salem's economic and housing outlook
TRANSCRIPT
Salem Economic and Housing Outlook
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Josh Lehner
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are solely those of the presenter, they do not necessarily represent official State of Oregon policies or positions.
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Economic Analysis2
The Valley is Booming
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Economic Analysis3
Labor Market is Tight
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Economic Analysis4
Everybody has a Job Finally
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Economic Analysis5
Full Employment Impact
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Economic Analysis6
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Economic Analysis7
Poverty Rates Falling
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Economic Analysis8
Issue: Job Polarization
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Economic Analysis9
Polarization “Adjustment”
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Economic Analysis10
Outlook: Slower Growth
Housing
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Economic Analysis12
Statewide Challenge
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Economic Analysis13
Affordability
Qualityof Life
EconomicStrength
PolicyThe Housing TrilemmaCities face tradeoffs in terms ofhousing affordability, job availabilityand quality of life. Comparing the100 largest MSAs in the country.
Source: David Albouy, BEA, BLS, Census, IHS Global Insight, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Youngstown, OH
Detroit, MI •
Cincinnati, OH •
• Omaha, NE
Oklahoma City, OK •
Des Moines, IA•
Houston, TX •
• Atlanta, GA• Phoenix, AZ
• Seattle, WA
Portland, OR •San Francisco, CA •
Boise, ID •• Austin, TXProvidence, RI •
Sacramento, CA •Salem, OR •
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Economic Analysis14
Demand is Back
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Economic Analysis15
Aside: Salem’s Bright Future
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Economic Analysis16
Boomers AgingIn Place
Local Kids Aging Into Adulthood
Mostly Migrants
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Economic Analysis17
There is No Supply
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Economic Analysis18
Prices and Econ 101
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Economic Analysis19
•Confidence•Labor•Lots•Land Use•Financing
Supply Constraints
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Economic Analysis20
Labor Costs are High but Not Showing Up in Wages
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Economic Analysis21
•Builder Confidence•Labor Costs•Finding Enough Workers•Lot Supply•Credit Availability
Lot Supply Constraints
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Economic Analysis22
Blame Idaho’s Land Use?
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Economic Analysis23
Finances Slowly Getting A Little Better
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Economic Analysis24
Shift in Demand
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Economic Analysis25
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Economic Analysis26
Peak Renter in Theory
Age 3750% Owner50% Renter
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Economic Analysis27
•Moar broader focus on region
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Economic Analysis28
Outlook: Better Balance
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Economic Analysis29
It’s 5 O’clock Somewhere
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Economic Analysis30
(503) 378-4052
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
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