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warranty is made as to accuracy.

Trend Macrolytics, LLC

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer

Thomas Demas, Managing Director

Michael Warren, Energy Strategist

Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Wednesday, August 12, 2020

The global scorecard

India + 60,963 Brazil + 1,274

Brazil + 52,160 US + 1,076

US + 46,813 Mexico + 926

Colombia + 12,830 India + 834

Argentina + 7,369 Colombia + 321

Mexico + 6,686 Peru + 225

Peru + 6,547 Iran + 184

Russia + 4,945 Argentina + 151

Iraq + 3,396 South_Africa + 130

Bangladesh + 2,996 Russia + 70

+ 204,705 + 5,191

World + 255,679 World + 6,103

Top ten 80% Top ten 85%

World

30.6 median population age

New cases New Deaths

The worst ten countries

26.770 bp of population infected

As of Aug 12

New confirmed cases

by continent

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 don@trendmacro.com Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 tdemas@trendmacro.com

2

The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources

New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital

FL FL CA NY NY

TX GA FL NJ FL

GA SC TX CA NJ

CA IN NY MA GA

AL VA GA TX AZ

SC OK IL FL VA

AZ OH AZ IL MD

TN TN NJ PA MA

OH AR NC MI AL

PA WI LA CT OH

All states All states All states All states All states

Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten

Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries

United States

NC + 11,876

TX + 8,479

MS + 7,445

SC + 3,039

IN + 2,281

MN -295 ND -2 KS -36

AR -262 MO -1 OR -25

-5 WA -57

AL -855 CT -3 MD -51

+ 573

+ 355

+ 329

+ 245

+ 1,214

+ 1,164

+ 1,095

+ 49

+ 45

+ 38

+ 233

+ 3,563

+ 122

+ 109

+ 50

+ 277

+ 220

+ 35

+ 35

+ 980

+ 12,500

+ 9,803

+ 5,831

+ 1,549

CA

TX

FL

GA

IL

Top ten

TN

All states

+ 38,771

+ 55,594

AZ

LA

OH

NC + 1,051

+ 1,001

38.1 median population age

157.842 bp of population infected

61% 66%

5,116,474 156,273

70%

+ 1,326

74%

Five most improved US states

MO -1,594 KS -7 AL -533

KS -1,092 UT

574,411 25,211

337,062

74%

The ten worst US states

+ 2,252

+ 2,715

83%

89,995

31,750

22,052

21,031

19,292

14,445

13,266

12,089

12,070

11,760

247,750

185,475 7,352

137,895 6,533

+ 135

+ 131

+ 125

+ 65

+ 61

542,792 15,890

500,620 10,468

198,248 8,685

188,737 7,866

422,003 8,751

222,588 8,710

133,125 4,444

3,105,894 103,910

Dail

y n

ew

cases a

nd d

eath

s

Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

3

Recommended reading

A Report to Our Readers Almar Latour

Wall Street Journal August 11, 2020

Cruise Ship Owners Left Thousands of Workers Adrift

for Months Rebecca Smith, Jacquie McNish and Suryatapa

Bhattacharya

Wall Street Journal August 11, 2020

Retail Chains Abandon Manhattan: ‘It’s

Unsustainable’ Matthew Haag and Patrick McGeehan

New York Times August 11, 2020

Role of children in household transmission of COVID-

19 Jieun Kim at al.

Archives of Disease in Childhood August 11, 2020

Extreme poverty rises and a generation sees future

slip away Elias Meseret and Cara Anna

AP August 10, 2020

Fear first, education last? Paul Peterson and Scott Atlas

The Hill July 30, 2020

Meme of day

g

Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Cartoons"

4

The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves

Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

5

The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves

Share of deceased population from day of first fatality

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

6

Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: number of days it takes to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

7

Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases

14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

8

Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

9

Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions

Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations

10

From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande

New York

US ex-New York

Texas172.65 bp of population infected

33.9 median population age

As of Aug 12

38.1 median population age

216.93 bp of population infected

38.2 median population age

154.09 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

11

The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)

California

Florida

Arizona259.30 bp of population infected

38.0 median population age

As of Aug 12

42.2 median population age

145.38 bp of population infected

36.7 median population age

252.72 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

12

Patient zero… and then everyone else

China

World ex-China

As of Aug 12

28.8 median population age

0.64 bp of population infected

37.4 median population age

32.65 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

13

Impact in the largest economies

Japan

Germany

France

As of Aug 12

41.2 median population age

30.47 bp of population infected

45.9 median population age

47.3 median population age

4.01 bp of population infected

26.32 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

14

Impact in The Anglosphere

United Kingdom

Canada

Australia7.85 bp of population infected

37.9 median population age

As of Aug 12

46.93 bp of population infected

40.5 median population age

31.77 bp of population infected

40.8 median population age

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

15

Impact in continental Europe

Italy

Spain

Switzerland

As of Aug 12

42.2 median population age

43.08 bp of population infected

44.9 median population age

45.5 median population age

41.62 bp of population infected

69.59 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

16

Impact in other hot-spots

South Korea

Singapore

Sweden

40.9 median population age

82.12 bp of population infected

As of Aug 12

41.8 median population age

2.84 bp of population infected

97.05 bp of population infected

34.6 median population age

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

17

Impact in the BRICs ex-China

India

Russia

Brazil

33.5 median population age

148.43 bp of population infected

As of Aug 12

39.6 median population age

26.8 median population age

17.38 bp of population infected

6.21 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

18

Impact in the Middle East and Africa

Israel

Iran

Africa (52 nations)

As of Aug 12

30.3 median population age

30.2 median population age

97.88 bp of population infected

37.84 bp of population infected

7.72 bp of population infected

19.7 median population age

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations