cheltenham festival day 1 analysis - narrowing …cheltenham festival day 1 analysis: trends &...

Cheltenham Festival Day 1

Analysis:

Trends & Pedigree

Analysing 5 races from day 1

of the 2016 Cheltenham

Festival from an alternative

viewpoint

Guide by Narrowing The Field

www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk

http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

15th March – 1.30

Cheltenham

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Winners Trends

Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Supreme

Novices’ Hurdle so that we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends

1 14/15 had at least 2 previous hurdle wins

2 13/15 had either won a bumper or had previously run on the flat

3 13/15 were either making their track debut or had previously won at the track

4 13/15 recorded a top 3 finish on their hurdling debut

5 13/15 recorded a top 3 finish on their NH debut

6 13/15 won last time out (last NH start)

7 13/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out

8 13/15 recorded an RPR of at least 140 on 1 of their last 3 starts

9 13/15 were aged 5 or 6

10 12/15 ran within past 45 days

11 12/15 had between 2 & 4 previous hurdle runs

12 12/15 were (IRE) OR (GB) bred

13 12/15 ran to an RPR of at least 137 Last Time Out

14 11/15 made their hurdle debut at a Grade 1 track

15 11/15 had a 100% W-P hurdle S/R

2016 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Supreme

Novices’ Hurdle to this year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tot

ALTIOR Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y 14/15

CHARBEL Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 13/15

BELLSHILL Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 12/15

BUVEUR D'AIR Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y N Y Y Y 12/15

TOMBSTONE N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 12/15

MISTER MIYAGI Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N Y Y N Y Y 10/15

NORTH HILL HARVEY N N Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 10/15

SUPASUNDAE N Y N Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y Y 10/15

WILLIAM H BONNEY Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y N N Y 10/15

HOLLY BUSH HENRY Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y N N Y Y N N 9/15

MIN Y N Y N N Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N 9/15

PENGLAI PAVILION Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y N N N N 9/15

PETIT MOUCHOIR N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N N N N 9/15

SILVER CONCORDE N Y Y Y Y N Y N N N Y Y N Y N 8/15

Trend Follower(s) – ALTIOR

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Winners Pedigree

Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Supreme

Novices’ Hurdle and applies them to this year’s entries.

*Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s

pedigree.

DP 14/15 had 8 points or more in their DP

12/15 had 14 points or more in their DP

DI 12/14 had a DI of 1.50 or below

11/14 had a DI of 1.13 or below

CD 12/14 had a CD of 0.34 or below

10/14 had a CD of 0.10 or below

DPA (7/15) - DQ - 3 / 20+ - 4 / PATB - 0

2016 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Entries: Dosage Applied

Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race –

Snug Fit

HOLLY BUSH HENRY 3-0-19-4-0 20+ 26 0.93 0.08

TOMBSTONE 1-1-8-2-0 / 12 1.00 0.08

NORTH HILL HARVEY 2-0-16-4-0 20+ 22 0.83 0.00

PENGLAI PAVILION 3-2-15-8-0 20+ 28 0.81 0.00

ALTIOR 2-3-8-6-1 DQ 20 0.82 -0.05

CHARBEL 4-2-17-5-4 DQ 32 0.83 -0.09

WILLIAM H BONNEY 3-0-4-5-2 / 14 0.56 -0.21

MIN 1-0-11-6-0 / 18 0.57 -0.22

MISTER MIYAGI 1-0-5-0-2 / 8 0.78 -0.25

Can’t be discounted

SUPASUNDAE 5-2-15-4-0 20+ 26 1.26 0.31

BELLSHILL 4-0-10-4-0 / 18 1.00 0.22

Not ideal

PETIT MOUCHOIR 0-1-3-0-0 / 4 1.67 0.25

Wide of the mark

BUVEUR D AIR 3-4-7-2-0 / 16 1.91 0.50

SILVER CONCORDE 1-6-6-1-0 / 14 2.50 0.50

2016 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Pace analysis

Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle –

This may be up to BELLSHILL to pull the field along although it would also be no

surprise to see MIN be right in the firing line as well.

Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race –

Running Style fr-3 / cp-6 / hu-6

Horse RS Running Style

ALTIOR CP/HU CP/HU

BELLSHILL CP/FR CP/FR

BUVEUR D AIR HU/CP HU/CP

CHARBEL CP CP

HOLLY BUSH HENRY HU/CP HU/CP

MIN CP CP

MISTER MIYAGI HU HU

NORTH HILL HARVEY HU/CP HU/CP

PENGLAI PAVILION CP CP

PETIT MOUCHOIR HU/CP HU/CP

SILVER CONCORDE CP/HU CP/HU

SUPASUNDAE CP/HU CP/HU

TOMBSTONE HU/CP HU/CP

WILLIAM H BONNEY HU/CP HU/CP

HU CP FR

ALTIOR BELLSHILL

BUVEUR D AIR

MISTER MIYAGI CHARBEL

HOLLY BUSH HENRY

NORTH HILL HARVEY MIN

PETIT MOUCHOIR PENGLAI PAVILION

SILVER CONCORDE

SUPASUNDAE

TOMBSTONE

WILLIAM H BONNEY

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trial Summary

Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 16)

ALTIOR -15/16

CHARBEL – 14/16

TOMBSTONE – 13/16

BELLSHILL -12/16

BUVEUR D’AIR – 12/16

Conclusion/Selection(s)

ALTIOR (N Henderson) – The course and distance winner has done

precious little wrong over hurdle to date and there is a real chance that

this larger field will bring about even more improvement from him. He’ll

be right at home on the drying ground, De Boinville gets on fantastically

with him (5/5), the form of his last race has worked out superbly and

there is a real chance he could shake-up the hot fav Min.

TOMBSTONE (G Elliott) – I rate this horse highly and I think he’s been

undone the last twice in Ireland by small field/tactical affairs. He’ll get

cover in a true gallop here and that will suit him much better and he’ll

be able to put his G1 form to good use in this contest.

Arkle Chase (Grade 1)

15th March – 2.10 Cheltenham

Arkle Chase: Winners Trends Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Arkle Chase

so that we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Arkle Chase Trends

1 14/15 no more than 18 previous NH starts

2 14/15 were rated 142+ over hurdles

3 13/15 had a 75%+ W-P chase S/R

4 13/15 1st or 2nd last time out

5 13/15 had previously recorded a top 2 finish at G1 or G2 level

6 13/15 aged 5, 6 or 7


8 13/15 had 3, 4 or 5 starts in current season

9 13/15 finished 1st or 2nd on their Chase debut

10 13/15 ran within past 66 days

11 12/15 finished in the top 2 on all chase starts to date

12 11/15 ran at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level last time out

13 11/15 had 3, 4 or 5 previous chase starts

2016 Arkle Chase Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Arkle Chase to

this year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Tot

DOUVAN Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13/13

VANITEUX Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13/13

SIZING JOHN Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 11/13

FOX NORTON Y Y N N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y 9/13

ASO Y N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y 8/13

BALTIMORE ROCK Y N Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y N N 8/13

THE GAME CHANGER N Y Y Y N Y Y N Y N Y N N 7/13

Trend Follower(s) – DOUVAN | VANITEUX

Arkle Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Arkle Chase

and applies them to this year’s entries.


pedigree.


DI 10/14 had a DI of 1.00 or above

0/14 had a DI above 2.33

CD 10/14 had a CD of 0.00 or above

9/14 had a CD of 0.21 or above

0/14 had a CD above 0.61

DPA (4/15) - DQ - 1 / 20+ - 2 / PATB - 1

2016 Arkle Chase: Dosage Applied


Snug Fit

ASO 4-3-15-0-0 20+ 22 1.93 0.50

SIZING JOHN 3-0-6-1-0 / 10 1.50 0.50


VANITEUX 1-0-6-1-0 / 8 1.00 0.13

Not ideal

BALTIMORE ROCK 1-6-6-1-0 / 14 2.50 0.50

THE GAME CHANGER 2-2-8-6-2 DQ 20 0.67 -0.20

DOUVAN 1-0-9-6-0 / 16 0.52 -0.25

FOX NORTON 2-1-3-0-0 / 6 3.00 0.83

Wide of the mark

N/A

2016 Arkle Chase: Pace analysis


DOUVAN will go from the front here but he’s unlikely to get a free shot at the lead

as any of ASO, FOX NORTON or SIZING JOHN could well decide to try and pressure

him on the front end.




ASO CP/FR CP/FR

BALTIMORE ROCK HU HU

DOUVAN FR/CP FR/CP

FOX NORTON CP/FR CP/FR

SIZING JOHN CP/FR CP/FR

THE GAME CHANGER CP/HU CP/HU

VANITEUX CP CP

HU CP FR

BALTIMORE ROCK ASO

DOUVAN

FOX NORTON

THE GAME CHANGER SIZING JOHN

VANITEUX

Arkle Chase Summary

Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 14)…

DOUVAN – 13/14

VANITEUX – 13/14

SIZING JOHN – 12/14


No Selection

I’ve no real desire to go against DOUVAN for the sake of it and it’s surely a case of

him just jumping round to win. VANITEUX & SIZING JOHN are not that far off on the

figures at all but it’s hard to get away from the fact that Vaniteux is 0/5 at the track

(yet to jumps the fences admittedly) and Sizing John has been beaten out of sight

the 4 times he has met Douvan. Hard to see anything but a win for Douvan here

and I’m happy to sit it out.

Ultima Handicap Chase

(Grade 3 Hcp)


Ultima Handicap Chase: Winners Trends

Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Ultima Hcp

Chase so that we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Ultima Handicap Chase Trends

1 15/15 were aged between 7 & 10

2 15/15 had an OR 146 or below


4 14/15 had 26 or less previous NH starts

5 14/15 had 2 or less previous handicap chase victories

6 14/15 carried 11-03 or less to victory

7 13/15 had previously won at 3m+

8 13/15 had 15 or less previous chase starts

9 12/15 had previously recorded a top 4 finish at the track

10 12/15 had between 2 & 5 runs in current season

11 12/15 had recorded a top 2 finish at class 2 level or better

12 12/15 were (IRE) bred

13 12/15 had between 2 & 4 previous chase victories (all had at least 2 chase wins)

14 12/15 had a top 3 finish last time out

2016 Ultima Handicap Chase Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Ultima

Handicap Chase to this year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Tot

INDIAN CASTLE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 13/14

MORNING ASSEMBLY Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/14

BEG TO DIFFER N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 12/14

AUDACIOUS PLAN Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N 12/14

ACCORDING TO TREV Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 12/14

CAROLES DESTRIER Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y 11/14

THEATRE GUIDE Y N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y 11/14

SPRING HEELED Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y N 11/14

ALGERNON PAZHAM Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N 11/14

DOING FINE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N 11/14

BAND OF BLOOD Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y N Y 11/14

HOLYWELL Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N 10/14

SOUTHFIELD THEATRE Y N Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N 10/14

UN TEMPS POUR TOUT Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N 10/14

REGAL ENCORE Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N Y Y N N 10/14

OUT SAM Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N N Y Y 10/14

SHANAHANS TURN Y N Y Y Y N N Y N Y Y Y Y N 9/14

THE YOUNG MASTER Y N Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N 9/14

FOX APPEAL Y N Y N Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y N 9/14

O MAONLAI Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N Y N N 9/14

BALLYKAN N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y N 9/14

DOUBLE ROSS Y N Y N Y N N N Y Y Y Y Y N 8/14

KRUZHLININ Y N Y Y N N Y Y N N Y N N Y 7/14

KATENKO Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N N N 6/14

Trend Follower(s) – INDIAN CASTLE

Ultima Handicap Chase: Winners Pedigree

Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Ultima

Handicap Chase and applies them to this year’s entries.


pedigree.


DI 13/13 had a CD of 0.64 or above



CD 12/13 had a CD of -0.15 or above



DPA (6/15) - DQ - 2 / 20+ - 3 / PATB - 1

2016 Ultima Handicap Chase: Dosage Applied


Snug Fit

ACCORDING TO TREV 5-1-6-4-0 / 16 1.29 0.44

THE YOUNG MASTER 3-0-9-2-0 / 14 1.15 0.29

SOUTHFIELD THEATRE 5-1-12-6-0 20+ 24 1.00 0.21

FOX APPEAL 3-1-8-4-0 / 16 1.00 0.19

INDIAN CASTLE 3-1-10-4-0 / 18 1.00 0.17

HOLYWELL 5-0-15-6-0 20+ 26 0.93 0.15

THEATRE GUIDE 4-0-6-6-0 / 16 0.78 0.13

UN TEMPS POUR TOUT 1-1-6-2-0 / 10 1.00 0.10

SPRING HEELED 2-1-7-4-0 / 14 0.87 0.07

CAROLES DESTRIER 3-0-12-5-0 20+ 20 0.82 0.05

KRUZHLININ 3-1-8-5-1 PATB 18 0.80 0.00


BAND OF BLOOD 6-3-8-5-0 20+ 22 1.44 0.45

BEG TO DIFFER 4-2-7-2-1 PATB 16 1.46 0.38

MORNING ASSEMBLY 4-3-4-0-3 / 14 1.80 0.36

SHANAHANS TURN 1-3-7-1-0 / 12 1.67 0.33

REGAL ENCORE 4-0-15-5-2 20+ 26 0.79 -0.04

OUT SAM 2-2-13-3-2 DQ 22 0.91 -0.05

Not ideal

KATENKO 0-0-2-0-0 / 2 1.00 0.00

AUDACIOUS PLAN 2-0-6-6-0 / 14 0.56 -0.14

ALGERNON PAZHAM 3-1-7-4-3 PATB 18 0.71 -0.17

Wide of the mark

O MAONLAI 2-0-8-8-2 20+ 20 0.43 -0.40

BALLYKAN 2-1-1-6-2 PATB 12 0.41 -0.42

DOING FINE 1-2-1-4-4 PATB 12 0.41 -0.67

DOUBLE ROSS 0-0-0-4-12 / 16 0.00 -1.75

2016 Ultima Handicap Chase: Pace analysis


SOUTHFIELD THEATRE, MORNING ASSEMBLY & THE YOUNG MASTER look the likeliest

pace-setters in this. The vast majority of the others will be sitting and waiting to

unleashes their challenges late in the day.




SHANAHANS TURN CP CP

HOLYWELL CP CP

CAROLES DESTRIER HU/CP HU/CP

SOUTHFIELD THEATRE FR/CP FR/CP

THEATRE GUIDE CP/HU CP/HU

MORNING ASSEMBLY CP/FR CP/FR

DOUBLE ROSS CP/HU CP/HU

THE YOUNG MASTER CP/FR CP/FR

KRUZHLININ CP/HU CP/HU

UN TEMPS POUR TOUT HU/CP HU/CP

FOX APPEAL CP/HU CP/HU

KATENKO HU/CP HU/CP

SPRING HEELED HU/CP HU/CP

BEG TO DIFFER CP CP

REGAL ENCORE CP/HU CP/HU

ALGERNON PAZHAM HU/CP HU/CP

OUT SAM CP CP

O MAONLAI HU/CP HU/CP

BALLYKAN CP CP

DOING FINE HU/CP HU/CP

INDIAN CASTLE CP/HU CP/HU

BAND OF BLOOD HU/CP HU/CP

AUDACIOUS PLAN CP CP

ACCORDING TO TREV CP/HU CP/HU

HU CP FR

BAND OF BLOOD SHANAHANS TURN

UN TEMPS POUR TOUT HOLYWELL

CAROLES DESTRIER SOUTHFIELD THEATRE

THEATRE GUIDE MORNING ASSEMBLY

DOUBLE ROSS THE YOUNG MASTER

KRUZHLININ

FOX APPEAL

KATENKO BEG TO DIFFER

SPRING HEELED OUT SAM

REGAL ENCORE

ALGERNON PAZHAM

O MAONLAI BALLYKAN

DOING FINE AUDACIOUS PLAN

INDIAN CASTLE

ACCORDING TO TREV

Ultima Handicap Chase Summary


INDIAN CASTLE – 14/15

ACCORDING TO TREV – 13/15

THEATRE GUIDE – 12/15

SPRING HEELED – 12/15

CAROLES DESTRIER – 12/15

BEG TO DIFFER – 12/15

MORNING ASSEMBLY – 12/15

AUDACIOUS PLAN – 12/15


INDIAN CASTLE (I Williams) – This 8yo ran a career best in this race last year off a 5lb higher mark and

he would have finished plenty closer had he not been hampered on the run-in as well. He’s

struggled a little on the deep winter ground so far this term but this better ground will suit and he

does seem to enjoy the Cheltenham fences (17045), springtime (March-May form of 1742P1) and

trips around the 3m0.5f – 3m1f mark (1414). Leighton Aspell gets the ride for the first time and he

seems to ride these fences well from limited recent opportunities (2 wins, 1 place from 7 rides) and

this one looks a player at lofty odds.

BEG TO DIFFER (JJ O’Neill) – Jonjo’s yard have been quite since the turn of the year (4/83) however

this lad was one of the 4 that managed to win in that spell, and win impressively, and I’m pretty sure

he’s still a fair bit ahead of his mark on OR 143. The horse has already jumped round these fences

safely and although he’s yet to race on anything other than Soft or Heavy I don’t see him having

any issue with the Good to Soft ground here. He’s progressive, runs well in the Feb/Mar period (111)

and although I’m a little concerned by Aidan Coleman’s poor festival record I do want to have this

horse on side at the prices.

SPRING HEELED (J Culloty) – He’s become a tad frustrating of late but this former festival winner is still

relatively lightly raced for a 9yo and is on a handy mark based on his best form. Decent ground

seems to be the key to him so this drying ground will be in his favour and I suspect Culloty has kept

him fresh specifically for this target.

Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)


Champion Hurdle: Winners Trends Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Champion

Hurdle so that we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Champion Hurdle Trends


2 15/15 did NOT run in a handicap last time out

3 14/15 won 1 of their last 3 starts

4 14/15 had a 60%+ W-P Hurdle S/R

5 14/15 had previously finished in the top 4 at the track

6 13/15 had their last run between 19 & 52 days previous

7 13/15 had 4+ previous hurdle victories

8 13/15 no more than 28 TOTAL career starts

9 13/15 had previously won at Grade 1 level

10 13/15 ran at previous seasons Festival AND finished in the top 4

11 13/15 had no more than 20 previous hurdle starts

12 12/15 had 3 or 4 starts in current season

13 12/15 were aged 6, 7 or 8

14 12/15 had an OR of 159+

15 12/15 ran in a graded race last time out

16 12/15 were (IRE) or (GB) bred

17 11/15 won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race in current season

18 11/15 won last time out (all finished in the top 4)

19 11/15 had previously run on the flat

2016 Champion Hurdle Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Champion

Hurdle to this year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Tot

NICHOLS CANYON Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 18/19

THE NEW ONE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 17/19

CAMPING GROUND Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y 15/19

SEMPRE MEDICI Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y 15/19

ANNIE POWER Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y N Y N 14/19

IDENTITY THIEF Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N 12/19

LIL ROCKERFELLER N Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N Y N N N Y N Y Y Y 11/19

MY TENT OR YOURS Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y N N Y Y Y N N N 11/19

PEACE AND CO Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N N N N N 11/19

TOP NOTCH N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N N N Y N 11/19

HARGAM Y Y N N Y N N Y N Y Y Y N N Y N N N Y 9/19

SIGN OF A VICTORY Y Y N N N N N Y N N Y Y Y N Y Y N N Y 9/19

Trend Follower(s) – NICHOLS CANYON

Champion Hurdle: Winners Pedigree Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Champion

Hurdle and applies them to this year’s entries.


pedigree.


13/15 had 14 points or more in their DP



2/14 had a DI below 0.56



2/14 had a CD below -0.22

DPA (9/15) - DQ - 2 / 20+ - 6 / PATB - 1

2016 Champion Hurdle: Dosage Applied


Snug Fit

LIL ROCKERFELLER 4-4-14-2-0 20+ 24 1.67 0.42

HARGAM 4-3-6-5-0 / 18 1.25 0.33

THE NEW ONE 4-2-8-4-0 / 18 1.25 0.33

IDENTITY THIEF 3-1-10-4-0 / 18 1.00 0.17

TOP NOTCH 2-1-9-4-0 / 16 0.88 0.06

SIGN OF A VICTORY 2-0-16-4-0 20+ 22 0.83 0.00

ANNIE POWER 2-0-8-6-0 / 16 0.60 -0.13


NICHOLS CANYON 1-0-14-10-1 20+ 26 0.44 -0.38

MY TENT OR YOURS 2-3-8-5-8 DQ 26 0.53 -0.54

SEMPRE MEDICI 8-1-10-3-0 20+ 22 1.75 0.64

Not ideal

PEACE AND CO 4-3-7-2-0 / 16 1.91 0.56

CAMPING GROUND 4-3-15-0-0 20+ 22 1.93 0.50

Wide of the mark

N/A

2016 Champion Hurdle: Pace analysis


Potential for there to be a decent pace on here IDENTITY THIEF, NICHOLS CANYON

& ANNIE POWER all potentials to be on the front end.




CAMPING GROUND CP CP

HARGAM HU/CP HU/CP

IDENTITY THIEF FR/CP FR/CP

LIL ROCKERFELLER CP CP

MY TENT OR YOURS HU/CP HU/CP

NICHOLS CANYON CP/FR CP/FR

PEACE AND CO HU HU

SEMPRE MEDICI CP/HU CP/HU

SIGN OF A VICTORY HU HU

THE NEW ONE CP CP

TOP NOTCH CP CP

ANNIE POWER FR/CP FR/CP

HU CP FR

CAMPING GROUND

HARGAM IDENTITY THIEF

PEACE AND CO LIL ROCKERFELLER

MY TENT OR YOURS NICHOLS CANYON

SIGN OF A VICTORY

SEMPRE MEDICI ANNIE POWER

THE NEW ONE

TOP NOTCH

Champion Hurdle Summary


THE NEW ONE – 18/20

NICHOLS CANYON – 18/20

ANNIE POWER – 15/20

SEMPRE MEDICI – 15/20

CAMPING GROUND – 15/20


NICHOLS CANYON (W Mullins) – There is no doubt this lad is a classy beast, six G1’s

in the bank tell us that, and it’s easy enough to forgive his run last time out where he

tried to go toe to toe with Faugheen after himself having taken part in a gruelling

contest over Xmas. He was beaten fav in the Neptune last term but he maybe just

didn’t quite stay that 21f trip and he did miss out the second last just as he was

starting to lay down a serious challenge. He’s a fast and fluent jumper when the

ground isn’t overly testing and if Townend can just sit on the tails of the leaders he

can kick on coming down the hill and use his 18f-20f stamina to beat the others off

coming back up the hill.

THE NEW ONE (N Twiston-Davies) – It’s not the easiest task to come back and try

and win the Champion Hurdle after previous ‘failed’ attempts but it can be done

(Hors La Loi III, Brave Inca & Punjabi in recent seasons) and I think it’s fair to say that

this renewal probably isn’t quite up to the previous two renewals he has taken part

in. He had a terrible preparation for the race last year but reports are that he’s

been markedly straighter this time round and it would be no shock should he be

bang there come the death.

Close Brothers Novices’ Hcp Chase

(Listed)


Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase:

Winners Trends Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 11 winners of the Close

Brothers Novices’ Chase so that we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Close Brothers Novices’ Chase Trends

1 11/11 yet to win at higher than Class 2 level

2 10/11 carried 11-07 or less

3 10/11 had between 3 & 6 chase starts

4 10/11 had 0-2 chase wins

5 10/11 no more than 17 NH starts

6 10/11 16-45 DSLR

7 10/11 wore no headgear (tt not included)

8 10/11 running from a higher OR than LTO

9 9/11 won 1 of last 3 starts

10 9/11 were aged 6 or 7

11 9/11 finished in top 2 last time out

12 9/11 had previously recorded a top 2 finish over 20f-21f

2016 Close Brothers Novices’ Chase Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Close Brothers

Novices’ Chase to this year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Tot

FOURTH ACT Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y 11/12

FIVE IN A ROW Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y 11/12

DOUBLE SHUFFLE Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y 10/12

DOMESDAY BOOK Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y N Y 9/12

BRIDGETS PET Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y N Y Y 9/12

ALOOMOMO Y N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 8/12

THOMAS BROWN Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y N Y 8/12

AMORE ALATO Y N Y Y Y Y Y N N Y N Y 8/12

JAVERT Y N Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y N 8/12

RACING PULSE Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N 8/12

WILLOWS SAVIOUR N N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y 8/12

REZORBI Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N N 8/12

KATGARY Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y Y N Y 8/12

MCKINLEY N N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y N Y 7/12

KILLALA QUAY N N N Y Y Y N Y Y N Y Y 7/12

ON TOUR Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N N 7/12

TWELVE ROSES Y N Y Y Y Y N N N N Y Y 7/12

BALLYALTON Y N Y Y Y Y N N N N N Y 6/12

BOUVREUIL Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y N N N 6/12

JAYO TIME Y Y N N N Y N N N Y Y Y 6/12

Trend Follower(s) – FIVE IN A ROW | FOURTH ACT

Close Brothers Novices’ Chase: Winners

Pedigree Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 11 winners of the Close Brothers

Novices’ Chase and applies them to this year’s entries.


pedigree.






DPA (6/11) - DQ - 1 / 20+ - 3 / PATB - 2

2016 Close Brothers Novices’ Chase: Dosage Applied


Snug Fit

KATGARY 2-1-7-6-0 / 16 0.68 -0.06

ON TOUR 3-1-8-7-1 DQ 20 0.67 -0.10

DOUBLE SHUFFLE 2-0-9-4-1 / 16 0.68 -0.13

AMORE ALATO 1-0-13-8-2 20+ 24 0.45 -0.42

FIVE IN A ROW 0-0-5-2-3 / 10 0.33 -0.80


FOURTH ACT 4-0-6-6-0 / 16 0.78 0.13

JAYO TIME 5-1-13-5-2 DQ 26 0.93 0.08

BOUVREUIL 3-1-8-6-0 / 18 0.80 0.06

JAVERT 3-1-14-6-0 20+ 24 0.85 0.04

KILLALA QUAY 0-1-2-0-5 / 8 0.33 -1.13

Not ideal

REZORBI 2-3-10-1-2 PATB 18 1.25 0.11

RACING PULSE 2-4-8-4-0 / 18 1.25 0.22

Wide of the mark

TWELVE ROSES 2-0-3-1-0 / 6 1.40 0.50

DOMESDAY BOOK 7-2-7-0-0 / 16 3.57 1.00

THOMAS BROWN 7-3-7-0-1 / 18 3.00 0.83

WILLOWS SAVIOUR 4-1-6-1-0 / 12 2.00 0.67

BRIDGETS PET 6-0-16-0-0 20+ 22 1.75 0.55

BALLYALTON 4-2-6-4-0 / 16 1.29 0.38

MCKINLEY 7-3-14-6-0 20+ 30 1.31 0.37

ALOOMOMO 2-2-6-2-0 / 12 1.40 0.33

2016 Close Brothers Novices’ Chase: Pace analysis


KILLALA QUAY should lead this field along from the front with the likes of WILLOWS

SAVIOUR, KATGARY & FIVE IN A ROW all sitting close on his tail.




BALLYALTON CP CP

ALOOMOMO CP/HU CP/HU

BRIDGETS PET HU/CP HU/CP

THOMAS BROWN CP CP

DOMESDAY BOOK CP CP

AMORE ALATO CP CP

MCKINLEY CP/HU CP/HU

JAVERT CP CP

KILLALA QUAY FR FR

RACING PULSE CP/HU CP/HU

ON TOUR CP/HU CP/HU

WILLOWS SAVIOUR CP/FR CP/FR

TWELVE ROSES CP CP

DOUBLE SHUFFLE CP CP

BOUVREUIL HU HU

JAYO TIME CP/HU CP/HU

REZORBI HU HU

KATGARY CP/FR CP/FR

FOURTH ACT CP/HU CP/HU

FIVE IN A ROW CP/FR CP/FR

HU CP FR

BRIDGETS PET BALLYALTON

ALOOMOMO KILLALA QUAY

THOMAS BROWN

DOMESDAY BOOK

BOUVREUIL AMORE ALATO

MCKINLEY JAVERT

RACING PULSE WILLOWS SAVIOUR

ON TOUR TWELVE ROSES

REZORBI DOUBLE SHUFFLE KATGARY

JAYO TIME

FOURTH ACT FIVE IN A ROW

Close Brothers Novices’ Chase Summary


FIVE IN A ROW – 12/13

DOUBLE SHUFFLE – 11/13

FOURTH ACT – 11/13

KATGARY – 9/13

AMORE ALATO – 9/13

DOMESDAY BOOK – 9/13

BRIDGETS PET – 9/13


DOUBLE SHUFFLE (T George) – This one has been on my radar for spring handicaps

since running 11L 4th to More Of That over C&D in November so I’m delighted he

comes out top of the figures here. He also ran an eye-catching race over the

Cheltenham fences on seasonal debut as well, just finding the race fit Art

Mauresque too strong for him at the finish. He’s clearly been saved for this since

opening his chase account at Ludlow in December and he looks to have an

excellent chance in this with the drying ground sure to suit and improvement highly

likely from OR 138.

FIVE IN A ROW (B Ellison) – This 8yo sneaks in at the foot of the weights and comes

here in bouncing form having won his last two starts, recording career best figures

both times. He has strong form over 2m3f-2m4f (21311), Danny Cook gets on well

with him (121) and he handles large fields well (11510). He looks to have a good

chance of outrunning his odds.

FOURTH ACT (C Tizzard) – I’m far from convinced these will prove to be the horse’s

ideal conditions, however, he’s lightly enough raced for me to risk it and the 28-1

odds more than factor in my concerns. It maybe just took a while for the penny to

fully drop for him and his win last time suggested he’s now getting the hang of

things (a big career best) and he definitely rates as a progressive type. The booking

of Tom Scu also catches the eye as he has a 35% strike-rate for the yard in the past

two years from a book of only 23 rides.

Please undertake sensible betting practices at all times.

Visit www.gambleaware.co.uk to find out more about gambling.

Please note that past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance.

www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk

http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/

http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/

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