us economic indicators: gdp (nominal & real) economic indicators: gdp (nominal & real)...

US Economic Indicators:GDP (Nominal & Real)

Yardeni Research, Inc.

April 27, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

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Mali Quintana480-664-1333

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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

April 27, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.yardeni.com


GDP Levels: Nominal & Real 3GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real 4GDP ex-Government 5GDP & GNP 6-7GDP Components 8Equipment & Intellectual Property 9Real US Consumer Spending 10Real Capital Spending 11-12Real Inventories 13Real Trade 14Exports & Imports 15-16Real Government 17Contributions to GDP Growth 18-20Ratios 21

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.2

2.2

4.2

6.2

8.2

10.212.214.216.218.220.222.2

.2

2.2

4.2

6.2

8.2

10.212.214.216.218.220.222.2

Q1NOMINAL GDP(trillions dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 1.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 221.5

3.5

5.5

7.5

9.5

11.5

13.5

15.5

17.519.5

1.5

3.5

5.5

7.5

9.5

11.5

13.5

15.5

17.519.5

Q1REAL GDP(trillion 2009 dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 2.

GDP Levels: Nominal & Real

/ April 27, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.yardeni.com


48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

US NOMINAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Q1

Total (4.8)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 3.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

US REAL GDP GROWTH & 2% "STALL SPEED"(yearly percent change)

Q1

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Dotted line is 2% "stall speed."Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 4.

GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

Q1

REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING(trillion 2009 dollars, saar)

Real GDP excludingTotal Government Spending

Real GDP


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Figure 5.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q1

US REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING(yearly percent change)

Real GDP excludingTotal Government Spending (3.2)

Real GDP (2.9)


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Figure 6.

GDP ex-Government



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1

REAL GDP & FINAL SALES(yearly percent change)

Real GDP (2.9)

Real Final Sales toDomestic Purchasers (2.7)


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Figure 7.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

5000

10000

15000

20000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Q1

REAL GDP(billion 2009 dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Real GDP (17385.8)

Real GNP (17469.2)


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Figure 8.

GDP & GNP



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

REAL GDP& Q1 SEASONAL WEAKNESS

(quarterly percent change, saar)

Q1

Note: Blue shaded areas denote first quarter of each year.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 9.

GDP & GNP



Figure 10.

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225000

7000

9000

11000

13000

Q1

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(billion 2009 dollars, saar)

Total

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

Q1

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

Equipment

Intellectual PropertyProducts

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 221500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Q1

PERSONAL CONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURES

Total Goods

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Q1

NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT:STRUCTURES

Total Structures

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 223000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Q1

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

Services

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Q1

Q1

TRADE

Imports

Exports

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22200

400

600

800

1000

Q1

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT


90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

Q1

GOVERNMENT SPENDING

State &Local

Federal

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GDP Components



Figure 11.

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

100

200

300

400

500

Q1

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIALINVESTMENT(billion 2009 dollars, saar)

Information Processing& Equipment

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Q1

Intellectural PropertyProducts

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Q1

Industrial Equipment

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Q1

Software

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q1

TransportationEquipment

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

Q1

Research &Development

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2290

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

Q1

OtherEquipment


90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2230

40

50

60

70

80

90

Q1

Entertainment, Literary& Artistic Originals

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Equipment & Intellectual Property



Figure 12.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Feb

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Total

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Feb

Durables

Nondurables

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Feb

Services


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Real US Consumer Spending



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Q1

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 13.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

Q1

NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Structures

Equipment

Intellectual PropertyProducts


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Figure 14.

Real Capital Spending



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

0

10

20

30

40

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Q1

NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Intellectual Property Products:Software

Research & Development

Entertainment, Literary& Artistic Origins


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Figure 15.

Real Capital Spending



Figure 16.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Q1

INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(billion 2009 dollars, saar)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Q1

MANUFACTURING

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-100

-50

0

50

100

-100

-50

0

50

100

Q1

WHOLESALE

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

Q1

RETAIL EX AUTOS

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

Q1

RETAIL AUTOS


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Real Inventories



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Q1

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP(billion 2009 dollars, saar)


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Figure 17.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Q1

EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Exports

Imports


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Figure 18.

Real Trade



96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

Q1

US: EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP(billions of 2009 dollars, saar)

ExportsImports


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Figure 19.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

Mar

TRADE DEFICIT(billion dollars, saar)

Total

Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 20.

Exports & Imports



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

Mar

EXPORTS(billion dollars, saar)

Total

Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil


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Figure 21.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

Mar

IMPORTS(billion dollars, saar)

Total

Ex Petroleum& Crude Oil


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Figure 22.

Exports & Imports



Figure 23.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

Q1

TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN REAL GDP(yearly percent change)

Total (1.2)

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-10

0

10

20

-10

0

10

20

Q1

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(yearly percent change)

Federal (2.0)

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

Q1

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(yearly percent change)

State & Local (0.6)


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Real Government



Figure 24.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q1

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:(contribution to real GDP change)

Total (0.7)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q1

Durable Goods (-0.3)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-2

0

2

4

-2

0

2

4

Q1

Nondurable Goods (0.0)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1

Services (1.0)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Contributions to GDP Growth



Figure 25.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q1

REAL RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT(contribution to real GDP change) Total (0.0)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q1

Nonresidential Investment (0.8)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Q1

Structures (0.3)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-4

-2

0

2

4

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q1

Equipment & Software (0.3)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

Q1

Change In Nonfarm Inventories (0.5)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 26.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Q1

NET EXPORT OF GOODS & SERVICES(contribution to real GDP change) Total (0.2)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q1

Exports ofGoods & Services (0.6)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

Q1

Imports ofGoods & Services (-0.4)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q1

Federal GovernmentSpending (0.1)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

Q1

State & LocalGovernment Spending (0.1)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2255

60

65

70

55

60

65

70

Q1PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(as a percent of nominal GDP)


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Figure 27.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2212

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

Q4

REVENUES & EXPENDITURES


Federal Revenues(as a percent of nominal GDP)

Federal Expenditures(as a percent of nominal GDP)

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Figure 28.

Ratios



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