The Performance Framework

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

Laurent Tabernier EUROCONTROLProject Episode 3

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

2

Scope of the presentation

• Objectives of Performance Framework

• Influence Diagrams and Influence Models, what is the difference

• Where the work started (link to SESAR Definition Phase)

• What results have been obtained

• Recommendation for SESAR

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

3

Objectives of Performance Framework

• Design of a methodology to build an ECAC-wide picture of the potential benefits across 41 countries, 2000 airports, 16 million flights/year with 180 proposed improvements is a BIG challenge.

• What were the existing models?

• We have developed a Performance Framework that establishes a methodology to build a model for future ECAC-wide assessment.

This methodology is based on …

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

4

This methodology is based on:

A catalogue of KPIs for consistency and to capture data about the influencing factors.

A better understanding of the elements that influenceinfluence the performances (Influence diagrams) for Capacity, Efficiency, Flexibility, Predictability, Safety, Environment Key Performance Areas (SESAR KPA).

Modelling activities (mechanism and mathematical formulae).

The PF provides a methodology and a starting point for acommon set of Key Performances Indicators - this will determine

“WHAT” should be measured.

Objectives of Performance Framework

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

5

Influence Diagrams and Influence Models

• What is the difference ?

An Influence Diagram(ID) is essentially a graphical representation of the probabilistic interdependance between influencing factors.The approach originates from the field of decision analysis and uses expert judgement in its formulations.

An Influence Model represents the elements that are linked and the mechanism and mathematical formulae to combine their influences.

The addition of quantification data to the identified mechanisms will create an Influence Model that can be used to assess the potential impact of various operational improvements (OI-steps) on the Key Performance Indicators (KPI) for each Key Performance Area (KPA) considered.

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

6

Influence Diagrams and Influence Models

Airport

Enroute

TMA

FuelEfficiency

FuelEfficiency

PIs

Taxi out

Taxi in

TMAdeparture

TMAarrival

Fuel efficiency- Airport

Fuel efficiency- TMA

Fuel efficiency- Enroute

On stand

Enroute

d

dArrival sequencing

and spacing

Interrupteddescents

Meteo

STARs

Arrival runway

Airspace structure(Arrivals)

Aircraft Spacing

Aircraft Sequencing

OI steps influencingInterrupted descents

OI steps influencingMeteo

OI steps influencingSTARS

OI steps influencingAirspace structure

OI steps influencingsequencing

OI steps influencingspacing

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

7

Where the work started

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

8

What results have been obtained

TMA Arrival repository

Example of input data from WP5

exercises CDA at Schiphol airport

Example of input data from WP5

exercises CDA at Koln airport

Example of input data from WP5

exercises CDA at Dusseldorf airport

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

9

Airport

Enroute

TMA

FuelEfficiency

FuelEfficiency

PIs

Taxi-out

Taxi-in

TMAdeparture

TMAarrival

Fuel efficiency- Airport

Fuel efficiency- TMA

Fuel efficiency- Enroute

On stand

Enroute

TornadoAnalysis - Fuel

efficiency

To Environment

To Environment

To Environment

Show

resu

lt

What results have been obtained

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

10

From Efficiency

From Efficiency

From Efficiency

What results have been obtained

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

11

Recommendation for SESAR

• IM and PF should be started at the beginning of the validation process (to create a baseline) and should be executed and refined along the project.

• Validation exercises results and experts are necessary to populate those IM with quantification data.

• Influence diagrams and model must be consistent and further detailed where needed (D3 and D4 lesson learnt).

• Influence model should be used to prioritise validation exercises, using the sensitivity and importance analysis features of the tool.

• Influence model can be a tool to understand and explain performance behaviour and possible performance improvements.

• Extrapolation from Local to ECAC-wide is difficult but needed.

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

1212

"All models are wrong but some are useful"

G. Box

“Better to be approximately right rather than precisely wrong”

JM Keyne's, Daniel Pauly,

Humour

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Ep

isod

e 3

- C

AA

TS

II Fin

al D

isse

min

ati

on E

vent

1313

28th DASC ConferenceBest of Session award