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Country Briefing:China
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 22, 2019
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Real GDP 1Industrial Production 2Electricity 3-5Manufacturing PMI 6-9Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs 10Retail Sales 11Autos 12Trade Balance 13Exports & Imports 14-16Export Shares 17Exports to 18-19Trade Balance by Regions 20Exports to China 21Railways Traffic 22Producer Price Index 23-25Consumer Price Index 26-28China vs. US Inflation 29-30Stock Market 31-32Money Growth & Inflation 33Social Finance 34-35Bank Loans 36Monetary Policy 37PBOC Balance Sheet 38Exchange Rate 39International Reserves 40-41China vs. US Monetary Indicators 42-43Industrial Production & Retail Sales 44Railway Freight Traffic 45Bank Loans 46
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q3
quarterly percent change, saar (5.2)
yearly percent change (6.0)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.comCHINA: REAL GDP
Figure 1.
Real GDP
Page 1 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202030
90
150
210
270
330
390
450
30
90
150
210
270
330
390
450
Dec
NovNovCHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION*(2005=100, sa, ratio scale)
* Value added basis.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.
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Figure 2.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Nov
CHINA: REAL GDP & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)
Real GDP (6.0)Industrial Production* (6.2)
* Value added basis.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 3.
Industrial Production
Page 2 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020600
1200
1800
2400
3000
3600
4200
4800
5400600066007200
600
1200
1800
2400
3000
3600
4200
4800
5400600066007200
Nov
CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT(100 million KWH, ratio scale)
3-Month AverageActual
Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 4.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Nov
CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT(yearly percent change)
in 12-Month Moving Average (5.7)in 3-Month Moving Average (7.1)
Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
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Figure 5.
Electricity
Page 3 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
200
300
400
500
600
700
12/20
Nov
CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT vs CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index
China Electricity Output(yearly percent changein 3-month moving average)
Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
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Figure 6.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
200
300
400
500
600
700
12/20
Nov
CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT vs CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index
China Electricity Output(yearly percent changein 12-month moving average)
Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
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Figure 7.
Electricity
Page 4 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q3
CHINA: REAL GDP & ELECTRICITY OUTPUT(yearly percent change)
Real GDP (6.0)Power Generated Output(12-ma) (5.7)
Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 6.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
Nov
CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & ELECTRICITY OUTPUT(yearly percent change in 3-ma)
Industrial Production (5.6)Electricity Output (7.1)
Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
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Figure 7.
Electricity
Page 5 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202090
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Nov
CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)
M-PMI Composite (50.2)
Leading Index (99.2)
Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 8.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202046
48
50
52
54
56
46
48
50
52
54
56
Nov
CHINA OFFICIAL MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS’ INDEX& MAJOR COMPONENTS*(sa) Composite (50.2)
New Orders (51.3)Employment (47.3)Output (52.6)
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in activity.Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 9.
Manufacturing PMI
Page 6 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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Figure 10.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202035
40
45
50
55
60
65
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Nov
CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)
PMI Composite (50.2)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202030
40
50
60
70
30
40
50
60
70
Nov
Output (52.6)New Orders (51.3)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202020
30
40
50
60
70
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nov
New Orders (51.3)Export Orders (48.8)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-5
0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15
Nov
New Orders minusExport Orders (2.5)
Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing, OECD, and Haver Analytics.
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Manufacturing PMI
Page 7 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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Figure 11.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202030
40
50
60
70
30
40
50
60
70
Nov
CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)
Imports (49.8)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202040
45
50
55
40
45
50
55
Nov
Employment (47.3)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202035
40
45
50
55
60
35
40
45
50
55
60
Nov
Stocks of Orders/Purchases (44.9)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202030
40
50
60
70
30
40
50
60
70
Nov
Quantity ofPurchases (51.0)
Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing/Haver Analytics.
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Manufacturing PMI
Page 8 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 12.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202046
48
50
52
54
46
48
50
52
54
Nov
CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)
Suppliers’DeliveryTimes (50.5)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202040
45
50
55
40
45
50
55
Nov
Stock of FinishedGoods (46.4)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202035
40
45
50
55
35
40
45
50
55
Nov
Stock of RawMaterials (47.8)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202020
30
40
50
60
70
80
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nov
Purchase Price (49.0)
Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing/Haver Analytics.
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Manufacturing PMI
Page 9 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202046
48
50
52
54
46
48
50
52
54
Nov
CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES
Final (51.8)
Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 13.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202050
55
60
65
50
55
60
65
Nov
CHINA: NON-MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)
Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics
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Figure 14.
Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs
Page 10 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
NovCHINA: RETAIL SALES(billion yuan, nsa)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov
CHINA: RETAIL SALES(yearly percent change)
Total (8.0)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
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Figure 16.
Retail Sales
Page 11 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20201.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
Nov
CHINA: AUTOMOBILE SALES & PRODUCTION(million units, nsa)
Sales (2.5)Production (2.6)
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
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Figure 17.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202017
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Nov
CHINA: AUTOMOBILE SALES & PRODUCTION(12-month sum, million units)
Sales (25.8)Production (25.5)
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
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Figure 18.
Autos
Page 12 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE(billion dollars, saar)
yardeni.com
Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
Figure 19.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE(billion dollars, 12-month sum)
Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
yard
eni.c
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Figure 20.
Trade Balance
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-50
0
50
100
-50
0
50
100
Nov
CHINA MERCHANDISE TRADE*(yearly percent change)
Imports (0.7)Exports (-1.4)
* Excluding Hong Kong.Source: China Customs/Haver Analytics.
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Figure 21.
Exports & Imports
Page 14 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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Figure 26.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20500
900
1300
1700
2100
2500
2900
NovCHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE*(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
TotalImportsExports
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020
60
100
140
180
220260300340380
NovTelecommunication &Sound RecordingEquipment
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20180
330
480
630
780
930
1080
12301380
NovMachinery &Transport Equipment
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010.5
30.5
50.5
70.5
90.5
110.5
Nov
Professional & ScientificInstruments & Apparatus
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2060
135
210
285
360
435
510585
Nov
Electrical Machinery,Apparatus, & Appliances
* Excluding Hong Kong. Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2012
32
52
72
92
112
132
Nov
Iron & Steel
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Exports & Imports
Page 15 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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Figure 27.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2038
88
138
188
238
288
338
388
438488538588
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
With USExportsImports
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2060
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Nov
With JapanExportsImports
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
NovWith EUExportsImports
Source: China Customs/Haver Analytics.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Nov
With Rest of WorldExportsImports
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Exports & Imports
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 214
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(as percent of total exports)
To United States (15.5)To Japan (5.6)To European Union (16.4)
Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2135
40
45
50
55
60
65
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(as percent of total exports)
To Rest of World* (62.4)
* Excludes the US, Japan, and European Union exports.Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 29.
Export Shares
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2030
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO US & US M-PMI
Chinese Exports to US(yearly percent change in 3-ma)
US M-PMI(50+=expansion, sa)
Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2030
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO EU & EU M-PMI
Chinese Exports to EU(yearly percent change in 3-ma)
EU M-PMI(50+=expansion, sa)
Source: China Customs RBS and Markit.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
Exports to
Page 18 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO JAPAN(yearly percent change)
Source: China Customs.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO REST OF WORLD*(yearly percent change in 3-ma)
* Exports excluding US, EU, and Japan.Source: China Customs.
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Figure 33.
Exports to
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Nov
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE BY REGIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)
US (301.3)EU (151.4)
yardeni.com
Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
Figure 34.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-200
-100
0
100
200
-200
-100
0
100
200
Nov
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE BY REGIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)
With Rest of World (3.9)Japan (-25.7)
yardeni.com
Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
Figure 35.
Trade Balance by Regions
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Oct
EXPORTS TO CHINA: US, EUROZONE + UK, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, & AUSTRALIA(billion dollars, 12-month sum)
US (105.4)Eurozone + UK (222.7)Japan (134.7)South Korea (135.9)Australia (101.4)
Source: Bureau of the Census and China Customs.
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Figure 36.
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20
0
20
40
60
-20
0
20
40
60
Oct
EXPORTS TO CHINA: US, EUROZONE + UK, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, & AUSTRALIA(yearly percent change)
Source: Bureau of the Census and China Customs.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
Exports to China
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20201.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
NovCHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC(100 million tons)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Nov
CHINA: RAILWAYS PASSENGER TRAFFIC(100 million persons)
12-Month Moving AverageActual
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
Railways Traffic
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Nov
Nov
CHINA: CPI & PPI(yearly percent change)
CPI (4.5)PPI: TotalIndustrial Products (-1.4)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 40.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Nov
CHINA: RAW MATERIALS & MANUFACTURING PPI(yearly percent change)
Raw Materials (-5.0)Manufacturing (-1.6)
yardeni.com
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
Figure 41.
Producer Price Index
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Mar
CHINA: LIGHT & HEAVY INDUSTRY PPI(yearly percent change)
Heavy Industry (-5.7)Light Industry (-0.9)
yardeni.com
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
Figure 42.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Nov
CHINA: RAW MATERIALS PPI(yearly percent change)
Chemical (0.3)Coal (-2.8)Ferrous Metals (8.3)Nonferrous Metals (3.2)
yardeni.com
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
Figure 43.
Producer Price Index
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98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Nov
CHINA PPI: CONSUMER GOODS(yearly percent change)
Durable Goods (-2.1)Daily-Use Articles (0.1)
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Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
Figure 44.
Producer Price Index
Page 25 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 45.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Nov
CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Total (4.5)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Nov
Excluding Food (1.0)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
NovConsumer Goods (6.5)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
NovServices (1.2)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Consumer Price Index
Page 26 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 46.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Nov
CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Fuel & Power (-5.8)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Nov
Medicine, Medical Care &Personal Articles (2.0)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
NovClothing (1.1)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Nov
Transportation &Communication (-2.8)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Nov
Housing (0.4)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Nov
Recreation, Education &Cultural Services (1.7)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
Nov
Household Facilities,Articles & RepairServices (0.4)
Source: Haver Analytics.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-2
0
2
4
6
DecTobacco &Liquor Products (3.9)
yardeni.com
Consumer Price Index
Page 27 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 47.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
0
10
20
30
40
Nov
CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Food (19.1)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nov
Fresh Vegetables (3.9)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
0
20
40
60
80Nov
Meat, Poultry &RelatedProducts (74.5)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nov
Fresh Fruits (-6.8)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
0
20
40
60
Nov
Grain (0.7)
Source: Haver Analytics.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov
Eggs (10.1)
yardeni.com
Consumer Price Index
Page 28 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Nov
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
US (2.0)China (4.5)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Nov
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: FOOD(yearly percent change)
China: Food (19.1)US: Food at Home (1.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 49.
China vs. US Inflation
Page 29 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Nov
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD(yearly percent change)
US (2.1)China (1.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 50.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Nov
PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES(yearly percent change)
US: Finished Goods (1.1)China: Total Industrial Products (-1.4)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 51.
China vs. US Inflation
Page 30 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
12/20
CHINA: SHANGHAI-SHENZHEN 300(12/31/2004=1000)
Source: Haver Analytics.200-day moving average.
yardeni.com
Figure 52.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202020
40
60
80
100
120
20
40
60
80
100
120
12/20
CHINA: MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEX(yuan, December 31, 1992=100)
200-day moving average.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
yardeni.com
Figure 53.
Stock Market
Page 31 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020400
600
800
1000
1200
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
12/20
12/20
CHINA: STOCK MARKET & CRB METALS
MSCI Share Price Index(Yuan, December 31, 1992=100)
CRB Metals(1967=100)
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International, Commodity Research Bureau, and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 54.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020100
200
300
400
500
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
12/20
12/20
CHINA: STOCK MARKET & COPPER PRICE
MSCI Share Price Index(yuan, December 31, 1992=100)
Copper Price*(cents per pound)
* Nearby futures contract.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 55.
Stock Market
Page 32 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
NovNov
CHINA: M1 & CPI(yearly percent change)
Consumer Price Index (4.5)M1*(pushed ahead 12 months) (3.5)
* In yuan.Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 56.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Nov
Nov
CHINA: M2 & CPI(yearly percent change)
Consumer Price Index (4.5)M2*(pushed ahead 12 months) (8.2)
* In yuan.Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 57.
Money Growth & Inflation
Page 33 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Nov
CHINA: TOTAL SOCIAL FINANCING(trillion yuan)
Source: Peoples Bank of China.
yardeni.com
Figure 58.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-200
0
200
400
600
800
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Nov
CHINA: TOTAL SOCIAL FINANCING(billion US dollars)
Source: Peoples Bank of China.
yardeni.com
Figure 59.
Social Finance
Page 34 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25Nov
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
Nov
CHINA SOCIAL FINANCING(trillion yuan, 12-month sum)
(trillion US dollars, 12-month sum)
Total in Yuan (22.9)
Total In US Dollars (3.3)
Source: Peoples Bank of China/Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 60.
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
Nov
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.0
.4
.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
.0
.4
.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
Nov
CHINA: BANK LOANS(trillion yuan, 12-month sum)
(trillion US dollars, 12-month sum)
Bank Loansin Yuan (16.7)
Bank Loansin US Dollars (2.4)
Source: People’s Bank of China.
yardeni.com
Figure 61.
Social Finance
Page 35 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Nov
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Nov
CHINA: COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS(monthly change in billions)
in yuan (1388.0)
in dollars (197.8)
Source: People’s Bank of China.
yardeni.com
Figure 62.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-250
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
-250
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
Nov
CHINA(monthly change in 3-month average, billion yuan)
Bank Loans
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 63.
Bank Loans
Page 36 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
12/20
CHINA REQUIRED RESERVE RATIOS*(percent)
Required Reserve RatiosLarge Depository Institutions (13.0)Small/Medium Depository Institutions (11.0)
* The PBOC announced a change in the Required Reserve Ratios in two steps and specified that it would drop 0.5% effective January 15, 2019 and todrop another 0.5% effective January 25, 2019. The rates were updated accordingly into the future.Source: People’s Bank of China.
yardeni.com
Figure 64.
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 222
4
6
8
10
12
14
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Nov
CHINA: PRIME LENDING RATE(percent)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 65.
Monetary Policy
Page 37 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.1
.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.63.13.64.14.65.15.66.1
.1
.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.63.13.64.14.65.15.66.1
NovPBOC ASSETS(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
Total Assets (5.2)Foreign Exchange Assets (3.0)Nongold International ReservesHeld by China (IMF data) (3.1)
Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.
yardeni.com
Figure 66.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202035
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Nov
PBOC ASSETS(percent)
Foreign Exchange Held/Total PBOC Assets
Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.
yardeni.com
Figure 67.
PBOC Balance Sheet
Page 38 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208.6
8.4
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
8.6
8.4
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
12/20
CHINA: FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE(yuan/$)
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
yardeni.com
Figure 68.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
210
410
610
8101010121014101610
10
210
410
610
8101010121014101610
OctMAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF US TREASURY SECURITIES(billion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
China + Hong KongChinaHong Kong
Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs.
yardeni.com
Figure 69.
Exchange Rate
Page 39 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Nov
Oct
CHINA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, nsa)
Non-Gold International Reserves (IMF)Holdings of US Treasury Securities*
Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund.* Includes private and official accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 70.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-650
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
-650
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
Nov
CHINA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, yearly change)
Non-Gold International Reserves (IMF)Holdings of US Treasury Securities*
Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund.* Includes private and official accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 71.
International Reserves
Page 40 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Nov
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars)
Merchandise Trade Surplus or Deficit(12-month sum)Non-Gold International Reserves(12-month change)
Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 72.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-1300
-1200
-1100
-1000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
-1300
-1200
-1100
-1000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Nov
CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*(billion dollars)
* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit).Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 73.
International Reserves
Page 41 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 74.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Nov
BANK LOANS(trillion US dollars)
ChinaUS
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Nov
Nov
CENTRAL BANK ACCOUNTS(trillion US dollars)
China’s Total AssetsUS Fed’s Total Assets
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China.
yardeni.com
China vs. US Monetary Indicators
Page 42 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 75.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nov
CHINA: BANK LOANS(as a percent of US Bank Loans)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 202050
100
150
200
250
300
350
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Nov
TOTAL ASSETS OF PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA(as a percent of US Fed’s Total Assets)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China.
yardeni.com
China vs. US Monetary Indicators
Page 43 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Nov
Nov
CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Industrial Production* (6.3)PPI: TotalIndustrial Products (-1.4)
* Value added basis.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 76.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov
CHINA: RETAIL SALES(yearly percent change)
Total (8.0)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 77.
Industrial Production & Retail Sales
Page 44 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
3900
4100
4300
4500
4700
4900
5100
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
Nov
Nov
CHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC & IMPORTS PLUS EXPORTS
Railways Freight Traffic(100 million tons)
Imports Plus Exports(billion dollars, saar)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs, and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 78.
Railway Freight Traffic
Page 45 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
10
20
30
0
10
20
30
Nov
Nov
BANK LOANS: CHINA & US(trillion US dollars)
China (nsa) (21.7)US (sa) (10.0)
Source: People’s Bank of China.
yardeni.com
Figure 79.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nov
CHINA: BANK LOANS(as a percent of US Bank Loans)
Source: People’s Bank of China.
yardeni.com
Figure 80.
Bank Loans
Page 46 / December 22, 2019 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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