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Trend Macrolytics, LLC

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer

Thomas Demas, Managing Director

Michael Warren, Energy Strategist

Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Monday, November 1, 2021

The global scorecard Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

Russia + 39,931 Russia + 1,131

United Kingdom + 37,732 Romania + 427

Turkey + 23,948 Ukraine + 363

United States + 19,335 United States + 288

Ukraine + 18,492 India + 251

India + 12,514 Turkey + 201

Thailand + 8,859 Iran + 177

Iran + 8,427 Brazil + 130

Netherlands + 8,196 Philippines + 128

Romania + 7,424 Mexico + 89

+ 184,858 + 3,185

World + 307,706 World + 4,531

Top ten 60% Top ten 70%

World

30.6 median population age

New cases New Deaths

The worst ten countries

324.866 bp of population infected

As of Oct 31

New confirmed cases

by continent

6.58 bp of population fatalities

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 don@trendmacro.com Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 tdemas@trendmacro.com

2

The US scorecard Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital Hospital use ICU use

FL OH CA CA TX RI 87% NM 93%

TX KY TX TX FL MD 86% RI 92%

PA GA FL FL CA MA 85% ID 91%

NY MI NY NY NY PA 83% GA 87%

MD CO IL PA GA MN 82% KY 86%

HI MN GA GA OH MI 82% TX 86%

CA IN PA IL PA NY 81% NH 85%

AR AZ OH NJ KY GA 81% AL 85%

MO MO NC OH IL CT 81% NV 84%

PR IL TN MI MI MO 81% CO 84%

70% 67%

75% 78%

Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most pop immunuity growth

United States

AR -11

Five most improved US states

TX -2,646 AZ

OH

+10 bp

+10 bp

+10 bp

+10 bp

+10 bp-1,005

-1,613

PA

38.1 median population age

1411.351 bp of population infected

22.893 bp of population fatalities

100.0% Delta variant share

57.2% total population immunized

1,280,265 23,662

24,601,421 423,971

3,346,581

56%

45,970,403 745,669

53% 57%

+ 287

Top ten

NE

IA NM -42AL

-61

Top ten

+ 19,335

-2,396

89%

The ten worst US states

+ 422

+592

71%

374,586

318,308

309,945

163,620

159,499

123,227

116,513

111,161

104,633

91,261

1,872,753

1,545,327

+ 24

+ 23

+ 13

+ 54

+ 2,840

+ 1,736

All states

71,193

+ 4

-56 CA

All states

Median

NJ -11 DE -18

AL

Some states not reporting

CA

DC

ID

IL

ID -21

OR -31-21

-41

NE

NY

PA

AZ

OH

FL

4,915,796 71,950

3,690,430 59,507

1,634,093 29,065

1,564,451 28,204

2,559,583 56,439

1,695,524 31,452

27,972

1,477,514 24,527

4,238,438

+ 2

+ 29NJ

CA

MO

WV + 661

+ 636

All states

+ 17,188

MD

+ 82

+ 60

+ 50

+ 50

+ 1,215

+ 1,064

+ 737

+ 10

+ 9

+ 6

+ 49

+ 2,416

+ 39

+ 26

+ 2,928

+ 124 + 2,955

+ 28

+ 27

+ 288

100%

-1,136

Dail

y n

ew

cases a

nd d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, Dept. of Health and Human Services, CDC, TrendMacro calculations

3

Rolling out the vaccines in the US and the world

Administered

% Pop % pop

68% 59%

60% 50%

Age 18 to 64 77% 67%

Age 65 and over 100% 88%

AK

59.4% WI ME

52.6% 62.7% 76.7%

58.3% 70.6%

WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY VT NH

69.4% 49.1% 56.9% 53.3% 65.2% 65.6% 58.3% 74.4% 79.7% 76.2%

63.5% 43.9% 50.5% 45.9% 59.9% 60.4% 53.5% 66.7% 71.2% 62.8%

OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ MA

68.4% 63.4% 50.8% 62.1% 59.6% 53.8% 55.9% 78.0% 75.1% 80.3%

62.9% 53.0% 43.9% 52.6% 55.5% 49.9% 51.9% 60.6% 66.4% 69.7%

CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD CT RI

74.6% 61.1% 67.7% 61.0% 56.9% 57.5% 49.0% 71.1% 73.0% 79.0% 78.2%

61.3% 53.6% 61.6% 56.2% 49.8% 50.7% 41.0% 63.1% 66.2% 70.7% 70.9%

AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC DE

61.3% 72.2% 62.6% 58.0% 54.5% 64.4% 57.6% 74.7% 68.9%

53.1% 62.1% 53.2% 48.0% 47.7% 52.7% 50.0% 62.5% 59.7%

OK LA MS AL GA

59.5% 53.9% 52.0% 54.5% 56.9%HI 50.1% 47.7% 45.7% 44.8% 48.2%

78.8% TX FL PR

59.8% 61.4% 69.1% 82.2%

53.4% 59.7% 73.6%

The demographics of US vaccination

Cumulative

18,923,803

Today

+1.445 million

As of Oct 31

State

Full immunity

Doses 433,880,591

ImmuneOne dose New immune today

+0.211 million

14,178,201

At least partial immunity

as % population

as % population

48,294,598 +0.040 million

197,461,721

11,891,047

+0.899 million

Age 12 to 17

Boosters

227,191,782 Total population

54,948,463

156,953,824 136,355,373

+0.018 million

+0.153 million

Source: CDC, CDC, Our World in Data, TrendMacro calculations

4

US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources

Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Act Now, TrendMacro calculations

5

US deep-dive on the demographics of age, race and health Updates weekly on Sundays

Age distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates Cumulative

Racial distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates

(Does not foot

with national average

due to sample error)

ComorbiditiesTop-ten joint causes of Covid mortalities, cumulative For over 5% of these

deaths, COVID-19 was the

only cause mentioned on

the death certificate. For

deaths with conditions or

causes in addition to

COVID-19, on average,

there were 4.0 additional

conditions or causes per

death.

Source: Distributions CDC, Comorbidities CDC, TrendMacro calculations

6

Recommended reading

Florida’s path from worst-to-first in COVID metrics

raises questions about pandemic restrictions John Haughey

Just the News October 29, 2021

Media Ignore Florida Covid Recovery Dave Seminara

Wall Street Journal

October 31, 2021

White House's Psaki tests positive for COVID-19 Brett Samuels

The Hill October 31, 2021

Meme of the day

Source: Our beloved clients, Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures" and CTUP

7

The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves

Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

8

The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves

Share of deceased population from day of first fatality, log scale

Source: Johns Hopkins,TrendMacro calculations

9

“Exponential”? Our most reliable evidence of the rate of spread of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

10

Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases

14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

11

Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Act Now, TrendMacro calculations

12

From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

New York

US ex-New York

Texas

53.4% total population immunized

97.7% Delta variant share

1461.74 bp of population infected

33.9 median population age

As of Oct 31

38.1 median population age

1315.74 bp of population infected

38.2 median population age

1417.42 bp of population infected

29.01 bp of population fatalities

22.50 bp of population fatalities

24.55 bp of population fatalities

98.9% Delta variant share

50.5% total population immunized

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

13

The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas) Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

California

Florida

Arizona

As of Oct 31

1605.91 bp of population infected

38.0 median population age

42.2 median population age

1244.12 bp of population infected

36.7 median population age

1718.26 bp of population infected

18.21 bp of population fatalities

27.71 bp of population fatalities

29.06 bp of population fatalities

98.1% Delta variant share

97.3% Delta variant share

61.3% total population immunized

38.9% total population immunized

53.1% total population immunized

98.5% Delta variant share

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

14

Patient zero… and then everyone else Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

China

World ex-China

As of Oct 31

28.8 median population age

397.82 bp of population infected

8.06 bp of population mortalities

0.79 bp of population infected

0.03 bp of population mortalities

37.4 median population age

100.0% Delta variant share

74.1% total population immunized

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

15

Impact in the largest economies Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

Japan

Germany

France

17.70 bp of population fatalities

1084.65 bp of population infected

41.2 median population age

67.9% total population immunized

As of Oct 31

97.1% Delta variant share

100.0% Delta variant share

99.6% Delta variant share

11.53 bp of population fatalities

1.48 bp of population fatalities

139.43 bp of population infected

555.05 bp of population infected

45.9 median population age

47.3 median population age

71.5% total population immunized

66.1% total population immunized

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

16

Impact in The Anglosphere Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

United Kingdom

Canada

Australia

As of Oct 31

40.5 median population age

454.54 bp of population infected

40.8 median population age

21.16 bp of population fatalities

7.66 bp of population fatalities

100.0% Delta variant share

67.0% total population immunized

1365.47 bp of population infected

99.8% Delta variant share

74.2% total population immunized

63.9% total population immunized

100.0% Delta variant share

62.18 bp of population infected

37.9 median population age

0.63 bp of population fatalities

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

17

Impact in continental Europe Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

Italy

Spain

Switzerland

71.4% total population immunized

79.8% total population immunized

63.2% total population immunized

As of Oct 31

18.61 bp of population fatalities

21.89 bp of population fatalities

790.59 bp of population infected

1067.63 bp of population infected

45.5 median population age

44.9 median population age

100.0% Delta variant share

99.7% Delta variant share

13.15 bp of population fatalities

1021.19 bp of population infected

42.2 median population age

100.0% Delta variant share

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

18

Impact in other hot-spots Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

South Korea

Singapore

Sweden

100.0% Delta variant share

100.0% Delta variant share

As of Oct 31

41.8 median population age

70.67 bp of population infected

347.80 bp of population infected

34.6 median population age

0.55 bp of population fatalities

0.09 bp of population fatalities

9.3% total population immunized

79.8% total population immunized

40.9 median population age

1157.39 bp of population infected

14.84 bp of population fatalities

67.9% total population immunized

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

19

Impact in the BRICs ex-China Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

India

Russia

Brazil

100.0% Delta variant share

97.5% Delta variant share

33.5 median population age

1041.09 bp of population infected

29.01 bp of population fatalities

32.5% total population immunized

55.3% total population immunized

As of Oct 31

39.6 median population age

26.8 median population age

255.75 bp of population infected

57.98 bp of population infected

3.42 bp of population fatalities

1.62 bp of population fatalities

98.8% Delta variant share

23.4% total population immunized

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

20

Impact in the Middle East and Africa Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

Israel

Iran

Africa (52 nations)

As of Oct 31

30.3 median population age

30.2 median population age

1494.21 bp of population infected

676.85 bp of population infected

9.12 bp of population fatalities

14.43 bp of population fatalities

100.0% Delta variant share

65.2% total population immunized

38.9% total population immunized

67.82 bp of population infected

19.7 median population age

1.74 bp of population fatalities

5.8% total population immunized

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

21

Impact in Africa, continued Cases: 7-day average and daily Deaths: Daily

South Africa As of Oct 31

27.6 median population age

1494.21 bp of population infected

9.12 bp of population fatalities

93.7% Delta variant share

20.5% total population immunized

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations