By Dr. Songpope Polachan
The President, Geological Society of Thailand
The Sustainable, Security of Thailand
Energy Sector
Topic
World Energy Outlook Thailand Energy Outlook Thailand Petroleum Reserve Energy Supply Side The Crisis The Solution The integration of the plan to be implement Geological Society of Thailand (GST) Q&A
2
DMF Data
• Reserve
10.06 TCF
Reserve 7,361 TCF
Russian 1,575 TCF
Production 317 BCFD
USA 63 BCFD
Consumption 312 BCFD
USA 67 BCFD
7,361 TCF R/P ~ 64 years
World Energy Report
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy Outlook 2012
Reserve Production and Consumption of NG
1.1% 0.14% 1.45%
(17) (44) (25)
• Production
3.5 BCFD
• Consumption
4.4 BCFD
Thailand have NG proved reserve 10.06 TCF (World Ranking: 44) ,0.14%)
Reserve 1,653 Billion BBL
Venezuela 297 Billion BBL
Production 84 MMBBLD
Saudi Arabia 11 MMBBLD
Consumption 88 MMBBLD
USA 19 MMBBLD
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy Outlook 2012
1,653 Billion BBL R/P ~ 54 years
World Energy Report
Reserve, production and Consumption Of Crude Oil
(22) (52) (33)
0.03% 0.4% 1.23%
DMF Data
Reserve (Crude Oil+Condensate)
0.453 Billion BBL
• Production
0.21 MMBBLD
• Consumption
0.9 MMBBLD
Thailand have Crude oil and Condensate prove reserve 453 MMBBL (0.03%)
Reserve 860 Billion Tonnes
USA 237 Billion Tonnes
Production 3,955 MM toe
China 1,956 MM toe
Consumption 3,724 MM toe
China 1,839 MM toe
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy Outlook 2012
860,938 MMTONNES R/P ~ 120 years
World Energy Report
Reserve, Production and Consumption of Coal
Thailand use coal as the source of energy very less (0.4%)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy Outlook 2011
Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear
Coal is the major source of
energy
Oil 28%
Gas 11% Coal 52%
Hydro 5%
Nuclear 3%
China is the most energy consumption
country
Thailand consume energy ranking No. 8 (Asia Pacific)
MM toe
Renew ables 1%
World Energy Report Asia Pacific: The energy consumption
7
The Domestic energy consumption
Oil 36% NG 44%
Lignite 11% Etc 3%
(+3.5%)
boed 1,845 1,783
The primary energy consumption (2011) = 1.845 MMBOE
The type of fuel for primary energy
The major source of primary energy come from Petroleum ( 80%) Thailand import energy 46%
Hydro 6%
(+7.2%)
1,663
Most use for electricity Most use for the transportation
1.969 (Avg. 6 months, 2012, +6.7%)
2010/ 1.81
2011/ 1.95
Import value
• Crude Oil 0.75 0.98 • Petroleum Product 0.07 0.09 • NG 0.08 0.09 • Coal 0.039 0.042 • Electricity 0.008 0.012 • LNG 0.000 0.016 รวม 0.95 1.24
(+30%)
ลานบาท
Power Refined Products Gas Lignite/coa
l
Renewable
Energy
8 Energy cost is 18.5% of GDP
2553
2554
(+7.3%) 2011 2010
Type of energy usage
Agriculture 5%
Industrial 37%
Business and house hold 22%
Transportation 36% Major source
Transportation : Oil
Industrial : Coal and electricity
Business and house hold: Electricity and
renewable energy
Type of energy usage and the value of energy
The total value for the energy usage 1.95 Trillion baht
Petroleum Reserve
Proved (P1)
Probable (P2)
Possiable (P3)
3P (P1+P2+P3)
NG (TCF) 10.06 10.79 6.57 27.42
Condensate (MMBBL) 238.7 306.3 126.4 671.4
Crude Oil (MMBBL) 214.6 383.1 209.8 807.4
Total (MMBOE) 2,166 2,517 1,460 6,144
2011
9
1P, R/P = 7.8
2P, R/P = 16.3
3P, R/P = 21.5
Target 1P , R/P = 10
10.06
1.27
1P R/P < 10
* Reserve include MTJDA
TCF years
1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Y Y Y
Domestic Supply
Domestic Supply 42% of Primary Consumption
Primary Demand 1,845,477 BOED
*Incl MTJDA
Erawan Satun Platong
Nampong
Funan Bongkot
Pailin Benchamas
Arthit
MTJDA
Sirikit Bingmuang
Tantawan
Jasmine
Easr Nasanun
SKL Bualuang
Arunothai BuraphaL53A
10
Domestic Supply 2011 778,540 BOED
• NG 3,300 MMSCFD
• Condensate 76,054 BOED
• Crude Oil 133,988 BOED
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 NG NG NG NG CONDY CRUDE
NG 100 BOD MMSCFD
Future Demand
The demand increase 3% per year: Next 10 years, the demand will be 2.6 MMBOED
: 2011 1,845
2011
43 % ~18 %
พนบารเรลเทยบเทาน ามนดบตอวน
?
DMF - Accelerate the domestic E and P - OCA Maintain the supply level
NG Crude Oil
+ 3% / ป
Import - LNG - Crude Oil - Electricity (Neighbor)
Accelerate - Renewable Energy - Nuclear Power
MOEN
AVG, 6 Months: 2012 1,969
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
NG 100 BOED
OCA
Import piped gas
LNG import
LNG Phase I (5 MMT)
mmscfd
LNG Phase II (5 MMT)
M-9
Long term Supply (3P)
Contract Extension
Bid 21
Trans ASEAN
Grid Line
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
NG trend will lack soon, effect to the electricity and Petrochemical cost
13
The solution to avoid gas disruption in the future
1. Imported Pipe Gas 2. LNG import 3. OCA 4. Bid 21 5. Contract Extension (Expired)
All the thing need to do ASAP to avoid the NG
disruption in the future (2017)
Biodiesel
Performance Secure Sustainable
Goal
• Decrease the import crude oil • Fuel Diversification • Develop domestic source of energy
Increase the performance - District Cooling/ Cogeneration - Energy usage re-structure
Improve and promote the renewable energy
- Solar Wind Biogas Biomass Hydro Gasohol Biodiesel
- NGV, Nuclear Power
Energy Security
- Accelerate the domestic E and P - ASEAN hydropower grid & gas pipeline
Action
Hydro
Mass Transit
Biomass Solar
Wind
NGV Gasohol
E&P
District Cooling/ Cogen
The energy Security
LNG (NG Security policy)
Production Liquefaction Trading &
Marketing Shipping
Regasification
& Terminal Markets
LNG Value Chain
LNG Ship LNG Jetty & Terminal LNG Storage Tank
LNG encourage the security of NG system
Phase 1: 5 MMTONNES/year
Phase2,3: 2014-2016
Yetagun
YadanaWang Noi
Tha Luang Kaeng Khoi
Rayong
SBKRatchaburi
Thap Sakae
Khanom
Benjamas
TantawanPlatong
PRPPailin Arthit
Bongkot
JDA
Erawan
Bang Pakong
Expansion Under Master Plan 3
TTM Pipeline
Karnchanaburi
Existing 1st Pipeline
Existing 2nd Pipeline
Power Plant
Gas Field
Puhom
Nampong
Chevron Add.
Arthit FPSO
Pailin Add.
South Bongkot
Yetagun
YadanaWang Noi
Tha Luang Kaeng Khoi
Rayong
SBKRatchaburi
Thap Sakae
Khanom
Benjamas
TantawanPlatong
PRPPailin Arthit
Bongkot
JDA
Erawan
Bang Pakong
Expansion Under Master Plan 3
TTM Pipeline
Karnchanaburi
Existing 1st Pipeline
Existing 2nd Pipeline
Power Plant
Gas Field
Puhom
Nampong
Chevron Add.
Arthit FPSO
Pailin Add.
South Bongkot
W.Corridor/Myanmar
M9
น ำเขำปจจบน/อนำคต
OCA-Cambodia
E. Natuna-Indonesia
แหลงในอนำคต
YadanaYadana
Yetagun
Natuna
Existing Transmission Networks (2,501 km.)
East West Total
Capacity 2,240 1,300 3,540
(MMcfd)
Trans Thai-Malaysia Pipeline (365 km.)
Capacity (MMcfd) 1,020
Expansion under Pipeline Master Plan 3
(1,500 km.)
East West Total
Capacity 3,300 700 4,000
(MMcfd)
Total Capacity (4,366 km.)
East West Total
(MMcfd) 5,540 2,000 8,560
West Corridor
Cambodia
E.Natua-Indonesia
โครงขำยปจจบน (3,513 กม.)
East West Total
Capacity 3,080 1,300 4,380
(MMscfd)
Trans Thai-Malaysia (363 กม.)
Capacity (MMscfd) 1,020
แผนขยำยในอนำคต (445 กม.)
East West Total
Capacity 2,600 700 3,300
(MMscfd)
Total Capacity (4,321 กม.)East West Total
(MMscfd) 5,680 2,000 8,700
16
Future Field Future/present Import
Trans ASEAN Pipeline
Malaysia Electricity
Change or Buy 300+300 MW
Petroleum
MTJA
Cambodia Electricity
Sating Nam 50-120 MW
Koh Kong 3,600 MW
Petroleum
OCA MALAYSIA
China
Lao PDR
Myanmar
Cambodia
Thailand
Vietnam
Myanmar Electricity
Tar Sang 7,000 MW
N. Salawin 4,000 MW
S. Salawin 500 MW
Hudjee 1,200 MW
Yawartid 600 MW
Tanawsree 700 MW
Chiangtung 270 MW
Petroleum
Yadana, Yetagun
M7/M9/A1
Laos Electricity
Follow MOU 7000 MW
:2015
Tern Hin Bun 214 MW
Haui hour 126 MW
Nam tern2 920 MW
Nam Ngum2 597 MW
Hongsa lignite 1,400 MW
China Electricity
Follow MOU 3000 MW
:2017
Tran ASEAN Grid line
Natural Gas 71.9 %
Diesel 0.03% Malaysia 0.1 %
Loas 1.1%
Hydropower 4.8%
Lignite 11.1%
Fuel oil 0.2%
Imported Coal 8.9%
Renewable Energy 1.5%
2009
29,000 MW
Natural Gas 24.8 %
Diesel 0%
Malaysia 0.002%
Neighbors 18.6%
Hydropower 0.02%
Lignite 0.02%
Fuel oil 0%
Imported Coal 21%
Renewable Energy 20%
2030
65,000 MW
Nuclear 11%
Decrease NG/ Increase Coal, Nuclear, Renewable and Buy Hydro electricity from neighbor countries
Fuel Diversification
19
The integration of the plan to be implement
Accelerate Domestic E
and P + OCA Decrease
Import amount
1.845 2.554 mmboed
Primary Consumption (mmboed)
Coal+ETC 20%
Petroleum 80%
Domestic 53%
ETC 0.25
NG 74%
Crude 26%
NG 44%
Crude 36%
Electricity 0.5 (24%)
Oil 1.2 (63%)
Value 1.95 Trillion Baht
Import 85% 0.98 Trillion Baht
- NG 70% - Coal - Hydro
Renewable 20-25% Nuclear
? %
- Fuel diversification Reduce Risk
- Ethanol E85 E20 E10 1.3-9 MMlitre/Day - Biodiesel B5 B3 1.9-4.5 MMlitre/day - NGV 180-690 MMSCFD
- Benzene - Diesel - LPG - ETC
2012 2011
+ 3% / year
20
"เสรมสรางความรความเขาใจและความรวมมอทางดานธรณวทยา ในหมสมาชกและสงคมไทย“
Promote geoscience awareness and cooperation
amongst members and Thai society.
The Geological Society of Thailand (GST) สมาคมธรณวทยาแหงประเทศไทย (ส.ธ.ท.)
http://www.gst.or.th
21
GST’s contribution regarding the energy sector :
• Helping prepare geoscientists and promoting public awareness in the energy industry.
• Country’s awareness on energy security with regards to AEC.
• Geosciences information related to energy on GST website (www.gst.or.th), social media network - Facebook and Twitter.
• Preparing curriculum packages for geoscience students for the energy sector within the context of the AEC : petroleum geology, geophysics, engineering geology and offshore technology.
22
International Geoscience Conference : GEOSEA 2012, 7-8 March 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
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