Third Lemann Dialogue – “Agricultural and Environmental Issues in Brazil”Third Lemann Dialogue – “Agricultural and Environmental Issues in Brazil”University of Illinois, 7-8 November 2013University of Illinois, 7-8 November 2013

Embrapa Strategic Intelligence SystemEmbrapa Strategic Intelligence System

Geraldo B. Martha Jr.Geraldo B. Martha Jr.Coordinator – Agropensa SystemCoordinator – Agropensa System

Deputy Head for Strategic Studies, Embrapa Studies and TrainingDeputy Head for Strategic Studies, Embrapa Studies and Training

Brazilian Agriculture:Brazilian Agriculture:Development and Future ProspectsDevelopment and Future Prospects

Outline

1960s – early 1970s1960s – early 1970s

PresentPresent

FutureFuture

Dependency

Policies

Cometitiveness

Innovations

Sustainability

Institutions

Intensification

Overcoming Food Insecurity and Achieving Competitiveness in the Agricultural Sector

• It is well accepted that sustainabilityIt is well accepted that sustainability’’s dimensions – technical, s dimensions – technical, economic, social and environmental – should be pursued;economic, social and environmental – should be pursued;

• Sustainability dimensions’ have strong interdependence linkages and, ideally, should be simultaneously met. In other words, to focus in a unique dimension will not reflect the multiple dimensions of sustainability. Agricultural production systems should design strategies that return win-win situations. When this ideal condition is not an option small loss-big gain situations should be targeted.

Sustainability

The Development of The Development of Brazilian Agriculture Brazilian Agriculture

(Technical Dimension)(Technical Dimension)

The Development of The Development of Brazilian Agriculture Brazilian Agriculture

(Technical Dimension)(Technical Dimension)

Brazil 1970 1975 1980 1985 1996 2006

Product index 100 139 173 211 244 343

Input index 100 122 142 149 137 153

TFP 100 114 122 142 178 224

Land productivity

100 135 162 196 230 324

Labor productivity

100 129 158 185 241 348

Gasques, Bastos, Bacchi, Valdes (2010).

Total Factor Productivity in Brazilian Agriculture

Yield growth rates in Brazilian agriculture

Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

Factors of growth in Brazilian agriculture

Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

Factors of growth in Brazilian agriculture

Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

“Productivity explained 79% of the growth in Brazilian beef production in the 1950 – 2006 period. The land-saving effect arising from these

productivity gains was 525 million ha!”

Intensity of agricultural research investments

ASTI/CGIAR (2012).

Development of a science-based tropical agriculture

Roles and contribution of agricultural research

Public R&D operated like a “Track Cleaning Car”, opening the way for a fast moving private sector

Public R&D operated like a “Track Cleaning Car”, opening the way for a fast moving private sector

PrioridadesPrioridadesMain Limitations

Removed byPublic R&D in

Brazil

Main LimitationsRemoved by

Public R&D inBrazil

Development of a Platform of Sustainable Practices

Development of a Platform of Sustainable Practices

“Tropicalization” of crops and animal

production systems

“Tropicalization” of crops and animal

production systems

Transformation of acidic, poor soils

into highly productive ag. land

Transformation of acidic, poor soils

into highly productive ag. land

Courtesy M.Lopes (2013).

Cerrado’s contribution to Brazilian agriculture

Pereira et al. (2012).

In 2006, the Cerrado’s contribution to Brazilian beef and milk production was around 40%

The Development of The Development of Brazilian AgricultureBrazilian Agriculture

(Socio-Economic (Socio-Economic Dimension)Dimension)

The Development of The Development of Brazilian AgricultureBrazilian Agriculture

(Socio-Economic (Socio-Economic Dimension)Dimension)

Evolution of food basket prices in São Paulo, Brazil (1975=100, real prices, Sept.2013)

Data from DIEESE, deflator IGP-DI (FGV), calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

The Development of The Development of Brazilian AgricultureBrazilian Agriculture

(Environmental Dimension)(Environmental Dimension)

The Development of The Development of Brazilian AgricultureBrazilian Agriculture

(Environmental Dimension)(Environmental Dimension)

Data from INPE.

Evolution of the deforestation rates

Natural Cerrado

Water body

Crops

Cultivated pastures

Urban areas

Reforestation

~ 85% of the Amazon Biome and ~ 55 % of the Cerrado Biome are

still covered with the original vegetation !

Sano et al., Pesq. Agrop. Bras., v.43, 153-156, 2008

Biome conservation in Brazil

Protected areas and biodiversity potential in selected South America countries

“100” is the maximum biodiversity potential.Data from the World Bank.

Innovations Connected to Value ChainsInnovations Connected to Value Chains

19

• A future intensive in knowledge and relationships;A future intensive in knowledge and relationships;

• Agriculture will be pressured in the direction of Agriculture will be pressured in the direction of multifunctionality (food, feed, fiber, energy, nutrition and health, multifunctionality (food, feed, fiber, energy, nutrition and health, environmental services, biomass, biomaterials, green chemistry,environmental services, biomass, biomaterials, green chemistry,…);…);

Future prospects

• A future with complex trans-boundary challenges (climate A future with complex trans-boundary challenges (climate change, biological security, …);change, biological security, …);

• A future of increasing complexity demanding timely responses;A future of increasing complexity demanding timely responses;

Adapted from M.Lopes (2013).

Flow in agricultural value chain

Innovation flow and Embrapa’s macro-themes

Markets, policies and rural development

Production Systems

New sciences: biotechnology, nanotechnology, geotechnology

Source: Embrapa/Agropensa

Natural Resources

and Climate change

Food security,

nutrition and health

Agroindustry and biomass

technology and Green chemistry

Animal and Plant Health and Safety in

the value chain

Automation, Precision Ag.

& ICT

Macro-themes improve the focus and the speed of the intelligence process (collection, organization,

analysis) as well as the diffusion of information and knowledge.

Brazilian agribusiness composition v. possibilities to aggregate value

USP/ESALQ/Cepea (2013), elaboration G.B. Martha.

Concluding RemarksConcluding RemarksConcluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

• There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance;pastoral systems will be of central importance;

• The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropicsefficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics;;

Concluding remarks

Martha Jr.(2013).

Limits for the expansion of supply, if 2013 crop area is maintained

Concluding remarks

Martha Jr.(2013).

Concluding remarks

Pastoral systems intensification and land-use

• There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance;pastoral systems will be of central importance;

• Tecnologies for a low-carbon agriculture: availability, investment Tecnologies for a low-carbon agriculture: availability, investment need, capacity strengthening, adoption;need, capacity strengthening, adoption;

• The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropicsefficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics;;

Concluding remarks

Disseminate information (+ ICT), capacity strengthening, TT

Embrapa Strategic Intelligence System

"Targeting possible futures, their challenges, solutions and opportunities for the technological development of

Brazilian Agriculture"

Thank You !