new the kearney reportreport · 2012. 10. 10. · i’m happy to report that the cycle has shifted...

The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport

Boulder County Real Estate

3rd Quarter 2012

NeilKearney.com

NeilKearney.com


Marked ImprovementMarked ImprovementMarked ImprovementMarked Improvement

Over the last five years we have had much to talk about on the real estate front but not

much of it has been positive. We have been on a track of declining sales and slightly declin-

ing prices all under a shadow economic uncertainty. I’m happy to report that the cycle has

shifted and we are again seeing improvement in our local real estate market.

Housing sales in 2011 were the lowest in over a decade. So far 2012 has been a bounce-

back year; sales are up 25%. Each month in 2012 has been marked by increased sales as

compared to the same month the previous year. Even more important we are back to sales

levels that we last saw in 2008. Starting in February and continuing through the third quarter,

activity in the market has been consistently strong.

The one measure that is holding back the

market currently is the number of listings

on the market. At the end of the third

quarter the number of active residential list-

ings on the market was down 16% from a

year ago. Even more impressive, the num-

ber of listings is down 26% from September

30, 2007. So comparing this year to last;

we have sold 25% more homes this year

but our inventory is down 16%. Simple

economics would tell you that there is a

shortage. The measure of this shortage

can be seen in the under contract percent-

age. As you can see from the graph to the left, for most of the year we have had a very

high percentage of our listed homes under contract at any given time. To translate, at the

peak in June 43% of the homes that had a for sale sign already had a buyer contract on it.

In an environment that has 16% fewer listings on the market it is like a person breathing

through a straw while hiking up a mountain. The bottom line is we need more listings.

In other news, interest rates keep defying gravity. As I write this 30 year fixed rates are hov-

ering around 3.25%. If you are going to be in your house for four years or more it may be

worth refinancing (again!). If you plan to move in the next four years it may be worthwhile to

consider moving up your timetable. Locking in a low interest rate can pay huge dividends

over time. Over 15 years a 1.5% rate difference on a $400,000 loan can mean savings of

over $60,000.

Over the remainder of this report I will report various measures of the market along

with my commentary. The Kearney Report is published quarterly. If you would like to

share this valuable information with a friend we’d be happy to send one out to them

or they can view it at www.KearneyRealty.com. Enjoy and have a wonderful fall.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

January March May July September November

Boulder County - Percentage of Single Family Listings Under Contract

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Kearney Realty is a local boutique real estate firm with the mission to provide the Boulder Valley a high touch, high touch, high touch, high touch,

high tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experience. Each of our full time associates is empowered and engaged to give top

quality service based on impeccable ethics, consistent systems, professional development and cutting edge tools.

NeilKearney.com


The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tracks home values in 304 metropolitan areas across the

United States. The top graph shows Boulder County’s appreciation on a quarterly basis compared to the

United States average. The lower graph shows Boulder’s national ranking in appreciation over time. The

main takeaway is that, comparatively we are doing very well.

According to FHFA.gov, median home prices in Boulder County are .07% above where they were in 2007.

Prices have not done much over the past five years. Over the past year our prices have appreciated

1.47%, this ranks us 53rd (out of 304 markets) nationally in price appreciation.

Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County

0

50

100

150

200

250

2nd

Qtr.

2006

3rd

Qtr.

2006

4th

Qtr.

2006

1st

Qtr.

2007

2nd

Qtr.

2007

3rd

Qtr.

2007

4th

Qtr.

2007

1st

Qtr.

2008

2nd

Qtr.

2008

3rd

Qtr.

2008

4th

Qtr.

2008

1st

Qtr.

2009

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Qtr.

2009

3rd

Qtr.

2009

4th

Qtr.

2009

1st

Qtr.

2010

2nd

Qtr.

2010

3rd

Qtr.

2010

4th

Qtr.

2010

1st

Qtr.

2011

2nd

Qtr.

2011

3rd

Qtr.

2011

4th

Qtr.

2011

1st

Qtr.

2012

2nd

Qtr.

2012

FHFA Ranking Ranking of one year Appreciation

(304 Total Metro Areas)

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

2nd Qtr. 2008

3rd Qtr. 2008

4th Qtr. 2008

1st Qtr. 2009

2nd Qtr. 2009

3rd Qtr. 2009

4th Qtr. 2009

1st Qtr. 2010

2nd Qtr. 2010

3rd Qtr. 2010

4th Qtr. 2010

1st Qtr. 2011

2nd Qtr. 2011

3rd Qtr. 2011

4th Qtr. 2011

1st Qtr. 2012

2nd Qtr. 2012

One Year Appreciation

Source FHFA.gov

Boulder County United States

NeilKearney.com


Total sales were up 16.5% in the 3rd quarter compared to a year ago. Sales are up approxi-

mately 22% for the year. Throughout Boulder County, 70% of all real estate sales during the

quarter were single family homes. The pie graph on the right shows the breakdown of the per-

centage of properties that closed during the quarter in each area. 30% of the closings take

place in Boulder, followed closely by Longmont at 28%. Louisville is a strong market but only

7% of all closings occurred there.


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1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Q3

2007

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Q1

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2011

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2011

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2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity Boulder County

70%

27%

3%

Boulder County Sales by Type

Residential Attached Other

31%

7%

10%

28%

4%

6%

14%

Boulder County Sales by Area

Boulder Louisville Lafayette Longmont

Superior Mountains Plains

NeilKearney.com


The charts on this page of-

fer an interesting view of

the real estate market in

Boulder County.

The top chart shows the

percentage of closings that

occurred in each price

range. There is a data for

four quarters but usually

the percentages are stable.

What stands out is that ap-

proximately 80% of the

sales in the county close

for less than $500,000. Mil-

lion dollar sales occur all

the time but they are a

very small part of our over-

all market.

The lower chart shows

prices in Boulder County

over the last five years on

a quarterly basis. Chances

are that your home is worth

just about the same as it

was five years ago. As a

comparison, the blue line

shows the US median price

(lagging one quarter).


$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2007

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

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2010

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2010

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2010

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2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate

Median Price

Average Price

US Median Price

40%

38%

34%

37%

42%

39%

44%

42%

11%

13%

14%

13%

3%

5%

5%

4%

4%

5%

4%

4%

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

NeilKearney.com


The slope on the trend line on the total sales chart is flattening out. At one point sales were

down over 30% from the 2004 peak in sales but at last check we are only down 19%. The

market is recovering and we are gaining ground. The sales mix in the City of Boulder this quar-

ter is almost 50/50 residential and attached. Sales by zip code throughout the city are fairly

wide spread. This past quarter, most of the sales were in 80304 which is in the NW quadrant

of the city.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q3

2007

Q4

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2011

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2011

Q1

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2012

Q3

2012

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity City of Boulder

49%

51%

Sales by Type City of Boulder

Residential Attached

13%

17%

22%

32%

16%

City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code

80301 80302 80303 80304 80305

NeilKearney.com


The City of Boulder

has more homes sell

in the luxury quadrant

than other parts of the

county. Nearly 80% of

the sales countywide

were below $500,000,

in Boulder only 64% of

the sales were below

that threshold. Sales

over $1 million were

8% of the market this

past quarter, this is

double the percentage

of the county. 25% of

the sales in the city

were below $250,000.

This is much lower

than he 37% county

wide. Those sales are

picked up in the $500

- $750k category which

is 21% in the city and

just 13% in the county.

The lower chart shows

prices in the City of

Boulder over the past

five years. Again, prices

have not moved much

over the past five

years. The median

price for the third

quarter in Boulder for

all residential proper-

ties sold was $405,000.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2007

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

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2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

City of Boulder Price Trends

Median Price

Average Price

County Median

28%

22%

21%

25%

37%

39%

42%

39%

21%

19%

21%

21%

5%

11%

9%

6%

8%

9%

6%

8%

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

NeilKearney.com


East county includes sales in Erie, Lafayette, Louisville and Superior. The top graph shows that

sales have been relatively stable over the past five years. A vast majority of the sales in east

county are single family homes. Just 19% of sales were condos or townhomes. The pie chart

on the right shows where the sales are taking place. There is a good mix between these towns

but the town that had the most sales in the third quarter was Lafayette.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

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400

500

600

Q3

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2011

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Q3

2012

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity East County Communities

81%

19%

Sales by Type East County Communities

Residential Attached

22%

34%15%

29%

East County Sales by Area

Louisville Lafayette Superior Erie

NeilKearney.com


The median price for

sales in Erie, Lafayette,

Louisville and Superior

during the third quarter

was $325,000. A vast

majority of the sales in

this area are in the

$250 - $500k range.

There are very few

sales above $750,000

(just 12 sales or 3%).

Unlike other areas in

Boulder County, prices

have shown some in-

creases over the past

five years. Not much

but the trend is posi-

tive.

There is a lack of in-

ventory in many of the

markets in east county.

The mix of proximity,

lifestyle and median

price had made these

communities very

popular with buyers.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Q3

2007

Q4

2007

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

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Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Price Trend in East Boulder County

Median Price

Average Price

County Median Price

32%

33%

25%

27%

58%

54%

63%

59%

8%

10%

11%

11%

1%

1%

2%

2%

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

NeilKearney.com


Gunbarrel is an area just northeast of Boulder. It is comprised of properties both within the City

of Boulder and others which are in Boulder County. The sales decline over the past five years

have been more steep than in other areas of the county. This past quarter 63% of the sales

in Gunbarrel were single family homes and the balance were condos and townhomes. Many

quarters it is nearer to 50/50.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

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30

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70

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90

100

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Q3

2012

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Gunbarrel

Residential63%

Attached37%

Sales by Type Gunbarrel

NeilKearney.com



all sales in Gunbarrel


was $311,500. Most of

the sales in Gunbarrel

close for $500,000 or

less. It is interesting

that there has only

been three sales over

$750,000 over the past

year.

The sample size for

Gunbarrel is smaller

than the other areas

we look at. Therefore,

the prices reflected in

the graph below are

more variable. It is in-

teresting to see the

one downward spike in

median price took

place during the stimu-

lus package that en-

couraged lower priced

sales. During that

quarter back in 2009

60% of the sales were

condo’s and town-

homes.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

29%

14%

34%

33%

57%

72%

52%

59%

14%

10%

13%

6%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

3%

1%

2%

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Gunbarrel Percent of Sales by Price Range

0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q3

2007

Q4

2007

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

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2009

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2009

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2010

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2010

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2010

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2010

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2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Price Trend in East Boulder County

Median Price

Average Price

Boulder County Median

NeilKearney.com


Sales in Longmont are down roughly 15% from 2007. Longmont, as a community is the second

largest community for sales in Boulder County. Roughly 80% of the sales in Longmont are sin-

gle family homes. Sales are spread evenly throughout the city.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

0

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100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

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Q3

2012

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont

Residential81%

Attached19%

Sales by Type Longmont

38%

28%

34%

Sales by Zip Code - Longmont

80501 80503 80504

NeilKearney.com



all sales in Longmont


was $222,500. Nearly

all of the sales in

Longmont close for

$500,000 or less.

There have only been

eight sales over

$750,000 over the four

quarters.

The median and aver-

age prices in Longmont

are lower than the

county average. Prices

have been improving

over the past two

quarters in Longmont.

Median prices are just

about the same as

they were five years

ago.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

69%

70%

63%

63%

28%

28%

34%

34%

1%

2%

2%

3%

0%

0%

1%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Longmont Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

Q3

2007

Q4

2007

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

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2008

Q1

2009

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2009

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2009

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2009

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2010

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2010

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2010

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2010

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2011

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2011

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2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Price Trend in Longmont

Median Price

Average Price

Boulder County

NeilKearney.com


The Big Five 1 People want to live here!! 2 Low foreclosure rate. We don’t need to wade through tons of short sales and REO sales in

order to start moving forward. 3 Our area has a strong economy with a young motivated work force who want to stay in

Colorado. 4 Low inventory – new building started slowing in 2003 not in 2007 or 2008. There is not a

stockpile of homes to sell. We are short of listings which means the next step is most

likely a rise in prices. 5 Low interest rates - take advantage of historically low interest rates by refinancing or buying

a new home or investment property. If you have been putting off a move because you haven’t felt that it was the “right” time. It

may be time to reevaluate your situation. If you are concerned because you have a house to

sell check out the article on this subject at www.NeilKearney.com/advice-for-buyers/.

My Business Principles The foundation of my business is serving my clients. To me, being client focused means doing

the things which build a long term relationship based upon respect, honesty and trust. By pro-viding sound advice based upon broad experience and deep expertise, I’m able to provide a

solid framework from which my clients feel empowered to make smart decisions.

I have a long term focus. I know that if I consistently give great service, filled with integrity, I

will attract abundance in all aspects of life. I believe this is best demonstrated by the small

things done on a daily basis. I like to think of it as The Golden Rule +. I do what someone

would expect plus a bit more.

My approach can be described with the following words: friendly, high energy, no pressure, prompt, prepared and continual improvement. I like to win and succeed, but I think how I win is

more important than winning itself. I have been chosen by my peers to chair the Ethics Commit-

tee and I strive to uphold the high honor of that duty. I am a second generation REALTOR®

and Boulder native. I hope you will consider me first when you are considering buying or selling

a home. I look forward to serving you!

new the kearney reportreport · 2012. 10. 10. · i’m happy to report that the cycle has shifted...

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