Higher Education 11 (1982) 27-49 Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam - Printed in The Netherlands

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STUDENT EXPECTATIONS AND GRADUATE MARKET PERFORMANCE IN EGYPT

GEORGE PSACHAROPOULOS World Bank, Washington DC, U.S.A.

BIKAS SANYAL International Institute for Educational Planning, Paris, France

ABSTRACT

This is an investigation of a series of issues pertaining to higher education in Egypt based on a sample of nearly 2,000 students and 1,700 university graduates in 1978. The main theme of the article is a comparison of student expectations and actual labour market performance. The results indicate that the relative structure of economic rewards is consistent with the operation of the forces of supply and demand. In particular, students ' expectations of the labour market are in tune with the actual market conditions. The social demand for different fields of specialisation is closely linked to the expected economic rewards. A strong element of self-selection is in operation, many students fol- low highly undesirable subjects (such as agronomy) because of the availability of places. And as already documented in other studies, expected or actual unemployment following graduation is of extremely short duration.

I Introduction

Egypt is a country of special interest to the educational planner. The setting within which educational policy has been shaped in recent years includes the combination of the following, nearly unique, features (Hyde, 1978): first, rapid population growth, the net increase being of the order of one million persons a year. Second, high level of emigration, nearly one-fifth of the labour force working in neighbouring countries. Third, a political commitment of the Government to satisfy the social demand for education at all levels, the result being an increase in the number of universities from eight to thirteen in the five year period 1973 to 1978. Fourth, the employ- ment guarantee bs~ the state to all university graduates.

0018-1560[82/0000-0000/$02.75 �9 1982 Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company

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This article is an empirical investigation of a series of issues pertaining to higher education within the above country setting. The main theme is a comparison of student expectations and actual graduate performance in a market of guaranteed employment. The evidence is based on the individual records of nearly 2,000 higher education students and 1,700 university graduates in 1978 [ 1 ].

Section II gives a brief description of the sample. Section III presents a contrast between expected student earnings and actual graduate earnings. Section IV discusses issues related to graduate unemployment. Section V presents estimates of ex ante returns to education and relates them to the social preference of given subjects. The final section summarises the main findings. More detailed information from the two files is included in the Appendices.

II Sample Characteristics

Two cross-sectional random samples were drawn in 1978 by the Supreme Council of Universities in the Arab Republic of Egypt in collaboration with the International Institute for Educational Planning. The first sample covered university students (N = 1935) and the second file covered employed univer- sity graduates (N = 1712).

The questionnaire administered to the student body provided two kinds of information: (a) facts on the respondent's personal characteristics and family background, and (b) expectations according to the student's percep- tion of the labour market to be entered upon graduation. It also provided information on the student's self-assessed foregone earnings while at the university. The questionnaire administered to employees with university qualifications provided information on facts pertaining to the actual market performance of higher education graduates. One of the purposes of this article is to compare, to the extent possible, the students' perception of the labour market against the actual market facts.

Tables A.I and B.I in the Appendix present the means and standard deviations of some key variables that have been constructed for the purposes of this analysis. Tables A.II and B.II present selected zero-order correlations from the students' and graduates' files, respectively.

III On Expected Versus Actual Earnings

The higher education students were asked to state what their future earnings are likely to be at three points in time: upon graduation (Yo), and after being 5 years (Ys) and 10 years (Ylo) in their careers. Table I reports

TABLE I

Expected Earnings at Three Points in Time in the Student's Career (Students' File)

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Career point Mean monthly Reporting Missing cases earnings students (in EL) (N)

Initial, Y0 43 1759 176 After 5 years, Ys 75 1611 324 After 10 years, Y10 112 1531 404

Note: (Reporting students) + (Missing cases) = 1935 sample size.

the level of earnings at the three points in time and the increasing number of missing cases to this question the farther away the time horizon. Concentrating on those who reported future earnings, however, there, exists differential uncertainty between the two sexes. Table II documents a falling coefficient of variation, hence less uncertainty regarding future male earnings, but fluctuating uncertainty regarding female earnings. This phenomenon can be explained by the fact that males aim at a permanent career associated with a narrow band of possible earnings, whereas females are more uncertain towards their future career because of possible family commitments, especially with- drawal from the labour force because of children.

Table III presents selected means of actual current earnings from the graduates' file. Given the fact the mean age of the graduates is 33 years, the expected earnings are not unrealistic when compared to the actual ones. In fact, when one focuses 'on the relative structure of expected versus actual earnings, the student's perception of the labour market is extremely accurate. For example, the female-to-male earnings ratios from the two files compare as follows:

Actual female-to-male earnings ratio: 0.74 Expected female-to-male earnings ratio:

- initial earnings: 0.76 - after 5 years: 0.71 - after 10 years: 0.73

An effort was made to explain actual and expected earnings from the two respective files using a set of independent variables. Tables A.VII and B.IX in the Appendix report detailed results, whereas Table IV contains reduced earnings functions on a limited set of independent variables. The main find- ings of this analysis is that actual graduate earnings are more explicable rela-

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TABLE II

Expected Earnings by Sex and Coefficient of Variation at Three Career Points (Students' File)

Sex/career point Expected earnings Coefficient of variation (EL)

Males Initial earnings 47 1.23 After 5 years 84 1.08 After 10 years 126 0.99

Females Initial earnings 36 0.71 After 5 years 60 0.64 After 10 years 92 0.89

tive to e xpe c t e d s tuden t earnings (R 2 equal to 0.641 versus 0 .017, respec-

tively). This is because o f the greater unce r t a in ty sur rounding fu tu re earnings.

In spite o f the d i f fe ren t specif icat ion and d i f fe ren t meaning o f variables in the two files, the earnings func t ions r epo r t ed in Table IV capture the male

earnings advantage and the reduced earnings o f those actual ly e m p l o y e d or

p lanning to be e m p l o y e d in the publ ic relative to the private sector [2 ].

TABLE III

Actual Current Earnings by Selected Sample Characteristics (Graduates' File)

Characteristic Y

Sector of employment: - public - private

Sex" - males - females

Civil Status: - married - single

Father's monthly income: - below 5 EL - 6 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 3 0

- 3 1 - 5 0

- 5 1 +

48.9 73.6

54.5 40.1

56.0 40.2

40 43 46 47 48

Overall 50

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The coefficient on the years of higher education variable in the actual earnings function can be interpreted as the private rate of return to every extra completed year of schooling within higher education. The 3.2 per cent rate of return must be considered modest and could be related to the rapid expansion of higher education in Egypt over the last decade [3 ].

One special feature of this data set is that it contains direct information on the student's foregone earnings while at the university. The level of self- assessed foregone earnings is in line with other parameters in the sample. For example, the mean value of foregone earnings as perceived by the student body is EL 31 as against EL 43 expected initial earnings. The actual initial earnings of the older group of graduates is EL 22.

Student foregone earnings are a direct function of age, in exactly the same way as actual earnings (see Tables A.III and A.IV). Thus, those who completed their secondary school in 1970 perceive their foregone earnings as EL 37 against EL 27 for those who completed their secondary school in 1970.

TABLE IV

Actual versus Expected Earnings Functions

Variable Actual graduate Expected student earnings earnings Ln(Y) LN(Ys)

Constant 3.448 2.989 Male 0.130 0.314

(7.9) (4.07) Years of higher education 0.032

(4.2) Experience, EX 0.061

(18.5) EX 2 -0.0004

(3.6) Public sector employment -0.365** 0.265*

(11.2) (2.81) Private sector employment 0.344*

(3.22) Father's income 0.0015

(2.17) R 2 0.641 0.017

* The reference category is self-employment ** The reference category is private sector employment

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IV On Graduate "Unemployment"

The data base contains information on the expected and actual waiting time between graduation (or actually looking for a job) and finding a job. Both time dimensions in this respect are short, and extensively documented in other studies, hence we prefer to Use the term "search time" to describe this process rather than "unemployment" [4].

The mean actual waiting time from the graduates' file is ten months and this compares very well with the mean expected search time from the stu- dents' file which is just over one year. The distribution of search time is such that the vast majority of students or graduates expect to find or have actually found a job within one year after graduation (see Tables V and VI).

Waiting time to first job relates to several sample characteristics. Thus, the subject of medicine is associated with less actual and expected waiting time (see Tables A.VI and B.VIII). Also, expected waiting time is a declining function of family income, those from richer families expected to find a niche much sooner than the rest (see Table VII).

TABLE V

The Distribution of Actual Waiting Time to the First Job (Graduates' File)

Waiting time Per cent absorbed (cumulative)

0 - 6 months 50.4 1 year 72.6 2 years 91.7

TABLE VI

The Distribution of Expected Waiting Time to the First Job (Students' File)

Waiting time Number of Relative Cumulative (in years) students frequency frequency

(%) (%)

Less than one year 1,145 62.4 62.4 1 -2 years 426 23.2 85.7 2 - 3 years 171 9.3 95.0 over 3 years 92 5.0 100.0

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TABLE VII

Expected Waiting Time to First Job and Family Income (Students' File)

Waiting time Mean family income (EL/month)

Less than one year 105 1 - 2 years 100 2 - 3 years 96 over 3 years 83

Overall 102

Waiting time to the first job and later earnings are not independent. Those who expect to search longer anticipate permanently depressed wages later in their careers (see Table VIII). This observation is consistent with economic theory in that those who search longer gain less on-the-job training (experience) relative to others and this depresses their future earnings because of the reduced amount of human capital gained.

Also, self-assessed scholastic achievement correlates positively with expected earnings and negatively with waiting time, deafly the better per- formers project their superior position from school to society at large (see Table IX).

As in the case of expected earnings, an effort was made to explain actual and expected waiting times to first job (see Tables A.VII and B.IX).

Explanation of the dependent variable has been exceptionally low, especially in the case of students reflecting the greater uncertainty versus the actual waiting time of graduates. Table X reports reduced waiting functions where years of higher education for graduates and family income for students are negatively associated with waiting time.

TABLE VIII

Expected Salary by Waiting Time to First Job (Students' File) in EL

Waiting time Initial salary After 5 years After 10 years

Less than one year 46 82 121 1 -2 years 36 64 106 2 - 3 years 34 56 83 3 years + 39 50 91

Overall 42 73 111

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TABLE IX

Expected Initial Earnings and Waiting time to First Job by Self-Assessed College Performance (Students' File)

College performance Expected initial Expected waiting earnings time (EL~month) (in years)

Poor 41.2 1.67 Below average 59.0 1.25 Average 40.0 1.23 Above average 43.0 1.12 Excellent 48.0 1.04

TABLE X

Actual versus Expected Waiting Functions to First Job

Variable Actual graduate waiting (in months)

Expected student waiting (in years)

Constant 19.106 1.2,36 Male - 1.924 0.141

(3.3) (3.06) Years of higher education - 1.442

(5.3) Experience, EX -0 .712

(6.2) EX 2 0.019

(4.3) Public sector employment 2.75 O* * -0.045 *

(2.4) (0.80) Private sector employment -0.048*

(0.76) Father's income -0.0014

(3.23) R 2 0.082 0.016

* The reference category is self-employment ** The reference category is private sector employment

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V Expected Returns and the Field of Study

The unique information available on the students' self-assessed foregone earnings (YFoR) has been used to estimate individual ex ante rates of return (r) as perceived before entry to the labour market, using the formula [5 ]:

Yo -- YFOR

5. YFOR

Initial (Y0) earnings have been used for symmetry with the prices to which foregone earnings refer. Since the use of this approximate formula might have introduced an upward bias to the level of the expected returns to edu- cation, the following discussion focuses on the structure of the returns across sample characteristics.

Table XI reports mean expected rates of return by sex and field of study. Although the male advantage is not very pronounced, there exist considerable differences in expected returns between groups of students studying different disciplines. The subjects of architecture and medicine are associated with the highest expected returns and economics and social sciences with the least.

An effort was made to relate the structure of the expected returns to education by subject to the relative expansion of each subject and to its desirability from the point of view of social demand.

Table XII shows that the educational structure of the Egyptian labour force has changed drastically within a span of nine years, especially at the upper end of the educational spectrum. Certain subjects, however, have grown more relative to others, and one would expect relatively lower returns corresponding to disciplines that have produced more graduates relative to the rest. Table XIII documents the fact that this has indeed been the case, the highest growth corresponding to social science related fields and the slowest growth to engineering, law and medicine. This information compares well with the relative structure of the ex ante returns to education given in Table XI.

The questionnaire collected information on the desired field of study against the one in which the student is actually enrolled. This information was combined to estimate a desirability index of different subjects defined a s :

D = Desired - Actual

Actual

where "desired" and "actual" refer to the number of students wishing to

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TABLE XI

Expec ted Rates of Return by Selected Sample Characteristics (Students ' File)

Characterist ic Rate of return (%)

Males 1 5 . 4

Females 14.5 Field of s tudy:

- Medicine 1 7 . 2 - Vet. medicine 13.0 - Agronomy 15.3 - Commerce 13.3 - Economics and polit ics 11.0 - Sciences 14.9 - Social sciences 11.8 - Archi tec ture 20.3 - Fine arts 12.2

Overall 15.0

study a given subject, and actually being enrolled in a given subject, respec- tively. A positive sign of this index denotes a positive match towards the corresponding subject, whereas a negative sign denotes aversion.

Table XIV reports the pecking order of higher education fields of study according to their desirability. This pecking order is highly consistent with the ex ante returns to education reported above and the structure of expected future earnings. The most desirable subjects are architecture, chemistry and medicine, whereas the most undesirable one is agronomy.

TABLE XII

The Changing Distr ibut ion of the Labour Force by Educat ional Level, 1968 and 1977

Educat ional level 1968 1977 (%) (%)

Illiterates 60.9 52.6 Primary 30.8 30.7 Secondary 5.5 11.5 Universi ty 2.8 5.2

T o t a l 100.0 100.0

Source: based on Sanyal et al. (1979), chapter 3, Table 3.

TABLE XIII

The Relative Growth in the Number of Graduates, Selected Fields

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Field of specialisation Stock of Additional Percentage (1) graduates graduates* growth

1974 1975-77 (4) (2) (3)

Medicine 30,377 10,477 34 Dentistry 3,838 1,477 38 Pharmacy 8,557 3,207 37 Vet. medicine 5,137 1.983 39

Law 38,110 9,955 26 Engineering 45,318 12,763 28 Sciences 20,590 6,125 30 Agriculture 43,114 17,213 40 Commerce 69,272 41,557 60 Economics and politics 2,168 1,106 51 Arts 48,219 15,368 32 Education 16,614 14,571 88

* Sum of annual flow of graduates in 1975, 1976 and 1977 Source: Col. (2) from Sanyal et al. (1979), Chapter 4, Table 28.

Col. (3) Sanyal et al., Table 26. Col. (4) : (Col. (3): Col. (2)) 100.

VI Concluding Comments

The combination of information on individual student perceptions of the labour market and actual graduate performance led to the following findings:

(a) Even in a country of guaranteed employment , the market forces operate strongly.

(b) In particular, the relative structure of economic rewards is consis- tent with the operation of the economic forces of supply and demand.

(c) The students ' expectations of the labour market are in tune with the actual conditions of the market.

(d) The social demand for different fields of university specialisation is closely linked with the expected economic rewards.

(e) A strong element Of self-selection is in operation; many students follow highly undesirable subjects (such as agronomy) because of the availability of places.

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(f) As already documented in other studies, expected or actual "unem- ployment" following graduation is of an extremely short duration (of the order of one year).

TABLE XIV

Desirability Index and Expected Earnings for Fields of Specialisation (Students ' File)

Field of specialisation D Ys Y0

Architecture 192 68 109 Chemistry 146 52 116 Medicine 103 66 88 Commerce 88 43 60 Sciences 24 37 89 Vet. medicine - 2 5 47 85 Education - 6 0 35 56 Archaeology - 6 6 40 75 Technology - 6 7 38 56 Health institute - 7 2 37 51 Agronomy - 133 45 83

Note: D = (Desired - Actual) 0.100

Actual where "desired and "actual refer to the number of students having desired to study in a given faculty and actually being in that faculty, respectively. A negative sign indicates aversion for the corresponding faculty.

Notes

1 For the questionnaires and a more comprehensive description of this data set, see Sanyal et al. (1979).

2 Because of the different omitted dummy category in the two functions, the expected earnings advantage of those students who plan to be employed in the private relative to the public sector is 8 per cent (0.344 - 0.265).

3 For the rationale of this approach and comparison with other countries, see G. Psacharopoulos ( 1981).

4 See Psacharopoulos and Sanyal (1981b). For an early documentat ion of the incidence and duration of educated unemployment in Egypt, see Hamza (1962).

5 For the rationale of this formula and applications to other countries, see Psacharopoulos and Soumelis (1979), Psacharopoulos (1981) and Psacharopoulos and Sanyal (1981 a).

39

Refe rences

Hamza, M. (1962). "Research on Employment and Unemployment amongst the Educated". U.A.R., The Institute of National Planning, Memo No. 246.

Hyde, G. D. M. (1978). Education in Modern Egypt: Ideals and Realities. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.

Psacharopoulos, G. (1981). "Returns to Education: An Updated International Com- parison," Comparative Education (October).

Psacharopoulos, G. and Soumelis, C. (1979). "A quantitative analysis of the demand for higher education," Higher Education 8: 159-177.

Psacharopoulos, G. and Sanyal, B. C. (1981 a). "Student Expectations and Labour Market Performance: The Case of the Philippines", Higher Education 10: 449-472.

Psacharopoulos, G. and Sanyal, B. C. (1981b). Higher Education and Employment: The IIEP Experience in Five LDCs. IIEP, Fundamentals in Educational Planning, No. 32.

Sanyal, B. C., E1-Koussy, A. A., Harby, M. K., Balbaa, S. I., Noonan, R. and Yaici, L. (1979). "University Education and the Labour Market in the Arab Republic of Egypt". Paris: IIEP.

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APPENDIX A I n f o r m a t i o n f r o m t h e S t u d e n t s ' F i l e

TABLE A.I

Means and Standard Deviations of Selected Variables from the Students' File

Symbol Mean or Standard proportion deviation

Continuous variables

Expected monthly earnings (EL) - initial Y0 42.3 48.1 - after 5 years Ys 74.8 76.1 - after 10 years Y10 112.4 111.1

Expected waiting time (in years) TWAIT 1.2 0.9 Self-assessed foregone earnings (EL) YFOR 30.9 10.7 Father's income (EL) YF 102.1 55.0 Family income (EL) YFAM 115.3 78.7

Secondary school grade 72.3 10.4

Dummy variables*

Male 0.60 0.49

Public secondary school 0.86 0.35

Self-assessed college performance - excellent 0.09 0.29 - above average 0.54 0.50 - average 0.30 0.46

-- below average 0.02 0.14 - poor 0.02 0.13

Expected sector of employment - public 0.51 0.50

- private 0.23 0.42 - self-employment 0.17 0.38

Field of specialisation - Medicine 0.09 0.28 - Vet. medicine 0.01 0.1 l - Agriculture 0,13 0.34 - Commerce 0,03 0.18 - Economics and politics 0,08 0.27 - Sciences 0,09 0.28 - Architecture 0,04 0.19 - Fine Arts 0,01 0.10 - Social Sciences 0,12 0.32 - Other 0,40 0,49

* The value of 1 corresponds to the particular event and 0 otherwise.

T A B L E A.II

Zero-Order Cor re la t ion Coeff ic ients Be tween

S t u d e n t s ' File

Selected Variables f rom the

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Variable Foregone Ini t ial Earnings Wait ing to earnings earnings af ter first j ob

YFOR Y0 5 years TWAIT Ys

Male 0 .294 0 .112 0.155 0 .095 Fa the r ' s i n c o m e 0 .054 0 .099 0 .180 - 0 . 0 9 7 Secondary school grade 0 .016 0 .047 0 .105 - 0 . 0 4 3 Top p e r f o r m e r 0 .058 0 .033 0 .034 - 0 . 0 4 2

Public sec tor e m p l o y m e n t - 0 . 1 3 4 - 0 . 1 6 7 - 0 . 2 4 5 0 .006 Private sec tor e m p l o y m e n t 0.061 0 .048 0 .119 - 0 . 0 1 9 Se l f - emp loymen t 0 .099 0 .119 0 .157 0 .029

Note : The crit ical value of the cor re la t ion coef f ic ien t for s tat is t ical s ignif icance at the 95 per cen t level of p robab i l i t y is equal to 0 .031.

T A B L E A.III

Fo regone Earnings b y Selected Sample Character is t ics ( S t u d e n t s ' File) (EL/month)

Character is t ic Self-assessed

fo regone earnings

Sex: - males 33 - females 27

Field of special isat ion:

- Medicine 31 - Vet . med ic ine 33 - A g r o n o m y 32 - C o m m e r c e 29 - Economics and poli t ics 32 - Sciences 30 - Social Sciences 31 - A r ch i t e c t u r e 33 - Fine arts 30

Year of s tudy: - 1 s t 2 8

- 2nd 31 - 3rd 31 - 4 t h 32

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TABLE A.VI

Self-Assessed Foregone Earnings by Year Completion of Secondary School (Students ' File)

of

Year of completion Foregone earnings of secondary school (monthly EL)

1970 37 1971 36 1972 34 1973 33 1974 32 1975 31 1976 28 1977 27

TABLE A.V

Expected Student Sex (in EL~month)

Earnings by Field of Study and

Field of study Initial After After Y0 5 years 10 years

Y5 Yao

Medicine 53 87 124 Vet. medicine 47 85 123 Agriculture 45 83 122 Commerce 43 60 103 Economics and politics 39 65 93 Sciences 37 89 117 Social sciences 36 63 100 Architecture 68 109 191 Fine arts 92 86 153

Sex: - males 47 84 126 - females 36 60 92

Overall 43 75 112

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TABLE A.VI

Expected Waiting Time by Field of Study and Sex (Students' File)

Field of study Waiting time (in years)

Medicine 0.92 Vet. medicine 1.15 Agronomy 1.46 Commerce 1.63 Economics and politics 1.35 Sciences 1.03 Social sciences 1.17 Architecture 1.01 Fine arts 1.01 Other 1.08

Sex: - males 1.23 - females 1.05

Overall 1.16

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TABLE A.VII

Earnings and Waiting Time Regressions on Extended List of Independent Variables (Students' File)

Independent variable Foregone Initial Earnings Earnings Earnings Waiting earnings earnings after after growth time YFOR Yo 5 years 10 years YIo/Ys TWAIT

Y5 Yxo

Constant 3.428 3.347 3.692 4.078 1.42 1.855 Male 0.287* 0.148" 0.223* 0.251" 0.141 0.125" Secondary school grade -0.0004 0.002 0.004* 0.005 0.004 -0.005 Public secondary school -0.044 -0.070* -0.127" -0.125" -0.039 0.060 Father's income 0.0008* 0.0007* 0.0016" 0.0019" 0.0018 0.0001 Employment sector: a public -0.044 -0.076* -0.167" -0.293* -0.290* -0.041

private 0.011 0.073* 0.077 0.028 -0.133 -0.093 College grade: b excellent -0 .219" -0.021 0.016 0.638 0.127 -0.486*

above average -0.225* -0.049 0.076 -0.096 0.016 -0.426* average -0.256* -0.087 -0.126 -0.163 -0.039 -0.344* below average -0.281" 0.185 0.224 0.202 0.451 -0.391

Field: c Medicine -0.070 0.087 0.150" 0.164" 0.063 -0.254* Vet. medicine -0.041 0.135 0.106 0.053 -0.150 0.113 Agriculture -0.004 0.120" 0.140" 0.132" 0.043 0.267* Commerce -0.080 -0.036 0.033 0.066 0.070 0.418 Econ. and politics 0.001 0.028 0.061 0.068 0,014 0.236* Sciences -0.084 0.022 0.082 0.156 0.124 -0.154 Architecture 0.009 0.379* 0.305* 0.478* 0.077 -0.215 Fine arts 0.031 0.164 0.346 0.391 0.608 0.109 Other d -0.026 0.028 0.034 0.023 -0.015 -0.110

R 2 0.104 0.163 0.195 0.222 0.058 0.065

Notes: The dependent variable in the first four columns is the natural logarithm of earnings. a self-employment is the reference category b poor performance is the reference category c Social sciences is the reference category d other than those listed above or social sciences * Indicates statistical significance at the 5 per cent level of probability or better. The number of cases in all regressions is equal to 1224.

APPENDIX B Information from the Graduates' File

TABLE B.I

Means and Standard Deviations of Selected Variables Graduates' File

from the

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Variable Mean or Standard proportion deviation

Continuous variables

Monthly earnings, Y (EL) 50.4 30.8 First job earnings, YF 21.6 7.7 Waiting to first job (in months) 10.1 9.5 Age 33.1 7.2 Years of experience 8.5 6.5 Father's income (EL) 74.7 46.9 Years of higher education 4.4 0.98

Dummy variables*

Male 0.69 0.46 Married 0.64 0.48 Public sector employee 0.93 0.26 Field of specialisation:

- Medicine 0.04 0.19 - Vet. Medicine 0.01 0.09 - Agronomy 0.07 0.24 - Commerce 0.16 0.37 - Economics and politics 0.03 0.16 - Sciences 0.06 0.23

- Social sciences 0.14 0.35 - Architecture 0.08 0.27 - Fine arts 0.01 0.11

- Other 0.01 0.09

* The value of 1 corresponds to the particular event and 0 otherwise.

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TABLE B.II

Zero-Order Correlation Coefficients Between Selected Variables from the Graduates' File

Variable Current First job Waiting to monthly earnings first job earnings Y F I R S T TWAIT Y

Male 0.220 -0.047 -0.137 Age 0.576 -0.501 -0.183 Experience 0.623 -0.407 -0.184 Years of higher education 0.034 01087 -0.141 Married 0.245 -0.321 -0.106 Father's income 0.028 0.010 -0.035 Top performer 0.018 0.063 -0.054 Private sector employment 0.211 0.130 -0.049 Public sector employment -0.193 -0.106 0.074

Note: The critical value of the correlation coefficient for statistical significance at the 95% level of probability is equal to 0.031.

TABLE B.III

Actual Current Monthly Earnings by Field of Study and Sex(Graduates' File)

Field of study Whole sample Males Females

Medicine 46 46 46 Vet. medicine 46 50 35 Agronomy 55 57 41 Commerce 50 54 41 Economics and politics 48 52 41 Sciences 61 65 49 Social sciences 46 51 40 Architecture 53 55 40 Fine arts 45 46 44

Overall 50 56 40

TABLE B.IV

Actual Monthly Earnings by Selected Occupations and Sex (Graduates' File)

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Occupation Whole sample Males Females

Architect or engineer 59 60 49 Accountant 54 59 44 Lawyer 61 66 42 Teacher 44 47 37 Civil administrator 50 56 40

Overall 52 57 41

TABLE B.VII

Actual Initial Earnings by Selected Sample Characteristics (Graduates' File)

Characteristic Both sexes

Sector of employment:

- public 21.3 - private 24.6

Field o f sp ecialisation: - Medicine 27 - Vet. medicine 24 - Agronomy 20 - Commerce 21 - Economics 21 - Sciences 24 - Social sciences 19 - Architecture 28 - Fine arts 23

Sex:

- males 21 - females 22

Overall 22

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T A B L E B.VIII

Ac tua l Wait ing Time to Firs t Job by Selected Sample Character is t ics (Gradua t e s ' File)

Charac ter i s t ic Wait ing t ime ( in m o n t h s )

Sex:

- males 9.2

- females 12.0 Civil Status:

- marr ied 9.3

- single 11.4 Field of special isat ion:

- Ar ts 1 1.3

- Law 1 1.6 - C o m m e r c e 10.7 - Economics and pol i t ics 18.0

- Medicine 3.3 - Sciences 9.2 - A r ch i t e c t u r e 8.3 - E d u c a t i o n 3.8

- Vet . medic ine 6.8

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TABLE B.IX

Actual Earnings and Waiting Functions (Graduates' File)

Variable Current earnings First earnings Waiting time Ln(Y) Ln(Yo) TWAIT

Constant 3.350 3.335 17.161 Years of higher education 0.002* -0 .011 -0 .964* Experience 0.061 * -0 .041 * -0 .758 * Experience-squared - 0 . 0 0 0 5 " 0.0006* 0.020* Male 0.120* -0 .001 - 2 . 3 0 8 " Married -0 .005 -0 .059* -0 .278 Father's income 0.00009 0.0003 -0 .012 Private finance 0.013 -0 .015 0.301 Public sector employment -0 .379* -0 .045 3.351" Field of study:

- Medicine 0.163" 0.137" -7 .324* - Vet. medicine 0.101 0.012 -5 .054 - Agriculture - 0 . 0 8 3 " -0 .036 1.119 - Commerce 0.007 -0 .028 -0 .140 - Economics -0 .004 0.002 6.193 * - Sciences 0.092* 0.069 -1 .181 - Architecture 0.058 0.206" -2 .415 *

- Fine arts -0 .047 0.011 3.389 - Other 0.024 0.146 -0 .264

Self-assessment

- excellent 0.152 0.106 0.836 - above average 0.100 0.073 1.460 - average 0.120 0.081 1.420

R 2 0.631 0.394 0.132 N 782 782 782