quarterly hogs and pigs 09/27/2019 - cornell university · 2 quarterly hogs and pigs (september...

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

ISSN: 1949-1921

Released September 27, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States

Department of Agriculture (USDA).

United States Hog Inventory Up 3 Percent United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2019 was 77.7 million head. This was up 3 percent from

September 1, 2018, and up 3 percent from June 1, 2019. This is the highest September 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs

since the estimates began in 1988.

Breeding inventory, at 6.43 million head, was up 2 percent from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 71.2 million head, was up 4 percent from last year, and up 3 percent from last quarter. This is

the highest September 1 market hog inventory since the estimates began in 1988.

The June-August 2019 pig crop, at 35.3 million head, was up 3 percent from 2018. This is the largest June-August pig

crop since estimates began in 1970. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.18 million head, down 1 percent from

2018. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter

was a record high of 11.11 for the June-August period, compared to 10.72 last year.

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million head

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory - United States: September 1

2 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2019) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

United States hog producers intend to have 3.16 million sows farrow during the September-November 2019 quarter,

down 1 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2018, but up 2 percent from 2017. Intended

farrowings for December 2019-February 2020, at 3.11 million sows, are down slightly from 2019, but up 2 percent from

2018.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted

for 48 percent of the total United States hog inventory, unchanged from the previous year.

Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2018 through June 2019 were reviewed using final pig crop, official

slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the June 2019 all hogs and pigs inventory

was 0.2 percent. The net revision made to the March 2019 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.1 percent. A net revision of

1.0 percent was made to the December 2018-February 2019 pig crop.

Records Record highs for all hogs and pigs, market hogs, pig crop and pigs per litter, by quarter, can be found on page 13.

This report was approved on September 27, 2019.

Secretary of Agriculture

Designate

Warren P. Preston

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Joseph L. Parsons

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2019) 3 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents

Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter – United States: 2018 and 2019 ......................................... 4

Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter – United States: 2017-2020 .......................................................................... 5

Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – United States: December-November 2018 and 2019 ................. 5

Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory – States and United States: March 1, 2018 and 2019 ............................................... 6

Market Inventory by Weight Group – States and United States: March 1, 2018 and 2019 .................................................... 6

Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory – States and United States: June 1, 2018 and 2019 .................................................. 7

Market Inventory by Weight Group – States and United States: June 1, 2018 and 2019 ....................................................... 7

Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory – States and United States: September 1, 2018 and 2019 ........................................ 8

Market Inventory by Weight Group – States and United States: September 1, 2018 and 2019 ............................................. 8

Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory – States and United States: December 1, 2017 and 2018 ......................................... 9

Market Inventory by Weight Group – States and United States: December 1, 2017 and 2018 .............................................. 9

Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – States and United States: December-February 2018-2020 ..................... 10

Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – States and United States: March-May 2018 and 2019 ............................ 10

Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – States and United States: June-August 2018 and 2019 ........................... 11

Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – States and United States: September-November 2017-2019 .................. 11

Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 12

Reliability of Quarterly Hog Estimates ................................................................................................................................. 12

Records by Quarter – United States: 1866 to Present ........................................................................................................... 13

Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 13


Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter – United States: 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Item 2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

(1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent)

March 1 inventory .................................................................................... All hogs and pigs .................................................................................. Kept for breeding .............................................................................. Market .............................................................................................. Market hogs and pigs by weight groups ............................................... Under 50 pounds .............................................................................. 50-119 pounds ................................................................................. 120-179 pounds ............................................................................... 180 pounds and over ........................................................................ June 1 inventory ....................................................................................... All hogs and pigs .................................................................................. Kept for breeding .............................................................................. Market .............................................................................................. Market hogs and pigs by weight groups ............................................... Under 50 pounds .............................................................................. 50-119 pounds ................................................................................. 120-179 pounds ............................................................................... 180 pounds and over ........................................................................ September 1 inventory ............................................................................. All hogs and pigs .................................................................................. Kept for breeding .............................................................................. Market .............................................................................................. Market hogs and pigs by weight groups ............................................... Under 50 pounds .............................................................................. 50-119 pounds ................................................................................. 120-179 pounds ............................................................................... 180 pounds and over ........................................................................ December 1 inventory .............................................................................. All hogs and pigs .................................................................................. Kept for breeding .............................................................................. Market .............................................................................................. Market hogs and pigs by weight groups ............................................... Under 50 pounds .............................................................................. 50-119 pounds ................................................................................. 120-179 pounds ............................................................................... 180 pounds and over ........................................................................

72,748 6,210

66,538

20,942 18,212 14,996 12,387

72,866 6,320

66,546

21,327 19,083 13,988 12,147

75,136 6,330

68,806

22,192 20,357 14,066 12,190

74,915 6,326

68,590

21,599 19,297 14,412 13,282

75,086 6,349

68,738

21,466 19,289 15,058 12,925

75,700 6,410

69,291

22,019 19,606 14,517 13,149

77,678 6,431

71,248

22,616 20,849 14,814 12,969

103 102 103

103 106 100 104

104 101 104

103 103 104 108

103 102 104

102 102 105 106


Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter – United States: 2017-2020 [December preceding year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Item 2017 2018 2019 2020 2019 as percent of 2020 as

percent of 2019 2017 2018

(1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (percent)

Sows farrowing ......................... December-February 2 ........... March-May ............................ December-May 1 ................... June-August ......................... September-November 3 ........ June-November 1 4 ................ Pig crop .................................... December-February .............. March-May ............................ December-May 1 ................... June-August ......................... September-November ........... June-November 1 ..................

2,990 3,018 6,007

3,106 3,103 6,209

31,187 31,839 63,025

33,075 33,328 66,402

3,034 3,100 6,134

3,200 3,174 6,374

32,101 32,942 65,042

34,320 34,154 68,475

3,114 3,108 6,222

3,179 3,155 6,334

33,327 34,177 67,504

35,306

3,110

104 103 104

102 102 102

107 107 107

107

103 100 101

99 99 99

104 104 104

103

100

(number) (number) (number) (percent) (percent)

Pigs per litter ............................ December-February .............. March-May ............................ December-May ..................... June-August ......................... September-November ........... June-November ....................

10.43 10.55 10.49

10.65 10.74 10.69

10.58 10.63 10.60

10.72 10.76 10.74

10.70 11.00 10.85

11.11

103 104 103

104

101 103 102

104

1 May not add due to rounding. 2 Intentions for 2020. 3 Intentions for 2019. 4 Actual farrowings for June-August plus intentions for September-November.

Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – United States: December-November 2018 and 2019 [December preceding year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Month Sows farrowing 1 Pigs per litter Pig crop 1

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019

(1,000 head) (1,000 head) (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head)

December ........................ January ........................... February .......................... March .............................. April ................................. May ................................. June ................................ July .................................. August ............................. September ....................... October ........................... November ........................ Total ................................

1,026 1,016

992 1,062 1,013 1,025 1,085 1,054 1,062 1,093 1,047 1,034

12,508

1,046 1,042 1,027 1,066 1,019 1,023 1,083 1,054 1,042

10.62 10.49 10.63 10.59 10.52 10.77 10.62 10.65 10.90 10.65 10.84 10.80

10.67

10.72 10.68 10.71 10.85 11.01 11.13 11.02 11.10 11.20

10,894 10,661 10,546 11,245 10,658 11,038 11,523 11,229 11,569 11,636 11,347 11,171

133,517

11,209 11,125 10,993 11,568 11,219 11,390 11,935 11,696 11,676

1 Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to rounding.


Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory – States and United States: March 1, 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding]

State

Breeding Market Total

2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

(1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent)

Colorado ...................... Illinois ........................... Indiana ......................... Iowa ............................. Kansas ......................... Michigan ...................... Minnesota .................... Missouri ....................... Nebraska ..................... North Carolina .............. Ohio ............................. Oklahoma .................... Pennsylvania ............... South Dakota ............... Texas ........................... Utah ............................. Other States 1 .............. United States ...............

155 550 260

1,020 160 120 570 455 420 900

190 445 110 235 145 75

400

6,210

155 560 260

1,030 170 120 580 470 450 900

190 450 120 245 150 80

419

6,349

100 102 100 101 106 100 102 103 107 100

100 101 109 104 103 107

105

102

625 4,750 3,790

21,580 1,900 1,080 7,930 2,995 3,030 8,000

2,460 1,725 1,100 1,425

975 430

2,743

66,538

645 4,690 3,940

22,670 1,880 1,120 8,220 3,080 3,150 8,100

2,460 1,730 1,150 1,605

950 670

2,678

68,738

103 99

104 105 99

104 104 103 104 101

100 100 105 113 97

156

98

103

780 5,300 4,050

22,600 2,060 1,200 8,500 3,450 3,450 8,900

2,650 2,170 1,210 1,660 1,120

505

3,143

72,748

800 5,250 4,200

23,700 2,050 1,240 8,800 3,550 3,600 9,000

2,650 2,180 1,270 1,850 1,100

750

3,096

75,086

103 99

104 105 100 103 104 103 104 101

100 100 105 111 98

149

99

103

1 Individual State estimates not available for the 34 Other States.

Market Inventory by Weight Group – States and United States: March 1, 2018 and 2019 [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding]

State

Under 50 pounds

50-119 pounds

120-179 pounds

180 pounds and over

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019

(1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head)

Colorado ........................ Illinois ............................. Indiana ........................... Iowa ............................... Kansas ........................... Michigan ........................ Minnesota ...................... Missouri ......................... Nebraska ....................... North Carolina ................ Ohio ............................... Oklahoma ...................... Pennsylvania ................. South Dakota ................. Texas ............................. Utah ............................... Other States 1 ................ United States .................

285 1,465

965 5,490

405 320

2,630 1,455 1,040 3,240

680 735 290 510 270 155

1,007

20,942

290 1,415 1,040 5,510

480 330

2,590 1,555 1,060 3,190

720 800 315 590 275 295

1,011

21,466

120 1,465 1,140 6,670

540 265

2,360 560 775

1,720

610 335 305 370 270 90

617

18,212

135 1,555 1,100 7,510

440 300

2,400 560 880

1,700

640 360 325 390 260 120

614

19,289

105 980 860

5,460 410 245

1,790 530 670

1,710

600 260 270 280 185 95

546

14,996

105 1,000

920 5,630

395 225

1,860 505 690

1,590

520 210 245 320 180 130

533

15,058

115 840 825

3,960 545 250

1,150 450 545

1,330

570 395 235 265 250 90

572

12,387

115 720 880

4,020 565 265

1,370 460 520

1,620

580 360 265 305 235 125

520

12,925



Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory – States and United States: June 1, 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding]

State


2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018


Colorado ...................... Illinois .......................... Indiana ........................ Iowa ............................. Kansas ........................ Michigan ...................... Minnesota .................... Missouri ....................... Nebraska ..................... North Carolina ............. Ohio ............................. Oklahoma .................... Pennsylvania ............... South Dakota ............... Texas .......................... Utah ............................. Other States 1 .............. United States ...............

155 570 250

1,040 165 120 580 460 430 910

190 460 120 240 145 80

405

6,320

160 590 260

1,000 175 120 570 480 460 900

200 445 120 265 155 80

430

6,410

103 104 104 96

106 100 98

104 107 99

105 97

100 110 107 100

106

101

605 4,780 3,700

21,560 1,875 1,080 7,920 3,040 3,070 7,990

2,460 1,690 1,170 1,440

995 450

2,721

66,546

620 4,710 3,990

22,800 1,845 1,130 8,130 3,120 3,240 8,300

2,550 1,715 1,100 1,605

935 750

2,751

69,291

102 99

108 106 98

105 103 103 106 104

104 101 94

111 94

167

101

104

760 5,350 3,950

22,600 2,040 1,200 8,500 3,500 3,500 8,900

2,650 2,150 1,290 1,680 1,140

530

3,126

72,866

780 5,300 4,250

23,800 2,020 1,250 8,700 3,600 3,700 9,200

2,750 2,160 1,220 1,870 1,090

830

3,180

75,700

103 99

108 105 99

104 102 103 106 103

104 100 95

111 96

157

102

104


Market Inventory by Weight Group – States and United States: June 1, 2018 and 2019 [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding]

State

Under 50 pounds

50-119 pounds

120-179 pounds

180 pounds and over

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019


Colorado ........................ Illinois ............................ Indiana .......................... Iowa ............................... Kansas .......................... Michigan ........................ Minnesota ...................... Missouri ......................... Nebraska ....................... North Carolina ............... Ohio ............................... Oklahoma ...................... Pennsylvania ................. South Dakota ................. Texas ............................ Utah ............................... Other States 1 ................ United States .................

290 1,550

940 5,560

420 310

2,610 1,505 1,050 3,370

670 785 310 510 300 175

972

21,327

295 1,435 1,060 5,850

460 320

2,570 1,540 1,100 3,370

730 800 305 580 285 325

994

22,019

120 1,460 1,150 7,080

515 290

2,430 590 840

1,840

630 400 355 380 275 90

638

19,083

130 1,500 1,150 7,450

490 320

2,530 530 860

1,830

660 365 345 430 235 150

631

19,606

95 930 780

5,200 375 220

1,760 475 600

1,450

580 215 250 270 165 90

533

13,988

100 950 840

5,450 385 230

1,740 525 630

1,500

590 220 235 290 145 140

547

14,517

100 840 830

3,720 565 260

1,120 470 580

1,330

580 290 255 280 255 95

577

12,147

95 825 940

4,050 510 260

1,290 525 650

1,600

570 330 215 305 270 135

579

13,149



Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory – States and United States: September 1, 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding]

State


2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018


Colorado ...................... Illinois ........................... Indiana ......................... Iowa ............................. Kansas ......................... Michigan ...................... Minnesota .................... Missouri ....................... Nebraska ..................... North Carolina .............. Ohio ............................. Oklahoma .................... Pennsylvania ............... South Dakota ............... Texas ........................... Utah ............................. Other States 1 .............. United States ...............

155 570 250

1,040 170 120 580 465 430 910

190 460 120 245 145 80

400

6,330

160 590 250

1,010 175 120 580 490 450 900

200 460 120 265 155 80

426

6,431

103 104 100 97

103 100 100 105 105 99

105 100 100 108 107 100

106

102

625 4,880 3,950

22,560 1,860 1,100 8,020 3,285 3,020 8,390

2,360 1,820 1,190 1,475

985 525

2,761

68,806

620 4,710 4,050

23,890 1,905 1,120 8,420 3,110 3,300 8,600

2,540 1,780 1,130 1,735 1,035

880

2,423

71,248

99 97

103 106 102 102 105 95

109 103

108 98 95

118 105 168

88

104

780 5,450 4,200

23,600 2,030 1,220 8,600 3,750 3,450 9,300

2,550 2,280 1,310 1,720 1,130

605

3,161

75,136

780 5,300 4,300

24,900 2,080 1,240 9,000 3,600 3,750 9,500

2,740 2,240 1,250 2,000 1,190

960

2,848

77,678

100 97

102 106 102 102 105 96

109 102

107 98 95

116 105 159

90

103


Market Inventory by Weight Group – States and United States: September 1, 2018 and 2019 [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding]

State

Under 50 pounds

50-119 pounds

120-179 pounds

180 pounds and over

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019


Colorado ........................... Illinois ................................ Indiana .............................. Iowa .................................. Kansas .............................. Michigan ........................... Minnesota ......................... Missouri ............................ Nebraska .......................... North Carolina ................... Ohio .................................. Oklahoma ......................... Pennsylvania .................... South Dakota .................... Texas ................................ Utah .................................. Other States 1 ................... United States ....................

305 1,570

990 5,900

445 330

2,720 1,605 1,010 3,450

650 845 325 520 310 220

997

22,192

295 1,390 1,040 6,210

480 300

2,830 1,480 1,140 3,360

730 795 305 645 335 355

926

22,616

150 1,580 1,240 7,750

530 290

2,530 640 865

2,000

640 385 340 405 275 105

632

20,357

120 1,570 1,200 7,930

500 300

2,750 590 890

2,120

690 455 325 440 280 175

514

20,849

95 890 870

5,210 385 220

1,700 530 570

1,520

500 230 270 275 150 105

546

14,066

100 900 860

5,610 375 240

1,730 545 670

1,590

540 230 270 310 190 175

479

14,814

75 840 850

3,700 500 260

1,070 510 575

1,420

570 360 255 275 250 95

585

12,190

105 850 950

4,140 550 280

1,110 495 600

1,530

580 300 230 340 230 175

504

12,969



Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory – States and United States: December 1, 2017 and 2018 [May not add due to rounding]

State


2017 2018 2018 as percent of 2017

2017 2018 2018 as percent of 2017

2017 2018 2018 as percent of 2017


Colorado ...................... Illinois .......................... Indiana ........................ Iowa ............................. Kansas ........................ Michigan ...................... Minnesota .................... Missouri ....................... Nebraska ..................... North Carolina ............. Ohio ............................. Oklahoma .................... Pennsylvania ............... South Dakota ............... Texas .......................... Utah ............................. Other States 1 .............. United States ...............

150 530 260

1,000 165 120 570 450 430 900

190 460 110 215 140 80

409

6,179

155 560 260

1,020 170 120 570 470 440 900

200 445 120 255 150 80

411

6,326

103 106 100 102 103 100 100 104 102 100

105 97

109 119 107 100

100

102

600 4,870 3,740

21,800 1,945 1,070 7,930 2,950 3,170 8,100

2,510 1,740 1,130 1,345

910 470

2,686

66,966

595 4,790 3,940

22,480 1,870 1,050 8,430 3,130 3,060 8,200

2,350 1,745 1,190 1,485

960 630

2,685

68,590

99 98

105 103 96 98

106 106 97

101

94 100 105 110 105 134

100

102

750 5,400 4,000

22,800 2,110 1,190 8,500 3,400 3,600 9,000

2,700 2,200 1,240 1,560 1,050

550

3,095

73,145

750 5,350 4,200

23,500 2,040 1,170 9,000 3,600 3,500 9,100

2,550 2,190 1,310 1,740 1,110

710

3,095

74,915

100 99

105 103 97 98

106 106 97

101

94 100 106 112 106 129

100

102


Market Inventory by Weight Group – States and United States: December 1, 2017 and 2018 [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding]

State

Under 50 pounds

50-119 pounds

120-179 pounds

180 pounds and over

2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018



255 1,550

980 5,800

475 330

2,720 1,450 1,030 3,190

740 735 305 460 240 185

962

21,407

270 1,530 1,010 5,600

445 310

2,830 1,600 1,030 3,190

670 745 335 565 270 240

959

21,599

130 1,480 1,040 6,870

520 240

2,350 560 840

1,790

660 430 335 365 240 85

609

18,544

125 1,500 1,200 7,400

515 280

2,460 550 790

1,780

610 390 335 365 260 125

612

19,297

115 920 775

5,080 425 245

1,600 445 640

1,570

560 230 250 270 180 100

520

13,925

85 910 820

5,260 380 210

1,830 510 610

1,600

520 280 265 285 170 135

542

14,412

100 920 945

4,050 525 255

1,260 495 660

1,550

550 345 240 250 250 100

594

13,089

115 850 910

4,220 530 250

1,310 470 630

1,630

550 330 255 270 260 130

572

13,282



Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – States and United States: December-February 2018-2020 [December preceding year. May not add due to rounding]

State

Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop 1

2018 2019 2020 2 2020 as percent of 2019

2018 2019 2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

(1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent)

Colorado ................... Illinois ........................ Indiana ...................... Iowa .......................... Kansas ...................... Michigan ................... Minnesota ................. Missouri .................... Nebraska .................. North Carolina ........... Ohio .......................... Oklahoma ................. Pennsylvania ............ South Dakota ............ Texas ........................ Utah .......................... Other States 3 ........... United States ............

72 260 130 550 79 53

295 225 180 445

91

200 48

113 60 36

197

3,034

78 270 125 530 86 56

300 245 185 455

93

205 55

119 66 40

206

3,114

79 270 115 520 88 50

270 250 200 465

100 210 49

123 70 43

208

3,110

101 100 92 98

102 89 90

102 108 102

108 102 89

103 106 108

101

100

9.70 10.60 10.45 11.00 10.20 10.70 11.20 10.15 11.70 9.90

10.80 10.60 10.60 11.45 9.90 7.70

10.08

10.58

9.20 10.65 10.20 11.20 10.60 10.90 11.60 10.55 11.55 9.90

10.70 10.65 10.80 11.85 10.20 9.20

10.05

10.70

698 2,756 1,359 6,050

806 567

3,304 2,284 2,106 4,406

983

2,120 509

1,294 594 277

1,988

32,101

718 2,876 1,275 5,936

912 610

3,480 2,585 2,137 4,505

995

2,183 594

1,410 673 368

2,070

33,327

103 104 94 98

113 108 105 113 101 102

101 103 117 109 113 133

104

104

1 Number of pigs born December-February that were still on hand March 1, or had been sold. 2 Intentions. 3 Individual State estimates not available for the 34 Other States.

Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – States and United States: March-May 2018-2019 [May not add due to rounding]

State


2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

2018 2019 2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

(1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent)

Colorado ....................... Illinois ............................ Indiana .......................... Iowa .............................. Kansas .......................... Michigan ....................... Minnesota ..................... Missouri ........................ Nebraska ...................... North Carolina ............... Ohio .............................. Oklahoma ..................... Pennsylvania ................ South Dakota ................ Texas ............................ Utah .............................. Other States 2 ............... United States ................

75 275 115 560 76 53

310 240 190 455

88

205 50

110 64 34

200

3,100

78 270 115 520 86 54

285 240 195 460

98

215 54

123 66 43

206

3,108

104 98

100 93

113 102 92

100 103 101

111 105 108 112 103 126

103

100

9.60 10.70 10.30 11.10 10.10 10.90 11.20 10.20 11.30 10.10

11.00 10.70 10.50 11.70 9.80 7.60

10.06

10.63

10.70 10.75 10.70 11.45 10.70 11.00 11.85 10.65 11.50 10.50

11.20 10.55 11.10 11.95 10.50 10.70

10.41

11.00

720 2,943 1,185 6,216

768 578

3,472 2,448 2,147 4,596

968

2,194 525

1,287 627 258

2,010

32,942

835 2,903 1,231 5,954

920 594

3,377 2,556 2,243 4,830

1,098 2,268

599 1,470

693 460

2,146

34,177

116 99

104 96

120 103 97

104 104 105

113 103 114 114 111 178

107

104

1 Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold. 2 Individual State estimates not available for the 34 Other States.


Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – States and United States: June-August 2018 and 2019 [May not add due to rounding]

State


2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

2018 2019 2018 2019 2019 as percent of 2018

(1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent)


80 265 125 580 87 57

305 255 185 485

89

210 51

117 69 39

201

3,200

78 280 115 540 87 53

290 250 190 480

97

220 50

126 70 44

209

3,179

98 106 92 93

100 93 95 98

103 99

109 105 98

108 101 113

104

99

9.50 10.65 10.50 11.20 10.90 10.80 11.15 10.45 11.30 10.30

10.90 10.65 10.70 11.10 10.10 11.00

10.10

10.72

10.70 10.95 11.00 11.35 10.90 11.10 11.95 11.10 11.65 10.50

11.30 10.90 11.30 11.85 10.90 11.00

10.44

11.11

760 2,822 1,313 6,496

948 616

3,401 2,665 2,091 4,996

970

2,237 546

1,299 697 429

2,034

34,320

835 3,066 1,265 6,129

948 588

3,466 2,775 2,214 5,040

1,096 2,398

565 1,493

763 484

2,181

35,306

110 109 96 94

100 95

102 104 106 101

113 107 103 115 109 113

107

103

1 Number of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September 1, or had been sold. 2 Individual State estimates not available for the 34 Other States.

Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop – States and United States: September-November 2017-2019 [May not add due to rounding]

State


2017 2018 2019 2 2019 as percent of 2018

2017 2018 2017 2018 2018 as percent of 2017

(1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent)

Colorado .................... Illinois ........................ Indiana ...................... Iowa ........................... Kansas ...................... Michigan .................... Minnesota .................. Missouri ..................... Nebraska ................... North Carolina ........... Ohio ........................... Oklahoma .................. Pennsylvania ............. South Dakota ............. Texas ........................ Utah ........................... Other States 3 ............ United States .............

72 265 135 550 83 53

315 235 195 460

94

195 49

105 60 35

202

3,103

75 275 125 560 85 54

300 250 190 470

99

205 52

127 67 37

203

3,174

73 280 120 530 86 54

280 250 205 470

102 215 49

124 69 44

204

3,155

97 102 96 95

101 100 93

100 108 100

103 105 94 98

103 119

101

99

10.20 10.70 10.35 11.15 10.80 10.90 11.45 10.40 11.70 10.20

10.80 10.70 10.40 11.45 9.20 9.00

10.15

10.74

9.60 10.65 10.60 11.20 10.90 10.50 11.40 10.60 11.45 10.15

10.60 10.60 11.00 11.65 10.40 10.00

10.15

10.76

734 2,836 1,397 6,133

896 578

3,607 2,444 2,282 4,692

1,015 2,087

510 1,202

552 315

2,048

33,328

720 2,929 1,325 6,272

927 567

3,420 2,650 2,176 4,771

1,049 2,173

572 1,480

697 370

2,056

34,154

98 103 95

102 103 98 95

108 95

102

103 104 112 123 126 117

100

102

1 Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold. 2 Intentions. 3 Individual State estimates not available for the 34 Other States.


Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 5,200 United States producers was surveyed to provide data for these

estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the

survey. Large operations were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of September 2019, data

were collected from about 3,800 operations, 73.0 percent of the total sample. The data collected were received by

electronic data reporting, mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded,

they were asked to report inventories as of September 1, 2019.

Estimating Procedures: Hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing

recommendations and analysis submitted by each regional field office. National and State survey data were reviewed for

reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with

the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports,

and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for

reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the

previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of

the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter.

Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are

available. No revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling

variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in

reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized

through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for

consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for

selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance

and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory

estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be

above or below the current estimate of 77.7 million head by more than 1.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the

difference will not exceed 1.7 percent.

Reliability of Quarterly Hog Estimates [Based on data for the previous twenty quarters]

Item Root mean

square error

90 percent confidence

level

Difference between first and latest estimate

Average Smallest Largest Quarters

Below latest Above latest

(percent) (percent) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (number) (number)

All hogs and pigs ............................ Pig crop ......................................... Expected farrowings Second intentions ...................... First intentions ............................

1.0

1.7

2.2

2.4

1.7

2.9

3.8

4.1

539

392

51

57

60

0

4

3

1,576

1,158

133

149

12

13

17

16

8

6

3

4


Records by Quarter – United States: 1866 to Present [This table provides data users with record high estimates of all hogs and pigs, market hogs, pig crop, and pigs per litter since each data series began]

Item Estimate Record high Series began

(1,000 head) (year) (year)

All hogs and pigs March 1 .......................................................... June 1 ............................................................. September 1 ................................................... December 1 .................................................... Market March 1 .......................................................... June 1 ............................................................. September 1 ................................................... December 1 .................................................... Pig crop December-February1 ...................................... March-May ...................................................... June-August ................................................... September-November .....................................

75,086 75,700 77,678 83,741

68,738 69,291 71,248 68,590

33,327 34,177 35,306 34,154

2019 2019 2019 1943

2019 2019 2019 2018

2019 2019 2019 2018

1988 1964 1988 1866

1988 1964 1988 1963

1970 1970 1970 1970

(number) (year) (year)

Pigs per litter December-February1 ...................................... March-May ...................................................... June-August ................................................... September-November .....................................

10.70 11.00 11.11 10.76

2019 2019 2019 2018

1970 1970 1970 1970

1 December preceding year.

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to

contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected].

Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........................................................................................................... (202) 690-2424

Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter ................................................................................................ (202) 690-8632

Holly Brenize – Sheep and Goats ............................................................................................................. (202) 720-0585

Donnie Fike – Dairy Products .................................................................................................................. (202) 720-4448

Heidi Lanouette – Cattle, Cattle on Feed ................................................................................................. (202) 720-3040

Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows ....................................................................................... (202) 720-3278

Seth Riggins – Hogs and Pigs .................................................................................................................. (202) 720-3106

Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:

All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov

Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free

subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on “National” or “State” in upper right corner above “search”

box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive.

Cornell’s Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS’s and other agency’s archived reports. The

new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new

website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the

new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or

subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-

esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders.

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540,

7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: [email protected].

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for

employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where

applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's

income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program

or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or

employment activities.)

If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination

Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or

at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the

information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of

Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax

(202) 690-7442 or email at [email protected].

https://www.nass.usda.gov/

https://www.nass.usda.gov/

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help

mailto:[email protected]


http://www.ocio.usda.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2012/Complain_combined_6_8_12.pdf

http://www.ocio.usda.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2012/Complain_combined_6_8_12.pdf

http://www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer


USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting Tuesday, October 15, 2019

American Farm Bureau Federation

600 Maryland Ave SW #1000w

Washington, DC 20024

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will hold an open forum for users of U.S. domestic and

international agriculture data. NASS is organizing the Data Users’ Meeting in cooperation with five other

USDA agencies – Agricultural Marketing Service, Economic Research Service, Farm Service Agency, Foreign

Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board – and the Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade

Division. Agency representatives will provide updates on recent and pending changes in statistical and

information programs important to agriculture, answer questions, and welcome comments and input from data

users.

For registration details and additional information about the Data Users’ Meeting, see the meeting page on the

NASS website (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/index.php). Contact Vernita

Murray (NASS) at 202-690-8141 or [email protected] or Patricia Snipe (NASS) at 202-720-2248

or [email protected] for information.

USDA

Data Users’ Meeting

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/index.php

quarterly hogs and pigs 09/27/2019 - cornell university · 2 quarterly hogs and pigs (september...

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