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US Flow of Funds

Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 11, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Debbie Johnson480-663-1333

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

June 11, 2020 / US Flow of Funds www.yardeni.com


Total Debt 1Nonfinancial Debt 2-3Financial Debt 4-6Total Borrowing 7Nonfinancial Borrowing 8Borrowing 9Nonfinancial Borrowing 10Corporate Finance 11-12New Issues of Corporate Securities 13Corporate Finance 14-20Mortgage Finance 21-22Consumer Finance 23-24US Households: Assets 25US Household Ratios 26US Households: Real Estate & Debt 27-29Public Finance 30-34Rest of World 35International Finance 36

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.1

20.1

40.1

60.180.1

.1

20.1

40.1

60.180.1

Q1DEBT(trillion dollars, ratio scale)

Total Debt(nsa) (75.5)Nonfinancial Debt(sa) (55.9)Financial Debt(sa) (17.6)

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

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Figure 1.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

100

200

300

400

0

100

200

300

400

Q4

US DEBT(as a percent of nominal GDP)

Debt/GDPTotal (352.2)Nonfinancial (259.7)Financial (81.9)

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

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Figure 2.

Total Debt

Page 1 / June 11, 2020 / US Flow of Funds www.yardeni.com


70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

5

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55

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0

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Q4

US DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS(trillion dollars, nsa)

Nonfinancial DebtTotal* (54.3)Total Less Treasury (35.3)Treasury (19.0)

* Includes mortgage, consumer, business, and US Treasury debt.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

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Figure 3.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

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0

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Q4

US DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS(as a percent of nominal GDP)

Nonfinancial Debt / GDPTotal* (253.6)Total Less Treasury (164.8)Treasury (88.9)

* Includes mortgage, consumer, business, and government debt.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

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Figure 4.

Nonfinancial Debt



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.2

2.2

4.2

6.2

8.2

10.212.214.216.218.220.2

.2

2.2

4.2

6.2

8.2

10.212.214.216.218.220.2

Q1DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)

US Treasury Debt (19.7)Household Debt (16.3)

Business Debt (16.8)


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Figure 5.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2220

40

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100

120

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100

120

Q1

DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS(as a percent of nominal GDP)

US Treasury Debt / GDP (91.7)

Household Debt / GDP (75.6)Business Debt / GDP (78.1)


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Figure 6.

Nonfinancial Debt



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225

10

15

20

25

30

35

5

10

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25

30

35

Q4

DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS(as a percent of total debt)

Total (22.1)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Figure 7.

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.4

2.4

4.4

6.4

8.4

10.4

12.414.416.418.420.4

.4

2.4

4.4

6.4

8.4

10.4

12.414.416.418.420.4

Q1DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)

Total Financial Debt (17.6)Total Securitized Debt* (10.3)Total Less Securitized*Debt (6.4)

* Sum of government sponsored entreprises, agency & GSE-backed mortgage pools, and ABS issuers.Source: Flow of Funds.

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Figure 8.

Financial Debt



84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250

52

54

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76

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Q4

DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS(percent)

Total Securitized Debt* /Financial Debt (61.5)

* Sum of GSE, agency & GSE-backed mortgage pools, and ABS issuers.Source: Flow of Funds.

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Figure 9.

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.1

.9

1.7

2.5

3.3

4.14.95.76.57.38.1

.1

.9

1.7

2.5

3.3

4.14.95.76.57.38.1

Q4

CREDIT MARKET DEBT OWED BY FINANCIAL SECTORS*(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)

GSE Issues (7.0)Agency & GSE-backed Mortgage Pool Securities (2.4)

Corporate Bonds Issued by Financial Sector (4.9)

* As a result of two accounting rules, FAS 166 and 167, the assets and liabilities of some special purpose entities (SPEs) have been moved onto thebalance sheets of the US chartered commercial bank, government-sponsored enterprise finance company sectors. The consolidated assets and liabilitieswere removed from the agency and GSE-backed mortgage pool sector and the issuers of asset-backed securities (ABS) sector.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

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Figure 10.

Financial Debt



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

Q4

CORPORATE BONDS OUTSTANDING(trillion dollars, nsa)

Financial Sector

Commercial Banking (0.2)ABS Issuers (1.1)


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Figure 11.

Financial Debt



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-3

-2

-1

0

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2

3

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5

-3

-2

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2

3

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5

Q4

BORROWING*(trillion dollars)

Debt (y/y change)Total (3.3)Nonfinancial (3.3)Financial (1.2)

* Yearly change in debt.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

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Figure 12.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-20

-15

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Q4

BORROWING*(as a percent of nominal GDP) Debt (y/y change)

TotalNonfinancialFinancial

* Yearly change in debt divided by 4-quarter moving average of nominal GDP.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

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Figure 13.

Total Borrowing



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-1

0

1

2

3

-1

0

1

2

3

Q4

BORROWING OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS*(trillion dollars)

Debt (y/y change)Total (2.5)Nonfederal** (1.3)US Treasury (1.2)

* Yearly change in debt.** Nonfederal equals Total minus US Treasury.


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Figure 14.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-6

-4

-2

0

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22

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22

Q4

BORROWING OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS*(as a percent of nominal GDP)

Debt (y/y change)

Nonfederal** (6.1)US Treasury (5.6)

* Yearly change in debt divided by 4-quarter moving average of nominal GDP.** Nonfederal equals total nonfinancial minus US Treasury.


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Figure 15.

Nonfinancial Borrowing



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-500

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2100

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Q1

BORROWING BY NONFINANCIAL SECTORS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

US Treasury (1436.6)Households (596.8)Business (1226.1)


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Figure 16.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-2000

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Q1

BORROWING BY FINANCIAL SECTORS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)


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Figure 17.

Borrowing



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1BORROWING BY NONFINANCIAL SECTORS(trillion dollars, saar)

Households Plus Business (3.6)US Treasury (2.7)


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Figure 18.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10

0

10

20

-10

0

10

20

Q1

BORROWING BY NONFINANCIAL SECTORS(as a percent of nominal GDP)

Households Plus Business / GDPUS Treasury / GDP


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Figure 19.

Nonfinancial Borrowing



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420

620

1220

1820

24203020

20

620

1220

1820

24203020

Q1CORPORATE CASH FLOW(ratio scale, billion dollars, saar)

Tax-Reported Depreciation*** (1926.4)

Economic Depreciation** (1954.7)

* After-tax undistributed corporate profits with IVA & CCAdj plus tax-reported depreciation.** Corporate capital consumption allowances.

*** Corporate capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

CorporateCash Flow* (2219.8)

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Figure 20.

-200

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Q1

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-450

-350

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-50

50

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250

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-350

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-50

50

150

250

Q1

INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT*(billion dollars, saar)

CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENT*(billion dollars, saar)

Tax-Reported > Economic Depreciation

Tax-Reported < Economic Depreciation

* These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current costmeasures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 21.

Corporate Finance



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200

400

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1800

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2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

Q1

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: CASH FLOW*(billion dollars, saar)

* After-tax operating retained earnings plus tax-return-based depreciation.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 22.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-700

-600

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200

300

400

500

Q1

FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: CASH FLOW*(billion dollars, saar)

* Corporate cash flow minus nonfinancial corporate cash flow.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 23.

Corporate Finance



Figure 24.

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Apr

NEW US CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

Bonds + Stocks

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

AprBonds + Stocks

Nonfinancial

Financial

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Apr

Bonds

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Apr

BondsNonfinancial

Financial

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

300

Apr

NEW US CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES

Stocks

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

Apr

StocksNonfinancial

Financial

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New Issues of Corporate Securities



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-450-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-50050100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850

-450-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-50

050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850

Q4

CORPORATE NET NEW ISSUES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Nonfinancial & FinancialCorporate Issues

Bonds & Equities (213.5)


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Figure 25.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-900

-700

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500

700

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1100

1300

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-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

Q4

CORPORATE NET NEW ISSUES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Nonfinancial & FinancialCorporate Issues

Bonds (411.5)

Equities (-198.0)


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Figure 26.

Corporate Finance



80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-1000

-900

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0

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q4

CORPORATE NET ISSUES & BANK BORROWING: NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Nonfinancial Corporations

Equities (-408.5)

Bonds (245.8)

Bank Loans (21.7)


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Figure 27.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-750

-650

-550

-450

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50

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850

950

1050

Q4

CORPORATE NET NEW ISSUES: FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Financial CorporationsTotal Bonds (165.7)ABS Bonds* (59.6)Equities (210.5)

* ABS = Asset-backed securities.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.

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Figure 28.

Corporate Finance



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-900

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100

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700

900

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100

300

500

700

900

Q4

CORPORATE EQUITIES NET ISSUES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Equity Net IssuesUS Nonfinancial & Financial Issues

Foreign Issues*

* Net purchases of foreign issues by US residents.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

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Figure 29.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

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-1000

-500

0

500

Q4

CORPORATE EQUITIES: NET PURCHASES BY HOUSEHOLDS*(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Households’ Equity Purchases:Directly Held by Households (233.6)

* Includes not only households, but also nonprofit organizations, as well as domestic hedge funds, private equity funds, and personal trusts.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

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Figure 30.

Corporate Finance



94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

-400

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0

100

200

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Q4

NET PURCHASES OF US CORPORATE EQUITIES: PENSION FUNDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Pension FundsPrivate (-115.3)State & Local (-92.9)


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Figure 31.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Q4

NET PURCHASES OF US CORPORATE EQUITIES: LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Life Insurance


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Figure 32.

Corporate Finance



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-200

0

200

400

600

800

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Q4

NET PURCHASES OF CORPORATE AND FOREIGN BONDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Rest of the World (100.1)

Institutional Investors* (196.5)

* Life insurance companies and private pension funds.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

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Figure 33.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-300

-200

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0

100

200

-300

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-100

0

100

200

Q4

NET PURCHASES OF CORPORATE AND FOREIGN BONDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Brokers and Dealers (-22.0)

Funding Corporations (0.2)


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Figure 34.

Corporate Finance



52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2240

700

1360

2020

2680

3340400046605320

40

700

1360

2020

2680

3340400046605320 Q4NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: TOTAL LIQUID ASSETS

(billion dollars, ratio scale, nsa)


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Figure 35.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2211

13

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23

25

27

29

11

13

15

17

19

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23

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27

29

Q4

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS DEBT(as a ratio of nonfinancial corporate business cash flow*)

* Profits before tax ex profit tax accruals and dividends plus capital consumption adjustment and depreciation charges plus foreign earnings retainedabroad and inventory valuation adjustment.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.

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Figure 36.

Corporate Finance



52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2220

40

60

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100

120

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100

120

Q4

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: LIQUID ASSETS / SHORT-TERM DEBT(percent)


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Figure 37.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2220

30

40

50

20

30

40

50

Q4

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: SHORT-TERM DEBT / CREDIT MARKET DEBT(percent)


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Figure 38.

Corporate Finance



81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-250

0

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Q4

HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)


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Figure 39.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-50050100150200250300350400450500550600650700750

-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-50

050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750

Q4

HOME MORTGAGE LENDING(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Federally RelatedMortgage Pools (76.9)ABS Issuers* (-13.3)

GSE** (142.4)

* ABS = Asset-Backed Securities.** GSE = Government Sponsored Enterprises including FNMA.


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Figure 40.

Mortgage Finance



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-200

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Q4

COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE LENDING(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Total


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Figure 41.

Mortgage Finance



82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-140

-120

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Apr

CONSUMER CREDIT*(billion dollars, 12-month change)

Total** (71.4)

* Includes home equity loans but not auto leases.** From 1990 on includes noninstallment credit.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

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Figure 42.

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

Mar

CONSUMER CREDIT: REVOLVING CREDIT PER HOUSEHOLD(thousand dollars, 12-month change)

RevolvingCredit (0.0)


yardeni.com

Figure 43.

Consumer Finance



91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2214

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Q1

CONSUMER CREDIT*(as a percent of Disposable Personal Income)

Consumer Credit (22.2)Includes auto leases** (23.2)Total includes auto leases andhome equity loans (24.8)

* From 1990 on includes noninstallment credit.** At finance company subsidiaries of bank holding companies, but not of retailers and banks.


yardeni.com

Figure 44.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2240

100

160

220

280

340

400

460

520

580

640

700

760

820

880

940

1000

1060

1120

1180

40

100

160

220

280

340

400

460

520

580

640

700

760

820

880

940

1000

1060

1120

1180

Q4

5/27

HOME EQUITY LOANS(billion dollars, sa)

At Commercial Banks(weekly) (309.1)

US CharteredDepository Institutions(quarterly) (383.6)

Total Home Equity Loans* (500.6)

* Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by mortgage companiesand individuals.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

yardeni.com

Figure 45.

Consumer Finance



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.2

28.2

56.2

84.2112.2140.2168.2

.2

28.2

56.2

84.2112.2140.2168.2

Q4US HOUSEHOLDS*: NET WORTH, ASSETS, & LIABILITIES(trillion dollars, ratio scale)

Assets (134.9)Net Worth (118.4)Liabilities (16.6)

* Sector includes domestic hedge funds, private equity funds, and personal trusts.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

Q4

US HOUSEHOLDS*: SELECTED ASSETS(trillion dollars)

Household AssetsCorporate Equities: Directly Held (21.1)Owners’ Equity in Household Real Estate (18.7)Equity in Noncorporate Business (13.5)

Mutual Fund Shares (9.7)Pension Entitlements (28.0)

* Sector includes domestic hedge funds, private equity funds, and personal trusts.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States, Table L.101.

yardeni.com

Figure 47.

US Households: Assets



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 244.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Q4

US HOUSEHOLDS*: NET WORTH(as a ratio of disposable personal income)

* Sector includes domestic hedge funds, private equity funds, and personal trusts.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 48.

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2215

20

25

30

35

15

20

25

30

35

Mar

MEASURES OF CONSUMER LIQUIDITY(as a percent of disposable personal income)

Consumer Credit Plus Auto Leases PlusHome Equity Loans at Banks (28.5)Consumer Credit Plus Auto Leases (26.6)

Consumer Credit (22.2)


yardeni.com

Figure 49.

US Household Ratios



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.8

5.8

10.8

15.8

20.8

25.8

30.835.8

.8

5.8

10.8

15.8

20.8

25.8

30.835.8

Q4HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE VALUE & HOME MORTGAGES*(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)

Household Real Estate*

Home MortgagesOwners’ Equity**

* Total market value of real estate held by households. All types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as secondhomes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land.

** Value of household real estate minus home mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 50.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2225

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Q4

HOUSEHOLD MORTGAGE DEBT(as a percent of value of household real estate*)

Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts.* Home mortgages plus owners’ equity in household real estate.

yardeni.com

Figure 51.

US Households: Real Estate & Debt



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2258

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

Q4

US HOUSEHOLDS: HOME MORTGAGE DEBT*(as a percent of total liabilities)

* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 52.

0246810121416182022

02468

10121416182022

Q4

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2225303540455055606570758085

25303540455055606570758085

Q4

REAL ESTATE(trillion dollars, nsa)

OWNERS’ EQUITY(as a percent of household real estate)

Owners’ Equity in Household Real Estate (18.7)

Home Mortgages* (10.6)

* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts.

yardeni.com

Figure 53.




58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 221.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

Q4

Q4

MARKET VALUE OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE

As a ratio of disposable personal incomeexcluding personal current transfer paymentsand other labor income

As a ratio ofdisposable personal income

Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 54.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Q4

Q4

HOME MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING*

As a ratio of disposable personal incomeexcluding personal current transfer paymentsand other labor income

As a ratio ofdisposable personal income

* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 55.




97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

Jul

May

MayQ4

TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING(trillion dollars, nsa)

Subject to Debt Limit

Statutory Debt Limit

Publicly HeldTreasury Securities Outstanding

Debt of Nonfinancial Domestic Sectors:US Treasury Debt

Source: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 56.

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

May

US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

Source: US Treasury Department.

yardeni.com

Figure 57.

Public Finance



86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.7

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.34.75.15.55.9

.7

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.34.75.15.55.9

MayUS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS & RECEIPTS(trillion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale)

Outlays (5.3)Receipts (3.2)

Source: US Treasury Department.

yardeni.com

Figure 58.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2412

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES & RECEIPTS(as a percent of nominal GDP)

Q1

Q1

Expenditures (23.1)

Receipts (16.9)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 59.

Public Finance



Figure 60.

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

May

US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS(yearly percent change in 12-month sum)

Total Tax Receipts

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

MayIndividual IncomeTax Receipts

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-100

0

100

200

300

-100

0

100

200

300

May

Corporate IncomeTax Receipts

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

May

yardeni.com

Social Insurance and RetirementTax Receipts

Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9.

Public Finance



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

900

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

900

Q4

US TREASURY SECURITIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Net Purchases:Household Sector (322.2)Rest of the World (180.6)


yardeni.com

Figure 61.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Q4

US TREASURY SECURITIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Net Purchases:Money Market Mutual Funds PlusBrokers and Dealers (


yardeni.com

Figure 62.

Public Finance



81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

Q4

NET ISSUES OF MUNICIPAL SECURITIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

State & LocalGovernments (8.4)


yardeni.com

Figure 63.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

100

200

300

400

0

100

200

300

400

Q4

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT FUNDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Net Acquistion ofFinancial Assets (251.7)


yardeni.com

Figure 64.

Public Finance



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Q4

REST OF THE WORLD(billion dollars, saar)

Foreign Direct Investment in US (125.3)

US Direct Investment Abroad (173.0)


yardeni.com

Figure 65.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q4

REST OF WORLD(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Direct InvestmentForeign in US (226.6)US Abroad (150.0)


yardeni.com

Figure 66.

Rest of World



89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Mar

US CAPITAL INFLOWS(billion dollars)

US Treasury Bills, Notes, & BondsPurchased by Foreigners(12-month sum) (-42.5)

Source: US Treasury.

yardeni.com

Figure 67.

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

MarMar

US CAPITAL INFLOWS(12-month sum, billion dollars)

US Treasuries Purchased by ForeignersNotes & Bonds (-31.9)Bills (-10.5)

Source: US Treasury.

yardeni.com

Figure 68.

International Finance



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