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    The homelessness monitor: England 2019 Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Hal Pawson, Glen Bramley, Jenny Wood, Beth Watts, Mark Stephens & Janice Blenkinsopp. Institute for Social Policy, Housing and Equalities Research (I-SPHERE), and The Urban Institute, Heriot-Watt University; City Futures Research Centre, University of New South Wales

    May 2019

  • iiiThe homelessness monitor: England 2019

    The homelessness monitor

    The homelessness monitor is a longitudinal study providing an independent analysis of the homelessness impacts of recent economic and policy developments across the United Kingdom. Separate reports are produced for each of the UK nations.

    This eighth annual report updates our account of how homelessness stands in England in 2019, or as close to 2019 as data availability allows. It also highlights emerging trends and forecasts some of the likely future changes, identifying the developments likely to have the most significant impacts on homelessness.

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    The homelessness monitor: England 2019 Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Hal Pawson, Glen Bramley, Jenny Wood, Beth Watts, Mark Stephens & Janice Blenkinsopp. Institute for Social Policy, Housing and Equalities Research (I-SPHERE), and The Urban Institute, Heriot-Watt University; City Futures Research Centre, University of New South Wales

    May 2019

  • The homelessness monitor: England 2019 viv

    About Crisis

    Crisis is the national charity for homeless people. We help people directly out of homelessness, and campaign for the social changes needed to solve it altogether. We know that together we can end homelessness.

    About the authors

    Professor Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Professor Glen Bramley, Dr Beth Watts, Dr Jenny Wood & Dr Janice Blenkinsopp are all based at the Institute for Social Policy, Housing, and Equalities Research (I-SPHERE), and Professor Mark Stephens at The Urban Institute, at Heriot-Watt University. Professor Hal Pawson is based at the City Futures Research Centre, University of New South Wales.

    Acknowledgements

    This report was commissioned by Crisis, and funded by Crisis and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), and our thanks go to Sophie Boobis, Matthew Downie and Dr Francesca Albanese at Crisis, and Aleks Collingwood, Darren Baxter and Chris Goulden at JRF, for all of their support with this work. In addition, we are extremely grateful to all of the key informants from the statutory and voluntary sector organisations across England who found time in their busy schedules to help us with this, and to all 167 local authorities who completed the questionnaire. Our thanks also to Katie Colliver for her invaluable assistance with editing and formatting.

    Disclaimer: All views and any errors contained in this report are the responsibility of the authors. The views expressed should not be assumed to be those of Crisis, JRF or of any of the key informants who assisted with this work.

    Crisis head office66 Commercial StreetLondon E1 6LTTel: 0300 636 1967Fax: 0300 636 2012www.crisis.org.uk

    Crisis 2019ISBN 978-1-78519-061-2

    Crisis UK (trading as Crisis). Registered Charity Numbers:E&W1082947, SC040094. Company Number: 4024938

  • The homelessness monitor: England 2019 viivi

    Contents Figures and Tables

    Figures and Tables viiAcronyms xForeword xiExecutive summary xii

    1. Introduction 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Scope of report 11.3 Research methods 21.4 Causation and homelessness 21.5 Structure of report 3

    2. Economic factors that may impact on homelessness 4 in England2.1 Introduction 42.2 The broader economic context 42.3 Housing demand and supply 82.4 Access to home ownership 102.5 Access to private rented housing 142.6 Access to social and affordable rented housing 182.7 Key points 26

    3. Government policies potentially impacting on 27 homelessness in England3.1 Introduction 273.2 Homelessness policies 273.3 Welfare policies 413.4 Key points 54

    4. Homelessness trends in England 574.1 Introduction 574.2 Rough sleeping 574.3 "Core homelessness" 614.4 Statutory homelessness 634.5 Wider forms of potential hidden homelessness 744.6 Key points 80

    5. Conclusions 82Appendix 1 Topic Guide (2018) 87Appendix 2 Local Authority Survey (2018) 89Bibliography 94

    Chapter 2Figure 2.1 Changes in Real Median Annual Earnings, UK 2004-2018. 5Figure 2.2 Net additional dwellings, 2012/13 2017/18. 9Figure 2.3 Homeowner mortgage arrears Q4 2015-Q4 2018 10

    (percentage of balance outstanding)Figure 2.4 Percentage changes in nominal and real house prices, 11 September 2007 December 2018Figure 2.5 House prices as a multiple of earnings, September 2007 13

    and December 2018Figure 2.6 Annual percentage changes in real private rents, 15 2009/10-2017/18Figure 2.7 Private rents as a percentage of household incomes 15Figure 2.8 Private Landlord Possessions 16Figure 2.9 LHA/UC claims for housing assistance in the private rented 17 sector (number)Figure 2.10 Affordable Housing supply and need estimates 19Figure 2.11 Social sector lettings to new tenants (thousands) 20Figure 2.12 "Through their allocations policies and practices, 21

    social landlords in my area (housing associations and, where applicable, LAs) are making every effort to assist in preventing and relieving homelessness" (Respondent reactions to statement)

    Figure 2.13 "Changes in allocation policies applied by housing 23 associations in my area over the past few years have made it more difficult to prevent and relieve homelessness" (Respondent reactions to statement)

    Figure 2.14 "Post-2011 changes in eligibility rules and/or allocation 23 policies applied by my local authority have made it more difficult to prevent and relieve homelessness" (Respondent reactions to statement)

    Figure 2.15 "Affordability/financial capability checks are making it more 24 difficult for homeless households to access social tenancies in my area" (Respondent reactions to statement)

    Figure 2.16 Social landlord possession orders and repossessions 25 (England)

    Chapter 3Table 3.1 Practitioner perceptions on the HRA - percentage 28

    of respondents agreeing with statementTable 3.2 Benefit Cap by English standard region in 2015 and 2018 48

    and percentage of lone parents

  • The homelessness monitor: England 2019 ixviii

    Chapter 4Figure 4.1 Trends in local authority rough sleeper estimates by region, 58

    2004-2018Figure 4.2 London rough sleepers enumerated Q4 2013-2018: 60

    breakdown by nationalityFigure 4.3 London rough sleepers enumerated Q4 2013-2018: 60

    breakdown by assessed statusFigure 4.4 Core Homelessness by Category in England, 2010-17 62Figure 4.5 Perceived change in overall homelessness "expressed 63

    demand" in year to Sept 2018Figure 4.6 Statutory homelessness assessment decisions, 65

    2008/09-2017/18Figure 4.7 Homelessness acceptances, 2008/09-2017/18: trends 65

    at broad region level indexedFigure 4.8 Local authority perceptions regarding changes in the 66

    housing options service caseload profile over the previous year

    Figure 4.9 Change in number of households made homeless due to 68 selected immediate causes, 2008/09-2017/18 indexed

    Figure 4.10 Local authorities use of temporary accommodation for 69 homeless households

    Figure 4.11 Overview of local authority action to assist homeless (and 70 potentially homeless) households, 2009/10-2017/18

    Figure 4.12 Homelessness Reduction Act: statutory homelessness 72 decisions, Q1 2018/19

    Figure 4.13 Proportion of 20-34 year olds living with their parents by 74 selected region, England, 1996-2017

    Figure 4.14 New household formation rates by tenure, England 75 2007-16 (percent of households in each tenure)

    Figure 4.15 Headship rates for 20-29 year olds, selected English 76 Regions 1992-2018

    Figure 4.16 Sharing households in England 1992-2018 (per cent) 78Figure 4.17 Overcrowding by tenure in England 1995-2016 (per cent) 79

    Appendix 2Table 1 Survey response rate 89Table 2 Perceived change in homelessness demand in previous 89

    12 months (% of responding authorities)Table 3 Has the profile of people seeking assistance from your 90

    Housing Options service changed over the past year? (% of responding LAs)

    Table 4 Perceived impact of the HRA on specific groups (% of 90 responding LAs)

    Table 5 Perceived adequacy of New Burdens funding 90Table 6 Familiarity with new rough sleeping strategy guidance 90Table 7 Homelessness significance of migrants in local 91

    authority areaTable 8 LAs where EEA migrants a problem or a major problem: 91

    How easy is it to meaningfully assist this group? (% of LAs)Table 9 Expected homelessness impacts of forthcoming 91

    welfare reformsTable 10 Role of Local Welfare Assistance schemes 92Table 11 There is enough social housing in my area to allow both 92

    people at risk of homelessness and other households who need it to have reasonable access (% of respondents)

    Table 12 "Through their allocations policies and practices, social 92 landlords in my area (local authority, if applicable, and housing associations) are making every effort to assist in preventing and relieving homelessness" (Respondent reactions to statement)

    Table 13 "Changes in allocation policies applied by housing 93 associations in my area over the past few years have made it more difficult to prevent and relieve homelessness" (Respondent reactions to statement)

    Table 14 Post-2011 changes in eligibility rules and/or allocation 93 policies applied by my local authority have made it more difficult to prevent and relieve homelessness (Respondent reacti