thailand energy projection 2004-2015
DESCRIPTION
Thailand energy projection 2004-2015TRANSCRIPT
12th APEC Clean Fossil Energy Technical and 11th APEC Coal Flow (Policy) Seminar
Cebu, Philippines, January 26 - 29, 2005
PrapasPrapas VichakulVichakul VirojViroj SivavongSivavong
Director-Fuel Management Division Chief-Coal Management Department
Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
Thailand Coal Demand for Power Generation Thailand Coal Demand for Power Generation in 2004 in 2004 -- 20152015
ContentsContents
1. Introduction1. Introduction2. Energy Supply and Demand 2. Energy Supply and Demand 3. Energy Security and Policy3. Energy Security and Policy4. Coal Supply and Demand 4. Coal Supply and Demand 5. Environment Responsibility5. Environment Responsibility6. Conclusions 6. Conclusions
1. Introduction1. Introduction
After the country has recovered from the economic crisis, the electricity consumption has grown rapidlyFor the year 2004, Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee (TLFS) is projection electricity demand and energy generation requirement will grow by 6.65% and 6.34% in the Moderate Economic Growth (MEG) scenarioEGAT formulate a new Power Development Plan (PDP 2004) base on the forecast adjusted by EGAT with respect to the TLFS forecastPDP was prepared to assure power availability, affordability and security over the next 12 year (2004-2015)
2. Energy Supply and Demand2. Energy Supply and Demand
Present StatusPresent Status
Peak demand for fiscal year 2004 reached 19,325.8 MW Peak demand for fiscal year 2004 reached 19,325.8 MW on March 30, 2004on March 30, 2004Total installed capacity of the system is 25,705.2 MWTotal installed capacity of the system is 25,705.2 MW1,204.4 MW (6.65%) up from the peak on May 7, 2003 1,204.4 MW (6.65%) up from the peak on May 7, 2003 to hit 18,121.4 MWto hit 18,121.4 MW
Total installed capacity = 25,705.2 MW Total installed capacity = 25,705.2 MW (As of March 2004)(As of March 2004)
Renewable Energy , 122.90 MW ( 0.48% )
EGAT – TNB HVDC Link, 300.00 MW
(1.17% )Gas Turbine and
Diesel Power Plants, 1,148.00 MW (4.47% )
Combined Cycle Power Plants, 12,533.60 MW
(48.76% )
Thermal Power Plants, 8,339.00 MW
(32.44% )
Hydroelectric Power Plants, 3,261.70 MW
(13% )
LoadLoad ForecastForecast
Load forecast, of which the MEG case (Peak Cut 500 MW) was projected based on average annual demand increases of 7.11%, 6.9% and 6.52% in the periods of 2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2015Peak demand of fiscal year 2015 was estimated at 40,478 MW
Total EGAT Generation RequirementTotal EGAT Generation Requirement
Moderate Economic Growth (MEG) load forecast
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Fiscal Year
Peak
(MW
)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Ene
rgy
(GW
h)
Peak
Energy
Fiscal Year Average Growth (% ) Peak Energy
2004-2008 7.11 7.71 2009-2013 6.90 6.75 2017-2015 6.52 6.42
Total EGAT Generation RequirementTotal EGAT Generation RequirementCase : MEG (Peak Cut 500 MW)Case : MEG (Peak Cut 500 MW)
Peak EnergyIncrease Increase
Fiscal Year MW
MW % GWh
MW %
Load Factor
(%) Actual
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001 2002
2003
8,045.00
8,876.90
9,730.00
10,708.80
12,267.90
13,310.90
14,506.30
14,179.90
13,712.40
14,918.30
16,126.40 16,681.10
18,121.40
951.30
831.90
853.10
978.80
1,559.10
1,043.00
1,195.40
-326.40
-467.50
1,205.90
1,208.10 554.70
1,440.30
13.41
10.34
9.61
10.06
14.56
8.50
8.98
-2.25
-3.30
8.79
8.10 3.44
8.63
49,225.03
56,006.44
62,179.73
69,651.14
78,880.37
85,924.13
92,724.66
92,134.44
90,413.99
96,780.72
103,165.20 108,389.24
116,743.45
6,036.24
6,781.41
6,173.29
7,471.41
9,229.23
7,043.76
6,800.53
-590.22
-1,720.45
6,366.73
6,384.48 5,224.04
8,354.21
13.98
13.78
11.02
12.02
13.25
8.93
7.91
-0.64
-1.87
7.04
6.60 5.06
7.71
69.8
72.0
73.0
74.2
73.4
73.7
73.0
74.2
75.3
74.1
73.0 74.2
73.5
Average Growth 1992-2003
-
839.70
7.00
-
5,626.54
7.46
-
Total EGAT Generation Requirement Total EGAT Generation Requirement Case : MEG (Peak Cut 500 MW)Case : MEG (Peak Cut 500 MW)
Peak EnergyIncrease Increase
Fiscal Year MW
MW % GWh
MW %
Load Factor
(%) Forecast
2004 2005
2006
2007
2008
19,600.00 21,143.00
22,238.00
23,844.00
25,548.00
1,478.60 1,543.00
1,095.00
1,606.00
1,704.00
8.16 7.87
5.18
7.22
7.15
126,811.00 136,784.00
147,656.00
158,211.00
169,279.00
10,067.55 9,973.00
10,872.00
10,555.00
11,068.00
8.62 7.86
7.95
7.15
7.00
73.9 73.9
75.8
75.7
75.6
2009 2010
2011
2012
2013
27,352.00 29,308.00
31,344.00
33,445.00
35,673.00
1,804.00 1,956.00
2,036.00
2,101.00
2,228.00
7.06 7.15
6.95
6.70
6.66
180,941.00 193,529.00
206,673.00
220,252.00
234,671.00
11,662.00 12,588.00
13,144.00
13,579.00
14,419.00
6.89 6.96
6.79
6.57
6.55
75.5 75.4
75.3
75.2
75.1
2014 2015
38,015.00 40,478.00
2,342.00 2,463.00
6.57 6.48
249,842.00 265,787.00
15,171.00 15,945.00
6.46 6.38
75.0 75.0
Average Growth
2004-2008 2009-2013
2014-2015
- -
-
1,485.32 2,025.00
2,402.50
7.11 6.90
6.52
- -
-
10,507.11 13,078.40
15,558.00
7.71 6.75
6.42
- -
-
List of Projects for PDP 2004 List of Projects for PDP 2004 (Ongoing Project)(Ongoing Project)
Power Plants Fuel Type 2/ Capacity 3/ (MW)
Total Capacity
(MW)
Scheduled Commissioning
Date
Krabi TH #1
Lan Krabu GT(Moved from Nong Chok)
Lam Takhong Pumped Storage # 1-2
IPP (BLCP Power Co.,Ltd. : Rayong) # 1-2
IPP (Gulf Power Generation Co.,Ltd.)1/
IPP (Ratchburi Power Co.,Ltd.) # 1-2
Purchase from Lao PDR (Nam Theun 2)
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Gas
Hydro
340
122
2 X 250
2 X 673.25
700
2 X 700
920
340
122
500
1,346.5
700
1,400
920
Feb. 2004
Apr. 2004
Jun. 2004
Oct.2006 - Feb.2007
Mar. 2008
Mar.2008 - Jun.2008
Nov. 2009
Power Development Plan for EGAT SystemPower Development Plan for EGAT System
Total 5,328.5 MWTotal 5,328.5 MW
Power Plants Fuel Type 2/ Capacity 3/ (MW)
Total Capacity
(MW)
Scheduled Commissioning
Date
SPP (Phase II : Renewable)
Renovated Hydro Power Plants
SPP (Phase I)
IPP (Gulf Power Generation Co.,Ltd.
Additional)
Song Khla CC # 1
South Bangkok CC # 3
North Bangkok CC # 1
Bang Pakong CC # 5
-
Hydro
-
-
Gas
Gas
Gas
Gas
151.1
(124.7)
60
700
700
700
700
700
151.1
(124.7)
60
700
700
700
700
700
2004 – 2007
2006 – 2008
Jan. 2007
Mar. 2007
Mar. 2008
Mar. 2009
Mar. 2009
Mar. 2010
New Capacity + RPS
New Capacity + RPS
New Capacity + RPS
New Capacity + RPS
New Capacity + RPS
-
-
-
-
-
4 X 700 + 140
3 X 700 + 105
3 X 700 + 105
4 X 700 + 140
4 X 700 + 140
2,940
2,205
2,205
2,940
2,940
Mar. 2011
Mar. 2012
Mar. 2013
Mar. 2014
Mar. 2015
Existing Capacity as of December 2003 25,363.0 MW
Total Added Capacity 4/ 22,444.6 MW
Total Retired Capacity -475.0 MW
Grand Total Installed Capacity at the end of 2015 47,332.6 MW
List of Projects for PDP 2004 List of Projects for PDP 2004 (Future Project)(Future Project)
Total 18 Unit,Total 18 Unit,New Capacity 12,600 MWNew Capacity 12,600 MWRPS 630 MWRPS 630 MW
Total 3,711.1 MWTotal 3,711.1 MW
PDP 2004 ChartPDP 2004 Chart
BLCP 1,346.5 MW
New Capacity 12,600 MW
New Capacity(83,958 GWh)
31.6%
Natural Gas(131,295 GWh)
49.4%
Hydro(11,981 GWh)
4.5%
Renewable(SPP+RPS)(5,175 GWh)
2.0% Heavy Oil(1,613 GWh)
0.6%Lignite
(17,251 GWh)6.5%
Imported Coal(12,378 GWh)
4.6%
Others(2,135 GWh)
0.8%
End of Year 2015End of Year 2015Total installed capacity = 47,333 MWTotal installed capacity = 47,333 MW
Total Energy Generation = 265,787 Total Energy Generation = 265,787 GWhGWh
BLCP ProjectBLCP Project(1,346.5 MW)(1,346.5 MW)
Mae Mae MohMoh Power Plant Power Plant (2,400 MW)(2,400 MW)
3. Energy Security and Policy 3. Energy Security and Policy
To develop 18 units of new power stations (12,600 MW in total To develop 18 units of new power stations (12,600 MW in total generating capacity) which natural gas is preliminarily assumed generating capacity) which natural gas is preliminarily assumed as fuel, to be on line during 2011as fuel, to be on line during 2011--20152015
If the future gas price should become too volatile in the futureIf the future gas price should become too volatile in the futureor there is going to be too much gasor there is going to be too much gas--based generation in the based generation in the system which would be a threat to the system operation and system which would be a threat to the system operation and electricity tariff, EGAT would seek other alternatives such as electricity tariff, EGAT would seek other alternatives such as imported coal or hydropower in the neighboring countries as imported coal or hydropower in the neighboring countries as competitive energy sources competitive energy sources
more than 50% of power generation in Asia is coalmore than 50% of power generation in Asia is coal--firedfired
Source : IEEJ Asia/World Energy Outlook, March 2004
ThailandThailand’’s reliance on coals reliance on coal--fired power is low fired power is low
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020
China India Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Japan Korea Taiwan
Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Other Renewable
indigenous coal resourceindigenous coal resource lesslessmoremore
Source : IEEJ Asia/World Energy Outlook, March 2004
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000MW
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fiscal Year
New Capacity Renewable Energy - RPS EGAT - TNB Renewable Energy - SPP Gas Turbine and Diesel Combined Cycle Thermal Hydroelectric
There is potential for more coalThere is potential for more coal--fired fired IPPsIPPs logerloger termterm
New Capacity
4. Coal Supply and Demand 4. Coal Supply and Demand
Reserve of coal was estimated around 1,354 million tons in northern part of ThailandHighest coal reserve is 1,140 million tons in mae moh mine, lampang provinceMost of coal mines in Thailand are located in the northCoal producers have been set into 2 groups. first group from Mae Moh of EGAT. other group from various private companieUndeveloped resource more than 801 million tons of measured coal reserve and indicated coal reserve 804 million tons. The biggest one is in saba yoi basin with 349 million tons of measured coalNew coal mines difficult to be develop due to NGO intervention
Coal Production Area in ThailandCoal Production Area in Thailand Coal Potential Area in Thailand Coal Potential Area in Thailand
Mae Moh mine Wiang Haeng basin
Saba Yoi basin
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1/ Producer
Quantity % Quantity % Quantity % Quantity % Quantity %
EGAT 12.85 78.6 15.70 79.0 14.95 76.8 15.42 85.8 12.43 82.3
Private Company 3.51 21.4 4.18 21.0 4.51 23.2 2.56 14.2 2.67 17.7
Total 16.36 100 19.88 100 19.46 100 17.98 100 15.10 100
Unit : Million Ton
Note: 1/ January-September 2004
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Electricity 13.42 14.13 15.32 15.03 15.60
Cement 3.82 2.54 2.82 3.27 1.65
Paper 0.50 0.31 0.03 0.64 0.52
Fiber 0.32 0.24 0.05 0.21 0.24
Lime 0.03 0.04 0.43 0.10 0.06
Others 0.38 0.65 0.45 0.13
Total 18.47 17.64 19.50 19.59 18.20
Uses of Domestic Coals in Thailand Uses of Domestic Coals in Thailand Unit : Million Ton
Coal Production in ThailandCoal Production in Thailand
Year Country
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1/
China 0.20 0.13 0.190 0.33 0.13 0.16
Indonesia 2.27 2.63 3.12 3.74 5.66 3.14
Lao 0.18 0.15 0.21 0.14 0.22 0.23
Myanmar 0.07 0.41 0.66 0.64 0.90 0.91
Vietnam 0.47 0.70 0.73 0.74 0.95 0.56
Others 0.04 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01
Total 3.23 4.17 4.94 5.60 7.87 5.01
Imported coal to Thailand classified by countriesImported coal to Thailand classified by countries
Unit : Million TonUnit : Million Ton
NoteNote: : 1/1/ JanuaryJanuary--September 2004 September 2004
Fuel Consumption for Power Generation (%)Fuel Consumption for Power Generation (%)
Recommend Plan Fuel Type
2003 2004 2010 2015 Hydro 8.7 6.0 6.1 4.5
Natural Gas 71.6 69.2 75.1 49.4
Heavy Oil 1.8 8.4 1.5 0.6
Diesel 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2
Lignite 14.7 12.7 8.9 6.5
Imported Coal 2.2 1.9 6.4 4.6
Renewable Energy (Existing) 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7
EGAT-TNB HVDC Link 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.6
Renewable Energy (RPS) 1/ - - - 1.3
New Capacity - - - 31.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Coal Consumption
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Domestic Coal 15.90 15.94 15.90 15.90 15.90
Mae Moh Power Plants 15.90 15.94 15.90 15.90 15.90
Imported Coal 8.16 14.32 19.60 25.84 32.91
IPP (BLCP) SPPs 1/
3.40 1.0
3.41 1.0
3.40 1.0
3.40 1.0
3.40 1.0
New Capacity 2/ 3.76 9.91 15.20 21.44 28.51
Total Coal Consumption 24.06 30.26 35.50 41.74 44.41
Coal consumption for coal-fired during 2011-2015
Unit : Million TonUnit : Million Ton
Note : 1/ Only coal usage of SPPs for EGAT’s electricity purchase2/ New Capacity (12,600 MW) is coal-fired power generation
5. Environment Responsibility 5. Environment Responsibility
EGAT control Mae Moh power plant’s generating process to reduce the SO2 emissions to be within environmental standard and regulationsInstallation FGD system on Mae Moh power plant Unit 4 - 13, retired Mae Moh power plant Unit 1 – 3All generating facilities have been high-efficiency Electrostatic Precipitator with 99% of lignite fly ash trapping capacityInstallation of a network of air quality monitoring stations covering the areas of Mae Moh district and nearby areas with relevant risksReal-time air quality monitoring system measure concentrations of emissions from the power plant stacks
In 2003, SO2 emissions from Mae Moh power plant averaged at only 2-3 tonnes per hour, well below the regulatory standard limit of 11 tonnes per hour, while the average hourly concentration level in the ambient air was under 780 micrograms per cubic metre
6. Conclusions6. Conclusions
Presently the energy-mix for power generation in Thailand is over-dependent on gas. Up to year 2006–2007, there will be coal-fired power stations of BLCP Project (IPPs) coming on stream with a total capacity 1,346.5 MWIn long term (2010-2015), if the future gas price is unpredictable or the gas consumption is excessively too high, EGAT seek other alternatives such as imported coal or hydropower in the neighboring countries as the generation optionEnvironment impact and social perception on coal will play a dramatic role in power projects.Public acceptance can be improved when the operation of existing coal-fired power plants can be shape up good images of the plants and a communication plan can be properly performed for new per project
Clean Coal Technology have to be developed to acceptable level and have to acknowledge the publish to realize how clean the coal is in the clean coal combustion technologies. CCT is expected to reduce the negative environmental impact of power generationThere should be an organization or institution to acknowledge the publish to realize how clean the coal is in CCT. Otherwise demand of coal especially for power generation will be dramatically reduced due to public awareness and perception.New coal mines in Thailand tends to be difficult to develop due to NGO intervention. This is the broader opportunity for import coal to fulfill future demand of the countryBenefit from increased coal utilization are set to encourage andprovide opportunities for existing and new entrepreneurs, both local and foreign
Thank YouThank You
Thailand Coal Demand for Power Generation in 2004 - 2015
Viroj Sivavong Nattinee Limkitisupasin Chief-Coal Management Department Administrative Officer
Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), Thailand ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Introduction After the country has recovered from the economic crisis, the electricity consumption has grown rapidly as a result of an abrupt improvement in all economic sectors. The progress has also been expected to last for a couple of year and that the electricity demand will be growing in the same fashion. For the year 2004, the Thai economy is projected to expand further at a rate similar to that of the preceding year. The Government’s policies of economic stimulating measures should be able to drive up consumption and investment continuously, despite a few unfavorable external factors such as unstable world economies, fluctuating oil prices and concerns over persisting terrorism. According to the latest projection prepared by the Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee in January 2004, the country’s electricity demand and energy generation requirement for the year 2004 will grow by 6.65% and 6.34%, in the moderate economic growth scenario. Therefore, EGAT formulate a new PDP which was dubbed the ‘PDP 2004’, base on the forecast adjusted by EGAT with respect to the January 2004 forecast. Coal plays an important role in power generation and other industries. The trend of coal consumption in Thailand has show slightly increased although all new development projects as fuel encounter environmentally and difficulty progressing the project. Two coal-fired power stations of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) have been postponed and changed fuel type to gas. Even such environmentally and difficulty processing of the coal project, policy have been given to use coal for power generation as much as possible because of fuel diversification, security of supply and relatively low fuel cost. To encourage the use of coal in Thailand, a good understanding of how environmental friendly the current clean coal technology is needed to be acknowledged to all the concerned sector. This paper has a purpose to analyze the role of coal on Thailand energy security. Of course, coal does not help directly improve energy security. But, through reducing gas dependency, coal contributes to establish more stable energy supply system.
2. Energy Supply and Demand
2.1 Present Status
The highest demand for fiscal year 2004 reached 19,325.8 MW on 30 March 2004. This new record was 1,204.4 MW (6.65%) up from the peak demand of the last fiscal year which was registered on 7 May 2003 to hit 18,121.4 MW. Meanwhile, the total installed capacity of the system is 25,705.2 MW.
As of March 2004, the total generating capacity of Thailand was 25,705.2 MW consisting of 3,261.7 MW (12.7%) hydroelectric power plants, 8,339.0 MW (32.4%) thermal power plants, 12,533.6 MW (48.7%) combined cycle power plants, 1,148.0 MW (4.5%) gas turbine and diesel power plants, 122.9 MW (0.5%) renewable energy and 300 MW (1.2%) EGAT – TNB HVDC link. Of this amount, 15,150.8 MW (58.9%) was owned and operated by EGAT while 10,554.4 MW (41.1%) was purchased from private sectors and neighboring countries.
2.2 Load Forecast
The actual peak demand of fiscal year 2003 was 18,121.4 MW which was 278.4 MW over the forecast that The Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee (TLFS) announced in August 2003 (17,843 MW). Coupled with the Government’s measures to boost the country’s economy, it is likely that the electricity demand after 2003 will increase at a higher rate than earlier expected. The TLFS, therefore, issued a new load forecast in January 2004, of which the Moderate Economic Growth (MEG) case was projected based on average annual demand increases of 7.5%, 6.8% and 6.4% in the periods of 2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2015, respectively. The maximum demand of fiscal year 2015 was estimated at 40,978 MW as shown in Table 1.
Table 1 : Total EGAT Generation Requirement
Peak Energy Increase Increase
Fiscal Year MW
MW % GWh
MW %
Load Factor
(%) Actual
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
8,045.00
8,876.90
9,730.00
10,708.80
12,267.90
13,310.90
14,506.30
14,179.90
13,712.40
14,918.30
16,126.40
16,681.10
18,121.40
951.30
831.90
853.10
978.80
1,559.10
1,043.00
1,195.40
-326.40
-467.50
1,205.90
1,208.10
554.70
1,440.30
13.41
10.34
9.61
10.06
14.56
8.50
8.98
-2.25
-3.30
8.79
8.10
3.44
8.63
49,225.03
56,006.44
62,179.73
69,651.14
78,880.37
85,924.13
92,724.66
92,134.44
90,413.99
96,780.72
103,165.20
108,389.24
116,743.45
6,036.24
6,781.41
6,173.29
7,471.41
9,229.23
7,043.76
6,800.53
-590.22
-1,720.45
6,366.73
6,384.48
5,224.04
8,354.21
13.98
13.78
11.02
12.02
13.25
8.93
7.91
-0.64
-1.87
7.04
6.60
5.06
7.71
69.8
72.0
73.0
74.2
73.4
73.7
73.0
74.2
75.3
74.1
73.0
74.2
73.5
Average Growth 1992-2003
-
839.70
7.00
-
5,626.54
7.46
-
Forecast 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
19,600.00
21,143.00
22,238.00
23,844.00
25,548.00
1,478.60
1,543.00
1,095.00
1,606.00
1,704.00
8.16
7.87
5.18
7.22
7.15
126,811.00
136,784.00
147,656.00
158,211.00
169,279.00
10,067.55
9,973.00
10,872.00
10,555.00
11,068.00
8.62
7.86
7.95
7.15
7.00
73.9
73.9
75.8
75.7
75.6
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
27,352.00
29,308.00
31,344.00
33,445.00
35,673.00
1,804.00
1,956.00
2,036.00
2,101.00
2,228.00
7.06
7.15
6.95
6.70
6.66
180,941.00
193,529.00
206,673.00
220,252.00
234,671.00
11,662.00
12,588.00
13,144.00
13,579.00
14,419.00
6.89
6.96
6.79
6.57
6.55
75.5
75.4
75.3
75.2
75.1
2014
2015
38,015.00
40,478.00
2,342.00
2,463.00
6.57
6.48
249,842.00
265,787.00
15,171.00
15,945.00
6.46
6.38
75.0
75.0
Average Growth 2004-2008
2009-2013
2014-2015
-
-
-
1,485.32
2,025.00
2,402.50
7.11
6.90
6.52
-
-
-
10,507.11
13,078.40
15,558.00
7.71
6.75
6.42
-
-
-
Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee April 2004
2.3 The Power Development Plan (PDP 2004) for the EGAT System To obtain the least cost solution as the final result, EGAT has examined a number of alternative generate under the allowable technical and economic constrains. The main features of the PDP 2004 are as follows. 2.3.1) To develop 18 units of new power stations (12,600 MW in total generating capacity) which natural gas is preliminarily assumed as fuel, to be on line during 2011 - 2015. Nevertheless, if the future gas price should become too volatile in the future or there is going to be too much gas-based generation in the system which would be a threat to the system operation and electricity tariff, EGAT would seek other alternatives such as imported coal or hydropower in the neighboring countries as competitive energy sources. It is recommendable that EGAT be granted the right to construct half of the total capacity additions at the cost which is competitive with the private sector. This is to guarantee that the electricity price will be easily regulated and monitored which would in turn create fairness to both the general public and the industry. 2.3.2) To purchase an addition of 700 MW electricity from Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. by March 2007. 2.3.3) A 700 MW combined cycle power plant in Songkhla Province will be connected to the grid by 2008 to serve the demand in the Southern region. 2.3.4) To construct new combined cycle blocks at the following sites, i.e., North Bangkok, South Bangkok and Bang Pakong for commissioning by 2009, 2009 and 2010, respectively. The plant capacity could be either 700 or 800 MW depending on the market supply and technology development at the time of bidding. 2.3.5 The power import from Nam Theun 2 Hydro Power Plant will be available to the EGAT’s system in 2009. 2.3.6 To renovate hydro power plats which have been in operation for a long time, especially at Ubon Ratana Dam, Sirindhorn Dam, Chulabhorn Dam, Nam Phung Dam and Kang Kachan Dam. 2.3.7 To include 630 MW of renewable energy during 2011 - 2015 to comply with the strategy on energy. The strategy on energy will require 5 % of the future capacity (from 2011 onwards) to be generated with renewable energy (Renewable Portfolio Standard – RPS). List of projects with their commissioning dates are shown in Table 2
Table 2 : List of Projects for PDP 2004 (Year 2004-2015)
Power Plants Fuel Type 2/ Capacity 3/ (MW)
Total Capacity
(MW)
Scheduled Commissioning
Date
Ong
oing
Pro
ject
Krabi TH #1
Lan Krabu GT(Moved from Nong Chok)
Lam Takhong Pumped Storage # 1-2
IPP (BLCP Power Co.,Ltd. : Rayong) # 1-2
IPP (Gulf Power Generation Co.,Ltd.)1/
IPP (Ratchburi Power Co.,Ltd.) # 1-2
Purchase from Lao PDR (Nam Theun 2)
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Gas
Hydro
340
122
2 X 250
2 X 673.25
700
2 X 700
920
340
122
500
1,346.5
700
1,400
920
Feb. 2004
Apr. 2004
Jun. 2004
Oct.2006 - Feb.2007
Mar. 2008
Mar.2008 - Jun.2008
Nov. 2009
SPP (Phase II : Renewable)
Renovated Hydro Power Plants
SPP (Phase I)
IPP (Gulf Power Generation Co.,Ltd. Additional)
Song Khla CC # 1
South Bangkok CC # 3
North Bangkok CC # 1
Bang Pakong CC # 5
-
Hydro
-
-
Gas
Gas
Gas
Gas
151.1
(124.7)
60
700
700
700
700
700
151.1
(124.7)
60
700
700
700
700
700
2004 – 2007
2006 – 2008
Jan. 2007
Mar. 2007
Mar. 2008
Mar. 2009
Mar. 2009
Mar. 2010
New Capacity + RPS
New Capacity + RPS
New Capacity + RPS
New Capacity + RPS
New Capacity + RPS
-
-
-
-
-
4 X 700 + 140
3 X 700 + 105
3 X 700 + 105
4 X 700 + 140
4 X 700 + 140
2,940
2,205
2,205
2,940
2,940
Mar. 2011
Mar. 2012
Mar. 2013
Mar. 2014
Mar. 2015
Existing Capacity as of December 2003 25,363.0 MW
Total Added Capacity 4/ 22,444.6 MW
Total Retired Capacity -475.0 MW
Grand Total Installed Capacity at the end of 2015 47,332.6 MW
Note : 1/ Under negotiation
2/ Recommended fuel for new capacity is natural gas, while alternative fuel sources are imported coal and hydroelectric.
3/ The unit size of new capacity is initially assumed to be 700 MW. Hower, it can be changed to 800 MW, once the technology is commercially available.
4/ Addition of 175 MW renewable capacity during 2008-2010.
2.4 Projection of Future install capacity According to the PDP2004, net additional capacity of 22,444.6 MW (consisting of new power plants, RPS’s, SPP’s minus retired projects) during the interval of 2004 - 2015 will be installed into the national power system. Combined with the existing 25,442 MW installed capacity (as of December 2003), the national power system will possess the total installed capacity of 26,372 MW 37,443 MW and 47,332.6 MW at the end of 2006, 2011 and 2015 respectively.
At the end of 2015, the total generating capacity of Thailand was 47,332.6 MW consisting of 4,682.0 MW (9.9%) hydroelectric power plants, 9,211.0 MW (19.5%) thermal power plants, 18,458.0 MW (39.0%) combined cycle power plants, 1,027.0 MW (2.2%) gas turbine and diesel power plants, 426.0 MW (0.9%) renewable energy : SPP, 300.0 MW (0.6%) EGAT-TNB HVDC link, 630 MW (1.3%) renewable energy : RPS, and 12,600.0 MW (26.6%) New Capacity. (show details in figure 1-4)
Figure 1 : Present Status of Installed Capacity & Fuel Supply in 2003
Energy Generation in 2003 classified by Type of Fuel
Total Generation = 116,743 GWh.Installed Capacity = 25,422 MW.
O thers(150 GWh)
0.1%
Imported Coal(2,526 GWh)
2.2%Lignite
(17,134 GWh)14.7%
Heavy O il(2,150 GWh)
1.8%
Renewable(SPP)(1,103 GWh)
0.9%
Hydro(10,180 GWh)
8.7%
Natural Gas(83,500 GWh)
71.6%
Figure 2 : Project of Installed Capacity & Fuel Supply in 2006
Figure 3 : Projection of Installed Capacity & Fuel Supply in 2011
Energy Generation in 2006 classified by Type of FuelTotal Generation = 147,658 GWh.Installed Capacity = 26,372 MW.
Others(6,118 GWh)
4.2%Imported Coal(2,460 GWh)
1.7%Lignite(16,622 GWh)
11.3%Heavy Oil
(17,306 GWh)11.7%
Renewable(SPP)(1,179 GWh)
0.8%Hydro
(7,604 GWh) 5.1%
Natural Gas(96,369 GWh)
65.3%
Energy Generation in 2011 classified by Type of Fuel
Total Generation = 206,673 GWh.Installed Capacity =37,443 MW.
Others(2,190 GWh)
1.0%
Imported Coal(12,378 GWh)
6.0%Lignite
(17,315 GWh)8.4%
Heavy Oil(2,756 GWh)
1.3%
Renewable(SPP+RPS)(2,600 GWh)
1.3%Hydro
(12,057 GWh) 5.8%
Natural Gas(145,648GWh)
70.5%
New Capacity(11,728 GWh)
5.7%
Figure 4 : Projection of Installed Capacity & Fuel Supply in 2015
Energy Generation in 2015 classified by Type of Fuel
Total Generation = 265,787 GWh.Installed Capacity =47,333 MW.
New Capacity(83,958 GWh)
31.6%
Natural Gas(131,295 GWh)
49.4%
Hydro(11,981 GWh)
4.5%
Renewable(SPP+RPS)(5,175 GWh)
2.0% Heavy Oil(1,613 GWh)
0.6%Lignite
(17,251 GWh)6.5%
Imported Coal(12,378 GWh)
4.6%
Others(2,135 GWh)
0.8%
3. Energy Security and Policy
The amount of fuel required for power generation as per PDP2004 classified by fuel types is summarized in Table 3.
Table 3 : Portion of Fuel Consumption in Electricity Generation
(Recommended Plan) Unit : %
PDP 2004 Fuel Type
2003 2004 2010 2015 Hydro - EGAT - Myanmar/Laos/China
8.7 6.6 2.1
6.0 4.0 2.0
6.1 2.4 3.7
4.5 1.7 2.8
Natural Gas - EGAT - EGCO - RATCH - IPP (Existing) - SPP - Gulf (Additional)
71.6 27.4 10.0 16.0 10.0 8.2 0.0
69.2 25.6 9.7
15.0 11.5 7.4 0.0
75.1 30.8 6.2
12.0 17.9 5.5 2.7
49.4 20.5 3.5 7.2
12.4 4.0 1.8
Heavy Oil - EGAT - RATCH
1.8 1.8 0.0
8.4 6.2 2.2
1.5 1.5 0.0
0.6 0.6 0.0
Diesel - EGAT - EGCO & IPP
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.2 0.1 0.1
0.3 0.3 0.0
0.2 0.2 0.0
Lignite 14.7 12.7 8.9 6.5
Imported Coal - IPP - SPP
2.2 0.0 2.2
1.9 0.0 1.9
6.4 5.0 1.4
4.6 3.6 1.0
Renewable Energy (Existing) 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7
EGAT-TNB HVDC Link 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.6
Renewable Energy (RPS) 1/ - - - 1.3
New Capacity - - - 31.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Note : 1/ Biomass, wind energy, solar, hydro and small scaled hydro power plants
4. Coal Supply and Demand 4.1 Overview
For decades in Thailand, coal, as an important alternative source of energy has been used for power generation. Coal was firstly mined in 1900 at Bang Poo Dam, in Krabi province, southern Thailand. But, the mine lasted within 7 years. History of coal mining in Thailand seemed to commence in 1955 when Mae Moh, the largest open-pit coal mine in SE Asia was started up by EGAT in Lampang province, northern Thailand. Coal of this mine has long-time served the nation for electricity generation.
Most coals in Thailand have been found in intermundane basins of Tertiary age. Due to containing commonly high in ash and moisture content, Thai coals are low in heating average. Based on ASTM classification, they are ranked as either lignite or sub-bituminous. Coals of many basins in Thailand are found to be high in sulfur content. Less than 1% of excavated coals in Thailand ranked anthracite. These coals have been found as thin, folded bed in complex carboniferous strata.
Now coal will still be a future fuel for Thailand, not only because of plenty available, but cheaply in cost. Even blames on its environmental adverse quality but with innovated technology dirty coal can be used friendly and safely plausible. 4.2 Coal Reserves
Since 1987 the Exploration & Assessment Project (CEP) set under Mineral Fuels Division, has assessed the coal resources throughout Thailand in more than 70 Tertiary basins. The works carried-out covered detailed-geology investigation, high-resolution seismic reflection survey and drilling with well logging. Most of coal is classified in Lignite - Sub bituminous and only few in Anthracite. Disclosed by mining data an ultimate remaining reserve of coal was estimated around 1,354 million tons in 16 districts in northern part of Thailand. The highest coal reserve is 1,140 million tons in Mae Moh Mine, Lampang Province. The details of coal reserves as shown in Table 4. 4.3 Undeveloped Resources
The explored data from the Department of Mineral Fuels (DMF) found 30 coal deposits, which were measured coal reserve 801 million tons and indicated coal reserve 804 million tons. For many years of exploration, DMF compiled and computed data as resource more than 801 million tons of measured coal reserve and indicated coal reserve 804 million tons. The biggest one is in Saba Yoi basin with 349 million tons of measured coal as shown in Table 5.
Table 4 : Coal Reserves of Thailand
Unit : Million Tons
Reserves Basin Name Location (Province)
Produced Remaining
Coal Rank Age Status
Northern Region
Mae Moh Lampang 235 905 Lignite-Sub bituminous Tertiary Active
Li Lamphun 35.88 NA Lignite-Bituminous Tertiary Active
Mae Than Lampang 17.47 18.34 Lignite-Bituminous Tertiary Active
Na Hong Chiang Mai 2.38 NA Lignite-Bituminous Tertiary Active
Chiang Muan Phayao 1.69 2.0 Sub bituminous-Bituminous Tertiary Active
Bo Luang Chiang Mai 1.27 NA Sub bituminous-Bituminous Tertiary Active
Mae Lamao Tak 1.25 0.38 Lignite-Bituminous Tertiary Active
Mae Teep Lampang 0.91 10.09 Lignite-Bituminous Tertiary Suspended
Mae Tun Tak 0.32 0.90 Lignite-Bituminous Tertiary Suspended
Central Region
Nong Ya Plong Phetchaburi 1.21 0.51 Lignite-Bituminous Tertiary Suspended
Southern Region
Krabi Krabi 9.20 110.80 Lignite-Sub bituminous Tertiary Active
Kantang Trang 0.10 NA Lignite Tertiary Suspended
Northeastern Region
Na Duang Loei 0.154 NA Anthracite Pre-Tertiary Suspended
Na Klang Udon Thani 0.006 NA Anthracite Pre-Tertiary Suspended
Total Reserve 306.84 1,048.02
Note : NA, data not available
Figure 7: Coal Production Area in Thailand
Table 5 : Coal Resources of Thailand
Unit : Million Tons
Basin Name Province Measured Indicated Coal Rank
1 Saba Yoi Songkhla 349.860 254.890 Lignite
2 Wiang Haeng Chiang Mai 93.019 34.124 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
3 Sin Pun Nakhon Si Thammarat 91.060 16.428 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
4 Ngao Lampang 48.186 50.690 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
5 Mae Ramat Tak 37.540 72.170 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
6 Chiang Muan Phayao 25.275 17.989 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
7 Mae Tha Lampang 22.487 55.065 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
8 Chae Hom-Muang Pan Lampang 16.186 41.047 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
9 Mae Lamao Tak 15.575 46.366 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
10 Khian Sa Surat Thani 15.411 40.000 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
11 Nong Phlub Prachuap Khirikhan 10.520 2.786 Lignite to Bituminous
12 Hang Chat Lampang 10.320 28.260 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
13 Phan Chiang Rai 9.810 26.610 Lignite
14 Wang Nua Lampang 9.012 21.160 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
15 Umphang-Pala Tha Tak 8.053 19.236 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
16 Bung Sam Phun Petchabun 6.850 NA Lignite to Sub-bituminous
17 Mae Chaem Chiang Mai 6.080 16.040 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
18 Serm Ngam Lampang 5.730 12.040 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
19 Nong Ya Plong Petchaburi 4.452 12.256 Lignite to Bituminous
20 Kantang Trang 3.420 10.260 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
21 Phob Phra Tak 2.330 7.040 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
22 Mae Chang Lampang 2.009 5.003 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
23 Mae Jai Phayao 1.790 5.360 Lignite
24 Wichian Buri Petchabun 1.650 2.620 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
25 Phrae Phrae 1.612 0.403 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
26 Na Sai Lamphun 1.310 5.270 Lignite
27 Fang Chiang Mai 1.120 NA Lignite to Sub-bituminous
28 San Pa Tong Chiang Mai 0.500 NA Lignite to Sub-bituminous
29 Bo Salee Chiang Mai 0.432 0.667 Sub-bituminous
30 Pai Mae Hong Son 0.174 0.366 Lignite to Sub-bituminous
Total 801.773 804.146
Note : NA, data not available Measured coal refers to the amount in the radius of 200 m of an exploratory well.
Indicated coal refers to the amount in the adjacent annulus of 200-400 m apart.
Figure 8 : Coal Potential Area in Thailand
4.4 Coal Production
Most of coal mines in Thailand are located in the north. The types ranged from lignite to bituminous. Mainly the lignite produced from the mines are low in quality as well as in heating value, approximately 2,500 – 4,000 Kcal/Kg (GAR) with high quantity of sulphur, approximately 3-5%. Most of it were produced from Mae Moh mine for power generation at Mae Moh power plants. Apart from this, coal were produced from various private companies in Thailand with better quality of heating value approximately 2,800 – 4,500 Kcal/Kg (GAR) and low sulfur about 1-3%
At the present time the coal producers have been set into 2 groups. The first group is coal producers from Mae Moh of EGAT. As for the other group, the coal was produced from the mines that various private companies owned in Thailand for their clients in the industrial group (about 6-8 of them). The biggest private coal company in Thailand is Banpu Company followed by Lanna Resources Company and Siam Cement Company. Mostly the mine owned by Siam Cement produces coal for its own business. There are other small coal producers which are Chieng Muan Mine Company, Siam Carbon Company etc. At the moment the coal reserves in various areas of these coal companies are low in quantity. A prediction in this matter indicated that the production of coal will be able to operate not longer than the next 2-3 years. The amount of coal production in Thailand separated by group of producer is shown in Table 6.
Table 6 : Coal Production during 1999-2004
Unit : Million Tons
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1/ Producer
Quantity % Quantity % Quantity % Quantity % Quantity % Quantity %
EGAT 12.02 70.4 12.85 78.6 15.70 79.0 14.95 76.8 15.42 85.8 12.43 82.3
Private Company 5.05 29.6 3.51 21.4 4.18 21.0 4.51 23.2 2.56 14.2 2.67 17.7
Total 17.07 100 16.36 100 19.88 100 19.46 100 17.98 100 15.10 100
Note: 1/ January-September 2004
4.5 Coal Utilization
4.5.1) Domestic Coal
Main use of coal in Thailand is electricity generation. Long as decades, indigenous coal has been fired at the EGAT’s mine-mouth power plants. Coal was produced around 18 million tons in 2003 and domestically uses about 18.2 million tons per year, for power generaion 85.7 %, cement industry 9.1 % paper industry 2.6 % and others 2.7 %, respectively.
Table 7 : Uses of Domestic Coals in Thailand during 1999-2004
Unit : million tons
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Electricity 13.42 14.13 15.32 15.03 15.60
Cement 3.82 2.54 2.82 3.27 1.65
Paper 0.50 0.31 0.03 0.64 0.52
Fiber 0.32 0.24 0.05 0.21 0.24
Lime 0.03 0.04 0.43 0.10 0.06
Others 0.38 0.65 0.45 0.13
Total 18.47 17.64 19.50 19.59 18.20
4.5.2) Imported Coal
Due to lower calorific value of domestic coal, higher calorific coal from outside is thus necessarily imported every year. Thailand imported coal in 2003 at volume of 7.87 million tons, or 28.8 % higher than of 2002. This exceeding 7 million tons record was probably due to the economic recovery. Most of the import was primarily used in cement industry. Because of containing higher calorific, imported bituminous and other coals as fuels were suitable to blend with Thai coal for cement manufacturing. Bituminous was, thus, the top of the import list and remarkably increased recently.
New coal mines in Thailand tends to be difficult to develop due to NGO intervention. The main reason of no coal mine refers to possible environmental adverse. This is the broader opportunity for import coal to fulfill future demand of the country.
According to the statistics of imported coal in the past 6 years (1999-2004), the countries which mainly supplied coal for Thailand for various types of industries are Indonesia, Lao, Myanmar and Vietnam. Apparently, these countries have their share of coal market in Thailand more than 95% of the grand total of imported coal in each year (especially Indonesia, this country holds largest coal market share of 60-75% in Thailand). The rest of the shares less than 5% of imported coal is from China and briquettes from Taiwan, Japan etc.
The types of imported coal are anthracite, bituminous and coke & semi coke. The coal imported in the early years was over 90% bituminous. As for other types of coal which are anthracite sub-bituminous and coke, in the past couples of years, the total quantity imported was less than 10%. Then the ratio of imported bituminous has become lower gradually at the average of 8-10%of the total quantity imported. At the same time the demand of imported sub-bituminous would increase at the average of ratio close to the lowered bituminous. This is the cause of the increase in demand of sub-bituminous in those cement industrial group in Thailand in the recent years. These sub-bituminous were imported from Lao and Myanmar with much more lower price than bituminous. The import of anthracite from Vietnam is tend to increase consecutively due to the increase of usage for NPS (They are power plants in SPP’s group). Moreover some of anthracite has also been use as a try for cement manufacturing. As for the imported coke from China Taiwan and Japan to be used in steel Industry is tend to be continuously decreased in demand since 2541, the statistics according to this matter is shown in Table 8 and Table 9.
Table 8 : Import of Coal to Thailand during 1999-2004 Classified by Countries
Unit : Million Tons
Year Country
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1/
China 0.20 0.13 0.190 0.33 0.13 0.16
Indonesia 2.27 2.63 3.12 3.74 5.66 3.14
Lao 0.18 0.15 0.21 0.14 0.22 0.23
Myanmar 0.07 0.41 0.66 0.64 0.90 0.91
Vietnam 0.47 0.70 0.73 0.74 0.95 0.56
Others 0.04 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01
Total 3.23 4.17 4.94 5.60 7.87 5.01
Note: 1/ January-September 2004
Table 9 : Import of Coal to Thailand during 1999-2004 Classified by Type of Coal
Unit :Million Tons
Year Coal Type
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1/
Anthracite 0.11 0.17 0.23 0.58 0.53 0.23
Bituminous 2.22 2.39 2.80 3.57 5.35 2.92
Coke& Semi-Coke 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.05
Sub-bitumonous 0.82 1.54 1.85 1.38 1.93 1.81
Total 3.23 4.17 4.94 5.60 7.87 5.01
Note: 1/ January-September 2004 4.6) Current Coal Demand for Electricity Generation
At present the most of the coal demand in Thailand is mainly for power generating industry with high ratio of 70-75% of the total coal demand in Thailand (this total demand is from coal production Thailand which also included the import).The lower rate of coal demand is in cement industry in the ratio of 20-25% and the rest about 5% of the total coal demand is for other smaller industries respectively.
The situation in coal demand for power generating industry between the resources in Thailand and the imported coal will be at the ratio of 90 : 10. This ratio is only for the use of Mae Moh power plants and for the SPPs. But in the future, if the IPPs are able to operate power generation as planned and the coal demand meets the expected plan, the ratio of coal usage will then become 70 : 30 (this is due to the total usage of imported coal of the IPPs)
The estimation of coal demand for power generating is shown in table 10.
Table 10 : Coal Consumption for Power Generation in Thailand
Producer Capacity
(MW)
Coal Usage (Million Tonnes)
Coal Sources
EGAT 2,400 15-16 Domestic Coal (Lignite) from Mae Moh Mine, Lampang
IPP (BLCP) 1/ 1,346.5 (2 unit@ 673.25)
3.4 Imported Coal (bituminous) from Indonesia, Australia
SPPs 868.2 2.1 Imported Coal - 95% (anthracite & bituminous-sub bituminous from Vietnam, Indonesia etc.)
Domestic coal - 5% (sub-bituminous from private coal producer)
Total 4,614.7 20.5-21.5 - Note : 1/ Ongoing project (Schedule commissioning in 2007) 4.7) Projection of Coal Demand for New Power Plants in 2011-2015
In the long term (2010 onwards), the major fuel indicated in PDP2004 is natural gas. A portion of 76.1% of the total energy generation in 2010 will be from natural gas, and it will go up to 81.0% in 2015. This proportion obviously dominates other fuel usage and implies that the country’s power supply fully depends on natural gas, which is contrary to the fuel diversify principle. This principle states that a system should not rely too much on one particular fuel to avoid instability of system reliability and electricity tariff.
However, if the future gas price is unpredictable or the gas consumption is excessively too high, EGAT has devised an alternative PDP as a way out which reckons domestic coal-fired power plants and foreign hydroelectric power plants as the generation option. This leaves gas and coal to be the main fuel mix for power generation. The use of imported coal with the stable prices and abundant supply is complementary to domestic gas, as it would optimize the development and usage of domestic gas resources. Policies and strategies have been developed to ensure continuous supply of coal at competitive prices.
The amount of fuel required for power generation as per PDP2004 classified by fuel types is summarized in Table 11. And the amount of coal required for new power plants in 2011-2015 is forecasted in Table 12.
Table 11 : Portion of Fuel Consumption in Electricity Generation during 2011-2015
(Alternative Plan) Unit : %
PDP 2004 Fuel Type
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Hydro 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.5
Natural Gas 70.9 64.7 60.2 55.3 50.2
Heavy Oil 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6
Diesel 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Renewable Energy (Existing) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0. 7
EGAT-TNB HVDC Link 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Renewable Energy (RPS) 1/ 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3
Total 80.4 73.6 68.8 63.6 58.2
Coal Demand 1) Lignite 8.4 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.5
2) Imported Coal - IPP - SPP
6.0 4.7 1.3
5.6 4.4 1.2
5.3 4.1 1.2
5.0 3.9 1.1
4.7 3.7 1.0
3) New Capacity 2/ (Imported Coal)
5.2 12.9 18.5 24.5 30.6
Total (Imported Coal Consumption)
11.2 18.5 25.9 31.4 35.3
Total Coal Consumption (Domestic & Import)
19.6 26.4 31.2 36.4 41.8
Grand Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Note : 1/ Biomass, wind energy, solar, hydro and small scaled hydro power plants
2/ New capacities are coal-fired thermal power plants
The alternative plan of PDP 2004, the fuel for new power plants will be change from natural gas to imported coal. The portion of natural gas consumption for electricity generation in 2011 is 70.9% of the total energy, and it will decrease to 60% and 50% of the total energy generation in 2013 and 2015, respectively. In the other hand the portion of imported coal consumption will be increase 5.2% to 11.2% of the energy generation in 2011 and will go up rapidly to 25.9% and 35.3% in 2013 and 2015 respectively. And the use of fuel coal imported for new power plants planed are expected that the portion of imported coal will be highly increase. By the year 2011 imported coal will be increase 3.76 million tons to 8.1 million tons and dramatically expanded in year 2013 and 2015 to 19.6 million tons and 32.9 million tons respectively.
This fuel coal consumption is estimated by comparing with imported coal consumed by BLCP power plants. In practically, the quantity coal consumed for new power plants could be vary from estimated due to difference factors such a heating value, plant efficiency or even advance technology in the future.
Table 12 : Forecasted of Coal Consumption for Coal-fired thermal Power Plants during 2011-2015
Unit : Million Tons
Coal Consumption
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Domestic Coal 15.90 15.94 15.90 15.90 15.90
Mae Moh Power Plants 15.90 15.94 15.90 15.90 15.90
Imported Coal 8.16 14.32 19.60 25.84 32.91
IPP (BLCP) SPPs 1/
3.40 1.0
3.41 1.0
3.40 1.0
3.40 1.0
3.40 1.0
New Capacity 2/ 3.76 9.91 15.20 21.44 28.51
Total Coal Consumption (Domestic& Imported Coal)
24.06 30.26 35.50 41.74 44.41
Note : 1/ Only coal usage of SPPs for EGAT’s electricity purchase. 2/ Forecasted from the imported coal usage of BLCP.
5. Environment Responsibility
To maintain its leadership of a respected organization and value-based corporate governance, EGAT gives a very high priority to continual improvement of environmental management to prevent and control environmental impacts and social repercussions caused by its operations and activities. The improvement of EGAT’s environmental management in every step of its operations - power development, generation, transmission and other associated activities, to the internationally accepted standards, provides assurance that EGAT can continue to operate with high efficiency and responsibility. In addition, EGAT has encouraged public participation process by which the public and potentially affected stakeholders can meaningfully participate in EGAT’s processes of environmental implementation and monitoring programme aimed to prevent and control adverse environmental impacts. EGAT also strives for the fair sharing of mutually beneficial outcomes from the project development through community development and quality of life improvement in a sustainable manner.
EGAT and all agencies concerned joined by implementing measures to control Mae Moh power plant’s generating process to reduce the SO2 emissions to be within environmental standard and regulations. The control measures included the installation of the flue gas desulfurization system on Mae Moh power plant Unit 4 - 13, retired Mae Moh power plant Unit 1 - 3, Installation of a network of air quality monitoring stations covering the areas of Mae Moh district and nearby areas with relevant risks, and putting in place the real-time air
quality monitoring system to measure concentrations of emissions from the power plant stacks. In 2003, SO2 emissions from Mae Moh power plant averaged at only 2 - 3 tonnes per hour, well below the regulatory standard limit of 11 tonnes per hour set for Mae Moh power plant, while the average hourly concentration level in the ambient air was under 780 micrograms per cubic metre.
In addition, EGAT has regularly implement measures to control dust from Mae Moh power plant and mine complex. All generating facilities have been equipped with high-efficiency electrostatic precipitator with 99% of lignite fly ash trapping capacity. The collected fly ash has been sold to private companies for various users. In 2003, a total of 1.5 million tonnes of lignite fly ash were sold, reflecting EGAT’s successful researches on the utilization of lignite fly ash which have led to wide-spread use of lignite by-products for several activities. Other dust control measures included the utilization of the conveyor belt system for handling the overburden, lignite, fly ash and gypsum, as well as the moisture control for lignite, fly ash and gypsum. As a result, the volumes of dust in the vicinity decreased markedly. 6. Conclusions
6.1 Presently the energy-mix for power generation in Thailand is over-dependent on gas. To supplement gas, coal has been identified as a viable additional and alternative fuel source for the future. UP to the year 2006 – 2007, there will be coal-fired power stations of BLCP Project (IPPs) coming on stream with a total capacity of 1,346.5 MW and coal consumption of about 4 mtpa.
6.2 In the long term (2010 onwards), if the future gas price is unpredictable or the gas consumption is excessively too high, EGAT has devised an alternative PDP as a way out which reckons domestic coal-fired power plants as the generation option.
6.3 Public acceptance can be improved when the operation of existing coal-
fired power plants can be shape up good images of the plants and a communication plan can be properly performed for new per project.
6.4 The mandatory clean coal technology is expected to reduce the negative environmental impact of power generation. Combining energy efficiency efforts, conservation investments, continued fuel supply diversification, technology and capabilities are the challenges in ensuring the sustainability of coal utilization.
6.5 The energy development plans in Thailand aims at sustainable development through the integration of the 3E (economic development, environment protection and energy security). Coal if balanced into the energy mix will provide the strategy to balance between adequate, secure energy supplies, economic growth and protection of the environment.
6.6 New coal mines in Thailand tends to be difficult to develop due to NGO intervention. The main reason of no coal mine refers to possible environmental adverse. This is the broader opportunity for import coal to fulfill future demand of the country.
6.7 Coal is abundant and price-competitive, therefore, the outlook of coal in Thailand will still be relatively prosperous in the future.
6.8 The benefit from increased coal utilization are set to encourage and provideopportunities for existing and new entrepreneurs, both local and foreign.
…………………………………………………………..