and reduce the risks of malfunction, particularly the stations in older city regions that have been in the service for more than 15 years and gradually aged.

Source Separation of Waste, Recycling and Reusing – Wastes should be separated from the source and recycled and reused as far as possible to reduce the load of landfill and consumption of resources and energy. The government agencies could issue handbooks on separation, recycle/reuse to the industry and public. Facilities like waste sorting bins should be




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provided to the public. Trainings and education in the field of waste management should also be implemented at community level to raise public‟s awareness in waste management.

Waste-to-Energy – Waste-to-energy is an alternative to carbon fuel energy in aiding reducing the carbon emissions. Research on its technology and application could be worked together with local universities and institutes. Ningbo government could also search for the cooperation with international organizations and best available practices.

7.3.5 Energy Vulnerability

Specific energy vulnerabilities include:

Increasing total energy consumption;

Growing energy per capita consumption;

Large industrial sector use of energy;

Limited and carbon-intensive energy sources;

Risk of power shortage;

Energy infrastructure located in vulnerable areas, such as the coast;

Energy efficiency for port, airport, university buildings, and facilities and

retrofitting/renovating old building, etc.

Ningbo‟s policy and program focus more on energy saving. Few initiatives have started on exploring alternative renewable energy.

7.3.6 Recommendations to Improve Energy Security

The other recommendation is to further accelerate the transition from fossil fuel to low-carbon energy, as well as enhance level of safety and reliability of electricity supply. NDRC should be the lead or closely involved. The Team therefore made the following particular recommendations:

Strengthen Backup Energy- Backup of utility supply sources and

duplication of line including electricity supply and communication for

critical services are strategically important. Key examples include

hospitals, food storage centers, emergency shelters, and government

offices. Ningbo should identify and prioritize which areas and services are

needed during disaster, and ensure there is adequate backup energy and plans to support them.

Protect Energy Infrastructure- To maintain stable energy supply, there

should be a plan to protect energy infrastructure and avoid building new

energy infrastructure in high risk areas, such as low-lying coasts where are

susceptible to increasing coastal flooding, typhoon and sea level rise.

Maximize Energy Efficiency- Ningbo has already implemented multiple

policies and programs on energy saving and emission reduction in

different aspects (See Inventory of Policy and Program), energy

efficiency and emissions reduction can be further realized through




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building retrofit, improved energy design codes, and demand management

to meet the total energy supply.

Industry Energy Plan- Industrial sector takes up more than 75% of the

energy consumption in Ningbo. A specific plan should be implanted and

include requirements of electrical equipments/appliances, adopting green

architectural design measures, and incorporating an industry energy

management system. Ningbo government could aid the implementation of

energy plan by the way of institutional and financial measures.

Education on Energy Demand Management- In view of the growth of

municipal energy consumption, the public should be better educated on

energy consumption and demand management. This includes behavioral

change on energy, utilizing energy saving devices, and limiting energy

use. This can be done in conjugation with the public knowledge strategy

from the People section.

Energy Monitoring and Real-time Information- Energy monitoring

devices should be more widely used and available in public and private

buildings and residential homes. Tracking real time energy use has been shown to be effective in changing behavior and limiting energy use.

Diversify Energy Sources- In the long run, Ningbo‟s energy supply

should be diversified. Energy diversification helps to protect Ningbo

against supply disruptions and fluctuations in fuel prices. Ningbo should

integrate a mixture of energy supplies, as well as a range of technologies

and fuel types. The government should consider providing necessary

incentives for power companies, developers and households to promote

wider use of renewable energy, both in government projects and in the

private sectors. A first step in this would be to conduct a feasibility study

on Ningbo‟s renewable energy potential.

Increase Research on Clean Technologies and Renewable Energy-

Greater research should be done on clean technologies and renewables

from the building to city level. This should be done in close partnership

with local universities and research centers, leveraging the wider research network.

Cost Benefit Analysis for Alternative and Renewable Energy- It is

forecasted that technically viable options such as solar, wind and waste-to-

energy will become more commercially viable and the large scale

application more visible. A cost benefit analysis should be done on

alternative and renewable energy, compared to traditional energy sources

to determine the level of financial incentives needed and policies required

to promote greater use.

Solar Power Feasibility Study- Ningbo is in the third solar zone with

about 1050-1400kWH/m2 of solar radiation. The average daily radiation is

about 3-4 kWh/m2. The sunlight time in the Ningbo different regions does

not show a big contrast; percentage difference is within 10% with annual

1,800 to 2,000 sunlight hours. In 2009, the electricity consumption is

40,025GWh. Typical solar panels have an efficiency of about 10%,

expensive ones perform at 20%.




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Figure 7.2: Spatial

Distribution of Wind

per m2 of Hoop 3

Assuming 15% efficient PV panels are used

and the highest value of the range of solar

irradiation, it requires:

(40025x106 kWh /1400 kWh/m2) /15% =

190.6km2

The area of whole Ningbo is 9,817 km2 and

the urban area is 2,462km2. Therefore, if

one needs to convert fossil fuel based electricity generation in Ningbo to solar-based, around 7.7% of urban area needs to be covered with 15% efficient panel; comparing to the size of standard football field, 190.6km

2 is also roughly equal to 25,000 numbers

of football field. Further solar power feasibility study is recommended, especially for the north with most hours of sunlight.

Wind Power Feasibility Study- According to the data, the coastline of Ningbo has ample wind resources. The typical power of the wind per square metre of hoop in coastal Ningbo region ranges from 127 to 144w/m

2,

which is roughly equivalent to 5.9m/s to 6.2m/s in terms of wind speed. This range of wind speed is much higher than the inland area, where its wind speed is in average roughly equal to 3m/s. Both average wind speed and number of days with strong wind

has been decreasing since late 1980s. The average wind speed of Ningbo is approximately 5.3 m/s. If windmills are located along the coastal areas of Ningbo, with wind speed of 6m/s, it approximately produces a power of 2 W per m

2 of land area. It is worth exploring offshore wind as it is well suited for

the seashore regions of Zhejiang. At sea, as winds are generally stronger and steadier than on land, offshore wind farms deliver a higher power per unit area than onshore wind farms. Feasibility study on various factors, including the availability and reliable supply of wind resource, space for setting up the facilities, commercial viability etc. need to be conducted.

7.4 Economy

Economically, Ningbo remains strong with a high GDP per capita, diverse industries and vigorous foreign investment compared to other major Chinese cities. There are ambitious economic targets in the City‟s 12

th Five Year Plan

which is driving a lot of the development to support its growing and more affluent population and industry. The main vulnerabilities lie in Industry and Incentives of the Business.

7.4.1 Industry Vulnerabilities

Specific industry vulnerabilities include:

Figure 7.1: Annual Hours of

Sunshine in Ningbo 3




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Limited knowledge of climate risk by private sector;

Climate change not included in private sector‟s investment decision-

making or plans;

Limited insurance for urban and rural residents;

Port remains typhoon focused;

Food security from agriculture and aquaculture from climate risk.

7.4.2 Recommendations to Implement Industry Resilience

Program and Plans

Climate change should be part of business‟ investment decision- making. How would more severe and frequent climate change impacts affect our business and business strategy? What needs to be done to account for inevitable climate change impacts? Such thinking and actions could also serve to reduce costs, increase return on investments, and improve corporate social responsibility. Corresponding government departments should be responsible for respective recommendations.

Implement Port Resilience Plan- As a coastal city, the Port plays a vital

role in the City‟s economic development. Currently, the Port has one

general emergency plan (to typhoons). The Ningbo Port Group Co. Ltd.

acknowledged its weakness during the discussions. Port management

should identify the impacts of climate change on the port and take steps to

protect its strategic and operational objectives. Stronger and more

advanced design and retrofit would add resilience to the port. Backup

strategies should be included in the plan to ensure its continuous runs and

further study regarding the impacts of a changing climate, particular sea

level rise on the port is suggested to take into account.

Implement Agricultural Resilience Plan- Recognizing the importance of

food security, Ningbo has implemented initiatives on protecting food.

However, this does not incorporate climate change impacts, which as seen

in the Natural Disaster Inventory cause devastating damage on

agriculture, livestock and food storage. Incorporating climate change into

Ningbo‟s food security and agricultural plans is vital, including protection

of farmers, livestock and related assets; and providing adequate food to

residents during emergency. Possible hazard-resistance crops should be

explored, tested and promoted to expand the production capacity,

especially in high typhoon risk rural areas of Xiangshan.

Implement Fishery Resilience Plan- A decrease in aquaculture has been

seen in the production and number of fishermen in the City Vulnerability

Assessment. A changing climate, such as temperature rise, intensified

typhoons, heavier storms and sea level rise, will further affect Ningbo‟s

fishing industry, all located along the coast. However, the aquaculture

master plan in the Policy Inventory shows little on climate change. More

can be done than the current plans for more durable tanks in the master

plan. For example, fishermen and related assets need to be protected.

Marine life should be monitored, especially against heat waves.

Refrigerated food storage facilities should have additional power back-up.




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Research on finding more adaptive and commercial species should be in

collaboration with universities and local institutions.

Improve Insurance System- from the City Assessment, it is noted that

Ningbo has an insurance system. But the urban insurances cover more on

resident healthcare, employment, retirement, etc. than climate change or

natural disaster impacts. Though a certain number of crops, livestock and

collapsed rural houses are protected for rural residents, the priority is still

general healthcare than incorporating climate change impacts. Finally, the

insurance focuses mainly on post-disaster relief, rather than pre-disaster

prevention. Options to expand insurance against natural disasters and

climate change impacts for the complete lifecycle (pre and post-disasters)

in rural and urban areas are recommended.

Undertake Targeted Education and Training- The Business education

can be two-fold. First, it should focus on mitigating carbon in plans,

operation, and management. This could include investment of clean

technology, techniques on the adoption of renewable energy and

improvement of energy efficiency. Second, it should look at protecting or

adapting the business against climate.

Increase Public Private Partnership- Private sector should be more

involved in climate change decision-making and opportunities. Typically

involvement starts with mitigation projects, such as energy efficiency and

renewable energies, but the local Government could pilot new projects on

climate resilience and adaptation able to enhance the overall urban

resilience, such as upgrading drainage system and clearing channels to

avoid floods and waterlogs, climate proofing infrastructures, partnering on

capacity building programs, etc.

7.4.3 Vulnerabilities and Recommendations on Incentive

Specific vulnerabilities of incentives include:

No incentive to the private sector to mitigate emissions, particular GHGs;

No incentives to the private sectors to contribute to urban resilience.

As industry accounts for a large portion of Ningbo‟s GDP as well as carbon energy consumption, incentives to reduce its GHGs emissions should be recommended, specifically as follow:

Develop Incentives (fiscal) for GHGs Emissions Reduction - It has been

observed that investment in the environment started bringing fiscal

benefits to the city, but not specific measures are in place. Incentives could

be put in place to stimulate energy efficiency projects for important

infrastructure such as the port, airport, university buildings and new

facilities and retrofitting/renovating old building. Incentives should be

studied in order to verify feasibility and possible outcome of such.




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7.5 Environment

The assessment and gap analysis have seen the key vulnerabilities of environment in the general environmental quality, particularly air and water quality. Linking with other sectors, Environmental Quality and Water Resources and Flood will be the focus in the recommendation.

7.5.1 Environmental Quality Vulnerabilities

Some of the environmental vulnerabilities are due more to traditional economic development activities and not climate change. Nonetheless it is important to note the overlap as the recommendations would benefit both. Specific environment vulnerabilities include:

NOx and acid rain issues;

Cultural heritage interventions do not consider climate change impacts;

Increasing haze days.

7.5.2 Recommendations to Enhance Environmental Quality

Local government departments should work together to enhance the city‟s environmental quality. This involves Environmental Protection Department, Urban Management Bureau and Forestry Bureau.

Promote Greening (Also helps with flooding, water filtration and treatment)- Greening has been proved to be effective to improve urban air quality as well as helpful in mitigating floods and water filtration and treatment. Urban area, especially Three River City District where poor air quality is a concern and urban flooding is a threat in the development, should make more efforts on greening. Specific practices could include:

o Substituting concrete land with green land in the land use plan if practicable

o Expanding community green spaces

o Increasing green walls, roofs, and alleys

o Increasing urban agriculture (additional food security benefits)

o Inserting greening targets into master plan

o Inserting greening requirements into design code and construction

o Increasing education on greening strategies for professionals, such as landscape designers

o Expanding wetlands

o Increasing green and pervious pavements in pedestrian walks, roads, and parking lots

Implement Cultural Heritage Resilience Plan- Ningbo possesses a great number of cultural and historic heritage sites throughout the City. A series of programs have been conducted to protect the sites, however, it has not incorporated climate change. It is recommended that a review should be done on the existing protection plans to incorporate the climate change




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risks and adaptation measures to better protect the valuables from the climate change impacts.

Implement Biodiversity Resilience Plan- Rich biodiversity is important in improving the city‟s resilience against climate change. It is recommended to conduct an extensive baseline study with support of local institutions to understand the current conditions. Identification and protection of species affected by climate change impacts, such as increased droughts, warmer water temperatures, etc. should be taken into account. Particular attention should be given to species in coastal wetland which is very likely to be affected by the rising sea level.

7.5.3 Water Resource and Flood Vulnerabilities

Specific water resource and flood vulnerability includes:

Poor river quality;

Poor coastal water quality;

Urban flooding/water logging;

Coastal flooding.

7.5.4 Recommendations to Improve Water Resources and

Flood Management

Though Ningbo is located in the coastal areas with abundant water resources, extreme weather events, particularly increasing floods, storms surge and droughts make water resources management critical. Much of this will be led by the Water Resource Bureau and Urban Drainage Company.

Increase Reservoirs- Storage of raw water in reservoirs in the basin or

closer to the City helps to ensure that water collected in the wet periods is

available for use in the dry times.

o Most of the reservoirs are currently located in the southern part of the city, where rainfall is higher but meanwhile flooding there is also higher. More reservoirs should be built in southern Ningbo, like Ninghai.

o Xiangshan and Cixi needs more water storage due to the threats of droughts where agriculture accounts for a key portion of the industry but requires great amount of water resources.

Increase Urban Rainwater Harvesting- The Three River City District

suffers from flooding. Many of the buildings can be equipped with

facilities to collect rainwater to reduce the runoff. The collected rainwater

should be further treated for use, like flushing, irrigation, etc. Apart from

minimizing floods, the measure would also reduce the reliance on

freshwater and minimize water treatment.

Conduct Water Pollution Control Program- Besides water quantity,

water quality should be improved. A detailed investigation on pollution

sources could be helpful for subsequent control measures. There should be




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a comprehensive connection of pollution sources with a wastewater

treatment network for urban and rural areas. Water pollution control

program could be more effective with the incorporation of relevant

policies and monitoring system.

Separate Sewage from Drainage Network- This would release the

burden and reduce the overload risks of the wastewater treatment network,

especially the Three River City District which could be undertaken

together with recommendation - Upgrade the Drainage System.

Increase Water Saving Devices and Monitoring- There should be

design requirements for all new buildings to use water-saving devices,

with existing buildings phasing out and replacing with new water saving

devices. Education and financial incentives can be considered to

encourage replacement and usage.

Replace Older Pumping Stations- Most of the pumping stations in the

city center and Three River City District are over 15 years old. As the

economic and population demands grow, it is hard for them to continue to

function as effectively. Plans should be made to identify and replace

pumping stations and improve drainage in parallel with recommendation –

Increase Pumping Stations.

Water Leakage Detection Scheme- Water leakage should be identified

and repaired. This includes teaching building occupants and property

managers about water leakage and training detection and replacement and

could incorporate it as part of training recommended in Developing

Training for Those Building Operators and Property Managers.

Implement Demand Management- This includes a water savings

campaign for the public and recycling water. By doing so, water savings

could be understood as the economically and/ or socially beneficial

reduction of water withdraws, water use or water waste.

Integrate Climate Change Risk into Water Resource Master plan for

2020- There should be a water specific adaptation policy to optimize water

supply and quality, covering the vulnerable areas in water resources within

the context of a changing climate.

Undertake Future Flood Planning– Given the limited data on floods and

the likely increase of the forecast in the city, Ningbo should develop a

framework which could be applied to the planning process to ultimately

develop a predictive flood planning so that the relevant stakeholders could

know the severity of the floods and where and how to improve/reinforce

the infrastructure.

Depending on the location and physical characteristics, lands in Ningbo

maybe subject to flooding from:

o the sea only;

o both the sea and surface runoff simultaneously; and

o rivers only; and




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o inadequate surface drainage or ponding.

Low lying coastal areas that are not near to the mouths of significant rivers

are subject only to flooding from the sea while inland areas which are

adjacent to rivers but above the zone of tidal influence are subject only to

fluvial flooding. Areas in between, as is the case with much of Ningbo

can be subject to both.

Flooding from the sea is caused by a combination of factors including

extreme tides and storm surge. Future changes to the intensity of flooding

from the sea will be caused by sea level rise (SLR), increased storm surge

(SS) due to higher wind speeds, and land subsidence (LS).

Flooding from runoff is caused by rainfall generated surface runoff or

from surface ponding. In particular the rate and duration of rainfall events,

the capacity of conveyance channels to pass runoff, and the availability of

storage adjacent to and off channel all affect the severity of flood events.

Future changes to runoff rates will be effected by a variety of factors, most

significantly by changes in rainfall intensity and duration (RID), land use

(LU) and floodplain reclamation (FR).

The Team proposed a framework for developing a future flood planning

scenario as the formula:

Flooding from the Sea (SLR + SS+LS) + Flooding from Runoff (RID +

LU+FR) = Future Flood Planning Scenario

Expand Channels and Improve Storm Water Drainage in Flood Risk

Areas- Flood risks could be further reduced by expanding the channels

and dredging works. This should include the most vulnerable areas in

floods include Three River City District and mountainous Ninghai area.

Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity- Research on the severity and

effect of sweater intrusion should be further explored in the coastal area of

the City, particularly areas that are threatened by land subsidence.

Measures could consider:

o Raw water storage to increase the bulk flows against the rising sea

level

o Desalination process for brackish water to improve water treatment

7.6 Government

Many experts believe that adaptation has to be “locally driven because the

hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities are shaped by local contexts”.93

While there can

be outside technical support and financial aid, the City is most familiar with its

own issues and will need to build up internal capacity long after foreign assistance

leaves. Institutional capacity needs to be competent, strong, and withstand normal

local governmental changes. It should be an iterative process and driven by the

institutions




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and personalities behind it. Ningbo needs to strengthen its climate change

governance and related modelling and disaster risk management tools.

7.6.1 Governance Vulnerabilities

Specific governance vulnerability includes:

Limited defined roles and responsibilities on climate change;

Limited education and training opportunities on climate change;

Limited departmental cooperation on climate change;

Limited governmental levels cooperation on climate change;

Limited or no flows of information on climate risks;

Lack of coordination among departments;

Lack of vertical coordination on climate change issues.

7.6.2 Recommendations to Strengthen Climate Change

Governance

Determine Climate Change Taskforce Mission and Formal Role-

While the Ningbo Climate Change Taskforce aims to be the entity to

implement the LRAP, and the first and best stop for climate change

information and strategy, how it handles the strategy is up to discussion.

As in most government agencies, it will need to determine its level of

independence and level of influence and control: whether it will take on

just a coordinator role and let other departments take up most of the work;

or whether it will build up its own resources and capacities to take on the

work.

As the group meets on an „as needed basis‟, at the minimum, it should

establish a more formal role, with set communications, targets, and tasks.

Meetings and communications for the Climate Change Taskforce should

be often and prioritized among the various departments and other

stakeholders. The group should be held accountable, with agreed goals, or

work to accomplish. There could be a framework with key performance

indicators or targets to help monitor accountability and progress.

Diversify Climate Change Taskforce Group Membership- the

Taskforce Membership is composed of only government departments.

However, climate change does not only affect government officials; nor

should communication. Climate change affects all sectors and levels of

society. They should be responsible as well for climate change, and have

much to input and contribute. Among the sectors to be considered are

private organizations, academic community, nonprofit groups, and sub

local governments. Academics can provide their latest research and

information on climate change. They can also connect to the research and

thinking from the global academic community, and see which apply to

Ningbo. Nonprofit groups, working with communities can provide local




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input and action. The private sector could contribute with their research

and development on new applicable technologies, or business models.

While their knowledge and resources may vary, the new members are

expected to place high importance on climate change and the Taskforce„s

mission. They can be identified and selected by the government, who will

still lead the group. The group should still be selective and manageable.

But becoming more inclusive can attract new ideas, contribute resources,

and spread the responsibility.

Outline Clear Roles and Responsibilities on Climate Change for

Government Departments and Levels- Each department should include

climate change into their plans and policies. They should also have a clear

understanding of how climate change affects their responsibilities and how

they should address it.

Increase and Share Climate Change Research and Information- More

climate change research and information should be available to

government officials to add in their decision-making. The Climate Change

Taskforce may take a lead in this dissemination. The Urban Climate

Change Research Network, a consortium of individuals and institutions

dedicated to the analysis of climate change mitigation and adaptation from

an urban perspective would be a good place to start.

Connect with Peer Network- Once the Taskforce has established its

formal structure and expanded its membership, it should share its

experiences and leanings with other similar City Climate Change

Taskforces or working groups. Already, the group has reached out to US

cities on a recent study tour. Further communication and follow-up can be

done. This type of knowledge sharing, especially between cities with

similar climate change risks or city vulnerabilities, can be valuable in

devising strategies; obtaining new research or data; and understanding the

process. Addressing climate change is challenging, and having others to

share experiences with makes the process more comforting.

Increase Training on Disaster Risk Management- Government officials

should have further and ongoing training on dealing with more frequent

and severe climate change impacts. Practice drills and frequent cross-

departmental communication should be embedded into the training.

Government officials should be trained to use such disaster risk resources

described above and apply its results into their policies.

7.6.3 Climate Forecast and Disaster Risk Management

Vulnerabilities

Specific vulnerabilities include:

Lack of raw data climate change parameters;

Need for additional monitoring stations for SLR and rainfall patterns;

Climate modeling software and capacity building for correct and effective

usage;

Hydro-meteorological modeling.




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7.6.4 Recommendations to Strengthen Climate Forecast and

Disaster Risk Management

Climate change modelling as well as natural disaster risk forecasts have been

proven important tools to shape any preventive actions and decision-making for

the City and government officials. Considering that data collection, monitoring

and modelling have been identified challenges for the Team during the LRAP

process, several recommendations are specifically proposed here to enhance

forecasting and scenario building abilities. The Ningbo Climate Change Taskforce

should be closely involved.

Strengthen ClimateChange Modeling- The work with Ningbo

Meteorology Bureau was a starting point on climate change modeling for

Ningbo. Further education and resources should be provided so that

Ningbo Meteorology Bureau can provide a better assessment on the

climate change risks on different parts of the city, with various scenarios

and timeframes. This could include training in other research centers and

universities, attending scientific conferences, or inviting visiting scholars

to work together.

Strengthen Hydro Meteorology and Geophysical Modeling– Such type

of modeling are lacking or need to be updated. Specific software, as well

as training and resources should be provided to Municipal Departments, so

to provide a better assessment on the hydro meteorology and geophysical

risks on different parts of the city, with various scenarios and timeframes.

This could include training in other research centers and universities,

attending scientific conferences, or inviting visiting scholars to work

together.

Enhance GIS and Spatial Tools- Critical in the Spatial Assessment is

identifying the vulnerable areas to climate change. But this proved

difficult in the project, such as obtaining the maps in the suitable scale and

form. This process could be easier, and can be supported with further

spatial training and tools. This will mainly involve Ningbo Meteorology

working together with the Planning Department; the former identifying the

climate risks and the latter plotting it against development. But it will also

include other departments and wider sectors. Such spatial analysis should

be more readily understood, part of the decision-making process, utilized

by more city stakeholders, and publicly-available.

Increase Resources for Disaster Risk Management- More and better

early warning system and risks evaluation systems should be put in place.

Emergency and evacuation plans at different disaster-prone districts

should be up to date and regularly tested to react to warnings and possible

extreme climate events. Hazard monitoring and early warning services

should be further developed and strengthened to monitor right parameters,

and to generate timely and accurate warnings. For example, additional sea-

level monitoring stations and wave recorders at selected sites should be

established; meteorological and hydrological monitoring system should be

further expanded and upgraded to ensure availability of risk data and

maps. It is equally important to review existing monitoring location and




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strategically extend network of measurement stations and combine with

other appropriate data sources such as satellite data.

Develop Academic Courses on Climate Change Modeling and

Scenario Building – a specific curriculum in the Faculty of Engineering

and/or Public health and/or Meteorology should be put in place. These

courses could be designed in partnership with other Universities in

Western countries as well as in other Developing Countries, facilitating

specific networks and exchanges among researches, faculty members and

students. A feasibility study is recommended to proceed to the correct and

effective design of curricula.

7.7 Prioritized Recommendations

It is important that the City was deeply involved in the prioritization process as it

is a good way to build local capacity. They ultimately will be implementing and

running the recommendations. The priorities are based on several aspects or

considerations, such as:

Costs- resources required to initiate or construct, and maintain the

proposal. How would it be paid for and by whom? It is divided between

high, medium, and low costs for the city.

Time- time required to plan and implement. It is divided between short,

medium, and long term time frame.

Complexity- level of difficulty in planning and implementing the project.

What are the challenges to the project that should be considered? Are the

challenges easy to overcome? This is divided between easy, medium, and

difficult.

Address Climate Change- how does it address climate change impacts?

Other Benefits- are there other advantages to the project that could also

decrease city vulnerability?

Lead Party (ies) - Who are the lead actors or organizations that should be

involved in the planning and operation of the project? What kind and level

of input do we need?

Through active stakeholder engagement,

the recommendations were prioritized in

the final workshop. The top 11

recommendations were highlighted

below. In general, Ningbo recognized the

need to do additional research and

training on climate change, especially to

protect the ports and the City‟s health.

They understand the need to have a

stronger governing body, the Climate

Change Taskforce, to provide the




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leadership, direction, and management for climate change. This is part of the

broader approach to incorporate clime change into policy and decision-making.

In detail, they are:

Strengthen Climate Change Modeling (No.= 12)

Increase Research on Climate Change Impacts on Health (No.= 10 )

Determine Group Taskforce Mission and Formal Role (No.=9)

Implement Port Resilience Plan (No.=8)

Promote Greening (No.=7)

Conduct Water Pollution Control Program (No. =6)

Diversify Energy Sources (No.= 5)

Implement Agriculture Resilience Plan (No.=4)

Implement Stronger Design and Construction Standards and Codes for

New Buildings (No.=4)

Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in Vulnerable Areas (No.=4 )

Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity (No.=4)

The views of the stakeholders in implementing the recommendations are reflected

in the cost, complexity, timeframe and

relevance to address climate change, etc.

as summarized in Table 7.1.

Apart from the prioritized

recommendations, the whole set of

recommendations constitute the core

outcome in the LRAP. The metric

outlines in details the features of

implementing the recommendations, who

will work on which priority

recommendation and the challenges within the recommendation. From these, the

responsible department will have a clear understanding on the recommendations

before making plans and preparation. The leading agency should develop further

feasibility study prior to implementation. Monitoring and evaluation are suggested

to ensure the effectiveness and progress.


Report Ref | Draft 1 | June 2011


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Table 7.1: Matrix of Prioritized Recommendations

Recommendation Cost a Time

b Complexity

c Address Climate Change Other Benefits Challenges Lead Party

Increase

Research on

Climate Change

Impacts on

Health

L-M M M Higher knowledge and

awareness of climate change

impacts

Improving medical care

services

Improving medical care

capability

Defining major

related diseases

Data availability

Public Health

Bureau

Implement Port

Resilience Plan

M M-L M Enhancing capability of Port

in combating climate change

impacts

Minimizing losses

Other recommendations:

Implement petrochemical

industry resilience

Establish emergency plan,

construct coastal dikes,

improve loading and

clearance process in the port

and strengthen container

yard construction regulation

Protecting public safety

and assets

Improving modernization

of Port

Stimulating economic

development

Enhancing port

competitiveness

Identification of

extreme events

Identification of

different port

operations

Complexity of

retrofit

Forecasting of sea

level rise

Funds

Port Authority

Ningbo Port

Cooperation Ltd.

Promote

Greening

M L M Improving carbon sink

Better environment to adapt

the extreme weather

Reducing risks of floods

Improving life quality

Improving air quality

Strengthening soil

protection

Limited land

resources

Funds

Urban

Management

Bureau

Environmental

Protection Bureau


Report Ref | Draft 1 | June 2011


Page 125

Recommendation Cost a Time

b Complexity

c Address Climate Change Other Benefits Challenges Lead Party

Determine

Group Mission

and Formal Role

L S E Increasing cooperation

among departments

Setting direction for the

whole city to address climate

change

Note:

Stakeholder considered it is

the foundation to carry

forward other

recommendations shortlisted

in the table

Strengthening standard

management

Cross-

administrative

function

Difficulty in

determining the

role

Government

awareness and

acknowledgement

NDRC

Strengthen

Climate Change

Modelling

M M-L D Better understanding of

climate change

Serving as the fundamental

recommendation for further

plans, preparedness and other

actions

Expanding the knowledge

of the technical personnel

Long term

Lack of raw data

Inadequate

modelling

capability

Insufficient

resources

Meteorology

Bureau

Note: a): L-Low, M- Medium, H-High

b): S-Short, M-Medium, L-Long

c): E-Easy, M-Medium, H-Difficulty





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8 Conclusions

The Team understands that this LRAP is not sufficient to meet all the challenges in a

changing climate. However, this LRAP is a starting point for the City to prepare and

improve its resilience.

This plan enables the City of Ningbo to understand the hazards it faces and will face,

identify its most important vulnerabilities and establish priorities in terms of specific

programs to make the city and its citizens safer, the environment better and the

economy stronger. The LRAP is not a stationary plan. Rather, it is an ongoing process

that requires commitment and has the flexibility to respond to new and changing

information.

The preparation of this LRAP was challenging. The Team acknowledges spatial

analysis is a very useful tool in identifying the vulnerability spatially, whereas,

however, the analysis is confined by the availability and quality of data, which are

either confidential or unobtainable, or in low quality.1 The Team has made the best

efforts to obtain useful information with strong support from local government and

finally found the credible solution for unavailable information.

Ningbo serves as the Chinese pilot city for the World Bank Climate Resilience

program. This LRAP and its methodology are applicable to other cities when building

the resilience.

1 For instance, if the drainage system could be provided, floods forecast could be easier; given the sea

level monitoring data, sea level rise would not remain at the regional scale. Provided the natural

disaster records, the inventory of natural disaster would not be so time-consuming and be beyond

tropical cyclones.





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