south african telecoms in 2010: high stakes for the big winners - may 2010

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    May 2010

    The Delta Perspective

    The various elements

    o the South Arican

    telecommunications industry

    are likely to combine and

    result in an exciting and

    dynamic year or this market

    South African Telecoms in 2010:

    Hih staks for th bi winnrsAuthors Andrw Snad Partner

    Joao Sousa - PartnerTamm Whman PrincipalDta Partnrs Intinc Unit

    Key HIgHlIgHTS

    In 2009, mobile market subscriber

    growth was stagnant due to the

    implementation of the Regulation of

    Interception of Communications and

    Provision of Communication-Related

    Information Act (RICA) and the

    economic downturn

    Whilst the broadband market grew

    significantly, it continues to lag behind

    international peers

    Mobile players are investing heavily in

    building HSPA data networks. Their

    challenge is to maintain return on

    invested capital (ROIC) especially if

    prices erode

    When compared with other markets,

    current mobile voice prices indicate

    potential scope for further reduction

    although such matters warrant broader

    consideration given other factors such

    as low entry price

    Vodacom, MTN, Cell C and Telkom

    will soon be competing head to head

    in the mobile and data space. It will

    be challenging for all of the players to

    be all things to all customers while

    balancing expenditures and managing

    international operations

    In addition to broadband, we

    anticipate mobile payments, social

    networking and ICT enterprise services

    to be key areas of growth areas for

    2010. The latter is unlikely to be the

    sole preserve of Telkom, Dimension

    Data and other IT companies

    Over-the-top players such as Google

    and Apple will continue to become

    more relevant in both the Consumer

    and Enterprise market

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    A ook at th hits and misses from our

    2009 prdictions:

    Prediction 1: MTN and Vodacom will continue to compete in corporate services but will

    find it difficult to realise synergies with the mobile business due to organisational and

    commercial differences

    HIT: Vodacom was over-enthusiastic in its Gateway investment, taking more than

    R3bn impairment on the investment, partially due to the negative impact of the

    macroeconomic environment

    Prediction 2: An international player may enter the mobile market via acquisition or a

    new licence

    MISS: SA players proved to be the ones moving abroad, not vice versa (although

    Bharti came close, once again). However, it is possible that another player could

    come in via an acquisition in 2010 or 2011

    Prediction 3: Telecom infrastructure sharing will increase across South Africa (i.e., towersand sites, backbone fibre, submarine cables)

    HIT/MISS: Some level of sharing at a tower and fibre level. However, this is only

    the tip of the iceberg

    Prediction 4: Telkoms nomadic W-CDMA offer will struggle to achieve significant results

    HIT: The service has only a few thousand niche subscribers. However, Telkoms

    big wireless bet is now the national 3G service to be rolled out in 2010

    Prediction 5: Telkom will be placed under increasing pressure to deliver a clear strategy

    HIT/MISS: A new strategy has been communicated, including the re-entry into

    mobile, but the jury is still out regarding execution

    Prediction 6: Several VANs will be forced to sell or merge as they will lack the cash to

    make necessary capital investments

    MISS: Perhaps the prediction came a bit early, but we can still expect

    consolidation in 2010 for the ECNS licensees

    Prediction 7: Several service providers will be eliminated, as their contracts will not be

    renewed by the operators

    MISS: Most consolidation or buy-out of service providers happened in 2008 and

    not 2009. However, as margin pressures continue, we can expect operators to

    negotiate commissions downwards

    No look at South Africa in 2010 would

    be complete without some mention

    of the FIFA World Cup which has

    set the imagination of the countrys

    population and, indeed, that of Africa

    alight. This year brings the worlds

    greatest spectacle to the African

    continent for the first time and there

    is a high sense of excitement. The

    announcement of South Africa as the

    tournaments host sparked a positive

    frenzy of infrastructure upgrading

    and expansion, the likes of which the

    country has not seen before.

    The scope of infrastructure investment

    does not merely include transport

    and sports facilities, the country is

    also heavily focused on increasing

    its telecommunications capacity and

    quality. However, the World Cup is not

    the only impetus for the infrastructure

    rollout. Increased competition,

    Government encouragement for a

    next generation telecoms sector

    (capable of servicing the needs of

    schools, universities, hospitals and

    small businesses) and the recognition

    of a significant wireless data

    opportunity has resulted in material

    investment across the industry.

    Beyond infrastructure investment, the

    South African telecommunications

    industry has proved that change is

    the only constant in the market, as

    evidenced by the introduction of

    RICA, formalization of the ECNS

    licenses, a change of guard in the

    Department of Communications and,

    after much speculation, a reduction in

    interconnect rates.

    This white paper discusses various

    elements of the South African

    telecommunications industry and

    how these are likely to combine to

    result in an exciting and dynamic year

    for this market. The paper will draw

    on lessons learnt from international

    peers and will give an overview of key

    industry events that will shape 2010.

    While challenges remain, 2010 is a

    year in which the market is expected

    to start fulfilling its potential.

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    EXHIBIT 1: TELECOM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

    1Mobile subscriber lines includes mobile broadband due to nature o the subscription; 2 Includes ixed and mobile broadband; 3Includes ixed broadband, mobile broadband,mobile VAS and advanced messaging.

    Source: Delta Partners analysis, Pyramid Research

    South African telecoms inthe big picture

    When reviewing telecom sector development in

    2009, one could argue it has been a mixed year, yet

    could have been much worse given the impact of

    the global economic crisis on other sectors.

    Whilst the voice market growth

    was lower than previous years, thebroadband market (as predicted) grew

    considerably, albeit from a low starting

    point, reinforcing expectations of

    considerable latent demand.

    When looking at subscribers and

    revenues, the fixed business has

    declined, particularly in revenue terms.

    Telkom attempted to mitigate the

    subscriber loss impact on revenues

    through the migration to calling plans.

    However, it is clear that the fixed-line

    market is an extremely mature businessand revenues will continue to erode due

    to mobile and VoIP substitution.

    Mobile, by far the largest contributor

    of revenues, grew by around 8%.

    Nevertheless, all operators experienced

    less growth towards the end of

    2009 principally due to the mobile

    registration (RICA) process which both

    limited gross adds whilst shaking out

    the double-SIM market.

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    EXHIBIT 2: TELECOM PENETRATION BENCHMARK

    Source: ITU Source: WCIS

    Source: Global insights, OECD, ACM

    Consulting, CNNIC, TRAI, Telecompapers.com

    Broadband was the growth leader

    in 2009. Whilst starting from a

    small base, the market experienced

    significant growth in both fixed and

    mobile broadband. However, mobile

    has been (and will continue to be) the

    predominant access technology. For

    fixed line broadband to become more

    relevant, local loop unbundling (LLU)

    and/or fibre to the home (FTTH) will

    need to become a reality.

    When comparing with a selected peer

    group of Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador,

    Malaysia, Mexico and Turkey, the South

    African fixed-line and broadband

    penetration remains very low, especially

    given the comparatively high mobile

    penetration, reflecting the lack of true

    competition in the fixed-line market.

    This peer group was carefully selected

    to ensure that comparisons were the

    most reliable possible. The selection

    comprised countries with a similar

    population size, gross domestic product

    (GDP) per capita, and population

    density. All of these factors will create

    different challenges to developing a

    telecom industry.

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    EXHIBIT 3: PEER COUNTRIES DETAILED BENCHMARK

    *Note: Very limited deployment o highest speed

    Source: Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix Q3 09, IMF, OECD, WCIS, GSMA, JP Morgan, UBS,TMG MTR report, operator & regulator websites; Delta Partners analysis

    Much has been said in 2009 regarding

    the price of mobile communications

    in South Africa. From a consumer

    perspective, the comparative

    effective price per minute supports

    the commonly held view that prices

    remain expensive and there is room

    for further price reductions. Whilst

    this is possibly true, one should also

    consider other factors too.

    Key considerations

    Cost of entry - such as the price

    of a handset and SIM card. South

    Africa, in relative terms, offers very

    low-cost SIM starter packs (costing

    the customer very little, if anything)

    and highly subsidised handsets,even for prepaid, which is a rare

    Is mobile voice

    communication in South

    Africa really that expensive?practice worldwide. Consumers

    have been taught by operators that

    handsets are effectively free whilst

    also offering attractive post-paid

    promotions (including fridge freezers

    and microwaves) to entice new

    customers. Whether such customers

    deliver positive value to the operator

    over their respective contract period is

    highly questionable

    Cost to serve including urbanisation

    and fuel costs. When viewed in a

    global context, South Africa is not

    a particularly dense country; it has

    a medium degree of urbanisation

    and has high energy prices (with

    unreliable sources that call for

    costly back-up alternatives) which

    contribute to the cost per minute

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    EXHIBIT 4: GLOBAL REVENUES (RPM) PER MINUTE BENCHMARK

    Source: Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix Q3 09; Delta Partners analysis

    Note: RPM based Voice Revenue per Minute. CAPEX/sub based on average CAPEX over 5 last years divided by current subscribers

    Attractive and prolonged prepaid

    promotions. All players generally

    offer attractive pre-paid promotions

    (e.g. free on-net minutes for a given

    recharge amount) that frequently

    run for long periods or are quickly

    superseded by alternatives. The true

    effective rate per minute is therefore

    lower than the published rate

    Quality and customer experience.

    Although the recent network

    performance of all operators is not

    without question, there is a significant

    degree of investment taking place

    which should, if executed properly,

    deliver highly reliable, fast andinnovative services to the South

    African market. Markets with the

    lowest price per minute are often

    characterized by low levels of

    investment, innovation and quality

    As illustrated in Exhibit 3, South

    Africa already has one of the fastest

    3G networks among its peers and

    is now in the process of launching

    infrastructure capable of delivering

    21mbps. Generally, operators that

    have invested in building advanced

    high speed data networks have

    tended to also have a comparatively

    higher rate per minute. (See exhibit 4)

    In summary, there are grounds to

    suggest prices could reduce further

    in South Africa although the debate

    warrants broader consideration, beyond

    price per minute, which is too one-

    dimensional. We would recommendall factors are considered within the

    assessment (including entry costs and

    investment levels) to ensure the long

    term objectives of price competitiveness,

    quality and innovation are achieved.

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    Infrastructure sharing

    Operators need to move from rhetoric

    to reality regarding infrastructure

    sharing and optimized sourcing. Tower

    sharing has been a popular and well

    understood topic of debate for some

    time but the market is yet to fully exploit

    the opportunities. Telkom recently

    announced its wholesale agreement

    with MTN. Cell C is reportedly

    conducting a process to sell-off and

    lease-back its towers. However, given

    the rate of infrastructure build-out

    across the country, it is not clear that

    enough is being done to fully exploit the

    potential benefits at a time when the

    upside could be at its greatest.

    On the fibre side, Neotel spearheaded

    an innovative network agreement, first

    with MTN, and then with Vodacom, to

    share the costs of rolling out a national

    fibre-optic backhaul network. This

    agreement has enabled Neotel to lower

    CAPEX and decrease its dependency on

    Telkom which has struggled to meet the

    demands of all operators.

    How can operators ensure

    a return on investment?

    Given the levels of infrastructure investment

    coupled with price reductions and increasing

    competition in a maturing market, operators need

    to place greater scrutiny and focus on maximising

    return on investment capital (ROIC).

    Increasing focus on

    wholesale and maybe

    time for a new MVNO?

    Given the current level of network

    infrastructure deployment, operators

    will be seeking to drive utilization

    and monetize their investment. Price

    reductions will drive an increase

    in minutes of use (MOU), given

    an assumed level of elasticity. The

    expected explosion in downloading

    (and uploading) of high-bandwidth

    applications and content through

    lower cost smartphones will also

    create significant demand on network

    resources.

    However, operators will undoubtedly

    seek to drive wholesale revenues, as

    illustrated by the recent deal between

    MTN and Telkom. Beyond such mega-

    deals, operators could also position

    themselves to serve the smaller niche

    data players with wholesale-type

    solutions. We expect the wholesale data

    market to grow significantly given the

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    low level of penetration and demand

    for high-bandwidth services within the

    Government, corporate and small and

    medium enterprise (SME) space.

    Another option is for operators to

    launch additional Mobile Virtual

    Network Operators (MVNOs), such

    as Virgin Mobile. However, one must

    consider if there is there room for

    another MVNO alongside the new

    entrant Telkom.

    Handset subsidies

    and channel partner

    commission costsOperators need to address the high

    subscriber acquisition costs in the form

    of handset subsidies and sales channel

    commissions. Our internal benchmarks

    suggest that subscriber acquisition

    costs in South Africa are materially

    higher than some of its peers. The

    middle-man has clearly enjoyed his

    time in the sun but perhaps the pointhas arrived for operators to apply a

    greater degree of pressure on activation

    (and ongoing airtime) commissions and

    handset subsidies.

    Outsourcing and

    moving towards a lean

    operation

    Beyond infrastructure sharing, operators

    also need to determine how they can

    reduce operational expenditure (and

    improve capability) though optimizing

    other sourcing decisions through

    managed services and outsourcing

    deals. Example areas include: finance

    and accounting, order management,

    facilities management, call centre

    operations, network maintenance

    and support. In addition to improving

    capability and cost, such deals can also

    help drive cultural change, a delicate yet

    critical nettle for operators to grasp.

    The impact of RICA

    RICA was signed into law and

    implemented across South Africa in July

    2009. As part of the legislation, it has

    become the responsibility of mobile

    network operators to implement a

    registration process whereby consumers

    must provide proof of identity and

    residence (passport and hotel address in

    the case of tourists) when purchasing a

    new SIM card.

    While the rationale for the legislation

    is laudable primarily to help law

    enforcement agencies track criminals

    the execution has resulted in a

    number of issues.

    Firstly, such a process impacts the

    rural community significantly. It is

    very challenging for rural people

    residing in township settlements

    to provide an acceptable proof ofaddress. The result is that many

    rural airtime resellers have suffered a

    material loss of sales, impacting rural

    family wealth.

    Secondly, the process is very open

    to abuse. Any person may register

    an unlimited number of SIM cards

    and re-sell them on the black market

    which undermines the core objectiveof the initiative itself.

    Thirdly, the process has been marred

    by technical challenges (including

    the Gateway system and password

    hiccups) which have inhibited

    the registration process, severely

    impacting the customer experience

    and operator revenues.

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    EXHIBIT 5: PENDING REGULATORY ISSUES

    Inertia on the SA

    regulatory front

    The new presidential administration

    brought with it a wave of Governmental

    change, including the appointment of

    Siphiwe Nyanda as the new Minister of

    Communications. Mr Nyanda has set

    out a clear agenda to address the issue

    of competition within the South African

    telecommunications market, proactively

    pushing for competitive reform, not

    always with the full support from the

    Independent Communications Authority

    of South Africa (ICASA), the industrys

    regulatory authority.

    The most notable area of progress

    has been in relation to interconnect,

    where termination rate reductions

    have been implemented (an industry-

    led agreement to reduce peak rates

    from R1.25 to R0.89 following strong

    Government coercion) and a proposed

    roadmap for future reductions. Looking

    ahead, greater clarity is required on

    spectrum allocation and local-loop

    unbundling in particular.

    Looking ahead at thefuture of telecoms

    Telecoms will continue to be a growth

    industry in South Africa. The market

    is undoubtedly maturing on the voice

    side, yet significant future opportunity

    remains. Fixed-line voice will continue

    to fall, mobile voice will be relatively

    flat, and broadband will drive growth.

    Given that South Africa is so far

    behind its peers in terms of broadband

    penetration, we expect to see annual

    growth rates around 20 per cent. The

    year 2010 will be a key year for the

    South African telecoms market with

    existing mobile operators aggressively

    focusing on mobile broadband and

    Telkom entering the mobile space.

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    Other growth drivers include

    m-payments (a stickiness rather than

    revenue generating proposition) and

    the expansion of the information and

    communication technologies (ICT)

    sector. Telecom and IT spheres are

    becoming increasingly entwined and

    the current infrastructure investment

    should catalyze the outsourcing and

    managed services space, bringing

    Telkom, the mobile operators, niche

    data players and IT players (such as

    Dimension Data and Internet Solutions)

    into direct competition on the customer

    side, yet underpinned by cooperation

    on the infrastructure side. The era of

    coopetition has begun.

    As with other markets across the globe,

    Google and Apple will also play an

    increasingly relevant role with their

    over-the-top business applications

    suites. Naturally, they will also drive

    consumer data usage through their

    ever-expanding application libraries.

    How operators extract value from

    such applications is probably the most

    relevant question in the industry today.

    One of the key enablers to mobile

    broadband growth is smartphones and

    app-phones. The South African market

    has been dominated by Nokia and

    Samsung in recent years, both of which

    offer smartphone-like devices targeted

    more towards the middle to higher end.

    Perhaps this stranglehold will be broken

    by the increasing relevance of lower cost

    manufacturers such as ZTE and HTC.

    The future of

    broadband is mobile

    With fixed minutes in decline and very

    low internet and broadband penetration

    rates, it is clear the next area of growth

    will be data. Broadband subscribers

    are expected to reach over 9 million by

    2013, representing an annual growth of

    over 20 per cent for the next four years.

    With a poor fixed-line infrastructure

    and the high cost of access devices

    (i.e., laptops and desktops), mobile

    broadband with its instant connectivity

    and the ever-decreasing cost of 3G

    EXHIBIT 6: EXPECTED GROWTH IN TELECOM INDUSTRY

    Source: Delta Partners analysis

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    EXHIBIT 7: EXPECTED BROADBAND GROWTH

    Source: Delta Partners analysis1 Includes ixed and wireless broadband

    handsets is clearly outpacing fixed-line

    as the preferred connection type.

    According to the Bank of America,

    Merrill Lynch, Vodacom and MTN

    combined have 1.3 million internet users

    versus Telkoms 600,000 ADSL lines

    (moderately lower than our estimates).

    However, for the prepaid user, the cost

    of 3G dongles is still a significant barrier

    to entry. We can expect to see low cost

    dongles as manufacturers and resellers

    are willing to cut margins in return for

    higher volumes. Once the price for

    dongles, netbooks and smartphones

    starts to fall, mobile broadband access

    will grow materially.

    ICT services

    The demand for valued-added

    information and communication

    technology services is increasing as

    corporates and small and medium

    enterprises (SMEs) require more

    sophisticated services and look for

    ways to outsource non-core businessfunctions. The telecom value chain

    is converging and telecom operators

    face the opportunity and need to

    expand their focus and better serve the

    Corporate and SME market.

    By selling ICT services linked to the

    telecommunications services, a telecom

    operator is better positioned to:

    Protect traditional revenues (be

    proactive not reactive)

    Grow new revenue streams

    Manage margins on traditional

    services, avoiding competition on

    price per bandwidth (whilst accepting

    new-wave services are likely to be

    margin dilutive)

    Reduce risks on investments in next

    generation networking (NGN)

    The ICT market will not be the sole

    preserve of Telkom or the traditional

    IT players such as Dimension Data.

    No doubt the altnets (particularly

    Neotel) and the mobile players will beevaluating opportunities to expand

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    Source: Company, HSBC

    EXHIBIT 8: BROADBAND MARKET SHARE FORECAST BY TECHNOLOGY

    their corporate and SME relevance,

    potentially complementing their HSPA

    and fibre infrastructure investments

    with femtocells, which provide wireless

    broadband access directly to a premise.

    Developing a strong positioning in

    the IT/IS services requires the set up of

    specific competencies and partnerships.

    Both MTN and Vodacom have created

    units that are dedicated to the mobile

    and ICT needs of corporate clients and

    they are acquiring businesses such

    as Verizon and Gateway to deepen

    their expertise and product portfolios.

    However, without real local loop

    unbundling, the mobile operators may

    be limited in their ability to compete

    successfully. As highlighted earlier, we

    fully expect Google and Apple to play

    an increasing role in the ICT market as

    they expand their simple software-as-a-

    service (SAAS) application offerings.

    Mobile payments

    With a very significant unbanked

    community, South Africa offers a

    material opportunity for the mobile-

    payment (m-payment) and money-

    transfer space. Though operators have

    attempted m-payments in one form or

    another, the space remains relatively

    nascent and fragmented. However, this

    will change in 2010 as both banks and

    operators address the key issues (such

    as ease of use, reliability and access) and

    Vodacom launch M-Pesa which has the

    potential to catalyze the market.

    M-Pesa has close to 10 million users and

    over 2 million daily M-Pesa transactions

    in Kenya alone. Whilst Safaricoms

    very strong market position and local

    Government support has been key

    to this success (potentially explaining

    why M-Pesa has been less successful

    in Tanzania), it is clearly an effective

    proposition. In terms of key benefits

    for the operator, M-payment solutions

    can help drive customer retention

    (particularly important in maturing

    markets such as South Africa) whilst

    reducing airtime distribution costs.

    The key question is whether Vodacom

    can adapt M-Pesa to the local market

    reality (including financial regulations

    and licensing requirements) and use it

    to increase its market leadership. If so,

    MTN and Cell C will have to innovate

    and react.

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    According to independent M&A

    intelligence service Mergermarket, M&A

    activity in South Africa dropped 61 per

    cent in 2009. In 2010, we can expect

    South African operators to continue to

    proceed with caution.

    The largest and most lucrative African

    markets have already been conquered

    by the major regional players. Few

    attractive greenfield opportunities existand prices for many assets have been

    expensive raising questions surrounding

    shareholder value creation. Operators

    are perhaps starting to look further

    afield, as i llustrated by MTNs current

    discussions with Orascom.

    Operators with a high dependence

    on the South African market, such as

    Telkom, will perhaps look for further

    diversification opportunities wherethey will find themselves up against a

    new breed of bidders, such as Russian,

    Chinese and Indian players.

    In the early 2000s, private equity funds

    fuelled much of the growth of the

    emerging GSM operators. Since those

    groups have grown and consolidated,

    private equity has been less active in

    recent years. However, interest in the

    telecom space has picked up againwith a large number of infrastructure

    transactions (tower, fibre, submarine

    cable and satellite) being discussed.

    Investors such as former US Secretary

    of State Madeleine Albright, billionaire

    investor George Soros, and banker

    Jacob Rothschild have created a $350m

    fund to invest in Nigerias Helios towers.

    This type of activity is expected to grow,

    especially in key markets such as South

    Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and East Africa.

    Role of private equity

    and M&A

    In 2009, mergers

    and acquisitions

    (M&A) in South

    Africa hit the lowest

    levels in six years.

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    Telkom

    In addition to the windfall gained

    from the Vodacom sale, Telkom was

    afforded the opportunity to start anew.

    In November 2009, Telkom embraced

    this by announcing a new Renaissance

    strategy focused on creating a full

    mobile offering and going aggressively

    for the data centre business.

    Telkoms entry into the mobile market

    may be considered a bold move atthis relatively late stage of market

    maturity. However, the company does

    have some advantages over other

    new entrants such as a full national

    core network, expertise in network

    technology and a significant (yet

    decreasing) customer base.

    Vodacom

    For Vodacom, control by Vodafone has

    placed increased focus on operational

    efficiencies. The fruits of its cost

    containment programme paid off in

    2009 as EBITDA margins increased,

    despite a slowdown in revenue growth.

    Vodacom did not take its eye off the

    market during this period, successfully

    defending its market share in South

    Africa and lowering its churn levels.

    Vodacom has had less success in the

    push to diversify its revenues outside

    the South African mobile market. The

    international operations performed

    poorly, due to weak market conditions

    and competitive offerings in the

    respective markets.

    These pressures are likely to continue in

    2010, requiring further attention from

    management with perhaps an increasing

    focus on Vodacom Business which still

    remains a fraction of total operator

    revenues despite continued efforts to

    grow this business.

    Operator outlook for 2010

    MTN

    For MTN South Africa, 2009 was

    particularly challenging. It was the

    first time that the firm reported

    negative subscriber growth, largely

    due to the impact of RICA and system

    and billing issues.

    ARPU also fell slightly due to pressure

    on consumer spending. However, MTNs

    continued product innovation and

    strong marketing campaigns allowedit to defend market share. A new,

    segment-driven market approach should

    be expected, resulting in a better service

    offering and customer experience.

    Cell C

    In a recent article, the Cell C CEO, Lars

    Reichelt, remarked on Cell Cs ambitious

    plans to strengthen its market position.

    Cell C certainly surprised the market

    by announcing plans to launch a new

    high-speed data network in 2010. Cell

    C is planning to surpass the current

    market offering in terms of speed by

    launching an HSPA+ network, capable

    of delivering very high-speed wireless

    broadband services. This bold move

    is expected to change the market

    dynamics, especially as 3G connectivity

    has become a critical component in

    mobile offers in South Africa.

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    Outlook for 2010: winners and losers

    Winners

    South Africa will successfully highlight the countrys character and

    infrastructure during FIFA World Cup

    Broadband will explode in 2010 and 2011

    The consumer will benefit from a continued decrease in prices and strong

    promotions

    Network superiority will become even more important as operators

    compete strongly on mobile data

    Operators that perfect customer retention tactics will win

    Losers

    LCR will lose. As interconnect falls, LCR operators will need to convert

    subscribers to their networks or will fail to have a relevant discounted offer

    Operators who go in to price-war mode and cannot reduce operational

    costs will lose. In a mature and increasingly-competitive market, cost

    reduction is a must

    Incumbents will be pressured. Regulatory changes will put pressure on

    current business models forcing incumbents to reinvent themselves

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