the global water and food crisis
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Presentation at Agua2009, November 2009 in Cali, Colombia. Simon CookTRANSCRIPT
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The global water and food crisis
Global picture of water and development
Simon Cook, Tassilo Tiemann & Myles Fisher
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Outline
• Crisis…
• …behind every crisis is a situation
– more people, more demand, same resources
• The detail in ten river basins• The detail in ten river basins
– 4 water related reasons for poverty
• Some impacts of climate change (very brief)
• Conclusions
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Crisis
INDIA NEWS CTOBER 1, 2009
India's Drought Worst Since 1972
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India: Drought affects 100s of millons
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India: Floods displace a million
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Africa: Drought hits region
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Southern Africa:
Floods (again)
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Yellow River:
China’s sorrow
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Mekong: Conflict over hydropower
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Ganges: 500 million facing disaster
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Brazil: Conflict over water use
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Venezuela: Uncertain supply
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Andes: Conflict , shrinking supply
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Behind every crisis is a Situation
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Population increasing
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Food & water demand growing
• Food crisis • Water crisis
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…Water availability diminishing Reducing per capita availability of water
10
12
14
16
Africa
‘000 m3
0
2
4
6
8
10
1960 1990 2025
World
Asia
MENA
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Details from river basins
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Conditions of water and food systems analyzed in 10 basins
Niger
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Research planWater availability
How much water flows through basins?
Who uses it?
+Water use
How well is water used?
Water productivity of crops, livestock, fish…(kg/m3
Institutions
(who supports / controls /obstructs improvement?(who supports / controls /obstructs improvement?
What are the impacts on livelihoods?
How are water, food and poverty linked?
Potential interventions
Change processes
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Livelihoods influenced by 4 water-related factors
1. Availability / ScarcityHow much water is there?
2. AccessWho gets water?
How is it shared?How is it shared?
3. Hazard:Are people hit by water-related problems?
Floods, droughts, disease
4. Use and abuseHow well do people convert water into benefit?
Do they damage the resource?
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1 Water scarcity
• More people = greater
scarcity per capita
• Pressure points emerging
– Indus
– Yellow
– Limpopo
• But no simple relationship
between availability and
poverty
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Water availability is one poverty factor…of many
Drought
Poor
educationPoverty
From Sao Francisco
Torres et al., 2008
Access to
credit
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Conclusions about scarcity:Scarcity: less influential than
we thought
GNI vs Water
40,000
50,000
Per capita income vs. water
availability
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Water availability (m3/cap)
GNI ($/cap PPP)
Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP
World Bank, 2008
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2 Access to waterLocal to international
% of population with
access to safe drinking water.
(From Gleick, 2001)
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Who uses the water?
1.0
Capacity limit
Ganges
Sao Francisco
Nile
2,042 bcmNi
Sa o F r a n c i s c o
6 2 2 b c m
SF
M ekong
1,19 5 bcmM Ganges
1,167 bcmG
ET
(normalised)
Andean0.0
0.5
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Mekong
Sao Francisco
Volta
Yellow River
NileLimpopo
IndusKarkeh
Fish
Livestock
Crops
Yellow
384 bcmYR
Limpopo
229 bcm
L
Woodland / other
K a r kh eh
2 1 , 4 0 2 mcm
K
Grass
Irrigation
Rainfed cropping
Net runoff Rainfall
(normalised)
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Who uses the
water?
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Indus
200 150 100 50 0
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Water use (mcm)
How people develop from water use:
Globally, irrigation supports dense populations….
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
Ganges
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Water use (mcm)
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
Yellow
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Water use (mcm)
Mekong
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
population (millions)
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
Water use (mcm)
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
Relative values better than absolutes
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
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Limpopo
20 15 10 5 0
0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Water use (mcm)
Volta
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Water use (mcm)
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
…but not in Africa (or Latin America)
20 15 10 5 0
population (millions)
20 15 10 5 0
population (millions)
Sao Francisco
20 15 10 5 0
population (millions)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Water use (mcm)
Woodland +
Grass
Irrigated
Rainfed
Nile
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Water use (mcm)
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Sao Francisco basin
2 worlds..haves and have-nots
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Limpopo
These farmers have access to water
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These farmers do not …
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Ganges
• Uncontrolled groundwater use
GW pumps in Indus-
Ganges basin
Photos: Fred PearceMap: Sharma et al, 2009
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Nile
• Egypt needs every
drop [from Ethiopia]
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Mekong In most places this flood would be a
problem…..
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To these people, flood = fish
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Conclusions about access:
• Infrastructure still lacking in many regions: a
service problem
• Widespread problems of water-sharing: A
resource problem resource problem
– local to international scale
• Governance a widespread and difficult issue
– Balancing demands of water - land - development
– Balancing demands of many groups of people
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3 Water-related hazards
• Drought
• Flood
• Disease
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Flood, drought: Global scale hazards
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Volta Malaria
Disease: Malaria Endemicity: 2007
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Conclusions about water-related hazards
• Hazards hit the
poor hardest
• Hazards prevent
critical investment critical investment
to get out of
poverty
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4 Water use & abuse
– Water productivity must improve to meet demand
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Water productivity:In some places responding to demand
0.400
0.600
0.800
Water productivity, kg/m
3
VN, Mekong Delta
Vietnam
VN Central
Highlands
Mac Kirby, 2007
0.000
0.200
0.400
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Water productivity, kg/m
Rice
Laos
CambodiaNE Thailand
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In some places very high Yellow River water productivity(irrigated)
48Ringler & Ximing 2009
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Wprod (rainfed)_
49
Ringler & Ximing 2009
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In most places, water productivity is
VERY low: Africa, Latin America
• Crop water productivity
generally very low (<10% of
potential)
• Reflects lower pressure on • Reflects lower pressure on
land resources
• Livestock, fish important
• Huge potential for
improvement
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Conclusions about water productivity
• Generally very low
– Major potential for
improvement
• Few data on total
Wpr (estimated potential)
YR• Few data on total
benefits and costs
– Multiple uses
– Net productivity VoltaLimpopo
Nile
Niger
IGB
YR
Mekong
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Impact of Climate Change
• On scarcity– Some basins drier, others wetter
– Rainfall patterns changing
• On access (conflict)– Uncertainty makes agreement more difficult – Uncertainty makes agreement more difficult
• Demand for green power
• Flow projections uncertain
• On hazard– Unprecedented events are unpredictable
• On use– Investment of co-factors more difficult
Uncertainty brings MAJOR problems
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Agriculture vs GNI
50,000
• The water and food crisis is really a development crisis
• How does water constrain development?
• How does development pressurise water resources?
Final thoughts
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Agricultural contribution to GDP (%)
Gross National Income ($/capita)
What factors are preventing people
moving “up the slide”?
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Basins differ in their position on a development trajectory%
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n o
f a
gri
cult
ure
to
GD
P
Volta
Niger
Limpopo
World Bank, 2007
% Rural poor
% C
on
trib
uti
on
of
ag
ricu
ltu
re t
o G
DP
Sao
Francisco
Karkheh Mekong
Andes
IGB
YR
Nile
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Agriculture as % of GDP
Niger
Nile
IGB
VoltaAgricultural
Rural poverty
Agriculture as % of GDP
AndesSao Fran
Karkheh Yellow
IGBLimpopo
Mekong
Transitional
Industrial
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…so the major issues vary between basins
Agriculture as % of GDP
Niger
Nile
IGB
Volta
Agriculture only
Extreme poverty
Low WR development (no irrigation)
Complex LLH support
(Livestock and fish may dominate)
Rural poverty
Agriculture as % of GDP
AndesSao Fran
Karkheh Yellow
IGBLimpopo
Mekong
Some sectors moving
Pressure on others
Agriculture ‘left behind?’
Increased vulnerabilityMarkets very active
Rural poor in pockets
Improved potential for
ecosystem services
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Conclusions
• There is a water and food threat– Will cause more crises if not responded to
• Some clearly solvable needs– Better sharing and infrastructure
– Hazard management– Hazard management
– Improved eco-efficiency (water productivity)
• Solutions depend on political processes– Resource sharing
– Use valuation
– Assessment under uncertainty
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Muchas gracias por su amable atencion