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TYNDP 2013-2022 Presentation of the concept
Olivier Lebois
Senior Adviser, System Development
5th TYNDP Workshop – Brussels – 20 June 2012
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Regulatory requirements
Supply adequacy outlook > Check that a reasonable range of demand scenarios may be covered by potential supply
scenarios
Assessment of the resilience of the system > European gas infrastructures should enable a supply adequacy in every country and
under a large range of situations
> Such assessment is based on the modelling of the European gas system
Consistence with regional and national plans > Consistence in scenarios and cases
> Comparable results
“Energy system wide analysis” is upcoming > Future Energy Infrastructure Guidelines could reinforce the role of ENTSOG TYNDP in
measuring the impact of infrastructure projects on gas system resilience
> Change in assessment details but not in its nature
Evolution based on stakeholders’ feedback
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Public consultation & ACER’s opinion on TYNDP 2011-2020 > Most stakeholders together with ACER have acknowledged the big improvements of
the TYNDP 2011-2020 compared to the pilot version
> Main improvements expected in:
Demand analysis
Market integration assessment
Stakeholders’ involvement
Stakeholder Joint Working Sessions > 7 sessions organized between January and May this year around demand, supply,
infrastructure projects, security of supply and market integration
> Evolution from a common understanding of current TYNDP to a more elaborated concept (scenarios, cases, methodologies, indicators, edition…)
Bilateral talks > Help stakeholders to first understand TYNDP big picture
> Best solution for very detailed points or confidential issues
Resulting concept
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Confirmation of TYNDP 2011-2020 directions > As in current TYNDP, assessment of infrastructure resilience in a highly uncertain
environment will be based on a sensitivity study
> Methodological evolution should prove the robustness of previous TYNDP results
Addressing the 3 pillars of European energy policy > In addition to security of supply and market integration, sustainability will be first
approach through gas demand breakdown
Definition of the spectrum of situations to be covered > Definition of assessment surface through scenarios and cases selection
Methodology and indicators > Definition of assessment depth through indicators
TYNDP process
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TYNDP 2011-2020 Feedback: - Public consultation - ACER’s opinion - 3rd & 4th TYNDP Workshops - 7 Stakeholder Joint Working Sessions
TYNDP 2013-2022 concept presented today
Data collection
Scenarios edition
Cases edition
Supply adequacy outlook (European level)
Country & Project profiles
Modelling
Overall analysis &
final edition
Approval process before public release
Report structure
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Aggregated supply adequacy outlook > Demand scenarios
> Supply scenarios
European gas infrastructure > Infrastructure scenarios translated into network-market topology
Infrastructure assessment > Definition of cases and methodologies
> Historical background of the Reference Case
> Investment gap identification
> Indicators assessing the completion of the 3 pillars of European energy policy
Annexes > Detailed country and project profiles
> Input and output data from the assessment
Definition of the surface to be explored
Extension of the scenario-based approach > Previous scenarios have to be updated according latest developments and
complemented with additional ones to enable further assessment
Striking the right balance > Scenarios defining the envelop of the cone have to stress the infrastructures still being
within a realistic range in order not to undermine gap identification and indicators
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Country & Infrastructure project profiles
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Country profiles > Main figures on national gas market
> Overview of existing infrastructures
Infrastructure project profiles > Most comprehensive database of European gas infrastructure projects
Pipes, UGS and LNG
Project promoters: TSOs and third parties
Broader than EU scope
Cross-border use
> General information on projects including detailed overview of their timeline
> Identification of changes since last edition
> Basic information for modeling purpose
A dual market/network topology
12 Model built on entry/exit zone as the basic block in order to ensure consistence
with TSO commercial products
Definition of scenarios and cases
Supply and demand cases derived from scenarios > They are developed in parallel and will benefit from the work carried out by
ENTSOG since last edition (literature, historical database, experience…)
Infrastructure clustering > Infrastructure project timelines differ widely depending on project type and
countries then clustering used for modelling will remain based on:
2 scenarios: “existing infra. + FID” & “Existing infra. + FID + non-FID”
3 cases: 2013, 2017 & 2022
> More detailed information on project status will be provided through a global chart
Events > Slight evolution in the definition of disruptions (especially technical ones) and UGS
low deliverability in comparison with TYNDP 2011-2020
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The 200 cases of TYNDP 2013-2022 defined the surface on which European gas infrastructure will be assessed
A little bit of historical background
Inform the Past period > Past Period for TYNDP 2013-2022 is the 3-year period between 2009 and 2011
> This period is used as an input for the definition of import supply shares of the Reference Cases
Provide background to the gap identification and indicators > Information on the Past Period will concern:
Demand level
Supply by source and route
> Such information should help the reader to analyze deviation between Reference Case and extreme scenarios/cases of the sensitivity study
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Investment gaps & Indicators
Gap identification based on Remaining Flexibility > Received feedback confirmed the approach (methodology and thresholds)
> Report structure should ease result interpretation (gaps & proposed projects)
Main improvement related to diversification indexes > Most indicators cover both Security of Supply and Market Integration
> Diversification of sources and routes are measurable under a supply/infrastructure perspective
> Source influence will be considered under various flow patterns
> Consideration of LNG embedded diversification
Tricky interpretation > Indicators are all linked to the considered scenarios and cases
> The most robust interpretation is in the evolution of the indicators
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Process timeline
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> Since 4th TYNDP WS last September, half of the process has been used to define the concept
> A robust and stable concept will enable ENTSOG to collect data and draft the report efficiently
> Communication on concept should help the future readers
ENTSOG TYNDP 2013-2022 ENTSOG TYNDP 2013-2022TYNDP Concept S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Report edition J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
Launch of TYNDP 2013-2022 process Modelling
TYNDP Workshop Simulation
Internal preparation Result analysis
SJWS Macro-analysis
S&D, SoS, Mkt Int, Infra & Model Country profiles
Concept approval Infrastructure projects
INV WG opinion Supply-demand balance
Board approval Report editing
Concept presentation Layout and structure definition
TYNDP Workshop Report consistence monitoring
Data collection process S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Release process and consultation J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
Infrastructure projects Release process
Data collection process INV WG opinion
Data checking Board approval & GA approval
Existing infrastructure and demand Public release
Data collection process Public consultation
Data checking Public consultation
Supply TYNDP follow-up workshop
Data investigation Responses analysis
Scenario and case generation Board approval
Scenario and case generation Formal submission to ACER
2011 2012 2012 2013
Next steps
Data collection process > All data would have to be collected by mid-September then checked by the end of
September
> Internal ENTSOG process for demand, supply and TSOs’ projects
> Third-party infrastructure project collection to start now
Macro-analysis and simulations > Analysis of demand and supply at European level
> Modelling of cases and result analysis
> Report drafting will focus on the clarity of the results
Report edition and approval > Major report requiring extensive approval process
> Targeted public release for February 2013 opening a 3-month formal consultation period before submission to the ACER
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Summary on the general concept
Should prove the robustness of previous report > Potential changes in the results should derived rather from the evolution of
considered scenarios than methodological improvement
> Methodological improvements aim at providing more details and confidence to the readers
> Scenarios/cases and indicators should ensure comparability with previous edition and improve robustness
The challenges for ENTSOG in developing the TYNDP > Some expectations exceed the scope of the report and are rather related to the
impact of new business rules implementation (e.g. Network Codes)
> The huge variety of stakeholders leads sometimes to contradictory expectations
> Ability to provide data beyond TSOs’ remit or pragmatic feedback is often lower than expectations
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TYNDP aims at providing meaningful information to decision-makers and not at central planning of European infrastructures
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May your feedback be with us
Olivier Lebois, Senior adviser, System Development ENTSOG -- European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas Av. De Cortenbergh 100, B-1000 Brussels EML: [email protected] T: + 32 2 894 5105 WWW: www.entsog.eu