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  • Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington

    Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5081

    A contribution of the Watershed and River Systems Management Program, a joint program of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation

    U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

  • Cover: Photograph titled Irrigation Columbia Basin Project, Washington. Photograph thought to have been taken in 1946 or 1947, (Photograph Number P222-100-4036, obtained with permission from the Bureau of Reclamation, accessed September 2009 at: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g5000/photolab/gallery_detail.cfm?PICIDTYPE=10026)

    http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g5000/photolab/gallery_detail.cfm?PICIDTYPE=10026

  • Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington

    By Mark C. Mastin

    A contribution of the Watershed and River Systems Management Program, a joint program of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation

    Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5081

    U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

  • U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary

    U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director

    U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2009

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    Suggested citation: Mastin, M.C., 2009, Watershed models for decision support for inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5081, 54 p.

    http://www.usgs.gov http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod http://store.usgs.gov

  • iii

    Contents

    Abstract ..........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................1

    Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................3 Database-Centered Decision Support System ................................................................................3 Modular Modeling System ..................................................................................................................4 Description of the Study Area ............................................................................................................4

    Conceptual Model of Hydrology .................................................................................................................9 Frozen Ground .......................................................................................................................................9 Evapotranspiration..............................................................................................................................11 Groundwater Flow ..............................................................................................................................12

    Regional Flow .............................................................................................................................12 Springs .........................................................................................................................................12

    Channel Gains and Losses ................................................................................................................13 Irrigation ...............................................................................................................................................18 Generalizations about the Study Area ............................................................................................18

    Simulation of Runoff ...................................................................................................................................18 Description of the Numerical Model ...............................................................................................19

    Modular Modeling System Modules Developed for the Yakima Watershed and River Systems Management Program Project ........................................................19

    New Modules .............................................................................................................................21 Construction of Models ..............................................................................................................................22

    GIS Weasel ..........................................................................................................................................22 Parameter Estimation Outside of Weasel .......................................................................................24

    Calibration and Evaluation of Numerical Model ....................................................................................27 Available Data .....................................................................................................................................27 Parameter Adjustment .......................................................................................................................28 Comparisons of Simulated and Observed Runoff ..........................................................................31

    Peak-Flow Simulations .............................................................................................................31 Mean Monthly Hydrographs ....................................................................................................34

    Model Evaluation ................................................................................................................................39 Forecast Evaluation ...................................................................................................................39 Crab Creek at Irby Record Extension .....................................................................................42

    Sources of Error ..................................................................................................................................44 Water Budget ......................................................................................................................................44

    Integrating Watershed Models Into a User Interface for Real-Time Forecasting ............................45 Opening Screen...................................................................................................................................45 Data Retrieval ......................................................................................................................................46 Time-Series Graphs ............................................................................................................................46 Single Model Runs ..............................................................................................................................47 ESP Model Runs ..................................................................................................................................47 MMS Model Runs ...............................................................................................................................50

    Summary .......................................................................................................................................................51 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................52 References Cited .........................................................................................................................................53

  • iv

    Figures Figure 1. Map showing streamflow-gaging stations, Columbia Basin Project, and

    study area boundaries in the Potholes Reservoir basin, Washington …………… 2 Figure 2. Diagram showing a database-centered Decision Support System ……………… 3 Figure 3. Diagram showing components of the Modular Modeling System ………………… 4 Figure 4. Map showing shaded relief of study area near Potholes Reservoir,

    east-central Washington ………………………………………………………… 5 Figure 5. Map showing average annual precipitation during 1961–90 in the Potholes

    Reservoir basin, Washington ……………………………………………………… 6 Figure 6. Graphs showing average monthly precipitation, and minimum and

    maximum temperatures at Ephrata Airport and Davenport, Washington, 1971 through 2000 ………………………………………………………………… 7

    Figure 7. Graph showing mean monthly discharge at two Crab Creek streamflow-gaging stations and one Rocky Ford Creek streamf