global food crisis
DESCRIPTION
This document describes the current food crises that occurred globally. It is actually useful for Research.TRANSCRIPT
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
Food has been with man since creation. The success of the
day-to-day activities, interaction and lives sustainability is a
reflection of the availability of food. As no referent exist without a
tag or name by which it could be called, so also is the issue of food
significantly embedded in the global nomenclature. Food is any
substance, usually composed of carbohydrates, fats, protein and
water, that can be eaten or drunk by animal or human for nutrition
or pleasure (Kaplan, 2002). Items considered food may be sourced
from plants, animals or other categories such as fungus or
fermented products like alcohol.
Although many human cultures sought food items through
hunting and gathering, today must cultures use farming, ranching
and fishing, with hunting, foraging and playing a minor role. Most
traditions have a recognizable cuisine, a specific set of cooking
traditions, preferences, and practices, the study of which is known
as gastronomy.
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Many cultures study dietary analysis of food habits. While
humans are omnivores, religion and social constructs such as
morality often affects which food they will consume (Fageyinbo,
2006). Food safety is also a concern with food borne illness
claiming many lives each year. In many languages, food is often
used metaphorically as in “food for thought”.
The food crisis has been a major head lines around the
world. Since the beginning of 2008, food prices have increased by
over 65%. Aside from street protest in many parts of the world,
there have also been panicky measures aimed at solving the food
crisis. Whether those measures will ultimately bring about
abundance of food is subject to debate. Everywhere, the price of
food has increased. Retail prices of food is up by 18% in China,
17% in Sir Lanka and 10% or more throughout Latin America and
Russia. In Nigeria, rice epitomizes the magnitude of this crisis as its
prices have doubled since 2004 (Elor, 2008).
Just like most African countries, Nigeria is trying to address
the current crisis. One of the solutions on the table is to import rice
at an increasing rate. In addition, the government plans to disburse
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loans to domestic rive processors at a 4% interest rate with a
repayment period of 15years and a five-years Moratorium. (This
Day, 2008). While this might provide a brief improvement it will not
prevent future shortages or ensure that food is abundant.
Importation of food item used to be promoted and managed
by the Nigerian government leading to large-scale abuse by
officials. This was later terminated primarily to protect local
produces. While it makes economic sense to encourage
importation, not just in time of crisis, it is economic folly that
government should manage it when private individuals could do
better.
Therefore, any attempt made to investigate the impact of the
current food crisis on the Nigerian economy would be a worthwhile
venture and provide an added contribution to the development of
the agricultural sector and the economy as a whole.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Food crisis in the world is a serious problem. Majority of
world countries are affected. Food protest and riots have swept
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more than 20 countries in the past few months, most of which are
Africans. World bank president, Robert Zoellick told a meeting in
Washington that there are 33 countries where price likes could
cause widespread social unrest. The UN world food programme
called the crisis the silent ‘tsunami’ with wheat prices almost
doubling in the past year alone and stocks falling to the lowest
level.
One billion people live on less than $1 a day. Some 850
million are starving. Mean while, world production increased a mere
1 percent in 2006, with increasing amount of output going to
biofuels, performance capita consumption is declining (Robert
Zoellick, 2008). The most commonly stated reasons include rising
fuel costs, global warming, deterioration of soil and increased
demand in China and India. So it is just a case of hard luck and
poor planning (UN, 2007).
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The broad objective of the study is to analyse the impact of
the current food crisis on Nigerian economy: an econometric
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analysis between 1980-2008. However, the specific objectives
include:
1. The determination of the importance of food, world over.
2. Identification of the causes of food crisis globally and Nigeria
in particular.
3. Suggesting ways by which food delivery system in Nigeria
can be improved.
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
This research will answer the following questions which will
serve as a measurement of its validity.
1. Is there any significant relationship between the recent food
crisis and increase in social vices?
2. Is there any significant relationship between increase in
population and upsurge in food prices?
3. Is there any significant relationship between increase in price
of crude oil and in prices of food?
4. Is there any significant relationship between the economic
melt-down and food price surges?
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5. Is there any significant difference between food price hike in
the last 20 years and now?
1.5 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
1. Ho:- There is no significant relationship between the recent
food crisis and increase in social vices.
2. Ho:- There is no significant relationship between increase in
population and upsurge in food prices.
3. Ho:- There is no significant relationship between the
economic meltdown and food price surges.
1.6 METHODOLOGY
A correlation, survey research method would be adopted for
the purpose of investigating the extent to which several variable
such as, economic meltdown, increase in population etc affects the
Nigerian economy.
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1.7 SOURCES OF DATA
Primary data is required for the purpose of the research work
which will be gathered through oral interview.
1.8 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
Food, as a veritable tools in man’s sustainability has
assumed importance and significance ever since creation. The
importance of food in any society cannot be over emphasized.
Nigeria, like any other country needs food in consumable and
commercial quantum for her growth and progress.
World over, there have been food crisis ever since
imperialism really got underway three centuries ago. Perhaps the
most extensive famines in history were presided over by Britain
and India in the 18-20th century. It has merely metamorphosed
overtime, just as has the “one world” movement that imperialism
launched. Back then it was obvious: burn, rape, dispossess,
enslave, create monopolies for trade and production (plantation talk
about “dark Africa”.
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According to food dealers in Lagos, the price of a 25kg bag
of rice imported from Thailand surged by about 30% between
January and late April, 2008 while cassava related product also
registered 20-30% rise in their prices in the same period. The price
like is believed to reduce accessibility of food for needy people to
maintain their lives.
In investigating the impact of food crisis on the Nigerian
economy, a significant amount of strategic actions on the part of
not just the Nigerian government but government around the world
and many large conglomerate that controls access to food is
required.
Therefore, an attempt to conduct an investigation: this area
should be given due and urgent consideration.
1.9 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
This research work is primarily focused on the current food
crisis in three (3) selected states in the south western region of
Nigeria - Ogun, Lagos and Oyo state between 1980-2008.
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1.10 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
The study is of great importance and significance and would
have best been carried out using the entire states of the Federation
as a case study, but for time factor, transportation expenses and
the researcher’s residential area. Specificitly, it has been briefly
narrowed down to three states mentioned earlier- Lagos being the
commercial nerve centre of the country, Ogun being the resident
state of the researcher and Oyo, having Ibadan which is the largest
city in West Africa as its state Capital.
1.11 DEFINITION OF TERMS
Some terms were used and drawn from various sources for
the purpose of this research which may not be clear to further
researchers and readers. These terms include:
1. Food - any substance that can be metabolized by an animal
to give energy and build tissue.
2. Crisis – An unstable situation of extreme danger of difficulty.
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3. Nigeria – A republic in West Africa on the Gulf of Guinea;
gained independence from Britain in 1960, most populous African
country.
4. Economy – the system of production and distribution and
consumption
5. Ogun State – a state in South Western Nigeria. It boarders
Lagos State to the South, Oyo and Osun State to the North, Ondo
State to the east.
6. Lagos State – is an administrative region of Nigeria, located
in the South western part of the country. It shares better with
republic of Benin, Ogun State and Oyo State.
7. Oyo State – an ancient city in Yoruba land located in South
Western Nigeria. Its state capital, Ibadan, is the largest city in West
Africa (Adeojo 1994).
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CHAPTER TWO
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 FOOD AND ITS GLOBAL IMPORTANCE
“We are what we eat” is an old proverb. Our nutritional
status, health, physical and mental faculties depends on the food
we eat and how eat it. Access to good quality food has been man’s
main endeavour from the earliest days of human existence. Food
like art and literature, is a reflection of culture. Historically, peoples
food choices were very limited by their geographical location. The
global food market of today is a result of technological advances in
food preservation and transportation.
Before the industrial revolution of the 19th century, must
people lived and worked on farms. Peoples lives were consumed
with growing, harvesting and preserving food for the writer months.
Wars could destroy crops, bringing famine. Famine in turn can lead
to disease, because of peoples already weakened immune system.
Food is an essential part of life. It is a focal point of celebrations
and holidays. What wedding would be complete without a cake?
How would we celebrate thanksgiving without a turkey? Even at
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funerals there is food, as a source of solace and comfort. Food is
an essential part of life just like air and water (Connoss and
Epstein1996). However, the food we eat represent who we are,
what we believe; and how we live. Food was extremely important in
ancient times. Mostly it was up to individual families to supply their
own food. Sources and history is full of starvation stories. Wars
have been lost or won on the supply of salt or the scarcity of food
(Barner, 2002).
Salt was once co valuable; it was used as money. In Rome
and Venice, salt was part of the Soldier’s weekly pay. It not only
seasoned food, it was an important means of preservation.
Although, slats and some methods were common to most nations,
each dealt with their food supply according to what was available
(Epstein 1996).
Adurale (2008) opines that food is the brain behind every
smiles, the secret of every succulent cheek and face, the master
minder of every battles won, a friend to human skin colour and
paramountly, the man behind the scene for every better interactive
society. Although one can live several weeks without food, we
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(humans) need an adequate amount to stay healthy. Without food
our mental and physical capabilities will deteriorate rapidly, and we
become weak. Food replenishes the substances that our body
burns and provide energy. It provides Vitamins, minerals, salts, and
other elements essential to morale. Therefore, proper nutrition is
essential.
The two basic source of food are plants and animals
(including fish). In varying degrees both provide the calories,
carbohydrates, fats and protein needed for normal daily body
function. Calories are a measure of heat and potential energy.
Calories are a measure of heat and potential energy. The average
person needs 2,000 calories performance day to function at a
minimum level. An adequate amount of carbohydrates, fats and
proteins without an adequate calorie intake will lead to starvation
and cannibalism of body’s own tissue for energy.
Plants food provide carbohydrate the main source of energy.
Many plants provide enough protein to keep the body at normal
efficiency. Although plants may not provide a balanced diet, they
will sustain man even in the aretic, where meat’s heat-producing
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qualities are normally essential. Many plants food such as nuts and
seeds will give you enough protein and oil for normal efficiency.
Roots, green vegetables and plant food containing natural sugar
will provide calories and carbohydrates that give the body natural
energy.
Animal food is more nourishing than plants food. In fact it
may even be more readily available in some places. However, to
get meat, we need to know the habit of, and how to capture the
various wildlife especially those that are more abundant and more
easily sustained such as insects, mollusks, fish and reptiles. These
can satisfy the immediate hunger while preparing traps and snares
for large game.
If there is anything all men have in common with animals,
then it is the necessity for daily food. For rich or poor alike a certain
amount of food is necessary to keep the body in good condition.
Food safety is therefore a basic requirement of food supply.
“Food safety implies absence or acceptable and safe level of
contaminants, adulterants, naturally occurring toxins or any other
substance that may make food injurious to health on an acute or
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chronic basis (Adewale, 2008). Food quality can be considered as
a complex characteristics of food that determines its value or
acceptability to consumers. Besides safety, quality attributes
includes; nutritional value; organoleptic properties such as
appearance colour, texture, taste; and functional properties.
The paradox of widespread food insecurity and malnutrition
in large parts of the world alongside net food surpluses emerging in
recent decades. It is now reaching very worrisome proportions.
2.2 HISTORICAL TREND OF FOOD CRISIS
Since the 1970’s, food production has become increasingly
globalized and concentrated. A handful of countries dominate the
global trade in staple foods. 80% of wheat exports come from sox
exporters as does 85% of rice. Three countries produce 70% of
exported corn. This leaves the world’s poorest countries, the ones
that must import food to survive, at the mercy of economic trends
and policies in few exporting companies. When the global food
trade system stops delivering, it’s the poor who pay the price.
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For several years, the global trade in staple foods has been
heading towards a crisis several related trends have slowed
production and pushed prices up.
In the 1960s and 1970s, in an effort to counter peasant
discontent in Southeast Asia, the US poured money and technical
support into agricultural development in India and other countries.
The “green revolution”- new seeds, fertilizers, pesticides,
agricultural techniques and infrastructure led to spectacular
increases in food production, particularly rice. Yield per hectare
continued expanding until the 1990s. (Cairnes 2006)
Today, it’s not fashionable for government to help poor
people grow food for other poor people because “the market” is
supposed to take care of all probles. The Economist reports that
“spending on farming as a share of total public spending in
developing countries fell by half between 1980 and 2004”.
Subsidies have dried up, and production growth stalled. As a result,
in seven of the past eight years the world consumed more grain
than it produced, which means that rice was being removed from
the inventories that governments and dealers normally hold as
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insurance against bad harvests. World grain stocks are now at their
lowest point ever leaving very little cussion for bad times.
Scientist say that climate change could cut food production in
parts of the world by 50% in the next 12 years. But that isn’t just a
matter for the future:
Australia is normally the world’s second largest exporter of
grain, but a savage multi-year drought has reduced the wheat crop
by 60% and rice production has been completely wiped out.
In Bangladesh in November 2006, one of the strongest
cyclones in decades wiped out a million tones of rice and severely
damaged the wheat crop making the huge country even more
dependent on imported food.
Wheat and barley was grown in the nile valley of Egypt. This
country, because of the hot, dry weather was limited in its
agriculture. Wheat and barley grew well and it was eaten in many
different ways as bread, as soup and porridge until the recent crisis
swept through the land.
Other examples abound. It is clear that the global climate
crisis is already here, and it is has affected the supply of food.
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It is now official policy in the US, Canada and Europe to
convert food into fuel. US vehicles burn enough corn to cover the
entire import needs of the poorest 82 countries. Ethanol and
biodiesel are very heavily subsidize, which mean, inevitably, that
crops like corn (maize) are being diverted out of the food chain and
into gas tanks, and that new agricultural investment worldwide is
being directed towards palm, soya, canola and other oil producing
plants. This increases the prices of agrofuel crops directly and
indirectly boosts the price of other grains by encouraging growers
to switch to agrofuel (UN, 2008). As Canadian hug producers have
found, it had also driven up the cost of producing meat, since corn
is the main ingredient in North American animal feed.
By the end of 2007, reduced investment, in the third world,
rising oil prices and climate change meant that production growth
was slowing and prices were rising. Good harvests and strong
export growth might have staved off a crisis- but that ins’t what
happened. The trigger was rice, the staple food of three billion
people (Robbert Zoellick, 2008).
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Early 2008, India announced that it was suspending most
rice exports in order to rebuild its reserves. A few weeks later,
Vietnam, whose rice crop was hit by a major insect infestation
during the harvest, announced a four-monthly suspension of
exports to ensure that enough would be available for its domestic
market. India and Vietnam together normally account for 30% of all
rice exports, so their announcements were enough to push the
already tight global rice market over the edge. Rice buyers
immediately started buying up available stocks, hoarding whatever
rice they could get in the expectation of future price increases.
By mid April, news reports described “panic buying” of rice
futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, and there were rice
shortages even on Supermarket shelves in Canada and the US.
There have been food price spikes before. Indeed, if we take
inflation into account, global prices for staple foods were higher in
the 1970s than they are today. So why has this inflationary
explosion provoked mass protest around the world? The answer is
that since the 1970s the richest countries in the world, aided by the
international agencies they control, have systematically
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undermined the poorest countries’ ability to feed their populations
and protect themselves in a crisis like this (UN, 2008)
Haiti is a powerful and appalling example. Rice has been
grown in Haiti for centuries, and until twenty years ago Haitan
farmers produced about 170,000 tonnes of rice a year enough to
cover 95% of domestic consumption. Rice farmers received no
government subsidies, but, as in every other rice – producing
country at the time, their access to local markets was protected by
import tariffs (Micky, 2008).
In 1995, as a condition of providing a desperately needed
loan, the international monetary fund required Haiti to cut its tariff
on imported rice from 35% to 3%, the lowest in the Caribbean. The
result was a massive influx of US rice that sold for half the price of
Haitan-grown rice. Thousand of rice farmers lost their lands and
livelihoods and today, three quarters o the rice eaten in Haiti comes
from the U.S. US rice didn’t take over the Haitan market because it
tastes better, or because US rice growers are more efficient.
The trend of the global food crisis had been for decades, with
the rich countries imposing liberalization “policies on poor and debt-
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ridden countries and then taking advantage of that liberalization to
capture the market. Government subsidies account for 30% of farm
revenue in the world’s 30 richest countries, a total of $280 billion a
year, an unbeatable advantage in a “free” market where the rich
rules (Micky, 2008).
The global food trade game is rigged, and the poor have
been left with reduced crops and no population. In addition for
several decades the world bank and international monetary und
have refused to advance loans to poor countries unless they agree
to “Structural Adjustment Programs” (SAP) that require the loan
recipient to devalue their currencies, cut taxes, privatize utilities
and reduce or eliminate support programmes for farmers. All these
was done with the promise that the market would produce
economic growth and prosperity- instead, poverty increased and
support for agriculture was eliminated.
The food price surges of recent years have created much
misery and raise once again the Mathusian spector. Increase in
demand for food in emerging economies, particularly China and
India, have frequently been identified as the dominant factor behind
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a perceived shock on the demand side. Use of crops for benefits
was listed as an additional, though less important factor. Yet global
cereals utilization without biofuels has been growing slowly at
decelerating rates, as in the past. It is the addition of biofuels that
has resulted in its growing faster than in the past. In parallel, global
production has been falling behind utilization for several years,
leading to declining stocks. Weather shocks, depreciation of the
dollar, and turbulence in the financial markets were added to these
fundamentals of the supply-demand balance to generate price
surges.
Victor Mallet (2007) argues in the financial daily that the
world wide food crisis is not due to a lack of supply-for the time
being-but rather to interruptions in free trade. “The immediate
cause of this crisis is not perhaps surprisingly- a shortage of food.
The problem is the sudden reluctance of traditional exporters to sell
their surpluses. As with credit providers in the seized-up credit
markets, each producer is hoarding its own supply in case of hard
times at home, because it suspects trading partners will do the
same. Trust in the efficiency and liquidity market has collapsed.
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Farm protectionism is not new. International farm trade has
nevertheless managed to satisfactorily for decades redistribute
surpluses of stable foods. The current seizures in the market are
therefore a cause for general alarm”.
Gerd Appenzeller (2008), opines that the Western world is
protecting its prosperity at the cost of less developed countries. “To
put it simply, the accusation directed in particular at the US,
Canada, Australia and Western Europe is that these States- the
richest in the world – are treating the rest of the planet like
colonies. By imposing their supposedly superior economic and
agrarian system on the Third World-albeit with the best intentions-
and exploiting their economic power, the industrialized nations are
running these countries there are plenty of straight forward
examples. The European Union is subsidizing the construction of
increasingly large fishing fleets and purchasing all the fishing rights
for Africa’s coasts. As a result, Portuguese and Spanish travelers
are taking over the traditional fishing ground of, for example the
Senegalese, so the latter, totally impoverished, are faced to sail the
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coasts of the canary island on dilapidated fishing beats in hope of
finding better future there”.
2.3 TREND OF FOOD CRISIS IN NIGERIA
With the exception of clothing and shelter as the basic
necessities of life, food remains the most vital because of its
centrality to human existence. It is a known fact that the ruthless
expedition for food has shaped human history, provoking wars,
driving migration and underpinning the growth of nations. In
Nigeria, the recent escalation of food prices call for sober reflection
owing to the fact that the globe is facing a worsening food crisis
period unseen in the last30 years and the potential of leading o
catastrophe.
Shortly over time, there has been discernible trend across
the region as a whole. Despite the strong growth in food
production, sub-Saharan Africa in the only region where the
number of hungry has risen in the last decade. The trend of food
crisis in Nigeria and Africa can be linked to inappropriate
agricultural policies that have stifled the continent’s great
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agricultural potential. Over the years nothing has been done to
address how yields-on the contrary, it seems as though
government has gone out of its way to stifle production. Agricultural
policies were enormous right form the conception and most were
ad-hoc in nature.
The appraisal of the part shows that successive
administration had initiated programmes towards ensuring that food
is available, accessible and adequate for the teaming population.
Unfortunately, the sustenance of these laudable ideas to fulfill their
mandates has remained a dream. Some of these programmes are ;
farm settlement scheme and National Accelerated Food Production
Programme (NAFPP), launched in 1972 by Gen. Yakubu Gowon;
Operation Feed The Nation introduced by the Muritala/Obasanjo
administration; River Basin and Rural Development Authority
established in 1976; Green Revolution and the World bank founded
Agricultural Development Project (ADP) launched by the
administration of Shehu Shagari in 1980; and Babangida’s
Directorate for Food, Road and Rural Infrastructure (DFRRI).
Despite the efforts, agriculture has been constrained by numerous
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challenges like rural-urban migration, wavering policies formulation
and implement insufficient infrastructure support; poor input
distribution system; emphasis on oil economy; pricing system; over
dependence on rain-fed farming; poor capacity utilization,
investor’s confidence; environmental degradation; poor access to
funds; poor socioeconomic status of farmers and insufficient
technological transfer system, corruption and poor commitment to
implementation of agricultural policies (Samaila 2009)
In the history of Nigeria, the upsurge of food prices had not
been this persistent. As food prices had not been made to
understand, the problem in global in nature. It is caused by the
diversion of some of these food crops by Western countries for the
making of biofuels, ethanoland the rest”. By trying to protect the
local rice growers, the government has shielded them from
competition. Farmers have not had the incentive to improve the
quality of their crops, nor crops yields. This in turn breeds low
production. Government duties and other levies starve poor people
to death- they drive up the cost of food needlessly (Ruma, 2009).
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Customers duty on rice imports in Nigeria is at 55 %
including a 5 % levy for increasing local production. In neighbouring
Benin, rice merely attracts a huge 35% duty. In monetary terms this
represents a whopping US $200 per ton price advantage over
imports through Nigerian ports (Ruma, 2008). Over the years,
corruption have affected the distribution of ferterlizers which have
increase the country’s vulnerability to food crisis. To make things
worse, import tariffs have put fertilizer out of many people’s reach
leading to low yield and hard manual labour. The present mode of
fertilizer distribution is cumbersome and manipulatable, as sizeable
amounts of fertilizer end up in the hands of politician and then
colonies who rake in profits at the expense of farmers. Meanwhile,
efforts to embrace biotechnology to improve yields have been
thwarted by well fed groups of, largely western, activist whether
other are hungry seems to be of importance to them.
Nigeria at different times has banned the importation of
various staples including wheat, rice, maize and vegetable oil.
Such restriction may indeed protect local industry for a short time,
but it punishes consumers immediately and discourages production
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in the long run. Protection from competition and innovation allows
local producers to hike up prices on lover quality goods. Relaxing
these restrictive trade practices will increase the availability of food
and a fall in prices. Efforts in the past to get credit through to
farmers have achieved little as moist of the funds were either
mismanaged or ended up in the wrong hands. However, all end up
in the hands of politicians and their colonies who rake in profits at
the expense of farmers. Meanwhile, efforts to embrace
biotechnology to improve yields have been thwarted by well-fed
groups of, largely Western activist; whether others are hungry
seems to be of no importance to them.
Nigeria at different times has banned the importation of
various staples including wheat, rice, maize, and vegetable oil.
Such restrictions may indeed protect local industry for a short time,
but it punishes consumers immediately and discourages production
in the long run. Protectionism from competition and innovation
allows local producers to hike up prices on lower-quantity goods.
Relaxing these restrictive trade practices will increase the
availability of food and a fall in prices. Efforts in the past to get
28
credit through to farmers have achieved little as most of the funds
were either mismanaged or ended up in the wrong hands.
However, all end up in the hands of politicians and their colonies
who rake in profits at the expense of farmers. Meanwhile, efforts to
embrace biotechnology to improve yields have been thwarted by
well-fed groups of, largely Western activist; whether others are
hungry seems to be of no importance to them.
Nigeria at different times has banned the importation of
various staples including wheat, rice, maize, and vegetable oil.
Such restrictions may indeed protect local industry for a short time,
but it punishes consumers immediately and discourages production
in the long run. Protectionism from competition and innovation
allows local producers to hike up prices on lower-quantity goods.
Relaxing these restrictive trade practices will increase the
availability of food and a fall in prices. Efforts in the past to get
credit through to farmers have achieved little as most of the funds
were either mismanaged or ended up in the wrong hands.
However, all end up in the hands of politicians and their colonies
who rake in profits at the expense of farmers. Meanwhile, efforts to
29
embrace biotechnology to improve yields have been thwarted by
well-fed groups of, largely Western activist; whether others are
hungry seems to be of no importance to them.
Nigeria at different times has banned the importation of
various staples including wheat, rice, maize, and vegetable oil.
Such restrictions may indeed protect local industry for a short time,
but it punishes consumers immediately and discourages production
in the long run. Protectionism from competition and innovation
allows local producers to hike up prices on lower-quantity goods.
Relaxing these restrictive trade practices will increase the
availability of food and a fall in prices. Efforts in the past to get
credit through to farmers have achieved little as most of the funds
were either mismanaged or ended up in the wrong hands. This
had aggravated the problem of food availability which in turns
affect both the poor and the rich as it increases the disposable
income and reduces the savings of house hold and firms and
consequently reduces investment.
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2.4 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD CRISIS AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH
It is a relatively old idea that at low income levels there is a
relationship between nutrition and labour productivity. This
hypothesis is known as the Efficiency Wage Hypothesis.
Leibenstein (1957) and later Murlees (1975) and Stiglitz (1976)
argued that an increase in caloric intake enables workers to
perform more demanding tasks expressed in a greater marginal
productivity as measured by wages. Households produce both
marketable and non marketable goods. The nutritional (such as an
improved weight- for age of children) or health outcome (such as
individual morbidity) of a household is produced “by inputs, some of
which are subject to choice by the household. Hence individual
nutrient intake, activity levels and infections may be regarded as
resulting from current household decisions. In turn, the current
nutrient intake may affect the worker productivity. If this is
recognized by the market, i.e. local labour markets operate
relatively free and higher productivity is rewarded with higher
wages, then better nutrition should result in higher market earnings,
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since workers would either be paid more for a given time unit of
work, or they would be able to work in particularly taxing and
rewarding activities or both (Strauss, 1993).
However, in estimating this relationship, a methodological
pitfall occurs, the causality can run in both directive and hence earn
higher wages, and higher income will probably be spent for more
nutrients and make household members more healthy so that they
can earn higher wages. If this simultaneously is not accounted for,
estimates will be biased and inconsistent, a failure that has been
attributed to a number of early studies. Both experimental studies
and social economic surveys have attempted to quantify the effect
of nutrient intake on productivity.
- Experimental Studies
Among experimental studies, Key etal (1950) researched
how activity levels fall when males are subject to dramatic
decreases in Caloric intake. He found that activity levels fall
abruptly, when diets are reduced from 3,500 calories per day to
1,500 calories per day. In this experiment the total diet was
controlled, so that the problem of simultaneity did not arise.
32
Wolgemuth etal (1982) compared the gains in productivity of
workers moving earth, where one group was supplemented with
200 calories per day. They found a 12.5 percentage gain in
productivity by the highly supplemented group an a significant
output elasticity of calories on productivity of 0.5.
For the relationship between iron giving food deficiency and
productivity, Basta et al (1979) compared productivity of rubber
plantain workers in Indonesia. A group of workers received iron
supplements while another group received a placebo. Before the
intervention, the difference in labour productivity between anemic
and non anemic workers ranged from 18.7% to 20%, depending on
the task. After the intervention no statistically significant difference
in productivity was found between the two intervention groups.
2.4 THE IMPACT OF THE CURRENT FOOD CRISIS ON
NIGERIAN ECONOMY.
When the global financial melt down started mid last year, it
was widely believed that the toxic assets in America and European
banks were not in African banks. The banks were given a clean bill.
33
But right from the very beginning experts had warned that the
financial crunch could lead to economic recession which would
have dive consequences for the Nigerian economy. Crude oil
prices then had come down to $82 per barrel, Nigerians tool the
whole thing for granted faithing it that in the least crude oil prices
will stabilize at $50 per barrel. So the government went ahead and
proposed the 2009 budget on $45 per barrel of Crude oil.
Today, oil prices are in the region of $40 per barrel and still
drowning. Revenue from oil has plunged, external reserves in
which the country boosted has dropped to about $50 billion mid last
year. The naira exchange rate has depreciated by about 25
percent. The government faced with stack economic reality set up
an economic crisis management committee, headed by President
Umar Yar’adua.
Early last year, about 2000 poor masses hit the streets in
Cote D’Ivoire chanting “we are hungry”, “life is to expensive”, while
protesting the rise in food prices and attendant high cost of living.
The Ivorian protests were aptly expressing the harrowing agony of
hundreds of millions of people that have been pushed deeper into
34
poverty by the prevailing global food cost crisis. The last few years
have witnessed protest marches in Senegal, Cameroon, Burkina
Faso, Indonesia, Egypt, Philippines and some other countries in
the developing world. Significantly, the protest has brought down
the government of Haiti (Peluola 2008).
Globally, the price of staple crops such as wheat, rice and
corn have all risen, leading to an increase in overall food prices of
83% in the last three years, the World Bank says specifically
according to the Bloomberg survey, between March 2007 and
March 2008, the corn increased by 31%, rice 74%, soya 87% and
wheat 130%. Worse, there is no hope of improvement around the
corner; the poor masses have to gird their lions for expensive
foods. The World Bank has forecast that food crops are expected
to remain high in 2008 and 2009 and begin to decline, but they are
likely to remain well above the 2004 levels through 2015 for most
food crops (Peluola, 2008).
In Nigeria, there have not been protests but beneath the
apparent temperate social atmosphere is the growing tempest of
anger from workers and poor masses that have started staggering
35
under heavy blows of high cost of living. The cost of staples like
sugar, maize millet, wheat and rice have increased considerably in
the last few months. The price of a 50kg bag of rice for instance,
has increased from N6000 last December to about N10000 at
present. The Master Bakers Association has given notice of 25%
increase in bread prices by May 2009, coming much less than a
year after the last increase by the same rate. The association
rightly cited the astronomical rise in wheat flour and sugar prices
for the planned price review. (Ruma, 2008).
The average Nigerian family spends 73% of their budget on
food putting this together with cost of self help power generation
occasioned by the near collapse of public electricity, it means that
almost the entire take home pay is spent on food and energy.
Already the price of a bag of rice is higher than the minimum wage
of N7500 in the country.
According to the Minister of Agriculture, Sayyadi Abba
Ruma, worse days are ahead of Nigeria’s working masses. He
painted gloomy picture of the food crisis situation in the country
especially as regards production of rice. “We require 2.5million
36
metric tones of rice annually and our local rice production is not up
to 500000 metric tones per year” (Daily Trust, 2008). This implies
that Nigeria imports 80% of its rice consumption. Indeed Nigerian
are just in the frying pan on an inevitable transition to fire. Why?
Thailand, China, India, Vietnam and other countries from which
Nigeria imports its rice have placed export restrictions on the
commodity in order to safeguard their own domestic rice
requirement. In Nigeria, rice is already in short supply and
speculations have already taken it toll, the continued rise in prices
stave the poor masses in the face.
Every sector of Nigerian economy is a cesspit of corruption.
The ongoing probes of some transactions of last administration
have confirmed this. Stirring agriculture sector will surely exudes
more sickening stench than what has been revealed. The
deliberation of House of Representatives on the food crisis was
somewhat revealing of what normally becomes of the allocation to
the agriculture. While opposing the motion for supplementary
budget for the sector in order to tackle food crisis, Eta Enang, a
member of the House, argued that since 1999, an estimated
37
N78billion average had been voted for agriculture yearly without
result. He complained further that the bulk of money never got to
the real farmers but ended up settling over-head cost or agriculture
research that had not come with solutions. (Punch, 2008).
2.5 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
2.5.1 THE MALTHUSIAN THEORY OF POPULATION
Thomas Robert Malthus enunciated his views about
population in his faous book, Essay on the Principle of Population
as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society; published in 1798.
Malthus revolted against the prevailing optimism shared by his
father and Godwin that a perfect state could be attained if human
restraints could be removed. Malthus’ objection was that the
pressure of increasing population on the food supply would destroy
perfection and there would be misery in the world. Malthus was
severely criticized for his pessimistic views which led him to travel
on the continent of Europe to gather data in support of his thesis.
He incorporated his researches in the second edition of his essay
published in 1803.
38
The Malthusian theory explains the relationship between the
growth in food supply and in population. It states that population
increases faster than food supply and if unchecked leads to vice or
misery. The Malthusian doctrine is stated as follows:
1. There is a natural sex instinct in human beings to increase at
a fast rate. As a result, population increases in geometrical
progression and if unchecked doubles itself every 25 years. Thus
starting from 1, population in successive periods of 25 years will be
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256 (after 200 years).
2. On the other hand, the food supply increases in a slow
arithmetical progression due to the operation of the law of
diminishing returns based on the supposition that the supply of land
is constant. Thus the food supply in successive similar periods, will
be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 (after 200 years).
3. Since population increases in geometrical progression and
the food supply in arithmetical progression, population tends to out
run food supply. Thus an imbalance is created which leads to over-
population. This is depicted in Figure 21.1.
39
The food supply in arithmetical progression is measured on the
horizontal axis and the population in geometrical progression on
the vertical axis. The curve M is the Malthusian population curve
which shows the relation between population growth and increase
in food supply. It rises upward swiftly.
4. To control over-population resulting from the imbalance
between population and food supply, Malthus suggested preventive
checks and positive checks.
The preventive checks are applied by a man to control the
birth rate. They are foresight, late marriage, celibacy, moral
restraint, etc.
If people fail to check growth of population by the adoption of
preventive checks, positive checks operate in the form of vice,
misery, famine, war, disease, pestilence, floods and other natural
calamities which tend to reduce population and thereby bring a
balance with food supply. According to Malthus, preventive checks
are always in operation in a civilized society, for positive checks are
crude. Malthus appealed to his countrymen to adopt preventive
40
checks in order to avoid vice or misery resulting from the positive
checks. Malthus’ doctrine is illustrated below.
41
Imbalance leads to over
population
corrected by
DIAGRAMMATIC ILLUSTRATION OF THE THEORY
Population increases in Food increases in geometrical progression 1,2,4, arithmetical progression 1, 2, 38,16,32,64,128,256 in 200 years. 4,5,6,7, 8, 9, in 200 years
Preventive checks- late Positive checks-vice, marriage, chastity, moral misery, war, famine, restraint, etc. floods, etc.
IMPLICATION OF THE MALTHUSIAN THEORY
POPULATION ON THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
Malthus argued that population was held within resource
limits by two types of checks; positive ones which raised the death
rate and preventive ones, which lowered the birth rate.
42
Nigeria, with population of 140 million people currently
experiences a significant gap between her population is relatively
high compared to the availability of food; thus giving rise to the
already nagging food crisis in the economy “only few people can
afford three square meal in a day, because soared to an
unimaginable height in the last 12 months.
The demand side of India and China is also a major factor
militating against the availability of food-staple foods in consumable
and commercial quantum. According to world population bulletin,
India and China commands a greater percent of the estimated 6.5
billion people living on the face of the earth. Haiti, the Nigeria’s
major exporter of rice and wheat is now solely supplying China
thereby reducing Nigeria’s accessibility to abundant rice (Ruma,
2009).
2.5 THE IMPACT OF THE CURRENT FOOD CRISIS ON
NIGERIAN ECONOMY
When the global financial melt-down started mid last year, it
was widely believed that the toxic assets in America and European
banks were not in African banks. The banks were given a clean bill.
43
But right from the very beginning experts had warned that the
financial crunch would lead to economic recession which would
have dire consequences for the Nigerian economy. Crude oil prices
then had come down to $ 82 per barrel, Nigerians took the whole
thing for granted faithing that in the least crude oil prices will
stabilize at $50 per barrel. So the government went ahead and
proposed the 2009 budget in $45 barrel of crude oil.
Today, oil prices are in the region of $40 per barrel and still
drowning. Revenue from oil has blunged, external reserves in
which the country boasted has dropped to about $50 billion mid last
year. The naira exchange rate has depreciated by about 25
percent. The government faced with slack economic reality set up
an economic crisis management committee, headed by President
Umar Yar’adua.
Early last year, about 2000 poor masses hit the streets in
Cote d’ivoire chanting “we are hungry”, “life is too expensive”, while
protesting the rise in food prices and attendant high cost of living.
The Ivorian protests were aptly expressing the harrowing agony of
hundreds of million of people that have been pushed deeper into
44
poverty by the prevailing global food cost crisis. The last few years
have witnessed protest matches in Senegal, Cameroon, Burkina
Faso, Indonesia, Egypt, Philippines and some other countries in
the developing world. Significantly, the protest has brought down
the government of Haiti (Peluola, 2008).
Globally, the price of staple crops such as wheat, rice and
corn have all risen, leading to an increasing in overall food prices of
83% in the last three years, the World Bank says specifically,
according to the Bloomberg survey, between March 2007 and
March 2008, the corn increased by 31%, rice 74%, Soya 87% and
Wheat . Worse, there is no hope of improvement around the
corner; the poor masses have to gird their loins for expensive
foods. The World Bank has forecast that food crops are expected
to remain high in 2008 and 2009 and begin to decline, but they are
likely to remain well above the 2004 levels through 2015 for most
food crops (Peluola, 2008).
In Nigeria, there have not been protest but beneath the
apparent temperate social atmosphere is the growing tempest of
anger from workers and poor masses that have started staggering
45
under heavy blows of high cost of living. The cost of staples like
sugar, maize, millet, wheat & rice have increased considerably in
the last few months. The price of a 50kg bag of rice for instance
has increased from N6000 last December to about N10000 at
present (March, 2009). The Master Bakers Association has given
notice of 25% increase in bred prices by May 2008, coming much
less than a year after the last increase by the same rate. The
association rightly cited the astronomical rise in wheat flour and
sugar prices for the planned price review (Ruma, 2009).
The average Nigerian family spends 73% of their budget on
food putting this together with self help power generation
occasioned by the near collapse of public electricity, it means that
almost the entire take home pay is spent on food and energy.
Already the price of a bag of rice is higher than the minimum wage
of N7500 in the country. According to the Minister of Agriculture,
Sayyadi Abba Ruma, worse days are ahead of Nigeria’s working
masses. He painted gloomy picture of the food crisis situation in
the country especially as regards production of production. “We
require 2.5 million metric tones of rice annually and our local rice
46
production is not up to 5000000 metric tones per year. This implies
that Nigeria imports 80% of its rice consumption. Indeed Nigerians
are just in the frying pan on an inevitable transition to fire. Why?
Thailand, China, India, Vietnam and other order to safeguard their
own domestic rice requirement. In Nigeria, rice is already in short
supply and speculations have already taken its supply and
speculations have already taken its toll the continued rise in price
stare the poor masses in the face.
Every sector of Nigerian economy is a cesspit of corruption.
The ongoing probes of some transactions of last administration
have confirmed this. Stirring agriculture sector will surely exudes
more sickening stench than what has been revealed. The
deliberations of House of Representative on the food crisis was
somewhat revealing of what normally becomes of the allocation to
the agriculture. While opposing the motion for supplementary
budget for the sector in order to tackle food crisis, Eta Enang, a
member of the House, argued that since 1999, an estimated N78
billion average had been voted for agriculture yearly without result.
He complained further that the bulk of money never got to the real
47
farmers but ended up settling over-head cost or agriculture
research that had not come with solutions (Punch, 2008).
Trade liberalization has also meant that Nigeria and other
African countries are net importers of food. In order to generate
foreign exchange to either pay debt or, to much lesser extent,
develop their local economies, African countries are encouraged to
concentrate on production of cash crops ass against staple foods.
But these commodities have been made to cell at rock-bottom
prices by dictate of multinational food companies like Nestle and
flooding of market by cheap, heavily subsidized farm product from
the Us and Europe. For instance, West and Central Africa
potentially lose $240 million in Annual revenue form cotton exports
due to US subsidies alone, a study commissioned by the World
Bank reveals.
All this has affected development of agricultural exports in
Africa. As a result, Africa’s share of global agriculture exports have
dropped significantly, for instance from 8 percent in 1971-1980 to
3.4 percent in 1991-2000. According to he FAO, Africas’s
Agriculture deficit reached $20 billion in 2001-2003 (Enang, 2008).
48
The export earning of most African countries cannot cover
the food import bill because the prices of exports have not kept
pace with basic staples. They may be forced into another round of
debt peonage. The World Bank is already talking of doubling
agricultural loans to African countries from $400 million to $800
million (Robbert Zoellick). Though, they are booty traps, the World
bank loans are long terms. Then more deadly companions, the
loans from commercial banks, may not be forthcoming. The global
financial market crisis with its attendant credit of squeeze has
always threatened to make matters worse.
The soaring food prices, further triggered by heinous and
parasitic activities of capitalist speculators on commodity markets,
have created another scary chapter in the growing crisis of World
capitalism, which is already grappling with a serious financial
market crisis. Some economic analysts have already seen another
great depression lurking in the shadow. At present developing
countries are the worst hit of the food crisis.
Nigeria as a country highly depending on food imports,
Nigeria suffered from rocketing prices of basic food items since the
49
beginning of 2008. The price like is believed to reduce accessibility
of food for needy people to maintain their lives. The food crisis also
touched the various classes of people-upper, middle and lower
class. Investment in Nigeria Stock Market has also come under
huge pressure as dealers said that market would continue to
experience depression. It is learnt that the capitalization of the
Stock Market has dropped by 9.3 percent in less than 2 months as
the bears took over the control of the nation’s capital market.
2.7 AN APPRAISAL OF LITERATURE REVIEWED
The global food crisis has been sparked by a variety of
causes, some of which have been slow to develop. The major
contributing are: increase in oil prices, drought and climate change,
increased biofuels production, export restrictions, reduced grain
strikes, changes in income, population growth, urbanization,
speculation and decline in agricultural productivity.
Food problems have forced some Nigerians to engage in
social vices, which are having a negative impact on the nation.
These social vices include ethnic religions conflict, earned robbery,
50
prostitution, child trafficking etc. a hungry man is an easy target for
selfish member of the bourgeoise who would buy their services for
a price to foment anarchy within the society. From time immemorial
inadequate nutrition has been linked to lawlessness.
To get the global food crisis under control will require a
significant amount of strategic actions on the part of not just the
Nigerian government but government around the world and may
large conglomerates that control access to food.
51
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN
This research adopts an oral interview and personal
observation for the gather of facts. Fifteen questions were
structured and weighed as Yes or No. The main advantage of this
type of scale is the ease with which the subjects can complete the
format orderly and quickly.
3.2 RSEARCH AREA
The study covers three (3) randomly selected states in the
Southwest part of Nigeria. The selected states are:
1. Lagos state being the commercial nerve centre of the nation.
2. Oyo state having Ibadan which is the larges city in West
Africa as its State Capital.
3. Ogun state which is the resident state of the researcher.
3.3 SAMPLE AND SAMPLING PROCEDURE
Sample: The sample comprises of thiry (3) citizen residing in any
part of the three states selected for the purpose of this study.
52
Sampling: Three states are randomly selected. In each of the
states, ten (10) citizens will be randomly selected and thus be
given the opportunity to respond to the interview.
In carrying out the research work, the researcher, bearing it
in mind that not all Nigerian citizen can be interviewed must not be
bias in his selection. Hence, all class of citizens-lower, middle and
upper class will be interviewed for the purpose of precision and
validation of facts.
3.4 RESEARCH INSTRUMENT
The instrument used is oral interview. The researcher
develops some questions for interview with the aim of investigating
how the current food crisis has affected the Nigerian economy.
The items for interview will contain information such as
name, age, occupation, cadre and two (2) columns to express their
feelings though in a closed form i.e Yes and No.
3.5 VALIDATION OF RESEARCH INSTRUMENT
Validity is simply defined as the degree of which a test
measures what it is supposed to measure. Validity is the most
53
important quality of any test. If is concerned with what a test
measures and for which it is appropriate, since tests are designed
for a variety of purpose and validity can be evaluated only in terms
of purpose (Laolu, 2002).
Therefore to determine the content validity of the research
instrument, the drafted questions or items will be given to the
project supervisor for proper moderation after which the researcher
administers the instrument in order to evaluate it purpose and
validity.
54
3.6 DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURE
Data are raw unprocessed facts from which reliable and
useful conclusion may be drawn. Both primary and secondary data
are used for the analysis in the study.
For the purpose of this study, primary data are collected by
orally interviewing the respondents. The researcher may have to
speak in mother, tongue, if the need be.
3.7 DATA ANALYSIS STRATEGY
The information collected will be collated and analysed using
the econometric method of correlation. The correlation survey will
be adopted for the purpose of investigating the impact of the
current food crisis on the Nigerian economy.
Rank correlation formulae is given as
R = 1 - 6 ∑ d 2
n(n2-1)
55
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
4.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter presents copious and detailed analysis,
explanation and coherent descriptions of the divergent data
generated from the respondents of pertinent to the research work.
Hence thirty (30) people where interviewed and the results shall be
presented analytically in various variables for proper understanding
and its different hypothetical results shall be presented to form the
expected result of this research work.
4.2 ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
Table 1
Distribution of Respondents according to Sex
Gender Frequency Percentage Total
Male 15 50 15
Female 15 50 15
Total 30 100 30
Source: Author Survey.
56
From the table above, it is obviously seen that the researcher
is not gender bias in his interview as equal proportion of male and
female were interviewed, that is fifteen (15) males and fifteen (15)
females.
Table II
Distribution of respondents according to level of Education
Status Frequency Percentage
Literate 20 66.7
Illiterate 10 33.3
Total 30 100
The table above shows that 66.7% of the total sample were
literate while 33.3% of same are illiterates. This is a pointer the fact
that results gathered here are reliable and realistic.
Table III
Distribution of Respondents according to their occupation
Occupation Frequency Percentage(%)
Trader 5 16.7
57
Civil Servants 7 23.3
Students 3 10.0
Business Tycoon 5 16.7
Others 10 33.3
Total 30 100
The table above shows the distribution of respondents
according to their occupation. It can be seen that five (5)
representing 16.7% of the total sample are traders, seven (7)
representing 23.3% of the total sample are civil
servants,three(3)respondents representing 10% of the total sample
are student while the business tycoons are represented 16.7% of
the total sample and others under which are farmers artisan and
the unemployed represent 33.3% of the total sample.
4.3 HYPOTHESIS TESTING USING THE ECONOMETRIC
TOOL OF CORRELATION ANALYSIS (SPEARMAN’S RANK
COEFFICIENT OF CORRELATION)
58
R = 1 - 6∑d 2
n(n2-1)
where N = number of pairs of values
∑ = summation
d =
Hypothesis 1
Ho: There is no significant relationship between the recent food
crisis and increase in social vices.
Table IV
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD CRISIS AND SOCIAL VICES
X Y RX RY RX-RY d2
28 2 1 5 -4 16
26 4 2.5 3.5 -1 1
21 9 4 2 3 4
15 15 5 1 4 16
26 4 2.5 3.5 -1 1
0 38
59
SOURCE: AUTHOR’S COMPUTATION
From the table above the Spearman’s rank correlation
coefficient (R) is 0.9 which indicates a strong and positive
correlation between food crisis and increase in social vices.
Hypothesis II
Ho: There is no significant relationship between increase in
population and upsurge in food prices.
Table 5
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INCREASE IN POPULATION AND
UPSURGE OF FOOD PRICES
X Y RX RY RX-RY d2
22 8 1 5 -4 16
12 18 5 1 4 16
20 10 2.5 3.5 -1 1
20 10 2.5 3.5 -1 1
15 15 4 2 2 4
0 38
60
The (R) which is the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient
from the above table indicates a positive and strong relationship
between increase population and increase in food prices. The R of
0.9 is a pointer to the fact that the rapid growth rate of population is
a catalyst to food crisis in Nigeria.
Hypothesis III
Ho: There is no significant relationship between economic
meltdown and food price surges.
Table 6
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC MELT DOWN AND
FOOD PRICE SURGES
X Y RX RY RX-RY d2
12 18 3 3 0 0
22 8 2 4 -2 4
6 24 5 1 4 16
10 20 4 2 2 4
25 5 1 5 -4 16
0 40
61
Table 6 above shows a Spearman’s correlation coefficient result of
1.00 which indicate a unity relationship between economic
meltdown and increase in food prices. This shows that the credit
crunch is highly responsible for the global financial crisis.
4.4 ECONOMIC IMPLICATION OF RESULTS
The result from hypothesis one shows that there is a strong
and positive correlation between food crisis and increase in social
vices. This means that a marginal increase in the prices of food will
lead to automatic increase in social vices. This result is consistent
with Black et al (2001) who claimed that “a time will come when
there will no longer be robbers of money, but food robbers because
gone are the days when we go to market with money in our
pockets and return home with food in our baskets. Today we go to
the market with money in our baskets and food in our pockets”.
However hypothesis two tested shows that an upsurge in
food crisis is a function of increase in population. To Malthus, a
time will come when the available food will not be able to go round
62
the increasing population. He said that he rate of increase in food
production is an arithmetic progression while increase in population
is in geometric progression. This potends great danger for a
country like Nigeria with an ever increasing population and only few
percentage of such population are willing to go into agriculture.
Lastly there is a relationship- a positive one between
economic melt-down and food price surges. The recent global
financial crisis had ensured that the prices of wheat- the food of the
common man doubles its price in the last 12 month. Grain foods
prices increases over 100% in the last 18 months (Roebert Zoell,
2008). However, in Nigeria, the increase in the prices of food had
lowered saving habits and increase disposable income which
consequently reduces investments. In an economy where there is
little or no investments, there occurs paradox of savings.
4.5 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
In this study, an attempt was made to measure the impact of
the current food crisis on the Nigerian economy. Three (3)
hypothesis were tested and the null hypothesis were all rejected
and conversely accepting the alternative hypothesis.
63
Hypothesis are states that “there is no significant relationship
between the recent food crisis and increase in social vices”. The
analysis in table IV however shows a strong and positive
relationship between food crisis and escalation in crime rates. This
may be due to the inability of parents to cater for their children as a
result of larger percentage of their disposable income going to food
consumption leaving them with little or nothing to invest on the
education of their children. It is a popular saying that an idle hands
is the devils workshop, children, teenagers and youths may take to
crime when they are idle, hungry or not will catered for.
Hypothesis two states that “there is no significant relationship
between increase in population growth rate and upsurge in food
crisis”. From the analysis in table five, it is seen that there is also a
strong positive relationship between population growth and food
crisis. This is in line with the Malthusian theory population. Malthus
argued that population was held within resource limits by two types
of checks positive ones which raised death rate and preventive
ones which lowered birth rates.
64
Nigeria, with a population of 140 million people currently
experiences a significant gap between her population and the trend
of food supply. The population is relatively high compared to the
availability of food; this giving a rise to the already nagging food
crisis in the economy “only few people can afford three course
meals a day, because the price of stable food had seared to an
unimaginable height in the last 12 months” (Ruma, 2008).
However, hypothesis three states that “there is no significant
relationship between economic melt down and food crisis”. The
table six however showed a perfect agreement between economic
meltdown and global food crisis. “ The same factors responsible for
the global credit crunch is undoubtedly those responsible for the
food crisis, lives are wasting away, crops are found on the street of
Somalia because of this food crisis, it has even hit the world’s
richest country”. (Kaplan, 2008). It should however be borne in min
that an attempt to proffer solution to the lingering economic crisis
will inadvertently translate to a curve for the endemic global food
crisis
65
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 SUMMARY
Nigeria is currently experiencing a serious food crisis in its
history. The crisis manifest itself in the inability of the nation to
produce enough food to feed its population and the need to import
food at exorbitant prices. food shortage and hunger have resulted
in the incidence of malnutrition and kwashiorkor among its citizen.
Successive government in Nigeria have however failed to provide
enough food to meet the needs of their citizens. This study have
however explored various cause and reasons for the current food
crisis in the nation. Among the identifiable reasons are:
i. The World Bank and IMF set up largely by the US following
the second world war are notorious for refusing to advance loans to
poor countries unless they agree to structural adjustment
programmes that require the loan recipient to devalue their
currencies, cut taxes, private utilities and reduce or eliminate
support programmes for farmers. The result are a weakened state,
66
impoverished local farmers and increased economic domination by
international dominations.
ii. Rich country subsidies: In Canada for example, allow the
federal government to pay farmers $225 for each pig killed in an
ongoing mass call of breeding swine, as part of a plan to reduce
pork production.
iii. Biofuel programmes are now channeling massive quantities
of cereal and other crops to produce fuel for the worlds wealthy to
run their second and third family cars while close to a billion starve.
iv. The current US sponsored wars in the middle east with the
resultant skyrocketing oil price, are merely accelerating a descent
into the abyss, as it and its conjunct, NATO, continue to expand
beyond all responsible limits and venture unto Asia, threatening
more and more recalcitrant countries with loss of sovereignty,
subversion and outright invasion. Others include neglect of the
agricultural sector in favour of the oil sector, global warming etc.
5.2 CONCLUSION
Having competed the analysis of this research findings, the
following conclusions have been drawn.
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Efforts should be made by government and all
conglomerates that controls access to food to engineer efforts
towards encouraging agriculture as this will go a long way curbing
the lingering crisis. The study revealed that there is a strong
relationship between food crisis and social vices.
It was also revealed in the course of research that a
significant relationship exists between population an upsurge in
food prices. The relationship here is direct that is a population
increases, food prices also increase which posses great challenge
to the Nigerian economy and the world at large.
The lingering credit crunch rocking the globe is another
notable factor responsible for food crisis world over. An attempt to
proffer solution to the economic melt down will translate to a curve
for the ‘disease’ global food crisis.
5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS
As Robert Zoellick (2008) puts, in 2020, the world’s
population will mostly likely reach 7.6 billion, an increase of 31%
over the mid 1996 population of 5.8 billlion approximately 98% of
the projected population growth over this period will take place in
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developing countries. It has also been estimated that between the
years 1995 and 2020 the developing world’s urban population will
double reaching 3.4 billion. This overall increase in population and
in the urban population in particular, poses great challenges to food
systems.
Therefore to get the global food crisis under control will
require a significant amount of strategic actions on the part of not
just the Nigerian government but government around the world and
many large conglomerates that controls access to food.
However, intensification of agriculture and animal husbandry;
more efficient food handling processing and distribution systems;
introduction of newer technologies including appropriate application
of biotechnology will all have to be explooted to increase food
availability to meet the need of growing populations.
It should be borne in mind that some of this practices an
technologies may also pose potential problems of food safety and
nutritional quality and call for special attention in order to ensure
protection.
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ABSTRACT
This study was aimed at investigating the impact of the
current food crisis on the Nigerian economy from 1980 to 2006.
The Econometric tool of correlation analysis was adopted for the
purpose of analyzing the data collected. From the analysis however
a positive Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient of 0.9, 0.9 and
1.0 was gotten for the three hypothesis tested respectively. The
research revealed that there is a strong positive relationship
between increase in population, and upsurge in food prices. Again,
it was revealed that there is a relationship between food crisis and
increase in social vices. Also the study showed that there is a
positive relationship between the global financial crisis and food
crisis.
The researcher however recommended that intensification of
agriculture and animal husbandry; more efficient food handling
processing and distribution systems; introduction of new
technologies including appropriate application in biotechnology will
all have to be exploited to increase food availability to meet the
need of the growing population.
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CERTIFICATION
I certify that this research work was carried out by FASUGBA
OLADIPUPO MOBOLAJI in the Department of Economics, Tai
Solarin University of Education, Ijagun, Ijebu-Ode, under my
supervision.
___________________
__________________
MR AGBATOGUN K.K DATE
PROJECT SUPERVISOR
DEDICATION
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This project is dedicated to the Almighty God, the giver of life
and the sustainer of all mankind. Also to the memories of my Late
Father, Elder Emmanuel Akinniyi Fasugba who slept just after this
research work began.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I have learnt in life, that the greatest asset anyone can
posses is the ability to give honest and sincere appreciation. I have
grown up to know that whosoever exhibits the traits of an ingrate, is
incapable of any noble sentiment, because even the lower animals
knows how to express gratitude to their benefactor.
It is on this note that I appreciate the Almighty God, the
Lover of my soul for sparing my life thought my course of study. It
is indeed all bout God.
I wish to place on record the support given to me by my God
given project supervisor, Mr. Agbatogun K.K. You are like a brother
to me, for your constructive criticism, correction and guidance
throughout the project work, I say God bless you.
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I also want to appreciate my mentor, the Region 8 Pastor of
THE GOSPEL FAITH MISSION INTERNATIONAL, Pastor Stephen
Oluwambe Shoretire for your fatherly support in all ramifications.
God bless you.
My gratitude goes to Deacon Seyi Oladapo for always being
there. Your efforts over me are duly noted, God will reward you.
To my friend in need Akinshola Damilola, you are God sent
and I pray that the Almighty God will be your help. I want to
appreciate Gofamint Salvation army members for all their support,
Aunty Taye and Aunty Ayo (Shammah Mammas), Mamma Abe,
Daddy Tobi, Deacon Ajayi, Deacon Ola Familusi, Mr and Mrs
Adekanmbi, Pastor Samule Adusi, Bro Samson Gabriel and those I
cannot I say God bless you.
Now to my family, my God given family, starting from my
mother Mrs Elizabeth Omolayo Fasugba you are one in a million.
God bless you and give you long life to reap the fruits of your
labours. To my brothers and sisters, Brother Moses Fasugba,
Pastor Joshua Fasugba, Sister Deborah (nee fasugba), brother
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Elijah Fasugba and Sister Wunmi Fasugba. May God bless you all
for your efforts over me. We shall all make it together.
REFERENCES
- Kelyin Pina “Mud Cookie Economics in Haiti, Haiti action
network Feb 10, 2008.
- Tony Kaaron “How Hunger could topple regimes” Time, April
11, 2008.
The new face of hunger. The economist 19, 2008.
Mark Lyna “How the Rich starved the world” New Statesman April
17, 2008.
Dale Allen Pfeiffer, Eating fossil fuels, New society publishers
Gabriola Islan bc 2006
Oxfan international briefing paper, April 2005. “Kicking Down the
door”
OELD background Nite Agriculural policy and trade reform
Kjell Harnerk, Deborah Byleson, Lars-Erik Burgegard, prosper
matondi & Atakitte Beyene “African Agriculture and the World bank.
74
Development or impoverishment? Links international journal of
socialist renewal.
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TAI SOLARIN UNIVERSITY OF EDUCATIONH IJAGUN, IJEBU
ODE, OGUN STATE
COLLEGE OF SOCIAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES,
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Dear Respondents
This interview is designed to investigate the impact of the
current food crisis on the Nigerian Economy.
I hereby appeal for your cooperation throughout this
interview. All information from you in this interview will be treated
confidentially.
SECTION A
Instruction: Kindly fill or thick ( ) the appropriate answer to fill the
blank spaces.
Name
Sex
Occupation
Rank/ cadre 6-8 ( ) 9-11( ) 12-14 ( ) none ( )
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Others ( )
Section B
Yes
No
1. There had been ford crisis in Nigeria before.
2. Increase in population is a determinant of food crisis
3. The economic meltdown affected Nigeria
4. Food crisis had triggered crime rates
5. People can steal when they are hungry
6. The prices of food is rising because too many people
demand for it
7. Increase in the price of crude oil is responsible for increase
in prices of food
8. Food is only expensive in Nigeria
9. I -still eat three course meal dearly
10. Though food is relatively expensive now but not with
the same quality as before
11. My savings is affected because of the exorbitant
amount I pay as food
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12. Population size should be curtailed
13. We are happier than our forefathers
78