scir issue iii

S!"#$%&' C()*+!&'*( I'#%&'(#*!'() R%,*%-

.e Southern California International Review (SCIR

SCIR

SCIRSCIR

Southern California International Review

Southern California InternationalReview

S!"#$%&' C()*+!&'*( I'#%&'(#*!'() R%,*%-

Sta!Editor-in-Chief

Assistant Editors-in-Chief:

Editors:

Cover Design and Layout:

Contents

Assessing the In!uence of "ird-Party Mediators on Negotiation Outcomes

Explanations for the Lack of Political Participation and the Rami#cations for Democracy in Russia

Dual Citizenship, Expatriate Voting, and the Appeal of Migrant Political Candidates

An Analysis of Soccer as a Tool for Diplomacy

A letter from the editor:

Sincerely,

Editor-in-Chief

Shalom Y’all Assessing the In!uence of "ird-Party Mediators on Negotiation

Outcomes (abridged)1

Peacemaking e$orts in intractable con!icts rarely set high expectations for success. "e con!ict’s prolonged, historical nature paired with its deep psychological wounds make it nearly impossible for leaders to adopt political solutions. Given these di%cult realities, the third-party mediators who lead peacemaking e$orts are rarely held responsible for the outcome of negotiations—the di%cult circumstances are deemed to be outside of a mediator’s control. Intrigued by the lack of consideration devoted to the third-party mediator, this study raises the question of whether a mediator could in fact have a signi#cant in!uence on the outcome of an international negotiation, and if so, what factors could make some mediators more successful than others in leading disputing parties to reach an agreement. Using comparative analysis, this study o$ers an answer by evaluating the di$erences between the Egyptian-Israeli nego-tiations in 1978-9 and the Syrian-Israeli negotiations in 2000. "ese two cases demonstrate signi#cant similarities, and yet one reached an agreement while the other ended in failure. While systemic, domestic, and individual analyses each attempt to explain the cases’ di$er-ing outcomes without considering the role of the mediator, these explanations are not entirely convincing. By examining the in!uence of third-party mediators, three relevant conclusions emerge:

1. A mediator who pursues a directive strategy, and has the power to enact it, is more likely to reach an agreement than one who resorts to merely facilitative tactics.

2. A mediator who prioritizes the peace process over other national security concerns is more likely to reach an agreement than one who does not deem the agreement to be essential to the national interest.

3. A mediator who utilizes team members with signi#cant decision-making authority will be more likely to reach an agreement than one who does not.

"ese three conclusions suggest that a third-party mediator can have a signi#cant in!uence on the outcomes of a negotiation—one that can rival, and at times supersede, systemic, domes-tic, or individual conditions.

is a senior at the University of Southern California double-ma-joring in International Relations and Spanish.

Landry Doyle

Peace has one thing in common with its enemy,with the #end it battles, with war—

Peace is active, not passive;Peace is doing, not waiting;

Peace is aggressive—attacking;Peace plans its strategy and encircles the enemy;Peace marshals its forces and storms the gates;

Peace gathers its weapons and pierces the defense;Peace, like war, is waged.

I. Introduction

2

New York Times

11

Shalom Y’all

II. Research Methods and Selection of Cases

Case One: Camp David Negotiations 1978-1979

4

Camp David: Peacemaking and Politics

12 Landry Doyle

Peace Process: American Diplomacy and the Arab-Israeli Con!ict since 1967White House Diary

Shalom Y’all

8

Case Two: Shepherdstown and Geneva Negotiations 1999-2000

Camp

14 Landry Doyle

11

Shalom Y’all

12

14

New York TimesInnocent Abroad: An Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East

Landry Doyle

18

III. "e Individual Mediator

Peace ProcessMy Life

Journal of Peace Research

Shalom Y’all

21

22

Political Studies

18 Landry Doyle

IV. Variable One: Mediation Strategy

1. Carter succeeds as a directive facilitator intending to shape the negotiation process and outcome1.1 Carter’s problem-solving style preferred detail-oriented, comprehensive prepara-tion

24

PowerCamp Peace ProcessPowerCamp

Shalom Y’all

1.2 Carter proactively initiates a risky summit negotiation

28

White KeepingWhiteKeeping

Camp

Landry Doyle

1.3 Carter places no time constraints on negotiation and devotes his full attention

1.4 Carter develops a profound understanding of both negotiating parties

Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Re-sponses to International Con!ict

21

Shalom Y’all

1.5 Carter sees himself as an active negotiator

Keeping

PowerWhite

Camp

22 Landry Doyle

1.6 Carter advances a bold American position

41

42

44

1.7 Carter sees the agreement through to its completion

White

KeepingKeeping Camp

Camp Hard Choices: Critical Years in America’s Foreign Policy

Shalom Y’all

48

1. Clinton slides into a more communicative role and refuses bold, shaping action1.1 Clinton’s problem-solving style is centered on his superb political abilities

White

Camp

24 Landry Doyle

Peace Process

Shalom Y’all

1.2 Clinton articulates a passive approach to the peace process throughout his term

1.3 Clinton does not prepare adequately for Shepherdstown and does not give the summit his full attention

Peace Process

Danger and Opportunity: An American Ambassador’s Journey "rough the Middle East

Landry Doyle

1.4 Clinton assumes a role as a passive facilitator at Shepherdstown

Cambridge Review of International A$airs 12,

Shalom Y’all

1.5 Clinton allows Barak to assume a directive role

28 Landry Doyle

Shalom Y’all

1.6 Clinton never puts forth an independent American proposal

81

Landry Doyle

82

1.7 Clinton understands Syria’s bottom line, but never forces Barak to meet it

84

88

Shalom Y’all

1.8 Clinton never forced Israel to disclose its bottom line

"e New Yorker

Landry Doyle

1.9 Barak continues to direct the negotiations at Geneva, while Clinton merely facili-tates

Shalom Y’all

V. Variable Two: Prioritization of Mediation Outcomes Relative to the Na-tional Interest

2. Carter saw the outcomes of mediation as a critical part of the national interest2.1 Articulates the strategic importance of Middle East peace

Landry Doyle

Keeping

Presidential Studies QuarterlyMorality Reason, and Power: American Diplomacy in the Carter Years

Power

Shalom Y’all

Keeping

Landry Doyle

2.2 Ignores domestic pressures and sacri#ces political interests to achieve peace

111

KeepingCamp

Peace Process

Shalom Y’all

112

114

2.3 Describes Middle East peace as the de#ning issue of his presidency and continues involvement a&er leaving o%ce

KeepingCamp

WhitePalestine: Peace Not Apartheid We Can Have Peace in the Holy Land: a plan that will work

Keeping

Landry Doyle

2. Clinton expresses strategic interest in the Middle East, but the importance of Syri-an-Israeli peace is unclear in the Administration’s long list of ambiguous priorities2.1 "e Administration articulates an ad hoc approach to national security goals

118

A National Security Strategy of Engagement and EnlargementInternational Security

Foreign A$airs

Shalom Y’all

2.2 Understands value of Middle East stability, but Syrian and Palestinian negotia-tions vie for Administration’s attention

121

122

124

Landry Doyle

2.3 Clinton demonstrates a concern for domestic political considerations and is un-sure of the relation to national security concerns

Peace Process

41

Shalom Y’all

128

42 Landry Doyle

VI. Variable "ree: Use of Negotiating Team

3. Carter’s team works cohesively allowing Secretary Vance to exert authority as Carter’s second in command

Shalom Y’all

Keeping

44 Landry Doyle

3. Clinton’s team is not utilized to its fullest capacity, allowing a non-authoritative #gure to lead the process

141

Camp

Shalom Y’all

142

VII. Conclusions

Landry Doyle

Shalom Y’all

BibliographyNew York Review

of BooksMadam Secretary

Journal of Palestine Studies

Journal of Peace Research

Peacemaking in International Con!ict: Methods and Techniques

Negotiation Journal

Journal of Peace ResearchMediation in International Relations: Multiple Ap-

proaches to Con!ict Management"e Clinton Tapes: Wrestling History with the President

Foreign Policy

Power and Principle: Memoirs of the National Security Adviser 1977-1981

Keeping the Faith: Memoirs of a President

White House DiaryMy Life

Herding Cats Multiparty Mediation in a Complex World

Taming Intractable Con!icts: Mediation in the Hardest Cases

48 Landry Doyle

Negotiation JournalDanger and Opportunity: An American Ambassa-

dor’s Journey "rough the Middle East. In Search of Identity: An Autobiography

Foreign A$airsForeign A$airs

.” Journal of Palestine Studies

Innocent Abroad: An Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East

"e Washington Quarterly

Middle East Policy

Cambridge Review of International A$airs

New York TimesCon!ict Regulation in Divided Societies

International Stud-ies Perspectives

Interna-tional Security

Security StudiesCamp David: Peacemaking and Politics

Peace Process: American Diplomacy and the Arab-Israeli Con!ict since 1967

Shalom Y’all

Middle East Memo: "e Saban Center for Middle East Peace

International Studies Quarterly

Presidential Studies Quarterly

"e Missing Peace: "e Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace

Journal of Pales-tine Studies

Political Studies

Political Science QuarterlyMorality Reason, and Power: American Diplomacy in the Carter Years

"e Other Arab-Israeli Con!ict: Making America’s Middle East Policy from Truman to Reagan

Negotiation JournalMiddle East Insight

Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Con!ict

"e Go-Between: Jan Eliasson and the Styles of Media-tion

Landry Doyle

"e Truth About Camp David: "e Untold Story About the Collapse of the Middle East Peace Process

"e Middle East JournalPower and Leadership in International Bargaining: "e Path to the Camp David Ac-

cords.International Mediation in "eory and Practice

Hard Choices: Critical Years in America’s Foreign Policy

Re-thinking Foregin Policy Analysis: States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations

"e New YorkerA National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement

International Organizations

Shalom Y’all

The Sounds of Silence Individual level explanations for the lack of political participation and

the rami#cations for a democratic future in Russia

"is article seeks to explain the comparative lack of political participation in Russia through the individual, as opposed to the aggregate, lens. Although this analysis takes into account the in!uence of more general factors like history and economics, the pri-mary variables constitute Personal Engagement—an individual’s awareness and knowl-edge of political and social issues of the day—and Personal Engagement—an individual’s con#dence in government institutions and the sense that he or she has a “say” in policy decisions and government machinations. By analyzing political participation at the indi-vidual level, this article attempts to shed light on the democratic potential of the Russian populace and on democratization in Russia in general.

1

is a senior at the University of Southern California majoring in International Relations and minoring in French, Russian, and Painting.

Lara Nichols

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS

"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future

2

3

4

5

2

4

Lara Nichols

6

7

(Fig. 1) Percent of respondents who approved of the economy and the current presi-dent from years 1991-20098

8


9

Lara Nichols

(Fig. 2) Percent of respondents who approved of the economy and the current presi-dent from January 2010-December 201110

PARTICIPATION RESULTSVoting

11

11


12

13

Nonvoting Participation

14

14

Lara Nichols

15

16

17

18

19

18


20

POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT

Awareness

21

TV

21

Lara Nichols

22

Media Legitimacy

23

22


24

25

26

24

Lara Nichols

27

Potential for Participation

28

Conclusions on Engagement

28


EFFICACY

Sense of E%cacy

29

Sense of Agency

Europe-Asia Studies

Lara Nichols

30

Generalized Trust and its Implications

31

"e Moral Foundations of Trust


32

33

34

35

Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy

Lara Nichols

Institutional Trust

36


Con#dence in Institutions

37

38

Lara Nichols

39

Conclusions on E%cacy


CONCLUSION

40

Lara Nichols

41

42

41 42


Bibliography

Russian Election Study 2003-2004

Russia: the Challenges of Transformation

Europe-Asia Studies

Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe

Voter Turnout since 1945: a Global Report

Russia: the Challenges of Transformation

Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy

State Building in Putin’s Russia: Policing and Coercion a&er Communism.

Pedro Ramirez

"e Return: Russia’s Journey from Gorbachev to Medvedev

"e Moral Foundations of Trust

Opportunities for Migrant Participation in Mexican Politics

Dual Citizenship, Expatriate Voting, and the Appeal of Migrant Political Candidates

"is paper explores the phenomenon of expatriate voting and other forms of transnational political participation in the case of Mexicans living in the United States. In the mid-1990s, the Mexican government abandoned decades of exclusionary policies and began to incorporate migrants in the electoral process. Dual nationality was #nally allowed and migrants were able to cast their votes for the presidential elections of 2006 from abroad for the #rst time. Despite these positive changes, voter turnout in 2006 was a big disappointment and expatriate voting remained limited to a relatively small pool of potential voters. While the government has spent considerable resources to improve the expatriate voting process in time for this year’s presiden-tial elections, migrant activists like Andres Bermudez–the Tomato King–have demonstrated that the boundaries for migrant political participation can still be stretched further. Migrants cannot only vote during elections; they can now run for public o%ce, as well.

1

is a senior at the University of Southern California majoring in Interna-tional Relations-Global Business, and minoring in Cinema-Television and East Asian Languages and Cultures (Mandarin).

Pedro Ramirez

"e Struggle for Migrant Voting Rights: 1929-2006

Mexicans Outside Mexico2

4


8

11

12

14

Pedro Ramirez

citizenship à la carte

18


21

22

24

28

Pedro Ramirez

Expatriate Voting in the 2006 and 2012 Presidential Elections

candados

IFE cards

81


candados

41

42

candados

82 Pedro Ramirez

44

candados

Alternative Paths for Migrant Political Participation


48

Ley Migrante

Los Angeles Times

84 Pedro Ramirez

campesino


1

2

Conclusion

Pedro Ramirez

Bibliography

"e Politics, Economics, and Culture of Mexican-US Migration: Both Sides of the Border

"e Journal of American History

International Migration Review

Mexican Studies / Estudios Mexicanos

Los Angeles Times

Citizenship, Political Engagement, and Be-longing: Immigrants in Europe and the United States

Citizenship across Borders: the Political Transnational-ism of El Migrante

88 Nancy Talamantes

is a junior at the University of Southern California ma-joring in International Relations-Global Business.

Institute de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques

"e universal popularity of soccer stems from its inclusivity of di$erent ethnicities, races, and cultures. People without common languages, traditions or backgrounds can engage in a game of soccer simply because it is easy to understand and play. "e unifying aspect of soccer enables it to unite people under a common goal and objective. In essence, the inclusive quality of soccer allows for it to become a common language people universally speak and thus a source of communication among them. Soccer therefore has the power to communicate social, cultural, and political matters. "erefore, as an integral part of the cultures of many nations, soccer can potentially be considered an imminent source to promote peace and conduct cultural diplomacy between nations.

The World Cup and World OrderAn Analysis of Soccer as a Tool for Diplomacy

Nancy Talamantes

1

2

4

International Spectator

"e Global Art of Soccer


8

Political Psychology

Sports: A Tool for International Relations

Nancy Talamantes

11

12

.e

14

18

International Journal of the History of Sport

FIFA.com - Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA).


21

22

Nancy Talamantes

24

28


31 “FIFA.com - Fair Play Code.”

Nancy Talamantes

.e


41

42

BibliographyInterna-

tional Spectator

Nancy Talamantes

Political Psychology Sports: A Tool for International Relations

FIFA.com - Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA)

"e Telegraph.

International Journal of the History of Sport

General Assembly of the United Nations

"e Global Art of Soccer

scir issue iii

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