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Boulder County Real Estate
2nd Quarter 2014
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As we analyzed the sales results for the second quarter, the numbers didn’t seem to reflect the market. The
number of sales was down slightly (2.7%) but that is like hearing a World War I report that casualties were
down slightly and pretending to understand what is going on. More relevant to the understanding of the local
real estate market are “Days to Offer”, “Sales to List Price Ratio” and “Median Sales Price”. I will go through
each in order.
Days to Offer Days to Offer Days to Offer Days to Offer When someone says that “the real estate market is good”, I think
they are referring to the perception of how long it’s taking for their
neighbors houses to sell. The technical term is “Days to Offer” as
opposed to “Days on Market” which includes the time the house took
to go from contract to closing. Days to offer begins when the prop-
erty goes on the MLS and continues until it is marked as under con-
tract or pending. When I get the question asking how long it’s going
to take to sell their home, this is what they mean. During the second
quarter, the average Days to Offer of all properties in Boulder
County was 31. Of course there were many homes that sold almost
immediately (in practice, even if an offer is received on the first day the DTO will be 3 or 4 because it takes
a bit of time to negotiate and get the paperwork done) but an average of one month is truly fast. Last year
was a similar market and the DTO was 42. In 2012, it was 74, 2011 it was 89 and in 2010 it was 77. This
year the inventory was low and with housing flying quickly off the market the problem was exasperated.
Sales to List Price RatioSales to List Price RatioSales to List Price RatioSales to List Price Ratio A seller can put any price they want on their home. You see it all over Zillow with their “Make me Move” fea-
ture. Joe Homeowner in a fit of especially clear thinking one night at 3 am signs up for the service by listing
his home which is worth $250,000 for $499,000. What the heck, maybe someone from China will come in and
pay cash. He’ll let his wife in on the big plan once the dream comes true. Usually once a home seller meets
with a Realtor and actually lists their home on the MLS the hazy reasoning that a buyer might pay $499,000
has lifted and clearer heads and data have prevailed. Still there, it is common for a seller to want to ask that
extra 5% to “see what will happen”. In a normal market buyers see the premium price for what it is and wait
for the price to come down. In a frenzied market, like the one we had this spring, buyers tend to quickly jus-
tify a reasonable price jump and pay at or near the list price. Traditionally, in the Boulder area the ratio be-
tween the sales price and the listing price has been around 97%. This means that the average negotiation is
around 3%. This year for all sold properties in Boulder County the sales price to list price ratio was 99.01%.
This means that the average negotiation was 1%. Included in this figure were all of the homes that sold for
over full price. By any measure, this is a sellers market.
Median Sales PriceMedian Sales PriceMedian Sales PriceMedian Sales Price How much ones home is worth is a big component about how one feels about their overall financial picture.
Houses selling quickly and for near their asking price are strong indicators for the more important measure of
Median Sales Price. Over the past two springs, housing prices have increased. How much is localized to each
neighborhood/home and coming up with an overall figure is fraught with some pitfalls. So far this year more
homes are selling in higher price ranges. Is this a measure that all prices are rising or is it that more “high
end” buyers are purchasing homes and thereby bringing up the average. It could be both. FHFA.gov measures
same house sales which eliminates this problem. FHFA.gov reported the 1 year appreciation ended March 31st
for Boulder County to be 8.1%. I would expect that number to increase for the second quarter.
As you browse through the rest of this report you will find a number of market measures displayed for smaller
areas within our market. Boulder and Longmont have the most sales in the area but the real estate markets in
those areas are very different. Enjoy the report!
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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tracks home values in 283 metropolitan areas across the
United States. The top graph shows Boulder County’s appreciation on a quarterly basis compared to the
United States average. Data is available through the first quarter. Appreciation rates slowed from the
fourth quarter to the first quarter. Boulder’s appreciation outpaced the national average. According to
FHFA.gov, median home prices in Boulder County are 8.1% above where they were a year ago. The
lower graph shows Boulder’s national ranking in appreciation over time. The one year appreciation ranks
us 63rd among the 283 metropolitan districts which were surveyed in the most recent study.
Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1st Qtr.
2009
2nd Qtr.
2009
3rd Qtr.
2009
4th Qtr.
2009
1st Qtr.
2010
2nd Qtr.
2010
3rd Qtr.
2010
4th Qtr.
2010
1st Qtr.
2011
2nd Qtr.
2011
3rd Qtr.
2011
4th Qtr.
2011
1st Qtr.
2012
2nd Qtr.
2012
3rd Qtr.
2012
4th Qtr.
2012
1st Qtr.
2013
2nd Qtr.
2013
3rd Qtr.
2013
4th Qtr.
2013
1st Qtr.
2014
One Year Appreciation
Source FHFA.gov
Boulder County United States
0
50
100
150
200
250
2nd Qtr.
2006
4th Qtr.
2006
2nd Qtr.
2007
4th Qtr.
2007
2nd Qtr.
2008
4th Qtr.
2008
2nd Qtr.
2009
4th Qtr.
2009
2nd Qtr.
2010
4th Qtr.
2010
2nd Qtr.
2011
4th Qtr.
2011
2nd Qtr.
2012
4th Qtr.
2012
2nd Qtr.
2013
4th Qtr.
2013
FHFA Ranking Ranking of one year Appreciation
(280 Total Metro Areas)
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Total sales were down just 1.6% in the 2nd quarter compared to a year ago. The 2nd quarter
had the third most transactions for any quarter over the past five years. Throughout Boulder
County, 67% of all real estate sales during the quarter were single family homes. The pie graph
on the right shows the breakdown of the percentage of properties that closed during the quar-
ter in each area. 31% of the closings during the quarter took place in Boulder, followed by
Longmont with 29%. What is listed as “Plains” is the suburban plains which includes, Gunbarrel,
Niwot, Lyons, the Boulder County side of Erie and all the rural area in between. 15% of all
closings took place in the Suburban Plains.
Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
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Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q 1
2014
Q2
2014
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity Boulder County
67%
29%
4%
Boulder County Sales by Type
Residential Attached Other
31%
6%
10%29%
4%
5%
15%
Boulder County Sales by AreaBoulder Louisville Lafayette Longmont Superior Mountains Plains
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The charts on this page of-
fer an interesting view of
the real estate market in
Boulder County.
The top chart shows what
percentage of the sales
happened in each price
range over the past four
quarters. Usually the data is
similar but what stands out
for the most recent quarter
is that as prices increased,
more sales shifted from the
$250k and less range to
the $250k to $500k range.
72% of the sales in the
county sold for less than
$500,000.
The lower chart shows
prices in Boulder County
over the last five years on
a quarterly basis. The me-
dian prices in the second
quarter increased a just a
bit but it was enough to set
a new record for median
prices. Our values are much
higher than the national av-
erage. The overall trend is
upward with price spikes
common in the spring of
the year.
Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County
32%
33%
32%
29%
44%
42%
41%
43%
14%
14%
17%
18%
5%
6%
4%
6%
5%
5%
6%
5%
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q 1 2014
Q2 2014
Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q 1
2014
Q2
2014
Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate
Median Price
Average Price
US Existing Median Price
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Sales within the City of Boulder decreased by 4.7% during the second quarter this year when
compared to last year. More condos and townhomes sold in the City of Boulder than single
family homes. This past quarter 53% of the sales were for attached dwellings and 47% were
single family homes. Sales during the quarter were fairly evenly spread throughout the city. The
most sales took place in 80301 and 80303.
City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
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Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
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Q4
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Q1
2011
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Q1
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Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity City of Boulder
47%
53%
Sales by Type City of Boulder
Residential Attached
24%
19%
22%
20%
15%
City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code
80301 80302 80303 80304 80305
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The City of Boulder
sells more homes in
luxury quadrant than
any other area in the
county. 72% of the
sales countywide were
below $500,000, in the
City of Boulder only
54% of the sales were
below that threshold.
Within Boulder, sales
over $1 million were
11% of the market this
past quarter, this is
over double the per-
centage of the county.
The lower chart shows
prices in the City of
Boulder over the past
five years. During that
time, prices have seen
some good gains. Pre-
vious to that the prices
were fairly stagnant.
The median price for
the second quarter in
Boulder for all residen-
tial properties sold was
$455,000 which is a
new record.
City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder
25%
23%
24%
22%
34%
34%
35%
32%
22%
25%
22%
25%
11%
9%
8%
10%
8%
10%
11%
11%
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
City of Boulder Price Trends
Median Price Average Price County Median
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East County includes sales in Erie, Lafayette, Louisville and Superior. The top graph shows the
sales activity in that area. Despite the low inventory, sales in East County have been very
strong. A vast majority of the sales in East County are single family homes. Just 21% of sales
were condos or townhomes. The pie chart on the right shows where the sales are taking place.
The areas where the most sales are taking place are Erie and Lafayette. Not much is happening
in Louisville or Superior because of the very low inventory of homes for sale.
East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity East County Communities
79%
21%
Sales by Type East County Communities
Residential Attached
17%
33%
13%
37%
East County Sales by Area
Louisville Lafayette Superior Erie
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The median price for
sales in Erie, Lafayette,
Louisville and Superior
during the first quarter
was $385,000. A vast
majority of the sales in
this geographical area
are in the $250 -
$500k range. There are
not very many sales
above $750,000 (just
23 sales or 5%) but
this number seems to
be increasing.
Unlike other areas in
Boulder County, prices
in East County have
shown a slow steady
climb over the past
few years.
There is a lack of in-
ventory in many of the
markets in East
County. The mix of
proximity, lifestyle and
median price had
made these communi-
ties very popular with
buyers. This has
caused positive price
pressure. Also, the new
homes being built es-
pecially in Erie are
priced higher than the
average.
East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County
22%
23%
18%
18%
61%
59%
62%
61%
13%
11%
16%
17%
3%
6%
3%
4%
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
East County - Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Price Trend in East Boulder County
Median Price Average Price County Median Price
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Gunbarrel is an area just northeast of Boul-
der. It is comprised of properties both within
the City of Boulder and others which are in
Boulder County. The general sales trend in
this area is positive, however this area has
far fewer sales than the other areas we
track. 52% of the sales in Gunbarrel were
single family homes and the balance were
condos and townhomes. There were just 77
sales in Gunbarrel during the most recent
quarter. This is down from 85 during the
second quarter last year.
GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q2
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Q4
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Q1
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Q3
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Q4
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Q1
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Q2
2014
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Gunbarrel
Residential48%
Attached52%
Sales by Type Gunbarrel
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The median price for
all sales in Gunbarrel
during the third quarter
was $319,900. 73% of
the sales in Gunbarrel
this past quarter
closed for $500,000 or
less. There were just 4
sales over $500,000
during the quarter.
The sample size for
Gunbarrel is smaller
than the other areas
we look at. Therefore,
the prices reflected in
the graph below are
more variable. Prices in
Gunbarrel ended the
quarter at the County
median price. A lot of
the variability also has
to do with the chang-
ing mix of condo sales
vs. single family sales.
During the most recent
quarter more condos
sold than usual and
this brought down the
median price. The av-
erage price increased
because there were
more sales in the
higher priced ranges.
GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel
24%
33%
41%
44%
40%
48%
41%
29%
30%
11%
18%
22%
6%
4%
0%
3%
0%
4%
0%
3%
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Gunbarrel Percent of Sales by Price Range
0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Price Trend in Gunbarrel
Median Price
Average Price
Boulder County Median
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Sales in Longmont were very strong during the second quarter. Sales nearly doubled between
the first and second quarter. 81% of the sales in Longmont are single family homes. Sales are
usually evenly spread throughout the city but this past quarter the highest sales activity were in
zip code 80504.
LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
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Q3
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Q4
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Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont
Residential81%
Attached19%
Sales by Type Longmont
35%
25%
40%
Sales by Zip Code - Longmont
80501 80503 80504
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The median price for
all sales in Longmont
during the second
quarter was $255,000,
up from $232,500 last
year. Nearly all of the
sales in Longmont
close for $500,000 or
less. There have only
been just six sales
over $750,000 during
the past four quarters.
The median and aver-
age prices in Longmont
are lower than the
county average. The
majority of homes in
Longmont are in the
$150,000 to $300,000
range. This past quar-
ter the average price
of a home that sold in
Longmont was
$285,645. The average
price for all homes
sold in Boulder County
was $432,136. If you
are looking for a rea-
sonably priced single
family home, Longmont
continues to be a
good place to look.
LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont
51%
56%
54%
48%
45%
40%
38%
46%
4%
3%
7%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Longmont Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Price Trend in Longmont
Median Price Average Price Boulder County
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Kearney Realty is a local boutique real estate firm with the mission to provide the Boulder Valley a high touch, high touch, high touch, high touch,
high tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experience. Each of our full time associates is empowered and engaged to give top
quality service based on impeccable ethics, consistent systems, professional development and cutting edge tools.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
January March May July September November
Boulder County Sales by Month
Single Family and Condos
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Boulder County Median PriceSingle Family and Condos
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2007200720072007 2008200820082008 2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013 2014201420142014
Homes on the Market
Boulder County Residential
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
January March May July September November
Boulder County - Percentage of Single Family Listings Under Contract
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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The charts on this page show activity on a weekly basis. The top chart shows new listings coming on
the market and the purple line (2013) shows the trend in lower inventory. The lower chart shows the
number of homes that have gone under contract on a weekly basis. This shows gross numbers not per-
centage increases. The combination of these two graphs demonstrate the shortage in the market.
0
50
100
150
200
250
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Boulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real Estate
New Listings New Listings New Listings New Listings ---- WeeklyWeeklyWeeklyWeekly
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
Ax
is T
itle
Weekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under Contract
2011
2012
2013
2014
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Kearney Realty - Our Core Values
1. Integrity and Class – Keeping our word; knowing what’s right and
doing what’s right.
2. Selfless Service – Exceeding expectations by focusing on excep-
tional service.
3. Caring - All of our relationships are based on mutual respect, co-
operation and consideration.
4. Connected - Give back to the profession and the community. 5%
of company profits are donated to local charities.
5. Innovation – Continually striving to find new and better ways to
serve our customers and associates.
0
50
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
Sa
les
Boulder County Real Estate
Number Sold - Weekly
2011
2012
2013
2014