the best way to predict the future is to create it
TRANSCRIPT
The best way topredict the future
is to create itPaul Vittles
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Drivers for this presentation
Learning from 24 years in research and 11 years as a coach – questions & answers
Debate around the extent to which we can predict the future and shape the future
Issues around client service, own organisation, own life – need for visions and goals
Receiving more briefs from clients asking for a ‘visioning exercise’
Skills, process, models for developing visions?
Lessons from effective leaders
Be more bullish about changing the future – our clients and our own!
Do we think we can predict the future?Do we think we can create the future?
Predicting the futureSophisticated science or mug’s game?
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Problems with predicting the future and creating the future
“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad”(President of Michigan Bank when asked to invest in Ford in 1903)
“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”(Harry Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927)
Sheep and the wool industry in Australia
Self-limiting beliefs, eg 4-Minute Mile Barrier Optimists and pessimists Reality is the enemy of the dream
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Asking the key questions
What kind of person do we want to be?
What kind of city or state do we want to live in?
What do we want our
industry to be like?
What kind of organisation or team do we want to belong to?
What kind of product or service do we want to provide?What do we want
our planet to be in
50 years’ time?
Lessons from effective leadershipInspiring, shared visions = creating the future
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Origins of Desired State Planning
Many academics and practitioners claim to be the originators
Does it matter?!
Obsession with predicting the past as well as predicting the future!
Many relate it back to NLP (Neuro Linguistic Programming)
Others align it with Appreciative Inquiry (Cooperrider et al)
Bridges academic literature, management literature and popular literature
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The Desired State Planning Model
The Transition State
The Desired State
The Current State
1. Create the transition state
2. Evaluate the current state
3. What must not change
4. What must change
5. Define the desired state
6. Live in the desired state
7. Use change dynamics
8. Support the change process
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Desired State Planning works on all levels
Individual Team Product Service
Policy Programme Organisation Industry
State Country Region Planet
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The Push-Pull-Involve Model
Define Current State
Push effect
Involve stakeholders
Define Desired State
Pull effect
Involve stakeholders
Move to Desired State
Dynamics for change?
Involve stakeholders
Researchers are pushing but not pullingDo we know where we’re trying to get to?
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Some problems and challenges ahead
Starting with the end in mind, eg is the presentation the beginning or the end?
Workshops at the beginning or the end?
Help in defining the vision? Help in defining the ‘finishing line’?
Surveys with a past and a present but no future
Who is responsible for stakeholder engagement?
Is there a future for satisfaction surveys?!
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The Problem State, The Busy State
“How are you?”… … “Busy!”
Busy fool syndrome
Directionless busyness
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Need behaviour change but we are creatures of habit
Entrenched habits
We research habits
We have our own habits
Conscious and unconscious
Routines = comfort and efficiency
People don’t like (too much) change
Safe place from which to innovate
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Resistance to change…
…but we are adaptable!
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Key success factors
Get off the treadmill
Dissatisfaction with the status quo – identify or create
Define desired state – specific and achievable
Analyse what needs to change/ not change
Focus on incentives to change/ benefits of change
Effective stakeholder engagement throughout
Momentum: move, inform, celebrate
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Contribution of research(ers)
Can help clients step off the treadmill
Strong on current state analysis
Identify or create dissatisfaction
Analysis of change dynamics
Post-research workshops
Good track record on PUSH factors
Poor track record on PULL factors
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Let’s get dissatisfied!
Being satisfied is the problem
‘Satisficing’ is the problem
Benchmarked to death!
Aspiring to be average!
Arbitrary snapshots and arbitrary baselines
So what?!
To what?!
30%
50%
70%
90% 90%
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
% Satisfied
70% 75%75% 80%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year 1 Year 2
Organisation AOrganisation B
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Employee research dynamics
Lack of organisational vision
Satisfaction surveys operating in a vacuum
Backslapping and defensive benchmarking
Dynamic approaches? Drill down, qual, focus on potential…or…
Focus on the desired state
Build around the vision or build the vision
Visioning requires passion and imagination
Need future featuring modelsAspirational benchmarks
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Future-featuring case studies
Cheshire Adult Education
Kensington Academy
Rotherham 2020
Sara Lee Cakes
School meals services
Reach for the Sky
Reach for the SkyCase study
Victims of change or instigators of change?Researchers as change agents
Part of the problem or part of the solution?!
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Personal change
Organisational change is sum of personal changes
Change is difficult for individuals
Same rules apply reason to change? benefits of change? influence over the change? support through the change?
Current state dominance & death by habit
Underestimate long-term and overestimate short-term
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Goal dynamics
Identify the issue
Set a goal
Develop an action plan
Act
Evaluate
Achieve goal
MonitorChange what’s not workingDo more of what works
Source: Greene & Grant
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g
r
ow
t
h
building the trust relationships
goals what do you need to achieve?
reality what is happening now?
options what could you do?
will what will you do?
tactics how and when will you do it?
habits how will you sustain your success?
celebrating the results Source: AGC
The GROWTH Model
results
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Maintaining a balanced perspective
Learning
Performance
Enjoyment
The three dimensions of happinessPast, present, future
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It’s all about YOU – personal happiness exercise
Think about when you are happy
Where are you?
What are you doing?
Who are you with?
Write down your happy scenarios list
When was the last time you did this?
Do you want more of this?
What’s stopping you from doing this/doing this more often?
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Personal change model
Personal desired state?
Personal current state?
Desire to change?
Please write down:
one thing you want to do more of one thing you want to do less of one thing you want to start doing one thing you want to stop doing
Predicting the future is history, so create the future
The future is the future!
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The future is the future!
Understand the dynamics of change for the benefit of yourself and your clients
Don’t be satisfied with satisfaction
Challenge the status quo
Become pullers as well as pushers
Build the future into your research programmes
The best way to predict the future is to create it
We’re in the vision business now!
