profit angles - cheltenham festival 2019...profit angles - cheltenham festival 2019 (races to be run...
TRANSCRIPT
www.againstthecrowd.co.uk
Profit Angles -
Cheltenham Festival
2019
(Races to be run Tuesday 12th March to Friday
15th March)
The case against Festival
favourites….
It happens. Favourites and short-horses win from time to time – as you’d
expect.
But they don’t win frequently enough to make the exercise of backing
them worthwhile….
Especially not in the races we target at Against the Crowd – the big-field
handicaps….
Of the last 782 outright favourites to go to post in a NH handicap worth
£20k+ to the winner in a field of 14+ runners, 668 lost....
That’s a losing strike-rate of 85.4%. Betting losses amount to 210 points.
If you’re thinking of becoming a fav-backer, those figures make for sober
reading….
As a long-term betting proposition, favourites make no appeal. Especially
not in big handicaps. Favourites lose punters money. Hand over fist....
That’s an instructive lesson worth carrying into the Cheltenham Festival
when it gets underway in March....
• Plenty of winners….
On the face of it you can do well with favourites in the non-handicap
events at the Festival….
By ‘well’ I mean you will succeed in backing more winners then most. You
will enjoy more visits to the pay-out window than the average Joe....
I’ve got figures going all the way back to the 2002 Festival. And I can tell
you that 245 outright favourites went to post in a non-handicap race at
the meeting over that time….
I can tell you that 84 of those horses justified their position in the market
– and their short-prices – by winning their respective races. That’s a
strike-rate of 34.2%....
Okay, it’s not quite the 40% strike-rate you get when you look at
favourites in non-handicap races across the entire racing programme….
But the Festival is an exceptionally competitive meeting....
All the best horses show up. Everything is trying. Nothing is being saved
for another day. And 34.2% is about as high a strike-rate as you’ve got
any right to expect....
• Running on the spot….
In Festival terms, 34.2% is a hell of a winning strike-rate....
But you wouldn’t have won a brass ring backing all the favourites to level
stakes. Not a single full point....
Instead you’d have lost money. You’d have come out of it 5.1 points in
arrears....
That’s right, you’d have lost 5.1 points off the back of 245 bets over a 17-
year-period. It would be a depressing way to waste 17-years-worth of
Festivals....
I think in textbooks they refer to this phenomenon as market efficiency….
Over the long term the frequency of winning favourites and the prices
about them conspire to produce a neutral bottom-line outcome. You get
to do a fair bit of paddling about – but it gets you precisely nowhere….
It’s a lot of effort and turnover to end up on the same exact spot you
started out from….
Backing favourites doesn’t pay in non-handicap races at the Festival. Not
over the long-term. That’s the bottom-line. That’s what the figures tell
us....
• In the handicaps, you get spanked….
It certainly doesn’t pay to play the favourites and the fancied horses in
the big-field, ferociously competitive handicap events run at the Festival….
If you’d backed all the outright favourites in Festival handicaps since 2002
you’d have backed 150 horses, cheered home 18 winners, endured 132
losers and posted losses of 47 points….
Backing the 2nd favourite produced a similar story. Just 23 winners from
205 qualifiers at 11.2% with level stakes losses amounting to 28.5
points….
And it was the same again with 3rd favourites over the period. Just 19
winners from 204 qualifiers at 9.3% and losses weighing in at 27 points….
The strike-rates aren’t great to begin with. And, when they do go in, the
prices are not good enough to claw back lost ground....
In short, the fancied horses in Festival handicaps are repeatedly over-
estimated, consistently over-bet, and frequently under-priced....
You cannot and will not make money backing them long-term....
Of course, the short-horses go in from time to time. But focusing
exclusively on horses at the top end of handicap markets will see you
gradually go broke – and that’s true across the board and not just at the
Festival....
• Ultra-competitive….
The fact is that Festival races are always more competitive than the
market would have you believe....
When the market goes in heavy on a specific horse – forcing the price
down – it can give the impression that the horse is somehow unbeatable.
And that attracts more money from the lemmings. The price contracts
further. And so on....
The price reflects the money bet on a horse. But the price is not always a
fair reflection of the horse’s true chances of winning its race. And, at the
Festival, more times than not, the short horses are over-bet to prices that
over-estimate the true winning chance of the horses concerned....
The Festival is the pinnacle of jumps racing. All the best horses show up –
at least those free of injury or illness. Everything is trying. Everybody
wants to win....
Every horse has been meticulously prepared for its Festival race. Rarely is
one horse so superior to the rest that the race turns into a procession – a
coronation job....
The Festival hosts some of the most competitive racing you will see on a
British racecourse. Almost every field will contain multiple horses capable
of winning if things go right. And that’s one reason why so many sure-
things have crashed and burned and got turned over on the day....
It isn’t that something went wrong or that they turned into bad horses.
It’s just that the market over-estimated their true chances of winning and
under-estimated the chances of equally talented rivals....
• No complaints....
But I’m not complaining. Far from it.
The market’s tendency to latch onto and over-bet specific horses plays
right into my contrarian hands....
When the market over-bets a horse into a short price that over-estimates
its true chances of winning, it means that other horses further down the
market are under-bet – trading at big prices that under-estimate their
true chances of winning....
Those are the horses I like to bet at all the major meetings – including
the Cheltenham Festival....
I like to back horses with live chances trading at big prices that
underestimate their ability and their chances of winning.
In other words, my mission is to find and back the right horses at the
wrong prices....
It’s not easy. Success is certainly not guaranteed. But that’s the way I
play. And it’s the way I’ll be playing the handicaps at this season’s
Cheltenham Festival in March. You can rely on it….
Stats are useful – but it all boils down
to the horse….
The bigger, more valuable and more prestigious the race, the stronger the
stats are as a guide.
Year on year horses that win, and/or get competitive in those races, tend
to tick specific boxes heading into the race….
They have met specific standards, they boast specific credentials, they
have passed specific tests and collected specific qualifications.
But there’s an important additional point to bear in mind when you’re
working with those pointers....
• The stats are a starting point….
Ultimately, every bet I place is based on an assessment of individual
horses....
Each horse is different. Each has its own unique quirks and
characteristics....
Each horse is in a specific time and place on the curve....
Each horse must be taken on a case-by-case basis within the context of the individual race, the conditions the race presents and the unique set of
circumstances surrounding it....
Stats are a useful and informative starting point – an initial route into a race. That’s how I use the stats....
The statistical record can tell you a great deal about the type of horse
that tends to win a specific contest. It can point you to horses of interest.
But we should always be mindful that there are limits to what the stats can achieve....
The statistical record can tell you that younger horses have a far better
record in a specific race than older horses. Or that horses that have met a specific form-based yardstick are traditionally of most interest....
But beyond that the stats are silent. They can’t tell you if an individual
horse is fit. Or that it will go on the ground. Or that it isn’t suited to a specific track. Or that its yard is out of form....
• Not a winning formula….
The stats act as a guide. They can offer clues and pointers on which you
can base a deeper investigation into a specific horse. They are a starting
point – as opposed to an out-and-out selection tool....
Ultimately, wherever the stats point you must come back to the individual horses.
There is no getting away from that – unless you are happy to bet
mechanically (and there’s nothing wrong with that, if that’s the way you choose to play)....
I don’t look at these stats as a winning formula – a case of A+B+C+D+E
= winner. The game is a little more complex and idiosyncratic than that....
Instead, I approach the stats merely as another piece in the information
puzzle – one that might lead to the horses which are worth looking at
more closely....
• It is all about the horses….
I say it again. Where horse-racing is concerned, it’s all about the horses....
You can’t get around them. You can’t get away from them. But I think
that’s what a lot of punters try to do....
Studying horses and trying to figure them out is hard work – even when you enjoy it and you’ve been at the exercise for years....
Shove a 20-runner handicap under the nose of the average punter and tell him he’s got to take a view on each of the individual runners – based
on profile, performance & preparation – and he’s going to run a mile....
Some punters are busy and don’t have time. Others are lazy and can’t be bothered. Some don’t know what they’re doing. Others are not inclined to
learn. Each of these people is looking for short-cuts....
Stats, mechanical systems, databases, Holy Grail algorithms – all these things represent shortcuts. They pander to the view that there is some
way of winning at racing that doesn’t require any actual knowledge of the sport or the individual equine athletes that participate in it....
Don’t get me wrong. As, I’ve said, I use stats and databases myself. Both
are great tools – useful tools when used properly and when their
limitations are acknowledged and respected. But they are not magic....
• There is no sorcery you can call on….
A database is not a witch doctor. A database is just a database. It’s just another way of accessing and interrogating information....
A database shouldn’t be confused with a software programme that
enables you to find a steady stream of winners at the click of a button.
A stat is not an incantation that brings desired race results to pass if you repeat it often enough. A stat is just a stat. It refers to things that
happened previously....
Whether an individual horse upholds a key stat at the Cheltenham
Festival, or in any other big race, will depend more on the horse than the previous strength of the stat....
In racing, it all boils down to the horses eventually. Stats don’t run races.
Nor do algorithms. Or systems. Horses do....
It doesn’t matter what statistical boxes a horse ticks, because it won’t win a big race if it isn’t fit, isn’t firing, isn’t suited to ground and track or faces
some other condition or circumstances that represents a big negative….
Those are useful facts to hold in your mind when you come to work with our handicap and big-race pointers....
The pointers act as a guide and a starting point rather than a stand-alone
winner-finding system.
Ultimately, it all boils down to the horse. You cannot leave the specifics of the horse out of the equation....
Playing the handicap chases at the
Festival….
There are quite a few handicap chases to target at the Cheltenham
Festival in March….
Each will see a big-field go to post – a big-field of horses each of a similar
level. All of them will be trying. Some of them will have been laid out
specifically for the job. Nothing is being saved for another day....
You rarely see an easy winner of a Festival handicap. The pace is always
red-hot. Challenges come thick and fast from start to finish. As one
challenger falls away, another invariably comes with its run and replaces
it....
These are tough races in which to come out on top. A horse can run the
race of its life in a Festival handicap – and still not win. A punter can place
a cracking bet at a big price and still not be rewarded with a pay-out….
But it is the live contenders at big prices that make the handicap chases
must-play events for me. Tough as they are, they cannot be dodged….
• A quartet of handicap chase targets….
I don’t get involved in the novice handicap events. I prefer the open-
events where I know a little more about the individual runners, their
quirks, preferences and peculiarities….
• On day 1, we have the Ultima Handicap Chase over 25-furlongs....
• On day 3, we have the Brown Advisory Plate over 21-furlongs and the Kim Muir over 26-furlongs for amateur riders….
• On day 4, the Grand Annual over the 16-furlong trip is the feature
for handicap buffs….
None of these events is easy to solve. There are no guaranteed winners.
There are no guaranteed placers. It is a case of spot the undervalued
horse, take the price and then hope the horse justifies your faith on the
day….
At least things will be made a little easier by the fact that 48-hour
declarations were introduced for the first time at last year’s Festival ….
It gives us a little more time to scrutinise the form of 20-odd-runners.
Even the most devoted formbook aficionado struggled to do a proper
form-reading job of all the runners with just the previous 24-hour notice
of the runners and riders....
In advance of the final declarations, the statistical record does at least
offer pointers that might come in useful when splitting fields and reducing
the number of runners of interest….
I’ve been studying the last 12 renewals of each of the 4 handicap chases
I’m interested in at Festival….
• Official ratings – your first port of call….
The first thing of interest to note is this: just two of the individual 48 winners of those races was rated higher than 148 on the official scale.
Un Temps Pour Tout won the Ultima for the second year in succession
in 2017 for David Pipe off a mark of 155 – 7lb higher than when winning
the year before. It was a hell of a performance....
Last year, the Paul Nicholls trained Le Prezien came out on top in the
Grand Annual off a mark of 150....
Charlie Longsdon summed things up nicely ahead of the 2017 Festival,
when saying: ‘You need nearly a stone in hand to win a Festival
handicap.’
Not many horses running in handicap chase events off official marks of
150+ are in fact 160+ horses....
In other words, the 150+ horses are handicapped up to the hilt. They
don’t have much, if anything at all, in hand. Hence their poor collective
performance in Festival handicaps over the last decade or so. Such horses
are always vulnerable to the progressive types that the handicapper
hasn’t quite got hold of yet….
38 of the 48 handicap chase winners over the last 12-years were rated
between 134 and 148 on the official scale.
If you’re looking for a quick and dirty method of splitting this season’s
handicap chase fields at the Festival, that last statement wouldn’t be a
bad place to start….
• Additional field-splitting pointers….
Only five horses aged 6 or younger have managed to win one of our
handicap chases over the last 12-years....
Just six have won a handicap chase event aged 10 or older.
The other 37 were aged 7- 8- or 9-years-old. That band is the clear
percentage play….
Only six horses have managed to win one of our handicap chase events having raced only 3 times or less over fences prior to showing up at the
Festival. Four of those horses were trained by David Pipe….
39 of our 48 winners had raced between 4 and 12 times over fences or were 3-run chasers trained by David Pipe….
43 of our 48 handicap chase winners had been off the track for at least 20
days before showing up at Cheltenham. Nobody has trained more Festival handicap chase winners off a break of 5-weeks+ than David Pipe. He’s
trained 8 such winners over the last 12-year-period.
Claimers don’t have a fabulous record in handicap chases. They have
produced 8 wins from 244 runs. Three of those wins were produced in the Kim Muir by amateur riders....
First-time headgear must be viewed with a little caution too…. Only 3 of
our 48 winners were wearing some form of headgear for the first time….
• Yards that don’t deliver – and two that do….
Of the last 43 beaten favourites in a Festival handicap chase 24 were
trained by Alan King, David Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill, Nicky Henderson or Paul
Nicholls. Horses from the ‘name’ yards frequently fail to live up to their
market billing….
Throughout the year, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson & Philip Hobbs win
plenty of big races – and more than their fair share of handicaps. Punters
like to back their horses.
But it’s not been a great move in handicap chases at the Festival over the
last decade. Between them those three headline-act trainers have
produced just 4 winners from 175 runners….
Maybe these trainers try so hard with their handicappers throughout the
winter – chasing the big Saturday prizes – that there’s little margin left by
the time they get them to the Festival? Maybe the Festival is just that bit
more competitive….
I don’t know. All I can tell you is that the stats suggest those three big
handlers are not the best source of bets in handicap chases at the
Festival….
David Pipe and Jonjo O’Neill are the guys with the numbers on the
board when it comes to the big handicap chase events run at Cheltenham
in March.
Pipe has won with 8 horses and hit the top-5 with another 14 over the
last 12-years – from a total representation of 82 runners….
O’Neill has won with 4 and hit the top-5 with another 9 from a
representation of 55 runners….
• The stats are only a guide….
The stats, of course, offer no cast-iron guarantees. They merely tell us
what happened in the past.
The stats can assist and guide us. They offer us a starting point. They can
direct our attention to horses that tick all the right boxes – as judged by
the historical record.
But, you can never take the individual horse out of the equation.
When it comes down to it, the individual horse must be able to do the job
in the circumstances and conditions served up on race day.
In other words, the stats do a decent job of splitting-the-field. They are
the first port of call. But when it comes down to isolating your specific
bet, nothing beats a detailed appraisal of the horse in question….
The stats above will lead you to horses worthy of that closer inspection
come March....
Playing the handicap hurdles at the
Festival….
To reiterate the point made in the previous section: Festival handicaps
are difficult races to win – for horses and for punters….
The whole of the National Hunt season pivots on the Cheltenham Festival.
All roads seem to lead to Cheltenham in March. A horse can win a race in
October and the first thing the pundits talk about is which race he’ll be
going for at the Festival in the spring….
I’m not getting political. It is what it is. I’m just making the point that the
4-day Cheltenham Festival is pretty much the focal point of the jumps
game.
Everybody wants a horse to be good enough to head there. Everybody
wants their horses to run well there. Everybody dreams of having a
winner there.
And that’s as true with handicap horses as it is with championship horses.
• More competitive than the championship races?
You could make the case that the handicap races are more competitive
than the championship races.
You never see a long odds-on favourite for a handicap race. You never
see a horse in a handicap so far ahead of his rivals in the formbook that
he’s priced up like they’ve got no chance….
In all the handicaps, a big field always goes to post. And all the horses in
that field are of a similar standard.
It’s very competitive. All of them are trying. Some will have been plotted-
up – held onto all season for the Festival assignment. Nothing is being
saved for another day.
The pace in Festival handicaps is always red-hot – from tapes to post. No
horse wins without being good enough and tough enough to repel
multiple challenges. As one opponent fades, another inevitably takes its
place and asks another question.
Handicaps are tough races to win. A horse can run the race of its life in a
Festival handicap – and still not win. A punter can place a cracking bet at
a big price and still not be rewarded with a pay-out….
But it is the live contenders at big prices that make the handicap races
must-play events for me. They are difficult puzzles to solve, but they
cannot be swerved….
• Handicap hurdle targets at the Festival….
I don’t get involved in novice or juvenile handicap hurdle events. I prefer
the open-events where I know a little more about the individual runners, their quirks, preferences and peculiarities….
• On day 2, we have the Coral Cup over 21-furlongs.
• On day 3, we have the Pertemps Final for the stayers over 24-furlongs….
• On day 4, we have the County Hurdle over 16-furlongs and the
Martin Pipe over 20-furlongs for the amateur riders….
None of these races is an easy puzzle to solve for punters. Quite the
opposite. There are no guaranteed winners. There are no guaranteed
placers. It is a case of spot the undervalued horse, take the price and
then hope the horse justifies your faith on the day….
And the job is complicated further by the fact that you can’t be certain
what is running until 48-hours before the off….
It doesn’t leave much time to scrutinise the form of 20-odd-runners. But
at least this year (following changes made in 2018) we get two-day final
declarations instead of the 24-hours we’ve had in previous years. Even
the most devoted formbook aficionado struggled to do a proper form-
reading job of all the runners and riders in that limited time-frame….
Ahead of time, the historic record does at least offer pointers that might
come in useful when splitting fields and reducing the number of runners
of interest….
I’ve been studying the last 12 renewals of the Coral Cup, the Pertemps
Final and the County Hurdle – plus the 10 renewals to date of the Martin
Pipe….
• On the official rating scale….
The situation in the handicap hurdle races at the Festival mirrors what we
saw when we analysed the handicap chase events in the previous section….
The received wisdom is that you need something like a stone in hand on
the handicapper to win a handicap event at the Festival….
That would mean horses officially rated 150+ would have to be 160+ in
reality – and that’s rarely the case. Hence the poor record of 150+ rated horses in handicap chase events at the Festival. And hence the similar
poor record of handicap hurdle horses rated 150+.
Of the 46-handicap hurdle races we’re looking at, just two were won by
horses rated 150+. Just 7 were won by a horse rated 146 or higher.
37 of our 46 races were won by horses officially rated 130 to 144. That
band – encompassing a stone in the weights – appears to be the most
fertile soil in which to look for handicap hurdle horses this time round.
Those horses are rated high-enough to get a run – but low enough to
have something in hand. That’s where I’d be looking.
• Additional field-splitting pointers….
The statistical record suggests you can discount older horses without too
many concerns. They win handicap hurdle events occasionally – no stat is
completely fool-proof – but it is the exception rather than the rule. 42 of
the last 46 handicap hurdle winners were aged between 5- and 8-years-
old….
Avoid too much experience. Also, steer clear of horses with too little
experience – 39 of the last 46 handicap hurdle winners had raced at least
3 times over timber but no more than 14 times….
40 of our 46 winners had been off-the-track and rested for at least 20
days. A longer break is no bar to winning. 26 of our winners – more than
50% – had been off the track for 5-weeks and longer.
Willie Mullins is the man with the best record of winning Festival handicap
hurdle events with horses off a 5-week+ break – he’d saddled 6 such
winners at the meeting over the last 12-years.
Headgear is something a trainer can reach for to improve a horse – to
squeeze a bit more out. But be aware he can also be reaching for it in
desperation....
First-time headgear hasn’t been a great guide to winners in handicap
hurdle events since 2007. Just one such race was won by a horse wearing
something for the first-time….
Claimers have a better record in Festival handicaps run over hurdles than
they do in the handicaps run over fences. Eleven of our 46 winners had
an apprentice up.
Seven of those winners were saddled by just 3 trainers – Nicky
Henderson, David Pipe and Willie Mullins. If they put a claimer on one this
time round, it is worth a look.
Henderson and Pipe put plenty up and sorting the wheat from the chaff is
the challenge. Mullins has the best record – 3 winners from just 11 goes
with another 3 placing – making any claimer he puts up this time round
very interesting indeed.
• Yards with form….
Three yards have dominated the handicap hurdle events over the last
decade….
Willie Mullins has produced 8 winners and 16 placers from 75 runners.
That’s a cracking effort in a series of races with fields of 20+ runners
going to post.
Paul Nicholls has produced 5 winners and 13 placers from 67 runners….
Nicky Henderson has produced 4 winners and 13 placers from 100
runners….
Gordon Elliott cannot be ignored either. He’s a relative new kid on the
block compared to these gnarled veterans. As such he’s had fewer
representatives in these races over the last 12-years – just 45.
But he’s already bagged 5 winners and 14 places – a performance
suggesting he too can be a dominant force in these races going
forward....
He certainly deserves to be included in your shortlist of trainers whose
runners are worthy of close inspection….
A potent Festival field-splitter….
At the Cheltenham Festival in March we’ll be targeting some of the big handicap events.
Of course, it won’t be easy….
Huge fields of closely-matched horses go to post. Everything will be trying
its heart out. Nothing is being save for another day....
Quite a few runners will be plotted-up – well-ahead of the handicapper. A
red-hot pace will be on from tapes to post. Plenty of luck in running is sure to be required....
Even if a horse copes with all that, and is on the premises at the last
obstacle, there are still no guarantees. One or two opponents might still prove too good up the hill....
• Red hot competition….
A horse can run the race of its life in a Festival handicap and still not
make the frame. A punter can strike a great bet at a value price and still not get a return….
But that’s the game. You’ve got to risk defeat to stand a chance of winning a decent pot. At Against the Crowd we are never frightened of
defeat.
A big handicap win can make the Festival. Placers at prices keep the meter ticking over. There is no way I won’t be targeting the handicaps….
But good prep work is essential. And right now, I want to argue the case
for making one specific variable – previous Festival form – the primary field-splitter for handicaps run at the meeting….
• A potent variable to get onside…. Of course, not every Festival handicap event is won by a horse with previous Festival form....
So, if my argument were a bucket, it would have holes in the bottom....
But I don’t set out to find winners. It’s almost impossible to clear-call the winner of a Festival handicap….
My goal is simply to identify competitive horses trading at prices that
under-estimate them....
I’m looking for value. I’m looking for a big run at a big price. I’m looking
for the right horse at the wrong price….
I don’t agonize about whether a horse will win. That will turn out as it is written. My focus is on finding live contenders at big prices. The winners
will take care of themselves over time....
In the search for those specific horses, a meritorious performance at a previous Festival is a potent variable to get onside....
For a start, a horse that has already acted effectively on the Cheltenham
track – coping with the undulations and the stiff uphill finish – is a good bet to go well at the venue again. That much is obvious....
But the Festival presents a very specific set of conditions and circumstances. It is experience of, and proven suitability to, those
conditions and circumstances that make previous Festival form so significant….
• The Festival is not run on winter ground….
The ground at Cheltenham in March is generally very different to winter
ground. The weather has generally started to improve. The ground has started to dry....
Horses unsuited to winter ground, and unable to show their best form on
it, can improve for a surface with more bounce. They can leave previous seasonal form behind....
And because they haven’t been showing their best form during the winter, those horses may have dropped off the market radar. They may also have
slipped down the weights....
Despite conditions having turned in their favour, they will now be racing off more advantageous terms – and they can often be supported at very
attractive prices....
And if they have already shown previously – with a strong Festival performance – that spring ground at Cheltenham suits, that’s all the
better….
The logic works in reverse too. Horses winning and going up the weights on winter ground will find it hard to reproduce that form on spring ground
– especially with more weight on their backs because of those wins….
• Festival pace is unique….
Pace is also an issue. Festival races unfold like few others. They are a very different proposition to the smaller-field, bad-ground races we see
throughout the winter....
At the Festival, better ground, big-fields and the overall level of
competition all conspire to produce events run at a red-hot pace – from start to finish....
It’s a pace that doesn’t suit every horse. Participants fancied because of
performances produced on winter ground, in races run at pedestrian pace, can find themselves taken off their feet....
No horse gets an easy time of it in a Festival race either – particularly in
the handicaps....
There are no easy leads. Challenges come thick and fast. If one challenger is repelled, there are plenty of others waiting to replace it. It’s
a case of red-hot pace, severe pressure and intense competition from
tapes to post....
Horses that have demonstrated a liking for the unique Festival pace are of interest under the same circumstances – regardless of how they’ve been
performing earlier in the season....
• The occasion either suits or it doesn’t….
The nature of the Festival occasion must also be considered….
The meeting is like no other. The crowds, the noise, the atmosphere, the hullabaloo all present a unique and distinct challenge....
Some horses can’t cope and won’t perform at their best….
Other horses feed off the excitement. They come alive in the Festival cauldron. The meeting – and all its attendant peculiarities – draws the
best from them....
Horses with solid Festival form not only have the benefit of experience but are prime candidates to excel in that peculiar environment again….
The track, the spring ground, the red-hot pace and the nature of the
occasion all combine to produce a unique racing challenge....
It makes sense to shortlist handicappers that have already excelled in that specific environment. It’s a strategy that will lead to competitive bets
at big prices....
Previous Festival form will be a significant consideration when I come to
analyse the Festival handicap fields in March....
Make competitivity your friend at the
Festival….
One thing I always try to do is to look at information or a dataset from a
perspective that probably differs from the one the market (or the largest
share of it) is using....
Nothing too clever or onerous – just a tweak on the dial that produces a
slightly different set of observations and insights....
The exercise can prove useful and productive in betting terms – providing
pointers and avenues of exploration that are not immediately visible to
the punters you are betting against....
• Wins and places don’t quite cover it all....
I’ve made the following point repeatedly in the past....
A horse can run the race of its life in a handicap at the Cheltenham
Festival and still not win or even place....
Yet winning and placing are the basis on which most stats you’ll read about are produced....
I do it myself – using wins and places as the basis for many observations
and insights I make....
But at the Festival, and especially with the handicaps, it is worthwhile
tweaking the dial and focusing on competitivity rather than just wins and places....
At the Festival, failing to win or place is not the same thing as producing a
bad run or an under-par performance....
At the Festival, a ‘competitive’ run can represent a hell of a performance – and it is worthwhile knowing which yards produce most of them and
with what frequency....
• Getting competitive....
By ‘competitive run’ I mean horses that finished within 0.5 lengths per furlong of the winner....
So, in a 2-mile handicap race I’m looking for horses that finished within 8-
lengths (16-furlongs x 0.5) of the winner....
In a 3-mile handicap race I’m looking for horses that finished within 12-lengths (24-furlongs x 0.5) of the winner....
This is just my own rule of thumb. There’s nothing scientific going on
here....
This is not some kind of official measurement or standard practice. It’s just how I choose to do it.
You could find your own way. You could produce a variation on the general theme. My rule is not a hard and fast rule. It is just my rule. No
more. No less.
For the purposes of my own analysis, a horse that has run a competitive race in a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival is one that got to within 0.5
lengths per furlong of the winner – regardless of the actual placing.
• Over the last 6-years....
Over the weekend, I subjected the handicaps (all of them – whatever the
nature of the individual race) run at the Cheltenham Festival over the last 6-years (chases and hurdles taken together) to my competitivity test...
In the first instance, the test serves only to confirm something that we
already know – that certain yards (the familiar ones with the best horses and the most resources) perform best and produce the lion’s share of
competitive runners in Festival handicaps....
But what is interesting is to compare the performances of those individual yards....
The table below highlights the performance of those individual yards over
the test-period. It shows wins, other competitive runs (in or outside the frame), total number of competitive runs, total runners and competitivity
expressed as a strike-rate percentage....
Yard W OC TCR TR C%
Gordon Elliott 8 18 26 62 41.9
Nicky Henderson 3 31 34 104 32.7
Paul Nicholls 8 22 30 94 31.9
Alan King 1 13 14 44 31.8
W P Mullins 5 21 26 86 30.2
Philip Hobbs 2 15 17 64 26.6
David Pipe 4 12 16 68 23.5
Nigel Twiston-Davies 1 7 8 41 19.5
Jonjo O'Neill 2 9 11 65 16.9
• The man for the occasion....
The data in the table is clear. If you’re going to nail your colours to the mast of one man in this season’s Festival handicaps, Gordon Elliott is
your best bet....
He’s the man who has been most reliable and consistent in sending out handicappers sufficiently well-weighted, sufficiently capable and
sufficiently primed to produce big performances in some of the most competitive and hotly-contested races you are ever going to see....
That takes skill, know-how and to-the-moment planning and preparation.
To do it so consistently discounts any notions of luck or fluke....
There is a method at work here. One that produces consistently high
results. And there’s no reason to believe Elliott won’t be following and applying the same method this time round....
He’s produced as many Festival handicap winners over the last 6-years as
Paul Nicholls. And the same volume of competitive runners as Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins – and from fewer qualifying runners
too….
Elliott has had fewer opportunities to get the numbers on the board. But those handicappers he has pitched into the Festival events have produced
competitive efforts at a greater frequency than those horses saddled by his principal rivals – many at tasty prices....
Elliott’s has had the most potent and well-prepared ammunition in the handicaps at the Festival over the last 6-years – and we can expect him
to be building on that record this time around....
Of course, the stats only tell us what happened before. They are not a certain guide as to what will happen in the future....
But Elliott’s record of competitivity is something worth being aware of. At
the very least it alerts us to the fact that any handicapper he sends out at the Festival is worthy of closer and deeper scrutiny – especially when it
can be backed at a price.
Elliot’s record suggests he’ll have one or two surprises up his sleeve come March....
Beyond the top table….
In this section we continue to explore the subject of competitivity in the
Festival handicaps....
Our immediate objective is to identify yards with the useful knack of
consistently producing horses that perform competitively in these races –
which are among the most fiercely competitive you’re likely to see....
Gordon Elliott came out top of the tree in terms of the top trainers on the
block....
42% of his handicap runners over the last six Festivals produced runs that
were competitive – based on my personal measure....
But it’s not all about the top trainers. Our competitivity stats serve to
reveal smaller, less-established and less high-profile yards with a track
record of frequently producing competitive runners in the Festival
handicaps....
• Dan’s the man – or one of them.... Take Dan Skelton – one-time pupil assistant to Paul Nicholls....
Yard W OC TCR TR C%
Dan Skelton 2 9 11 30 36.7
He’s hardly low-profile – sitting 3rd in the Trainers Championship and
having already plundered 35 Graded and Listed winners and a fair few
decent handicaps in his training career to date....
But Skelton is still in the process of piecing together his Festival pedigree.
He’s still a new kid on the block in Festival terms...
He didn’t have a runner at the meeting until 2015. And heading into the
Festival, he’s only saddled 30 handicappers at the Festival to date....
It is early days to be drawing too many firm conclusions. But the omens
are good. Those 20 Festival handicappers to date produced two winners –
Superb Story in the 2016 edition of the County Hurdle and Mohaayed in
the 2018 edition of the same race – and an additional 9 performances
that qualify as competitive on my criterion....
Long House Hall gave a fine account of himself in the 2016 Coral Cup.
Two Taffs performed with distinction in the 2017 Close Brother Novices’
Handicap Chase. Savello ran a cracker for the yard in the 2016 Grand
Annual.
And Zarib, Kasakh Noir, Born Survivor, Mohaayed (this time in the
2017 edition of the County), Nube Negra and Spiritofthegames all
produced noteworthy efforts that qualify as ‘competitive’ on my
measure....
The bottom line is that Skelton is operating at a competitivity rate of
36.7% in Festival handicaps. His track record to date suggests he can get
handicappers to the meeting with enough fuel in the tank to run beyond
their current mark – and he can get them to do the business-end or
close-to on the day....
All that makes him a man worth noting for March 2019....
• Missing a trick....
Having trained winners of the Gold Cup, the Champion Chase and the Champion Hurdle, nobody can question the credentials of Jessica
Harrington – at the Festival or anywhere else. She’s done things many trainers will only ever dream about....
Despite all that success, she probably wouldn’t make the shortlist of many
punters if you asked them to scribble down a trio of trainers worth following at the Festival in the handicap events....
But perhaps those punters are missing a trick. Our competitivity stats suggest that Harrington’s is a name that should be very much on your
radar....
Yard W OC TCR TR C%
Mrs John Harrington 2 4 6 14 42.9
The County Kildare handler has been frugal with her Festival handicap
entries in recent times – just 14 going to post across the last six Festivals
– but she’s had ‘live’ ammunition on half a dozen of those occasions.
That’s a rate of competitive performance that suggests it would be
dangerous to overlook anything she sends over for a handicap this time
around.
Supasundae and Rock The World respectively landed the Coral Cup
and the Grand Annual in 2017....
In previous years across the last five Jetson (twice), Bostons Angel and
Rock The World (again) had each produced an honourable performance
in defeat.
Harrington has the record of a trainer who does a lot with a little. She
doesn’t waste bullets. As often as not, horses travelling from her yard to
contest a Festival handicap are coming with the trigger cocked. Overlook
or summarily dismiss her horses at your peril....
• Honourable mentions....
Ian Williams hasn’t been the most fertile source of Cheltenham runners over the last 6-years – but his competitivity stats suggest his entries are
worth a looksee nevertheless....
Yard W OC TCR TR C%
Ian Williams 1 3 4 8 50.0
Alan Fleming is another such handler – one who operates under the
general radar but one capable of producing for a handicap at a big
meeting....
Yard W OC TCR TR C%
Alan Fleming 1 3 4 9 44.4
And, finally, Patrick G Kelly should not be dismissed lightly. His four
handicap runners at the last six Festivals produced 2 wins and 2
additional competitive performances. That means everything he’s sent
over for a recent Festival handicap ran competitively....
Yard W OC TCR TR C%
Patrick G Kelly 2 2 4 4 100.0
We’re dealing with a small sample for sure – but given the nature of
Festival handicaps and the sheer level of competition within those races,
I’d suggest the Kelly record is down to something more than chance,
anomaly or good luck. The man can obviously tune one to the moment.
His entries are worth monitoring….
In the plate….
Earlier in this series of articles relating to the Festival handicaps, the stats
indicated that Gordon Elliott would be a fair shout as the best trainer to
follow in those races at the 2019 Festival....
With his handicappers producing competitive runs 42% of the time in
Festival races across the last 6-years, Elliott’s horses produce big runs
with more frequency than any other trainer on the block....
But what about jockeys?
Nobody else can influence a horse or provide it with any kind of
competitive advantage once the race has started. The jockey is a key
player. What he does or doesn’t do has a big part to play in the
performance a horse produces....
So, which of the weighing room inhabitants have the best record of
getting their horses to run competitively in the Festival handicaps?
• The record of achievement....
The table below highlights the performance of individual jockeys over the test-period – the last six Cheltenham Festivals....
It shows wins, other competitive runs (in or outside the frame), total
number of competitive runs, total runners and competitivity (expressed as a strike-rate percentage) of the jockeys with the best numbers in the
book....
Jockey W OC TCR TR C%
Davy Russell 7 6 13 24 54.2
Tom Scudamore 4 11 15 39 38.5
Robbie Power 2 3 5 14 35.7
Sam Twiston-Davies 3 13 16 45 35.6
Bryan Cooper 3 5 8 27 29.6
Ruby Walsh 0 6 6 22 27.3
Brian Hughes 3 3 6 26 23.1
Paul Townend 3 2 5 22 22.7
Richard Johnson 3 7 10 45 22.2
Barry Geraghty 2 4 6 32 18.8
The bare figures are categorical and unequivocal....
Davy Russell, Tom Scudamore, Robbie Power and Sam Twiston-Davies
are the top four guys when it comes to their respective recent riding
records in the Festival handicaps....
And, if you want my opinion, it is Davy Russell whose mounts in the
Festival handicaps this year absolutely must be give the once-over....
• The man to follow....
Robbie Power’s record is excellent – but it has been achieved wholly on the back of horses saddled by Jessica Harrington. Fair enough. And any
handicappers they combine on next month should be on your radar....
Sam Twiston-Davies has a solid record – but having left the Paul Nicholls yard for pastures new, I’m not sure he will get the quality rides in quite
the same volume as he was doing when he was the number one at Ditcheat....
Tom Scudamore’s record is one built on the association with David Pipe.
You can’t argue with it, it’s solid enough....
But the Davy Russell record contains much more variety....
He’s ridden handicap winners for Gordon Elliott, Tony Martin and Patrick
Kelly....
And he’s ridden competitive races on horses saddled by Arthur Moore, Dan Skelton and Dessie Hughes and even Kerry Lee....
Either Davy Russell is an advantage to a horse and a man with the knack
of rendering a large proportion of his Festival handicap mounts competitive....
Or Davy Russell is a respected go-to man for trainers – a man who can
get the right tune out of a horse primed and weighted for a big handicap run at the Festival....
I suspect his record owes a fair bit to both schools of thought. He’s good and, because he’s good, he gets more than his fair share of rides on ‘live’
ones....
Whatever, all we need to know for sure is this: the Irish champion jockey is a potent booking on a Festival handicapper – with a solid track-record
of getting the job done or going as close as can be reasonably expected in such competitive races whether it be over hurdles or fences...
• The market – not fully onto it....
Perhaps the most interesting thing about Davy Russell and his Festival
handicap mounts is that the market isn’t entirely onto the man’s potency....
Five of the horses he’s ridden to victory in Festival handicaps over the last
six years were sent off at SPs of 11s, 12s, 14s, 16s and 16s....
It is a racing certainty that each of those horses would have been available to back at bigger prices the day before racing or on the morning
of the race itself....
The two winners that were sent off at single figure prices were the two winners he rode in handicaps at the 2018 meeting. The market has
latched on....
But it soon forgets too. And when a big fancy comes a long, a Russell-mount could still go out long in the betting. And, in the instance, it is well
worth your close consideration....
Of course, I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating – the stats tell us only
what has happened in the past and they do not represent an infallible guide as to what will unfold in the future....
But they offer information. They reveal the record of achievement. They
give us something to work with – something of which the wider market may not be fully aware or which the wider market might overlook or
forget....
The stats we are looking at today tell us that Davy Russell is a man to be reckoned with in the Festival handicaps.
Whether he improves horses or whether he gets rides on ‘live’ ones
because of his prowess is a distinction that hardly matters....
His handicap rides are of considerable interest at the Festival in March.
His record of recent achievement tells us as much. No more. No less.
Between now and then, I’m going to be keeping a close eye on any speculation about the handicap rides Russell might be in line for at
Cheltenham. I won’t be afraid of going in early at big prices....
Key trends point to Championship winners….
The Cheltenham Festival represents the pinnacle of National Hunt racing.
The G1 Championship races that take place at the venue every March are designed to find the best horses in specific divisions of the jump racing
game.
• The Champion Hurdle run on the Tuesday is designed to find the best 2-mile hurdler.
• The Queen Mother Champion Chase is designed to find the best
horse over the bigger obstacles at the minimum distance of 2-miles. The race is run on the Wednesday of the Festival.
• On Thursday Cheltenham Stages the Stayers’ Hurdle designed to
find the best staying hurdler over a trip of 3-miles.
• Thursday also plays host to the Ryanair Chase – a race which has
become a Championship event for chasers specialising in a trip of 2 miles and 5 furlongs.
• On the Friday of the Festival, we have the Gold Cup – the staying
chasers' Championship event run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs.
These races are difficult to read. All the most talented horses in each division – at least those which are fit – tend to show up. All the major
yards are represented. Every single runner is trying. Nothing is being saved for another day.
The championship races are invariably run at a red-hot pace. This, in
combination with the specific demands of the track, means that only horses at the top of their game, horses tuned to the moment and horses
in receipt of luck in running, can prevail on the day.
A horse can run the race of its life in a Championship race at the
Cheltenham Festival – and it can still get beaten.
So how do we solve these betting puzzles?
It's never ‘easy’ to solve these races – but help is at hand in the form of historical evidence.
Over the years, specific types of horses tend to come out on top time and
time again in the Championship races.
The winners tend to share certain characteristics and credentials….
They have similar qualifications….
They have achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks….
Their careers have been constructed around common themes. Their
respective campaigns have similar and consistent features….
They meet the same broad criterion. They tick the same boxes. They measure up similarly to a wider statistical profile….
Conversely, horses that fail to meet the criteria laid down by these long-
standing trends tend to fall short.
It is very fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to a winner – at least not on their own. But they will help you split a field into
the horses that fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least.
And that information can help you reach betting decisions….
No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another.
We can figure out which trends we think are most important against what
else we know. We might discard some trends. With others, we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever reason.
The point I’m making is that trends are instructive and can direct and
focus the way we look at or get into or go about finding angles on specific races.
In this report, you will find comprehensive stats for each of the G1
Championship races set to be run at this season’s Cheltenham Festival –
the races where year-on-year the trends most frequently remain
consistent.
I call these documents Winning Race Profiles – and they are part of the
approach I take to finding value bets in the big races.
These Winning Race Profiles are a useful tool. That’s why I compile them.
That’s why I keep them up to date year on year. That’s why I use them –
alongside my other methods – in my own analysis of the big races. And
that’s why I’m handing them over to you.
They don’t represent a magic winner-finding system. It isn’t a case of A +
B + C + D = winner. But it is good data nevertheless – much of which
you won’t find elsewhere.
Take a good look at the key stats for any of the individual races. Isolate
those that seem strongest or most important to you.
Then measure the horses set to go to post in this season’s renewal
against that statistical checklist. See how they measure up as potential
candidates.
It’s a very instructive process – at the end of which, at the very least, you
will have very clear ideas on the strengths and potential flaws in each of
the horses set to run.
That’s the kind of information and insight that large portions of the
market are completely unaware of.
Considering those are the people you are betting against when the
Festival races get underway, it is clear the information contained in our
Winning Race Profiles delivers a very real knowledge edge.
What next? There is no standard right or wrong way forward. It is a case
of each to his own.
Some of my readers back the top scorer on the Profile. That’s fine.
Others use the Profiles to identify short-priced horses with flaws – so that
they can oppose them either by laying them on the exchanges or backing
one or more of their opponents.
Personally, I use my Winning Race Profiles as a value-finding tool. I am
always most interested in the horses that tick a lot of the right Profile
boxes, but which are being over-looked by the wider market.
I’m a contrarian punter. That’s the way I play. I’ve had good days where
I’ve backed big winners at big prices. And I’ve had plenty of losing days
too.
I expect those losing days. Losing days are an inevitable consequence of
how I play the game. For me it’s a long-term affair. In seeking out value
bets I aim to back enough winners at sufficiently good prices to get ahead
of the game over time….
How you use the information, and how you seek to apply it in the betting
markets, is pretty much up to you. We look at it as our job to load the
gun with bullets. Where you point it and when you fire is your business….
All I hope is that you find the information useful – and if you use it to bag
a winner at this year’s Festival, then so much the better....
The Profile of a Champion Hurdle winner….
The Champion Hurdle is the feature race on the opening day of the Festival – the Championship event for the hurdlers. We can usually rely
on a double-figure field going to post for this – with a big field now and
again.
The Champion Hurdle is a Grade 1 event run over the extended 2-mile
trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course.
The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-02 whilst
the older horses must shoulder 11-10. Fillies and mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 21 winners of the Champion Hurdle, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days
since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the
race, staring price, market position and trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR HR Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
2018 Buveur D'Air G FR 7 169 10 38 171 160 4/6 F Nicky Henderson
2017 Buveur D'Air G FR 6 157 5 38 159 143 5/1 2 Nicky Henderson
2016 Annie Power M IRE 8 162 12 27 164 139 5/2 F W P Mullins
2015 Faugheen G IRE 7 169 7 74 169 141 4/5 F W P Mullins
2014 Jezki G IRE 6 165 10 44 167 151 9/1 Mrs John Harrington
2013 Hurricane Fly G IRE 9 172 19 44 173 161 13/8 F W P Mullins
2012 Rock On Ruby G IRE 7 165 6 78 166 160 11/1 Paul Nicholls
2011 Hurricane Fly G IRE 7 167 11 51 169 153 11/4 F W P Mullins
2010 Binocular G FR 6 163 10 38 172 158 9/1 Nicky Henderson
2009 Punjabi G GB 6 163 12 24 164 160 22/1 Nicky Henderson
2008 Katchit G IRE 5 159 12 24 162 157 10/1 Alan King
2007 Sublimity G FR 7 0 5 45 148 139 16/1 John G Carr
2006 Brave Inca G IRE 8 0 20 44 170 151 7/4 F C A Murphy
2005 Hardy Eustace G IRE 8 0 16 31 170 155 7/2 J D T Hughes
2004 Hardy Eustace G IRE 7 0 10 31 156 123 33/1 D T Hughes
2003 Rooster Booster G GB 9 167 25 38 170 154 9/2 2 Philip Hobbs
2002 Hors La Loi III G FR 7 153 16 19 166 152 10/1 James Fanshawe
2000 Istabraq G IRE 8 0 23 51 181 174 8/15 F A P O'Brien
1999 Istabraq G IRE 7 0 16 51 176 171 4/9 F A P O'Brien
1998 Istabraq G IRE 6 0 10 51 162 160 3/1 F A P O'Brien
1997 Make A Stand G GB 6 0 11 30 157 157 7/1 M C Pipe
Yards with form – Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times in total.
His last 33 participants have generated 4 wins and 9 additional placed finishes. Willie Mullins has been a star-man too. His last 24 runners
have produced 4 winners and 5 placed finishers. The big yards have the
best horses.
In the plate – The top jockeys have enjoyed most success in this event
in recent times. Barry Geraghty has partnered three winners and 4 placed horses from 14 rides. Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 winners and 4
placed horses from 17 rides. Noel Fehily has ridden 2 winners and a placer from his last 6 rides in the race. For sure, the top jockeys get the
best rides – but they get them for a reason.
Market pointers – Where the championship races are concerned, this is the race where I’m happiest to look for a horse down the prices. Nine of
the winners over the last 21 years came from out of the top 3 in
the market – 6 won at double-figure SPs.
I’ve studied the last 21 renewals of the Champion Hurdle and I’ve
identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I
discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent
renewals)
• All the last 21 winners had raced at least 5 times over hurdles (17
had raced at least 10 times) • 20 had appeared on the track since Christmas
• 20 had already run over hurdles at Cheltenham (18 registering a top 3 finish)
• 19 had scored a Racing Post rating of 156+ at 16f or 17f • 19 had a winning strike rate of 33%+ over hurdles
• 19 had a strike rate of 40%+ over hurdles at 16f or 17f
• 19 had raced no more than 20 times over hurdles • 18 had produced a top-4 finish at the previous season’s Festival
(Annie Power would have had she stood-up at the last obstacle in the 2015 Mares Hurdle)
• 18 were aged 6- to 8-years-old • 18 had scored a career-best RPR over hurdles of 159+
• 17 had appeared in a G1 hurdle race that season • 17 had raced over hurdles at 18f+ (15 registering a win)
• 17 had won last time out • 17 had not been outside the first 3 in any completed hurdle race
that term • 17 had won a hurdle race in a field of 15+ runners
• 16 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 hurdle races • 16 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating over hurdles of 150+
• 16 had won either a G1 or a G2 hurdle race that season
• 15 had run 3 or 4 times over hurdles that season • 14 had scored 154+ at a trip beyond 17f
• 13 of the last 15 winners had a won a G1 over hurdles at 16f or 17f • 11 of the last 15 winners had hit the top 3 in a hurdle race worth
£40k+ that season • 11 of the last 15 winners had won a hurdle race worth £52k+
Horses that best-measure up to the blueprint can be considered strong
contenders in this season’s renewal. And if you can find a contender at a
juicy price then that’s all the better….
The Profile of a Champion Chase winner….
The Champion Chase is the feature race of Day 2 at the Cheltenham
Festival and is the pinnacle event in racing for chasers over the minimum
distance.
The list of recent winners reads like a Who’s Who of 21st Century chasers
and this race has very rarely produced a freak result. The only downside is that the race rarely attracts a big field. But the race is never less than
exciting with quality chasers taking their fences at real speed.
This is a Grade 1 event for chasers over 2 miles and 12 fences on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older.
Weights are set at 11-10. Mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 21 winners of the Champion Chase,
their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of chase runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race,
staring price, market position and trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R
Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
2018 Altior G IRE 8 170 7 32 177 154 Evs 1 Nicky Henderson
2017 Special Tiara G GB 10 159 22 46 170 156 11/1 Henry De Bromhead
2016 Sprinter Sacre G FR 10 170 16 80 190 165 5/1 2 Nicky Henderson
2015 Dodging Bullets G GB 7 171 9 53 173 159 9/2 3 Paul Nicholls
2014 Sire De Grugy G FR 8 169 11 53 174 158 11/4 F Gary Moore
2013 Sprinter Sacre G FR 7 179 7 46 178 165 1/4 F Nicky Henderson
2012 Finian's Rainbow G IRE 9 164 7 53 167 154 4/1 2 Nicky Henderson
2011 Sizing Europe G IRE 9 160 9 45 166 166 10/1 Henry De Bromhead
2010 Big Zeb G IRE 9 165 13 45 171 159 10/1 C A Murphy
2009 Master Minded G FR 6 186 10 53 186 185 4/11 F Paul Nicholls
2008 Master Minded G FR 5 170 6 33 168 143 3/1 2 Paul Nicholls
2007 Voy Por Ustedes G FR 6 167 9 32 167 160 5/1 3 Alan King
2006 Newmill G IRE 8 0 8 55 155 155 16/1 John Joseph Murphy
2005 Moscow Flyer G IRE 11 0 22 45 181 177 6/4 F Mrs John Harrington
2004 Azertyuiop G FR 7 172 8 32 179 161 15/8 2 Paul Nicholls
2003 Moscow Flyer G IRE 9 0 11 38 168 140 7/4 F Mrs John Harrington
2002 Flagship Uberalles G IRE 8 169 18 95 173 177 7/4 F Philip Hobbs
2000 Edredon Bleu G FR 8 160 16 39 167 171 7/2 2 Henrietta Knight
1999 Call Equiname G GB 9 150 4 53 157 164 7/2 2 Paul Nicholls
1998 One Man G IRE 10 0 24 35 179 167 7/2 3 Gordon Richards
1997 Martha's Son G GB 10 0 12 21 167 161 9/1 T A Forster
Yards with form – Nicky Henderson has won four of the last 7 renewals. The bottom line is that past form counts for little. You need the
right horse right now. Prior to the current period, Paul Nicholls had ruled the roost – with the likes of Azertyuiop, Master Minded and, more
recently, Dodging Bullets, flying the Ditcheat flag….
Market pointer – The market has been a decent guide in recent times with 16 of the winners since 1997 going off in the front 3 market
positions. Only two of the last 21 winners went off at an SP bigger than
10s.
I’ve studied the last 21 renewals of the Queen Mother Champion Chase
and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s
what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent
renewals)
• 20 of the last 21 winners had already won at least 4 times over
fences • 20 had raced at least 6 times over fences
• 19 had scored a best chasing RPR of 166+ • 19 had scored a best of 154+ on the Topspeed scale
• 19 had won a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase that term • 19 had already won or finished 2nd in an Open Grade 1 chase (12
had won one of last two such races contested) • 19 had raced at 16f or 17f over fences last time out
• 18 were operating at a strike rate of 50%+ at 16f to 17f over fences
• 18 had scored 163+ last time out over fences • 18 had been off the track between 32 and 55 days
• 18 had scored career-best chasing RPR over fences at 16f or 17f
• 18 had already raced over fences at the track (14 producing a win) • 17 had an overall strike rate of 50%+ over fences
• 17 had appeared at a previous Festival (12 securing a top 3 finish) • 16 had contested a Grade 1 chase that term
• 16 were no older than 9-years-old (incl. 12 of last 15 winners) • 16 had won last chase completed
• 16 had won at trips of 18f+ (just 2 had gone beyond 21f) • 14 of the last 15 winners appeared in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase
last time out • 13 of the last 15 winners had won a chase worth £50k+ to winning
connections • 12 of the last 15 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
• 12 of the last 15 winners had raced no more than 15 times over fences
Another very strong set of Winning Profile stats there which will enable
you to pinpoint the best-qualified contenders and swerve the horses that
will be running for pride and down-the-order money….
The Profile of a Stayers’ Hurdle winner….
The World Hurdle is the Championship event for the staying hurdlers. Working with the stats for this race is slightly confused by the fact that 3
horses – Big Buck’s, Inglis Drever and Baracouda – won 9 of the last 21 renewals between them. With that in mind I have focused most
attention on figures extracted from the 14 renewals since 1997 to feature
a first-time winner.
This is Grade 1 event contested over 3 miles and 12 hurdles on
Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-01. The older horses carry 11-10. Mares get the 7lb
allowance.
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 21 winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days
since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the
race, staring price, market position and trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Hdl R
Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
2018 Penhill G GB 7 153 9 323 160 138 12/1 W P Mullins
2017 Nichols Canyon G GB 7 161 15 46 166 156 10/1 W P Mullins
2016 Thistlecrack G GB 8 168 9 47 172 133 Evs F Colin Tizzard
2015 Cole Harden G IRE 6 158 10 47 158 135 14/1 Warren Greatrex
2014 More Of That G IRE 6 160 4 89 161 118 15/2 3 Jonjo O'Neill
2013 Solwhit G FR 9 154 20 54 165 167 17/2 C Byrnes
2012 Big Buck's G FR 9 174 19 47 178 154 5/6 F Paul Nicholls
2011 Big Buck's G FR 8 174 14 78 176 147 10/11 F Paul Nicholls
2010 Big Buck's G FR 7 174 10 79 176 145 5/6 F Paul Nicholls
2009 Big Buck's G FR 6 170 6 47 166 96 6/1 3 Paul Nicholls
2008 Inglis Drever G GB 9 172 20 47 170 162 11/8 F Howard Johnson
2007 Inglis Drever G GB 8 163 16 47 167 162 5/1 3 Howard Johnson
2006 My Way De Solzen G FR 6 157 10 25 159 122 8/1 Alan King
2005 Inglis Drever G GB 6 157 9 26 165 162 5/1 3 Howard Johnson
2004 Iris's Gift G GB 7 168 8 33 173 160 9/2 2 Jonjo O'Neill
2003 Baracouda G FR 8 0 17 83 176 147 9/4 J F Doumen
2002 Baracouda G FR 7 0 14 20 176 147 13/8 F F Doumen
2000 Bacchanal G IRE 6 163 6 47 165 147 11/2 3 Nicky Henderson
1999 Anzum G GB 8 148 16 20 157 151 40/1 David Nicholson
1998 Princeful G IRE 7 0 9 42 147 140 16/1 Jenny Pitman
1997 Karshi G GB 7 0 8 36 146 143 20/1 Henrietta Knight
Yards with form – Trainers that have handled any one of the multiple
winners clearly stand out on the stats. Of the rest, Alan King’s runners are worth a look. He’s saddled just one winner but 4 of his other 14
runners hit the frame….
Market pointers – Thirteen of the last 21 winners could be found in the
top 3 of the market.
I’ve studied each of the last 21 renewals, but I’ve focused my attention
most closely on the 14 renewals since 1997 featuring first-time winners of the race. I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will
help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field.
Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent
renewals)
• All the last 15 first-time winners had won at least twice over hurdles
• 14 had raced no more than 25 times under rules in total (on flat, in bumpers, over hurdles or over fences)
• 14 had appeared over hurdles at Cheltenham (10 producing a top 2 finish)
• 14 had won a race against at least 10 opponents
• 13 were operating over hurdles at a winning strike rate in excess 37.5%+
• 13 had scored a career-best hurdling RPR of 157+ (8 had scored 165+)
• 13 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 3 races • 12 of the last 15 first-time winners were aged 6 or 7
• 12 had run between 2 and 4 times over hurdles that term • 12 had raced in last 7 weeks
• 12 of the last 15 first time winners had scored at least 133 over hurdles on the Topspeed scale
• 12 had appeared at a previous Festival (9 producing at least one top 6 finish)
• 12 had scored an RPR of 150+ last time out (9 had scored 156+) • 12 had raced between 6 and 15 times over hurdles
• 12 of the last 13 first-time winners contested a Grade race last time
out • 11 had won a Grade race that season
• 11 had already finished 1st or 2nd in an Open Grade 1 race • 10 of the last 12 first-time winners had not been outside the first 2
in a hurdle race that term • 6 had not run over hurdles at 24f+ (4 of those had scored 157+ at
longest trip encountered) • 8 of the last 11 first-time winners had won a hurdle race worth
£37k+ to winning connections • 7 of the 9 that had run over hurdles at 24f+ had produced a win
(and each of them had scored an RPR of 157+ at that kind of trip)
Those stats will guide you to the horses best-qualified and best-equipped
to prove competitive in this season’s premier event for staying hurdlers….
The Profile of a Ryanair Chase winner….
Since its introduction to the Festival programme in 2005 the Ryanair Chase has developed into something of a championship event for the
middle-distance chasers and – for my money at least – represents one of
the best races held at the meeting….
The race attracts decent fields of high-quality runners and has produced
some exciting finishes over the last few years.
This is a Grade 1 race run over the 21-furlong trip and 17 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older.
Weights are set at 11-10 with mares getting the standard 7lb allowance.
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 14 winners of the Ryanair Chase, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of chase runs, days since last
run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race,
staring price, market position and trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R
Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
2018 Balko Des Flos G FR 7 166 10 77 168 139 8/1 Henry De Bromhead
2017 Un De Sceaux G FR 9 171 11 47 174 155 7/4 F W P Mullins
2016 Vautour G FR 7 176 6 82 180 150 Evs F W P Mullins
2015 Uxizandre G FR 7 161 9 33 166 130 16/1 Alan King
2014 Dynaste G FR 8 169 7 77 175 127 3/1 F David Pipe
2013 Cue Card G GB 7 165 8 26 170 156 7/2 2 Colin Tizzard
2012 Riverside Theatre G GB 8 168 8 26 172 160 7/2 F Nicky Henderson
2011 Albertas Run G IRE 10 166 22 61 171 152 6/1 2 Jonjo O'Neill
2010 Albertas Run G IRE 9 162 17 26 171 148 14/1 Jonjo O'Neill
2009 Imperial Commander G IRE 8 156 5 76 160 160 6/1 2 Nigel Twiston-Davies
2008 Our Vic G IRE 10 165 17 47 173 166 4/1 2 David Pipe
2007 Taranis G FR 6 152 7 40 158 151 9/2 3 Paul Nicholls
2006 Fondmort G FR 10 157 27 26 165 160 100/30 J Nicky Henderson
2005 Thisthatandtother G IRE 9 155 11 47 164 159 9/2 2 Paul Nicholls
Yards with form – Jonjo O’Neill has won this twice and placed once but all because of one horse – Albertas Run. Willie Mullins is also a two-
time winner. Where strong performances from multiple horses are
concerned it’s a case of the same old story. Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are the men with the best records. Henderson has had 2
winners and three places from 17 runners. Nicholls has produced 2 winners and 2 places from his 17 representatives. David Pipe has
produced in this race too – 6 runners producing two wins and a place. Alan King’s last 8 participants have produced a win and two place
finishes.
Market pointers – Consensus horses have been to the fore in the short history of this race. Twelve of the 14 winners to date were sent off in the
front 3 of the market.
I’ve studied the 14 renewals of the Ryanair Chase to date and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the
live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I
discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent
renewals)
• All the previous 14 winners had run in a chase at Cheltenham (12
finishing in top 2 and 9 hitting that level multiple times) • All 14 had been off the track at least 26 days
• 13 had appeared at a previous Festival (11 registering at least one
top 5 finish) • 13 had run in 2 to 4 chases that term
• 13 were officially rated 155+ (10 of the last 11 were rated 161+) • 13 had scored a career-best RPR over fences of 160+
• 13 had appeared in a G1 or G2 chase last time out • 12 had won at least 4 times over fences
• 12 had raced at least 7 times over fences • 12 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 races over fences
• 12 had finished in the first 3 in a Graded chase that term • 12 had raced no more than 17 times over fences
• 11 had a chase strike-rate of 30%+ • 11 had won at least 2 chases at 19f to 22f
• 11 had finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of last two chases contested
• 11 of the last 12 winners had contested a race worth £75k+ that
term (9 producing a top 3 finish) • 11 of the last 14 winners had already won a chase worth at least
£50k to winning connections • All the last 11 winners had run in a Grade 1 chase that term
• 10 had scored an RPR of 160+ at 20f to 22f over fences • 10 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 150+
• 10 had contested races at 24f+ over fences (8 producing performances worth 164+)
• 10 were aged 7- to 9-years-old • 9 had a strike rate of 33%+ over fences at 19f to 22f
Another strong Winning Profile with a range of significant and informative
stats which will swiftly draw your attention to the runners most likely to
be competitive in this season’s renewal….
The Profile of a Gold Cup winner….
The finale of the Festival (at least as far as we are concerned) is the
feature race of the week – the Gold Cup….
This is the most prestigious of all NH races – the richest on the
programme. The horse that wins is pretty much seen as the Premier
Champion of the sport….
The race tests just about everything a horse can be tested on – speed, jumping, stamina, heart, character and temperament – and represents
the ultimate test in jumps racing….
The race is a Grade 1 event contested over the extended 26f trip and 22 fences on Cheltenham’s New course….
The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. The 5yos carry 11-09. Older
horses carry 11-10. Mares get the standard 7lb allowance….
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 21 winners of the Gold Cup, their sex,
breeding, age, official ratings, number of chase runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring
price, market position and trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R
Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
2018 Native River G IRE 8 166 12 34 174 154 5/1 3 Colin Tizzard
2017 Sizing John G GB 7 167 9 33 170 147 7/1 Mrs John Harrington
2016 Don Cossack G GER 9 175 18 64 181 165 9/4 F Gordon Elliott
2015 Coneygree G GB 8 166 3 34 169 152 7/1 2 Mark Bradstock
2014 Lord Windermere G IRE 8 152 9 33 157 123 20/1 J H Culloty
2013 Bobs Worth G IRE 8 171 5 104 174 164 11/4 F Nicky Henderson
2012 Synchronised G IRE 9 167 8 79 171 151 8/1 3 Jonjo O'Neill
2011 Long Run G FR 6 179 9 62 181 163 7/2 F Nicky Henderson
2010 Imperial Commander G IRE 9 174 9 83 177 173 7/1 3 Nigel Twiston-Davies
2009 Kauto Star G FR 9 177 20 77 184 176 7/4 F Paul Nicholls
2008 Denman G IRE 8 176 8 34 183 157 9/4 2 Paul Nicholls
2007 Kauto Star G FR 7 176 10 34 184 169 5/4 F Paul Nicholls
2006 War Of Attrition G IRE 7 0 9 79 167 139 15/2 3 M F Morris
2005 Kicking King G IRE 7 0 11 82 177 160 4/1 F T J Taaffe
2004 Best Mate G IRE 9 175 12 81 178 168 8/11 F Henrietta Knight
2003 Best Mate G IRE 8 170 9 77 176 166 13/8 F Henrietta Knight
2002 Best Mate G IRE 7 169 6 78 172 165 7/1 3 Henrietta Knight
2000 Looks Like Trouble G IRE 8 170 10 47 173 170 9/2 2 Noel Chance
1999 See More Business G IRE 9 166 13 47 172 166 16/1 Paul Nicholls
1998 Cool Dawn G IRE 10 0 12 40 163 153 25/1 Robert Alner
1997 Mr Mulligan G IRE 9 0 7 78 170 163 20/1 Noel Chance
Yards with form – Paul Nicholls had the boss hand for quite a few years with Kauto Star and Denman in his arsenal. More recently Nicky
Henderson has come to the fore with 2 winners and 2 places in the last
8 years.
Market pointers – It is always tempting to try and find a Hollywood bet
in these big races – but this is one race where that policy has failed in recent times. 16 of the last 18 winners emerged from the front 3 in the
market – and only the 2014 winner, Lord Windermere and 2017 winner Sizing John went off bigger than 8s. By the time this race comes around
the market generally has a good handle on the participants.
I’ve studied the last 21 renewals of the Gold Cup and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live
contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I
discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent
renewals)
• All the last 21 winners had produced career-best chase RPR at 24f to 27f
• All 21 had been off the track at least 5 weeks (9 of the last 15 winners had been off the track for 62+ days)
• 20 had appeared at a previous Festival (15 had made the top 3 in a Festival race)
• 20 had raced at least 5 times over fences • 20 had won at least 3 races over fences
• 19 had raced in no more than 18 races in total • 19 appeared at Newbury, Cheltenham, Leopardstown or Kempton
last time out • 19 had raced in no more than 13 chases (8 of the last 11 winners
has raced in no more than 9)
• 19 were aged 7- to 9-years-old • 19 had run no more than 4 times over fences that season
• 19 contested a G1 or a G2 chase last time out • 19 had scored an RPR of at least 162 last time out
• 19 had form over the Cheltenham fences (17 having hit the top 3 in a chase at the track)
• 18 had contested a Grade 1 chase that season (14 hitting the front 2)
• 18 had run at least twice over fences that season • 18 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 150+
• 18 had scored a career-best chasing RPR of 169+ • 18 had won that season
• 17 had made the top 2 in an open Grade 1 chase over 24f to 27f • 16 had scored career-best rating in one of last 3 races over fences
• 16 of the 17 previous winners with an official rating going into the race were rated 166+
• 16 finished 1st or 2nd last time out • 15 were bred in Ireland
• 15 had a strike-rate of 40%+ over fences at trips of 24f to 27f • 14 of the last 15 winners had a strike-rate of 45%+ over fences
• 12 of the last 15 winners had already won an Open Grade 1 chase at some point in their chasing career (10 had won one of the last
two such races contested) • 7 of the last 12 winners had won a chase worth at least £70k that
term
The bigger the race the stronger the range of statistical credentials a
horse must possess. Winning Profiles don’t get any stronger than the one above. Horses that tick most boxes are the ones on which you should be
betting….
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