The food crisis, water crisis and economic development:

Food scarcityWater scarcity

Poverty

Simon Cook Basin focal projects

Challenge Program on Water and Food

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

My talk…

• Global crisis of food, water and development

• How does this crisis appear in river basins?

• Realities and underlying causes? • Conclusions and policy targets

Niger

We analyze patterns in 10 basins globally

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Why study at a GLOBAL scale?

• To understand drivers of problems– These are not random

• To compare across basins– Solutions often come from outside

• To enable judgments under uncertainty– Sometimes it helps to know why

World food & water crisis

• Food crisis • Water crisis

…World Water Crisis: Declining per capita availability of water

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1960 1990 2025

Africa

WorldAsia

MENA

‘000 m3

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Agriculture vs GNI

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Agricultural contribution to GDP (%)

Gro

ss

Na

tio

na

l In

co

me

($

/ca

pit

a)

• The poorest rely on agriculture – the livelihood base

• Other activities contribute later

Size of bubble proportional to rural

population

Economic development

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Global picture

• Food production must increase• …food production consumes huge volumes

of water • Other demands also increasing • Food & water systems need co-

development to support broad change• …without compromising environmental

flows

What the food & water crisis looks like in river basins

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Limpopo

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Yellow River:

China’s sorrow

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Mekong: Conflict over hydropower

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Ganges

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Andes

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FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Summary of the news from basins

• News tends to report events, not causes– Crises make good headlines of conflict,

catastrophe,

• Longer term stories not so sexy– Success is a slow steady process – Failure of the food and water system a (non

story) of ‘not much happening’

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Looking more closely at factors in basins that influence

development• Water availability• Water use• Water related hazard • Water productivity

Water availabilityless influential than we might think

GNI vs Water

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Water availability (m3/cap)

GN

I ($

/ca

p P

PP

)

Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP

Per capita income vs. water

availability

World Bank, 2008

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Water availability is one poverty factor…of many

From Sao FranciscoTorres et al., 2008

Drought

Poor education

Access tocredit

Poverty

Devaraj de Condappa

VoltaWater use

• Grassland dominates water use

• Rainfed crops >> irrigated

• Runoff generated differentially within basin

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

From Kirby et al., 2009

Nile:Rainfed agriculture by far the biggest user

Grassland 45%

RF crops 27%

Irrigation ~1%

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Indus

200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Water use (mcm)

How people develop from water use:

Globally, irrigation supports dense

populations….

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Yellow

200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Water use (mcm)

Mekong

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

Water use (mcm)

Ganges

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Water use (mcm)

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Relative values better than absolutes

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Limpopo

20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Water use (mcm)

Volta

20 15 10 5 0population (millions)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Water use (mcm)

Sao Francisco

20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Water use (mcm)

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Nile

200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000

Water use (mcm)

…but not in Africa (or Latin America)

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Water related hazard

• Flood• Drought• Disease

If uncontrolled, a major obstacle to investment

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Limpopo

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Eastham 2009 (Preliminary draft)

Drought

Volta

Malaria prevalence

0

100%

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Water productivity

• Benefit per m3 water consumed• Key diagnostic of how much people

gain• Applies to

– irrigated crops– rainfed crops, livestock – fish

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Water productivity must respond faster than demand

crisis

response

WP

time

Demand

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Water productivity: In some places responding to demand

Mac Kirby, 2007

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Wat

er p

rod

uct

ivity

, kg

/m3

Rice

VN, Mekong Delta

Vietnam

VN CentralHighlands

Laos

CambodiaNE Thailand

VoltaGenerally

<<0.2 kg/m3

African basins, Wproductivity low or patchy

Potential= ~2 kg/m3 IRD, 2007

– Limpopo, • generally v. low (a few

high patches)– Volta

• V low but with some patches

– Niger• WPr very low

– Nile, • Large areas of very low

WPr• Extremely high in Delta

(including aquaculture)

Actual water productivity well below potential

• Basins in Asia responding to pressure…

• …most in Africa ‘dormant’

Wpr (potential)

VoltaLimpopo

Nile

Niger

Ganges

Yellow

Mekong

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Agriculture vs GNI

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Agricultural contribution to GDP (%)

Gro

ss

Na

tio

na

l In

co

me

($

/ca

pit

a)

• The water and food crisis is really a development crisis

Final thoughts

What factors are preventing people

moving “up the slide”?

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

4 causes of water-related poverty

• Water scarcity: – A problem but not necessarily the worst

• Lack of access or unequal sharing:– Widespread problem, but less certain effect

• Exposure to hazard:– Drought, flood, water-related diseases

• Low water productivity:– Very widespread– Other factors prevent full benefit

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

4 targets for water-related policy

• Water scarcity: – (not sure what can be done)

• Lack of access or unequal sharing:– Institutions, informed and transparent politics

• Exposure to hazard:– Forecasting, mitigation, risk sharing

• Low water productivity:– Focus on agriculture as the first driver of

change– Institutes to support integrated development

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Thank you