school of nuclear knowledge...

SMR.1769-13

SCHOOL OF NUCLEAR KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

18-22 September 2006

The Need for Nuclear Knowledge

Y. YANEV International Atomic Energy Agency Department of Nuclear Engineering

Knowledge Management Unit A-1400 Vienna

AUSTRIA

The need for Nuclear Knowledge

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Yanko YanevHead Knowledge Management Unit

Department of Nuclear Energy

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Outline

• Status of Nuclear Energy Development• The Global Energy Imbalance• The Role of Nuclear Energy• The three legs of the chair and the need

for Nuclear Knowledge• Concerns• Activities • Hopes

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• More than 11 000 reactor years of experience

• More than 440 power reactors in operation(installed capacity > 370 GWe)

• Average plant load factor: >80%

• Contributions to global electricity: ~16% in 2004

• Low electricity cost, good safety records

• In 2004/5, new capacity 7529 MWe connected to the grid.

- South Korea: Ulchin 5 & 6 (2x960 MWe ) - China: Qinshan 3 (610 MWe)- Japan: Hamaoka 5 (1380 MWe) - Ukraine: Khmelnitsky 2 & Rovno (2x950 MWe)- Russian Federation: Kalinin 3 (950 MWe)- Canada: Bruce 3 (769 MWe) restarted

• Shift in national energy strategies

Status of Nuclear Power

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The Nuclear Power Map

Considering NP- Population 1 Billion- Assume:- installed capacity 1.5

KW/cap- 20% NP in energy mix

- Total: ~ 300 GW(e)With NP China and India Considering NP


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5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20506

6,5

7

7,5

8

8,5

9RenewablesBiomassNuclearGasOil

CoalPopulation

Source IEA : Energy to 2050 -Scenarios for a Sustainable Future

Sustainable Development Vision Scenario

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2030 2050

Exa

joul

es (E

J)

SRES A1T IEA SD Vision

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Renewables

Gtoe

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Map of Global Energy PovertyMap of Global Energy Poverty

Millions of People Without Electricity

Millions of People Relying on Biomass

28 20

509 530

56 96

815

221 332

801

18 570

1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

By 2030 (IAE):

GDP annual growth 3.2 %,

Electricity use 2,5 %,

New 4800 GW(e),

Investment 10 T$,

Expressed interest in NP

Paris (2005):

Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, Morocco, Poland, Turkey, Vietnam

GC,Vienna (Sept. 2005)Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria,Malaysia, Tunisia, Tanzania,Thailand, Uruguay, Chile,

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Growing expectations in NP: developed and developing countries.

Developed countries:•Modest increase in use/capita•Non-power application: transport(H2)•Market and deregulation (investment return, renewable, waste)•Public acceptance, climate change factors

Developing countries:•Multiple increase in use /capita, living standards•Industrial development•Non-power application: water, heat•Infrastructure

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World Energy Demand : More Energy, Better Life

UN’s HDI (Human Development Index) and Electricity Use

• HDI based on three indicators : life time, educational level, GDP• Above 5000kWh, no country has an HDI below 0.9.• Below 4000kWh, no country above 0.9.

Source : Global Energy Futures and HD by Alan D. Pasternak, 2000. DOE.


3

9

Applicants economic and financial parameters

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Italy

Pol

and

Chi

le

Mal

aysi

a

Uru

guay

Turk

ey

Thai

land

Phi

lippi

nes

Tuni

sia

Kaz

akhs

tan

Egy

pt

Mor

occo

Indo

nesi

a

Vie

tnam

Alg

eria

Iran

Zim

babw

e

Gha

na

Nig

eria

Tanz

ania

GNP/cap.

Annual growth

Human development index

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2002 2022 2032 2042 20520

1000

2000

CoalOilHydroRenewableNuclear

YEAR

Projected installed capacity [GWe]

275GWe(Nuclear)82 GWe(Renewable)

150 GWe(Hydro)204 GWe(Oil & Gas)

615 GWe(Coal)

2.72GWe(Nuclear)

1344 GWe(TOTAL)

139 GWe(TOTAL)

Source : An International Journal of Nuclear Power Vol18 No 203 (2004)INDIA

11

23779

400

160

580

27020

50

2.1 11.7 4060

1650

600

960

72.4327

Source : CIAE, July 2005

CHINA

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The Nuclear Power Future


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13

Generation 3+

Generation 4Existing fleet40-year plant life

Plant life extension beyond 40 years

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

Average plant life : 48 years

Nuclear Power Technology Forecast

Source : EDF, ENC 2002

Live extension of present PWRsReplaced by EPR by 2020 and Gen IV fast reactors by 2035-2040.A transition phase between present reactors and 4th generation systems.

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Nuclear Power Resource Forecast

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01

2

3

4ECONOMICS

SAFETY

ENVIRONMENT

WASTEMANAGEMENT

PROLIFERATIONRESISTANCE

INFRASTRUCTURE

21002010

4 = much better

3 = better

2 = present situation (2010)

1 = worst

The Nuclear Power Challenges

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The 3 legs of the chair..

• Public interest• Responsible use

of nuclear technology

• Sustainable nuclear knowledge and expertise


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Concerns

• Aging of personnel, retirement• Loss of knowledge, • Degradation in technology skills and know-

how• Degradation in Safety of current installation• Dilution or loss of innovation potential

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A look in the rear view mirror……Decline in UK Public Fission R&D Funding

0

5 0

1 0 0

1 5 0

2 0 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

3 5 0

4 0 0

4 5 0

5 0 0

1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 80 1 98 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 00

Fund

ing

£m (2

001m

v)

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A look in the rear view mirror……Decline in UK R&D Manpower in Industry

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HRD : Deficiency of NE GraduatesNE graduates Supply and Demand in U.S.

Source : NEDHO 2004

• Demand prediction – Survey result of 52 percent of 176 U.S. companies

• Supply prediction - Survey result of 28 U.S. universities • ¼ Supply/Demand (S/D) deficiency in U.S.

• It looks like the Janus Face


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Nuclear Engineers : High Demand = High OpportunityNuclear Engineers : High Demand = High OpportunityNuclear Engineers : High Demand = High Opportunity

HRD : The Janus Face of S/D Deficiency

Source : DOE presentation by W.D. Magwood, 2004

• Despite of more job opportunity with high salary, the supply is continuously decreased due to the closing or merging of NE departments in universities.

• To enhance employment of the student, it is needed to encourage universities and graduate school

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HRD : Long-term InvestmentTrends in Enrollments vs. DOE University Program Investment

• A unique solution of S/D deficiency is dependant on the long-term investment to NE

• How ? When ? Where ? Amount ?• The Yoyo Syndrome and Long Winter in four season

Model by B.J. Chung

Source : DOE presentation by W.D. Magwood, 2002

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Needed Expertise in Germany

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Preparation andOperation of

Interim Storageof Spent Fuel

Decommissioning

NPP Operation

Source: Fritz, FZK, 2002.


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Time to built expertise

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Industry

RegulatoryAuthority

Research

Universities

Source: Fritz, FZK, 2002/Griffiths, NEA News, 2002.

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HRD : Highlight Issues

Employment Crisis vs.

• Nuclear Energy Faces Significant Human Resources Issues• Ageing of the 1st generation experts• Massive retirement within next years• Decreasing student supply and reducing nuclear program• Deficiency of human resource to replace the current

workforce

High Job Opportunities

Source : IYNC 2004 presentation by B.J. Chung & OECD NEA, 2001 Nuclear Education & Training : Cause for Concern

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How urgent is Nuclear KM?

• Unless action is taken now, invaluable assets in critical nuclear knowledge and capacity will soon be lost.

• The need to sustain the present level of deployment of nuclear technology (energy and non-energy alike) requires urgent action throughout the nuclear community and beyond.

IAEA Meeting of Senior Officials , June 2002

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The Role of the IAEAIAEA has an obligation to lead activities towards preservation and enhancement of nuclear knowledge by complementing, and as appropriate supplementing, activities by governments, industry, academia and international organizations.

• The Agency, in particular, should use its potential in assisting Member States to ensure the preservation of viable nuclear education and training which is a necessary prerequisite for succession planning.

IAEA Meeting of Senior Officials , June 2002


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IAEA Objectives

• To increase awareness in Member States,

• To provide methodology and guidance,

• To support nuclear education and training,

• To implement special projects, provide services and support to nuclear knowledge management initiatives.

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Activities

A substantial area of Agency activity involves assisting Member States:

-capacity building,-human resources development,-support to educational programmes, -hands on training, -knowledge transfer,

in ways best suited to their desired uses of nuclear technology.

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IAEA Nuclear Energy Knowledge Base

A new system of Agency Technical Support Documents

NUCLEAR ENERGY SERRIES / NES

Level 1Fundamentals/Basics and Objectives

Level 2Guidelines

Level 3Supporting Reports

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Agency’s Nuclear Safety Knowledge

• Embedded in the IAEA Safety Standards


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Current activities of the KM Programme

• Developing Policy and Guidance for Nuclear Knowledge ManagementKnowledge Management in Nuclear Power Plants,Knowledge Loss Risk Management methodology,etc.

• Networking Nuclear EducationWNU, ANENT,ENEN,UNENE,IUSS, etc.

• Pilot Projects in critical areas -Fast Reactor KP initiative, GCR,Chernobyl Knowledge

Preservation, others.

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ANENT (URL: www.anent-iaea.org)

Asian Network for Education in Nuclear Technology(ANENT)

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The ANENT was launched in February 2004.

What is ANENT?

The ANENT has 28 member institutions from 12 countries, and 4 collaborating organizations.

Vietnam

Australia China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia

Mongolia Pakistan The Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand

ARCCNM ASNM ENEN WNU

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ANENT Web-portal is developed.(URL: www.anent-iaea.org)

Progress of the ANENT

A cyber platform supports various types of web-based learning;

“Activities” support each ANENT group activities;

A database provides data on curricula from ANENT member institutions;

The other functions facilitate information exchange.


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A joint initiative of IAEA, ICTP and WNU

Trieste Summer School for Nuclear Knowledge Management

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The new Agency “Nucleus” portal

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Future plans

• Continue to maintain the nuclear knowledge base,

• Complete the nuclear knowledge management methodologies, tools and practices and make them widely available.

• Initiate knowledge preservation projects in important areas,

• Provide support to educational networks, • Cooperate with Industry (WANO, WNA) on

assessing and managing “knowledge loss risks”.


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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Nuc

lear

cap

acity

(GW

(e))

Discontinuity ?

What will be the role of nuclear

power?

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I thank you for your attention

H O P E S

"Nature is neutral. Man has taken from nature the power to make the world a desert or to make the deserts a garden. There is no evil in the atom. The devil is only in our souls”