tyndp 2020 scenario report – final report, june 2020 · 2020-07-02 · 4 // entso-e // entsog...
TRANSCRIPT
European Network ofTransmission System Operators
for Electricity
Energy
Biomethane
GHG
Beyond
Paris
COP21
CO2
Climate Targets
2050NECP
Net-zero
Bio-energy
WindSolar
Hydro
Hydrogen
Methane
Carbon Capture
Europe
Power-to-gas
Sector coupling
Decarbonised economy
Renewable energy
Distributed Energy
Carbon budget
Electricity
Hybrid System
Gas
Global Ambition
TYNDP 2020SCENARIO REPORT
National Trends
Scenarios
Contents
Foreword 3
1 Introduction 4
2 Purpose of the scenario report 6
3 Highlights 8
4 Special Focus: Pathways towards a decarbonised economy 94.1 NationalTrends–thecentralpolicyscenarioalignedwithdraftNECPs 94.2 COP21scenarios–acarbonbudgetapproach 104.3 Sector-Coupling–anenablerfor( full )decarbonisation 12
5 Scenario description and storylines 13
6 Scenario Results 176.1 Demand 186.2 Supply 256.3 SectorCoupling:CapacityandGenerationforP2GandP2L 336.4 ReductioninoverallEU28CO₂Emissionsandnecessarymeasures 34
7 Electricity Costs 37
8 Benchmarking 408.1 FinalElectricityDemand 418.2 Gasdemand 438.3 Renewablegassupply 458.4 Energyimports 468.5 CarbonCaptureandStorage 478.6 Conclusion 47
9 Fuel Commodities and Carbon Prices 48
10 Stakeholder feedback and how it shaped the scenarios 4910.1 StorylineConsultation 5110.2 DraftScenarioReportConsultation 53
11 Improvements in 2020 Scenarios 5511.1 Moresustainability-orientedScenarios( carbonbudget ) 5611.2 TotalEnergyScenarios( Top-down ) 5611.3 ElectricityDemand 5611.4 GasDemand 5711.5 ElectricityGeneration 5711.6 GasSupply 5811.7 P2GandP2L 5811.8 DataVisualisationPlatform 58
12 Next Steps 59
Glossary 60
List of Figures & Tables 62
Imprint 63
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 3
We are delighted to present to you the electricity and gas joint Scenario Report,
thesecondreportofitskindtoinvolveENTSO-EandENTSOGworkingcloselytogethertodevelopthreescenariosforEurope.Scenarioworkisthefirstimportantsteptocapturetheinteractionsbetweenthegasandelectricitysystemsandisthereforeparamounttodeliv-erthebestassessmentoftheinfrastructureinahybridsystem.ThejointworkalsoprovidesabasistoallowassessmentfortheEuropeanCommission’sProjectsofCommonInterest(PCI)listforenergy,asENTSOGandENTSO-EprogresstodeveloptheirTen-YearNetworkDevelopmentPlans(TYNDPs).
Theoutcomesoftheworkpresented, illustratestheuniquepositionofthegasandelectricityTSOstoprovidequantitativeandqualitativeoutput:Intotalalmost90TSOs,coveringmorethan35countries,contributedtotheprocess.ThecombinedexpertiseandmodellingcapabilitiesenabledENTSO-EandENTSOG’sjointworkinggrouptobuildasetofambitiousandtechnicallyrobustscenarios.
Stakeholdercollaborationandfeedbackhasbeenanimmenselyimportantelementoftheprocessandwillcontinuetobeinfutureeditions.ThepublicationofthedraftScenarioReporton12November2019wasfollowedbyanexternalStakeholderWorkshopon5Decemberandanextensivepublicconsultation.ENTSOGandENTSO-EhavefinalisedtheirScenarioReportconsideringthefeedbackandrecommendationsofmorethan40externalstakeholders.
AcoreelementofENTSO-EandENTSOG’sscenariobuild-ingprocesshasbeentheuseofsupplyanddemanddatacollectedfrombothgasandelectricityTSOstobuildbot-tom-upscenarios.ThisapproachisusedfortheNational TrendsScenario,thecentralpolicyscenarioofthisreport,recognisingnationalandEUclimatetargets,notablytheNationalEnergyandClimatePlans(NECPs).Inviewofthe1.5°CtargetoftheParisAgreement,ENTSOshavealsodevelopedtheGlobal AmbitionandDistributed Energy Scenariosusingatop-downapproachwithafull-energyperspective.
AsENTSO-EandENTSOGlooktothefuture,itisevidentthatinnovation,integrationandefficiencyarekeytomeetingEuropeanenergyconsumers’needs,whilstalsoachievingEUdecarbonisationgoals.Bothgasandelectricitynetworksconnectcountriesandleadtoregionalandpan-Europeansolidarityandeconomiesofscale,whileensuringelectricityandgasaredeliveredreliablytocustomersthroughouttheyear,includingpeakdemandsituations.Bothnetworksplayakeyroleinsupportingtheuptakeofnewtechnologiesandmeetingdecarbonisationchallenges.Energyconversionprojectsmustprogress:Power-to-Gas,forexample,allowselectricityfromrenew-ablestobetransformedintorenewablegases,tobestoredandtransportedviathegasinfrastructure.
Integrationoftheelectricityandgassectorcanoptimisetheassessmentandusageofbothgrids,whilstcontinuingtomeettheEuropeanenergypolicyobjectivesofsustainability,securityofsupplyandcompetitiveness.Ahybridenergyinfrastructure–consistingofasystemofinterconnectedelectricityandgassystems–ascross-borderenergycarrierswillresultinflexibility,storageandsecurityofsupply.
Theintegrityofthenetworkdevelopmentprocessisreliantonacomprehensive,reliableandcontrastedsetofpossibleenergyfutures–thecollaborativeeffortsofENTSO-EandENTSOG,energyindustries,NGOs,NationalRegulatoryAuthoritiesandMemberStateshaveshownthecommit-menttoensurethisisthecase.ThedevelopmentoftheScenariosoutlinedinthisreportwillallowtheTYNDPstoperformasoundassessmentofEuropeaninfrastruc-turerequirements.WelookforwardtoworkingwithyouagainaswefollowthenextimportantstepsintheTYNDPprocess.
Foreword
Jan Ingwersen General Director ENTSOG
Laurent Schmitt Secretary-General ENTSO-E
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What is this report about?
TheTYNDP2020FinalScenarioReportdescribespossibleEuropeanenergyfuturesupto2050.Scenarios are not forecasts;theysetoutarangeofpossiblefuturesusedbytheENTSO-EandENTSOGtotestfutureelectricityandgasinfrastructureneedsandprojects.Thescenariosare
ambitiousastheydeliveralowcarbonenergysystemforEuropeby2050.ENTSO-EandENTSOGhavedevelopedcrediblescenariosthatareguidedbytechnicallysoundpathways,whilereflectingcountrybycountryspecifics,sothatapanEuropeanlowcarbonfutureisachieved.
Forward-looking scenarios to study the future of gas and electricity
Regulation( EU )347/2013requiresthattheENTSO-EandENTSOGusescenariosfortheirrespectiveTen-YearNetworkDevelopmentPlans( TYNDPs )2020.ENTSO-EusescenariostoassesselectricitysecurityofsupplyfortheENTSO-EMid-TermAdequacyForecast( MAF ).
AllscenariosheadtowardsadecarbonisedfutureandhavebeendesignedtoreduceGHGemissionsinlinewithEUtargetsfor2030ortheUnitedNationsClimateChangeConference2015( COP21 )ParisAgreementobjectiveofkeepingtemperaturerisebelow1.5°C.
Introduction1
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 5
Why do ENTSOG and ENTSO-E build scenarios together?
1 https://www.entsog.eu/sites/default/files/2019-06/190408_WGSB_Scenario%20Building%202020_Final%20Storyline%20Report.pdf
2 https://www.entsos-tyndp2020-scenarios.eu/visualisation-platform/
3 https://www.entsos-tyndp2020-scenarios.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/TYNDP_2020_Scenario_Building_Guidelines_Final_Report.pdf
ThejointscenarioreportisabasistowardsaninterlinkedmodelofENTSO-EandENTSOG.TYNDP2018wasthefirsttimeENTSOGandENTSO-Ecooperatedjointlyonscenariodevelopment.Therearestrongsynergiesandco-dependencybetweengasandelectricityinfrastructures,itisincreasinglyimportanttounderstandtheimpactsasEuropeanpolicyseekstodeliveracarbon-neutralenergysystemby2050.
JointscenariosallowENTSOGandENTSO-Etoassessfutureinfrastructureneedsandprojectsagainstthesamefutureoutlooks.Theoutcomesfromthejointscenariosprovidedecisionmakerswithbetter information,astheyseektomakeinformedchoicesthatwillbenefitallEuropeanconsumers.CombiningtheeffortsfromgasandelectricityTSOsgiveENTSOGandENTSO-Eanopportunitytotapintocross-sectoralknowledgeandexpertisethatwouldotherwisebemissing.Jointworkingprovidesaccesstoabroaderrangeofstakeholderswhoareactivelyparticipatingintheenergysector.
First step towards the 2020 edition of electricity and gas TYNDPs
ThejointscenariobuildingprocesshasthreestorylinesforTYNDP2020.National Trendsisthecentralpolicyscenar-ioofthisreport,designedtoreflectthemostrecentEUmemberstateNationalEnergyandClimatePlans( NECP ),submittedtotheECinlinewiththerequirementtomeetcurrentEuropean2030energystrategytargets.National Trendsrepresentsapolicyscenariousedintheinfra-structureassessmentphaseofENTSOG'sandENTSO-E'srespectiveTen-YearNetworkDevelopmentPlans( TYNDP )2020,withamorein-depthanalysisascomparedtotheotherscenarios.
Inaddition,ENTSO-EandENTSOGhavecreatedtwoscenariosinlinewiththeCOP21targets( Distributed EnergyandGlobal Ambition )withtheobjectivetounder-standtheimpactoninfrastructureneedsagainstdifferentpathwaysreducingEU-28emissionstonet-zeroby2050.ThethreescenariostorylinesdevelopedinconsultationwithstakeholdersaredetailedextensivelyinENTSOGandENTSO-EStorylinesReport 1releasedinMay2019.Distrib-utedEnergyhasbeenfurtheradaptedonthe2040–2050timehorizontakingintoaccountstakeholderfeedbackandtoensurehigherdifferentiationwiththeotherCOP21Scenario,GlobalAmbition.
Visualise and download scenarios data
ThejointscenariopackageprovidesanextensivedatasetresourcethatisusedfortheENTSOTYNDPandisthebasisforotherstudies.ScenarioinformationcontainedinthisreportisprovidedinEU-28termsunlessstatedoth-erwise.ThetechnicaldatasetssubmittedtotheTYDNPprocessandavailabletodownloadextendbeyondtheEU-28countries,includingcountriessuchasNorway,Switzerland,Turkey.
ENTSOGandENTSO-Einvitestakeholderstousethescenariodatasetsfortheirownstudies.Alldatafromthescenarioscanbeaccessedviathevisualisationplatform 2.
WhereasDistributed EnergyandGlobal Ambitionhavebeenbuiltasfull-energyscenarioswithaperspectiveuntil2050,National TrendsisbasedonelectricityandgasrelateddataalignedwithNECPsanddevelopeduntil2040.
Methodology in details
Thedevelopmentofthescenariosbuildsonstorylinesandamethodologytotranslatethestorylinesintoparam-etersandeventuallyfigures.TheTYNDP2020ScenarioBuildingGuidelines 3providesfulltransparencyonhow
thescenariosareelaboratedandhowthedevelopmentofdifferentdemandtechnologies,generationandconversioncapacities,renewablesharesandallotherparametersareconsidered.
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What is the purpose of the scenarios and how should they be used?
AsoutlinedinRegulation( EU )347/2013,ENTSOGandENTSO-EarerequiredtousescenariosasthebasisfortheofficialTenYearNetworkDevelopmentPlans( createdeverytwoyearsbyENTSO-EandENTSOG )andforthecalculationofthecost-benefitanalysis( CBA )usedtode-termineEUfundingforelectricityandgasinfrastructureProjectsofCommonInterest( PCI ).Thescenariosweredesignedspecificallyforthispurpose.Wherepossible,theyhavebeenderivedfromofficialEUandmember-statedatasources,andareintendedtoprovideanimpartialquantita-tivebasisforinfrastructureinvestmentplanning.
Thescenariosareintendedtoprojectthelong-termen-ergydemandandsupplyforENTSOG’sandENTSO-E’sTenYearNetworkDevelopmentPlandevelopmentwithinthecontextoftheongoingEnergyTransition.Theyaredesignedinsuchawaythattheyspecificallyexplorethose
uncertaintieswhicharerelevantforgasandelectricityinfrastructuredevelopment.Assuch,theyprimarilyfocusonaspectswhichdeterminetheinfrastructureutilisation.Furthermore,thescenariosdrawextensivelyonthecurrentpoliticalandeconomicconsensusandattempttofollowalogicaltrajectorytoachievefutureenergyandclimatetargets.
Thescenariosshouldprovidetheuserwithinsightintotheenergysystemofthefutureandtheroleofelectricityandgascarriersinthisenergysystem.Usersareabletodeterminetheeffectsofchangesinsupplyanddemandontheenergysystem.TheEuropeanandglobalperspectivesforthesescenariosenabletheusertotracksupplyanddemanddevelopmentsgeographicallyaswellastemporallyandtogaingreaterinsightintothechallengesfacingener-gyinfrastructureduringtheEnergyTransition.
Purpose of the scenario report2
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 7
What isn’t the purpose of the scenarios?
TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildinghasgonetogreatlengthstobuildonthe2020ScenarioReportandtoin-creaseitsambitions,especiallyinconsideringexternalfac-torssuchastheEnergyTransitionandthedecarbonisationoftheEuropeanenergysystemonenergyinfrastructure.Nonetheless,itisimportanttorecognisethatthescopeofthesescenariosremainsfocusedonprovidingsufficientinputdatatomodelfutureinfrastructureneeds.
TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildinghavesoughttoavoidmakingpoliticalstatementswiththesescenariosand,asfaraspossible,toanchorkeyparametersinwidelyaccepteddataandassumptions.TheNationalTrendsscenarioexistswithinaninputframeworkprovidedbyofficialdatasets( suchasPRIMES )andofficialenergypolicies( theNECPsoftheEUmemberstates ).ThegoaloftheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildinghasbeentomaintainaneutralperspec-tivetotheseinputs.
Whilethetop-downscenarioshavegreaterroomforin-novationtomeetmoreambitiousdecarbonisationoftheEnergysystemupto2050,itisnottheintentionoftheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingtousethesescenariostopushpoliticalagendasattachedtotheuseornon-useofspecificenergycarriersortechnologies.ThemainfocusoftheTYNDPScenarioReportisthelong-termdevelopmentofenergyinfrastructure.Assuch,thedifferencesbetweenthetwotop-downscenarios( GlobalAmbitionandDis-tributedEnergy )arepredominantlyrelatedtopossiblevariationsindemandandsupplypatterns.
Tothisend,allthescenariosintheTYNDP2020ScenarioReportremaintechnologyandenergy-carrierneutral.Theenergymixdeployedineachofthesescenarioshasbeendesignedtoreflectabroadconsensuswithintheenergy
industryandcorrelatestoalargeextentwithofficialliter-ature–mostprominentlywiththeEU’sownLong-TermStrategyscenarios.
Wherethescenarioshaveincorporatedparametersde-finedbyexternalanalysis( suchasthecalculationofacarbonbudgetbyClimateActionNetworkEuropeortheBiomethaneTooldesignedwiththesupportofNavigant ),theexternalanalysisconformstothewidelyacceptedunderstandingofthesetopics.
TheTYNDP2020ScenarioReportattemptstoreflecttheEnergyTransitionandthedecarbonisationeffortsoftheEuropeanenergysysteminitsscenarios.Thisisin-corporatedbytheuseoftheCOP21Agreement( intheformofacarbonbudgetcalculation )asoneofthekeyinputparametersforthetop-downscenarios.However,itisimportanttorecognizethatitisbeyondthescope( andindeedtheresources )oftheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingtoanalysepolitical,environmentalandindeedsocietaldevelopmentsonthewidestscale.
Aboveallitisimportanttorecognizethefast-movingnatureoftheEnergyTransitioninEurope.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingrecognisestherealitythatsomeoftheinputparametersusedinthecreationofthesescenar-iosmaywellneedtobeadjustedinthemonthsandyearstocomeastheenergypolicyoftheEUanditsmemberstatesevolvestomeetthechallengesofclimatechange.WetakethisopportunitytoremindthereaderthattheTYNDPScenarioBuildingProcessisaniterativeprocessanditcontinuestoevolvebasedonexternalinfluences.Ascenarioisapictureofthefuture;however,itisalsoareflectionofthepresentknowledgeandtheforeseeablechallengesfacetoday.
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1) Tocomplywiththe1.5°CtargetsoftheParisAgree-ment,carbonneutralitymustbeachievedby2040intheelectricitysectorandby2050inallsectorstogeth-er.Additionalmeasurestoreachnetnegativeemissionsafter2050arenecessary.
2) Toachievenet-zeroemissions,innovationinnewandexistingtechnologiesisrequiredto:
–reducethelevelisedcostofenergyfromrenewableenergysources
–increasetheefficiencyandtypeofenduserappliances
–supportrenewableanddecarbonisedgas 4
–developtechnologiesthatwillsupportnegative emissions
3) “Quickwins”areessentialtoreduceglobaltemperaturewarming.Acoaltogasswitchinthepowersectorcansaveatleast85MtCO₂by2025.
4) Tooptimiseconversions,thedirectuseofelectricityisanimportantoption–resultinginprogressiveelectri-ficationthroughoutallscenarios.Gaswillcontinuetoplayanimportantroleinsectorssuchasfeedstockinnon-energyuses,high-temperatureprocesses,transportorinhybridheatingsolutionstomakeoptimaluseofbothinfrastructures.
5) Tomovetowardsalowcarbonenergysystem,signifi-cantinvestmentingasandelectricityrenewabletech-nologiesisrequired.FurtherexpansionofcrossbordertransfercapacitybetweenmarketswillcontributetoensuringrenewableresourcesareefficientlydistributedanddispatchedintheEuropeanelectricitymarket.
4 Decarbonisedgasisnaturalgasforwhichthecarbondioxideisremovedbypre-orpost-combustioncarboncaptureandstorage(CCS) technology.Renewablegasontheotherhandoriginatesfromrenewablesources.Forexample,biomethaneproducedfromorganicmaterialorhydrogen/syntheticmethanefromelectrolysis(P2G).Moreinformationdefinitionscanbefoundintheglossaryorinthemethodologyreport.
5 AccordingtotheP2GandP2Lmodellingapproach,thededicatedwindandsolarissimulatedoutsidetheintegratedelectricitysystem.
6 SeeEUROSTAT(link)
6) WindandsolarenergywillplayanimportantroleintheEuropeanenergysystem,however,thescenariospointoutthatthedecarbonisationofgaswillhaveasignificantparttoplayaswell.Thescenariosshowthatthedecarbonisationofthegascarrierisnecessary,em-ployingtechnologiestoincreasetheshareofrenewablegases,suchasbio-methaneandPower-to-Gas,anddecarbonisedgasesassociatedwithCarbonCaptureandStorage( CCS ).
7) Atpresentgasasanenergycarrierismainlybasedonmethane,asthemaincomponentofnaturalgas.However,inthelonger-termhydrogencouldbecomeanequallyimportantenergycarriertowardsfulldecar-bonisationofthegascarriersin2050.
8) SectorCouplingenablesalinkbetweenenergycarriersandsectors,thusitbecomeskeyincontributingtoachievethedecarbonisationtarget.Inthelong-term,Power-to-GasandPower-to-Liquidwillplayakeyroleinboththeintegrationofelectricityfromvariablere-newablesanddecarbonisingthesupplyofgasandliquidfuels.Thiswouldrequirecloseto800 GWofdedicatedwindandsolar 5in2050.Gas-firedpowerplantswillcontinuetoprovidepeakpowerflexibilitytosupportanenergymixbasedonincreasinglyvariableelectricitygeneration.
9) Today,theEU28importsmostofitsprimaryenergy( ca.55 % 6 ).Decarbonisationwillalsochangethispattern.Inaway,the“insourcing”ofenergyproductionwillreducetheimportdependencytoca.20 %to36 %.However,importsremainanimportantvectorinthefutureener-gysupplymakinguseofcompetitivenaturalresourcesoutsidetheEUterritory.Forgasinparticular,importsharesincreaseinallscenariosuntil2030duetothedecliningnaturalgasproductionintheEU.
Highlights3
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 9
4.1 National Trends – the central policy scenario aligned with draft NECPs
7 MostMemberStatessubmittedtheirfinalNECPbytheendof2019.Atthetimeofdraftingthisscenarioreport,someNECPsarestillunderrevisionthough.Forthesecountries,theENTSOstookthedraftNECPsinstead.
Meeting European targets considering current policies
NationalTrendsaimsatreflectingthecommitmentsofeachMemberStatetomeetthetargetssetbytheEuropean
UnionintermsofefficiencyandGHGemissionsreductionfortheenergysector.Atcountrylevel,NationalTrendsisalignedwiththeNECPsoftherespectiveMemberStates 7,whichtranslatetheEuropeantargetstocountryspecificobjectivesfor2030.
Special Focus: Pathways towards a decarbonised economy4
Figure1:NationalTrendsscenariointeractionswithNECPs(FinalNECPs,EUCOscenarios)
National Trends 1.0 / draft scenario report (Nov.2019)
MS Draft NECPS (Dec.2018) EC recommendations (Jun.2019) MS Final NECPs (Dec.2019)
National Trends 2.0 / final scenario report (Mar.2020)
EUCO 32/32.5
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4.2 COP21 scenarios – a carbon budget approach
8 TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,SpecialReport,2018,https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
9 “Carbonneutrality(ornetzero)meanshavingabalancebetweenemittingcarbonandabsorbingcarbonfromtheatmosphereincarbonsinks.Removingcarbonoxidefromtheatmosphereandthenstoringitisknownascarbonsequestration.Inordertoachievenetzeroemissions, allworldwidegreenhousegasemissionswillhavetobecounterbalancedbycarbonsequestration”(EuropeanParliament(link)). TheENTSOsconsiderallgreenhousegasemissionsmeasuredintermsoftheircarbondioxideequivalence.
Below +1.5°C at the end of the century with a carbon budgetDistributedEnergy( DE )andGlobalAmbition( GA )( alsoreferredtoas“COP21Scenarios” )scenariosaremeanttoassesssensiblepathwaystoreachthetargetsetbytheParisAgreementfortheCOP21:1.5°Coratleastwellbelow2°Cbytheendofthecentury.ForthepurposeoftheTYNDPscenarios,thistargethasbeentranslatedbyENTSO-EandENTSOGintoacarbonbudgettostaybelow+1.5°Cattheendofthecenturywitha66.7 %probability 8.
A carbon budget defined with environmental organisationsTolimittheglobalwarmingto+1.5°Cbytheendofthecentury,thereisamaximumquantityofGHGtheEU–includingtheenergysystem–canemit.ThisdefinesthecarbonbudgetfortheEU,andtoamorerestrictiveextent,theshareallocatedtotheenergysystemthattheCOP21scenariosconsider.Todefinethecarbonbudgetuntiltheyear2100,ENTSO-EandENTSOGhaveworkedwiththeenvironmentalNGOsRenewableGridInitiativeandClimateActionNetworkEurope.
A carbon neutral energy system by 2050TheotherobjectivesetintheCOP21scenariosistoreachcarbonneutrality 9oftheenergysystemby2050.Thisobjectivethereforeplacesfurtherdemandsonthespeedofdecarbonisationtheenergysystemshouldreach.
GHG emissions compared to 1990 level
20202015 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
80 %
70 %
60 %
50 %
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
Global AmbitionDistributed Energy EU GHG reduction targets/range 2015 NT30
Figure2:GHGemissioninENTSOS’scenarios
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 11
Cumulativenon-CO�emissions 1,534 5,135 8,401 11,311 13,844 16,000 17,780
CumulativeCO�emissions 6,743 21,953 34,686 44,995 53,008 59,075 63,504
Cumulativecreditsfrompre-and post-combustiveCCS
0 0 –136 –679 –1,673 –3,034 –4,676
CumulativecreditsfromBECCS 0 0 0 –32 –128 –356 –808
CumulativecreditsfromLULUCF –627 –2,253 –3,963 –5,757 –7,635 –9,598 –11,644
NetCumulativeCO�eqemissions 7,650 24,835 38,988 49,838 57,416 62,087 64,155
Cumulativenon-CO�emissions 1,534 5,132 8,394 11,298 13,821 15,963 17,725
CumulativeCO�emissions 6,735 21,985 34,486 43,860 50,456 54,784 57,113
Cumulativecreditsfrompre-and post-combustiveCCS
0 0 –56 –260 –642 –1,165 –1,778
CumulativecreditsfromBECCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CumulativecreditsfromLULUCF –627 –2,253 –3,963 –5,757 –7,635 –9,598 –11,644
NetCumulativeCO�eqemissions 7,642 24,864 38,860 49,141 55,999 59,984 61,416
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0
20,000
10,000
−20,000
−10,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
90,000
100,000
80,000
EU 28 cumulative GHG emissions – Global Ambition
EU 28 cumulative GHG emissions – Distributed Energy
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0
20,000
10,000
−20,000
−10,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Figure3:EU28CumulativeEmissionsinCOP21ScenariosinMtCO2
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Carbon neutrality can be reached by 2050 within a budget of 61 GtCO� …BothDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionscenariosshowthatacentralisedordecentralisedevolutionoftheenergysystemcanachievecarbonneutralityby2050.Thescenariosalsoshowthat,consideringdifferentdevelop-mentoftechnologies–andstartingfrom2018onwards–theenergysystemcanlimititsemissionstoreachnotmorethan64.2GtCO₂atEUleveluntil2050inGlobalAmbition,andnotmorethan61.4GtCO₂inDistributedEnergy.
10 AccordingtotheP2GandP2Lmodellingapproach,thededicatedwindandsolarissimulatedoutsidetheintegratedelectricitysystem.
… but negative emissions are needed after 2050However,thescenariobudgetdefinedtolimittheglobalwarmingto1.5°Cwitha66.7 %probabilityconsidersthatthecumulativeEUGHGemissionsshouldbelimitedto48.5GtCO₂bytheendofthe21stcentury.Thismeansnetnegativeemissionsof15.7GtCO₂havetobeachievedbe-tween2050and2100incaseofGlobalAmbition,providedtheEUiscarbonneutralin2050.ForDistributedEnergy,duetolowercumulativeemissionsuntil2050,12.9GtCO₂ofnetnegativeemissionsareneededtoreachthe1.5°Ctargetby2100.
4.3 Sector-Coupling – an enabler for ( full ) decarbonisation
ForENTSOGandENTSO-E,sectorcouplingdescribesinterlinkagesbetweenenergycarriers,relatedtechnolo-giesandinfrastructure.Majorprocessesinthisregardaregas-firedpowergeneration,Power-to-Gas( P2G )aspartofthebroaderPower-to-Xandhybriddemandtechnologies.
ENTSOs’scenariosaredependentonfurtherdevelopmentofsectorcoupling,withouttheseinterlinkagesahighorevenfulldecarbonisationintheenergysectorwillnotbereached.
Assumingaswitchfromcarbon-intensivecoaltonaturalgasin2025,aminimumof85MtCO₂couldbeavoidedinthepowergeneration.Withincreasingsharesofrenewableanddecarbonisedgases,gas-firedpowerplantsbecomethemain“back-up”forvariableRESinthelong-term.DistributedEnergyevenshowsafurtherneedforCCS
forgaspowerplantstoreachitsambitioustargetoffulldecarbonisationinpowergenerationby2040.
Ontheotherhand,P2GbecomesanenablerfortheintegrationofvariableRESandanoptiontodecarbonisethegassupply.Hydrogenandsyntheticmethaneorliquidsallowforcarbon-neutralenergyuseinthefinalsectors.DistributedEnergyisthescenariowiththehighestneedforP2GandP2L,requiring1,460 TWhofdedicatedpowergeneration 10peryearwithmorethan490 GWofcapacitiesforwindandsolarin2040toproducerenewablegas.
SectorcouplinginNationalTrends,withtheassumptionthatP2Ggenerationislimitedtosubstituteotherwisecur-tailedelectricitysupply,amountsto27 TWhwith22GWofP2Gtoproducerenewablegas.
< 2050 2050 > 2050 Total
Energyandnon-energyrelatedCO�emissions 57.1
Carbon-Neutrality
Additionalmeasuresneeded,e. g.: LULUCF,
BECCS,CCS,DAC
Non-CO�GHGemissions(includingmethaneandFluorinatedgases)* 17.7
Carbonsinks** −13.4
Netcumulative emissions 61.4 −13
EU28carbonbudgetsharebasedonitspopulation 48.5GtCO�
*DataformethaneandfluorinatedgasesemissionsistakenfromtheEuropeanCommission’smostambitious1.5TECHand 1.5LIFE scenarios (average)aspublishedinthe“ACleanPlanetforall”-Study(link).
**DataforLULUFCistakenfromtheEuropeanCommission’smostambitious1.5TECHand 1.5LIFEscenarios(average)aspublishedinthe “ACleanPlanetforall”-Study(link).
Table1:CumulativeemissionsandrequirednetnegativeemissionsinDistributedEnergy
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ToensureconsistencybetweensuccessiveTYNDPreports,itisnecessarytopreservethescenariosessencetosomedegree.Therefore,the2020scenariosbuildonthe2018scenarios.However,theenergylandscapeiscontinuouslyevolving,andscenariosmustkeepupwiththemaindriversandtrendsinfluencingtheenergysystem.
Storyline drivers
ENTSOGandENTSO-Eidentifiedtwomaindriverstodeveloptheirscenariostorylines:Decarbonisationandcentralisation/decentralisation.DecarbonisationreferstothedeclineintotalGHGemissionswhilecentralisation/decentralisationreferstothespatialset-upoftheenergysystem,suchastheshareoflarge/smallscaleelectricitygeneration( offshorewindvs.solarPV )ortheshareofin-digenousrenewablegases( biomethaneandP2G )vs.shareofdecarbonisedgasimports( eitherpre-orpost-combus-
tive ).Figure4illustratestherelationofthetwokeydriversforallthreescenarios.
Fortheshortandmedium-term,thescenariosincludea“BestEstimate”scenario( bottom-updataincludingameritordersensitivitybetweencoalandgasin2025 ).Forthelongerterm,theyincludethreedifferentstorylinestoreflectincreasinguncertainties.
- For2020and2025,allscenariosarebasedonbot-tom-updatafromtheTSOscalledthe“BestEstimate”ScenarioandreflectingcurrentnationalandEuropeanregulations.Asensitivityanalysisregardingthemeritorderofcoalandgasinthepowersectorisincludedfor2025followingstakeholderinputregardingtheun-certaintyonprices,evenintheshortterm.Thesearedescribedas2025CoalBeforeGas( CBG )and2025GasBeforeCoal( GBC ).
Scenario description and storylines5
14 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
- NationalTrendskeepsitsbottom-upcharacteristics,takingintoaccountTSOs’bestknowledgeofthegasandelectricitysectorsincompliancewiththeNECPs.Country-specificdatawascollectedfor2030and2040( whenavailableforelectricity )incompliancewiththeTYNDPtimeframe.Forgas,furtherassumptionshavebeenmadetocomputethedemandfor2050onanEU28-level.
- DistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionarebuiltasfullenergyscenarios( allsectors,allfuels )withtop-downmethodologies.Bothscenariosaimatreachingthe1.5°CtargetoftheParisAgreementfollowingthecarbonbudgetapproach.Theyaredevelopedonacountry-leveluntil2040andonanEU28-leveluntil2050.
Thestorylinesfor2030and2040/2050are:
- National Trends ( NT )isthecentralbottom-upscenarioinlinewiththeNECPsinaccordancewiththegovernanceoftheenergyunionandclimateactionrules,aswellasonfurthernationalpoliciesandclimatetargetsalreadystatedbytheEUmemberstates.Followingitsfunda-mentalprinciples,NTiscompliantwiththeEU’s2030ClimateandEnergyFramework( 32 %renewables,32.5 %energyefficiency )andEC2050Long-TermStrategywithanagreedclimatetargetof80–95 %CO₂reductioncom-paredto1990levels.
National Trends relies on data provided by the latest submissions of country specific NECPs for 2030 at the freeze date of the data. Where, in particular for 2040,
NECPs do not provide sufficient information or nec-essary granularity, National Trends is based on TSOs’ best knowledge in compliance with national long-term climate and energy strategies.
- Global Ambition ( GA )isascenariocompliantwiththe1.5°CtargetoftheParisAgreementalsoconsideringtheEU’sclimatetargetsfor2030.Itlooksatafuturethatisledbydevelopmentincentralisedgeneration.Economiesofscaleleadtosignificantcostreductionsinemergingtechnologiessuchasoffshorewind,butalsoimportsofenergyfromcompetitivesourcesareconsideredasaviableoption.
- Distributed Energy ( DE ) isascenariocompliantwiththe1.5°CtargetoftheParisAgreementalsoconsideringtheEU’sclimatetargetsfor2030.Itembracesade-central-isedapproachtotheenergytransition.Akeyfeatureofthescenarioistheroleoftheenergyconsumer( prosum-er ),whoactivelyparticipatesintheenergymarketandhelpstodrivethesystem’sdecarbonisationbyinvestinginsmall-scalesolutionsandcircularapproaches.Basedonstakeholders’feedbackontheDraftScenarioReport,apartofbiomassusageshasbeentransferredtobothP2LanddirectelectricityconsumptionresultinginanupdatedStorylineCentralMatrix.Theupdatedscenar-iocomesverycloseto1.5TECH/LIFEscenariooftheuropeanCommissionformostoftheparameters.
FormoreinformationonthedevelopmentoftheScenarioStorylinesandhowthestakeholderfeedbackhasbeentakenintoaccountpleaserefertosection10.
Figure4:KeydriversofScenarioStorylines
Cent
ralis
atio
n
Game Changer &Cost Reduction
Management
Game Changer &Cost Reduction
Management
STATUS QUO
De-
cent
ralis
atio
n
Decarbonisation Ambition Level
40 %
40 %
100 %
100 %
80 %
80 %
60 %
60 %
50 %
50 %
CENTRALISEDINNOVATION
DE-CENTRALISEDINNOVATION
20 %
2050
2050
2030
2030
2025
2030
100 %
2040
2050
2040
2040
Lenght of arc reflects the range of possible outcomes
Scenario Year & Scenario Button
2040
National Trends
National TrendsNECP alignment
2025 Merit Order SwitchGas before Coal
Global Ambition
Distributed Engery
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 15
Category Criteria 2040 Scenarios
National Trends
Global Ambition
Distributedion Energy
Primary mix Coal -- --- ---
Oil -- --- ---
Nuclear -- -- --
Hydro o o o
Geothermal o + ++
Biomass* o ++ +
Natural gas - -- ---
Windonshore ++ +++ +++
Windoffshore +++ +++ ++
Solar ++ + +++
WindforP2GandP2L** o + +++**
SolarforP2GandP2L + + +++
ImportedGreenLiquidFuel + ++ +
EnergyImports - -- ---
High temperature Heat Totaldemand(allenergy) o - -
ElectricityDemand + + ++
GasDemand + ++ o
Low temperature Heat Totaldemand(allenergy) - -- --
ElectricityDemand + ++ +++
GasDemand - - --
Transport Totaldemand - -- --
ElectricityDemand + ++ +++
Power and Lighting GasDemand + ++ +
ElectricityDemand o - -
CCS CCS o +++ +
Table2:StorylineCentralMatrix
Change from today
––– –– – o + ++ +++
Notavailable Moderate Reduction
Low Reduction Stable Lowgrowth Moderate
growth Highgrowth
*biomassuseinNationalTrendsisveryclosetocurrentuseandtheevolutionhasbeenreducedto”Stable”comparedtotheDraftScenarioReport.ForDistributedEnergyscenario,thesubstitutionofbiomassbydirectelectrificationandP2Lhasresultedinanupdateoftheevolutionfrom“Moderategrowth”to“Lowgrowth”.
**ForDistributedEnergyscenario,thesubstitutionofbiomassbydirectelectrificationandP2LsuppliedwithadditionalREShasresultedinanupdateoftheevolutionfrom“Moderategrowth”to“Highgrowth”.
16 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
Scenario Building Central Matrix
TheScenarioBuildingCentralMatrixisatoolusedtoiden-tifythekeyelementsofthestorylines.TheCentralMatrixenablescreationofscenariosthatareconsistentalongapathway,yetdifferentiatedfromotherstorylines.
TheCentralMatrixisatablethatcanprovideanEU-widequalitativeoverviewofkeydriversfortheEuropeanenergysystemin2050.Thematrixuses+/–indicatorstoshowhowprimaryenergymixandfinalenergyusechangecom-paredtosectorsareassumedtochangefromtoday.Itisimportanttonotethatcountryleveland/orregionaldiffer-enceswillbepresent,whencomparedtotheEU-28figures,thedifferencesaredrivenbyfactorssuchasnationalpolicy,geographicaland/ortechnicalresourceconstraints.
Tounderstandthematrixnotation,thefollowingassump-tionsmustbeconsidered:
- Thegrowthorreductionindicationsareinrelationtowhatisseentoday,butalsoinrelationtotheratesob-servedwithinthatcategoryincomparisontotheotherscenarios.Forexample,comparedtotoday,solargener-ationisexpectedtoincreasesignificantlyinallscenariosfromtoday,butonlyreceivesa+++inDistributedEnergy.
- Equally,growthandreductionratesacrossthedifferentcategoriesarenotdirectlycomparable.Forexample,twocategorieswith++ratingmaydiffersignificantlyintheiractualpercentageincreasefromtoday,basedonthestartingpointandultimatepotential.
WherestorylineparametershavebeenupdatedbasedonconsultationfeedbackontheDraftScenarioReport,theinitialvaluesarementionedasfootnotes.
FurtherinformationonhowtoreadtheCentralMatrixcanbefoundintheannexdocumentScenarioBuildingGuidelines.
Figure5:TheTYNDP2020ScenariosaredefinedbythreeStorylines
2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
n/a 19 %
n/a 20 %
n/a 8 %
n/a n/a
1 % 1 %
1 % 1 %
78 % 85 %
29 % 42 % n/a21 % 16 % n/a12 % 15% n/a
0 % 1 % n/a
n/a n/a n/a
4 % 12 % n/a
4 % 13 % n/a
84 % 83 % n/a
Domestic RES Gas Biomethane
RES-E solar
RES-E hydro
Decarbonisation of gas supply
RES-E wind
Domestic RES Gas Power-to-gas
Gas import share
Direct electrification
29 % 42 % 54 %
32 % 45 % 50 %
21 % 21 % 23 %
21 % 16 % 29 %
14 % 18 % 19 %
10 % 13 % 15 %
3 % 17 % 32 %
0 % 6 % 11 %
29 % 45 % 54 %
27 % 35 % 41 %
6 % 18 % 33 %
5 % 12 % 19 %
12 % 47 % 86 %
11 % 46 % 86 %
79 % 60 % 35 %
83 % 78 % 70 %
National TrendsBest Estimate
Distributed Energy
Global Ambition
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 17
Thelevelofdetailprovidedforeachscenariodependsontheapproachtobuildingthedataset.
TheNationalTrendsbottom-upcollectionusesgasandelectricitydemanddatafromtheTSOsalignedwiththeNECPs.Thefinalenergydemandsuppliedbyotherprimaryfuels,suchasforheatandtransport,isnotinfocusoftheTSOdatacollection;thereforesectorbysectorenergydemandsplitscannotbereported.ThebottomupdataisbasedonmemberstateNECPs,thisunderpinstheassump-tionthatthebottomupgasandelectricitydemanddata
contributesfairlytowardstheEU28CleanEnergyPackagetargetsfor2030;32 %renewableenergyalongwith32.5 %energyefficiency.
Thenewtop-downscenariobuildingapproachprovidesENTSOGandENTSO-Ewithnewopportunitiestoreportontotalprimaryenergyandthesectorsplitsforfinalen-ergydemand.Thetop-downenergymodellingapproachevolvesinfiveyearstepsfromhistoricalenergybalancedata,soitispossibletoreportonthesectoralfinalenergydemandovertime.
Scenario Results 6
18 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
6.1 Demand
6.1.1 Final Energy Demand
11 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-efficiency/targets-directive-and-rules/eu-targets-energy-efficiency
ThechartbelowshowsthetotalenergysectordemandforthestorylinesDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition.AkeydriverinhowthefinalenergydemandvolumesarederivedisaEU28targetspecifyinga32.5 %reductioninfinaluseenergydemandby2030comparedto2005.ThefinalusedemandfortheEU28accordingtoDEE2012/27/EU( 10309/18 ) 11shouldbearound11,100 TWh.Thefinaluseenergydemandfiguredoesnotincludetheenergyrequirementfornon-energyuses.Whenthisadjustmentistakenintoaccount,finalenergydemandin2030forDistributedEnergyis10,500 TWhandGlobalAmbition10,600 TWh.Bothscenariosachievein2050highereffi-ciencygainabove50 %,higherthan1.5TECHandLIFELTSscenarios.
Finalenergydemandcanachieveambitiousreductionsinenergyvolumeduetochangestoenduserapplicationsandenergyefficiencymeasures.Thescenariostorylinescapturethemessuchas,butnotlimitedto:
- Convertingfromlessefficientheatingoptionstoheatpumptechnologies,suchaselectricorhybrid( combinedgasandelectricityusage )airorgroundheatpumps,
- Switchingfromlowefficiencytransportoptionstomoreefficientmodesoftransport
- Energyefficiencyproductstandards;continuetodeliverenergyefficiencygainsforend-userappliances
- Inthebuiltenvironmentthermalinsulationreducesdemandforheat,whileensuringcomfortlevelaremaintained
- Behaviouralchangeswhereconsumersactivelyreducedemandeitherbyutilisingmorepublictransportormodifyingheatingandcoolingcomfortlevels.
Althoughoverallfinalenergydemandisdecreasing,gasandelectricityshowdifferenttrends.Forgasatleastuntil2025aswellasforelectricityinthelong-run,theenergydemandgrowthisdrivenbyfactorssuchasunderlyinggrossdomesticproduct( GDP )growth,additionalenergydemandfromlowtemperatureheatandtransportsectorsasthesesectorsswitchawayfromcarbon-intensivefuels,suchascoalandoil.ThestorylinesassumethatatanEUlevelunderlyingGDPgrowthistemperedbythestrongenergyefficiencymeasures,sothatfinalenergydemand( whichincludeselectricitydemand )isreducedtomeettheEU2832.5 %energyefficiencytargetfor2030.
TheNationalTrendsenergyfiguresarebasedontheTSOdatacompatiblewiththelatestavailabledatafrommemberstateNECPs.Theannualenergyvolumescomefromnationalforecasts,thataresummeduptoprovideinformationatEU28level.
TWh
2005
Distributed EnergyDistributed Energy Global AmbitionGlobal AmbitionHistoricHistoric
2015 2030 2050
Transport
0
2,000
6,000
4,000
8,000
14,000
18,000
16,000
12,000
10,000
Residential Tertiary Industry Final energy demand EU Efficiency Target 2030
Figure6:FinalenergydemandinCOP21 scenarios
Note: All gas figures are expressed in gross calorific value (GCV) except when stated otherwise in net calorific value (NCV). Where needed, external scenario figures have been converted to gross calorific values by applying a factor of 110 %. For the definition of gross and net calorific value please refer to the glossary section at the end of this document.
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 19
6.1.2 Direct Electricity Demand 12
12 DirectElectricityDemandreferstotheelectricityenduseinsectorssuchasresidential,tertiary,transportandindustry
Thescenariosshowthathigherdirectelectrificationoffinalusedemandacrossallsectorsresultsinanincreaseintheneedforelectricitygeneration.
DistributedEnergyisthescenariostorylinewiththehigh-estannualelectricitydemandreachingaround4,000 TWhin2040andaround4,300 TWhin2050.TheresultsforscenariosshowthatthereisthepotentialforyearonyeargrowthforEU28directelectricitydemand.Thetablepro-videsannualEU-28electricitydemandvolumesandtheassociatedgrowthrateforthespecifiedperiods.
Thegrowthratesforthestorylineshowthatby2040NationalTrendsiscentrallypositionedintermsofgrowthbetweenthetwomore-ambitioustop-downscenariosDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition.ThemainreasonfortheswitchingrowthratesisduetothefactthatGlob-alambitionhasthestrongestlevelsofenergyefficiency,whereasforDistributedEnergystrongelectricitydemandgrowthislinkedtohighelectrificationfromhighuptakeofelectricvehiclesandheatpumps( inhouseholdsanddis-trictheating ),overlayingelectricalenergyefficiencygains.
Peakelectricitydemandisdefinedasthehighestsinglehourlypowerdemand( GW )withinagivenyear.Peakdemandgrowthinthefuturewillbeimpactedinanumberofways,forexample;
- Therolloutofsmartmetering,thesemayprovidemoreopportunitiesforintelligentorefficientenergydemandpatternsbyconsumersintime
- Highgrowthratesforpassengerelectricvehiclesprobablyleadtopressuresontheelectricalgrid,bothatdistributionandtransmissionlevels.Thescenariosassumethatthereisaninherentlevelofsmartchargingthatshiftsconsumerbehaviourawayfrompeakperiods.
- Electricandhybridheatpumps.Thedemandtimeseriescreatedareweatherdependent.Theresultsshowthatelectricheatpumpscanaddpressuretodemand;i. e.thereismoreheatdemandwhentheoutsidetem-peraturesarelow.Thereareanumberofoptionstosupportdirectelectricheating,suchas,thermalstorageorhybridheatingsystems.Forexample:Hybridsystemscanhelpmitigatetheadverseimpactontheelectricitygridbyswitchingtogasduringextremecoldperiods( typicallylessthan5°C ).
- Newpeakdemandchallengesmayresultfromaddition-alnewbaseloaddemand,suchasdatacentresassumingthatdigitalisationincreasesglobally.
Figure7:Directelectricitydemandperscenario(EU28)
Scenario EU-28 Annual Electricity Demand (TWh) Compound Annual Growth Rate
2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 2015–2030 2030–2040 2040–2050
HistoricalDemand 3,086
National Trends 3,199 3,237 3,554 3,696 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.4 %
GlobalAmbition 3,213 3,426 3,478 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.2 %
DistributedEnergy 3,422 4,029 4,269 0.7 % 1.5 % 0.7 %
2015
Historical Demand
20302025 2040 2050
3,100
3,3003,200
3,000
3,4003,5003,6003,7003,8003,9004,0004,1004,200
4,4004,300
4,500
National Trends Global Ambition Distributed Energy
Annual Demand TWh
Table3:AnnualEU-28electricitydemandvolumesandtheassociatedgrowthrate
20 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
ThehourlydemandchartsshowthatthehistoricaleffectsofGDPandenergyefficiencycontinueinfluencingelec-tricitydemandgrowthinindustry,tertiaryandresidentialsectors.Thescenariosshowthatdirectelectrificationoftransportandheatingsectorsstartstohaveasignificantimpactonthehourlyprofiles.
Itisclearfromthefuturedemandprofilecompositionthattheimpactofelectricvehiclesisnoticeablethroughouttheyear.Theimpactforheatpumpsishoweverlargelydependentontheoutsideweathertemperature.Naturally,
thereisareduceddemandforheatinthesummer,butelectrifiedwaterheatingremainspartofthecompositionduringsummerperiods.
Peakdemandforelectricitygrowsbetween2030and2040foreachstoryline.Theelectrificationofheatandtransportaretwosignificantdriversingrowthofelectricitypeakdemand.ThestorylineassumptionsmeanthatGDPrelatedpeakde-mandgrowthismoderatedbyenergyefficiency.Theimpactofdemandsideresponseonpeakelectricityismodelledasapriceddemandsideresponseinthepowermarketanalyses.
Electricity Demand (GW)
0
Water Heating
1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hour of Day
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 233
2.0
6.0
4.0
–2.0
0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Electric Heat pumps Historical
Hybrid Heating Industrial demand Growth Residential and Tertiary Growth Electric Cars Passenger TrainsBuses
Winter hourly demand profile for a single market node
Electricity Demand (GW)
0
Water Heating
1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hour of Day
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 233
2.0
6.0
4.0
–2.0
0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Electric Heat pumps Historical
Hybrid Heating Industrial demand Growth Residential and Tertiary Growth Electric Cars Passenger TrainsBuses
Summer hourly demand profile for a single market node
Figure8:Exampleofwinterhourlydemandprofileforasinglemarketnode–Impactofdirectelectrificationinheatingand transport sectors
Figure9:Exampleofsummerhourlydemandprofileforasinglemarketnode–Impactofdirectelectrificationinheatingandtransport sectors
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 21
TheNationalTrendsdemandprofilesaredevelopedfromtheTSOsinputbasedonlatestavailablememberstateNECPsandwhereavailablenationalprojectionsfor2040.Forthetop-downscenariosENTSOGandENTSO-Eas-sumeahighuptakeofsmartchargingfortransport,whichwillmoderatepeakdemandgrowthrates.Thedemandprofilesaccountforoutsidetemperatureandtheimpactonpeakdemand;thisisimportantastheshareofelectricitywithintheheatingsectorincreases.
Forthetop-downscenariosthereisrationalspreadinpeakdemandgrowthratesbetween2030and2040.GlobalAmbitionisthescenariowiththelowestlevelsofheatpumps,coupledhigherenergyefficiencyresultsinthisscenariointhelowestpeakdemandgrowthbetween2030&2040.InDistributedEnergythemaindriverforhigherpeakdemandisthehigherrateofelectrificationacrossallsectors,however,itisimportanttonotethiscanatthesametimeprovideadditionalopportunitiesfordemandsideresponse,suchasvehicletogridordemandflexibilitiesatdomesticlevel.
ThepeakdemandgrowthrateinNationalTrendsbetween2030and2040indicatesa1.0 %yearonyeargrowthinpeakdemand.ThegrowthrateforNationalTrendsliesfirmlyinbetweenthedemandgrowthratesforDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition.Thespreadinpeakdemandprovidesanopportunityforallthreescenariostoenhancetheunderstandingonthe long-termimpactsfortheEuropeantransmissionsystem.
Direct electrification of transport and heat
ElectrificationofheatandtransportaretwokeyareasthatarenecessarytodecarbonisetheEuropeanenergysystem.TheinformationreceivedfromtheTSOsandtheCOP21scenariosshowthatelectricvehiclesandheatpumpshavethegreatestimpactonelectricitydemand.Thechartsshowhowthescenarioelectricvehiclesandheatpumpscomparetoexternalscenariosreferencedinthechartas“range”.
ThescenariosaimtoreduceemissionsinlinewiththeEuropeantargetsandCOP21pathways.Toachieveam-bitiousemissionreductionintheheatingsector,ashiftawayfromfossilfuelsisrequired.Thescenariosshowthatmovingawayfromoilandcoalisaquickwintoreduceemissionsintheheatingsector.Thetop-downandbottomupscenarioshighlighttheneedforconsumerstochangehowtheyuseheatintheirhomesandbusinesses.Thescenariosrequirealargeshifttowardselectricandhybridheatpumps,thesetechnologiesbothreduceprimaryenergydemandandfinaluseenergydemandduetotheimpactofheatpumpco-efficientofperformance.Heatpumptechnologiesareusedforspaceheatingandsanitywaterheating.
DistributedEnergyshowsthehighestelectrificationwith245Millionelectricvehiclesandaround50millionheatpumpsby2040.ThevolumesrelatingtoelectricvehiclesandheatpumpsprovideinsightintowhytheDistributedEnergyelectricitydemandreaches4,000 TWhby2040.
GlobalAmbitionisascenariowherethereisstronguptakeofelectricvehiclesreachingaround200millionby2040butlowerheatpumpuptakeataround25milliondevices.Thescenarioassumedmoreuptakeofalternativelowcarbonheatingtoensurethattheemissionslevelsforthescenariosareachieved.
National Trends
Distributed Energy
Global Ambition
2025Max 570,904
Average 520,101
2030Max 587,499 594,554 559,687
Average 534,324 547,007 516,480
2040Max 632,982 665,756 574,733
Average 576,844 625,990 533,988
CAGR (2015–2030) 0.54 % 1.01 % –0.14 %
CAGR (2030–2040) 0.77 % 1.36 % 0.33 %
Figure10:Peakelectricitydemandperscenario(EU28)
GW
Gobal Ambition Average Max
2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 20402030
450
400
500
550
600
650
700
National Trends Average Max
Distributed Energy Average Max
Historic Data
Table4:AnnualpeakdemandandCARGperscenario
22 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
TheNationalTrendsscenarioisbasedonTSOdataandshowsthatthereisalowerlevelofambitionforelectrifi-cationofthetransportsectoraround100millionelectricvehicleswitharound60millionheatpumpsby2040.Thescenarionumbersforelectricvehiclesandelectricandhybridheatpumpstechnologiesareshownonthe
13 Totalgasdemandcanalsobereferredtoas“GrossInlandConsumption”ofgasasdonebyEurostat(link)
charts.Theshadedarearepresentsarangeofminimumandmaximumvaluesfromthirdpartystudies,seesection8forfurtherinformation.Thechartsshowthattheinputassumptionsforheatpumpsandelectricvehiclesnumbersliewithincrediblevalues.
6.1.3 Gas Demand
Totalgasdemand 13issplitupintofinaldemand( residential,tertiary,industryincl.non-energyusesandtransport )anddemandforpowergeneration.Whereasscenarioscanshowadecreaseorincreaseforthetotalgasdemand,thedifferentsectorscanevolveindependentlyandindifferentdirections.
By2030,NationalTrendshasthelowesttotalgasdemand.Incontrarytothat,GlobalAmbitionandDistributedEnergyreachhigherdecarbonisationlevelsoftheenergysystemwithmoregas.Thisisduetothreemainreasons:
- fasterswitchfromcarbon-intensivefuels,suchascoalandoiltogas
- highersharesofrenewableanddecarbonisedgasesinthegasmix
- andinparticularDistributedEnergyprojectsahigherelectricitydemandinpowergenerationduetoahigherelectricitydemand
Whencomparingthesectoralsplit,allscenariosprojectadecreaseintheresidentialandtertiarysector,buttheuptakeofgasdemandinthetransportsectorcancompensatepartsofitintheCOP21Scenarios.Thesetrendsremainuntil2040,resultinginlowerdemandforallscenarios:DistributedEnergydecreaseseventoca.4,000 TWh( –20 %comparedtotoday’slevel ).Onthe
otherside,industryshowsamorestabledemanddevelop-mentandgasdemandfortransportincreasesthroughoutallscenarios,mostsignificantlyinGlobalAmbition.
Itisworthmentioning,thatthedevelopmentoffinalgasdemanddiffersfromregiontoregion.Duetoahighde-pendencyoncoal,gasdemandforheatingratherincreasesinCentralandEasternEurope,whereasotherregionsheadtowardsmoreelectrificationintheprivateheatingsector.Togiveanexamplecoalhasashareofupto50 %intheheatingsectorand80 %inthepowergenerationinPoland.
Aswitchfromcarbon-intensivecoaltonaturalgaswithlowercarbonintensityby2025,resultsin186 TWhadditionalgasdemand.However,thiswouldleadtoemissionsreductionintheelectricitygenerationofaminimumof85MtCO₂.Atleastuntil2030gasdemandforpowergenerationisincreasingwiththelevelofdecarbonisation( includingafastcoal-phaseout )andelectricitydemand.Therefore,DistributedEnergyasthescenariowiththehighestelectricitydemandhasupto26 %moregasdemandforpowergenerationthanNationalTrendswiththelowestgasdemandforelectricitygeneration.Thepicturechangesfor2040,wherealsoNationalTrendshasaccomplishedthecoalphase-outbutshowslowerrenewablepowergeneration.Asaresult,NationalTrendshasthehighestgasdemandforpowerin2040.
Figure11:Numberofelectricandhybridvehiclesandheatpumps(excl.districtheating)comparedtoarangebasedonanalysisof thirdpartyreports
2025
Range of external scenarios
2030 20502040
National Trends Global Ambition Distributed Energy
Mio. Number of EVs and PHEVs
2025 2030 20502040
Mio. Number of HP and HHP
0
50
100
150
300
250
200
350
0
50
100
150
300
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350
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 23
Peak demand generally follows the annual trends
Thehighdaily-peakand2-weekdemandrequirements 14 reflectthechangingnatureofresidentialandcommercialdemand,astemperature-dependingspaceheatingtypical-lydrivespeakgasconsumption.Asaresult,finaldemandforpeakdayand2-weekdecreasesinallscenariosduetoefficiencymeasureswithanevenfurtherdecreaseinDistributedEnergy,duetoahigherpenetrationofelectricalheatpumps.Thedecreaseinfinaldemandisforthemostpartcompensatedbyanincreasingpeakdemandforgasinpowergenerationasthemainback-upofvariablerenewables.NationalTrendsobservesthemostlimitedchangeasconsumershaveinvestedinmoretradition-altechnologies,althoughtheyareconsideredlessefficient.
The gas system can support the high development of variable RES
ThesignificantdevelopmentofvariableelectricityREScapacitiesinbothscenariosinfluencestheroleofthegasinfrastructuretoback-upthevariablepowergeneration.WithsignificantvariableREScapacitiesintheenergysys-tem,thegasdemandmaybeimpactedbyDunkelflauteeventsmoreoftenandmoreintensely.
14 The“2-weekdemand”referstoatwo-weekperiodduringacoldspellwithverylowtemperaturesresultinginhighheatingdemand
TWh (GCV)
BE 2020
CBG GBC NT GA 2030 2040 20502025
DE NT GA DE GA DE
R&C Industrial Transport
Historic Demand Average
Power Final
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Figure12:SectoralbreakdownoftotalgasdemandinEU28
GWh/d (GCV)
Peak
2 W
eek
DF
Peak
2 W
eek
DF
Peak
2 W
eek
DF
Peak
2 W
eek
DF
Peak
2 W
eek
DF
Peak
2 W
eek
DF
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eek
DF
BE 2020 2025 CBG 2025 GBC NT 2030 GA 2030 DE 2030 NT 2040 GA 2040 DE 2040
Final Demand
0
10,000
5,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000Power Yearly Average
Figure13:Gasdemandinhighdemandcases(Peak,2-Weekcoldspell,Dunkelflaute*) *“KalteDunkelflaute”orjust“Dunkelflaute”(Germanfor“colddarkdoldrums”)expessesaclimatecase,whereinadditiontoa2-weekcoldspell,variableRESelectricitygenerationislowduetothelackofwindandsunlight.
24 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
Decarbonisation of the energy system comes with an uptake of the hydrogen demand
Asaconsequenceofanincreasingvolumeofhydrogengeneration,theCOP21scenariosconsidercontrastedde-velopmentofthehydrogendemandthatcouldmaterialisetomakeuseofthispotential:
- DistributedEnergyconsidersahigherpenetrationofP2GtechnologieswithsignificantvolumesproducedmorelocallyandthusasimilardevelopmentoftheHydrogendemand.
- GlobalAmbitionconsidersamorecentraliseddecarbon-isationwheretheincreasingdemandismainlysuppliedbypre-combustivehydrogenproduction.
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Figure14:TotalmethaneandhydrogendemandinCOP21scenarios
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 25
6.2 Supply
6.2.1 Primary energy supply
FortheCOP21Scenarios,theoverallenergymixbecomescarbon-neutralby2050.Tofullydecarbonize,bothCOP21ScenariosregisterasignificantincreaseinbothrenewablesandfurtherCO₂removaltechnologies,whilereducingprimaryenergydemand.Whereasbothscenariosreachsimilarlevelsofprimaryenergydemanddecreaseofaround40 %comparedto2015,theRESshareinGlobalAmbitionreaches69 %by2050butisstilloutbidbyDistributedEnergywithaRESshareof82 %.
Thevastmajorityofenergystemsfromrenewables.In2050,wind,solarandhydrocoverroughly52 %ofprimaryenergydemandinEuropewithinthescenarioDistributedEnergyandabout34 %inGlobalAmbition,whilenuclearasaCO₂neutralgenerationsourcecontributesbetween6and9 %.Biomassandenergyfromwastematerialscontributesignificantly–inDistributedEnergytheycover22 %andinGlobalAmbition28 %oftheprimaryenergymix.
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Figure16:PrimaryenergymixandRESshareinGlobalAmbition(EU28)
Figure15:PrimaryenergymixandRESshareinDistributedEnergy(EU28)
26 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
Biomasscanbedirectlyusedinindustrialprocesses,orasfeedstocktoproducebiofuelsorbiomethane–bothcanbeusedinallsectors,withamainfocusinpowergeneration,transportandheating.SincecoalisassumedtobephasedoutinEuropeby2040,theremainingdemandiscoveredbyoil,nuclearandgasimports.Theincreaseinrenewableenergyproductionresultsindeclining“all-energy”import
15 Forthecalculationofimportshares,itisassumedthatalloilandnuclearenergyisimportedin2050.
shares,from55 %to60 %nowadays,toca.18 %inDistrib-utedEnergyand31 %inGlobalAmbition 15.
AkeyenablerforthetransitionistheconversionofwindandsolarpowertoP2GandP2L,whichbalancesthevaria-bleelectricitysupplytoenergydemandandallowsutiliza-tionofenergysourcedfromrenewableelectricityinfinalconsumptionsectorswhenthereisnoelectricitydemand.
6.2.2 Electricity
IntheCOP21Scenarios,theelectricitymixbecomescar-bonneutralby2040.InEU-28,electricityfromrenewablesourcesmeetsupto64 %ofpowerdemandin2030and78 %in2040.Variablerenewables( windandsolar )playakeyroleinthistransition,astheirshareintheelectricitymixgrowstoupto44 %by2030and61 %by2040.
Theremainingrenewablecapacityconsistsofbiofuelsandhydro.AllfiguresstatedaboveexcludepowerdedicatedforP2Xuse,whichisassumedtobeentirelyfromcurtailedRES,andnewlybuildrenewablesthatarenotgrid-connect-ed,andthereforenotconsideredinthisrepresentation.
There is an increase in renewable capacity foreseen in all scenarios ……butthespeedoftheuptakeiscontingentonthestory-lineassociatedwitheachscenario.
DistributedEnergyisthescenariowiththehighestinvest-mentingenerationcapacity,drivenmainlybythehighestlevelofelectricaldemand.DistributedEnergymainlyfo-cusesonthedevelopmentofsolarPV.Thistechnologyhas
thelowestloadfactor,asresultsolarPVinstalledcapacitywillbehighercomparedtooffshoreoronshorewindtomeetthesameenergyrequirement.Thescenarioshowsalargergrowthinonshorewindafter2030.
In2030,solarcovers14 %ofthetotalelectricalenergyandwindcovers29 %.In2040,solarcovers18 %oftheelectricalenergyand41 %comesfromwind.Thescenarioalsoshowstheleastamountofelectricityproducedfromnuclearoutofthethreescenarios,providing16 %ofelec-tricityin2030and10 %in2040.
GlobalAmbitionhasalowerelectricitydemand,withageneraltrendofhighernuclearandreducedpricesofoffshorewind.Consequently,thecapacityrequiredforthisscenarioisthelowestasmoreenergyisproducedperMWofinstalledcapacityinoffshorewind.Nuclearprovides19 %ofenergyin2030andreducingto12 %in2040.In2030,solarcovers10 %ofthetotalelectricalenergyandwindcovers31 %.In2040,solarcovers13 %oftheelectricalenergyand44 %comesfromwind.
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Figure17:ShareoffinalelectricitydemandcoveredbyRES
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 27
NationalTrendsisthenationalpolicy-basedscenario.Thevariablerenewablegenerationrestsbetweenthetwotopdownscenarios.In2030,Solarcovers12 %ofthetotalelectricalenergyandwindcover29 %.In2040,Solarcovers15 %oftheelectricalenergyand41 %comesfromwind.17 %ofelectricalenergyisstillproducedfromnu-clearin2030,reducingto12 %in2040.
Thescenariosincluderepoweringofrenewablegenerationtechnologiesin2040resultingintheintegrationofloadhours.
Sharesofcoalforelectricitygenerationdecreaseinallsce-narios.Thisisduetonationalpoliciesoncoalphase-out,suchasstatedbyUKandItalyorplannedbyGermany.Coalgenerationmovesfrom8 %in2025,to3 %–6 %in2030andnegligibleamountsin2040.
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Figure18:ElectricitygenerationmixinDistributedEnergy(EU28)
Figure19:ElectricitycapacitymixinDistributedEnergy(EU28)
28 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
Gas,however,hasashareof20 %in2025,whichreducesin2040to10–12 %.Itisimportanttonotelevelofdecar-bonisedandrenewablegasesinthegasmix,increasesto13 %in2030and54 %in2040.DistributedEnergystartstoshowaneedforCCSin2040,whichwillleadtonega-tiveemissionsinplantsburningbiomethane.
ConsiderationsonOtherNon-Renewables( mainlysmallerscaleCHPs )sourceareimportantfordecarbonisation.Asitstands,carbon-basedfuelsarestillwidelyusedinCHPplantsthroughoutEurope.Thisincludesoil,lignite,coalandgas.Inordertofollowthethermalphase-outstorylines,oil,coalandligniteshouldbephasedoutby2040andreplacedwithcleanerenergysources.Gaswillcontributetodecarbonisationbyincreasingsharesofrenewableanddecarbonisedgas.
OtherREScontainsgenerationtechnologiessuchasma-rine,smallbiofuelandgeothermal.Thegenerationfromthiscollectionoftechnologiesremainsstableinallscenarios.
Generationfromhydro increases in2030duetoanincreaseincapacityfrom145 GWin2025to174 GWin2030butremainsstableafter2030.Ashydropotentialisdeterminedbyveryspecificconditions,bottomupdataisusedforallscenarios.
Thermalcapacitiesarereduced,notonlytonationalphase-outpolicies,butthefactthatsomegenerationunitswillnolongerbeeconomicallyviableduetoreducedrunninghoursorwillreachtheendoftheirlifetime.
Thescenariosshowthatthereispotentialfordemandsidetechnologiesandbatteriestotakepartinthemarketandhelptosmoothendemandpeaksandlevelprices.Whiletheimpactofthesetechnologiesintermsofenergymaybelow,theyshowavastpotentialtoreducegenerationfromcarbonbasedpeakingunits,supportingdecarbonisation,contributetowardssystemadequacyatlowercostsandhelptointegrateincreasinglyvariableelectricitygeneration.
DistributedEnergyshowsthehighestincreaseinusageofthesetechnologiesin2030,whilsttheotherscenariosincorporaterelativelymoderatetolowusage.DistributedEnergyshowsmoreuseofdemandsideresourcesasthecostofresidentialsolarandbatterysystemsarediscounted.In2040,thereisamuchlargerincreaseinuseofbatterytechnologiesinallscenarios,themostnoticeableareDistributedEnergyandNationalTrends.
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Figure20:Peakgeneration,demandsideresponseandbatterytechnology(EU28)
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 29
6.2.3 Gas
6.2.3.1 Gas supply potentials
Indigenous production: contrasted views captured by the COP21 scenarios
Allscenariosconsidersimilardecreaseoftheconventionalindigenousproduction.However,theassumptionsontheindigenousrenewablegasproduction,suchasbiomethaneandP2G,differacrossthescenarios:
- 2020and2025relyonBestEstimatesfortheTSOs.Duetothedecreasingdomesticconventionalgasproductionandratherstablegasdemand,gasimportswillincrease.
- NationalTrendsreliesonbottom-updatafortheindigenousproductionfornaturalgas( includingun-conventionalgas,suchasshalegas )andbiomethane.Additionally,P2Gisaddedassumingthatcurtailedelec-tricitywillbeusedtoproducehydrogenandsyntheticmethane.
- DistributedEnergyconsidersasignificantuptakeoflocalrenewablegasproductionsupplying65 %oftheEUgasconsumptionin2050.Consideringagraduallydecreasinggasdemandafter2025,gas importsdecreaseby70 %comparedtotoday’slevel.
- GlobalAmbitionscenarioconsiderstheuptakeofrenewablegasproductioncapacitiestoalesserextentwithamoreimport-orientedvisionandlarge-scaledecarbonisation.Importsrepresent70 %oftheEUgasconsumptionin2050.Consideringagraduallydecreas-inggasdemandafter2025,gasimportsstilldecreaseby30 %comparedtotoday’slevel.
Thecontrastedapproachtowardsthesupplyconfigura-tionsisessentialwhenassessingtheinfrastructureforthenexttwentyyearssinceitdirectlyimpactsthewaytheEuropeangassystemisused.
Enough gas potential to satisfy the EU demand until 2050
AllscenariosconsideramaximumutilisationofindigenousproductionintheEuropeangassupplymixuntil2050.ThesupplypotentialassessmentrunbyENTSOGanddiscussedwithstakeholdersinJuly2019 16concludesthatforallsce-narios,theimportpotentialsarehighenoughtoensurethesupplyanddemandadequacyoftheEUuntil2050.Thisisdespitethedeclineoftheconventionalindigenous
16 https://www.entsog.eu/entsog-workshop-supply-potentials-and-market-related-assumptions-tyndp-2020#
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Figure21–23:NationalTrends,DistributedEnergy,GlobalAmbition
30 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
production.Inthisregard,itcanbehighlightedthattheDutchGovernmenthasdecidedtostopproductionatGro-ningen,Europe’slargestonshorenaturalgasfield,by2022.Additionally,thesupplymixwillbefurtherdiversifiedwithnewsourceslookingtowards2050.
Furthermore,whilstNorwegiansupplyisproducedinEurope,itisconsideredasanimportsourcetotheEUsinceNorwayisnotaMemberoftheUnion.
The import supply mix will be dominated by gas from Russia, Norway and LNG
Eventhoughthesupplymixwillbediversified,theimportsupplymixwillstillbedominatedbythecurrentthreelargestsupplysources:Russia,Norwayandliquefiednat-uralgas( LNG ).Whichofthesesources,whowillhavethelargestshareoftheimportsupplymix,willbedependentonmarketprices,andthesupplychain’sadaptationofthegrowingdemandfordecarbonisedgases.
Figure21,Figure22andFigure23highlighttheadequacyofscenariospecificgasdemandandsupply.Supplyissplitintothreecategories:
- TotalEUindigenousProductioncoversalldomesticproductionofconventionalnaturalgas,biomethaneandP2Gforbothhydrogenandmethane.
- MinimumExtra-EUSupplyPotentials:minimumgasim-portsbasedonlong-termcontractsandtheirassumedprolongation
- AdditionalSupplyPotential:additionalgasimportsoptionswhichwillbeusedbasedonarbitrage
Allscenariosshowenoughsupplypotentialstomeetthefuturedemand.
6.2.3.2 Gas supply composition
A technology neutral approach
Thedecarbonisationofthegassupplycanbedoneinmanyways.GascaneitherbeproducedfromrenewableenergysuchasbiomethaneorhydrogenfromP2G,butitcanalsobedecarbonisedfromconventionalnaturalgaswithdifferenttechnologiessuchassteammethanereforming( associatedwithcarboncaptureandsequestrationpro-cess )orpyrolysis.
EachtechnologycomeswithitslevelofdecarbonisationthatisconsideredinthecomputationoftheGHGemis-sionsofeachscenariotokeeptrackoftheircarbonbudgetexpenses.Forinstance,biomethanecanbeconsideredas
carbonneutralorcarbonnegativeifassociatedwithCCS( thereforeincludedinBio-EnergyCarbonCaptureandSe-questration( BECCS )category ).However,CCSprocessescomewithefficiencyfactorstoaccountforthepartoftheCO₂thatcannotbecapturedintheprocessandthatisthereforereleasedintheatmosphere.
Inordertocaptureallpossibleimpactsofthedevelopmentofoneoranothertechnology,thescenarioscomewithcontrastedassumptionsregardingthepenetrationofre-newableordecarbonisedgasesinthesupplymixoftheEU.
A source neutral approach
TYNDP2020scenariosconsidercontrastedpossibledevelopmentsofthegasdemandincludingdifferentgasqualities.ENTSOGandENTSO-Ehaveimprovedtheirmethodologyandintroducedamoredetailedbreakdownofthegasdemandbetweenmethaneandhydrogen.
However,therearedifferenttechnologicalwaysboththosedemandscanbesatisfied.Methaneandhydrogendemandscanofcourseprimarilybesatisfiedrespectivelybymeth-aneandhydrogenproduction.However,dependingonthepenetrationofthedifferentgenerationtechnologies,methanecanbedecarbonisedtogeneratehydrogenandthereforesatisfythehydrogendemand.Ontheotherhand,hydrogencanbemethanisedtocreatemethaneandthereforesatisfythemethanedemand.Itshouldbenotedthatanyconversionprocessincorporatesenergylossestakenintoaccountasefficiencyfactorswhenbuildingthescenarios.
InlinewiththeneutralapproachofENTSOGtowardstheinfrastructuresubmittedtoTYNDP,thescenariosaretech-nologyneutral.Therefore,unlessapieceofinfrastructureisactuallycommissionednochoiceismadebyENTSOGandthescenariosdonotpre-emptthelocationoftheconversionofthegassupplytosatisfythedemand.Theconversioncouldthereforebecentralisedattransmissionlevelorbedecentralisedatcity/consumergate.
6.2.3.2.1 National Trends
ThegassupplymixconsideredinNationalTrendsreflectsthecurrentEuropeantargetsandrespectiveMemberStates’NECPs.ThelevelofinformationregardingthegassupplymixcanbeverydifferentdependingonhowthetargetsaresetintheNECPs.Thus,duetolackofconsistencybetweentheindividualNECPs,thegassupplymixforNationalTrendsisnotsplitintodifferentgasqualities.Basedoninformationavailablefordemandandnationalproduction,NationalTrendswillrequiresimilargasimportslevelsastoday,withapeakof4,000 TWhin2025.
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 31
TWh (GCV) National Trends
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Unabated Abated Imports for Hydrogen Demand**Imports for Methane Demand*Figure24:Gassourcecomposition–NationalTrends
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Figure25:Gassourcecomposition–DistributedEnergy
Figure26:Gassourcecomposition–GlobalAmbition
32 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
6.2.3.2.2 Distributed Energy Scenario
Asadecentralisedscenario,DistributedEnergyconsidersahighlevelofindigenousproductionofrenewablegas.Sincebothdecarbonisationandahigherself-sufficiencyarethemaindriversoftheDistributedEnergyScenario,itrequiresasignificantincreaseinrenewableelectricitygenerationtomeettheP2Gdemand.Moreover,withalmost1,000 TWhDistributedEnergyprojectsthehighestbiomethaneproductionofallscenarios.Ontheotherside,importsarereducedby70 %between2020and2050,accountingfor2,386 TWhin2040,and1,050 TWhin2050.Thelevelofimportsisthelowestofallthescenariosandtoreachcarbonneutralityby2050meansthattheremainingimportsmustbedecarbonisedorrenewablebythen.However,aimingfordecarbonisationrequiresasignificantincreaseinrenewableelectricitygenerationtomeettheP2Gdemand.
6.2.3.2.3 Global Ambition
Asacentralisedscenario,GlobalAmbitioncombinesbothhighdecarbonisationlevelswithaglobalgassupplyandaccesstoavarietyofsources.However,thankstogeneraldemanddecreasealsoimportsdecreaseby25 %by2050comparedtocurrentlevels( –830 TWh ).Toreachcarbonneutralitygasimportstobedecarbonisedorrenewablebythenareofalargerscale( 2,670 TWh/y )thaninDistributedEnergy.
BothP2GaswellasBiomethanearehigherthan inNationalTrendsbutlowercomparedtoDistributedEnergy.Togethertheycontributewith1,150 TWhby2050.
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 33
6.3 Sector Coupling: Capacity and Generation for P2G and P2L
DistributedEnergyhasasignificantlyhigherdemandforEUproducedhydrogen,syntheticmethaneandliquidsthanGlobalAmbitionin2030and2040.TheDistributedEner-gystorylineassumesareductionby70 %ofgasimportsby2050( from3,700 TWhin2020downto1,050 TWhin2050 )combinedwiththedecarbonisationofthegassupply.Italsoassumesaquasiphase-outoffossiloilby2050replacedbyEuropeanbiofuelandP2L.
DistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionhaveaspecificdemandfordomesticallyproducedhydrogen.Inthesescenarios,P2GandP2Lplantsareoperatedoutsidetheenergymarkets,usingdedicatedrenewables,butthe
curtailedelectricityfromthemarketisusedtofeedtheseplants.NationalTrendsdoesnothaveaspecifictopdowndemandforhydrogen,thereforethepower-to-gasplantsarebuiltsolelybasedoncurtailedrenewables.
IntheCOP21scenarios,themainsourceusedforelectrol-ysisisoffshorewind,butwhereregionalconstraintsexist,onshorewindandsolarPVwillbethealternative.
Thegenerationprofilesmatchthecapacitiesbuild.ThereismoreREScapacityinDistributedEnergy2040there-foreitisnaturalthatthereismorecurtailedenergyinthisscenario.
GW Capacities for Hydrogen and derived fuels production
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Figure28:Generationmixforhydrogenandderivedfuels
34 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
6.4 Reduction in overall EU28 CO2 Emissions and necessary measures
17 IPCCspecialreportontheimpactsofglobalwarmingof1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandrelatedglobalgreenhousegasemissionpathways,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,2018
FollowingtheEU’s long-termgoal,NationalTrendistreatedtoreach80 %to95 %ofdecarbonisationby2050.Althoughthecommonlyagreedtargetfor2030is40 %GHGemissionreduction,thelatestadoptionstothe2030climateandenergyframework( 32,5 %improvementinenergyefficiency,32 %shareforrenewableenergy )willconsequentlyresultinhigherGHGemissionsreductions.ThisisalsoshownbytheEuropeanCommission’sLong-termStrategyScenarios.Ontheotherhand,theCOP21scenariosgoforcarbonneutralityby2050,assuggestedbythelatestIPCCSpecialReport 17andtargetedbytheEuropeanCommission.
AsmentionedinSection6.2.1,bothCOP21Scenariosregisterasignificantdecreaseinprimaryenergydemand
withincreasingsharesofrenewables,mainlybiomassandvariableelectricity( bothfordirectuseandP2Gproduc-tion ).Whereaselectricitygenerationhasalreadyfacedsomeleveloftransition,othercarrierssuchasgasneedtofollow.ENTSOs’scenariobuildingexerciseshowsthattodecarboniseallsectorsaswellasallfueltypes,addi-tionalmeasuressuchasCCU/S,alsoincombinationwithbioenergy,areneeded.Fulldecarbonisationalsoneedsthecontributionofnon-energyrelatedsectors,suchasthedecarbonisationofagriculture/meatproductionandfurtherafforestation.Itshouldbenoted,thatforGHGemissionsrelatedtonon-CO₂emissions( e. g.methaneemissions )andLULUFC,ENTSOs’scenariosrelyontheaveragegivenbythe1.5TECHand1.5LIFEscenariosoftheEuropeanCommission’sLong-termStrategy.
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Figure29:GHGemissionreductionpathwaysuntil2050
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 35
Electricity Generation
In2030theelectricitysectorproducesemissionsofbe-tween363and402MtCO₂,areductionofaround76 %ascomparedto1990.DistributedEnergyshowsthelargesttheemissionreductionisonparwithNationalTrends.IntheCOP21Scenarios,theelectricitymixbecomesalmostcarbonneutralby2040withemissionsof74MtCO₂inDistributedEnergyand87MtCO₂inGlobalAmbition.Inthiscasebothscenarioshavethegasbeforecoalmeritorder,butasthedemandishigherinDistributedEnergy,
thereismoreconsumptionofbothgasandcoal.However,tomeettheambitioustargetsintheelectricitygeneration,fuelinputintosmallscaleCHP,mainlygas,needstobe83 %decarbonised.Moreover,inDistributedEnergyalsoCCU/SneedstobeappliedtoCCGTsby2040.
NationalTrendsseesemissionsof196MtCO₂,ontargetwiththe2°CscenariosshownintheLong-termStrategyfromtheEuropeanCommission.
Gas supply
Gasasanenergycarrierwithincreasingsharesofrenew-ableanddecarbonisedgasesplaysakeyroleinthede-carbonisationoftheeconomy.BiomethaneandrenewablegasesproducedviaP2GdonothaveCO₂emissions,butifCCU/S( post-combustiveorduringtheproductionofbiomethane )isappliedtheirconsumptioncanevenleadtonegativeemissions.Apartfromindigenouslyproducedrenewablegases,alsotheconsumednaturalgasneedstobedecarbonisedwithcarboncapturetechnologies,eitherpre-combustiveincombinationwithsteammeth-anereformingormethanepyrolysis,orpost-combustiveinlarge-scaleindustrialsitesorpowerplants.However,post-combustiveCCSmaymostlybeappliedtolargescaleprocesssuchasindustrialsitesorpowerplantsanditscarboncapturerateisusuallyaround90 %.
InDistributedEnergyin2050,65 %ofthegaswillberenew-able,butfortheother35 %needstobedecarbonisedwithcarboncapturetechnologies:in2050,tobecarbon-neutral,90MtCO₂needtobecapturedduringtheconversionofnaturalgasintohydrogenandadditionally50MtCO₂needtoberemovedpost-combustiveatindustrialsites.
Figure31showstheemissionsrelatedtotheconsump-tionofgasesandtheaveragecarbonintensity( inkgCO₂/kWh )ofthegasmixinDistributedEnergy.Duetoabovementionedrestrictionsforpost-combustiveCCS,theCO₂intensityofthegasmixdecreasesby86 %inDistributedEnergyby2050comparedtoconventionalnaturalgas.
Duetohigherimports,GlobalAmbitionseesabroaderneedforCCU/Stodecarbonisethegasmixtoreachcar-bonneutrality.Toproducehydrogenfromnaturalgasupto264MtCO₂/yearneedtobecapturedandstoredorused.Additionally,upto83MtCO₂/yearneedtoberemovedpost-combustive.Furthermore,88MtCO₂needstobecapturedfrombiomethane,whichallowsfornegativeemis-sions.TheCO₂intensityofgasdecreasesby86 %inGlobalAmbitionin2050comparedtoconventionalnaturalgas.
InthiscontextENTSOGandENTSO-E’assumptionsontheneedandapplicationofCCSareguidedbytheEuropeanCommission’sLong-termStrategyanditsmostambitious1.5°Cscenarios:1.5LIFEand1.5TECHseethenecessityof281to606MtCO₂captured( seesection8.5forabench-markwiththesescenarios ).
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Figure30:CO²emissionsintheElectricityGeneration
36 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
Total CO� emissions in Mt CO� CO� intensity of Gas mix in kg CO�/kWh
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Figure31:DecarbonisationpathofgasinDistributedEnergy
CO� intensity of Gas mix
Decarbonisation of Gas: Global AmbitionTotal CO� emissions in Mt CO� CO� intensity of Gas mix in kg CO�/kWh
*decarbonised, either by natural gas imports with post-combustive CCU/s or any other technology**natural gas converted to hydrogen at import point/city gate or direct hydrogen imports
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Figure32:DecarbonisationpathofgasinGlobalAmbition
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 37
TheCO₂priceandelectricitydemanddirectlyaffectthemarginalcostofthescenarios.DistributedEnergyhasthehighestCO₂priceandelectricitydemandinbothtime-frames,thereforethemarginalcostisthehighest.Thecostassumptionsofwindandsolar,influencetheCO₂pricehavinganeffectontheLevelizedcostofelectricityineachmarketnode,andtheelectricitymarginalcostsofthescenarios.
Levelised cost of electricity
Acrossallthescenariosnewcapacityforelectricitygen-erationcomesmainlyfromwindandsolarpower.Globaltrendsshowthatincentives,innovation,andinvestmenthavematuredthesolarandwindindustry;theirlevelisedcostsofelectricity( LCOE )issignificantlylowercomparedtootherlowcarbongenerationtechnologies,suchastidalorCCGTswithCCS.
Electricity Costs
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Figure33:Marginalcosts
7
38 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
ApowersysteminvestmentmodelreliesontheLCOEofaparticulartechnologytomakedecisionsonwhetheritcanbebuilt.TheinvestmentmodelensuresthattheCAPEXandfixedcostsofatechnologyarerecoveredovertheeconomic/technicallifetimeoftheinvestment.AnnexIIprovidesanoverviewoftheinvestmentCAPEXandfixedcostassumptionsforeachofthetechnologiesconsideredbythescenariobuildingprocess.
Thedecisiontobuildaparticulartechnologyisdrivenbytheachievedelectricitypriceforaparticularmarketarea,i. e.theweightedaveragepricefromhourswhenthewind/solargeneratorisproducing,whichisimpactedbygeneralsupply/demandsituationandtheamountofpreviouslyin-stalledcapacityofthesametechnology.Typicallyinanin-vestmentmodelwillpreventoverinvestmentinaparticulartechnology,suchasSolarPV,assimilaroutputprofilesreducethemarginalprice,sothatfurtherinvestmentisnoteconomicallyviable.Furthermore,thecostandavailabilityofflexibilitiessuchasinterconnectionorstorage,suchasP2Xandbatteries,impacttheinvestmentdecisions,sincehigheramountsofstoragemayimprovetheachievedpriceforvariablerenewabletechnologies.
ConventionalandRenewableLCOEarevariableandde-pendentondifferingfactors.TheLCOEofRenewableen-ergysourcesareimpactedbyresourceavailabilitybothinageographicalandclimaticsense.ThecostoftechnologyforresidentialPVistypicallystableacrossEuropehowevertheabilitytoconverttheenergytoelectriciswhollyde-pendentonthegeographicallocation,basedonourCostassumptionsforDE2040SpaincouldachieveanLCOEof~€17/MWhcomparedto~€40/MWhFinlandforthesameinvestmentcost,thedifferenceisdrivenentirelybythefactsthataSpainPVyieldsapprox.22 %energyfrom1MWcomparedto9 %energyfrom1MWinFinland.
Thedecisiononbuildingnewconventionalthermalplantsisnotadependentonlocation,butrathertheSRMCandtheresidualdemandonthesystem.Thedecisiontobuildnewconventionalplantwillbebasedontheneedtomeettheresidualdemandandensuresecurityofsupplyforaparticularmarket.Thechartsshowsdemonstratethatinthelongtermhorizonrenewableenergyismorecosteffec-tivethanthermalgeneration.Thevariabilityofrenewablehowevermeansthatbackupsupplyismorecritical,theinvestmentdecisiontobuildthermalswillrelyonwhetherornotsecurityofsupplyishighlightedinamarketareaandhighpricesignalsenablethebuildingofbaseloadorpeakingthermalplant.TypicallyOCGTorLightoilunitswillrecovercostoverasmallnumberofhourswhereasbase-loadormid-meritplantswillrequireasignificantnumberofhourswherethepriceishighenoughtomakeaneconomicdecisiontobuild.
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Figure34:SolarPVCapacityFactor
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
Solar PV
Average 43 % 28 % 14 %
Max 51 % 40 % 22 %
Min 27 % 19 % 9 %
Table5:WindandSolarCapacityFactorCharacteristics
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 39
OuranalysisshowsthatinvestmentinnewconventionalformsofenergysuchasnuclearandCCGTswithCCSaredifficultduetothehighCAPEXandtheneedforhighoperationalhour’s60-70 %ofGasCCGTsand80-85 %forCCGTwithCCSandNuclearpowerplants.
GlobalAmbitionassumesverystrongcostreductionsforoffshorewind,withoffshorewindeconomicalcompetitivetoonshorewindandsolarPV.DistributedEnergyassumesstrongreductioninsolarPVcosts.Windonshoreisgen-erallycompetitiveinbothscenarios.SolarPVisgenerallymostcompetitiveinSouthernEurope,whereasonshorewindisparticularlycompetitiveinNorthernandWesternEurope.Foroffshorewind,thelowestcoststakeplaceinNorthSeaandsouthernBalticSearegions.
€/MWh LCOE: Global Ambition 2040
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€/MWh LCOE: Distributed Energy 2040
Figure35:RESLCOEinGlobalAmbition2040
Figure36:RESLCOEinDistributedEnergy2040
40 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
Aliteraryreviewofrelevantexternalstudiesisabestprac-ticeapproachwhenundertakingacomplextasksuchasdevelopingscenarioforENTSOGandENTSO-EandEU28perimeter.ThepurposeoftheexerciseistounderstandwhetherornottheinputassumptionsandmethodologiesthatENTSOsemployresultincredibleandplausibleout-comescomparetootherexpertopinionandmethods.
Aspartofourinternalqualityprocessforscenariobuilding,ENTSOGandENTSO-EhavecomparedtheirTYNDP2020ScenariostotheEuropeanCommission’sScenarios:
a) EUCO32/32.5scenario( EC,2018 ).b) ACleanPlanetforall–AEuropeanlong-termstrategicvisionforaprosperous,modern, competitiveandclimateneutraleconomy”( EC,2018 ),inparticularwith
a. BaselineScenario( “Baseline” ) b. 1.5TECHScenario( “1.5TECH” ) c. 1.5LIFEScenario( “1.5LIFE” )
Itisacknowledgedthattherearedifferentapproachesandpurposesforbothlistedstudies.ThestudieseachhaveaviewontheEU28electricityandgassectors.Itispossibletocreateplausiblerangesforscenarioparameterssuchas,lowtohighrangesfordemand;EVuptake,HeatPumpuptake;installedcapacityforgeneration,lowtohighrangegasforimportsetc.InthefollowingsectionsENTSOshavefocusedtheirbenchmarkingontheoverallelectricityandgasdemand,electrificationandgassupply.
Benchmarking8
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 41
8.1 Final Electricity Demand
ThehighestfinalelectricitydemandcorrespondstoDis-tributedEnergy,withtheactualgrowthbeingduetotheverystrongincreaseinelectricvehiclesandheatpumps.TheGlobalAmbitionscenariohasthelowestfinalelectric-itydemand,duetothehighergasshare.
Electrification rates
Thefinalelectricityenergydemanddividedbyfinalener-gydemandindicatesthedirectelectrificationofdifferentscenarios.Thegeneralincreaseintheshareofelectricityinfinalusedemand,illustratesthatelectrificationisonekeydrivertryingtoachieveasufficientdecarbonizationupto2050.TheelectrificationtrajectoriesoftheTYNDP2020scenarios3–4percentagepointsaboveorbelowtheECLTS1.5scenarios.Asdisplayedfortheyear2050,theDis-
tributedEnergyscenariosachievesanelectrificationrateof54 %pointsabovethe1.5TECHscenario.TheGlobalAmbitionscenarioachievesanelectrificationrateof47 %,2pointsbelowthe1.5LIFEscenario.
Thesectorialbreakdownsoftheindustry,residentialandcommercialsectorsillustratethattheCOP21scenariosare,withregardtoelectrification,intheorderofmagnitudecomparedtotheECLTSscenarios.
Asimilarstatementcanalsobemadetothetransportsectorforthemid-termhorizon( 2030and2040 ),wheretheelectrificationisintheballparkofotherexternalsce-narios.For2050,thetransportelectrificationinENTSOGandENTSO-ECOP21scenariosmatchestheEC’s1.5TECHscenario.
2030 203520252015 2020 2040 2045 2050
60 %
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20 %
Global AmbitionTYNDP 2020: EUCO reference case 2016 EU LTS Baseline Distributed Energy
Direct electrification rate
EC 1.5 TECH
EC 1.5 LIFE
EC 1.5 LIFE
Figure38:BenchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationrateforEU28
TWh Direct Electricity Demand
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TYNDP 2020: Global AmbitionNational Trend Distributed EnergyEUCO reference case 2016 EU LTS Baseline
EC 1.5 TECHEC 1.5 LIFE
Figure37:Benchmarkingofprojectedelectricitydemandandwind/solargenerationforEU28
42 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
Electrification rate – Industry
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Figure39:BenchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationintheindustrialsectorforEU28
Figure40:BenchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationofresidentialandcommercialsectorsinEU28
Figure41:BenchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationinthetransportsectorforEU28
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 43
8.2 Gas demand
AlthoughENTSOsscenariosfollowtheirspecificassump-tionsandmethodologies,theyaredesignedtomeetthesameEUclimateobjectivesasotherexternalscenarios.
ENTSOs scenarios in the range of EC scenarios
Inthetimeframe2020–2040,NationalTrendsprojectsca.10 %highergasdemandthanEUCO32/32.5andtheBaselinescenario.Partofthedifferencecanbeexplained
bynationalcoal-phaseoutpoliciescapturedbyNationalTrendstakingintoaccountlatestinformationfromtheNECPsornationalclimatestrategies( suchastheGermancoal-phaseout ).
In2050,DistributedEnergyreachestheEUclimatetargetswith3,000 TWhrangingbetween1.5TECHand1.5LIFE.GlobalAmbitionreachesthesameobjectiveswithagasdemandof3,800 TWh,rangingabove1.5TECH.
TWh (GCV) Total gas demand (Methane + Hydrogen)
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Gas before Coal SenstitivityGlobal Ambition
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EUCO32/32.5 GCVtotal demand
Figure42:Totalprimarygasdemand–BenchmarkwithECLongTermStrategy
44 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
Gas demand for final use and for power generation follow different evolutions
Whenlookingintothegasdemandmoreindetail,thetotalgasdemand( methaneandhydrogen )canbedividedinthegasdemandforfinaluse,wheregasisdirectlyusedasenergy( inresidential,tertiary,industryandtransport )orasfeedstock( onlyindustry )andthegasdemandforpowergeneration,wherethegasisconvertedintoelectricityinpowerplants,CHPorinthelongrunfuelcells.
Till2025,allTYNDPscenariosshowhighalignmentwiththeEUCO32/32.5scenarioforbothdemandcategories.For2030,TheTYNDPscenariosshowdifferentdemanddevelopmentscomparedtotheEUCO32/32.5scenario.
- Final demand:Withregardtothegasfinaldemand,theTYNDPScenariosconsidermoregasinsectorssuchastransportandindustrycomparedtotheEUCO32/32.5scenario,whichalsoleadaslightlyhigherdemand.
- Power Demand:IncaseofNationalTrends,thediffer-encecanbeexplainedbyrecentlystatedpoliciesandtheirreflectionintheNECPs.IncaseofDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition,thereasonistwofolded:bothscenarioscombineahigherelectricitydemandwithanearlycoal-phaseout.Thecombinationleadstoanincreasingroleforgasinpowergeneration.
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TWh (GCV) Methane + Hydrogen demand
Gas demand for final use
Gas demand for power generation
Gas before Coal
Figure43:Primarygasdemandforfinaluseandforpowergeneration
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 45
8.3 Renewable gas supply
Therenewablegasproductioninthenextthirtyyearscanbedividedinthreedifferentcategories:productionofbiomethane,Power-to-Methane( P2CH4 )andPower-to-Hydrogen( P2H2 ).
Biomethane in the range of EC LTS scenarios and Gas for Climate study
BiomethanegenerationinGlobalAmbitioniscomparableto1.5TECHand1.5LIFEscenariosofECLTS,whereasDistributedEnergyconsidersahighergenerationofbiom-ethanewithintheEUcomparabletotheP2Xscenario.withNationalTrendshavingthemostlimitedpenetrationofbiomethane,allscenariosarethereforeintherangeofthe
ECLong-TermStrategy.Additionally,DistributedEnergyshowscomparablegenerationtotheGasforClimatestudybyNavigant( 1,200 TWhingrosscalorificvalue ).
Power-to-gas sees a limited development compared to EC LTS
Asaresultoftheassumptionsonthegenerationpoten-tialaswellasthedevelopmentrateofP2Gtechnologies,ENTSOGandENTSO-Escenariosalllookmoreconserva-tivethanECLTS,explainingthelimitedgapbetweentheoverallindigenousgenerationconsideredinECLTSandENTSOsscenarios.
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Figure44:Renewablegasproduction–ENTSOsvsECLTS(P2X,1.5TECH,1.5LIFE)
46 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
8.4 Energy imports
Thefigurebelowcomparestheenergyimportin2050betweenENTSOsandECLTSscenarios.AsDistributedEnergyfocusesonhigherEuropeanself-sufficiency,thisscenarioforeseesthelowestlevelsofenergyimport.EvenwellbelowtheenergyimportsintheECLTSscenarios.TotalenergyimportinGlobalAmbitionisquitecomparablewithboth1.5TECHand1.5LIFEscenarios.Thetypeofen-ergycarrier,whichareimporteddiffer,however.ComparedtotheECscenarios,GlobalAmbitionforeseeslessimportofoilandmoreimportof( renewable )gas.Thehighergasimporthoweverstemsexplicitlyfromthescenariostorylineofthisscenario.Furthermore,comparedtotheLTSbase-linescenariothegasimportsinGlobalAmbitionarestillreasonable.
Figure46presentsthedevelopmentsofgasimportsovertime.Althoughgasimportmightseelimitedincreaseinthenextfiveyears,allscenariosforeseeadecreaseingasim-portafter2025.Withhighsharesofindigenouslyproducedrenewablegases,DistributedEnergyshowsalignmentwithEC’smostambitious1.5TECHScenario.Ontheotherhand,GlobalAmbitionshowsabalanceddevelopmentofgasimportsonatrajectorywhichseemssimilartotheNECPbasedNationalTrends.
Thedifferenceinimportsfor2020reflectstherecentreductionofGroningenfieldproductiondecidedbytheNetherlands,whichisnotconsideredintheotherexternalscenarios( EUCO32/32.5inparticular ).
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Figure46:Gasimportsperscenarioandperyear
Figure45:Energyimportsin2050byenergycarrier
*decarbonised,eitherbynaturalgasimportswithpost-combustiveCCU/soranyothertechnology **naturalgasconvertedtohydrogenatimportpoint/citygateordirecthydrogenimports
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 47
8.5 Carbon Capture and Storage
BothDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionscenariosshowanincreasedapplicationofcarboncaptureandstor-age( CCS ).DistributedEnergyforeseesaboutagrowthofupto130MTperyearin2050.ThisisslightlyaboveECLTS1.5LIFE,butwellbelowEC1.5TECH.GlobalAmbitiondoesexceedECLTSscenarioshowever.ButincomparisonwithforexampleGasforClimate( Navigant )theamountCCSinthisscenariostillseemsreasonable.
8.6 Conclusion
Benchmarkingthedemand,renewablegenerationandelectrificationwiththemostimportantreferencestudiesillustratesthereasoningbehindthenTYNDP2020Sce-nariosintheirassumptionsandmethodologies.NationalTrendsisbasedonthenationalpoliciestowardsmeetingtheEU’sclimatetargetsfor2050.However,thebenchmarkconfirmsbothGlobalAmbitionandDistributedEnergyscenariostobeplausiblepathwaystowardsmeetingtheCOP21targetsconsideringcontrastedevolutionsoftheenergysystem.
Inaddition,itshouldbenotedthattheDistributedEnergyscenariocomesveryclosetoEC’s1.5°Cscenariosformostoftheirfeatures.
ENTSOs scenarios robust and fit for purpose
Thecontrastsindemandandproductiontechnologiesaswellasthecentralised/de-centralisedapproachtothedevelopmentofrenewabletechnologiesanditsimpactontheenergyimportsmakeENTSOGandENTSO-Escenariosthebestsupportforassessingtheinfrastructureneedsoftheenergysystemforthenextdecades.
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Figure47:CCSin2050inENTSOsandECscenarios
48 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report
Fuelpricesarekeyassumptionsforthepowermarketmodellingastheydeterminethemeritorderoftheelec-tricitygenerationunits,hencetheelectricitydispatchandresultingelectricityprices.
ENTSOGandENTSO-Ehaveusedseveralsourcestobenchmarkthedifferentpriceforecastsandprojectionsinordertoconcludeonthereferencesourcetobeusedforthescenarios( IEA,Primes,Bloomberg,IHS ).Thisas-sessmentshowsthatthepricesprovidedbythePRIMES,whichconsiderstheglobalcontextanddevelopmentthatinfluencescommodityprices,in-linewiththeECtargets,isrobustenoughtobeusedasareferenceforgas,oilandcoalpricesaswellfortheCO₂price.Pricesfornuclear,ligniteandbiofuelsarekeptthesameasconsideredforTYNDP2018.
ThefollowingtablesummarizesthesourceforeachfueltypeandCO₂.
StartingfromthePRIMESreferencepriceforNationalTrends2030,theCO₂pricewillbeincreasedinordertoachieveaspecificcarbonbudgetasdefinedforeachspe-cificstorylineandyear.
Thetablebelowsummarizesalltheresultingpricesperscenario.
Fuel Commodities and Carbon Prices
Figure48:Summaryoffuelpricereferences
TYNDP 2018
PRIMES
Endogenous to reach the carbon budgetPRIMES
Global Ambition and Distributed EnergyNational Trends
CO�
Table6:FuelpricesinTYNDP 2020scenarios
2020 2021 2023 2025 2030 2040
BE G2C NT DE GA NT DE GA
€/GJ
Nuclear 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47
Lignite 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Oilshale 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
HardCoal 3.0 3.12 3.4 3.79 4.3 6.91
NaturalGas 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.46 6.91 7.31
LightOil 12.9 14.1 16.4 18.8 20.5 22.2
HeavyOil 10.6 11.1 12.2 13.3 14.6 17.2
€/tCO2 CO2 price 19.7 20.4 21.7 23 56 27 53 35 75 100 80
9
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Externalstakeholdersrepresentingthegasandelectricityindustries,customersandenvironmentalNGOs,regulators,EUMembersStatesandtheEuropeanCommissionwerekeyinbuildinganambitious,yettechnicallysound,setofscenarios.
TheScenarioBuildingprocesswassetupbyENTSOGandENTSO-Eworkjointlywithstakeholdersthroughinterac-tiveworkshops,webinarsandweb-consultations.Dozensofstakeholdersprovidedinputtoformulate,withENTSOGandENTSO-E,thenewscenariosstorylines.
Why do we do external stakeholder interaction?
StakeholdersfortheTYNDP2020ScenarioBuildingprocessaredividedintotwogroups:internalandexternal–andthereforeabovequestionsrequiresadifferentiatedanswer:
Internal Stakeholders
SincethescenariosaredevelopedbyENTSO-EandENTSOG–therepresentativesofEuropeanelectricityandgastransmissionoperators–theparticipantsinthese
organisationsareregardedasinternalstakeholders.Rep-resentativesofENTSO-EandENTSOGformthesteeringcommitteefortheScenarioBuildingprocess.Theyreceiveupdatesonthedevelopmentoftheprocess,aredirectlyconsultedonmajorprocess-decisions( e. g.thedecisiontoengageClimateActionNetworkEuropeandtheRenewa-blesGridInitiativeinthecalculationofaParis-compliantcarbonbudget ),andultimatelyapprovethescenarioreportforpublish.
External Stakeholders
Toensurecompletetransparencyandtoencouragethewidestpossiblerangeofopinions,participationintheex-ternalstakeholderactivitiesisentirelyopen.Anyorganisa-tionorprivateindividualwhichwishesmaytakepartintheexternalstakeholdereventswhichaccompanythescenariobuildingprocess.Anyorganisationorprivateindividualmayalsoofferfeedbackinthetwoconsultationperiodsduringtheprocesswithoneexception:Inordertoensuretransparencywhentakingexternalstakeholderfeedbackintoaccount,feedbackfrommembersofENTSO-EandENTSOGisnotconsideredintheexternalconsultations.
Stakeholder feedback and how it shaped the scenarios10
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SincethescenariosalsoformthebasisfortheTenYearsNetworkDevelopmentPlansforelectricityandgas,andthereforealsohaveadirectinfluenceonthecost-benefitanalysisforProjectsofCommonInterest,theEuropeanCommissionandtheAgencyfortheCooperationofEnergyRegulators( ACER )areconsultedregularlyandbilaterallythroughouttheentirescenariobuildingprocess.
How does the external stakeholder inter action work?
Theexternalstakeholderinteractionwasdesignedtoaccompanytheentirescenariobuildingprocess.Theinteractioncanbegenerallygroupedintotwophases:consultationofthequalitativescenarioelementsinthefirstyearoftheprocess,andtheconsultationofthefinalscenarios–incorporatingbothqualitativeandquantitativescenarioelements–intheinthesecondyearofthepro-cess.Consultationswerepreceededbystakeholderwork-shops.Whilemanysimilarstudiesorscenariodevelopmentprocessesoftenholdworkshopsafterthecompletionofaconsultationphase,theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingfeltitwouldbemorebeneficialtoholdworkshopspriortoconsultation.Thisgavestakeholdersabetterunderstand-ingofthescenariosandtheopportunitytoaskquestionsbeforetakingpartintheconsultationprocess.
Thedevelopmentprocessiscoveredindetailbythematerialreleasedpriortothepublicationofthisreport,thehigh-levelprocessforthesestorylinesfollowedthestepsbelow:
1. Public workshop: “TYNDP 2020 Scenario Develop-ment Workshop”, 29 May 2018 (link)
2. Publication of first draft of five storylines describ-ing potential relevant futures for the electricity and gas system in Europe developed by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG, 2 July 2018 (link)
3. Public consultation of storylines: “2020 Scenario Storylines ”, 2 July to 14 September 2018 (link)
4. Public Webinar on “Scenario Development Process Update”, 21 November 2018 (presentation sent to participants via email)
5. Public Webinar on Final Storyline Release, 18 April 2019 (link)
6. Publication of Final Storylines, 29 May 2019 (link)
7. ENTSOG’s Public Workshop on the Supply Poten-tials and Market Related Assumptions for TYNPD 2020, 10 July 2019 (link)
8. TYNDP Cooperation Platform (with EC and ACER) and High-Level Meetings throughout the whole process with main focus on National Trends as the central policy scenario.
9. Public Workshop on “Draft Scenario Report 2020”, 5 December 2020 (link)
10. Public consultation on “Draft Scenario Report 2020”, 25 November 2019 to 22 January 2020 (link)
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10.1 Storyline Consultation
Theinitialstorylineswerepresentedforconsultationinthesummerof2018.Beforethebeginningoftheconsultation,astakeholderworkshopwasheldinBrusselson29May2018.Thegoalofthisworkshopwastointroducethefiveinitialqualitativestorylinesandthestorylinematrices.StakeholdersweregiventheopportunitytointeractwithmembersoftheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingdirectlyandtoofferopinionsandaskquestionsabouttheunder-lyingassumptionsforallfivestorylines.
AftertheworkshoptheStorylineReportwaspublishedforconsultation.Respondentswereaskedtoremarkontheconsistencyandcredibilityofthefivestorylinesandtorankthestorylinesaccordingtotheirpreferences.TheywerealsoaskedabouttheiropinionsonkeyissuesunderpinningthestorylinessuchasdisruptivetechnologieswhichmightplayamajorroleintheEUenergysystemby2050,theroleofcoalintheEnergyTransition,andthepotential( ornot )ofCCStosupportdecarbonisation.Theresultsofthefirststakeholderconsultationprovidedsomeimportantfeedbackforthequantificationofthescenarios.
Storyline Feedback and Storyline Selection
Feedback on Distributed Energy
TheDistributedEnergystorylinereceivedthemostpos-itivefeedbackofthefivestorylinespresentedandwasgenerallyseenasconsistentandcredible.Criticismofthisstorylineprincipallyrevolvedaroundpossiblelimitationsorweaknessesinthedecentralisedenergymodel.Forexample,thehighlevelofelectrificationattheexpenseofgas( includinglow-carbongases )wasnotedbyseveralstakeholdersaswereconcernswithmaintainingsecurityofsupplywithdecentralisedgeneration.Finally,severalstakeholdersfeltthattheroleofdistributiongridsinthestorylineneededtobeconsideredingreaterdetail.How-ever,thisstorylinewasclearlythemostpopularamongrespondents.
Feedback on European Focus
TheEuropeanFocusStorylinewasaplaceholderforanexternalScenario,asrequestedbytheEuropeanCommis-sionintheTYNDP2018Scenarios.ENTSOs,EuropeanCommissionandACERhavejointlydecidednottouseanexternalScenario,butinsteadtoalignNationalTrendswiththeNECPstotheutmostpossible.However,theEuropeanFocusStorylinereceivedlessdirectfeedbackthantheoth-
erstorylinesbutwasgenerallypositivelyreceived.SeveralrespondentsnotedthesimilarityofthisstorylinetotheNationalTrendsstorylineand,likewise,criticiseditforapparentlyfailingtoreachEUTargets.EuropeanFocuswasthesecond-mostpopularstorylineamongrespondents,narrowlyaheadofNationalTrendsandGlobalAmbition.
Feedback on National Trends
Theconsensusamongstrespondentswasthatthestorylinewasbothconsistentandcredible.Manyrespondentsspokeofthisstorylineasforminga„reference“scenarioincomparisontothemoreambitioustop-downscenarios.Nonetheless,thelackofambitioninthisscenarioalsodrewcriticismasmanystakeholders( correctly )recognisedthatsuchascenariowouldnotachievethenecessaryclimatechangegoalsby2050.SeveralstakeholdersalsonotedthatadjustmentstothecurrentETSmodelwouldbecrucialtoachievingclimatetargetsanddoubtedwhethertheadjustmentsassumedintheNationalTrendsstorylinewouldbesufficient.NationalTrendsrankedthirdamongrespondents,slightlybehindEuropeanFocusandslightlyaheadofGlobalAmbition.
Feedback on Global Ambition
ThemajorityofstakeholderswereunsatisfiedwiththeconsistencyandcredibilityoftheGlobalAmbitionsto-ryline.Manyenvironmentalandsocietalstakeholdersviewedthe95 %reductioninCO₂emissionsasunrealistic,especiallyasthiswouldbeachievedthroughtheglobalscale-upofseverallow-carbontechnologies( PtX,CCS )whichrespondentsconsideredimmaturetoday.Whiletheglobalfocusofthestorylinereceivedpraisefromsomere-spondents,othercriticisedthehigherlevelsof( renewable )energyimportsthatwouldentail.GlobalAmbitionrankedfourthamongrespondents,slightlybehindbothEuropeanFocusandNationalTrends.
Feedback on Delayed Transition
TheDelayedTransitionstorylinewasby-fartheleastpopularstorylineamongstakeholderswhofeltitlackedbothconsistencyand,inparticular,credibility.Thesto-rylinewascriticisedforitslackofambitionandnegativemessageitwouldsendifsuchascenariowereincludedinthefinalreport.Multiplerespondentsnotedthatthisscenariowouldentailthegreatestsocietalcostsduetotheincreasesinglobaltemperatureswhichwouldoccurifthisscenariooccurredworldwide.Thestorylinerankedlastoutofthefive.
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The Role of CCS
Asamaturebutcontroversialtechnology,withthepoten-tialtosupportdecarbonisation,stakeholderswereaskedfortheiropiniononwhatroleCCSshouldplayinthesce-narios.ManyoftherespondentsheldaskepticalviewofCCS,largelythiswasbasedonaperceivedimmaturityofthetechnologyandanexpectedlackofsocialacceptanceontheEuropeanmainland.Ontheotherhand,respond-entsalsosuggestedtoincludeCCSwithregardto“hardtodecarbonize”sections( suchasnon-energydemandorcement/fertilizerproduction )andnetnegativeemissionsasalsoexpressedbytheIPCC1.5SpecialReport.
The Role of Coal
StakeholderswereaskedaboutwhethercoalfiredpowergenerationwouldplayaroleintheEuropeanenergysys-temin2050and,ifnot,whichmeasuresshouldbeusedtoinduceacoalphase-out.Whilemanystakeholdersbelievedthatcoalshouldnotplayanyroleinthefuture,othersfeltthatitwouldcontinuetoplayatleastaminorroleinsomecountriesuntil2050.However,therewasageneralcon-sensusthatachievingEUclimatechangetargetsby2050wouldbeextremelydifficultifcoalcontinuedtoplayamajorroleintheenergymix.Thereweremajordiscrepan-ciesinthefeedbackregardingwhetherthecoalphase-outshouldbepolicy-oreconomically-driven.Themajorityofstakeholdersadvocatedforapolicydrivenapproach,howevermanyfeltbothpolicyandeconomywouldhavetoplayacentralroleinthisprocess.ImprovementoftheETSsystemandagreatlyincreasedcarbonpricewerethemainpolicyoptionssuggestedintheconsultation.
Disruptive Technologies
Aspartoftheconsultation,stakeholderswerealsoaskedtheiropiniononwhichpotentialdisruptivetechnologieswouldhaveamajorimpactonthefutureEuropeanenergysystem.Morethananyothertechnologies,stakeholdersmentionedenergystoragetechnologiesaspotentiallydisruptiveinthefuture.Power-to-Xtechnologieswerethesecond-mostcommonresponse,followedbyimprovedrenewablesgenerationtechnologies,smartgridtechnolo-giesandCCS/CCU.
How did the Storyline Consultation influence the Scenario Building Process?
OneofthecentraldecisionsmadeaftercompletionoftheStorylineConsultationwasthefinalstorylineselection.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildinghadpreviouslyagreedtomodelthreeofthefivestorylinespresented.ThisdecisionwasmadebasedontimeandresourceconstraintswithinthegroupandwithrespecttotheoverallTYNDPprojectsandtheadjacentProjectofCommonInterestselectionprocess.
TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingagreedthattwoofthescenariosshouldhaveahigherlevelofclimate-changeambitionandremainwithintheParis-compliantcarbonbudgetcalculatedbyCANEuropeandchosenbyENTSOGandENTSO-E.Tocounterbalancethesetwoscenarios,thethirdscenarioshouldbeabottom-upscenariobasedonofficialEUandmember-statedata.AsDistributedEnergyhadbeenthemostpopularstorylineamongrespondents,itwaschosenbytheWorkingGroupScenarioBuilding.TheteamalsofeltthatGlobalAmbitionofferedthegreatestcontrasttoDistributedEnergyfromaninfrastructure-perspectiveand that thecreationofacentralised,import-focusedscenariojuxtaposedespeciallywellthedecentralised,EU-focusednarrativeofDistributedEnergy.GlobalAmbitionalsohadahigherlevelofdecarbonisationambitionthanEuropeanFocus( althoughEuropeanFocushadbeenslightlymorepopularamongexternalstakehold-ers ).
AsEuropeanFocushadbeensopopularamongexternalstakeholders, theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingfeltitshouldalsobetakenintoaccountinthescenariodevelopment.BoththeWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingandexternalstakeholdershadnoticedthesimilaritybe-tweenNationalTrendsandEuropeanFocusandmostofthekeyparametersofthetwostorylineswerecombinedinthedevelopmentofNationalTrends.InordertoensurealignmentwiththeaimsoftheEuropeanFocusstorylineandasjointlydecidedwiththeEuropeanCommissionandACER,theNationalTrendsscenariowasalignedwithdatafromtheNationalEnergyandClimatePlans( NECP )oftheEUmemberstates.
AlthoughACERfavouredtheinclusionoftheDelayedTransitionstorylineinthefinalScenarioReport,boththeEuropeanCommissionandthemajorityofexternalstakeholderswereextremelycriticalofthis.Moreover,ENTSOGandENTSO-Etakeenergyinfrastructureread-inessfortherequiredenergytransitionforinevitableandthereforefocustheirTYNDPontheassessmentofprojectsincompliancewithnationalandEU-wideclimatetargets.Therefore,theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingdecideditwouldbeintransparenttoincludesuchawidelyunpopularstorylineinthefinalreport.
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10.2 Draft Scenario Report Consultation
18 LinktoPCI
ThesecondphaseofexternalstakeholderconsultationbeganafterthepresentationoftheDraftReporton 5December2019.Thegoalsofthesecondexternalstakeholderconsultationwerefarbroaderthanduringthefirstconsultation.Tothisend,theconsultationquestion-nairewasmoredetailedandentailedquestionswithtwodifferentbroadfoci:
- Presentationofdataandengagementwith externalstakeholders
- Consistencyandcredibilityofthescenarios, themethodsusedandtheirambition
TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingreceived42directresponsestotheconsultation( thisdoesnotincludebilat-eralornon-consultationfeedbackfrominstitutionssuchastheEuropeanCommissionandACER ).Morethanhalfofthesecamefromprojectpromoters,researchersandNGOs,showingthehighlevelofengagementtheseorganisationswereabletoachieveinthescenariobuildingprocess.
Presentation of data and engagement with stakeholders
Themajorityofstakeholdersweresatisfiedwiththepres-entationandlevelofexplanationprovidedbytheWorkingGroupScenarioBuilding.Inparticulartheuseofvisualisationtoolswaspraisedformakingthedatasetsmoreaccessible,althoughsomerespondentsstillfeltthatbetteraccesstotherawdatawasneededtofullycomprehendthescenarios.StakeholdersexpressedlesssatisfactionwiththelevelofengagementbytheWorkingGroupScenarioBuilding,how-everitshouldbenotedthatalmosthalfofallrespondentsfailedtoanswerthequestionsonthistopic.Theprincipalconcernsregardingthestakeholderengagementprocessrelatedtothetimingofthefinalconsultationperiodandthecommunicationofitsgoals.Somerespondentsfeltthesec-ondconsultationoccurredtoolateintheprocess.Indeed,severalstakeholdersmistakenlybelievedthattheresultsoftheTYNDP2020ScenarioReportwouldbeutilisedforthe4thProjectofCommonInterestList 18( releasedinOctober2019andconfirmedbytheEuropeanParliamentinFebru-ary2020 )andthereforecriticisedtheapparentlatenessofthestakeholderconsultationinthisrespect.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingalsonotedthatcommunicationoftheScenarioMethodologyReport( publishedinparalleltothemainreportandavailableatENTSOGandENTSO-ETYNDPScenarioReportmicrosite )wasapparentlylesssuc-cessfulthanforthemainDraftScenarioReportasmanyofthestakeholdersquestionsregardingthescenariobuilding
processhadbeenaddressedintheScenarioMethodologyReport.Itisclearthatinthe2022scenariobuildingprocess,greateremphasisshouldbeplacedonexplainingandpre-sentingtheScenarioMethodologyReporttostakeholders.
Consistency and credibility of the scenarios, the methods used, and their ambition
ThevastmajorityofrespondentsagreedthatthescenariosshoulduseEU2030and2050climatechangetargetsasaminimumstandard.TherewasalsogeneralagreementthattheNationalTrendsscenarioshouldbebasedondatafromtheNationalEnergyandClimatePlans( NECPs )oftheEU-28,although,astheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingalsonoted,thisapproachcancreatediscrepanciesbetweenna-tionalenergyandclimatepoliciesthatundermineEU-widedecarbonisationmeasures.
TheuseofacarbonbudgetfortheDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionscenarioswaswidelyregardedasapositivestep.However,manyrespondents,especiallythosefromenvironmentalNGOs,foundthescenarioswerestilltooconservativeandrequestedmoreextremescenarioswithgreaterlevelsofdecarbonisationorcompletelyexcludingcertainenergycarriersfromthemodels.Furthermore,sever-alrespondentsfeltthattheGlobalAmbitionandDistributedEnergyscenariosdidnotdiffersufficientlytoprovidetrulyalternativevisionsoftheEnergyTransitionin2050.
Severalrespondentsalsofeltthelevelsofbiomassandnatu-ralgasdemand,especiallyintheDistributedEnergyscenarioweretoohigh.TheyalsoarguedthattheuseofCCSand,toalesserextent,LULUCFtocompensateforthesefossilfuelsintheenergymixwasnotcredibleconsideringthehighdecarbonisationambitionsattachedtothesescenarios.
How did the Draft Scenario Report consultation influence the Final Scenario Report 2020?
AstheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingthemselvesnoted,itwillbenecessarytorestructurethetimelineforthe2022ScenarioReporttoensurethatthedelayswhichoccurredlateinthe2020processarenotrepeated.Certainrespondentssuggestedshorteningthestorylineselectionphaseearlyintheprocesstoallowmoretimeformodel-ling.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingwilltakethissuggestiononboardinthe2022process.Respondentsalsorequestedbetteraccesstodatasetsinordertogaina
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betterunderstandingoftheprocess.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingnotedthisconcernandwillendeavourtotransparencyofdatasetsinthe2022ScenarioReportandtoallowstakeholderstoviewthecoreassumptionsandparametersusedtobuildthescenarios.Toensurethatstakeholderscanretainthehighlevelofengagementintheearlystagesoftheprocess,theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingsuggestincludingkeyassumptionsandparametersinthefirstexternalconsultationphaseinadditiontothequalitativestorylineelements.
Inordertotakeintoaccountfeedbackreceivedonalackofdifferencebetweenthetop-downscenarios,theconsid-erableuseofbiomass,andaperceivedlackofambitionintheelectrificationandRESdevelopment,theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingmadethedecisiontoupdatetheScenarios.
– National Trends
ForNationalTrends,ENTSOGhasrunanadditionaldatacollectionwithitsmemberstocollectinformationfromthefinalNECPs.Moreover,latestpolicydecisionshavebeentakenintoaccount,suchasfortheGermancoal-phaseoutortheDutchgasproduction.UpdateofdatacompliantwiththefinalNECPsandGermanCoalphaseout.UpdatesonpoliciesarealsotakenintoaccountforDistributedEn-ergyandGlobalAmbition.
– Distributed Energy
Gas demand: ThegasdemandforDistributedEnergyin2050hasbeenre-computedfollowingalinearextrapola-tionofthedevelopmentbetween2025and2040–withanewtotalgasdemandof3,000 TWhforDistributedEnergy.
Bioenergy:DistributedEnergyhasbeenupdatedinthefinalreportfortheyears2040and2050.Thiswasdonebylimitingtheoveralluseofbiomassto2,424 TWhin2040and2,757 TWhin2050inlinewiththe2,442–2,907 TWhrangeofthe1.5LIFEand1.5TECHscenariosoftheEurope-anCommissionLongTermStrategy.Theenergyproduction
deficitwhichresultedfromthiswascompensatedbyanincreaseinelectrificationlevels.
Biomassusewasreducedby26 %intheresidentialandtertiarysectors,by80 %inthemobilitysectorandby30 %intheindustry.ThishasbeencompensatedbyanincreaseindirectelectrificationcombinedwithP2Lintransportaccordingtothefollowingtable:
Thisadditionalelectricitydemandtriggeredanincreaseofdispatchablegenerationandtheadditionaldevelopmentof740and1,415 GWofRESrespectivelyin2040and2050.
AdditionalRESfordirectelectrificationhavebeenmod-elledaspartoftheelectricitysystemwhilethededicatedRESforP2LhavebeenmodelledoutsidetheelectricitysystemaccordingtotheP2Gapproach.
– Global Ambition
ThegasdemandforGlobalAmbitionin2050hasbeenre-computedfollowingalinearextrapolationofthedevel-opmentbetween2025and2040–withanewtotalgasdemandof3,800 TWhforGlobalAmbition.
Electricity demand increase by sector (TWh) 2040 2050
Residential 53 42
Tertiary 16 16
Transport– Direct electrification–Power-to-Liquid
35648
50905
Industry 142 126
Table7:ElectricitydemandincreaseinDistributedEnergy
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SinceTYNDP 2018 ENTSOG and ENTSO-E havealignedtheirTYNDPtimelinesandprocessesleadingtothesameTYNDPpublicationtimeframes.Beforethattime,eachorganisationhaditsownindividualprocesswiththeENTSO-ETYNDP2016andENTSOGTYNDP2017respectively.ThejointdevelopmentoftheTYNDPScenariosintroducedattheTYNDP2018projectstartmustbehighlightedasoneofthemostsignificantprocessim-provementsteps,asENTSO-EandENTSOGpooledtheirScenarioBuildingeffortsandexpertiseintheframeoftheinterlinkedmodel.
Thefocusstudyontheinterlinkagebetweengasandelectricity 19,performedbyArtelysandpresentedtoCopenhagenInfrastructureForum2019,concludesthat
19 https://www.entsog.eu/methodologies-and-modelling#consistent-and-interlinked-electricity-and-gas-model
mostoftheinterlinkageiscapturedinthescenariosandthelevelofdirectinteractionmainlydependsontheassumptionsmadeonthedifferenttechnologiesforgastopowerandpowertogasconversion,aswellasonthehybridtechnologies.Thoseinteractionsdefiningtheinterlinkagebetweengasandelectricitythusdirectlyderivefromthestorylinesdefinedandselectedwiththestakeholders.
BothENTSOsconsistentlyworktomodernisetheirdata,toolsandmethodologiesbetweeneachreleaseofthescenarios.SomeofthekeyimprovementsfortheScenarios2020arepresentedbelow.ThemethodologiesusedbybothENTSOstoproducethescenariosarepresentedindetailintheAnnexofthisreport.
Improvements in 2020 Scenarios11
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11.1 More sustainability-oriented Scenarios ( carbon budget )
WiththeintroductionofacarbonbudgetasaninputtotheCOP21scenarios,ENTSOGandENTSO-EcanassesswhatthetargetssetbytheCOP21requirefromtheenergysystembeyond2025andhence,supportthepolicydecision-makingprocess.
Thedevelopmentofthecarbonbudgetandtheinputassumptionstothescenarioshaveinvolvedawiderangeofstakeholdersincludingenvironmentalorganisation,participatingtothecredibilityofthetwoverydifferent
pathwaystheenergysystemcouldtaketowardsreachingthe EuropeanUnionclimateambitions.Buildingonpreviousexercise,ENTSOGandENTSO-Ehavekeptthecentralisedanddecentralisedapproachof,respectively,GlobalAmbitionandDistributedEnergyscenarios.Evenifthesescenariosshouldnotbeconsideredmorelikelythanothers,theywillallowENTSOGandENTSO-Etoconsidertheelectricityandthegassystemunderthemostcontrastedsituations,thusdeliveringthemostcomprehen-siveassessment.
11.2 Total Energy Scenarios ( Top-down )
WhereasENTSOs’TYNDP2018Scenariosweremainlybasedonbottom-upcollecteddataforthegasandelec-tricitysectors,forthefirsttime,theyhavedevelopedtop-downScenarioscapturingthefullenergysystem( allsectors,allfuels ).Inthissense,thejointWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingdevelopedanin-houseenergymodeltoolcalledthe“AmbitionTool”.
Themainobjectiveswere:
1) tobettermapthesectoralcouplingandtheassociatedinterdependencebetweengasandelectricitysector
2) toimprovethemethodologiestocaptureallGHGemis-sionsandtheirdevelopmentwithinatimeperiodandthusensurethatthescenariosareincompliancewiththeParisAgreementtargets( carbonbudgetmethodasstatedbytheIPCCSpecialReport ).
Itisapolicydriventop-downenergymodel,asnocostelementsareconsideredandislinkedtotheEurostat2015dataasprojectionstartingpoint.WorkingGroupScenarioBuildingislookingattheEuropeanambitionlevelwithleverssectoraltechnologysplit,fueltypes,supplysourcesetc.andisworkingoutthefutureenergycarriercontent( focusingonthegasandelectricitysystem ).
11.3 Electricity Demand
TRAPUNTA( TemperatureRegressionandloAdProjectionwithUNcertaintyAnalysis )isthenextstepinelectricityloadforecastingafteraboutoneyearofdevelopment.Thistoolisasoftwarethatallowstoperformelectricloadpredictionstartingfromdataanalysisofthehistoricaltimeseries( electricload,temperature,otherclimaticvariables )andevaluationofthefutureevolutionofthemarket( e. g.,
penetrationofheatpump,electricvehicles,batteries,pop-ulationandindustrialgrowth ).IthasbeendevelopedbyMilanoMultiphysicsforENTSO-E.TRAPUNTAisbasedonaninnovativemethodologyfortheelectricloadprojectionanalysisbasedonregression,modelorderreductionanduncertaintypropagation.
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11.4 Gas Demand
Quality SplitTakingintoaccountrecenttechnologicandpoliticaltrends,ENTSOshavedecidedtoinvestigatethedemandformethaneandhydrogenseparately.Thetermgasthereforestandsforthesumofbothgastypes.
Daily gas peak demand computationAsforTYNDP2018Scenarios,thedailygaspeakdemandfiguresforgashavebeencollectedfromtheTSOsforthebottom-upscenarioNationalTrends.Forthetop-downsce-narios,astheannualdemandvaluesweredeterminedwiththeAmbitionTool,ENTSOshavedevelopedamethodologytocomputedailygaspeakdemandfiguresusingsectoralfullloadhoursandtemperature-demandregressioncurves.
Dunkelflaute climatic caseConsideringthelevelofdevelopmentofrenewablegenera-tioncapacitiesintheCOP21scenarios,especiallyin2040,ENTSOGandENTSO-EhavedevelopedforthefirsttimeaDunkelflauteclimaticcase( DF )toassessthepossibleimpactofadditionalgasdemandforpowergenerationwhenminimumvariablerenewablegenerationisavailablefortwoweeks.
11.5 Electricity Generation
Co-optimisationFollowingtheexchangewithinternalandexternalstake-holdersaco-optimisationofgenerationcapacityandgridwasperformed.Thisnewmethodincludesfollowingkeyimprovements:
- Endogenousandsimultaneousoptimisationofgenera-tioncapacityandinterconnectors
- UtilisationofscenariodependentCAPEXcosts,OPEXcostsandfuelpriceswithendogenousCO₂ leveladjustment
- EndogenousCO₂pricesettingasafunctionofcarbonbudgetasmaininvestmentlever
- Considerationofhouseholdsolarbatterystoragesys-tems,vehicletogridandindustrydemandsideresponse
- ImplementationofREStechnologyevolutionbytheusageoftimehorizon( 2025,2030and2040 )relatedRESinfeedtimeseries
Trajectories collectionTheScenarioBuildingprocessisdeveloping“top-down”scenariodatasetsthatarequantifiedusinganumberofoptimisationloopsaccordingtothestakeholderagreedstorylines.Inordertoimprovethescenarioquantificationbysettingplausibleboundaries,theWorkingGroupSce-narioBuildingestablishedaTrajectorydatacollectionforvariouscoresupplyanddemandelementsbasedonuptothreenationalscenarios( withlow,mediumandhighdevel-opmenttrajectories ).Themainaimofthiscomplementaryinformationistohelpbetterintegrateuncertaintiesonnationalpoliticaldecisionslikecoalphase-outs,nuclearfleetdevelopments,RESsupportschemesbutalsotoelaborateonupcomingtechnologieslikeelectricvehicles,batterystoragesorP2G.
Basedonthosedata,itispossibleto:
- Ensurecoherencywithnationalstudies
- Takeintoaccountnationalpoliciesandpoliticaldecisions/plans
- Setboundariesfortechnologydevelopments
- ComparetheoutcomesofENTSOGandENTSO-Escenarioswithnationalperspectives
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11.6 Gas Supply
InTYNDP2018,gassupplyassumptionsconsistofmainlybottom-updatafordomesticproductionofnaturalgas,biomethaneandP2Gwithoutaqualitysplitinmethaneandhydrogen.
Import shareAsdoneinexternalstudies( e. g.EC’s“CleanPlanetforall” )ENTSOs’developedgenericassumptionsontheimportshareforgassupply.ThisenablesENTSOGandENTSO-Etotestthegasinfrastructureunderdifferentconditions( highimportshares,lowimportshares ).ENTSOsareconvincedthatcentralisationandde-centralisationwillhaveamajorimpactonfutureinfrastructureneeds.
BiomethaneTofurtherimprovethedataqualityandcapturelatesttrends,ENTSOGincollaborationwiththeconsultancyNavigant( previouslyEcofys )hasdevelopeda“Biomethane
Productiontool”,whichisbasedontheassumptionsofthe“GasforClimate”study.Thetoolconsidersanaerobicdigestionandthermalgasificationastechnologiestoproducebiomethane.TocapturethepotentialofbothtechnologiesitdifferentiatesbetweenseveralfeedstocktypesandgrowingregionswithinEurope.
Hydrogen supplyForthefirsttime,ENTSOshaveidentifiedtheneedforhydrogensupplyconsideringthreemajortechnologies:P2G,SteamMethaneReformingplusCCU/SandMethanePyrolysis.Theyhavedevelopedmethodologiestoidentifytheindigenousproductionofhydrogenbyaforementionedtechnologiesand,followingtheirassumptionsontheim-portshare,theneedfordirecthydrogenimportsand/ornaturalgasimportstoconvertitintohydrogeninEurope,respectively.
11.7 P2G and P2L
Forthetop-downscenarios,thequantificationoftheproductionofsynthetichydrogen,methaneandliquidviaP2GandP2Lwasextendedtoatwo-stepapproachforthetop-downscenarios.Inafirststep,curtailedelectricityfromtheelectricitymarketmodelisconsideredassourceofrenewableelectricitytoproducerenewablegases( hy-drogen,methaneandliquids ).Inasecondstep,additionalrenewableelectricityproductionisassumedandmodelledtomeetthedemandforrenewablegases.Thisisdoneviaa
dedicatedmodel,whichquantifiestheneededRES,P2GandP2Lcapacitiesforthepurposeofsupplyingsyntheticgas.
NexteditionswillprovidetheopportunitytofurtherenhancethemodellingofP2Xbytakingintoaccountdifferentconfigurations( e. g.P2GsuppliedbydedicatedRES,attheinterfaceofelectricityandgassystemsoratconsumerfacility )andanalyzingtheirimpactonelectricityandgasinfrastructures.
11.8 Data Visualisation Platform
Anonlinedatavisualisationplatformwassetuptoengagewithinternalandexternalstakeholdersandimprovethetransparencywithregardtothescenariooutcome.Stake-
holdershavesimplifiedaswellasextendeddataaccesswithonlineanalysisfunctions.
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ENTSOGandENTSO-EarecurrentlyworkingonthefurtherdevelopmentoftheirInterlinkedModelandontheintegrationofthefocusstudyrecommendationsfortheidentificationofprojectsworthadualassessmentonbothgasandelectricitysystems.
ENTSOGcompleteditsprojectcollectionphaseinJuly2019.ForthefirsttimeENTSOGopeneditsTYNDPtoEnergyTransitionRelatedprojectsincludingbiomethane,P2Gandccs/uprojects.ENTSO-EiscollectingsubmissionsinOctober–November2019andwillrunasecondsub-missionwindowforfutureprojectsafterthereleaseofitsIdentificationofSystemNeeds2040studyinApril2020.
Overthecomingmonths,ENTSOGandENTSO-Ewillpursue their respectiveTYNDP2020developmentprocess,inaclosetimeline:
- TheelectricityandgasdraftTYNDPswillbepublishedinQ32020forpublicconsultation.
- FurthertoreceivingthepublicconsultationfeedbackaswellasACER’sopinion,ENTSOGandENTSO-EwillpublishthefinalTYNDPs,byend2020forgasandinspring2021forelectricity.
- BothTYNDPswillsupportthe5thPCIselectionprocess.
NationalTrendswillserveasbasisforENTSO-E’sIdentifi-cationofSystemNeedsstudy,whichassessespan-Euro-peannetworkneeds,theirimpactinregions,wheregridprojectsshouldbeconsidered,potentialneededpolicyadjustmentsandtechnicalchallenges.
Acost-benefitanalysis( CBA )ofelectricitytransmissionandstorageprojectswillbeperformedfortheNationalTrends( 2025and2030timehorizons ).Additionally,toillustratetherobustnessoftheproposedinfrastructureprojects,asubsetofCBAparameterswillbedeterminedforDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition( 2030timehorizon ).Projectswillalsobeassessedina‘CurrentTrends’scenario,anENTSO-Escenarionotincludedinthisreportwhichdescribesafuturewheretheenergytransitionisslowerthanplanned.
ThescenarioswillalsofeedintoprojectswithinENTSO-E’sMarketsandSystemOperationscommittee,suchaslook-ingatmarketdesignandsystemoperabilityin2030.
ENTSOGTYNDP2020willincludetheProject-SpecificCBAs( PS-CBAs )forthoseprojectshavingdeclaredtheirintentiontoapplyforthe5thPCIlist.FullPS-CBAswillbeperformedfortransmission,storageandLNGterminalgasprojects,andwillconsiderallscenariosandthewholetime-horizonoftheTYNDP( from2020to2040 ).EnergyTransitionRelated( ETR )projectswillbeassessedwithareducedandsustainability-orientedCBA,toassesshowtheycandeliverintermsofdecarbonisationoftheenergysystemandsupporttheEuropeanclimateambitions.
Next Steps12
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ACER:AgencyfortheCooperationofEnergyRegulators.
BECCS:Bio-EnergyCarbonCaptureandStorage.CCSappliedtoBio-Energy,thusresultinginanetnegativeemissionofcarbondioxide.
Biomethane:Gaseousrenewableenergysourcederivedfromagriculturalbiomass( dedicatedcrops,by-productsandagriculturalwasteandanimalwaste ),agro-industrial( wastefromthefoodprocessingchain )andtheOrganicFractionMunicipalSolidWaste( OFMSW ).
Bottom-Up:ThisapproachofthescenariobuildingprocesscollectssupplyanddemanddatafromGasandElectricityTSOs.
Blue Hydrogen:HydrogenobtainedfromnaturalgasorindustrialresidualgasesbysplittingthemintohydrogenandCO₂.TheCO₂isthencapturedandstored/used.
CAGR:Compoundannualgrowthrate.
CAPEX:Capitalexpenditure.
Carbon budget:Thisistheamountofcarbondioxidetheworldcanemitwhilestillhavingalikelychanceoflimitingaverageglobaltemperatureriseto1.5°Cabovepre-indus-triallevels,aninternationallyagreed-upontarget.
Carbon price:costappliedtocarbonpollutiontoencour-agepolluterstoreducetheamountofgreenhousegasestheyemitintotheatmosphere.
CBA:CostBenefitAnalysiscarriedouttodefinetowhatextentaprojectisworthwhilefromasocialperspective.
CCS:CarbonCaptureandStorage.Processofsequestrat-ingCO₂andstoringitinsuchawaythatitwon’tentertheatmosphere.
CCU:CarbonCaptureandUsage.ThecapturedCO₂,in-steadofbeingstoredingeologicalformations,isusedtocreateotherproducts,suchasplastic.
CHP:Combinedheatandpower.
COP21:2015UnitedNationsClimateChanceConference.
Curtailed Electricity:Curtailmentisareductionintheoutputofageneratorfromotherwiseavailableresources( e. g.windorsunlight ),typicallyonanunintentionalbasis.Curtailmentscanresultwhenoperatorsorutilitiescontrolwindandsolargeneratorstoreduceoutputtominimizecongestionoftransmissionorotherwisemanagethesys-temorachievetheoptimummixofresources.
Coal phase-out:Coalisthemostcarbonintensivefossilfuelandphasingitoutisakeysteptoachievetheemis-sionsreductionsneededtolimitglobalwarmingto1.5°C,asenshrinedintheParisAgreement.
DSR:DemandSideResponse.Consumershaveanactiveroleinsofteningpeaksinenergydemandbychangingtheirenergyconsumptionaccordingtotheenergypriceandavailability.
( Kalte ) Dunkelflaute:Germanfor„( cold )darkdoldrums”expressesaclimatecase,whereinadditiontoa2-weekcoldspell,variableRESelectricitygenerationislowduetothelackofwindandsunlight.
EC:EuropeanCommission.
EV:Electricvehicle.
GCV:Grosscalorificvalue.Theheatproducedbycom-bustionofafuelataconstantpressureof1atmosphere,includingtheheatprovidedthecondensationofallvaporsproducedbythecombustion.Withnetcalorificvalueontheotherhandtheheatprovidedbcondensationisnotincluded( seealsoNCV ).
GDP:Grossdomesticproduct.
GHG:Greenhousegas.
Hybrid Heat Pump:heatingsystemthatcombinesanelectricheatpumpwithagascondensingboilertoopti-mizeenergyefficiency.
IEA:WorldEnergyOutlook.
Indirect electricity demand:Indirectelectrificationmeansthatelectricityisnotusedasadirectreplacementforfossilfuels,butasaninputinindustrialprocesses.
Glossary
ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 61
LCOE:Levelisedcostsofelectricity.Itrepresentstheaver-agerevenueperunitofelectricitygeneratedthatwouldberequiredtorecoverthecostsofbuildingandoperatingageneratingplantduringanassumedfinanciallifeanddutycycle.
LNG:Liquefiednaturalgas.
LULUCF:LandUse,LandUseChangeandForestry.SinkofCO₂madepossiblebythefactthatatmosphericCO₂canaccumulateascarboninvegetationandsoilsinterrestrialecosystems.
NCV:Netcalorificvalue.Theheatproducedbycombustionofafuelataconstantpressureof1atmosphere,undertheconditionthatallwaterintheproductsremainsintheformofvapor.Withgrosscalorificvalueontheotherhand,theheatproducedbycondensationofallvaporsisalsoincluded( seealsoGCV ).
NECPs:NationalEnergyandClimatePlansarethenewframeworkwithinwhichEUMemberStateshavetoplan,inanintegratedmanner,theirclimateandenergyob-jectives,targets,policiesandmeasurestotheEuropeanCommission.CountrieswillhavetodevelopNECPsonaten-yearrollingbasis,withanupdatehalfwaythroughtheimplementationperiod.TheNECPscoveringthefirstperiodfrom2021to2030willhavetoensurethattheUnion’s2030targetsforgreenhousegasemissionreduc-tions,renewableenergy,energyefficiencyandelectricityinterconnectionaremet.
NGO:Non-governmentalOrganization.
OPEX:Operationalexpenditure.
P2G:Powertogas.Technologythatuseselectricitytoproducehydrogen( PowertoHydrogen–P2H₂ )bysplit-tingwaterintooxygenandhydrogen( electrolysis ).ThehydrogenproducedcanthenbecombinedwithCO₂toobtainsyntheticmethane( PowertoMethane–P2CH4 ).
P2L:Powertoliquids.Combinationofhydrogenfromelec-trolysisandFischer-Tropschprocesstoobtainsyntheticliquidfuels.
PCI:ProjectofCommonInterest.
Power-to-Hydrogen/P2Hydrogen:HydrogenobtainedfromP2H₂.
Power-to-Methane/P2Methane:Renewablemethane,couldbebiomethaneorsyntheticmethaneproducedbyrenewableenergysourcesonly.
PRIMES:ThePRIMESenergymodelsimulatestheEuro-peanenergysystemandmarketsonacountry-by-countrybasisandacrossEuropefortheentireenergysystem.Themodelprovidesprojectionsofdetailedenergybalances,bothfordemandandsupply,CO₂emissions,investmentindemandandsupply,energytechnologypenetration,pricesandcosts.
RES:Renewableenergysource.
Shale gas:Shalegasisnaturalgasthatisfoundtrappedwithinshaleformations( e. g.viafracking ).
Synthetic methane:fuelgasthatcanbeproducedfromfossilfuelssuchaslignitecoal,oilshale,orfrombiofuels( whenitisnamedbio-SNG )orfromrenewableelectricalenergy.
Top-Down:The“Top-DownCarbonBudget”scenariobuildingprocessisanapproachthatusesthe“bottom-up”modelinformationgatheredfromtheGasandElectricityTSOs.ThemethodologiesaredevelopedinlinewiththeCarbonBudgetapproach.
TRAPUNTA:TemperatureREgressionandloAdProjectionwithUNcertaintyAnalysis.Softwarethatallowstoperformelectricloadpredictionstartingfromdataanalysisofthehistoricaltimeseries( electricload,temperature,otherclimaticvariables )andevaluationofthefutureevolutionofthemarket( e. g.,penetrationofheatpump,electricvehicles,batteries,populationandindustrialgrowth ).IthasbeendevelopedbyMilanoMultiphysicsforENTSO-E.
TSO:TransmissionSystemOperator.
TYNDP:TenYearNetworkDevelopmentPlan.
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List of Figures & Tables
Figures
Figure 1: NationalTrendsscenariointeractions withNECPs .....................................................................9
Figure 2: GHGemissioninENTSOS’scenarios .....................10
Figure 3: EU28CumulativeEmissionsinCOP21 ScenariosinMTCO₂ ................................................ 11
Figure 4: KeydriversofScenarioStorylines.......................... 14
Figure 5: TheTYNDP2020Scenariosaredefinedby threeStorylines ........................................................... 16
Figure 6: FinalenergydemandinCOP21scenarios ............18
Figure 7: Directelectricitydemandperscenario(EU28) ....19
Figure 8: Exampleofwinterhourlydemandprofile forasinglemarketnode ............................................20
Figure 9: Exampleofsummerhourlydemandprofile forasinglemarketnode ............................................20
Figure 10: Peakelectricitydemandperscenario(EU28) ....... 21
Figure 11: Numberofelectricandhybridvehiclesand heatpumps(excl.districtheating)comparedtoarangebasedonanalysisofthirdpartyreports ..... 22
Figure 12: Sectoralbreakdownoftotalgasdemand inEU28 .......................................................................... 23
Figure 13: Gasdemandinhighdemandcases (Peak,2-Weekcoldspell,Dunkelflaute) ............... 23
Figure 14: Totalmethaneandhydrogendemandin COP21scenarios ....................................................... 24
Figure 15: PrimaryenergymixandRESsharein DistributedEnergy(EU28) ........................................25
Figure 16: PrimaryenergymixandRESsharein GlobalAmbition(EU28) .............................................25
Figure 17: Shareoffinalelectricitydemand coveredbyRES ............................................................ 26
Figure 18: ElectricitygenerationmixinDistributedEnergy(EU28) ............................................................................27
Figure 19: ElectricitycapacitymixinDistributedEnergy (EU28) ............................................................................27
Figure 20: Peakgeneration,demandsideresponseand batterytechnology(EU28) ........................................28
Figure 21–23:NationalTrends,DistributedEnergy, GlobalAmbition...........................................................29
Figure 24: Gassourcecomposition–NationalTrends ........... 31
Figure 25: Gassourcecomposition–DistributedEnergy ..... 31
Figure 26: Gassourcecomposition–GlobalAmbition.......... 31
Figure 27: Capacityforhydrogenproduction .......................... 33
Figure 28: Generationmixforhydrogenand derivedfuels ................................................................. 33
Figure 29: GHGemissionreductionpathwaysuntil2050 .... 34
Figure 30: CO₂emissionsintheElectricityGeneration .........35
Figure 31: Decarbonisationpathofgas inDistributedEnergy ................................................. 36
Figure 32: Decarbonisationpathofgas inGlobalAmbition ...................................................... 36
Figure 33: Marginalcosts ..............................................................37
Figure 34: SolarPVCapacityFactor ..........................................38
Figure 35: RESLCOEinGlobalAmbition2040 .......................39
Figure 36: RESLCOEinDistributedEnergy2040 ..................39
Figure 37: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectricitydemand andwind/solargenerationforEU28 ...................... 41
Figure 38: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationrate forEU28 ........................................................................ 41
Figure 39: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationin theindustrialsectorforEU28 .................................. 42
Figure 40: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationof residentialandcommercialsectorsinEU28 ......... 42
Figure 41: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationin thetransportsectorforEU28 .................................. 42
Figure 42: Totalprimarygasdemand–Benchmarkwith ECLongTermStrategy ............................................... 43
Figure 43: Primarygasdemandforfinaluseandfor powergeneration ........................................................ 44
Figure 44: Renewablegasproduction– ENTSOsvsECLTS(P2X,1.5TECH,1.5LIFE) ........45
Figure 45: Energyimportsin2050byenergycarrier ............. 46
Figure 46: Gasimportsperscenarioandperyear................... 46
Figure 47: CCSin2050inENTSOsandECscenarios ...........47
Figure 48: Summaryoffuelpricereferences ...........................48
Tables
Table 1: CumulativeemissionsandrequirednetnegativeemissionsinDistributedEnergy .............................. 12
Table 2: StorylineCentralMatrix ............................................15
Table 3: AnnualEU-28electricitydemandvolumesand theassociatedgrowthrate .......................................19
Table 4: AnnualpeakdemandandCARGperscenario ..... 21
Table 5: WindandSolarCapacityFactorCharacteristics ..38
Table 6: FuelpricesinTYNDP 2020scenarios ....................48
Table 7: Electricitydemandincreasein DistributedEnergy ......................................................54
Joint-Publishers
ENTSOG
EuropeanNetworkof TransmissionSystemOperators forGas
AvenuedeCortenbergh100 1000Brussels,Belgium
www.entsog.eu
ENTSO-E
EuropeanNetworkof TransmissionSystemOperators forElectricity
AvenuedeCortenbergh100 1000Brussels,Belgium
www.entsoe.eu
Co-authors
OlivierLebois PieterBoersmaDavidMcGowanThomasRzepczykCihanSönmezDantePowellMariaFernandez
MagdalenaBoguckaLouisWatineMartinGraversgaardNielsenWGSB SCNWG RGGroups
Design DreiDreizehnGmbH,Berlin|www.313.de
Pictures
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Publishing date
June2020
i Imprint
European Network ofTransmission System Operators
for Electricity