trend macrolytics, llc...2020/10/03 · trend macrolytics, llc donald luskin, chief investment...
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Copyright 2020 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not
authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying
or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no
warranty is made as to accuracy.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC
Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
Thomas Demas, Managing Director
Michael Warren, Energy Strategist
Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Saturday, October 3, 2020
The global scorecard
India + 79,476 India + 1,069
US + 49,534 US + 908
Brazil + 33,431 Brazil + 708
Argentina + 14,687 Mexico + 414
France + 12,148 Argentina + 311
Spain + 11,325 Colombia + 201
Russia + 9,412 Iran + 187
Ukraine + 8,702 Russia + 186
UK + 6,968 France + 136
Colombia + 6,192 Indonesia + 116
+ 231,875 + 4,236
World + 314,434 World + 5,523
Top ten 74% Top ten 77%
World
30.6 median population age
New cases New Deaths
The worst ten countries
45.666 bp of population infected
As of Oct 3
New confirmed cases
by continent
1.345 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 [email protected] Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 [email protected]
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The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources
New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital
FL FL CA NY NY
CA AL TX NJ FL
OH GA FL CA GA
TX WI NY TX NJ
IL OH GA FL AZ
GA IN IL MA VA
NC KS AZ IL AL
LA OK NC PA OH
VA SC NJ MI MD
KS TN TN GA IN
All states All states All states All states All states
Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten
Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries
United States
6.380 bp of population fatalities
+ 3,629
WI + 1,861
TN + 1,335
OK + 1,270
OH + 1,085
VA -69
AZ -93
+ 170
+ 163
+ 123
+ 97
+ 1,775
+ 1,598
+ 1,495
+ 43
+ 29
+ 26
+ 82
+ 2,660
+ 88
+ 72
+ 52
+ 111
+ 98
-33
-322 FL
+ 22
+ 20
+ 561
+ 3,590
+ 3,503
+ 2,825
+ 2,456
CA
TX
WI
FL
IL
IN
All states
+ 22,851
+ 49,534
NC
NY
OH
MO + 1,485
+ 1,464
MO -314 NC -18
Five most improved US states
NC -502 TX -40 CT -139
SD -361 TN
WI -175 WI -16 AR -48
TX
817,277 25,497
711,804 15,986
300,385 9,490
219,763 8,992
461,629 15,895
320,634 14,730
Top ten
MS -131
TN -20
411,751
70%
The ten worst US states
+ 933
+ 1,342
70%
89,995
44,991
28,791
23,511
22,240
18,642
17,420
15,688
15,574
12,983
289,835
214,684 8,179
206,629 7,110
756,004 16,131
+ 72
+ 66
+ 59
+ 56
+ 45 198,403 7,106
4,207,212 129,116
38.1 median population age
225.111 bp of population infected
58% 64%
7,294,029 200,611
46%
+ 835
67%
Da
ily n
ew
ca
se
s a
nd
de
ath
s
Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Recommended reading
74 and Overweight, Trump Faces Extra Risks From ‘a
Very Sneaky Virus’ Sheryl Gay Stolberg
New York Times October 2, 2020
How to vote with absolute safety? James Lileks
Minneapolis Star Tribune
October 2, 2020
Health expert explains how blood type plays a role in
COVID-19 infection Abigail Ogle
KCRA3 September 29, 2020
Vilified Early Over Lax Virus Strategy, Sweden Seems
to Have Scourge Controlled Thomas Erdbrink
New York Times September 29, 2020
A Quarter of Women Are Considering Scaling Back
Careers Jeff Green
Bloomberg September 30, 2020
SARS-CoV-2-derived peptides define heterologous
and COVID-19-induced T cell recognition Annika Nelde et al.
Nature Immunology September 30, 2020
The Coronavirus College Scam Stephen Moore
Wall Street Journal October 1, 2020
What’s the Ballot Deadline? Who Knows Wall Street Journal October 1, 2020
Meme of day
g
Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures"
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The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves
Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves
Share of deceased population from day of first fatality
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases
14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
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Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
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Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions
Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations
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From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande
New York
US ex-New York
Texas260.73 bp of population infected
33.9 median population age
As of Oct 3
38.1 median population age
237.30 bp of population infected
38.2 median population age
224.34 bp of population infected
13.10 bp of population fatalities
5.95 bp of population fatalities
5.46 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)
California
Florida
Arizona
As of Oct 3
301.93 bp of population infected
38.0 median population age
42.2 median population age
206.84 bp of population infected
36.7 median population age
331.41 bp of population infected
4.02 bp of population fatalities
6.81 bp of population fatalities
7.80 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Patient zero… and then everyone else
China
World ex-China
As of Oct 3
28.8 median population age
0.65 bp of population infected
37.4 median population age
55.80 bp of population infected
1.64 bp of population mortalities
0.02 bp of population mortalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Impact in the largest economies
Japan
Germany
France
As of Oct 3
41.2 median population age
87.99 bp of population infected
45.9 median population age
47.3 median population age
6.86 bp of population infected
35.77 bp of population infected
Da
ily n
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ths
Da
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ew
ca
ses
an
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Da
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Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Impact in The Anglosphere
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia9.80 bp of population infected
37.9 median population age
As of Oct 3
70.09 bp of population infected
40.5 median population age
42.92 bp of population infected
40.8 median population age
6.33 bp of population fatalities
2.46 bp of population fatalities
0.32 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Impact in continental Europe
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
As of Oct 3
42.2 median population age
63.51 bp of population infected
44.9 median population age
45.5 median population age
53.00 bp of population infected
168.30 bp of population infected
Da
ily n
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ca
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ths
Da
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ew
ca
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an
d d
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ths
Da
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ea
ths
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Impact in other hot-spots
South Korea
Singapore
Sweden
40.9 median population age
93.15 bp of population infected
5.82 bp of population fatalities
As of Oct 3
41.8 median population age
4.63 bp of population infected
101.33 bp of population infected
34.6 median population age
0.08 bp of population fatalities
0.01 bp of population fatalities
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
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d d
ea
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Da
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Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Impact in the BRICs ex-China
India
Russia
Brazil
33.5 median population age
232.96 bp of population infected
6.91 bp of population fatalities
As of Oct 3
39.6 median population age
26.8 median population age
48.29 bp of population infected
8.27 bp of population infected
0.73 bp of population fatalities
0.14 bp of population fatalities
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
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ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
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Da
ily n
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Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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Impact in the Middle East and Africa
Israel
Iran
Africa (52 nations)10.86 bp of population infected
19.7 median population age
0.26 bp of population fatalities
As of Oct 3
30.3 median population age
30.2 median population age
291.43 bp of population infected
53.08 bp of population infected
1.83 bp of population fatalities
3.01 bp of population fatalities
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
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ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
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Da
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ew
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Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations