new the kearney reportreport · 2013. 4. 18. · 1st qtr. 2012 2nd qtr. 2012 3rd qtr. 2012 4th qtr....

The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport

Boulder County Real Estate

1st Quarter 2013

KearneyRealty.com 2


And We’re Off...And We’re Off...And We’re Off...And We’re Off... The local real estate market showed surprising strength through the holidays and soon after the calendar

turned, buyers were out in force. Buyers currently have many reasons to purchase real estate. Some of the

most compelling at the moment are; low interest rates, economic recovery, recognition that prices have bot-

tomed out and are heading up, and increased buyer confidence (based upon the three previous reasons).

These causes have had one effect on the local housing market, super high demand. Through the first quarter,

sales in Boulder County are up 16% from a year ago and up 33% from the first quarter in 2011. The market

is humming along!

However, real estate transactions take two parties, a

buyer and a seller. And so far this year there have

been too few homeowners listing their homes for

sale. At the end of March there were 28% fewer

single family homes on the market in Boulder

County than there were a year ago (see graph). Cur-

rently, 40% of the homes on the market already

have a contract on them. To put it a different way,

of every 100 homes on the market, 40 of them on

any given day already have a contract on them. If I

remember my first economics class, increased de-

mand and decreased supply lead to a shortage

situation and the natural outcome of this situation is

rising prices.

It’s too soon to know how much prices have risen but so far this spring I have seen quite a few homes with

prices that I thought were way too high go under contract very quickly. According to the latest FHFA.gov price appreciation report, prices in Boulder County had risen 2.08% for the year ending December 31, 2012. Anecdo-

tally, I have seen some homes in some areas sell at levels approximately 15% higher than they would have

been a year ago. We’ll see where the averages fall but it is definitely a sellers market.

Multiple offers are very common on homes that are in good condition and are asking a fair price. There is an

urgency to make decisions and if a house lasts more than a week or two on the market it is most likely over-

priced. A typical scenario right now is where a seller lists their home at a price level that is pushing the mar-

ket (just to see if anyone will bite). They get 15-20 showings during the first week and then when no offers

come in they start chasing the market with price reductions. A good analogy for this situation is a set of

waves hitting a beach. The first wave (of buyers) is the largest and with it brings a frenzy of activity. There are

many showings and buyers quickly decide if the house is worth buying. If that first wave of buyers does not

purchase the house it obviously has missed the mark on price or condition. As the subsequent smaller waves

come in, the house gets more and more ignored as other new listings come on the market. Sellers then re-

duce the price but new buyers to the market see that it has been on the market for 45 days and wonder

what is wrong. The market is good and sellers can get more than they would have a year or two ago, but in

most cases real estate markets go up in small steps, not all at once.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see when supply catches up with demand. The best case scenario would

be a balanced market where buyers have choices and sellers have ample buyers. In order to get there we ei-

ther need to have more listings on the market or the number of buyers will need to drop. Over the past few

years we have experienced the latter so I hope it’s the former.

Kearney Realty is a local boutique real estate firm with the mission to provide the Boulder Valley a high touch, high touch, high touch, high touch,

high tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experience. Each of our full time associates is empowered and engaged to give top

quality service based on impeccable ethics, consistent systems, professional development and cutting edge tools.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2007200720072007 2008200820082008 2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013

Homes on the Market

Boulder County Residential

KearneyRealty.com 3


The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tracks home values in 304 metropolitan areas across the

United States. The top graph shows Boulder County’s appreciation on a quarterly basis compared to the

United States average. The lower graph shows Boulder’s national ranking in appreciation over time. The

main takeaway is that, comparatively we are doing very well.

According to FHFA.gov, median home prices in Boulder County are 2.08% above where they were a year

ago and .59% higher than they were at the end of 2007. The one year appreciation ranks us 59th

among the 304 metropolitan districts..

Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

4th Qtr. 2008

1st Qtr. 2009

2nd Qtr. 2009

3rd Qtr. 2009

4th Qtr. 2009

1st Qtr. 2010

2nd Qtr. 2010

3rd Qtr. 2010

4th Qtr. 2010

1st Qtr. 2011

2nd Qtr. 2011

3rd Qtr. 2011

4th Qtr. 2011

1st Qtr. 2012

2nd Qtr. 2012

3rd Qtr. 2012

4th Qtr. 2012

One Year Appreciation

Source FHFA.gov

Boulder County United States

0

50

100

150

200

250

2nd

Qtr.

2006

3rd

Qtr.

2006

4th

Qtr.

2006

1st

Qtr.

2007

2nd

Qtr.

2007

3rd

Qtr.

2007

4th

Qtr.

2007

1st

Qtr.

2008

2nd

Qtr.

2008

3rd

Qtr.

2008

4th

Qtr.

2008

1st

Qtr.

2009

2nd

Qtr.

2009

3rd

Qtr.

2009

4th

Qtr.

2009

1st

Qtr.

2010

2nd

Qtr.

2010

3rd

Qtr.

2010

4th

Qtr.

2010

1st

Qtr.

2011

2nd

Qtr.

2011

3rd

Qtr.

2011

4th

Qtr.

2011

1st

Qtr.

2012

2nd

Qtr.

2012

3rd

Qtr.

2012

4th

Qtr.

2012

FHFA Ranking Ranking of one year Appreciation

(304 Total Metro Areas)

KearneyRealty.com 4


Total sales were up 19% in the 1st quarter compared to a year ago. Throughout Boulder

County, 68% of all real estate sales during the quarter were single family homes. The pie

graph on the right shows the breakdown of the percentage of properties that closed during the

quarter in each area. 34% of the closings during the quarter took place in Longmont, followed

closely by Boulder at 31%. What is listed as “Plains” is the suburban plains which includes,

Gunbarrel, Niwot, Lyons, the Boulder County side of Erie and all the rural area in between.


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity Boulder County

68%

27%

5%

Boulder County Sales by Type

Residential Attached Other

31%

5%

8%34%

4%

4%

14%

Boulder County Sales by Area

Boulder Louisville Lafayette Longmont

Superior Mountains Plains

KearneyRealty.com 5


The charts on this page of-

fer an interesting view of

the real estate market in

Boulder County.

The top chart shows the

percentage of closings that

occurred in each price

range. There is a data for

four quarters, but usually

the percentages are stable.

What stands out is that this

past quarter 75% of the

sales in the county sell for

less than $500,000. Million

dollar sales occur all the

time but they account for

approximately 4% of our

overall market.

The lower chart shows

prices in Boulder County

over the last five years on

a quarterly basis. Chances

are that your home is worth

just about the same as it

was five years ago. You can

see some recent improve-

ment that I believe will con-

tinue. As a comparison, the

blue line shows the US me-

dian price (lagging one

quarter).


34%

37%

36%

34%

44%

42%

43%

41%

14%

13%

13%

17%

5%

4%

5%

3%

4%

4%

3%

4%

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q4

2007

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate

Median Price

Average Price

US Existing Median Price

KearneyRealty.com 6


Interestingly, sales within the City of Boulder decreased slightly during the first quarter this year

when compared to last year. A major cause for this has been the lack of listing inventory. If

there is nothing to sell, sales will drop. The sales mix in the City of Boulder this quarter is al-

most 52/48 residential and attached. Sales by zip code throughout the city are fairly wide

spread. This past quarter, most of the sales were in 80304 followed closely by 80303.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity City of Boulder

52%

48%

Sales by Type City of Boulder

Residential Attached

18%

20%

23%

26%

13%

City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code

80301 80302 80303 80304 80305

KearneyRealty.com 7


The City of Boulder

has had more homes

sell the luxury quad-

rant than other areas

of the county. 75% of

the sales countywide

were below $500,000,

in Boulder only 58% of

the sales were below

that threshold. Sales

over $1 million were

7% of the market this

past quarter, this is

nearly double the per-

centage of the county.

21% of the sales in

the city were below

$250,000. This is much

lower than he 34%

county wide. Those

sales are picked up in

the $500 - $750k

category which is 27%

in the city and just

17% in the county.

The lower chart shows

prices in the City of

Boulder over the past

five years. Again, prices

have not moved much

over the past five

years. The median

price for the third

quarter in Boulder for

all residential proper-

ties sold was $435,000.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

21%

25%

25%

21%

42%

39%

37%

37%

21%

21%

22%

27%

9%

6%

10%

7%

6%

8%

6%

7%

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

City of Boulder Price Trends

Median Price Average Price County Median

KearneyRealty.com 8


East county includes sales in Erie, Lafayette, Louisville and Superior. The top graph shows that

sales have been relatively stable over the past five years. A vast majority of the sales in east

county are single family homes. Just 20% of sales were condos or townhomes. The pie chart

on the right shows where the sales are taking place. There is a good mix between these towns

but the town that had the most sales in the first quarter was Erie.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity East County Communities

80%

20%

Sales by Type East County Communities

Residential Attached

18%

27%

16%

39%

East County Sales by Area

Louisville Lafayette Superior Erie

KearneyRealty.com 9


The median price for

sales in Erie, Lafayette,

Louisville and Superior

during the third quarter

was $344,900. A vast

majority of the sales in

this area are in the

$250 - $500k range.

There are very few

sales above $750,000

(just 8 sales or 3%).

Unlike other areas in

Boulder County, prices

have shown some in-

creases over the past

five years. Not much

but the trend is posi-

tive.

There is a lack of in-

ventory in many of the

markets in east county.

The mix of proximity,

lifestyle and median

price had made these

communities very

popular with buyers.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

25%

27%

25%

23%

63%

59%

59%

61%

11%

11%

15%

13%

2%

2%

1%

3%

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

East County - Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Price Trend in East Boulder County

Median Price Average Price County Median Price

KearneyRealty.com 10


Gunbarrel is an area just northeast of Boulder. It is comprised of properties both within the City

of Boulder and others which are in Boulder County. However, there was a huge increase (62%)

in sales during the first quarter this year compared to last year. This past quarter 55% of the

sales in Gunbarrel were single family homes and the balance were condos and townhomes.

Many quarters it is nearer to 50/50. There were 47 sales in Gunbarrel during the most recent

quarter.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Gunbarrel

Residential55%

Attached45%

Sales by Type Gunbarrel




all sales in Gunbarrel


was $365,000. Most of

the sales in Gunbarrel

close for $500,000 or

less. There have been

8 sales in Gunbarrel

over $750,000 during

the past quarter. This

is 17% of the market

and showed good im-

provement over recent

quarters.

The sample size for

Gunbarrel is smaller

than the other areas

we look at. Therefore,

the prices reflected in

the graph below are

more variable. It is in-

teresting to see the

one downward spike in

median price took

place during the stimu-

lus package that en-

couraged lower priced

sales. During that

quarter back in 2009

60% of the sales were

condo’s and town-

homes. Currently

prices are heading up.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

34%

33%

36%

34%

52%

59%

54%

49%

13%

6%

8%

15%

0%

0%

2%

0%

1%

2%

0%

2%

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Gunbarrel Percent of Sales by Price Range

0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Price Trend in Gunbarrel

Median Price

Average Price

Boulder County Median



Sales in Longmont surged during the first quarter of 2013. Overall there was a 38% jump from

the first quarter of 2012. As a community, Longmont had more sales during this most recent

quarter than any other community in Boulder County. Roughly 82% of the sales in Longmont

are single family homes. Sales are usually evenly spread throughout the city but this past quar-

ter 44% of sales were in central Longmont in area code 80501.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont

Residential82%

Attached18%

Sales by Type Longmont

44%

24%

32%

Sales by Zip Code - Longmont

80501 80503 80504




all sales in Longmont


was $233,000. Nearly

all of the sales in

Longmont close for

$500,000 or less.

There have only been

eight sales over

$750,000 over the past

four quarters.

The median and aver-

age prices in Longmont

are lower than the

county average. The

majority of homes in

Longmont are in the

$150,000 to $300,000

range. This past quar-

ter the average price

of a home that sold in

Longmont was

$258,874. The aver-

age price for all

homes sold in Boulder

County was $403,476.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

63%

63%

63%

60%

34%

34%

34%

40%

2%

3%

2%

0%

1%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Longmont Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Price Trend in Longmont

Median Price Average Price Boulder County



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

January March May July September November

Boulder County Sales by Month

Single Family and Condos

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000


Boulder County Median PriceSingle Family and Condos

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


2007200720072007 2008200820082008 2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013

Homes on the Market

Boulder County Residential

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

January March May July September November

Boulder County - Percentage of Single Family Listings Under Contract

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Boulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real Estate

New Listings New Listings New Listings New Listings ---- WeeklyWeeklyWeeklyWeekly

2011

2010

2012

2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Ax

is T

itle

Weekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under Contract

2010

2011

2012

2013

The charts on this page show activity on a weekly basis. The top chart shows new listings coming on

the market and the purple line (2013) shows the trend in lower inventory. The lower chart shows the

number of homes that have gone under contract on a weekly basis. This shows gross numbers not per-

centage increases. The combination of these two graphs demonstrate the shortage in the market.



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Sa

les

Boulder County Real Estate

Number Sold - Weekly

2010

2011

2012

2013

Overall sales are up 16% but this shows the data on a weekly basis.



Seven Reasons To Be Optimistic About Real Estate in 2013

1 The media is starting to report how great the real estate market is. Confi-

dence is growing.

2 Interest rates are still very low.

3 Prices are just starting to rise.

4 Affordability is very high. Meaning the purchasing power is very strong.

5 The local economy is showing strength. As a state we are gaining jobs.

6 Low inventory – this puts pressure on prices and creates a sellers market. 7 Tight rental market- good for real estate investors; bad for renters. Forces

renters who are looking for stability and more affordability into the buying

market.

Kearney Realty - Our Core Values

1. Integrity and Class – Keeping our word; knowing what’s right and

doing what’s right.

2. Selfless Service – Exceeding expectations by focusing on excep-

tional service.

3. Caring - All of our relationships are based on mutual respect, co-

operation and consideration.

4. Connected - Give back to the profession and the community. 5%

of company profits are donated to local charities.

5. Innovation – Continually striving to find new and better ways to

serve our customers and associates.

new the kearney reportreport · 2013. 4. 18. · 1st qtr. 2012 2nd qtr. 2012 3rd qtr. 2012 4th qtr....

Documents