The Anatomy of a Stock Market Winner

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<ul><li><p>CFA Institute</p><p>The Anatomy of a Stock Market WinnerAuthor(s): Marc R. ReinganumSource: Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 44, No. 2 (Mar. - Apr., 1988), pp. 16-28Published by: CFA InstituteStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4479099 .Accessed: 13/06/2014 20:02</p><p>Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms &amp; Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp</p><p> .JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range ofcontent in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new formsof scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.</p><p> .</p><p>CFA Institute is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Financial AnalystsJournal.</p><p>http://www.jstor.org </p><p>This content downloaded from 91.229.229.49 on Fri, 13 Jun 2014 20:02:10 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions</p><p>http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=cfahttp://www.jstor.org/stable/4479099?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp</p></li><li><p>by Marc R. Reinganum </p><p>The Anatomy of a Stock Market Winner </p><p>An examination of 222 firms whose stocks at least doubled in price during one year of the 1970-83 period reveals several distinct features shared by the majority of companies. For example, investment advisers on average more than doubled their claims in these winners while stock prices were advancing. Also, the firms' pretax profit margins rose by about 2 per cent during the period of rapid price appreciation, while their growth rates based on five years of quarterly earnings data advanced from an average of 23 per cent to 38.2 per cent. In- deed, changes in earnings growth rates and profit margins probably fueled the price advances. </p><p>Of perhaps greater interest are the shared features that revealed themselves prior to the rapid price appreciation. The winners, for example, generally sold at a price less than their book value prior to their substantial price advances. Their quarterly earnings accelerated in the quarters preceding the price rise, and their relative-strength ranks, while already high, increased further. </p><p>Nine characteristics common to the 222 stock market winners were used to form the basis of a trading strategy that was applied to 2,057 NYSE and AMEX firms over the 1970-83 period. The trading strategy significantly outperformed the S&amp;P 500 index. After one year, the average holding-period return of the selected firms equaled 30.6 per cent, versus 6.9 per cent for the S&amp;P 500. By the end of two years, the sample firms' average holding-period return was 65.4 per cent, versus 14.7 per cent for the index. These return differentials amount to excess returns for the trading strategy of 23.7 and 50.7 per cent after one and two years, respectively. Thesc results cannot be explained by the firms' historical betas or stock market capitalizations. </p><p>M OST ACADEMIC RESEARCH dur- ing the 1960s and early 1970s sup- ported the hypothesis that capital </p><p>markets are efficient, hence that investors can- not systematically outperform naive investment strategies such as buying and holding a market </p><p>index. Technical and fundamental research based on publicly available information would improve investment performance only margin- ally at best, and probably not at all. Throwing darts to select stocks would be just about as effective. </p><p>Serious chinks in this simple view of invest- ment performance began to appear by the late 1970s and early 1980s. Basu, drawing on earlier work by Nicholson, reported that portfolios comprised of stocks with low price/earnings ratios outperformed portfolios with high price/ earnings ratios by about 7 per cent per year, even after adjusting returns for the beta risk of the Capital Asset Pricing Model.1 Banz and </p><p>Marc Reinganum is Phillips Professor of Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Iowa. </p><p>The author thanks Nai-Fu Chen, Charles D'Ambrosio, Kim Dietrich, Wayne Ferson, Larry Harris, Al MacGre- gor, William O'Neil, Jack Treynor, Robert Vishny and Mark Weinstein for their helpful comments. </p><p>Partial funding and research support for this study were provided by the William O'Neil Company, the University of Chicago and the University of Southern California. 1. Footnotes appear at end of article. </p><p>FINANCIAL ANALYSTS JOURNAL / MARCH-APRIL 1988 D 16 </p><p>This content downloaded from 91.229.229.49 on Fri, 13 Jun 2014 20:02:10 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions</p><p>http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp</p></li><li><p>Reinganum found that stocks with very small market capitalizations had outperformed large- capitalization companies by about 20 per cent on an annual basis.2 Other "investment anoma- lies," characterizing peculiar patterns in the timing of stock returns, also emerged, ranging from a month-of-the-year or January effect to a week-of-the-month effect to a day-of-the-week effect and even down to an hour-of-the-day effect.3 While each of these studies focused on a different problem, they shared at least one conclusion: Investors may be able to beat stock performance benchmarks using publicly avail- able information. (Whether the potential superi- or performance reflects deficiencies in the benchmark or informational inefficiencies in the stock market is still being debated.) </p><p>This article analyzes characteristics of past stock market winners to see whether they may yield some insights into successful investment strategies. Earlier research has isolated a partic- ular attribute (such as P/E or size) and then investigated its associated return behavior; we take the opposite tack. We single out stocks with exceptionally high returns to see whether these firms share any common attributes. If history does repeat itself, these common attri- butes may suggest an investment strategy. </p><p>The Data Our research differs not only in its experimental design, but also in its data. We turned to the Datagraph books (published by William O'Neil + Co. and sold primarily to institutional inves- tors), which report a host of fundamental and technical information about firms traded on listed exchanges and the OTC markets.4 In a search for common attributes among stock mar- ket winners, these data offer a much wider choice of potential candidates than CRSP or Compustat data. We also garnered our list of "winners" from an O'Neil publication, The Greatest Stock Market Winners: 1970-1983, which contains 272 episodes of explosive price appreci- ation for companies that traded on the NYSE, AMEX and OTC markets. </p><p>The Set Of Winners We considered the universe of winners com- </p><p>prising the firms contained in The Greatest Stock Market Winners: 1970-1983. Several companies were classified as "great" winners during two separate episodes over the 1970-83 period. To be considered a great winner, a company typi- </p><p>cally had to at least double in value within a calendar year; there were a few exceptions to this guideline, and not all companies that dou- bled in value were selected.5 </p><p>We merged the list of great winners with a file containing historical information on 2,279 NYSE and AMEX companies; these data were pub- lished in various issues of O'Neil's Datagraph over the 1970-83 period. Of 272 winning cases, 222 could be matched with the Datagraph infor- mation; the unmatched companies were OTC firms not covered in the historical files or firms whose CUSIP numbers could not be matched because of name changes. The complete list of 272 winners enjoyed average price appreciation of 361 per cent; the matched list of 222 winners increased in value by an average 349 per cent. </p><p>To compute the price appreciation of the winners, we assigned them hypothetical buy and sell dates. These dates were selected ex post facto, hence were not generated from actual stock market recommendations. The number of weeks between hypothetical purchase and sale varied from company to company. Panel A of Table I summarizes the price appreciations of the 222 winners between the buy and sell dates. While the average advance of 349 per cent was pulled up by the performance of a couple of stocks with astronomical price advances (4009 and 2554 per cent), more than half the firms increased in value by at least 237 per cent. One- quarter of these firms earned more than 370 per cent, and more than 95 per cent at least doubled in value. </p><p>Panel B of Table I displays the number of weeks that elapsed between buy and sell dates. Half the firms were held for less than 60 weeks. One-tenth of the firms were held for more than </p><p>Table I Price Appreciation and Length of Time Position Held </p><p>Panel A: Price Appreciation (per cent) </p><p>Percentiles </p><p>Mean 349 5% 104 95% 945 Median 237 10% 119 90% 652 </p><p>25% 159 75% 370 Panel B: Elapsed Time Between Buy and Sell Dates </p><p>(in weeks) </p><p>Percentiles </p><p>Mean 77 5% 26 95% 178 Median 60 10% 34 90% 155 </p><p>25% 44 75% 96 </p><p>FINANCIAL ANALYSTS JOURNAL / MARCH-APRIL 1988 C 17 </p><p>This content downloaded from 91.229.229.49 on Fri, 13 Jun 2014 20:02:10 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions</p><p>http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp</p></li><li><p>three years. Only 5 per cent of the firms were held for less than 26 weeks. </p><p>Regardless of the precise method by which companies were chosen for inclusion in The Greatest Stock Market Winners, the performance of the sample firms is truly exceptional by any standard. Below, we compare the firms' finan- cial conditions in the buy quarter with their conditions in the sell quarter and in the quarters immediately preceding the buy signal. </p><p>Characteristics of the Winners We classified each variable contained in the Datagraph files into one of five categories.6 The first category, "smart money," includes the behaviors of professionally managed funds and corporate insiders. The second category con- tains valuation measures such as price/book and price/earnings ratios. The third grouping in- cludes technical indicators such as relative strength. The fourth class consists of accounting earnings and profitability measures. The final category contains some miscellaneous variables that did not seem to fit into the other four groups. </p><p>"Smart Money" Variables The "smart money" variables reveal the stock </p><p>holdings of professionally managed investment funds and corporate insiders. Even if they are </p><p>not clairvoyants, money managers and corpo- rate insiders are probably well-informed. We broke professionally managed funds down into four groups-investment advisers, banks, mu- tual funds and insurance companies. For each of these groups, O'Neil reports the number of institutions holding a particular issue as well as the aggregate holdings of these institutions as percentages of the outstanding common stock. We will focus on the holdings of investment advisers, which exhibit the most pronounced changes; the results for the other groups are qualitatively similar.7 </p><p>Table II provides data on investment adviser holdings in the sell quarter, the buy quarter and the eight quarters preceding the buy date. Be- tween the buy and sell dates, the number of investment advisers owning the 222 winners more than doubled, increasing from an average of 9.3 advisers per company to 20.9. The change in investment adviser ownership claims is just as dramatic; these more than doubled on aver- age. The percentage of outstanding stock held by investment advisers rose from an average of 7.2 per cent in the buy quarter to 14.9 per cent in the sell quarter. </p><p>As a group, investment advisers concentrated their holdings in fewer companies than banks or mutual funds. Of the 222 winners, only 103 and 145 were in the portfolio of at least one invest- </p><p>Table II Investment Adviser Holdings in Sell, Buy and Eight Preceding Quarters </p><p>Panel A: Number of Investment Advisers Owning Shares Percentile </p><p>Quarter Mean 1st 5th 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th 95th 99th Sell 20.9 0 0 0 0 14 31.0 47.0 74.5 125 Buy 9.3 0 0 0 0 0 13.0 26.4 35.8 110 Buy-i 7.7 0 0 0 0 0 9.0 23.7 30.8 100 Buy-2 7.2 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 22.7 30.8 96 Buy-3 7.2 0 0 0 0 0 7.0 21.0 31.8 105 Buy-4 7.2 0 0 0 0 0 7.0 21.0 36.0 107 Buy-5 7.2 0 0 0 0 0 6.5 20.4 34.2 110 Buy-6 7.2 0 0 0 0 0 6.0 20.5 30.7 117 Buy-7 7.2 0 0 0 0 0 5.0 22.0 27.5 115 Buy-8 7.2 0 0 0 0 0 4.0 22.0 28.2 121 </p><p>Panel B: Percentage of Outstanding Stock held by Investment Advisers Percentile </p><p>Quarter Mean 1st 5th 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th 95th 99th Sell 14.9 0 0 0 0 10.5 25.0 36.0 40.7 82.3 Buy 7.2 0 0 0 0 0.0 13.0 23.0 31.8 58.1 Buy-i 6.3 0 0 0 0 0.0 10.2 20.7 31.5 58.0 Buy-2 5.8 0 0 0 0 0.0 9.2 21.0 27.8 44.0 Buy-3 6.3 0 0 0 0 0.0 8.5 21.6 26.3 36.0 Buy-4 6.3 0 0 0 0 0.0 8.0 20.0 27.0 37.0 Buy-5 6.3 0 0 0 0 0.0 7.0 20.2 29.1 38.0 Buy-6 6.3 0 0 0 0 0.0 8.0 22.5 27.0 34.1 Buy-7 6.3 0 0 0 0 0.0 6.5 21.0 24.6 35.1 Buy-8 6.3 0 0 0 0 0.0 7.0 19.0 25.6 36.2 </p><p>FINANCIAL ANALYSTS JOURNAL / MARCH-APRIL 1988 0 18 </p><p>This content downloaded from 91.229.229.49 on Fri, 13 Jun 2014 20:02:10 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions</p><p>http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp</p></li><li><p>ment adviser in the buy and sell quarters, respectively. But although investment advisers avoided placing funds in a substantial fraction of the winners, they appear to have been very aggressive with their investments in the compa- nies they did purchase. </p><p>Despite the investment advisers' aggressive positioning during the period of major price appreciation, their sponsorship data hold little promise of forecasting the big price change. Although there is a slight increase in sponsor- ship by investment advisers in the quarter or two preceding the buy date, the change is minuscule compared with that observed be- tween the buy and sell dates. While these data do not indicate whether investment advisers jumped on the bandwagon or followed it, they suggest that these institutions cannot serve as the bellwether of stock price surges. The past behavior of investment advisers is not apt to be a good predictor of future stock price move- ments. </p><p>We can draw several general observations from the professionally managed funds as a whole. If hindsight were foresight, one would like to know of impending significant increases in the sponsorship of stock held by banks, mutual funds and investment advisers. Be- tween the buy and sell dates, these groups of </p><p>professionally managed funds increased their average ownership stakes in the 222 winners by 25, 60 and 107 per cent, respectively. At least at the conclusion of the rapid price advance, these funds were where the action was. Prior to the buy quarter, the ownership claims of these managed funds tended to rise only slightly; the big increase in sponsorship occurred as prices began to escalate sharply. Thus professional money managers may participate in, but do not prophesy, extraordinary price appreciation. </p><p>Corporate insiders form anoth...</p></li></ul>