the impacts of economic and policy change on homelessness in the 4 uk nations

9th European Research Conference

Homelessness in Times of Crisis

Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014

The Impacts of Economic and

Policy Change in the 4 UK Nations

Beth Watts & Suzanne Fitzpatrick

I-SPHERE, Heriot Watt University, Edinburgh




The Homelessness Monitor

Independent analysis of the impact on homelessness of

economic and policy developments

UK-wide five year study: England (2011-2015); Scotland

and Wales (2012-2015); NI (2013-2015)

Funded by Crisis + Joseph Rowntree Foundation

Four homeless groups: a) rough sleepers; b) ‘single’ homeless people; c) ‘statutory’ homeless households; d)

‘hidden’ homeless households




Methods

1) Review of literature (theoretical, historical and

comparative), legal and policy documents

2) ‘Key informant’ interviews with representatives of local

authorities, service providers, central Government,

national voluntary organisations, etc.

3) Statistical analysis on a) economic and social trends,

particularly post-2007; and b) trends in the four

homeless groups (data availability is variable across the

UK nations)




The recession:

unemployment and welfare

Unemployment can impact on homelessness directly

(mortgage/rent arrears) or indirectly (strain on social

relationships; exacerbate support needs)

Lagged and diffuse effect; much depends on extent to

which welfare system ‘breaks the link’

Welfare cuts likely to be more important than recession

in and of itself – esp cuts in housing allowances for

private + social tenants, but also ‘sanctions’/restricted

eligibility for/reductions in income maintenance benefits




The recession:

housing markets

More direct impact on homelessness than labour market trends

Last major housing recession reduced statutory homelessness because eased access to housing (frustrated ‘entry’ into independent housing most important driver of (statutory) homelessness)

Benign effect less likely this time – mortgage restrictions + fewer social lettings + pressure on (much expanded) PRS (and housing allowance reductions affect access)




Housing and homelessness

policies Housing interventions = ‘saving grace’ that mitigates impact

of cash poverty in UK?

HB + social housing + statutory homelessness safety net

In England - 80% market rents + fixed-term tenancies +

local restriction of eligibility + discharge of statutory

homelessness duty into private tenancies = weakening of

social housing’s safety net function

In Scotland, Wales and NI – policy direction on

housing/homelessness broadly speaking more protective,

especially in Scotland; housing pressures less acute, though

intensifying




England

Rough sleeping and statutory homelessness rising 2010-

2013, but now statutory homelessness declining slightly –

policy change with more rigorous implementation of ‘Housing

Options’; data no longer meaningful?

‘Hidden’forms of homelessness on longer-term rising trend;

e.g. sharp increase in overcrowding 2001-2011

Housing market pressures + variable impact of welfare reform

= North/South divide; London v rest

Ending of private tenancies now much more important as

cause of homelessness, esp in London

Very little to do with mortgage arrears/repossessions




Scotland

2012 commitment (to abolish ‘priority need’) = rise in

statutory homelessness + temporary accommodation

from early 2000s

Introduction of ‘Housing Options’ = sharp decline in

recorded levels of statutory homelessness from 2010

(same happened in England, from 2003-2010); concerns

about LA ‘gatekeeping’ and lawfulness (as in England)




Wales

Much patchier set of responses to homelessness in Wales than in England or Scotland

Has tended to follow similar statistical pattern to England in terms of statutory homelessness, but less extreme

Welsh Housing Act - greater emphasis on prevention, though less ambitious than White Paper proposals; likely to mark a significant change in direction in Wales, and much more divergence from England




Northern Ireland

Very different context – extreme boom and bust in the

housing market; less development of homelessness

policies post devolution; no ‘Housing Options’ yet

Levels of statutory homelessness stable (and high); % of

social housing lets to ‘homeless’ households stands at

79%; but different administrative traditions means not

comparable to other part of UK

Time of enormous flux – huge structural and policy

change, including on homelessness and housing

management/allocations; may introduce Scottish-style

‘Housing Options’




Conclusions

The economic ‘crisis’ not key to homelessness patterns

in the UK – not primarily driven up by growing

unemployment; mortgage arrears/repossessions only

minor contributor; so too rent arrears, though this may

start to change

Much more important are: a) long-run housing market

pressures (e.g. London v rest; long-term rise in hidden

homelessness), b) welfare reform (e.g. ending of private

tenancies; poorer households being ‘exported’ out of

London; benefit sanctions); c) housing/homelessness

policies (different patterns in each of 4 UK nations)




Conclusions

So a rise in homelessness is not inevitable in a time of

economic crisis, at least not in UK

It is consequent on deliberate policy choices

Different choices in different nations of the UK – not only

on housing/homelessness, but also on ‘mitigating’ the

impacts of welfare reform – have had demonstrably

different results

the impacts of economic and policy change on homelessness in the 4 uk nations

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