By Dr. Songpope Polachan

The President, Geological Society of Thailand

The Sustainable, Security of Thailand

Energy Sector

Topic

World Energy Outlook Thailand Energy Outlook Thailand Petroleum Reserve Energy Supply Side The Crisis The Solution The integration of the plan to be implement Geological Society of Thailand (GST) Q&A

2

DMF Data

• Reserve

10.06 TCF

Reserve 7,361 TCF

Russian 1,575 TCF

Production 317 BCFD

USA 63 BCFD

Consumption 312 BCFD

USA 67 BCFD

7,361 TCF R/P ~ 64 years

World Energy Report

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy Outlook 2012

Reserve Production and Consumption of NG

1.1% 0.14% 1.45%

(17) (44) (25)

• Production

3.5 BCFD

• Consumption

4.4 BCFD

Thailand have NG proved reserve 10.06 TCF (World Ranking: 44) ,0.14%)

Reserve 1,653 Billion BBL

Venezuela 297 Billion BBL

Production 84 MMBBLD

Saudi Arabia 11 MMBBLD

Consumption 88 MMBBLD

USA 19 MMBBLD

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy Outlook 2012

1,653 Billion BBL R/P ~ 54 years

World Energy Report

Reserve, production and Consumption Of Crude Oil

(22) (52) (33)

0.03% 0.4% 1.23%

DMF Data

Reserve (Crude Oil+Condensate)

0.453 Billion BBL

• Production

0.21 MMBBLD

• Consumption

0.9 MMBBLD

Thailand have Crude oil and Condensate prove reserve 453 MMBBL (0.03%)

Reserve 860 Billion Tonnes

USA 237 Billion Tonnes

Production 3,955 MM toe

China 1,956 MM toe

Consumption 3,724 MM toe

China 1,839 MM toe

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy Outlook 2012

860,938 MMTONNES R/P ~ 120 years

World Energy Report

Reserve, Production and Consumption of Coal

Thailand use coal as the source of energy very less (0.4%)

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy Outlook 2011

Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear

Coal is the major source of

energy

Oil 28%

Gas 11% Coal 52%

Hydro 5%

Nuclear 3%

China is the most energy consumption

country

Thailand consume energy ranking No. 8 (Asia Pacific)

MM toe

Renew ables 1%

World Energy Report Asia Pacific: The energy consumption

7

The Domestic energy consumption

Oil 36% NG 44%

Lignite 11% Etc 3%

(+3.5%)

boed 1,845 1,783

The primary energy consumption (2011) = 1.845 MMBOE

The type of fuel for primary energy

The major source of primary energy come from Petroleum ( 80%) Thailand import energy 46%

Hydro 6%

(+7.2%)

1,663

Most use for electricity Most use for the transportation

1.969 (Avg. 6 months, 2012, +6.7%)

2010/ 1.81

2011/ 1.95

Import value

• Crude Oil 0.75 0.98 • Petroleum Product 0.07 0.09 • NG 0.08 0.09 • Coal 0.039 0.042 • Electricity 0.008 0.012 • LNG 0.000 0.016 รวม 0.95 1.24

(+30%)

ลานบาท

Power Refined Products Gas Lignite/coa

l

Renewable

Energy

8 Energy cost is 18.5% of GDP

2553

2554

(+7.3%) 2011 2010

Type of energy usage

Agriculture 5%

Industrial 37%

Business and house hold 22%

Transportation 36% Major source

Transportation : Oil

Industrial : Coal and electricity

Business and house hold: Electricity and

renewable energy

Type of energy usage and the value of energy

The total value for the energy usage 1.95 Trillion baht

Petroleum Reserve

Proved (P1)

Probable (P2)

Possiable (P3)

3P (P1+P2+P3)

NG (TCF) 10.06 10.79 6.57 27.42

Condensate (MMBBL) 238.7 306.3 126.4 671.4

Crude Oil (MMBBL) 214.6 383.1 209.8 807.4

Total (MMBOE) 2,166 2,517 1,460 6,144

2011

9

1P, R/P = 7.8

2P, R/P = 16.3

3P, R/P = 21.5

Target 1P , R/P = 10

10.06

1.27

1P R/P < 10

* Reserve include MTJDA

TCF years

1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Y Y Y

Domestic Supply

Domestic Supply 42% of Primary Consumption

Primary Demand 1,845,477 BOED

*Incl MTJDA

Erawan Satun Platong

Nampong

Funan Bongkot

Pailin Benchamas

Arthit

MTJDA

Sirikit Bingmuang

Tantawan

Jasmine

Easr Nasanun

SKL Bualuang

Arunothai BuraphaL53A

10

Domestic Supply 2011 778,540 BOED

• NG 3,300 MMSCFD

• Condensate 76,054 BOED

• Crude Oil 133,988 BOED

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 NG NG NG NG CONDY CRUDE

NG 100 BOD MMSCFD

Future Demand

The demand increase 3% per year: Next 10 years, the demand will be 2.6 MMBOED

: 2011 1,845

2011

43 % ~18 %

พนบารเรลเทยบเทาน ามนดบตอวน

?

DMF - Accelerate the domestic E and P - OCA Maintain the supply level

NG Crude Oil

+ 3% / ป

Import - LNG - Crude Oil - Electricity (Neighbor)

Accelerate - Renewable Energy - Nuclear Power

MOEN

AVG, 6 Months: 2012 1,969

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

NG 100 BOED

OCA

Import piped gas

LNG import

LNG Phase I (5 MMT)

mmscfd

LNG Phase II (5 MMT)

M-9

Long term Supply (3P)

Contract Extension

Bid 21

Trans ASEAN

Grid Line

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

NG trend will lack soon, effect to the electricity and Petrochemical cost

13

The solution to avoid gas disruption in the future

1. Imported Pipe Gas 2. LNG import 3. OCA 4. Bid 21 5. Contract Extension (Expired)

All the thing need to do ASAP to avoid the NG

disruption in the future (2017)

Biodiesel

Performance Secure Sustainable

Goal

• Decrease the import crude oil • Fuel Diversification • Develop domestic source of energy

Increase the performance - District Cooling/ Cogeneration - Energy usage re-structure

Improve and promote the renewable energy

- Solar Wind Biogas Biomass Hydro Gasohol Biodiesel

- NGV, Nuclear Power

Energy Security

- Accelerate the domestic E and P - ASEAN hydropower grid & gas pipeline

Action

Hydro

Mass Transit

Biomass Solar

Wind

NGV Gasohol

E&P

District Cooling/ Cogen

The energy Security

LNG (NG Security policy)

Production Liquefaction Trading &

Marketing Shipping

Regasification

& Terminal Markets

LNG Value Chain

LNG Ship LNG Jetty & Terminal LNG Storage Tank

LNG encourage the security of NG system

Phase 1: 5 MMTONNES/year

Phase2,3: 2014-2016

Yetagun

YadanaWang Noi

Tha Luang Kaeng Khoi

Rayong

SBKRatchaburi

Thap Sakae

Khanom

Benjamas

TantawanPlatong

PRPPailin Arthit

Bongkot

JDA

Erawan

Bang Pakong

Expansion Under Master Plan 3

TTM Pipeline

Karnchanaburi

Existing 1st Pipeline

Existing 2nd Pipeline

Power Plant

Gas Field

Puhom

Nampong

Chevron Add.

Arthit FPSO

Pailin Add.

South Bongkot

Yetagun

YadanaWang Noi

Tha Luang Kaeng Khoi

Rayong

SBKRatchaburi

Thap Sakae

Khanom

Benjamas

TantawanPlatong

PRPPailin Arthit

Bongkot

JDA

Erawan

Bang Pakong

Expansion Under Master Plan 3

TTM Pipeline

Karnchanaburi

Existing 1st Pipeline

Existing 2nd Pipeline

Power Plant

Gas Field

Puhom

Nampong

Chevron Add.

Arthit FPSO

Pailin Add.

South Bongkot

W.Corridor/Myanmar

M9

น ำเขำปจจบน/อนำคต

OCA-Cambodia

E. Natuna-Indonesia

แหลงในอนำคต

YadanaYadana

Yetagun

Natuna

Existing Transmission Networks (2,501 km.)

East West Total

Capacity 2,240 1,300 3,540

(MMcfd)

Trans Thai-Malaysia Pipeline (365 km.)

Capacity (MMcfd) 1,020

Expansion under Pipeline Master Plan 3

(1,500 km.)

East West Total

Capacity 3,300 700 4,000

(MMcfd)

Total Capacity (4,366 km.)

East West Total

(MMcfd) 5,540 2,000 8,560

West Corridor

Cambodia

E.Natua-Indonesia

โครงขำยปจจบน (3,513 กม.)

East West Total

Capacity 3,080 1,300 4,380

(MMscfd)

Trans Thai-Malaysia (363 กม.)

Capacity (MMscfd) 1,020

แผนขยำยในอนำคต (445 กม.)

East West Total

Capacity 2,600 700 3,300

(MMscfd)

Total Capacity (4,321 กม.)East West Total

(MMscfd) 5,680 2,000 8,700

16

Future Field Future/present Import

Trans ASEAN Pipeline

Malaysia Electricity

Change or Buy 300+300 MW

Petroleum

MTJA

Cambodia Electricity

Sating Nam 50-120 MW

Koh Kong 3,600 MW

Petroleum

OCA MALAYSIA

China

Lao PDR

Myanmar

Cambodia

Thailand

Vietnam

Myanmar Electricity

Tar Sang 7,000 MW

N. Salawin 4,000 MW

S. Salawin 500 MW

Hudjee 1,200 MW

Yawartid 600 MW

Tanawsree 700 MW

Chiangtung 270 MW

Petroleum

Yadana, Yetagun

M7/M9/A1

Laos Electricity

Follow MOU 7000 MW

:2015

Tern Hin Bun 214 MW

Haui hour 126 MW

Nam tern2 920 MW

Nam Ngum2 597 MW

Hongsa lignite 1,400 MW

China Electricity

Follow MOU 3000 MW

:2017

Tran ASEAN Grid line

Natural Gas 71.9 %

Diesel 0.03% Malaysia 0.1 %

Loas 1.1%

Hydropower 4.8%

Lignite 11.1%

Fuel oil 0.2%

Imported Coal 8.9%

Renewable Energy 1.5%

2009

29,000 MW

Natural Gas 24.8 %

Diesel 0%

Malaysia 0.002%

Neighbors 18.6%

Hydropower 0.02%

Lignite 0.02%

Fuel oil 0%

Imported Coal 21%

Renewable Energy 20%

2030

65,000 MW

Nuclear 11%

Decrease NG/ Increase Coal, Nuclear, Renewable and Buy Hydro electricity from neighbor countries

Fuel Diversification

19

The integration of the plan to be implement

Accelerate Domestic E

and P + OCA Decrease

Import amount

1.845 2.554 mmboed

Primary Consumption (mmboed)

Coal+ETC 20%

Petroleum 80%

Domestic 53%

ETC 0.25

NG 74%

Crude 26%

NG 44%

Crude 36%

Electricity 0.5 (24%)

Oil 1.2 (63%)

Value 1.95 Trillion Baht

Import 85% 0.98 Trillion Baht

- NG 70% - Coal - Hydro

Renewable 20-25% Nuclear

? %

- Fuel diversification Reduce Risk

- Ethanol E85 E20 E10 1.3-9 MMlitre/Day - Biodiesel B5 B3 1.9-4.5 MMlitre/day - NGV 180-690 MMSCFD

- Benzene - Diesel - LPG - ETC

2012 2011

+ 3% / year

20

"เสรมสรางความรความเขาใจและความรวมมอทางดานธรณวทยา ในหมสมาชกและสงคมไทย“

Promote geoscience awareness and cooperation

amongst members and Thai society.

The Geological Society of Thailand (GST) สมาคมธรณวทยาแหงประเทศไทย (ส.ธ.ท.)

http://www.gst.or.th

21

GST’s contribution regarding the energy sector :

• Helping prepare geoscientists and promoting public awareness in the energy industry.

• Country’s awareness on energy security with regards to AEC.

• Geosciences information related to energy on GST website (www.gst.or.th), social media network - Facebook and Twitter.

• Preparing curriculum packages for geoscience students for the energy sector within the context of the AEC : petroleum geology, geophysics, engineering geology and offshore technology.

22

International Geoscience Conference : GEOSEA 2012, 7-8 March 2012, Bangkok, Thailand

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